Oops. I missed it. I'ma still need you to explain more though.
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
Why?
So if we kill more than 2 people, then we are doing so without flip info AND if we whiff it’s an instant loss.
Why is it an instant loss?
Hypothetical example: players are ABCDEFGH. A and B are scum.
ABC fire at DEF. DEF for whatever reason don't do anything about it. 3 players dead, all town.
Then GH fire at AB. Both scum dead, we win.
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Hoooold up.
Why are you assuming scum gets a night kill?
I assumed scum gets a night kill as well, I find it odd u only called out hadow for it,
also ur scenario is completely revolved around us shooting mafia the next phase which that requires alot of certainity.
And sure, the scenario you mentioned could happen, but killing 5 players without a single flip is a terrible idea.
Yeah killing 5 might be a bad idea, but it looks like you're trying to do a comprehensive "game theory" analysis and basing it on faulty assumptions, or not covering all the scenarios.
The question is whether you're just town taking shortcuts in your reasoning or you're scum intentionally being misleading.
DoTA, why those two groupings? What distinguishes you/shadow/bur vs. me/shin/vezok?
Why risk 3, when Shadow's plan/theory works just as well without risking the cost of the game?
Yeah I wasn't in the previous lights out game, so referencing it looks like a giant hole in your math. Fine. It looks like the NK was actually messing up all of my math, so more of your assumptions work out than I expected.
However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
What makes u so sure though that the kills with be aimed in a wrong setting, shadow was saved from 1 kill which would have been the 1st mafia kill. In that situation I would totally use my shot but thats just me.
D_V and I were both working on his setup (Arkham). But enough OoG.
On the game, I don't like that Vezok said that thing putting stuff out of his hands, though I do like that he saved Shadow. At the same time, there's some wine there given that it's Day 1.
I'm super suspicious of Kami right now too.
Shadow is probably town?
Since I know I'm town and Vezok's statement is dumb, and I'm not seeing any other scumreads or action...
Ninja Strike: KamikazeArchon
If it was any other player except osie, I would have been convinced this is a scum post. Right now osie just dropped a little in my read order.
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D_V and I were both working on his setup (Arkham). But enough OoG.
On the game, I don't like that Vezok said that thing putting stuff out of his hands, though I do like that he saved Shadow. At the same time, there's some wine there given that it's Day 1.
I'm super suspicious of Kami right now too.
Shadow is probably town?
Since I know I'm town and Vezok's statement is dumb, and I'm not seeing any other scumreads or action...
Ninja Strike: KamikazeArchon
If it was any other player except osie, I would have been convinced this is a scum post. Right now osie just dropped a little in my read order.
Explain this to me, since the only other mention of Osie in all 7 of your posts was as part of "the rest" on your reads list. Why does he get a pass? And where is he now on your T/S?
If we hit scum day 1, we can kill only one person tomorrow and end up in LyLo in worst case scenario.
If we don't hit scum today, we can use everything tomorrow.
If we hit one scum today then any kill we make tomorrow that doesn’t end the game is confirmed town, no reason to go to night at that point.@Kami: Do you think Osie is town? If no one saves you, do you plan to strike at someone?
@shadow. Assuming we hit one svum today and we are down to 5 tomorrow.
A new day removes an unconfirmed by the night kill and we end in 3 people LyLo. I'm not really sure what option is better as both have cons and advantages. I feel like town having more scalpels is better, but I'm not sure.
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@shadow. Assuming we hit one svum today and we are down to 5 tomorrow.
A new day removes an unconfirmed by the night kill and we end in 3 people LyLo. I'm not really sure what option is better as both have cons and advantages. I feel like town having more scalpels is better, but I'm not sure.
basically it’s the choice between town publicly choosing each kill or scum getting a second night kill to murder the most likely townie. Since in that scenario (one scum dead) we don’t need flips anyway, Letting scum have the free kill is sub optimal.
I hear you, but I can think of different situations were scum eliminating an unknown is better. See how scum usually like MyLo more than LyLo as there are more lynch options.
I think this should be discussed the next day when we have all variables.
Is anyone going to deflect osies scalpel or we just let KA die?
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I hear you, but I can think of different situations were scum eliminating an unknown is better. See how scum usually like MyLo more than LyLo as there are more lynch options.
I think this should be discussed the next day when we have all variables.
Is anyone going to deflect osies scalpel or we just let KA die?
Fair enough, this of course assumes we’re both alive tomorrow.
As a reminder, please attempt to post at least once every 24 (real life) hours; you must have at least five posts by the end of the Day (which is in just over 3 days).
Dr. McNinja garrotes a clone with his stethoscope, then ducks as two clones, who think of themselves as McFarmer and The Ninja That Time Forgot, attack from either side and end up punching through each other's chest cavities.
I'm going to resist the urge to counterkill for now. Tell me how you arrived at your suspicion.
Well, shoot. I was concerned about an agenda that I was paranoid seeing in your posts. But now that I look back I'm not seeing it. Balls. You're probably town. Can someone deflect this?
Some thoughts. This is semi-stream of consciousness.
Scum don't actually care much about killing us off during the Day. They have the NK for that. The longer the game goes, the more scumsided it is, because the NK to town-power ratio increases. Therefore scum are fine with throwing away their scalpels during the day. Sure, they'll take targets of opportunity when they can - but it's not their top priority.
Therefore it makes sense, as scum, to throw away scalpels fairly lightly. They can fire at targets they don't think are certain to die just to earn town cred. They can even protect townies for the same reason. The only reason to hold on to scalpels is to protect the other scum, but that's somewhat dangerous for them because they have to do it organically or risk creating a link. Scum actually would love to see no one die toDay, for the same reason that scum normally love to see no-lynches.
With that in mind, who is exhibiting behavior like that? I think osie is. I dislike jumping immediately on someone coming at me, but I have been scanning my own feelings to see if this is just instinctive OMGUS, and I don't think it is.
1. Strikes at me with no reasoning
2. Immediately backs off and requests someone else protect me
3. Gives a complete T/S list that is supposed to include a solve, still with no reasoning - and with me as top town.
2 in particular seems like it's intended to create deniability when I flip town (assuming no one protects me). It gives a shield of "oh I messed up but I already acknowledged that", while spreading the responsibility around - "anyone could have deflected it, it wasn't just my choice."
In summary, I'm planning to strike at Osie. I have a couple of hours left and I'll see if anyone has useful input before I do so.
Hm. Would you press a button that gave you a 50/50 chance of guaranteeing your team wins/loses the game?
No...are you implying that you think that’s what I’m doing?
Not implying anything, trying to figure out thought process. You see, I would probably press that button. And I have played with players who would press it without hesitation.
Would you press the button if it was 55/45 for a win?
May i ask whats the point of these percentile based questions? Do you think shadow is scum or something else entirely?
On the other hand, each post Kami writes makes me feel worse and worse about him.
He obviously hasn't read the game or the rules and if you ISO him, it's just a bunch of fluff posts and posts about mechanics.
I don't really see the scumhunting anywhere.
Idk how I feel about shadow at the moment. I have a good gut feeling about him, but I'm still wary of him and his cute wolf-y face.
D_V needs to post.
Osie needs to talk about something else than Raging Kavu.
I'll be back soon, after I finish doing the model answers for my students' homework.
Honestly ive just had a busier week than i suspected is all but i have about 8 hours of freedom so ill use the most of it!! AS for Kami not reading the game can come from either alignment, what sticks out to you that makes u feel really bad about him tahts not something wifom.
Yeah I wasn't in the previous lights out game, so referencing it looks like a giant hole in your math. Fine. It looks like the NK was actually messing up all of my math, so more of your assumptions work out than I expected.
However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
No, I don’t. I put my thoughts out there and then end the day. What if my third scum read looks much better on seeing one of the other flips? What if the scum go for the WIFOM kill? What if I’m just wrong and have now caused a loss because I was too sure of myself? (I’ve done this before, to glorious embarrassment)
I hahve to agree with shadow on this as well, honestly if u pushed for more than 2 kills i would have aimmed my gun at you with extreme prejjudice. I mean regardless i would prob still end up shooting, i agree nonetheless about your reasoning I why we shouldnt do it though.
Question!!
If your not sure about your scum read how would flips change it?
I said I can't read osie, but I've played a game with him before and I know he is really brash and impulsive.
If it was anyone else doing this, they would automatically jump to the top of the scum list, but for osie I can't be that sure.
Right now he is between "the rest" and Shinichi or maybe at the same level as Shinichi. Please note that these are early reads and not set in stone.
Osie isnt impuulsive i would go as far to say he ahs great critical thinking skills and is really good at strategy talk. Ill agree a little ob the brash part though, i dont see why this makes him town or een gives him a pass. Also ur basing his meta off of 1 game and using it as a solid reference to read into hia actions *slap face*.
D_V and I were both working on his setup (Arkham). But enough OoG.
On the game, I don't like that Vezok said that thing putting stuff out of his hands, though I do like that he saved Shadow. At the same time, there's some wine there given that it's Day 1.
I'm super suspicious of Kami right now too.
Shadow is probably town?
Since I know I'm town and Vezok's statement is dumb, and I'm not seeing any other scumreads or action...
Ninja Strike: KamikazeArchon
If it was any other player except osie, I would have been convinced this is a scum post. Right now osie just dropped a little in my read order.
So if u shoot at all, we should just assume your town is what your asking of us?
Also why is this post only ok cause its from OSie?
Shinichi is flailing a little on the edges and pushing ideas but not following through. I have seen Shinichi play more often than everyone else combined so make of that what you will.
Vezok is taking the math seriously and the flat protect on shadow looks good.
Bur is active and thinking about things, but I don't know Bur as well so I could still be fooled there.
Shadow is solvey as well but Shadow is the best as scum so again could still be fooled.
Some thoughts. This is semi-stream of consciousness.
Scum don't actually care much about killing us off during the Day. They have the NK for that. The longer the game goes, the more scumsided it is, because the NK to town-power ratio increases. Therefore scum are fine with throwing away their scalpels during the day. Sure, they'll take targets of opportunity when they can - but it's not their top priority.
Therefore it makes sense, as scum, to throw away scalpels fairly lightly. They can fire at targets they don't think are certain to die just to earn town cred. They can even protect townies for the same reason. The only reason to hold on to scalpels is to protect the other scum, but that's somewhat dangerous for them because they have to do it organically or risk creating a link. Scum actually would love to see no one die toDay, for the same reason that scum normally love to see no-lynches.
With that in mind, who is exhibiting behavior like that? I think osie is. I dislike jumping immediately on someone coming at me, but I have been scanning my own feelings to see if this is just instinctive OMGUS, and I don't think it is.
1. Strikes at me with no reasoning
2. Immediately backs off and requests someone else protect me
3. Gives a complete T/S list that is supposed to include a solve, still with no reasoning - and with me as top town.
2 in particular seems like it's intended to create deniability when I flip town (assuming no one protects me). It gives a shield of "oh I messed up but I already acknowledged that", while spreading the responsibility around - "anyone could have deflected it, it wasn't just my choice."
In summary, I'm planning to strike at Osie. I have a couple of hours left and I'll see if anyone has useful input before I do so.
This is reasonable and I expected that when I realized I was wrong. But it shouldn't matter if my list is right; I can die to clarify that POE.
@shadow. Assuming we hit one svum today and we are down to 5 tomorrow.
A new day removes an unconfirmed by the night kill and we end in 3 people LyLo. I'm not really sure what option is better as both have cons and advantages. I feel like town having more scalpels is better, but I'm not sure.
basically it’s the choice between town publicly choosing each kill or scum getting a second night kill to murder the most likely townie. Since in that scenario (one scum dead) we don’t need flips anyway, Letting scum have the free kill is sub optimal.
How would we know if a scum aligned player is the one that caused a town death? I can most certainly shoot any player in this setup since the odds of hitting scum compared to the odds of hitting town are little different. Would that make me scum if I hit town?
@shadow. Assuming we hit one svum today and we are down to 5 tomorrow.
A new day removes an unconfirmed by the night kill and we end in 3 people LyLo. I'm not really sure what option is better as both have cons and advantages. I feel like town having more scalpels is better, but I'm not sure.
If we were to use our scalpels to hastly in that situation or choose wrong the game would easily be put in mafia favor.
Would you press the button if it was 55/45 for a win?
I wouldn’t press the button regardless of the odds, it is no longer a game at that point but a die roll.
A lot of games involve die rolls.
@Kami: Do you think Osie is town? If no one saves you, do you plan to strike at someone?
Not going to answer the first part until osie answers me.
To the second, yes.
The point isnt the msot games involve dies rolls, town shouldnt be playing with Odds that arent in their favor or at the least tied with scum that risk aint worth it.
Feel like if your town the answer should be simple
I’m good with Kami and Osie being dead today I think. I’m kind of almost okay with someone saving Kami, but I feel like having his flip will be helpful in the long run so we don’t level ourselves tomorrow.
I’m good with Kami and Osie being dead today I think. I’m kind of almost okay with someone saving Kami, but I feel like having his flip will be helpful in the long run so we don’t level ourselves tomorrow.
Hmm.
If I'm right:
Kami + Osie + (NK) = 3 townflips
That leaves 3 town to 2 scum. Both scum try to kill optimally, and have the nightkill. If town do 1 kill, and 2 deflects, then they have a 50/50 of killing town assuming they only deflect scum. Which sucks, especially since that's quite the assumption.
So can we try to actually kill at least one scum today instead (two if possible)?
Apparently, even though I have my mtgs timezone set to UTC-7 Mountain Time, when I hover over a post's timestamp, the time still shows up an hour later than it really is. And changing timezones in my preferences doesn't impact that?(???)
I'm about to leave the computer and can't guarantee I'll be on in 2 hours... so it's stabbing time.
Gut shot thoughts:
Tinfoil vezok/osie. Vezok has been making a big deal of osie being unreadable, which could be true... or could be cover.
Osie's reaction to my claiming counterkill is null - both good town and good scum would respond in that way. Just means Osie isn't bad scum.
Shinichi is too superficial, hence the strike. Might also give us info about Osie.
I assumed scum gets a night kill as well, I find it odd u only called out hadow for it,
also ur scenario is completely revolved around us shooting mafia the next phase which that requires alot of certainity.
Why risk 3, when Shadow's plan/theory works just as well without risking the cost of the game?
What makes u so sure though that the kills with be aimed in a wrong setting, shadow was saved from 1 kill which would have been the 1st mafia kill. In that situation I would totally use my shot but thats just me.
If we hit scum day 1, we can kill only one person tomorrow and end up in LyLo in worst case scenario.
If we don't hit scum today, we can use everything tomorrow.
If I'm town, I'd press it every game. If I'm scum, I'd pass.
If it was any other player except osie, I would have been convinced this is a scum post. Right now osie just dropped a little in my read order.
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Apart from making a non-game related post when you quoted the raging kavu post Osie made.
If it was anyone else doing this, they would automatically jump to the top of the scum list, but for osie I can't be that sure.
Right now he is between "the rest" and Shinichi or maybe at the same level as Shinichi. Please note that these are early reads and not set in stone.
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@Kami: Do you think Osie is town? If no one saves you, do you plan to strike at someone?
A new day removes an unconfirmed by the night kill and we end in 3 people LyLo. I'm not really sure what option is better as both have cons and advantages. I feel like town having more scalpels is better, but I'm not sure.
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Check out the Shop Thread
I think this should be discussed the next day when we have all variables.
Is anyone going to deflect osies scalpel or we just let KA die?
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
End of Day: Saturday, March 24th, 1724 EDT, (Countdown)
Note: I'm creating timers, but made the location Cumberland, MD (because where else would this take place, duh), so times have been switched to EDT.
Ninja Strike Tracker:
shadowlancerx (0) - Struck by DoTArchon, Deflected by vezokpiraka.
KamikaziArchon (1) - Struck by osieorb18. Unless deflected before then, KamikaziArchon will die on Wednesday, March 21st, at 1910 EDT, Countdown: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20180321T2110&p0=3391&msg=D1: KamikaziArchon's Demise by osieorb18's Strike&font=cursive&csz=1
Ok, well, for some reason I can't make that second countdown format the way I want. Grr.
Players Still Holding Scalpels:
1. Bur
2. D_V
3. KamikaziArchon
4. shadowlancerx
5. Shinichi
As a reminder, please attempt to post at least once every 24 (real life) hours; you must have at least five posts by the end of the Day (which is in just over 3 days).
=====================================================================
Dr. McNinja garrotes a clone with his stethoscope, then ducks as two clones, who think of themselves as McFarmer and The Ninja That Time Forgot, attack from either side and end up punching through each other's chest cavities.
I'll be back in a few hours after class is done.
Basic jist of my post was Dota is suspicious.
Not going to answer the first part until osie answers me.
To the second, yes.
Well, shoot. I was concerned about an agenda that I was paranoid seeing in your posts. But now that I look back I'm not seeing it. Balls. You're probably town. Can someone deflect this?
Osie
Town:
Kamikaze
Vezok
Slight Town:
Bur
Shadow
Neutral:
DV
Slight Scum:
DoTArchon
Scum:
Shinichi
I'm Merlin. Go.
Surprisingly, so is Osie now?
Scum don't actually care much about killing us off during the Day. They have the NK for that. The longer the game goes, the more scumsided it is, because the NK to town-power ratio increases. Therefore scum are fine with throwing away their scalpels during the day. Sure, they'll take targets of opportunity when they can - but it's not their top priority.
Therefore it makes sense, as scum, to throw away scalpels fairly lightly. They can fire at targets they don't think are certain to die just to earn town cred. They can even protect townies for the same reason. The only reason to hold on to scalpels is to protect the other scum, but that's somewhat dangerous for them because they have to do it organically or risk creating a link. Scum actually would love to see no one die toDay, for the same reason that scum normally love to see no-lynches.
With that in mind, who is exhibiting behavior like that? I think osie is. I dislike jumping immediately on someone coming at me, but I have been scanning my own feelings to see if this is just instinctive OMGUS, and I don't think it is.
1. Strikes at me with no reasoning
2. Immediately backs off and requests someone else protect me
3. Gives a complete T/S list that is supposed to include a solve, still with no reasoning - and with me as top town.
2 in particular seems like it's intended to create deniability when I flip town (assuming no one protects me). It gives a shield of "oh I messed up but I already acknowledged that", while spreading the responsibility around - "anyone could have deflected it, it wasn't just my choice."
In summary, I'm planning to strike at Osie. I have a couple of hours left and I'll see if anyone has useful input before I do so.
May i ask whats the point of these percentile based questions? Do you think shadow is scum or something else entirely?
Honestly ive just had a busier week than i suspected is all but i have about 8 hours of freedom so ill use the most of it!! AS for Kami not reading the game can come from either alignment, what sticks out to you that makes u feel really bad about him tahts not something wifom.
Why take a risk even if the path requires less work?
I hahve to agree with shadow on this as well, honestly if u pushed for more than 2 kills i would have aimmed my gun at you with extreme prejjudice. I mean regardless i would prob still end up shooting, i agree nonetheless about your reasoning I why we shouldnt do it though.
Question!!
If your not sure about your scum read how would flips change it?
what does counterkilling solve?
What did you get from this?
Osie isnt impuulsive i would go as far to say he ahs great critical thinking skills and is really good at strategy talk. Ill agree a little ob the brash part though, i dont see why this makes him town or een gives him a pass. Also ur basing his meta off of 1 game and using it as a solid reference to read into hia actions *slap face*.
So if u shoot at all, we should just assume your town is what your asking of us?
Also why is this post only ok cause its from OSie?
You're analyzing the game, figuring motivations.
Shinichi is flailing a little on the edges and pushing ideas but not following through. I have seen Shinichi play more often than everyone else combined so make of that what you will.
Vezok is taking the math seriously and the flat protect on shadow looks good.
Bur is active and thinking about things, but I don't know Bur as well so I could still be fooled there.
Shadow is solvey as well but Shadow is the best as scum so again could still be fooled.
DoTA seems to be spitting words at the screen.
DV isn't doing anything.
Nah, I am impulsive at times.
This is reasonable and I expected that when I realized I was wrong. But it shouldn't matter if my list is right; I can die to clarify that POE.
How would we know if a scum aligned player is the one that caused a town death? I can most certainly shoot any player in this setup since the odds of hitting scum compared to the odds of hitting town are little different. Would that make me scum if I hit town?
If we were to use our scalpels to hastly in that situation or choose wrong the game would easily be put in mafia favor.
@ Vezo
How much time do we have to deflect that kill?
U havent mentioned anything about ur reads on people but then post this list where i am at the bottom why?
The point isnt the msot games involve dies rolls, town shouldnt be playing with Odds that arent in their favor or at the least tied with scum that risk aint worth it.
Feel like if your town the answer should be simple
Explain the interaction then
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Oh so you do have a pulse in regards to me.
It takes a while to form reads, as much as I would love to say I can always have a perfect readlist page 1.
I explained my reads though.
Also, here's another thing: Why are you questioning me in context of yourself? That looks super bad for you.
Hmm. Osie or shinichi. Possibly both? Yeah, it's possible.
Hard bussing in this setup is not worth the risk-reward. If someone is doing that then they are actively bad at scum and should be put in their place.
EBWODP: (Hard bussing day 1 that is)
But you're not hard bussing. Hard bussing would be pointing a kill at Shinichi.
No, that would be gamethrowing.
Hmm.
If I'm right:
Kami + Osie + (NK) = 3 townflips
That leaves 3 town to 2 scum. Both scum try to kill optimally, and have the nightkill. If town do 1 kill, and 2 deflects, then they have a 50/50 of killing town assuming they only deflect scum. Which sucks, especially since that's quite the assumption.
So can we try to actually kill at least one scum today instead (two if possible)?
Apparently, even though I have my mtgs timezone set to UTC-7 Mountain Time, when I hover over a post's timestamp, the time still shows up an hour later than it really is. And changing timezones in my preferences doesn't impact that?(???)
Regardless, the countdown timer in my last post (https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20180321T2110&p0=3391&msg=D1: KamikaziArchon's Demise by osieorb18's Strike&font=cursive&csz=1) stands, even though it's a little longer than the 24 hours noted in the rules.
Unless deflected, Kami will perish ~2 hours and 20 minutes from this post. Do the math yourself, as apparently I cannot.
My apologies for any confusion.
Ninja Strike: Shinichi
I'm about to leave the computer and can't guarantee I'll be on in 2 hours... so it's stabbing time.
Gut shot thoughts:
Tinfoil vezok/osie. Vezok has been making a big deal of osie being unreadable, which could be true... or could be cover.
Osie's reaction to my claiming counterkill is null - both good town and good scum would respond in that way. Just means Osie isn't bad scum.
Shinichi is too superficial, hence the strike. Might also give us info about Osie.
Good luck folks!
I unfortunately will not be online when the strike timer finishes.
@Kami: If no one deflects the strike against you, please do not post after the Strike timer ends.
Actually in zero escape mafia u were very impulsive but that was also an intense game
How am i flailing?
Shadow has fooled me twice so shame on me it it happens a 3rd time,.
I feel like vezok is trying very hard to prove that 2+ kills is a good thingy, and honetly i dont like that
Just around the edges. You seem like you're being too cautious, and like you're trying to seem active over necessarily hunting.
It's down to:
Bur
D_V
shadowlancerx
Shinichi
And at least 1 of those isn't likely, if not 2.