If someone could explain the grid to me, does that mean there are actually 3 scum? Because of the mafia goon in the grid? I'm confused as OP states there are 2 Mafia? Please enlighten me.
Hah wow, okay Ruma is probably town? Like, he could maybe have been coached into this, but like...who would think of it?
Iunno, I think I need to probably reassess some things with that in consideration.
This means there is either a mafia tracker and a town bulletproof or just the jailkeeper.
There aren’t any spots on the board that are bullet proof. I think you actually made this same mistake in pirates with your own role, because body guard is possible, and that is very different from bulletproof.
I think the game is vanilla at this point. I know the odds are 50/50 and I have no real reason to think one way or the other, just what I think.
I don't know for sure why massclaiming is a meta here but it's too early for a bodyguard to claim if there is one. They should still claim if they're about to be lynched of course
You talk about confidence being wolfy Emcee, but don't see how your confidence that I am scum is suspicious?
confidence that someone is town
I'm leery of statements like "ok so-and-so is definitely town" but then they just drop it without providing a reason why that person is definitely town.
I mean I've town read some people for some weird stuff (like going on a tangent about a rescue rabbit they were keeping (this was in a mafiauniverse championships game too lol), but the reasoning was there. If you don't have a reason someone is town, but you know they're town, that means you have game information that the rest of us don't. Like a wolf would.
Calling someone "definitely a wolf" (which I haven't done, but I do think there's definitely one or two wolves between you shadow and vezok) is a bit different, hopefully for obvious reasons.
But yeah, confidence being wolfy is totally exactly what I said and didn't go any deeper than that /s
me being an "open book" is such a legitimate reason to town read me that I have a hard time thinking cantrip is a wolf here- he wouldn't know that people say that exact same thing often, so it's a geniune read. Town needs to make genuine reads; mafia doesn't.
it sucks that two of my town reads are dead already, that doesn't help poe at all
I sorta rushed over all the stuff I missed and didn't get any clean reads out of it, but vezok started acting scummy under pressure and his pocket on me makes me nervous since his comment about lynching osie looked to me like A) he felt like he was under more pressure than he really was and B) he wanted some extra voting power on his side to help win in lylo
You talk about confidence being wolfy Emcee, but don't see how your confidence that I am scum is suspicious?
confidence that someone is town
I'm leery of statements like "ok so-and-so is definitely town" but then they just drop it without providing a reason why that person is definitely town.
I mean I've town read some people for some weird stuff (like going on a tangent about a rescue rabbit they were keeping (this was in a mafiauniverse championships game too lol), but the reasoning was there. If you don't have a reason someone is town, but you know they're town, that means you have game information that the rest of us don't. Like a wolf would.
Calling someone "definitely a wolf" (which I haven't done, but I do think there's definitely one or two wolves between you shadow and vezok) is a bit different, hopefully for obvious reasons.
But yeah, confidence being wolfy is totally exactly what I said and didn't go any deeper than that /s
You talk about confidence being wolfy Emcee, but don't see how your confidence that I am scum is suspicious?
confidence that someone is town
I'm leery of statements like "ok so-and-so is definitely town" but then they just drop it without providing a reason why that person is definitely town.
I mean I've town read some people for some weird stuff (like going on a tangent about a rescue rabbit they were keeping (this was in a mafiauniverse championships game too lol), but the reasoning was there. If you don't have a reason someone is town, but you know they're town, that means you have game information that the rest of us don't. Like a wolf would.
Calling someone "definitely a wolf" (which I haven't done, but I do think there's definitely one or two wolves between you shadow and vezok) is a bit different, hopefully for obvious reasons.
But yeah, confidence being wolfy is totally exactly what I said and didn't go any deeper than that /s
\
I like this post. Hmmm.
Let's for a minute, get you thinking I am town. What does this do to your reads?
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
most obviously if you are town it makes vezok look scummier by poe in my group of 3
doesn't do a ton to shadow since their weaksauce town read of you isn't contingent on you being their partner
hmm actually they did vote for you but it wasn't very strong or didn't feel very legitimate
I don't think that matters though
Your vote for anak doesn't gain any credence though your reasoning for the anak vote would. I just wouldn't agree with it
I would have to reread to see specifically how it changes more
most obviously if you are town it makes vezok look scummier by poe in my group of 3
doesn't do a ton to shadow since their weaksauce town read of you isn't contingent on you being their partner
hmm actually they did vote for you but it wasn't very strong or didn't feel very legitimate
I don't think that matters though
Your vote for anak doesn't gain any credence though your reasoning for the anak vote would. I just wouldn't agree with it
I would have to reread to see specifically how it changes more
Vote on anak was not a good decision on my part, I know. Going to re-read and see if my thought process was actually right. I don't think it is, though.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
I'm home now and will go back through the thread. My only semi-solid reads right now are Ruma and shadow as town, but as my record demonstrates I'm not even sure about them now.
I need to reread Cantripmancer as it was tom's biggest scum read and I can't think right now of anyone who would want him dead.
This is what I picked up from the thread. I'll make a separate post giving just the highlights.
Anak is not scum with Mikey. #50
Rereading mikey just reinforces my earlier read that he is town. I can't see post #64 coming from scum. Either he is one of the greatest scum players ever or he is simply town.
BlueSky's 38 is strange. Him going after Mikey and ignoring Tom doing the same thing raised an eyebrow, but then he just sorta brushes it off like "yeah, so?" when Tom calls him on it, so... I guess that could be scum!Tom getting in a public reprimand on scum!BlueSky, but that doesn't really seem like scum!Tom's play, either. Probably a town/town interaction.
And can we either refer to him as DawningBlueSky/BlueSky OR Phraze (preferably BlueSky) to reduce confusion?
If Cantrip is scum there is a pretty big chance he is scum with Phraze. Also from the same post a Cantrip - Anak scum team is less plausible.
Now that tom is confirmed town, wouldn't you be more suspicious of DBS now? Please answer this.
Hey everyone, I dislike self-meta as an alignment tell even more than I dislike meta-only reads so as much as Phraze or someone else might push you to provide self-meta, I'm probably never going to townread you based on self-meta.
how do you intend to dive into someone's mindset then? different players will execute different strategies according to their playstyles, and if you don't know what their playstyles are like you will be reading off your left foot. it isn't an alignment tell, but it is informative and shouldn't be ignored.
on a side note, I have Tom, Emcee, and maybe you for scum. Tom is looking for faults rather than the reasons behind an action, Emcee switched votes without a reasonable followup(whether in questions or not), and you seem too judgemental and/or well-established to be town.
This post looks slightly bad in retrospect as it names two people who flipped town as scum. The reasons given aren't great either, although the more I Phraze's post, the more I realise I can't read her at all.
Noting 2 things here- DBS' blind adherence to meta (which still annoys me) as seen by "Emcee switched votes without a reasonable followup" and vezok's apparent inability to read anything from DBS' post here. This makes me think a vezok/DBS partnership is possible.
#145; Is being bad at maths really an indicator? Please explain.
#146; Good to know.
It's not that he's bad at math, it's that 11% is one out of nine. This means that Mikey thought there was one scum in the group and he applied that to the (incorrect) amount of others.
Why would he think there is one scum remaining? It's an open setup, everyone knows exactly how many scum there are, two. Mikey knows who one is, and did a 1/9 instead of a 1/8 for the other, accidentally.
A number typo could happen, but that number is so off from just a typo that I believe something else led to it
This post from anak is kinda bad. Not much reason to dwell on the math thing as it's obvious Mikey didn't put that much thought into it.
accurate
#178 from Cantrip really reinforces my thought that Cantrip - Anak scumteam is very unlikely.
#196 Rumanashi and mikey aren't a scum team.
Cantrip's unvote in #253 makes me feel worse about him, but not that bad.
Everything I read from Cantrip just seems to come from town. Either he is an incredible manipulator that can make everything go in his favor or if he is actually town. I'm not sure why tom is scumreading him.
at this point all of vezok's town reads are coming with a back-exit of "he could actually be a godlike wolf!!!" I can see why a wolf would do that, but I don't think a wolf would particularly want to do that.
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townish: Rumanshi/Shadow
neutral: Cantrip/Anak/Vezok/Tom
scummy: Emcee/Osie
not sure if I got everyone.. chances of my reads being right are at least 1/3, 2/3 at best, from track record <- that's part of the reason I named 3 suspects.
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Phraze - Anak scumteam? Maybe Cantrip instead of anak. Why are you so damn hard to Phraze?
Lean Town
Cantrip: I feel like I have no idea how to read you, you post a lot of things, mainly they are level headed and well reasoned, and never get in your own way. Seems like I always think you're town regardless of what you wind up being. Like the start, but keeping one eye open.
DBS: Hasn't posted a ton, but what has been posted is fairly well articulated, and their view of the game is close to mine, which has to be townie right?
Shadow: Same old Shadow, asking people questions into their mindset and trying to figure out what people are saying to really solve the game. Wouldn't be surprised if Shadow winds up being scum, just because.
Neutrak
Tom: Maybe slightly town, but really reserving judgment for later. Posting your read of me to appease others is also good.
Rumanishi: Need to spend more time reading, having a hard time remembering anything of significance. This may be more my fault than Ruma's, so want to try and fix myself before claiming that they are just lurking.
Lean Scum
Vezok: Jumping around with their vote and trying to appear to be spicy in their play without really explaining anything until prompted by others.
Osie: Desire to appear very helpful and beneficial to the town, almost artificially so.
Mikey: Weirdness around looking for one scum and screwing up math in the process.
Phraze - anak scumteam getting more likely. Anak - shadow possibility has appeared. Anak - Cantrip is mostly improbable due to earlier Cantrip posts.
Mikey - Rumanashi scum team is improbable due to #297 and other stuff.
vezok is in a really similar mindspace to me I think
I didn't notice this reads list from anaklusmos, but it's definitely lazy to say the least. I'd like to see you show a little bit more effort please
unofficial but ~correct:
ruma (4): mikey, shadow, osi, tom
osi (3): anak, vezok, dawn
shadow: (1): ruma
Not Voting (1): cantrip
fmpov 3 confirmed town on ruma's wagon at some point yesterday
again, this looks like too big of a coincidence
Rumanashi and Cantrip possible scumteam? I'm not seeing it though. This just reinforces my belief that Cantrip is town.
#402 from Rumanashi doesn't come from scum. I don't see scum voting for an L-1 wagon on town wanting to switch to another wagon on town and asking a ton of relevant questions before doing it.
but
but you just said...
never mind
#425, #426, #428 from Phraze seem to come from a town mindset. I wish I could move the needle from Neutral to either slightly town or slightly scum, but I just can't. If I had to choose, I'd say scum, but it's a very low confidence read.
so you're NOT really scum reading DBS
you're just kinda waffly
people like waffles, but only to eat, not to talk to or play with
#432 from Cantrip really townie. Townreads too many people to leave a plausible end game scenario for scum and his thoughts line up nicely with what I expect from town Cantrip.
this is important to note imo. Scum need to be careful that they don't run out of suspicions midgame and vezok is watching for it.
@Cantrip Trying to nail me on activity is a fools errand. Actually look at what I'm saying and think about if it's something that would come from scum. I can't mimic myself as town worth a *****, as has been evidenced by almost every scum game of mine.
oh, that helps. so you don't pass off as your town self easily.
This post is so bad I don't actually know what to think of it. Why in God's name does Phraze come into the thread with 3 hours until deadline and makes a pointless comment about anak's post? This feels like scum trying to reinforce the self meta read of his partner.
rumanshi/shadowlancer possible wolfteam
vezok/dbs possible wolfteam
anak/dbs possible wolfteam
in that order from likely to least likely
If I don't hear more from anak and vezok they slowly gain scum points. I still have anak as a town read, but vezok is null after his performance under pressure yesterday
As far as a massclaim goes, I’m fine with it; but I don’t think it’s necessary or relevant. It is literally a wine claim at this point regardless.
How is it a wine claim? Better question: even if it *is* a wine claim, why isn't it a good idea to get that out there now rather than toMorrow?
If there is a body guard claim then it doesn’t actually tell us anything about that person’s alignment. If there is no bodyguard claim then we know we’re in the setup without one, but if there is a claim, then either that person is town body guard or that person is scum, but that still leaves us judging by behavior.
There's scum between rumanshi shadowlancer and vezok
If vezok is scum it slightly clears both rumanshi and shadowlancer to me
Rumanshi's "how many wolves" post reeks to me especially after I was called out over the math fiasco- it's clear at this point there are two wolves and him trying to dumbtell like that sets of major warning flags vote rumanshi
Vezok is pocketing me and it feels weird
What about Cantrip, dawning, and Anak?
What exactly makes you think Vezok is pocketing you, and if you think Vezok and Ruma aren’t scum together then why are more confident in Ruma over Vezok?
Ah, I think I have why I think Vezok is likely a town but it's not particularly substantial. It's been nagging at me, but why would scum risk claiming two players who they know aren't scum are likely to be scum? Like, if Vez had said they thought only one of the two was scum, it would make more sense.
So, if Mikey is not the bestest wolf ever, and I don't see how scum!Vezok would make a risk like that, That leaves Cantrip, Anak, Shadow and dawning on my suspicious list. If I were to list it in order of towniest to scummiest right now it would probably be:
Mikey
Vezok
Shadow
Anak
Cantrip
Dawning
__________
And here's where the problem comes in. I can't see a Cantrip / Dawning team at the moment. And I'm doubting the possibility of a scum!shadow. I've only played one game with him though, the haiku one where I replaced in. He's had experience with me playing as scum. If that's useful information. Alright, I'd like to see Dawning's opinion right now, so
Vote:DawningBlueSky
I hope this will turn into something useful.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
Hm thats really unfortunate, sorry Osie. Did some reading back through the EOD yesterday, and Tom's top suspects by far are Vezok and Cantrip, Vezok moreso. Tom calls me town for most of the game, Vezok scum for a lot of it, and Vezok comes into today voting me and calling me scum? Why on earth do I NK Tom there? He was my biggest ally in the thread, taking him out makes no sense. Osie was also calling Vezok scum and voting him, which I guess explains why Vezok comes into today with a large wall post, he knows that he is going to be the main suspect to start the day and wants to help divert attention from that.
Vote Vezok
Sleepy, tired, can actually post more tomorrow instead of spending time reading things.
Oh yeah for the massclaim, I support it, I guess, but don't really understand the benefit of it currently? I can't think of any real downsides either, so if we want to I'm down.
Hm thats really unfortunate, sorry Osie. Did some reading back through the EOD yesterday, and Tom's top suspects by far are Vezok and Cantrip, Vezok moreso. Tom calls me town for most of the game, Vezok scum for a lot of it, and Vezok comes into today voting me and calling me scum? Why on earth do I NK Tom there? He was my biggest ally in the thread, taking him out makes no sense. Osie was also calling Vezok scum and voting him, which I guess explains why Vezok comes into today with a large wall post, he knows that he is going to be the main suspect to start the day and wants to help divert attention from that.
Vote Vezok
Sleepy, tired, can actually post more tomorrow instead of spending time reading things.
You are totally right. I know I am going to be a suspect because my reads were *****. That's why I'm giving my all. This is NAI though.
Anyway, Tom scumread me most of yesterday. It would be a pretty bad to kill him at night.
@anak: Thoughts on Phraze?
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row/column refer to horizontal, right? just wondering if it also means diagonal. tic-tac-toe stuff.
I'm claiming town bodyguard. protected Rumanshi - wanted to take the vigshot in case it was in play. figured it would be optimal to take the vigshot rather than a nightkill, since it will confirm the vig + target in a single action. in the offchance jailer was in play instead, I could still connect the missing dots with a claim. since I've outed myself, guess I'll just try to tank the NK or die eventually.
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I guess reading Osie will take some getting used to, his playstyle fluctuates more than what I'm familiar with. Tom is also someone I thought was dangerous as scum/town, but it's more that he's a relaxed player as either alignment.
anyways, I have Rumanshi/Shadow as town and don't think that will change. Shadow wanting to clear Rumanshi for reading the grid setup 'this or that way' is also reassuring.
this leaves me with Emcee/Anak/Cantrip/Vezok.
Emcee saying this setup is probably all vanilla looks kind of....town(?) since scum will know the bodyguard is in play. flashback to Anak's suspicion of Emcee/Osie scumteam in post #50... making teams early isn't something I think scum enjoy doing. maybe Tom has a point with Cantrip/Vezok - he specifically townread Anak too. but just to be safe, my PoE is in the 4 of these players.
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gonna start here Vote: vezokpiraka
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Phraze as bodyguard is what I expected, but I still hoped it could've been someone else. This is just a lot of WIFOM. I still think lynching Anak is our best bet for catching scum.
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Phraze as bodyguard is what I expected, but I still hoped it could've been someone else. This is just a lot of WIFOM. I still think lynching Anak is our best bet for catching scum.
can you elaborate? You were "expecting" a bodyguard?
@Cantrip: Just didn't really think about it before, tbh.
Ok... So, when the game started, I reviewed each row and column individually to get a grasp of what possible setups we might be looking at. That you apparently didn't gives me wolfy feels, as scum would have a much better idea of what the setup is like and wouldn't have to consider that.
on the other hand I would bet my liver cantrip is town here. He's never played with me before and calls me an "open book" which is more or less how people feel when they read me over on one of the forums I play on.
How do you know I didn't go read some of your games on other sites and gain insight into you that way?
I'm leery of statements like "ok so-and-so is definitely town" but then they just drop it without providing a reason why that person is definitely town.
FYI, some people here do that all the time, even as town (and it drives me a bit nuts).
#432 from Cantrip really townie. Townreads too many people to leave a plausible end game scenario for scum and his thoughts line up nicely with what I expect from town Cantrip.
this is important to note imo. Scum need to be careful that they don't run out of suspicions midgame and vezok is watching for it.
Are you saying that you agree with Vezok's comment, or that he's scummy because he's thinking about not running out of suspicions midgame?
As far as a massclaim goes, I’m fine with it; but I don’t think it’s necessary or relevant. It is literally a wine claim at this point regardless.
How is it a wine claim? Better question: even if it *is* a wine claim, why isn't it a good idea to get that out there now rather than toMorrow?
If there is a body guard claim then it doesn’t actually tell us anything about that person’s alignment. If there is no bodyguard claim then we know we’re in the setup without one, but if there is a claim, then either that person is town body guard or that person is scum, but that still leaves us judging by behavior.
Right. Because scum would know if we have a bodyguard or not and could fakeclaim bodyguard if they know we don't. Gotcha.
Hm thats really unfortunate, sorry Osie. Did some reading back through the EOD yesterday, and Tom's top suspects by far are Vezok and Cantrip, Vezok moreso. Tom calls me town for most of the game, Vezok scum for a lot of it, and Vezok comes into today voting me and calling me scum? Why on earth do I NK Tom there? He was my biggest ally in the thread, taking him out makes no sense. Osie was also calling Vezok scum and voting him, which I guess explains why Vezok comes into today with a large wall post, he knows that he is going to be the main suspect to start the day and wants to help divert attention from that.
I know you said we'd get more tomorrow (now today), so ok, but it sounds like all your suspicions are based on who dead town players were calling scum. That still feels like the lazy path to me. Are you going to scumhunt toDay?
row/column refer to horizontal, right? just wondering if it also means diagonal. tic-tac-toe stuff.
Yes, I'm pretty sure row/column restricts it to vertical or horizontal lines. No diagonals.
Quote from DBS »
I'm claiming town bodyguard. protected Rumanshi - wanted to take the vigshot in case it was in play. figured it would be optimal to take the vigshot rather than a nightkill, since it will confirm the vig + target in a single action. in the offchance jailer was in play instead, I could still connect the missing dots with a claim. since I've outed myself, guess I'll just try to tank the NK or die eventually.
Ok, so if you're telling the truth, we have a dead jailer, you-bodyguard, and a scum tracker that now provides no extra benefit to the scum. So essentially all-vanilla other than the possibility that you may take the kill in place of someone the scum really wants to shut up...but we won't know if that's the case or if they just targeted you.
However...I'm not sure I buy this. Rumanshi was a question mark for many people; why would you try to stop that vig shot? It would have helped with a lot of PoE. Yes, you could confirm the vig and that he targeted Rumanshi, but that wouldn't give anyone any insight into Rumanshi! I need to do some research. In the meantime, please clarify how confirming Rumanshi as a vig-target is beneficial.
Quote from DBS »
Emcee saying this setup is probably all vanilla looks kind of....town(?) since scum will know the bodyguard is in play.
This seems a bit disingenuous. Yes, scum would know that the bodyguard is in play; why couldn't Mikey make that statement with that in mind? I mean, I'm pretty sure he's town, but for a lot of other reasons that have nothing to do with setup speculation comments.
So, first and foremost in my perspective, I was the victim of a hit-and-run sideswiping this weekend. My whole family was in the car, but thankfully no one was harmed. We haven't gotten an update, but it sounds like the other driver caused a 3-car accident at an intersection we had just left, then overtook us and essentially ground off the entirety of the left side of our Prius. Both door handles and the mirror are gone. Extensive damage to both doors. Car still drives, though, and, like I said, no injuries.
So I may not be able to contribute as much as I would like here, but I'll stay connected.
on the other hand I would bet my liver cantrip is town here. He's never played with me before and calls me an "open book" which is more or less how people feel when they read me over on one of the forums I play on.
Phraze as bodyguard is what I expected, but I still hoped it could've been someone else. This is just a lot of WIFOM. I still think lynching Anak is our best bet for catching scum.
what made you expect me to be one? I haven't breadcrumbed my role at all. also, if this was what you expected, why do you have me on scum-tier? sounds like you're pleading guilty to attempts of outing a PR.
@DBS: I never remembered to follow up on this. In 287 you told Osie "your claim can't be proven", and it sounded like an accusation. Of course it can't be proven; why was that a point against him? I'd like to see your T/S list, too, please.
I have given out my list already in #267.
my thoughts about Osie's claim is in #345, 2nd paragraph to Tom: VTs that push a lynch away from them only endanger the PRs more - even if the PR isn't lynched, he immediately becomes the NK choice. the grid also makes problemsolving even more difficult if we end up outing all the PRs and are left with only VTs. overall, the claim can't be proven and diverting was more harmful than not.
row/column refer to horizontal, right? just wondering if it also means diagonal. tic-tac-toe stuff.
Yes, I'm pretty sure row/column restricts it to vertical or horizontal lines. No diagonals.
Quote from DBS »
I'm claiming town bodyguard. protected Rumanshi - wanted to take the vigshot in case it was in play. figured it would be optimal to take the vigshot rather than a nightkill, since it will confirm the vig + target in a single action. in the offchance jailer was in play instead, I could still connect the missing dots with a claim. since I've outed myself, guess I'll just try to tank the NK or die eventually.
Ok, so if you're telling the truth, we have a dead jailer, you-bodyguard, and a scum tracker that now provides no extra benefit to the scum. So essentially all-vanilla other than the possibility that you may take the kill in place of someone the scum really wants to shut up...but we won't know if that's the case or if they just targeted you.
However...I'm not sure I buy this. Rumanshi was a question mark for many people; why would you try to stop that vig shot? It would have helped with a lot of PoE. Yes, you could confirm the vig and that he targeted Rumanshi, but that wouldn't give anyone any insight into Rumanshi! I need to do some research. In the meantime, please clarify how confirming Rumanshi as a vig-target is beneficial.
Quote from DBS »
Emcee saying this setup is probably all vanilla looks kind of....town(?) since scum will know the bodyguard is in play.
This seems a bit disingenuous. Yes, scum would know that the bodyguard is in play; why couldn't Mikey make that statement with that in mind? I mean, I'm pretty sure he's town, but for a lot of other reasons that have nothing to do with setup speculation comments.
1. thanks for the info.
2. Rumanshi is my townread and I've been pretty clear on that. if I died in his stead, while the vig attempted to target him, my alignment and read conclusion should be obvious by the next Day, even if I die. say the vig try to shoot someone I townread, and I ended up protecting him... it's confirming 2 townies with 1 action. trying to tank a nightkill for funzies does nothing.
3. scum would hesitate about disproving potential PRs in play, to stay on their good side, and because they will have to clear up that error when the PRs claim. Emcee gave out his thoughts without reserve/concern that the informed mindset would have.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
while rumanshi is the correct vigi target in my mind being the second wagon from day one I don't see how you flipping bodyguard in any way confirms him
cantrip, I don't believe I've mentioned other forums I play at and even if I have, my username on other forums definitely isn't emcee mikey
anyway, I'm on the fence about DBS' bodyguard claim myself, but there's no way to confirm it until DBS dies. That being said since the claim is (as of yet) uncontested we can't lynch DBS today just because we maybe don't believe the claim.
I'm going to vote Vezokpiraka, since he's been acting strangely.
I'm still super suspicious of rumanshi for his terrible play, but the way flips have ended up I'm getting bamboozled
Phraze as bodyguard is what I expected, but I still hoped it could've been someone else. This is just a lot of WIFOM. I still think lynching Anak is our best bet for catching scum.
can you elaborate? You were "expecting" a bodyguard?
I wasn't expecting a bodyguard. There were two possibilities. Either everyone was vanila or someone was a bodyguard. In the second case, you could do a process of elimination and realise that there are few people in the game who could be bodyguard. Cantrip and shadow were pretty obviously not the bodyguard in the way they responded to the mass claim proposal. Rumanashi's questions about the setup made it clear he wasn't it either. That left you, Phraze and Anak as possibilities. Anak would have most definitely targeted tom at night. That left you and Phraze. Of you two, I felt you had a bigger chance of targeting tom at night while also not really playing like a bodyguard all game, but I wouldn't have been surprised if you claimed it.
As you can see it was pretty obvious that if someone were to claim bodyguard, Phraze was the biggest possibility for it.
Now I think Phraze might actually be town. The convoluted idea of protecting Rumashi in case he gets vig killed is so far out that I don't really see scum making it. It also feels genuinely convoluted, not just a made up explanation.
That means I'm left with Anak and someone else as a scumteam, most probably shadow, but shadow has done some things that I feel don't come from scum shadow. Mostly fighting Rumanashi yesterday about nothing in particular and then townclearing him today.
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@DBS: I never remembered to follow up on this. In 287 you told Osie "your claim can't be proven", and it sounded like an accusation. Of course it can't be proven; why was that a point against him? I'd like to see your T/S list, too, please.
I have given out my list already in #267.
my thoughts about Osie's claim is in #345, 2nd paragraph to Tom: VTs that push a lynch away from them only endanger the PRs more - even if the PR isn't lynched, he immediately becomes the NK choice. the grid also makes problemsolving even more difficult if we end up outing all the PRs and are left with only VTs. overall, the claim can't be proven and diverting was more harmful than not.
So your argument is that Osie...shouldn't have truthfully claimed and should have just eaten the lynch? o.O Seriously, what did Osie do wrong/what should he have done in that situation?
Also, TFW I ask for a reads list and you refer me to your list from Day 1. What are your CURRENT reads???
Quote from DBS »
2. Rumanshi is my townread and I've been pretty clear on that. if I died in his stead, while the vig attempted to target him, my alignment and read conclusion should be obvious by the next Day, even if I die. say the vig try to shoot someone I townread, and I ended up protecting him... it's confirming 2 townies with 1 action. trying to tank a nightkill for funzies does nothing.
But if you're town, you protecting a player whose alignment you don't know confirms nothing about Rumanshi! It's just as legit for you to say throughout the game that you think Rumanshi is town and then you die and are revealed town and we go "oh, well, DBS thought Rumanshi was town" and it's something we take into consideration. But if you had successfully predicted the NK, we'd still have a jailer! It's not even sort of "for funzies". Which is why I'm just blown away by you saying you thought it would be better to screen for the potential vig shot...
Quote from DBS »
3. scum would hesitate about disproving potential PRs in play, to stay on their good side, and because they will have to clear up that error when the PRs claim. Emcee gave out his thoughts without reserve/concern that the informed mindset would have.
cantrip, I don't believe I've mentioned other forums I play at and even if I have, my username on other forums definitely isn't emcee mikey
Ok, fair enough. Just trying to figure out why you're townreading me so hard off that one element.
Quote from Mikey »
anyway, I'm on the fence about DBS' bodyguard claim myself, but there's no way to confirm it until DBS dies. That being said since the claim is (as of yet) uncontested we can't lynch DBS today just because we maybe don't believe the claim.
Does DBS's target choice make sense from a town perspective, though? Regardless of whether she thought Rumanshi was town, a lot of people suspected him. Why would town think "hey, I should prevent a town vig from clearing up a question mark", especially N1 when it would be less chancy?
EWP: That most recent post from Vezok demonstrates exactly why he's still on my leantown list. He's really analyzing the game.
@Vezok: I can see your thought on that bodyguard choice being too convoluted to come from scum. I'm stuck on that choice coming from anyone.
@Cantrip: This is the way I see it. If Phraze was trying to fake claim body guard she would say she protected you, shadow or Mikey because she thought you would be NK. Easy and done.
But instead she claims she targeted Rumanashi because she wanted to prevent a vig shot for ???? reason. I don't see scum coming up with this idea. It seems more like town who over-thought their role and came up with a plan^TM. Scum would also know there is no possibility of a town vig existing so this idea wouldn't spring easily in their mind when thinking of a convoluted plan.
I've done similar plays that sounded good in my head, but were a total disaster in hindsight. As scum I usually have my scumbuddies to tell me it's a bad idea.
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while rumanshi is the correct vigi target in my mind being the second wagon from day one I don't see how you flipping bodyguard in any way confirms him
while nothing will confirm the alignment of who I protect, I can convince at least 1 person (of my alignment) to seriously consider my reads, rather than 0 because my actions are entirely WIFOM (only enemy alignments know what happened). consider it "giving information to the right person".
Now I think Phraze might actually be town. The convoluted idea of protecting Rumashi in case he gets vig killed is so far out that I don't really see scum making it. It also feels genuinely convoluted, not just a made up explanation.
I'm....not sure it's convoluted considering this is a grid/open setup. my actions are calculated and statistically favorable risks.
(but yeah, I kinda agree it sounds messed up lol)
@DBS: I never remembered to follow up on this. In 287 you told Osie "your claim can't be proven", and it sounded like an accusation. Of course it can't be proven; why was that a point against him? I'd like to see your T/S list, too, please.
I have given out my list already in #267.
my thoughts about Osie's claim is in #345, 2nd paragraph to Tom: VTs that push a lynch away from them only endanger the PRs more - even if the PR isn't lynched, he immediately becomes the NK choice. the grid also makes problemsolving even more difficult if we end up outing all the PRs and are left with only VTs. overall, the claim can't be proven and diverting was more harmful than not.
So your argument is that Osie...shouldn't have truthfully claimed and should have just eaten the lynch? o.O Seriously, what did Osie do wrong/what should he have done in that situation?
Also, TFW I ask for a reads list and you refer me to your list from Day 1. What are your CURRENT reads???
Quote from DBS »
2. Rumanshi is my townread and I've been pretty clear on that. if I died in his stead, while the vig attempted to target him, my alignment and read conclusion should be obvious by the next Day, even if I die. say the vig try to shoot someone I townread, and I ended up protecting him... it's confirming 2 townies with 1 action. trying to tank a nightkill for funzies does nothing.
But if you're town, you protecting a player whose alignment you don't know confirms nothing about Rumanshi! It's just as legit for you to say throughout the game that you think Rumanshi is town and then you die and are revealed town and we go "oh, well, DBS thought Rumanshi was town" and it's something we take into consideration. But if you had successfully predicted the NK, we'd still have a jailer! It's not even sort of "for funzies". Which is why I'm just blown away by you saying you thought it would be better to screen for the potential vig shot...
Quote from DBS »
3. scum would hesitate about disproving potential PRs in play, to stay on their good side, and because they will have to clear up that error when the PRs claim. Emcee gave out his thoughts without reserve/concern that the informed mindset would have.
cantrip, I don't believe I've mentioned other forums I play at and even if I have, my username on other forums definitely isn't emcee mikey
Ok, fair enough. Just trying to figure out why you're townreading me so hard off that one element.
Quote from Mikey »
anyway, I'm on the fence about DBS' bodyguard claim myself, but there's no way to confirm it until DBS dies. That being said since the claim is (as of yet) uncontested we can't lynch DBS today just because we maybe don't believe the claim.
Does DBS's target choice make sense from a town perspective, though? Regardless of whether she thought Rumanshi was town, a lot of people suspected him. Why would town think "hey, I should prevent a town vig from clearing up a question mark", especially N1 when it would be less chancy?
1. I suppose so. even 1 mislynch can help turn the tide through Night actions. much better than outing a PR and having them dead/useless the next Day.
2. my current reads are pretty much the same, but with the differences I've addressed.
feeling mixed up about the nulls, but at least I've got a lean on them in either direction.
town: Rumanshi/Shadow
null good: Emcee/Anak
null bad: Cantrip/Vezok
3. since I can't predict the actions of the unknown enemy, I predict the actions of my team whose posts I can read. and in either case, having a vig shoot while killing myself over a jailer.....it'll still net 2 dead bodies in the morning. at least my plan would give town something to think about and not a downward spiral into the WIFOM abyss. I took what I considered the best course of action for my given role. if I were the town doc, my actions wouldn't be this suicidal.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I’m not really about this wagon on Vezok this quickly at all.
I actually think Anak is straight up scum; I don’t think anyone else is as likely to kill Tom last night.
So some history, as far as I know, town!tom has correctly read Anak in all of their games together, and it’s been brought up in the past. It seems like his best shot at not getting pegged here would be to get rid of Tom while he’s still got the town read on him.
On top of that, Anak has been hollow; even his posts today are all about looking back on Tom’s reads. There’s no depth, there’s no real thought there.
Twice I've tried to put up a post and twice it's gotten et up. No time for what I had originally.
@Vezok: Ok, so outside of a really unlikely scenario where you and DBS are buddies and cooked up this conversation, DBS is town bodyguard and you are (still) town. Good to know.
@DBS: I mostly disagree with your thoughts on what Osie should have done, and I completely disagree with your bodyguard target choice, but discussing it further is no longer productive for immediate purposes. I'd love to talk about both of these further during post-game, though.
@Shadow: I agree that Anak's been pretty absent. But I think that makes him more likely, not less, to be town in light of Tom's kill. Coasting scum are unlikely to kill players who are gut-reading them town. I definitely approve of the pressure on him, though, since last time it seemed to help produce content.
Twice I've tried to put up a post and twice it's gotten et up. No time for what I had originally.
@Vezok: Ok, so outside of a really unlikely scenario where you and DBS are buddies and cooked up this conversation, DBS is town bodyguard and you are (still) town. Good to know.
Write your posts in a word doc then copy them over, it will make you happier.
How does the back and forth between Dawning and Vezok specifically make them both town if they’re not buddies?
Quote from Cantrip »
@Shadow: I agree that Anak's been pretty absent. But I think that makes him more likely, not less, to be town in light of Tom's kill. Coasting scum are unlikely to kill players who are gut-reading them town. I definitely approve of the pressure on him, though, since last time it seemed to help produce content.
Thats my whole point though, scum!Anak knows that Tom will catch him.
Walk me through the logic of how lurking is a town!Anak tactic here? I’ve seen town Anak, he garners some heat sure, but he also shows up and plays.
is there any way to ping players? I want to call out both vezok and anak to post more if they're town, because I feel they're both in danger of getting mislynched and should be concerned with that
analyzing osie's wagon isn't very fruitful
my strongest town read and everyone confirmed town was not on the osie wagon, which is quite frustrating
if I had been there for end of day I would have switched my vote onto vezok just to help clear up the wagon and I'm guessing cantrip would have done something similar
ughh there are too many question marks at this point in the game but I think I might be totally off base with a few things vote rumanshi
until more information is revealed via flip I've got to stick to my gut
I'm not liking the way that Anak said he liked the Osie votes. And the random Cantrip vote on Anak yesterday. :/ Anak / Cantrip scumteam? Time to re-read with that idea in mind. In the meantime,
Unvote
Dawning is unlikely to be scum with the information they revealed.
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I am also called Riku. I tend to prefer being called riku.
Phraze as bodyguard is what I expected, but I still hoped it could've been someone else. This is just a lot of WIFOM. I still think lynching Anak is our best bet for catching scum.
Lynching me is the best chance for catching scum? Why are you saying that? You are clarifying something that should just be assumed.
@Cantrip I went back and looked at what the two dead players were saying because they are both good and town. I was dead wrong on what I was reading from people yesterday, so I thought the best way to try and get my head.on straight was to look at what they had to say. Obviously I plan to scum hunt today, that's the point of starting there.
Lynching me is the best chance for catching scum? Why are you saying that? You are clarifying something that should just be assumed.
@Cantrip I went back and looked at what the two dead players were saying because they are both good and town. I was dead wrong on what I was reading from people yesterday, so I thought the best way to try and get my head.on straight was to look at what they had to say. Obviously I plan to scum hunt today, that's the point of starting there.
look Anak I know that you obviously are not a super active player but if you are town I NEED you to be posting more than you currently are. It feels like your activity dropped off a lot since early day 1 and that's worrisome in a game that we're so far from solving
vezok needs to be doing a better job of defending himself as well, he's under a lot of pressure as two town were on his wagon at end of day yesterday, and that looks bad no matter what
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I don't know for sure why massclaiming is a meta here but it's too early for a bodyguard to claim if there is one. They should still claim if they're about to be lynched of course
confidence that someone is town
I'm leery of statements like "ok so-and-so is definitely town" but then they just drop it without providing a reason why that person is definitely town.
I mean I've town read some people for some weird stuff (like going on a tangent about a rescue rabbit they were keeping (this was in a mafiauniverse championships game too lol), but the reasoning was there. If you don't have a reason someone is town, but you know they're town, that means you have game information that the rest of us don't. Like a wolf would.
Calling someone "definitely a wolf" (which I haven't done, but I do think there's definitely one or two wolves between you shadow and vezok) is a bit different, hopefully for obvious reasons.
But yeah, confidence being wolfy is totally exactly what I said and didn't go any deeper than that /s
I sorta rushed over all the stuff I missed and didn't get any clean reads out of it, but vezok started acting scummy under pressure and his pocket on me makes me nervous since his comment about lynching osie looked to me like A) he felt like he was under more pressure than he really was and B) he wanted some extra voting power on his side to help win in lylo
I like this post. Hmmm.
Let's for a minute, get you thinking I am town. What does this do to your reads?
doesn't do a ton to shadow since their weaksauce town read of you isn't contingent on you being their partner
hmm actually they did vote for you but it wasn't very strong or didn't feel very legitimate
I don't think that matters though
Your vote for anak doesn't gain any credence though your reasoning for the anak vote would. I just wouldn't agree with it
I would have to reread to see specifically how it changes more
Vote on anak was not a good decision on my part, I know. Going to re-read and see if my thought process was actually right. I don't think it is, though.
what about me? like so? Some inconsistency, hmm
Now that tom is confirmed town, wouldn't you be more suspicious of DBS now? Please answer this.
Noting 2 things here- DBS' blind adherence to meta (which still annoys me) as seen by "Emcee switched votes without a reasonable followup" and vezok's apparent inability to read anything from DBS' post here. This makes me think a vezok/DBS partnership is possible.
accurate
at this point all of vezok's town reads are coming with a back-exit of "he could actually be a godlike wolf!!!" I can see why a wolf would do that, but I don't think a wolf would particularly want to do that.
so here you ARE scumreading DBS I guess?
vezok is in a really similar mindspace to me I think
I didn't notice this reads list from anaklusmos, but it's definitely lazy to say the least. I'd like to see you show a little bit more effort please
fmpov 3 confirmed town on ruma's wagon at some point yesterday
again, this looks like too big of a coincidence
but
but you just said...
never mind
so you're NOT really scum reading DBS
you're just kinda waffly
people like waffles, but only to eat, not to talk to or play with
this is important to note imo. Scum need to be careful that they don't run out of suspicions midgame and vezok is watching for it.
oh the quote pyramids and the waffles
vezok/dbs possible wolfteam
anak/dbs possible wolfteam
in that order from likely to least likely
If I don't hear more from anak and vezok they slowly gain scum points. I still have anak as a town read, but vezok is null after his performance under pressure yesterday
What exactly makes you think Vezok is pocketing you, and if you think Vezok and Ruma aren’t scum together then why are more confident in Ruma over Vezok? Elaborate.
that's what that post screams, regardless of whether that's your intent or not
So, if Mikey is not the bestest wolf ever, and I don't see how scum!Vezok would make a risk like that, That leaves Cantrip, Anak, Shadow and dawning on my suspicious list. If I were to list it in order of towniest to scummiest right now it would probably be:
Mikey
Vezok
Shadow
Anak
Cantrip
Dawning
__________
And here's where the problem comes in. I can't see a Cantrip / Dawning team at the moment. And I'm doubting the possibility of a scum!shadow. I've only played one game with him though, the haiku one where I replaced in. He's had experience with me playing as scum. If that's useful information. Alright, I'd like to see Dawning's opinion right now, so
Vote:DawningBlueSky
I hope this will turn into something useful.
Vote Vezok
Sleepy, tired, can actually post more tomorrow instead of spending time reading things.
You are totally right. I know I am going to be a suspect because my reads were *****. That's why I'm giving my all. This is NAI though.
Anyway, Tom scumread me most of yesterday. It would be a pretty bad to kill him at night.
@anak: Thoughts on Phraze?
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I'm claiming town bodyguard. protected Rumanshi - wanted to take the vigshot in case it was in play. figured it would be optimal to take the vigshot rather than a nightkill, since it will confirm the vig + target in a single action. in the offchance jailer was in play instead, I could still connect the missing dots with a claim. since I've outed myself, guess I'll just try to tank the NK or die eventually.
----
I guess reading Osie will take some getting used to, his playstyle fluctuates more than what I'm familiar with. Tom is also someone I thought was dangerous as scum/town, but it's more that he's a relaxed player as either alignment.
anyways, I have Rumanshi/Shadow as town and don't think that will change. Shadow wanting to clear Rumanshi for reading the grid setup 'this or that way' is also reassuring.
this leaves me with Emcee/Anak/Cantrip/Vezok.
Emcee saying this setup is probably all vanilla looks kind of....town(?) since scum will know the bodyguard is in play. flashback to Anak's suspicion of Emcee/Osie scumteam in post #50... making teams early isn't something I think scum enjoy doing. maybe Tom has a point with Cantrip/Vezok - he specifically townread Anak too. but just to be safe, my PoE is in the 4 of these players.
----
gonna start here
Vote: vezokpiraka
Be grateful, always."
DBS as bodyguard helps my PoE at least
Gotta think about some stuff
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can you elaborate? You were "expecting" a bodyguard?
Ok... So, when the game started, I reviewed each row and column individually to get a grasp of what possible setups we might be looking at. That you apparently didn't gives me wolfy feels, as scum would have a much better idea of what the setup is like and wouldn't have to consider that.
How do you know I didn't go read some of your games on other sites and gain insight into you that way?
FYI, some people here do that all the time, even as town (and it drives me a bit nuts).
Why not?
Are you saying that you agree with Vezok's comment, or that he's scummy because he's thinking about not running out of suspicions midgame?
Right. Because scum would know if we have a bodyguard or not and could fakeclaim bodyguard if they know we don't. Gotcha.
I've played with and against scum!Shadow. I...really don't think he ever makes a play that obvious.
I know you said we'd get more tomorrow (now today), so ok, but it sounds like all your suspicions are based on who dead town players were calling scum. That still feels like the lazy path to me. Are you going to scumhunt toDay?
Yes, I'm pretty sure row/column restricts it to vertical or horizontal lines. No diagonals.
Ok, so if you're telling the truth, we have a dead jailer, you-bodyguard, and a scum tracker that now provides no extra benefit to the scum. So essentially all-vanilla other than the possibility that you may take the kill in place of someone the scum really wants to shut up...but we won't know if that's the case or if they just targeted you.
However...I'm not sure I buy this. Rumanshi was a question mark for many people; why would you try to stop that vig shot? It would have helped with a lot of PoE. Yes, you could confirm the vig and that he targeted Rumanshi, but that wouldn't give anyone any insight into Rumanshi! I need to do some research. In the meantime, please clarify how confirming Rumanshi as a vig-target is beneficial.
This seems a bit disingenuous. Yes, scum would know that the bodyguard is in play; why couldn't Mikey make that statement with that in mind? I mean, I'm pretty sure he's town, but for a lot of other reasons that have nothing to do with setup speculation comments.
good to know you're doing ok. take care
both of you best not take those bets haha
----------------
@vezokpiraka
what made you expect me to be one? I haven't breadcrumbed my role at all. also, if this was what you expected, why do you have me on scum-tier? sounds like you're pleading guilty to attempts of outing a PR.
@Cantripmancer
I have given out my list already in #267.
my thoughts about Osie's claim is in #345, 2nd paragraph to Tom: VTs that push a lynch away from them only endanger the PRs more - even if the PR isn't lynched, he immediately becomes the NK choice. the grid also makes problemsolving even more difficult if we end up outing all the PRs and are left with only VTs. overall, the claim can't be proven and diverting was more harmful than not.
1. thanks for the info.
2. Rumanshi is my townread and I've been pretty clear on that. if I died in his stead, while the vig attempted to target him, my alignment and read conclusion should be obvious by the next Day, even if I die. say the vig try to shoot someone I townread, and I ended up protecting him... it's confirming 2 townies with 1 action. trying to tank a nightkill for funzies does nothing.
3. scum would hesitate about disproving potential PRs in play, to stay on their good side, and because they will have to clear up that error when the PRs claim. Emcee gave out his thoughts without reserve/concern that the informed mindset would have.
Be grateful, always."
anyway, I'm on the fence about DBS' bodyguard claim myself, but there's no way to confirm it until DBS dies. That being said since the claim is (as of yet) uncontested we can't lynch DBS today just because we maybe don't believe the claim.
I'm going to vote Vezokpiraka, since he's been acting strangely.
I'm still super suspicious of rumanshi for his terrible play, but the way flips have ended up I'm getting bamboozled
I wasn't expecting a bodyguard. There were two possibilities. Either everyone was vanila or someone was a bodyguard. In the second case, you could do a process of elimination and realise that there are few people in the game who could be bodyguard. Cantrip and shadow were pretty obviously not the bodyguard in the way they responded to the mass claim proposal. Rumanashi's questions about the setup made it clear he wasn't it either. That left you, Phraze and Anak as possibilities. Anak would have most definitely targeted tom at night. That left you and Phraze. Of you two, I felt you had a bigger chance of targeting tom at night while also not really playing like a bodyguard all game, but I wouldn't have been surprised if you claimed it.
As you can see it was pretty obvious that if someone were to claim bodyguard, Phraze was the biggest possibility for it.
Now I think Phraze might actually be town. The convoluted idea of protecting Rumashi in case he gets vig killed is so far out that I don't really see scum making it. It also feels genuinely convoluted, not just a made up explanation.
That means I'm left with Anak and someone else as a scumteam, most probably shadow, but shadow has done some things that I feel don't come from scum shadow. Mostly fighting Rumanashi yesterday about nothing in particular and then townclearing him today.
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Also, TFW I ask for a reads list and you refer me to your list from Day 1. What are your CURRENT reads???
But if you're town, you protecting a player whose alignment you don't know confirms nothing about Rumanshi! It's just as legit for you to say throughout the game that you think Rumanshi is town and then you die and are revealed town and we go "oh, well, DBS thought Rumanshi was town" and it's something we take into consideration. But if you had successfully predicted the NK, we'd still have a jailer! It's not even sort of "for funzies". Which is why I'm just blown away by you saying you thought it would be better to screen for the potential vig shot...
Ok, I can see this PoV.
Ok, fair enough. Just trying to figure out why you're townreading me so hard off that one element.
Does DBS's target choice make sense from a town perspective, though? Regardless of whether she thought Rumanshi was town, a lot of people suspected him. Why would town think "hey, I should prevent a town vig from clearing up a question mark", especially N1 when it would be less chancy?
EWP: That most recent post from Vezok demonstrates exactly why he's still on my leantown list. He's really analyzing the game.
@Vezok: I can see your thought on that bodyguard choice being too convoluted to come from scum. I'm stuck on that choice coming from anyone.
But instead she claims she targeted Rumanashi because she wanted to prevent a vig shot for ???? reason. I don't see scum coming up with this idea. It seems more like town who over-thought their role and came up with a plan^TM. Scum would also know there is no possibility of a town vig existing so this idea wouldn't spring easily in their mind when thinking of a convoluted plan.
I've done similar plays that sounded good in my head, but were a total disaster in hindsight. As scum I usually have my scumbuddies to tell me it's a bad idea.
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Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
Check out the Shop Thread
Anaklusmos: vezokpiraka (L-3)
Cantripmancer: (L-4)
dawningbluesky: Rumanshi (L-3)
Emcee_Mikey: (L-4)
Rumanshi: (L-4)
shadowlancerx: (L-4)
vezokpiraka: Anaklusmos, dawningbluesky, Emcee_Mikey (L-1)
Not Voting:
Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is 13 April 2018.
I'm....not sure it's convoluted considering this is a grid/open setup. my actions are calculated and statistically favorable risks.
(but yeah, I kinda agree it sounds messed up lol)
2. my current reads are pretty much the same, but with the differences I've addressed.
feeling mixed up about the nulls, but at least I've got a lean on them in either direction.
town: Rumanshi/Shadow
null good: Emcee/Anak
null bad: Cantrip/Vezok
3. since I can't predict the actions of the unknown enemy, I predict the actions of my team whose posts I can read. and in either case, having a vig shoot while killing myself over a jailer.....it'll still net 2 dead bodies in the morning. at least my plan would give town something to think about and not a downward spiral into the WIFOM abyss. I took what I considered the best course of action for my given role. if I were the town doc, my actions wouldn't be this suicidal.
Be grateful, always."
I actually think Anak is straight up scum; I don’t think anyone else is as likely to kill Tom last night.
So some history, as far as I know, town!tom has correctly read Anak in all of their games together, and it’s been brought up in the past. It seems like his best shot at not getting pegged here would be to get rid of Tom while he’s still got the town read on him.
On top of that, Anak has been hollow; even his posts today are all about looking back on Tom’s reads. There’s no depth, there’s no real thought there.
Vote Anak
@Vezok: Ok, so outside of a really unlikely scenario where you and DBS are buddies and cooked up this conversation, DBS is town bodyguard and you are (still) town. Good to know.
@DBS: I mostly disagree with your thoughts on what Osie should have done, and I completely disagree with your bodyguard target choice, but discussing it further is no longer productive for immediate purposes. I'd love to talk about both of these further during post-game, though.
@Shadow: I agree that Anak's been pretty absent. But I think that makes him more likely, not less, to be town in light of Tom's kill. Coasting scum are unlikely to kill players who are gut-reading them town. I definitely approve of the pressure on him, though, since last time it seemed to help produce content.
Town
Mikey
Vezok
DBS
Shadow
Rumanshi
Anak
Scum
More later when I have more time.
How does the back and forth between Dawning and Vezok specifically make them both town if they’re not buddies? Thats my whole point though, scum!Anak knows that Tom will catch him.
Walk me through the logic of how lurking is a town!Anak tactic here? I’ve seen town Anak, he garners some heat sure, but he also shows up and plays.
my strongest town read and everyone confirmed town was not on the osie wagon, which is quite frustrating
if I had been there for end of day I would have switched my vote onto vezok just to help clear up the wagon and I'm guessing cantrip would have done something similar
ughh there are too many question marks at this point in the game but I think I might be totally off base with a few things
vote rumanshi
until more information is revealed via flip I've got to stick to my gut
Unvote
Dawning is unlikely to be scum with the information they revealed.
Lynching me is the best chance for catching scum? Why are you saying that? You are clarifying something that should just be assumed.
@Cantrip I went back and looked at what the two dead players were saying because they are both good and town. I was dead wrong on what I was reading from people yesterday, so I thought the best way to try and get my head.on straight was to look at what they had to say. Obviously I plan to scum hunt today, that's the point of starting there.