think I got everyone.
Iso is town to me, no scum is dumb enough to CC a claimed vig and retract so fast.
if Shinichi is tpr, that means Azrael(who put Osie as town, Iso/Tom as scum) and Axel(who pushed claimed vig and Jenna for confusion) are scum.
actually I don't know if Shinichi or Azrael is tpr..
hopefully no more waffles from me.
I like my T/S reads.
won't be changing anytime soon.
if you are town, then there is no way that you can see Iso as town also... and at this point its not even about ccing a vig claim... Jenna brought up a good point in how she used the word "kill"... like maybe, shes tpr??? thats why she CC'd it makes sense in my head.
this is a vote I can get a long side of, vote: Osie or Iso at this point, but Im def not joining this Jenna wagon, its garbage imo...
Why is it bad exactly?
because that train seems even more opportunistic then my train, and I think her posts that brought up past things, having given some good points to talk about, so I think he's been helpful. I dont want to wine myself, but theres always the chance that he placing himself in the open because he thinks players wont scum read him for it? but thats pretty ballsy imo, but I'm not gunna focus on the latter, because I think she is town
this is a vote I can get a long side of, vote: Osie or Iso at this point, but Im def not joining this Jenna wagon, its garbage imo...
you were, of course, already voting for osi
jenna (5): iso, az, joe, dv, axel
iso (3): tom, osi, kj
whisper (3): phoenix, grape, lngrr
osi (2): whisper, dawning
dawning (1): shin
grape (1): jenna
Not Voting (2): megs, kaba
I guess I was more dislocated from this game then I thought...
D.V
I literally just made a few posts after jumping from another game, and I am scummy again? lolol, I agree with Shin, Jenna has been helpful, and I'm not voting her...
this is a vote I can get a long side of, vote: Osie or Iso at this point, but Im def not joining this Jenna wagon, its garbage imo...
Why is it bad exactly?
because that train seems even more opportunistic then my train, and I think her posts that brought up past things, having given some good points to talk about, so I think he's been helpful. I dont want to wine myself, but theres always the chance that he placing himself in the open because he thinks players wont scum read him for it? but thats pretty ballsy imo, but I'm not gunna focus on the latter, because I think she is town
What about any of the posts have been good?
There has literally been ZERO scum hunting done. In what way is that helpful?
I seriously prefer a lynch on Grapefruit. Jenna voting that direction is a good sign too.
a Grapefruit/LnG/Shinichi team possibility is starting to align.
they're a seriously townish team though~
... how?
and also, what?
- Grapefruit hasn't pushed beyond what was necessary.
- LnG flamed town over 1 tiny rush on his wagon.
- Shinichi is pointing out faults. (but it has nothing to do with solving alignments)
only thing I can associate in this team is:
- Grapefruit is a busser, and is bad at faking reads, so he goes for the REAL THING which is his scumbud LnG.
- LnG brought up an investigative role, like trying to help Grapefruit with a claim. his BP talk was rolefishing, besides possible communication with his scumbuds. he's a mechanical player, right? makes sense if he got a defense thought up beforehand.
- Shinichi backed the investigative idea up with a 'fullclaim trust', which is another scumteam hint. besides pushing the claimed town first. on our homesite, we know it's standard procedure to move on from a claimed town..even if it is fake. time will tell.
tell me how suggesting what others might claim comes from town? this only helps scum.
they're townish by themselves, but not as a team.
Investigative idea was just an example I was pretty much saying if GF came out with a full claim I would trust it alot more than your half baked claim no matter what he claimed. Why does scum need an investigative role lol in the first place.
I like how your read for me go
He's Town
Nope hes tpr Jester
Oh now hes doing this only scum does
Can't be all 3 sadly though that does sound interesting.
Btw tell me how your soft claim helped town? Cause like wise that only comes from someone who has the intent to hide information town shouldnt hide information.
I really want a Town member to justify Killjoy's overall behavior today.
I think the easiest gamestates to read are the early ones.
in that sense... the Terry/Last trains picked up quickly and were tied. when someone else voted Terry, Killjoy made it a tie again by switching his rvs vote to Last. that was a decisive moment for scum when I pushed on the Killjoy switch. if Killjoy was scum, he wouldn't have been scumread for the switch, it would be me who takes all the heat. instead, both Killjoy and Dawn were scumread for different reasons - Dawn for townreading Last, and Killjoy for being absent. Killjoy should be town....based off that early-game occurence. later events of the game will blur things, but I'll be sticking to that early-game one. his read on Osie is more likely to come from town than scum, since there was much effort put into questioning...from Killjoy but not Osie.
my townread on Killjoy is based off that early gamestate (which is the source for few of my townreads lol) and the active effort of sorting alignments in his walls. Osie's walls, on the other hand, are full of fluff and don't aid his ISOs. Killjoy has heavily focused on Osie, who deflected. scum theater? don't think so.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I really want a Town member to justify Killjoy's overall behavior today.
I think the easiest gamestates to read are the early ones.
in that sense... the Terry/Last trains picked up quickly and were tied. when someone else voted Terry, Killjoy made it a tie again by switching his rvs vote to Last. that was a decisive moment for scum when I pushed on the Killjoy switch. if Killjoy was scum, he wouldn't have been scumread for the switch, it would be me who takes all the heat. instead, both Killjoy and Dawn were scumread for different reasons - Dawn for townreading Last, and Killjoy for being absent. Killjoy should be town....based off that early-game occurence. later events of the game will blur things, but I'll be sticking to that early-game one. his read on Osie is more likely to come from town than scum, since there was much effort put into questioning...from Killjoy but not Osie.
my townread on Killjoy is based off that early gamestate (which is the source for few of my townreads lol) and the active effort of sorting alignments in his walls. Osie's walls, on the other hand, are full of fluff and don't aid his ISOs. Killjoy has heavily focused on Osie, who deflected. scum theater? don't think so.
I don't understand the part about him being scum read so that equals town.
Can you try and explain with just like X and Y? Or something. I just don't have any idea what you are trying to say there.
that looks like the sort of read that only works with some flips.
yeah. flimsy. which is why I'm going for Osie. one step at a time.
I've the feeling Grapefruit will pick up on the hints of his scumbuds and claim investigative role....late in the Day.
I'd prefer no paranoia lynches.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
that looks like the sort of read that only works with some flips.
yeah. flimsy. which is why I'm going for Osie. one step at a time.
I've the feeling Grapefruit will pick up on the hints of his scumbuds and claim investigative role....late in the Day.
I'd prefer no paranoia lynches.
Why would anyone claim investigative role on day 1 lol?
I really want a Town member to justify Killjoy's overall behavior today.
I think the easiest gamestates to read are the early ones.
in that sense... the Terry/Last trains picked up quickly and were tied. when someone else voted Terry, Killjoy made it a tie again by switching his rvs vote to Last. that was a decisive moment for scum when I pushed on the Killjoy switch. if Killjoy was scum, he wouldn't have been scumread for the switch, it would be me who takes all the heat. instead, both Killjoy and Dawn were scumread for different reasons - Dawn for townreading Last, and Killjoy for being absent. Killjoy should be town....based off that early-game occurence. later events of the game will blur things, but I'll be sticking to that early-game one. his read on Osie is more likely to come from town than scum, since there was much effort put into questioning...from Killjoy but not Osie.
my townread on Killjoy is based off that early gamestate (which is the source for few of my townreads lol) and the active effort of sorting alignments in his walls. Osie's walls, on the other hand, are full of fluff and don't aid his ISOs. Killjoy has heavily focused on Osie, who deflected. scum theater? don't think so.
I don't understand the part about him being scum read so that equals town.
Can you try and explain with just like X and Y? Or something. I just don't have any idea what you are trying to say there.
ehh... I explained how I read players before.
the scumteam usually 'dock' town points from the real town. those on the lower end (or receiving) end of the spectrum are usually town. the towniest players are usually scum, and vice versa. Killjoy was targeted along with me, when I questioned his switch, meaning he should be town under fire along with me.
+ Killjoy actively questioned Osie with walls. if you look at Osie's walls, they aren't as informative as Killjoy's.
Killjoy vs Osie. does it look like scum theatre to you? the push looks like town vs scum. the one under pressure during the Killjoy vs Osie....was Killjoy.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
I really want a Town member to justify Killjoy's overall behavior today.
I think the easiest gamestates to read are the early ones.
in that sense... the Terry/Last trains picked up quickly and were tied. when someone else voted Terry, Killjoy made it a tie again by switching his rvs vote to Last. that was a decisive moment for scum when I pushed on the Killjoy switch. if Killjoy was scum, he wouldn't have been scumread for the switch, it would be me who takes all the heat. instead, both Killjoy and Dawn were scumread for different reasons - Dawn for townreading Last, and Killjoy for being absent. Killjoy should be town....based off that early-game occurence. later events of the game will blur things, but I'll be sticking to that early-game one. his read on Osie is more likely to come from town than scum, since there was much effort put into questioning...from Killjoy but not Osie.
my townread on Killjoy is based off that early gamestate (which is the source for few of my townreads lol) and the active effort of sorting alignments in his walls. Osie's walls, on the other hand, are full of fluff and don't aid his ISOs. Killjoy has heavily focused on Osie, who deflected. scum theater? don't think so.
I don't understand the part about him being scum read so that equals town.
Can you try and explain with just like X and Y? Or something. I just don't have any idea what you are trying to say there.
ehh... I explained how I read players before.
the scumteam usually 'dock' town points from the real town. those on the lower end (or receiving) end of the spectrum are usually town. the towniest players are usually scum, and vice versa. Killjoy was targeted along with me, when I questioned his switch, meaning he should be town under fire along with me.
+ Killjoy actively questioned Osie with walls. if you look at Osie's walls, they aren't as informative as Killjoy's.
Killjoy vs Osie. does it look like scum theatre to you? the push looks like town vs scum. the one under pressure during the Killjoy vs Osie....was Killjoy.
But why cant the vise versa apply? Why in this situation is KJ town and not scum?
Because only the very best scum can make posts like these:
Quote from kj »
(FTR I don't believe Az when he says he's gonna die from one Betrayal. I think he's just doing that to make sure people don't Betray N1 and to give him license to infinitely Betray everyone "to avoid death").
Quote from kj »
Fun thought: Pretty sure Dawn is town.
I'm mildly annoyed at myself because I'm feeling too lazy to go back and respond to things individually, but at the same time I wanna reread the whole game to get a better feel of who the scum really are. AM I just hardtunneling Osie?
No, I really don't think so.
Osie! Explain this for me:
Quote from kj »
Part of me just wants to just go down the rabbit hole of trusting Az implicitly (because what could possibly go wrong there?) but part of me also wants Osie to die die die die die so IDK what to do.
Quote from kj »
Well I'm glad that people are FINALLY coming to my line of thinking about Osie being scum.
[thoughts]
Iso might be town. I like his questions. I'm not going to be willing to lynch him today.
DV, despite being on my ass all day, has had good reactions to Dawn's postings, and is also probably town.
Az is usually better at figuring out my alignment. Also Az is the only one who's brought up the possibility of a neutral being in this game.
Dawn is town because her entire game has been not in concert with literally anyone. That would include the scum. I can't see Dawn being part of any scumteam, where she works with other people to achieve a common goal of survival and lynching townies.
Tom does seem agendaless, which frankly worries me. Following Powerwolf Tom in Low Fantasy, this polar behavior is something that's weird. Maybe he's just finally town though. *shrug*
LnGrrR might be scum. I need to ISO him because his preoccupation with betrayals and such makes sense given his role. On the other hand, I'm wondering if that's his whole role. He's currently like a limited lie cop which is worse than Tracker.
Osie is still scum.
I'm seriously wondering if Whisper is scum. His playstyle is kind of just abrasive and naturally scummy so all the scum signs I've seen are likely just playstyle based. Going to have to dig deeper into this slot.
I agree with whoever said Jenna staying current while still catching up was a good thing. That would be hard to do as scum, and therefore earns a townlean.
I still kinda think Terry might be town but I'm beginning to doubt my read on him.
[/thoughts]
Quote from kj »
I mean... how do you expect an objective view of someone's play to end? Am I supposed to just forget that I noted potential towntells? No, and if you read anyone's ISO you're going to fins scummy things and townie things. Including them in my conclusion was solely poiunting out their existence. I believe my language correctly indicated that I thought he was scum. I mean, I made a whole list and everything.
Of course I didn't wanna do any more work. That Osie case took like 7 hours. **** casing other people after that (at least immediately).
Also, I understood that "he doesn't believe his attack" in some sort of subconscous nextlevel stuff that I could concievably doing as scum, was your underlying point. I got that.You don't know my alignment, so trying to deduce what I'm thinking as scum is one of your goals. Fine.
The part that made me wtf was that you seemed to be saying not that I just disbelieved my case, but that I was verbally admitting to it as part of a weird scum strategy to do... something. (I believe you said avoid scumhunting, but IDK how that would even work)
Quote from kj »
The depth you go into explaining how I misunderstood your thing on Az, and strength of your general language when talking about it (I've bolded some important bits, and turned them green) strongly implies that you think I purposely am misrepresenting your argument. Why are you not scumreading me harder? How am I only a scumlean if I'm strawmanning you?
Quote from kj »
I actually had trouble sleeping last night... because I was thinking about mafia. One of the things that occupied my head was this interaction, and wondered if it meant that LnGrrR and Osie were not scum together as it creates a link between them that scum might want to avoid.
I actually don't believe that Osie actually beleives that as Osie is not coming at me nearly as hard as a townie who sees a bs post about them would likely do, partially due to the passivity and how he's stating as fact that my ISO of him obviosuly makes me wrong (which, if it does, is not nearly obvious).
I'm reasonably sure I'm being fair in my assessment of Osie in that ISO. I'm biased, sure but I weighed all the tells together and arrived at the conclusion that he was scum for it.
Do I need to restate the reasoning again? I mean, did people not fully understand it? Would it help to have post links instead of quotes for ease of reading?
Anywho, yea that was my point. Now to answer things.
In my initial analysis, I stopped after I ran into the first 1-2 of these posts, because it was enough for me to tell. But look at this crap. Look at that last post in particular.
Do you feel that Killjoy is an epicly talented scum mastermind? Do you think he's on a separate plane, above and beyond ordinary mortals? I mean, I'm sure he's good.
But I do not think he is so good that he thinks to himself, man, I'm going to write this utterly convincing description of how I stayed up all night thinking about this particular interaction between the players, JUST SO I CAN REALLY STICK IT TO THE TOWN BY LAYING A FALSE TOWN TELL THAT MAYBE SOMEONE WILL NOTICE AND TOWNREAD ME FOR.
No. Not in a million years. Kj is clearly having a ton of original thoughts, thoughts that are detailed, and would require extreme effort and creativity for scum to fake, for comparatively minor chance of gain. KJ's not that good of a scum. Therefore, he's town.
I can make the same case for just about everyone else on my town-lock list, to varying (but pretty high) degrees of certainty. All depends on how much time I have to give y'all, and who becomes a target, as to how many more people I can lay out my homework for you on. Which, after this weekend, is going to become dicey again. But here's the thing. I won't be shocked if I were wrong about 1, maybe two people on my town-clear list. There's space for error with tom, for example, or if Jenna is just an extremely weird out-of-town lurker. I guess weirder stuff has happened. There are a few more unknown quantities in the mix here than normal for me.
But KJ? And most of the rest of the playerbase? Nah. This game is mostly solved. We have tons of players who are completely obv-town, yet are still getting hammered by other townies. I just don't know that I have enough time to prove it to everyone's satisfaction before I die.
Kill Iso. Kill Grape. Get around to killing Jenna. Evaluate from there if I'm right about Tom, or if someone's hiding in my blind spots.
Top candidates for blind-spotting me are probably realstinky, Lngrr, Shin, and Megs of course is just a blank slate. I haven't gone as far in depth on them as I might need to. I can reread those guys in more detail just to cover my bases. But everyone not already named or mentioned is pretty painfully townie if you know what you're looking for.
not based on that. I've detailed the reasons.
I actually admire Shinichi and Grapefruit's playstyles, and LnG's mindset.
My bad. I had you pegged as striking sparks with Shin, repeatedly?
we tend to have this rivalry when playing mafia. sorry if it gives you the wrong impression. the same rivalry extends to Last as well, since he almost pulled a paranoia lynch on a fellow town. (in fact, I make it a goal to one day be blinded to his towngame and 'slip up'...if I can xD)
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Now, if someone else in this list of players, someone I haven't played with, is some kind of a genius scum mastermind on another plane of understanding, like stone-cold unreadable, intentionally seeds high level false townie tells in all their posts, never gets caught as scum...I mean, somebody let me know about that. Cause there are a very small handful of people I've encountered who are just on a level where they actually can put in the work and creativity and effort to fake this crap convincingly, and not slip up. Not very many, but a few. Tom is one of them. So I can never pretend to have a firm town read on him.
But aside from him, I'm not aware of anyone out of the remaining 15 slots I'm looking at who I shouldn't be able to easily town-clear, if they're town-aligned. We have some fine players here, but the only real question mark in my mind right now for a dark horse scum that could be faking at a level sophisticated enough to counter me is real stinky. Judging by his skill as an analyst, he's very solid town, maybe solid scum too. Comments, stinky?
But KJ? And most of the rest of the playerbase? Nah. This game is mostly solved. We have tons of players who are completely obv-town, yet are still getting hammered by other townies. I just don't know that I have enough time to prove it to everyone's satisfaction before I die.
Kill Iso. Kill Grape. Get around to killing Jenna. Evaluate from there if I'm right about Tom, or if someone's hiding in my blind spots.
Top candidates for blind-spotting me are probably realstinky, Lngrr, Shin, and Megs of course is just a blank slate. I haven't gone as far in depth on them as I might need to. I can reread those guys in more detail just to cover my bases. But everyone not already named or mentioned is pretty painfully townie if you know what you're looking for.
okayyy I'm really thinking you're town because of this..
and really, how can anyone not get a good read on the playerbase when we're at 2k posts? lol
[guess I'll have to rephrase my "chances of reading accuracy" into posts, and not phases, since this phase is 2 weeks long but almost solved]
uhhhh can I go back to voting Grapefruit? Vote: Grapefruit
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
And of course, given the fact that this is a 17 player game, we can assume 4 scum, 1 neutral, somebody in the mix is probably some kind of anti-town neutral with who-the-hell-knows what kind of win condition. That's not gonna be easy to catch either. Maybe Iso could if he were actually town this game, instead of bored, disinterested scum.
I mean, town Iso could probably polish off all four scum and the neutral in two hours, if we had town Iso. Which we don't. But I can get you probably at least three of the scum today, and the rest will get sorted out by our power roles, or maybe a betrayal vig-killing scheme, surviving analysts.
Now, if someone else in this list of players, someone I haven't played with, is some kind of a genius scum mastermind on another plane of understanding, like stone-cold unreadable, intentionally seeds high level false townie tells in all their posts, never gets caught as scum...I mean, somebody let me know about that. Cause there are a very small handful of people I've encountered who are just on a level where they actually can put in the work and creativity and effort to fake this crap convincingly, and not slip up. Not very many, but a few. Tom is one of them. So I can never pretend to have a firm town read on him.
But aside from him, I'm not aware of anyone out of the remaining 15 slots I'm looking at who I shouldn't be able to easily town-clear, if they're town-aligned. We have some fine players here, but the only real question mark in my mind right now for a dark horse scum that could be faking at a level sophisticated enough to counter me is real stinky. Judging by his skill as an analyst, he's very solid town, maybe solid scum too. Comments, stinky?
Oh right, one last quick note before I sleep. Someone was theorizing that someone else in this game might be a jester? DBS I think?
IIRC, Jesters are outright banned from MTGS. Even if not, I can guarantee you that Bur did not throw one into this setup. Unless it's some kind of funky betrayal jester thing. But yeah, I wouldn't lose sleep over losing to the lynch of a jester this game.
Now, if someone else in this list of players, someone I haven't played with, is some kind of a genius scum mastermind on another plane of understanding, like stone-cold unreadable, intentionally seeds high level false townie tells in all their posts, never gets caught as scum...I mean, somebody let me know about that. Cause there are a very small handful of people I've encountered who are just on a level where they actually can put in the work and creativity and effort to fake this crap convincingly, and not slip up. Not very many, but a few. Tom is one of them. So I can never pretend to have a firm town read on him.
But aside from him, I'm not aware of anyone out of the remaining 15 slots I'm looking at who I shouldn't be able to easily town-clear, if they're town-aligned. We have some fine players here, but the only real question mark in my mind right now for a dark horse scum that could be faking at a level sophisticated enough to counter me is real stinky. Judging by his skill as an analyst, he's very solid town, maybe solid scum too. Comments, stinky?
Is there anyone else I should know about?
I won 3/3 scumgames. though...I've been lynched 2/3. dying early is my forte as either alignment lmao
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
Sir Chris! Couldn't remember; that was the name of the other guy I can never read. Most amazing player I've ever met, either alignment. Utterly brilliant. Has he wandered away? I really liked that guy. Cyan played a mean scum too, of course.
i tried to get yog to play on mtgs for awhile.
prolly would have given you an aneurysm in phases this long
Heheh. Yog is pretty ok. But if he hadn't had ten zillion lurkers for cover, it wouldn't have taken me what, four days to get back to the correct read on him? *sigh*
Oh right, one last quick note before I sleep. Someone was theorizing that someone else in this game might be a jester? DBS I think?
IIRC, Jesters are outright banned from MTGS. Even if not, I can guarantee you that Bur did not throw one into this setup. Unless it's some kind of funky betrayal jester thing. But yeah, I wouldn't lose sleep over losing to the lynch of a jester this game.
I see... that's good.
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"I still remember the days I prayed for the things I have now.
okayyy I'm really thinking you're town because of this..
and really, how can anyone not get a good read on the playerbase when we're at 2k posts? lol
[guess I'll have to rephrase my "chances of reading accuracy" into posts, and not phases, since this phase is 2 weeks long but almost solved]
uhhhh can I go back to voting Grapefruit? Vote: Grapefruit
Happy to see GF getting the attention he so richly deserves, but what will it take to bring you aboard the Iso wagon? We have milk and cookies?
I can wax poetical again about how stark raving good Iso is as town, and how much his ego drives him to win and completely dominate games as town, and how his play here is the complete diametrical opposite of his emotional profile as town, I guess. But maybe some of the other MTGS players can back me up on that being a legitimate description of his meta?
And again, I complete buy that he's short on time. No questions about that. But I can't imagine this being how time-strapped town Iso plays.
Pretty sure Iso's like me, and has a more natural bent towards town game-solving, than being the bestest scum ever. Being the bestest scum ever is a TON of work, probably twice or three times as hard as being town. Sounding like your normal townie self, while being wrong repeatedly, when you're not normally that far off, and trying to have to approximate the same techniques and posting style and emotions and...ugh.
If I see Iso failing to rise to the occasion, it's going to be because the amount of effort required was way too high for the reward. And being a good townie just isn't all that much effort for Iso, compared to being scum.
This is a guy who catches 3-5 scum in the first 300-500 posts. Without even having to do PBPAs. Where is that, here? It's not happening. He could have nailed 2-3 good scum reads without a single PBPA, on D1. Now we're close on 2500 posts, and all he's accomplished is bussing his buddy Jenna. That's it.
ok.. Iso aggression was a thing I noticed, but it simmered down as of late. (sounds scary if he's even more aggressive than in this game lol)
Vote: Iso
Yeah, he's a force to be reckoned with. Even if short on time, he'd be one of our best players, and one of the best you'd ever meet. Not a non-entity, like he has been.
I mean I like the thought of giving him time to do these things, but there hasn't even been the beginnings of his particular brand of solving. No moving parts, no associatives. Just... jenna makes no sense lynch her
KJ is the best lynch for today.
Jenna for my sanity/probs scum. But KJ is the highest scum choice.
Azreal why are we not pushing KJ again?
Why is it bad exactly?
jenna (5): iso, az, joe, dv, axel
iso (3): tom, osi, kj
whisper (3): phoenix, grape, lngrr
osi (2): whisper, dawning
dawning (1): shin
grape (1): jenna
Not Voting (2): megs, kaba
D.V
I literally just made a few posts after jumping from another game, and I am scummy again? lolol, I agree with Shin, Jenna has been helpful, and I'm not voting her...
What about any of the posts have been good?
There has literally been ZERO scum hunting done. In what way is that helpful?
Like what are you talking about.
Do you really think Dawn's train is gunna catch traction again? Do you plan on moving your vote?
Meg
Kaba
Do either of you plan on placing your vote anywhere?
Not down with a lynch on:
Axelrod
Azrael
Kabazame
LnGrrrR
Phoenix-Fire
Shinichi
TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
tomsloger
Could be down for a lynch on these people, though in some cases I wouldn't be the happiest about it or would need some convincing:
dawningbluesky
DV
Grapefruit21
Iso
Jenna Tolaria
Killjoy
lastwhisper
Megiddo
Join the club.
*fist bump*
Investigative idea was just an example I was pretty much saying if GF came out with a full claim I would trust it alot more than your half baked claim no matter what he claimed. Why does scum need an investigative role lol in the first place.
I like how your read for me go
He's Town
Nope hes tpr Jester
Oh now hes doing this only scum does
Can't be all 3 sadly though that does sound interesting.
I stated what would cause me to move my vote and I am sure it will eventually lol.
I actually admire Shinichi and Grapefruit's playstyles, and LnG's mindset.
Be grateful, always."
in that sense... the Terry/Last trains picked up quickly and were tied. when someone else voted Terry, Killjoy made it a tie again by switching his rvs vote to Last. that was a decisive moment for scum when I pushed on the Killjoy switch. if Killjoy was scum, he wouldn't have been scumread for the switch, it would be me who takes all the heat. instead, both Killjoy and Dawn were scumread for different reasons - Dawn for townreading Last, and Killjoy for being absent. Killjoy should be town....based off that early-game occurence. later events of the game will blur things, but I'll be sticking to that early-game one. his read on Osie is more likely to come from town than scum, since there was much effort put into questioning...from Killjoy but not Osie.
my townread on Killjoy is based off that early gamestate (which is the source for few of my townreads lol) and the active effort of sorting alignments in his walls. Osie's walls, on the other hand, are full of fluff and don't aid his ISOs. Killjoy has heavily focused on Osie, who deflected. scum theater? don't think so.
Be grateful, always."
BRO
BRO
Bro
Are you really going to say that the terms.
Objectively and subjectively are so different that I am being unreasonable.
I don't understand the part about him being scum read so that equals town.
Can you try and explain with just like X and Y? Or something. I just don't have any idea what you are trying to say there.
I've the feeling Grapefruit will pick up on the hints of his scumbuds and claim investigative role....late in the Day.
I'd prefer no paranoia lynches.
Be grateful, always."
Why would anyone claim investigative role on day 1 lol?
the scumteam usually 'dock' town points from the real town. those on the lower end (or receiving) end of the spectrum are usually town. the towniest players are usually scum, and vice versa. Killjoy was targeted along with me, when I questioned his switch, meaning he should be town under fire along with me.
+ Killjoy actively questioned Osie with walls. if you look at Osie's walls, they aren't as informative as Killjoy's.
Killjoy vs Osie. does it look like scum theatre to you? the push looks like town vs scum. the one under pressure during the Killjoy vs Osie....was Killjoy.
Be grateful, always."
But why cant the vise versa apply? Why in this situation is KJ town and not scum?
I mean it could easily be S v S interactioon
My bad. I had you pegged as striking sparks with Shin, repeatedly?
Because only the very best scum can make posts like these:
In my initial analysis, I stopped after I ran into the first 1-2 of these posts, because it was enough for me to tell. But look at this crap. Look at that last post in particular.
Do you feel that Killjoy is an epicly talented scum mastermind? Do you think he's on a separate plane, above and beyond ordinary mortals? I mean, I'm sure he's good.
But I do not think he is so good that he thinks to himself, man, I'm going to write this utterly convincing description of how I stayed up all night thinking about this particular interaction between the players, JUST SO I CAN REALLY STICK IT TO THE TOWN BY LAYING A FALSE TOWN TELL THAT MAYBE SOMEONE WILL NOTICE AND TOWNREAD ME FOR.
No. Not in a million years. Kj is clearly having a ton of original thoughts, thoughts that are detailed, and would require extreme effort and creativity for scum to fake, for comparatively minor chance of gain. KJ's not that good of a scum. Therefore, he's town.
I can make the same case for just about everyone else on my town-lock list, to varying (but pretty high) degrees of certainty. All depends on how much time I have to give y'all, and who becomes a target, as to how many more people I can lay out my homework for you on. Which, after this weekend, is going to become dicey again. But here's the thing. I won't be shocked if I were wrong about 1, maybe two people on my town-clear list. There's space for error with tom, for example, or if Jenna is just an extremely weird out-of-town lurker. I guess weirder stuff has happened. There are a few more unknown quantities in the mix here than normal for me.
But KJ? And most of the rest of the playerbase? Nah. This game is mostly solved. We have tons of players who are completely obv-town, yet are still getting hammered by other townies. I just don't know that I have enough time to prove it to everyone's satisfaction before I die.
Kill Iso. Kill Grape. Get around to killing Jenna. Evaluate from there if I'm right about Tom, or if someone's hiding in my blind spots.
Top candidates for blind-spotting me are probably realstinky, Lngrr, Shin, and Megs of course is just a blank slate. I haven't gone as far in depth on them as I might need to. I can reread those guys in more detail just to cover my bases. But everyone not already named or mentioned is pretty painfully townie if you know what you're looking for.
say what you want but I won't respond. I'll leave the choice up to town if I should be lynched or not at this point. no offense intended.
Be grateful, always."
Be grateful, always."
But aside from him, I'm not aware of anyone out of the remaining 15 slots I'm looking at who I shouldn't be able to easily town-clear, if they're town-aligned. We have some fine players here, but the only real question mark in my mind right now for a dark horse scum that could be faking at a level sophisticated enough to counter me is real stinky. Judging by his skill as an analyst, he's very solid town, maybe solid scum too. Comments, stinky?
Is there anyone else I should know about?
and really, how can anyone not get a good read on the playerbase when we're at 2k posts? lol
[guess I'll have to rephrase my "chances of reading accuracy" into posts, and not phases, since this phase is 2 weeks long but almost solved]
uhhhh can I go back to voting Grapefruit?
Vote: Grapefruit
Be grateful, always."
And of course, given the fact that this is a 17 player game, we can assume 4 scum, 1 neutral, somebody in the mix is probably some kind of anti-town neutral with who-the-hell-knows what kind of win condition. That's not gonna be easy to catch either. Maybe Iso could if he were actually town this game, instead of bored, disinterested scum.
I mean, town Iso could probably polish off all four scum and the neutral in two hours, if we had town Iso. Which we don't. But I can get you probably at least three of the scum today, and the rest will get sorted out by our power roles, or maybe a betrayal vig-killing scheme, surviving analysts.
congrats
IIRC, Jesters are outright banned from MTGS. Even if not, I can guarantee you that Bur did not throw one into this setup. Unless it's some kind of funky betrayal jester thing. But yeah, I wouldn't lose sleep over losing to the lynch of a jester this game.
Be grateful, always."
I'd like to say I'm capable of that, but honestly, not with that level of finesse. (Oh noes, the "honestly" tell!)
I mean, I'd totally have had you pocketed like 1000 posts ago as scum, it just wouldn't have been as pretty and elegant and utterly convincing.
prolly would have given you an aneurysm in phases this long
Heheh. Yog is pretty ok. But if he hadn't had ten zillion lurkers for cover, it wouldn't have taken me what, four days to get back to the correct read on him? *sigh*
Be grateful, always."
Heheh. Well, can't argue if it gets the results, right?
Happy to see GF getting the attention he so richly deserves, but what will it take to bring you aboard the Iso wagon? We have milk and cookies?
I can wax poetical again about how stark raving good Iso is as town, and how much his ego drives him to win and completely dominate games as town, and how his play here is the complete diametrical opposite of his emotional profile as town, I guess. But maybe some of the other MTGS players can back me up on that being a legitimate description of his meta?
I know Tom has, already.
Pretty sure Iso's like me, and has a more natural bent towards town game-solving, than being the bestest scum ever. Being the bestest scum ever is a TON of work, probably twice or three times as hard as being town. Sounding like your normal townie self, while being wrong repeatedly, when you're not normally that far off, and trying to have to approximate the same techniques and posting style and emotions and...ugh.
If I see Iso failing to rise to the occasion, it's going to be because the amount of effort required was way too high for the reward. And being a good townie just isn't all that much effort for Iso, compared to being scum.
Vote: Iso
Be grateful, always."
Yeah, he's a force to be reckoned with. Even if short on time, he'd be one of our best players, and one of the best you'd ever meet. Not a non-entity, like he has been.
Be grateful, always."