@Cyan your case on SJT being scum with Newcomb is incredibly convincing and pretty much the conclusion I reached. I'm going to try to do a VCA again but I'm just about ready to vote SJT. Shadow and SJT picking up the why don't we lynch Newcomb first argument is spooking me a bit despite me having made that all week.
Yes it paints shadow in a bad light, but scum had the opportunity to hammer a claimed BP and didn't come remotely close. I guess since they have a strongman they didn't need to, but still having Mind and Newcomb!Slot on the counterwagon is strange.
I know me living makes it hard everyday I'm alive, but is that a reason to lynch me and lose everyday? I know I was on the wrong side yesterday and when I flip town backup you'll see why I did it. Ultimately, I made a critical mistake and tried to outguess proph.
Id be a bit relieved if you died because like I mentioned, one of my nightmare scenarios is that you are scum. That would leave
sjt
Rhand
Cantrip
Cyan
Grape
Shadow
There are 2 scum. I know I'm town, i want to keep believing rhand is town, but I'm scared of the s vs s day 3, cantrip is probably town.
That leaves shadow, grape and cyan. I really think grape makes sense as town, but it was shadow that confirmed his ability. If scum had a roleblocker/ cop and has a strongman what other abilities would they have?. A triple cloaker may be a bit over powered, but who comes up with that as a fake claim? They don't. Too falsifiable. That means he would have to have that ability as scum, which is possible if scum had 1 kill and two targeting roles (mind and himself). What would it protect from? The whole scum team gets an untraceable night. Making the team Grape/Shadow still alive. Shadow "confirmed" the ability by attempting to flavor cop grape.
Shadow also "confirmed" mind and cyan. If shadow is scum, so is cyan. So the other option is shadow/cyan.
I can't immediately see a scenario that is cyan/grape. I'd have to think about it more, but that's where I'd start. Either way we slice it, we have shadow confirming cyan and grape at this point. I've had my concerns with shadows play all game and same with cyan. Overall grapes play has been on par for town in my eyes.
That still doesn't change the fact that I'm still mislynchnbait, but I hope I've proven that I'm going to fight till the end. Try to look at me in the Macro lens of the game.
What's not giving me pause is the complete lack of effort to clear himself (Terry) via old reads, interactions, or votes. It's all just saying stuff is true.
Quix's Big VC post so I don't have to keep quoting them
Hmmmm Terry steadfastly was following Mind's vote on the Gruffin slip D1. His vote actually stays there longer than Mind's does. And Mind got a lot of heat for how long his vote stuck there.
Shadow's vote still looks super flighty and scummy D1. Opportunistic is the word I'd use.
VC 1.18 really worries me. Fulcrum goes from not voting in 1.17 to voting the counterwagon to Hunt, with Mind, when Hunt was at L-2. I've pretty much become set in the world of Terry/Shadow/Newcomb but that snapshot doesn't make a ton of sense for that world.
So if that team is correct they chose to lynch AG with 3 members on the wagon when they could have easily gotten Hunt lynched. Again they have a strongman so maybe they don't have to worry about the BP, but it still seems strange.
As for D2, if we believe that world we pretty much did it to ourselves because Terry was steadfastly on Mind through the end.
You keep saying this, but you started calling me scum only when I was calling you scum. And even then there was an "if Cyan flips scum" modifier. (post 1136)
So it isn't reflected in the vote counts, and it likely doesn't count for much, but I did try and get support for a cfd onto Terry day one.
This doesn't do me any favors, but from my POV this is plus town for shadow. The only reason he would say this is to get town cred if I flipped scum. If he was scum he wouldn't need town points when I flip town
What's not giving me pause is the complete lack of effort to clear himself (Terry) via old reads, interactions, or votes. It's all just saying stuff is true.
I think you should re read my posts. Just because I'm not quoting stuff (I'm mobile), doesn't mean I'm avoiding evidence. I've encourage people numerous times to go back and read past days
Just thinking about it. Like I said, I don't think grape could have lied about his ability. If he has that ability, if he was scum it would mean they basically have two roleblockers.
Just thinking about it. Like I said, I don't think grape could have lied about his ability. If he has that ability, if he was scum it would mean they basically have two roleblockers.
Agreed.
...would scum!Terry attempt to townclear Grape like this? Unless, of course, the team is Terry, Grape, Shadow. I don't think that jives, though...
I have to admit. I'm torn. I ought to review notes and parts of the thread, but it would be SO much motivating to do so with two scum bodies on the ground. :/
Plus, I'm going to be posting signups for Silence of the Lambs Mafia (shameless self-plug noted) soon, so I have more motivation for this game to be over. I need to make sure that doesn't push me into a losing decision. So...I still need a bit before I'm ok moving forward. Sorry. If everyone else is at a consensus and wants to move forward without me, so be it.
Think about this Cantrip: Newcomb is as guilty as I am for defending mindreaver yesterday, but I stuck with my gut and Newcomb pulled a complete 180 in a single post to vote mindreaver. He is not being pushed as the lynch today. Why?
I have been mulling this over and I want to start fresh with some PoE analysis.
Grapefruit
Quix
Shadow
Cantrip
Terry
Cyan
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
I'm town
Cyan is town, I will never vote him.
Cantrip is town, I will never vote him either.
Town
Shadow
Cyan
Cantrip
Everyone else
Grapefruit
Quix
Terry
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
I feel like grapefruit is just town here. Like there are scenarios where I vote for him, but those seems ridiculously unlikely and he's been playing a fairly town game for a decent while now.
Town
Shadow
Cyan
Cantrip
Probably town
Grapefruit
Everyone else
Quix
Terry
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
There are 3 scum in the bottom 4. Quix cannot be scum in a world where Rhand is town, the play from yesterday doesn't support that.
Terry has seemed overwhelmingly like scum, save for his OoG stuff for some time now, however, a Rhand/Quix/Newcomb world could exist.
But there is very little chance at this point of a world without Rhand. It just...doesn't exist. Rhand and Terry can actually even be scum together, and it's not all that far fetched.
Also, even if I'm wrong on Grapefruit, that would lead to probably being wrong on Newcomb as well due to them not making a whole lot of sense as scum together and Rhand is still lock scum.
Vote Rhand
~~~
I recognize that the odds of me shifting the momentum here are pretty low, but I am sure that Mind/Rhand was scum/scum. It just makes so much sense with how they both seemed disconnected and how Mind threw in the towel at the end. He knew he needed to die to win, there is no way that he could have made it to end game if Rhand was the one to fall.
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
Cyan I know you will brush this over, put please read over this again with an even slightly open mind.
Cantrip, you had the same worries I did, I am sure they are grounded.
Quix, if you're town, then you've been duped, help me save this game.
Think about this Cantrip: Newcomb is as guilty as I am for defending mindreaver yesterday, but I stuck with my gut and Newcomb pulled a complete 180 in a single post to vote mindreaver. He is not being pushed as the lynch today. Why?
You're being pushed as the lynch specifically because you insist on asking questions like this.
Like come on. Even in the miracle scenario where you are somehow town, you KNOW exactly why you are being pushed today. You literally made a post that said, 'if you're going to lynch me just do it now and get it over with', did you not? Well, that is precisely what we are doing. You bluffed all your chips into the middle and we're calling you. It's too late to back out now.
@Cantrip: Everyone has readily stated that Grape is probably town, admitting this doesn't cost SJT anything.
Also, people were indicating earlier the possibility of Rhand/Quix being scum. I am pretty sure neither of them is voting right now. If they were scum, at LEAST one of them would be voting their intended target, in order to create pressure/try to motivate townies to also vote and win them the game.
The scum team is what I've been saying since yesterday. SJT, Newcomb, Shadow. I don't know how many different ways I have to point out why this is the case before people just suck it up and vote so that we can move on. The fact that SJT is a leading target for everyone and wants us to vote Newcomb ahead of him is a great reason to not so.
Lol @ 'Rhand is still lock scum', based on..absolutely nothing whatsoever, and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. This is called 'scum running with the only option available to them'. My favorite part is where Rhand is scum because of Mind's actions. 'Mind gave up yesterday, so that must make the person he tried to fake an investigation on at a moment when it would win the game scum!' Get real. You guys are so obvious that it's comical.
@Shadow: There is no way your vote should be on Rhand right now. I agree with the possibility that it was a Scum vs. Scum thing yesterday, but I think it's painfully obvious what Newcomb's agenda has been since he came in hot.
@Cyan: I'm scum for asking questions? For encouraging people to use their brains? Nope. It's the opposite. Why is it so hard to consider the fact that there is a reason I'm being pushed over Newcomb. Newcomb came in hot saying SCUM!RHAND, and then last minute, when it became clear Mind would be the lynch he flipped to Mind. I came in hot saying MIND!SCUM and then switched to Rhand. THINK ABOUT IT! What scenario makes more sense as scum? To me, this is an easy answer and I hope other people can see it.
I know precisely why I'm being pushed today, I made a mislynchable mistake yesterday and I'm being pushed by scum as a result. That's my whole point. Newcomb made a mislynchable mistake too and he's not receiving the push that I am. I'm being pushed to force a Game Over Scum Win!
So Rhand and Quix can't be scum because they aren't voting? I'm not voting either so, I'm not scum. Newcomb is voting, so he is obviously scum right? I should also mention that your whole long post a bit (#2294ࣷ) back there was about I had to be scum with Newcomb because Newcomb is bussing me. Newcomb's bus on Mindreaver is ignored. So you have Newcomb apparently bussing a flipped scum and arguing that he is bussing me too, who has not flipped, but you want to lynch me instead of him?
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
The bolded just lost you a ton of town cred in my mind. It seems very unlikely that town!Shadow posts that PoE and concludes with scum!Rhand = Fact. Town!Shadow may *think* it to be true, but I don't think he tries to pass it as fact.
I'm on board with lynching Terry or Newcomb. Slight lean toward Newcomb because of Terry's out-of-game protestations, but I'll support the Terry lynch if that's where the majority is. Again, either we get another body to analyze or the game's over, so it'll be a relief regardless.
@Cyan: I know everyone was already townreading Grape. Terry added a mechanical reason to the fire that I don't think had been discussed. Scum wouldn't want to close off a possible mislynch option, even one mostly townread, so Terry piling more evidence for town!Grape doesn't strike me as coming from scum.
Cyan and Terry, there is literally no world where Rhand can be town except one where I'm scum and I'm not. Rhand is absolutely scum, more so even than Newcomb (who is almost always scum as well)
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
The bolded just lost you a ton of town cred in my mind. It seems very unlikely that town!Shadow posts that PoE and concludes with scum!Rhand = Fact. Town!Shadow may *think* it to be true, but I don't think he tries to pass it as fact.
I'm on board with lynching Terry or Newcomb. Slight lean toward Newcomb because of Terry's out-of-game protestations, but I'll support the Terry lynch if that's where the majority is. Again, either we get another body to analyze or the game's over, so it'll be a relief regardless.
@Cyan: I know everyone was already townreading Grape. Terry added a mechanical reason to the fire that I don't think had been discussed. Scum wouldn't want to close off a possible mislynch option, even one mostly townread, so Terry piling more evidence for town!Grape doesn't strike me as coming from scum.
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
The bolded just lost you a ton of town cred in my mind. It seems very unlikely that town!Shadow posts that PoE and concludes with scum!Rhand = Fact. Town!Shadow may *think* it to be true, but I don't think he tries to pass it as fact.
Fact of the game state. I cannot conceive of a scum team that does not consist of Rhand at this point. I have successful caught Rhand, from PoE and mechanics, so yeah, I'm calling it a fact. Town shadow absolutely does this, if you want to get into meta, scum!me is waaay more hesitant about hard fact stances of someone being scum. Look at Avalon Mafia, or Revolution mafia. Both games where I purported things as fact, and was town.
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
The bolded just lost you a ton of town cred in my mind. It seems very unlikely that town!Shadow posts that PoE and concludes with scum!Rhand = Fact. Town!Shadow may *think* it to be true, but I don't think he tries to pass it as fact.
I'm on board with lynching Terry or Newcomb. Slight lean toward Newcomb because of Terry's out-of-game protestations, but I'll support the Terry lynch if that's where the majority is. Again, either we get another body to analyze or the game's over, so it'll be a relief regardless.
@Cyan: I know everyone was already townreading Grape. Terry added a mechanical reason to the fire that I don't think had been discussed. Scum wouldn't want to close off a possible mislynch option, even one mostly townread, so Terry piling more evidence for town!Grape doesn't strike me as coming from scum.
I can't deal with you anymore.
Man why am I even still in this game.
wut?
Like, *this* is the post that tilts you? What's wrong with it?
Fact of the game state. I cannot conceive of a scum team that does not consist of Rhand at this point. I have successful caught Rhand, from PoE and mechanics, so yeah, I'm calling it a fact. Town shadow absolutely does this, if you want to get into meta, scum!me is waaay more hesitant about hard fact stances of someone being scum. Look at Avalon Mafia, or Revolution mafia. Both games where I purported things as fact, and was town.
But if you're town, you can't know that Cyan and I are town, so your PoE is flawed, and you can't seriously put forth a "fact of the game state" derived from that.
I will accept your self-meta without checking, though. I just don't see how you can arrive at scum!Rhand = fact from the position of uncertain town. If I'm wrong, I'm sorry. :/
Cantrip, for the sake of my sanity, please just vote Terry. Please. I think he is scum. You think he is scum. Everyone(literally every person in the entire game from what I can tell) thinks he is scum. I honestly don't remember the last time someone was this obviously scum to me, and it is driving me insane that we are still going around in circles about this. I can't take it anymore. We'll deal with shadow's wifom arguments after Terry and Newcomb are lynched. Well, someone will. I will clearly be dead based on everyone not-Terry declaring me town.
But if you're town, you can't know that Cyan and I are town, so your PoE is flawed, and you can't seriously put forth a "fact of the game state" derived from that.
I will accept your self-meta without checking, though. I just don't see how you can arrive at scum!Rhand = fact from the position of uncertain town. If I'm wrong, I'm sorry. :/
I can't know that, but I do know that I WILL NEVER VOTE EITHER OF YOU (caps for emphasis, not yelling), so you might as well be confirmed town to me. I'll concede that grapefruit and Newcomb have an ever so slight chance of being scum together, but I really don't believe in that world either, and I also don't believe Quix can ever be scum without Rhand. From a statistics standpoint, 75% of the scum teams I see contain Terry, 75% contain Newcomb, 50% contain Quix, and 100% contain Rhand. If the scum team does not include Rhand, then I lose this game, because I'll either get mislynched, or I'll mislynch him.
Cantrip, for the sake of my sanity, please just vote Terry. Please. I think he is scum. You think he is scum. Everyone(literally every person in the entire game from what I can tell) thinks he is scum. I honestly don't remember the last time someone was this obviously scum to me, and it is driving me insane that we are still going around in circles about this. I can't take it anymore. We'll deal with shadow's wifom arguments after Terry and Newcomb are lynched. Well, someone will. I will clearly be dead based on everyone not-Terry declaring me town.
Let's lynch Newcomb then. Why does it need to be me instead of him? This resistance to lynch Newcomb for no apparent reason is what makes me sure he is scum.
In a world where it was Scum vs. Scum yesterday, I think 100% Cyan is scum with Rhand.
Cantrip, for the sake of my sanity, please just vote Terry. Please. I think he is scum. You think he is scum. Everyone(literally every person in the entire game from what I can tell) thinks he is scum. I honestly don't remember the last time someone was this obviously scum to me, and it is driving me insane that we are still going around in circles about this. I can't take it anymore. We'll deal with shadow's wifom arguments after Terry and Newcomb are lynched. Well, someone will. I will clearly be dead based on everyone not-Terry declaring me town.
Let's lynch Newcomb then. Why does it need to be me instead of him? This resistance to lynch Newcomb for no apparent reason is what makes me sure he is scum.
In a world where it was Scum vs. Scum yesterday, I think 100% Cyan is scum with Rhand.
Cantrip, for the sake of my sanity, please just vote Terry. Please. I think he is scum. You think he is scum. Everyone(literally every person in the entire game from what I can tell) thinks he is scum. I honestly don't remember the last time someone was this obviously scum to me, and it is driving me insane that we are still going around in circles about this. I can't take it anymore. We'll deal with shadow's wifom arguments after Terry and Newcomb are lynched. Well, someone will. I will clearly be dead based on everyone not-Terry declaring me town.
Let's lynch Newcomb then. Why does it need to be me instead of him? This resistance to lynch Newcomb for no apparent reason is what makes me sure he is scum.
In a world where it was Scum vs. Scum yesterday, I think 100% Cyan is scum with Rhand.
Cyan. Isn't. Scum.
He just isn't.
Unvote, Vote Terry
I just explained that IF Rhand is scum, I think Cyan is a buddy, how is this such bad behavior. Rand has not batted an eye at Cyan this entire game, in several occasions I've even seen what can be considered coaching. Look at all the vote counts from Proph:
Cantrip, for the sake of my sanity, please just vote Terry. Please. I think he is scum. You think he is scum. Everyone(literally every person in the entire game from what I can tell) thinks he is scum. I honestly don't remember the last time someone was this obviously scum to me, and it is driving me insane that we are still going around in circles about this. I can't take it anymore. We'll deal with shadow's wifom arguments after Terry and Newcomb are lynched. Well, someone will. I will clearly be dead based on everyone not-Terry declaring me town.
Let's lynch Newcomb then. Why does it need to be me instead of him? This resistance to lynch Newcomb for no apparent reason is what makes me sure he is scum.
In a world where it was Scum vs. Scum yesterday, I think 100% Cyan is scum with Rhand.
Cyan. Isn't. Scum.
He just isn't.
Unvote, Vote Terry
I just explained that IF Rhand is scum, I think Cyan is a buddy, how is this such bad behavior. Rand has not batted an eye at Cyan this entire game, in several occasions I've even seen what can be considered coaching. Look at all the vote counts from Proph:
You're going to need to explain that again shadow because I still don't get how you are concluding that Cyan is town 100% of the time. Please re-explain because I don't see it.
Cyan has made some seriously against the spirit of the game posts that I do not believe that scum!cyan would ever fake. Especially because he got so upset that you did something similar.
Like. You aren't wrong that if you are town I'm probably being duped somewhere. Rhand might even be how I'm getting duped there, though I struggle to see worlds where that makes a lot of sense. It'd probably take being wrong on Cantrip or Cyan for that to really make sense, and I really don't think I'm wrong on either of those.
I don't think Terry and Rhand are super likely to be scum together, but they at least could be. I just don't think Terry throws away his town credit yesterday to save Mindreaver and try to lynch Rhand there. He just buries Mind and looks decent doing so.
But ultimately what it comes down to is that I really don't think there are any worlds where Terry is town. I just don't. I don't believe the claim, I don't believe his reads are real, I don't believe the AtE, I don't believe the way he latched onto people's tinfoil worlds.
I don't believe Newcomb is ever scum without Terry, either. Cyan talked about this earlier - Newcomb accepted the Terry lynch was going to happen - and then spent the rest of the post focusing on tomorrow. That's the behavior of someone who already knows Terry is scum, imo. I still think there's a world where he's town, but you obviously aren't going to acknowledge those because they literally all involve you, heh. (Well maybe not /all/? Terry/Rhand/Grapefruit is one possibility that doesn't involve either of you, but I view that as fairly unlikely for many reasons)
And like.
I want you to be town. I want to be right with the strong gut feeling I have, and my kind of meta-analysis of Proph. But this Rhand push kind of feels like desperation from you as people start to come around to solidly town reading Grapefruit, removing mislynch options you have available to you in late game.
@Quix: I'm one of those people that came around to having a decently strong town read on Grapefruit, that's why I made my PoE post that points to scum Rhand.
This is super gross. Like, super, super, super gross.
But the fact that Terry isn't grasping how those posts by Cyan make him lock town just makes me want to lynch Terry even more. Because it shows a fundamental difference in how people approach the game of mafia and what is acceptable and means I don't... feel as bad for scum reading him due to his own posts.
This post game is going to be brutal when we get around to it a month from now. I've tried to ignore most of it I really have but there's been like, 4 people who have made posts that go against the spirit of the game this game and it'll need addressing.
This is super gross. Like, super, super, super gross.
But the fact that Terry isn't grasping how those posts by Cyan make him lock town just makes me want to lynch Terry even more. Because it shows a fundamental difference in how people approach the game of mafia and what is acceptable and means I don't... feel as bad for scum reading him due to his own posts.
This post game is going to be brutal when we get around to it a month from now. I've tried to ignore most of it I really have but there's been like, 4 people who have made posts that go against the spirit of the game this game and it'll need addressing.
This is super gross. Like, super, super, super gross.
But the fact that Terry isn't grasping how those posts by Cyan make him lock town just makes me want to lynch Terry even more. Because it shows a fundamental difference in how people approach the game of mafia and what is acceptable and means I don't... feel as bad for scum reading him due to his own posts.
This post game is going to be brutal when we get around to it a month from now. I've tried to ignore most of it I really have but there's been like, 4 people who have made posts that go against the spirit of the game this game and it'll need addressing.
Those posts of mine that you are referring to are only against the spirit of the game IF I am scum, but I'm not. You are town clearing Cyan for it but not town clearing me for it. How does that make sense? How can you say Cyan is lock town because his posts are against the spirit of the game if he is scum but still vote me? Cyan and I have both said OoG stuff that will need to be addressed for sure. Why is his a town tell and not mine? This is bonkers.
We'll no lynch tomorrow and I'll pray to all that is holy that I'm killed on one of those two nights.
My last will:
I'm town. Cyan is town. Cantrip is town.
I think Rhand and Grapefruit are probably town, but they are at least theoretically possible scum that you need to consider if alive.
No lynch > Newcomb? > X? should be the next 4 lynches, just make sure you do the due diligence and consider the worlds where Newcomb is town. I don't really think those worlds exist with the way he's kind of checked out of the game, but I suspect he'll come back with the effort when his neck is the one on the line out of respect for the mod and the site if nothing else.
My brain says Shadow is the final one, my heart disagrees. Put the work in, there will only be 3 left at that point, if someone unexpected is still alive, don't just....write them off as town.
We lynch Newcomb today, he flips scum.
I die tonight.
What do you do tomorrow?
[color=blue]
[7] Huntzilla - Cyan, [color=blue]Gentleman Johnny[/color], [color=blue]Gruffinchops[/color], [color=blue]Rodemy[/color], [color=blue]killjoy[/color], Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx
[4] AtheistGod - [color=red]Mindreaver[/color], [color=blue]Huntzilla[/color], Grapefruit21, fulcrum
[1] Grapefruit21 - Rhand
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] Bur - [color=blue]AtheistGod[/color]
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: [color=blue]Bur[/color]
Id be a bit relieved if you died because like I mentioned, one of my nightmare scenarios is that you are scum. That would leave
sjt
Rhand
Cantrip
Cyan
Grape
Shadow
There are 2 scum. I know I'm town, i want to keep believing rhand is town, but I'm scared of the s vs s day 3, cantrip is probably town.
That leaves shadow, grape and cyan. I really think grape makes sense as town, but it was shadow that confirmed his ability. If scum had a roleblocker/ cop and has a strongman what other abilities would they have?. A triple cloaker may be a bit over powered, but who comes up with that as a fake claim? They don't. Too falsifiable. That means he would have to have that ability as scum, which is possible if scum had 1 kill and two targeting roles (mind and himself). What would it protect from? The whole scum team gets an untraceable night. Making the team Grape/Shadow still alive. Shadow "confirmed" the ability by attempting to flavor cop grape.
Shadow also "confirmed" mind and cyan. If shadow is scum, so is cyan. So the other option is shadow/cyan.
I can't immediately see a scenario that is cyan/grape. I'd have to think about it more, but that's where I'd start. Either way we slice it, we have shadow confirming cyan and grape at this point. I've had my concerns with shadows play all game and same with cyan. Overall grapes play has been on par for town in my eyes.
That still doesn't change the fact that I'm still mislynchnbait, but I hope I've proven that I'm going to fight till the end. Try to look at me in the Macro lens of the game.
[3] Mindreaver - Rodemy, Cantripmancer, fulcrum
[1] Bur - quixotic72
[1] Huntzilla - Grapefruit21
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] quixotic72 - Bur
Not Voting: Mindreaver, Gruffinchops
Hmmmm Terry steadfastly was following Mind's vote on the Gruffin slip D1. His vote actually stays there longer than Mind's does. And Mind got a lot of heat for how long his vote stuck there.
Shadow's vote still looks super flighty and scummy D1. Opportunistic is the word I'd use.
VC 1.18 really worries me. Fulcrum goes from not voting in 1.17 to voting the counterwagon to Hunt, with Mind, when Hunt was at L-2. I've pretty much become set in the world of Terry/Shadow/Newcomb but that snapshot doesn't make a ton of sense for that world.
[3] Huntzilla - Rodemy, shadowlancerx, AtheistGod
[2] Grapefruit21 - Rhand, Cantripmancer
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: Bur
As for D2, if we believe that world we pretty much did it to ourselves because Terry was steadfastly on Mind through the end.
Hmmm Cyan said this yesterDay after SJT claimed backup to try and protect Mind.
@Cyan what changed?
...would scum!Terry attempt to townclear Grape like this? Unless, of course, the team is Terry, Grape, Shadow. I don't think that jives, though...
I have to admit. I'm torn. I ought to review notes and parts of the thread, but it would be SO much motivating to do so with two scum bodies on the ground. :/
Plus, I'm going to be posting signups for Silence of the Lambs Mafia (shameless self-plug noted) soon, so I have more motivation for this game to be over. I need to make sure that doesn't push me into a losing decision. So...I still need a bit before I'm ok moving forward. Sorry. If everyone else is at a consensus and wants to move forward without me, so be it.
Grapefruit
Quix
Shadow
Cantrip
Terry
Cyan
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
I'm town
Cyan is town, I will never vote him.
Cantrip is town, I will never vote him either.
Town
Shadow
Cyan
Cantrip
Everyone else
Grapefruit
Quix
Terry
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
I feel like grapefruit is just town here. Like there are scenarios where I vote for him, but those seems ridiculously unlikely and he's been playing a fairly town game for a decent while now.
Town
Shadow
Cyan
Cantrip
Probably town
Grapefruit
Everyone else
Quix
Terry
Newcomb
Rhand
~~~
There are 3 scum in the bottom 4. Quix cannot be scum in a world where Rhand is town, the play from yesterday doesn't support that.
Terry has seemed overwhelmingly like scum, save for his OoG stuff for some time now, however, a Rhand/Quix/Newcomb world could exist.
But there is very little chance at this point of a world without Rhand. It just...doesn't exist. Rhand and Terry can actually even be scum together, and it's not all that far fetched.
Also, even if I'm wrong on Grapefruit, that would lead to probably being wrong on Newcomb as well due to them not making a whole lot of sense as scum together and Rhand is still lock scum.
Vote Rhand
~~~
I recognize that the odds of me shifting the momentum here are pretty low, but I am sure that Mind/Rhand was scum/scum. It just makes so much sense with how they both seemed disconnected and how Mind threw in the towel at the end. He knew he needed to die to win, there is no way that he could have made it to end game if Rhand was the one to fall.
Even if Terry gets lynched and flips scum, Rhand IS STILL SCUM. This is a fact of the game state.
Cyan I know you will brush this over, put please read over this again with an even slightly open mind.
Cantrip, you had the same worries I did, I am sure they are grounded.
Quix, if you're town, then you've been duped, help me save this game.
You're being pushed as the lynch specifically because you insist on asking questions like this.
Like come on. Even in the miracle scenario where you are somehow town, you KNOW exactly why you are being pushed today. You literally made a post that said, 'if you're going to lynch me just do it now and get it over with', did you not? Well, that is precisely what we are doing. You bluffed all your chips into the middle and we're calling you. It's too late to back out now.
@Cantrip: Everyone has readily stated that Grape is probably town, admitting this doesn't cost SJT anything.
Also, people were indicating earlier the possibility of Rhand/Quix being scum. I am pretty sure neither of them is voting right now. If they were scum, at LEAST one of them would be voting their intended target, in order to create pressure/try to motivate townies to also vote and win them the game.
The scum team is what I've been saying since yesterday. SJT, Newcomb, Shadow. I don't know how many different ways I have to point out why this is the case before people just suck it up and vote so that we can move on. The fact that SJT is a leading target for everyone and wants us to vote Newcomb ahead of him is a great reason to not so.
Lol @ 'Rhand is still lock scum', based on..absolutely nothing whatsoever, and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. This is called 'scum running with the only option available to them'. My favorite part is where Rhand is scum because of Mind's actions. 'Mind gave up yesterday, so that must make the person he tried to fake an investigation on at a moment when it would win the game scum!' Get real. You guys are so obvious that it's comical.
@Mod: Can we please have a vote count?
Sorry for lax moderation, I've been fairly busy recently.
@Cyan: I'm scum for asking questions? For encouraging people to use their brains? Nope. It's the opposite. Why is it so hard to consider the fact that there is a reason I'm being pushed over Newcomb. Newcomb came in hot saying SCUM!RHAND, and then last minute, when it became clear Mind would be the lynch he flipped to Mind. I came in hot saying MIND!SCUM and then switched to Rhand. THINK ABOUT IT! What scenario makes more sense as scum? To me, this is an easy answer and I hope other people can see it.
I know precisely why I'm being pushed today, I made a mislynchable mistake yesterday and I'm being pushed by scum as a result. That's my whole point. Newcomb made a mislynchable mistake too and he's not receiving the push that I am. I'm being pushed to force a Game Over Scum Win!
So Rhand and Quix can't be scum because they aren't voting? I'm not voting either so, I'm not scum. Newcomb is voting, so he is obviously scum right? I should also mention that your whole long post a bit (#2294ࣷ) back there was about I had to be scum with Newcomb because Newcomb is bussing me. Newcomb's bus on Mindreaver is ignored. So you have Newcomb apparently bussing a flipped scum and arguing that he is bussing me too, who has not flipped, but you want to lynch me instead of him?
That's shady.
I'm on board with lynching Terry or Newcomb. Slight lean toward Newcomb because of Terry's out-of-game protestations, but I'll support the Terry lynch if that's where the majority is. Again, either we get another body to analyze or the game's over, so it'll be a relief regardless.
@Cyan: I know everyone was already townreading Grape. Terry added a mechanical reason to the fire that I don't think had been discussed. Scum wouldn't want to close off a possible mislynch option, even one mostly townread, so Terry piling more evidence for town!Grape doesn't strike me as coming from scum.
I can't deal with you anymore.
Man why am I even still in this game.
Like, *this* is the post that tilts you? What's wrong with it?
But if you're town, you can't know that Cyan and I are town, so your PoE is flawed, and you can't seriously put forth a "fact of the game state" derived from that.
I will accept your self-meta without checking, though. I just don't see how you can arrive at scum!Rhand = fact from the position of uncertain town. If I'm wrong, I'm sorry. :/
In a world where it was Scum vs. Scum yesterday, I think 100% Cyan is scum with Rhand.
He just isn't.
Unvote, Vote Terry
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/search?by-author=Prophylaxis&display-type=0&display-type=0&forum-scope=f&search-thread-id=771882&search-type=0&submit=y
How many of those have Rhand & Cyan on the same vote and even 1&2 on most of them? There is no way you can't see an association.
Like. You aren't wrong that if you are town I'm probably being duped somewhere. Rhand might even be how I'm getting duped there, though I struggle to see worlds where that makes a lot of sense. It'd probably take being wrong on Cantrip or Cyan for that to really make sense, and I really don't think I'm wrong on either of those.
I don't think Terry and Rhand are super likely to be scum together, but they at least could be. I just don't think Terry throws away his town credit yesterday to save Mindreaver and try to lynch Rhand there. He just buries Mind and looks decent doing so.
But ultimately what it comes down to is that I really don't think there are any worlds where Terry is town. I just don't. I don't believe the claim, I don't believe his reads are real, I don't believe the AtE, I don't believe the way he latched onto people's tinfoil worlds.
I don't believe Newcomb is ever scum without Terry, either. Cyan talked about this earlier - Newcomb accepted the Terry lynch was going to happen - and then spent the rest of the post focusing on tomorrow. That's the behavior of someone who already knows Terry is scum, imo. I still think there's a world where he's town, but you obviously aren't going to acknowledge those because they literally all involve you, heh. (Well maybe not /all/? Terry/Rhand/Grapefruit is one possibility that doesn't involve either of you, but I view that as fairly unlikely for many reasons)
And like.
I want you to be town. I want to be right with the strong gut feeling I have, and my kind of meta-analysis of Proph. But this Rhand push kind of feels like desperation from you as people start to come around to solidly town reading Grapefruit, removing mislynch options you have available to you in late game.
But the fact that Terry isn't grasping how those posts by Cyan make him lock town just makes me want to lynch Terry even more. Because it shows a fundamental difference in how people approach the game of mafia and what is acceptable and means I don't... feel as bad for scum reading him due to his own posts.
This post game is going to be brutal when we get around to it a month from now. I've tried to ignore most of it I really have but there's been like, 4 people who have made posts that go against the spirit of the game this game and it'll need addressing.
As far as I can tell, my vote put him to L-1. Cyan, Newcomb, Shadow, me. 1 to go if Shadow revotes.
We'll no lynch tomorrow and I'll pray to all that is holy that I'm killed on one of those two nights.
My last will:
I'm town. Cyan is town. Cantrip is town.
I think Rhand and Grapefruit are probably town, but they are at least theoretically possible scum that you need to consider if alive.
No lynch > Newcomb? > X? should be the next 4 lynches, just make sure you do the due diligence and consider the worlds where Newcomb is town. I don't really think those worlds exist with the way he's kind of checked out of the game, but I suspect he'll come back with the effort when his neck is the one on the line out of respect for the mod and the site if nothing else.
My brain says Shadow is the final one, my heart disagrees. Put the work in, there will only be 3 left at that point, if someone unexpected is still alive, don't just....write them off as town.
Vote: TheRealStinkyJoeTerry