Sorry that I bailed just then, Rhand. I literally walked out the door two minutes after I posted. I have to get some stuff done, but I should have an opportunity to post more tonight. Thanks for your patience.
@DV: What happened to you, man (if that's not too personal a thing to ask)?
Also, I read something about Seppel removing himself from the premises, Lorax-style...truth?
Uhhh
I had 3 small marks for MTG ban system so I got auto banned.
@Cantrip: I'm too drunk I guess. In my world you're a dichotomy with AG because of Osie, but since you put Osie as one of the possible people to be Q3+1, in your world that dichotomy obviously doesn't exist. So meh.
This is why I wanted to hear your response. I feel like you're basing the entire game off of your read of one of Osie's posts (yes, I realize you're basing your read off of Osie off of multiple posts). If you're wrong on Osie, it could be the game. Even if you're right that Osie is scum, I know something's off with your logic because I'm town. Or your logic is sound, and Osie is town.
Quote from Rhand »
At any rate, walk me through your gamestate. Who is town, who is scum? Why?
Frick if I know. Every time I get excited that I may have solved something, I think "ok, now we just have to see if he flips town or scum, and we're set" and then it hits me again that I'm never going to see a flip until it's far too late. But I feel that it's very likely that Terry and Brin are scum. For the Q2 fail, I'd say DV over Shadow. For the Q3 fail...probably Proph, but that's mostly because of behavioral. The last scum...I don't know. If it's Silver, I'll be floored.
@AG, Osie, Shadow: are you all scumreading Cantrip?
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
I'm ok with Proph coming off, but Terry seems risky. If Proph isn't scum, I think this gets two fails.
It's definitely a thing that Cantrip, Osi, and AG can't all be town together. There's only two town in [AG/Cantrip/Terry/Brinatoo/Osi] because there's two scum [D_V/shadow]+[Rhand/Mindreaver/Proph].
If you're right, I'd say that Osie's more likely the second town than AG.
Quote from Silver »
Regarding Q3's proposal, shadow voted against it unless I made a mistake in my votals. And four of the 3in5 players abstained with the fifth being the proposer.
I'm feeling rather dense for having to ask this, but how does that help?
The Q3 thing doesn't help /exactly/ but. It means scum were almost entirely off wagon which lends some support to the theory that Oberon failed it, not a known scum.
Also Terry said no one voted against it, which isn't completely accurate.
The Q3 thing doesn't help /exactly/ but. It means scum were almost entirely off wagon which lends some support to the theory that Oberon failed it, not a known scum.
Also Terry said no one voted against it, which isn't completely accurate.
If I remember correctly, I didn't vote no officially because it was already hammered yes before I could. I did say I would have though.
Quest 2, Proposal 1 may have been blocked because most people probably felt that dropping one person from a quest with 3 passes to add two question marks, seemed like a statistically bad play.
Quest 2, Proposal 2 was passed because of the reason outlined above. We know now, after the fact, that more than likely the Vaimes counterclaim paired with inhumanly amounts of scumminess by DV, means more than likely Vaimes is Town and DV is scum who failed the quest. With this clear cut example of scum, it should validate the other two players as town (Silver & Shadow), unless one of them is Oberon and passing quests, which I think is a whole lot of WIFOM.
Quest 3, Proposal 1 is a tough one. I can't see why shadow was removed from the pool and silver was left in. Mindreaver, at this point had been a pretty universal town read, Vaimes is a gimme. I think we need to take a close look at this group because most likely one of the three (Rhand, Mindreaver, and Proph) is scum. An interesting fact is that it was a universal approval. No one said No, which would be a great town-tell.
You start out the (entire game) analysis with the assumption that D_V is scum. Then you switch to "Okay, well we don't know at this point, but, after the fact, Vaimes is town and here I'll throw some dirt on D_V." And then you switch AGAIN to this time saying nothing outside everyone's status quo. The amount of information that you have just oscillates, with a lot of sheeping... Huh. Whatever. Everybody should already have been scumreading you most if not all of this entire game. #4)
Quest 4, Proposal 1 suffered from the same logic that Quest 2 Proposal 1 did. It took away one player and added two. Adding in two X factors seems to really make our player pool uncomfortable. This is especially important because on Quest 4 we are allowed one fail and still can pass. So if we have a guaranteed 1 fail in Quest 3, we basically have the same odds of doing an earlier successful quest and adding 1. If we add two, we have the potential of adding two scum in addition to the 1 potential scum already on the quest.
Keep in mind that without the vote order, this would have only not gone through by 1 vote: One of you, Rhand, Shadow, AG, Brinatoo, and Proph. To me, that was perfect. Because if exactly one of those people is town, that fits perfectly with the information that I've seen in this game. And Silver, D_V, Cantrip, Vaimes, and Mindreaver were all saying about the same around that time. Maybe it's just convenient that it matched up near perfectly with my reads. But that is incredibly suspicious to me. And the fact that Proph was the least certain about voting the way they did hammers it in even more.#5)
Obviously I hope it's me, but I would also accept Shadow.
Yeah, no. I'm certainly not putting you on a quest. If AG defaults, then I don't think that counts as unaccepted for the purpose of the 5 unaccepted quests. I don't remember if it came up earlier... Asking @iso. If it does, well, if my quest is vetoed, then Shadow can decide the game for you and your scumbuddies, and congratulations, I guess. If it does not, then at least there's a chance that Silver can propose a winning quest instead of one of y'all.#6)
Osi, You have a gift of making your posts completely unreadable and even harder to respond to. I've numbered the points I need to address in the spoiler quote.
#1) I don't even know what you mean here #2) I have a hard time following your point and logic chain and I don't know if it has to do with the fact that while I was writing my vote analysis there were 19 posts. Or the fact that DV has since been counter claimed? Remember this is a vote analysis from my perspective... today, not when it happened. #3) Quest 2, Proposal 2 was Quest 1 + Vaimes, which is the statistically safer play than Quest 2, Proposal 1, which was Quest 1 -1/+2 #4) This is some serious gibberish here. DV was not on Quest 3. Your comment right there is the definition of throwing shade. You actually don't say anything, but mudslinging at me. Go back and read it again. You call me a sheep, but don't say what I'm sheeping. You say I'm throwing dirt on DV, but over the course of the game I have made a VERY legitimate case against DV. Me pointing out the fact that he is clearly scum, is NOT throwing dirt on him. You say everyone should already be scum reading me. You say my information oscillates, I don't even know what you mean by that, but it sounds negative to me. That is the definition of mudslinging/throwing dirt, whatever. #5) Reposting this:
Yes (2): osieorb18, Mindreaver
No (6): AtheistGod, Brinatoo, shadowlancerx, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Prophylaxis, Rhand
This is missing votes from, Cantrip, Vaimes and Silver. Vaimes surely would have said no. Cantrip said in post #1054 that he would most likely vote no on the principal that DV proposed it. Silver actually voted Yes, then unvoted. So you're saying that that quest just narrowly missed firing? You keep saying that this person said this and another person said that, but you're not actually using what they said to make any sense. If you want to make a case, then use the actual information and don't just write, "the stuff they were saying" or "my feelings at the time". #6) Well AG isn't defaulting, if he did it would not count against our veto total (remember that happened at the beginning of the game too). This is about the only valid point you made this whole post. However, I'm confident that Shadow is town. I'm thinking AG is and doubt you (Osi) are, so really we have a pretty good shot at not having to worry about 5 consecutive vetoes at all.
@AG, Osie, Shadow: are you all scumreading Cantrip?
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
I would fully support this proposal, should you propose it, but I doubt that is a great shock to anyone.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@AG, Osie, Shadow: are you all scumreading Cantrip?
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
I'm ok with Proph coming off, but Terry seems risky. If Proph isn't scum, I think this gets two fails.
What do you think the scum team is that causes that proposal to fail?
First off, please quote correctly rather than using modtext. From the forum rules:
[mod]Bold red[/mod] and the [mod] tag are reserved for moderator use. Bold red text can easily be misinterpreted as moderator action and thus isn't permitted.
[/quote][quote from "Osieorb18 »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/768050-avalon-mafia-quest-4-party-selection?comment=1340"]
#4) This is some serious gibberish here. DV was not on Quest 3. Your comment right there is the definition of throwing shade. You actually don't say anything, but mudslinging at me. Go back and read it again. You call me a sheep, but don't say what I'm sheeping. You say I'm throwing dirt on DV, but over the course of the game I have made a VERY legitimate case against DV. Me pointing out the fact that he is clearly scum, is NOT throwing dirt on him. You say everyone should already be scum reading me. You say my information oscillates, I don't even know what you mean by that, but it sounds negative to me. That is the definition of mudslinging/throwing dirt, whatever.
... It's as if you didn't actually read the post. But here's how that point was split up:
Your Q1 logic: "You start out the (entire game) analysis with the assumption that D_V is scum." Your Q2 logic: Then you switch to "Okay, well we don't know at this point, but, after the fact, Vaimes is town and here I'll throw some dirt on D_V." Your Q3 logic: And then you switch AGAIN to this time saying nothing outside everyone's status quo.
In general: The amount of information that you have just oscillates, with a lot of sheeping... Huh. Whatever. Everybody should already have been scumreading you most if not all of this entire game.
This is missing votes from, Cantrip, Vaimes and Silver. Vaimes surely would have said no. Cantrip said in post #1054 that he would most likely vote no on the principal that DV proposed it. Silver actually voted Yes, then unvoted. So you're saying that that quest just narrowly missed firing? You keep saying that this person said this and another person said that, but you're not actually using what they said to make any sense. If you want to make a case, then use the actual information and don't just write, "the stuff they were saying" or "my feelings at the time".
Okay, sure. I'll take the actual posts from voting on D_V's quest proposal. Here we go:
Count: 6 No (one uncertain), 3 Yes, 1 Abs (Yes inclination), 1 Abs (unvote from Yes)
So, exactly as I said in my post, if one person changed over from no to yes, D_V's proposal would have gone through.
And towards the other point I made there: All five of the people on whom I had scumleans/scumreads at that point, plus Proph, who was uncertain, were the no votes on that quest proposal.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I want to see more votes before I do anything but I'm still leaning yes.
I'm somewhat concerned by a potential AG/shadow/Terry team but. At some point I'll just have to accept that I can't know for sure one way or the other and take the chance.
Yeah, Terry's inclusion without knowing which of Rhand/Proph/Mind threw the Q3 fail makes me nervous. Still not enough time to go into detail, so I'll do that tomorrow. For now,
Hard to care about this game when I'm like. Discouraged from giving reads.
If it helps, doing nothing probably implies things in the same way that doing things does. Not voting, might indicate you're waiting for your Merlin candidates to weigh in. While voting might give them cover to vote themselves. Or changing your vote after random people, might also be a strong play.
Have zero motivation to play the game anymore, and I know catching up is going to take a lot of time which I don't really have. Was never really "in" it to begin with, and was mostly ignoring the thread because I felt as though I could never catch up on this game.
I would go ahead and vote no on this quest due to it having whoever failed Q3 + Terry/shadow (who I think are scum) but lol my opinions.
I enjoy playing games with you, just that I didn't have a lot of time to commit to this one, and the Avalon gimmick is something I do not find appealing. Oh well, I've learned what I like and what I dislike.
@AG, Osie, Shadow: are you all scumreading Cantrip?
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
I'm ok with Proph coming off, but Terry seems risky. If Proph isn't scum, I think this gets two fails.
What do you think the scum team is that causes that proposal to fail?
Have zero motivation to play the game anymore, and I know catching up is going to take a lot of time which I don't really have. Was never really "in" it to begin with, and was mostly ignoring the thread because I felt as though I could never catch up on this game.
I know exactly how you feel, and I've been staying caught up. :/
Quote from Proph »
I would go ahead and vote no on this quest due to it having whoever failed Q3 + Terry/shadow (who I think are scum) but lol my opinions.
I would encourage you to go ahead and vote so that we're not missing your current stance, given that it will probably be ridiculously hard to find a replacement who can read the game, form an oppinion, AND vote before deadline.
We need votes here. Who are we missing? I show:
AG Quest Proposal: Vaimes, Mindreaver, Rhand, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, shadowlancerx, Silvercrys3467
No: Osie, Cantrip, Proph (in spirit)
Yes: Shadow, Rhand, Silver (in spirit), Mind, Terry (in spirit)
I'm over it. If shadow is town, we win unless it's Rhand/Terry. And I'm pretty sure Rhand is town.
If shadow is scum, voting no loses anyway because he's ~probably scum with Osi and can force a quest through because he's #5.
Osi won't propose Q3+AG even if he is town because AG is basically confirmed scum to him by way of the last couple nominations making them a dichotomy.
So... basically, I'm stuck, but I don't think it matters whether this proposal passes or fails because if shadow is scum it's over either way.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Uhhh
I had 3 small marks for MTG ban system so I got auto banned.
Frick if I know. Every time I get excited that I may have solved something, I think "ok, now we just have to see if he flips town or scum, and we're set" and then it hits me again that I'm never going to see a flip until it's far too late. But I feel that it's very likely that Terry and Brin are scum. For the Q2 fail, I'd say DV over Shadow. For the Q3 fail...probably Proph, but that's mostly because of behavioral. The last scum...I don't know. If it's Silver, I'll be floored.
I'm ok with Proph coming off, but Terry seems risky. If Proph isn't scum, I think this gets two fails.
If you're right, I'd say that Osie's more likely the second town than AG.
I'm feeling rather dense for having to ask this, but how does that help?
EWP: @DV: Oh, sorry. Well, know you were missed.
Also Terry said no one voted against it, which isn't completely accurate.
Waiting one people to come back I guess and read what they said. Sad that I was gone for a week and virtually nothing happened.
#1) I don't even know what you mean here
#2) I have a hard time following your point and logic chain and I don't know if it has to do with the fact that while I was writing my vote analysis there were 19 posts. Or the fact that DV has since been counter claimed? Remember this is a vote analysis from my perspective... today, not when it happened.
#3) Quest 2, Proposal 2 was Quest 1 + Vaimes, which is the statistically safer play than Quest 2, Proposal 1, which was Quest 1 -1/+2
#4) This is some serious gibberish here. DV was not on Quest 3. Your comment right there is the definition of throwing shade. You actually don't say anything, but mudslinging at me. Go back and read it again. You call me a sheep, but don't say what I'm sheeping. You say I'm throwing dirt on DV, but over the course of the game I have made a VERY legitimate case against DV. Me pointing out the fact that he is clearly scum, is NOT throwing dirt on him. You say everyone should already be scum reading me. You say my information oscillates, I don't even know what you mean by that, but it sounds negative to me. That is the definition of mudslinging/throwing dirt, whatever.
#5) Reposting this:
Yes (2): osieorb18, Mindreaver
No (6): AtheistGod, Brinatoo, shadowlancerx, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Prophylaxis, Rhand
This is missing votes from, Cantrip, Vaimes and Silver. Vaimes surely would have said no. Cantrip said in post #1054 that he would most likely vote no on the principal that DV proposed it. Silver actually voted Yes, then unvoted. So you're saying that that quest just narrowly missed firing? You keep saying that this person said this and another person said that, but you're not actually using what they said to make any sense. If you want to make a case, then use the actual information and don't just write, "the stuff they were saying" or "my feelings at the time".
#6) Well AG isn't defaulting, if he did it would not count against our veto total (remember that happened at the beginning of the game too). This is about the only valid point you made this whole post. However, I'm confident that Shadow is town. I'm thinking AG is and doubt you (Osi) are, so really we have a pretty good shot at not having to worry about 5 consecutive vetoes at all.
AtheistGod has approximately 30 hours to select a Questing party.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
What do you think the scum team is that causes that proposal to fail?
is your friend.
... It's as if you didn't actually read the post. But here's how that point was split up:
Your Q1 logic: "You start out the (entire game) analysis with the assumption that D_V is scum."
Your Q2 logic: Then you switch to "Okay, well we don't know at this point, but, after the fact, Vaimes is town and here I'll throw some dirt on D_V."
Your Q3 logic: And then you switch AGAIN to this time saying nothing outside everyone's status quo.
In general: The amount of information that you have just oscillates, with a lot of sheeping... Huh. Whatever. Everybody should already have been scumreading you most if not all of this entire game.
Okay, sure. I'll take the actual posts from voting on D_V's quest proposal. Here we go:
AG's No vote.
Let's keep a count up, since apparently you didn't realize this the first time! 1 No, 0 Yes
Osi's Yes vote.
Count: 1 No, 1 Yes
Brinatoo's No vote.
Count: 2 No, 1 Yes
Shadow's No vote.
Count: 3 No, 1 Yes
Mindreaver's Yes vote.
Count: 3 No, 2 Yes
Terry's No vote.
Count: 4 No, 2 Yes
Proph's (Uncertain) No vote.
Count: 5 No (one uncertain), 2 Yes
Silver's original Yes vote.
Count: 5 No (one uncertain), 3 Yes
Cantrip's Yes vote.
Count: 5 No (one uncertain), 4 Yes
Silver's Unvote. (Does not preclude a remaining yes inclination)
Count: 5 No (one uncertain), 3 Yes, 1 Abs (unvote from Yes)
Vaimes's Yes inclination.
Count: 5 No (one uncertain), 3 Yes, 1 Abs (Yes inclination), 1 Abs (unvote from Yes)
Rhand's No vote.
Count: 6 No (one uncertain), 3 Yes, 1 Abs (Yes inclination), 1 Abs (unvote from Yes)
So, exactly as I said in my post, if one person changed over from no to yes, D_V's proposal would have gone through.
And towards the other point I made there: All five of the people on whom I had scumleans/scumreads at that point, plus Proph, who was uncertain, were the no votes on that quest proposal.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Mostly V/LA until Monday.
I want to see more votes before I do anything but I'm still leaning yes.
I'm somewhat concerned by a potential AG/shadow/Terry team but. At some point I'll just have to accept that I can't know for sure one way or the other and take the chance.
Hard to care about this game when I'm like. Discouraged from giving reads.
You don't have to say anything about Merlin/Morg, but your opinion would be appreciated. Even if it's brief/vague/whatever.
^
Vote No
Be Dionysus.
We have like, 40 hours left or something right?
I'll probably vote tomorrow.
Have zero motivation to play the game anymore, and I know catching up is going to take a lot of time which I don't really have. Was never really "in" it to begin with, and was mostly ignoring the thread because I felt as though I could never catch up on this game.
I would go ahead and vote no on this quest due to it having whoever failed Q3 + Terry/shadow (who I think are scum) but lol my opinions.
Have fun, good luck, win it.
I enjoy playing games with you, just that I didn't have a lot of time to commit to this one, and the Avalon gimmick is something I do not find appealing. Oh well, I've learned what I like and what I dislike.
/barn, but I think he should wait until most players have voted.
Are you barning here? Why?
I know exactly how you feel, and I've been staying caught up. :/
I would encourage you to go ahead and vote so that we're not missing your current stance, given that it will probably be ridiculously hard to find a replacement who can read the game, form an oppinion, AND vote before deadline.
We need votes here. Who are we missing? I show:
AG Quest Proposal: Vaimes, Mindreaver, Rhand, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, shadowlancerx, Silvercrys3467
No: Osie, Cantrip, Proph (in spirit)
Yes: Shadow, Rhand, Silver (in spirit), Mind, Terry (in spirit)
We need:
DV
Brin
Vaimes
C'mon, guys. Clock's ticking.
@Proph: Do you think DV is town?
I'm over it. If shadow is town, we win unless it's Rhand/Terry. And I'm pretty sure Rhand is town.
If shadow is scum, voting no loses anyway because he's ~probably scum with Osi and can force a quest through because he's #5.
Osi won't propose Q3+AG even if he is town because AG is basically confirmed scum to him by way of the last couple nominations making them a dichotomy.
So... basically, I'm stuck, but I don't think it matters whether this proposal passes or fails because if shadow is scum it's over either way.
Unvote, Vote Yes
*crosses fingers*
Did you hammer for a scum win?
Otherwise he would have said GG, right?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
What the... I mean, it's over... No?
If both you and Terry were town, this game was even sillier than it looked.