I tore the pages out of my work notebook so I can post that tonight when I get home. Since I have Friday off, I can read the rest of the game sometime in the afternoon and I'll post the rest of my thoughts.
You promised content, but the only thing you gave us so far is highly lacking. Why?
I'm thinking that maybe there is a jailer, and D_V was jailed, and he had to have scarbo make the kill. And if scarbo wouldn't be able to roleblock the same night he performed a kill, they could very well both be scum gambiting. This assumes we have a jailer though, and also that scarbo is lying, which I'm not totally sure of. Just popped in my head and it's got me thinking.
I'm thinking that maybe there is a jailer, and D_V was jailed, and he had to have scarbo make the kill. And if scarbo wouldn't be able to roleblock the same night he performed a kill, they could very well both be scum gambiting. This assumes we have a jailer though, and also that scarbo is lying, which I'm not totally sure of. Just popped in my head and it's got me thinking.
Actually, I don't think the above makes sense, because there was no night kill. So for them to both be scum would require scarbo to be lying, to not have roleblocked, and for the doctor to have protected the scum's choice, which makes me pretty confident they aren't both scum, unless scarbo is just straight up lying.
So, are they both town? For them to both be town, we still have to explain the kill. Since we know the kill wasn't stopped by scarbo roleblocking the player making the kill, it means that either D_V was the kill, scum didn't kill at all, or we have a town doctor, jailer, and roleblocker. I don't believe this is true at all, as the three roles together would be way overpowered for town, so I think that they both can't be town.
Is scarbo scum then? For scarbo to be scum, he would really have to prove he can roleblock, right? Maybe not necessarily, but he would be putting himself in a weird spot. Even if he does prove he can roleblock, that again could mean he's a scum roleblocker. If D_V is telling the truth and there is a town jailer, I would obviously assume that scarbo then is scum. If the jailer is scum, scarbo would be confirmed town to me.
From the above conclusions, I think that lynching D_V may actually be our best bet. I was stuck between rallying for a jailer claim, but it seems that it wouldn't be a profitable choice for town. If D_V is lying about being jailed, he's more likely scum than not. If D_V's not lying about being jailed and is town, he flips town, then we know that scarbo is probably scum, because as described above I don't think they can both be town together. So in our absolute worst case scenario, D_V flips town, we lynch scarbo tomorrow and hit scum?
Absolutely feel free to correct any flaws in this thought process, I'm almost talking to myself to really get my thoughts more clear, but I do think the above makes sense unless I'm missing something.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
How genuine is this reading to everyone else? How's everyone feel about the vote attached? I'm not just asking because it's me, but Anak even admits that "Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up", and the timing of it alongside the rest on my wagon really felt forced and fake to me.
The last line, "Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually," read to me as Anak almost panicking that a buddy might be outed.
So, are they both town? For them to both be town, we still have to explain the kill. Since we know the kill wasn't stopped by scarbo roleblocking the player making the kill, it means that either D_V was the kill, scum didn't kill at all, or we have a town doctor, jailer, and roleblocker. I don't believe this is true at all, as the three roles together would be way overpowered for town, so I think that they both can't be town.
When you say "are they both town" are you talking about Scarbo and DV or Scarbo and the Jailer? If Scarbo and DV, then yes, they could both be town and DV was the NK target. You mention this possibility, but then dismiss it and say they can't both be town? Why?
IF DV wasn't the NK target, then Scarbo and DV could still both be town if we also have a Doctor, but, like I mentioned earlier, that would be THREE denial roles in one game, which is really "no"-heavy. I think it's more likely that DV was the NK target than that we have a Doctor in addition to a roleblocker and a jailer.
Quote from Ghosting »
Is scarbo scum then? For scarbo to be [town], he would really have to prove he can roleblock, right? Maybe not necessarily, but he would be putting himself in a weird spot. Even if he does prove he can roleblock, that again could mean he's a scum roleblocker. If D_V is telling the truth and there is a town jailer, I would obviously assume that scarbo then is scum. If the jailer is scum, scarbo would be confirmed town to me.
But DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer doesn't make the jailer town. So DV telling the truth =/= scum!Scarbo. I agree that scum!Jailer makes Scarbo near-conf!Town, and scum!Scarbo makes any jailer near-conf!Town. It would surprise me if they're both town, but I guess it's possible. Just unlikely.
Quote from Ghosting »
From the above conclusions, I think that lynching D_V may actually be our best bet. I was stuck between rallying for a jailer claim, but it seems that it wouldn't be a profitable choice for town. If D_V is lying about being jailed, he's more likely scum than not. If D_V's not lying about being jailed and is town, he flips town, then we know that scarbo is probably scum, because as described above I don't think they can both be town together. So in our absolute worst case scenario, D_V flips town, we lynch scarbo tomorrow and hit scum?
No! See above. DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer does NOT mean that Scarbo is scum.
When you say "are they both town" are you talking about Scarbo and DV or Scarbo and the Jailer? If Scarbo and DV, then yes, they could both be town and DV was the NK target. You mention this possibility, but then dismiss it and say they can't both be town? Why?
Well, for a few reasons. I don't really believe that D_V was chosen by both the jailer and scum to be the NK. For two players to pick the same player, and D_V of all players, just seems pretty unlikely; I have a hard time believing he was both killed and protected with his play up to that point. If we assume there is no jailer, then D_V is lying, so obviously in that case I'm assuming he's scum. Essentially, we're asked to believe either that D_V was the NK and protected from the NK, or he's lying, right? How do those odds look to you?
IF DV wasn't the NK target, then Scarbo and DV could still both be town if we also have a Doctor, but, like I mentioned earlier, that would be THREE denial roles in one game, which is really "no"-heavy. I think it's more likely that DV was the NK target than that we have a Doctor in addition to a roleblocker and a jailer.
I agree that it's unlikely we have a jailer, a roleblocker, and a doctor, so as I mentioned yeah I definitely agree that it's unlikely they're both town. Since you seem to agree, don't you also agree that lynching D_V could mean automatically finding scum (Scarbo)?
But DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer doesn't make the jailer town. So DV telling the truth =/= scum!Scarbo. I agree that scum!Jailer makes Scarbo near-conf!Town, and scum!Scarbo makes any jailer near-conf!Town. It would surprise me if they're both town, but I guess it's possible. Just unlikely.
I thought it was established a scum jailer was fairly unlikely? Also, when I said "if D_V is telling the truth and there is a town jailer", I literally meant if there is a town jailer. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
No! See above. DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer does NOT mean that Scarbo is scum.
Well, it means that if D_V flips town, either Scarbo is scum, or that there's a scum jailer, correct? Which do you think would be more likely?
Also, if you think it's likely at least one of them is scum (you said it'd be unlikely and surprise you if they're both town), would you rather lynch scarbo first? Your thinking leads me to believe you'd want at least one of them dead.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
How genuine is this reading to everyone else? How's everyone feel about the vote attached? I'm not just asking because it's me, but Anak even admits that "Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up", and the timing of it alongside the rest on my wagon really felt forced and fake to me.
The last line, "Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually," read to me as Anak almost panicking that a buddy might be outed.
I was panicking, we were talking about trying to out our PRs for some silly reason. Then Scarbo went and claimed for who knows why, all that did was go and paint a target on his face.
Or he's scum RB who is using the I targeted nobody escuse to townfirm himself, but let's save that wine for later.
Literally nothing about DV had to be figured out today, yet people are supporting people out to potentially clear him. The cost is they will be the ones who are NKd instead of potentially our VTs.
You specifically I called out because you went so far as recommending the doc to claim if no jailer. I literally can't think of why a town would want their doc to claim on D2.
I don't see scum Ophidia playing the aimless and lost card as scum here. Draws too much attention to themselves, as a newer player you wouldn't want to appear that way.
I was panicking, we were talking about trying to out our PRs for some silly reason. Then Scarbo went and claimed for who knows why, all that did was go and paint a target on his face.
Or he's scum RB who is using the I targeted nobody escuse to townfirm himself, but let's save that wine for later.
Literally nothing about DV had to be figured out today, yet people are supporting people out to potentially clear him. The cost is they will be the ones who are NKd instead of potentially our VTs.
You specifically I called out because you went so far as recommending the doc to claim if no jailer. I literally can't think of why a town would want their doc to claim on D2.
Well I already explained how I didn't say the doc should claim, but rather than if we get to the point where we're wondering about a doctor, we can think about it then, but I explained and emphasized how roleblocker is what we want a claim from.
Anyway, how do you feel then about D_V/Scarbo? You say we don't need to figure out D_V today, which just reads to me as you wanting to delay D_V's death. If you don't feel we need to know anything about D_V today, how do you figure we proceed? Do you not agree that figuring out D_V today could figure out Scarbo's alignment, D_V's alignment, the validity of jailer, etc?
You want to save Scarbo and D_V for later, do you think they're both town somehow? If not, then do you think at least one of them is scum? If you think both are town, please refer to earlier where I highly how unlikely that would be. But I want your take on that.
Say I claim Jailer, and I targeted DV last night, and DV confirms that. That does ***** all to determine his alignment, as he could be town or scum, like it doesn't determine anything.
Scarbo is probably scum, who tried to buy towncred claiming RB, but didn't want to out himself by claiming a target that someone could disprove. Sure, town RB could also fall in to that, but a town RB doesn't do nothing on N1 then claim the next day, they look for someone to block.
Say I claim Jailer, and I targeted DV last night, and DV confirms that. That does ***** all to determine his alignment, as he could be town or scum, like it doesn't determine anything.
Scarbo is probably scum, who tried to buy towncred claiming RB, but didn't want to out himself by claiming a target that someone could disprove. Sure, town RB could also fall in to that, but a town RB doesn't do nothing on N1 then claim the next day, they look for someone to block.
So why aren't you voting Scarbo?
Do you think there is a jailer in this game? If so, do you think they're town?
If someone comes out and says they're the jailer, we lynch the jailer or the roleblocker, because clearly at that points it's more likely that one of them is scum.
If we don't have the jailer claim, we either lynch Scarbo and: 1) find out he was telling the truth and lost the roleblocker, then lynch D_V? or 2) find out he was lying and we lynched scum. Or, we lynch D_V and 1) find out he was town and that Scarbo is probably scum, or 2) find out he's scum and we lynched scum and also clear Scarbo because if he's scum and there's no jailer, Scarbo is probably telling the truth about being the RB. Any disagreements there?
Say I claim Jailer, and I targeted DV last night, and DV confirms that. That does ***** all to determine his alignment, as he could be town or scum, like it doesn't determine anything.
Scarbo is probably scum, who tried to buy towncred claiming RB, but didn't want to out himself by claiming a target that someone could disprove. Sure, town RB could also fall in to that, but a town RB doesn't do nothing on N1 then claim the next day, they look for someone to block.
Also as scum, why do you think Scarbo would claim roleblocker under no pressure unless he actually was, in case town counter claims in any way to make him outed. With one scum killed yesterday, do you genuinely think this is likely?
We know that DV is not the jailer, so lynching him isn't an option. If jailer claims yes one of them and the RB is scum, but have fun with that coin flip. I think Scarbo is scum yes, but that's based off his action last night and claim, which is pretty WIFOMy admittedly.
However I very strongly think you are scum, a read I am much more confident in than scarbo. That's why I am voting you, which should have been apparent
We know that DV is not the jailer, so lynching him isn't an option. If jailer claims yes one of them and the RB is scum, but have fun with that coin flip. I think Scarbo is scum yes, but that's based off his action last night and claim, which is pretty WIFOMy admittedly.
However I very strongly think you are scum, a read I am much more confident in than scarbo. That's why I am voting you, which should have been apparent
You think "very strongly" I'm scum? I thought it was because of my plan to out the RB? How does strongly thinking I'm scum relate to your read on Scarbo? Additionally, how are you scumreading me harder than scarbo, when you admit that you think he is scum based on his claim and lack of night action? Those two are less convincing than what you think is a player lying about a role to earn townpoints?
Why do you think it'd be a difficult coin flip? Town is definitely up this game, we can afford one town mislynch, if that worst case scenario is handed to us, but it would be 50/50 scum. Why do you think that would require luck, as if it wasn't incredibly in town's favour?
Do you feel that lynching me, vs. lynching of D_V/Scarbo, would provide more information despite the fact you claim to agree that one of jailer and the roleblocker should be scum, if they even both exist together?
Where did I say we should rush Scarbo? Pretty sure I never said that.
In a game with a jailer, why would Scarbo be worried about a CC?
You've shown no issues with lynching Scarbo, but have showed hesitation with D_V.
1) We don't know if there's a jailer. 2) There could be a roleblocker and Scarbo wouldn't know. 3) Again, why as scum would Scarbo claim roleblocker under no pressure with another scum buddy already dead?
One more question quickly: If you think I'm scum for planning to out the roleblocker, and now don't believe the roleblocker is even town, does that affect your original feelings?
Lets stop with the role analysis and do some actual behavior.
I'm pretty convinced with Scarbo's claim that I was the kill last night. (I'm baffled)
So...we have a town roleblocker and a town jailer? Or you think one of them's scum? If so, which?
@Ghosting: I'll try to look at it in more detail tonight, but I think you're tunneling on the situation to see only what you want to see. I don't think your plan is as foolproof as you sound convinced it is.
So...we have a town roleblocker and a town jailer? Or you think one of them's scum? If so, which?
@Ghosting: I'll try to look at it in more detail tonight, but I think you're tunneling on the situation to see only what you want to see. I don't think your plan is as foolproof as you sound convinced it is.
You might be right, which is why I wanted everyone else's opinions to weigh in on my interpretation of the events as well as their likelihood. After barely sleeping last night and overloading myself with caffeine to get through the MCAT today, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some tunneling.
I do however feel that it's pretty solid, and unless there's some flawed logic or thing I'm missing, I do feel confident with the ideas put forth. But like I said, definitely open to any criticism, obviously the goal here is to pick the best plan, not necessarily my initial iteration of a plan.
Yikes. I can't multiquote now because on phone but..
D_V reactions to the scarbo claim are horrible. He doesn't question his Jailor, he doesn't question Scarbo claim. He doesn't have that Townie confusion the rest of us has.
I just went from being pretty sure that D_V is town to being pretty sure he is scum.
Take away all the gambits and "why would claim this and that as scum", just look at the reactions.
Does anyone else see it?
Yikes. I can't multiquote now because on phone but..
D_V reactions to the scarbo claim are horrible. He doesn't question his Jailor, he doesn't question Scarbo claim. He doesn't have that Townie confusion the rest of us has.
I just went from being pretty sure that D_V is town to being pretty sure he is scum.
Take away all the gambits and "why would claim this and that as scum", just look at the reactions.
Does anyone else see it?
????
Please Iso me and say any of that again.
Literally the moment Scarbo said he had info I started doubting my jailer. Then scrabo, then it was pointed out to me that Scum jailer in normal was vastly uncommon. So I moved on.
Lame response.
It was also pointed just at much that there can't be both town RB and town Jailor. What makes you ignore this point and trust the other one (being scum!Jailor not making sense).
Lame response.
It was also pointed just at much that there can't be both town RB and town Jailor. What makes you ignore this point and trust the other one (being scum!Jailor not making sense).
That's a lame response.
One person said there couldn't be a town Rb and JAiler.
I don't agree.
Why do sheep them and not think for yourself? So why can't they both be town?
That or we simply have a doc. Or scum has a jailer and D_V is town.
Weren't you saying earlier that you thought D_V was town and pulling yet another gambit?
Yeah, but if we have a doc, then the likelihood of all three being town is WAAAAAAAAY low, right? In that case, the jailer is the most likely to be scum because of game design.
Yup. Which is why I really want a jailer claim. If D_V somehow dies without being able to tell us who the jailer was (if D_V is town), then we might be losing a huge opportunity to catch scum.
I’m starting to dislike Iso. His logic on Scarbo makes no sense. And Iso logic usually does make sense.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
How genuine is this reading to everyone else? How's everyone feel about the vote attached? I'm not just asking because it's me, but Anak even admits that "Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up", and the timing of it alongside the rest on my wagon really felt forced and fake to me.
The last line, "Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually," read to me as Anak almost panicking that a buddy might be outed.
I’ve said it before: this post is fearmongering. I would not at all be surprised if Anak is the scum jailer after this post.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
How genuine is this reading to everyone else? How's everyone feel about the vote attached? I'm not just asking because it's me, but Anak even admits that "Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up", and the timing of it alongside the rest on my wagon really felt forced and fake to me.
The last line, "Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually," read to me as Anak almost panicking that a buddy might be outed.
I was panicking, we were talking about trying to out our PRs for some silly reason. Then Scarbo went and claimed for who knows why, all that did was go and paint a target on his face.
Or he's scum RB who is using the I targeted nobody escuse to townfirm himself, but let's save that wine for later.
Literally nothing about DV had to be figured out today, yet people are supporting people out to potentially clear him. The cost is they will be the ones who are NKd instead of potentially our VTs.
You specifically I called out because you went so far as recommending the doc to claim if no jailer. I literally can't think of why a town would want their doc to claim on D2.
Why do you react when Ghosting calls you out on this post, but not when I did?
I have a hard time believing that you panicked for this while at the same time you accuse the claimed RB for being scum:
Say I claim Jailer, and I targeted DV last night, and DV confirms that. That does ***** all to determine his alignment, as he could be town or scum, like it doesn't determine anything.
Scarbo is probably scum, who tried to buy towncred claiming RB, but didn't want to out himself by claiming a target that someone could disprove. Sure, town RB could also fall in to that, but a town RB doesn't do nothing on N1 then claim the next day, they look for someone to block.
Funny tho how in one post you call it “wine” and in this one you go for it as a reason to lynch Scarbo.
We should be lynching Anak toDay. Both for his fearmongering and the opportunistic jump on Ghosting. (And for Red's behavior D1)
Ugh, first of all I remember on top of my head Rhand Iso and Ghosting all saying that, but I will put in the work and go through the posts to find it, even on mobile.
However that's not the issue! You are just accepting them both as town, you are not suspicious of them like town!D_V would be. Once scarbo claimed RB you just accepted it without questioning him? WHY? AND why would you not question your Jailor as scum when you were worried they might be (when you posted that T/S list) even BEFORE scarbo claimed. It just seems to me you know exactly what's going on and why. Town D_V would think and post about scarbo and the Jailor instead of changing the subject to Ophidia and Ghosting.
Basically my point is no way you believe them both to be town so easily without knowing something.
Posts:
#1127 Cantrip "If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. "
#1165 Rhand "I agree on a roleblocker claim. If we have one, then D_V should out the jailer because I'm pretty sure we won't have a RB AND Jailer in town"
#1171 Rodemy "Rb with a jailer? Yeah right."
#1184 Vaimes "shadow, I think scarbo is assuming that his own role means that there is no Jailer. Because two town Roleblockers is very unlikely. "
#1198 Cantrip "because it seems very unlikely that we have a roleblocker and a jailer that are both town"
#1199 Scarbo "A jailer claiming would a soft cc to me."
#1200 Iso: "If scarbo is truthful about being a Town Roleblocker, it's extremely unlikely that D_V's Jailer is town"
Probably missed some because phone + rushing but yeah..
@D_V I think its possible there can be town!RB and town!Jailor, however I think its more possible that there is town!RB and mafia!Jailor (or the opposite) for balance. Everyone else seems to agree. So, you can see why I am suspicious of you. So my question is this: Why do you think that both roles are more likely to be town than a combo of one mafia and one town?
@Rhand I'll read your post later, I think Anak might be mafia for the reaction to the RB claim plan but I need to re-read.
Posts:
#1127 Cantrip "If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. "
#1165 Rhand "I agree on a roleblocker claim. If we have one, then D_V should out the jailer because I'm pretty sure we won't have a RB AND Jailer in town"
#1171 Rodemy "Rb with a jailer? Yeah right."
#1184 Vaimes "shadow, I think scarbo is assuming that his own role means that there is no Jailer. Because two town Roleblockers is very unlikely. "
#1198 Cantrip "because it seems very unlikely that we have a roleblocker and a jailer that are both town"
#1199 Scarbo "A jailer claiming would a soft cc to me."
#1200 Iso: "If scarbo is truthful about being a Town Roleblocker, it's extremely unlikely that D_V's Jailer is town"
Probably missed some because phone + rushing but yeah..
Thanks for this. Add Ophidia's VT claim to that, and we almost know who the jailer is.
It is not Cantrip, me, Rodemy, Vaimes, Scarbo, Iso, D_V, Ophidia or you.
That leaves Anak and Hunt.
Or D_V is still lying... Which I'm starting to suspect more now that I've looked into Anak and Hunt's iso's. It's a silly thing, but the way D_V formatted the T/S he provided from the jailer is the same as D_V's own T/S list: He uses a "/" without spaces for replacements. I would imagine he would just copy-paste the T/S he got from his jailer and end up with their formatting.
I really, really think D_V should out the jailer now.
Possible scenario's:
* D_V is lying, he calls someone jailer who isn't. We lynch said person, see a wrong flip, lynch D_V toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, but the jailer is town. We lynch the jailer, lynch Scarbo toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, the jailer is scum. We lynch scum. Yay.
* We do have a jailer AND roleblocker in town. We lynch both. Boo. (but very unlikely)
Or D_V is still lying... Which I'm starting to suspect more now that I've looked into Anak and Hunt's iso's. It's a silly thing, but the way D_V formatted the T/S he provided from the jailer is the same as D_V's own T/S list: He uses a "/" without spaces for replacements. I would imagine he would just copy-paste the T/S he got from his jailer and end up with their formatting.
I don't believe DV.
But wait I do Believe DV.
There is a lot of this going around. Like literally 3 players doing this. Could all 3 players be scum?
Man you've been telling lies a whole day. Is it so weird that people don't know wether to believe you?
I seriously think you should claim who jailed you so we can get this behind us.
Posts:
#1127 Cantrip "If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. "
#1165 Rhand "I agree on a roleblocker claim. If we have one, then D_V should out the jailer because I'm pretty sure we won't have a RB AND Jailer in town"
#1171 Rodemy "Rb with a jailer? Yeah right."
#1184 Vaimes "shadow, I think scarbo is assuming that his own role means that there is no Jailer. Because two town Roleblockers is very unlikely. "
#1198 Cantrip "because it seems very unlikely that we have a roleblocker and a jailer that are both town"
#1199 Scarbo "A jailer claiming would a soft cc to me."
#1200 Iso: "If scarbo is truthful about being a Town Roleblocker, it's extremely unlikely that D_V's Jailer is town"
Probably missed some because phone + rushing but yeah..
Thanks for this. Add Ophidia's VT claim to that, and we almost know who the jailer is.
It is not Cantrip, me, Rodemy, Vaimes, Scarbo, Iso, D_V, Ophidia or you.
That leaves Anak and Hunt.
You forgot Ghosting and Shadow. Plus, someone above could be the jailer and asserting that they think Scarbo is scum. Regardless, if there's a jailer, I think I know who it is.
Quote from Rhand »
Or D_V is still lying... Which I'm starting to suspect more now that I've looked into Anak and Hunt's iso's. It's a silly thing, but the way D_V formatted the T/S he provided from the jailer is the same as D_V's own T/S list: He uses a "/" without spaces for replacements. I would imagine he would just copy-paste the T/S he got from his jailer and end up with their formatting.
DV *did* say that the jailer had himself at highest town slot, and DV moved him to protect his anonymity, but I agree that were it me, I probably would have just copy-pasted that one person's name to a different location. But if DV really thought he was town, maybe he went the extra mile to reformat it as he would his own? Eh, not sure it's significant.
Quote from Rhand »
I really, really think D_V should out the jailer now.
Possible scenario's:
* D_V is lying, he calls someone jailer who isn't. We lynch said person, see a wrong flip, lynch D_V toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, but the jailer is town. We lynch the jailer, lynch Scarbo toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, the jailer is scum. We lynch scum. Yay.
* We do have a jailer AND roleblocker in town. We lynch both. Boo. (but very unlikely)
This was my initial thought process (well, similar, anyway); the only thing that makes me pause is the lack of nightkill. If Scarbo didn't use his ability, then DV was likely the NK target...which would make the jailer town. That said, I don't think lynching Scarbo first is the right play, either.
So unless there is something else that stopped the kill, there is a jailer, which means:
-If DV was scum and not the jailer, the jailer would be dead.
-If the jailer was scum and not DV, They would know to not shoot at DV.
-If they are scum together, why would DV have said any of this?
_______________________________________
Unless someone has good reason to believe that town has both a jailer and a RB, then scarbo is the best lynch today.
I think someone needs to re-state the logic of scum!DV here. If there is any.
Someone could argue that DV was going to be lynched toDay because Rod CC'd him and DV needed a way to soft townfirm himself, but we can all agree that this has been the most convoluted way to go about it.
Oh right I completely forgot that D_V couldn't have been the NK with a scum Jailer (unless they're pulling a weird gambit). Thx Cantrip.
I seriously can't wrap my head around this situation.
@Shadow: why would Scarbo counterclaim the jailer as scum? That makes no sense.
I think we should lynch Vaimes or Anak (preferably Anak) toDay and massclaim toMorrow.
Wait, if the Jailer revealed themselves to DV and DV is scum, then they totally could have killed the Jailer last Night.
shadow, in an uncomfortable turn of events, I want to buddy you. Or more specifically your brain.
Which makes it more likely D_V is lying, which the roleblocker claim supports as well, hence me thinking D_V is a better choice today than Scarbo. He's also lied more than once in the past, has been opportunistic, etc., so it's not even just this whole mess alone that warrants it. Lynching Scarbo first is stupid when he's much more likely to be telling the truth and also actually a power role. Plus, as I've explained in greath depth, we just lynch the other one tomorrow anyway, so order of events wise, it definitely makes sense to go with D_V first.
I support an Anak lynch, but I still feel pretty strongly that we need to address D_V/Scarbo first. I'm going to place my vote on D_V for now, I'm more than comfortable having it there and feel it's certainly warranted. If we lynch D_V and he flips scum, it's pretty obvious Anak is scum at that point, and we clear our roleblocker as well.
I want to wait with the whole Scarbo / D_V thing until we massclaimed. Which we shouldn't do toDay.
Knowing all the roles we have will hopefully shed the necessary light on the situation.
I want to wait with the whole Scarbo / D_V thing until we massclaimed. Which we shouldn't do toDay.
Knowing all the roles we have will hopefully shed the necessary light on the situation.
Agreed. This seems the smartest move.
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You promised content, but the only thing you gave us so far is highly lacking. Why?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
But then what stopped the kill?
So, are they both town? For them to both be town, we still have to explain the kill. Since we know the kill wasn't stopped by scarbo roleblocking the player making the kill, it means that either D_V was the kill, scum didn't kill at all, or we have a town doctor, jailer, and roleblocker. I don't believe this is true at all, as the three roles together would be way overpowered for town, so I think that they both can't be town.
Is scarbo scum then? For scarbo to be scum, he would really have to prove he can roleblock, right? Maybe not necessarily, but he would be putting himself in a weird spot. Even if he does prove he can roleblock, that again could mean he's a scum roleblocker. If D_V is telling the truth and there is a town jailer, I would obviously assume that scarbo then is scum. If the jailer is scum, scarbo would be confirmed town to me.
From the above conclusions, I think that lynching D_V may actually be our best bet. I was stuck between rallying for a jailer claim, but it seems that it wouldn't be a profitable choice for town. If D_V is lying about being jailed, he's more likely scum than not. If D_V's not lying about being jailed and is town, he flips town, then we know that scarbo is probably scum, because as described above I don't think they can both be town together. So in our absolute worst case scenario, D_V flips town, we lynch scarbo tomorrow and hit scum?
Absolutely feel free to correct any flaws in this thought process, I'm almost talking to myself to really get my thoughts more clear, but I do think the above makes sense unless I'm missing something.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
How genuine is this reading to everyone else? How's everyone feel about the vote attached? I'm not just asking because it's me, but Anak even admits that "Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up", and the timing of it alongside the rest on my wagon really felt forced and fake to me.
The last line, "Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually," read to me as Anak almost panicking that a buddy might be outed.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
IF DV wasn't the NK target, then Scarbo and DV could still both be town if we also have a Doctor, but, like I mentioned earlier, that would be THREE denial roles in one game, which is really "no"-heavy. I think it's more likely that DV was the NK target than that we have a Doctor in addition to a roleblocker and a jailer.
But DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer doesn't make the jailer town. So DV telling the truth =/= scum!Scarbo. I agree that scum!Jailer makes Scarbo near-conf!Town, and scum!Scarbo makes any jailer near-conf!Town. It would surprise me if they're both town, but I guess it's possible. Just unlikely.
No! See above. DV telling the truth about the presence of a jailer does NOT mean that Scarbo is scum.
Well, for a few reasons. I don't really believe that D_V was chosen by both the jailer and scum to be the NK. For two players to pick the same player, and D_V of all players, just seems pretty unlikely; I have a hard time believing he was both killed and protected with his play up to that point. If we assume there is no jailer, then D_V is lying, so obviously in that case I'm assuming he's scum. Essentially, we're asked to believe either that D_V was the NK and protected from the NK, or he's lying, right? How do those odds look to you?
I agree that it's unlikely we have a jailer, a roleblocker, and a doctor, so as I mentioned yeah I definitely agree that it's unlikely they're both town. Since you seem to agree, don't you also agree that lynching D_V could mean automatically finding scum (Scarbo)?
I thought it was established a scum jailer was fairly unlikely? Also, when I said "if D_V is telling the truth and there is a town jailer", I literally meant if there is a town jailer. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
Well, it means that if D_V flips town, either Scarbo is scum, or that there's a scum jailer, correct? Which do you think would be more likely?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I was panicking, we were talking about trying to out our PRs for some silly reason. Then Scarbo went and claimed for who knows why, all that did was go and paint a target on his face.
Or he's scum RB who is using the I targeted nobody escuse to townfirm himself, but let's save that wine for later.
Literally nothing about DV had to be figured out today, yet people are supporting people out to potentially clear him. The cost is they will be the ones who are NKd instead of potentially our VTs.
You specifically I called out because you went so far as recommending the doc to claim if no jailer. I literally can't think of why a town would want their doc to claim on D2.
I don't see scum Ophidia playing the aimless and lost card as scum here. Draws too much attention to themselves, as a newer player you wouldn't want to appear that way.
Well I already explained how I didn't say the doc should claim, but rather than if we get to the point where we're wondering about a doctor, we can think about it then, but I explained and emphasized how roleblocker is what we want a claim from.
Anyway, how do you feel then about D_V/Scarbo? You say we don't need to figure out D_V today, which just reads to me as you wanting to delay D_V's death. If you don't feel we need to know anything about D_V today, how do you figure we proceed? Do you not agree that figuring out D_V today could figure out Scarbo's alignment, D_V's alignment, the validity of jailer, etc?
You want to save Scarbo and D_V for later, do you think they're both town somehow? If not, then do you think at least one of them is scum? If you think both are town, please refer to earlier where I highly how unlikely that would be. But I want your take on that.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Scarbo is probably scum, who tried to buy towncred claiming RB, but didn't want to out himself by claiming a target that someone could disprove. Sure, town RB could also fall in to that, but a town RB doesn't do nothing on N1 then claim the next day, they look for someone to block.
So why aren't you voting Scarbo?
Do you think there is a jailer in this game? If so, do you think they're town?
If someone comes out and says they're the jailer, we lynch the jailer or the roleblocker, because clearly at that points it's more likely that one of them is scum.
If we don't have the jailer claim, we either lynch Scarbo and: 1) find out he was telling the truth and lost the roleblocker, then lynch D_V? or 2) find out he was lying and we lynched scum. Or, we lynch D_V and 1) find out he was town and that Scarbo is probably scum, or 2) find out he's scum and we lynched scum and also clear Scarbo because if he's scum and there's no jailer, Scarbo is probably telling the truth about being the RB. Any disagreements there?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Also as scum, why do you think Scarbo would claim roleblocker under no pressure unless he actually was, in case town counter claims in any way to make him outed. With one scum killed yesterday, do you genuinely think this is likely?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
However I very strongly think you are scum, a read I am much more confident in than scarbo. That's why I am voting you, which should have been apparent
Where did I say we should rush Scarbo? Pretty sure I never said that.
In a game with a jailer, why would Scarbo be worried about a CC?
You think "very strongly" I'm scum? I thought it was because of my plan to out the RB? How does strongly thinking I'm scum relate to your read on Scarbo? Additionally, how are you scumreading me harder than scarbo, when you admit that you think he is scum based on his claim and lack of night action? Those two are less convincing than what you think is a player lying about a role to earn townpoints?
Why do you think it'd be a difficult coin flip? Town is definitely up this game, we can afford one town mislynch, if that worst case scenario is handed to us, but it would be 50/50 scum. Why do you think that would require luck, as if it wasn't incredibly in town's favour?
Do you feel that lynching me, vs. lynching of D_V/Scarbo, would provide more information despite the fact you claim to agree that one of jailer and the roleblocker should be scum, if they even both exist together?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
You've shown no issues with lynching Scarbo, but have showed hesitation with D_V.
1) We don't know if there's a jailer. 2) There could be a roleblocker and Scarbo wouldn't know. 3) Again, why as scum would Scarbo claim roleblocker under no pressure with another scum buddy already dead?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
GUYs.
Lets stop with the role analysis and do some actual behavior.
I'm pretty convinced with Scarbo's claim that I was the kill last night. (I'm baffled)
I'm pretty content with role analysis when the odds point to it leading to scum.
You think that scarbo and the jailer both exist as town?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
@Ghosting: I'll try to look at it in more detail tonight, but I think you're tunneling on the situation to see only what you want to see. I don't think your plan is as foolproof as you sound convinced it is.
I'm v/la from now through this weekend for my civic duties.
You might be right, which is why I wanted everyone else's opinions to weigh in on my interpretation of the events as well as their likelihood. After barely sleeping last night and overloading myself with caffeine to get through the MCAT today, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some tunneling.
I do however feel that it's pretty solid, and unless there's some flawed logic or thing I'm missing, I do feel confident with the ideas put forth. But like I said, definitely open to any criticism, obviously the goal here is to pick the best plan, not necessarily my initial iteration of a plan.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
D_V reactions to the scarbo claim are horrible. He doesn't question his Jailor, he doesn't question Scarbo claim. He doesn't have that Townie confusion the rest of us has.
I just went from being pretty sure that D_V is town to being pretty sure he is scum.
Take away all the gambits and "why would claim this and that as scum", just look at the reactions.
Does anyone else see it?
????
Please Iso me and say any of that again.
Literally the moment Scarbo said he had info I started doubting my jailer. Then scrabo, then it was pointed out to me that Scum jailer in normal was vastly uncommon. So I moved on.
Try again.
It was also pointed just at much that there can't be both town RB and town Jailor. What makes you ignore this point and trust the other one (being scum!Jailor not making sense).
That's a lame response.
One person said there couldn't be a town Rb and JAiler.
I don't agree.
Why do sheep them and not think for yourself? So why can't they both be town?
Yup. Which is why I really want a jailer claim. If D_V somehow dies without being able to tell us who the jailer was (if D_V is town), then we might be losing a huge opportunity to catch scum.
I’m starting to dislike Iso. His logic on Scarbo makes no sense. And Iso logic usually does make sense.
I’ve said it before: this post is fearmongering. I would not at all be surprised if Anak is the scum jailer after this post.
Why do you react when Ghosting calls you out on this post, but not when I did?
I have a hard time believing that you panicked for this while at the same time you accuse the claimed RB for being scum:
Funny tho how in one post you call it “wine” and in this one you go for it as a reason to lynch Scarbo.
We should be lynching Anak toDay. Both for his fearmongering and the opportunistic jump on Ghosting. (And for Red's behavior D1)
However that's not the issue! You are just accepting them both as town, you are not suspicious of them like town!D_V would be. Once scarbo claimed RB you just accepted it without questioning him? WHY? AND why would you not question your Jailor as scum when you were worried they might be (when you posted that T/S list) even BEFORE scarbo claimed. It just seems to me you know exactly what's going on and why. Town D_V would think and post about scarbo and the Jailor instead of changing the subject to Ophidia and Ghosting.
Basically my point is no way you believe them both to be town so easily without knowing something.
#1127 Cantrip "If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. "
#1165 Rhand "I agree on a roleblocker claim. If we have one, then D_V should out the jailer because I'm pretty sure we won't have a RB AND Jailer in town"
#1171 Rodemy "Rb with a jailer? Yeah right."
#1184 Vaimes "shadow, I think scarbo is assuming that his own role means that there is no Jailer. Because two town Roleblockers is very unlikely. "
#1198 Cantrip "because it seems very unlikely that we have a roleblocker and a jailer that are both town"
#1199 Scarbo "A jailer claiming would a soft cc to me."
#1200 Iso: "If scarbo is truthful about being a Town Roleblocker, it's extremely unlikely that D_V's Jailer is town"
Probably missed some because phone + rushing but yeah..
@Rhand I'll read your post later, I think Anak might be mafia for the reaction to the RB claim plan but I need to re-read.
Thanks for this. Add Ophidia's VT claim to that, and we almost know who the jailer is.
It is not Cantrip, me, Rodemy, Vaimes, Scarbo, Iso, D_V, Ophidia or you.
That leaves Anak and Hunt.
Or D_V is still lying... Which I'm starting to suspect more now that I've looked into Anak and Hunt's iso's. It's a silly thing, but the way D_V formatted the T/S he provided from the jailer is the same as D_V's own T/S list: He uses a "/" without spaces for replacements. I would imagine he would just copy-paste the T/S he got from his jailer and end up with their formatting.
I really, really think D_V should out the jailer now.
Possible scenario's:
* D_V is lying, he calls someone jailer who isn't. We lynch said person, see a wrong flip, lynch D_V toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, but the jailer is town. We lynch the jailer, lynch Scarbo toMorrow: 1 vs 1. Yay.
* D_V is telling the truth, the jailer is scum. We lynch scum. Yay.
* We do have a jailer AND roleblocker in town. We lynch both. Boo. (but very unlikely)
I don't believe DV.
But wait I do Believe DV.
There is a lot of this going around. Like literally 3 players doing this. Could all 3 players be scum?
Maybe other DV maybe.
I seriously think you should claim who jailed you so we can get this behind us.
DV *did* say that the jailer had himself at highest town slot, and DV moved him to protect his anonymity, but I agree that were it me, I probably would have just copy-pasted that one person's name to a different location. But if DV really thought he was town, maybe he went the extra mile to reformat it as he would his own? Eh, not sure it's significant.
This was my initial thought process (well, similar, anyway); the only thing that makes me pause is the lack of nightkill. If Scarbo didn't use his ability, then DV was likely the NK target...which would make the jailer town. That said, I don't think lynching Scarbo first is the right play, either.
-If DV was scum and not the jailer, the jailer would be dead.
-If the jailer was scum and not DV, They would know to not shoot at DV.
-If they are scum together, why would DV have said any of this?
_______________________________________
Unless someone has good reason to believe that town has both a jailer and a RB, then scarbo is the best lynch today.
shadow, in an uncomfortable turn of events, I want to buddy you. Or more specifically your brain.
Someone could argue that DV was going to be lynched toDay because Rod CC'd him and DV needed a way to soft townfirm himself, but we can all agree that this has been the most convoluted way to go about it.
But that's about it afaics.
I seriously can't wrap my head around this situation.
@Shadow: why would Scarbo counterclaim the jailer as scum? That makes no sense.
I think we should lynch Vaimes or Anak (preferably Anak) toDay and massclaim toMorrow.
Which makes it more likely D_V is lying, which the roleblocker claim supports as well, hence me thinking D_V is a better choice today than Scarbo. He's also lied more than once in the past, has been opportunistic, etc., so it's not even just this whole mess alone that warrants it. Lynching Scarbo first is stupid when he's much more likely to be telling the truth and also actually a power role. Plus, as I've explained in greath depth, we just lynch the other one tomorrow anyway, so order of events wise, it definitely makes sense to go with D_V first.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Vote D_V.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Knowing all the roles we have will hopefully shed the necessary light on the situation.
Agreed. This seems the smartest move.