At the beginning of the day, Iso accused both Vaimes and D_V. Then, he read more and shifted his vote to Vaimes.
When he switched both players and see no NK, he must have suspected one of them, so accusing both seem to be the better option, to see if their reaction look town or not. Vaimes failed and Iso tries to lynch him.
Iso's lack of reading also confirms this, as he does not need to read to know who is the GF.
You are asking me to choose between left and right when I don't way which road is right. I can't do that.
Hopefully it will resolve soon enough and I'll get a good read from one or more of your posts (and Iso's).
It's important because having a null read on a player who's kind of likely to get lynched means you can basically change the read to suit the situation.
You're allowed to commit and change your mind, because it should be easier to see if you changed your mind as town (organically) or scum (opportunistically). Holding off on giving a read on a major-ish suspect who has tons of content is not ideal.
At the beginning of the day, Iso accused both Vaimes and D_V. Then, he read more and shifted his vote to Vaimes.
When he switched both players and see no NK, he must have suspected one of them, so accusing both seem to be the better option, to see if their reaction look town or not. Vaimes failed and Iso tries to lynch him.
Iso's lack of reading also confirms this, as he does not need to read to know who is the GF.
what
Is Iso scum in your scenario?
I legitimately can't tell. It looks like you're implying Iso is town AND scum.
At the beginning of the day, Iso accused both Vaimes and D_V. Then, he read more and shifted his vote to Vaimes.
When he switched both players and see no NK, he must have suspected one of them, so accusing both seem to be the better option, to see if their reaction look town or not. Vaimes failed and Iso tries to lynch him.
Iso's lack of reading also confirms this, as he does not need to read to know who is the GF.
If Iso switched the GF and the NK, wouldn't the GF die? I didn't think GF normally came with an anti-death clause...?
@Ghosting: Day one, I didn't really get anything from you that jumped out to me as townie, so I already had you low on my list.
Then (correct me if I'm wrong, going off of memory), but you said you were town reading iso, strongly because he had similar reads to you, right? Specifically his scum reads on Vaimes and DV? To me, the fact that Iso came into the thread without getting any of the context of day one and scum read 2 people who to me seem likely town was suspect, and then you thought this was a reasonable enough thing to do as town which felt incredibly off. And this is the first time you've even addressed my question to you, why wait until now, when you're at the bottom of my list?
I've been sporadically reading and posting, as I mentioned to Cantrip just now. I can't put full attention to the game until after the MCAT tomorrow, so now I'm just getting some questions and thoughts out there I wanted to. But I saw your most recent list and then went to look for your thought process, at which point I saw the question.
You are asking me to choose between left and right when I don't way which road is right. I can't do that.
Hopefully it will resolve soon enough and I'll get a good read from one or more of your posts (and Iso's).
It's important because having a null read on a player who's kind of likely to get lynched means you can basically change the read to suit the situation.
You're allowed to commit and change your mind, because it should be easier to see if you changed your mind as town (organically) or scum (opportunistically). Holding off on giving a read on a major-ish suspect who has tons of content is not ideal.
My wagon is very, very slowly creeping along. And I can tell from the amount of "man Vaimes sounded town earlier but now idk" reads that a bunch of votes are gonna plop down on me as deadline gets closer and there won't be time to do anything /but/ lynch me.
So if I'm going to get run up, do it already. Then I can claim, make it very clear that I am town, and we can lynch Iso. I will also settle for scarbo, Anak, or Ghosting.
But I want the votes down, committed, in the bold coloring of your choice, so that people can look back at my wagon and systematically tear the mafia a new ********.
nvm. That theory is bad. Thought the GF is NK immune.
Its ok as long as we are not discussing "ton of different possibilities for last night, all of which is as good as the other" like you were worried about.. Oh wait.
I've been sporadically reading and posting, as I mentioned to Cantrip just now. I can't put full attention to the game until after the MCAT tomorrow, so now I'm just getting some questions and thoughts out there I wanted to. But I saw your most recent list and then went to look for your thought process, at which point I saw the question.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
Meteor, what are your actual thoughts on those Vaimes posts?
I'm just trying to understand where Vaimes head is at.
He seems worried about getting lynched and then not worried at the same post.
Then he is worried again, while he doesn't seem to be in any big danger of getting lynched and we are still far from the deadline anyway.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
Well there goes the plan. Why do you think its horrible for the town?
Take out all the Doctor stuff away. The only discussion here is whether revealing who the RB and who he RB at Night 1 helps town or not. So why not?
@Meteor It's really bad for the town because it outs one of our PRs. We saw, potentially, how powerful they could be in stopping a kill, and you want to out themselves today to be killed tonight?
Sure, maybe there is someone who could protect them, but there is no need to risk that today. It's not like the problem of what happened to DV has to be answered right now, and that's the only reason you want them to claim. At the cost of very likely losing that role
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
You can check this post out for more information, and I welcome an alternative, as well as criticism of the plan.
Additionally,
"“From there, we can decide if we want to do the same for the doctor (again, if there is one).”
“This is why I think we should start with the roleblocker”
Also Anak, are you able to post a t/s list? I went to see how many people you had as town were now scum in your eyes, but I realized you never answered my request for T/S lists.
My wagon is very fun right now though, the timing and speed are all making me glad it's happening lol.
@Meteor It's really bad for the town because it outs one of our PRs. We saw, potentially, how powerful they could be in stopping a kill, and you want to out themselves today to be killed tonight?
Sure, maybe there is someone who could protect them, but there is no need to risk that today. It's not like the problem of what happened to DV has to be answered right now, and that's the only reason you want them to claim. At the cost of very likely losing that role
You understand that if we do have a roleblocker, and we do out them, that it ends up being good for town, right?
"If there is a roleblocker and they claim who they blocked, we discover that either the player they blocked is scum, or scum targeted D_V. If scum targeted D_V, we confirm D_V as town, right? So worst case: roleblocker is outed and D_V is confirmed town. Best case: scum is outed. Is this thinking correct?"
This is also not factoring in that we may very well have no roleblocker, especially since we "have" a jailer.
I must have overlooked your request, my apologies. Will assemble that as soon as I can.
I see your details above, it doesn't change anything. Claiming anything right now is so not in towns favors. My alterative is to let DV alone for now, let our PRs stay hidden, and do some behavioral analysis.
Also, realllly sorry for quadruple posting, but if we do end up having a roleblocker, and we also have a jailer, jailer simply doesn't claim, jailer protects the RB, everyone wins? Unless you don't believe we have both, in which case that would warrant some answers from you.
I must have overlooked your request, my apologies. Will assemble that as soon as I can.
I see your details above, it doesn't change anything. Claiming anything right now is so not in towns favors. My alterative is to let DV alone for now, let our PRs stay hidden, and do some behavioral analysis.
How is possibly outing scum and confirming players' alignments not good for town? This is something we should leave unaddressed when it could literally be catching scum easily. Like if we don't have a roleblocker even, we gain so much knowledge. We could find out if D_V is lying, and that makes today such a profitable day.
How far do you think behavioral analysis has gotten us today, and where do you think it'll get us in the next week before the deadline? Can you respond specifically to your issues with the plan, and weigh the pros and cons? What if we don't even have a roleblocker? What if that roleblocker exists, but can be protected? We're talking about the possibility of 100% catching scum, vs. behavioural analysis that might get us a decent lynch choice.
If we all vote for the roleblocker to claim, and they don't claim, we learn that there is no roleblocker and gain a bunch of information about the game and are happy.
@Ghosting: If we have a roleblocker, and they do claim, how do we determine if the person they blocked is scum, or if DV was the NK target?
Also, is behavioral analysis a different thing to you than votal and read analysis? I know they are different facets, but they seem connected to me.
If we have a roleblocker, and they targeted someone last night, we know that either the person they blocked is scum, or or scum tried killing D_V. If we assume scum tried killing D_V, we have to assume that there is a jailer, and also that both the jailer and scum targeted D_V, and that the roleblocker targeted the player attempting to kill D_V. As you can see, assuming the scum tried to kill D_V becomes far less realistic in this world.
Additionally, if nobody claims roleblocker, we learn a great deal about the game and don't out any PRs, which is the path I'm hoping for and why I think scum team is getting antsy right now. If there is no roleblocker, then the only way the kill could be prevented is if D_V made the kill, or if there was a role like doctor who decided to protect D_V -- which again causes a crazy amount of assumptions just to make it feasible, so it isn't really realistic.
I feel that this is the best step moving forward for us to figure out the game, rather than just to continue guessing while having a huge chunk of information for us to make these reads. If we find out if there is or isn't a roleblocker, and there is what that roleblocker did, we could 100% hit scum, or worst case, confirm people and get a better guess at who scum is.
They're definitely all related in a sense, it just depends on the specifics of what you're looking for and what you value as most important, and of course that is never a constant in mafia.
If we all vote for the roleblocker to claim, and they don't claim, we learn that there is no roleblocker and gain a bunch of information about the game and are happy.
Sorry that I didn't express myself correctly.
If there is a roleblocker and he did not want to claim because he is skeptic of your idea, the entire town would be misguided by this vote and go on the wrong way.
Moreover, ghostling, who would you vote if there is a roleblocker, and who would you vote if there is not one?
I tore the pages out of my work notebook so I can post that tonight when I get home. Since I have Friday off, I can read the rest of the game sometime in the afternoon and I'll post the rest of my thoughts.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Meteor It's really bad for the town because it outs one of our PRs. We saw, potentially, how powerful they could be in stopping a kill, and you want to out themselves today to be killed tonight?
Sure, maybe there is someone who could protect them, but there is no need to risk that today. It's not like the problem of what happened to DV has to be answered right now, and that's the only reason you want them to claim. At the cost of very likely losing that role
I am saying the risk is worth the reward because:
1. There might not be a role blocker at all - Good to know
2. If there is we get to know who got blocked N1 and together with analysis we can figure out if they mafia - Good to know
So no, the D_V "thing" is just an added bonus and reason number 3 but not the main issue at all.
So now when I explained the benefits, do you still don't think that's worth the risk?
In addition, the whole "behavioral analysis " argument thats been talked about is pretty dumb to be honest. Did you see me stop doing behavioral analysis because I support the plan? A town player can do both.
@Rhand - did your opinion on Vaimes changed at all after Cantrip #1117?
@Cantrip - I don't see scum!DV mentioning he got jailed if it was by scum!Jailor, I think he waits more with that info. Its a possibility to consider but I feel like mafia wont do it out of fear town will eventually find out its a lie. I've seen worse gambits though.
Scum points to everyone voting for the RB to claim, and special scum points to Ghosting for saying if that fails to get the Doc to claim
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
@D_V: if Anak was the jailer, then you should tell us now lol. This is fearmongering.
I must have overlooked your request, my apologies. Will assemble that as soon as I can.
I see your details above, it doesn't change anything. Claiming anything right now is so not in towns favors. My alterative is to let DV alone for now, let our PRs stay hidden, and do some behavioral analysis.
@Rhand - did your opinion on Vaimes changed at all after Cantrip #1117?
@Cantrip - I don't see scum!DV mentioning he got jailed if it was by scum!Jailor, I think he waits more with that info. Its a possibility to consider but I feel like mafia wont do it out of fear town will eventually find out its a lie. I've seen worse gambits though.
No, I still think Vaimes is probably scum.
I do think D_V would out the jail if he was jailed by scum. It would make him almost confirmed town if a town PR gets jailed later or if the jailer ever flips.
I'm the roleblocker, which I think should be clear from my posts earlier toDay. HOWEVER, I did not block anyone last night, so I can't take credit for no kill.
I'm the roleblocker, which I think should be clear from my posts earlier toDay. HOWEVER, I did not block anyone last night, so I can't take credit for no kill.
Then why on earth would you claim? You don't clear anyone, and you out yourself to be killed tonight.
When he switched both players and see no NK, he must have suspected one of them, so accusing both seem to be the better option, to see if their reaction look town or not. Vaimes failed and Iso tries to lynch him.
Iso's lack of reading also confirms this, as he does not need to read to know who is the GF.
He didn't seem surprised.
I'm going to assume that he did. If he was bus driven to me he didn't let me know or seem surprised.
You're allowed to commit and change your mind, because it should be easier to see if you changed your mind as town (organically) or scum (opportunistically). Holding off on giving a read on a major-ish suspect who has tons of content is not ideal.
Is Iso scum in your scenario?
I legitimately can't tell. It looks like you're implying Iso is town AND scum.
That has literally nothing to do with a Bus Driver or a Jailer.
I've been sporadically reading and posting, as I mentioned to Cantrip just now. I can't put full attention to the game until after the MCAT tomorrow, so now I'm just getting some questions and thoughts out there I wanted to. But I saw your most recent list and then went to look for your thought process, at which point I saw the question.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Hmm..
Okay then.
I would like to see that claim.
The plan only works if everyone agrees. So far so good.
Its ok as long as we are not discussing "ton of different possibilities for last night, all of which is as good as the other" like you were worried about.. Oh wait.
R
B
RB
Vote Ghosting
We absolutely do not need to have any town power to out themselves right now to confirm DV. Yes one of those roles claiming would clear that picture up, but trying to fish out those claims is horrible for the town. To go so far as to say the Doc should if no RB exists is lunacy.
Whoever you are, stay hidden. If you don't exist, we will figure that out eventually.
Iso(1): Vaimes
Vaimes(1): Rodemy
Ghosting(3): Huntzilla, shadowlancerx, Anaklusmos
Huntzilla(1): Mete0rShower
D_V(2): Cantripmancer, scarbo
scarbo(2): Ophidia, D_V
Edit: Nath'd
I'm just trying to understand where Vaimes head is at.
He seems worried about getting lynched and then not worried at the same post.
Then he is worried again, while he doesn't seem to be in any big danger of getting lynched and we are still far from the deadline anyway.
Well there goes the plan. Why do you think its horrible for the town?
Take out all the Doctor stuff away. The only discussion here is whether revealing who the RB and who he RB at Night 1 helps town or not. So why not?
Sure, maybe there is someone who could protect them, but there is no need to risk that today. It's not like the problem of what happened to DV has to be answered right now, and that's the only reason you want them to claim. At the cost of very likely losing that role
You can check this post out for more information, and I welcome an alternative, as well as criticism of the plan.
Additionally,
"“From there, we can decide if we want to do the same for the doctor (again, if there is one).”
“This is why I think we should start with the roleblocker”
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
My wagon is very fun right now though, the timing and speed are all making me glad it's happening lol.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
You understand that if we do have a roleblocker, and we do out them, that it ends up being good for town, right?
"If there is a roleblocker and they claim who they blocked, we discover that either the player they blocked is scum, or scum targeted D_V. If scum targeted D_V, we confirm D_V as town, right? So worst case: roleblocker is outed and D_V is confirmed town. Best case: scum is outed. Is this thinking correct?"
This is also not factoring in that we may very well have no roleblocker, especially since we "have" a jailer.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I see your details above, it doesn't change anything. Claiming anything right now is so not in towns favors. My alterative is to let DV alone for now, let our PRs stay hidden, and do some behavioral analysis.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
How is possibly outing scum and confirming players' alignments not good for town? This is something we should leave unaddressed when it could literally be catching scum easily. Like if we don't have a roleblocker even, we gain so much knowledge. We could find out if D_V is lying, and that makes today such a profitable day.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
This.
How far do you think behavioral analysis has gotten us today, and where do you think it'll get us in the next week before the deadline? Can you respond specifically to your issues with the plan, and weigh the pros and cons? What if we don't even have a roleblocker? What if that roleblocker exists, but can be protected? We're talking about the possibility of 100% catching scum, vs. behavioural analysis that might get us a decent lynch choice.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
If we all vote for the roleblocker to claim, and they don't claim, we learn that there is no roleblocker and gain a bunch of information about the game and are happy.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Also, is behavioral analysis a different thing to you than votal and read analysis? I know they are different facets, but they seem connected to me.
If we have a roleblocker, and they targeted someone last night, we know that either the person they blocked is scum, or or scum tried killing D_V. If we assume scum tried killing D_V, we have to assume that there is a jailer, and also that both the jailer and scum targeted D_V, and that the roleblocker targeted the player attempting to kill D_V. As you can see, assuming the scum tried to kill D_V becomes far less realistic in this world.
Additionally, if nobody claims roleblocker, we learn a great deal about the game and don't out any PRs, which is the path I'm hoping for and why I think scum team is getting antsy right now. If there is no roleblocker, then the only way the kill could be prevented is if D_V made the kill, or if there was a role like doctor who decided to protect D_V -- which again causes a crazy amount of assumptions just to make it feasible, so it isn't really realistic.
I feel that this is the best step moving forward for us to figure out the game, rather than just to continue guessing while having a huge chunk of information for us to make these reads. If we find out if there is or isn't a roleblocker, and there is what that roleblocker did, we could 100% hit scum, or worst case, confirm people and get a better guess at who scum is.
They're definitely all related in a sense, it just depends on the specifics of what you're looking for and what you value as most important, and of course that is never a constant in mafia.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Sorry that I didn't express myself correctly.
If there is a roleblocker and he did not want to claim because he is skeptic of your idea, the entire town would be misguided by this vote and go on the wrong way.
Moreover, ghostling, who would you vote if there is a roleblocker, and who would you vote if there is not one?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I am saying the risk is worth the reward because:
1. There might not be a role blocker at all - Good to know
2. If there is we get to know who got blocked N1 and together with analysis we can figure out if they mafia - Good to know
So no, the D_V "thing" is just an added bonus and reason number 3 but not the main issue at all.
So now when I explained the benefits, do you still don't think that's worth the risk?
In addition, the whole "behavioral analysis " argument thats been talked about is pretty dumb to be honest. Did you see me stop doing behavioral analysis because I support the plan? A town player can do both.
@Cantrip - I don't see scum!DV mentioning he got jailed if it was by scum!Jailor, I think he waits more with that info. Its a possibility to consider but I feel like mafia wont do it out of fear town will eventually find out its a lie. I've seen worse gambits though.
I agree on a roleblocker claim. If we have one, then D_V should out the jailer because I'm pretty sure we won't have a RB AND Jailer in town.
@D_V: if Anak was the jailer, then you should tell us now lol. This is fearmongering.
vote Anak
Why?
You’re not doing any
Same for you
No, I still think Vaimes is probably scum.
I do think D_V would out the jail if he was jailed by scum. It would make him almost confirmed town if a town PR gets jailed later or if the jailer ever flips.
I'm the roleblocker, which I think should be clear from my posts earlier toDay. HOWEVER, I did not block anyone last night, so I can't take credit for no kill.
Vote: Vaimes
I forgot to
Also, no multiball
Zomg was confused as to why d_v counter claimed his name only to conclude that thee were 2 scum teams.
Whether or not it was a genuine reaction, idk. But this can't be multiball
Then why on earth would you claim? You don't clear anyone, and you out yourself to be killed tonight.
Welp. Scarbo is scum. Vaimes is scum. D_v is scum.
Woo scumteam confirmed.
Rb with a jailer? Yeah right.
Where did we land on DV's neutral claim? Did he rescind it?
D_V claimed Town PR long time ago. Why are you asking?