I essentially feel like people are making all of these scenarios to try to justify D_V not being scum, but none of them seem likely.
If there's a doctor, the chance of them protecting D_V is incredibly low, and the chance of scum killing D_V are also highly unlikely.
Scum chose not to make the kill? Highly unlikely.
We have a roleblocker? That'd be great, but means they hit scum and aren't claiming it, when we've already hit one scum and the chances of doing that are super slim.
@Cantrip Why the lean town on Scarbo? Not a whole lot to judge him by, but nothing I have seen have made me feel town on him.
Pretty much a gut read. If I have time (haha) I'll dig into meta, but I think I remember scum!Scarbo being nearly hyper. That may not be alignment indicative given the time that has passed since we last played together, but...eh, ask me again later?
What I'd really like is for Scarbo to post more. And by more I mean MOAR!!
But if this is true, the kill was either not done for whatever reason, or it was stopped, right? And if a town player stopped it, wouldn't they claim because they would for sure know another scum member then? Why else would the kill fail?
How, exactly, would they know another scum member? Sure, roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be DV), but Doc would only have a guess as to who else was likely!Town because that's who they protected, right?
IDK maybe we have a bus driver too. No that wouldn't work.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe scum did want me dead. I just like set myself up as WIFOM for mafia.
Maybe the mafia were both replacements and didn't get a kill out.
This kind of pondering is the strongest argument for town!DV so far. Sounds like he's seriously thinking out the possibilities and is honestly confused.
Only roles I can think of that would stop a kill other than jailer are doc and roleblocker. Unless...the jailer got redirected? But you said the jailer indicated that he meant to jail you, correct?
Eh, not sure there's any point to this speculation until we know for sure that there's a jailer. I still think that if DV was jailed and is town, it was likely that he was the NK target, despite his efforts D1.
And I love the idea that the mafia didn't kill because they were replacements and missed the deadline. That would be hilarious.
How, exactly, would they know another scum member? Sure, roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be DV), but Doc would only have a guess as to who else was likely!Town because that's who they protected, right?
How could it also be D_V?
If roleblocker is player Y and roleblocks player X, and player X makes the kill, but there's no kill, player Y now knows that whoever they roleblocked is scum. If that player isn't scum, D_V 100% is scum, right? So as town, with the position of already having killed one scum, and currently being in the dark with where to go and having people suggest D_V might be town, I definitely think that player either needs to claim, or we need to lynch D_V. Also, the players who think D_V is town need to address that they must think whoever was roleblocked was scum, right? Otherwise they need to have some sort of explanation for the kill.
So since you think D_V is town, do you think the kill was roleblocked? Or how do you think it didn't go through?
This kind of pondering is the strongest argument for town!DV so far. Sounds like he's seriously thinking out the possibilities and is honestly confused.
I can't help but disagree, it came off as incredibly lazy and fluff to me. None of the reasons are legitimate, and D_V even addresses their illegitimacy. He went from "I'm 90% certain I wasn't the kill", to "Maybe I am the kill" just after I started pressing the issue. "Maybe the mafia were both replacements" is far from serious thinking, and I'm surprised you consider it to be so.
Hi Ghosting, why do you think there isn't a town Roleblocker?
If there is, and they roleblocked scum, would it not be in their and our best interest for them to claim who they blocked? They would 100% know we have scum, so that's why I'm assuming here. Not even factoring in the likelihood of that RB to hit the player making the kill.
Not if we also have a Doc, which they couldn't possibly know!
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
How, exactly, would they know another scum member? Sure, roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be DV), but Doc would only have a guess as to who else was likely!Town because that's who they protected, right?
How could it also be D_V?
If roleblocker is player Y and roleblocks player X, and player X makes the kill, but there's no kill, player Y now knows that whoever they roleblocked is scum. If that player isn't scum, D_V 100% is scum, right? So as town, with the position of already having killed one scum, and currently being in the dark with where to go and having people suggest D_V might be town, I definitely think that player either needs to claim, or we need to lynch D_V. Also, the players who think D_V is town need to address that they must think whoever was roleblocked was scum, right? Otherwise they need to have some sort of explanation for the kill.
So since you think D_V is town, do you think the kill was roleblocked? Or how do you think it didn't go through?
This kind of pondering is the strongest argument for town!DV so far. Sounds like he's seriously thinking out the possibilities and is honestly confused.
I can't help but disagree, it came off as incredibly lazy and fluff to me. None of the reasons are legitimate, and D_V even addresses their illegitimacy. He went from "I'm 90% certain I wasn't the kill", to "Maybe I am the kill" just after I started pressing the issue. "Maybe the mafia were both replacements" is far from serious thinking, and I'm surprised you consider it to be so.
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
It's that I feel we are creating these alternate situations when they aren't nearly as likely as what seems obvious. We can try to justify him being town by saying we might have a doctor who might have protected the kill, and all while we also have a jailer who jailed a player on a night we had no kill, but that's relying on a lot of hypotheticals whose likeliehoods aren't really reassuring.
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
It's that I feel we are creating these alternate situations when they aren't nearly as likely as what seems obvious. We can try to justify him being town by saying we might have a doctor who might have protected the kill, and all while we also have a jailer who jailed a player on a night we had no kill, but that's relying on a lot of hypotheticals whose likeliehoods aren't really reassuring.
Bro
I'm just going to tell my scum mate to do the kill.
Scum Jailer makes so little sense to exist as a role anyway, so lending any credence to that theory feels like we are leveling ourselves. This is a normal, so no weird bull*****, and really what does a scum Jailer do for the scumteam? Not a whole lot.
@DV do you really think Vaimes and ISO could be scum? I guess Iso is capable of the turbobus, but seems a bit of a stretch this point
Ehm a scum jailer can roleblock someone and chat him up for the towncred. Seems useful to me lol.
I finished my Day 1 read. Without notes this time or it would’ve taken me another 5 hours.
Town:
Rhand
Rodemy
Ophidia
Cantripmancer
Probably town:
D_V (for how Zomg deflected to him after a few votes but before he was clearly going down. Also Zomg said he didn’t believe his claim “at this time”, which probably means he does believe it (#421). Also, Zomg did flip Angela, making the counterclaim from the same team senseless.)
Scarbo (he’s been playing like a strong town PR, which is what I cleared him for earlier, and now he claimed it)
Shadow (sure town if Anak is scum. #563 would be extremely smart scum play. I think that comes from town)
Null:
Ghosting (cannot read him. Probably not scum with Anak)
Iso (nothing on Day1)
Meteor (nothing on Day1)
Lean scum:
Anak (because of his predecessor mainly)
Hunt (for coasting)
Scum:
Vaimes (for Zomg’s T/S and for how he was trying to get attention away from Zomg. Also he kept waffling on me but puts me in blue in his votal analysis)
How, exactly, would they know another scum member? Sure, roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be DV), but Doc would only have a guess as to who else was likely!Town because that's who they protected, right?
How could it also be D_V?
If roleblocker is player Y and roleblocks player X, and player X makes the kill, but there's no kill, player Y now knows that whoever they roleblocked is scum. If that player isn't scum, D_V 100% is scum, right?
But in that same situation, if DV was also jailed, then the roleblocker can't know if the nightkill didn't succeed because of the roleblocker's action or if it was because DV got jailed (and DV was the NK target). Oh, sorry, I see what your question is. That was an error on my part. I should have said "...roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be whomever targeted DV)..."
Quote from Ghosting »
So since you think D_V is town, do you think the kill was roleblocked? Or how do you think it didn't go through?
Are you not reading the thread? I just had a pretty big run of posts where I thought I caught DV making up game history to fit his own false narrative. I'm still reviewing to see where that ends up, but I'm nowhere near convinced that DV is town. As per my T/S list...which you didn't read either?
Quote from Ghosting »
This kind of pondering is the strongest argument for town!DV so far. Sounds like he's seriously thinking out the possibilities and is honestly confused.
I can't help but disagree, it came off as incredibly lazy and fluff to me. None of the reasons are legitimate, and D_V even addresses their illegitimacy. He went from "I'm 90% certain I wasn't the kill", to "Maybe I am the kill" just after I started pressing the issue. "Maybe the mafia were both replacements" is far from serious thinking, and I'm surprised you consider it to be so.
I didn't think that part was serious; I thought the idea was hilarious. But the rest...yeah, sounded genuine. *shrug*
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
It's that I feel we are creating these alternate situations when they aren't nearly as likely as what seems obvious. We can try to justify him being town by saying we might have a doctor who might have protected the kill, and all while we also have a jailer who jailed a player on a night we had no kill, but that's relying on a lot of hypotheticals whose likeliehoods aren't really reassuring.
Bro
I'm just going to tell my scum mate to do the kill.
This. This is the part that I keep coming back to. Unless the jailer shuts down mafia chat, scum!DV being jailed does NOT make sense to be the reason that there was no kill. Like, even when I try to think it out to the end, I see his scummates waiting in chat for him to post...nothing. So they make their plans without him. "And hey, since DV isn't going to do anything else, Mod, we'll have him make the NK." At that point, either Brin has to say "no can do; choose someone else" (which gives the scumteam information that they probably shouldn't have before DV can report back the following Night), or Brin keeps silent, lets them think that DV will perform the kill, and then gets the Bastard Mod of the Year award. Or they DON'T assign missing!DV to make the kill...and then we're at the same place again, with another scum performing the kill and getting stopped somehow.
So, IF DV got jailed (likely, unless ANOTHER town!gambit), he was either the NK target, or something else stopped the kill. Not sure that I ever use Occam's Razor correctly, but I think it points to DV being town and being the NK target. Hmm.
I straight up don't see though why the scum tried to kill me. Yes I got one of their members lynched.
But I also set myself up at the end of the day with a massive WIFOM mess with the most town read player in the game.
If I was scum I would leave me alive simply because of the havoc it would cause on day 2. And look at how much it has. Maybe they can get a free lynch out of the day.
So, IF DV got jailed (likely, unless ANOTHER town!gambit), he was either the NK target, or something else stopped the kill. Not sure that I ever use Occam's Razor correctly, but I think it points to DV being town and being the NK target. Hmm.
That actually makes a lot of sense if Vaimes is scum. He put a lot of effort in townclearing DV before the zomg flip. And DV did claim power.
I think Scarbo should come forward with his information now. The cat is half out of the bag anyways.
>Vaimes fought with the ENTIRE thread with his town!DV read instead of letting a town PR get run up
>lynch very likely would have succeeded because everyone and their mother believes in Lynch All Liars
Really?
Forming a read around a conclusion, Rhand. Bad.
And gun to head, I don't think you're scum. Indecisiveness has never been a scumtell for me.
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I'm very skeptical of ISO's sudden change of heart. I stopped rewarding people for reading me correctly after getting burned so many times because of it.
@Ghosting why isn't it possible we had a Jailor who targeted D_V and mafia kill + doctor that targeted whoever? Also, if that was the case why would the doctor claim now considering they have no idea who the killer was? Am I missing something? Also, I'll post the T/S later.
It's that I feel we are creating these alternate situations when they aren't nearly as likely as what seems obvious. We can try to justify him being town by saying we might have a doctor who might have protected the kill, and all while we also have a jailer who jailed a player on a night we had no kill, but that's relying on a lot of hypotheticals whose likeliehoods aren't really reassuring.
Can I get an explanation for dummies what is the likely scenario in your opinion? Because D_V as mafia doesn't make sense either, as pointed out by others many times before.
So, IF DV got jailed (likely, unless ANOTHER town!gambit), he was either the NK target, or something else stopped the kill. Not sure that I ever use Occam's Razor correctly, but I think it points to DV being town and being the NK target. Hmm.
That actually makes a lot of sense if Vaimes is scum. He put a lot of effort in townclearing DV before the zomg flip. And DV did claim power.
I think Scarbo should come forward with his information now. The cat is half out of the bag anyways.
I agree. I think the right play as town would have been to wait, and I do believe him that he was going to and just got drunk. But now that its been revealed, the best town play is just share the info.
@Cantrip: Thanks for your response, there is indeed a lot I haven't read yet as I haven't really had the time and am just trying to get some questions answered and things sorted in the little time I do have during my v/la. Sorry for any redundant questions I asked, I'll read over that post more in detail later and respond with more depth soon.
@Meteor: I think what I forgot is that if the kill didn't go through because D_V made the kill, that would mean jailer stopped scum chat. So it's normal that a jailed scum could just let their team know, and the team then could pick someone else to make the kill?
The reason I found the other situations less likely as I explained is that they require all these outside hypotheticals that we're totally just guessing on and seem pretty unlikely. So I guess it boils down to whether or not D_V really was jailed? Could he not be scum and be lying about it? If he's lying, everything else is explained, right? We would know he's scum, the kill would be explained, etc. Is the only thing making him potentially town that we aren't sure how the jailer works (if we do have one)?
Again, apologies if these are obvious questions, I'm trying to maintain my knowledge of the game so I'm not totally useless here.
I straight up don't see though why the scum tried to kill me. Yes I got one of their members lynched.
But I also set myself up at the end of the day with a massive WIFOM mess with the most town read player in the game.
If I was scum I would leave me alive simply because of the havoc it would cause on day 2. And look at how much it has. Maybe they can get a free lynch out of the day.
I just don't see it being a good kill.
Maybe you're right that you out-wifomed yourself. I mean, if the jailer really approached your conversation with the "I'm saving DV" mentality, then there was at least one person who thought it likely that you would be NK'd. Have you done this (gone crazy at eod in an attempt to avoid the NK) before?
So, IF DV got jailed (likely, unless ANOTHER town!gambit), he was either the NK target, or something else stopped the kill. Not sure that I ever use Occam's Razor correctly, but I think it points to DV being town and being the NK target. Hmm.
That actually makes a lot of sense if Vaimes is scum. He put a lot of effort in townclearing DV before the zomg flip. And DV did claim power.
Where do you see this (Vaimes putting a lot of effort into townclearing DV)?
Quote from Rhand »
I think Scarbo should come forward with his information now. The cat is half out of the bag anyways.
Yeah, this is probably appropriate, especially with his assertion that it makes DV's jailed claim questionable.
@Cantrip: Thanks for your response, there is indeed a lot I haven't read yet as I haven't really had the time and am just trying to get some questions answered and things sorted in the little time I do have during my v/la. Sorry for any redundant questions I asked, I'll read over that post more in detail later and respond with more depth soon.
Er, sorry. I forgot you were MCAT-ing. Don't mind me; I'll wait until you can actively participate again.
@Meteor: I think what I forgot is that if the kill didn't go through because D_V made the kill, that would mean jailer stopped scum chat. So it's normal that a jailed scum could just let their team know, and the team then could pick someone else to make the kill?
The reason I found the other situations less likely as I explained is that they require all these outside hypotheticals that we're totally just guessing on and seem pretty unlikely. So I guess it boils down to whether or not D_V really was jailed? Could he not be scum and be lying about it? If he's lying, everything else is explained, right? We would know he's scum, the kill would be explained, etc. Is the only thing making him potentially town that we aren't sure how the jailer works (if we do have one)?
Check out the end of my #1099 for my speculation about whether or not it's logical to think that jailed scum (with a nightchat with his jailer) would be blocked from chatting with his scummates. (Spoiler: It feels to me, if nothing else, like a poorly designed ability, so I don't think it's likely.)
@Meteor: I think what I forgot is that if the kill didn't go through because D_V made the kill, that would mean jailer stopped scum chat. So it's normal that a jailed scum could just let their team know, and the team then could pick someone else to make the kill?
The reason I found the other situations less likely as I explained is that they require all these outside hypotheticals that we're totally just guessing on and seem pretty unlikely. So I guess it boils down to whether or not D_V really was jailed? Could he not be scum and be lying about it? If he's lying, everything else is explained, right? We would know he's scum, the kill would be explained, etc. Is the only thing making him potentially town that we aren't sure how the jailer works (if we do have one)?
If he is scum the kill still wouldn't be explained, because we have no idea if town has a roleblocker (let alone one who blocked D_V) or a doctor (let alone one who protected who D_V shot if he was mafia). From where I'm sitting, we don't have any information and both cases (town!D_V and scum!D_V) are possible. IMO based on tone and reactions especially town!D_V is more likely.
Vaimes is the second to highest poster in the thread; why do you not have a stronger opinion on him?
I know.. Reading the Vaimes ISO was like riding a rollercoaster for me. Both of which I don't like btw.
Like I said it was much easier to townread him at Bare Bones. However, he claims he would never play like that again. He doesn't feel like mafia either. I can see cases for both town!Vaimes and scum!Vaimes.
In what universe does a roleblock/protective role prevent mafia from using scumchat.
Never. Literally never. Moreover, I find that mechanic to be pretty bastard. Mafia chat is inherent, passive, and fundamental to the scumteam.
Again, it's the same as saying a Jailer could yank a Mason out of Masonchat.
---
Mete0r, does the fact that our scumreads are more or less the same not make you worry if I'm scum or feel better if I'm town? 'Cause like. Four of my bottom five are and have been, Iso/Anak/Hunt/scarbo.
Not really. It can make me feel better or worse from town!Vaimes or scum!Vaimes.
You can be town who has the same reads as I do based on analyzing, or you can be mafia that fake reads for whatever reason and agenda that fits mafia.
At this point in the game it's kind of important. I think it's better to commit and be wrong than waffle and (potentially) change your read as it suits you.
You are asking me to choose between left and right when I don't way which road is right. I can't do that.
Hopefully it will resolve soon enough and I'll get a good read from one or more of your posts (and Iso's).
Okay, so it does seem to be the general consensus that even if D_V was scum, the kill would still go through just fine. Assuming this is true,
1) Is jailer chat normal?
2) I read on mafiascum’s wiki that “Because it is a combination Doctor and Roleblocker, Jailkeeper has a myriad of uses while not allowing broken combinations or exactly confirming anyone as Town or scum. Thus, it has risen to prominence as a very popular power role.” Does this mean that creating hypotheticals based on having a doctor and roleblocker is something we shouldn’t be wasting time with?
3) If D_V is town, then the kill was blocked somehow, by either a roleblocker or doctor. So if I’m understanding correctly, in order for us to assume D_V is town, he either had to be the kill, or we have to have a roleblocker/doctor as well as a role that acts as a roleblocker/doctor. If we have a roleblocker, that means they either blocked scum, or scum chose to kill D_V (in order for D_V to be town). If we have a doctor, they had to have correctly chosen the kill, which is both great and interesting odds.
If there is a roleblocker and they claim who they blocked, we discover that either the player they blocked is scum, or scum targeted D_V. If scum targeted D_V, we confirm D_V as town, right? So worst case: roleblocker is outed and D_V is confirmed town. Best case: scum is outed. Is this thinking correct?
If there is a doctor and they claim who they protected, we know that D_V wasn’t the kill, then we know D_V is scum? Because otherwise we have to add in a roleblocker and all kinds of odds and none of that would make sense. But if the doctor protected someone that wasn’t D_V, then that person had to have been the kill, so we confirm that player as town too, correct?
oh you're backing up Vaimes? not gonna try to be a little less transparent?
Do you think that scum!DV and scum!Vaimes would act this defensively regarding each other?
I really don't like the phrasing of this post.
_________________________________
Still have some other questions out to people, if they've been answered and I missed it I'm sorry, I'll be reading the last couple pages again without being overly distracted fairly soon.
Shadow, what even are you scumreading me for? Just curious because the only indication you've given is this post:
@Ghosting: It is severely concerning to me that you're town reading Iso for his reads being similar to yours, despite the fact that HE HASN'T EVEN READ THE GAME! Talk to me about how that comes from a town perspective.
When you should be pretty aware that the reads I'm referring to are the ones he opened the game with, and those are the reads that are based on things he did read. You must've just missed that though, right? It wouldn't make sense for town to misconstrue the truth like that.
I know.. Reading the Vaimes ISO was like riding a rollercoaster for me. Both of which I don't like btw.
Like I said it was much easier to townread him at Bare Bones. However, he claims he would never play like that again. He doesn't feel like mafia either. I can see cases for both town!Vaimes and scum!Vaimes.
@Cantrip: Vaimes made a big wagon analysis post where he cleared DV if we had 1 scumteam and wanted to lynch him if we have multiball.
Well...yes, but he didn't really clear DV there. In fact, all he said in that post (if I'm thinking of the same one: 651) was "I already went over my thoughts on DV" and then didn't include him in his "top 5 scum".
Ok, I know I promised to reread DV, but Rhand's assertion doesn't sound right, so I got sidetracked. Here are Vaimes' thoughts on DV Day 1:
125: First mention was in his big T/S process list. This post struck me as odd, but I didn't really think to comment on it at the time because "different strokes", but the way Vaimes goes about building his list is foreign to me. He eliminates the players he thinks are town (including his odd Zomg-clear), eliminates the lurkers, then finds a group to "poke". No comment on what they've done that hasn't been townie (other than the player he pokes, Omega), and they obviously haven't "done nothing" or they'd be in with the lurkers. That list is: D_V, Kitty/Iso, Atogoholic/Meteor, Omega/Anak.
@Vaimes: Do your early T/S lists often work like this? (Did I ask this already? I have a vague recollection of meaning to ask, but I can't find it...)
271, 276: Asks DV for reasons why Ghosting is scum. Never really follows up on it.
361: Asks DV to justify DV's naked vote on Zomg and asks if neutral claim was legit.
367, 376: Slams DV for claiming to have "given" us Zomg.
423: Votes Zomg. "I guess if zomg flips scum, we can leave DV alone unless it looks like he's a Serial Killer or something. Worth pointing out that he claimed Neutral, but not what kind."
591: Responds to DV's assertion that Vaimes is scum with Zomg. Gives DV 1/10 for getting Vaimes to respond to him.
592: Sounds incredulous that DV believes DV has been providing content.
595: Lists what DV has done (very little), says that the cc outweighs everything if Zomg flips scum, indicates that he was trying to get DV to Do Things.
613: Indicates that DV will be the lynch for tomorrow unless he gets vigged.
@All: I think this has been discussed, at least lightly, but is it possible that a scum!Jailer jailed scum!DV to protect him from a feared vig, and scum!DV decided to run with it and make it public when their NK (performed by a third member) failed? Feel free to poke holes in this; I'm not married to it.
632: Says DV is "cute". 648: This is the only post, I think, where Vaimes really pushes for town!DV (if non-multiball) during D1. It *is* a bit of a turnaround from his previous interactions, but a lot had happened since he had been attacking DV.
651: Big Red Disclaimer Post. One line "you know my thoughts on DV".
658: Indicates that no one's going to lynch Rod over DV.
661: Attacks DV's logic that Rod is scum.
680: Calls DV "cute" again.
681: Says DV's "easy win" comment sounds fake. Questions DV's reasoning on why Vaimes is scum.
So...
@Rhand: I really disagree that Vaimes worked hard to townclear DV at end of D1. Are you seeing posts that I'm not seeing (or that you interpret differently)?
In what universe does a roleblock/protective role prevent mafia from using scumchat.
Never. Literally never. Moreover, I find that mechanic to be pretty bastard. Mafia chat is inherent, passive, and fundamental to the scumteam.
Again, it's the same as saying a Jailer could yank a Mason out of Masonchat.
Eh, I could see a mod experimenting in that direction, but this is a normal, and it passed review, so I agree.
EWP: @Ghosting: I feel like your logic may be correct if we have a roleblocker. Yeah, if the roleblocker blocked player A and DV was jailed, then player A likely performed the kill. We still don't know for sure whether DV is town or scum in that situation, but scum would likely try to paint themselves as the failed target to cover for their teammate failing (even if DV did WIFOM it up end of D1), and DV didn't take that route.
But if we have a jailer and a doctor, all certainty goes out the window. If the doctor protected player A, and the jailer jailed DV, then we don't know whether player A or DV was the NK target, right?
So, why don't we all vote on whether we want the RB (if there is one) to claim? We can start there, and if we all vote yes and nobody comes up as RB, we learn a lot as well. From there, we can decide if we want to do the same for the doctor (again, if there is one).
Quote from Cantripmancer »
If the doctor protected player A, and the jailer jailed DV, then we don't know whether player A or DV was the NK target, right?
Right. In that scenario, all we know is that one of D_V and player A is town, and then we have to analyze the odds of how likely it is that D_V was protected by a doctor and jailer (and also that we have both). This is why I think we should start with the roleblocker, although I'm not certain the odds point towards us having a doctor + jailer or jailer + roleblocker.
@Ghosting: Day one, I didn't really get anything from you that jumped out to me as townie, so I already had you low on my list.
Then (correct me if I'm wrong, going off of memory), but you said you were town reading iso, strongly because he had similar reads to you, right? Specifically his scum reads on Vaimes and DV? To me, the fact that Iso came into the thread without getting any of the context of day one and scum read 2 people who to me seem likely town was suspect, and then you thought this was a reasonable enough thing to do as town which felt incredibly off. And this is the first time you've even addressed my question to you, why wait until now, when you're at the bottom of my list?
I hate the idea of the doctor claiming and think we should never even vote for that, it benefits mafia more than it does town. But assuming thats agreed, then yeah I actually like the idea of voting for the RB to claim. Whats the harm? Mafia knowing which town player has a roadblock ability? Mafia knowing who might block them if they guesses correctly the mafia member who is gonna perform the kill? I like the info we get from that claim (who was targeted N1) more.
Count me in for a vote for RB to claim. Its actually a good plan for town IMO.
Its only effective if everyone agrees, otherwise the player who disagrees can be a roleblocker who won't share it.
Ehhh, how is discussing if D_V is lying or not helping with our situation?
There is a ton of different possibilities for last night, all of which is as good as the other. Discussing it would lead us nowhere.
Instead, we should put actual pressure onto the common scumspects (Hunt, Scarbo, Vaimes and the like) with our vote and gain actual useful information from them.
The deadline is approaching. Should not wait to do this.
Ehhh, how is discussing if D_V is lying or not helping with our situation?
There is a ton of different possibilities for last night, all of which is as good as the other. Discussing it would lead us nowhere.
Instead, we should put actual pressure onto the common scumspects (Hunt, Scarbo, Vaimes and the like) with our vote and gain actual useful information from them.
The deadline is approaching. Should not wait to do this.
Ok. What are you doing to achieve this goal? While you're at it, please weigh in on whether you support an RB claim.
I'll support an RB claim. But what would that mean about the existence of a jailer?
I support an RB claim. If there is a roleblocker, existence of a jailer is slightly less likely, but I don't understand why DV would fake it.
If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. Town could have roleblocker + doctor (design elegance in opposites), but are less likely to have a roleblocker and a roleblocker+ (redundance + makes the roleblocker feel cheated). If both jailer and roleblocker are in the game, one is probably scum.
To the extreme, I think it's almost unfathomable that we have roleblocker, jailer, AND doctor. That's a lot of "NO" happening; tends to have the effect of making everyone feel frustrated/unhappy about their abilities getting nerfed more often than they succeed.
@DV: Confirm that the jailer indicated that he meant to target you (which would eliminate bus driver shenanigans)?
If there's a doctor, the chance of them protecting D_V is incredibly low, and the chance of scum killing D_V are also highly unlikely.
Scum chose not to make the kill? Highly unlikely.
We have a roleblocker? That'd be great, but means they hit scum and aren't claiming it, when we've already hit one scum and the chances of doing that are super slim.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
What I'd really like is for Scarbo to post more. And by more I mean MOAR!!
How, exactly, would they know another scum member? Sure, roleblocker would have a guess (could be his target, could also be DV), but Doc would only have a guess as to who else was likely!Town because that's who they protected, right?
This kind of pondering is the strongest argument for town!DV so far. Sounds like he's seriously thinking out the possibilities and is honestly confused.
Only roles I can think of that would stop a kill other than jailer are doc and roleblocker. Unless...the jailer got redirected? But you said the jailer indicated that he meant to jail you, correct?
Eh, not sure there's any point to this speculation until we know for sure that there's a jailer. I still think that if DV was jailed and is town, it was likely that he was the NK target, despite his efforts D1.
And I love the idea that the mafia didn't kill because they were replacements and missed the deadline.
Moar from Iso would be nice, too.
D_V/Anak scum team confirmed?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
How could it also be D_V?
If roleblocker is player Y and roleblocks player X, and player X makes the kill, but there's no kill, player Y now knows that whoever they roleblocked is scum. If that player isn't scum, D_V 100% is scum, right? So as town, with the position of already having killed one scum, and currently being in the dark with where to go and having people suggest D_V might be town, I definitely think that player either needs to claim, or we need to lynch D_V. Also, the players who think D_V is town need to address that they must think whoever was roleblocked was scum, right? Otherwise they need to have some sort of explanation for the kill.
So since you think D_V is town, do you think the kill was roleblocked? Or how do you think it didn't go through?
I can't help but disagree, it came off as incredibly lazy and fluff to me. None of the reasons are legitimate, and D_V even addresses their illegitimacy. He went from "I'm 90% certain I wasn't the kill", to "Maybe I am the kill" just after I started pressing the issue. "Maybe the mafia were both replacements" is far from serious thinking, and I'm surprised you consider it to be so.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Town
Rodemy
Cantripmancer
Ophidia
Rhand
Anak
Null
Vaimes
Iso/Kitty
D_V
Lean scum
scarbo
Mete0r/Atog
Shadow
Ghosting
Scum
zomgarcwind
This is where my head is currently at.
Also,
@Iso,
I am dying to know why you think I should die, and what my flip would add to your electron cloud method?
Not if we also have a Doc, which they couldn't possibly know!
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
No the jailer would have stopped it there.
I'm just saying there is a role that wouldn't claim additionally.
Post like this make me think Ghosting is town.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Right, except then we're assuming we have a jailer, a roleblocker, a doctor, and that ALL of them targeted D_V, including the scum too?
What's your take on this? How do you account for the no kill and D_V being time? So far I've heard no remotely legitimate reason.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
This.
It's that I feel we are creating these alternate situations when they aren't nearly as likely as what seems obvious. We can try to justify him being town by saying we might have a doctor who might have protected the kill, and all while we also have a jailer who jailed a player on a night we had no kill, but that's relying on a lot of hypotheticals whose likeliehoods aren't really reassuring.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Bro
I'm just going to tell my scum mate to do the kill.
Ehm a scum jailer can roleblock someone and chat him up for the towncred. Seems useful to me lol.
Town:
Rhand
Rodemy
Ophidia
Cantripmancer
Probably town:
D_V (for how Zomg deflected to him after a few votes but before he was clearly going down. Also Zomg said he didn’t believe his claim “at this time”, which probably means he does believe it (#421). Also, Zomg did flip Angela, making the counterclaim from the same team senseless.)
Scarbo (he’s been playing like a strong town PR, which is what I cleared him for earlier, and now he claimed it)
Shadow (sure town if Anak is scum. #563 would be extremely smart scum play. I think that comes from town)
Null:
Ghosting (cannot read him. Probably not scum with Anak)
Iso (nothing on Day1)
Meteor (nothing on Day1)
Lean scum:
Anak (because of his predecessor mainly)
Hunt (for coasting)
Scum:
Vaimes (for Zomg’s T/S and for how he was trying to get attention away from Zomg. Also he kept waffling on me but puts me in blue in his votal analysis)
Are you not reading the thread? I just had a pretty big run of posts where I thought I caught DV making up game history to fit his own false narrative. I'm still reviewing to see where that ends up, but I'm nowhere near convinced that DV is town. As per my T/S list...which you didn't read either?
I didn't think that part was serious; I thought the idea was hilarious. But the rest...yeah, sounded genuine. *shrug*
This. This is the part that I keep coming back to. Unless the jailer shuts down mafia chat, scum!DV being jailed does NOT make sense to be the reason that there was no kill. Like, even when I try to think it out to the end, I see his scummates waiting in chat for him to post...nothing. So they make their plans without him. "And hey, since DV isn't going to do anything else, Mod, we'll have him make the NK." At that point, either Brin has to say "no can do; choose someone else" (which gives the scumteam information that they probably shouldn't have before DV can report back the following Night), or Brin keeps silent, lets them think that DV will perform the kill, and then gets the Bastard Mod of the Year award. Or they DON'T assign missing!DV to make the kill...and then we're at the same place again, with another scum performing the kill and getting stopped somehow.
So, IF DV got jailed (likely, unless ANOTHER town!gambit), he was either the NK target, or something else stopped the kill. Not sure that I ever use Occam's Razor correctly, but I think it points to DV being town and being the NK target. Hmm.
But I also set myself up at the end of the day with a massive WIFOM mess with the most town read player in the game.
If I was scum I would leave me alive simply because of the havoc it would cause on day 2. And look at how much it has. Maybe they can get a free lynch out of the day.
I just don't see it being a good kill.
That actually makes a lot of sense if Vaimes is scum. He put a lot of effort in townclearing DV before the zomg flip. And DV did claim power.
I think Scarbo should come forward with his information now. The cat is half out of the bag anyways.
>lynch very likely would have succeeded because everyone and their mother believes in Lynch All Liars
Really?
Forming a read around a conclusion, Rhand. Bad.
And gun to head, I don't think you're scum. Indecisiveness has never been a scumtell for me.
---
I'm very skeptical of ISO's sudden change of heart. I stopped rewarding people for reading me correctly after getting burned so many times because of it.
Town:
Rodemy
Cantripmancer
shadowlancerx
Lean Town:
Ophidia
D_V
Rhand
Ghosting
Null:
Iso
Vaimes
Lean Mafia:
Scarbo
Anaklusmos (mostly from red_0mega slot)
Strong Mafia Vibes:
Huntzilla
@Huntzilla - Can you elaborate on the Anak/Shadow/Myself reads?
Can I get an explanation for dummies what is the likely scenario in your opinion? Because D_V as mafia doesn't make sense either, as pointed out by others many times before.
I agree. I think the right play as town would have been to wait, and I do believe him that he was going to and just got drunk. But now that its been revealed, the best town play is just share the info.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
The reason I found the other situations less likely as I explained is that they require all these outside hypotheticals that we're totally just guessing on and seem pretty unlikely. So I guess it boils down to whether or not D_V really was jailed? Could he not be scum and be lying about it? If he's lying, everything else is explained, right? We would know he's scum, the kill would be explained, etc. Is the only thing making him potentially town that we aren't sure how the jailer works (if we do have one)?
Again, apologies if these are obvious questions, I'm trying to maintain my knowledge of the game so I'm not totally useless here.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Where do you see this (Vaimes putting a lot of effort into townclearing DV)?
Yeah, this is probably appropriate, especially with his assertion that it makes DV's jailed claim questionable.
Er, sorry. I forgot you were MCAT-ing. Don't mind me; I'll wait until you can actively participate again.
Check out the end of my #1099 for my speculation about whether or not it's logical to think that jailed scum (with a nightchat with his jailer) would be blocked from chatting with his scummates. (Spoiler: It feels to me, if nothing else, like a poorly designed ability, so I don't think it's likely.)
Yeah, it is very likely.
If he is scum the kill still wouldn't be explained, because we have no idea if town has a roleblocker (let alone one who blocked D_V) or a doctor (let alone one who protected who D_V shot if he was mafia). From where I'm sitting, we don't have any information and both cases (town!D_V and scum!D_V) are possible. IMO based on tone and reactions especially town!D_V is more likely.
No need to apologize, real life is more important.
I know.. Reading the Vaimes ISO was like riding a rollercoaster for me. Both of which I don't like btw.
Like I said it was much easier to townread him at Bare Bones. However, he claims he would never play like that again. He doesn't feel like mafia either. I can see cases for both town!Vaimes and scum!Vaimes.
@Vaimes: It's the other way around.
Never. Literally never. Moreover, I find that mechanic to be pretty bastard. Mafia chat is inherent, passive, and fundamental to the scumteam.
Again, it's the same as saying a Jailer could yank a Mason out of Masonchat.
---
Mete0r, does the fact that our scumreads are more or less the same not make you worry if I'm scum or feel better if I'm town? 'Cause like. Four of my bottom five are and have been, Iso/Anak/Hunt/scarbo.
You can be town who has the same reads as I do based on analyzing, or you can be mafia that fake reads for whatever reason and agenda that fits mafia.
At this point in the game it's kind of important. I think it's better to commit and be wrong than waffle and (potentially) change your read as it suits you.
You are asking me to choose between left and right when I don't way which road is right. I can't do that.
Hopefully it will resolve soon enough and I'll get a good read from one or more of your posts (and Iso's).
1) Is jailer chat normal?
2) I read on mafiascum’s wiki that “Because it is a combination Doctor and Roleblocker, Jailkeeper has a myriad of uses while not allowing broken combinations or exactly confirming anyone as Town or scum. Thus, it has risen to prominence as a very popular power role.” Does this mean that creating hypotheticals based on having a doctor and roleblocker is something we shouldn’t be wasting time with?
3) If D_V is town, then the kill was blocked somehow, by either a roleblocker or doctor. So if I’m understanding correctly, in order for us to assume D_V is town, he either had to be the kill, or we have to have a roleblocker/doctor as well as a role that acts as a roleblocker/doctor. If we have a roleblocker, that means they either blocked scum, or scum chose to kill D_V (in order for D_V to be town). If we have a doctor, they had to have correctly chosen the kill, which is both great and interesting odds.
If there is a roleblocker and they claim who they blocked, we discover that either the player they blocked is scum, or scum targeted D_V. If scum targeted D_V, we confirm D_V as town, right? So worst case: roleblocker is outed and D_V is confirmed town. Best case: scum is outed. Is this thinking correct?
If there is a doctor and they claim who they protected, we know that D_V wasn’t the kill, then we know D_V is scum? Because otherwise we have to add in a roleblocker and all kinds of odds and none of that would make sense. But if the doctor protected someone that wasn’t D_V, then that person had to have been the kill, so we confirm that player as town too, correct?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
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StaffShadow
DV
Ophidia
Rodemy
Town lean:
Rhand
Cantrip
Meteor
Vaimes
Null
Iso
Scum Lean:
Hunt
Anak
Scarbo
Scum:
Ghosting
_________________________________
@Scarbo: What happens if someone claims that they were jailed tomorrow?
Do you think that scum!DV and scum!Vaimes would act this defensively regarding each other?
I really don't like the phrasing of this post.
_________________________________
Still have some other questions out to people, if they've been answered and I missed it I'm sorry, I'll be reading the last couple pages again without being overly distracted fairly soon.
When you should be pretty aware that the reads I'm referring to are the ones he opened the game with, and those are the reads that are based on things he did read. You must've just missed that though, right? It wouldn't make sense for town to misconstrue the truth like that.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Well...yes, but he didn't really clear DV there. In fact, all he said in that post (if I'm thinking of the same one: 651) was "I already went over my thoughts on DV" and then didn't include him in his "top 5 scum".
Ok, I know I promised to reread DV, but Rhand's assertion doesn't sound right, so I got sidetracked. Here are Vaimes' thoughts on DV Day 1:
125: First mention was in his big T/S process list. This post struck me as odd, but I didn't really think to comment on it at the time because "different strokes", but the way Vaimes goes about building his list is foreign to me. He eliminates the players he thinks are town (including his odd Zomg-clear), eliminates the lurkers, then finds a group to "poke". No comment on what they've done that hasn't been townie (other than the player he pokes, Omega), and they obviously haven't "done nothing" or they'd be in with the lurkers. That list is: D_V, Kitty/Iso, Atogoholic/Meteor, Omega/Anak.
@Vaimes: Do your early T/S lists often work like this? (Did I ask this already? I have a vague recollection of meaning to ask, but I can't find it...)
271, 276: Asks DV for reasons why Ghosting is scum. Never really follows up on it.
361: Asks DV to justify DV's naked vote on Zomg and asks if neutral claim was legit.
367, 376: Slams DV for claiming to have "given" us Zomg.
423: Votes Zomg. "I guess if zomg flips scum, we can leave DV alone unless it looks like he's a Serial Killer or something. Worth pointing out that he claimed Neutral, but not what kind."
591: Responds to DV's assertion that Vaimes is scum with Zomg. Gives DV 1/10 for getting Vaimes to respond to him.
592: Sounds incredulous that DV believes DV has been providing content.
595: Lists what DV has done (very little), says that the cc outweighs everything if Zomg flips scum, indicates that he was trying to get DV to Do Things.
613: Indicates that DV will be the lynch for tomorrow unless he gets vigged.
@All: I think this has been discussed, at least lightly, but is it possible that a scum!Jailer jailed scum!DV to protect him from a feared vig, and scum!DV decided to run with it and make it public when their NK (performed by a third member) failed? Feel free to poke holes in this; I'm not married to it.
632: Says DV is "cute".
648: This is the only post, I think, where Vaimes really pushes for town!DV (if non-multiball) during D1. It *is* a bit of a turnaround from his previous interactions, but a lot had happened since he had been attacking DV.
651: Big Red Disclaimer Post. One line "you know my thoughts on DV".
658: Indicates that no one's going to lynch Rod over DV.
661: Attacks DV's logic that Rod is scum.
680: Calls DV "cute" again.
681: Says DV's "easy win" comment sounds fake. Questions DV's reasoning on why Vaimes is scum.
So...
@Rhand: I really disagree that Vaimes worked hard to townclear DV at end of D1. Are you seeing posts that I'm not seeing (or that you interpret differently)?
Eh, I could see a mod experimenting in that direction, but this is a normal, and it passed review, so I agree.
EWP: @Ghosting: I feel like your logic may be correct if we have a roleblocker. Yeah, if the roleblocker blocked player A and DV was jailed, then player A likely performed the kill. We still don't know for sure whether DV is town or scum in that situation, but scum would likely try to paint themselves as the failed target to cover for their teammate failing (even if DV did WIFOM it up end of D1), and DV didn't take that route.
But if we have a jailer and a doctor, all certainty goes out the window. If the doctor protected player A, and the jailer jailed DV, then we don't know whether player A or DV was the NK target, right?
Right. In that scenario, all we know is that one of D_V and player A is town, and then we have to analyze the odds of how likely it is that D_V was protected by a doctor and jailer (and also that we have both). This is why I think we should start with the roleblocker, although I'm not certain the odds point towards us having a doctor + jailer or jailer + roleblocker.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
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StaffThen (correct me if I'm wrong, going off of memory), but you said you were town reading iso, strongly because he had similar reads to you, right? Specifically his scum reads on Vaimes and DV? To me, the fact that Iso came into the thread without getting any of the context of day one and scum read 2 people who to me seem likely town was suspect, and then you thought this was a reasonable enough thing to do as town which felt incredibly off. And this is the first time you've even addressed my question to you, why wait until now, when you're at the bottom of my list?
Count me in for a vote for RB to claim. Its actually a good plan for town IMO.
Its only effective if everyone agrees, otherwise the player who disagrees can be a roleblocker who won't share it.
There is a ton of different possibilities for last night, all of which is as good as the other. Discussing it would lead us nowhere.
Instead, we should put actual pressure onto the common scumspects (Hunt, Scarbo, Vaimes and the like) with our vote and gain actual useful information from them.
The deadline is approaching. Should not wait to do this.
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StaffWhat if the RB refuses to claim and we assume that we have no RBer?
What if Iso is a bus driver and switched D_V and Vaimes, with one of them being the GF and the other being the NK target?
I support an RB claim. If there is a roleblocker, existence of a jailer is slightly less likely, but I don't understand why DV would fake it.
If there's both a roleblocker and a jailer in the game, I'd lean toward an alignment dichotomy between the jailer and the roleblocker. Town could have roleblocker + doctor (design elegance in opposites), but are less likely to have a roleblocker and a roleblocker+ (redundance + makes the roleblocker feel cheated). If both jailer and roleblocker are in the game, one is probably scum.
To the extreme, I think it's almost unfathomable that we have roleblocker, jailer, AND doctor. That's a lot of "NO" happening; tends to have the effect of making everyone feel frustrated/unhappy about their abilities getting nerfed more often than they succeed.
@DV: Confirm that the jailer indicated that he meant to target you (which would eliminate bus driver shenanigans)?