Serious question, can someone give me the math for a no lynch in a 12 person game like this, or at the very least can we get some opinions on the subject? My gut again tells me it's a bad idea, but I'd rather see the odds.
@rodemy: this early in the game I'm more inclined to believe Clara's question is non alignment indicative, it seems more like an icebreaker to an early game than anything else, though I do think you're probably right it could have been done differently.
I'm with Rodemy on this one, thetc question gives no indication of Clara's mindset, I could see a scum Clara asking that to get an early feel for who might be an easy lynch.
Vote: Clara
Elaborate a bit on your statement from earlier, so we can get an idea on where you stand...
No Lynch: Why would we do that? I mean this is an open setup and there is the 1-shot Vig, but shouldn't we narrow the pool before bullets fly? Though do admit at least it would put us in the more favorable odd-number pools...
I can let Tom off the hook because he came to a conclusion that prompted more discussion.
I can't let Shock off the hook because he didn't do what he said he was going to do, nor did he respond to Tom's doing of the work.
Follow that up with "explain how that's scummy" and immediately jumping to the conclusion that I thought it was scummy instead of just plain negligent.
You have until 0000 on November 22nd GMT -6 to reach a majority or a No Lynch will occur.
Since the game began on a weekend I gave everyone the benefit of the doubt. From here on prods will be issued after 2 days of inactivity. Repeat offenders will be replaced or modkilled as necessary.
@Seppel: I'm not ignoring the math, I just want you to come out and say it instead of smiley face it away.
...Plus it's been 10 years for me since high school so my figuring statistics is a bit rusty.
With no lynch:
9.09% chance of random player being who the Vig shoots, doc has a 1 in 11 chance of protecting who the Vig will shoot, but have to account for protecting the Vig (no affect on Vig shot) and no self protection...
I'm with Rodemy on this one, thetc question gives no indication of Clara's mindset, I could see a scum Clara asking that to get an early feel for who might be an easy lynch.
Vote: Clara
Elaborate a bit on your statement from earlier, so we can get an idea on where you stand...
The question gives no mindset indication, but it's also a scum mindset?
Unvote
Vote DoTA
You're also over-explaining your vote when all you're really saying is "I agree with Rodemy."
Sounds exactly like last game when he was town. Gotta wait for him to start voting his town reads.
@shadowlancerx: Who are your biggest townread and biggest scumreads right now?
Townread would probably be Vaimes, he's got some strong posts that feel like actually trying to solve the game.
Not necessarily a town read but I won't be voting Zomg unless everyone and their mother is scum reading him, because clearly I'm not capable of correct reads on him.
I'm not hard scum reading anyone at this point, but I find that Tom is again difficult for me, and I don't care much for his seemingly naked vote on Kosa after RVS
Which reminds me unvote
If I had to pick someone to vote right now I'd possibly go Dota, cause he did seem less genuine than did Rodemy when he sheeped him.
Serious question, can someone give me the math for a no lynch in a 12 person game like this, or at the very least can we get some opinions on the subject? My gut again tells me it's a bad idea, but I'd rather see the odds.
Then I realized that a 12 person game might change the math.
silver, why not do Something to strength your [scum/town]read on an unknown?
derp
Not silver; shadow.
Currently I feel like people are super lurky, I'm waiting out posts that are due from several people in response to questions.
I will ask how you feel about all of the naked reads and votes going on. Specifically all of Seppels reads so far, what do you make of that (if you can, avoid using his meta, as I haven't played with seppel)
(Although I'm still quite confused about what's going on. I have a feeling that this is going to be one of those games where I'll spend lots of time trying to get a grip on it)
@Vaimes: If I'd just said, I agree with Rodemy, and dropped a vote, would you still be scum reading me? Your reasoning seems a bit thin - "He explained why he agrees, HE MUST BE SCUM!"
@Kosa: How do you go from defending me in #80 to voting me in #87 with no explanation other than you're sheeping Vaimes. Looking for an easy wagon to join?
@Vaimes: If I'd just said, I agree with Rodemy, and dropped a vote, would you still be scum reading me? Your reasoning seems a bit thin - "He explained why he agrees, HE MUST BE SCUM!"
@Kosa: How do you go from defending me in #80 to voting me in #87 with no explanation other than you're sheeping Vaimes. Looking for an easy wagon to join?
Unvote, Vote: Kosa
It has nothing to do with what you meant and everything to do with how you said it. The word and sentence structure is wholly unnatural. There's no discernible thought process.
Okay why is half the game lurking/fluff posting? Let's try to get something rolling:
@Tom: being self aware about how low effort your posts are doesn't make them any less low effort, what are your actual thoughts right now?
@Shockwave: you got under a bit of pressure and disappeared, you were one of the top posters before that, what gives?
@Kosa: you went from liking Seppel to liking Vaimes and then saying you're confused on the game, do you have any thoughts or do you just plan to coast/sheep?
@Clara: where did you go? You lead with a provoking question, and then disappeared.
_________________________________
@Everyone else: who is your current strongest read, good or bad, ready go!
Liking Vaimes and Seppel and disliking DoTA doesn't exempt me from being confused. My view on the gamestate is fairly superficial (for my standards) when, at this point, it normally isn't. Hence the confusion.
And yes, I'm fine with coasting for now. Cut me some slack, I seldom do it.
I'll show you what you can do with your hardclaim
Serious question, can someone give me the math for a no lynch in a 12 person game like this, or at the very least can we get some opinions on the subject? My gut again tells me it's a bad idea, but I'd rather see the odds.
@rodemy: this early in the game I'm more inclined to believe Clara's question is non alignment indicative, it seems more like an icebreaker to an early game than anything else, though I do think you're probably right it could have been done differently.
unvote vote Kosa you can't have my tears.
Vote: Clara
Elaborate a bit on your statement from earlier, so we can get an idea on where you stand...
No Lynch: Why would we do that? I mean this is an open setup and there is the 1-shot Vig, but shouldn't we narrow the pool before bullets fly? Though do admit at least it would put us in the more favorable odd-number pools...
Clara: ...Seriously, answer.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
*Sounds of scribbling begin*
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
Lynch town
Town nk, vig hits town
Day 2, 6 town, 3 mafia
Lynch town
Town nk
Day 3 4-3 lylo
A single successful lynch/kill moves lylo to d4
A second pushes to final 3 on d5
A third wins the game
No lynching doesn't seem to do a whole lot
D3 is still lylo if the D2 lynch and vig shot aren't good, just at 5-3 instead of 4-3
No lynching only gives us an extra day if the doc successfully stops a kill or the mafia RB stops the vig
Which is pretty long odds realistically...
I'm not really seeing the benefit
I probably deserve to be mislynched by you in some fantastic fashion, but for both our sakes let's not do that.
@Tom: thanks for doing the math.
@Hunt: since no lynch is not optimal here, what say you?
@zomg why the hell would you end rvs and then make a stupid vote based off payback?
Stop. It does us no good.
@tom did you put the vig shot in there as to say we should use it night one?
@zomg what are your thoughts on claras "i've got a secret" post?
ZOMG and Clara are town.
Oh I missed Neoncok. I didn't know that was still a thing.
Hey I like your style.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
I can't let Shock off the hook because he didn't do what he said he was going to do, nor did he respond to Tom's doing of the work.
Follow that up with "explain how that's scummy" and immediately jumping to the conclusion that I thought it was scummy instead of just plain negligent.
So vote Shockwave
His didn't feel serious at all.
When seppel starts town clearing i get nervous.
He did that last time he was scum ._.
Inb4 he makes a crazy claim and tells doc to protect him.
Also @seppel you did! Iso called it Neoncok as well.
Was it you that changed the sign that year?
Also, con plague is real
I liked shockwave. I started to actually think he was town... until he replied "tell me how that's scummy"
I did not see sepples reaction as something indicative of accusing you of being scum, yet your first response is "**** i think he thinks i am scum"
Why so defensive?
tomslogger - Vaimes
Huntzilla - tomslogger
Vaimes - AthiestGod
Seppel - Kosakosa
Kosakosa - Clara_Baer, shadowlancerx
Shockwave07 - Seppel
DotArchon - Shockwave07
Clara_Baer - Rodemy, DotArchon
shadowlancerx - zomgarcwind
No Lynch - Huntzilla
With 12 alive the threshold is 7 votes.
You have until 0000 on November 22nd GMT -6 to reach a majority or a No Lynch will occur.
Since the game began on a weekend I gave everyone the benefit of the doubt. From here on prods will be issued after 2 days of inactivity. Repeat offenders will be replaced or modkilled as necessary.
The Family
I know you are tired of hearing this.
But Vote today.
It's very important. And yes, it may seem like some scum are trying to win the game.
But in all honesty, they are probably just really *****ty town.
Vote.
I cannot second this enough. Most places will still even let you register, go out and do it!
You wanna elaborate?
@Seppel: I'm not ignoring the math, I just want you to come out and say it instead of smiley face it away.
...Plus it's been 10 years for me since high school so my figuring statistics is a bit rusty.
With no lynch:
9.09% chance of random player being who the Vig shoots, doc has a 1 in 11 chance of protecting who the Vig will shoot, but have to account for protecting the Vig (no affect on Vig shot) and no self protection...
Mafia can RB either, but with 1 in 9 odds.
...I need to hit the damn books again.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
The Family
Why is DoTA scum, though? His point on you is pretty much spot on lol (+ your "beware of listmakers" classic stuff)
@Rodemy: I wish I could.
This might not work out for me
vote kosa
It's a really fun reaction test.
You failed the test btw.
Vote Shadowlancerx
Unvote
Vote DoTA
You're also over-explaining your vote when all you're really saying is "I agree with Rodemy."
Atone for your sins. Help me lynch him. You do realize you're still RVS'ing, right? If your vote on shadow is serious, then give a serious reason for it.
Obviously it's a reaction test, that's why I called you out on it. And also why I asked for the math.
@zomg: You're stance doesn't make any sense, you're voting me for what? Being really good at mislynching you? I said I was sorry.
@seppel: Why is Dota scum? That naked read doesn't really do much for us.
I'm sheeping Vaimes so hard
Vote DoTA
Huntzilla is also very obviously scum.
And if one of them is the Roleblocker, lol gg scumteam.
Can I be scum now?
Sounds exactly like last game when he was town. Gotta wait for him to start voting his town reads.
@shadowlancerx: Who are your biggest townread and biggest scumreads right now?
Townread would probably be Vaimes, he's got some strong posts that feel like actually trying to solve the game.
Not necessarily a town read but I won't be voting Zomg unless everyone and their mother is scum reading him, because clearly I'm not capable of correct reads on him.
I'm not hard scum reading anyone at this point, but I find that Tom is again difficult for me, and I don't care much for his seemingly naked vote on Kosa after RVS
Which reminds me unvote
If I had to pick someone to vote right now I'd possibly go Dota, cause he did seem less genuine than did Rodemy when he sheeped him.
Where are you at so far?
silver, why not do Something to strength your [scum/town]read on an unknown?
Shadows 86 is bad.
Sounds like he got caught and jumped back like "pshh, i knew it all along"
Waiting on sepple to reply.
This is me calling him out.
Then I realized that a 12 person game might change the math.
After tom posts the math.
I feel like you're trying to put people under fire really early for shaky reasons.
Not silver; shadow.
Currently I feel like people are super lurky, I'm waiting out posts that are due from several people in response to questions.
I will ask how you feel about all of the naked reads and votes going on. Specifically all of Seppels reads so far, what do you make of that (if you can, avoid using his meta, as I haven't played with seppel)
I liked your reasoning for voting DoTA and the commentary following it.
I'm also in the mood of watching the world burn. New game, new mindset.
@Kosa: How do you go from defending me in #80 to voting me in #87 with no explanation other than you're sheeping Vaimes. Looking for an easy wagon to join?
Unvote, Vote: Kosa
vote shadowlancerX
(Low effort post)
Really? I want a better explination.:(
Yer breaking my heart tom!
No.
Well, now i did.
But no. No i did not. Bad Rodemy.
Okay so huntzilla is clearly overreacting.
He didn't even stipulate how you lost the reaction test. Just.. said you lost and bam.. now you are scum? That doesn't make sense.
@Tom: being self aware about how low effort your posts are doesn't make them any less low effort, what are your actual thoughts right now?
@Shockwave: you got under a bit of pressure and disappeared, you were one of the top posters before that, what gives?
@Kosa: you went from liking Seppel to liking Vaimes and then saying you're confused on the game, do you have any thoughts or do you just plan to coast/sheep?
@Clara: where did you go? You lead with a provoking question, and then disappeared.
_________________________________
@Everyone else: who is your current strongest read, good or bad, ready go!
And yes, I'm fine with coasting for now. Cut me some slack, I seldom do it.
(Liking you for that last post btw)
Rodemy town puppy