I feel like rushing for a massclaim is inherently scummy, and that wanting multiple town day one also is scummy
This is only noteworthy because he is fairly insistent that this is not what we should do.
I can see town thinking anyone disagreeing with him is "inherently scummy" but I can also see scum saying it exactly like this depending on the alignments of the dissenters.
Your negatives seem to greatly outweigh the positive, which itself is barely a positive. If you're in support of this idea, and it has such a big risk, why take that risk?
This is not exactly scumhunting. It's a leading question.
But this is also exactly what got ghosting run up in the past towngame of his I read. So bah.
I do not like that ghosting misses the much more obvious conclusion.
Actually, tangent time:
@Dotarchon
I am reasonably confident you are the ascetic here. If so, strongly consider claiming.
The problem with that was being a "free nightkill" but you are well within PoE range. Making the wolves choose between killing a potential lynch or run into the now better-coordinated protection seems wonderful.
Obviously only respond to this if you decide to claim.
Stopping here to focus on that other game for a bit before running out of time.
I will continue this in a couple of hours.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
grimclaw - Very villagery. Do Not Lynch.
killjoy - That is the entrance of a man that has not read a mafia QT. Do Not Lynch.
iso/nachomamma - Grouping these two together, because both have been rather villagery, but are both capable of faking it.
I cannot in good conscience say "Do Not Lynch" but certainly not today.
That leaves ghosting and dotarchon.
I do not see anything particularly wolfish from either, but it's been reasonably easy to hide in this particular thread (partially my slot's fault).
Of the two, I would say dotarchon is more likely scum with rhand while ghosting is unaligned. So I prefer ghosting for lynch number 2 as we really need to hit one and not get greedy.
Can you explain the bolded for me? If you think I'm the more likely scum, why would you want to lynch Ghosting?
Actually, tangent time:
@Dotarchon
I am reasonably confident you are the ascetic here. If so, strongly consider claiming.
The problem with that was being a "free nightkill" but you are well within PoE range. Making the wolves choose between killing a potential lynch or run into the now better-coordinated protection seems wonderful.
Obviously only respond to this if you decide to claim.
Stopping here to focus on that other game for a bit before running out of time.
I will continue this in a couple of hours.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Reading your case, it feels like you're trying to prove Ghosting is scum but that you don't sincerely believe that he is, yourself.
This is correct. I think (well, hope. Not a particularly strong read obviously) that rhand is, and rhand/ghosting is not w/w.
We need to maximize our chances of lynching a wolf. That does necessitate casing people you think are village, and finding ways for them to be otherwise.
So yes, I used my wolf experience there. I like to think I can build a decent case on anyone, but I guess that method does not work without the obfuscating my motives part that normally accompanies it.
Actually, you know who I am. You saw my old wolf skills, and caught me easily. I can see how that was a little bit like that.
I have [redacted] games as mafia now on various sites. I'm much better now.
Assuming Iso is town, the only reason he'd want to push for the ascetic to claim would be because he's a PR, right? But as a PR, I don't think you'd be so obvious about it.
This post I legitimately hate, but it's a bit too obvious really.
I'd like Rhand to tell me what he thinks of Dota as well.
I think this is a thing that normally looks like a w/w interaction with rhand, and may be what... grimclaw?... was seeing.
But in this context, rhand being run up and also Not Here. It makes considerably less sense.
DoT/Rhand dichotomy?
That sounds interesting, talk to me about it.
Pretty much everything you need to know is in Dota's post #62, and my response in #64. Looks like scumbuddy comes in to defend their friend, or scum comes in to earn town points; I'm obviously leaning towards the former as you can tell from my vote history.
I'd like both of them to post more so we can further analyze the relationship between them both, but I don't know when we can expect that. :/
Curious though, @Dota and @Rhand, do you guys think the other could be scum?
I will come back to this post after I do dotarchon. Maybe rhand too.
I will come back to this post eventually.
But there is that trying to get credit for his earlier post thing that I always notice.
I tend to play pretty poorly early game, so I very well be looking at the situation too shallowly; I do a lot better when I have lots of reads to work off of.
Didn't he already make this post?
There is really not much here. I tried my best.
Again, its been easy to hide in this thread. I apologize on mallorean's behalf.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
Hey NAG, I know you were following Ace Attorney Mafia while it played out. Do you remember any self-disparaging or self-aggrandizing remarks from Ghosting there, as well?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Actually, I disagree that the "town PRs" was unnecessary, there. Why would he want the scum PRs to succeed?
Reading your case, it feels like you're trying to prove Ghosting is scum but that you don't sincerely believe that he is, yourself.
I think this is a strong indicator that NAG and Ghosting are not scum together.
-
@Grimclaw: If I die, please trust me on Nacho.
(I looked for your question and maybe I'm blind but I checked pages 2, 3, and 4 and didn't find it. )
I agree that the case was relatively weak. In fact, he even admits in the case that much of the "scuminess" I'm exhibiting isn't conclusive as he's aware my town play reads this way. Additionally, the points are blatant reaching. For example:
1) Saying town PRs instead of just PRs. There are scum PRs in this game, so the modifier does make sense, and additionally, I've said town PRs as town and scum so many times in my mafia playing history that it has absolutely zero indication of my alignment. Even ignoring all that, if your case against someone has to find reasons like "he said town PRs instead of just PRs", you might want to reconsider your case.
2) "This is probably meaningless, but..." If it's probably meaningless and you're still pointing it out, you're intentionally casting suspicion solely for the sake of casting suspicion. The intent isn't genuine when you're reaching so hard that you know you have to say it's probably meaningless. Again, another indication that the case is weak.
3) In reference to me being against a massclaim:
Quote from not_a_gimmick »
This is only noteworthy because he is fairly insistent that this is not what we should do.
I can see town thinking anyone disagreeing with him is "inherently scummy" but I can also see scum saying it exactly like this depending on the alignments of the dissenters.
So again, a wishy-washy view that means nothing. "I can see both town and scum doing this", and also, "I can see town thinking the opposite of what Ghosting said is scummy". There's sooo many reasons to be against a massclaim, and as town, there's even more. Also, that loaded language. "Fairly insistent", trying to mold the action into something scummy despite me having not even talked about the topic enough to have any view on it be considered insistent, lol.
NAG actually might be scum for this, going to go for a reread after work tonight.
Interestingly, I'm actually thinking Dota might be town for his #177. For reference,
Quote from DoTArchon »
Can you explain the bolded for me? If you think I'm the more likely scum, why would you want to lynch Ghosting?
At the very least, I think it's highly unlikely NAG and Dota are aligned.
Actually we're back to NAG because he posted even more about me and it's still not better lol.
This post I legitimately hate, but it's a bit too obvious really.
Again, suspicion for the sake of suspicion despite an admittance that it's unlikely to be scummy.
I don't like when people insist on the credit they should have gotten from a previous post, but it does not always come from wolves.
See what I mean? Lol. Doing the same thing again.
Pay no attention to my early reads. They will not be right.
Again, I've said this as both town and scum, Hunt has, I think maybe like Seppel has, etc. I thought the scum we lynched was scummy and voted accordingly, and have actively been questioning players. I have no way of knowing if any of my reads are right or wrong, and am simply saying that I tend to feel a lot less lost when I have seen flips. Regardless, this is highly misconstrued and demonstrates your desire to mold a malicious case when there really is nothing.
There is really not much here. I tried my best.
So...you do think I'm scum, or you don't? Lol. I'm glad you can at least agree it was a pretty bad case.
Hey NAG, I know you were following Ace Attorney Mafia while it played out. Do you remember any self-disparaging or self-aggrandizing remarks from Ghosting there, as well?
I do not remember that offhand, but it certainly could have happened.
Again, ghosting does not seem like a wolf.
But there are only so many choices here.
Dotarchon case incoming
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
I do not remember that offhand, but it certainly could have happened.
Again, ghosting does not seem like a wolf.
But there are only so many choices here.
Dotarchon case incoming
"Ghosting doesn't seem like a wolf, but we have to lynch someone!" is equivalent to saying: "Ghosting is probably town, but I am still okay lynching him."
So...you do think I'm scum, or you don't? Lol. I'm glad you can at least agree it was a pretty bad case.
As I said before making the case, in the middle of making the case, and after the case...
No. Not really.
But I feel strongly that grimclaw is village.
Nacho and iso should never be lynched day 1.
And killjoy would have to be wolf with someone equally as not present as himself (rhand/dotarchon I guess) because he clearly had not read a mafia QT with any information in it.
I am not a crook.
So yeah. Rhand, you, dotarchon.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
As I said before making the case, in the middle of making the case, and after the case...
No. Not really.
But I feel strongly that grimclaw is village.
Nacho and iso should never be lynched day 1.
And killjoy would have to be wolf with someone equally as not present as himself (rhand/dotarchon I guess) because he clearly had not read a mafia QT with any information in it.
I am not a crook.
So yeah. Rhand, you, dotarchon.
Right, you don't think it, but are still pushing a case for my lynch. By creating the case and casting the suspicion, despite your own admittance that the points aren't even worth considering, you are pushing a case for a player you think could be town.
There's no reason Nacho and Iso can't be lynched D1, and that kind of mentality just makes their scum games easier.
Your defense re:Killjoy is WIFOM. He was scum and you specifically said not to lynch him. He very well could be scum with Rhand, or Dota, and you even said that you think there is scum between me, Rhand, and Dota...
Killjoy would have to be wolf with...Rhand/Dotarchon I guess
So yeah. Rhand, you, dotarchon.
So if you're sure one of me, Rhand, or Dota is scum, then it's not an implausible scenario like you make it out to be in your defense.
And just to add quickly, the relationship between me, Dota, and Rhand is a false trichotomy. You're presenting us as though we're the only options, when that is not at all the case. This helps scum move town to focus on a small subset which narrows their suspicions and increases the likelihood of mislynching.
My first thought when I read this was that only scum would want a no lynch, but the more I think about it the more I realise that no scum would openly push for something so obviously scummy. Giving scum a free NK is a terrible idea...
Do you truly believe Rhand is scum or are you going for the easy lynch?
This is what made me initially think dotarchon could be scum with rhand.
"No that's too wolfish to come from a wolf" is an extremely soft defense of a buddy, but if he is scum it is strictly -EV to say about town.
Calling him an easy lynch is... probably exactly how a teammate would feel about rhand disappearing.
Rhand has stuck to his guns about his plan in the few posts he's made, while Iso has spent a lot of time on setup speculation and calling Rhand's idea a bad one. Then he proposes that we lynch 2 Day1, NK occurs, then we lynch 1 Day2, and IF we don't lose THEN we can POE for the scum. Rhand's idea has been shot down by multiple people and no one batted an eye at Iso's. Obvious vs not obvious...
More defending rhand. This is probably just the scumteam right here.
@Ghosting: You asked if I think Rhand is scum, answered that at the beginning of the post. My top scum read now is Mal_Thug, he is very different from how I remember him in Off the Grid Mafia. He took charge there from Day 1 and was a strong presence right up until he was NK'd (on Night 1).
If dotarchon, this is clearly him on his back foot.
Again pointing to partnership with rhand and not ghosting (or me, but I may be biased)
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
Right, you don't think it, but are still pushing a case for my lynch. By creating the case and casting the suspicion, despite your own admittance that the points aren't even worth considering, you are pushing a case for a player you think could be town.
There's no reason Nacho and Iso can't be lynched D1, and that kind of mentality just makes their scum games easier.
Your defense re:Killjoy is WIFOM. He was scum and you specifically said not to lynch him. He very well could be scum with Rhand, or Dota, and you even said that you think there is scum between me, Rhand, and Dota...
Correct. This is openly what I am doing.
Why so triumphant to have realized it?
I think rhand/dotarchon is the team. We've already lynched rhand, so there is little reason to lynch dotarchon without his flip.
We are not going for a homerun here. We just need a base hit and drive in the run tomorrow.
If you would like to lynch nacho or iso, make the case.
As I did with you, since I was asked to.
As for killjoy, sure. He could be wolf if only one of rhand/dotarchon is. Which is, again, a reason to lynch you instead.
Honestly, I'm probably the next best candidate in a world where rhand is a villager, which is the world I am attempting to consider right now. Which is why I am hoping rhand flips wolf.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
I should not have a vote down. I was waiting for the rhand lynch to be official before revoting.
But ok. vote ghosting
If you would prefer me today, I do see the reasoning.
Just remember to get dotarchon if rhand flips wolf.
If he flips village, good luck.
And not that anyone really needs this advice, but don't lynch grimclaw.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
I should not have a vote down. I was waiting for the rhand lynch to be official before revoting.
But ok. vote ghosting
If you would prefer me today, I do see the reasoning.
Just remember to get dotarchon if rhand flips wolf.
If he flips village, good luck.
And not that anyone really needs this advice, but don't lynch grimclaw.
MT was voting Ghosting before replacement. I typically won't switch votes when a new player steps in, just update the thingys.
Hello all.
I've been following along a bit and I have two things to say before jumping into a reread:
First, I don't feel the need to engage in any setup discussion. My predecessor has done quite enough of that, and lynching twice today seems by far the best plan.
Second, Vote Rhand
Because I am the hero this town needs right now.
Hopefully he flips scum and that replaces all the ill will mallorean earned with said setup discussion.
I don't like that improving views of your slot is an explicit reason for you hammering Rhand at this moment, and I don't see why you'd bring up something like this unless you were serious.
grimclaw - Very villagery. Do Not Lynch.
killjoy - That is the entrance of a man that has not read a mafia QT. Do Not Lynch.
iso/nachomamma - Grouping these two together, because both have been rather villagery, but are both capable of faking it.
I cannot in good conscience say "Do Not Lynch" but certainly not today.
That leaves ghosting and dotarchon.
I do not see anything particularly wolfish from either, but it's been reasonably easy to hide in this particular thread (partially my slot's fault).
Of the two, I would say dotarchon is more likely scum with rhand while ghosting is unaligned. So I prefer ghosting for lynch number 2 as we really need to hit one and not get greedy.
I don't like how easily you clear Killjoy here - putting him in "Do Not Lynch" implies that all possible scum QTs would be active and engaging while that almost certainly isn't the case unless scum is in a certain set of players.
I don't like your approach to me and Iso; you don't actually try to read us, you just call us vaguely townie and yet nothing is particularly outside of our scum range.
I'll get into more of why I dislike your Ghosting/DoT takes when I'm addressing your walls.
NAG, your Ghosting case doesn't look at all like someone actually making a case on someone that they think could be flipping scum, as Iso pointed out.
In it's entirety, the major arguments that you make in his two walls against him are: he said "town PRs" when he should have said "PRs", he is very likely not aligned with Rhand based on him asking DoT why he wasn't scum since what he was doing was too obvious, you thought that he was scummy for not picking up that DoT's push on Iso might have been because Dot himself was the Ascetic. The majority of your case against Ghosting in the second half of your case against him is that he said that he usually has bad reads D1, and because of a post that you legitimately hated (you didn't explain why you hated that post, but you also thought that it was too obvious to actually be scummy?).
I think your point the "town PR"s point is sufficiently ridiculous to where it's not a point that you would bring up if you were town and legitimately trying to read him. I don't think any of your other points are strong enough to where it would be understandable for you to be legitimately scumreading him, and I don't think that you as town would be pushing for Ghosting's lynch if you didn't think that he was scum. You correctly point out that we want to lynch scum Day 1, and we want to take a conservative approach in hitting scum Day 1 as opposed to a more arrogant "let's lynch the scumteam D1!" approach, but the lesson to be learned from that is that we don't want to lynch player #2 simply because of interactions with the lynched player, not that we should be lynching someone we feel is unlikely to be aligned with the lynched player if they were scum. I don't understand why you would want to lynch Ghosting if Ghosting would be a strong clear of yours if the person who you think will probably flip scum flips scum. In your position, it makes sense to push whichever one of DoT/Iso/me/Killjoy that you feel looks the worst individually, don't you agree?
Your case on DoT is pretty much entirely based on interactions with Rhand, which seems shallow; you don't think anything about DoT looks bad that doesn't include DoT calling Rhand town? You don't see why weak scum defending a partner in an atrocious position so openly seems unlikely?
I also find your clear of Killjoy suspicious when your top suspects all seem to be lurkers.
In other news, Ghosting's recent posting propels him to my high townreads.
I'd prefer a hammer before deadline hits the 24 hour mark; if one of Rhand/NAG is town, I'd like at least a day to process and form some new suspicions so I can have something on record just in case I die during the night.
As I said, no one has actually looked wolfish. That's what happens when a game is almost entirely mechanical discussion. I'm sure I could make a similarly crappy case on anyone else in the game, but there really isn't anything there.
You and iso are never the day 1 lynches. We all know it, and I am not sure why we should pretend otherwise.
As for killjoy, he is a blank. He not only has a higher likelihood of being partnered with rhand, but that would make both lynches completely devoid of information. He, like dotarchon, is a terrible lynch today. Though probably a necessary one tomorrow.
I think the mafia team has an extremely high chance of being entirely within rhand, dotarchon, killjoy.
I see little reason to lynch two of them today, as that world has such a low chance of us losing.
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Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
The player advocating the lynch of any one of half the player base, even though he openly has said he thinks they could be town or that the reasons are probably not true, is looking pretty wolfish to me.
That's what happens when a game is almost entirely mechanical discussion. I'm sure I could make a similarly crappy case on anyone else in the game, but there really isn't anything there.
To reduce the game to simply mechanical discussion is painting an inaccurate picture of the truth. While a large portion of the game has focused on mechanics, we have plenty of wagons, votes, cases, etc. I'll start some more non-mechanical discussion right now:
1) If you think you are a good lynch today, can we lynch you? Would you support it? If not, why say that you understand if we want to lynch you? Unless you're down to agree to it, it just comes across as scum trying to look more town.
2) Is there an order you'd ideally like to lynch in? Does that order change based on any flips?
3) At this point, what are your thoughts on a mass claim? Again, will any flips affect that answer?
You and iso are never the day 1 lynches. We all know it, and I am not sure why we should pretend otherwise.
I am 100% against this kind of behaviour, not only bechase it lets them hide as scum easier, but also because it's making experienced players have an advantage on inexperienced ones. As in, you're now able to more easily push for a lynch by framing it this way.
I think the mafia team has an extremely high chance of being entirely within rhand, dotarchon, killjoy.
I see little reason to lynch two of them today, as that world has such a low chance of us losing.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Pretty sure NaG is scum, I posted my Mal thoughts and NaG's posts about me being the more likely scum but he'd rather lynch Ghosting really looked bad. If he flips town then I have no clue what the hell is going on in this game. We haven't won after the two lynches so I'm even more certain that Rhand is town. Remaining players T/S:
Nacho
Grimclaw
Iso
Ghosting
Killjoy
Thats all the time I have now, dinner then bathing the little one. Once everyone's gone to bed, if the threads still open I'll try to post more in depth thoughts on the T/S.
If NaG if the one who flips scum like I hope and like I expect, then I think the game ends with a Killjoy flip tomorrow. Ghosting, who has already started looking really, really town based on the conviction in his responses to NaG, seems like a very unlikely partner based on the way both mallorean and NaG ended up going after Ghosting (but especially NaG whose case on Ghosting was atrocious; can't see a partner trying to get another partner lynched with an atrocious case like that) and Ghosting's response don't look like "scumbuddy being pushed" at all.
DoT's interactions don't look as good from the Mallorean/NaG side (I can see NaG setting up DoT as a scumpartner of Rhand right before Rhand flips town), but even so, it seems unlikely that DoT would begin by white-knighting easy lynch Rhand to push Iso instead; then, when the push on Iso fails, doggedly pursue scumpartner NaG until he died.
So, if NaG flips scum and the game doesn't end with a Killjoy lynch, then I'd probably reconsider Iso before lynching DoT; probably never lynch Ghosting or Grimclaw in this scenario (although, if forced to choose between the two, would probably end up lynching Ghosting but wouldn't treat that decision lightly).
If Rhand is scum, then Iso gets shifted up pretty heavily in my townreads; townreading him already, don't think he busses Rhand D1 in the way that he would have had to (I think he'd be a lot louder, aggressive about it in order to maximize towncred).
DoT chainsawing a scum!Rhand against Iso seems less likely to me than scum!DoT pushing back against Iso because of a bad push on someone he knows is town, so DoT probably moves up quite a bit.
Killjoy doing nothing but calling his partner town and Iso!town scum as scum seems unlikely from a Rhand partner, but he's probably the first person I'd lynch if Rhand flips scum. After that, would probably move to Ghosting (don't buy into NaG's argument for them being unaligned), then start facing hard choices between the remaining people (Dot --> one of Grimclaw/Iso depending on their play up to there).
If both are town, then Killjoy becomes a strong first suspect before anyone else despite there not being a whole lot there; I think Grimclaw has made some strong cases on players and also seems pretty emotionally invested in his reads, would be surprised if he were scum. Ghosting's response to NaG's poor push on him seemed very much like indignant town (particularly with lines that include "did you forget I was supposed to be on your scumlist"?). DoT doesn't have quite the level of emotional conviction that others have had (and thus would probably end up as a secondary suspect), but he has taken significant risks that it seems unlikely for scum to take (pushing Iso, asking Iso if he was the Ascetic, etc), and Iso's play hasn't seemed anything like his normal scumplay, but he has the greatest capacity to fool me so he would also be a pretty early target of mine.
The worry here would be that there would be two scum in Grimclaw/DoT/Ghosting/Iso, but if that was the case, I think I'd probably be happier handing the win to them than I would be wasting an excessive amount of time trying to give Killjoy time to sufficiently obvtown himself; if we end up in 5p tomorrow, we'll have 2 weeks to coordinate 3 lynches if everything goes well with the need to hit scum on the first lynch; I think that Killjoy would be a better suspect by leaps and bounds than the other four and think that giving the other 4 as much time as possible to obvtown it up and make their cases would be far more productive than waiting and hoping that Killjoy did something productive.
If Killjoy was scum in that scenario and we didn't instantly lose in that scenario, my first suspect would probably be Iso; again, the most capable of fooling us and his initial game was geared towards Rhand over Killjoy, so partners there make a decent measure of sense.
After that, it would probably be something like DoT --> Ghosting, never lynching Grimclaw. Grimclaw looks like the towniest player individually and would be the person whose scumflip would surprise me the most out of anyone else's, but, if we don't hit scum with these first two lynches, it's very very important to be active and take in new information and try not to rush things where possible (but, again, would probably rush that Killjoy lynch simply because 2 scum in Grimclaw/Iso/DoT/Ghosting just seems ridiculous and getting the extra time to discuss the other two lynches would be extremely important).
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'll be very surprised if NAG doesn't flip scum, I won't make this post repetitive by listing all of the reasons; we all know why and that's why we lynched him.
Assuming NAG does flip scum...
Quote from not_a_gimmick »
As for killjoy, he is a blank. He not only has a higher likelihood of being partnered with rhand, but that would make both lynches completely devoid of information. He, like dotarchon, is a terrible lynch today. Though probably a necessary one tomorrow.
I think the mafia team has an extremely high chance of being entirely within rhand, dotarchon, killjoy.
I see little reason to lynch two of them today, as that world has such a low chance of us losing.
This is an example of the many instances NAG tries to persuade town into not lynching NAG. He calls Killjoy a "blank" read, saying that he wouldn't provide any information, implying the lynch is a waste of time. He literally says Killjoy's a "terrible lynch today", and then follows it with "though probably a necessary one tomorrow". The probably and delay are both worth nothing. Scum like indefinite statements + delaying it keeps his scum buddy alive. He says similar things about Dota, but the big difference is that he attempted to make a case against Dota, pushed for his lynch before Killjoy, etc. Another reason:
Quote from not_a_gimmick »
Just remember to get dotarchon if rhand flips wolf.
I think that if NAG is scum, this is simply him casting suspicion on Dota. If he's town, and Rhand does flip scum, maybe it's worth looking into further. I think dichotomies like this are typically pretty bad for town, as they're really just opinions and stating them as absolutes can be dangerous.
Quote from not_a_gimmick »
I think rhand/dotarchon is the team. We've already lynched rhand, so there is little reason to lynch dotarchon without his flip.
We are not going for a homerun here. We just need a base hit and drive in the run tomorrow.
Again, assuming NAG is scum, this reads to me as "Look at me try to be town, I'm not rushing Dota's flip today, and I'm going to include myself in the town with lots of "We" statements and references to winning!" Yet again, NAG appears to be setting up a lynch for tomorrow already. He makes at least 5 references to a Rhand/Dota scum team.
Quote from NAG »
We need to maximize our chances of lynching a wolf
I know we already lynched NAG, but this sounds sooooo fake. I couldn't imagine town saying that, lol.
Killjoy seems like the obvious choice tomorrow.
Is everyone willing to say if they're not the Ascetic?
I will not be able to reach a computer until later, but the thread will be considered in night in exactly 2 hours and 11 minutes. Please make sure there are no posts after that point.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Since I'm assuming we haven't won already, Killjoy is the last scum.
-
Ghosting, casing a dead player isn't terribly useful at the moment.
I was less casing him and more assuming he was scum for the sake of my Killjoy read. If NAG flipped town, a lot of the points I have against Killjoy become moot.
I'm also fairly confident Dota is town now, despite my earlier read on him. His play, responses, and NAG's interactions with him make me fairly certain of that. I'm also townreading everyone else, except barely Iso who is like leaning town.
[quote from="Iso »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/724368-blackout-mafia-day-1-light-it-up?comment=210"]I'm also fairly confident Dota is town now, despite my earlier read on him. His play, responses, and NAG's interactions with him make me fairly certain of that.
I'm townreading DoT for a different reason.
Quote from Ghosting »
Iso, is it safe to say you aren't Ascetic?
Since it wasn't agreed upon to out this info, I won't be answering this question.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
As the day starts, you all rise from your beds as the the next sun rises from its zenith. All of a sudden, you hear the words all fear to hear:
"THE TOUCH OF GOD!"
You find a giant smoldering pile of ash that was in fact, Ghosting. He was modkilled for violating the rules, but will still win if the town can find the evil. He was a Town Tracker
Close to where the bolt struck, Iso was found with a dagger in his back. He was a Town Watcher.
What will happen this day with four players left? Will evil win yet again?
The deadline will end August 8th at 11:59 PM. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Do be careful....
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Yes we are. Lynch one, flip, scum kills one... game over.
Blackout mafia means that we get as many lynches as we want before deadline runs out; game doesn't automatically go to night after a player is lynched.
Have you skimmed Day 1, at least? Do you have reads?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Explain how its not lylo if we can't lynch one person today without losing tomorrow regardless?
Lynching two people is the same thing.
I'm actually pretty sure it's not Dota because of MT's 28. It's a weird scum on scum interaction.
If you actually read Day 1, you'll notice that the NAG flip was an expected one and that we were analyzing what might happen based on NAG flipping scum. I find it ridiculous that you expect us to reanalyze the game when you haven't even analyzed it; I'm also pretty sure that clearing someone in "LyLo" for getting voted in RVS by scum is pretty shallow and that you're aware of that fact. I'm expecting that you are just looking to call DoT town since he hasn't hammered you yet (why did you instantly vote him after both of us voted you, by the way?) and made a town-case based on the first post involving DoT's name you could find.
That modifier is unnecessary from a town perspective. This is only noteworthy because he is fairly insistent that this is not what we should do.
I can see town thinking anyone disagreeing with him is "inherently scummy" but I can also see scum saying it exactly like this depending on the alignments of the dissenters. Ghosting is probably not aligned with rhand OR iso for this. For opposite but equally compelling reasons. This is not exactly scumhunting. It's a leading question.
But this is also exactly what got ghosting run up in the past towngame of his I read. So bah. I do not like that ghosting misses the much more obvious conclusion.
Actually, tangent time:
@Dotarchon
I am reasonably confident you are the ascetic here. If so, strongly consider claiming.
The problem with that was being a "free nightkill" but you are well within PoE range. Making the wolves choose between killing a potential lynch or run into the now better-coordinated protection seems wonderful.
Obviously only respond to this if you decide to claim.
Stopping here to focus on that other game for a bit before running out of time.
I will continue this in a couple of hours.
Reading your case, it feels like you're trying to prove Ghosting is scum but that you don't sincerely believe that he is, yourself.
I think this is a strong indicator that NAG and Ghosting are not scum together.
-
@Grimclaw: If I die, please trust me on Nacho.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
What makes you think I'm the Ascetic?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Your hammer was appreciated.
We need to maximize our chances of lynching a wolf. That does necessitate casing people you think are village, and finding ways for them to be otherwise.
So yes, I used my wolf experience there. I like to think I can build a decent case on anyone, but I guess that method does not work without the obfuscating my motives part that normally accompanies it.
Actually, you know who I am. You saw my old wolf skills, and caught me easily. I can see how that was a little bit like that.
I have [redacted] games as mafia now on various sites. I'm much better now. Hold your horses. I'm getting there. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. No desire to talk more about this.
Eating pizza, then back to my cases. I'll do the other half of ghosting then hit dotarchon and rhand.
But in this context, rhand being run up and also Not Here. It makes considerably less sense. I don't like when people insist on the credit they should have gotten from a previous post, but it does not always come from wolves. Pay no attention to my early reads. They will not be right. I will come back to this post after I do dotarchon. Maybe rhand too.
I will come back to this post eventually.
But there is that trying to get credit for his earlier post thing that I always notice. Didn't he already make this post?
There is really not much here. I tried my best.
Again, its been easy to hide in this thread. I apologize on mallorean's behalf.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
(I looked for your question and maybe I'm blind but I checked pages 2, 3, and 4 and didn't find it. )
I agree that the case was relatively weak. In fact, he even admits in the case that much of the "scuminess" I'm exhibiting isn't conclusive as he's aware my town play reads this way. Additionally, the points are blatant reaching. For example:
1) Saying town PRs instead of just PRs. There are scum PRs in this game, so the modifier does make sense, and additionally, I've said town PRs as town and scum so many times in my mafia playing history that it has absolutely zero indication of my alignment. Even ignoring all that, if your case against someone has to find reasons like "he said town PRs instead of just PRs", you might want to reconsider your case.
2) "This is probably meaningless, but..." If it's probably meaningless and you're still pointing it out, you're intentionally casting suspicion solely for the sake of casting suspicion. The intent isn't genuine when you're reaching so hard that you know you have to say it's probably meaningless. Again, another indication that the case is weak.
3) In reference to me being against a massclaim:
So again, a wishy-washy view that means nothing. "I can see both town and scum doing this", and also, "I can see town thinking the opposite of what Ghosting said is scummy". There's sooo many reasons to be against a massclaim, and as town, there's even more. Also, that loaded language. "Fairly insistent", trying to mold the action into something scummy despite me having not even talked about the topic enough to have any view on it be considered insistent, lol.
NAG actually might be scum for this, going to go for a reread after work tonight.
Interestingly, I'm actually thinking Dota might be town for his #177. For reference,
At the very least, I think it's highly unlikely NAG and Dota are aligned.
Actually we're back to NAG because he posted even more about me and it's still not better lol.
Again, suspicion for the sake of suspicion despite an admittance that it's unlikely to be scummy.
See what I mean? Lol. Doing the same thing again.
Again, I've said this as both town and scum, Hunt has, I think maybe like Seppel has, etc. I thought the scum we lynched was scummy and voted accordingly, and have actively been questioning players. I have no way of knowing if any of my reads are right or wrong, and am simply saying that I tend to feel a lot less lost when I have seen flips. Regardless, this is highly misconstrued and demonstrates your desire to mold a malicious case when there really is nothing.
So...you do think I'm scum, or you don't? Lol. I'm glad you can at least agree it was a pretty bad case.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Again, ghosting does not seem like a wolf.
But there are only so many choices here.
Dotarchon case incoming
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
"Ghosting doesn't seem like a wolf, but we have to lynch someone!" is equivalent to saying: "Ghosting is probably town, but I am still okay lynching him."
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
No. Not really.
But I feel strongly that grimclaw is village.
Nacho and iso should never be lynched day 1.
And killjoy would have to be wolf with someone equally as not present as himself (rhand/dotarchon I guess) because he clearly had not read a mafia QT with any information in it.
I am not a crook.
So yeah. Rhand, you, dotarchon.
Right, you don't think it, but are still pushing a case for my lynch. By creating the case and casting the suspicion, despite your own admittance that the points aren't even worth considering, you are pushing a case for a player you think could be town.
There's no reason Nacho and Iso can't be lynched D1, and that kind of mentality just makes their scum games easier.
Your defense re:Killjoy is WIFOM. He was scum and you specifically said not to lynch him. He very well could be scum with Rhand, or Dota, and you even said that you think there is scum between me, Rhand, and Dota...
So if you're sure one of me, Rhand, or Dota is scum, then it's not an implausible scenario like you make it out to be in your defense.
Unvote, Vote NAG.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
"No that's too wolfish to come from a wolf" is an extremely soft defense of a buddy, but if he is scum it is strictly -EV to say about town.
Calling him an easy lynch is... probably exactly how a teammate would feel about rhand disappearing. More defending rhand. This is probably just the scumteam right here. This is at ghosting, and is a pretty solid unalignment IMO. If dotarchon, this is clearly him on his back foot.
Again pointing to partnership with rhand and not ghosting (or me, but I may be biased)
Why so triumphant to have realized it?
I think rhand/dotarchon is the team. We've already lynched rhand, so there is little reason to lynch dotarchon without his flip.
We are not going for a homerun here. We just need a base hit and drive in the run tomorrow.
If you would like to lynch nacho or iso, make the case.
As I did with you, since I was asked to.
As for killjoy, sure. He could be wolf if only one of rhand/dotarchon is. Which is, again, a reason to lynch you instead.
Honestly, I'm probably the next best candidate in a world where rhand is a villager, which is the world I am attempting to consider right now. Which is why I am hoping rhand flips wolf.
As of post 171, Rhand has been lynched
Vote count 1.05
Killjoy
Grimclaw
DoTArchon
Nachomamma8
Ghosting (1) - not_a_gimmick
not_a_gimmick (3) - DoTArchon, Nachomamma8, Ghosting
Lynched:
Rhand (5) - Iso, Grimclaw, Nachomamma8, Ghosting, not_a_gimmick
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is July 17th 11:59pm.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
But ok.
vote ghosting
If you would prefer me today, I do see the reasoning.
Just remember to get dotarchon if rhand flips wolf.
If he flips village, good luck.
And not that anyone really needs this advice, but don't lynch grimclaw.
MT was voting Ghosting before replacement. I typically won't switch votes when a new player steps in, just update the thingys.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I don't like that improving views of your slot is an explicit reason for you hammering Rhand at this moment, and I don't see why you'd bring up something like this unless you were serious.
I don't like how easily you clear Killjoy here - putting him in "Do Not Lynch" implies that all possible scum QTs would be active and engaging while that almost certainly isn't the case unless scum is in a certain set of players.
I don't like your approach to me and Iso; you don't actually try to read us, you just call us vaguely townie and yet nothing is particularly outside of our scum range.
I'll get into more of why I dislike your Ghosting/DoT takes when I'm addressing your walls.
In it's entirety, the major arguments that you make in his two walls against him are: he said "town PRs" when he should have said "PRs", he is very likely not aligned with Rhand based on him asking DoT why he wasn't scum since what he was doing was too obvious, you thought that he was scummy for not picking up that DoT's push on Iso might have been because Dot himself was the Ascetic. The majority of your case against Ghosting in the second half of your case against him is that he said that he usually has bad reads D1, and because of a post that you legitimately hated (you didn't explain why you hated that post, but you also thought that it was too obvious to actually be scummy?).
I think your point the "town PR"s point is sufficiently ridiculous to where it's not a point that you would bring up if you were town and legitimately trying to read him. I don't think any of your other points are strong enough to where it would be understandable for you to be legitimately scumreading him, and I don't think that you as town would be pushing for Ghosting's lynch if you didn't think that he was scum. You correctly point out that we want to lynch scum Day 1, and we want to take a conservative approach in hitting scum Day 1 as opposed to a more arrogant "let's lynch the scumteam D1!" approach, but the lesson to be learned from that is that we don't want to lynch player #2 simply because of interactions with the lynched player, not that we should be lynching someone we feel is unlikely to be aligned with the lynched player if they were scum. I don't understand why you would want to lynch Ghosting if Ghosting would be a strong clear of yours if the person who you think will probably flip scum flips scum. In your position, it makes sense to push whichever one of DoT/Iso/me/Killjoy that you feel looks the worst individually, don't you agree?
Your case on DoT is pretty much entirely based on interactions with Rhand, which seems shallow; you don't think anything about DoT looks bad that doesn't include DoT calling Rhand town? You don't see why weak scum defending a partner in an atrocious position so openly seems unlikely?
I also find your clear of Killjoy suspicious when your top suspects all seem to be lurkers.
I'd prefer a hammer before deadline hits the 24 hour mark; if one of Rhand/NAG is town, I'd like at least a day to process and form some new suspicions so I can have something on record just in case I die during the night.
You and iso are never the day 1 lynches. We all know it, and I am not sure why we should pretend otherwise.
As for killjoy, he is a blank. He not only has a higher likelihood of being partnered with rhand, but that would make both lynches completely devoid of information. He, like dotarchon, is a terrible lynch today. Though probably a necessary one tomorrow.
I think the mafia team has an extremely high chance of being entirely within rhand, dotarchon, killjoy.
I see little reason to lynch two of them today, as that world has such a low chance of us losing.
The player advocating the lynch of any one of half the player base, even though he openly has said he thinks they could be town or that the reasons are probably not true, is looking pretty wolfish to me.
To reduce the game to simply mechanical discussion is painting an inaccurate picture of the truth. While a large portion of the game has focused on mechanics, we have plenty of wagons, votes, cases, etc. I'll start some more non-mechanical discussion right now:
1) If you think you are a good lynch today, can we lynch you? Would you support it? If not, why say that you understand if we want to lynch you? Unless you're down to agree to it, it just comes across as scum trying to look more town.
2) Is there an order you'd ideally like to lynch in? Does that order change based on any flips?
3) At this point, what are your thoughts on a mass claim? Again, will any flips affect that answer?
I am 100% against this kind of behaviour, not only bechase it lets them hide as scum easier, but also because it's making experienced players have an advantage on inexperienced ones. As in, you're now able to more easily push for a lynch by framing it this way.
And me, right? Or did you forget that?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Vote NAG
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Is there any reason we wouldn't want night now?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Pretty sure NaG is scum, I posted my Mal thoughts and NaG's posts about me being the more likely scum but he'd rather lynch Ghosting really looked bad. If he flips town then I have no clue what the hell is going on in this game. We haven't won after the two lynches so I'm even more certain that Rhand is town. Remaining players T/S:
Nacho
Grimclaw
Iso
Ghosting
Killjoy
Thats all the time I have now, dinner then bathing the little one. Once everyone's gone to bed, if the threads still open I'll try to post more in depth thoughts on the T/S.
DoT's interactions don't look as good from the Mallorean/NaG side (I can see NaG setting up DoT as a scumpartner of Rhand right before Rhand flips town), but even so, it seems unlikely that DoT would begin by white-knighting easy lynch Rhand to push Iso instead; then, when the push on Iso fails, doggedly pursue scumpartner NaG until he died.
So, if NaG flips scum and the game doesn't end with a Killjoy lynch, then I'd probably reconsider Iso before lynching DoT; probably never lynch Ghosting or Grimclaw in this scenario (although, if forced to choose between the two, would probably end up lynching Ghosting but wouldn't treat that decision lightly).
If Rhand is scum, then Iso gets shifted up pretty heavily in my townreads; townreading him already, don't think he busses Rhand D1 in the way that he would have had to (I think he'd be a lot louder, aggressive about it in order to maximize towncred).
DoT chainsawing a scum!Rhand against Iso seems less likely to me than scum!DoT pushing back against Iso because of a bad push on someone he knows is town, so DoT probably moves up quite a bit.
Killjoy doing nothing but calling his partner town and Iso!town scum as scum seems unlikely from a Rhand partner, but he's probably the first person I'd lynch if Rhand flips scum. After that, would probably move to Ghosting (don't buy into NaG's argument for them being unaligned), then start facing hard choices between the remaining people (Dot --> one of Grimclaw/Iso depending on their play up to there).
If both are town, then Killjoy becomes a strong first suspect before anyone else despite there not being a whole lot there; I think Grimclaw has made some strong cases on players and also seems pretty emotionally invested in his reads, would be surprised if he were scum. Ghosting's response to NaG's poor push on him seemed very much like indignant town (particularly with lines that include "did you forget I was supposed to be on your scumlist"?). DoT doesn't have quite the level of emotional conviction that others have had (and thus would probably end up as a secondary suspect), but he has taken significant risks that it seems unlikely for scum to take (pushing Iso, asking Iso if he was the Ascetic, etc), and Iso's play hasn't seemed anything like his normal scumplay, but he has the greatest capacity to fool me so he would also be a pretty early target of mine.
The worry here would be that there would be two scum in Grimclaw/DoT/Ghosting/Iso, but if that was the case, I think I'd probably be happier handing the win to them than I would be wasting an excessive amount of time trying to give Killjoy time to sufficiently obvtown himself; if we end up in 5p tomorrow, we'll have 2 weeks to coordinate 3 lynches if everything goes well with the need to hit scum on the first lynch; I think that Killjoy would be a better suspect by leaps and bounds than the other four and think that giving the other 4 as much time as possible to obvtown it up and make their cases would be far more productive than waiting and hoping that Killjoy did something productive.
If Killjoy was scum in that scenario and we didn't instantly lose in that scenario, my first suspect would probably be Iso; again, the most capable of fooling us and his initial game was geared towards Rhand over Killjoy, so partners there make a decent measure of sense.
After that, it would probably be something like DoT --> Ghosting, never lynching Grimclaw. Grimclaw looks like the towniest player individually and would be the person whose scumflip would surprise me the most out of anyone else's, but, if we don't hit scum with these first two lynches, it's very very important to be active and take in new information and try not to rush things where possible (but, again, would probably rush that Killjoy lynch simply because 2 scum in Grimclaw/Iso/DoT/Ghosting just seems ridiculous and getting the extra time to discuss the other two lynches would be extremely important).
Is there anything outstanding that I need to respond to before Night?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Assuming NAG does flip scum...
This is an example of the many instances NAG tries to persuade town into not lynching NAG. He calls Killjoy a "blank" read, saying that he wouldn't provide any information, implying the lynch is a waste of time. He literally says Killjoy's a "terrible lynch today", and then follows it with "though probably a necessary one tomorrow". The probably and delay are both worth nothing. Scum like indefinite statements + delaying it keeps his scum buddy alive. He says similar things about Dota, but the big difference is that he attempted to make a case against Dota, pushed for his lynch before Killjoy, etc. Another reason:
I think that if NAG is scum, this is simply him casting suspicion on Dota. If he's town, and Rhand does flip scum, maybe it's worth looking into further. I think dichotomies like this are typically pretty bad for town, as they're really just opinions and stating them as absolutes can be dangerous.
Again, assuming NAG is scum, this reads to me as "Look at me try to be town, I'm not rushing Dota's flip today, and I'm going to include myself in the town with lots of "We" statements and references to winning!" Yet again, NAG appears to be setting up a lynch for tomorrow already. He makes at least 5 references to a Rhand/Dota scum team.
I know we already lynched NAG, but this sounds sooooo fake. I couldn't imagine town saying that, lol.
Killjoy seems like the obvious choice tomorrow.
Is everyone willing to say if they're not the Ascetic?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Since I'm assuming we haven't won already, Killjoy is the last scum.
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Ghosting, casing a dead player isn't terribly useful at the moment.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I was less casing him and more assuming he was scum for the sake of my Killjoy read. If NAG flipped town, a lot of the points I have against Killjoy become moot.
I'm also fairly confident Dota is town now, despite my earlier read on him. His play, responses, and NAG's interactions with him make me fairly certain of that. I'm also townreading everyone else, except barely Iso who is like leaning town.
Iso, is it safe to say you aren't Ascetic?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I don't slowroll.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I'm townreading DoT for a different reason.
Since it wasn't agreed upon to out this info, I won't be answering this question.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
not_a_gimmick was Mafia body guard.
You have 48 hours from now to submit your action(s).
The GJ way path to no lynching:
"THE TOUCH OF GOD!"
You find a giant smoldering pile of ash that was in fact, Ghosting. He was modkilled for violating the rules, but will still win if the town can find the evil. He was a Town Tracker
Close to where the bolt struck, Iso was found with a dagger in his back. He was a Town Watcher.
What will happen this day with four players left? Will evil win yet again?
The deadline will end August 8th at 11:59 PM. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Do be careful....
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Vote: Killjoy
Can't really see myself going anywhere else today.
It's lylo. And both of you just voted out of the gate because I didn't really post? No questions for me? Nothing?
Blackout mafia means that we get as many lynches as we want before deadline runs out; game doesn't automatically go to night after a player is lynched.
Have you skimmed Day 1, at least? Do you have reads?
Nothing changed.
Explain how its not lylo if we can't lynch one person today without losing tomorrow regardless?
Lynching two people is the same thing.
I'm actually pretty sure it's not Dota because of MT's 28. It's a weird scum on scum interaction.
If you actually read Day 1, you'll notice that the NAG flip was an expected one and that we were analyzing what might happen based on NAG flipping scum. I find it ridiculous that you expect us to reanalyze the game when you haven't even analyzed it; I'm also pretty sure that clearing someone in "LyLo" for getting voted in RVS by scum is pretty shallow and that you're aware of that fact. I'm expecting that you are just looking to call DoT town since he hasn't hammered you yet (why did you instantly vote him after both of us voted you, by the way?) and made a town-case based on the first post involving DoT's name you could find.
Vote: Killjoy
Killjoy (3) - Grimclaw, Nachomamma8, doTArchon
With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.
The GJ way path to no lynching: