In this exciting 8 player mafia game, there are 2 scum and 6 town. The roles that any player could have rolled are Doctor, Bodyguard, Tracker, Watcher, Ascetic, or 3 vanilla roles. The following rules are common knowledge due to the open set up:
1). The above roles could be on either side.
2). The deadline is two weeks. Until the deadline reaches an end, any number of lynches may occur. The day can end prematurely by a majority vote of "no-lynch".
3). Upon a player being lynched, that player's role pm will not be revealed,.
4). At the end of the day, all players who were lynched will have their role pm revealed.
5). Mafia will have day chat.
6). The mafia factional kill may be used with any ability they may or may not have gained.
Still in the Light 4/8
1. Killjoy
2. Grimclaw
4. DoTArchon
5. Nachomamma8
6. Ghosting
7. Iso
8. mallorean_thug
Descended into Darkness Lynched Day 1
Rhand, Town Vanilla
not_a_gimmick, Mafia Bodyguard
Killed Night 1
Iso, Town Watcher
Ghosting, Town Tracker (modkilled)
So, it seems like the best way to use this setup (at least as best I can tell) is to lynch one or two players every Day. Any more than that and I get uncomfortable without some colors in the OP.
Opening thoughts about the setup:
I think the Doctor, Ascetic, and Tracker should claim, possibly also the Watcher, and they should have lynch immunity for Day 1.
On Night 1, the Watcher targets the Doctor, the Doctor targets the Tracker, and the Tracker runs loose. We lynch on behavior and reconvene later on, and don't waste our investigations or protections on the Ascetic.
Any input on this? At the very least, the Ascetic should claim on Day 1 as they are effectively a Miller, here.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Ok, let's take a moment to go over the implications of the "lynch as many times as we want" rule. Here's a list of what we could do (ignoring doc saves and winning early)
A) Lynch 1 Day1, Lynch 1 Day2, Lynch 2 Day3
Allowable mislynches: 2 (but the second only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
H) Lynch 6 Day1
Allowable mislynches: 4 (but the fourth only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
So, we have a tradeoff to make between having more mislynches to play with vs having more information from night actions by deciding whether 4, 5, or 6 of the possible kills this game are directed by the thread.
Additionally, we can decide which lynches we want to maximize flip information on. Compare E) and F) assuming we've lynched twice and we're considering the same player for our 3rd lynch in both scenarios. In E), we'd have more information before actually making that 3rd lynch (#1 & #2's flips + everybody's Night actions). In F) we'd have less information for that lynch, but /more/ information for lynches #4 and #5, because we'd also have #3's flip (though the utility of this could be less than that because of losing the night action from #3's possible role)
So, as an open question to the thread, which of these lynch scenarios should we pursue? (I have an opinion on this, but I'll be withholding my answer until more of the thread has checked in)
I think the Doctor, Ascetic, and Tracker should claim, possibly also the Watcher, and they should have lynch immunity for Day 1.
On Night 1, the Watcher targets the Doctor, the Doctor targets the Tracker, and the Tracker runs loose. We lynch on behavior and reconvene later on, and don't waste our investigations or protections on the Ascetic.
Any input on this? At the very least, the Ascetic should claim on Day 1 as they are effectively a Miller, here.
Doctor and Tracker should both claim if they're facing a lynch (and we'll consider moving the lynch elsewhere at that point), but they should absolutely /NOT/ claim right away. Giving people lynch immunity from the start of the day1 absolutely wreck's town's ability to do votal analysis later.
Besides that, I think your plan is exceptionally bad if we only plan on having 2 day phases instead of 3. You're basically making the watcher unable to catch fakeclaims and/or the nk, AND the doctor unable to bounce a kill in order to get a guaranteed Tracker result and more power roles alive going into Night 2. Even if we do have a Night 2, it also loses a lot of value in worlds where any of doc/tracker/watcher are scum because you're giving the doc and watcher safe things to trueclaim and a built in explanation why they didn't catch anybody/bounce a kill, and getting a guaranteed tracker result doesn't do much if the tracker is scum and doesn't have to worry about getting caught out by the Watcher or Ascetic.
As far as an Ascetic claim goes, I do think that the upside of not wasting our tracks/docs on him probably outweighs telling the scumteam which player won't be getting protected toNight and him being able to catch certain varieties of fakeclaims. But he still should /NOT/ claim right now, again because it ruins votal stuff for the entire day. If we decide the Ascetic should claim, they should do so at the last possible moment before Night.
My idea on playing this one optimally:
No claims, no lynch Day 1.
Day 2 we massclaim in order: vanilla's - ascetic - bodyguard - doc - tracker - watcher.
We lynch a vanilla or ascetic. Watcher watches doc, doc protects tracker, bodyguard protects watcher/doc (wifoms between them)
Day 3 we masslynch.
@Mall: why not consider no lynch Day 1?
@Iso: why not include the bodyguard in your plan? Why call the ascetic miller? Sounds like you know his alignment.
I'm glad that everyone feels differently about setup speculation!
We will need to utilize multiple lynches (at least 2 on D1) in order to keep town controlled kills vs mafia controlled kills to a minimum.
I would only lynch twice for Day 1 in order to give us a chance to see flips and see where we stand after our initial push; no town power roles claim, everyone just tries to screw over mafia in the one night we will have, and then we masslynch until we win or lose.
So, it seems like the best way to use this setup (at least as best I can tell) is to lynch one or two players every Day. Any more than that and I get uncomfortable without some colors in the OP.
Opening thoughts about the setup:
I think the Doctor, Ascetic, and Tracker should claim, possibly also the Watcher, and they should have lynch immunity for Day 1.
On Night 1, the Watcher targets the Doctor, the Doctor targets the Tracker, and the Tracker runs loose. We lynch on behavior and reconvene later on, and don't waste our investigations or protections on the Ascetic.
Any input on this? At the very least, the Ascetic should claim on Day 1 as they are effectively a Miller, here.
Publicly directing the PRs is weak when there will likely only be one night to deal with PRs; scum's real aim during that single night will be to not get screwed over, and that's far easier to do when everyone is publicly directed.
Mall, best path in my opinion is to emphasize day play by giving the most mislynches allowable without being devoid of information (thus, a plan that gives us 3 mislynches). Two lynches D1, Three D2 seems the best to me since it avoids the possibility of us losing without flips while still maximizing early information gained.
I don't understand the benefit in Rhand's plan - mafia get a free kill, tracker has abysmal chances of randomly catching a killer and watcher catches a killer with slightly higher odds but only if mafia pick an obvious target whereas bodyguard and doctor blocking a kill gain us absolutely nothing. Then, we avoid scumhunting in the better roles, give scum another free nightkill where all they have to fear is the tracker, and then play from there - reliance on randomly assigned PRs means that we're basically at the mercy of RNG for scum getting bad roles and town getting good roles unless I'm missing something in your plan somewhere.
That's where I disagree. If scum needs to lie, then that creates dichotomies.
We can just lynch those.
If they don't lie, they might have to clear townies.
But maybe I need to think the kind of wifom this will generate through more. I might be naive about the info this all nets us.
Anyways, if we do lynch toDay, then I believe having the ascetic claim and lynching him is optimal.
If he's scum he won't claim and hide among the vanilla's, which is easy to test.
For the second lynch, I really think we need to avoid lynching not-ascetic PR's toDay. When someone is ran up, they should not claim role but just "PR" or "not PR".
If scum vanilla claims PR, he'll automatically be counterclaimed toMorrow when we massclaim, netting us a free scum lynch.
Long answer:
Given the fact that GJ is the gamehost, I considered it and considered including no-lynch scenarios in my list. But, no-lynching in a setup that doesn't include guaranteed strong town info roles doesn't do much, especially when scum can just generally true-claim. And it completely blanks Day1 for votal analysis.
That's where I disagree. If scum needs to lie, then that creates dichotomies.
We can just lynch those.
If they don't lie, they might have to clear townies.
Scum don't need to lie in this setup, and them telling the truth doesn't really clear anybody.
I don't see a world where having wagon analysis is strictly worse than potentially having no information from a Night and losing PRs. I find it extremely hard to believe that you actually think this is a good plan.
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Thinking further on it, I think only the Ascetic should claim toDay without being run up; if they're scummy, we lynch them, which is simple enough. The benefits outweigh the negatives, here; if the Ascetic is scum, they already know who the Ascetic is. If the Ascetic is town, that means that the scum only have one less slot to PR hunt for. In the extremely unfortunate circumstance of both scum being power roles, we have our work cut out for us - but I like the idea that if someone is scummy enough and claims a role, we have 0 reason NOT to lynch them because we know they can be scum. This setup flips the idea that PRs shouldn't be lynched on its head, which is something I'm always pushing in light of how many falseclaims we see on a regular basis.
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As for how we should lynch: I forgot for a moment that there were 8 players and for some reason thought there were 6 and was going to say that we absolutely need to lynch 2 toDay, but then I scrolled up to the OP to double-check and that's not the case!
That said, I do kind of like the idea of lynching two people on Day 1; it's kind of like having a DayVig shot but with the benefit of an extra wagon to analyze!
After that, I think we have to see what our flips are before I can determine what the best course of lynch action would be.
Let's try to figure out who the two best wagons are for toDay and go from there. So far, I'm not terribly with the idea of Rhand or Grimclaw being town.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Tracker and watcher can also catch lying docs and bodyguards.
Which is why I prefer 2 Nights of full action.
With all PR's having to claim actions twice, we can catch them in lies.
There's absolutely no reason for docs or bodyguards to lie; if they are scum, they target someone different for the nightkill. The only way we can possibly get useful information is if the tracker or the watcher see something, but the chances of them doing that successfully fly down to zero if scum have watcher or tracker.
That's where I disagree. If scum needs to lie, then that creates dichotomies.
We can just lynch those.
If they don't lie, they might have to clear townies.
But maybe I need to think the kind of wifom this will generate through more. I might be naive about the info this all nets us.
Anyways, if we do lynch toDay, then I believe having the ascetic claim and lynching him is optimal.
If he's scum he won't claim and hide among the vanilla's, which is easy to test.
Again, scum don't need to lie. Scum telling the truth does not clear townies, it just means they are telling the truth.
The problem is not WIFOM; the problem is that when scum has public roles like this is that they can use them and claim them honestly and leave us completely in the dark, which likely leaves us in a near vanilla setup where we have 2 possible mislynches before we lose instead of the usual three. This is not optimal.
Having the ascetic claim so they can be auto-lynched is nonsensical; sacrificing lynches when we're behind on numbers to begin with in order to make info that probably won't be useful less likely to be messed with is not a good strategy. The point is that we have the potential for more lynches than we would have in a regular game, and in the one night that we will have, we will have a lot of opportunities to gain info or gain an extra lynch if a kill is blocked.
For the second lynch, I really think we need to avoid lynching not-ascetic PR's toDay. When someone is ran up, they should not claim role but just "PR" or "not PR".
If scum vanilla claims PR, he'll automatically be counterclaimed toMorrow when we massclaim, netting us a free scum lynch.
No, they won't; scum PR in less danger can lend them their PR to claim.
If anything, the ascetic seems the last person who should claim to me. The benefits are that the town power roles know who not to target right, but other than the doctor those are not particularly useful anyway. The negatives are that, if the ascetic is town, the scum get to know the one person who can't be protected nor watched at night. As the scum in this setup don't particularly care who dies at night, as long as someone does, that seems like the perfect way to make even the doc useless this game...
The Watcher is stictly superior to the doctor since if they target the nightkill, they can out the scum who targeted them.
The Tracker can confirm players as scum or town once one scum has died, has the possibility to catch out scum before then.
Bodyguard can guarantee either the Watcher or Tracker survives to get an investigative result.
The only powerrole that does absolutely nothing is the Ascetic, who only functions as an easy kill from Mafia and who can interfere with watcher/tracker results.
Your concern seems to be that the Ascetic will be killed by the mafia, but that's a great thing for us; the ascetic getting shot means that the doctor, watcher, tracker, and bodyguard aren't getting shot.
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@Iso: Do you think that Rhand's goal here is to sell us an utterly terrible plan and then just sort of hope that every buys it and doesn't see the obvious flaws in it? I don't.
There's a difference between "Scum don't need to lie, so a plan whose primary benefit is catching scum lying is bad" and "Scum won't ever lie, so we don't need to hedge against them lying". Also, while my current valuation for this setup is "Scum probably shouldn't lie outside of a couple specific gambits", I'm not naive enough to think that everybody else in this game, most of whom I haven't played with and all of whom come from a completely different meta than what I'm used to, will have the same valuation I do. Scum could disagree with me on this, scum could have the roles for "a couple specific gambits", or scum could just be bad at open setups without set alignments for roles.
I understand the normal role of a watcher yes. That's not how it works in this game though. It's still a toss up who to believe between the watcher and the killer, with no real time to sort out what's what. Do the math, we won't have the luxury of lynching one, going to night for a reveal, then lynching the other.
The same applies to the tracker.
This is actually part of why I'd like our plan to be an option select between B) and C).
Had you thought about this issue when you said that you were going to /barn Nacho on 2 lynches Day1 being best?
@GJ: Does the game end automatically if mafia reach parity with town/mafia is eliminated?
Yes. The game immediately ends in both mafia members are killed, or if the mafia ever equal the living town players (so 2-2 or 1-1) since they can force a standstill with the town.
The Watcher is strictly superior to the doctor since if they target the nightkill, they can out the scum who targeted them.
I understand the normal role of a watcher yes. That's not how it works in this game though. It's still a toss up who to believe between the watcher and the killer, with no real time to sort out what's what. Do the math, we won't have the luxury of lynching one, going to night for a reveal, then lynching the other.
The same applies to the tracker.
So given that, why do I care who the mafia kills if they're successful? Whether its a VT or a PR that dies, the result on the numbers is the same, and any investigative results are pretty much useless regardless. The only real difference can be made by a successful doc protect. The doc can protect anyone other than himself and the ascetic, therefore it's in the mafia's best interest to find out at least one of those two roles in order to get a safe kill.
If we lynch scum before we go to night, then we will have the luxury of lynching both of them and will win the game as a result. The chances of this happening go up if we lynch twice D1 instead of once.
If we don't lynch scum before we go to night, then it still boils down to a 50-50; and, if we make the correct call in 5p LyLo after mislynching twice, then we'll end up with 4 players: 1 mafia, 1 close to confirmed town, and two lynches to find them, which is still pretty sweet odds. If we fail to lynch scum in our first two D1 chances and we fail to lynch scum in the 50-50 call during LyLo, then I think that the loss we'd get there would be pretty deserved, don't you?
Quote from Nacho »
Your concern seems to be that the Ascetic will be killed by the mafia, but that's a great thing for us; the ascetic getting shot means that the doctor, watcher, tracker, and bodyguard aren't getting shot.
So no, that's not a great thing for us, it's exactly as bad as any other townie dying, no more no less.
We seem to disagree on the usefulness of the investigative roles, so can you explain to me how you believe they can be useful in this particular game?
I hope that my above paragraph did a little towards showing how investigative roles can be useful; if I didn't address your concerns in full let me know and I'll approach it from a different angle if possible.
This is actually part of why I'd like our plan to be an option select between B) and C).
Had you thought about this issue when you said that you were going to /barn Nacho on 2 lynches Day1 being best?
I really, really think that it's important to be working with as much information as possible before we have a chance of losing; in the case of B, if we mislynch once, we have no information until the game is over, which is incredibly brutal. In the case of C, we don't know if we're about to win or about to lose and I think that's sucks a lot.
I know that my argument right now is choppy and sloppy because it's being typed up in a rush before I leave out the door, but I really think that it's important that town knows exactly where they stand after that first night and lynching twice during D1 gives us exactly that. If we mislynch twice, there will probably be 5 alive, meaning that every townie knows that if they have more than 2 townreads they're reading the game wrong and if we manage to hit scum, then everyone knows that we're in a pretty good position and only looking for one scum player.
@Iso: Do you think that Rhand's goal here is to sell us an utterly terrible plan and then just sort of hope that every buys it and doesn't see the obvious flaws in it? I don't.
Rhand's a good player but his scum game is a little sloppy, these days. It absolutely would not surprise me if this were exactly what was happening.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I really, really think that it's important to be working with as much information as possible before we have a chance of losing; in the case of B, if we mislynch once, we have no information until the game is over, which is incredibly brutal. In the case of C, we don't know if we're about to win or about to lose and I think that's sucks a lot.
Don't get me wrong, option E) is easily the third best option from my initial list (and 4 of the other options are completely unacceptable), and I'd be fine going with it.
I'd just prefer to only do one lynch toDay because:
1. If we have duplicate claims during massclaim, I'd like the option of lynching both. Not necessarily because that's what we'd do, but because the threat of doing so makes scum gambits far less likely and strengthens town power roles.
2. The scumteam knows the setup. We don't. They know if its better for their role and player distribution to have 2 days or 3 days. I think it would better for town to maintain strategic ambiguity on that point until after the massclaim on Day2. And I think that the average strength of plans B) and C) is better than D) and E), mostly because I think option D) is much weaker than the other 3.
3. The more wagons we run up today, the more claims we're going to run into. This is part of the playing the game, but keeping roles on the down low as much as possible is in our interest toDay.
4. I don't think that there's going to be much separation between our two wagons today if we go for lynching two. People just aren't going to care enough on Day1 to reconsider or draw new lines. While I think that Day2, we won't have as much of that problem because we'll either have a pile of lynches to find the scumbuddy and we won't need to do much reconsidering. -OR- we'll need to the second lynch that day like we're in LYLO, which usually does a great job of focusing people's minds.
As far as your concern, not knowing if we're in LYLO or not, that just isn't as much of a concern for me. The other sites I usually play on play -Hunt setups with no flips. I'm used to not knowing if I'm in LYLO or not, and having to plan for multiple possible worlds. Its very very doable, AND it gives you another strong tell to look for (scum know whether you're in LYLO or not, and obviously will be voting very differently if you are).
MY only concern is that I'm not sure we'll actually be up for the logistics of lynching 4 people in a single phase. That's roughly equivilent to 72 hour phases if we spread them out, which I can do, but idk about the rest of the playerlist. If the group really doesn't think that we could actually follow through on a 4 lynch day phase, I'd be fine going with the more conservative and lower payoff option E). Going for the high damage combo doesn't really matter if you drop it half way through.
Sorry guys, thought I had subbed to this and that it hadn't started yet, found out I hadn't subbed at all lol.
I haven't read much yet so will come back to soon to add more detailed comments, but I think we should aim to lynch just one person today. There's a lot of information to gain from lynching two people day one, but I think the risk of lynching two town would be too great to chance. It'd be different if we mass claimed, but there's no reason to do that just yet. I do somewhat support a mass claim D2, maybe D3.
How does the ascetic role work in this game? I'm seeing a couple of different things online.
@Iso: Do you think that Rhand's goal here is to sell us an utterly terrible plan and then just sort of hope that every buys it and doesn't see the obvious flaws in it? I don't.
Rhand's a good player but his scum game is a little sloppy, these days. It absolutely would not surprise me if this were exactly what was happening.
I agree that Rhand has a sloppy scum game from time to time, but I find that the sloppiness is bad reads and complete lack of engagement as opposed to a misplaced sense of superiority. Do you disagree or am I reading the situation wrong somewhere?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Ghosting: In my experience, Ascetics nullify non-killing roles that target them.
Is that always anti-town then? It seems like if any town PRs targetted them, they become useless, which seems anti-town to me.
If my assumptions are correct, and the Ascetic is willing to claim, I don't see how that doesn't benefit us. But again, I may be totally wrong as I didn't even know what ascetic was until just now lol.
Don't get me wrong, option E) is easily the third best option from my initial list (and 4 of the other options are completely unacceptable), and I'd be fine going with it.
I'd just prefer to only do one lynch toDay because:
1. If we have duplicate claims during massclaim, I'd like the option of lynching both. Not necessarily because that's what we'd do, but because the threat of doing so makes scum gambits far less likely and strengthens town power roles.
2. The scumteam knows the setup. We don't. They know if its better for their role and player distribution to have 2 days or 3 days. I think it would better for town to maintain strategic ambiguity on that point until after the massclaim on Day2. And I think that the average strength of plans B) and C) is better than D) and E), mostly because I think option D) is much weaker than the other 3.
3. The more wagons we run up today, the more claims we're going to run into. This is part of the playing the game, but keeping roles on the down low as much as possible is in our interest toDay.
4. I don't think that there's going to be much separation between our two wagons today if we go for lynching two. People just aren't going to care enough on Day1 to reconsider or draw new lines. While I think that Day2, we won't have as much of that problem because we'll either have a pile of lynches to find the scumbuddy and we won't need to do much reconsidering. -OR- we'll need to the second lynch that day like we're in LYLO, which usually does a great job of focusing people's minds.
1. It's a nice option to have, sure, but I don't think it's an option that offers us significant advantage. Mafia can only fake a guilty if they have either the Watcher or the Tracker roles and they don't get lynched D1, and typically, claim situations like this end up in obvious alignments based on offense or lack of defense.
2. Regardless of scumteam distribution, scum having as many nights as possible is only to their advantage; if I rolled scum in this game, I would likely push a multi-night plan because it would increase the chances of me being able to take out people who are threats in day play. If scum only get one night to shoot and they have multiple guards against shooting people, then they won't be able to shoot who they want without getting ****ed over.
3. Don't care about roles; town can have them, mafia can have them. Claims won't be able to save people today, scummy people get lynched regardless of their role claim.
4. I disagree completely with this point; why do you think that it's in the case? I plan on playing hard and fast, and I plan and having influence while I do so. If Iso is scum, I have a little bit of vengeance that I've been seeking, and if I'm town, I'm sure he will play as hard as fast as I will. We are not in a large enough game where there's an excuse for apathy or laziness in these first couple of lynches, and leading by example is typically a pretty effective strategy and I promise I'll be a good role model for all the lurking girls and boys.
As far as your concern, not knowing if we're in LYLO or not, that just isn't as much of a concern for me. The other sites I usually play on play -Hunt setups with no flips. I'm used to not knowing if I'm in LYLO or not, and having to plan for multiple possible worlds. Its very very doable, AND it gives you another strong tell to look for (scum know whether you're in LYLO or not, and obviously will be voting very differently if you are).
MY only concern is that I'm not sure we'll actually be up for the logistics of lynching 4 people in a single phase. That's roughly equivilent to 72 hour phases if we spread them out, which I can do, but idk about the rest of the playerlist. If the group really doesn't think that we could actually follow through on a 4 lynch day phase, I'd be fine going with the more conservative and lower payoff option E). Going for the high damage combo doesn't really matter if you drop it half way through.
Witchhunt is a much, much different world than this game is. In Witch Hunt, you have a Priest who has hard information and an Acolyte who has hard information and oracles and etc etc that compensate for the lack of flips; in this game type, we have a watcher and a tracker for our investigative roles that could end up accomplishing absolutely nothing. Working with no flips in this game means working with no hard information and believe me when I say that is not something that we want at all.
Your concern on the 4 lynch day phase is noted, but again, I don't forsee it becoming a problem. If the town is active and engaged, we will win this game. If it isn't (which is the only reason we wouldn't be able to swing the 4 lynch day phase), then we're probably losing and a more conservative lynch plan won't be able to compensate for it.
Sorry guys, thought I had subbed to this and that it hadn't started yet, found out I hadn't subbed at all lol.
I haven't read much yet so will come back to soon to add more detailed comments, but I think we should aim to lynch just one person today. There's a lot of information to gain from lynching two people day one, but I think the risk of lynching two town would be too great to chance. It'd be different if we mass claimed, but there's no reason to do that just yet. I do somewhat support a mass claim D2, maybe D3.
How does the ascetic role work in this game? I'm seeing a couple of different things online.
If we mislynch one person on day 1, then we enter day 2 with probably 6 people alive, meaning we can lynch one person whose flip we won't know and then maybe another if we lynch scum. That scenario sucks and is not one that I like at all. Lynching at least one scum on Day 1 makes all of our power roles more effective and takes away the scum's ability to fake claim, and it's completely reasonable if everyone pulls their weight. Massclaiming Day 2 makes sense but we really want to take the emphasis on power roles on this game style; if they can **** over scum, great, but we should be assuming that they don't.
Ascetic cannot be targeted by any role; it reflexively roleblocks anyone that targets it.
So if a doctor protects an ascetic that is also shot by the mafia, the ascetic dies.
If a watcher watches an ascetic that is shot by the mafia, the watcher sees nothing.
If a tracker tracks an ascetic that kills someone, the tracker sees nothing.
Make sense?
I also find myself coming over to Grimclaw's side that the Ascetic role shouldn't claim.
@mallorean: What information were you hoping to attain by slowrolling which option you thought was best?
Literally anything? Not triple posting in the first 5 post of the thread? Not starting the conversation I'm having with Nacho right now until everybody had showed up and posted at least once (oops, that one didn't happen)?
If we are lynching two people today, how should we budget our time? Should we set a soft deadline for ourselves to lynch one player by next monday, and then spend the second week on our second lynch? Or should we spend the full two weeks discussing before lynching both targets back to back before deadline? Something in between?
1. It's a nice option to have, sure, but I don't think it's an option that offers us significant advantage. Mafia can only fake a guilty if they have either the Watcher or the Tracker roles and they don't get lynched D1, and typically, claim situations like this end up in obvious alignments based on offense or lack of defense.
2. Regardless of scumteam distribution, scum having as many nights as possible is only to their advantage; if I rolled scum in this game, I would likely push a multi-night plan because it would increase the chances of me being able to take out people who are threats in day play. If scum only get one night to shoot and they have multiple guards against shooting people, then they won't be able to shoot who they want without getting ****ed over.
3. Don't care about roles; town can have them, mafia can have them. Claims won't be able to save people today, scummy people get lynched regardless of their role claim.
4. I disagree completely with this point; why do you think that it's in the case? I plan on playing hard and fast, and I plan and having influence while I do so. If Iso is scum, I have a little bit of vengeance that I've been seeking, and if I'm town, I'm sure he will play as hard as fast as I will. We are not in a large enough game where there's an excuse for apathy or laziness in these first couple of lynches, and leading by example is typically a pretty effective strategy and I promise I'll be a good role model for all the lurking girls and boys.
Witchhunt is a much, much different world than this game is. In Witch Hunt, you have a Priest who has hard information and an Acolyte who has hard information and oracles and etc etc that compensate for the lack of flips; in this game type, we have a watcher and a tracker for our investigative roles that could end up accomplishing absolutely nothing. Working with no flips in this game means working with no hard information and believe me when I say that is not something that we want at all.
Your concern on the 4 lynch day phase is noted, but again, I don't forsee it becoming a problem. If the town is active and engaged, we will win this game. If it isn't (which is the only reason we wouldn't be able to swing the 4 lynch day phase), then we're probably losing and a more conservative lynch plan won't be able to compensate for it.
1. Sure
2. Mixed. Even with the available protection, there's definitely a player type that the heuristic "If the mafia haven't shot you by DayX, you're mafia" applies to. AND you've already said that you'd consider anybody that gets Ascetic to fall into that as well. Also, if you truly think "Scum are the ones that would push multi-night plans", I'm not sure why you keep pushing your cards to the middle of the table here, before everybody has even checked in. You can think I'm trying to have it both ways because I /am/. Strategic ambiguity is good here, letting both options seem viable in early discussions is good here.
3. No. If its GOOD that scum have to try to avoid protection like you said in your previous point, then its BAD if they know who has what, because its easier to avoid protection. I am NOT advocating for swinging the lynch off somebody just because they claimed doctor. I AM saying that fewer actual lynches will result in fewer claims. Weighting this as less important than having an additional flip before committing to lynch #3 is fine, weighting this 0 is not.
4. My only experience here so far has been Off the Grid mafia. Let's just say that it wasn't the shining pinnacle of activity that I would have hoped for. If you say that this playerlist is going to be better about that, I'll take you on your word. Until then, I'll be a bit dubious. And when I say, separation between wagons, I mean, I would be very disappointed if our second lynch today was just the counterwagon for the first lynch. If you're promising actual reconsideration, I'd ideally like to see 4 separate real wagons (3 would also be fine). First lynch and a legit counterwagon, second lynch on somebody completely different AND a counterwagon on somebody else completely different. That's how I try to play Day2, and I'm sincerely worried that doing Day2 on Day1 will result in that not happening.
I fully understand the difference between this setup and WH. But we're not arguing between the difference between no hard information and lots of hard information. We're currently arguing about the difference between 1 lynch w/flip + wagon information + night actions, vs 2 lynches w/flips + wagon information + night actions. I'm saying that 2 lynches has diminishing returns on wagon information and could affect night actions in a bad way, you're saying that you won't let there be diminishing returns on wagon information, night actions are irrelevant, and an additional flip worth of information outweighs everything else.
I haven't read much yet so will come back to soon to add more detailed comments, but I think we should aim to lynch just one person today. There's a lot of information to gain from lynching two people day one, but I think the risk of lynching two town would be too great to chance. It'd be different if we mass claimed, but there's no reason to do that just yet. I do somewhat support a mass claim D2, maybe D3.
What's the difference in risk between lynching two town on Day1, and lynching 1 town on Day1 and 1 town as our first lynch on Day2.
Do you think the game should even go to Day3?
What kind of order should the massclaim you support go in?
If you had to sort the players in the game into two groups based on the most important thing that's happened so far, what defining characteristic would you use to sort them? Give the groupings. How many scum are in each group? Is that because of independent reads, or because of the nature of each group?
I am just going to clarify since I didn't think it would be an issue, but an ascetic blocks any non-killing abilities. The flavor a PR will get will be "Your ability has failed to target player X".
What's the difference in risk between lynching two town on Day1, and lynching 1 town on Day1 and 1 town as our first lynch on Day2.
I guess there's not a lot? I was just imagining that if we lynched two town, one more is killed at night, then a mislynch the next day would put us at -4 town.
Do you think the game should even go to Day3?
I think this is rhetorical, but if not, I don't really care what day we go to if the end result is the same.
What kind of order should the massclaim you support go in?
To be totally honest, I have no idea, lol. I'm also not pushing nor putting behind any effort towards a mass claim, as I said, I think it's absolutely unnecessary right now.
If you had to sort the players in the game into two groups based on the most important thing that's happened so far, what defining characteristic would you use to sort them? Give the groupings. How many scum are in each group? Is that because of independent reads, or because of the nature of each group?
I wouldn't sort them into two groups, I'd just analyze their behaviours and motivations, try to read the posts from a town mindset, from a scum mindset, etc. But if I had to answer your question, I'd probably group it based on how people want the days to go forth. I feel like rushing for a massclaim is inherently scummy, and that wanting multiple town day one also is scummy (also, importantly, we're more likely to lose our PRs before they can do anything if we do mislynch a lot at first).
To clarify, I've barely read at this point, as I just got home from a super long school day and spent the first ~8 hours studying for the exam I had lol. I'm getting onto reading now.
If we mislynch one person on day 1, then we enter day 2 with probably 6 people alive, meaning we can lynch one person whose flip we won't know and then maybe another if we lynch scum. That scenario sucks and is not one that I like at all. Lynching at least one scum on Day 1 makes all of our power roles more effective and takes away the scum's ability to fake claim, and it's completely reasonable if everyone pulls their weight. Massclaiming Day 2 makes sense but we really want to take the emphasis on power roles on this game style; if they can **** over scum, great, but we should be assuming that they don't.
Ascetic cannot be targeted by any role; it reflexively roleblocks anyone that targets it.
So if a doctor protects an ascetic that is also shot by the mafia, the ascetic dies.
If a watcher watches an ascetic that is shot by the mafia, the watcher sees nothing.
If a tracker tracks an ascetic that kills someone, the tracker sees nothing.
Make sense?
I also find myself coming over to Grimclaw's side that the Ascetic role shouldn't claim.
Why do you think Ascetic should claim?
How would you respond to a situation in which a role needs to prove themselves, but claims they targetted the ascetic? Stall another day for them to try again? I'm sure there are other, better examples, but essentially: why would we want the Ascetic to be alive?
@mallorean: Do you mind if I shorten my @'s to you to "@mallo"? Anyway: So, with your slow-roll, what did you find out? Because it sounded like - and I could be misremembering this, and can't be arsed to scroll up at the moment - you had something specific in mind that you were going to be looking for, but now you're saying that wasn't the case. Are you satisfied with the results of your approach?
As for how I feel about the procession of lynches: While I'd love to have 2 lynches on Day 1, I don't think it's reasonable to necessarily expect everyone to be willing to jump on board with a particular lynch in a predetermined timeframe. Rather, I expect 2 lynches on Day 2 with interactions on flipped bodies to analyze will be far more feasible. I have some theories about the second lynch for toDay if it comes up, but if I survive the Night I'll share on Day 2.
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@Nacho: So uh, can you clear that up for me?
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@Ghosting: Will you be scumhunting at all in this game?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If we manage to lynch 2 town toDay and the Nightkill is successful, we need to pause and review the game, because then we'll be in a 3-2 scenario.
I think in that case, we would need to lynch once on Day 2. If we don't instantly lose, we hit scum - but if we lynch two, we run the risk of losing overNight, and the extra Day/Night of information would be a boon to the town in said endgame scenario.
I think that's the correct procedure in that situation.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Dota is on holiday, but KJ will be prodded. Due to the fast nature of this game, I have a higher expectation for activity due to the fast level of play in this set-up.
@Iso/Grimclaw: I plan to read the game and scumhunt, don't worry. Expect my usual. I was just prodded and wanted everyone to know I'm going to be here and now just MIA out of nowhere. I just woke up but did some catch up last night, finishing it now, then will post some better thoughts.
I was personally thinking we should no lynch after like a week or so, then lynch 2 D2. This will give the investigatives time to maybe get something useful, while optimizing how much information we get to analyze in the thread.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
In this exciting 8 player mafia game, there are 2 scum and 6 town. The roles that any player could have rolled are Doctor, Bodyguard, Tracker, Watcher, Ascetic, or 3 vanilla roles. The following rules are common knowledge due to the open set up:
1). The above roles could be on either side.
2). The deadline is two weeks. Until the deadline reaches an end, any number of lynches may occur. The day can end prematurely by a majority vote of "no-lynch".
3). Upon a player being lynched, that player's role pm will not be revealed,.
4). At the end of the day, all players who were lynched will have their role pm revealed.
5). Mafia will have day chat.
6). The mafia factional kill may be used with any ability they may or may not have gained.
Still in the Light 4/8
1. Killjoy
2. Grimclaw
4. DoTArchon
5. Nachomamma8
6. Ghosting
7. Iso
8. mallorean_thug
Descended into Darkness
Lynched Day 1
Rhand, Town Vanilla
not_a_gimmick, Mafia Bodyguard
Killed Night 1
Iso, Town Watcher
Ghosting, Town Tracker (modkilled)
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Can we post normally during pregame?
Will votes made during pregame count?
So, it seems like the best way to use this setup (at least as best I can tell) is to lynch one or two players every Day. Any more than that and I get uncomfortable without some colors in the OP.
Opening thoughts about the setup:
I think the Doctor, Ascetic, and Tracker should claim, possibly also the Watcher, and they should have lynch immunity for Day 1.
On Night 1, the Watcher targets the Doctor, the Doctor targets the Tracker, and the Tracker runs loose. We lynch on behavior and reconvene later on, and don't waste our investigations or protections on the Ascetic.
Any input on this? At the very least, the Ascetic should claim on Day 1 as they are effectively a Miller, here.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
A) Lynch 1 Day1, Lynch 1 Day2, Lynch 2 Day3
Allowable mislynches: 2 (but the second only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
B) Lynch 1 Day1, Lynch 2 Day2, Lynch 1 Day3
Allowable mislynches: 2
C) Lynch 1 Day1, Lynch 4 Day2
Allowable mislynches: 3 (but the third only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
D) Lynch 2 Day1, Lynch 1 Day2, Lynch 1 Day3
Allowable mislynches: 2
E) Lynch 2 Day1, Lynch 3 Day2
Allowable mislynches: 3 (but the third only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
F) Lynch 3 Day1, Lynch 2 Day2
Allowable mislynches: 3 (but the third only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
G) Lynch 4 Day1, Lynch 1 Day2
Allowable mislynches: 3
H) Lynch 6 Day1
Allowable mislynches: 4 (but the fourth only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
So, we have a tradeoff to make between having more mislynches to play with vs having more information from night actions by deciding whether 4, 5, or 6 of the possible kills this game are directed by the thread.
Additionally, we can decide which lynches we want to maximize flip information on. Compare E) and F) assuming we've lynched twice and we're considering the same player for our 3rd lynch in both scenarios. In E), we'd have more information before actually making that 3rd lynch (#1 & #2's flips + everybody's Night actions). In F) we'd have less information for that lynch, but /more/ information for lynches #4 and #5, because we'd also have #3's flip (though the utility of this could be less than that because of losing the night action from #3's possible role)
So, as an open question to the thread, which of these lynch scenarios should we pursue? (I have an opinion on this, but I'll be withholding my answer until more of the thread has checked in)
Doctor and Tracker should both claim if they're facing a lynch (and we'll consider moving the lynch elsewhere at that point), but they should absolutely /NOT/ claim right away. Giving people lynch immunity from the start of the day1 absolutely wreck's town's ability to do votal analysis later.
Besides that, I think your plan is exceptionally bad if we only plan on having 2 day phases instead of 3. You're basically making the watcher unable to catch fakeclaims and/or the nk, AND the doctor unable to bounce a kill in order to get a guaranteed Tracker result and more power roles alive going into Night 2. Even if we do have a Night 2, it also loses a lot of value in worlds where any of doc/tracker/watcher are scum because you're giving the doc and watcher safe things to trueclaim and a built in explanation why they didn't catch anybody/bounce a kill, and getting a guaranteed tracker result doesn't do much if the tracker is scum and doesn't have to worry about getting caught out by the Watcher or Ascetic.
As far as an Ascetic claim goes, I do think that the upside of not wasting our tracks/docs on him probably outweighs telling the scumteam which player won't be getting protected toNight and him being able to catch certain varieties of fakeclaims. But he still should /NOT/ claim right now, again because it ruins votal stuff for the entire day. If we decide the Ascetic should claim, they should do so at the last possible moment before Night.
Same here
No claims, no lynch Day 1.
Day 2 we massclaim in order: vanilla's - ascetic - bodyguard - doc - tracker - watcher.
We lynch a vanilla or ascetic. Watcher watches doc, doc protects tracker, bodyguard protects watcher/doc (wifoms between them)
Day 3 we masslynch.
@Mall: why not consider no lynch Day 1?
@Iso: why not include the bodyguard in your plan? Why call the ascetic miller? Sounds like you know his alignment.
We will need to utilize multiple lynches (at least 2 on D1) in order to keep town controlled kills vs mafia controlled kills to a minimum.
I would only lynch twice for Day 1 in order to give us a chance to see flips and see where we stand after our initial push; no town power roles claim, everyone just tries to screw over mafia in the one night we will have, and then we masslynch until we win or lose.
Publicly directing the PRs is weak when there will likely only be one night to deal with PRs; scum's real aim during that single night will be to not get screwed over, and that's far easier to do when everyone is publicly directed.
I don't understand the benefit in Rhand's plan - mafia get a free kill, tracker has abysmal chances of randomly catching a killer and watcher catches a killer with slightly higher odds but only if mafia pick an obvious target whereas bodyguard and doctor blocking a kill gain us absolutely nothing. Then, we avoid scumhunting in the better roles, give scum another free nightkill where all they have to fear is the tracker, and then play from there - reliance on randomly assigned PRs means that we're basically at the mercy of RNG for scum getting bad roles and town getting good roles unless I'm missing something in your plan somewhere.
Which is why I prefer 2 Nights of full action.
With all PR's having to claim actions twice, we can catch them in lies.
We have our requirements. Game on! With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is July 18th.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
We can just lynch those.
If they don't lie, they might have to clear townies.
But maybe I need to think the kind of wifom this will generate through more. I might be naive about the info this all nets us.
Anyways, if we do lynch toDay, then I believe having the ascetic claim and lynching him is optimal.
If he's scum he won't claim and hide among the vanilla's, which is easy to test.
If scum vanilla claims PR, he'll automatically be counterclaimed toMorrow when we massclaim, netting us a free scum lynch.
Short answer:
Because its really bad.
Long answer:
Given the fact that GJ is the gamehost, I considered it and considered including no-lynch scenarios in my list. But, no-lynching in a setup that doesn't include guaranteed strong town info roles doesn't do much, especially when scum can just generally true-claim. And it completely blanks Day1 for votal analysis.
Scum don't need to lie in this setup, and them telling the truth doesn't really clear anybody.
No one (not even an RVS singlet)
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Don't waste your time.....
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Killjoy
Grimclaw
Rhand
DoTArchon
Nachomamma8
Ghosting
Iso
mallorean_thug (1) - Grimclaw
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is July 17th 11:59pm.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I don't see a world where having wagon analysis is strictly worse than potentially having no information from a Night and losing PRs. I find it extremely hard to believe that you actually think this is a good plan.
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Thinking further on it, I think only the Ascetic should claim toDay without being run up; if they're scummy, we lynch them, which is simple enough. The benefits outweigh the negatives, here; if the Ascetic is scum, they already know who the Ascetic is. If the Ascetic is town, that means that the scum only have one less slot to PR hunt for. In the extremely unfortunate circumstance of both scum being power roles, we have our work cut out for us - but I like the idea that if someone is scummy enough and claims a role, we have 0 reason NOT to lynch them because we know they can be scum. This setup flips the idea that PRs shouldn't be lynched on its head, which is something I'm always pushing in light of how many falseclaims we see on a regular basis.
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As for how we should lynch: I forgot for a moment that there were 8 players and for some reason thought there were 6 and was going to say that we absolutely need to lynch 2 toDay, but then I scrolled up to the OP to double-check and that's not the case!
That said, I do kind of like the idea of lynching two people on Day 1; it's kind of like having a DayVig shot but with the benefit of an extra wagon to analyze!
After that, I think we have to see what our flips are before I can determine what the best course of lynch action would be.
Let's try to figure out who the two best wagons are for toDay and go from there. So far, I'm not terribly with the idea of Rhand or Grimclaw being town.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
There's absolutely no reason for docs or bodyguards to lie; if they are scum, they target someone different for the nightkill. The only way we can possibly get useful information is if the tracker or the watcher see something, but the chances of them doing that successfully fly down to zero if scum have watcher or tracker.
Again, scum don't need to lie. Scum telling the truth does not clear townies, it just means they are telling the truth.
The problem is not WIFOM; the problem is that when scum has public roles like this is that they can use them and claim them honestly and leave us completely in the dark, which likely leaves us in a near vanilla setup where we have 2 possible mislynches before we lose instead of the usual three. This is not optimal.
Having the ascetic claim so they can be auto-lynched is nonsensical; sacrificing lynches when we're behind on numbers to begin with in order to make info that probably won't be useful less likely to be messed with is not a good strategy. The point is that we have the potential for more lynches than we would have in a regular game, and in the one night that we will have, we will have a lot of opportunities to gain info or gain an extra lynch if a kill is blocked.
No, they won't; scum PR in less danger can lend them their PR to claim.
The Watcher is stictly superior to the doctor since if they target the nightkill, they can out the scum who targeted them.
The Tracker can confirm players as scum or town once one scum has died, has the possibility to catch out scum before then.
Bodyguard can guarantee either the Watcher or Tracker survives to get an investigative result.
The only powerrole that does absolutely nothing is the Ascetic, who only functions as an easy kill from Mafia and who can interfere with watcher/tracker results.
Your concern seems to be that the Ascetic will be killed by the mafia, but that's a great thing for us; the ascetic getting shot means that the doctor, watcher, tracker, and bodyguard aren't getting shot.
----
@Iso: Do you think that Rhand's goal here is to sell us an utterly terrible plan and then just sort of hope that every buys it and doesn't see the obvious flaws in it? I don't.
<.<
There's only 5 people around so far so somebody confirmed without posting in the thread. Which would be Killjoy, Ghosting, or
Day1 Vote DoTArchon
Must be busy in scumchat, huh?
Sure.
There's a difference between "Scum don't need to lie, so a plan whose primary benefit is catching scum lying is bad" and "Scum won't ever lie, so we don't need to hedge against them lying". Also, while my current valuation for this setup is "Scum probably shouldn't lie outside of a couple specific gambits", I'm not naive enough to think that everybody else in this game, most of whom I haven't played with and all of whom come from a completely different meta than what I'm used to, will have the same valuation I do. Scum could disagree with me on this, scum could have the roles for "a couple specific gambits", or scum could just be bad at open setups without set alignments for roles.
On a related note:
This is actually part of why I'd like our plan to be an option select between B) and C).
Had you thought about this issue when you said that you were going to /barn Nacho on 2 lynches Day1 being best?
Yes. The game immediately ends in both mafia members are killed, or if the mafia ever equal the living town players (so 2-2 or 1-1) since they can force a standstill with the town.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
If we lynch scum before we go to night, then we will have the luxury of lynching both of them and will win the game as a result. The chances of this happening go up if we lynch twice D1 instead of once.
If we don't lynch scum before we go to night, then it still boils down to a 50-50; and, if we make the correct call in 5p LyLo after mislynching twice, then we'll end up with 4 players: 1 mafia, 1 close to confirmed town, and two lynches to find them, which is still pretty sweet odds. If we fail to lynch scum in our first two D1 chances and we fail to lynch scum in the 50-50 call during LyLo, then I think that the loss we'd get there would be pretty deserved, don't you?
I hope that my above paragraph did a little towards showing how investigative roles can be useful; if I didn't address your concerns in full let me know and I'll approach it from a different angle if possible.
I really, really think that it's important to be working with as much information as possible before we have a chance of losing; in the case of B, if we mislynch once, we have no information until the game is over, which is incredibly brutal. In the case of C, we don't know if we're about to win or about to lose and I think that's sucks a lot.
I know that my argument right now is choppy and sloppy because it's being typed up in a rush before I leave out the door, but I really think that it's important that town knows exactly where they stand after that first night and lynching twice during D1 gives us exactly that. If we mislynch twice, there will probably be 5 alive, meaning that every townie knows that if they have more than 2 townreads they're reading the game wrong and if we manage to hit scum, then everyone knows that we're in a pretty good position and only looking for one scum player.
Rhand's a good player but his scum game is a little sloppy, these days. It absolutely would not surprise me if this were exactly what was happening.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Don't get me wrong, option E) is easily the third best option from my initial list (and 4 of the other options are completely unacceptable), and I'd be fine going with it.
I'd just prefer to only do one lynch toDay because:
1. If we have duplicate claims during massclaim, I'd like the option of lynching both. Not necessarily because that's what we'd do, but because the threat of doing so makes scum gambits far less likely and strengthens town power roles.
2. The scumteam knows the setup. We don't. They know if its better for their role and player distribution to have 2 days or 3 days. I think it would better for town to maintain strategic ambiguity on that point until after the massclaim on Day2. And I think that the average strength of plans B) and C) is better than D) and E), mostly because I think option D) is much weaker than the other 3.
3. The more wagons we run up today, the more claims we're going to run into. This is part of the playing the game, but keeping roles on the down low as much as possible is in our interest toDay.
4. I don't think that there's going to be much separation between our two wagons today if we go for lynching two. People just aren't going to care enough on Day1 to reconsider or draw new lines. While I think that Day2, we won't have as much of that problem because we'll either have a pile of lynches to find the scumbuddy and we won't need to do much reconsidering. -OR- we'll need to the second lynch that day like we're in LYLO, which usually does a great job of focusing people's minds.
As far as your concern, not knowing if we're in LYLO or not, that just isn't as much of a concern for me. The other sites I usually play on play -Hunt setups with no flips. I'm used to not knowing if I'm in LYLO or not, and having to plan for multiple possible worlds. Its very very doable, AND it gives you another strong tell to look for (scum know whether you're in LYLO or not, and obviously will be voting very differently if you are).
MY only concern is that I'm not sure we'll actually be up for the logistics of lynching 4 people in a single phase. That's roughly equivilent to 72 hour phases if we spread them out, which I can do, but idk about the rest of the playerlist. If the group really doesn't think that we could actually follow through on a 4 lynch day phase, I'd be fine going with the more conservative and lower payoff option E). Going for the high damage combo doesn't really matter if you drop it half way through.
I haven't read much yet so will come back to soon to add more detailed comments, but I think we should aim to lynch just one person today. There's a lot of information to gain from lynching two people day one, but I think the risk of lynching two town would be too great to chance. It'd be different if we mass claimed, but there's no reason to do that just yet. I do somewhat support a mass claim D2, maybe D3.
How does the ascetic role work in this game? I'm seeing a couple of different things online.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I agree that Rhand has a sloppy scum game from time to time, but I find that the sloppiness is bad reads and complete lack of engagement as opposed to a misplaced sense of superiority. Do you disagree or am I reading the situation wrong somewhere?
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@Ghosting: In my experience, Ascetics nullify non-killing roles that target them.
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@Nacho: I'm not sure I understand where your interpretation of the situation is coming from.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Is that always anti-town then? It seems like if any town PRs targetted them, they become useless, which seems anti-town to me.
If my assumptions are correct, and the Ascetic is willing to claim, I don't see how that doesn't benefit us. But again, I may be totally wrong as I didn't even know what ascetic was until just now lol.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
1. It's a nice option to have, sure, but I don't think it's an option that offers us significant advantage. Mafia can only fake a guilty if they have either the Watcher or the Tracker roles and they don't get lynched D1, and typically, claim situations like this end up in obvious alignments based on offense or lack of defense.
2. Regardless of scumteam distribution, scum having as many nights as possible is only to their advantage; if I rolled scum in this game, I would likely push a multi-night plan because it would increase the chances of me being able to take out people who are threats in day play. If scum only get one night to shoot and they have multiple guards against shooting people, then they won't be able to shoot who they want without getting ****ed over.
3. Don't care about roles; town can have them, mafia can have them. Claims won't be able to save people today, scummy people get lynched regardless of their role claim.
4. I disagree completely with this point; why do you think that it's in the case? I plan on playing hard and fast, and I plan and having influence while I do so. If Iso is scum, I have a little bit of vengeance that I've been seeking, and if I'm town, I'm sure he will play as hard as fast as I will. We are not in a large enough game where there's an excuse for apathy or laziness in these first couple of lynches, and leading by example is typically a pretty effective strategy and I promise I'll be a good role model for all the lurking girls and boys.
Witchhunt is a much, much different world than this game is. In Witch Hunt, you have a Priest who has hard information and an Acolyte who has hard information and oracles and etc etc that compensate for the lack of flips; in this game type, we have a watcher and a tracker for our investigative roles that could end up accomplishing absolutely nothing. Working with no flips in this game means working with no hard information and believe me when I say that is not something that we want at all.
Your concern on the 4 lynch day phase is noted, but again, I don't forsee it becoming a problem. If the town is active and engaged, we will win this game. If it isn't (which is the only reason we wouldn't be able to swing the 4 lynch day phase), then we're probably losing and a more conservative lynch plan won't be able to compensate for it.
If we mislynch one person on day 1, then we enter day 2 with probably 6 people alive, meaning we can lynch one person whose flip we won't know and then maybe another if we lynch scum. That scenario sucks and is not one that I like at all. Lynching at least one scum on Day 1 makes all of our power roles more effective and takes away the scum's ability to fake claim, and it's completely reasonable if everyone pulls their weight. Massclaiming Day 2 makes sense but we really want to take the emphasis on power roles on this game style; if they can **** over scum, great, but we should be assuming that they don't.
Ascetic cannot be targeted by any role; it reflexively roleblocks anyone that targets it.
So if a doctor protects an ascetic that is also shot by the mafia, the ascetic dies.
If a watcher watches an ascetic that is shot by the mafia, the watcher sees nothing.
If a tracker tracks an ascetic that kills someone, the tracker sees nothing.
Make sense?
I also find myself coming over to Grimclaw's side that the Ascetic role shouldn't claim.
Literally anything? Not triple posting in the first 5 post of the thread? Not starting the conversation I'm having with Nacho right now until everybody had showed up and posted at least once (oops, that one didn't happen)?
If we are lynching two people today, how should we budget our time? Should we set a soft deadline for ourselves to lynch one player by next monday, and then spend the second week on our second lynch? Or should we spend the full two weeks discussing before lynching both targets back to back before deadline? Something in between?
1. Sure
2. Mixed. Even with the available protection, there's definitely a player type that the heuristic "If the mafia haven't shot you by DayX, you're mafia" applies to. AND you've already said that you'd consider anybody that gets Ascetic to fall into that as well. Also, if you truly think "Scum are the ones that would push multi-night plans", I'm not sure why you keep pushing your cards to the middle of the table here, before everybody has even checked in. You can think I'm trying to have it both ways because I /am/. Strategic ambiguity is good here, letting both options seem viable in early discussions is good here.
3. No. If its GOOD that scum have to try to avoid protection like you said in your previous point, then its BAD if they know who has what, because its easier to avoid protection. I am NOT advocating for swinging the lynch off somebody just because they claimed doctor. I AM saying that fewer actual lynches will result in fewer claims. Weighting this as less important than having an additional flip before committing to lynch #3 is fine, weighting this 0 is not.
4. My only experience here so far has been Off the Grid mafia. Let's just say that it wasn't the shining pinnacle of activity that I would have hoped for. If you say that this playerlist is going to be better about that, I'll take you on your word. Until then, I'll be a bit dubious. And when I say, separation between wagons, I mean, I would be very disappointed if our second lynch today was just the counterwagon for the first lynch. If you're promising actual reconsideration, I'd ideally like to see 4 separate real wagons (3 would also be fine). First lynch and a legit counterwagon, second lynch on somebody completely different AND a counterwagon on somebody else completely different. That's how I try to play Day2, and I'm sincerely worried that doing Day2 on Day1 will result in that not happening.
I fully understand the difference between this setup and WH. But we're not arguing between the difference between no hard information and lots of hard information. We're currently arguing about the difference between 1 lynch w/flip + wagon information + night actions, vs 2 lynches w/flips + wagon information + night actions. I'm saying that 2 lynches has diminishing returns on wagon information and could affect night actions in a bad way, you're saying that you won't let there be diminishing returns on wagon information, night actions are irrelevant, and an additional flip worth of information outweighs everything else.
Day1 Vote Ghosting
Here's some detailed comments for you to add:
What's the difference in risk between lynching two town on Day1, and lynching 1 town on Day1 and 1 town as our first lynch on Day2.
Do you think the game should even go to Day3?
What kind of order should the massclaim you support go in?
If you had to sort the players in the game into two groups based on the most important thing that's happened so far, what defining characteristic would you use to sort them? Give the groupings. How many scum are in each group? Is that because of independent reads, or because of the nature of each group?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I guess there's not a lot? I was just imagining that if we lynched two town, one more is killed at night, then a mislynch the next day would put us at -4 town.
I think this is rhetorical, but if not, I don't really care what day we go to if the end result is the same.
To be totally honest, I have no idea, lol. I'm also not pushing nor putting behind any effort towards a mass claim, as I said, I think it's absolutely unnecessary right now.
I wouldn't sort them into two groups, I'd just analyze their behaviours and motivations, try to read the posts from a town mindset, from a scum mindset, etc. But if I had to answer your question, I'd probably group it based on how people want the days to go forth. I feel like rushing for a massclaim is inherently scummy, and that wanting multiple town day one also is scummy (also, importantly, we're more likely to lose our PRs before they can do anything if we do mislynch a lot at first).
To clarify, I've barely read at this point, as I just got home from a super long school day and spent the first ~8 hours studying for the exam I had lol. I'm getting onto reading now.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Why do you think Ascetic should claim?
How would you respond to a situation in which a role needs to prove themselves, but claims they targetted the ascetic? Stall another day for them to try again? I'm sure there are other, better examples, but essentially: why would we want the Ascetic to be alive?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I wished you guys would trust me on the claim + lynch ascetic plan. It's really good.
My new cruise starts today. I probably won't be able to react to stuff before the late evening (Europe time).
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@mallorean: Do you mind if I shorten my @'s to you to "@mallo"? Anyway: So, with your slow-roll, what did you find out? Because it sounded like - and I could be misremembering this, and can't be arsed to scroll up at the moment - you had something specific in mind that you were going to be looking for, but now you're saying that wasn't the case. Are you satisfied with the results of your approach?
As for how I feel about the procession of lynches: While I'd love to have 2 lynches on Day 1, I don't think it's reasonable to necessarily expect everyone to be willing to jump on board with a particular lynch in a predetermined timeframe. Rather, I expect 2 lynches on Day 2 with interactions on flipped bodies to analyze will be far more feasible. I have some theories about the second lynch for toDay if it comes up, but if I survive the Night I'll share on Day 2.
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@Nacho: So uh, can you clear that up for me?
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@Ghosting: Will you be scumhunting at all in this game?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If we manage to lynch 2 town toDay and the Nightkill is successful, we need to pause and review the game, because then we'll be in a 3-2 scenario.
I think in that case, we would need to lynch once on Day 2. If we don't instantly lose, we hit scum - but if we lynch two, we run the risk of losing overNight, and the extra Day/Night of information would be a boon to the town in said endgame scenario.
I think that's the correct procedure in that situation.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I was personally thinking we should no lynch after like a week or so, then lynch 2 D2. This will give the investigatives time to maybe get something useful, while optimizing how much information we get to analyze in the thread.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
But that's my idea for how to proceed.