2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
We are already at psuedo Mylo. If we mislynch a non-mason townie, then scum has a 2/3 chance of NK'ing a mason. If scum hits one, both die and day 2 is 1 vs 1 scum wins.
Going straight to night with no lynch gives scum a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the bomb and town winning. These's a 50% chance he hits a mason then it's 2 vs 1 tomorrow, if hits the vanilla townie then it's 3 vs 1 and a harder POE for town.
I propose we lynch a mason, wait hear me out.
This means scum has a 1 in 3 chance of losing during the night, and there's a 2 in 3 chance we end up at 2 vs 1, a better place to be for POE.
It doesn't matter which mason we lynch but it's important we don't out the other.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
Then day 2 it's a 50/50 shot for the remaining townies to lynch right or vote no lynch put the 50%/50% choice on scum during the night.
This means scums chance of winning is the chance of missing the bomb night 1 and the chance town get it right or his chance of missing the bomb night 2
It's 2/3 * 1/2 = 2/6 = 1/3
With this plan scum only has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
lol @ jd, I was literally thinking the same thing when I saw the setup. Lynching a Mason takes away the scum's only strength (getting two NKs for the price of one) and the Bomb is still around to potentially win it for town.
My only issue is in final three, if town mislynches and the last two players are scum and the Bomb, is that a tie? Or is it a scum win since they've technically reached parity?
I think the plan is ok, but no lynching might be better.
If we no lynch, we go to 2 vs 1 if scum hits masons, which is the same idea.
If he hits vanilla, we go to 3 vs 1 and no lynch again.
This way we may have 2 chances of the bomb triggering.
@mod: if we end up in a no lynch - no kill loop, who gets forced to act first?
My method has two chances of the bomb triggering also, if the mafia kills the bomb the second night it'll leave the non-bomb townie that survived N1 (second mason or vanilla) as the sole survivor, i.e town wins.
No lynching is simply worse.
You reduce the chance of the best case scenario to 1/4 for town. So the chance of scum surviving day 1 is 3/4
In the 3 vs 1 scenario (vanilla is NK), the masons confirm each other, the mafia and the bomb vote each other and it's up to the mason to choose between them in the it's still 50%/50% for town day 2. Going no lynch in this scenario is bad as the scum only has a 1/3 chance of hitting the bomb.
I covered the 50%/50% shot for the 2 vs 1 scenario already
50% / 50% is the best day 2 town can get.
So no lynching instead of lynching a mason results in a decreased chance of the mafia losing night 1 with no improvement for day 2, it's a bad plan.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
My only issue is in final three, if town mislynches and the last two players are scum and the Bomb, is that a tie? Or is it a scum win since they've technically reached parity?
Actually reconsidered this and scum must win in this scenario otherwise the only way they could win would be to generate a mislynch on the bomb.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
My method has two chances of the bomb triggering also, if the mafia kills the bomb the second night it'll leave the non-bomb townie that survived N1 (second mason or vanilla) as the sole survivor, i.e town wins.
No lynching is simply worse.
You reduce the chance of the best case scenario to 1/4 for town. So the chance of scum surviving day 1 is 3/4
In the 3 vs 1 scenario (vanilla is NK), the masons confirm each other, the mafia and the bomb vote each other and it's up to the mason to choose between them in the it's still 50%/50% for town day 2. Going no lynch in this scenario is bad as the scum only has a 1/3 chance of hitting the bomb.
I covered the 50%/50% shot for the 2 vs 1 scenario already
50% / 50% is the best day 2 town can get.
So no lynching instead of lynching a mason results in a decreased chance of the mafia losing night 1 with no improvement for day 2, it's a bad plan.
But what Rhand was saying was that you no lynch a second time and the bomb could go off again.
It takes the power completely out of our hands and puts it in the scum's, basically they have to kill themselves or get "lucky" both nights.
Unless the first night they hit the masons, and then it is at the 2 vs 1 point.
I think I am more inclined towards Rhand's idea at this point.
@Vaimes: I think the way the scum wincon normally is drawn up would mean that scum wins in that scenario. But let's see what IsoMod says.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
My method has two chances of the bomb triggering also, if the mafia kills the bomb the second night it'll leave the non-bomb townie that survived N1 (second mason or vanilla) as the sole survivor, i.e town wins.
No lynching is simply worse.
You reduce the chance of the best case scenario to 1/4 for town. So the chance of scum surviving day 1 is 3/4
In the 3 vs 1 scenario (vanilla is NK), the masons confirm each other, the mafia and the bomb vote each other and it's up to the mason to choose between them in the it's still 50%/50% for town day 2. Going no lynch in this scenario is bad as the scum only has a 1/3 chance of hitting the bomb.
I covered the 50%/50% shot for the 2 vs 1 scenario already
50% / 50% is the best day 2 town can get.
So no lynching instead of lynching a mason results in a decreased chance of the mafia losing night 1 with no improvement for day 2, it's a bad plan.
But what Rhand was saying was that you no lynch a second time and the bomb could go off again.
It takes the power completely out of our hands and puts it in the scum's, basically they have to kill themselves or get "lucky" both nights.
Unless the first night they hit the masons, and then it is at the 2 vs 1 point.
I think I am more inclined towards Rhand's idea at this point.
@Vaimes: I think the way the scum wincon normally is drawn up would mean that scum wins in that scenario. But let's see what IsoMod says.
You can no lynch a second time in my plan also and then scum has a 50%/50% shot night 2 of hitting the bomb.
By not lynching a mason you simply increase the chance scum survives night 1 with no improvement day/night 2.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
No we can't, if scum doesn't hit the bomb in those two NK's. Then he has hit the vanilla and the masons. It's Bomb vs mafia day 3 which means mafia wins.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
Oh you're right. Meh. It seems like a shame to give up our confirmed townies.
But I guess it's the best plan.
Let's hear from GJ and get a mason to out himself.
Reminder: we only need 1 mason to out. The other please don't speak up.
No we can't, if scum doesn't hit the bomb in those two NK's. Then he has hit the vanilla and the masons. It's Bomb vs mafia day 3 which means mafia wins.
Yup you're right...
It does appear to be the winner.
@vaimes
Are you comfortable with this plan since you were thinking this way too?
Have u not thought zhat through?
What does it do to our win chances? (ignore the no lynch option there. Scum might choose for the draw-loop and that's not what we want)
The reason I asked is because I have thought of many different ways to play the game, but none I can find where the correct mafia counterplay beats us.
I do have a plan, but it does have a risk. The vanilla claims immediately, we see if there is a counterclaim, and then no lynch. The mafia could cc here, but what is much more likely is they stay silent, we no lynch, go to night 1, and that changes the nk chance for hitting the bomb from 25%-33.3% (although the chance for hitting a mason also goes up, but in this case, it isn't lethal).
If the mafia chooses to no kill night 1, then I have an update to the plan. But I need to keep that silent, just to make sure there is no effort to counter play this. It also requires a ton of trust to be put into me. What do you think of that?
Because then the next day turns into a 50-50 for the mafia player to lose. If they go for mason grouping, they chance losing, but also get the most flexibility with being able to counterclaim vanilla or bomb.
In your scenario we rely solely on the vanilla to solve the game. Scum is going to have to counterclaim bomb.
It surprises me that this game has so many viable tactics.
JD: use your calculation skills on this one pls?
I don't really want to do the math anymore, I realized that probably leads to presenting the best play to scum.
I will say that I have done the math and that both plans give exactly a 50/50 shot of town winning if scum takes the right choice for each scenario, I don't want to detail what that is.
It surprises me how balanced this game is.
Either plan looks good to me.
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Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
t om
05-24-2016
03:31 AM ET (US)
EDIT
DELETE
thinking about it more, johnny might be gambitting.
if hes mafia, he has to no kill to avoid hitting the vanilla.
if hes the bomb, that might have been brilliant.
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1. jdisawesomesauce
2. Huntzilla
3. Rhand
4. Vaimes
5. Gentleman Johnny
R:
1. tomsloger
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I never get that
Who has a solid plan for victory? GJ? Rhand?
Going straight to night with no lynch gives scum a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the bomb and town winning. These's a 50% chance he hits a mason then it's 2 vs 1 tomorrow, if hits the vanilla townie then it's 3 vs 1 and a harder POE for town.
I propose we lynch a mason, wait hear me out.
This means scum has a 1 in 3 chance of losing during the night, and there's a 2 in 3 chance we end up at 2 vs 1, a better place to be for POE.
It doesn't matter which mason we lynch but it's important we don't out the other.
This means scums chance of winning is the chance of missing the bomb night 1 and the chance town get it right or his chance of missing the bomb night 2
It's 2/3 * 1/2 = 2/6 = 1/3
With this plan scum only has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
My only issue is in final three, if town mislynches and the last two players are scum and the Bomb, is that a tie? Or is it a scum win since they've technically reached parity?
If we no lynch, we go to 2 vs 1 if scum hits masons, which is the same idea.
If he hits vanilla, we go to 3 vs 1 and no lynch again.
This way we may have 2 chances of the bomb triggering.
@mod: if we end up in a no lynch - no kill loop, who gets forced to act first?
No lynching is simply worse.
You reduce the chance of the best case scenario to 1/4 for town. So the chance of scum surviving day 1 is 3/4
In the 3 vs 1 scenario (vanilla is NK), the masons confirm each other, the mafia and the bomb vote each other and it's up to the mason to choose between them in the it's still 50%/50% for town day 2. Going no lynch in this scenario is bad as the scum only has a 1/3 chance of hitting the bomb.
I covered the 50%/50% shot for the 2 vs 1 scenario already
50% / 50% is the best day 2 town can get.
So no lynching instead of lynching a mason results in a decreased chance of the mafia losing night 1 with no improvement for day 2, it's a bad plan.
Actually reconsidered this and scum must win in this scenario otherwise the only way they could win would be to generate a mislynch on the bomb.
But what Rhand was saying was that you no lynch a second time and the bomb could go off again.
It takes the power completely out of our hands and puts it in the scum's, basically they have to kill themselves or get "lucky" both nights.
Unless the first night they hit the masons, and then it is at the 2 vs 1 point.
I think I am more inclined towards Rhand's idea at this point.
@Vaimes: I think the way the scum wincon normally is drawn up would mean that scum wins in that scenario. But let's see what IsoMod says.
If a no-kill, no-lynch loop occurs twice, the game will end in a draw.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
You can no lynch a second time in my plan also and then scum has a 50%/50% shot night 2 of hitting the bomb.
By not lynching a mason you simply increase the chance scum survives night 1 with no improvement day/night 2.
No we can't, if scum doesn't hit the bomb in those two NK's. Then he has hit the vanilla and the masons. It's Bomb vs mafia day 3 which means mafia wins.
But I guess it's the best plan.
Let's hear from GJ and get a mason to out himself.
Reminder: we only need 1 mason to out. The other please don't speak up.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Yup you're right...
It does appear to be the winner.
@vaimes
Are you comfortable with this plan since you were thinking this way too?
I'm ready to rumble.
What happens if the mafia chooses to no kill day 1. How does your plan take into account day 2?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
What does it do to our win chances? (ignore the no lynch option there. Scum might choose for the draw-loop and that's not what we want)
I do have a plan, but it does have a risk. The vanilla claims immediately, we see if there is a counterclaim, and then no lynch. The mafia could cc here, but what is much more likely is they stay silent, we no lynch, go to night 1, and that changes the nk chance for hitting the bomb from 25%-33.3% (although the chance for hitting a mason also goes up, but in this case, it isn't lethal).
If the mafia chooses to no kill night 1, then I have an update to the plan. But I need to keep that silent, just to make sure there is no effort to counter play this. It also requires a ton of trust to be put into me. What do you think of that?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
It surprises me that this game has so many viable tactics.
JD: use your calculation skills on this one pls?
I will say that I have done the math and that both plans give exactly a 50/50 shot of town winning if scum takes the right choice for each scenario, I don't want to detail what that is.
It surprises me how balanced this game is.
Either plan looks good to me.
Vote No Lynch.
Now we see if the scum decides to hit me, no kill, or gamble for the masons. Should be fun.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Vote No Lynch
Vote No Lynch
The GJ way path to no lynching:
It is Night 1. Night actions are due within 48 hours of this post.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The town wins!
Your Masons were Huntzilla and Rhand.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Wow I thought Rhand was the Bomb.
...
Welp, at least I can still say I've never been (mis)lynched on MTGS.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
good on you for not CCing JD