You guys know the rules; you've all played before. Claiming ignorance is not an excuse for breaking them. If you're in doubt, refer to any of my previous games for the general guidelines.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I was thinking about that too. It should net us 2 dichotomies or a trichotomy (is that a word?).
Which means 4 or 3 people to lynch in. Which means best case we need to correctly identify only 1 townie for the win.
Bad thing is that the bodyguard will have to out himself and probably won't get a chance to do his thing.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
If we lynch the child, then the bg can protect the dv and we win.
Lynch the bg, if the bads shoot the child, dv can still win it.
@Tor: what about this setup makes the suggestion suspect?
No, Killjoy, that's not how this works. If we lynch a townie today, then either:
(a) both scum shoot a different person - unless both scum somehow shoot each other, most likely the next day will reveal a scum and a townie. Scum win.
(b) both scum shoot the same person - we awaken with two scum and a townie, which means even if the DV survives and lynches one of the scum, the other scum automatically wins.
(c) one scum shoots the bodyguard's protection target - one scum will still survive, and at least 3 people will be dead - the BG, the scum, and the person we lynched - and we lose.
(d) both scum shoot the bodyguard's protection target - depends on whether the bodyguard's protection-kill extends to everyone who targets his target with a kill (Iso, how would this work?). But is so improbable as to not really be credible.
In other words, we're essentially at LyLo right now.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I think it's probably safe to assume scum plus dv going into day is town win, right? But going into night is a loss. In which case option (b) from Xyre's list results in a draw in the case of dv/scum/scum, assuming optimal play from all players.
I am incline to agree, however, that we're essentially at LyLo. Granted, there are a number of 'random' outs in the case we don't lynch successfully, which decreases the need for a random lynch if we cannot somehow become confident in a kill-but our goal (more so than normal day 1s, that is) should be to suss out scum.
Also, I believe that the Innocent Child should activate their ability as soon as possible-it seems unlikely that moving to day 3 is even a possibility, so if we can walk into day 2 with at least one confirmed town, that's well worth doing. It also presents us with an optimal play draw situation, presuming we have confirmed town/sk/mafia left day 2.
I'm not sure I like Tordeck's choice to FoS Xyre for suggesting a mass claim; I believe the setup is very much designed to bait out such a suggestion (and it might actually require it.) That being said, considering we've only seen a couple of posts per player, I don't think it actually says anything about either of them.
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So that complicates the permuations, because if we don't lynch the bodyguard, and the bodyguard can identify the DV, then the scum can't afford to trigger his ability. But the scum will know not to shoot him, either.
Setting aside the possibility that we lynch scum today, in which case it doesn't matter (boils down to if the scum can successfully shoot one of the DV/IC and win a showdown against the EB), you get
1) We lynch the IC, and the DV is revealed.
- EB protects DV.
- Each scum has a 50/50 shot of shooting either the other scum or the EB.
a) If they both shoot the EB, scum win, one way or another - 3 alive with a DV; DV effectively plays kingmaker.
b) If one shoots the EB and one shoots the other, town wins - 2 alive with a DV.
c) If they both shoot each other, lol.
2) We lynch the EB, and the DV is revealed: scum both shoot the DV, last townie plays kingmaker.
To tell the truth, this isn't really making me disfavor a mass claim.
Definitely I think the first move is to have the double-voter show himself, before any other votes go on the board. Nobody else should vote until we're ready to lynch.
I think it's probably safe to assume scum plus dv going into day is town win, right? But going into night is a loss. In which case option (b) from Xyre's list results in a draw in the case of dv/scum/scum, assuming optimal play from all players.
I am incline to agree, however, that we're essentially at LyLo. Granted, there are a number of 'random' outs in the case we don't lynch successfully, which decreases the need for a random lynch if we cannot somehow become confident in a kill-but our goal (more so than normal day 1s, that is) should be to suss out scum.
Also, I believe that the Innocent Child should activate their ability as soon as possible-it seems unlikely that moving to day 3 is even a possibility, so if we can walk into day 2 with at least one confirmed town, that's well worth doing. It also presents us with an optimal play draw situation, presuming we have confirmed town/sk/mafia left day 2.
I'm not sure I like Tordeck's choice to FoS Xyre for suggesting a mass claim; I believe the setup is very much designed to bait out such a suggestion (and it might actually require it.) That being said, considering we've only seen a couple of posts per player, I don't think it actually says anything about either of them.
I agree about the IC using their ability tonight. If they live till D2, having them confirmed is a good idea.
Also, the more I think about it... No Lynching might actually be a good idea, especially if no one claims. Each scum has a 25% chance to hit DV, 25% chance to hit Bodyguard, but also 25% chance to hit either the Child or the other scum, which is optimal. On top of that, there's a chance of dying if they hit the BG's target.
It gives the DV the best chance to live to D2. So I disagree that we're at LyLo.
To answer your question KJ, refer to your own post (post #10) and Rhand's that followed.
This tells me nothing about why you did it. I could guess, but I won't waste my time with that. Just tell us why.
I dislike your FOS, and dislike the quoted response from you. I don't understand why you would not just justify your vote instead of asking others to come up with the answer for themselves.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Nice misrep there KJ, I didnt ask anyone to come with the answer on their own. I very specifically answered your question with reasoning to support my FOS on Xyre.
You said "Look at these two posts for the answer." All those two posts are are discussions about our thoughts on a massclaim. Reading them does not tell me why you FOS'd Xyre.
Just off the top of my head I came up with two potential reasons for why those two posts are relevent to your FOS, but until you specify, I will not know for sure.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I need to do some calculations, but no lynching without claiming or lynching with massclaim seem to be the best options.
No lynching without claiming seems wrong on balance. Based on trying to lay out the fractions, I think it puts us at about 1/3-to-1/4 chance of winning.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I need to do some calculations, but no lynching without claiming or lynching with massclaim seem to be the best options.
No lynching without claiming seems wrong on balance. Based on trying to lay out the fractions, I think it puts us at about 1/3-to-1/4 chance of winning.
I was typing out a whole analysis of what can happen when we claim, but decided not to post it because it might help scum to choose what they claim :/
There are claim scenario's that are superb for us and others that can turn out catastrophic.
Well, the fact that I'm estimating indicates just how tedious it was to write out all the permutations, so I can't be exact, but basically, think of it this way:
Outcomes We Win
3 townies alive - both scum shoot each other
2 townies alive - both scum shoot a townie whom the EB protects
2 townies and one scum alive - one scum shoots someone whom the EB protects, and the other scum shoots either the first scum or the EB.
the DV and one scum alive - both scum shoot a different townie, and either the EB protects the DV or the EB protects the IC and the scum shoot the IC and the EB.
In other words, us winning requires the EB target correctly *and* the scum shooting only certain people, which I approximated at a 1/4 chance, *or* an entirely unlikely situation like the scum shooting each other. This fraction is partly based on the opposite, the outcomes in which we lose:
Outcomes We Lose
2 scum and 2 townies alive - both scum shoot the same townie whom the EB doesn't protect. (Odds are good the town will lynch one scum, and if the DV is still alive, the other scum will shoot him to win.)
1 scum and 1 non-DV townie alive - both scum shoot different people, including the DV, and the EB doesn't protect the DV. (Ex: S1 shoots the DV, S2 shoots S1, and EB protects S1; or S1 shoots the DV, S2 shoots the IC, and EB protects IC.)
2 scum and 1 townie alive - both scum shoot a different townie, and the EB misses.
In other words, setting aside unlikely outcomes like both scum shooting each other or both scum shooting a target whom is also protected, essentially there are three branches:
- both scum shoot the same target - scum win. This is ~1/4.
- both scum shoot a different townie - scum win if DV dies. Assuming the EB chooses randomly (since we don't nec. have any useful information without claims), this is ~2/3*3/4, or ~1/2.
- one scum shoots a townie, and one shoots the other scum - town win unless the EB protects the scum and the other scum shoots a different townie.
Obviously I'm kind of botching this, but that's partly because the permutations get really thorny, and I just don't care that much to lay it all out.
I don't know if claiming partly or entirely actually wins us the game, of course, but it does make it less than a matter of random chance. Based on the above, I think random chance favors the scum. Hence why we need to tip the scales.
If my numbers are right, if we go to Night 1 without claiming and everything is equally possible, we automatically win in 24/64 possibilities, or 37.5%. So I was a bit off. Meanwhile, the scum win in 30/64, or 46.9%, and in the remaining 10/64 the game goes to a lynch on Day 2 where the outcome isn't clear (because it's down to one scum, the EB, and a confirmed townie, and the first two get to duke it out).
However, if you only look at permutations where the EB protects the DV, now the town wins 9/16, the scum win 4/16, and a lynch decides 3/16. So if we, say, have only the DV claim, and proceed to a no lynch, we might have better odds.
Actually, I realized two of the cells were wrong back at the beginning. The probabilities are actually 26/64 town vs. 30/64 scum (vs. 8/64 Day 2). Credit to Iso, the set's more balanced than I thought.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Things seem to check out, assuming that the IC uses their ability every time (and the only situation in which it could be beneficial to the town for them to not is if they're the only one left standing, a likelihood we probably shouldn't be playing for.) It also then follows that we would want to find a way to go into night with a confirmed DV, as suggested, and no other roles claimed. Unless somebody has a compelling argument against it I'm missing, DV claiming is likely correct.
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KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Please withhold further voting until everyone has seen that claim-wouldn't want scum to be able to claim it and pick up the three votes before the actual dv claimed. Not that I particularly suspect Tordeck, but better safe than sorry.
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"Double Voter: Your vote counts as two votes. This will not show up in any votecount or lynch threshold indicator, and will automatically be used any time you vote."
Won't show. I say when we're ready to end the day, one of us just votes.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Yup and that immediately confirms the doublevoter. Which is why there was no problem with him being counterclaimed.
Just be sure not to add another vote after that so we're sure.
I was kind of hoping someone would counterclaim so that we could lynch a confirmed scum, but the cat is out of the bag so meh.
-
ALIVE:
1. shinen
2. Rhand
3. Killjoy
4. Xyre
5. Tordeck
DEAD:
No one yet!
REPLACE:
1. tomsloger
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The Family
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
5 alive, 3 to lynch.
Deadline expires March 20th at 0000 hours. I reserve the right to extend the deadline if necessary.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
We end up with three bodyguard claims and 2 targets for our actual bodyguard.
That might still lose us the game.
No lynching id's out because if sk and maf both kill town it's 1-1-1 and unless dv is alive town losses.
Actually even in lylo only the child should claim (read "use ability") because if dv stays alive even in 1-1 town wins.
Thoughts?
Also we should fos due to low threshold.
I was thinking about that too. It should net us 2 dichotomies or a trichotomy (is that a word?).
Which means 4 or 3 people to lynch in. Which means best case we need to correctly identify only 1 townie for the win.
Bad thing is that the bodyguard will have to out himself and probably won't get a chance to do his thing.
Shall we not rvs with 3 to lynch?
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The Family
Lynch the bg, if the bads shoot the child, dv can still win it.
@Tor: what about this setup makes the suggestion suspect?
No, Killjoy, that's not how this works. If we lynch a townie today, then either:
(a) both scum shoot a different person - unless both scum somehow shoot each other, most likely the next day will reveal a scum and a townie. Scum win.
(b) both scum shoot the same person - we awaken with two scum and a townie, which means even if the DV survives and lynches one of the scum, the other scum automatically wins.
(c) one scum shoots the bodyguard's protection target - one scum will still survive, and at least 3 people will be dead - the BG, the scum, and the person we lynched - and we lose.
(d) both scum shoot the bodyguard's protection target - depends on whether the bodyguard's protection-kill extends to everyone who targets his target with a kill (Iso, how would this work?). But is so improbable as to not really be credible.
In other words, we're essentially at LyLo right now.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I am incline to agree, however, that we're essentially at LyLo. Granted, there are a number of 'random' outs in the case we don't lynch successfully, which decreases the need for a random lynch if we cannot somehow become confident in a kill-but our goal (more so than normal day 1s, that is) should be to suss out scum.
Also, I believe that the Innocent Child should activate their ability as soon as possible-it seems unlikely that moving to day 3 is even a possibility, so if we can walk into day 2 with at least one confirmed town, that's well worth doing. It also presents us with an optimal play draw situation, presuming we have confirmed town/sk/mafia left day 2.
I'm not sure I like Tordeck's choice to FoS Xyre for suggesting a mass claim; I believe the setup is very much designed to bait out such a suggestion (and it might actually require it.) That being said, considering we've only seen a couple of posts per player, I don't think it actually says anything about either of them.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
So that complicates the permuations, because if we don't lynch the bodyguard, and the bodyguard can identify the DV, then the scum can't afford to trigger his ability. But the scum will know not to shoot him, either.
Setting aside the possibility that we lynch scum today, in which case it doesn't matter (boils down to if the scum can successfully shoot one of the DV/IC and win a showdown against the EB), you get
1) We lynch the IC, and the DV is revealed.
- EB protects DV.
- Each scum has a 50/50 shot of shooting either the other scum or the EB.
a) If they both shoot the EB, scum win, one way or another - 3 alive with a DV; DV effectively plays kingmaker.
b) If one shoots the EB and one shoots the other, town wins - 2 alive with a DV.
c) If they both shoot each other, lol.
2) We lynch the EB, and the DV is revealed: scum both shoot the DV, last townie plays kingmaker.
To tell the truth, this isn't really making me disfavor a mass claim.
Definitely I think the first move is to have the double-voter show himself, before any other votes go on the board. Nobody else should vote until we're ready to lynch.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The Family
Also, the more I think about it... No Lynching might actually be a good idea, especially if no one claims. Each scum has a 25% chance to hit DV, 25% chance to hit Bodyguard, but also 25% chance to hit either the Child or the other scum, which is optimal. On top of that, there's a chance of dying if they hit the BG's target.
It gives the DV the best chance to live to D2. So I disagree that we're at LyLo.
This tells me nothing about why you did it. I could guess, but I won't waste my time with that. Just tell us why.
I dislike your FOS, and dislike the quoted response from you. I don't understand why you would not just justify your vote instead of asking others to come up with the answer for themselves.
UnFOS Xyre, FOS KJ
The Family
Just off the top of my head I came up with two potential reasons for why those two posts are relevent to your FOS, but until you specify, I will not know for sure.
FOS Tordeck
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The Family
Tordeck: ...are you high? I'm not understanding how you are apparently not understanding my argument here.
There are claim scenario's that are superb for us and others that can turn out catastrophic.
How did you arrive at those win chances Xyre?
Outcomes We Win
3 townies alive - both scum shoot each other
2 townies alive - both scum shoot a townie whom the EB protects
2 townies and one scum alive - one scum shoots someone whom the EB protects, and the other scum shoots either the first scum or the EB.
the DV and one scum alive - both scum shoot a different townie, and either the EB protects the DV or the EB protects the IC and the scum shoot the IC and the EB.
In other words, us winning requires the EB target correctly *and* the scum shooting only certain people, which I approximated at a 1/4 chance, *or* an entirely unlikely situation like the scum shooting each other. This fraction is partly based on the opposite, the outcomes in which we lose:
Outcomes We Lose
2 scum and 2 townies alive - both scum shoot the same townie whom the EB doesn't protect. (Odds are good the town will lynch one scum, and if the DV is still alive, the other scum will shoot him to win.)
1 scum and 1 non-DV townie alive - both scum shoot different people, including the DV, and the EB doesn't protect the DV. (Ex: S1 shoots the DV, S2 shoots S1, and EB protects S1; or S1 shoots the DV, S2 shoots the IC, and EB protects IC.)
2 scum and 1 townie alive - both scum shoot a different townie, and the EB misses.
In other words, setting aside unlikely outcomes like both scum shooting each other or both scum shooting a target whom is also protected, essentially there are three branches:
- both scum shoot the same target - scum win. This is ~1/4.
- both scum shoot a different townie - scum win if DV dies. Assuming the EB chooses randomly (since we don't nec. have any useful information without claims), this is ~2/3*3/4, or ~1/2.
- one scum shoots a townie, and one shoots the other scum - town win unless the EB protects the scum and the other scum shoots a different townie.
Obviously I'm kind of botching this, but that's partly because the permutations get really thorny, and I just don't care that much to lay it all out.
I don't know if claiming partly or entirely actually wins us the game, of course, but it does make it less than a matter of random chance. Based on the above, I think random chance favors the scum. Hence why we need to tip the scales.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
If my numbers are right, if we go to Night 1 without claiming and everything is equally possible, we automatically win in 24/64 possibilities, or 37.5%. So I was a bit off. Meanwhile, the scum win in 30/64, or 46.9%, and in the remaining 10/64 the game goes to a lynch on Day 2 where the outcome isn't clear (because it's down to one scum, the EB, and a confirmed townie, and the first two get to duke it out).
However, if you only look at permutations where the EB protects the DV, now the town wins 9/16, the scum win 4/16, and a lynch decides 3/16. So if we, say, have only the DV claim, and proceed to a no lynch, we might have better odds.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If that's the best possible play, what's to stop one or two scum from counterclaiming DV?
And I'm looking through Xyre's spreadsheet now, will post with stuff about that shortly.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
I mean makes scum shooting other scum more likely but if you discount scum shooting the DV, it looks mostly red to me.
Wait no, if we take out all instances that the scum shoot the DV, it's mostly blue. Nvm.
The Family
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Why? If it's earnestly believed to be the best play for the town, then the town will agree, and scum will have to agree.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
Vote No Lynch
The Family
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
The Family
Won't show. I say when we're ready to end the day, one of us just votes.
No Lynch (1): Tordeck
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Just be sure not to add another vote after that so we're sure.
I was kind of hoping someone would counterclaim so that we could lynch a confirmed scum, but the cat is out of the bag so meh.