That means all my previous town-reads are back on the chop block for examination, because one of them HAS to be wrong.
I still am not connecting the dots where you dropped Seppel as a potential scum read, even with you being wrong about Rhand.
Quote from Azrael »
On one hand, we have GJ saying, if Seppel flips scum, Azrael is 100% scum! And on the other hand, we have Cyan saying, if Seppel flips town, Azrael is 100% scum!
That is a complete misrep and you know it. I said I was pretty sure, and if seppel does flip scum, you could be town. My original team was WG/Seppel/Cythare, or WG/Seppel/Az.
You, however, did not feel that way about Rhand. You, apparently, seem to find it incredulous that anyone would read him as scum. So which of us had the motive to take out Rhand, GJ? Who had a perspective that felt that Rhand was an unlynchable threat that needed to be taken out? Not me. You.
I don't think anyone aside from you felt that way about Rhand. Cyan was also just as unlynchable, and a lot stronger of a player.
Maybe you're not alone in that, but I hardly find this a point in your favor, and it certainly doesn't make coherent sense as to my having a sinister scum plan that involved saving Seppel, running out of lynch targets, but wanting to kill someone who I and others considered a very suspicious slot.
The nightkills are pretty obvious at this stage. Who else aside from you would have legitimately considered a Rhand lynch?
And no, the fact that he skim-read and came up wrong on the facts makes very little impression upon me. That's exactly the type of mistake that a fair-minded person recognizes is completely null.
Except that that spins an entirely different circumstance than what Jobie accused of him. Instead of "distancing" from WG, only to go at him when it was inevitable, Proph was hardcore hunting him until he flipped, with little flexibility in Seppel.
As to GJ, I'm curious why he would have been interested to know whether or not a player had been role-blocked, when all of us with abilities had declared ourselves null
Why so passive aggressive in this? To answer your question, I was curious if the mafia targeted Rhand outright, or if died by mistake. If you are claiming the RB was used on you, than what likely happened was Rhand protected Cyan.
Proph, I was one of the three people pushing hard for the WG lynch for the entirety of day 2, the day he actually WAS lynched.
The fact that you need to point that out is really reeking of desperation. You weren't pushing that hard if you didn't care whether Seppel or WG died.
Quote from Cyan »
GJ, can you tell me more about why you think Seppel and AZ could be scum togther? Because like..that is 100% opposite of the impression that I have. Also, what ARE some of your other scum games?
Mostly process of elimination. Due to the opening votes, I am having a hard time seeing an Az/Jobie scum team. If those two are scum, it makes too much sense from a perspective to let a town Seppel get away for a day. Unless they thought they could convince you on Proph today, and then Seppel tomorrow, but that seems long a ridiculous longshot, and a chance to draw ire which neither one of them needed.
I do want to hear from GJ. I haven't forgotten that he tried to move us to a Seppel lynch instead of a WG one late yesterday.
Because the order didn't really matter to me. Even after his cases, I had a hard time reading how he got to some of his reads. His read on me felt very weird where he put in a bunch of things, calling my defense tight, but then saying he was null. He did pump out a lot of work, but I can't see how he was null, and not scum/leaning scum on me, or how he wasn't scum/null on Cythare.
Nope. One of you or Seppel should be scum, and one of you is dying today. And why are we talking about Day 1 now?
There is no realistic gamestate where you are both town, and you trying to convince me that this exists only makes me think you are more likely to be scum. Please just stop. Yes, yesterday I had a bunch of insecure moments. I have put all of that behind me.
And at the moment where it mattered MOST yesterday, which is the one where *YOU* were under pressure, when you were already voting WG, you chose to stop voting WG, whom we now know is scum. and try to push a wagon on Seppel, whom we would know to be town in that scenario. If we lose the game because of this, then..oh well. This is the odds on correct play, and I will always, always, 100% always make the odds correct play. I just want to make this abundantly clear. If we lynch Seppel today and he flips town, I will vote you with my opening post tomorrow and will never unvote until you are dead, short of another scum actively stating that they are scum. This is not hyperbole nor is it exaggeration. This is behavior evidence that amounts to you being caught as scum, for all intents and purposes.
I am not letting you talk your way out of this.
If I decide that you aren't scum, it won't be because you keep making these posts. They are having the opposite effect that you want, because they are not actual behavior evidence pointing out why you are town. They are just theoretical. I don't deal in theoretical. I never have, and you know it. So please just stop.
No, cyan, I am not going to stop, because after this game I want you to look back -
*takes a deep breath*
I liked you much better when you realized how wrong you were.
I'm done with you for a few hours at least, otherwise I'm going to bite your head off, and I'd prefer to bite your head off...courteously.
Seppel if you're town the first thing I am doing is probably strangling Jobie because yesterday makes no sense in a town seppl/scum wheat world unless scum was lacking the capacity to sway the vote. If you're scum I like Proph as the last member, for reasons stated yesterday
You're so confident in your unverified ideas that even Chris, who did his homework, got inside my head completely, and knew better, is starting to doubt himself.
By the way I am a data monster, pretty much. I eat things and process them as they come to me. I am not doubting myself, I am thinking. I get paranoid when I am out on an island by myself on an issue. Then the kill happens and it's a bit of a weird kill. Then you say stuff like this and it worries me. You have a metric ton in your favor as far as I am concerned but I am not the sort to just ignore things around intelligent players. Stupid players I can call town, throw them in a fridge, and forget about them. Intelligent players demand constant watching. I think you're starting to crack a bit today, but that can happen to town just as easily as it can scum.
If I do pull it off, the gain is extremely desirable: the restoration of my ability to add an additional lynch for the town. The risk of making the town more suspicious is one I'm quite willing to accept, since my reputation cuts both ways. It's something the scum would be likely to expect from me, but it's something the town should be equally likely to accept coming from me. The importance of the objective makes it entirely worth the risk. Perhaps that's my typical nonchalance towards the possiblity of being mislynched also talking there. It doesn't happen to me very often.
See I think this is just delusional enough to make you town, for example. Like I want to say literally everyone aside from me wants you dead and I basically corpse dragged you through yesterday and instead of having any appreciation for the amount of effort it has taken me to sway people you trample around the topic as if you've done anything of note to aid your own survival other than having me be in the topic with you.
Like really there's just a certain... something that I have to think is town because it is so beyond the pale in its recklessness.
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Seppel if you're town the first thing I am doing is probably strangling Jobie because yesterday makes no sense in a town seppl/scum wheat world unless scum was lacking the capacity to sway the vote. If you're scum I like Proph as the last member, for reasons stated yesterday
Wait, why am I getting strangled?
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Sigh. Why can I just not make sense of this stupid game. Like..if Seppel is town, and Jobie is scum, why does Jobie run in here like an idiot and try to like Proph? Why doesn't he just sit back and let the town run Seppel up and literally get a free lynch out of it? He could just come in, say 'looks like the town knew what they were talking about yesterday, let's go ahead with the plan, vote Seppel, ho hum dee dum' and none the wiser'?
And then Azrael just double barrels it? Like..what in the actual **** is happening there? This is just unreal sloppy. I was honestly ready to give Az a second chance after yesterday, but this post was soooooooooo bad. Like fatally bad. I'm going to re-read him, but I know when I get to this post it is just going to make me steam all over again, because it is so miserable. But I digress.
I'm trying to work out the rest of this.
If Seppel is town..then..what? Does Jobie just really run up in here all gung ho going for someone else as scum? I have a hard time accepting this. Even if it does setup tomorrow as lynch or lose day. Did he really think a bunch of other people were just going to say 'hey you're right, we'll just lynch the guy that made the scum lynch happen yesterday, you got it!'. I can't believe this. And after how well Jobie did as scum recently in AG, I'm having a hard time believing that he would make this error. He seems craftier than this right now, even though I acknowledge that he just replaced in and a scum just died.
However. If Seppel is scum, then the situation is much, much different, and makes sense. Now, they need to create a lynch SOMEWHERE, but they can't really just go after the same person without being extremely obvious. But at the same time, they don't really have that many options either. Seppel can continue to go after Az like he started to do yesterday, and Jobie can try to poke holes..whereever he can, which apparently he erronously decided was Proph(probably should have picked GJ).
I still can't shake how much it bothers me that Az just piled on the second vote here. Like..holy crap that is just so unbelievably scummy, especially when Proph stuck on WG so much yesterday. Proph could have lynched Az himself and chose to just stay on WG instead, and yet...somehow that means nothing to Az. This just doesn't track.
I think Seppel is the correct lynch for today, and that is how we should proceed. If he flips town, we will have to re-evaluate. Some of what Az has said recently sounds sincere, but then he certainly knows how to fake that when he needs to. The things that he has said in the moments where he wasn't trying to fake it are what concerns me.
I still can't shake how much it bothers me that Az just piled on the second vote here. Like..holy crap that is just so unbelievably scummy, especially when Proph stuck on WG so much yesterday. Proph could have lynched Az himself and chose to just stay on WG instead, and yet...somehow that means nothing to Az. This just doesn't track.
I'm just going to assume that you're currently incapable of seeing things from any perspective aside from your own, and lead by example.
Vote Sir Chris for being the most dangerous person if he's scum.
Healthy town paranoia to start with.
Quote from Seppel »
I can read Azrael better than anyone else, so please trust my read on him.
A fairly townish type of concern. So far, so good. Either natural townish responses, or good faking.
Quote from Seppel »
Holy crap I have a townread on Chris.
Self-consistent with first post.
Quote from Seppel »
Azrael: what did you see?
My vote on Cythare is just to add pressure. Seems like it did the job?
This is where I want it:
Unvote, vote Gentleman Johnny
Hmm. I don't think I have a problem with any of this.
Quote from Seppel »
This is the next wagon I want to pursue:
Unvote, vote Proph
Wheat reminded me that Proph is scum.
*thinks* No problem with this either.
Quote from Seppel »
Arguments like this have been proven to be garbage. In a recent game, we even had 6 townies on a D1 wagon before it dissolved.
Like the way he deals with this Proph argument.
Quote from Seppel »
I'm not sure why I thought this was so golden. It's definitely a townie reaction, but it's fakable, at least by Chris. See, Chris, instead of giving in to pressure and trying to come up with some read on me, says that it's impossible to come up with a read on me based on the few posts I've made so far. There's just pure indignation in regards to having enough time to scumhunt me. He even points out that I haven't done anything that aligns with either my town or scum meta, which is a neat thing to add -- it shows that he's thinking about me subjectively (townie thinking) instead of trying to find reasons that will fit whether or not it's a good time to push a lynch on me (scum thinking).
So yeah. Chris is a good faker, but I don't think he was faking.
The reasoning on this Chris read is very sharp, very thoughtful. Not likely to be faked.
Quote from Seppel »
Wow I have a townread on Wheat.
Also Rhand is town.
Okay so who is actually in this game?
Azrael - Vig
Cyan - Cop
Rhand - Bodyguard
Iso - Filthy Redirector
Seppel - [Town]
Wheat_Grinder - [Town]
DCIII - [Town]
Gentleman Johnny - [Likely Town]
Cythare
Prophylaxis
Sir Chris
ZeDorkSlipeur
Okay so Iso is scum simply because he's the counter to all the other roles. Mafia likely doesn't have a roleblocker. Or do they? I suggest we focus our efforts to find the remaining 2 in Cythare/Proph/Chris/ZDS.
Or we could lynch Iso to guarantee that Az and Cyan get a shot off. Rhand BGs Cyan, and Az fires into the crowd.
This is a post where Seppel starts going off the rails, in terms of anti-town effect.
*scans over* The trick is figuring out if he genuinely came to hold those views, or if it's a cover. Hmm.
I wonder if Seppel's read on Iso here, and his read on me later, are the results of his relationships with us. Like, ordinarily, I do fall into the precise pattern of either buddying Seppel hard and following up on his reads, asking his opinion, etc. when I'm convinced he's town. Sometimes, even when I'm not town. And for a number of reasons, that hasn't really happened this game. Inactivity, Seppel's reads being bonkers IMO, and a lack of a fully researched read, primarily.
Not sure where the town-read on WG came from,that was never well-documented. But his scum-read on WG from earlier wasn't something he was seriously committed to, either.
I suppose I can't really fault him for his logic on viewing Iso as the foil to all the other power roles. It's a logic that makes sense, if you start with the assumption that Ged isn't going to play mind games with you. Which is a silly assumption to make, as it happens, but not really one I can blame him for.
Personally, I'm increasingly gravitating towards GJ and Proph as my prime suspects. Seps town-reads GJ here, but I think a lot of us were at that point, so again, not much to fault him for here really.
I don't like his trajectory, but I understand how he got there. : /
Quote from Seppel »
SCUM DETECTED
WOOP WOOP WOOP
*sigh* Seppel killing off ZDS.
*thinks*
With Seps thinking that WG was likely town, and ZDS lurking as hard as he was, and Seppel making comments regarding that (omitted from my PBPA), this flows pretty naturally.
Quote from Seppel »
Eyebrow
Something is seriously wrong here.
First time Seps starts to look askance at me, since he doesn't understand that I took his statement as a proposal, rather than a warning.
Quote from Seppel »
Pot, kettle. Lynch this guy. This post is an Iso scumpost.
Yeah, I can't blame him for any of these reactions, given his starting assumptions. And they don't seem faked.
Quote from Seppel »
Uh huh.
Unvote, vote ZDS.
Retaliatory vote on ZDS for ZDS saying seppel's clueless on scum-reads. A pretty cheeky Seppel-ism. Bad play, but consistent with his personality.
Quote from Seppel »
Nobody is talking about anything that interests me. This page was a slog to read. Someone PBPA me or something. I'm dying here.
I would call this post a tier 1 town tell.^^
Very natural, a sentiment that isn't usually something the scum creatively fake, occurring outside the range of time where scum fake early town tells on purpose, fits within the context of what was going on, genuine townie emotional markers.
Highly reliable indicator of Seppel townieness, IMO.
Quote from Seppel »
I established this over 9,000 years ago. Please move on to something else.
lol
Replying to Rhand,referring to WG being town. Very, very wrong, but completely brash and natural about it.
That sentence might sum up Seppel's play this game in general.
Quote from Seppel »
That's a crap excuse for having terrible posts throughout the entire game.
Seppel refusing to accept ZDS's genuine explanation for lack of activity. Anti-town but not scummy. That does need an acroynm or catch-phrase or something.
Quote from Seppel »
Thanks. You're next.
You can't redirect both Az and Cyan.
Quote from Seppel »
oh we lynched ZDS I had this window open for a while
yay
Seppel still failing to realize the obvious mislynch. *head shake*
Quote from Seppel »
DCIII is town. This is his towngame.
I didn't read page four but I'll trust you on this.
Unvote, vote WG
Hey, Seppel actually voting scum for a change! (Going along with my crusade vs WG)
Quote from Seppel »
Unvote, vote Wheat
Chris convinced me.
I find myself scrolling past all of Proph's posts without reading them.
Sticking on WG. The "double buddying" thing of cozying up to me and Chris is worth noting. Minor down-tick.
Feel his pain re: Proph.
Quote from Seppel »
Here's my list:
TOWN
DCIII
Sir Chris
I DON'T KNOW
Azrael
Cyan
Cythare
Gentleman Johnny
Prophylaxis
Rhand
SCUM
Wheat_Grinder
*thumbs up*
Pretty much where I was at, on that day, for scum-reads.
Quote from Seppel »
Actually Az is probably town because I don't think he would bus his only remaining buddy for no reason.
Back when he had a correct read on me. Aside from the correctness, which I'm obviously partial towards, it shows him organically drawing conclusions off his declared reads. +Town
Quote from Seppel »
ScumChris tilt!
Disagree...don't think I blame.
Quote from Seppel »
Are we to believe the following:
1: Az is looking at his own role PM, seeing the flavor there.
2: Iso is suggesting that he's a PR with flavor.
3: Az is suggesting that, DESPITE BOTH ISO AND AZ HAVING FLAVOR, that Chris could be a PR without flavor? Eyebrow
This doesn't make sense.
I'll continue reading for an explanation.
Here's where Seppel went off the rails on me. I still feel this attack was perfectly fine initially, but absolutely horrendous after I provided the explanation of what I was actually trying to accomplish there, tricksy-like, in muddying the waters surrounding my own claim and protecting Chris in the bargain. But Seppel kind of gets the bit in his teeth and never reexamines his initial assumption after that.
Quote from Seppel »
I think this response is dumb and that Az purposefully made it so he can't be cleared/caught.
And that's all of Az.
Verdict: Scum.
Unvote, vote Azrael
~Seppel
Correct that I was lying, incorrect about the reasons why.
Quote from Seppel »
I don't get Az's anger here. Maybe he's angry because he can't get Cyan lynched now?
This was particularly dense of him. (Can't understand why I was angry that Iso singlehandedly destroyed all our abilities.)
Quote from Seppel »
Now I want a giant Is that so? emoticon with smaller Is that so? emoticons shooting out of the eyebrows, upwards and to the sides.
This in response to my statement that instead of lynching ZDS or Chris, I wanted to lynch actual scum. Perhaps I can get someone to commission an "I told you so" smilie?
Which I adore - at least the first half of it. He kind of has a traumatic brain injury at some point in the 2nd half and his read flips around. This was a good part of what got the ball rolling on flipping my read against Proph; I went from my Seppel reread directly into reading Proph next.
This line by Proph that Seppel highlighted:
"I played with him in True Name Mafia and I remembered that he was advocating pressure on Az D1, so it felt weird to me that he would advocate himself as the "best Az reader". I'm unsure if he's scum yet - just trying to sort out an inconsistency."
- screams scum.
Quote from Seppel »
This post really highlights how I feel about proph -- he asks good questions, but this responses to other people's questions are awful.
Disagree on this- I like neither the questions, the responses, nor the made-up quantitative, quasi-statistical analysis he's posting which are comically manipulable, and full of logic errors.
Quote from Seppel »
"Iso's scum forte generally ends up being "quote strips until he gets pressured, then try to reread the thread posting notes" which I'm not seeing in this game. I think he reads town."
"I do think that Az is the type of player who as scum runs out of steam in the midgame."
" I don't think he would vote Cyan like that - it seems like a risky move for scum!Seppel to make with basically zero gain. He's completely wrong re: my alignment, though."
Like, these are things that he didn't have to say. They close his options significantly if he's scum.
Here's the bit where Seps train of reasoning suddenly jumps the tracks to illogical-ville, once again. None of these reads, and their 10,000 weaselly qualifiers, actually foreclose Proph from changing his mind later.
And the actual reads Proph has at this point - WG, ZDS, and Chris, in that order, are absolutely terrible. WG as his token scum in the least suspicious position, then two strong townie analysts who no one in their right mind should have been reading as scum by the end of the day. Both the content and the way Proph describes his reads in that post scream textbook scum.
As far as Seppel is concerned though, I'd argue *insert anti-town but not scummy catchphrase here*.
Quote from Seppel »
Conclusion: Too close to call. I'd like responses from a lot of stuff in this post. If we're playing "hunt the bad guy hiding in the PRs," I would say it's Az and not look back.
I'm guessing this is why Seps isn't likely to come to his senses and back off on me. He's still stuck in the bad logic loop that made him falsely scum-read Iso as well, instead of looking at the players' behavior in isolation from their claims.
Quote from Seppel »
Conclusion: Hard scum. There's nothing that could explain away this mountain of scumminess.
This, RE: WG.
Completely townish sentiment,here, and throughout the balance of the PBPA on Wheat.
Quote from Seppel »
I'm not scare-mongering you. You're playing in a way that is so annoying that I'd rather quit than fight this basal level of posting I've seen from you.
That was your chance to take the blinders off, but you've just shown that you need to push this mislynch through to win.
Actually, wait. Who are you counting on being your third mislynch? Once I flip town, you and Wheat are going down. Then what? Chris and Johnny have an epic endgame showdown with Rhand being too busy on a cruise to pay much attention to the game, so you hope he mishammers? Maybe keep Proph alive and someone might be stupid enough to hammer him?
What is your endgame plan? How can you possibly win?
You can't.
You're already caught. You've already lost.
I buy this completely wrong-headed post as genuinely townie.
You can practically see unwritten, implied ellipses as the wheels in his mind turn as he rights the post, and the emotions are right for someone who think he's got caught scum.
Quote from Seppel »
Here's how the rest of the game should go:
N2: Rhand dies while protecting Cyan (or they block Cyan + kill Rhand)
D3: Lynch Wheat
N3: Cyan dies (or Rhand if still alive)
D4: Lynch Azrael
N4: Taredas dies
We endgame with:
1. Sir Chris
2. Prophylaxis
3. Cythare
4. Gentleman Johnny
NL if you want Proph or Chris to pointlessly die.
Cythare and GJ duke it out. GJ probably wins due to posting more. We find out if we've won.
HAPPY T-GIVING!
Oh, yuck. So much yuck.
Quote from Seppel »
If I'm wrong about Az, then I really don't know where to go from there.
Yeah...you're gonna need to work on that.
My impressions are increasingly solidifying against Proph, and GJ. You almost got Proph correct, Seps. You just weirdly talked yourself out of it. And I don't think you actually ever did your PBPA on GJ, and I think perhaps you should have.
TL; DR: Seppel is hard town, and I will fight you if you want to kill him.
He is very wrong, very repeatedly at times, but you can trace the chain of reasoning behind it link by link every step of the way. And he had a ton of pro-town tells buried in various places that passed most of us by as innocuous the first go-around.
Actually, before we get to that part, I'd like the people who still think Seppel is scummy to see what exactly it was that made them think that.
Because honestly, I feel like many/most of us got that way by simply looking at his bonkers reads on iso and ZDS and Chris, but ignored how he got there in the first place, failed to look for his town tells (and they're painfully obvious once you look hard enough), and have been looking at null seppel-isms such as his brashness and inattention to detail (Cyan's claim, etc.) as inauthentic.
Like, its a little weird that he keeps forgetting it, but I don't see a good reason to chalk up to malice what can be easily explained by a simple mistake/flub, to heavily corrupt a Napoleonic saying.
@Chris: read what I just posted re: Jobie scum/Seppel town. Also his reaction just now. That comes across as sincere to me.
I think a scum jobie and a town jobie are equally capable of not reading the game well and misunderstanding circumstance. I mean we assume a scum Jobie has a full idea of the game state but he replaced in the middle of the night, it needn't be the case. Also Jobie is sly as scum, we both know it, I think you're way too quick to just write him off. I view his opening as pretty null all things considered with maybe a lean on trying to sound too crazy and wacky to be scum. Could be as simple as Seppel is scum and Jobie really is being sincere though.
Okay so we have a problem Az. Namely that if Seppel is town I do not buy Proph as scum. It just doesn't add up with how much he kept stumping Seppel yesterday. He defended him again and again. So for you to be like "Seppel is town!" and then go "Proph is a scum candidate!" is not something I can agree with. Also it just seems like you were chomping to give Seppel a pass. You literally declared an RVS post 'healthy town paranoia' I mean that could not have been more rubber stamped. One of the big things I agree with is his thoughts on me coming off as genuine, I will grant you that and also sure he has stayed within the boundaries of space and time for the most part. Don't agree that his Wheat switch was organic though, and have absolutely no idea how you can think that. His switch to Wheat, when he was hard defending him to 'sure', was as inorganic as can be.
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I think a scum jobie and a town jobie are equally capable of not reading the game well and misunderstanding circumstance. I mean we assume a scum Jobie has a full idea of the game state but he replaced in the middle of the night, it needn't be the case. Also Jobie is sly as scum, we both know it, I think you're way too quick to just write him off. I view his opening as pretty null all things considered with maybe a lean on trying to sound too crazy and wacky to be scum.
Endorse and reraise. Factual errors are the very definition of null tells.
Quote from Sir Chris »
Okay so we have a problem Az. Namely that if Seppel is town I do not buy Proph as scum. It just doesn't add up with how much he kept stumping Seppel yesterday. He defended him again and again. So for you to be like "Seppel is town!" and then go "Proph is a scum candidate!" is not something I can agree with. Also it just seems like you were chomping to give Seppel a pass. You literally declared an RVS post 'healthy town paranoia' I mean that could not have been more rubber stamped. One of the big things I agree with is his thoughts on me coming off as genuine, I will grant you that and also sure he has stayed within the boundaries of space and time for the most part. Don't agree that his Wheat switch was organic though, and have absolutely no idea how you can think that. His switch to Wheat, when he was hard defending him to 'sure', was as inorganic as can be.
Where did Seppel ever hard-defend Wheat? He made a 2-3 scattered comments on wheat being town, very early in the game, but when the time came for serious pressure to start assembling on Wheat, he was right there with me and the handful of others who were pushing strongly for it, and never backed off of that stance.
I put a lot of stick in RVS post analysis, actually. The jokes that people make at the start of the game, the patterns that people's minds run to when they're trying to figure out how to be themselves in a game in a vacuum without content, can be extremely useful to read. Seppel's mind going instantly towards "Sir Chris is going to be tough to read this game because he's an awesome scum player" is a pretty classic townie pattern. Fakeable? Of course. But still encouraging.
As for Proph, I'll reserve commenting on him in-depth until I've had a thorough chance to read the motivations behind his stances, but I find it far, far less interesting what someone's position was, compared to WHY they hold that position. In a situation where WG is a sure-fire bus, and Seppel is a sure-fire lynch with or without Proph's assistance, I have no problems envisioning scum-Proph being interested in sprucing up his record for town-cred. If the town is going to kill someone with or without you, then hell yeah, it's textbook scum play to go along with it to pick up the town-cred.
No Az, he wasn't. Day 1 ended in a 7-4 lynch on town. You were on Wheat. I was on Wheat. ZDS was on Wheat. PROPH was on Wheat. Day 1! Seppel wasn't there. Why do you give him the credit for "time came for serious pressure" when we could have strangled Wheat day one if he hadn't been defending him there. Like did you just forget that votes were 5-4 zds vs wheat before two quick votes by GJ and Wheat to end the day? Day 1 was very much up in the air until that point, Seppel was on the wrong side. Also by hard defend I meant he was solidly town for him, I guess seppel doesn't really....hard anything. He's like pudding.
Also I put nothing in RVS analysis. Absolutely nothing and I think it is an error to do so, Az. That's just staring into the abyss hoping something doesn't stare back and I have my severe doubts it has worked well for you over the years, but I guess that's whatever. Then again I've never even tried to look into such patterns so maybe? I just... well in fairness I hadn't even heard of RVS before coming here, so maybe.
Also if Proph literally chose to bus his buddy over killing a town Seppel as scum then Proph is like the dumbest scum player of all time lol. Like that would be such an incredibly hard bus.
But yeah please respond to the seppel/wheat thing because I just think you've bumped your head man.
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If Seppel is town and Proph is scum, Proph could have gone along with the Seppel lynch with complete impunity and then just gone back to bussing his scum buddy the next day. He actually might have come out of that looking EVEN MORE TOWN, because he could have run the 'I told you so'. Proph is not scum here, come off of it. I do need to go back and check something at the end of Day 1, though, based on something Sir Chris said.
No Az, he wasn't. Day 1 ended in a 7-4 lynch on town. You were on Wheat. I was on Wheat. ZDS was on Wheat. PROPH was on Wheat. Day 1! Seppel wasn't there. Why do you give him the credit for "time came for serious pressure" when we could have strangled Wheat day one if he hadn't been defending him there. Like did you just forget that votes were 5-4 zds vs wheat before two quick votes by GJ and Wheat to end the day? Day 1 was very much up in the air until that point, Seppel was on the wrong side. Also by hard defend I meant he was solidly town for him, I guess seppel doesn't really....hard anything. He's like pudding.
Sort of. Seppel can come down hard on reads, he's done it plenty of times this game. He came down on both me and Wheat like a ton of bricks.
I wish he had been on the right side of the debate day one, and I suppose you could say that he indirectly defended Wheat by pushing on ZDS quite so hard as he did, but I read that as more of an indirect consequence of his bad read on ZDS, than I read it as an intentional effort to avoid killing Wheat. There's very little signs of him being nervous or hesitant about killing off WG just as soon as the ZDS was eliminated from the picture.
Quote from Sir Chris »
Also I put nothing in RVS analysis. Absolutely nothing and I think it is an error to do so, Az. That's just staring into the abyss hoping something doesn't stare back and I have my severe doubts it has worked well for you over the years, but I guess that's whatever. Then again I've never even tried to look into such patterns so maybe? I just... well in fairness I hadn't even heard of RVS before coming here, so maybe.
Yeah, you might want to look into that. There was a game where I once caught Seppel as scum at post #8 due to RVS analysis. I know another player who I very much respect who is fond of saying that you can catch scum based on how they respond to questions about their favorite movies. And he's right about that. RVS can give you some very useful information.
Quote from Sir Chris »
Also if Proph literally chose to bus his buddy over killing a town Seppel as scum then Proph is like the dumbest scum player of all time lol. Like that would be such an incredibly hard bus.
But yeah please respond to the seppel/wheat thing because I just think you've bumped your head man.
There are a lot of different philosophies on how to play scum out there, and they can lead people to make choices like these precisely to set up the town for this exact argument. That's pretty much the entire reason why the term town-cred even exists.
If you know the town will read you as town if only you take action X, there's a pretty fair argument for taking action x to manipulate their perceptions, particularly if you take a long enough view to realize that even if WG survived that day, he wouldn't be surviving very much longer. I'm not sure why you think that's such a hard sell.
At the point a buddy of mine is a major lynch wagon, and at the point I've gone on record since day one that I suspect that person, am I going to continue to hold that stance, or am I going to deviate at the last instant in hopes that the town won't see that inconsistency, lynch my buddy tomorrow anyways, and then lynch me after that?
So..in a pretty big 180 from the rest of the game..I think GJ might be scum. I was looking over Day 1 and noticed some things. First I noticed this early game VC.
(5) Sir Chris - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Prophylaxis, Rhand, Wheat_Grinder
(2) Iso - Cythare, Seppel
(2) Wheat_Grinder - Sir Chris, ZeDorkSlipeur
(1) Prophylaxis - Azrael
(1) ZeDorkSlipeur - DCIII
(1) Cyan - Iso
Sir Chris is pretty obviously town. Looking at this wagon, if GJ isn't scum, that means there was only one scum on the wagon, so one of the others should have found there way onto it. It's also important to note that Seppel posted 12 hours after this post, when no votes had changed. I am quickly losing any hope that he is scum. Because if he were, I *really* think he would have stuck his vote here, which would have put SC at L-1, and just forced the wagon to topple over essentially. It's worth taking that risk to get a player of SC's caliber lynched.
But anyway. This is about GJ. He ultimately hammered ZDS, despite having said virtually nothing about him before that.
At one point, he flatly told us:
I am not lynching ZDS over SC.
His sum total content on the ZDS wagon BEFORE hammering was:
That list by ZDS is absolutely awful. Wheat is his only scum read, with Rhand by association? DCIII is the only other read that could be a potential scum read.
Then WG places the 6th vote on ZDS, and GJ just insta-hammers him a short time later. It looks pretty awful now, in retro-spect.
It's definitely enough to make me go back and look at all of his posts.
There is also this gem, from WG:
Az - town
Cyan - town
Cythare - town
DCIII - leaning town
Gentleman Johnny - leaning scum (outside 4th)
Iso - leaning town
Prophylaxis - scum
Rhand - null (mostly since I don't remember anything he's done this game)
Seppel - town
Sir Chris - scum
ZeDorkSlipeur - scum
Scum always seem to include a scumbuddy in their T/S lists for some reason. We know it wasn't ZDS. I don't believe it is SC or Proph. That only leaves GJ. And having it be the guy that is 'leaning scum' makes more sense anyway.
So I'm gning to fully review GJ now. It would be great if someone else(this means you, Sir Chris, just to be clear, because I don't trust anyone else that much, except maybe Taredas, but he just decided to replace in and post at the absolute minimum acceptable level, so..).
Cyan you said it would be great if someone else and then you didn't say anything. Would you like me to look over GJ as well? Because I already have, I have my misgivings but also the way Wheat talked to him was pretty sneaky.
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I'm having a hard time making heads or tails of GJ in my review of him. But I did come across this post by him.
The reason I went through with ZDS was that I had been feeling worse about ZDS as the day was going on. At the best point, he was a null read after I got out of my tunnel on Iso. When it was Chris vs ZDS, I felt stronger about Chris being more likely candidate for scum, but it felt like support for that was starting to wane. With the deadline being about 4 days (it was a Thursday, and the deadline was Monday), Iso was trying to wagon DCIII, Wheat was starting to build up, I felt as though ZDS was the best vote at the time over Wheat (and I strongly disagreed with DCIII being scum). The vanillas for the most part have to be sorted first, and let the mafia deal with the claimed PRs. The hope was Az would shoot Chris that night, Wheat/Cythare/Seppel would be sorted the day after, and then figure out the last mafia if all flipped/cleared town.
I think this is a pretty damning post. For one thing, I don't think that GJ's in game behavior actually reflects the notion that he was 'feeling worse about ZDS as the day went on'. That feels like revisionist history. Also, I think that his aggression toward WG on Day 2 is directly due to the fact that he felt like he over-committed himself against ZDS on Day 1, particularly placing the hammer vote immediately after WG also voted ZDS.
Also, something I noticed from early in the game. Not a GJ post, but a WG one. One of the first things that WG did early on was..to vote GJ. I feel like an early scum tactic in a game like this could definitely be to try to bus a scumbuddy. In an invitational like this, you definitely need to try to get a leg up. And bussing a buddy is definitely a good way to do that. This explains the genuine frustration behind GJ's self-vote, also. Some people just don't take well to being bussed, especially in a game like this.
Anyway. I shall continue. I don't think I'll get through all of GJ's posts tonight, and I'm not making a full PBPA..I just don't have it in me, esp at 2AM. I'm just pointing out things I find interesting one way or another.
No, I'm running out of potential scum. My theory after my night rereads was Proph and Rhand for the remaining scum, and town-clearing everyone else in the game.
So let me get this straight - your first reread in the game consisted of you scumreading me based off of how I exited the GJ wagon and my vote analysis post. You did another reread on me, and towncleared me based on "genuine townie markers". And now, with Wheat flipped, you reread me again and conclude that I'm very heavily scum.
What happened to your second reread on me where you found genuine townie markers? Do you just simply discard then due to the Wheat and Rhand flips? I've never seen a townie shift reads that rapidly. I've had a bunch of instances when I've thought someone was scum and then backed off of them due to genuine posts they've made, but I don't think I've ever gone back to lynching them unless I'm re-evaluating late in the game. The way you shifted the read on me on a dime feels disingenuous, especially since you can't show me those "genuine townie markers".
Quote from Azrael »
I was a major force behind getting WG on the radar, early on d1, and pushed hard for his death throughout the mid and late phases of day 2. I had most of the town reading me (correctly) as a friendly going into the night
As I've already stated, you were not in any way a "major force" in getting Wheat on the radar. And while you pushed Wheat you never actually bothered to INTERACT with him. I feel like that's the cincher - Az never really interrogates Wheat despite Wheat being Az's top scumread.
Quote from Azrael »
Beyond those posts right before night yesterday, I was among the people responsible for running up Proph the first time on D1. I decided, for a time, that perhaps Proph was just being Proph and asking silly, useless questions. So I let it ride, to give him more to post, and see if during the latter stages of the game when there was more to talk about, he'd start becoming more natural and genuine of a read.
Last night I got around to checking on that, and he hadn't.
Why are you completely skipping over the part where you were townreading me?
Quote from Jobie »
Cyan. Let's lynch Seppel and then get Az. I'm okay with moving away from Proph. I have no idea why I wrote what I did. Proph is more on the "**** Seppel, lets lynch WG" side. I like the turn towards Az. I don't know what my ******* deal was.
Why do you think Seppel is scum? And if Az was one of your stronger town reads, then why do you want to "get Az"?
I feel like Az is more trying to criticize Cyan's methods of scumhunting rather than actually trying to defend himself.
Quote from Azrael »
Proph, I was one of the three people pushing hard for the WG lynch for the entirety of day 2, the day he actually WAS lynched. My vote was adamantly on him for the majority of the day, and I made absolutely no bones about the fact that WG was my one and only sure-fire scum read from the start of the day, right up until we began to get too close to the deadline for comfort, at which point I was more than happy to return to killing WG after rereading both options.
If you think I'm scum, then why do you feel the need to defend yourself against me?
I want to point out the fact that you delayed voting Wheat at the beginning of the Day, and only put your vote back on him when Cyan decided to move away from Wheat.
I scrape the voting data manually and then compile it using a script. I probably missed it if they didn't bold it at the start of a line because I'm lazy.
Correction, I missed the Gentleman Johnny vote because it was made while I was compiling the votecount and the Chris vote in 845 for no reason.
Updated votecount:
Votecount
(5) Wheat_Grinder - Cyan, Prophylaxis, Seppel, Gentleman Johnny, Sir Chris
(1) Prophylaxis - Wheat_Grinder
(1) Sir Chris - Rhand
You had the chance, here, to hammer Wheat at L-1 and lynch him like 48 hours into the Day. You just kept stating that Wheat was scum at the beginning of the Day WITHOUT voting him. And then you put your vote back on him once the Wheat wagon dismantled. And then you started to talk about a Seppel lynch just as pressure began to mount against him, skipping past all of Seppel's thread rereads and such.
Quote from Cyan »
Proph could have lynched Az himself and chose to just stay on WG instead, and yet...somehow that means nothing to Az. This just doesn't track.
Keep in mind that I did actually vote Az when the wagon on him was building up. I moved my vote back to Wheat when Chris defended Az.
----
I want to make another post about Az's PBPA on Seppel, but here are two things that caught my eye:
Quote from Az »
I would call this post a tier 1 town tell.^^
Very natural, a sentiment that isn't usually something the scum creatively fake, occurring outside the range of time where scum fake early town tells on purpose, fits within the context of what was going on, genuine townie emotional markers.
Highly reliable indicator of Seppel townieness, IMO.
If it's a "highly reliable indicator of Seppel towniness" then HOW IN THE WORLD DID IT TAKE YOU FOUR REREADS TO FIND IT? I completely do not understand how you convienently "miss" this post throughout your other (undocumented) Seppel rereads, then suddenly catch it on this attempt (along with a bunch of other reasons why you think Seppel is town that you missed earlier). This is just completely incomprehensible to me.
Quote from Az »
Quote from Seppel »
I'm not scare-mongering you. You're playing in a way that is so annoying that I'd rather quit than fight this basal level of posting I've seen from you.
That was your chance to take the blinders off, but you've just shown that you need to push this mislynch through to win.
Actually, wait. Who are you counting on being your third mislynch? Once I flip town, you and Wheat are going down. Then what? Chris and Johnny have an epic endgame showdown with Rhand being too busy on a cruise to pay much attention to the game, so you hope he mishammers? Maybe keep Proph alive and someone might be stupid enough to hammer him?
What is your endgame plan? How can you possibly win?
You can't.
You're already caught. You've already lost.
I buy this completely wrong-headed post as genuinely townie.
You can practically see unwritten, implied ellipses as the wheels in his mind turn as he rights the post, and the emotions are right for someone who think he's got caught scum.
If you can see the "emotions that are right for someone who think he's got caught scum", then why on earth on this post you label Seppel 100% scum?
Huh. Chris might actually be scum. I might actually have to review him.
@Chris: I don't hunt teams. I hunt players. When I hit a scum, then I can talk about teams. You say Az and Wheat can't be buddies together? I don't see that, but regardless, they're both scum to me. I see no sense in confirming additional theories of buddies until the original basis of "X is scum" is proven. They're not scum together? Great, don't care. Going off that suggestion, one of them is scum (or I suck hard at hunting), and I want to lynch one of them anyway.
Your disappointment in my Wheat case is worthless. If you actually read through it, you would see that there's only one point where he acts town, and that's near present day. I judge people based on how definitively townie I can place them. Show me the towniness, and someone is clear. I saw 1,000 posts of crap surrounding Wheat, and the notion that you're simultaneously dissing my case while still saying "uh yeah Wheat's still scum guys" is the most underhanded thing I've seen from you all game. Wheat's play throughout the entire game has been disappointing and I think it's a slam dunk case that HIS READS WERE THE SAME ON HIS SECOND POST AS THEY WERE IN POST #1000-WHATEVER.
Chris I think I just caught you. You've lost all sense and the only person so far off into space to hear you is Cyan.
Yeah, this is a scum post.
I'd still prefer to kill Wheat first, but will accept Seppel as a substitute if necessary.
"Chris, I think I just caught you" and "You're already caught. You've already lost" are close enough conviction markers in my mind and it's baffling to me why you would label one as super-scum and the other one as hard town.
Az is scum and should be lynched Today. I have no idea how he comes up with these stances as town and he has absolutely terrible interactions with Wheat.
So reading back I am feeling more comfortable with GJ being town due to Wheat interactions. It didn't quite hit me how silly it would be for Wheat to call a self-voting buddy scum randomly like he did there with GJ on page 4 until just now. Opportunistic as hell.
I do enjoy how we take the opposite stance on this, lol. We're destined to disagree, cyan.
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@Cyan: If you check my interactions post you see that I actually was kind of coming to the same conclusion.
I still think we need to lynch Az first and then evaluate based on what he flips, though. I have a hard time seeing, if GJ/Az are scum, how GJ keeping pushing Az here and Az pushes back. If Wheat flipped town, then maybe, but it just seems like an entirely too risky play with only two scum.
No, I think that this explains everything. Reading over GJ's posts, he was also more critical of Cythare yesterday than I realized as well. And this criticism would be apparent to someone as soon as they went looking for it. And it makes the modkill request make sense too. GJ was literally telling the mod to just kill his scumbuddy. In the game thread. It is the ultimate next level bus.
I honestly think that GJ resolved, after Day 1, to bus his entire scum team in order to win the game(WG was already heavily exposed and Cythare was basically a non-factor anyway. As someone that has had to carry plenty of scum teams, I can dig it). So this is what he set out to do. I mean like..look at the difference between his behavior Day 2 and Proph's. Proph has the unwavering conviction and zeal of a townie. He never relents on WG. Even when Seppel and Az are on L-1 at different moments, Proph does not move his vote. But GJ is happy to move his vote to Seppel. More than once even. Why not? If he is scum. He needs townies to die to win the game, and he can just resume bussing WG the next day anyway.
I know that this is a full 180 from what I've thought for literally the whole rest of the game, but I don't think Az or Seppel are scum any more. I think it's Jobie and GJ. We can lynch Jobie first, because he is probably the more likely of the two to be scum(and certainly fits in with more teams). But I really think I have figures this out. It just all feels like it fits perfectly, doesn't it? Unvote, Vote Jobie
Oh no, I forgot about my 'Scum Jobie would just let us kill Town Seppel' today post from earlier today. Maybe he just had a really bad oversight..hmm. Damnit.
@SC: If I read the sequence of events correctly, wasn't WG voting GJ long before he self-voted?
Cyan I don't think Wheat had even posted in the game before GJ broke out the self vote.
I mean this may have merit, because both Az and myself thought GJ was scummy at first glance before going back and looking at it from a different angle. I mean basically everyone in this game has been called town by someone for something. We don't have anyone who is just scummy mc scum scum the 4th like Wheat was. So what we need to do is tighten the town reads. I ran into this problem in Predator where I had town cleared everyone and I was like "???" until I finally thought about Wildfire's claim more.
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I was *going* to post a longer post tonight, but the main conclusion I was drawing was invalidated while I was typing so you get this stream-of-consciousness post instead.
Basically, I probably could have posted yesterday but decided not to do so because I wanted to test for a specific scenario and the easiest way to not interfere with the results was to not post for a bit. Basically, my first reaction to Rhand getting killed was that there were four plausible explanations for it:
A) Az is scum and the scumteam doesn't have a roleblocker. That's probably the same as "Az is scum" even without the Rhand kill, because I don't think Roleblocker balances with the town power roles in a scum!Az world - Bodyguard's about as weak as a town power role gets, Redirector's only strong if it redirects the scum kill, and 1-Shot Cop isn't *that* strong, full Roleblocker against that feels scumsided. I don't think scum!Az shooting Rhand makes any sense if his team has a Roleblocker -
B) Scum felt that Rhand was never being lynched, regardless of my late case D2 (and Az's suspicion, if he's town) and shot Rhand over a town analyst.
C) Scumteam decided to block Az and shoot someone other than Rhand, but Rhand blocked the kill. I think this world only exists if scum realized that a roleblock wouldn't take away Az's shot, because otherwise why *not* block Rhand?
D) Scumteam shot Rhand to frame Az (using the A line of logic above, and using Cyan's existing Az scumread to help push through the lynch). I think this makes more sense in town!Seppel worlds given that Seppel is fairly likely to get lynched anyways?
(Pulled that from the draft of the long post, hence the tense change.)
If we were in D world and the scumteam shot Rhand to frame Az, then I would expect the scum to come in and attack Az immediately toDay. So I intentionally delayed my entrance to see who would go after Proph and how.
And for a moment I thought I needed to reconsider my Proph read after Proph went after Az indirectly in 1481, and was typing up stuff related to that, but 1538 is conclusive tonally - Proph believes Az is scum, which means (barring a {Wheat, Az, Proph} scumteam, which is unlikely) that my first impression is correct and Proph is town.
I think Az might be town, too, given his entrance toDay? Now that he's actually posting, he's *finally* showing some of the tonal markers I've been looking for all game, which is what I would expect if Az was just town who didn't have time to post earlier. Not interested in pursuing him just yet, at any rate - I want to see Az's comments on a player he thinks is scum, and I'd like to see how he acts while *not* under pressure toDay, since it's *possible* that I'm just being thrown because scum!Az is on the defensive (I'm bad at reading defensive tone, and Az is good at defending himself as scum - I haven't forgotten CT3), and we can always come back to him later toDay or toMorrow if necessary. (I have one other comment on Az which I am withholding for the time being.)
If Az is in fact town, then barring a bad townread we're just in autowin? I'm town, I have townreads on Proph, Cyan, and Sir Chris; if all three of those townreads are correct and my weak townread on Az is correct then the scum are two of {GJ, Jobie, Seppel} and we have a mislynch to play with so GG. I kind of want to lynch GJ (especially since he's the *other* player who came in hard on Az toDay) or possibly Jobie toDay, mostly because I thought yesterDay that there was a pretty good chance that all three scum were in {Rhand, Wheat, GJ, Cythare} and I'd really like to be right...
So yeah. Give Az a chance to post his thoughts on Proph and GJ and generally see if he still looks town when the pressure is toned down, then lynch one of {GJ, Jobie, Seppel}.
(Sorry Cyan, you get not-terribly-invested-because-I-think-we-just-win Tar. At least you should be familiar with this after Cross-Town 2.)
Vote: Gentleman Johnny
Willing to switch onto Jobie or Seppel, but don't want to lynch just yet period so.
If nothing else GJ appeals to my ego a great deal. I would be very pleased if I spent large parts of day 1 stabbing at scum in GJ and Wheat. I remember thinking it was funny that Wheat started out suspecting GJ and over the day kept pushing him further and further down his read list. Someone disagreed with me, but I forget who now. Scum wheat starts off attacking his buddy and then over makes him less and less of a priority.
GJ/Jobie means:
a) I am right about Az
b) Seppel's ability to think critically about me is the tell I thought it was
c) my initial read of Proph's attacks on me being too bold to be scum is proven accurate
I do enjoy it when my reads work out neatly like this.
Hm... was GJ a part of both the seppel and Az counterwagons yesterday? *Checks* Seppel yes... doesn't look like he ever went adventuring on Az though, so not outwardly opportunistic.
Az' wagon as its height: (3) Azrael - Seppel, Taredas, Rhand, Proph, Cyan
...neither GJ or Cythare post before Az's wagon vanishes.
Also good lord Proph looks like he is orgasming when we go back to the WG wagon yesterday. Just reading through the transition from the Az wagon and Proph is positively giddy lol.
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Proph has the unwavering conviction and zeal of a townie. He never relents on WG. Even when Seppel and Az are on L-1 at different moments, Proph does not move his vote.
Ugh, I just feel so helpless about this lynch happening.
If we're not going to lynch Wheat, then I'm fine with lynching Azrael. He's just seeming to intentionally ignore the rest of my questions and has had a very opportunistic hop onto Seppel, citing the "mid-game phase" and a post that I thought showed strong townie tells from Seppel as a "scum post". But in no way we should lynch Seppel. His last post is a very genuine "I'm leaving, here are my reads and what we should do" post.
Unvote ; Vote : Azrael
I'll take a look at GJ, but I still strongly believe that we should be lynching Azrael first. I don't get why when I post my Az case people come out of it thinking Az is more town.
I'll take a look at GJ, but I still strongly believe that we should be lynching Azrael first. I don't get why when I post my Az case people come out of it thinking Az is more town.
Probably because most of the discrepancies you attempted to point to as scum tells have already been explained away, repeatedly.
Like, how many different times this game have I been struggling with time constraints, and discussing how heavily my reads are in flux as a result, discussing how heavily my reads flip even in normal games where I have plenty of time, and discussing the necessity of revisiting all my prior reads post-Rhand?
Also, if GJ is scum, what makes you think he wouldn't be ballsy enough to publicly call for a mod-kill on a townie as a scum gambit? He was ballsy enough to "HAAAAMMMMEEERR" as scum in plain sight D1.
By the way, the all caps scream on that post indicates to me not that GJ was "joking", but that he knew he was doing something ridiculous and stupid and daring, in finishing off a townie wagon when the scum hammer potential had already been flagged. The emotions fit someone being ballsy scum, and like Cyan, I'm very skeptical of his earlier statement on ZDS (I will not lynch ZDS over SC) and his rapid transition to hammering.
That, and his pride in his scum game indicate someone who tries to sprinkle in false-townie tells here and there, and act unexpectedly. It also looks like sometimes he tries to be too clever for his own good, though.
There is a giant issue with that theory Azreal: I am not that ballsy as scum. Look at the games I listed. Aside from Star Trek, which I started that claim from the mindset of "we probably lost" when have I ever showed a ballsy mindset as scum?
(I will not lynch ZDS over SC) and his rapid transition to hammering.
Yes. When the choice became Chris versus ZDS, it should have been obvious to anyone watching that I was reading Chris as scum, and Wheat as more town. So when the wagons became Wheat versus ZDS, a deadline on the loom, I chose ZDS. As scum though, what motive did I have to be ballsy? I could have just let Iso try to case DCIII, see what happens. I could have continued to try to get momentum back on Chris (which I thought about). Or, if I was hellbent on the bus strat, what a perfect time to solidfy the fact I didn't like ZDS over Chris, and prove that not only was I town reading Wheat, but that I saw the light (blah blah, WIFOM. I know).
Quote from Proph »
I'll take a look at GJ, but I still strongly believe that we should be lynching Azrael first. I don't get why when I post my Az case people come out of it thinking Az is more town.
I thought the case looked good (in before Az says of course I did). Az also did the exact same swing on me, calling my wagon silly townies, going back to a scum read on me end of day 1, and then back in his town pile day 2. Guess where he is now!
Quote from Cyan »
Hmmm.
I'm having a hard time making heads or tails of GJ in my review of him. But I did come across this post by him
Weren't you/DCIII the ones that asked me about the hammer, and I gave you that answer a long time ago?
This explains the genuine frustration behind GJ's self-vote, also. Some people just don't take well to being bussed, especially in a game like this.
What does a game like this matter? It is a mafia game that people voted on to play. Why add all the grandeur to it?
No, I think that this explains everything. Reading over GJ's posts, he was also more critical of Cythare yesterday than I realized as well. And this criticism would be apparent to someone as soon as they went looking for it. And it makes the modkill request make sense too. GJ was literally telling the mod to just kill his scumbuddy. In the game thread. It is the ultimate next level bus.
Take the bolded completely out of this game's context: I would never never ever ask for a mod kill to attempt to look more townie, regardless of my alignment, and I am revolted that you think I would do that. That reeks of out of game shenanigans, and if I truly felt like modkilling off a buddy, I would asked Ged about it in private. I loathe lurkers and replacements, both in games I play and host. "End rant"
Back in game, I was having a hard time wrapping my brain around 3 people. I think I ended day 1 thinking Chris + one of the PRs (likely Iso) were the last two scum. I was fairly confidant in my Proph town, and leaning town on Seppel. With Iso dead, that meant that Chris, one of the other PRs, and mystery man were my reads. Cythare was the one that came back to me, since after analyzing who went after me, he was super vocal about me being scum, but very unwilling to lay down votes.
You are also claiming that despite a decent amount of pressure on me, and less on Cythare and Wheat, I was going to be the primary busser, despite heavily clinging to my buddy Wheat day 1, and then decided to bus him after being so sure ZDS was scum over him? Wheat bussing me would have looked much better in this situation.
And a scum team with me and Jobie would still make zero sense with a town Seppel. All I had to do was literally let Seppel die, get azreal the day after, and I could STILL go after Jobie either day without anyone thinking different about me. Jobie had the ultimate clean slate to start where ever he wanted, could have been Seppel first and he chose to go after Proph. Even lynching Jobie before Seppel would have likely ended in my victory. Why would I muddy the waters, just to be ballsy for the sake of ballsy?
More when I get off of lunch. Time to deal with Angry Mr. A
Inactivity isn't really a problem in terms of alignment determining. Its moreso PoE at this point (I like PoE) and also the fact that Cythare did a great job of saying nothing memorable at when he did say stuff. But yeah really it isn't as if the slot has been scummy so much as so many people have so many reasons to be town in my head and then there's that slot and it's a great big 'nope.'
Also, if GJ is scum, what makes you think he wouldn't be ballsy enough to publicly call for a mod-kill on a townie as a scum gambit? He was ballsy enough to "HAAAAMMMMEEERR" as scum in plain sight D1.
... You know, I was very ill wednesday night/yesterday and I am at work so I don't have time to look it up but did I say this? Because I don't remember saying this, and that should worry me I think.
By the way GJ you claim to be a very good scum player but now when we consider the level of balls you could have you claim that is not in your playbook. I consider it a requirement of good scum to be ballsy, how ballsy is a matter of interpretation I guess but yeah.
Not lynching Az/Cyan/Taredas/Proph today btw. Proph can be scum but only with Seppel so Seppel goes first every time there. I kicked the Az tires and while I think he is a bit silly I really and truly do not see the scum mindset here. Especially when he is all like "hey guys Seppel is totally town" out of nowhere which has no value as scum because frankly all it does is make me love him more and I already loved him.
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So you guys haven't really wanted to go along with any lynch that I wanted to push(or at least, I had to drag you along tooth and nail, and at this point it seems like all of them would have been a bad idea), but now everyone kind of wants to vote for GJ, despite no one ever saying anything meaningful about him before this(well, it looks like Taredas might have been starting to yesterday)? Like just..what? This should make me happy, but ostensibly it means we're all on the same page, but really it makes me kind of uneasy.
I still think I want to see this through, but now I'm a little less enthusiastic about it. Unvote, Vote GJ
By the way GJ you claim to be a very good scum player but now when we consider the level of balls you could have you claim that is not in your playbook. I consider it a requirement of good scum to be ballsy, how ballsy is a matter of interpretation I guess but yeah.
Star Trek was a game where literally every member of the scum team was being read as scum by multiple people, and I needed a very good reason to not be PoEed out, and I had a good justification for what is retrospect was a pretty ballsy claim. Being ballsy for the sake of being ballsy when I could have literally coasted to victory as scum with Jobie seems wrong?
Hardcore bussing is definitely in my default line of scum plays, but bussing a player I was strongly reading as town day 1, and then flipping on him after momentum picks up?
Didn't you just literally pointed out how it was damn near impossible that a town Seppel wouldn't have just been buried by an Az/Jobie scum team. How does that suddenly become possible with a GJ/Jobie team?
So you guys haven't really wanted to go along with any lynch that I wanted to push(or at least, I had to drag you along tooth and nail, and at this point it seems like all of them would have been a bad idea), but now everyone kind of wants to vote for GJ, despite no one ever saying anything meaningful about him before this(well, it looks like Taredas might have been starting to yesterday)? Like just..what? This should make me happy, but ostensibly it means we're all on the same page, but really it makes me kind of uneasy.
I still think I want to see this through, but now I'm a little less enthusiastic about it. Unvote, Vote GJ
I sincerely hope this is not referring to me or I may have to hurt you.
Star Trek was a game where literally every member of the scum team was being read as scum by multiple people, and I needed a very good reason to not be PoEed out, and I had a good justification for what is retrospect was a pretty ballsy claim. Being ballsy for the sake of being ballsy when I could have literally coasted to victory as scum with Jobie seems wrong?
Hardcore bussing is definitely in my default line of scum plays, but bussing a player I was strongly reading as town day 1, and then flipping on him after momentum picks up?
I see, so its not the balls its the sloppiness.
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I had to claim a role that I could justify not being useless, yet exist alongside a potential cop, and have a good justification for not getting nightkilled that doesn't appear overtly scummy. I'd like to see you do better in that situation.
In this game, I would have had to be purposefully sloppy going into today to justify a scum team of me and Jobie, where I could have suggested Jobie died first today, and STILL won the game after Az and Seppel bit it.
I just said the problem with the theory of you being scum this game from your perspective is not that you lack the balls but rather it is too sloppy to be your scum game. What are you even going on about?
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Imagine for a moment you are poor scum GJ (as in, pitiable, not a poor scum player calm down GJ don't bite me!) just trying to do his best on a scum team that consists of Wheat and Cythare. What depths of despair would be needed to pull out a victory with that mess of a scum team. Would anything be off the table?
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In that situation, I probably don't claim vanilla.
Whatever it took though. If I did decide to go vanilla though, I would be damn sure all my actions made sense though. I am just as much vanilla fodder as everyone else day 1.
I understand where you are coming from: nothing is impossible if I felt I was drunk, but going into night 2, how would scum me/cythare not think that this game was snagged? Cyan even stated he would consider taredas as an outside 4th.
@GJ: Alright, you wouldn't use an OOG element to your advantage as scum. So be it. That doesn't change that much.
How does that suddenly become possible with a GJ/Jobie team?
Shrug, fine. Jobie doesn't have to be scum for you to be scum, it's just a nice fit.
Like..your whole self-defense to all of this is basically 'Well WIFOM'. That is really underwhelming.
Imagine for a moment you are poor scum GJ (as in, pitiable, not a poor scum player calm down GJ don't bite me!) just trying to do his best on a scum team that consists of Wheat and Cythare. What depths of despair would be needed to pull out a victory with that mess of a scum team. Would anything be off the table?
Imagine for a moment you are poor scum GJ (as in, pitiable, not a poor scum player calm down GJ don't bite me!) just trying to do his best on a scum team that consists of Wheat and Cythare. What depths of despair would be needed to pull out a victory with that mess of a scum team. Would anything be off the table?
No, you would have to bus them into oblivion, which is, you know, exactly what he tried to do. Even with a mislynch Day 1, if this was the exact scum team, I wouldn't be feeling great about my chances. Actively bussing Cythare would be difficult because, you know, you can't actually lynch someone that isn't around to respond to you and get lynched.
To be fair going into night 2 I believe Cythare had already requested a replacement. His activity, to me, was independent of his alignment.
Just trying to puzzle it out. If my town reads are accurate we're fine. If my town reads are not accurate we're not fine, is what it boils down to. My town reads tend to have a very high clear rate. My town reads are supported by people being on the right side of history, to boot. Like the names Proph/Az have been bounced around and both decided to try to stick a fork into Wheat day one. That matters to me. It wasn't expedient and it wasn't required and yet they were there with me day one. Cythare wasn't. You weren't. Seppel wasn't. It matters. Voting a town over a scum day one matter and the attempt to dilute that simple fact is something I find very troubling. Mafia is a simple game made complex, some things are simple.
I keep coming back to that 7-4 split. I keep reading over how it went down. Either you screwed up or you wanted everyone to think you screwed up, and its my job to figure out which. You did yourself no favors by admitting your own cleverness, I take your word on that.
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A deadline has been set for Tuesday, December 1st at 5pm CST.
Cythare has officially asked to be replaced, meaning I am now in full on search for a replacement.
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Can GJ be scum with anyone BUT Cythare? Like..could Seppel still be scum here? That would also explain GJ's willingness to switch between wagon's toward the end of yesterday. He was just going to bus one of his scumbuddies, so..who cares which one?
Can GJ and AZ be scum? I don't think that makes sense. And it doesn't line up with the idea that GJ was trying to peddle where Seppel/AZ was a viable team. I guess it's just a means to an end to getting Az lynched today, and then tomorrow he can fall back on 'well Seppel is still scum, let's go all aboard'?
I still can't get over how awful Az's play today is. I just can't shake it. His vote on Proph today is so, so, so scummy. On a scale of 1-10, it is 1 Million. Or more. It is inexcusably bad. I am trying so hard to give him a pass because Sir Chris has so much faith in him but like..I just can't get away from it. I just cannot see town motivation here for Az to make this vote. I just can't. I have honestly tried SO hard. And I just don't see it.
This game is completely infuriating to me. God Iso, which did you actually redirect me N1. Why couldn't you just let your ego get the better of you this one time and figure you could fend off my suspicions on Day 2 and let me investigation on Az go through. Goddamnit. God ******* damnit.
**** all of this, it's time to go back to the original plan. The one that made the most sense yesterday, and explains why we couldn't get ANY lynch to work. Unvote, Vote Seppel
I still am not connecting the dots where you dropped Seppel as a potential scum read, even with you being wrong about Rhand.
That is a complete misrep and you know it. I said I was pretty sure, and if seppel does flip scum, you could be town. My original team was WG/Seppel/Cythare, or WG/Seppel/Az.
I don't think anyone aside from you felt that way about Rhand. Cyan was also just as unlynchable, and a lot stronger of a player.
The nightkills are pretty obvious at this stage. Who else aside from you would have legitimately considered a Rhand lynch?
Except that that spins an entirely different circumstance than what Jobie accused of him. Instead of "distancing" from WG, only to go at him when it was inevitable, Proph was hardcore hunting him until he flipped, with little flexibility in Seppel.
Why so passive aggressive in this? To answer your question, I was curious if the mafia targeted Rhand outright, or if died by mistake. If you are claiming the RB was used on you, than what likely happened was Rhand protected Cyan.
The fact that you need to point that out is really reeking of desperation. You weren't pushing that hard if you didn't care whether Seppel or WG died.
Mostly process of elimination. Due to the opening votes, I am having a hard time seeing an Az/Jobie scum team. If those two are scum, it makes too much sense from a perspective to let a town Seppel get away for a day. Unless they thought they could convince you on Proph today, and then Seppel tomorrow, but that seems long a ridiculous longshot, and a chance to draw ire which neither one of them needed.
As far as other scum games, aside from Star Trek, Basic 28, Basic 32, Basic 37, Basic 42, Neon Genesis, CCMV, Flame Warriors, Ozone Underground, and Gotham
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Because the order didn't really matter to me. Even after his cases, I had a hard time reading how he got to some of his reads. His read on me felt very weird where he put in a bunch of things, calling my defense tight, but then saying he was null. He did pump out a lot of work, but I can't see how he was null, and not scum/leaning scum on me, or how he wasn't scum/null on Cythare.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
No, cyan, I am not going to stop, because after this game I want you to look back -
*takes a deep breath*
I liked you much better when you realized how wrong you were.
I'm done with you for a few hours at least, otherwise I'm going to bite your head off, and I'd prefer to bite your head off...courteously.
Of course you did.
By the way I am a data monster, pretty much. I eat things and process them as they come to me. I am not doubting myself, I am thinking. I get paranoid when I am out on an island by myself on an issue. Then the kill happens and it's a bit of a weird kill. Then you say stuff like this and it worries me. You have a metric ton in your favor as far as I am concerned but I am not the sort to just ignore things around intelligent players. Stupid players I can call town, throw them in a fridge, and forget about them. Intelligent players demand constant watching. I think you're starting to crack a bit today, but that can happen to town just as easily as it can scum.
See I think this is just delusional enough to make you town, for example. Like I want to say literally everyone aside from me wants you dead and I basically corpse dragged you through yesterday and instead of having any appreciation for the amount of effort it has taken me to sway people you trample around the topic as if you've done anything of note to aid your own survival other than having me be in the topic with you.
Like really there's just a certain... something that I have to think is town because it is so beyond the pale in its recklessness.
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And then Azrael just double barrels it? Like..what in the actual **** is happening there? This is just unreal sloppy. I was honestly ready to give Az a second chance after yesterday, but this post was soooooooooo bad. Like fatally bad. I'm going to re-read him, but I know when I get to this post it is just going to make me steam all over again, because it is so miserable. But I digress.
I'm trying to work out the rest of this.
If Seppel is town..then..what? Does Jobie just really run up in here all gung ho going for someone else as scum? I have a hard time accepting this. Even if it does setup tomorrow as lynch or lose day. Did he really think a bunch of other people were just going to say 'hey you're right, we'll just lynch the guy that made the scum lynch happen yesterday, you got it!'. I can't believe this. And after how well Jobie did as scum recently in AG, I'm having a hard time believing that he would make this error. He seems craftier than this right now, even though I acknowledge that he just replaced in and a scum just died.
However. If Seppel is scum, then the situation is much, much different, and makes sense. Now, they need to create a lynch SOMEWHERE, but they can't really just go after the same person without being extremely obvious. But at the same time, they don't really have that many options either. Seppel can continue to go after Az like he started to do yesterday, and Jobie can try to poke holes..whereever he can, which apparently he erronously decided was Proph(probably should have picked GJ).
I still can't shake how much it bothers me that Az just piled on the second vote here. Like..holy crap that is just so unbelievably scummy, especially when Proph stuck on WG so much yesterday. Proph could have lynched Az himself and chose to just stay on WG instead, and yet...somehow that means nothing to Az. This just doesn't track.
I think Seppel is the correct lynch for today, and that is how we should proceed. If he flips town, we will have to re-evaluate. Some of what Az has said recently sounds sincere, but then he certainly knows how to fake that when he needs to. The things that he has said in the moments where he wasn't trying to fake it are what concerns me.
I'm just going to assume that you're currently incapable of seeing things from any perspective aside from your own, and lead by example.
Mass rereads/PBPAs incoming.
Healthy town paranoia to start with.
A fairly townish type of concern. So far, so good. Either natural townish responses, or good faking.
Self-consistent with first post.
Hmm. I don't think I have a problem with any of this.
*thinks* No problem with this either.
Like the way he deals with this Proph argument.
The reasoning on this Chris read is very sharp, very thoughtful. Not likely to be faked.
This is a post where Seppel starts going off the rails, in terms of anti-town effect.
*scans over* The trick is figuring out if he genuinely came to hold those views, or if it's a cover. Hmm.
I wonder if Seppel's read on Iso here, and his read on me later, are the results of his relationships with us. Like, ordinarily, I do fall into the precise pattern of either buddying Seppel hard and following up on his reads, asking his opinion, etc. when I'm convinced he's town. Sometimes, even when I'm not town. And for a number of reasons, that hasn't really happened this game. Inactivity, Seppel's reads being bonkers IMO, and a lack of a fully researched read, primarily.
Not sure where the town-read on WG came from,that was never well-documented. But his scum-read on WG from earlier wasn't something he was seriously committed to, either.
I suppose I can't really fault him for his logic on viewing Iso as the foil to all the other power roles. It's a logic that makes sense, if you start with the assumption that Ged isn't going to play mind games with you. Which is a silly assumption to make, as it happens, but not really one I can blame him for.
Personally, I'm increasingly gravitating towards GJ and Proph as my prime suspects. Seps town-reads GJ here, but I think a lot of us were at that point, so again, not much to fault him for here really.
I don't like his trajectory, but I understand how he got there. : /
*sigh* Seppel killing off ZDS.
*thinks*
With Seps thinking that WG was likely town, and ZDS lurking as hard as he was, and Seppel making comments regarding that (omitted from my PBPA), this flows pretty naturally.
First time Seps starts to look askance at me, since he doesn't understand that I took his statement as a proposal, rather than a warning.
Yeah, I can't blame him for any of these reactions, given his starting assumptions. And they don't seem faked.
Retaliatory vote on ZDS for ZDS saying seppel's clueless on scum-reads. A pretty cheeky Seppel-ism. Bad play, but consistent with his personality.
I would call this post a tier 1 town tell.^^
Very natural, a sentiment that isn't usually something the scum creatively fake, occurring outside the range of time where scum fake early town tells on purpose, fits within the context of what was going on, genuine townie emotional markers.
Highly reliable indicator of Seppel townieness, IMO.
lol
Replying to Rhand,referring to WG being town. Very, very wrong, but completely brash and natural about it.
That sentence might sum up Seppel's play this game in general.
Seppel refusing to accept ZDS's genuine explanation for lack of activity. Anti-town but not scummy. That does need an acroynm or catch-phrase or something.
Seppel still failing to realize the obvious mislynch. *head shake*
Hey, Seppel actually voting scum for a change! (Going along with my crusade vs WG)
Sticking on WG. The "double buddying" thing of cozying up to me and Chris is worth noting. Minor down-tick.
Feel his pain re: Proph.
*thumbs up*
Pretty much where I was at, on that day, for scum-reads.
Back when he had a correct read on me. Aside from the correctness, which I'm obviously partial towards, it shows him organically drawing conclusions off his declared reads. +Town
Disagree...don't think I blame.
Here's where Seppel went off the rails on me. I still feel this attack was perfectly fine initially, but absolutely horrendous after I provided the explanation of what I was actually trying to accomplish there, tricksy-like, in muddying the waters surrounding my own claim and protecting Chris in the bargain. But Seppel kind of gets the bit in his teeth and never reexamines his initial assumption after that.
Correct that I was lying, incorrect about the reasons why.
This was particularly dense of him. (Can't understand why I was angry that Iso singlehandedly destroyed all our abilities.)
This in response to my statement that instead of lynching ZDS or Chris, I wanted to lynch actual scum. Perhaps I can get someone to commission an "I told you so" smilie?
*I'm gonna skip over some PBPAS*
Except for this one, on Proph:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/640720-the-2015-mtgs-mafia-invitational-day-3?page=22#c1063
Which I adore - at least the first half of it. He kind of has a traumatic brain injury at some point in the 2nd half and his read flips around. This was a good part of what got the ball rolling on flipping my read against Proph; I went from my Seppel reread directly into reading Proph next.
This line by Proph that Seppel highlighted:
"I played with him in True Name Mafia and I remembered that he was advocating pressure on Az D1, so it felt weird to me that he would advocate himself as the "best Az reader". I'm unsure if he's scum yet - just trying to sort out an inconsistency."
- screams scum.
Disagree on this- I like neither the questions, the responses, nor the made-up quantitative, quasi-statistical analysis he's posting which are comically manipulable, and full of logic errors.
Here's the bit where Seps train of reasoning suddenly jumps the tracks to illogical-ville, once again. None of these reads, and their 10,000 weaselly qualifiers, actually foreclose Proph from changing his mind later.
And the actual reads Proph has at this point - WG, ZDS, and Chris, in that order, are absolutely terrible. WG as his token scum in the least suspicious position, then two strong townie analysts who no one in their right mind should have been reading as scum by the end of the day. Both the content and the way Proph describes his reads in that post scream textbook scum.
As far as Seppel is concerned though, I'd argue *insert anti-town but not scummy catchphrase here*.
I'm guessing this is why Seps isn't likely to come to his senses and back off on me. He's still stuck in the bad logic loop that made him falsely scum-read Iso as well, instead of looking at the players' behavior in isolation from their claims.
This, RE: WG.
Completely townish sentiment,here, and throughout the balance of the PBPA on Wheat.
I buy this completely wrong-headed post as genuinely townie.
You can practically see unwritten, implied ellipses as the wheels in his mind turn as he rights the post, and the emotions are right for someone who think he's got caught scum.
Oh, yuck. So much yuck.
Yeah...you're gonna need to work on that.
My impressions are increasingly solidifying against Proph, and GJ. You almost got Proph correct, Seps. You just weirdly talked yourself out of it. And I don't think you actually ever did your PBPA on GJ, and I think perhaps you should have.
TL; DR: Seppel is hard town, and I will fight you if you want to kill him.
He is very wrong, very repeatedly at times, but you can trace the chain of reasoning behind it link by link every step of the way. And he had a ton of pro-town tells buried in various places that passed most of us by as innocuous the first go-around.
Next up, Proph, and GJ (aka, the scum).
Because honestly, I feel like many/most of us got that way by simply looking at his bonkers reads on iso and ZDS and Chris, but ignored how he got there in the first place, failed to look for his town tells (and they're painfully obvious once you look hard enough), and have been looking at null seppel-isms such as his brashness and inattention to detail (Cyan's claim, etc.) as inauthentic.
Like, its a little weird that he keeps forgetting it, but I don't see a good reason to chalk up to malice what can be easily explained by a simple mistake/flub, to heavily corrupt a Napoleonic saying.
I think a scum jobie and a town jobie are equally capable of not reading the game well and misunderstanding circumstance. I mean we assume a scum Jobie has a full idea of the game state but he replaced in the middle of the night, it needn't be the case. Also Jobie is sly as scum, we both know it, I think you're way too quick to just write him off. I view his opening as pretty null all things considered with maybe a lean on trying to sound too crazy and wacky to be scum. Could be as simple as Seppel is scum and Jobie really is being sincere though.
Okay so we have a problem Az. Namely that if Seppel is town I do not buy Proph as scum. It just doesn't add up with how much he kept stumping Seppel yesterday. He defended him again and again. So for you to be like "Seppel is town!" and then go "Proph is a scum candidate!" is not something I can agree with. Also it just seems like you were chomping to give Seppel a pass. You literally declared an RVS post 'healthy town paranoia' I mean that could not have been more rubber stamped. One of the big things I agree with is his thoughts on me coming off as genuine, I will grant you that and also sure he has stayed within the boundaries of space and time for the most part. Don't agree that his Wheat switch was organic though, and have absolutely no idea how you can think that. His switch to Wheat, when he was hard defending him to 'sure', was as inorganic as can be.
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Endorse and reraise. Factual errors are the very definition of null tells.
Where did Seppel ever hard-defend Wheat? He made a 2-3 scattered comments on wheat being town, very early in the game, but when the time came for serious pressure to start assembling on Wheat, he was right there with me and the handful of others who were pushing strongly for it, and never backed off of that stance.
I put a lot of stick in RVS post analysis, actually. The jokes that people make at the start of the game, the patterns that people's minds run to when they're trying to figure out how to be themselves in a game in a vacuum without content, can be extremely useful to read. Seppel's mind going instantly towards "Sir Chris is going to be tough to read this game because he's an awesome scum player" is a pretty classic townie pattern. Fakeable? Of course. But still encouraging.
As for Proph, I'll reserve commenting on him in-depth until I've had a thorough chance to read the motivations behind his stances, but I find it far, far less interesting what someone's position was, compared to WHY they hold that position. In a situation where WG is a sure-fire bus, and Seppel is a sure-fire lynch with or without Proph's assistance, I have no problems envisioning scum-Proph being interested in sprucing up his record for town-cred. If the town is going to kill someone with or without you, then hell yeah, it's textbook scum play to go along with it to pick up the town-cred.
Also I put nothing in RVS analysis. Absolutely nothing and I think it is an error to do so, Az. That's just staring into the abyss hoping something doesn't stare back and I have my severe doubts it has worked well for you over the years, but I guess that's whatever. Then again I've never even tried to look into such patterns so maybe? I just... well in fairness I hadn't even heard of RVS before coming here, so maybe.
Also if Proph literally chose to bus his buddy over killing a town Seppel as scum then Proph is like the dumbest scum player of all time lol. Like that would be such an incredibly hard bus.
But yeah please respond to the seppel/wheat thing because I just think you've bumped your head man.
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Sort of. Seppel can come down hard on reads, he's done it plenty of times this game. He came down on both me and Wheat like a ton of bricks.
I wish he had been on the right side of the debate day one, and I suppose you could say that he indirectly defended Wheat by pushing on ZDS quite so hard as he did, but I read that as more of an indirect consequence of his bad read on ZDS, than I read it as an intentional effort to avoid killing Wheat. There's very little signs of him being nervous or hesitant about killing off WG just as soon as the ZDS was eliminated from the picture.
Yeah, you might want to look into that. There was a game where I once caught Seppel as scum at post #8 due to RVS analysis. I know another player who I very much respect who is fond of saying that you can catch scum based on how they respond to questions about their favorite movies. And he's right about that. RVS can give you some very useful information.
There are a lot of different philosophies on how to play scum out there, and they can lead people to make choices like these precisely to set up the town for this exact argument. That's pretty much the entire reason why the term town-cred even exists.
If you know the town will read you as town if only you take action X, there's a pretty fair argument for taking action x to manipulate their perceptions, particularly if you take a long enough view to realize that even if WG survived that day, he wouldn't be surviving very much longer. I'm not sure why you think that's such a hard sell.
At the point a buddy of mine is a major lynch wagon, and at the point I've gone on record since day one that I suspect that person, am I going to continue to hold that stance, or am I going to deviate at the last instant in hopes that the town won't see that inconsistency, lynch my buddy tomorrow anyways, and then lynch me after that?
Sir Chris is pretty obviously town. Looking at this wagon, if GJ isn't scum, that means there was only one scum on the wagon, so one of the others should have found there way onto it. It's also important to note that Seppel posted 12 hours after this post, when no votes had changed. I am quickly losing any hope that he is scum. Because if he were, I *really* think he would have stuck his vote here, which would have put SC at L-1, and just forced the wagon to topple over essentially. It's worth taking that risk to get a player of SC's caliber lynched.
But anyway. This is about GJ. He ultimately hammered ZDS, despite having said virtually nothing about him before that.
At one point, he flatly told us:
His sum total content on the ZDS wagon BEFORE hammering was:
Then WG places the 6th vote on ZDS, and GJ just insta-hammers him a short time later. It looks pretty awful now, in retro-spect.
It's definitely enough to make me go back and look at all of his posts.
There is also this gem, from WG:
Scum always seem to include a scumbuddy in their T/S lists for some reason. We know it wasn't ZDS. I don't believe it is SC or Proph. That only leaves GJ. And having it be the guy that is 'leaning scum' makes more sense anyway.
So I'm gning to fully review GJ now. It would be great if someone else(this means you, Sir Chris, just to be clear, because I don't trust anyone else that much, except maybe Taredas, but he just decided to replace in and post at the absolute minimum acceptable level, so..).
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I'm having a hard time making heads or tails of GJ in my review of him. But I did come across this post by him.
I think this is a pretty damning post. For one thing, I don't think that GJ's in game behavior actually reflects the notion that he was 'feeling worse about ZDS as the day went on'. That feels like revisionist history. Also, I think that his aggression toward WG on Day 2 is directly due to the fact that he felt like he over-committed himself against ZDS on Day 1, particularly placing the hammer vote immediately after WG also voted ZDS.
Also, something I noticed from early in the game. Not a GJ post, but a WG one. One of the first things that WG did early on was..to vote GJ. I feel like an early scum tactic in a game like this could definitely be to try to bus a scumbuddy. In an invitational like this, you definitely need to try to get a leg up. And bussing a buddy is definitely a good way to do that. This explains the genuine frustration behind GJ's self-vote, also. Some people just don't take well to being bussed, especially in a game like this.
Anyway. I shall continue. I don't think I'll get through all of GJ's posts tonight, and I'm not making a full PBPA..I just don't have it in me, esp at 2AM. I'm just pointing out things I find interesting one way or another.
So let me get this straight - your first reread in the game consisted of you scumreading me based off of how I exited the GJ wagon and my vote analysis post. You did another reread on me, and towncleared me based on "genuine townie markers". And now, with Wheat flipped, you reread me again and conclude that I'm very heavily scum.
What happened to your second reread on me where you found genuine townie markers? Do you just simply discard then due to the Wheat and Rhand flips? I've never seen a townie shift reads that rapidly. I've had a bunch of instances when I've thought someone was scum and then backed off of them due to genuine posts they've made, but I don't think I've ever gone back to lynching them unless I'm re-evaluating late in the game. The way you shifted the read on me on a dime feels disingenuous, especially since you can't show me those "genuine townie markers".
As I've already stated, you were not in any way a "major force" in getting Wheat on the radar. And while you pushed Wheat you never actually bothered to INTERACT with him. I feel like that's the cincher - Az never really interrogates Wheat despite Wheat being Az's top scumread.
Why are you completely skipping over the part where you were townreading me?
Why do you think Seppel is scum? And if Az was one of your stronger town reads, then why do you want to "get Az"?
I feel like Az is more trying to criticize Cyan's methods of scumhunting rather than actually trying to defend himself.
If you think I'm scum, then why do you feel the need to defend yourself against me?
I want to point out the fact that you delayed voting Wheat at the beginning of the Day, and only put your vote back on him when Cyan decided to move away from Wheat.
You had the chance, here, to hammer Wheat at L-1 and lynch him like 48 hours into the Day. You just kept stating that Wheat was scum at the beginning of the Day WITHOUT voting him. And then you put your vote back on him once the Wheat wagon dismantled. And then you started to talk about a Seppel lynch just as pressure began to mount against him, skipping past all of Seppel's thread rereads and such.
Keep in mind that I did actually vote Az when the wagon on him was building up. I moved my vote back to Wheat when Chris defended Az.
----
I want to make another post about Az's PBPA on Seppel, but here are two things that caught my eye:
If it's a "highly reliable indicator of Seppel towniness" then HOW IN THE WORLD DID IT TAKE YOU FOUR REREADS TO FIND IT? I completely do not understand how you convienently "miss" this post throughout your other (undocumented) Seppel rereads, then suddenly catch it on this attempt (along with a bunch of other reasons why you think Seppel is town that you missed earlier). This is just completely incomprehensible to me.
If you can see the "emotions that are right for someone who think he's got caught scum", then why on earth on this post you label Seppel 100% scum?
"Chris, I think I just caught you" and "You're already caught. You've already lost" are close enough conviction markers in my mind and it's baffling to me why you would label one as super-scum and the other one as hard town.
Az is scum and should be lynched Today. I have no idea how he comes up with these stances as town and he has absolutely terrible interactions with Wheat.
I do enjoy how we take the opposite stance on this, lol. We're destined to disagree, cyan.
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I still think we need to lynch Az first and then evaluate based on what he flips, though. I have a hard time seeing, if GJ/Az are scum, how GJ keeping pushing Az here and Az pushes back. If Wheat flipped town, then maybe, but it just seems like an entirely too risky play with only two scum.
I honestly think that GJ resolved, after Day 1, to bus his entire scum team in order to win the game(WG was already heavily exposed and Cythare was basically a non-factor anyway. As someone that has had to carry plenty of scum teams, I can dig it). So this is what he set out to do. I mean like..look at the difference between his behavior Day 2 and Proph's. Proph has the unwavering conviction and zeal of a townie. He never relents on WG. Even when Seppel and Az are on L-1 at different moments, Proph does not move his vote. But GJ is happy to move his vote to Seppel. More than once even. Why not? If he is scum. He needs townies to die to win the game, and he can just resume bussing WG the next day anyway.
I know that this is a full 180 from what I've thought for literally the whole rest of the game, but I don't think Az or Seppel are scum any more. I think it's Jobie and GJ. We can lynch Jobie first, because he is probably the more likely of the two to be scum(and certainly fits in with more teams). But I really think I have figures this out. It just all feels like it fits perfectly, doesn't it? Unvote, Vote Jobie
@SC: If I read the sequence of events correctly, wasn't WG voting GJ long before he self-voted?
I mean this may have merit, because both Az and myself thought GJ was scummy at first glance before going back and looking at it from a different angle. I mean basically everyone in this game has been called town by someone for something. We don't have anyone who is just scummy mc scum scum the 4th like Wheat was. So what we need to do is tighten the town reads. I ran into this problem in Predator where I had town cleared everyone and I was like "???" until I finally thought about Wildfire's claim more.
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Basically, I probably could have posted yesterday but decided not to do so because I wanted to test for a specific scenario and the easiest way to not interfere with the results was to not post for a bit. Basically, my first reaction to Rhand getting killed was that there were four plausible explanations for it:
A) Az is scum and the scumteam doesn't have a roleblocker. That's probably the same as "Az is scum" even without the Rhand kill, because I don't think Roleblocker balances with the town power roles in a scum!Az world - Bodyguard's about as weak as a town power role gets, Redirector's only strong if it redirects the scum kill, and 1-Shot Cop isn't *that* strong, full Roleblocker against that feels scumsided. I don't think scum!Az shooting Rhand makes any sense if his team has a Roleblocker -
B) Scum felt that Rhand was never being lynched, regardless of my late case D2 (and Az's suspicion, if he's town) and shot Rhand over a town analyst.
C) Scumteam decided to block Az and shoot someone other than Rhand, but Rhand blocked the kill. I think this world only exists if scum realized that a roleblock wouldn't take away Az's shot, because otherwise why *not* block Rhand?
D) Scumteam shot Rhand to frame Az (using the A line of logic above, and using Cyan's existing Az scumread to help push through the lynch). I think this makes more sense in town!Seppel worlds given that Seppel is fairly likely to get lynched anyways?
(Pulled that from the draft of the long post, hence the tense change.)
If we were in D world and the scumteam shot Rhand to frame Az, then I would expect the scum to come in and attack Az immediately toDay. So I intentionally delayed my entrance to see who would go after Proph and how.
And for a moment I thought I needed to reconsider my Proph read after Proph went after Az indirectly in 1481, and was typing up stuff related to that, but 1538 is conclusive tonally - Proph believes Az is scum, which means (barring a {Wheat, Az, Proph} scumteam, which is unlikely) that my first impression is correct and Proph is town.
I think Az might be town, too, given his entrance toDay? Now that he's actually posting, he's *finally* showing some of the tonal markers I've been looking for all game, which is what I would expect if Az was just town who didn't have time to post earlier. Not interested in pursuing him just yet, at any rate - I want to see Az's comments on a player he thinks is scum, and I'd like to see how he acts while *not* under pressure toDay, since it's *possible* that I'm just being thrown because scum!Az is on the defensive (I'm bad at reading defensive tone, and Az is good at defending himself as scum - I haven't forgotten CT3), and we can always come back to him later toDay or toMorrow if necessary. (I have one other comment on Az which I am withholding for the time being.)
If Az is in fact town, then barring a bad townread we're just in autowin? I'm town, I have townreads on Proph, Cyan, and Sir Chris; if all three of those townreads are correct and my weak townread on Az is correct then the scum are two of {GJ, Jobie, Seppel} and we have a mislynch to play with so GG. I kind of want to lynch GJ (especially since he's the *other* player who came in hard on Az toDay) or possibly Jobie toDay, mostly because I thought yesterDay that there was a pretty good chance that all three scum were in {Rhand, Wheat, GJ, Cythare} and I'd really like to be right...
So yeah. Give Az a chance to post his thoughts on Proph and GJ and generally see if he still looks town when the pressure is toned down, then lynch one of {GJ, Jobie, Seppel}.
(Sorry Cyan, you get not-terribly-invested-because-I-think-we-just-win Tar. At least you should be familiar with this after Cross-Town 2.)
Vote: Gentleman Johnny
Willing to switch onto Jobie or Seppel, but don't want to lynch just yet period so.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
GJ/Jobie means:
a) I am right about Az
b) Seppel's ability to think critically about me is the tell I thought it was
c) my initial read of Proph's attacks on me being too bold to be scum is proven accurate
I do enjoy it when my reads work out neatly like this.
Hm... was GJ a part of both the seppel and Az counterwagons yesterday? *Checks* Seppel yes... doesn't look like he ever went adventuring on Az though, so not outwardly opportunistic.
Az' wagon as its height: (3) Azrael - Seppel, Taredas, Rhand, Proph, Cyan
...neither GJ or Cythare post before Az's wagon vanishes.
Also good lord Proph looks like he is orgasming when we go back to the WG wagon yesterday. Just reading through the transition from the Az wagon and Proph is positively giddy lol.
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I'll take a look at GJ, but I still strongly believe that we should be lynching Azrael first. I don't get why when I post my Az case people come out of it thinking Az is more town.
Probably because most of the discrepancies you attempted to point to as scum tells have already been explained away, repeatedly.
Like, how many different times this game have I been struggling with time constraints, and discussing how heavily my reads are in flux as a result, discussing how heavily my reads flip even in normal games where I have plenty of time, and discussing the necessity of revisiting all my prior reads post-Rhand?
Also, if GJ is scum, what makes you think he wouldn't be ballsy enough to publicly call for a mod-kill on a townie as a scum gambit? He was ballsy enough to "HAAAAMMMMEEERR" as scum in plain sight D1.
By the way, the all caps scream on that post indicates to me not that GJ was "joking", but that he knew he was doing something ridiculous and stupid and daring, in finishing off a townie wagon when the scum hammer potential had already been flagged. The emotions fit someone being ballsy scum, and like Cyan, I'm very skeptical of his earlier statement on ZDS (I will not lynch ZDS over SC) and his rapid transition to hammering.
That, and his pride in his scum game indicate someone who tries to sprinkle in false-townie tells here and there, and act unexpectedly. It also looks like sometimes he tries to be too clever for his own good, though.
Yes. When the choice became Chris versus ZDS, it should have been obvious to anyone watching that I was reading Chris as scum, and Wheat as more town. So when the wagons became Wheat versus ZDS, a deadline on the loom, I chose ZDS. As scum though, what motive did I have to be ballsy? I could have just let Iso try to case DCIII, see what happens. I could have continued to try to get momentum back on Chris (which I thought about). Or, if I was hellbent on the bus strat, what a perfect time to solidfy the fact I didn't like ZDS over Chris, and prove that not only was I town reading Wheat, but that I saw the light (blah blah, WIFOM. I know).
I thought the case looked good (in before Az says of course I did). Az also did the exact same swing on me, calling my wagon silly townies, going back to a scum read on me end of day 1, and then back in his town pile day 2. Guess where he is now!
Weren't you/DCIII the ones that asked me about the hammer, and I gave you that answer a long time ago?
What does a game like this matter? It is a mafia game that people voted on to play. Why add all the grandeur to it?
Take the bolded completely out of this game's context: I would never never ever ask for a mod kill to attempt to look more townie, regardless of my alignment, and I am revolted that you think I would do that. That reeks of out of game shenanigans, and if I truly felt like modkilling off a buddy, I would asked Ged about it in private. I loathe lurkers and replacements, both in games I play and host. "End rant"
Back in game, I was having a hard time wrapping my brain around 3 people. I think I ended day 1 thinking Chris + one of the PRs (likely Iso) were the last two scum. I was fairly confidant in my Proph town, and leaning town on Seppel. With Iso dead, that meant that Chris, one of the other PRs, and mystery man were my reads. Cythare was the one that came back to me, since after analyzing who went after me, he was super vocal about me being scum, but very unwilling to lay down votes.
You are also claiming that despite a decent amount of pressure on me, and less on Cythare and Wheat, I was going to be the primary busser, despite heavily clinging to my buddy Wheat day 1, and then decided to bus him after being so sure ZDS was scum over him? Wheat bussing me would have looked much better in this situation.
And a scum team with me and Jobie would still make zero sense with a town Seppel. All I had to do was literally let Seppel die, get azreal the day after, and I could STILL go after Jobie either day without anyone thinking different about me. Jobie had the ultimate clean slate to start where ever he wanted, could have been Seppel first and he chose to go after Proph. Even lynching Jobie before Seppel would have likely ended in my victory. Why would I muddy the waters, just to be ballsy for the sake of ballsy?
More when I get off of lunch. Time to deal with Angry Mr. A
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Inactivity isn't really a problem in terms of alignment determining. Its moreso PoE at this point (I like PoE) and also the fact that Cythare did a great job of saying nothing memorable at when he did say stuff. But yeah really it isn't as if the slot has been scummy so much as so many people have so many reasons to be town in my head and then there's that slot and it's a great big 'nope.'
... You know, I was very ill wednesday night/yesterday and I am at work so I don't have time to look it up but did I say this? Because I don't remember saying this, and that should worry me I think.
By the way GJ you claim to be a very good scum player but now when we consider the level of balls you could have you claim that is not in your playbook. I consider it a requirement of good scum to be ballsy, how ballsy is a matter of interpretation I guess but yeah.
Not lynching Az/Cyan/Taredas/Proph today btw. Proph can be scum but only with Seppel so Seppel goes first every time there. I kicked the Az tires and while I think he is a bit silly I really and truly do not see the scum mindset here. Especially when he is all like "hey guys Seppel is totally town" out of nowhere which has no value as scum because frankly all it does is make me love him more and I already loved him.
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I still think I want to see this through, but now I'm a little less enthusiastic about it. Unvote, Vote GJ
Star Trek was a game where literally every member of the scum team was being read as scum by multiple people, and I needed a very good reason to not be PoEed out, and I had a good justification for what is retrospect was a pretty ballsy claim. Being ballsy for the sake of being ballsy when I could have literally coasted to victory as scum with Jobie seems wrong?
Hardcore bussing is definitely in my default line of scum plays, but bussing a player I was strongly reading as town day 1, and then flipping on him after momentum picks up?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I sincerely hope this is not referring to me or I may have to hurt you.
I see, so its not the balls its the sloppiness.
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I had to claim a role that I could justify not being useless, yet exist alongside a potential cop, and have a good justification for not getting nightkilled that doesn't appear overtly scummy. I'd like to see you do better in that situation.
In this game, I would have had to be purposefully sloppy going into today to justify a scum team of me and Jobie, where I could have suggested Jobie died first today, and STILL won the game after Az and Seppel bit it.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I just said the problem with the theory of you being scum this game from your perspective is not that you lack the balls but rather it is too sloppy to be your scum game. What are you even going on about?
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That statement is pretty accurate. I am also arguing that not only would it be too sloppy, but it would have been point blank unthinkably stupid.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
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Whatever it took though. If I did decide to go vanilla though, I would be damn sure all my actions made sense though. I am just as much vanilla fodder as everyone else day 1.
I understand where you are coming from: nothing is impossible if I felt I was drunk, but going into night 2, how would scum me/cythare not think that this game was snagged? Cyan even stated he would consider taredas as an outside 4th.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
@GJ: Alright, you wouldn't use an OOG element to your advantage as scum. So be it. That doesn't change that much.
Shrug, fine. Jobie doesn't have to be scum for you to be scum, it's just a nice fit.
Like..your whole self-defense to all of this is basically 'Well WIFOM'. That is really underwhelming.
No, you would have to bus them into oblivion, which is, you know, exactly what he tried to do. Even with a mislynch Day 1, if this was the exact scum team, I wouldn't be feeling great about my chances. Actively bussing Cythare would be difficult because, you know, you can't actually lynch someone that isn't around to respond to you and get lynched.
Just trying to puzzle it out. If my town reads are accurate we're fine. If my town reads are not accurate we're not fine, is what it boils down to. My town reads tend to have a very high clear rate. My town reads are supported by people being on the right side of history, to boot. Like the names Proph/Az have been bounced around and both decided to try to stick a fork into Wheat day one. That matters to me. It wasn't expedient and it wasn't required and yet they were there with me day one. Cythare wasn't. You weren't. Seppel wasn't. It matters. Voting a town over a scum day one matter and the attempt to dilute that simple fact is something I find very troubling. Mafia is a simple game made complex, some things are simple.
I keep coming back to that 7-4 split. I keep reading over how it went down. Either you screwed up or you wanted everyone to think you screwed up, and its my job to figure out which. You did yourself no favors by admitting your own cleverness, I take your word on that.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Can GJ be scum with anyone BUT Cythare? Like..could Seppel still be scum here? That would also explain GJ's willingness to switch between wagon's toward the end of yesterday. He was just going to bus one of his scumbuddies, so..who cares which one?
Can GJ and AZ be scum? I don't think that makes sense. And it doesn't line up with the idea that GJ was trying to peddle where Seppel/AZ was a viable team. I guess it's just a means to an end to getting Az lynched today, and then tomorrow he can fall back on 'well Seppel is still scum, let's go all aboard'?
I still can't get over how awful Az's play today is. I just can't shake it. His vote on Proph today is so, so, so scummy. On a scale of 1-10, it is 1 Million. Or more. It is inexcusably bad. I am trying so hard to give him a pass because Sir Chris has so much faith in him but like..I just can't get away from it. I just cannot see town motivation here for Az to make this vote. I just can't. I have honestly tried SO hard. And I just don't see it.
This game is completely infuriating to me. God Iso, which did you actually redirect me N1. Why couldn't you just let your ego get the better of you this one time and figure you could fend off my suspicions on Day 2 and let me investigation on Az go through. Goddamnit. God ******* damnit.
**** all of this, it's time to go back to the original plan. The one that made the most sense yesterday, and explains why we couldn't get ANY lynch to work. Unvote, Vote Seppel