Shrug, fine. Jobie doesn't have to be scum for you to be scum, it's just a nice fit.
It's a ******* awful fit. If you are that hellbent on being scum, the pairing that would make the most sense would be GJ/Seppel. That would be the only realistic explanation for why both Jobie and Az would try to stop his lynch, but not be aligned with Seppel.
Like..your whole self-defense to all of this is basically 'Well WIFOM'. That is really underwhelming.
What defense do I give that could be legitimately believed? I am not going to pretend I played my game perfectly, but my "defense" pretty much comes down to I did this for reason X, whether you believe it or not. I didn't comment too much about ZDS, so really the only two posts you have from me about the hammer was Chris > ZDS, my dislike of ZDS's final scum list, and then the hammer vote. I explained why I hammered, and if you don't believe me, there isn't much I can say or do, aside from try to point you at who is reading scum.
But think about this: You think Seppel and Az are town now (lols). You also within a 12 hour span switched from "Jobie is the more comfortable fit than GJ" to "Jobie doesn't have to be scum". If by some miracle you live tomorrow, do you just switch back to Az and Seppel and proceed to ***** the entire time about how you let them both escape? You are obviously town, and despite what you said, I doubt Taredas is scum. That leaves Seppel/Jobie/Proph and Sir Chris. It can't be Jobie for his entry vote, and Chris's interaction with Wheat and a scumMe would be obvious town. Proph's interaction with my self vote would be insanely ballsy for either of us to attempt a bus, so GJ/Seppel is literally the only possible combination that would make sense.
No, you would have to bus them into oblivion, which is, you know, exactly what he tried to do. Even with a mislynch Day 1, if this was the exact scum team, I wouldn't be feeling great about my chances. Actively bussing Cythare would be difficult because, you know, you can't actually lynch someone that isn't around to respond to you and get lynched.
Which is why in that situation, it would have made infinite more sense for Wheat to bus me and Cythare. Although, I suppose Cythare would have been a hard sell after Wheat called Cythare his "strongest town read".
Like I am having flashbacks to yesterday. If WG was scum and Seppel were town, why did the Seppel lynch not go through? The scum had to be otherwise engaged somehow. This is either because Seppel himself is scum, or because..what? Let's assess.
Votecount
(4) Seppel - Cyan, Rhand, Wheat_Grinder, Sir Chris
(3) Wheat_Grinder - Azrael, Prophylaxis, Taredas
(1) Azrael - Seppel
Not Voting: Cythare, Gentleman Johnny
This is the Vote Count that I really want to dig into, especially because GJ is not voting at this time. Cythare is also not voting, but you know, who knows what that means. This feels like the pivotal moment of yesterday.
GJ was on vacation for the first few days of this, but he came around toward the end of it. This was when I had decided that I (erronously) believed that WG was acting outside of his scum meta. If GJ were WG's scumbuddy here, and his gameplan going into the day was 'bus my team', why was he on 'do nothing' for this entire exchange? His entire contribution was a lukewarm 'WG could still be scum'. I would expect a much stronger reaction against here. And Seppel was the slightly more popular wagon at the time. GJ scum definitely could have voted Seppel here and swung the momentum against him, likely leading to a lynch, and just resumed his anti-WG bussing campaign the next day.
I'm back on the 'Seppel is scum and we had 2 competing scum wagons' train fully now. Let's lynch him. If he flips town, we should have a very solid picture of information to work with tomorrow. If he flips scum, finding the final member is going to be very difficult, but Az will be able to shoot someone(and if an extra body doesn't show up tonight, Az gets lynched tomorrow, no excuses), and we'll have some time to work with.
Also, just to double up a bit, the Seppel reacting to WG reacting to Az feels like a 'double up' moment more than anything else now that I really look at it.
I'm talking about when Taredas voted Az, and then I jumped on. When you take a step back, it really looks like WG was just jockeying for town credit, and Seppel was just doing the same thing by trying to bus WG, rather than WG actually just trying to jump in the fire to defend his scum buddy. Because like..if Az actually got lynched there, WG would just be dead in a millisecond.
We should definitely lynch Seppel. Quick before I change my mind again.
Sounds like GJ is telling you to vote for him, Cyan.
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Yeah I know. They can all do that, it's cool. I'm still going to have my vote be on Seppel in the meantime. I just don't want to be fooled anymore. I have a poor track record lately of getting tricked by scum, and it's making me really angry. This is like the third game in a row.
Man am I the only one who is literally going to ignore everything outside of day one like an ass because after day one macro adjustments can be made? Gotta trust dem early reads.
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Cyan, look at your posts. Seriously, look at them:
You went from Seppel-Az, to Jobie/me, to me/X, and now are back to Seppel in a day or less span with only myself and Chris really interacting with you in that span. Proph said he was going to re-read me, and I imagine Azrael will as well, so why not hear what they have to say.
Chris, where are you at with reads? I am still riding the Jobie/Az/Seppel train to victory. I know you think Az is town, so who is your fill in?
I don't really trust anyone but Proph and Chris, and Proph doesn't post enough for me to wait around for him. If he posted as much as Chris I could be patient.
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I kind of want to keep playing just in hopes that one day Chris and I could be on the same scum team. But then I always wanted Iso and myself to be scum together and that didn't happen in like 5 years time soooo..
See scum is fun but man once I've town cleared someone as town I can do my Jack Bauer Power Hour impression and paste scum and that's just amazing. Do you realize how fun I had slaughtering Wheat? Good times man.
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I kept rolling scum and was getting exhausted and wanted to roll town.
And then I..rolled town. I don't know why I wished this on myself. I probably would have enjoyed Predator more, because I did have a role that suits my personal style VERY well, but I was dealing with some personal stuff at the time, and Tomsloger's inane constant posting was just impossible to keep up with(I don't care what anyone says, it was much worse than mine has been in this game!).
In Stargate Mafia, I hope I get to be a town day-vig with unlimited shots. God please just one time.
Anyway. I guess it's back to waiting now, but I don't really know what else there is to say re: Seppel that wasn't said yesterday at various moments.
Great, so it looks like I'm going to have to live to the endgame, which means it's my fault if we get this wrong.
I'm not feeling GJ for scum. Well, not for any of the reasons that anyone brought up. It's possible to make bad arguments against a scum.
Cyan, Chris, Proph, Taredas: All town.
GJ, Jobie, Azrael: Not fully convinced of towniness.
Actually, yeah, that does make it autowin.
Will to lynch climbing. This post is just so hollow.
I am inclined to agree.
Actually, looking at how the game has gone toDay, and considering that Seppel is in my "not town" cluster, I am willing to hammer Seppel on Wednesday night (~96 hours from now).
As things stand, I am *not* willing to cast a vote for Seppel that is not the hammer vote. (I'd prefer to cast the hammering vote toDay in general, mostly because there's a couple of things I want to say before the end of the Day and the easiest way to guarantee that is to choose when to cast the hammer myself.)
Now, the caveat: I *can* be convinced not to hammer Seppel. If you want to do so, please make a detailed case on the player(s) you would prefer to lynch instead of Seppel toDay, and explain why you don't want to lynch Seppel toDay. 96 hours should be plenty of time for that, depending on when Proph's V/LA ends (if 96 hours is a problem for somebody, let me know). Note that there are two special cases here. First, if Proph (who already made a case on Az) wants to convince me not to lynch Seppel then I want Proph to explain who his second strongest scumread is and why. Second, if Az (who already explained why he doesn't want to lynch Seppel) wants to convince me not to lynch Seppel I would like to see both his cases on GJ/Proph and his thoughts on my slot (with reasoning).
There's a couple of reasons for this specific line of play, which I will explain when I hammer (or choose not to do so).
Taredas I like your slot and all but you don't get to unilaterally decide when to end day nor do I think we were even thinking about hammering BEFORE then, so I am confused why you have taken it upon yourself to propose onto us a false time limit. Just... say what you got to say without the dramatics?
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[quote]
What part of that first paragraph is going to spring to mind easily a d readily to a scum player?
Seppel was clearly in the mentality of a townie who checked out and gave up on his chances of survival and contribution following his big pbpa.
It's a pro town mindset, the only question is whether or not its faked, and that's unlikely.
H/W Play Mafia at MTGS[/qjuote]
Which part is Seppel 'giving up'? The part where he says he has to survive UNTIL THE ENDGAME? What are you even talking about? Are you even reading these posts as you make them, or are you just spouting off random nonsense that you think makes sense because you actually know everyone's alignment? Like..what in the actual ****?
Why am I the ONLY PERSON that see this absurdly scummy posts by Az and cares about them? ERGH!
I also love the part where Az is stumping for a guy that, 48 hours ago, he was singing to the mountains about how he has been unsure about this person's alignment for the whole game. But now he's just suddenly convinced that this person is town.
This ***** is so ******* stupid. Maybe GJ had it right and Az and Seppel really ARE the last 2 scum. I guess if we lynch Seppel and he flips town Az will look great, which is probably the entire point. This is like 'how to mafia 101'.
@Sir Chris: As much as you are obviously town, I kind of wish you were dead, so that I could get an Az lynch through with no resistance.
Things worth having tend to be hard won, Cyan. We do appear to be at a bit of an impasse though regarding our different takes on Az. I believe he is genuine, you do not, and so here we are. I am stubborn with my town reads, Cyan.
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Which part is Seppel 'giving up'? The part where he says he has to survive UNTIL THE ENDGAME? What are you even talking about? Are you even reading these posts as you make them, or are you just spouting off random nonsense that you think makes sense because you actually know everyone's alignment? Like..what in the actual ****?
Why am I the ONLY PERSON that see this absurdly scummy posts by Az and cares about them? ERGH!
Reading comprehension failure.
Seppel gave up after his big round of PBPAs. Go back and read the subsequent posts around that period. He's despondent and totally pessimistic about his chances of survival, and kinda gives up on contributing for a while. UNTIL this post here, where he grudgingly realizes, "Shucks, I have to actually try again now."
Which is very much a natural thought process for a townie coming out of that kind of funk.
Which part is Seppel 'giving up'? The part where he says he has to survive UNTIL THE ENDGAME? What are you even talking about? Are you even reading these posts as you make them, or are you just spouting off random nonsense that you think makes sense because you actually know everyone's alignment? Like..what in the actual ****?
Why am I the ONLY PERSON that see this absurdly scummy posts by Az and cares about them? ERGH!
Reading comprehension failure.
Seppel gave up after his big round of PBPAs. Go back and read the subsequent posts around that period. He's despondent and totally pessimistic about his chances of survival, and kinda gives up on contributing for a while. UNTIL this post here, where he grudgingly realizes, "Shucks, I have to actually try again now."
Which is very much a natural thought process for a townie coming out of that kind of funk.
Are you with me now?
You mean, when there was no pressure on him as scum he was content to lurk, but now that we are ready to lynch him again, he has to pretend to be a contributing member of the town.
IF he actually had the town's best interests at heart, he would have been participating this entire time, not ONLY when we are actively about to kill him.
And Seppel is completely capable of faking the tells that you are talking about here, come on. We both know this. Like, what has Seppel ACTUALLY done this game. Literally the best post he has made the entire game was one regarding WG trying to defend you, and that point was really just WIFOM when it comes down to it, as much as I to begrudgingly admit that.
I'm not saying that I think this is a rock solid lynch. I don't. No such lynch is available, that is simply the type of game that we are in. And this is certainly the best lynch available, by a wide margin. I mean like..who do you actually think is Mafia if you think Seppel isn't? Are you really still trying to convince us that Proph is scum?
Actually, I don't need a response, Seppel slipped up:
Quote from Seppel »
Great, so it looks like I'm going to have to live to the endgame, which means it's my fault if we get this wrong.
I'm not feeling GJ for scum. Well, not for any of the reasons that anyone brought up. It's possible to make bad arguments against a scum.
GJ, Jobie, Azrael: Not fully convinced of towniness.
Actually, yeah, that does make it autowin.
This implies he thinks the last two scum are Jobie/Az, with me being the outside 4th. There is no way town Seppel believes two scum decided to attack another wagon, rather than no breaks allow him to go down.
Vote Seppel
Az is probably the last one, although Jobie refusing to justify even a single other non-Proph read is bothersome. It almost reads as if he knows regardless of the order, he is death fodder so might as well lurk in the corner. Chris is town, but unfortunately, reeks of glory hunting. Taredas is still town, but can't seem to solidify his reads. Proph, I need to see your pick three right now, and Chris, I want to see yours as well. Cyan likely dies tomorrow, as the ******* tidal wave he is, so we need to make sure we can follow through without him, and I don't trust Chris to pick up the reins.
For the reasons you stated before: On a town Seppel, there is no way scum Jobie/Az (his two strongest mafia reads) go double barrel into Proph. There is no way he can legitimately believe that they are both scum, and decide to put him on the back burner.
What in the **** have I done this game other than hunt scum to the best of my abilities, GJ? That's a pretty rude thing for you to say that doesn't exactly make sense.
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If was truly town, he would believe me to be scum, and one of Az/Jobie to be town, rather than "not feeling me for scum". His vote would be on me, and he would be doing his damn best to figure out which of Jobie/Az would be more likely to be my buddy.
What in the **** have I done this game other than hunt scum to the best of my abilities, GJ? That's a pretty rude thing for you to say that doesn't exactly make sense.
You made a comment about being right on me would help me about my ego.
If nothing else GJ appeals to my ego a great deal. I would be very pleased if I spent large parts of day 1 stabbing at scum in GJ and Wheat.
I think you are hoping I am scum, just so you can say that you caught scumGJ, when everyone else was town reading him. It's not meant to be rude, but to imply you aren't thinking about it logically. It likely means you are town, as I can't see you faking it, but that is how I interpreted that point. Also this:
You did yourself no favors by admitting your own cleverness
...doesn't feel like a read. This reads like you are trying to convince yourself you are right on me.
Oh, but you aren't my pick for a third GJ, Proph is. I stated yesterday I felt the scum team was Seppel/Wheat/Proph and I have had no reason to change that today. You confuse my musings with my decision making, which you shouldn't. In fact me recognizing it appeals to my ego is something that works in your favor, because I am cautious of soothing my ego.
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I don't really know. Both you and Cythare's slot have done things to give me pause. I am hopeful its Seppel/Proph and this game is simple.
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For the reasons you stated before: On a town Seppel, there is no way scum Jobie/Az (his two strongest mafia reads) go double barrel into Proph. There is no way he can legitimately believe that they are both scum, and decide to put him on the back burner.
I still agree with this sentiment. I guess Jobie could have just had a full on mental lapse as scum, but..it's hard to believe. Though the fact that he has *fully* vanished since that mistake was made speaks volumes about his alignment IMO, and..they are not positive volumes. But again, all of that rests on Seppel's alignment. If Seppel flips scum, Jobie is probably town. If Seppel flips town, Jobie is extremely likely to be scum just trying to ride it out.
But if Seppel flips town, I want people to really scrutinize GJ tomorrow(I say this because it is virtually certain that I will be tonight's NK), because something about the post really rubs me the wrong way.
@SC: Wait, what now? You actually think Proph could be scum? Like..how? What could I be missing there? All he has EVER done this game is tried to lynch WG. And what about Taredas' meta read on him?
I am double and triple-posting alot these days. I'm sorry. I was going to read over Proph, but I didn't get very far.
I can't get over how scummy this post is:
OH YEAH, Proph with a way too accurate scum read.
My strongest town read is Cyan, it was already pretty strong and then the weird panicky thing at the end of D2 was enough to solidify him. Az and Chris are probably next, followed by GJ as the weakest town read.
Proph > Taredas > Seppel is my scum order (There has to be at least 1 in there).
Let's look closer at Proph:
I looked over WG's reads from D1: His scum reads are: GJ, Chris, Proph and ZDS. I always consider scum to throw some truth into their scum reads, so they don’t look completely incompetent. If we look at Proph/WG together, they were in separate voting groups on the ZDS lynch (W_G was on the ZDS lynch, Proph was not) and they both refused to answer Rhand’s post game boasting question (239 & 243, for GJ and Proph respectively). I took the time to read the thread to get my bearings and didn't take the time to look for interactions between WG and anyone in particular. If I find myself with free time (doubtful), I'll take a look at those.
Here's why I like the Proph lynch for today:
1) He was almost lynched Day 1 and the lynch was derailed by magic and weird Mafia Theory (/jerkoffmotion) discussion that somehow persuaded enough people for it to die. (Seriously, guys? A VT claim?)
2) His ignoring of Rhand's very sneaky "Post Your Scum Team so whoever is the best can give us all double middle fingers in the end-game" that he posed to everyone
3) The hokey "WG is scum" post I quoted above that seems hokey in hindsight.
4) His lack of joining any real wagons on Day 1, outside of vting for Chris and GJ very early in the game and allowing that S_C vote to stagnate until the day was almost over and then he jumped on WG.
5) The lack of movement away from WG during D2 which seemed more like "Seppel is a mislynch and I don't want to get pinned to that" than "WG is my top scum read, **** a Seppel lynch".
6) WG's flip of Proph from "no read" to "scum" within 60 posts.
Vote: Proph
This post reads like a hit piece, pure and simple. It starts OFF trying to discredit Proph for his participation in the WG wagon. But there is no meaningful critical review of the rest of Proph's play throughout the game.
Like..why can't GJ be scum here, instead of Proph, for example? Proph was much more consistent and thorough in his anti-WG sentiment. At least he thought WG was scum on Day 1. Etcetera.
And his follow up posts to this just feel 100% like a scum that got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. He does not even remotely attempt to defend his viewpoint. If he was town, I would expect him to at least try to get us to explore his viewpoint SOMEWHAT.
And I haven't forgotten how WG tried to handwave Cythare and just blanket declare him town. That has to mean something, now that WG has flipped scum. Like seriously. If we cannot gain information from a scum lynch, what the **** is the point in playing this game.
I just want to get today's lynch right, because I'm pretty sure it's my last day in this game, and every NK after this is going to be a giant WIFOM-fest for you guys.
IF he actually had the town's best interests at heart, he would have been participating this entire time, not ONLY when we are actively about to kill him.
And Seppel is completely capable of faking the tells that you are talking about here, come on. We both know this. Like, what has Seppel ACTUALLY done this game. Literally the best post he has made the entire game was one regarding WG trying to defend you, and that point was really just WIFOM when it comes down to it, as much as I to begrudgingly admit that.
I'm not saying that I think this is a rock solid lynch. I don't. No such lynch is available, that is simply the type of game that we are in. And this is certainly the best lynch available, by a wide margin. I mean like..who do you actually think is Mafia if you think Seppel isn't? Are you really still trying to convince us that Proph is scum?
*Any* reaction can potentially be faked by scum. That doesn't mean you ignore all possible townie tells, because they could be fake. You evaluate them for how natural they are, how many there are, and how creative the scum would have to be, to come up with the right thought for the situation, that is also consistent with their own past behavior.
The reason that post by Seppel is a terrific town tell is that it meets all those criteria. It fits in well with all the other townie tells I've already detailed, it's very much mindset consistent, and he'd have had to be pretty creative to come up with it.
And as for what more he could do, he PBPA'd practically every player in the game in exhausting detail before going to "lurker" mode. What more can you ask for?
Actually, I don't need a response, Seppel slipped up:
...That is not a slip.
To answer someone's question about who I think the scum are, I'm pretty committed to GJ at this point, and I still think I'm going to wind up reading Proph as scum pending reread. I think the rest of ya'all are getting played.
Hrm. Well to be fair its been a little bit since I've gone back and cased everyone so I'll do that soon. I haven't been feeling very well this week (had food poisoning, it was awful) and that disrupts my ability to sit down and read for long portions.
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I am not bothering with hyperlinking, because it takes too long to go back and forth between posts but here:
WG's big catch up post 178:
(said in response to proph) this codifies the misgivings i have about proph.
Asks for a response on a particular post about Proph, and then apparently has misgivings.
Proph, a post after he unvotes me, and WG votes me:
Gut is telling me that TCM is town. I hated his vote, and I didn't really care for the spat he had with Iso, but the self-vote and the attempt at a wagon analysis is screaming frustrated/indignant town to me. 1v1ing is generally a pretty good town tell in general.
And then shifts to Sir Chris. There is no way, absolutely no way with his scum buddy getting on, that Proph decided to let the easy mislynch go in favor of me. Azrael never chimed in yet, but his last response was bleh on me, and Cythare expressed dislike. This is a slamdunk mislynch that Proph has zero blame for.
Quote from Az »
I feel strongly that the GJ wagon is infested with silly townies and Proph is scum trying to get us to chase them.
I'm with you, Seppel.
vote Proph
Don't understand why anyone is reading GJ's attitude as scummy.
This is his response about a day later. Now the wagon is silly all of a sudden. Keep in mind his one mention of me before this was he disliked my interaction with Iso.
This one I will link, because I feel it is important with a scum WG:
Quote from Wheat Grinder »
Unvote, Vote: Proph
that's not how it works and you know it.
I am no longer town-reading Cyan.
This was after Cyan's unvote of Proph, and Rhand starting to doubt his vote after Proph's analysis post. This post, and this post by itself would be an amazing indicator that Proph is not scum with Wheat Grinder. WG piles on a vote on a buddy after pressure is starting to dissipate? Really?
To answer someone's question about who I think the scum are, I'm pretty committed to GJ at this point, and I still think I'm going to wind up reading Proph as scum pending reread. I think the rest of ya'all are getting played.
So, my two buddies are the two people I tried to hug the hardest day 1 (and going into yesterday in Proph's case)...
Did I wander into a Dennys, because this post is a grand slam.
I am not bothering with hyperlinking, because it takes too long to go back and forth between posts but here:
WG's big catch up post 178:
(said in response to proph) this codifies the misgivings i have about proph.
Asks for a response on a particular post about Proph, and then apparently has misgivings.
Proph, a post after he unvotes me, and WG votes me:
Gut is telling me that TCM is town. I hated his vote, and I didn't really care for the spat he had with Iso, but the self-vote and the attempt at a wagon analysis is screaming frustrated/indignant town to me. 1v1ing is generally a pretty good town tell in general.
And then shifts to Sir Chris. There is no way, absolutely no way with his scum buddy getting on, that Proph decided to let the easy mislynch go in favor of me. Azrael never chimed in yet, but his last response was bleh on me, and Cythare expressed dislike. This is a slamdunk mislynch that Proph has zero blame for.
Quote from Az »
I feel strongly that the GJ wagon is infested with silly townies and Proph is scum trying to get us to chase them.
I'm with you, Seppel.
vote Proph
Don't understand why anyone is reading GJ's attitude as scummy.
This is his response about a day later. Now the wagon is silly all of a sudden. Keep in mind his one mention of me before this was he disliked my interaction with Iso.
This one I will link, because I feel it is important with a scum WG:
Quote from Wheat Grinder »
Unvote, Vote: Proph
that's not how it works and you know it.
I am no longer town-reading Cyan.
This was after Cyan's unvote of Proph, and Rhand starting to doubt his vote after Proph's analysis post. This post, and this post by itself would be an amazing indicator that Proph is not scum with Wheat Grinder. WG piles on a vote on a buddy after pressure is starting to dissipate? Really?
Cyan, let me know if you find anything different.
So..I don't think GJ makes this post as scum. If he is scum and Proph is his scumbuddy, then I think he just helps shift the tide and busses Proph, then tries to spin that into a Proph/Seppel team tomorrow, and when that fails, a Proph/X team the next day. If he is scum and knows Proph is town, I still don't think he actively fights the lynch. It just doesn't seem like he can afford to, because like..we only have so many suspects here.
This feel like a pretty high plus town moment for GJ, frankly.
@GJ: Yes. that is Jobie's post.
Azrael, explain his mindset then. How else could he justify two of his scum reads not nailing town him?
I really would like anyone that thinks that Az/Jobie is a scum team to address this. Because it seems extremely dubious. I can accept that Jobie might be scum. I'm even willing to lynch him today if people want, even ahead of Seppel if that is really want people want, though I think that Seppel is probably the better informational play. But I can't accept that Az and Jobie are on the scum team. I just can't. This is too reckless a move for Az to make if Jobie is scum. There is no way that he thinks that 3 of the 5 non-Proph townies are going to pile on Proph here. I can see either one of these two being scum independently, for their own reasons. But I simply cannot see them being scum on the same team.
If this was all some carefully co-ordinated ploy on their part to create exactly this kind of distanced situation between them, well..great job I guess.
I think that we realistically only have 2 people to choose from to lynch today. Seppel and Jobie. Both of them have high likelihood for being scum, and both of them have scenarios where they could be scum with each other, and with another player. Please pick one of these players and vote for them. This includes you, Proph. I still have misgivings about Az myself. But if he IS scum, most likely it is with Seppel. So please just vote for Seppel then.
Quick post, won't be able to go into more in-depth things until Wednesday/Thursday.
Quote from Azrael »
Like, how many different times this game have I been struggling with time constraints, and discussing how heavily my reads are in flux as a result, discussing how heavily my reads flip even in normal games where I have plenty of time, and discussing the necessity of revisiting all my prior reads post-Rhand?
Even if you were struggling with time constraints, why didn't you engage with Wheat? All you did was not have an opinion of him until you eyeballed a post, and then you were the fourth person on the wagon.
Can you give me an example of how your read on someone flipped from scum, town, then to scum again in a town game of yours? You cited the invitational, but going from scum to town is something I do all of the time. The way that you flipped from scum, then to town, then to scum again once Jobie posted the first post of Day 3 once again feels very disingenuous.
Why didn't you vote Wheat in the beginning stages of Day 2, only voting him once the wagon was slinking away?
Even if some of these issues are explained away here, there are still pressing questions you need to address.
---
The only thing that is bugging me internally (I have been trying to show more certainty on Az) is if Az is scum, then I have no idea who his last scumbuddy is. At first I thought it was GJ, but I've liked GJ's more recent posts (1610) and I don't get why they would bus each other Today if they can just hop onto the juicy Seppel wagon and ride to victory. So I remain in a situation where I am pretty sure Az is scum, but I still think the last scum is out there somewhere completely outplaying us.
I still think that Seppel is town, but after reading this page I'm willing to let him go since I think he will be a major distraction and I don't want to lynch him at lylo and lose. The biggest reason why I defended him so hard Yesterday because I was a lot more certain on Wheat than I currently am on Az, but it looks like no one wants an Az lynch Today and we have a bit of breathing room since we got a scum lynch.
In the very unlikely chance that Seppel flips scum, then we all cheer and my game sucks again. If he flips town (which I am betting he will), then we get a mountain of interactions to analyze (to hopefully find the last scum) and we can actually lynch scum Tomorrow.
I think Jobie is town due to him being unaligned pairs with Az (with the double vote on me). Plus, Wheat whiteknighted Cythare in a way that I don't think he would if both were scum.
It's a ******* awful fit. If you are that hellbent on being scum, the pairing that would make the most sense would be GJ/Seppel. That would be the only realistic explanation for why both Jobie and Az would try to stop his lynch, but not be aligned with Seppel.
What defense do I give that could be legitimately believed? I am not going to pretend I played my game perfectly, but my "defense" pretty much comes down to I did this for reason X, whether you believe it or not. I didn't comment too much about ZDS, so really the only two posts you have from me about the hammer was Chris > ZDS, my dislike of ZDS's final scum list, and then the hammer vote. I explained why I hammered, and if you don't believe me, there isn't much I can say or do, aside from try to point you at who is reading scum.
But think about this: You think Seppel and Az are town now (lols). You also within a 12 hour span switched from "Jobie is the more comfortable fit than GJ" to "Jobie doesn't have to be scum". If by some miracle you live tomorrow, do you just switch back to Az and Seppel and proceed to ***** the entire time about how you let them both escape? You are obviously town, and despite what you said, I doubt Taredas is scum. That leaves Seppel/Jobie/Proph and Sir Chris. It can't be Jobie for his entry vote, and Chris's interaction with Wheat and a scumMe would be obvious town. Proph's interaction with my self vote would be insanely ballsy for either of us to attempt a bus, so GJ/Seppel is literally the only possible combination that would make sense.
Which is why in that situation, it would have made infinite more sense for Wheat to bus me and Cythare. Although, I suppose Cythare would have been a hard sell after Wheat called Cythare his "strongest town read".
The GJ way path to no lynching:
This is the Vote Count that I really want to dig into, especially because GJ is not voting at this time. Cythare is also not voting, but you know, who knows what that means. This feels like the pivotal moment of yesterday.
GJ was on vacation for the first few days of this, but he came around toward the end of it. This was when I had decided that I (erronously) believed that WG was acting outside of his scum meta. If GJ were WG's scumbuddy here, and his gameplan going into the day was 'bus my team', why was he on 'do nothing' for this entire exchange? His entire contribution was a lukewarm 'WG could still be scum'. I would expect a much stronger reaction against here. And Seppel was the slightly more popular wagon at the time. GJ scum definitely could have voted Seppel here and swung the momentum against him, likely leading to a lynch, and just resumed his anti-WG bussing campaign the next day.
I'm back on the 'Seppel is scum and we had 2 competing scum wagons' train fully now. Let's lynch him. If he flips town, we should have a very solid picture of information to work with tomorrow. If he flips scum, finding the final member is going to be very difficult, but Az will be able to shoot someone(and if an extra body doesn't show up tonight, Az gets lynched tomorrow, no excuses), and we'll have some time to work with.
I'm talking about when Taredas voted Az, and then I jumped on. When you take a step back, it really looks like WG was just jockeying for town credit, and Seppel was just doing the same thing by trying to bus WG, rather than WG actually just trying to jump in the fire to defend his scum buddy. Because like..if Az actually got lynched there, WG would just be dead in a millisecond.
We should definitely lynch Seppel. Quick before I change my mind again.
There is no reason not to see if jobie explains his reads.
You might as well see what proph comes up with me as well, and what all the silent people thought about our exchange...
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
If you're scum, well..I don't know what to say. Props I guess. That is some next level ***** right there.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
You went from Seppel-Az, to Jobie/me, to me/X, and now are back to Seppel in a day or less span with only myself and Chris really interacting with you in that span. Proph said he was going to re-read me, and I imagine Azrael will as well, so why not hear what they have to say.
Chris, where are you at with reads? I am still riding the Jobie/Az/Seppel train to victory. I know you think Az is town, so who is your fill in?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
How this makes me feel
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
And then I..rolled town. I don't know why I wished this on myself. I probably would have enjoyed Predator more, because I did have a role that suits my personal style VERY well, but I was dealing with some personal stuff at the time, and Tomsloger's inane constant posting was just impossible to keep up with(I don't care what anyone says, it was much worse than mine has been in this game!).
In Stargate Mafia, I hope I get to be a town day-vig with unlimited shots. God please just one time.
Anyway. I guess it's back to waiting now, but I don't really know what else there is to say re: Seppel that wasn't said yesterday at various moments.
Great, so it looks like I'm going to have to live to the endgame, which means it's my fault if we get this wrong.
I'm not feeling GJ for scum. Well, not for any of the reasons that anyone brought up. It's possible to make bad arguments against a scum.
Cyan, Chris, Proph, Taredas: All town.
GJ, Jobie, Azrael: Not fully convinced of towniness.
Actually, yeah, that does make it autowin.
Which of your three reads is the strongest, Seppel?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Will to lynch climbing. This post is just so hollow.
Seppel was clearly in the mentality of a townie who checked out and gave up on his chances of survival and contribution following his big pbpa.
It's a pro town mindset, the only question is whether or not its faked, and that's unlikely.
I am inclined to agree.
Actually, looking at how the game has gone toDay, and considering that Seppel is in my "not town" cluster, I am willing to hammer Seppel on Wednesday night (~96 hours from now).
As things stand, I am *not* willing to cast a vote for Seppel that is not the hammer vote. (I'd prefer to cast the hammering vote toDay in general, mostly because there's a couple of things I want to say before the end of the Day and the easiest way to guarantee that is to choose when to cast the hammer myself.)
Now, the caveat: I *can* be convinced not to hammer Seppel. If you want to do so, please make a detailed case on the player(s) you would prefer to lynch instead of Seppel toDay, and explain why you don't want to lynch Seppel toDay. 96 hours should be plenty of time for that, depending on when Proph's V/LA ends (if 96 hours is a problem for somebody, let me know). Note that there are two special cases here. First, if Proph (who already made a case on Az) wants to convince me not to lynch Seppel then I want Proph to explain who his second strongest scumread is and why. Second, if Az (who already explained why he doesn't want to lynch Seppel) wants to convince me not to lynch Seppel I would like to see both his cases on GJ/Proph and his thoughts on my slot (with reasoning).
There's a couple of reasons for this specific line of play, which I will explain when I hammer (or choose not to do so).
HoS: Seppel for now (psuedovote).
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
What part of that first paragraph is going to spring to mind easily a d readily to a scum player?
Seppel was clearly in the mentality of a townie who checked out and gave up on his chances of survival and contribution following his big pbpa.
It's a pro town mindset, the only question is whether or not its faked, and that's unlikely.
H/W Play Mafia at MTGS[/qjuote]
Which part is Seppel 'giving up'? The part where he says he has to survive UNTIL THE ENDGAME? What are you even talking about? Are you even reading these posts as you make them, or are you just spouting off random nonsense that you think makes sense because you actually know everyone's alignment? Like..what in the actual ****?
Why am I the ONLY PERSON that see this absurdly scummy posts by Az and cares about them? ERGH!
This ***** is so ******* stupid. Maybe GJ had it right and Az and Seppel really ARE the last 2 scum. I guess if we lynch Seppel and he flips town Az will look great, which is probably the entire point. This is like 'how to mafia 101'.
@Sir Chris: As much as you are obviously town, I kind of wish you were dead, so that I could get an Az lynch through with no resistance.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Reading comprehension failure.
Seppel gave up after his big round of PBPAs. Go back and read the subsequent posts around that period. He's despondent and totally pessimistic about his chances of survival, and kinda gives up on contributing for a while. UNTIL this post here, where he grudgingly realizes, "Shucks, I have to actually try again now."
Which is very much a natural thought process for a townie coming out of that kind of funk.
Are you with me now?
You mean, when there was no pressure on him as scum he was content to lurk, but now that we are ready to lynch him again, he has to pretend to be a contributing member of the town.
IF he actually had the town's best interests at heart, he would have been participating this entire time, not ONLY when we are actively about to kill him.
And Seppel is completely capable of faking the tells that you are talking about here, come on. We both know this. Like, what has Seppel ACTUALLY done this game. Literally the best post he has made the entire game was one regarding WG trying to defend you, and that point was really just WIFOM when it comes down to it, as much as I to begrudgingly admit that.
I'm not saying that I think this is a rock solid lynch. I don't. No such lynch is available, that is simply the type of game that we are in. And this is certainly the best lynch available, by a wide margin. I mean like..who do you actually think is Mafia if you think Seppel isn't? Are you really still trying to convince us that Proph is scum?
This implies he thinks the last two scum are Jobie/Az, with me being the outside 4th. There is no way town Seppel believes two scum decided to attack another wagon, rather than no breaks allow him to go down.
Vote Seppel
Az is probably the last one, although Jobie refusing to justify even a single other non-Proph read is bothersome. It almost reads as if he knows regardless of the order, he is death fodder so might as well lurk in the corner. Chris is town, but unfortunately, reeks of glory hunting. Taredas is still town, but can't seem to solidify his reads. Proph, I need to see your pick three right now, and Chris, I want to see yours as well. Cyan likely dies tomorrow, as the ******* tidal wave he is, so we need to make sure we can follow through without him, and I don't trust Chris to pick up the reins.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
You made a comment about being right on me would help me about my ego.
I think you are hoping I am scum, just so you can say that you caught scumGJ, when everyone else was town reading him. It's not meant to be rude, but to imply you aren't thinking about it logically. It likely means you are town, as I can't see you faking it, but that is how I interpreted that point. Also this:
...doesn't feel like a read. This reads like you are trying to convince yourself you are right on me.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
I still agree with this sentiment. I guess Jobie could have just had a full on mental lapse as scum, but..it's hard to believe. Though the fact that he has *fully* vanished since that mistake was made speaks volumes about his alignment IMO, and..they are not positive volumes. But again, all of that rests on Seppel's alignment. If Seppel flips scum, Jobie is probably town. If Seppel flips town, Jobie is extremely likely to be scum just trying to ride it out.
But if Seppel flips town, I want people to really scrutinize GJ tomorrow(I say this because it is virtually certain that I will be tonight's NK), because something about the post really rubs me the wrong way.
@SC: Wait, what now? You actually think Proph could be scum? Like..how? What could I be missing there? All he has EVER done this game is tried to lynch WG. And what about Taredas' meta read on him?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I can't get over how scummy this post is:
This post reads like a hit piece, pure and simple. It starts OFF trying to discredit Proph for his participation in the WG wagon. But there is no meaningful critical review of the rest of Proph's play throughout the game.
Like..why can't GJ be scum here, instead of Proph, for example? Proph was much more consistent and thorough in his anti-WG sentiment. At least he thought WG was scum on Day 1. Etcetera.
And his follow up posts to this just feel 100% like a scum that got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. He does not even remotely attempt to defend his viewpoint. If he was town, I would expect him to at least try to get us to explore his viewpoint SOMEWHAT.
And I haven't forgotten how WG tried to handwave Cythare and just blanket declare him town. That has to mean something, now that WG has flipped scum. Like seriously. If we cannot gain information from a scum lynch, what the **** is the point in playing this game.
I just want to get today's lynch right, because I'm pretty sure it's my last day in this game, and every NK after this is going to be a giant WIFOM-fest for you guys.
*Any* reaction can potentially be faked by scum. That doesn't mean you ignore all possible townie tells, because they could be fake. You evaluate them for how natural they are, how many there are, and how creative the scum would have to be, to come up with the right thought for the situation, that is also consistent with their own past behavior.
The reason that post by Seppel is a terrific town tell is that it meets all those criteria. It fits in well with all the other townie tells I've already detailed, it's very much mindset consistent, and he'd have had to be pretty creative to come up with it.
And as for what more he could do, he PBPA'd practically every player in the game in exhausting detail before going to "lurker" mode. What more can you ask for?
...That is not a slip.
To answer someone's question about who I think the scum are, I'm pretty committed to GJ at this point, and I still think I'm going to wind up reading Proph as scum pending reread. I think the rest of ya'all are getting played.
(3) Seppel - Sir Chris, Cyan, Gentleman Johnny
(1) Prophylaxis - Azrael
(1) Azrael - Prophylaxis
(1) Gentleman Johnny - Taredas
Not Voting: Jobie, Seppel
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Jobie has been prodded.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
WG's big catch up post 178:
Asks for a response on a particular post about Proph, and then apparently has misgivings.
Proph, a post after he unvotes me, and WG votes me:
And then shifts to Sir Chris. There is no way, absolutely no way with his scum buddy getting on, that Proph decided to let the easy mislynch go in favor of me. Azrael never chimed in yet, but his last response was bleh on me, and Cythare expressed dislike. This is a slamdunk mislynch that Proph has zero blame for.
This is his response about a day later. Now the wagon is silly all of a sudden. Keep in mind his one mention of me before this was he disliked my interaction with Iso.
This one I will link, because I feel it is important with a scum WG:
This was after Cyan's unvote of Proph, and Rhand starting to doubt his vote after Proph's analysis post. This post, and this post by itself would be an amazing indicator that Proph is not scum with Wheat Grinder. WG piles on a vote on a buddy after pressure is starting to dissipate? Really?
Cyan, let me know if you find anything different.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
So, my two buddies are the two people I tried to hug the hardest day 1 (and going into yesterday in Proph's case)...
Did I wander into a Dennys, because this post is a grand slam.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
So..I don't think GJ makes this post as scum. If he is scum and Proph is his scumbuddy, then I think he just helps shift the tide and busses Proph, then tries to spin that into a Proph/Seppel team tomorrow, and when that fails, a Proph/X team the next day. If he is scum and knows Proph is town, I still don't think he actively fights the lynch. It just doesn't seem like he can afford to, because like..we only have so many suspects here.
This feel like a pretty high plus town moment for GJ, frankly.
@GJ: Yes. that is Jobie's post.
I really would like anyone that thinks that Az/Jobie is a scum team to address this. Because it seems extremely dubious. I can accept that Jobie might be scum. I'm even willing to lynch him today if people want, even ahead of Seppel if that is really want people want, though I think that Seppel is probably the better informational play. But I can't accept that Az and Jobie are on the scum team. I just can't. This is too reckless a move for Az to make if Jobie is scum. There is no way that he thinks that 3 of the 5 non-Proph townies are going to pile on Proph here. I can see either one of these two being scum independently, for their own reasons. But I simply cannot see them being scum on the same team.
If this was all some carefully co-ordinated ploy on their part to create exactly this kind of distanced situation between them, well..great job I guess.
I think that we realistically only have 2 people to choose from to lynch today. Seppel and Jobie. Both of them have high likelihood for being scum, and both of them have scenarios where they could be scum with each other, and with another player. Please pick one of these players and vote for them. This includes you, Proph. I still have misgivings about Az myself. But if he IS scum, most likely it is with Seppel. So please just vote for Seppel then.
Even if you were struggling with time constraints, why didn't you engage with Wheat? All you did was not have an opinion of him until you eyeballed a post, and then you were the fourth person on the wagon.
Can you give me an example of how your read on someone flipped from scum, town, then to scum again in a town game of yours? You cited the invitational, but going from scum to town is something I do all of the time. The way that you flipped from scum, then to town, then to scum again once Jobie posted the first post of Day 3 once again feels very disingenuous.
Why didn't you vote Wheat in the beginning stages of Day 2, only voting him once the wagon was slinking away?
Even if some of these issues are explained away here, there are still pressing questions you need to address.
---
The only thing that is bugging me internally (I have been trying to show more certainty on Az) is if Az is scum, then I have no idea who his last scumbuddy is. At first I thought it was GJ, but I've liked GJ's more recent posts (1610) and I don't get why they would bus each other Today if they can just hop onto the juicy Seppel wagon and ride to victory. So I remain in a situation where I am pretty sure Az is scum, but I still think the last scum is out there somewhere completely outplaying us.
I still think that Seppel is town, but after reading this page I'm willing to let him go since I think he will be a major distraction and I don't want to lynch him at lylo and lose. The biggest reason why I defended him so hard Yesterday because I was a lot more certain on Wheat than I currently am on Az, but it looks like no one wants an Az lynch Today and we have a bit of breathing room since we got a scum lynch.
In the very unlikely chance that Seppel flips scum, then we all cheer and my game sucks again. If he flips town (which I am betting he will), then we get a mountain of interactions to analyze (to hopefully find the last scum) and we can actually lynch scum Tomorrow.