I'm not too worried about Cythare claiming Orzhov. There's probably something in the game that can let us see his alignment afterwards, and he could just be lying. Still, I think lynching KA first is better because of the guaranteed flip, and because I feel like he has a higher chance of somehow wiggling away D2 than Cythare.
I can agree with this logic. Kami has not impressed me in his responses. Cythare being Orzhov puts a damper on that lynch for today. I can wait for tomorrow to lynch Cythare.
Get off the fence and choose from someone who's actually got a chance of being lynched toDay people. We've only got ~3 days, and I'd prefer we actually have time to react to a claim.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
Get off the fence and choose from someone who's actually got a chance of being lynched toDay people. We've only got ~3 days, and I'd prefer we actually have time to react to a claim.
I'm not on any fences, but the people I think are scum won't get lynched.
Cythare is Orzhov and therefor a bad lynch. We won't be able to do any interaction analysis toMorrow if we lynch him.
I don't care about the next Days, but I do not want an Orzhov lynch D1.
Wait now, you can't say Orzhov is inherently a bad lynch and also that we shouldn't do anything about Obzedat. What, we're supposed to give all Orzhov players a free pass until this Immortal Servitude business is sorted out? Cythare isn't a bad lynch because he's Orzhov. He's a bad lynch because this is a last minute wagon and we've other better candidates for a lynch. This is just wasting our deadline extension.
I don't want a Orzhov lynch D1 because we'll learn nothing for D2.
Starting toMorrow I don't mind lynching Orzhov anymore.
I reread Koolkoal. He started out without time, making for some weird posts, but those are not alignment-telling for someone who doesn't have time to get into the game.
This post is concerning:
I'm not scum reading you sep. I just think hawk is town for his vote.
Thats not what i said tho, You stated you where OFF the Hawk Wagon, but you never joined it to begin with.
Except I also outright called him scum earlier, and said multiple times I was happy lynching him, so I was more committed to lynching him than you currently are committed to lynching me.
Also how is Hawk being town for his vote on me not scum reading me? that baffles the mind really.
Because the fact that he voted you doesn't matter. Its who he didn't vote in that exact situation that matters.
What he says there about Hawk is just not true. He never outright called him scum or said he wanted to lynch him.
That is literally the only thing I can find that could point towards him being scum.
His posting became better once he got pressured.
I would also prefer to lynch someone who will give us a flip at this point. I just skimmed through Az's case, and I think it's fine as these things go, which is to say, without a lot to go on yet. Looks like a lot of it comes down to not posting a lot of content/baseless speculation, which I am hardly in a position to criticize. There may be more to it in the way he reacted to coming under pressure.
I have a series of gut-type reads which I haven't followed up on. But, to name names, the people that have pinged the most are Atog; KA; Hans/Huntzilla; KoolKoal; Sir Karn; Snurfy/Killjoy. I am wary that a lot of these are the low posters and people who are just skating by. I want to give Az credit for all the attention he's paying to the game and the work he's doing, but it may take a flip or two until I feel comfortable with that, Az being Az. Rhand seems Town. Proph seems Town. Scarbo seems Town. I believe there was something about Sep. that made me think he was Town.
I am hopefully going to have a little time at least coming up to put more time into this before the deadline.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Town
Proph (This is townie Proph. He's engaged, thoughtful, not stubbornly sticking to his guns)
AE
Azreal (I don't see how his posting can come from a scum perspective. I see no deception)
Lean town
Hawk(I don't see how #214 likely comes from scum)
ZDS(Like his case on KoolKoal, other posts)
Speriel(Agree with Rhand)
Null
Zinda(Like his posting for the most part, but dislike how he thinks Hawk would be a good deadline lynch.)
Axel
Lean scum
Hans(has been weird all game.
Atog (I'm not liking the inconsistencies that Scar has been pointing ou such as in 258)
Hunt (Dislike his t/s list in 872. Major asskissing in his town reads, he also defaults replacements in Scum.
Rhand(I dislike his barning of Az in 755, especially since he doesn't seem to agree with that read.
Scar(Dismissive begets dismissive... doesn't seem like a town perspective. I don't recall scab being naturally obstinant also.)
Cythare(Something about them gives me goosebumps. IDK what it is)
Scum
Vish (Not sure if his vote on Clan Dimir/Lasav was serious, but it's odd for so late in the game)
Koolkoal(reasons provided in ZDS's case. Also DKings points. ZDS says he likes his posts after that, I don't agree)
Karn(I'm not sure he DOES think Prophy is scum. Also Prophy's pretty town)
KA(Has a few of my strong town reads as scum. Also see AI reasons below)
AI(He DOES seem bitter this game, and I do recall him saying once he hates being scum. Not sure that MAKES him scum, though.826 is a scum post, however. He's claiming it was sarcasm? lol)
I'm ok with a Cythare lynch, but would prefer KA. In fact Vote Kami
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
killjoy, please explain your thought process on what your read on Sepiriel is, from the last time you posted until now.
I don't understand why you were "convinced by Rhand" when you have Rhand as lean scum.
Just because I'm leaning scum on him doesn't make him wrong. I was not "convinced by Rhand." I said I agree with him. I think Sepriel is town because of these two posts specificially:
Guys as much as i want to I keep feeling im in over my head this game, I may need to stick to more basic setups or smaller sized games for a while untili can get aa good handle of things (maybe even a mentoring or two really), as such im going to have to ask Meg:
/Replace
Really sorry guys i just simply can't get my head in the game considering how much input you guys are providing and i simply dont think i can return it in kind.
Hey guys, at the insistence of the Mod i considered how things are going and slept on whether or not i should replace, like Rhand said hopefully as the days go by it will be easier to be more productive, and Meg said the constant replacing would be bad both for the current players as well as for the player replacing in, so yeah we are all stuck with each other for a bit longer it seems
though presumably Rhand cleared her based on just the first one.
why would you be "ok" with a Orzhov lynch that you have lean scum while there are others in your scum list (and lean scum list) that also have wagons?
Cythare and Kami are the leading wagons right now. So I commented on them specifically. We have limited time to start up a new wagon, so I'm not gonna bother with anyone else before deadline.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
My previous post meant: If you're refusing to vote for someone who could be lynched toDay, you're basically fence-sitting on discussion that matters in the here-and-now. Or, in the worst case scenario, you could be actively pushing for no lynch (depending on what Megs decides to do with his possible end of the day majority ruling he posted about).
Confusion and indecision right now is ideal for scum, so everyone needs to show up and be relevant. Just complaining that no one agrees with your reads is pointless noise.
@KJ
And just to be sure, did you leave Hans and AI on there specifically, as well as including Me and KA as the replacements? You kept the reads at least in the same sections but it just seemed odd, especially the placement of Hans and I not next to one another...
Also,
The replacements were in the scum section because of their previous players play in their slots. They were not "defaulted" there. I do not appreciate the misrep in that regard.
Cythare is simply a bad lynch. If it actually came down to Cythare or me I would advocate for my own lynch. On D1, a mislynch that gives info is better than a no-reveal lynch. A mislynch that gives info is also better than no-lynch.
The correct lynch is Atog. If you're going to make deadline decisions as X vs. Y, make it Atog vs. myself. No other useful wagon is going to complete in the time we have available.
Speaking of claims, given that we're approaching deadline, I'm going to consider "lynch forerunner with less than 48 hours remaining" to be comparable to "L-2". If I'm in the lead tomorrow I will claim, and we should hold Atog to the same protocol.
Killjoy: on "Last 5+ pages" -> Did you read the whole thread or did you skip ahead a bit?
Also: you don't have dkings on your t/s list. Do you have an opinion on him?
A little of both. I started reading, got to 100, got busy, off and on kept going till 300, then Axel made the "last 5 pages" suggestion, which I decided was a good idea, so I started doing that, got busy again, then started again today. 1-300 should def be indcluded, pages 15-20 (though I may have read them a bit fast to get it over with) with some other strings of posts read in between.
And DKings is lean town. I've liked his posting thus far.
@KJ
And just to be sure, did you leave Hans and AI on there specifically, as well as including Me and KA as the replacements? You kept the reads at least in the same sections but it just seemed odd, especially the placement of Hans and I not next to one another...
Also,
The replacements were in the scum section because of their previous players play in their slots. They were not "defaulted" there. I do not appreciate the misrep in that regard.
I did that on purpose, yes. It signifies that Hans/AI did specific things I disliked, while the replacements did others.
And re: the second thing. Can you point me to where you made a post saying those players were scum? And failing that, why your reason for us being there was only listed as "Give replacements time to catch up" with no reference to our previous players actions?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Not a huge fan of KJ's t/s list
I'm interested as to why everyone is just taking Cythare at face value that he's Orzhov. I realize that this approaches WIFOM territory, but I could see scum falseclaiming Orzhov early game to take advantage of the fact that the general attitude seems to be that a non-reveal lynch is useless early game (I agree).
I realize that we're past the days of "Lynch all Liars," but I can't agree with the points Az makes in his defense of Atog. Of the lynch candidates available, he feels scummiest to me. Vote Atog
dkings was V/lA. The rest of you are people who have been at least semi reasonable. I do not want to replace again this close to deadline. So, prods go out tomorrow. Failure to respond to prod will equal to replacement, as unfortunate as that is.
*This vote was not made on a new line. I happened to notice it and thus added it. Please remember to make all votes on a new line in the future.
Taredas: Does your post imply we should take a particular course of action? (eg: start lynching Gruul until we hit scum)
No. There's a few implications of there likely being exactly one Mafia in Gruul:
- At most and likely exactly one of {Azrael, Atog, hans/Huntzilla, Killjoy, zindabad?} is Mafia (depending on whether or not Zindabad is actually Gruul); it's possible another is a neutral. Of those, I'm nearly certain Az is town - his tone is a dead-ringer for Cyan's Impossible A and now Deathbringer (in particular, the "step back and assess, then kick into PBPA mode" is classic town!Az), and he's not giving me the same heebie-jeebies he did as a scumbuddy in CT3 - but I find the rest scummy to varying degrees and they can't all be scum so at least two have to be scummy town rather than actual scum. (I thought hans was likely town pulling the "act scummy for reactions" gambit early, but I'm increasingly unsure about that - his lack of activity later is more typical of scum!hans and Huntzilla's defensiveness is concerning; zindabad is somebody I really need to find time to take a fine-toothed comb on, and his refusal to explicitly claim whether or not he is Gruul and dismissive response to my analysis are both extremely questionable if he is in fact Gruul [reminds me of dC dismissing my Hitman target analysis in Redux Mirror]; Atog's attacks read scum [but that *could* be explained by the "VI baiting scum", and he's drawn a lot of flak from questionable corners [AI/KA, scarbo, etc.] - at this point, I think he's the most likely scummy Gruul townie]; Snurfy was self-conscious and Killjoy has been lurky [and he's *not* giving me the heebie-jeebies, which is weird because I had them in ST:MU3 *and* Vagrant Story].)
- If a Gruul flips Mafia, all surviving Gruul are almost certainly not Mafia and probably town.
- If we can clear a couple of Gruul (through NKs/investigations/interactions with flipped players/etc.), then the remaining Gruul become considerably more likely to be Mafia. Likewise, if a bunch (3 or especially 4) non-Gruul Mafia flip, then the remaining non-Gruul players are *less* likely to be scum (if four non-Gruul Mafia flip, then the remaining Gruul are almost certainly not Mafia).
But more importantly: Why are you asking this in this way - and, in particular, why are you including the "start lynching Gruul until we lynch scum" at the end? Because that looks a lot like this post of KoolKoal's from WitchHunt:
* - Corollary: I *hate* attacking townies I read easily as scum, since it's even harder for me to fake my tone when doing so - I tend to steer clear of them, as I did to you in both Drury and CT3.
Are you saying you'd be hiding from Iso and AE if you were scum?
In WitchHunt, KoolKoal loaded this question in order to try and make me look scummy. Here, you bring up "lynching Gruul until we hit scum" - and the logical implication of that line is that I am scum trying to chain mislynches ("One of these players is scum, let's lynch them until one flips scum!" is a stock scum trick to try to generate multiple mislynches - KoolKoal tried to pull that one in WitchHunt, too). Moreover, I don't see why you would include that line as town - it's more informative (in particular, less likely to be a false positive) if the player you ask brings it up on their own.
Town
Proph (This is townie Proph. He's engaged, thoughtful, not stubbornly sticking to his guns)
AE
Azreal (I don't see how his posting can come from a scum perspective. I see no deception)
Lean town
Hawk(I don't see how #214 likely comes from scum)
ZDS(Like his case on KoolKoal, other posts)
Speriel(Agree with Rhand)
Null
Zinda(Like his posting for the most part, but dislike how he thinks Hawk would be a good deadline lynch.)
Axel
Lean scum
Hans(has been weird all game.
Atog (I'm not liking the inconsistencies that Scar has been pointing ou such as in 258)
Hunt (Dislike his t/s list in 872. Major asskissing in his town reads, he also defaults replacements in Scum.
Rhand(I dislike his barning of Az in 755, especially since he doesn't seem to agree with that read.
Scar(Dismissive begets dismissive... doesn't seem like a town perspective. I don't recall scab being naturally obstinant also.)
Cythare(Something about them gives me goosebumps. IDK what it is)
Scum
Vish (Not sure if his vote on Clan Dimir/Lasav was serious, but it's odd for so late in the game)
Koolkoal(reasons provided in ZDS's case. Also DKings points. ZDS says he likes his posts after that, I don't agree)
Karn(I'm not sure he DOES think Prophy is scum. Also Prophy's pretty town)
KA(Has a few of my strong town reads as scum. Also see AI reasons below)
AI(He DOES seem bitter this game, and I do recall him saying once he hates being scum. Not sure that MAKES him scum, though.826 is a scum post, however. He's claiming it was sarcasm? lol)
I'm ok with a Cythare lynch, but would prefer KA. In fact Vote Kami
@KamikazeArchon: What exactly did you like about killjoy's catchup analysis? He's done one catchup post with virtually zero impact on the game (also scumreading people that we cleared very easily).
I'm fine with moving forward on Cythare. My push on KoolKoal doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I don't want to be part of the Arch wagon while KoolKoal's on it. One of Cythare's responses I disliked (I'm not in the best position to push this). We really need to get a lynch moving.
Unvote ; Vote: Cythare
Huh? After the last couple of pages, KoolKoal is likely town, and if he *is* scum then he's almost certainly scum *with* KA - the way he's attacking KA strongly suggests that he actually believes KA is scum (there's a conviction there that's hard to fake and that he never showed in WitchHunt). In particular, I'm not sure why KK would bring up his "gotcha!" question in WitchHunt unless he's town who thinks he's caught another player doing the same thing he did.
Kami: ZDS and I had a communication error. Read the full exchange before tossing around "gotcha" questions.
Speaking of gotcha questions, Taredas, isn't this the same sort of question you caught me with in witchhunt?
Quote from Kami »
You go from saying "I didn't believe it" to "I don't recall reading it" in a single post. Explain.
Someone legitimately searching for tells wouldn't call someone scum for saying two completely opposite things in one post anyway. That isn't a scum tell or a town tell. Basically, kami came out of the gate reaching too hard to see me as scum. He did the same thing to Az, though not as obviously.
I don't think there's need for debate any more. Let's run him up.
Not on its own? I could see that particular question come from a townie who thinks that they might have spotted a mindset inconsistency but aren't sure about it - I ask that sort of thing all the time, usually when I see something I have trouble seeing from a townie but want to confirm/give them a chance to dig their own grave before going on the warpath (case in point: my initial comments on Atog here).
The rest of what KA has said, on the other hand, is another matter entirely:
ZDS: 1) I've been playing Mafia for many years. 2) In principle no. In this context yes. This isn't defending a town read in a vacuum, this is defending a very scummy town read based on pretty much the definition of WIFOM.
Az: See above.
KK: I didn't even register you as a major lynch supporter. The only person I saw being aggro on AI was Azrael.
My calculus says Az is the better lynch but I don't think I'm going to convince people by Friday. unvote vote Atog
KK: What meat? I saw a contradiction and poked at it. You gave an explanation that it was a misunderstanding. There's nothing more to say about that. The rest of the post is you attributing motives to me that I don't have. The only possible discussion of that is an "is not"-"is too" back-and-forth.
Proph: It seemed well-reasoned. It's a promising start. If it stops there it'll be a problem.
ZDS: There are degrees of scumminess and there are degrees of defense, and there are different reasons for defense. The problem with what Az did was a combination of how scummy Atog was, how Az defended him, and what the reasoning was (in particular, that it was direct WIFOM). You are talking as if I said something like "never defend scummy players", which is not the case.
Claiming the other person was aggressive first is not a demonstration that you were not aggressive.
Contradictions are a scum tell. I neither have nor need any other reason to call out contradictions.
Az's defense of Atog includes the line "I mean, he's clearly lying. He admitted he was lying. The question is whether he's lying about his lying, or he's lying about his lying about his lying." That's, like, the definition of WIFOM.
Given these posts... I probably bought the scum defense re: AI. From what I've looked at (WitchHunt, ST:MU3 and ISOs of older games), KA usually asks a bunch of questions as town - here he's only asking a few; moreover, KA's responded to Az's and KK's defense by trying to move the goalposts - which I haven't seen KA do as town, and that's *exactly* how he attacked Az in Deathspeaker and Tom in XKCD and he was scum in both of those games.
More to the point, while KA has never been in the *exact* situation that he would have to be in if he's town, he's been in similar, and he didn't act anything like this in those cases.
Speaking of claims, given that we're approaching deadline, I'm going to consider "lynch forerunner with less than 48 hours remaining" to be comparable to "L-2". If I'm in the lead tomorrow I will claim, and we should hold Atog to the same protocol.
just don't count Gruul votes double when doing this please.
I'm interested as to why everyone is just taking Cythare at face value that he's Orzhov.
Because we have literally nothing to prove/disprove that claim at this point in time maybe?
I realize that this approaches WIFOM territory, but I could see scum falseclaiming Orzhov early game to take advantage of the fact that the general attitude seems to be that a non-reveal lynch is useless early game (I agree).
Well obviously but this only works during the early game (D1, maybe D2, and almost impossible past D3), because we already have at this point at least one flip more information is bound to crop up from other roles maybe and as such the defense actually backfires on scum because they have now locked themselves on Orzhov
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@Everyone: One thing i want (but probably shouldn't) to point out is that you shouldnt clear me of suspicion for asking replacement and then deciding to stay, it feels kinda dishonest to be perfectly honest guys because it feels like you guys arent clearing me because of my behavior you are clearing me because of OoG info and then the mod asking me to reconsider because of game state, i mean great if it clears me and all that but asking to replace isnt solely a town thing to do scum can do it to so clearing me and AI in part because of asking to replace feels wrong to me.
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
2.a) You are working under the assumption that there is a mechanic that can clear ALL the Orzhov in one go so as to verify the alignments
2.b) If you are working under a "case by case" mechanic assumption, we are then hoping that the mechanic can provide the info fast enough to be of use to the town.
I'm almost certain there will be some way to break immortal servitude down the road, which is why I don't want to shy away from Cythare's wagon only because of his guild. 2b is basically the reason I want to lynch KA first.
3) You are talking about how you much prefer a guaranteed flip but you aren't really putting pressure on it anymore, it seems counter intuitive.
"Guaranteed flip" here is referring to the fact that that KA's guild isn't Orzhov, although I am very confident in my scumread on him and I've been reading that slot as such for most of the Day.
Quote from KA »
Speaking of claims, given that we're approaching deadline, I'm going to consider "lynch forerunner with less than 48 hours remaining" to be comparable to "L-2". If I'm in the lead tomorrow I will claim, and we should hold Atog to the same protocol.
I'm fine that that. I don't think it matters much since you're really close to being made to claim the old-fashioned way anyways. Note that I am voting for you and despite it not being officially registered I expect it to be counted. (I'm not counting extra gruul votes or obzedat.)
2.a) You are working under the assumption that there is a mechanic that can clear ALL the Orzhov in one go so as to verify the alignments
2.b) If you are working under a "case by case" mechanic assumption, we are then hoping that the mechanic can provide the info fast enough to be of use to the town.
I'm almost certain there will be some way to break immortal servitude down the road, which is why I don't want to shy away from Cythare's wagon only because of his guild. 2b is basically the reason I want to lynch KA first.
I am intentionally keeping you avvy as hidden as possible as i write this:
My problem here comes with the tone you are showing, its like at this point you are ok either way while at the same time talking about how one is better because it doesnt require a possible way to bypass game mechanics.
3) You are talking about how you much prefer a guaranteed flip but you aren't really putting pressure on it anymore, it seems counter intuitive.
"Guaranteed flip" here is referring to the fact that that KA's guild isn't Orzhov, although I am very confident in my scumread on him and I've been reading that slot as such for most of the Day.
Yes we are in agreement on what you meant by "guaranteed flip" my point was that the tone you are using is too soft, i would have expected you to actively campaign for people out of Cythare into KA given that the "D1 Orzhov Lynch Give us no info" angle is perhaps the most solid you are going to get and yet you arent using it to push someone who is the other popular wagon and WOULD give us the info the town needs. It feels, i dont know, like unwilling to commit or something.
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While i didnt want to vote AI after the spat we had I will vote Kami if it is needed to get a lynch today.
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I don't like what occurred with Cythare. If we think he's scummy enough to lynch, it makes no difference whether he'll reveal or not. As I and others have said, we're not going to spend all game wondering what his alignment was - at some point we'll find out, or figure it out. However, it appears that ship has sailed.
Just from looking at the people on the Atog wagon, I don't want that to happen. Cythare himself, who has contributed almost nothing and I don't think has made any significant push against Atog, not to mention that his case was on Azrael (in fact that whole case episode seemed very forced and had the look of someone who was posting an attack just to look like he was doing something.) Then there's pilot-fish Rhand and Invisible Snarker vish, snd AI/KA is also voting his erstwhile lynch rival.
If I had to pick one of those wagons, I'd pick...neither, but KA seems the more likely to be scum. It's not KA's play in particular, but remembered scumminess from AI, especially his non-response to a question I asked him about his lazy "zindabad perks up close to deadline" smear. So OK then.
@KJ
And just to be sure, did you leave Hans and AI on there specifically, as well as including Me and KA as the replacements? You kept the reads at least in the same sections but it just seemed odd, especially the placement of Hans and I not next to one another...
Also,
The replacements were in the scum section because of their previous players play in their slots. They were not "defaulted" there. I do not appreciate the misrep in that regard.
I did that on purpose, yes. It signifies that Hans/AI did specific things I disliked, while the replacements did others.
And re: the second thing. Can you point me to where you made a post saying those players were scum? And failing that, why your reason for us being there was only listed as "Give replacements time to catch up" with no reference to our previous players actions?
Okay, That makes more sense now, thank you.
My initial post I pointed to the fact that while I was a spectator and glossing over the thread, AI had looked awful to me. During my reread that did not change, hence why KA ended up in the scum section of the TS list.
I did not want to simply string the (fellow) replacements up simply because they replaced into a former player's anti town play. I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt, and see where they fell on the spectrum, much like how you answered in regard to your TS list. At the time, I hadn't really got much from you or KA, and I was waiting to see.
But the only place that specifically held any reads for me was the initial post and the TS list.
2.a) You are working under the assumption that there is a mechanic that can clear ALL the Orzhov in one go so as to verify the alignments
2.b) If you are working under a "case by case" mechanic assumption, we are then hoping that the mechanic can provide the info fast enough to be of use to the town.
I'm almost certain there will be some way to break immortal servitude down the road, which is why I don't want to shy away from Cythare's wagon only because of his guild. 2b is basically the reason I want to lynch KA first.
3) You are talking about how you much prefer a guaranteed flip but you aren't really putting pressure on it anymore, it seems counter intuitive.
"Guaranteed flip" here is referring to the fact that that KA's guild isn't Orzhov, although I am very confident in my scumread on him and I've been reading that slot as such for most of the Day.
Quote from KA »
Speaking of claims, given that we're approaching deadline, I'm going to consider "lynch forerunner with less than 48 hours remaining" to be comparable to "L-2". If I'm in the lead tomorrow I will claim, and we should hold Atog to the same protocol.
I'm fine that that. I don't think it matters much since you're really close to being made to claim the old-fashioned way anyways. Note that I am voting for you and despite it not being officially registered I expect it to be counted. (I'm not counting extra gruul votes or obzedat.)
FWIW, it looks like zindabad put Kamikaze at L-2 because Gruul.
If it is coming down to either Atog or Kamikaze, I'm going with Atog. I'm sticking to my earlier belief that AI's behavior mirrored his town behavior in Celestial, and more than one of my scum reads is voting Kamikaze.
Unvote
Vote Atogaholic
Kamikaze and Atog should probably both claim now. The deadline is in two days and I'm pretty sure there is enough interest to lynch either of them.
I strongly advise against mod-gaming how many scum are in each guild as Taredas suggested. That's just asking to be blown out by an unexpected scum grouping.
Not a huge fan of KJ's t/s list
I'm interested as to why everyone is just taking Cythare at face value that he's Orzhov. I realize that this approaches WIFOM territory, but I could see scum falseclaiming Orzhov early game to take advantage of the fact that the general attitude seems to be that a non-reveal lynch is useless early game (I agree).
This is actually why I spent so much time posting about Orzhov mechanics early on. I'm bound to get lynched at some point, since I can't help but be scummy, but wanted to discuss a way to counteract the mechanic if possible.
I'm interested as to why everyone is just taking Cythare at face value that he's Orzhov.
Because we have literally nothing to prove/disprove that claim at this point in time maybe?
I realize that this approaches WIFOM territory, but I could see scum falseclaiming Orzhov early game to take advantage of the fact that the general attitude seems to be that a non-reveal lynch is useless early game (I agree).
Well obviously but this only works during the early game (D1, maybe D2, and almost impossible past D3), because we already have at this point at least one flip more information is bound to crop up from other roles maybe and as such the defense actually backfires on scum because they have now locked themselves on Orzhov
Speaking of Atog's tone, it feels so different to what it was before his wagon that I am increasingly convinced he did not lie about trying to be lynch bait. I'm upgrading him to a town read, and those voting him should take his tone-shift into account (if you don't believe it matters, or you believe it's caused by something else, say why or what).
I see the tonal shift, but the content itself doesn't change my mind.
Speaking of Atog's tone, it feels so different to what it was before his wagon that I am increasingly convinced he did not lie about trying to be lynch bait. I'm upgrading him to a town read, and those voting him should take his tone-shift into account (if you don't believe it matters, or you believe it's caused by something else, say why or what).
I see the tonal shift, but the content itself doesn't change my mind.
I think that tonal shift could also just as easily be explained by Atog becoming more comfortable once he was facing less pressure.
I'm Aurelia, the Warleader. I am the Boros guildmaster.
I have three abilities:
1) Battalion. All the Boros know what this does and I'm not going to out their ability, save to say that it gets stronger the more of us use it on a single target. There is a possibility that there are no scum Boros, in which case we should keep further details hidden as long as we can.
2) As the guildmaster, when I use Battalion, I can spend charges to force other random Boros players to also target my target. I start with a certain number of charges, and gain extra charges each time another townie dies.
3) I have a death trigger. The effects are kind of like super-Battalion. I am not going to describe more details because it is still relevant even if I get lynched.
Az has stated that he's 100% certain of my scumminess, etc. Do not let him get away with "oops I was wrong, why was he so scummy?" tomorrow.
In the absence of the guildmaster ability, Boros will need to decide whether to explicitly coordinate Battalion or not. My current thinking is that it's still best to not explicitly coordinate and trust that fellow town Boros have reasonable trains of thought. In later parts of the game, explicit coordination might be useful to lock any potential scum Boros into actions, and watch for discrepancies.
I can agree with this logic. Kami has not impressed me in his responses. Cythare being Orzhov puts a damper on that lynch for today. I can wait for tomorrow to lynch Cythare.
Unvote
Vote Cythare
Unvote
Vote Kami
I'm not interested in a kamikaze or seperiel lynch.
I'd be down with a snurfy lynch, AZ brought up some valid points. I'm not sure I agree on his Kj, need to think about it.
Outdated Mafia Stats
I'm not on any fences, but the people I think are scum won't get lynched.
Cythare is Orzhov and therefor a bad lynch. We won't be able to do any interaction analysis toMorrow if we lynch him.
I don't care about the next Days, but I do not want an Orzhov lynch D1.
Gonna reread KoolKoal now.
Starting toMorrow I don't mind lynching Orzhov anymore.
I reread Koolkoal. He started out without time, making for some weird posts, but those are not alignment-telling for someone who doesn't have time to get into the game.
This post is concerning:
What he says there about Hawk is just not true. He never outright called him scum or said he wanted to lynch him.
That is literally the only thing I can find that could point towards him being scum.
His posting became better once he got pressured.
I don't want to lynch him based on just that.
You're right. I reread both Atog and Cythare.
I don't get scumvibes from Cythare.
Atog still reads as scum. I want to hear his claim.
unvote, vote Atog
I have a series of gut-type reads which I haven't followed up on. But, to name names, the people that have pinged the most are Atog; KA; Hans/Huntzilla; KoolKoal; Sir Karn; Snurfy/Killjoy. I am wary that a lot of these are the low posters and people who are just skating by. I want to give Az credit for all the attention he's paying to the game and the work he's doing, but it may take a flip or two until I feel comfortable with that, Az being Az. Rhand seems Town. Proph seems Town. Scarbo seems Town. I believe there was something about Sep. that made me think he was Town.
I am hopefully going to have a little time at least coming up to put more time into this before the deadline.
Vote Kamikaze Archon.
We need consolidation.
Town
Proph (This is townie Proph. He's engaged, thoughtful, not stubbornly sticking to his guns)
AE
Azreal (I don't see how his posting can come from a scum perspective. I see no deception)
Lean town
Hawk(I don't see how #214 likely comes from scum)
ZDS(Like his case on KoolKoal, other posts)
Speriel(Agree with Rhand)
Null
Zinda(Like his posting for the most part, but dislike how he thinks Hawk would be a good deadline lynch.)
Axel
Lean scum
Hans(has been weird all game.
Atog (I'm not liking the inconsistencies that Scar has been pointing ou such as in 258)
Hunt (Dislike his t/s list in 872. Major asskissing in his town reads, he also defaults replacements in Scum.
Rhand(I dislike his barning of Az in 755, especially since he doesn't seem to agree with that read.
Scar(Dismissive begets dismissive... doesn't seem like a town perspective. I don't recall scab being naturally obstinant also.)
Cythare(Something about them gives me goosebumps. IDK what it is)
Scum
Vish (Not sure if his vote on Clan Dimir/Lasav was serious, but it's odd for so late in the game)
Koolkoal(reasons provided in ZDS's case. Also DKings points. ZDS says he likes his posts after that, I don't agree)
Karn(I'm not sure he DOES think Prophy is scum. Also Prophy's pretty town)
KA(Has a few of my strong town reads as scum. Also see AI reasons below)
AI(He DOES seem bitter this game, and I do recall him saying once he hates being scum. Not sure that MAKES him scum, though.826 is a scum post, however. He's claiming it was sarcasm? lol)
I'm ok with a Cythare lynch, but would prefer KA. In fact Vote Kami
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Curse PremiumI don't understand why you were "convinced by Rhand" when you have Rhand as lean scum.
Cythare and Kami are the leading wagons right now. So I commented on them specifically. We have limited time to start up a new wagon, so I'm not gonna bother with anyone else before deadline.
Confusion and indecision right now is ideal for scum, so everyone needs to show up and be relevant. Just complaining that no one agrees with your reads is pointless noise.
I definitely remember saying "You're scum" to hawk.
Killjoy: on "Last 5+ pages" -> Did you read the whole thread or did you skip ahead a bit?
Also: you don't have dkings on your t/s list. Do you have an opinion on him?
And just to be sure, did you leave Hans and AI on there specifically, as well as including Me and KA as the replacements? You kept the reads at least in the same sections but it just seemed odd, especially the placement of Hans and I not next to one another...
Also,
The replacements were in the scum section because of their previous players play in their slots. They were not "defaulted" there. I do not appreciate the misrep in that regard.
The correct lynch is Atog. If you're going to make deadline decisions as X vs. Y, make it Atog vs. myself. No other useful wagon is going to complete in the time we have available.
Speaking of claims, given that we're approaching deadline, I'm going to consider "lynch forerunner with less than 48 hours remaining" to be comparable to "L-2". If I'm in the lead tomorrow I will claim, and we should hold Atog to the same protocol.
And DKings is lean town. I've liked his posting thus far.
I did that on purpose, yes. It signifies that Hans/AI did specific things I disliked, while the replacements did others.
And re: the second thing. Can you point me to where you made a post saying those players were scum? And failing that, why your reason for us being there was only listed as "Give replacements time to catch up" with no reference to our previous players actions?
He knows where the real scum are. If he doesn't go after both AI and Kami, he doesn't get bus credit.
I'm interested as to why everyone is just taking Cythare at face value that he's Orzhov. I realize that this approaches WIFOM territory, but I could see scum falseclaiming Orzhov early game to take advantage of the fact that the general attitude seems to be that a non-reveal lynch is useless early game (I agree).
I realize that we're past the days of "Lynch all Liars," but I can't agree with the points Az makes in his defense of Atog. Of the lynch candidates available, he feels scummiest to me.
Vote Atog
@MOD: votecount?
Atogaholic (6): Cythare, Axelrod, Scarbo, KamikazeArchon, Rhand, Vishamon
KamikazeArchon (6): KoolKoal, ZeDorkSlipeur, Huntzilla, Azrael, Killjoy*
Scarbo (1): Taredas
Zindabad (1): Archmage Eternal
KoolKoal (1): dkingsland967
Azrael (1): Obzedat
Prophylaxis (1): Sir Karn
Cythare (1): Prophylaxis
V/LA
N/A
Prod Watch
Archmage Eternal (5)
dkingsland (4)
Taredas (2)
zindabad (3)
dkings was V/lA. The rest of you are people who have been at least semi reasonable. I do not want to replace again this close to deadline. So, prods go out tomorrow. Failure to respond to prod will equal to replacement, as unfortunate as that is.
*This vote was not made on a new line. I happened to notice it and thus added it. Please remember to make all votes on a new line in the future.
No. There's a few implications of there likely being exactly one Mafia in Gruul:
- At most and likely exactly one of {Azrael, Atog, hans/Huntzilla, Killjoy, zindabad?} is Mafia (depending on whether or not Zindabad is actually Gruul); it's possible another is a neutral. Of those, I'm nearly certain Az is town - his tone is a dead-ringer for Cyan's Impossible A and now Deathbringer (in particular, the "step back and assess, then kick into PBPA mode" is classic town!Az), and he's not giving me the same heebie-jeebies he did as a scumbuddy in CT3 - but I find the rest scummy to varying degrees and they can't all be scum so at least two have to be scummy town rather than actual scum. (I thought hans was likely town pulling the "act scummy for reactions" gambit early, but I'm increasingly unsure about that - his lack of activity later is more typical of scum!hans and Huntzilla's defensiveness is concerning; zindabad is somebody I really need to find time to take a fine-toothed comb on, and his refusal to explicitly claim whether or not he is Gruul and dismissive response to my analysis are both extremely questionable if he is in fact Gruul [reminds me of dC dismissing my Hitman target analysis in Redux Mirror]; Atog's attacks read scum [but that *could* be explained by the "VI baiting scum", and he's drawn a lot of flak from questionable corners [AI/KA, scarbo, etc.] - at this point, I think he's the most likely scummy Gruul townie]; Snurfy was self-conscious and Killjoy has been lurky [and he's *not* giving me the heebie-jeebies, which is weird because I had them in ST:MU3 *and* Vagrant Story].)
- If a Gruul flips Mafia, all surviving Gruul are almost certainly not Mafia and probably town.
- If we can clear a couple of Gruul (through NKs/investigations/interactions with flipped players/etc.), then the remaining Gruul become considerably more likely to be Mafia. Likewise, if a bunch (3 or especially 4) non-Gruul Mafia flip, then the remaining non-Gruul players are *less* likely to be scum (if four non-Gruul Mafia flip, then the remaining Gruul are almost certainly not Mafia).
But more importantly: Why are you asking this in this way - and, in particular, why are you including the "start lynching Gruul until we lynch scum" at the end? Because that looks a lot like this post of KoolKoal's from WitchHunt:
In WitchHunt, KoolKoal loaded this question in order to try and make me look scummy. Here, you bring up "lynching Gruul until we hit scum" - and the logical implication of that line is that I am scum trying to chain mislynches ("One of these players is scum, let's lynch them until one flips scum!" is a stock scum trick to try to generate multiple mislynches - KoolKoal tried to pull that one in WitchHunt, too). Moreover, I don't see why you would include that line as town - it's more informative (in particular, less likely to be a false positive) if the player you ask brings it up on their own.
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Why am I not included in your reads list?
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Huh? After the last couple of pages, KoolKoal is likely town, and if he *is* scum then he's almost certainly scum *with* KA - the way he's attacking KA strongly suggests that he actually believes KA is scum (there's a conviction there that's hard to fake and that he never showed in WitchHunt). In particular, I'm not sure why KK would bring up his "gotcha!" question in WitchHunt unless he's town who thinks he's caught another player doing the same thing he did.
---
Not on its own? I could see that particular question come from a townie who thinks that they might have spotted a mindset inconsistency but aren't sure about it - I ask that sort of thing all the time, usually when I see something I have trouble seeing from a townie but want to confirm/give them a chance to dig their own grave before going on the warpath (case in point: my initial comments on Atog here).
The rest of what KA has said, on the other hand, is another matter entirely:
Given these posts... I probably bought the scum defense re: AI. From what I've looked at (WitchHunt, ST:MU3 and ISOs of older games), KA usually asks a bunch of questions as town - here he's only asking a few; moreover, KA's responded to Az's and KK's defense by trying to move the goalposts - which I haven't seen KA do as town, and that's *exactly* how he attacked Az in Deathspeaker and Tom in XKCD and he was scum in both of those games.
More to the point, while KA has never been in the *exact* situation that he would have to be in if he's town, he's been in similar, and he didn't act anything like this in those cases.
Unvote, Vote: KamikazeArchon
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
this was directed at you KJ. please react.
@Megs: You have me voting twice. I'm voting Atog.
just don't count Gruul votes double when doing this please.
Well obviously but this only works during the early game (D1, maybe D2, and almost impossible past D3), because we already have at this point at least one flip more information is bound to crop up from other roles maybe and as such the defense actually backfires on scum because they have now locked themselves on Orzhov
----------------------
@Everyone: One thing i want (but probably shouldn't) to point out is that you shouldnt clear me of suspicion for asking replacement and then deciding to stay, it feels kinda dishonest to be perfectly honest guys because it feels like you guys arent clearing me because of my behavior you are clearing me because of OoG info and then the mod asking me to reconsider because of game state, i mean great if it clears me and all that but asking to replace isnt solely a town thing to do scum can do it to so clearing me and AI in part because of asking to replace feels wrong to me.
<------ This is definitely not an ironic statement about my play this game.
Second,
Sep vote togs or kami. (vote kami)
"Guaranteed flip" here is referring to the fact that that KA's guild isn't Orzhov, although I am very confident in my scumread on him and I've been reading that slot as such for most of the Day.
I'm fine that that. I don't think it matters much since you're really close to being made to claim the old-fashioned way anyways. Note that I am voting for you and despite it not being officially registered I expect it to be counted. (I'm not counting extra gruul votes or obzedat.)
I have no problem voting either honestly.
I am intentionally keeping you avvy as hidden as possible as i write this:
My problem here comes with the tone you are showing, its like at this point you are ok either way while at the same time talking about how one is better because it doesnt require a possible way to bypass game mechanics.
Yes we are in agreement on what you meant by "guaranteed flip" my point was that the tone you are using is too soft, i would have expected you to actively campaign for people out of Cythare into KA given that the "D1 Orzhov Lynch Give us no info" angle is perhaps the most solid you are going to get and yet you arent using it to push someone who is the other popular wagon and WOULD give us the info the town needs. It feels, i dont know, like unwilling to commit or something.
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While i didnt want to vote AI after the spat we had I will vote Kami if it is needed to get a lynch today.
Just from looking at the people on the Atog wagon, I don't want that to happen. Cythare himself, who has contributed almost nothing and I don't think has made any significant push against Atog, not to mention that his case was on Azrael (in fact that whole case episode seemed very forced and had the look of someone who was posting an attack just to look like he was doing something.) Then there's pilot-fish Rhand and Invisible Snarker vish, snd AI/KA is also voting his erstwhile lynch rival.
If I had to pick one of those wagons, I'd pick...neither, but KA seems the more likely to be scum. It's not KA's play in particular, but remembered scumminess from AI, especially his non-response to a question I asked him about his lazy "zindabad perks up close to deadline" smear. So OK then.
vote: KamikazeArchon
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Okay, That makes more sense now, thank you.
My initial post I pointed to the fact that while I was a spectator and glossing over the thread, AI had looked awful to me. During my reread that did not change, hence why KA ended up in the scum section of the TS list.
I did not want to simply string the (fellow) replacements up simply because they replaced into a former player's anti town play. I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt, and see where they fell on the spectrum, much like how you answered in regard to your TS list. At the time, I hadn't really got much from you or KA, and I was waiting to see.
But the only place that specifically held any reads for me was the initial post and the TS list.
Are you going to "officially register" it soon?
If it is coming down to either Atog or Kamikaze, I'm going with Atog. I'm sticking to my earlier belief that AI's behavior mirrored his town behavior in Celestial, and more than one of my scum reads is voting Kamikaze.
Unvote
Vote Atogaholic
Kamikaze and Atog should probably both claim now. The deadline is in two days and I'm pretty sure there is enough interest to lynch either of them.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
I think that tonal shift could also just as easily be explained by Atog becoming more comfortable once he was facing less pressure.
Atogaholic (7): Cythare, Axelrod, Scarbo, KamikazeArchon, Rhand, Vishamon, dkingsland967
KamikazeArchon (9): KoolKoal, ZeDorkSlipeur, Huntzilla, Azrael, Killjoy, Taredas, Zindabad
Zindabad (1): Archmage Eternal
Azrael (1): Obzedat
Prophylaxis (1): Sir Karn
Cythare (1): Prophylaxis
V/LA
N/A
Prod Watch
Archmage Eternal (5)
Mid-day vote count. Remember that it is 11 to lynch.
AE will be prodded this afternoon.
I have three abilities:
1) Battalion. All the Boros know what this does and I'm not going to out their ability, save to say that it gets stronger the more of us use it on a single target. There is a possibility that there are no scum Boros, in which case we should keep further details hidden as long as we can.
2) As the guildmaster, when I use Battalion, I can spend charges to force other random Boros players to also target my target. I start with a certain number of charges, and gain extra charges each time another townie dies.
3) I have a death trigger. The effects are kind of like super-Battalion. I am not going to describe more details because it is still relevant even if I get lynched.
Az has stated that he's 100% certain of my scumminess, etc. Do not let him get away with "oops I was wrong, why was he so scummy?" tomorrow.
In the absence of the guildmaster ability, Boros will need to decide whether to explicitly coordinate Battalion or not. My current thinking is that it's still best to not explicitly coordinate and trust that fellow town Boros have reasonable trains of thought. In later parts of the game, explicit coordination might be useful to lock any potential scum Boros into actions, and watch for discrepancies.
Redirecting the rest of your guild could be a good ability for either alignment or both, depending on what battalion actually is.
I want the opinion of someone who's already claimed boros (axelrod? I don't remember)
Say we lynch you, does the town have any way of knowing what the death trigger is/was at some point in the game?