I'm not scum reading you sep. I just think hawk is town for his vote.
Thats not what i said tho, You stated you where OFF the Hawk Wagon, but you never joined it to begin with.
Except I also outright called him scum earlier, and said multiple times I was happy lynching him, so I was more committed to lynching him than you currently are committed to lynching me.
Also how is Hawk being town for his vote on me not scum reading me? that baffles the mind really.
Because the fact that he voted you doesn't matter. Its who he didn't vote in that exact situation that matters.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
Why say someone is horribly scummy but not scummy enough to vote?
I'd expect something like, his line of thinking is off, his posting style bothers me.
Horribly scummy is you painting KK as horribly scummy but only willing to lynch him of town run up his lynch for you.
@Taredas: Can you answer my question from my reread posts in page 14?
@Rhand: Not too convinced on it. One of the reasons why I'm townreading zindabad is a bit of a WiFOM-loop: zindabad is experienced enough to know that FoSing without a vote, and lightly pressuring multiple people without voting them is a scum tell. I think that the fact that he's doing that, coupled with the fact that he's inviting pressure on him, means that he's consistent with his own mindset.
Quote from ZDS »
I want Zindabad to do it. I believe so far Zindabad has been more unpleasant than actually scummy, and I want to see other things from him than him reacting poorly to everything.
Sure, that's fine.
Quote from Sepiriel »
I have no problem with the KK wagon, if its needed to move the wagon along or to finalize it i will shift my vote there, knowing that he is in the AI wagon also gives me misgivings on my opinion of AI (although to be honest i have been slowly shifting that opinion on my head the more i consider things based on prior experience).
Can you move your vote to the KoolKoal wagon? Please?
----
I think this Sepiriel vs hawk fight is pretty much a waste. Sepiriel is town, while hawk is currently null for me right now.
More people should vote KoolKoal. He hasn't responded to the pressure against him.
Kinda unmotivated to finish the hawk PBPA right now, but the long and short of it is that hawk is probably bad town with an outside shot of being scum.
I've seen zindabad suddenly perk up near a deadline before as scum. I believe it was Symbiote or Goo Mafia.
However, KoolKoal's reaction is causing me to second-guess that meta read. Sadly, I don't think lynching him is viable toDay.
I would still like Atog lynched. He hasn't done anything to convince me that he's town, and I don't think we can afford to have him as an unknown as the game continues.
Remind me why I would "perk up near a deadline" as scum in this situation? You and Atog were the only two wagons of any note, both going nowhere - that seems like the perfect situation for a scum to lurk his way to an easy mislynch. Not that my posting rate even increased. It's been holding steady at the same rate ever since I got prodded.
I'm playing diplomat here. I want you both to calm down. I'm sorry I don't let my reads affect too much how I talk to people, and I'm especially sorry I don't let your reads affect how I talk.
(I'm not actually sorry)
I didn't say anything about how you talk to people. I am saying that you have been noncommittal regarding both my attacks on AE and his on me, and that you appear to be coaching him in plain sight to stop attacking me and to do something productive, because his tunneling is making him look bad.
I must have imagined the quotes he provided, then.
The quote, you mean? This one?
Quote from zindabad
Don't have time to give this game my full attention, but - damn, AE, you've only been scum twice (besides this game, I mean)?
The quote from a five-year-old game that he then tries to relate to this statement that I made in this game?
Quote from zindabad
I think it would be a profitable exercise to look back at who started panicking when Az outed the Gruul mechanic. I think I detected a hint of that from AI.
Listen, he didn't even get his own meta right. He did catch me in Goo Mafia. But it wasn't with the quote he posted. It was in this post:
I don't feel good about joboman, but I read genuine frustration from Archmage Eternal here. Either joboman's town who's got scum AE cornered or joboman's scum who's getting on town AE's nerves.
Why not town joboman getting on town AE's nerves?
It's academic, of course, because AE is scum. How many times have I seen this pattern? Noob 26, Kithkin, Manga - compare them to town games where he gets rung up such as Cubus's Normal/Basic #9 and you will see the difference. unvote; vote Archmage Eternal.
Where I blindly assert that AE is playing exactly to his scum meta despite giving no evidence at all for this accusation. Don't believe me? OK, here's AE's own take on how he caught me in Goo Mafia, taken from Chosen Mafia (2012):
No, this is a simple fix. You come in and say 'yeah I'm always up for claims' or call bull**** and call me out on it. I then would show quotes. Thats what happened in Goo. You came in accusing and I demanded proof. When you had nothing thats when pressure started.
So he says in Chosen Mafia that the way he caught me in Goo was that I accused him falsely and he demanded proof, and I had none. True statement.
In this game, he says it was because I threw out a meaningless comment which he then tries to relate to my "hint of panic" comment about AI in this game. False statement.
He doesn't even have his own meta correct. The quote he provided for you is inaccurate. And here's the kicker - this was his initial reaction to when you asked him for explanation of his "catch":
Scum Zindabad will not commit, but will throw mud in hopes the town will run with it. He thinks he detected something but does not give any details. In fact there was no panick from AI. He was in favor of a guild claim and also said he was not Gruul
So, wait a second. I thought I'm scum when I falsely accuse people, at least, according to AE in Chosen. That doesn't fit the reason he provided in this game, which is "not commit[ting]" and "throw[ing] mud." Which one is it?
Next up, here are his responses to being asked to provide meta for his (mis)characterization of my scum game:
To Vishamon, he simply replies "No."
To ZDS, he replies "Something I remember. It's been sooo long now since we've played. But also notice how quiet he's been."
Here's his response as scum to being asked by Toastboy to provide quotes in Chosen Mafia:
Tell you what, if he [zindabad] disputes this [my meta accusations] I will get examples. OK?
Like in that game, when he is asked for specifics on his nebulous meta-based attacks on me, he declines to provide them. Then, in this game, when he finally does, the meta he gives isn't even correct, let alone relevant to this game.
So yes, ZDS, my original question stands: Did he explain anything? Do you know what happened in Goo Mafia?
Alright, I just finished reading over vish because every post of his made no impact on me. I'm feeling fine about vish and someone commented that if vish is scum, it will be apparent. It isn't apparent.
As far as AI goes, I think he did a very fair pbpa which means he is probably town. Yes I waited to post that Cythare because I didn't want him to see my view of him and have thay bias anything.
Anyways, atog saying that I'm town is something that I didn't expect. I assumed atog was scum and wad going to paint me.
Still waiting for you to confirm that you attacked the wrong player, or even to acknowledge my existence. The longer you wait to do so, the worse you look for reappearing in the thread and going "omg zindabad is so scum because of [attack that AE actually made]!!!!"
Zindabad has made it abundantly clear that he has no desire to defend himself. And if you and zindabad are in agreement that my case is garbage, what is there for zinda to defend himself against? You can't have it both ways.
No, I am making it clear that there is nothing to defend. That "case" was not worth the name. Despite that, I think you are town. If I didn't, I would be calling you to account for the lack of quotes, any sort of actual evidence based on what I said to back up your characterization of what I said, etc.
3) I can, and I will have it. The very fact your case is "garbage" means Zindabad should have a field day debunking it, if he actually wants to. And he should want to, since in his last wall of text he was ranting about Az and me not directly interrogating or pressuring him. Unless for some reason interrogation and pressure are only worth responding to when they come from Az or me.
On the contrary, scarbo posting an actual attempt to case me, however poor, made me think better of him. You, Az, and AE have made multiple allusions to how I am scummy and how I should be pressured/cased/investigated/interrogated/whatever word you choose to use for "someone else do the legwork." My response to that is "let's have it." Commit something to writing so that everyone can see what you have on me, and I can defend it. I expect that you aren't doing that because you know I am not going to be lynched and would rather take the path of least resistance, viz. AI. AE chooses not to because he knows I'm town and just wants the convenient excuse of attacking me in order to look like he's doing something, like desCoures in Inheritance Mafia. Case in point below:
Silly formatting. Unvote, Vote: AI.
Zinda analysis is next on the agenda, but when I get NK'd, I'm reserving my triumphant I told you so for the record.
The AI wagon is the epitome of a dead horse that he continues to beat. I'm "next on the agenda" (I thought it was a full reread with notes?), but he tries to insinuate that he is town with the "when I get nightkilled" comment, which of course was only a joke, as he posts a smiley face to remind us. Very subtle. Very Azrael. Very Littlefinger.
Azrael's view of the gamestate is an Atari in the age of the Xbox.
zindabad, the people voting you are doing so for poor/scummy reasons, so I think voting you at this juncture is a terrible idea. I don't necessarily town-read you, but I want KoolKoal and scarbo dead first.
The AI wagon is the epitome of a dead horse that he continues to beat. I'm "next on the agenda" (I thought it was a full reread with notes?), but he tries to insinuate that he is town with the "when I get nightkilled" comment, which of course was only a joke, as he posts a smiley face to remind us. Very subtle. Very Azrael. Very Littlefinger.
When your default setting is "criticize everything", you miss the kind of empathic understandings that are essential to reading people correctly.
Instead of someone changing their mind on what the highest priority for their analysis is, you accuse them of reneging.
Instead of someone trying to gracefully convey, without rancor, that they're going to transition to analyzing other wagons although they feel very strongly the town is making a mistake, you misread it as manipulation.
There are multiple ways of reading most posts, but lately, it seems like you're only aware of one possibility at a time. Lighten up and try not to assume the worst of people as a default, or you'll miss the subtleties that allow you to truly distinguish who is and isn't on your side.
You can read that as me trying to manipulate you into misreading me, or you can read it as exasperation with an annoying and ineffective playstyle that's not only led you to misread multiple players, but has led multiple players (including me, almost) to scum-read you out of sheer dislike for it. Your choice.
Azrael's view of the gamestate is an Atari in the age of the Xbox.
zindabad, the people voting you are doing so for poor/scummy reasons, so I think voting you at this juncture is a terrible idea. I don't necessarily town-read you, but I want KoolKoal and scarbo dead first.
I'm going to analyze other people besides AI, I promise, but this is yet another extremely scum-aligned post.
Those kinds of derogatory comments about players' cases are a classic scum emotional tell. Townies point out the holes in cases in a caustic manner all the time, but you can tell someone is scum when they go a step further to actually insulting the case, or the person making it. The townie mentality is to point out where the case went wrong, the scum mentality is to try to insure that no one thinks the case is good. Which do you see above?
The buddying comment with Zindabad is equally terrible, on multiple levels. Not only is he blatantly cozying up to Zind, his strongest defender as the misguided townie who single-handedly derailed AI's wagon, but he then characterizes voting against Zindabad as terrible without even having a town-read on him, while in the very next sentence he says he wants two other players dead first. As in, terrible idea to kill Zindabad, so he'd rather kill two other people first. He's keeping his options open to kill someone who he says it's a terrible idea to kill, and who was primarily responsible for saving him!
Can no one else see the glaring inconsistencies in this mindset? He's playing every side at once, and repeatedly refusing to commit himself to a static read. Too many of his posts are focused around leaving doorways open for him to attack players at a later time. Townies don't worry about that - they say what their current reads are and change them later on as they see fit. But scum are concerned with appearances, they don't want to be noticed changing a read on a dime in order to help someone to their death. So then you see posts like AI's, with a thousand different qualifiers appended to their reads: "now", "at first", "at this juncture", "for the moment", "I see reason A, but also point B makes a lot of sense".
AI's wording is literally screaming that he's operating under a scum mentality. That's not twisting, it's not tunneling, that's just paying attention to detail and using time-honored wording analysis technique that has caught scum time and time again. He WILL flip scum.
The only one of my own scumreads that I'm still sure of at this point is Snurfy, and with him been replaced there's no point in pursuing that one toDay.
I'm going to go against my own instincts and trust Azrael's.
Mini Prod Watch
I didn't do a full activity check. I just looked at those on the previous prod watch. None of those players are in danger of being prodded. Don't get complacent, though!
A deadline extension has been requested. As I suggested, I think it's appropriate to grant this given the game state and the two recent replacements.
Deadline extension A has been used. It is no longer available for this game.
The deadline is now Friday, April 3, 11:59 PM EDT
Please be guided accordingly.
I don't believe I was voting at this time....
but if for some reason I was, then
It strikes me as off that Huntzilla is so fixated on defense even when there's no vote currently on him, and he still needs to catch up. Might just be him newbing it up, though.
That does give me cause to worry. I generally don't like it when people "read at both ends" as it colors their re-read and makes it less visceral.
Protip everyone in the Gruul clan should hop on the Sepiriel wagon.
He didnt clap but this was his way of letting you all know he was Gruul. I cant say it was good, but if you go back and read page 1 you will see it was obvious Hansa was hinting at his Gruulness...
Dkings trying to potray Hansa as hiding information makes Dkings a LIAR.
@Proph,
I was working up to this revelation.
(Had to remove a bunch of non latin for this to post)
With Huntzilla claiming Gruul (bringing us up to four claimed Gruul), it's time to explain why I wanted any unclaimed Gruul to claim earlier. (Though in retrospect, considering how easy the Gruul ability is to test for I'm not sure why I bothered? Oh well.)
I'm assuming that the Mafia not only know what the clan abilities are but *have access to them*. Partially that's because the Mafia would be too easy to PoE out if they couldn't have clan abilities (given that Bloodrush is easily provable in thread and Boros is potentially provable if/when people start claiming targets), partially that's because Immortal Servitude makes more sense if the Mafia can have access to it (it's possible that Megiddo designed Immortal Servitude about tension over whether a player who didn't alignment flip was Orzhov or scum with an alignment-hiding ability, but *only* if guilds aren't revealed on death, and Occam's Razor and the other two mechanics suggest otherwise).
Given that, for game balance reasons it is likely that there are exactly three Gruul town (almost certainly no more than four) and almost certainly no more than one Gruul Mafioso. Four Gruul town is *possible*, but I think it's only possible if there's a fifth, Mafia Gruul as well - a four-man all-town Gruul group would be roughly equivalent to a quadruple voter, and that's difficult to balance even in a 20-player game. Two Gruul town is possible, but I don't think it's terribly likely at 20 players? A Gruul neutral is also possible, even probable if there's a fifth Gruul.
(Corollary: Gruul is the most likely guild to be smaller than average, by a sizeable margin.)
That's been guiding my play for most of the Day - I find Atog and snurfy/Killjoy scummy in a vacuum and Zindabad questionable (and it's even worse now - my early town read on hans/Huntzilla is shot given hans's "big post" and not claiming Gruul explicitly), but... at most two of them are scum, and that's only if there's an anti-town neutral.
More shortly, pushing this out now to avoid a prod.
Um, is this it? This is what you've been waiting all game to spit out? Some mod-gaming?
This is an FTQ with literally not even a single role claimed yet. I wouldn't assume that you have Megiddo's balancing figured out based on no information at all.
Having an unpleasant attitude is a very reliableway to get yourself lynched regardless of alignment, and Zindabad's attitude is veryunpleasant (particularly after his last big post that was full of negativity, and his dismissal of Scarbo's PBPA).
Azrael gets townie points for not opportunistically jumping on the wagon himself, when he could very easily do so without attracting attention.
The last time I was mislynched was in 2010. If you think I'm town (null is about all you're willing to commit yourself to), then I wouldn't worry yourself too much about me getting lynched, no matter how "unpleasant" you find me.
I do have to agree with your comment on Az, though. I appeared to be in a weak position and him coming in with a PBPA that concluded I was scum may well have tipped the scales, considering the degree to which certain players appear to be blindly following him. Maybe he thinks I'm volatile enough to keep around as mislynch fodder later on, but I doubt that.
1. Still waiting for you to acknowledge you attacked me instead of AE in what I generously assume to be a case of mistaken identity.
2. Still waiting for you to provide content.
As far as deadline lynches go, I would be up for hawk, I think.
Azrael's view of the gamestate is an Atari in the age of the Xbox.
zindabad, the people voting you are doing so for poor/scummy reasons, so I think voting you at this juncture is a terrible idea. I don't necessarily town-read you, but I want KoolKoal and scarbo dead first.
That comment has nothing to do with what I posted. I asked you to remind me why I would perk up as scum in this situation, which is what you appeared to imply by posting "I think I've seen zindabad perk up as scum near a deadline before. Maybe in Goo Mafia, or Symbiote." I say imply because you of course did not provide evidence for that statement or even appear to know, like AE, what game/post you were referring to.
The more I re-read this post, the more I suspect you. Your comment about Az's view was nothing but slander. It was just a straight-up attempt to discredit him. And the fact that you name two low-hanging fruit as your two top "want them dead" people (not even suspects) also does not inspire confidence.
The AI wagon is the epitome of a dead horse that he continues to beat. I'm "next on the agenda" (I thought it was a full reread with notes?), but he tries to insinuate that he is town with the "when I get nightkilled" comment, which of course was only a joke, as he posts a smiley face to remind us. Very subtle. Very Azrael. Very Littlefinger.
When your default setting is "criticize everything", you miss the kind of empathic understandings that are essential to reading people correctly.
Instead of someone changing their mind on what the highest priority for their analysis is, you accuse them of reneging.
Instead of someone trying to gracefully convey, without rancor, that they're going to transition to analyzing other wagons although they feel very strongly the town is making a mistake, you misread it as manipulation.
There are multiple ways of reading most posts, but lately, it seems like you're only aware of one possibility at a time. Lighten up and try not to assume the worst of people as a default, or you'll miss the subtleties that allow you to truly distinguish who is and isn't on your side.
You can read that as me trying to manipulate you into misreading me, or you can read it as exasperation with an annoying and ineffective playstyle that's not only led you to misread multiple players, but has led multiple players (including me, almost) to scum-read you out of sheer dislike for it. Your choice.
Thank you for that patronizing post. Let me make something clear: it's day 1. Nobody is "on my side." I unequivocally trust maybe 5 players, past and present, on this site, and none of them are in this game. Secondly, I'm not particularly bothered, as you may have noticed, about who's being annoyed or dislikes my playstyle. I'm not going to get lynched and I'm not trying to win any friends here - that's for scum. Your emphasis on politics and influence over evidence is one of the things that makes me instantly distrust your posts. They always read like you're trying to charm your listeners into following you rather than demonstrating logically why they should agree with you - and they read like that even when you are producing evidence. Maybe it comes from being a lawyer. Maybe it's all in my own head. I don't know. It does nothing for me, though, and that's why I liken you to Littlefinger. The Pied Piper would do as well.
Speaking of evidence - would you like to comment on what I posted about AE's use of bogus meta to attack me in this game?
The only one of my own scumreads that I'm still sure of at this point is Snurfy, and with him been replaced there's no point in pursuing that one toDay.
I'm going to go against my own instincts and trust Azrael's.
unvote, vote AI
A moment ago you were starting to distrust Az. Now it's back to sheeping him. Which is it?
Thank you for that patronizing post. Let me make something clear: it's day 1. Nobody is "on my side." I unequivocally trust maybe 5 players, past and present, on this site, and none of them are in this game. Secondly, I'm not particularly bothered, as you may have noticed, about who's being annoyed or dislikes my playstyle. I'm not going to get lynched and I'm not trying to win any friends here - that's for scum. Your emphasis on politics and influence over evidence is one of the things that makes me instantly distrust your posts. They always read like you're trying to charm your listeners into following you rather than demonstrating logically why they should agree with you - and they read like that even when you are producing evidence. Maybe it comes from being a lawyer. Maybe it's all in my own head. I don't know. It does nothing for me, though, and that's why I liken you to Littlefinger. The Pied Piper would do as well.
Speaking of evidence - would you like to comment on what I posted about AE's use of bogus meta to attack me in this game?
I doubt AE's use of bogus meta is particularly alignment indicative. Those types of factual mistakes are rarely purposeful.
It's certainly not in my head. I try to be cheerful and good-natured because that's the kind of person I'd like to be. And I'm having fun. so it simply comes naturally to me, and that was my MO long before I ever dreamt of making the mistake of going to law school. And I definitely don't picture myself as someone who values rhetoric, politics, or influence over logic. That's how I picture everyone who chooses to argue with me and gets the better of me - naturally.
Especially considering how poorly I do at any sort of politics or influence IRL. The written word is probably the only medium in which I excel at communicating and influencing people. In live settings, I'm usually the person in the back of the room mentally facepalming at whatever ridiculous notions the more socially connected nincompoop in charge is ramming down our collective throats, wishing that I had the ability to summon words that would save us from the iceberg bearing down on us.
At any rate, my argument has very little to do with encouraging you to win friends and influence people (TM), and a great deal more with (patronizingly) encouraging you to recalibrate your current style of analysis, since it's misreading me on about seven different spectrums, including temperament, alignment, the comparative weight that I put on evidence in my PBPAs, plus about four other utterly redundant synonyms that amount to describing who I am as a person.
I know who I am. And I've seen what you say about who I am, and what you say about other people. And I don't think you're right about them, or me. If it's patronizing to tell you that, so that you can tackle it and become a better player, then paint me with that brush. To my mind, that would be the logical course for you to take - to regard it as nothing more than a recommendation from a teammate, and not as an insult to your intelligence or ability.
I will support wagons on Scarbo, Sir Karn (though I don't have high expectations of a wagon actually happening on either of these two toDay), KoolKoal (because /barn Proph) and AI.
Vote: KoolKoal
So what's your reasoning for supporting both my and AI's lynch as your foremost candidates when I was one of the first people on his wagon? I would expect you to pick just one of us at this point (probably me, since you voted me).
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
@Zindabad: I have just been caught as scum by Azrael in Deathspeaker mafia with a case that would have never convinced me to vote myself if I were town.
But he was correct that I was scum.
I distrust him because his reads are the opposite of mine this game. If he's town, AI will flip scum and I won't doubt him again. If AI flips town, I'll be all over Az toMorrow.
@Zindabad: I have just been caught as scum by Azrael in Deathspeaker mafia with a case that would have never convinced me to vote myself if I were town.
But he was correct that I was scum.
I distrust him because his reads are the opposite of mine this game. If he's town, AI will flip scum and I won't doubt him again. If AI flips town, I'll be all over Az toMorrow.
So you allow no possibility that he is simply wrong? Either he's town, and if he is, he's 100% correct and AI is scum. and if he isn't, he's 100% a liar and AI is town. Is that right?
Same boat that Zindabad was in earlier - I have a long post typed, saved, and ready to go, but it's throwing up the "Non-Latin Unicode characters are not allowed" error and I can't figure out why (maybe something to do with quoting a couple of posts from before the Curse move?). I've asked for help in the relevant tech support thread and will post it ASAP.
More or less yes. In my experience, town!Az doesn't tunnel. And his reads are amazing. So the chance on him being just wrong is tiny.
Okay, well, this is just silly. I can't believe you are actually serious here. You are saying "If Az is Town, he's right." Therefore, I will go along regardless of whether I agree. If the player named instead flips Town, then Az must be scum (because Town Az would have been right....)
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I have a lengthy checklist of players/interactions I have to go over, which includes, in no particular order:
AE vs. Zindabad
AI all over again
Koolkoal
Snurfy/Replacement
7Hawk vs. Sep.
I would like Taresdas to answer my question when he actually posts.
I would like Atog to post again period.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
ZDS's case on KoolKoal is legit (he even skipped the "its nice to have options" post, which is the primary reason why I scumread him in the first place).
People who have indicated interest in voting for him (AI, Sepiriel) should vote for him.
Scarbo, that wasn't even worth responding to. You can't even keep AI and AE straight. Come back when you have something worth my time.
This feels a lot like a scum post.
Please explain why you feel that way.
A couple reasons - you use a somewhat minor point to avoid addressing it, and the "come back when you have something worth my time" feels to me like something similar to CFTWR. There's also the dismissal out-of-hand tone, but I think that may just be a style thing that I can't see past.
@KoolKoal: Man it's almost like it's impossible to have more than one scumread or something.
@zindabad: I've made it clear that I have no intent of engaging with Azrael. At this point his arguments are so ridiculous that I don't care if I'm slandering him. Even if he's town, people would be foolish to listen to him.
@ZDS: I don't think anyone seriously thinks hawk is a viable lynch candidate at this point. Demonstrating that he is town would be a wasted effort.
@Proph: I'd settle for KK but I'd rather lynch Atog.
@Everyone who thinks Azrael's word is gospel: Wake the **** up.
More or less yes. In my experience, town!Az doesn't tunnel. And his reads are amazing. So the chance on him being just wrong is tiny.
Okay, well, this is just silly. I can't believe you are actually serious here. You are saying "If Az is Town, he's right." Therefore, I will go along regardless of whether I agree. If the player named instead flips Town, then Az must be scum (because Town Az would have been right....)
Protip everyone in the Gruul clan should hop on the Sepiriel wagon.
He didnt clap but this was his way of letting you all know he was Gruul. I cant say it was good, but if you go back and read page 1 you will see it was obvious Hansa was hinting at his Gruulness...
The insinuation that was a Gruul claim is extremely tenuous, especially considering that hans expressed his love for speed lynches shortly after that post. Also, echoing Proph that your defensive stance out of the gates is not in your favor.
Partially that's because the Mafia would be too easy to PoE out if they couldn't have clan abilities (given that Bloodrush is easily provable in thread and Boros is potentially provable if/when people start claiming targets),
The only one of my own scumreads that I'm still sure of at this point is Snurfy, and with him been replaced there's no point in pursuing that one toDay.
I'm going to go against my own instincts and trust Azrael's.
unvote, vote AI
A moment ago you were starting to distrust Az. Now it's back to sheeping him. Which is it?
/barn this. And his circular logic in defense of this position makes no sense.
Also, Rhand's dislike of the extension is noteworthy. Scum hate it when early days drag on.
Sorry, we're out of luck. All of my completed town games are on a flamingo offsite that no longer exists. I can say that in Gym Leader Mafia, I also employed a reaction gambit that I used to catch the player who proph would eventually replace. KK, Karn, and Vish might have been in that game, I don't remember exactly. Proph was definitely in that game and should be able to confirm this.
So it was 2/3 years ago, and I don't remember anything but the late game. Your gambit was almost certainly against someone with no experience or maybe 1 game of experience.
KK says Atog could be "noobing it up", but it certainly appears he knows Atog from another site and knows he is not a noob to mafia at all.
KK pushed Atog and AI as scum most of the day, but was firmly in favor of lynching AI throughout and didn't back down from this until it became obvious that lynch wasn't going to go through. In post 634 he said that read had weakened, but never offered any reasoning for it.
I'm fine with this lynch. If KK flips scum it pretty much town!firms AI, and there is a damn good chance that Atog is a buddy.
At that point Atog had already explained he only supported the Vishamon wagon (which was the reason KK had a scum read on him) as part of a Cunning Plan. Did KK buy this defense? Who knows.
Flash forward to recent times, Axel and Azrael are having a debate about the sincerity of this line of defense from Atog. KoolKoal has every reason in the world to add his two cents. He doesn't.
I didn't believe it. If he hadn't pulled it out as a sudden sidestep to his growing wagon, then it would have been believable. Instead its an easy excuse that's meant to clear him completely and could be said about any post that looks bad.
As for the current togs discussions, I've stayed out because, as I said in my big convoluted response to prophy, I need to reread my lynch candidates. Togs especially since he's just prod-dodging at this point. I didn't feel I had anything useful to add to the discussion.
I'm trying to do a new posting style in this game because of the convoluted posts you mentioned. I'm attempting to post short and sweet and only what's necessary. I don't seem to be doing a good job of including everything relevant though.
It's not that he could be wrong, it's that games themselves aren't that easy. Again, whatever happens in the end is not his responsibility.
I don't see the difference. Does it really matter if I'm wrong because I've got bad reads/I'm bad at mafia/etc compared being wrong because big mafia games are hard?
I joined the big mafia game, so I need to play my best even if it is hard (or replace out if I can't). And anyway, being wrong isn't the same as being scum. Maybe I missed the main point, but it doesn't make sense to me.
KoolKoal:
1) What is your current read on Atog?
2) Why haven't you commented on Atog's Vishamon defense, or on Az and Axel's discussion of it?
3) Why be so ridiculously convoluted and indirect in 634?
1. Currently leaning scum with the read in desperate need of a refresher course. The reason I've fallen off a bit is because my scum read of AI continues to grow.
2. Honestly, I don't even recall reading Atog's Vishamon defense, and I just scrolled back half the thread and couldn't find it. Show me? As a general statement that might answer your question faster: I don't think there's much point to carefully picking over someone's defense of obvtown. You might find a scumslip or something I guess, but I think you usually will find nothing alignment indicative.
I already answered the second half above.
3. Its a bad habit I have. I flower up my writing with useless fluff without realizing it. Like I said, I'm trying to combat it so other players can understand what I'm trying to say. Miscommunication has been a problem in pretty much every one of my past games.
There was a growing wagon on me, and hawk derailed it by suddenly voting someone who expressed interest in it. I'd expect scum to get excited and hop on board the express train to Claimsville, possibly continuing on to Lynchburg (which is what my wagon appeared to be at that point).
It could be a bus, or I could be wrong about either (or both) of you. Either way, I don't agree with the "enemy of my enemy" line of thinking.
It could be a bus, but you said that I voted him when there was no real wagon on AI yet. Seems like a very ballsy bus to me.
If you could be wrong about either or both of us, I'd expect you to at least say "this koolkoal thing has me doubting my AI read somewhat, I'll decide on one soon" or something. Instead you just put both of us equally out there which feels wrong.
dkings: Togs is fairly nooby. Our games on another site were one or two games for clan flamingo. Almost everyone was super-duper nooby in those games.
I'm not familiar with how often togs has played since, but I think it is very little.
I also pretty clearly said my read had only weakened, and all my old reads weakened equally, because I haven't been paying close enough attention to the thread and need a reread. Misrep.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
@KoolKoal: Man it's almost like it's impossible to have more than one scumread or something.
Man, its like saying you want certain people dead first means you should be voting one of them rather than a third scumread who didn't even warrant mentioning in the post. Must be such a strong read you have on Togs for you to completely forgot about him for that post
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
@KoolKoal: Man it's almost like it's impossible to have more than one scumread or something.
Man, its like saying you want certain people dead first means you should be voting one of them rather than a third scumread who didn't even warrant mentioning in the post. Must be such a strong read you have on Togs for you to completely forgot about him for that post
"First" relative to zindabad, obviously, considering I am basing his alignment on yours. If all you've got on me is a misrepresentation, then you've got literally nothing.
I'm inclined to agree with dk that Atog is more likely to get replaced than lynched, which means it'll probably be you who gets strung up instead. But by all means continue to flail about.
A power surge just destroyed my reread summary. Luckily it's still fresh in my mind, but I won't be able to relate it to the specific posts until I go back to individual PBPAs of the subjects.
I feel like I've got an excellent grasp on all the minor players now and have identified numerous new strong town reads and a number of likely scum reads. New reads are in bold.
Strong Town Reads - Not Likely to Change - 9
Azrael -obv 77Hawk7 - Strong town read on several of his posts, including one where it was very evident in a reference to his player notes that he's forming his genuine reads. Has been attacked opportunistically by several probable scum. Axelrod - Was generally reading Axel as town, and one of his posts in particular where he charted out his precise chain of thought was HEAVILY pro-town. hansanator* Huntzilla - Hans had a number of short but sweet posts that read as strong town.
Proph - Has been extremely active and detailed in analysis, providing genuine content and reads. There is no way he's scum.
Rhand - See above. Scarbo - A number of scarbo's posts also had some really good earnest/honest tells in them, such as his efforts to get Obzedat lynched. I don't see me changing that read, either.
Sepiriel - Heavily pro-town as identified in his defense against the wagon.
dkingsland967 - Once he kicks into his large analysis posts, you can definitely see a pro-town mindset peeking through. The first that I noticed was the one that came right after Axelrod said he could never trust him again. I, for one, am comfortable doing so.
ZeDorkSlipeur - Excellent, on-point, genuine analysis.
I would be VERY surprised if anyone on the above list is scum, and will fight tooth and nail against any lynch involving any of these ten players. (And, queue nightkill.)
Rhand, Proph, and ZDS have all been doing good analysis work and are probably likely targets for scum hate.
Weak Town Reads- 3
Vishamon - Weak town read on early posts. Would be stronger if his lurk were less strong. In terms of trajectory, though, I fully expect him to produce enough town posts to confirm him as game progresses.
zindabad* - Reading him as town in what we have despite the attitude. Could feasibly be a strong town read, but given his ability and the lack of as many confirmatory tells as other players, and some anti-town tendencies, in the weak category for now.
Atogaholic* - Keeping an eye on him for future interactions that will hopefully be less muddy than his early ones.
Out of the weak town category, Atog is the only person I consider as a likely candidate for a read-change, but based on wagon dynamics, I'm skittish there.
Null-
KoolKoal - Only player who has yet to post sufficient content in sufficient amounts to generate any sort of read.
Weak Scum Read-
Taredas* - Taredas is the kind of formiddable player who isn't necessarily easy to get a face-value read on. In looking over his posts, you see a lot of longer analysis posts that are more difficult to accurately parse. I saw only a small number of tells that I'd view as confirmatory town, and I had some concerns that he might be being a little slick at several points. For instance, he started off voting for AI very strongly, but backed off of AI citing an explanation for AI's behavior that he didn't want to explain. I'm pretty sure I know what he's suggesting there, but I don't know that I agree that it was reasonable for Taredas to think that. Taredas, why did you unvote AI?
I don't necessarily expect my Taredas weak scum read to stick. But if I'm wrong about someone being town, I'd look at him first as the most likely candidate for an analyst who's on the wrong side of the fence.
Strong Scum Reads -
Archmage Eternal - Zinda was on to something, here. I'm naturally biased against AE wagons given his history, but I'm very unhappy with his posting style here. It's very truncated and minimialistic. He uses very short sentences to talk about very simple ideas, then disappears from view without addressing any of the topics of note that the remainder of the town is discussing. No confirmatory town tells, which he ordinarily gives off regularly. It's as if he's decided his appropriate level of contribution to the thread will be poking his head in every once in a while with a complaint about Zindabad, and he's unable to fake a town mindset in any more detail than that.
Cythare - Here and on Sir Karn is where I'm really missing having my notes available. Cy was en early lurker. After he finished lurking, he made a number of moves I'm not happy about, low-explanation votes, attacks on probable town players, and no confirmatory town tells. He also made a number of moves to subtly discourage the AI wagon, while simultaneously not ruling out the ability to hop onto it. You can almost see him hovering on the edges of the wagon, having indirect conversations with people about it, as he contemplates whether to hop on for a bus, or not.
Sir Karn* - Sir Karn launched a number of scattershot, overly aggressive attacks on about seven different players in his opening posts. He's kept to a similar pattern - most of his posts are attacking some weaker, more vulnerable but likely town player. No confirmatory town tells, and much like AE, he's kept to a very minimalistic, truncated playstyle. He's trying not to give out much information to get an accurate read on him, and not talking about any of the notable topics of conversation that he ought to be addressing.
Snurfy8* Killjoy - Snurfy's post 233 and...I want to say 286 had some tells buried in them. Proph and I discussed the tells in 233 already - 286 smacked of Smurfy being either Simic or scum, in the way that he was ruminating about who should claim or not. Don't much care for how much he focused on that over reading people as scum, and his few votes were very unconvincing and poorly targeted as well. Killjoy's reads on entering the thread were also off-balance. He had a lot of people not being read as town who have been easy town reads for most players, and both Karn and AI made it onto his highest level of town read, for reasons that were pretty superficial. I don't buy his reads as genuine.
Head Will Literally Explode if he is not Scum -
AsianInvasion - There is no conceivable way that this player slot is town. Period. Nearly all the town's most detailed analysts, myself, ZDS, Axelrod, Zinda, and Taredas have all pinpointed extremely disturbing aspects of his play at one time or another. The wagon failed not because those original reads were off, but because Axel, Zinda, and Taredas all found reasons to doubt and second-guess their original reads, and a number of players made efforts to kill the wagon's momentum. On my reread, I noticed additional anti-town aspects to AI's play, such as his PBPA vs probable town Hawk, and suspicious interactions with other candidates I've identifed as probable scum, such as several instances in which Cy subtly discourages AI's wagon and seeks to push other alternatives, such as Hawk.
This is one of the rare wagons where my level of certainty approaches 100%.
Summary
Asian is definite scum. I'm also pretty confident in Cythare, Scarbo/Killjoy, Sir Karn, and AE rounding out the scum team. We have a ton of players who gave me good, solid townie confirmations, and in the remaining category there is a web of suspicious interactions and people who are not only failing to confirm themselves, but are committing scum tells left and right. I'm prepared to call this game largely solved at this point, and I view my remaining task in the time I have left before being night-killed is to double-check those reads and lay out the cases in detail. I have the same level of confidence in these reads as I had in my analyses from CIM, Clue, Deathspeaker, and MTGS Redux 2.
Again, your scum-team is Asian, Cythare, Scarbo, Sir Karn, and AE.
Your townies are Az, Axelrod, Hawk, Dkings, Huntzilla, Proph, Rhand, Sepiriel, ZDS. Zindabad and Vish can be safely lumped in there.
Have I? I've made no indication I want to jump on the AI wagon, and I don't plan on changing my mind on this.
You had a conversation with ZDS earlier in the thread where you were asking about his reasons for being suspicious of AI. Later on, you mentioned a few players that you'd rather lynch than AI. You never signaled intent to vote him, but you laid the groundwork necessary for you to launch a bus if the wagon progressed far enough.
Have I? I've made no indication I want to jump on the AI wagon, and I don't plan on changing my mind on this.
You had a conversation with ZDS earlier in the thread where you were asking about his reasons for being suspicious of AI. Later on, you mentioned a few players that you'd rather lynch than AI. You never signaled intent to vote him, but you laid the groundwork necessary for you to launch a bus if the wagon progressed far enough.
You mean this one, where I'd indicated that I had a scumread on ZDS? I responded to one of his points, saying that it wasn't an alignment tell for AI, and told him that I wanted his take rather than yours on the AI wagon because I didn't want him to hide behind your analysis.
Also I think it sends the wrong message that people are in voting atog when responses are necessary. It's showing that not participating is a valid defense.
ZDS is the only one that actually unvoted Atog. The rest of the recent unvotes were on other players.
I do believe we have enough real and virtual votes on Atog for a claim. Let's hear it.
Why are you in such a hurry?
I'm getting bored and want to lynch someone I'm pretty sure is scum.
This might be the first time I've seen someone claim we should lynch because they are bored, outside of when the game pace is slow and everyone is bored.
In my experience, this isn't alignment-telling for AI.
About AI: I didn't think much of him at the time (and before) Azrael started to poke him, because his posting history was full of reasonable-yet-not-telling-either-way comments. I also don't know what to make of his interaction with Azrael; it's like he simultaneously doesn't want to ignore him, but also doesn't want to engage him too frontally.
Then the Atog situation happened, and AI suddenly became extremely overzealous, perhaps irrationally so at times. This level of absolute certainty in Atog's scumness and willingness to ignore (or, just recently, outright brush away) doubt makes me think we might be seeing hot scum on scum bussing action; his recent comment where he taunts Vish to lynch either of them (ie Ai or Atog) comforts me a little in this thought (whichever of the two gets lynched, it will clear the other; or at least that's the idea).
There's also the possibility AI is scum and Atog is town, in which case AI's overzealousness comes from fearing Atog might not get lynched after all, or at least not before Az has the time to spearhead the counter-wagon on him (AI) he's been hinting at for a while.
The third option (AI is town, Atog's alignment is irrelevant) is always an option, but I don't know how to explain AI's recent behaviour if he is town. I suppose he could be hardcore tunneling Atog, but his way of doing things his strange. Typically, when a townie tunnels, they will address and try to dismantle every opinion that contradicts theirs. Instead, AI has been bringing attention to the (real or imagined) pressure on Atog, and downplaying the counter-argument to the Atog wagon without properly trying to counter them.
AI also made some questionable posts before all this, like barn-voting Vishamon for his Sepiriel vote (when AI himself was also voting Sepiriel), or being on the defensive in 230 (and barning Rhand in regards to dkingsland, adding that his post was "astonishingly scummy", which is a big exaggeration, unless he's easily astonished). I'll let Az have the pleasure of going through these though, since (again) my read on AI mostly comes from his interactions with Atog.
To summarise, the most likely option in my opinion is that both AI and Atog are scum, and the least likely option is that AI is town.
Right now however, even though I am more positive AI is scum than I am about Atog, I would still like us to solve the Atog situation and reach a consensus about whether to lynch him before I start to push AI (I would say "before we start to push AI", but you guys can take your own decisions). I'm afraid a counter-wagon on AI at this time might allow Atog to vanish into obscurity; and if we actually go through all the motions and end up lynching AI and he turns up scum, it might undeservingly reflect well on Atog (even though the way AI has been pushing his wagon forwards looks and smells and tastes like bussing). In short, I would prefer we do things in order, and will act accordingly.
......
Unvote
since my vote on Atog wasn't counted (but at this moment I don't really care, especially if it's going to be used as an excuse to force an early claim out of him), and my vote on Karn is pointless right now.
I'm not thrilled that you're sitting back and letting Azrael do the work, when it reads like you want to wagon AI. I could get behind you being worried that an AI lynch would allow Atog to fade into the background, but you're clearly open to each being scum independently of the other, so your unvote and lack of vote don't really mesh for me in this context.
Could you do an in-detail review of why you think AI is scum, if you're more positive he's scum than you are of Atog? I'm more interested in your take on it than Azrael's.
The other one is this one where I say "I don't think I want to lynch AI." I mentioned him because he was the major wagon that I had no interest in joining. If that's not the second post you're referring to, please let me know:
Sure thing, pot. I bring up the three people that are being discussed. I still prefer Atogaholic to AI. I also prefer hawk to AI. I've been hesitant to post my full thoughts on hawk because I didn't want to derail the other wagons.
I'm still waiting to hear any explanation beyond the vaguest of reasons as to why you even have those preferences. Are those the only people you have any interest in? Is it a coincidence that they are the only ones (not really hawk) that have been discussed as major wagons since like page 4?
What are your thoughts on AE, Rhand, hansanator, Taredas, and ZDS?
I've given my thoughts on Rhand and my read on ZDS. Here's a breakdown on the players you noted:
Rhand: Town. See 248 and 349.
ZDS: Leaning scum. Noted in 248. For more specifics, I don't like 51, 126, and 237. He's read better to me recently, though.
AE: Leaning town. His attacks on you haven't felt like scum attacks, and I don't like how you've approached his fixation on you.
hansanator: I'm not sure.
Taredas: Town. I haven't read anything in his posts that felt off, and the effort he's putting in feels genuine.
All of those reads except the Rhand one sound totally made up. I think you are scum. At the very least, you aren't reading, and the entire theme of your posts today has been a peripheral nibbling-round-the-edges, waiting for something to happen instead of making anything happen yourself.FoS: Cythare.
Ok. I don't know what else to tell you. Yes, I've been somewhat peripheral.
Still waiting for Cythare to do...anything, actually. And I know he's been V/LA, but in 25 posts I think I've seen absolutely nothing to recommend him.
I love this "bend space and time" replacement policy.
At the moment I'll request a deadline extension and try to get a killjoy wagon going. I'm not a huge fan of the two wagons at the moment and I feel like the scum are trying to take advantage of the apathy/coming deadline to push through a mislynch.
Vote killjoy
Request Deadline Extension A
Is killjoy based on snurfy, or do you also take issue with killjoy's posts after replacing in?
KoolKoal is doing nothing but OMGUSing and defending himself. He's not scumhunting. Let's get more votes on him.
---
Az's post is good, but I feel like I would be more inclined to follow it come D2. I'm not sold on AI, but I'm fine moving forward with his other four reads (Cythare, Sir Karn, killjoy, AE). Most of them have been null for me other than killjoy or AE, and w/r/t AE I'm willing to trust Az's read on him given that he's read AE correctly in the last.. two or three games he's played with him.
My only hesitation is the read on Sir Karn. I find him consistently difficult to read since he plays like this whether he's town or scum. Az, would you be willing to crosscheck this game with Iji Mafia, where he was town?
Also, you meant snurfy instead of scarbo, right? You have scarbo as part of the "ultratown" list and the "strong scum reads" list.
I find it suspect that Cythare immediately lept out of the woodworks to defend himself against Az.
@Az: What do you think of this post? Does it change your read on KoolKoal?
Because the fact that he voted you doesn't matter. Its who he didn't vote in that exact situation that matters.
ed: I'm informed that proph should be voting koolkoal or somebody, whatever, who cares
i'll fix it later.
I'd expect something like, his line of thinking is off, his posting style bothers me.
Horribly scummy is you painting KK as horribly scummy but only willing to lynch him of town run up his lynch for you.
Outdated Mafia Stats
@Rhand: Not too convinced on it. One of the reasons why I'm townreading zindabad is a bit of a WiFOM-loop: zindabad is experienced enough to know that FoSing without a vote, and lightly pressuring multiple people without voting them is a scum tell. I think that the fact that he's doing that, coupled with the fact that he's inviting pressure on him, means that he's consistent with his own mindset.
Sure, that's fine.
Can you move your vote to the KoolKoal wagon? Please?
----
I think this Sepiriel vs hawk fight is pretty much a waste. Sepiriel is town, while hawk is currently null for me right now.
More people should vote KoolKoal. He hasn't responded to the pressure against him.
Remind me why I would "perk up near a deadline" as scum in this situation? You and Atog were the only two wagons of any note, both going nowhere - that seems like the perfect situation for a scum to lurk his way to an easy mislynch. Not that my posting rate even increased. It's been holding steady at the same rate ever since I got prodded.
I didn't say anything about how you talk to people. I am saying that you have been noncommittal regarding both my attacks on AE and his on me, and that you appear to be coaching him in plain sight to stop attacking me and to do something productive, because his tunneling is making him look bad.
The quote, you mean? This one?
The quote from a five-year-old game that he then tries to relate to this statement that I made in this game?
Listen, he didn't even get his own meta right. He did catch me in Goo Mafia. But it wasn't with the quote he posted. It was in this post:
Where I blindly assert that AE is playing exactly to his scum meta despite giving no evidence at all for this accusation. Don't believe me? OK, here's AE's own take on how he caught me in Goo Mafia, taken from Chosen Mafia (2012):
So he says in Chosen Mafia that the way he caught me in Goo was that I accused him falsely and he demanded proof, and I had none. True statement.
In this game, he says it was because I threw out a meaningless comment which he then tries to relate to my "hint of panic" comment about AI in this game. False statement.
He doesn't even have his own meta correct. The quote he provided for you is inaccurate. And here's the kicker - this was his initial reaction to when you asked him for explanation of his "catch":
So, wait a second. I thought I'm scum when I falsely accuse people, at least, according to AE in Chosen. That doesn't fit the reason he provided in this game, which is "not commit[ting]" and "throw[ing] mud." Which one is it?
Next up, here are his responses to being asked to provide meta for his (mis)characterization of my scum game:
To Vishamon, he simply replies "No."
To ZDS, he replies "Something I remember. It's been sooo long now since we've played. But also notice how quiet he's been."
Here's his response as scum to being asked by Toastboy to provide quotes in Chosen Mafia:
Like in that game, when he is asked for specifics on his nebulous meta-based attacks on me, he declines to provide them. Then, in this game, when he finally does, the meta he gives isn't even correct, let alone relevant to this game.
So yes, ZDS, my original question stands: Did he explain anything? Do you know what happened in Goo Mafia?
Still waiting for you to confirm that you attacked the wrong player, or even to acknowledge my existence. The longer you wait to do so, the worse you look for reappearing in the thread and going "omg zindabad is so scum because of [attack that AE actually made]!!!!"
No, I am making it clear that there is nothing to defend. That "case" was not worth the name. Despite that, I think you are town. If I didn't, I would be calling you to account for the lack of quotes, any sort of actual evidence based on what I said to back up your characterization of what I said, etc.
Yes. Recommend you staying alive.
Please explain why you feel that way.
On the contrary, scarbo posting an actual attempt to case me, however poor, made me think better of him. You, Az, and AE have made multiple allusions to how I am scummy and how I should be pressured/cased/investigated/interrogated/whatever word you choose to use for "someone else do the legwork." My response to that is "let's have it." Commit something to writing so that everyone can see what you have on me, and I can defend it. I expect that you aren't doing that because you know I am not going to be lynched and would rather take the path of least resistance, viz. AI. AE chooses not to because he knows I'm town and just wants the convenient excuse of attacking me in order to look like he's doing something, like desCoures in Inheritance Mafia. Case in point below:
The AI wagon is the epitome of a dead horse that he continues to beat. I'm "next on the agenda" (I thought it was a full reread with notes?), but he tries to insinuate that he is town with the "when I get nightkilled" comment, which of course was only a joke, as he posts a smiley face to remind us. Very subtle. Very Azrael. Very Littlefinger.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
zindabad, the people voting you are doing so for poor/scummy reasons, so I think voting you at this juncture is a terrible idea. I don't necessarily town-read you, but I want KoolKoal and scarbo dead first.
When your default setting is "criticize everything", you miss the kind of empathic understandings that are essential to reading people correctly.
Instead of someone changing their mind on what the highest priority for their analysis is, you accuse them of reneging.
Instead of someone trying to gracefully convey, without rancor, that they're going to transition to analyzing other wagons although they feel very strongly the town is making a mistake, you misread it as manipulation.
There are multiple ways of reading most posts, but lately, it seems like you're only aware of one possibility at a time. Lighten up and try not to assume the worst of people as a default, or you'll miss the subtleties that allow you to truly distinguish who is and isn't on your side.
You can read that as me trying to manipulate you into misreading me, or you can read it as exasperation with an annoying and ineffective playstyle that's not only led you to misread multiple players, but has led multiple players (including me, almost) to scum-read you out of sheer dislike for it. Your choice.
I'm going to analyze other people besides AI, I promise, but this is yet another extremely scum-aligned post.
Those kinds of derogatory comments about players' cases are a classic scum emotional tell. Townies point out the holes in cases in a caustic manner all the time, but you can tell someone is scum when they go a step further to actually insulting the case, or the person making it. The townie mentality is to point out where the case went wrong, the scum mentality is to try to insure that no one thinks the case is good. Which do you see above?
The buddying comment with Zindabad is equally terrible, on multiple levels. Not only is he blatantly cozying up to Zind, his strongest defender as the misguided townie who single-handedly derailed AI's wagon, but he then characterizes voting against Zindabad as terrible without even having a town-read on him, while in the very next sentence he says he wants two other players dead first. As in, terrible idea to kill Zindabad, so he'd rather kill two other people first. He's keeping his options open to kill someone who he says it's a terrible idea to kill, and who was primarily responsible for saving him!
Can no one else see the glaring inconsistencies in this mindset? He's playing every side at once, and repeatedly refusing to commit himself to a static read. Too many of his posts are focused around leaving doorways open for him to attack players at a later time. Townies don't worry about that - they say what their current reads are and change them later on as they see fit. But scum are concerned with appearances, they don't want to be noticed changing a read on a dime in order to help someone to their death. So then you see posts like AI's, with a thousand different qualifiers appended to their reads: "now", "at first", "at this juncture", "for the moment", "I see reason A, but also point B makes a lot of sense".
AI's wording is literally screaming that he's operating under a scum mentality. That's not twisting, it's not tunneling, that's just paying attention to detail and using time-honored wording analysis technique that has caught scum time and time again. He WILL flip scum.
The only one of my own scumreads that I'm still sure of at this point is Snurfy, and with him been replaced there's no point in pursuing that one toDay.
I'm going to go against my own instincts and trust Azrael's.
unvote, vote AI
@Scarbo: full reasoning on requesting that extension please.
Why? He's got blinders on so badly you'd think he wore horseshoes.
I don't believe I was voting at this time....
but if for some reason I was, then
UNVOTE
But he isn't normally wrong.
Az,
I would like to hear some other scum reads from you though...
That does give me cause to worry. I generally don't like it when people "read at both ends" as it colors their re-read and makes it less visceral.
This wasn't exactly a slam dunk.
Um, is this it? This is what you've been waiting all game to spit out? Some mod-gaming?
This is an FTQ with literally not even a single role claimed yet. I wouldn't assume that you have Megiddo's balancing figured out based on no information at all.
"I'm starting to distrust Az." Hold on to that thought.
The last time I was mislynched was in 2010. If you think I'm town (null is about all you're willing to commit yourself to), then I wouldn't worry yourself too much about me getting lynched, no matter how "unpleasant" you find me.
I do have to agree with your comment on Az, though. I appeared to be in a weak position and him coming in with a PBPA that concluded I was scum may well have tipped the scales, considering the degree to which certain players appear to be blindly following him. Maybe he thinks I'm volatile enough to keep around as mislynch fodder later on, but I doubt that.
1. Still waiting for you to acknowledge you attacked me instead of AE in what I generously assume to be a case of mistaken identity.
2. Still waiting for you to provide content.
As far as deadline lynches go, I would be up for hawk, I think.
That comment has nothing to do with what I posted. I asked you to remind me why I would perk up as scum in this situation, which is what you appeared to imply by posting "I think I've seen zindabad perk up as scum near a deadline before. Maybe in Goo Mafia, or Symbiote." I say imply because you of course did not provide evidence for that statement or even appear to know, like AE, what game/post you were referring to.
The more I re-read this post, the more I suspect you. Your comment about Az's view was nothing but slander. It was just a straight-up attempt to discredit him. And the fact that you name two low-hanging fruit as your two top "want them dead" people (not even suspects) also does not inspire confidence.
Thank you for that patronizing post. Let me make something clear: it's day 1. Nobody is "on my side." I unequivocally trust maybe 5 players, past and present, on this site, and none of them are in this game. Secondly, I'm not particularly bothered, as you may have noticed, about who's being annoyed or dislikes my playstyle. I'm not going to get lynched and I'm not trying to win any friends here - that's for scum. Your emphasis on politics and influence over evidence is one of the things that makes me instantly distrust your posts. They always read like you're trying to charm your listeners into following you rather than demonstrating logically why they should agree with you - and they read like that even when you are producing evidence. Maybe it comes from being a lawyer. Maybe it's all in my own head. I don't know. It does nothing for me, though, and that's why I liken you to Littlefinger. The Pied Piper would do as well.
Speaking of evidence - would you like to comment on what I posted about AE's use of bogus meta to attack me in this game?
A moment ago you were starting to distrust Az. Now it's back to sheeping him. Which is it?
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Unvote
Vote: zindabad
This needs to happen.
I don't want us to settle for just a good-enough lynch, which is a lot of what I'm seeing.
Atogaholic (3): Cythare, AsianInvasion, Axelrod
AsianInvasion (3): KoolKoal, Azrael, Rhand
7hawk77 (1): dkingsland967
Scarbo (1): Taredas
Zindabad (2): Scarbo, Archmage Eternal
KoolKoal (2): Prophylaxis, ZeDorkSlipeur
Taredas (1): Obzedat
Sepiriel (1): 7hawk77
V/LA
Rhand - Until he sails off into the horizon
Prod Watch
Atogaholic (2)
Sir Karn (3)
I doubt AE's use of bogus meta is particularly alignment indicative. Those types of factual mistakes are rarely purposeful.
It's certainly not in my head. I try to be cheerful and good-natured because that's the kind of person I'd like to be. And I'm having fun. so it simply comes naturally to me, and that was my MO long before I ever dreamt of making the mistake of going to law school. And I definitely don't picture myself as someone who values rhetoric, politics, or influence over logic. That's how I picture everyone who chooses to argue with me and gets the better of me - naturally.
Especially considering how poorly I do at any sort of politics or influence IRL. The written word is probably the only medium in which I excel at communicating and influencing people. In live settings, I'm usually the person in the back of the room mentally facepalming at whatever ridiculous notions the more socially connected nincompoop in charge is ramming down our collective throats, wishing that I had the ability to summon words that would save us from the iceberg bearing down on us.
At any rate, my argument has very little to do with encouraging you to win friends and influence people (TM), and a great deal more with (patronizingly) encouraging you to recalibrate your current style of analysis, since it's misreading me on about seven different spectrums, including temperament, alignment, the comparative weight that I put on evidence in my PBPAs, plus about four other utterly redundant synonyms that amount to describing who I am as a person.
I know who I am. And I've seen what you say about who I am, and what you say about other people. And I don't think you're right about them, or me. If it's patronizing to tell you that, so that you can tackle it and become a better player, then paint me with that brush. To my mind, that would be the logical course for you to take - to regard it as nothing more than a recommendation from a teammate, and not as an insult to your intelligence or ability.
Seems legit. So what's your reasoning for supporting both my and AI's lynch as your foremost candidates when I was one of the first people on his wagon? I would expect you to pick just one of us at this point (probably me, since you voted me).
But he was correct that I was scum.
I distrust him because his reads are the opposite of mine this game. If he's town, AI will flip scum and I won't doubt him again. If AI flips town, I'll be all over Az toMorrow.
And then you are spending that time voting me. That doesn't seem very productive.
You seem to be on an entirely different wavelength with this post so I'm just going to leave it here.
So you allow no possibility that he is simply wrong? Either he's town, and if he is, he's 100% correct and AI is scum. and if he isn't, he's 100% a liar and AI is town. Is that right?
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Okay, well, this is just silly. I can't believe you are actually serious here. You are saying "If Az is Town, he's right." Therefore, I will go along regardless of whether I agree. If the player named instead flips Town, then Az must be scum (because Town Az would have been right....)
AE vs. Zindabad
AI all over again
Koolkoal
Snurfy/Replacement
7Hawk vs. Sep.
I would like Taresdas to answer my question when he actually posts.
I would like Atog to post again period.
People who have indicated interest in voting for him (AI, Sepiriel) should vote for him.
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@zindabad: I've made it clear that I have no intent of engaging with Azrael. At this point his arguments are so ridiculous that I don't care if I'm slandering him. Even if he's town, people would be foolish to listen to him.
@ZDS: I don't think anyone seriously thinks hawk is a viable lynch candidate at this point. Demonstrating that he is town would be a wasted effort.
@Proph: I'd settle for KK but I'd rather lynch Atog.
@Everyone who thinks Azrael's word is gospel: Wake the **** up.
It really is how I feel about the situation.
Proph and ZDS both have strong points against KK. I'm going to give him a full re-read and decide if I want to vote him.
If KK is scum, I doubt that was a bus vote.
I agree with this, pushing Atog at this point is counterproductive. It looks like that slot is probably going to end up getting replaced anyway.
I don't see why you take issue with this... the majority of the game could be dead wrong, it's certainly happened before.
The insinuation that was a Gruul claim is extremely tenuous, especially considering that hans expressed his love for speed lynches shortly after that post. Also, echoing Proph that your defensive stance out of the gates is not in your favor.
I had the exact same reaction to that part of Taredas's post.
Also, there will come a point where modgaming around likely town/scum ratios within the guilds is viable, but now isn't that time.
/barn this. And his circular logic in defense of this position makes no sense.
Also, Rhand's dislike of the extension is noteworthy. Scum hate it when early days drag on.
KK says Atog could be "noobing it up", but it certainly appears he knows Atog from another site and knows he is not a noob to mafia at all.
KK pushed Atog and AI as scum most of the day, but was firmly in favor of lynching AI throughout and didn't back down from this until it became obvious that lynch wasn't going to go through. In post 634 he said that read had weakened, but never offered any reasoning for it.
I'm fine with this lynch. If KK flips scum it pretty much town!firms AI, and there is a damn good chance that Atog is a buddy.
Vote Koolkoal
As for the current togs discussions, I've stayed out because, as I said in my big convoluted response to prophy, I need to reread my lynch candidates. Togs especially since he's just prod-dodging at this point. I didn't feel I had anything useful to add to the discussion.
I'm trying to do a new posting style in this game because of the convoluted posts you mentioned. I'm attempting to post short and sweet and only what's necessary. I don't seem to be doing a good job of including everything relevant though.
I don't see the difference. Does it really matter if I'm wrong because I've got bad reads/I'm bad at mafia/etc compared being wrong because big mafia games are hard?
I joined the big mafia game, so I need to play my best even if it is hard (or replace out if I can't). And anyway, being wrong isn't the same as being scum. Maybe I missed the main point, but it doesn't make sense to me.
1. Currently leaning scum with the read in desperate need of a refresher course. The reason I've fallen off a bit is because my scum read of AI continues to grow.
2. Honestly, I don't even recall reading Atog's Vishamon defense, and I just scrolled back half the thread and couldn't find it. Show me? As a general statement that might answer your question faster: I don't think there's much point to carefully picking over someone's defense of obvtown. You might find a scumslip or something I guess, but I think you usually will find nothing alignment indicative.
I already answered the second half above.
3. Its a bad habit I have. I flower up my writing with useless fluff without realizing it. Like I said, I'm trying to combat it so other players can understand what I'm trying to say. Miscommunication has been a problem in pretty much every one of my past games. Well I thought it was fairly obv, but alright.
There was a growing wagon on me, and hawk derailed it by suddenly voting someone who expressed interest in it. I'd expect scum to get excited and hop on board the express train to Claimsville, possibly continuing on to Lynchburg (which is what my wagon appeared to be at that point).
It could be a bus, but you said that I voted him when there was no real wagon on AI yet. Seems like a very ballsy bus to me.
If you could be wrong about either or both of us, I'd expect you to at least say "this koolkoal thing has me doubting my AI read somewhat, I'll decide on one soon" or something. Instead you just put both of us equally out there which feels wrong.
No, I just think at least acknowledging the awkwardness of it would have been the town thing to do.
I'm not familiar with how often togs has played since, but I think it is very little.
I also pretty clearly said my read had only weakened, and all my old reads weakened equally, because I haven't been paying close enough attention to the thread and need a reread. Misrep.
I'm down to lynch Prophy or Togs.
"First" relative to zindabad, obviously, considering I am basing his alignment on yours. If all you've got on me is a misrepresentation, then you've got literally nothing.
I'm inclined to agree with dk that Atog is more likely to get replaced than lynched, which means it'll probably be you who gets strung up instead. But by all means continue to flail about.
Classic scum tactic to latch on to a single mistake and use it as an excuse to handwave an entire day worth of reasons to vote you.
I feel like I've got an excellent grasp on all the minor players now and have identified numerous new strong town reads and a number of likely scum reads. New reads are in bold.
Strong Town Reads - Not Likely to Change - 9
Azrael -obv
77Hawk7 - Strong town read on several of his posts, including one where it was very evident in a reference to his player notes that he's forming his genuine reads. Has been attacked opportunistically by several probable scum.
Axelrod - Was generally reading Axel as town, and one of his posts in particular where he charted out his precise chain of thought was HEAVILY pro-town.
hansanator* Huntzilla - Hans had a number of short but sweet posts that read as strong town.
Proph - Has been extremely active and detailed in analysis, providing genuine content and reads. There is no way he's scum.
Rhand - See above.
Scarbo - A number of scarbo's posts also had some really good earnest/honest tells in them, such as his efforts to get Obzedat lynched. I don't see me changing that read, either.
Sepiriel - Heavily pro-town as identified in his defense against the wagon.
dkingsland967 - Once he kicks into his large analysis posts, you can definitely see a pro-town mindset peeking through. The first that I noticed was the one that came right after Axelrod said he could never trust him again. I, for one, am comfortable doing so.
ZeDorkSlipeur - Excellent, on-point, genuine analysis.
I would be VERY surprised if anyone on the above list is scum, and will fight tooth and nail against any lynch involving any of these ten players. (And, queue nightkill.)
Rhand, Proph, and ZDS have all been doing good analysis work and are probably likely targets for scum hate.
Weak Town Reads- 3
Vishamon - Weak town read on early posts. Would be stronger if his lurk were less strong. In terms of trajectory, though, I fully expect him to produce enough town posts to confirm him as game progresses.
zindabad* - Reading him as town in what we have despite the attitude. Could feasibly be a strong town read, but given his ability and the lack of as many confirmatory tells as other players, and some anti-town tendencies, in the weak category for now.
Atogaholic* - Keeping an eye on him for future interactions that will hopefully be less muddy than his early ones.
Out of the weak town category, Atog is the only person I consider as a likely candidate for a read-change, but based on wagon dynamics, I'm skittish there.
Null-
KoolKoal - Only player who has yet to post sufficient content in sufficient amounts to generate any sort of read.
Weak Scum Read-
Taredas* - Taredas is the kind of formiddable player who isn't necessarily easy to get a face-value read on. In looking over his posts, you see a lot of longer analysis posts that are more difficult to accurately parse. I saw only a small number of tells that I'd view as confirmatory town, and I had some concerns that he might be being a little slick at several points. For instance, he started off voting for AI very strongly, but backed off of AI citing an explanation for AI's behavior that he didn't want to explain. I'm pretty sure I know what he's suggesting there, but I don't know that I agree that it was reasonable for Taredas to think that. Taredas, why did you unvote AI?
I don't necessarily expect my Taredas weak scum read to stick. But if I'm wrong about someone being town, I'd look at him first as the most likely candidate for an analyst who's on the wrong side of the fence.
Strong Scum Reads -
Archmage Eternal - Zinda was on to something, here. I'm naturally biased against AE wagons given his history, but I'm very unhappy with his posting style here. It's very truncated and minimialistic. He uses very short sentences to talk about very simple ideas, then disappears from view without addressing any of the topics of note that the remainder of the town is discussing. No confirmatory town tells, which he ordinarily gives off regularly. It's as if he's decided his appropriate level of contribution to the thread will be poking his head in every once in a while with a complaint about Zindabad, and he's unable to fake a town mindset in any more detail than that.
Cythare - Here and on Sir Karn is where I'm really missing having my notes available. Cy was en early lurker. After he finished lurking, he made a number of moves I'm not happy about, low-explanation votes, attacks on probable town players, and no confirmatory town tells. He also made a number of moves to subtly discourage the AI wagon, while simultaneously not ruling out the ability to hop onto it. You can almost see him hovering on the edges of the wagon, having indirect conversations with people about it, as he contemplates whether to hop on for a bus, or not.
Sir Karn* - Sir Karn launched a number of scattershot, overly aggressive attacks on about seven different players in his opening posts. He's kept to a similar pattern - most of his posts are attacking some weaker, more vulnerable but likely town player. No confirmatory town tells, and much like AE, he's kept to a very minimalistic, truncated playstyle. He's trying not to give out much information to get an accurate read on him, and not talking about any of the notable topics of conversation that he ought to be addressing.
Snurfy8* Killjoy - Snurfy's post 233 and...I want to say 286 had some tells buried in them. Proph and I discussed the tells in 233 already - 286 smacked of Smurfy being either Simic or scum, in the way that he was ruminating about who should claim or not. Don't much care for how much he focused on that over reading people as scum, and his few votes were very unconvincing and poorly targeted as well. Killjoy's reads on entering the thread were also off-balance. He had a lot of people not being read as town who have been easy town reads for most players, and both Karn and AI made it onto his highest level of town read, for reasons that were pretty superficial. I don't buy his reads as genuine.
Head Will Literally Explode if he is not Scum -
AsianInvasion - There is no conceivable way that this player slot is town. Period. Nearly all the town's most detailed analysts, myself, ZDS, Axelrod, Zinda, and Taredas have all pinpointed extremely disturbing aspects of his play at one time or another. The wagon failed not because those original reads were off, but because Axel, Zinda, and Taredas all found reasons to doubt and second-guess their original reads, and a number of players made efforts to kill the wagon's momentum. On my reread, I noticed additional anti-town aspects to AI's play, such as his PBPA vs probable town Hawk, and suspicious interactions with other candidates I've identifed as probable scum, such as several instances in which Cy subtly discourages AI's wagon and seeks to push other alternatives, such as Hawk.
This is one of the rare wagons where my level of certainty approaches 100%.
Summary
Asian is definite scum. I'm also pretty confident in Cythare, Scarbo/Killjoy, Sir Karn, and AE rounding out the scum team. We have a ton of players who gave me good, solid townie confirmations, and in the remaining category there is a web of suspicious interactions and people who are not only failing to confirm themselves, but are committing scum tells left and right. I'm prepared to call this game largely solved at this point, and I view my remaining task in the time I have left before being night-killed is to double-check those reads and lay out the cases in detail. I have the same level of confidence in these reads as I had in my analyses from CIM, Clue, Deathspeaker, and MTGS Redux 2.
Again, your scum-team is Asian, Cythare, Scarbo, Sir Karn, and AE.
Your townies are Az, Axelrod, Hawk, Dkings, Huntzilla, Proph, Rhand, Sepiriel, ZDS. Zindabad and Vish can be safely lumped in there.
Margin for Error is: Taredas, Koolkoal, and Atog.
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You had a conversation with ZDS earlier in the thread where you were asking about his reasons for being suspicious of AI. Later on, you mentioned a few players that you'd rather lynch than AI. You never signaled intent to vote him, but you laid the groundwork necessary for you to launch a bus if the wagon progressed far enough.
The other one is this one where I say "I don't think I want to lynch AI." I mentioned him because he was the major wagon that I had no interest in joining. If that's not the second post you're referring to, please let me know:
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---
Az's post is good, but I feel like I would be more inclined to follow it come D2. I'm not sold on AI, but I'm fine moving forward with his other four reads (Cythare, Sir Karn, killjoy, AE). Most of them have been null for me other than killjoy or AE, and w/r/t AE I'm willing to trust Az's read on him given that he's read AE correctly in the last.. two or three games he's played with him.
My only hesitation is the read on Sir Karn. I find him consistently difficult to read since he plays like this whether he's town or scum. Az, would you be willing to crosscheck this game with Iji Mafia, where he was town?
Also, you meant snurfy instead of scarbo, right? You have scarbo as part of the "ultratown" list and the "strong scum reads" list.
I find it suspect that Cythare immediately lept out of the woodworks to defend himself against Az.
@Az: What do you think of this post? Does it change your read on KoolKoal?
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