That would actually be incredibly helpful.
We'll be down to 3 VTs tomorrow. If Cantrip isn't scum, eliminating one of those two VTs means we KNOW the other two are scum and we win.
If Cantrip is scum, eliminating one of those two VTs means we know one of the remaining two has to be scum, and we have a spare mislynch, so we still win.
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That would actually be incredibly helpful.
We'll be down to 3 VTs tomorrow. If Cantrip isn't scum, eliminating one of those two VTs means we KNOW the other two are scum and we win.
I'd put good odds on KoolKoal being scum or a third party for killing Cantrip before he had a chance to say anything.
DC: I had actually offered KoolKoal a choice between killing several people on purpose, to see what he would do. I'm a little irritated with the way you gave him explicit instructions.
There are four possible outcomes for Hooker and Cantrip
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching wins us the game right now
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us even (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (6/1 - 2 mislynches) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us down to (4/2 - MyLo) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch)
So yeah, that looks less good. If hooker is scum and cantrip is town, we're even on mislynches. If Hooker is town, we lose a mislynch.
We're not just in this to maximize the number of mislynches we have left. Yes, it's a bad thing if we lynch a town!HP now and lose time. It's also a bad thing if we let a scum!HP live and find a way to wriggle out through the endgame.
What information do you think we'll get from Cantrip's flip that would change your position on HP? I don't see a strong tie between their alignments. The only tie I see is to Kool - if Cantrip is scum, Kool is town.
@Wildfire - why are you convinced that both remaining scum are within the VTs?
@fulcrum - true, we could have given him an option but I wanted him to shoot that slot because I thought it was the most likely to be correct.
@Kamikaze - Can you give some whys behind your reads? I'm also not following your logic on how not lynching HP today makes her more likely to wriggle out down the road. I do feel like if Cantrip's scum that HP is less likely to be based on a few things, one being Generic defending HP to DK earlier in the game. If Generic was scum, I feel like that interaction wouldn't have happened among that trio. Also, Generic swearing to everyone how town HP was just recently. Within the realm of possibility as scum but, if Generic was scum - I think those are more likely to be buddying tactics.
@DCIII: By definition: if we lynch HP today, she has zero chance to wriggle out down the road. If we don't lynch her today, she has a nonzero chance to wriggle out down the road.
Fulcrum has been obviously town in her actions and reactions throughout the game. All her posts feel honest. Also, her specific actions have been town; in particular, she went to a DK lynch when DK had very little pressure on him.
Wildfire is consistently trying to scumhunt and to solve the game. Also, his posts seem similar to the Castlevania, where he was town.
HP is activelurking. Tons of posts, virtually zero scumhunting, just a bunch of votes and talk about power roles.
Didn't like Niv's interaction with Fulcrum.
The slight reads on you and Cantrip are basically gut reactions.
just skimmed real quick while working on another post. Kami has town reads on wildfire (double voter, that is 99.99999% town, and fulcrum. and a scum read on everyone else, or a null read, especially a null read on the proven dayvig poisoner. oh, and this post 2 up. UnVote, Vote Kamikazi
---------
Cythare did give me a large amount of reads that I need to get to, but that will likely be tomorrow night before I can. also I have no idea if he can be voted for.
@Wildfire - why are you convinced that both remaining scum are within the VTs?
I believe all of the claims. I think a limited-use Tracker/Watcher hybrid can exist alongside an alternating cop. Niv's thing is too weird to manufacture, and too weak to be a scum role. I don't believe a dayvig, especially a delayed one, can be scum.
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Stop ignoring my request to explain your reasons for things, please.
I absolutely don't want to lynch prior to seeing Cantrip's flip - both to analyze it and also because I want more Nights. If fulcrum is telling the truth, more Nights mean more potential for her to use her abilities and for us to evaluate them or for her to be eliminated as a suspect and then have more Days to discuss the game with that context (and with the context of knowing Cantrip's flip and who ever the NK and next lynch are).
More information is better and lynching now has the potential to limit that if we're wrong.
Don't like Kamikazee's rationale for wanting to lynch HP now.
Fulcrum has been obviously town in her actions and reactions throughout the game. All her posts feel honest. Also, her specific actions have been town; in particular, she went to a DK lynch when DK had very little pressure on him.
Wildfire is consistently trying to scumhunt and to solve the game. Also, his posts seem similar to the Castlevania, where he was town.
HP is activelurking. Tons of posts, virtually zero scumhunting, just a bunch of votes and talk about power roles.
Didn't like Niv's interaction with Fulcrum.
The slight reads on you and Cantrip are basically gut reactions.
You realize these are just pretty words until you quote some posts to back them up, right?
DCIII, are you voting No Lynch? Right now, I think Fulcrum and No Lynch have 2 votes each, which means if it goes to deadline Fulcrum will get lynched since she was there first.
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Man, I've been thinking, and one of your four abilities is REALLY BAD. Like, what good is it to tell which abilities were used on somebody but not by whom?
"Hey guys, I watched the guy who got killed last night. Turns out, he was night killed"
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Been thinking more about the lynch/nolynch option. I'm willing to go with a no lynch if people can explain what specific information we're going to get. In particular:
- If Cantrip is town, what does that say about HP or anyone else?
- If Cantrip is scum, what does that say about HP or anyone else?
@Wildfire: See, that's what I mean by modgaming.
@Niv: What is wrong with my reads?
@Fulcrum: What specifically do you want post references for? I really don't want to go back through the entire thread and construct a quote wall for all my reads.
I think your slot looks worse, and HP better if Cantrip flips scum
I think your slot looks better, and HP worse if Cantrip flips town
Additionally, Fulcrum can allegedly use her "Tell me the Name of Action(s) Taken" Tracker Shot or her Watcher Shot tonight, which could eliminate someone as a suspect or catch someone in the act.
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I think your slot looks worse, and HP better if Cantrip flips scum
I think your slot looks better, and HP worse if Cantrip flips town
Why?
Additionally, Fulcrum can allegedly use her "Tell me the Name of Action(s) Taken" Tracker Shot or her Watcher Shot tonight, which could eliminate someone as a suspect or catch someone in the act.
Generic getting frustrated to the point of replacing out when kpaca had to be replaced (and possibly would have ended up modkilled) seemed uncharacteristic of him. The simplest reasoning I can think of for this is that the two of your are scum together. That obviously falls apart if his slot isn't actually scummy.
Without that, your slot looks a little better, and that mostly just makes HP look worse by PoE.
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Skimmed the thread. Fulcrum and Wildfire stand out as town. Niv looks scummy. HP looks very scummy. Generic/Cantrip looks somewhat scummy. Slight town lean on DCIII. Both KK's are null.
you have way too many scum reads or null reads in a game with likely only 2 scum left. and your only town reads are on the double voter, who's pretty much guaranteed town, and fulcrum, who I firmly believe was the scummiest player of d1, and is getting by off of the claim.
someone fill me in why we're no lynching today. no lynch is for much closer to endgame, we lynched scum d1, we;re not even close to needing to give up the days lynch.
It basically boils down to this:
Normally, Koal's Poison Shot would be the only extra kill in the game, and the game was designed to allow 2 mislynches + the poison shot misvigging before LyLo.
Because of the SNL modkill, we're down a town member, meaning that there's one less mis-kill available.
If we lynch today, we reduce the length of the game, giving Fulcrum fewer opportunities to investigate.
It also means that we're lynching without the information from Cantrip's flip.
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Man, I've been thinking, and one of your four abilities is REALLY BAD. Like, what good is it to tell which abilities were used on somebody but not by whom?
"Hey guys, I watched the guy who got killed last night. Turns out, he was night killed"
Voyeur is well known to be the worst power role in the game, yeah. Anecdotally, I've seen it catch scum once due to claim situation, but that game was a mess.
Well, I've never been in a game with a Voyeur before so this is the first time I've really thought about it.
I suppose its presence should probably indicate that there's at least one scum out there with a targeted ability that isn't the kill..
Oh right, we killed a Role Cop already.
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that's 2 scum, 9 people right now, we lynch today, and both the cantrip kill and they lynch are misses. we're down to 6 people with 2 scum tomorrow, right? I get why we're doing the no lynch, but I don't get why we're doing it today. If we get 2 more lynches, I see no reason we shouldn't no lynch tomorrow instead. actually I guess it really doesn't matter what day we do it, but I've never really been a fan of doing it early, but I guess both days still get us to 5 people 2 scum if everything misses. I've just never really been a fan of no lynch before myol. I'd rather go into tomorrow though with the 6 - 2 no lynch tommmorrow, because if we're gonna use an extra shot today, and one of them hits, then we go into tommorrow with 6 - 1, which gives us another day and another no lynch to get down to 3 - 1. if we take the one shot, no lynch today, we're 7 - 2 tommorrow, then we lnch tommorrow, if we hit, we're then 5 - 1. giving us 2 straight lynches to 3 - 1.
maybe I'm crazy, but it feels like no lynch tomorrow in this situation is better, though I see why we are talking about it, and people as a whole would rather do it today, that's fine by me.
also, dumb question, but which of the 4 joat watcher abilities is the one we keep calling the Voyeur?
Voyeur = Watcher, but it tells you which abilities targeted the target and not who targeted the target.
As for why we no lynch today:
We get to make our lynch after having seen Cantrip's flip (and the nightkill)
We possibly get information from Fulcrum
How is this so hard to understand?
No lynching tomorrow instead doesn't seem helpful at all.
Assume N is the number of flips we've currently seen.
If we lynch tonight, we're lynching with N flips, then tomorrow with N+3 flips, for a total of 2N+3
If we no lynch tonight, we lynch tomorrow with N+2 flips, then the day after with N+4 flips, for a total of 2N+6
If we lynch tonight with N flips, then no lynch tomorrow, we can lynch the day after with N+4 flips, but that only gives us 2N+4
Also, assume Fulcrum will reveal a piece of information tomorrow.
We lynch tonight without that information, then tomorrow with that information and only get one lynch with it.
We no lynch tonight, then lynch tomorrow and the day after with that information, for 2 lynches with it.
We lynch tonight, no lynch tomorrow, then lynch the day after, we have 1 lynch with it.
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After giving it more thought, I'm ok with the NL today, but please don't push it through until we get a votecount. If my vote on Cythare actually does anything, that changes the situation significantly.
At this point we might as well just wait till deadline.
My Cythare vote is a long shot. I'm guessing it won't do anything. However, if it does, we should immediately switch away from No Lynch. If my math is correct, with one more player in the game, NL will no longer save us an extra day.
The only example I've witnessed is Porcelain Waltz, which had a series of Dolls that joined the game after starting, and they were all controlled by one person who wasn't officially in the game.
But that seems very different.
I guess we see what comes of your vote. If it does stick to Cyth, where do you propose we move our vote to? Back to the HP Wagon, or do we go after Niv/Cythare?
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Matrix mafia had like 4 roles on the replacemnt list, I was one of them, was the worst role I've ever had. never got to post in the thread, but hey, I lived to the endgame as mafia in one of the best games ever........ but no one ever knew I had a role.
Wait. Niv, why didn't elaborate on your ability when you had to claim yesterDay?
I just had to scroll way back to find what question I was missing. my b.
my role plays largely like a vanilla role, and there was no reason to put it in the thread. if I was getting lynched, my claim would have done nothing, in my opinion. I wanted to however hold the card so that If I was going to die, that the reads I was providing had double validity. but it was mostly the first, I view my role as a form of vanilla in this game, and felt as though at the ly-2 moment it wasn't going to be relevant.
I like that answer from Niv, too. Actually, can someone unvote no lynch just in case Cantrip like quick-hammers a NL and Niv can't get his thoughts into the thread? By my count we're at 4 votes for NL.
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
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HEY FULCRUM
Why are you consistently refusing to answer my question in #967?
Watch fulcrum claim to track a VT toNight only to come up with "yeah guys, he did nothing last Night" toMorrow.
We'll be down to 3 VTs tomorrow. If Cantrip isn't scum, eliminating one of those two VTs means we KNOW the other two are scum and we win.
If Cantrip is scum, eliminating one of those two VTs means we know one of the remaining two has to be scum, and we have a spare mislynch, so we still win.
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We really need to see Cantrip's flip before we start declaring the game solved, whatever way we go.
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DC: I had actually offered KoolKoal a choice between killing several people on purpose, to see what he would do. I'm a little irritated with the way you gave him explicit instructions.
What information do you think we'll get from Cantrip's flip that would change your position on HP? I don't see a strong tie between their alignments. The only tie I see is to Kool - if Cantrip is scum, Kool is town.
Unvote
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@fulcrum - true, we could have given him an option but I wanted him to shoot that slot because I thought it was the most likely to be correct.
@Kamikaze - Can you give some whys behind your reads? I'm also not following your logic on how not lynching HP today makes her more likely to wriggle out down the road. I do feel like if Cantrip's scum that HP is less likely to be based on a few things, one being Generic defending HP to DK earlier in the game. If Generic was scum, I feel like that interaction wouldn't have happened among that trio. Also, Generic swearing to everyone how town HP was just recently. Within the realm of possibility as scum but, if Generic was scum - I think those are more likely to be buddying tactics.
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Fulcrum has been obviously town in her actions and reactions throughout the game. All her posts feel honest. Also, her specific actions have been town; in particular, she went to a DK lynch when DK had very little pressure on him.
Wildfire is consistently trying to scumhunt and to solve the game. Also, his posts seem similar to the Castlevania, where he was town.
HP is activelurking. Tons of posts, virtually zero scumhunting, just a bunch of votes and talk about power roles.
Didn't like Niv's interaction with Fulcrum.
The slight reads on you and Cantrip are basically gut reactions.
Either way, we're all gonna burn
---------
Cythare did give me a large amount of reads that I need to get to, but that will likely be tomorrow night before I can. also I have no idea if he can be voted for.
Note* tired.
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I believe all of the claims. I think a limited-use Tracker/Watcher hybrid can exist alongside an alternating cop. Niv's thing is too weird to manufacture, and too weak to be a scum role. I don't believe a dayvig, especially a delayed one, can be scum.
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Stop ignoring my request to explain your reasons for things, please.
I absolutely don't want to lynch prior to seeing Cantrip's flip - both to analyze it and also because I want more Nights. If fulcrum is telling the truth, more Nights mean more potential for her to use her abilities and for us to evaluate them or for her to be eliminated as a suspect and then have more Days to discuss the game with that context (and with the context of knowing Cantrip's flip and who ever the NK and next lynch are).
More information is better and lynching now has the potential to limit that if we're wrong.
Don't like Kamikazee's rationale for wanting to lynch HP now.
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You realize these are just pretty words until you quote some posts to back them up, right?
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Problem solved.
Man, I've been thinking, and one of your four abilities is REALLY BAD. Like, what good is it to tell which abilities were used on somebody but not by whom?
"Hey guys, I watched the guy who got killed last night. Turns out, he was night killed"
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- If Cantrip is town, what does that say about HP or anyone else?
- If Cantrip is scum, what does that say about HP or anyone else?
@Wildfire: See, that's what I mean by modgaming.
@Niv: What is wrong with my reads?
@Fulcrum: What specifically do you want post references for? I really don't want to go back through the entire thread and construct a quote wall for all my reads.
@HP: How are you scumhunting?
I think your slot looks better, and HP worse if Cantrip flips town
Additionally, Fulcrum can allegedly use her "Tell me the Name of Action(s) Taken" Tracker Shot or her Watcher Shot tonight, which could eliminate someone as a suspect or catch someone in the act.
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True.
Without that, your slot looks a little better, and that mostly just makes HP look worse by PoE.
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someone fill me in why we're no lynching today. no lynch is for much closer to endgame, we lynched scum d1, we;re not even close to needing to give up the days lynch.
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Normally, Koal's Poison Shot would be the only extra kill in the game, and the game was designed to allow 2 mislynches + the poison shot misvigging before LyLo.
Because of the SNL modkill, we're down a town member, meaning that there's one less mis-kill available.
If we lynch today, we reduce the length of the game, giving Fulcrum fewer opportunities to investigate.
It also means that we're lynching without the information from Cantrip's flip.
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Voyeur is well known to be the worst power role in the game, yeah. Anecdotally, I've seen it catch scum once due to claim situation, but that game was a mess.
I thought I answered your question?
My position changed due to the changing game climate.
Either way, we're all gonna burn
I suppose its presence should probably indicate that there's at least one scum out there with a targeted ability that isn't the kill..
Oh right, we killed a Role Cop already.
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01. HookerPunch
02. KoolKoal
04. Wildfire393 (r. cccccc808)
06. DCIII
07. KamikazeArchon (r. kpaca (r. hansanator))
08. fulcrum
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12. Cantripmancer (r. Generic)that's 2 scum, 9 people right now, we lynch today, and both the cantrip kill and they lynch are misses. we're down to 6 people with 2 scum tomorrow, right? I get why we're doing the no lynch, but I don't get why we're doing it today. If we get 2 more lynches, I see no reason we shouldn't no lynch tomorrow instead. actually I guess it really doesn't matter what day we do it, but I've never really been a fan of doing it early, but I guess both days still get us to 5 people 2 scum if everything misses. I've just never really been a fan of no lynch before myol. I'd rather go into tomorrow though with the 6 - 2 no lynch tommmorrow, because if we're gonna use an extra shot today, and one of them hits, then we go into tommorrow with 6 - 1, which gives us another day and another no lynch to get down to 3 - 1. if we take the one shot, no lynch today, we're 7 - 2 tommorrow, then we lnch tommorrow, if we hit, we're then 5 - 1. giving us 2 straight lynches to 3 - 1.
maybe I'm crazy, but it feels like no lynch tomorrow in this situation is better, though I see why we are talking about it, and people as a whole would rather do it today, that's fine by me.
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Voyeur = Watcher, but it tells you which abilities targeted the target and not who targeted the target.
As for why we no lynch today:
We get to make our lynch after having seen Cantrip's flip (and the nightkill)
We possibly get information from Fulcrum
How is this so hard to understand?
No lynching tomorrow instead doesn't seem helpful at all.
Assume N is the number of flips we've currently seen.
If we lynch tonight, we're lynching with N flips, then tomorrow with N+3 flips, for a total of 2N+3
If we no lynch tonight, we lynch tomorrow with N+2 flips, then the day after with N+4 flips, for a total of 2N+6
If we lynch tonight with N flips, then no lynch tomorrow, we can lynch the day after with N+4 flips, but that only gives us 2N+4
Also, assume Fulcrum will reveal a piece of information tomorrow.
We lynch tonight without that information, then tomorrow with that information and only get one lynch with it.
We no lynch tonight, then lynch tomorrow and the day after with that information, for 2 lynches with it.
We lynch tonight, no lynch tomorrow, then lynch the day after, we have 1 lynch with it.
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My Cythare vote is a long shot. I'm guessing it won't do anything. However, if it does, we should immediately switch away from No Lynch. If my math is correct, with one more player in the game, NL will no longer save us an extra day.
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But that seems very different.
I guess we see what comes of your vote. If it does stick to Cyth, where do you propose we move our vote to? Back to the HP Wagon, or do we go after Niv/Cythare?
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my role plays largely like a vanilla role, and there was no reason to put it in the thread. if I was getting lynched, my claim would have done nothing, in my opinion. I wanted to however hold the card so that If I was going to die, that the reads I was providing had double validity. but it was mostly the first, I view my role as a form of vanilla in this game, and felt as though at the ly-2 moment it wasn't going to be relevant.
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Niv: I'd appreciate it if you could share more of Cythare's thoughts and how they differ from your own.
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Not Voting: KoolKoal, Cantripmancer, Niv
Deadline is in 12 hours 2 minutes
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Whoops. I can't read. Thanks for pointing that out.
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