Dancing's post is a pretty good start at explaining ER's issues thus far. Anyone else care to take a stab?
I would like you to, if you don't mind.
I've seen nothing from you, just cheerleading the actual posts of others being made on the subject. I want to see you actually demonstrate that you've got a position more than "I think I can lynch this guy". I may not agree with DM (Aside @DM: I'll respond to your post either within an hour or two before I sleep, or tomorrow. I'm unsure how my time will work out, but I'm not ignoring you), but he's actually trying to make a novel case. You are not doing so, let alone even trying to have an opinion of your own.
Just got to say, you've definitely earned distinction as an MTGS hero
Quote from Stardust »
Because he's the hero MTGS deserves, and the one it needs right now. So we'll global him. Because he can take it. Because he's not just our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. An expired rascal.
Quote from LuckNorris »
ExpiredRascals you sir are a god-like hero.
Quote from Lanxal »
ER is a masterful god who cannot be beaten in any endeavour.
Dancing's post is a pretty good start at explaining ER's issues thus far. Anyone else care to take a stab?
I would like you to, if you don't mind.
I've seen nothing from you, just cheerleading the actual posts of others being made on the subject. I want to see you actually demonstrate that you've got a position more than "I think I can lynch this guy". I may not agree with DM (Aside @DM: I'll respond to your post either within an hour or two before I sleep, or tomorrow. I'm unsure how my time will work out, but I'm not ignoring you), but he's actually trying to make a novel case. You are not doing so, let alone even trying to have an opinion of your own.
Unvote. Vote: Azrael
Oh. My. God. You. SUCK!
Vote Expired Rascals.
~~~~
For now we can do a house claim. If that information proves valuable we can shift to a role claim after.
House Claim
Tanarin ~ Aye
Archmage Eternal ~ Aye
Asenion ~ Aye
Cythare ~ ?
Haiiro Sedai ~ Aye
Sir Karn ~ ?
iRebel ~ Aye
Dancing Mad ~ ?
Azrael ~ Nay
ExpiredRascals ~ Nay
Arianrhod ~ ?
Deaths_Vampire ~ Aye
Aye ~ 6
Nay ~ 2
Not voting ~ 4
So, DM, Arianrhod, Cythare, and Sir Karn need to take a stance. One more Aye and we have a majority for house claim.
House claim is fine by me. Checking in from my phone at the moment....will be catching up later. Was out of town all weekend and now we have no powerr ._.
Just got to say, you've definitely earned distinction as an MTGS hero
Quote from Stardust »
Because he's the hero MTGS deserves, and the one it needs right now. So we'll global him. Because he can take it. Because he's not just our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. An expired rascal.
Quote from LuckNorris »
ExpiredRascals you sir are a god-like hero.
Quote from Lanxal »
ER is a masterful god who cannot be beaten in any endeavour.
Just got to say, you've definitely earned distinction as an MTGS hero
Quote from Stardust »
Because he's the hero MTGS deserves, and the one it needs right now. So we'll global him. Because he can take it. Because he's not just our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. An expired rascal.
Quote from LuckNorris »
ExpiredRascals you sir are a god-like hero.
Quote from Lanxal »
ER is a masterful god who cannot be beaten in any endeavour.
Just got to say, you've definitely earned distinction as an MTGS hero
Quote from Stardust »
Because he's the hero MTGS deserves, and the one it needs right now. So we'll global him. Because he can take it. Because he's not just our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. An expired rascal.
Quote from LuckNorris »
ExpiredRascals you sir are a god-like hero.
Quote from Lanxal »
ER is a masterful god who cannot be beaten in any endeavour.
I don't. He just claimed neutral. We can pressure him for his win condition after everyone has claimed. I was really hoping no one would make a big deal about it before others claimed though in case anyone was ignorant and claimed more unintentionally.
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An accurate description of myself:
Quote from Megiddo »
You're the dude who just lies a lot and makes people hate you and then magically becomes town later, right?
Vote "No" on mass-claim of any stripe. The OP says that some people have ready-made false claims, and I'll go out on a limb and say that those with false claims probably aren't pro-town.
Now, the selection he quotes says that any given player "may" be given a false claim. I certainly didn't leap the assumption that this would mean that every scum or neutral player received such a claim, but it seems as though Expired's perception of the situation is that false claims are so widespread as to make any mass-claim attempt futile. That would suggest that ER has knowledge not simply of his own role as a neutral, but of multiple roles in the game.
*For further analysis of ER's first post, see my reference to Dancing's post, below.*
If my theory of an ER/Asenion connection holds up, this extremely short post is worth considering in context.
When DV did something slightly strange, his initial instinct was to view with instant suspicion.
Now, what Asenion did there is much more interesting. He states that he's on board with a mass claim, without providing any reasoning why. That's a definite red flag. A townie's first instinct when confronted with such a radical and risky proposition is to think through the pros and cons and provide a considered response. We have none of that here - we just have simple, bare-faced signal that Asenion wants to put himself on record as unafraid of any mass-claim. If Asenion is experienced enough to know that the scum often get nervous about mass-claims, he'd want to avoid that impression, but he might forget that he actually needs to mimic the townie thought process more convincingly.
When Asenion fails to provide reasoning, what's ER move? He prods Asenion to shore up his post with additional reasoning - something that scum buddies are often tempted to do, to both appear inquisitive and shore up their buddy's credibility.
Hence, at post 43:
Quote from Azrael »
So Expired Rascals, Asenion...come on, third scum. Reveal thyself!
Then there's this post:
Quote from Asenion »
I'm open to a mass claim on Day 1 because this game has an exceptionally high amount of non-Town players in it. Since RVS is well and truly over now, let's start on some set-up analysis.
12 players
X Town
1-2 Scum (probably)
1 unknown Neutral
1 unknown Neutral
1 unknown Neutral
We have at MOST 8 Townies in the game. Much more likely 6-7. Possibly as low as 5, but I doubt it because that would leave us without a majority on Day 1. (Which is an instant veto from me as a reviewer, and hopefully most others.)
It's possible the scum have as many as 3, but highly unlikely with 3+ neutrals. I'm expecting a Survivor, a Hit-Man, and a third neutral of a different type. The scum could also be a Serial Killer if alone or a Mentor variant.
Now the value of a mass-claim, is that we can lock in everyone. Normally you out too many power roles, but in a game where it's likely that nearly half the game is non-Town, we could get more value from keeping people tied to their claims than from outing our power. Or at least it's worth talking about. Some of them might have prepared claims, but others might not. Even if they do, lying about their role this early will start the spider web and might catch some of them off-balance.
Another thing we need to talk about is how to address the Third-Parties. If we do have a Hit-Man or Serial Killer, they probably have to die along with the scum. But how do we deal with other types of Neutral claims? Because of the high density of them we can't focus on them or we won't ever catch scum, but we can't ignore them either without losing control of the lynch.
You know, initially, I thought this was worth downgrading Asenion's suspicion level. On second thought, I think it's anything but.
Where the hell is any of this information coming from? Three unknown neutrals? Only a pair of scum? This is quite specific, and quite unusual. Five factions doesn't necessarily mean three neutrals, does it? And he's gone so far as to break them down into the types of neutrals he expects?
Obviously, there's something more to his role PM than a regular game - fair enough, mine's the same way. But the proportion of information he seems to have on the makeup of probable scum - well, it doesn't give me any warm and cuddly feelings.
Especially considering that this is a very long, drawn-out explanation, in response to a prod by a possible scum buddy, over a post that was initially only a single sentence long. This reads more like something that was thought-out after the fact, rather than before - there's no hint of it at all in that first, single sentence post by Asenion.
Quote from Asenion »
Quote from arianrhod »
Vote ExpiredRascals
You've been scum in every game I've played with you!
Is the reason I wanted to end RVS. It doesn't read like a joke or RVS post to me, it reads like someone nervous trying to join in. Doesn't help him any that he hasn't posted again in almost 24 hours since the game started heating up.
This attack on Arian's random vote also seems overstated, primarily due to the fact that he mentions the lack of posting for 24 hours. I could get behind the awkwardness tell, but a 24 hour lack of posts reads like pretty blatant padding of the case.
Quote from Asenion »
I also want to clarify what we are claiming before this gets too serious. Role, alignment (a valid thing to discuss this game), house, flavor, etc.
I think total and full claim is an option. I also think just an alignment claim to clear the room of any Neutrals on the fence about it is reasonable. Claiming only role is probably the worst option.
I've been keeping track in my head of the alignments who joke that they're scum. Unless it's Azrael (who does it like literally every game), more often than not, I've found they are scum. Even as a joke, it has much more appeal for scum than town; for most people, being able to say "I'm scum" and be telling the truth is far more entertaining than just making stuff up.
And the way it's done here reads off. It's very...careful? You don't just "raise your hand," you make it as clear as you can that you are, indisputably, joking and shouldn't be taken seriously.
Now the value of a mass-claim, is that we can lock in everyone. Normally you out too many power roles, but in a game where it's likely that nearly half the game is non-Town, we could get more value from keeping people tied to their claims than from outing our power. Or at least it's worth talking about. Some of them might have prepared claims, but others might not. Even if they do, lying about their role this early will start the spider web and might catch some of them off-balance.
I'm down for an alignment claim, but I don't like day 1 mass ability/role claims on principle. IMO, if mass-claiming day 1 is beneficial to the town, then the set-up needs work. That's like, the first thing a reviewer should check. I'd rather trust the mod to be competent than gamble on the set-up being designed poorly. I realize that set-ups in which day 1 massclaims are beneficial exist, but even if it works, it takes the satisfaction out of winning.
I think a house/alignment claim is worth doing though. As for claim order, popcorn is really the only way to do it this early as no one is going to agree. If possible I'd like ER to go first.
On second read, I retract that statement regarding a possible bus by Dancing. I think he's just good at what he does. In particular, his analysis of the "raises hand" comment is nicely explained. (*Goes here.)
Quote from ER »
@AE: I voted you because you were deliberately calling attention to yourself with that end sentence in a serious post. It's along the same lines as people asking "why is nobody pressuring me", it's just not a town thought process.
@DV: Answer me. And if we do go forward with this massclaim, I want you as one of the first three to claim.
@DM: I'm not sure how I feel about Az right now. I've not played a game with him yet, and those that I've seen him play don't fit a recognizable meta for me. When I have reads on players, I will give them. Right now, I just have hunches to follow, and Az isn't one of them. In other news however, your vote on me is terrible — you say that you're willing to give Az a pass on meta, but when my meta at best is a single game to you, you're willing to assume and assert that I fit your heuristic. And more importantly, your analysis of a RVS joke being "it reads like an RVS joke, ergo scummy" is terrible analysis. Get your vote off me.
@Mass Claim: Still opposed. It's a game that was reviewed to not break under mass claim, and the OP all but outright states that anti-town faction(s) got full safe claims. IF we do it, however: I want AE, DV, and Az as the first three. I don't care on the order therein, but the one starting the mass claim push needs to go early and the other two are the two who appear least townie to me. The order of the remaining nine of us matters not to me.
This is where my read really started getting cemented.
1. I don't follow the reasoning in his vote for AE. What's the logic in considering that a tell?
2. That's pushy.
3. I would expect something along the lines of "I don't have a read yet", but we get much more long-winded than that, almost striking an apologetic tone for not having a read on me yet. Then, immediately he segues into a very, very negative reaction to the single vote against him. It's "terrible", and he snaps at DM to "get your vote off me".
Really? A single vote, a hundred pages in, warrants that kind of overreaction?
Fourth paragraph: He thinks a mass-claim is a bad idea, and he has no read on me, but he's very adamant about the claim order he wants to see? We transferred awfully quickly from "this is a bad idea", to "if we're doing it, this is how we should maximize the utility of this bad idea".
Quote from ER »
Azrael, you're welcome to get your vote off me until you give reason to it.
Again, ER is reacting very, very heavily to just a couple of votes, and his demand for reasoning is tinged with an awful lot of thinly restrained anger.
A townie doesn't generally view two votes going his way early as a reason to turn this shade of crimson. For a scum player, however, to have already fallen under the spotlight this early in the game...
In addition, a number of people theorize that a scum player's first reaction to a reasonless case is to automatically request a reason to respond to, while a town player's first reaction tends to be more conversational or nonchalant. That when it appears a townie has caught them, but they don't know the reason why, it gets under their skin.
Quote from ER »
I would like you to, if you don't mind.
I've seen nothing from you, just cheerleading the actual posts of others being made on the subject. I want to see you actually demonstrate that you've got a position more than "I think I can lynch this guy". I may not agree with DM (Aside @DM: I'll respond to your post either within an hour or two before I sleep, or tomorrow. I'm unsure how my time will work out, but I'm not ignoring you), but he's actually trying to make a novel case. You are not doing so, let alone even trying to have an opinion of your own.
Unvote. Vote: Azrael
Like so.
And now we have an anger-fueled OMGUS vote.
No opinion of my own? Clearly, I have one, that I simply was not sharing. I made it perfectly clear that I have reasons that I consider quite persuasive. So why the misrep? Because he's tilted at the early pressure, and he's willing to cut corners on the truth in his rhetoric out of his frustration to derail a piddly 2-3 vote wagon.
And the reason that this 2-3 vote wagon is disturbing him so much, has little or nothing to do with the case presented, or the lack thereof - it's the fact that he's already under the microscope, when the game has just started.
Which, frankly, is a really sucky and frustrating position to be in as scum.
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
Humor note: that's probably the angriest that my in-browser spell-checker has ever been at me. My entire post box is red.
Assuming AE's claim is also Galloux, that gives us 9 purported Gallicans. 6/3/1/1/1 seems logical, although I could also see 7/2/1/1/1.
One thing that is somewhat concerning to me is that the way the flavor is written suggests more of a civil war and not so much a "good guys / bad guys" thing, which to my mind reads as there being possibly a 5/4/1/1/1 split. The only way this would work, though, is if there were additional restrictions on the sucm win condition, which we have no way of knowing. As such, I believe that the most balanced option (6/3/1/1/1) should be our working hypothesis.
My question: does everyone else also have an ability activated by possession of the Imperial Signet?
Humor note: that's probably the angriest that my in-browser spell-checker has ever been at me. My entire post box is red.
Assuming AE's claim is also Galloux, that gives us 9 purported Gallicans. 6/3/1/1/1 seems logical, although I could also see 7/2/1/1/1.
One thing that is somewhat concerning to me is that the way the flavor is written suggests more of a civil war and not so much a "good guys / bad guys" thing, which to my mind reads as there being possibly a 5/4/1/1/1 split. The only way this would work, though, is if there were additional restrictions on the sucm win condition, which we have no way of knowing. As such, I believe that the most balanced option (6/3/1/1/1) should be our working hypothesis.
My question: does everyone else also have an ability activated by possession of the Imperial Signet?
Not everyone else has that, no.
I also think it's not a good idea to assume that faction and alignment are synonymous terms. Entirely aside from false claims, our so-called factions *could* be allied with either Gallica, or with the scum, with themselves, with each other, or with the mod, for all we know.
Which raises the issue: do we want to seek an alignment claim and/or a flavor claim? My inclination, if we've come this far, is yes on both fronts. However, in the event that we do have a possible hitman, leaving out flavor or at least names could be a good idea.
At the least, I don't know why we wouldn't seek alignment claims as well, but, I could envision some really unusual scenarios where it might be bad? If so, someone should I pipe up with that.
Regardless, for the record, mine is the standard win con.
Humor note: that's probably the angriest that my in-browser spell-checker has ever been at me. My entire post box is red.
Assuming AE's claim is also Galloux, that gives us 9 purported Gallicans. 6/3/1/1/1 seems logical, although I could also see 7/2/1/1/1.
One thing that is somewhat concerning to me is that the way the flavor is written suggests more of a civil war and not so much a "good guys / bad guys" thing, which to my mind reads as there being possibly a 5/4/1/1/1 split. The only way this would work, though, is if there were additional restrictions on the sucm win condition, which we have no way of knowing. As such, I believe that the most balanced option (6/3/1/1/1) should be our working hypothesis.
My question: does everyone else also have an ability activated by possession of the Imperial Signet?
Not everyone else has that, no.
I also think it's not a good idea to assume that faction and alignment are synonymous terms. Entirely aside from false claims, our so-called factions *could* be allied with either Gallica, or with the scum, with themselves, with each other, or with the mod, for all we know.
Which raises the issue: do we want to seek an alignment claim and/or a flavor claim? My inclination, if we've come this far, is yes on both fronts. However, in the event that we do have a possible hitman, leaving out flavor or at least names could be a good idea.
At the least, I don't know why we wouldn't seek alignment claims as well, but, I could envision some really unusual scenarios where it might be bad? If so, someone should I pipe up with that.
Regardless, for the record, mine is the standard win con.
Also, Silver, thoughts on ER and Asenion?
While you have valid points in your PBPA of ER, it's kind of neutered a little by his Neutral Claim, IMO (or, at least, non-town faction, regardless of wincon/alignment). Your point about the unknown win conditions and alliances of the varying neutrals is well-received, and I don't think that we should rush off lynching the non-town-claimed factions immediately.
At this point, the only neutral I am concerned about enough to consider a lynch is Sedai, and that is purely for flavor reasons. Sedai's faction per the OP flavor is a neighboring nation, not a regnant house. History has taught that neighboring nations, when placed in situations such as that which is being portrayed in this game, are not exactly trustworthy.
As for Asenion, his posts so far are tickling my gut. Unfortunately, this tickling is primarily caused by my opinion in [redacted], which renders it completely baseless.
Regarding a further claim, I am very interested to hear who has Signet abilities. I don't think that we need to know who is in possession of the Signet at the moment, but knowing who has an ability for it could be useful. A win-con claim seems like it would be fairly pointless, to be blunt. if any of the neutrals want to claim their win-con, then that would be fine -- although it wouldn't be provable anyway, so I'm not sure that it would even benefit us at all. Flavor-claim seems like an actively bad idea.
While you have valid points in your PBPA of ER, it's kind of neutered a little by his Neutral Claim, IMO (or, at least, non-town faction, regardless of wincon/alignment). Your point about the unknown win conditions and alliances of the varying neutrals is well-received, and I don't think that we should rush off lynching the non-town-claimed factions immediately.
Disagree strongly with this approach. A "neutral" faction claim should be ignored in favor of actual behavioral analysis. Since there is no reason to regard a player's faction as strongly indicative of town alignment, and there is certainly reason to suspect that one or more of the neutral parties could in fact be a scum in disguise, AND there is no reason to think that everyone has been fully truthful in their faction-claiming...
Ignoring someone who is suspect based on a neutral claim seems to be a very, very dangerous idea.
The day isn't any less forgiving now than when it began. An unseasonably hot March sun makes your ascent of the Neralbians arduous, but fails to shine any light on the group's more pressing problems. So, with the immediate threat of a Verenberg pursuit gone, Alexander decides to stop on a rock outcropping, surveying the empty expanse between the mountains and Ripae—now a speck in the distance. As you sip water out of your goatskin, you see the same thing he did: there's not a single Verenberg regiment in sight. For whatever cause, the Verenberg legions have fallen back to Ripae; now, your only enemies are those already among you.
After only a minute of resting on the shelf, you hear footsteps pattering down the path above you. They come from a nimble man wearing a grey muslin uniform, heavy of breath and red of brow: a military courier. He stops when he reaches you, catching his breath for less than a second before greeting you. "Well met, friends. Are you the last ones on this path?"
"We haven't seen another group for three hours. The closest buses were several miles south of us."
He puts his hands on his hips and nods. "Okay. Keep hiking along the rock face up ahead—bear right when you're given the choice—and you'll reach a col in five miles. That will start you on the quickest route to Lidge. Oh!" he stops himself, "I forgot to say, Lidge is our new goal. Emperor Troussant wants to regroup there and make for Levere afterward."
"Troussant is safe, then?"
The courier nods. "Yes. His Majesty's shoulder was hit by a musket ball, but he's safe and scarcely injured. By God's grace, his retinue was able to escape the Verenberg enclosure before it fully formed. There's a pass they took through the Neralbians accessible to horse—he should make it to Lidge with the Garde Impériale and the rest of his retinue within a day."
Horseback. That's a novel idea. "Could you send horses for us?"
"We have none to spare! And even so, they wouldn't do you an ounce of good until the other side of the ridge. The rest of your path up is too rocky. You'll have to make do on foot for now, I'm afraid." Looking a bit hurried, he opens his pocket-watch and double-takes. "Ah! Joachim is being coronated right now. Right now, as in, he should be getting a crown put on his head this very minute. Well," he bows slightly to the group, "I need to be off; I'd like to make it back to Ripae by nightfall. We have pigeons flying out of the capital, but it's too risky for Troussant to be flying them into there, so it looks like it's up to us couriers after all. Safe travels." With that he continues down the path—and you continue up it.
Vote Count 1.2
ExpiredRascals (5): Arianrhod, Dancing Mad, Azrael, Haiiro Sedai, Sir Karn
At this point, the only neutral I am concerned about enough to consider a lynch is Sedai, and that is purely for flavor reasons. Sedai's faction per the OP flavor is a neighboring nation, not a regnant house. History has taught that neighboring nations, when placed in situations such as that which is being portrayed in this game, are not exactly trustworthy.
Ah, but which member of the house I am makes me much less likely to raise armies. I am an illegitimate child of my house and the old Emperor's. I grew up in hiding unable to leave the tyranny of the old empire who do not take a liking to my kind (bastard nobility). My people are trying to take advantage of the strife to smuggle me home where I can have a normal life. Iam a ssurvivor. If I am alive at the end I get to go home to enjoy the rest of my childhood.
Alright neutrals, I revealed my win condition, wabout the rest?
While you have valid points in your PBPA of ER, it's kind of neutered a little by his Neutral Claim, IMO (or, at least, non-town faction, regardless of wincon/alignment). Your point about the unknown win conditions and alliances of the varying neutrals is well-received, and I don't think that we should rush off lynching the non-town-claimed factions immediately.
Disagree strongly with this approach. A "neutral" faction claim should be ignored in favor of actual behavioral analysis. Since there is no reason to regard a player's faction as strongly indicative of town alignment, and there is certainly reason to suspect that one or more of the neutral parties could in fact be a scum in disguise, AND there is no reason to think that everyone has been fully truthful in their faction-claiming...
Ignoring someone who is suspect based on a neutral claim seems to be a very, very dangerous idea.
Devoting time and resources to lynching neutrals is equally dangerous, to my mind. Due to the three neutrals, there cannot be too many town in this game (6 or 7, most likely). We don't have to lynch too many neutrals to find ourselves in an unwinnable position.
Also, if anyone is claiming Galloux who is actually one of the neutral factions claimed, that person should definitely counter-claim.
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I would like you to, if you don't mind.
I've seen nothing from you, just cheerleading the actual posts of others being made on the subject. I want to see you actually demonstrate that you've got a position more than "I think I can lynch this guy". I may not agree with DM (Aside @DM: I'll respond to your post either within an hour or two before I sleep, or tomorrow. I'm unsure how my time will work out, but I'm not ignoring you), but he's actually trying to make a novel case. You are not doing so, let alone even trying to have an opinion of your own.
Unvote. Vote: Azrael
Body Count: GRRRUUUUUUUUUUU
إن سرقت إسرق جمل
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Oh. My. God. You. SUCK!
Vote Expired Rascals.
~~~~
For now we can do a house claim. If that information proves valuable we can shift to a role claim after.
House Claim
Aye ~ 6
Nay ~ 2
Not voting ~ 4
So, DM, Arianrhod, Cythare, and Sir Karn need to take a stance. One more Aye and we have a majority for house claim.
Sigil: an MMORPCCG ">Mexus: An MMORPCCG
I believe Dancing Mad can go first, but I support popcorn the rest of the way.
Sigil: an MMORPCCG ">Mexus: An MMORPCCG
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I'd like ER to go next.
Body Count: GRRRUUUUUUUUUUU
إن سرقت إسرق جمل
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Body Count: GRRRUUUUUUUUUUU
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Vote: ER
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
I'm not stopping anyone.
Also, my vote isn't 100% claim related (though it's not not related) - I just read 89 and 102.
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Before that happens I want to hear DMs name and role name. Then we can decide what to do.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
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They hate us cause they ain't us.
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
They hate us cause they ain't us.
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
They hate us cause they ain't us.
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
You did though.
Cythare?
Sigil: an MMORPCCG ">Mexus: An MMORPCCG
Sure looked like you did with the timing of the vote.
I'm from the House of Galloux. Karn, you next.
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Now, the selection he quotes says that any given player "may" be given a false claim. I certainly didn't leap the assumption that this would mean that every scum or neutral player received such a claim, but it seems as though Expired's perception of the situation is that false claims are so widespread as to make any mass-claim attempt futile. That would suggest that ER has knowledge not simply of his own role as a neutral, but of multiple roles in the game.
*For further analysis of ER's first post, see my reference to Dancing's post, below.*
This round of interrogation gets more serious than it deserves, rather quickly. The impression I get is that of an itchy trigger finger.
If my theory of an ER/Asenion connection holds up, this extremely short post is worth considering in context.
When DV did something slightly strange, his initial instinct was to view with instant suspicion.
Now, what Asenion did there is much more interesting. He states that he's on board with a mass claim, without providing any reasoning why. That's a definite red flag. A townie's first instinct when confronted with such a radical and risky proposition is to think through the pros and cons and provide a considered response. We have none of that here - we just have simple, bare-faced signal that Asenion wants to put himself on record as unafraid of any mass-claim. If Asenion is experienced enough to know that the scum often get nervous about mass-claims, he'd want to avoid that impression, but he might forget that he actually needs to mimic the townie thought process more convincingly.
When Asenion fails to provide reasoning, what's ER move? He prods Asenion to shore up his post with additional reasoning - something that scum buddies are often tempted to do, to both appear inquisitive and shore up their buddy's credibility.
Hence, at post 43:
Then there's this post:
You know, initially, I thought this was worth downgrading Asenion's suspicion level. On second thought, I think it's anything but.
Where the hell is any of this information coming from? Three unknown neutrals? Only a pair of scum? This is quite specific, and quite unusual. Five factions doesn't necessarily mean three neutrals, does it? And he's gone so far as to break them down into the types of neutrals he expects?
Obviously, there's something more to his role PM than a regular game - fair enough, mine's the same way. But the proportion of information he seems to have on the makeup of probable scum - well, it doesn't give me any warm and cuddly feelings.
Especially considering that this is a very long, drawn-out explanation, in response to a prod by a possible scum buddy, over a post that was initially only a single sentence long. This reads more like something that was thought-out after the fact, rather than before - there's no hint of it at all in that first, single sentence post by Asenion.
This attack on Arian's random vote also seems overstated, primarily due to the fact that he mentions the lack of posting for 24 hours. I could get behind the awkwardness tell, but a 24 hour lack of posts reads like pretty blatant padding of the case.
*shrug*
On second read, I retract that statement regarding a possible bus by Dancing. I think he's just good at what he does. In particular, his analysis of the "raises hand" comment is nicely explained. (*Goes here.)
This is where my read really started getting cemented.
1. I don't follow the reasoning in his vote for AE. What's the logic in considering that a tell?
2. That's pushy.
3. I would expect something along the lines of "I don't have a read yet", but we get much more long-winded than that, almost striking an apologetic tone for not having a read on me yet. Then, immediately he segues into a very, very negative reaction to the single vote against him. It's "terrible", and he snaps at DM to "get your vote off me".
Really? A single vote, a hundred pages in, warrants that kind of overreaction?
Fourth paragraph: He thinks a mass-claim is a bad idea, and he has no read on me, but he's very adamant about the claim order he wants to see? We transferred awfully quickly from "this is a bad idea", to "if we're doing it, this is how we should maximize the utility of this bad idea".
Again, ER is reacting very, very heavily to just a couple of votes, and his demand for reasoning is tinged with an awful lot of thinly restrained anger.
A townie doesn't generally view two votes going his way early as a reason to turn this shade of crimson. For a scum player, however, to have already fallen under the spotlight this early in the game...
In addition, a number of people theorize that a scum player's first reaction to a reasonless case is to automatically request a reason to respond to, while a town player's first reaction tends to be more conversational or nonchalant. That when it appears a townie has caught them, but they don't know the reason why, it gets under their skin.
Like so.
And now we have an anger-fueled OMGUS vote.
No opinion of my own? Clearly, I have one, that I simply was not sharing. I made it perfectly clear that I have reasons that I consider quite persuasive. So why the misrep? Because he's tilted at the early pressure, and he's willing to cut corners on the truth in his rhetoric out of his frustration to derail a piddly 2-3 vote wagon.
And the reason that this 2-3 vote wagon is disturbing him so much, has little or nothing to do with the case presented, or the lack thereof - it's the fact that he's already under the microscope, when the game has just started.
Which, frankly, is a really sucky and frustrating position to be in as scum.
What's this all about?
I wasn't going to talk about it until after the massclaim. Asenion was the one that started talking about it.
---
I'm House of Wisteroff
Was it not obvious?
House of Anatolis
Tanarian.
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@Azreal: I got my information from the opening post that shows 5 color coded teams. The rest was guesswork and some reasearch on the mafiascum wiki.
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
iRebel is next
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Popcorn to Asenion
UUU Azami, Lady of Scrolls
RRR Diaochan, Artful Beauty
UR(U/R) Tibor, Lumia, & Melek (WIP)
Mafia Stats
Umm, who is left to popcorn to? All the people I cared about have already claimed and we found the neutrals.
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My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
DM: Galloux
Azrael: Galloux
Cythare: Galloux
Tanarin: Galloux
iRebel: Galloux
Asenion: Galloux
DV: Galloux
Arianrhod: Galloux
ER: Mensor
Karn: Wisteroff
Sedai: Anatolis
AE: ???
Humor note: that's probably the angriest that my in-browser spell-checker has ever been at me. My entire post box is red.
Assuming AE's claim is also Galloux, that gives us 9 purported Gallicans. 6/3/1/1/1 seems logical, although I could also see 7/2/1/1/1.
One thing that is somewhat concerning to me is that the way the flavor is written suggests more of a civil war and not so much a "good guys / bad guys" thing, which to my mind reads as there being possibly a 5/4/1/1/1 split. The only way this would work, though, is if there were additional restrictions on the sucm win condition, which we have no way of knowing. As such, I believe that the most balanced option (6/3/1/1/1) should be our working hypothesis.
My question: does everyone else also have an ability activated by possession of the Imperial Signet?
Not everyone else has that, no.
I also think it's not a good idea to assume that faction and alignment are synonymous terms. Entirely aside from false claims, our so-called factions *could* be allied with either Gallica, or with the scum, with themselves, with each other, or with the mod, for all we know.
Which raises the issue: do we want to seek an alignment claim and/or a flavor claim? My inclination, if we've come this far, is yes on both fronts. However, in the event that we do have a possible hitman, leaving out flavor or at least names could be a good idea.
At the least, I don't know why we wouldn't seek alignment claims as well, but, I could envision some really unusual scenarios where it might be bad? If so, someone should I pipe up with that.
Regardless, for the record, mine is the standard win con.
Also, Silver, thoughts on ER and Asenion?
While you have valid points in your PBPA of ER, it's kind of neutered a little by his Neutral Claim, IMO (or, at least, non-town faction, regardless of wincon/alignment). Your point about the unknown win conditions and alliances of the varying neutrals is well-received, and I don't think that we should rush off lynching the non-town-claimed factions immediately.
At this point, the only neutral I am concerned about enough to consider a lynch is Sedai, and that is purely for flavor reasons. Sedai's faction per the OP flavor is a neighboring nation, not a regnant house. History has taught that neighboring nations, when placed in situations such as that which is being portrayed in this game, are not exactly trustworthy.
As for Asenion, his posts so far are tickling my gut. Unfortunately, this tickling is primarily caused by my opinion in [redacted], which renders it completely baseless.
Regarding a further claim, I am very interested to hear who has Signet abilities. I don't think that we need to know who is in possession of the Signet at the moment, but knowing who has an ability for it could be useful. A win-con claim seems like it would be fairly pointless, to be blunt. if any of the neutrals want to claim their win-con, then that would be fine -- although it wouldn't be provable anyway, so I'm not sure that it would even benefit us at all. Flavor-claim seems like an actively bad idea.
Disagree strongly with this approach. A "neutral" faction claim should be ignored in favor of actual behavioral analysis. Since there is no reason to regard a player's faction as strongly indicative of town alignment, and there is certainly reason to suspect that one or more of the neutral parties could in fact be a scum in disguise, AND there is no reason to think that everyone has been fully truthful in their faction-claiming...
Ignoring someone who is suspect based on a neutral claim seems to be a very, very dangerous idea.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
OK DM if you will.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
After only a minute of resting on the shelf, you hear footsteps pattering down the path above you. They come from a nimble man wearing a grey muslin uniform, heavy of breath and red of brow: a military courier. He stops when he reaches you, catching his breath for less than a second before greeting you. "Well met, friends. Are you the last ones on this path?"
"We haven't seen another group for three hours. The closest buses were several miles south of us."
He puts his hands on his hips and nods. "Okay. Keep hiking along the rock face up ahead—bear right when you're given the choice—and you'll reach a col in five miles. That will start you on the quickest route to Lidge. Oh!" he stops himself, "I forgot to say, Lidge is our new goal. Emperor Troussant wants to regroup there and make for Levere afterward."
"Troussant is safe, then?"
The courier nods. "Yes. His Majesty's shoulder was hit by a musket ball, but he's safe and scarcely injured. By God's grace, his retinue was able to escape the Verenberg enclosure before it fully formed. There's a pass they took through the Neralbians accessible to horse—he should make it to Lidge with the Garde Impériale and the rest of his retinue within a day."
Horseback. That's a novel idea. "Could you send horses for us?"
"We have none to spare! And even so, they wouldn't do you an ounce of good until the other side of the ridge. The rest of your path up is too rocky. You'll have to make do on foot for now, I'm afraid." Looking a bit hurried, he opens his pocket-watch and double-takes. "Ah! Joachim is being coronated right now. Right now, as in, he should be getting a crown put on his head this very minute. Well," he bows slightly to the group, "I need to be off; I'd like to make it back to Ripae by nightfall. We have pigeons flying out of the capital, but it's too risky for Troussant to be flying them into there, so it looks like it's up to us couriers after all. Safe travels." With that he continues down the path—and you continue up it.
Vote Count 1.2
Ah, but which member of the house I am makes me much less likely to raise armies. I am an illegitimate child of my house and the old Emperor's. I grew up in hiding unable to leave the tyranny of the old empire who do not take a liking to my kind (bastard nobility). My people are trying to take advantage of the strife to smuggle me home where I can have a normal life. Iam a ssurvivor. If I am alive at the end I get to go home to enjoy the rest of my childhood.
Alright neutrals, I revealed my win condition, wabout the rest?
Unvote
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Still rsv vote.
FOS ER, not wanting to jump the gun here and waiting on DM and others.
Devoting time and resources to lynching neutrals is equally dangerous, to my mind. Due to the three neutrals, there cannot be too many town in this game (6 or 7, most likely). We don't have to lynch too many neutrals to find ourselves in an unwinnable position.
Also, if anyone is claiming Galloux who is actually one of the neutral factions claimed, that person should definitely counter-claim.