Rhand
The "weird" vibes that you are getting from KK, would you please explain why this is scumKK compared to townKK? And why you belive this to be a scum mindset?
I can't compare to scumkk, but the confidence with which he posts and the involvement he shows are not the townkk that I know.
His posts come off as too calculated.
Why is this a scum mind set and not a town mind set?
You didn't answer sufficently enough.
TownKK is more spontaneous. He always comes off as scummy in his early game. I have the impression that he's too consciously trying not to do that.
I'm happy that you can apply a meta read to KK, but that is not what I am askinf for. Meta =/= mind set. Leave out other games and focus on this game for this question for a moment. Then explain why this is a scum mind set.
Town doesn't need to consciously try not to look scummy.
Arianrhod
Have you read any games that KK has been in? I don't have time to read back at the moment to find this answer.
No, I haven't. I played with him in Ataghan (I was scum, he was town and randomly screwed the neutral to hilarious effect). I'm also playing with him currently in Survival Horror -- but I haven't been in any other completed games or read any completed games that he's been in.
KK
I'm having trouble following you on your Arianrhod case. Would you please more specific on what "behavioral tell" Arianrhod has commited?
1) He barns Rhand saying that, in his experience, I post very transparently and without putting much thought on it, which is not what he's seeing here. Asks me about what I think of it. As a side point, he textbook answers a legit question by hawk.
2) I disagree, and he smears me for being defeatist. Says I'm very relaxed when I'm town.
3) I confront him about how flawed it is for him to believe I'm transparent as town when he has only one game as basis for comparisons, in which he was scum.
4) He backs off, supposedly for misreading my post. But in his way out, gives a bad justification as why he considers me transparent "in his opinion, not his experience".
5) I push him more. How are his opinions not the same as his experience? Why is he achieving conclusions based on things he couldn't possible know?
6) He answers by delving into (flawed) philosophy. Now here's the big thing: he did the very same thing as scum when I got him in Ataghan.
EWP: @Silver: Oh but I do have. You can't simply dismiss my metacall on you by saying you "I only do it with you!". And it's not even a matter of philosophical disagreements: all your philosophical rhetoric to me in Ataghan was bull, as you had indeed scumslipped. I've pointed out flaws in your logic here as well. Why wouldn't I think you're cornered and are attempting the same thing?
(Btw just for clarification, I like you very much as a player, especially your politeness).
Nice handwave, but dismissing my other points will not make them disappear.
You don't even -have- any points. Nor does Hawk, or Eron. Okay, fine, you don't like me. Consider how many times I've been near-lynched on Day 1 (I think every single game I've played in, except two). You're not alone. But philosophical disagreements isn't enough to warrant a lynch. Gut feelings isn't enough. It's enough for pressure, sure, but you're gonna need to provide something to go off of beyond that. And then I'll respond, and everyone will hate me more, and I'll claim, and then I'll either get lynched or go on with the rest of the game. Not like I haven't been through this cycle before.
Bolded: Now you're being the same thing you claimed to have perceived on me: you are overly reacting to pressure. No one is lynching you yet. My case on you isn't based off "gut feelings". You're almost telling us we need to provide something else to prove your guilty because you are guilty but we still don't have enough.
Gonna go down the list bit-for-bit.
1) Hawk's question was a textbook question. I fail to see how my response was anything other than appropriate.
2) Problems with forum Mafia. I have no way to prove to you adequately that I did in fact misread you. You can either take me at my word, or choose to believe that I was fully aware of what I was doing. I don't see how this can possibly be anything more than a null because of that fact. It's a he said/she said.
3) We've already been over this (slash will likely go into it again by the end).
4) As you point out, my experience thusfar has been Ataghan and a little bit in Survival Horror which has to be thrown out since that game is ongoing. I DID think that you were in Giant Robot, but when I went back and looked for something I realized I was thinking of someone else. I fail to understand how my justification is invalid [more at the end].
5) See end.
6) When I'm pressured, I attempt to explain where I'm coming from in a clearer manner (see what I'm doing right now). For some reason, I only seem to get into the philosophical side of things with you -- but at best you're confirming that I'm still myself with this. This doesn't actually mean anything.
EWP / 7) I take some degree of offense to this. I'm a very earnest person, and I don't lie except when absolutely unavoidable. You may think that my philosophies are "bull," but they are what I actually think and how I actually see things. They are my viewpoint. You may disagree with it, or say that I'm trying to distract/cover something up, or whatever -- but the simple fact is that I'm trying to explain my thought processes to whoever is pushing me.
In fact, I would argue that the slip that we ended up arguing about in Ataghan was probably inevitable to happen (whether or not it would get caught) simply because of the philosophies which I tried to defend myself with.
(@btw: thanks =) I think that the reason I'm more inclined to get into these debates with you is that I feel you're at about the same level in this game as I am, so it fosters a "relative newbies unite" mentality. I'm too intimidated by half the people here to really joke with them like I would want to, for example)
EBWODB / 8) I'm just tired of this cycle. This is something like my 8th game now, and there have been TWO games out of those (including Survival Horror as one of the 8) where I've been okay on Day 1. One of them, I was basically mechanically confirmed immediately because I was a doublevoter (Giant Robot). The other AE basically imploded on d1 and there was never really a chance for anyone to go after me....so I was pushed hard on D2 instead. For whatever reason (OOG note: if judges have any idea why this keeps happening, I would LOVE to hear it postgame), I am constantly pushed on D1, forced to defend myself, defending myself makes more people push me, then I end up having to claim and the game goes on.
I feel somewhat like condescending wonka sitting here. Please, tell me how I shouldn't be tired of this after it's happened 6/8 times.
----------------
So, the "see more" bit. I'm going to back up and try to take this thing slowly, since it seems to be the only thing that you're even hung up on about me.
I have an impression (better word than opinion) of you. I have an impression of most people that I've played with, so this shouldn't be surprising or unorthodox. If I don't have an impression of someone, then that informs my opinion of that person. Misting is a good example here. I've played a full game with Misting before (we were both town in Giant Robot). But he didn't really leave much of an impact in my mind, so my impression of Misting is of someone who doesn't leave much of an impression. By comparison, my impression of Void is that Void is typically much more aggressive when he's town, and that he lurks when he's either unhappy with his role or is a power role.
You can call this meta if you want, but I would argue that it's more "experienced meta," because it's only informed by my personal experiences. This is where Hawk's point comes in -- sure you've had experiences outside of my knowledge. But I'm not talking about your other happenings. I'm not talking about meta-meta. I'm talking about me-meta.
Okay? Still with me? Pretty simple (I think).
Let's apply this directly to you.
Fact: I played with you in one completed game [Ataghan].
Fact: I was scum, which meant I knew you to be town or the neutral. Upon you randomly hitting Xyre as the neutral, I knew you to be town.
Fact: You were actually town and not some second neutral or something.
My impression of you from Ataghan was that you were actually quite similar to me. I've received a number of comments in postgames and from judges in the League that I have a very open, honest posting style (which was accurately prophesied to cause me trouble whenever I ended up getting a scum game. *shakes fist@Zionite*). You could call this transparent. I saw you as posting similarly to me -- this was my impression.
For emphasis...
Impression of Kosa: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
Now, this impression was informed by the fact that I knew you to be town in Ataghan. Ergo, we can revise the impression...
Impression of Kosa as Town: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
So, when Rhand noted this game that he saw you as posting differently than you had as town in the past, I decided to look at your posts, and I saw the same thing that Rhand had. Your posting this game didn't agree with the impression that I had of you as town. I decided that it would be appropriate to apply some pressure because of that, and then we ended up here.
That's as clear as I can possibly make my thought processes. You can disagree with my leaps or my conclusions, but that's how I got there, and that's a fact.
Me neither. I have been trying to see this whole SF vs EtR situation, and just can't see the motivation behind a scum EtR making a post like that, giving away too much information. I am not saying his post about the chimes was a good post, but I wouldn't want a wagon on him simply for that. I will keep looking.
Rhand's posts after my lynch really are making me think I have one pegged. His whole vote on Kosa, even after saying he dislike SF seems insincere. I am looking at it by seeing that at this point (in my opinion) Kosa is more likely to draw a wagon than SF is based on my reads of all of you.
I can't compare to scumkk, but the confidence with which he posts and the involvement he shows are not the townkk that I know.
His posts come off as too calculated.
Why is being calculated a scum tell? My entire post you called me town for was nothing more than a calculation...
Town doesn't need to consciously try not to look scummy.
I disagree. If townies posts came off scummy, they can get lynched just as fast a mafia member who came off scummy. It is in the town players best interest to make their thoughts sincere, without coming off murky.
@Rhand: Do you have any finished scum games completed to date?
1) Hawk's question was a textbook question. I fail to see how my response was anything other than appropriate.
2) Problems with forum Mafia. I have no way to prove to you adequately that I did in fact misread you. You can either take me at my word, or choose to believe that I was fully aware of what I was doing. I don't see how this can possibly be anything more than a null because of that fact. It's a he said/she said.
3) We've already been over this (slash will likely go into it again by the end).
4) As you point out, my experience thusfar has been Ataghan and a little bit in Survival Horror which has to be thrown out since that game is ongoing. I DID think that you were in Giant Robot, but when I went back and looked for something I realized I was thinking of someone else. I fail to understand how my justification is invalid [more at the end].
5) See end.
6) When I'm pressured, I attempt to explain where I'm coming from in a clearer manner (see what I'm doing right now). For some reason, I only seem to get into the philosophical side of things with you -- but at best you're confirming that I'm still myself with this. This doesn't actually mean anything.
EWP / 7) I take some degree of offense to this. I'm a very earnest person, and I don't lie except when absolutely unavoidable. You may think that my philosophies are "bull," but they are what I actually think and how I actually see things. They are my viewpoint. You may disagree with it, or say that I'm trying to distract/cover something up, or whatever -- but the simple fact is that I'm trying to explain my thought processes to whoever is pushing me.
In fact, I would argue that the slip that we ended up arguing about in Ataghan was probably inevitable to happen (whether or not it would get caught) simply because of the philosophies which I tried to defend myself with.
(@btw: thanks =) I think that the reason I'm more inclined to get into these debates with you is that I feel you're at about the same level in this game as I am, so it fosters a "relative newbies unite" mentality. I'm too intimidated by half the people here to really joke with them like I would want to, for example)
EBWODB / 8) I'm just tired of this cycle. This is something like my 8th game now, and there have been TWO games out of those (including Survival Horror as one of the 8) where I've been okay on Day 1. One of them, I was basically mechanically confirmed immediately because I was a doublevoter (Giant Robot). The other AE basically imploded on d1 and there was never really a chance for anyone to go after me....so I was pushed hard on D2 instead. For whatever reason (OOG note: if judges have any idea why this keeps happening, I would LOVE to hear it postgame), I am constantly pushed on D1, forced to defend myself, defending myself makes more people push me, then I end up having to claim and the game goes on.
I feel somewhat like condescending wonka sitting here. Please, tell me how I shouldn't be tired of this after it's happened 6/8 times.
----------------
So, the "see more" bit. I'm going to back up and try to take this thing slowly, since it seems to be the only thing that you're even hung up on about me.
I have an impression (better word than opinion) of you. I have an impression of most people that I've played with, so this shouldn't be surprising or unorthodox. If I don't have an impression of someone, then that informs my opinion of that person. Misting is a good example here. I've played a full game with Misting before (we were both town in Giant Robot). But he didn't really leave much of an impact in my mind, so my impression of Misting is of someone who doesn't leave much of an impression. By comparison, my impression of Void is that Void is typically much more aggressive when he's town, and that he lurks when he's either unhappy with his role or is a power role.
You can call this meta if you want, but I would argue that it's more "experienced meta," because it's only informed by my personal experiences. This is where Hawk's point comes in -- sure you've had experiences outside of my knowledge. But I'm not talking about your other happenings. I'm not talking about meta-meta. I'm talking about me-meta.
Okay? Still with me? Pretty simple (I think).
Let's apply this directly to you.
Fact: I played with you in one completed game [Ataghan].
Fact: I was scum, which meant I knew you to be town or the neutral. Upon you randomly hitting Xyre as the neutral, I knew you to be town.
Fact: You were actually town and not some second neutral or something.
My impression of you from Ataghan was that you were actually quite similar to me. I've received a number of comments in postgames and from judges in the League that I have a very open, honest posting style (which was accurately prophesied to cause me trouble whenever I ended up getting a scum game. *shakes fist@Zionite*). You could call this transparent. I saw you as posting similarly to me -- this was my impression.
For emphasis...
Impression of Kosa: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
Now, this impression was informed by the fact that I knew you to be town in Ataghan. Ergo, we can revise the impression...
Impression of Kosa as Town: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
So, when Rhand noted this game that he saw you as posting differently than you had as town in the past, I decided to look at your posts, and I saw the same thing that Rhand had. Your posting this game didn't agree with the impression that I had of you as town. I decided that it would be appropriate to apply some pressure because of that, and then we ended up here.
That's as clear as I can possibly make my thought processes. You can disagree with my leaps or my conclusions, but that's how I got there, and that's a fact.
...I actually liked this answer a lot. It came out way clearer here than the philosophical approach (which, you can't deny it, was bull in Ataghan, even if you posted it sincerely :p).
Unvote
We need more people in here. Where are RL, Truk, and AG?
Rhand's posts after my lynch really are making me think I have one pegged. His whole vote on Kosa, even after saying he dislike SF seems insincere. I am looking at it by seeing that at this point (in my opinion) Kosa is more likely to draw a wagon than SF is based on my reads of all of you.
What do you mean "after my lynch?"
Kosa wasn't under any fire when I posted my suspicion.
I answered your question and gave my biggest scumread in one post.
I think Eron is probably town, I have a scumlean on shark but not enough to vote him and I think Kosa is most likely scum.
I can't compare to scumkk, but the confidence with which he posts and the involvement he shows are not the townkk that I know.
His posts come off as too calculated.
Why is being calculated a scum tell? My entire post you called me town for was nothing more than a calculation...
A calculation and being calculated are two different things
I see being calculated as a possible scumtell for Kosa because it's not what I saw him doing as town. TownKosa doesn't think about how his posts look, he just posts what he thinks.
Town doesn't need to consciously try not to look scummy.
I disagree. If townies posts came off scummy, they can get lynched just as fast a mafia member who came off scummy. It is in the town players best interest to make their thoughts sincere, without coming off murky.
While this is true, there's a subtle difference there. Townies know that what they post does not come from a scummy mindset. They don't need to hide their reasons for posting.
Scum has to hide their intentions and will put more effort in keeping their posts clean.
@Rhand: Do you have any finished scum games completed to date?
No, I only have 2 completed town ones, one where I flipped town and one where I am still alive.
At the start of the game, I believe Meta to be very helpful in determing alignment.
When the game progresses and bodies start to drop, analyzing behaviour trumps Meta.
I have a scumread on Kosa because of how he is watching his language and is thinking about how we will read what he writes. I am not talking about the content of his posts.
When I say that townKosa just posts what he thinks, I mean that he doesn't care for how what he writes looks.
I wished I could explain this in Dutch :/
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
At the start of the game, I believe Meta to be very helpful in determing alignment.
When the game progresses and bodies start to drop, analyzing behaviour trumps Meta.
I have a scumread on Kosa because of how he is watching his language and is thinking about how we will read what he writes. I am not talking about the content of his posts.
When I say that townKosa just posts what he thinks, I mean that he doesn't care for how what he writes looks.
I wished I could explain this in Dutch :/
I kind of see where you are going with what you are saying. Sorry for so many questions. I wasn't sure how to ask it so that I could a better understanding of you meant.
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
I dislike this post.
The second sentence is a good question, but then in the third sentence he shows the need to give a reason to ask that question.
It reads as if he knows arian is town and makes up excuses to push him.
The first sentence further sweetens the cake, giving him an out for when arian flips town.
@Cyouni - I don't know if I can answer that. I still don't know which alignment Shark is so if my syntax is switching it has to be a subconcious thing. Right now, for example, I have him as leaning town due to the weak /barn that Arianrhod did.
So you have no reason for completely reversing opinions on Shark within 3 posts/4 hours.
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
Explain the rationale behind that last phrase further.
When I say that townKosa just posts what he thinks, I mean that he doesn't care for how what he writes looks.
This is incorrect. While I obviously don't join games thinking "oh, what behavior should I pick from my wardrobe for this one?", I do try to keep the same posting style throughout each game (normally depending on my role, my involvement in the game, etc), and that requires a good amount of thought refinement/filtering process:
Yea, I'm creating a whole hand of meta personalities for myself. This is almost-clueless townKosa, in contrast to passive-aggresive-modgamer townKosa from Eeveelution. There's the relentless-fullclaimer townKosa and the massive-lurker townKosa as well.
Ima working on the raging-inquisitor-bulldog townKosa, but it's lacking finesse.
The ones unreferenced are Innistrad, Vanilla and Steins;Gate, respectively. I didn't name them because they were still ongoing at that time.
In here, as you can see, I'm pending more towards meta usage, and not only this is an approach I haven't tried before, but it also needs decent memory and fair interpretation of past events so good, meaningful reads can be achieved.
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
Explain the rationale behind that last phrase further.
It is a logical proof, however I still disproved the argument using Bayes theorem. The probability of A given B is not equal to the probability of B given A, this is derived from Bayes theorem. The reason why I believe that it is good rational practice to use Bayes theorem is because it expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.
As far as my last phrase, I felt that Arian was town with his argument with Kosa but I still don't understand why town Arian would barn Shark in the beginning. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because I don't want to mislynch a townie with so many lurkers.
The way that I look at it, he had two motivations. The only town motivation I can see is trying to add pressure to EtR. This doesn't exactly make sense to me because Shark called out both EtR and TCM for the same thing but chose EtR. If Arian wanted to add pressure, wouldn't it have been better to vote for TCM?
The scum motivation is obvious, barn shark and get a quick lynch which is why I didn't like the fact that he had back to back barns.
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
Explain the rationale behind that last phrase further.
It is a logical proof, however I still disproved the argument using Bayes theorem. The probability of A given B is not equal to the probability of B given A, this is derived from Bayes theorem. The reason why I believe that it is good rational practice to use Bayes theorem is because it expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.
As far as my last phrase, I felt that Arian was town with his argument with Kosa but I still don't understand why town Arian would barn Shark in the beginning. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because I don't want to mislynch a townie with so many lurkers.
The way that I look at it, he had two motivations. The only town motivation I can see is trying to add pressure to EtR. This doesn't exactly make sense to me because Shark called out both EtR and TCM for the same thing but chose EtR. If Arian wanted to add pressure, wouldn't it have been better to vote for TCM?
The scum motivation is obvious, barn shark and get a quick lynch which is why I didn't like the fact that he had back to back barns.
Also I second the prods.
What you're missing, though, is that I liked TCM's post, whereas I felt that Eron's was a "hang-on," if you will. TCM was scum in OT2R (also a League game), and his style of posting / the points he was making there were quite different than what I've seen from TCM thusfar. So, until such time as I see something that I don't like from TCM, I'm going to have him in my leaning town pile.
Eron read as though he was essentially latching on to TCM's post, and making the same point as TCM was - but worse. This seemed to me to be sufficient reason for added pressure on Eron.
Thirded on prods. I feel like 1/3 of the game is actually playing. Day 1 is always miserable enough as it is =/
What you're missing, though, is that I liked TCM's post, whereas I felt that Eron's was a "hang-on," if you will. TCM was scum in OT2R (also a League game), and his style of posting / the points he was making there were quite different than what I've seen from TCM thusfar. So, until such time as I see something that I don't like from TCM, I'm going to have him in my leaning town pile.
Thirded on prods. I feel like 1/3 of the game is actually playing. Day 1 is always miserable enough as it is =/
I like the fact that this response was quick and has an honest feel.
Eron read as though he was essentially latching on to TCM's post, and making the same point as TCM was - but worse. This seemed to me to be sufficient reason for added pressure on Eron.
Ironically I felt you were latching on to Shark's post without adding anything to it.
I'm seeing this whole KK/Arianrhod back and forth as town against town. I'm not interested in lycning either of them at this point.
I see you're voting Shark. Why does your vote feel highly unenthusiastic?
Unenthusiatic I can understand since I have not gone into detail about Shark, yet. I have been watching his posts becasue his posting have been... erratic. I'm not sure if erratic is the right term to use here... Either way, I've been suspicious of Shark and that is why my vote has stayed on him.
I'm seeing this whole KK/Arianrhod back and forth as town against town. I'm not interested in lycning either of them at this point.
I see you're voting Shark. Why does your vote feel highly unenthusiastic?
Unenthusiatic I can understand since I have not gone into detail about Shark, yet. I have been watching his posts becasue his posting have been... erratic. I'm not sure if erratic is the right term to use here... Either way, I've been suspicious of Shark and that is why my vote has stayed on him.
Shark's posting so far has reminded me a great deal of OT2R -- he displayed the same erratic tendencies there (the whole thing about who was actually the governor on D2; and the mindgames that he was playing thereafter specifically).
I know you were NK'd N1 that game, Void, but if you read along after that point anyway, what do you think of that comparison? Would you say that it's a fair one?
Shark's posting so far has reminded me a great deal of OT2R -- he displayed the same erratic tendencies there (the whole thing about who was actually the governor on D2; and the mindgames that he was playing thereafter specifically).
I know you were NK'd N1 that game, Void, but if you read along after that point anyway, what do you think of that comparison? Would you say that it's a fair one?
I don't remember OTR2 to well since I only skimmed the game after my death.
Just because you say Shark is exhibting a similar posting style in this game compared to OTR2 does not mean that Shark will be the same alignment in this game. This is why I questioned Rhand about his Meta read on KK. Meta reads can be useful, but on there own they don't mean much.
Since you are bringing OTR2 into this read on Shark, would you please show some comparison from OTR2 that shows Shark is posting similary to this game here.
Shark's posting so far has reminded me a great deal of OT2R -- he displayed the same erratic tendencies there (the whole thing about who was actually the governor on D2; and the mindgames that he was playing thereafter specifically).
I know you were NK'd N1 that game, Void, but if you read along after that point anyway, what do you think of that comparison? Would you say that it's a fair one?
I don't remember OTR2 to well since I only skimmed the game after my death.
Just because you say Shark is exhibting a similar posting style in this game compared to OTR2 does not mean that Shark will be the same alignment in this game. This is why I questioned Rhand about his Meta read on KK. Meta reads can be useful, but on there own they don't mean much.
Since you are bringing OTR2 into this read on Shark, would you please show some comparison from OTR2 that shows Shark is posting similary to this game here.
@Arianrod: When you do this, I don't know if much could be used from D2, since I was playing as confirmed town (and essentially was), so you do need to provide solid reasoning if you do reference D2.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Me neither. I have been trying to see this whole SF vs EtR situation, and just can't see the motivation behind a scum EtR making a post like that, giving away too much information. I am not saying his post about the chimes was a good post, but I wouldn't want a wagon on him simply for that. I will keep looking.
Do you agree with EtR's logic in his responses for making each post to TMCT and 7hawk77? Do you believe that his reasoning is valid and can be clearly seen from those posts?
@Cyouni - I don't know if I can answer that. I still don't know which alignment Shark is so if my syntax is switching it has to be a subconcious thing. Right now, for example, I have him as leaning town due to the weak /barn that Arianrhod did.
So you have no reason for completely reversing opinions on Shark within 3 posts/4 hours.
/barn the question.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
This is from before Shark came out and claimed Governor, so Shark wasn't essentially confirmed town at that point.
I fully recognize that just because he's reading similarly here to me as what he did then does not mean that he's confirmed town here or anything of the like -- I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting, is that there are enough other viable suspects at this point in time without Shark needing to top the pile. I have Shark at leaning town and am awaiting more time to pass / more content to be generated before adjusting that read.
I find it very interesting in particular that only Raging_Levine and Truk were prodded -- especially when one goes back and looks at the player list.
Eron's been quiet for a few days. So has TCM. So has Cantrip. So has AE. So has AGod. So has TMCT. So has Misting.
Yet none of these players have been prodded. So, per my understanding of how prods work, these players are all active-lurking (I understand prods as being based on when the prodded player was last active on Salvation).
So yeah. I'm not saying that by providing meta of town!Shark playing somewhat erratic that therefore Shark=town...at all. But if attacking people that I have as leaning town is the play, then let's go after someone who isn't contributing to the game anyway -- they are guiltier by definition. Scum win in silence.
Edit via double. I should have clarified RE TCM and Cantrip specifically -- I know Cantrip has been busy lately, and I know that TCM posted not too long ago ... but compared to the amount of content that I'm used to seeing TCM generate, I feel like he is being unusually quiet...especially since he's been reading differently to me than he did in OT2R.
Do you agree with EtR's logic in his responses for making each post to TMCT and 7hawk77? Do you believe that his reasoning is valid and can be clearly seen from those posts?
I do. Specifically towards his last post to TMCT, he seems to be justifying why his response towards the number of chimes is valid. I say this because his post hurt my head, and makes me think that the discussion is nothing more than splitting hairs over why he slipped or didn't. The only thing I disliked from him was playing the whole "why me, and not TCM", primarily because I remember reading that trying to redirect like that can be considered a scum tell, but it this particular event, I thought the same thing so I can't really hold that against him.
Edit via double. I should have clarified RE TCM and Cantrip specifically -- I know Cantrip has been busy lately, and I know that TCM posted not too long ago ... but compared to the amount of content that I'm used to seeing TCM generate, I feel like he is being unusually quiet...especially since he's been reading differently to me than he did in OT2R.
I just posted yesterday and work a pair of jobs. Keep in mind that there is still a a few people who have yet to make a real post, and a few others who have not posted much. As much as I want to try and more forward with Rhand, I want to see what RL thinks, I want to see how AE is coming along with his read, I want to continue seeing if anything changes in the whole EtR v. SF thing goes. And with mild curiosity, I am keeping an eye on KK.
My posting style starts out slow in the early game, and picks up. I excel at the dead body analysis part of the game.
As far as my FoS, I like my votes to hold meaning so I would prefer to just leave it where it is with RVS and use FoS instead of just throwing my vote wherever giving strange signals. Currently I think that SS is the most suspicious, why wouldn't he be getting my FoS?
Why are you more worried about the signals you're giving out than voting who you think to be scummy (or "suspicious")?
And why wouldn't you unvote Shark in that case?
These were very good questions from Curious, but I still find it curious that he didn't catch Hawk's posts the first time around.
I see you answered the question I was asking of you. I will check your other game out soon.
I've seen town!void post this line several times previously. + to my opinion of Void.
I know Cyouni touched on this, but I wanted to be more specific: Why do you feel this is exclusive to town!Void; have you checked to see if he posts this line in his scum games?
@Cyouni: Re: 126: It was half-joking, half-serious comment on how utterly he fooled me in Steins;Gate. The only times I considered him scum even a little were in self-dialogue moments of "Unless Curious has fooled me completely..."
Void/Cyouni - I've liked the general interactions and questions from both of these players so far. Cyouni worries me because I can't tell a difference between his town or scum game based on S;G. Luckily he had at least 1 big slip in that game so I can afford to trust him
Why did you group these two together, then proceed to cite all the reasons you think Cyouni is town?
@Curious: From 132: I made the mistake of joining the spectator chat when I died in Steins;Gate, and it included the setup, which caused me to lose interest in keeping up with the game. I mostly skimmed D4. Why?
I dislike Shark more than EtR at this point.
His scumslip post and the reversing stance he took about you don't add up.
Eron on the other hand is showing his normal town reaction on pressure.
Just to be clear Shark, if your argument is around the fact that I scumslipped about the number of Chimes, and I in fact never stated a number of Chimes, your argument would then be invalid, would it not?
Contrary to the earlier posts of EtR, this smacks of scum mistaking "being right" for "being town".
I'm still rereading, but I'm going to have to finish later. Sorry that I'm not quite caught up.
@Eron -- I've never seen scum!Kosa, so I can't say for sure. If I were to guess, I would imagine him as being more confident (due to the concept of having a team behind you rather than going it solo -- was my experience in Ataghan at first, until we immediately fell apart), as well as more quick to react to pressure (guilty conscience). This is why I thought I had a good lead on him, because that's how I perceived him as reacting.
This is a better answer than I was expecting, however, I'm still concerned with the fact that you are trying to base your vote on Kosa on his limited meta. Even more so with the fact that you haven't played a whole lot of games with him. You don't know what his scum game looks like, but yet you claim to be voting him based on what you think his scum game will look like.
I'm literally staring at those posts again and I really still dont understand them at all. I can see your rationale, but it's like you didn't do enough for me to actually believe it.
Like, in TMCT's, you could have said something like "For clarity:" or in 7hawk77's you could have said something like "guardman didn't tell me anything. Everything i know is from the rules".
It just feels all sorts of wrong. I'm trying to wrap my brain around it, but I cannot see enough for me to say those posts come from a town-mindset because I'd have done them differently.
That's fine. You can choose not to believe it. I'm not going to continue to go back and forth about the same posts for pages on end.
You say that I didn't explicitly say that "Guardman didn't tell me." Well, that's all well and good, but the here is what I said:
Nice handwave, but dismissing my other points will not make them disappear.
You don't even -have- any points. Nor does Hawk, or Eron.
I disagree. I believe both of your barns to this point have come off as opportunistic and looking to get in early on wagons to not draw attention to yourself later.
@Cyouni - I don't know if I can answer that. I still don't know which alignment Shark is so if my syntax is switching it has to be a subconcious thing. Right now, for example, I have him as leaning town due to the weak /barn that Arianrhod did.
So you have no reason for completely reversing opinions on Shark within 3 posts/4 hours.
I haven't. I'm not sold on Shark's alignment either way, so I'm not sure how I could have reversed my opinion.
Just to be clear Shark, if your argument is around the fact that I scumslipped about the number of Chimes, and I in fact never stated a number of Chimes, your argument would then be invalid, would it not?
Contrary to the earlier posts of EtR, this smacks of scum mistaking "being right" for "being town".
I'm still rereading, but I'm going to have to finish later. Sorry that I'm not quite caught up.
The reason for was because I didn't want to have the "Your post is bad" picture come off as hurtful. I was just joking around, so I thought the hug would soften the blow.
Regarding the second post, it could be that I'm both right and town. The way I see it, there are two options. Either 1) Shark is scum and he found something that he thought he could call out as a "scum slip" from both myself and TCM that he could use to paint us as scummy. He chose to go after me but then realized that I hadn't ever gave a number for the chimes and he has spent that last several pages arguing semantics to try and keep his vote applied or 2) Shark is town who legitimately thought he found a scum slip, but when pointed out that I hadn't given a number, has kept his tunnel vision turned on and looked for other semantic issues to try continue to support his read of me being scummy.
Either way, Shark's read is wrong.
I'm still V/LA but it's much more LA at this point and I should be back to posting with some regularity.
When I say that townKosa just posts what he thinks, I mean that he doesn't care for how what he writes looks.
This is incorrect. While I obviously don't join games thinking "oh, what behavior should I pick from my wardrobe for this one?", I do try to keep the same posting style throughout each game (normally depending on my role, my involvement in the game, etc), and that requires a good amount of thought refinement/filtering process:
So do you think Rhand was posting that to wiggle out of added pressure, or do you think he's being sincere in his replies?
So do you think Rhand was posting that to wiggle out of added pressure, or do you think he's being sincere in his replies?
I don't know, but I'm inclined to believe the second option is more likely because we've played only two games together (one I was under lots of pressure all the time, and the other I lurked like crazy), so the vision he claims to have on me may be sincere.
Not only that, but Rhand is a good player to be playing this badly as scum. However, I've never seen him play as scum, so... actually I think he has never played as scum at all. Am I correct, Rhand?
Not only that, but Rhand is a good player to be playing this badly as scum. However, I've never seen him play as scum, so... actually I think he has never played as scum at all. Am I correct, Rhand?
He has stated that he hasn't played as scum.
So what your saying is that this does not look like a Rhand played town game? Or he can't be scum because he's playing badly?
I dislike Shark more than EtR at this point.
His scumslip post and the reversing stance he took about you don't add up.
Eron on the other hand is showing his normal town reaction on pressure.
This is from before Shark came out and claimed Governor, so Shark wasn't essentially confirmed town at that point.
I fully recognize that just because he's reading similarly here to me as what he did then does not mean that he's confirmed town here or anything of the like -- I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting, is that there are enough other viable suspects at this point in time without Shark needing to top the pile. I have Shark at leaning town and am awaiting more time to pass / more content to be generated before adjusting that read.
...
So yeah. I'm not saying that by providing meta of town!Shark playing somewhat erratic that therefore Shark=town...at all. But if attacking people that I have as leaning town is the play, then let's go after someone who isn't contributing to the game anyway -- they are guiltier by definition. Scum win in silence.
So what about this game makes you think my play here matches it? The majority of my posts that you referenced are short posts of me trying to gambit a governor claim.
@EtR's most recent post: Eh, I still don't think it was clear enough for me, but your responses lately are at least giving me enough pause to stop pressuring you for now. You move up to null reading on my T/S.
Time to work on others now.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I'm seeing this whole KK/Arianrhod back and forth as town against town. I'm not interested in lycning either of them at this point.
I see you're voting Shark. Why does your vote feel highly unenthusiastic?
Unenthusiatic I can understand since I have not gone into detail about Shark, yet. I have been watching his posts becasue his posting have been... erratic. I'm not sure if erratic is the right term to use here... Either way, I've been suspicious of Shark and that is why my vote has stayed on him.
Can you quote some portions of SHark's posts that gave you this impression?
I'm seeing this whole KK/Arianrhod back and forth as town against town. I'm not interested in lycning either of them at this point.
I see you're voting Shark. Why does your vote feel highly unenthusiastic?
Unenthusiatic I can understand since I have not gone into detail about Shark, yet. I have been watching his posts becasue his posting have been... erratic. I'm not sure if erratic is the right term to use here... Either way, I've been suspicious of Shark and that is why my vote has stayed on him.
Shark's posting so far has reminded me a great deal of OT2R -- he displayed the same erratic tendencies there (the whole thing about who was actually the governor on D2; and the mindgames that he was playing thereafter specifically).
I know you were NK'd N1 that game, Void, but if you read along after that point anyway, what do you think of that comparison? Would you say that it's a fair one?
PikachuGundam in #72 taught me that someone matching their meta can still be scum. People posting inside their meta is really a null-tell.
So yeah. I'm not saying that by providing meta of town!Shark playing somewhat erratic that therefore Shark=town...at all. But if attacking people that I have as leaning town is the play, then let's go after someone who isn't contributing to the game anyway -- they are guiltier by definition. Scum win in silence.
Silence helps scum, but part of that is because scum can deflect onto lurkers, Do you believe that none of the frequent posters are scum?
As far as my FoS, I like my votes to hold meaning so I would prefer to just leave it where it is with RVS and use FoS instead of just throwing my vote wherever giving strange signals. Currently I think that SS is the most suspicious, why wouldn't he be getting my FoS?
Why are you more worried about the signals you're giving out than voting who you think to be scummy (or "suspicious")?
And why wouldn't you unvote Shark in that case?
These were very good questions from Curious, but I still find it curious that he didn't catch Hawk's posts the first time around.
Didn't you similarly miss posts the first time in Steins;Gate? I think it was you that Cyouni attacked for this exact reason. What is your purpose in questioning rereading?
@Eron -- I've never seen scum!Kosa, so I can't say for sure. If I were to guess, I would imagine him as being more confident (due to the concept of having a team behind you rather than going it solo -- was my experience in Ataghan at first, until we immediately fell apart), as well as more quick to react to pressure (guilty conscience). This is why I thought I had a good lead on him, because that's how I perceived him as reacting.
This is a better answer than I was expecting, however, I'm still concerned with the fact that you are trying to base your vote on Kosa on his limited meta. Even more so with the fact that you haven't played a whole lot of games with him. You don't know what his scum game looks like, but yet you claim to be voting him based on what you think his scum game will look like.
Regarding the second post, it could be that I'm both right and town. The way I see it, there are two options. Either 1) Shark is scum and he found something that he thought he could call out as a "scum slip" from both myself and TCM that he could use to paint us as scummy. He chose to go after me but then realized that I hadn't ever gave a number for the chimes and he has spent that last several pages arguing semantics to try and keep his vote applied or 2) Shark is town who legitimately thought he found a scum slip, but when pointed out that I hadn't given a number, has kept his tunnel vision turned on and looked for other semantic issues to try continue to support his read of me being scummy.
So what your saying is that this does not look like a Rhand played town game? Or he can't be scum because he's playing badly?
Not that he can't be scum, I just find it unlikely.
In Innistrad, as soon as he replaced in as the Town Weak Doctor (I was at L-1 or whatever, being heavily pressured), not only he almost immediately deduced I was town, but also prevented the NK on KCC following my lynch. His actions and analysis helped confirming him, KCC and TMCT as townies as early as Day 3, and IIRC he won Town MVP there.
Unless he's purposefully playing dumb, I can't see scumRhand ending an awful post with a fabricated vote on me. Therefore, I'm inclined to believe he's town, because although his reads on me are wrong, he, unlike Arian, is entitled to believe I'm a transparent player based on my behavior in games we've played together.
Of course, my read on him hinges on the fact I perceive him as a good town player. I don't know how it feels to be scum for the first time, but I feel unlikely his overall quality would drop so abruptly.
So what your saying is that this does not look like a Rhand played town game? Or he can't be scum because he's playing badly?
Not that he can't be scum, I just find it unlikely.
In Innistrad, as soon as he replaced in as the Town Weak Doctor (I was at L-1 or whatever, being heavily pressured), not only he almost immediately deduced I was town, but also prevented the NK on KCC following my lynch. His actions and analysis helped confirming him, KCC and TMCT as townies as early as Day 3, and IIRC he won Town MVP there.
Unless he's purposefully playing dumb, I can't see scumRhand ending an awful post with a fabricated vote on me. Therefore, I'm inclined to believe he's town, because although his reads on me are wrong, he, unlike Arian, is entitled to believe I'm a transparent player based on my behavior in games we've played together.
Of course, my read on him hinges on the fact I perceive him as a good town player. I don't know how it feels to be scum for the first time, but I feel unlikely his overall quality would drop so abruptly.
You have yet to be scum, correct? If so, then you have yet to see it from the otherside. Knowing who is town or not does affect your play. Just knowing that has a dramatic impact on your play. There are a lot of subtilties in how you behave that if you don't come across genuine, you could be under immense pressure by an experienced town player. So trying to not misstep adds pressure and can easily lead to said mistakes, especially if it's your first time.
I am not trying to discredit your read on Rhand, because I feel he does look town thus far (genuine responses under pressure), but it is hard to use meta on a player without a town and a scum game under his belt.
@AthiestGod: Who right now would you sacrifice yourself to protect this game and why?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Have you read any games that KK has been in? I don't have time to read back at the moment to find this answer.
Town doesn't need to consciously try not to look scummy.
No, I haven't. I played with him in Ataghan (I was scum, he was town and randomly screwed the neutral to hilarious effect). I'm also playing with him currently in Survival Horror -- but I haven't been in any other completed games or read any completed games that he's been in.
Gonna go down the list bit-for-bit.
1) Hawk's question was a textbook question. I fail to see how my response was anything other than appropriate.
2) Problems with forum Mafia. I have no way to prove to you adequately that I did in fact misread you. You can either take me at my word, or choose to believe that I was fully aware of what I was doing. I don't see how this can possibly be anything more than a null because of that fact. It's a he said/she said.
3) We've already been over this (slash will likely go into it again by the end).
4) As you point out, my experience thusfar has been Ataghan and a little bit in Survival Horror which has to be thrown out since that game is ongoing. I DID think that you were in Giant Robot, but when I went back and looked for something I realized I was thinking of someone else. I fail to understand how my justification is invalid [more at the end].
5) See end.
6) When I'm pressured, I attempt to explain where I'm coming from in a clearer manner (see what I'm doing right now). For some reason, I only seem to get into the philosophical side of things with you -- but at best you're confirming that I'm still myself with this. This doesn't actually mean anything.
EWP / 7) I take some degree of offense to this. I'm a very earnest person, and I don't lie except when absolutely unavoidable. You may think that my philosophies are "bull," but they are what I actually think and how I actually see things. They are my viewpoint. You may disagree with it, or say that I'm trying to distract/cover something up, or whatever -- but the simple fact is that I'm trying to explain my thought processes to whoever is pushing me.
In fact, I would argue that the slip that we ended up arguing about in Ataghan was probably inevitable to happen (whether or not it would get caught) simply because of the philosophies which I tried to defend myself with.
(@btw: thanks =) I think that the reason I'm more inclined to get into these debates with you is that I feel you're at about the same level in this game as I am, so it fosters a "relative newbies unite" mentality. I'm too intimidated by half the people here to really joke with them like I would want to, for example)
EBWODB / 8) I'm just tired of this cycle. This is something like my 8th game now, and there have been TWO games out of those (including Survival Horror as one of the 8) where I've been okay on Day 1. One of them, I was basically mechanically confirmed immediately because I was a doublevoter (Giant Robot). The other AE basically imploded on d1 and there was never really a chance for anyone to go after me....so I was pushed hard on D2 instead. For whatever reason (OOG note: if judges have any idea why this keeps happening, I would LOVE to hear it postgame), I am constantly pushed on D1, forced to defend myself, defending myself makes more people push me, then I end up having to claim and the game goes on.
I feel somewhat like condescending wonka sitting here. Please, tell me how I shouldn't be tired of this after it's happened 6/8 times.
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So, the "see more" bit. I'm going to back up and try to take this thing slowly, since it seems to be the only thing that you're even hung up on about me.
I have an impression (better word than opinion) of you. I have an impression of most people that I've played with, so this shouldn't be surprising or unorthodox. If I don't have an impression of someone, then that informs my opinion of that person. Misting is a good example here. I've played a full game with Misting before (we were both town in Giant Robot). But he didn't really leave much of an impact in my mind, so my impression of Misting is of someone who doesn't leave much of an impression. By comparison, my impression of Void is that Void is typically much more aggressive when he's town, and that he lurks when he's either unhappy with his role or is a power role.
You can call this meta if you want, but I would argue that it's more "experienced meta," because it's only informed by my personal experiences. This is where Hawk's point comes in -- sure you've had experiences outside of my knowledge. But I'm not talking about your other happenings. I'm not talking about meta-meta. I'm talking about me-meta.
Okay? Still with me? Pretty simple (I think).
Let's apply this directly to you.
Fact: I played with you in one completed game [Ataghan].
Fact: I was scum, which meant I knew you to be town or the neutral. Upon you randomly hitting Xyre as the neutral, I knew you to be town.
Fact: You were actually town and not some second neutral or something.
My impression of you from Ataghan was that you were actually quite similar to me. I've received a number of comments in postgames and from judges in the League that I have a very open, honest posting style (which was accurately prophesied to cause me trouble whenever I ended up getting a scum game. *shakes fist@Zionite*). You could call this transparent. I saw you as posting similarly to me -- this was my impression.
For emphasis...
Impression of Kosa: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
Now, this impression was informed by the fact that I knew you to be town in Ataghan. Ergo, we can revise the impression...
Impression of Kosa as Town: Open/honest/spontaneous/transparent posting style akin to my own.
So, when Rhand noted this game that he saw you as posting differently than you had as town in the past, I decided to look at your posts, and I saw the same thing that Rhand had. Your posting this game didn't agree with the impression that I had of you as town. I decided that it would be appropriate to apply some pressure because of that, and then we ended up here.
That's as clear as I can possibly make my thought processes. You can disagree with my leaps or my conclusions, but that's how I got there, and that's a fact.
Rhand's posts after my lynch really are making me think I have one pegged. His whole vote on Kosa, even after saying he dislike SF seems insincere. I am looking at it by seeing that at this point (in my opinion) Kosa is more likely to draw a wagon than SF is based on my reads of all of you.
Why is being calculated a scum tell? My entire post you called me town for was nothing more than a calculation...
I disagree. If townies posts came off scummy, they can get lynched just as fast a mafia member who came off scummy. It is in the town players best interest to make their thoughts sincere, without coming off murky.
@Rhand: Do you have any finished scum games completed to date?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
...I actually liked this answer a lot. It came out way clearer here than the philosophical approach (which, you can't deny it, was bull in Ataghan, even if you posted it sincerely :p).
Unvote
We need more people in here. Where are RL, Truk, and AG?
What do you mean "after my lynch?"
Kosa wasn't under any fire when I posted my suspicion.
I answered your question and gave my biggest scumread in one post.
I think Eron is probably town, I have a scumlean on shark but not enough to vote him and I think Kosa is most likely scum.
A calculation and being calculated are two different things
I see being calculated as a possible scumtell for Kosa because it's not what I saw him doing as town. TownKosa doesn't think about how his posts look, he just posts what he thinks.
While this is true, there's a subtle difference there. Townies know that what they post does not come from a scummy mindset. They don't need to hide their reasons for posting.
Scum has to hide their intentions and will put more effort in keeping their posts clean.
No, I only have 2 completed town ones, one where I flipped town and one where I am still alive.
What makes you believe that KK is not posting what he thinks?
I'm talking about how he posts, not what he posts.
Are you referring to general town play or to Kosa specifically?
—Lazav
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Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
How strong do you believe Meta to be in determining alignment?
Your losing me here, Rhand, in your latest response to me.
Please explain the difference in "how" and "what".
When the game progresses and bodies start to drop, analyzing behaviour trumps Meta.
I have a scumread on Kosa because of how he is watching his language and is thinking about how we will read what he writes. I am not talking about the content of his posts.
When I say that townKosa just posts what he thinks, I mean that he doesn't care for how what he writes looks.
I wished I could explain this in Dutch :/
I really liked your interactions with Kosa and defending your Rhand barn. Could you please explain what your thought process was when you barned shark earlier? I'm trying to see how that could be a town mindset but I'm just not seeing it.
Outdated Mafia Stats
I kind of see where you are going with what you are saying. Sorry for so many questions. I wasn't sure how to ask it so that I could a better understanding of you meant.
Language barriers are troublesome at times.
I'll either get used to not being understanded every time or I'll get better at English
I dislike this post.
The second sentence is a good question, but then in the third sentence he shows the need to give a reason to ask that question.
It reads as if he knows arian is town and makes up excuses to push him.
The first sentence further sweetens the cake, giving him an out for when arian flips town.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Expand more on why that makes you waffle.
Just saying that's logical proofs, not Bayes theorem.
p -> q != q -> p
I see you're voting Shark. Why does your vote feel highly unenthusiastic?
You say one thing about him, and that's never responded to. Why do you never pursue that further?
Explain the rationale behind that last phrase further.
This is incorrect. While I obviously don't join games thinking "oh, what behavior should I pick from my wardrobe for this one?", I do try to keep the same posting style throughout each game (normally depending on my role, my involvement in the game, etc), and that requires a good amount of thought refinement/filtering process:
The ones unreferenced are Innistrad, Vanilla and Steins;Gate, respectively. I didn't name them because they were still ongoing at that time.
In here, as you can see, I'm pending more towards meta usage, and not only this is an approach I haven't tried before, but it also needs decent memory and fair interpretation of past events so good, meaningful reads can be achieved.
@GMod: Dem prods?
It is a logical proof, however I still disproved the argument using Bayes theorem. The probability of A given B is not equal to the probability of B given A, this is derived from Bayes theorem. The reason why I believe that it is good rational practice to use Bayes theorem is because it expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.
As far as my last phrase, I felt that Arian was town with his argument with Kosa but I still don't understand why town Arian would barn Shark in the beginning. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because I don't want to mislynch a townie with so many lurkers.
The way that I look at it, he had two motivations. The only town motivation I can see is trying to add pressure to EtR. This doesn't exactly make sense to me because Shark called out both EtR and TCM for the same thing but chose EtR. If Arian wanted to add pressure, wouldn't it have been better to vote for TCM?
The scum motivation is obvious, barn shark and get a quick lynch which is why I didn't like the fact that he had back to back barns.
Also I second the prods.
Outdated Mafia Stats
What you're missing, though, is that I liked TCM's post, whereas I felt that Eron's was a "hang-on," if you will. TCM was scum in OT2R (also a League game), and his style of posting / the points he was making there were quite different than what I've seen from TCM thusfar. So, until such time as I see something that I don't like from TCM, I'm going to have him in my leaning town pile.
Eron read as though he was essentially latching on to TCM's post, and making the same point as TCM was - but worse. This seemed to me to be sufficient reason for added pressure on Eron.
Thirded on prods. I feel like 1/3 of the game is actually playing. Day 1 is always miserable enough as it is =/
I like the fact that this response was quick and has an honest feel.
Ironically I felt you were latching on to Shark's post without adding anything to it.
Unvote
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Unenthusiatic I can understand since I have not gone into detail about Shark, yet. I have been watching his posts becasue his posting have been... erratic. I'm not sure if erratic is the right term to use here... Either way, I've been suspicious of Shark and that is why my vote has stayed on him.
Shark's posting so far has reminded me a great deal of OT2R -- he displayed the same erratic tendencies there (the whole thing about who was actually the governor on D2; and the mindgames that he was playing thereafter specifically).
I know you were NK'd N1 that game, Void, but if you read along after that point anyway, what do you think of that comparison? Would you say that it's a fair one?
I don't remember OTR2 to well since I only skimmed the game after my death.
Just because you say Shark is exhibting a similar posting style in this game compared to OTR2 does not mean that Shark will be the same alignment in this game. This is why I questioned Rhand about his Meta read on KK. Meta reads can be useful, but on there own they don't mean much.
Since you are bringing OTR2 into this read on Shark, would you please show some comparison from OTR2 that shows Shark is posting similary to this game here.
@Arianrod: When you do this, I don't know if much could be used from D2, since I was playing as confirmed town (and essentially was), so you do need to provide solid reasoning if you do reference D2.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Do you agree with EtR's logic in his responses for making each post to TMCT and 7hawk77? Do you believe that his reasoning is valid and can be clearly seen from those posts?
/barn the question.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=482287&page=11
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=482287&page=12
This is from before Shark came out and claimed Governor, so Shark wasn't essentially confirmed town at that point.
I fully recognize that just because he's reading similarly here to me as what he did then does not mean that he's confirmed town here or anything of the like -- I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting, is that there are enough other viable suspects at this point in time without Shark needing to top the pile. I have Shark at leaning town and am awaiting more time to pass / more content to be generated before adjusting that read.
I find it very interesting in particular that only Raging_Levine and Truk were prodded -- especially when one goes back and looks at the player list.
SharkFinnigan (L)
EtR (L)
Cyouni (L)
Rhand (L)
Arianrhod (L)
The Cold Monarch (L)
kosakosa (L)
Cantripmancer (L)
Void (L)
Raging Levine (L)
Archmage Eternal (L)
7hawk77 (L)
AtheistGod
The Most Curious Thing (L)
Truk
Misting (L)
Eron's been quiet for a few days. So has TCM. So has Cantrip. So has AE. So has AGod. So has TMCT. So has Misting.
Yet none of these players have been prodded. So, per my understanding of how prods work, these players are all active-lurking (I understand prods as being based on when the prodded player was last active on Salvation).
So yeah. I'm not saying that by providing meta of town!Shark playing somewhat erratic that therefore Shark=town...at all. But if attacking people that I have as leaning town is the play, then let's go after someone who isn't contributing to the game anyway -- they are guiltier by definition. Scum win in silence.
Ah, fair enough. Thanks, Guardman -- I've always kind of wondered but figured it was too stupid of a question to actually ask!
Confirm for 99.9% of all hosts ever on MTGS (read: I've never heard anyone base prods on the method Arian describes).
I do. Specifically towards his last post to TMCT, he seems to be justifying why his response towards the number of chimes is valid. I say this because his post hurt my head, and makes me think that the discussion is nothing more than splitting hairs over why he slipped or didn't. The only thing I disliked from him was playing the whole "why me, and not TCM", primarily because I remember reading that trying to redirect like that can be considered a scum tell, but it this particular event, I thought the same thing so I can't really hold that against him.
I just posted yesterday and work a pair of jobs. Keep in mind that there is still a a few people who have yet to make a real post, and a few others who have not posted much. As much as I want to try and more forward with Rhand, I want to see what RL thinks, I want to see how AE is coming along with his read, I want to continue seeing if anything changes in the whole EtR v. SF thing goes. And with mild curiosity, I am keeping an eye on KK.
My posting style starts out slow in the early game, and picks up. I excel at the dead body analysis part of the game.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Hey Misting, answer my questions when you get back.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Dislike this tactic.
@EtR: What was the intent behind the in 88?
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of Hawk "defending Eron".
These were very good questions from Curious, but I still find it curious that he didn't catch Hawk's posts the first time around.
I know Cyouni touched on this, but I wanted to be more specific: Why do you feel this is exclusive to town!Void; have you checked to see if he posts this line in his scum games?
@Cyouni: Re: 126: It was half-joking, half-serious comment on how utterly he fooled me in Steins;Gate. The only times I considered him scum even a little were in self-dialogue moments of "Unless Curious has fooled me completely..."
How is this different from the mindset of a town player?
What reads was this in reference to?
Why did you group these two together, then proceed to cite all the reasons you think Cyouni is town?
@Curious: From 132: I made the mistake of joining the spectator chat when I died in Steins;Gate, and it included the setup, which caused me to lose interest in keeping up with the game. I mostly skimmed D4. Why?
"Normal town reaction" as meta'd from ???
Contrary to the earlier posts of EtR, this smacks of scum mistaking "being right" for "being town".
I'm still rereading, but I'm going to have to finish later. Sorry that I'm not quite caught up.
This is a better answer than I was expecting, however, I'm still concerned with the fact that you are trying to base your vote on Kosa on his limited meta. Even more so with the fact that you haven't played a whole lot of games with him. You don't know what his scum game looks like, but yet you claim to be voting him based on what you think his scum game will look like.
That's fine. You can choose not to believe it. I'm not going to continue to go back and forth about the same posts for pages on end.
You say that I didn't explicitly say that "Guardman didn't tell me." Well, that's all well and good, but the here is what I said:
How is that not clear that Guardman didn't tell me?
I'm not going to continue to argue semantics with you.
I disagree. I believe both of your barns to this point have come off as opportunistic and looking to get in early on wagons to not draw attention to yourself later.
I haven't. I'm not sold on Shark's alignment either way, so I'm not sure how I could have reversed my opinion.
The reason for was because I didn't want to have the "Your post is bad" picture come off as hurtful. I was just joking around, so I thought the hug would soften the blow.
Regarding the second post, it could be that I'm both right and town. The way I see it, there are two options. Either 1) Shark is scum and he found something that he thought he could call out as a "scum slip" from both myself and TCM that he could use to paint us as scummy. He chose to go after me but then realized that I hadn't ever gave a number for the chimes and he has spent that last several pages arguing semantics to try and keep his vote applied or 2) Shark is town who legitimately thought he found a scum slip, but when pointed out that I hadn't given a number, has kept his tunnel vision turned on and looked for other semantic issues to try continue to support his read of me being scummy.
Either way, Shark's read is wrong.
I'm still V/LA but it's much more LA at this point and I should be back to posting with some regularity.
So do you think Rhand was posting that to wiggle out of added pressure, or do you think he's being sincere in his replies?
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I don't know, but I'm inclined to believe the second option is more likely because we've played only two games together (one I was under lots of pressure all the time, and the other I lurked like crazy), so the vision he claims to have on me may be sincere.
Not only that, but Rhand is a good player to be playing this badly as scum. However, I've never seen him play as scum, so... actually I think he has never played as scum at all. Am I correct, Rhand?
He has stated that he hasn't played as scum.
So what your saying is that this does not look like a Rhand played town game? Or he can't be scum because he's playing badly?
They hate us cause they ain't us.
GIP, but he flipped town
So what about this game makes you think my play here matches it? The majority of my posts that you referenced are short posts of me trying to gambit a governor claim.
@EtR's most recent post: Eh, I still don't think it was clear enough for me, but your responses lately are at least giving me enough pause to stop pressuring you for now. You move up to null reading on my T/S.
Time to work on others now.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Can you quote some portions of SHark's posts that gave you this impression?
PikachuGundam in #72 taught me that someone matching their meta can still be scum. People posting inside their meta is really a null-tell.
Silence helps scum, but part of that is because scum can deflect onto lurkers, Do you believe that none of the frequent posters are scum?
Didn't you similarly miss posts the first time in Steins;Gate? I think it was you that Cyouni attacked for this exact reason. What is your purpose in questioning rereading?
I like this response.
Why use this wording?
Not that he can't be scum, I just find it unlikely.
In Innistrad, as soon as he replaced in as the Town Weak Doctor (I was at L-1 or whatever, being heavily pressured), not only he almost immediately deduced I was town, but also prevented the NK on KCC following my lynch. His actions and analysis helped confirming him, KCC and TMCT as townies as early as Day 3, and IIRC he won Town MVP there.
Unless he's purposefully playing dumb, I can't see scumRhand ending an awful post with a fabricated vote on me. Therefore, I'm inclined to believe he's town, because although his reads on me are wrong, he, unlike Arian, is entitled to believe I'm a transparent player based on my behavior in games we've played together.
Of course, my read on him hinges on the fact I perceive him as a good town player. I don't know how it feels to be scum for the first time, but I feel unlikely his overall quality would drop so abruptly.
You have yet to be scum, correct? If so, then you have yet to see it from the otherside. Knowing who is town or not does affect your play. Just knowing that has a dramatic impact on your play. There are a lot of subtilties in how you behave that if you don't come across genuine, you could be under immense pressure by an experienced town player. So trying to not misstep adds pressure and can easily lead to said mistakes, especially if it's your first time.
I am not trying to discredit your read on Rhand, because I feel he does look town thus far (genuine responses under pressure), but it is hard to use meta on a player without a town and a scum game under his belt.
@AthiestGod: Who right now would you sacrifice yourself to protect this game and why?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
The only person I feel confidant about is TCM. I'm not certain I would sacrifice myself to protect him right now, though.