He is roughly saying that you claiming your role in this manner is more likely a behavior of scum than a behavior of town. The numbers don't mean much because they are only his guesses.
Hmm, last time I checked, 41.6% chance is still under 50%, so I think he's saying less likely scum than town.
I believe that Guardman likely had to announce. I don't know that it makes him any more or less likely to be town or scum.
I had not heard of Steins;Gate prior to this game, so I sense that there are a lot of flavor references, but I'm not getting them.
Also, I refuse to be denied my first RVS in over a year and a half.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
Actually I am using Eliezer Yudkowsky's applied bayesion theory on rational thinking.
I understand that you think the motive is weak, I can weigh it less so lets just agree that his scummy probability is less than 40%
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
Actually I am using Eliezer Yudkowsky's applied bayesion theory on rational thinking.
I understand that you think the motive is weak, I can weigh it less so lets just agree that his scummy probability is less than 40%
Well I have a vig shot and if you don't drop this lynch based on math load of bologna then I will use it on you so how about that?
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He is roughly saying that you claiming your role in this manner is more likely a behavior of scum than a behavior of town. The numbers don't mean much because they are only his guesses.
Hmm, last time I checked, 41.6% chance is still under 50%, so I think he's saying less likely scum than town.
You both are correct. He is acting scummier than town. The average town is at 25%. I proposed that he is higher. HOWEVER he is still less likely to be scum than town.
Well I have a vig shot and if you don't drop this lynch based on math load of bologna then I will use it on you so how about that?
I never actually voted for him. I just wanted to have a rational discussion of why he would lead with the role call. I'm very glad he did because now I have a lot more information to go off of.
Why did I do this? Because I didn't want a quick lynch. I want a discussion to find more information. The threat is cute though <3
You can try and be dismissive and call me cute all you'd like homie, it doesn't change anything other than show that you need to show a false bravado in order to appear competent/valid/threatening/etc. You are a puffer fish, and a dirty one to boot.
Wtf does you not casting a vote have to do with anything for that matter? Surely your math work was for alignment deducing purposes was it not? Surely it wasn't entirely analytic.
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@DV: Considering it was my first post. It's me still being in RVS. But seeing as everyone has already escalated the thread into serious business. Unvote Iso.
I'm also not quite sure what to think of all the math business or the need to claim VT or become a Miller. Hence, I am confused.
And to get this out of the way now, this is my 4th game. Don't have high expectations for my game play.
@DV: Considering it was my first post. It's me still being in RVS. But seeing as everyone has already escalated the thread into serious business. Unvote Iso.
I'm also not quite sure what to think of all the math business or the need to claim VT or become a Miller. Hence, I am confused.
And to get this out of the way now, this is my 4th game. Don't have high expectations for my game play.
Its his role its explained in the thread. It was explained before you posted that. He explained it might change later in the game the next day. What is there to be confused about?
You still haven't addressed what you think about the role.
I'm confused because I've never heard of a role like that before, so I'm not sure how it would work or if it's even a real role that can happen and all the math didn't make a whole lot of sense since I'm no mathematician. And you didn't ask me what I thought about the role, so why would I 'still' not have addressed it?
And now for gaming the mod! I've come up with a list of only a possible 10 roles for this series... so I wonder what the other 2 will be...
Guardman's claim is null to me right now. Though if it is a scum gambit, he'll run the risk of painting himself into a corner on later Days (i.e., if he does have a different choice to make each Day, the gambit will become progressively harder to run and more obvious to us).
Actually I am using Eliezer Yudkowsky's applied bayesion theory on rational thinking.
I understand that you think the motive is weak, I can weigh it less so lets just agree that his scummy probability is less than 40%
1st paragraph: "I used Mathematical Method X to arrive at my answer"
2nd paragraph: "eh, let's just say it's less than 40%"
That's an inconsistent mindset. But even aside from that, what was the point of presenting that analysis to the game in the first place? Do you think we should lynch Guardman on it? Not lynch him? And I know you have an answer to that, because you said this to kpaca:
Guardman role sounds like it'd fit Kiryuu Moeka the most or maybe even Mr. Brown. It's also possible to be one of the 2 mystery roles...
Simple google search finds a wiki that says there are 8 main characters, 6 side characters, and some minor characters.
steins-gate.wikia.com/wiki/Character_List
I'm confused because I've never heard of a role like that before, so I'm not sure how it would work or if it's even a real role that can happen and all the math didn't make a whole lot of sense since I'm no mathematician. And you didn't ask me what I thought about the role, so why would I 'still' not have addressed it?
And now for gaming the mod! I've come up with a list of only a possible 10 roles for this series... so I wonder what the other 2 will be...
Rational investigation of Guardman. These are my assumptions and conclusions.
He currently has a 3/4s liklihood at random that he is town.
Possibilities:
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but does in the future.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy, he is killed at night by scum to deter him getting a power role later or neither and obtains his power role.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but will in later rounds.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he obtains his power role which gives the scum more power.
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role so he doesn't get lynched.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he gets killed at night or he survives.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched or survives.
He has no reason to claim this if he was lying about the power role and is town. If he gets the miller role and gets inspected by a cop, he will come up guilty furthering scummyness. So why come forward at all? Wouldn't it bet better to keep quiet and get one at random? Without talking he would draw less hate and be less likely to get lynched, night killed or investigated.
Based on these assumptions, I would like to use Bayes theorem to calculate the likelihood of scum.
So first off P(A)= Probability of being scum = 1/4
P(B) = Probability of claiming roll and acting weird = 100%, you did it
P(B|A) = Probability of role claiming given that he is scum = 2/3 (Assuming there is no reason to fabricate this lie as a town and given each posibility equal weight)
p(A') = Probability of being town = 3/4
So whats the probability of him being scum given that he role claimed p(A|B) = [P(B|A)*P(A)]/[P(B|A)*P(A)+P(B|A')*P(A')]
Probability that this man is scum given his role call (based on my assumptions) is 10 out of 24 which is about 41.6% which is much higher than the base random 25%.
So what's your conclusion based on behaviour analysis, disregarding logical probability?
He is roughly saying that you claiming your role in this manner is more likely a behavior of scum than a behavior of town. The numbers don't mean much because they are only his guesses.
Hmm, last time I checked, 41.6% chance is still under 50%, so I think he's saying less likely scum than town.
You both are correct. He is acting scummier than town. The average town is at 25%. I proposed that he is higher. HOWEVER he is still less likely to be scum than town.
Gaming the mod because I thought it'd be fun. I'm just curious as to the other characters that WG chose to include and what anyone else might think about that. The point of playing mafia is to have fun, right?
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
How so?
I was talking specifically about the second motive he listed, that "if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum." If Guardman's claim is true, he's not a miller now because he claimed vanilla, and he won't be a miller in the future (by Guardman's inference) because he'll have different choices to make then. In that scenario, if Guardman investigated as scum to the cop, he wouldn't be able to use the miller defense.
As for Guardman wanting "the town to value him as a power role"...it's possible. That's why I think the claim is overall null right now.
Rising from his seat, kpaca lifts aloft Future Gadget #1, "Bit Particle Cannon". He aims it at the head of AtheistGod, who raises his hands, fearful of kpaca's intent.
"God help you if you were down."
kpaca pulls the trigger.
The TV channel changes to the weather. Everyone releases their breath almost at once, most only having just realized they were holding it to begin with. AtheistGod laughs nervously. kpaca puts Future Gadget #1 back down again.
When everyone looks back up again, the TV has changed back to Alpacaman already.
I never actually voted for him. I just wanted to have a rational discussion of why he would lead with the role call. I'm very glad he did because now I have a lot more information to go off of.
Why did I do this? Because I didn't want a quick lynch. I want a discussion to find more information. The threat is cute though <3
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Why does that seem off to you? Assuming Guardman's role is 'you are one of these two roles that you claim or I will choose randomly for you', how would you have gone about it differently?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Gaming the mod because I thought it'd be fun. I'm just curious as to the other characters that WG chose to include and what anyone else might think about that. The point of playing mafia is to have fun, right?
I swear this is just a scum that doesn't know how to post during day chat and stalling.
Gaming the mod because I thought it'd be fun. I'm just curious as to the other characters that WG chose to include and what anyone else might think about that. The point of playing mafia is to have fun, right?
I swear this is just a scum that doesn't know how to post during day chat and stalling.
And I'll be happy to laugh in your face later, when I flip town.
Also, if AG claimed godfather in that gibberish number post of his, shouldn't we be lynching him?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Why does that seem off to you? Assuming Guardman's role is 'you are one of these two roles that you claim or I will choose randomly for you', how would you have gone about it differently?
I would have posted with more certainty and not taken quite as many posts to say what I meant.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The whole reason I claimed like I did was I was debating how much information I should give, as I didn't want to give too much. But once I saw the confusion it was causing I decided it would be better to just claim all of it rather than let everyone get bogged down trying to discuss it or worse try to figure it out via math... though I think I failed on that last part.
Hmm, last time I checked, 41.6% chance is still under 50%, so I think he's saying less likely scum than town.
I believe that Guardman likely had to announce. I don't know that it makes him any more or less likely to be town or scum.
I had not heard of Steins;Gate prior to this game, so I sense that there are a lot of flavor references, but I'm not getting them.
Also, I refuse to be denied my first RVS in over a year and a half.
Vote: Kpaca, for old time's sake.
Do you mean you don't find out, or you don't know whether or not you find out?
@7hawk77
If Thomas Bayes played Mafia he's spinning in his grave right now
What's your actual conclusion apart from an assumption-laden "41.6%"?
Guardman claimed vanilla Today and inferred that he'd have a different choice than vanilla/miller on later Days. That motive makes zero sense.
@AtheistGod
What do you think about the claim?
But I will still Vote Iso on principle.
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Vote 7hawk77 for not making sense.
Do you mean you don't find out, or you don't know whether or not you find out?
[/QUOTE]
I don't know whether or not I find out.
Did Iso seriously just get to L-3 during RVS? Is that a record even for you?
Actually I am using Eliezer Yudkowsky's applied bayesion theory on rational thinking.
I understand that you think the motive is weak, I can weigh it less so lets just agree that his scummy probability is less than 40%
Outdated Mafia Stats
unvote, vote 77777hawk
Ill still probably shoot you but Id rather lynch you and save the shot.
You both are correct. He is acting scummier than town. The average town is at 25%. I proposed that he is higher. HOWEVER he is still less likely to be scum than town.
I never actually voted for him. I just wanted to have a rational discussion of why he would lead with the role call. I'm very glad he did because now I have a lot more information to go off of.
Why did I do this? Because I didn't want a quick lynch. I want a discussion to find more information. The threat is cute though <3
Outdated Mafia Stats
Wtf does you not casting a vote have to do with anything for that matter? Surely your math work was for alignment deducing purposes was it not? Surely it wasn't entirely analytic.
Chance kpaca actually has a vig shot: 50%.
True Dat.
Den bad stuffz happenz Duhzzz.
Yeah.... I'm with Kpaca on this ~ish~. Its a sweet role if its real. But...
Feels like trying to avoid lynching a scum buddy. Or not wanting to take part of lynching a town... Either way reads scum.
Aww I've missed you kpain.
Which ones? Newton? Archimedes? Euclid? How exactly does one go about validating oneself with math guys?
/barn
I'm also not quite sure what to think of all the math business or the need to claim VT or become a Miller. Hence, I am confused.
And to get this out of the way now, this is my 4th game. Don't have high expectations for my game play.
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Its his role its explained in the thread. It was explained before you posted that. He explained it might change later in the game the next day. What is there to be confused about?
You still haven't addressed what you think about the role.
Vote pikachugundam
And now for gaming the mod! I've come up with a list of only a possible 10 roles for this series... so I wonder what the other 2 will be...
Okabe Rintarou (aka Hyououin Kyouma)
Makise Kurisu
Shiina Mayuri
Hashida 'Daru' Itaru
Kiryuu Moeka
Amane Suzuha
Feyris Nyannyan
Urushibara Rukako
'Mr. Brown'
Mr. Brown's daughter (Nae)
Guardman role sounds like it'd fit Kiryuu Moeka the most or maybe even Mr. Brown. It's also possible to be one of the 2 mystery roles...
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"Why in Odin's name would you want to eat a warm banana?"
Iso (2) - Kosakosa, AtheistGod
7hawk77 (2) - kpaca, Zenjo
Guardman (2) - Iso, Cyouni
kpaca (1) - Cantripmancer
pikachugundam (1) - Deaths_Vampire
AtheistGod (1) - 7hawk77
Not Voting (3) - The Most Curious Thing, pikachugundam, Guardman
With 12 alive it is 7 to lynch!
If the votecount is incorrect, let me know.
Okay.
Guardman's claim is null to me right now. Though if it is a scum gambit, he'll run the risk of painting himself into a corner on later Days (i.e., if he does have a different choice to make each Day, the gambit will become progressively harder to run and more obvious to us).
1st paragraph: "I used Mathematical Method X to arrive at my answer"
2nd paragraph: "eh, let's just say it's less than 40%"
That's an inconsistent mindset. But even aside from that, what was the point of presenting that analysis to the game in the first place? Do you think we should lynch Guardman on it? Not lynch him? And I know you have an answer to that, because you said this to kpaca:
This is the second kpaca vig shot line you've had that's made me
Translation:
Because you've already made a non-RVS post I'm not sure this isn't a really crappy PR
Not to mention that Wheat actually counted that vote....
Either way, answer my question please?
Why?
Simple google search finds a wiki that says there are 8 main characters, 6 side characters, and some minor characters.
steins-gate.wikia.com/wiki/Character_List
Gaming the mod is a huge waste of time.
So what's your conclusion based on behaviour analysis, disregarding logical probability?
How so?
What's the benefit in gaming the mod?
As an aside, it's Mr. Braun.
How so?
Why out all of it now?
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The role sees plausible, Guardman's method of claiming it seems off.
Explain that numbers post now.
What is your specific question? It seems fairly self-explanatory to me.
daykill atheist god
God help you if you were down.
I was talking specifically about the second motive he listed, that "if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum." If Guardman's claim is true, he's not a miller now because he claimed vanilla, and he won't be a miller in the future (by Guardman's inference) because he'll have different choices to make then. In that scenario, if Guardman investigated as scum to the cop, he wouldn't be able to use the miller defense.
As for Guardman wanting "the town to value him as a power role"...it's possible. That's why I think the claim is overall null right now.
@AtheistGod
No comment on the hex post? Really?
"I've seen enough."
Rising from his seat, kpaca lifts aloft Future Gadget #1, "Bit Particle Cannon". He aims it at the head of AtheistGod, who raises his hands, fearful of kpaca's intent.
"God help you if you were down."
kpaca pulls the trigger.
The TV channel changes to the weather. Everyone releases their breath almost at once, most only having just realized they were holding it to begin with. AtheistGod laughs nervously. kpaca puts Future Gadget #1 back down again.
When everyone looks back up again, the TV has changed back to Alpacaman already.
No, I've gotten to L-2 in RVS before.
FWIW I believe Guardman. Which I suppose by extension makes him town because ":na: Miller scum".
I think this guy is scum.
Vote hawk
Can you only vote using a Post Restriction? How does Guardman's method seem off?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Mostly the way he trickled the information and then this post:
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I swear this is just a scum that doesn't know how to post during day chat and stalling.
And I'll be happy to laugh in your face later, when I flip town.
Also, if AG claimed godfather in that gibberish number post of his, shouldn't we be lynching him?
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{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I would have posted with more certainty and not taken quite as many posts to say what I meant.
Unvote
Vote AtheistGod
Oh, hi there. Explain exactly why you want an answer and why that is a reason for voting.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Why do you want an answer?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Are you allowed to explain the hex post? If so I don't know why you can't see why we want an explanation.
@D_V
What are you getting at with pikachu?
The continuous refusal to answer the "Did you just pseudo-cryptoclaim Godfather?" question is a pretty good reason to vote you IMHO
"I think it would be better if we just left the Phonewave alone."
AtheistGod (3) - 7hawk77, Kosakosa, Iso
7hawk77 (2) - Zenjo, kpaca
Guardman (1) - Cyouni
Iso (1) - AtheistGod
kpaca (1) - Cantripmancer
pikachugundam (1) - Deaths_Vampire
Not Voting (3) - Guardman, The Most Curious Thing, pikachugundam
With 12 alive, it is 7 to lynch!
As always, let me know of mistakes.
Maybe your definition of "good" differs from mine. You also didn't answer the question.