(Also, if Shark is not the Govener, and someone is fakeclaiming vanilla for some unfathomably stupid reason, then disregard most of my previous post. Well. No, it still holds true, just the names are shuffled).
If someone is fakeclaiming vanilla as the actual governor, by the way, it's in our best interests for them to speak up, and fast, so that we don't operate under false premises.
~Preview Edit~ Shark, are you officially saying that you are not the governor? Because for that to be the case, the real governor would have had to claim not to be it. Which is kind of annoying, and serve no purpose.
Aside from that, there's also these posts. I think Vox reacted badly to Shark's gambit.
There wasn't any critical need for the governor to step forward immediately, if you think it through. Staying under cover had a good chance of gathering extra reactions from the town, and could trip the scum into attacking a cleared townie and tipping their hands.
I suspect that the reason Vox was getting so antsy about the governor not stepping forward and claiming was that the was afraid of walking into that kind of ambush. With the governor hidden, any move the scum made to home in on another target had a severe chance of backfiring on them, and it looks like that possibility may have gotten under his skin a little bit. ("Unfathomably stupid", "Annoying").
Do you think it's plausible for TCM and Silver to be mafia together, based on their interactions? It's possible of course, but in terms of likelihood where would you put it?
This question has a purpose, I promise!
(Will have a more in depth post in the morning, just got home from an 18 hour work day, and this was something that was on my mind).
I will admit right now, I totally believe you to be town Voxx. Too many subtleties in your play scream town so if you aren't, congrats, you got me.
Now to your question, I plan to speak more in twilight, but I believe that one of the other 3 players (including Az) is surprisingly town and one that is most obviously scum.
It is not out of the question that TCM and Silver could be scum, but there may be another combo that is stronger.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Nothing about any of these exchanges toDay makes sense to me. I don't see how you can think Voxx is town. If you want to say Azrael is scum, then okay fine -- maybe he's next-leveling me and just outplaying my reading capabilities. But I can't see how Voxx could possibly be town.
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Nothing about any of these exchanges toDay makes sense to me. I don't see how you can think Voxx is town. If you want to say Azrael is scum, then okay fine -- maybe he's next-leveling me and just outplaying my reading capabilities. But I can't see how Voxx could possibly be town.
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Explain Az's interactions with you early game?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Nothing about any of these exchanges toDay makes sense to me. I don't see how you can think Voxx is town. If you want to say Azrael is scum, then okay fine -- maybe he's next-leveling me and just outplaying my reading capabilities. But I can't see how Voxx could possibly be town.
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Explain Az's interactions with you early game?
He asked me questions and I answered? How is this a confusing subject? If someone asks me a question, I answer it =/
Nothing about any of these exchanges toDay makes sense to me. I don't see how you can think Voxx is town. If you want to say Azrael is scum, then okay fine -- maybe he's next-leveling me and just outplaying my reading capabilities. But I can't see how Voxx could possibly be town.
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Explain Az's interactions with you early game?
He asked me questions and I answered? How is this a confusing subject? If someone asks me a question, I answer it =/
It either bleeds of scumbuddy interaction or buddying for later on in the game (and given what I've seen, I am pretty sure either are strong possibilities).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Nothing about any of these exchanges toDay makes sense to me. I don't see how you can think Voxx is town. If you want to say Azrael is scum, then okay fine -- maybe he's next-leveling me and just outplaying my reading capabilities. But I can't see how Voxx could possibly be town.
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Explain Az's interactions with you early game?
He asked me questions and I answered? How is this a confusing subject? If someone asks me a question, I answer it =/
It either bleeds of scumbuddy interaction or buddying for later on in the game (and given what I've seen, I am pretty sure either are strong possibilities).
I'll fully admit that I WANT Azrael to be town. He's the guy who got me into the game as a whole, so I'm favorably inclined towards him on a personal level.
What do you mean, "given what you've seen," by the way? A fairly short time ago, you had me as strongly town. Has that changed? If so, why?
I'm trying to hold my reads to my chest atm. I'll let you know post lynch. I don't have any players as strong town atm. Voxx may be the most town, but I keep flippin floppin on everyone. Atm, Az is the best choice for lynch
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I'm trying to hold my reads to my chest atm. I'll let you know post lynch. I don't have any players as strong town atm. Voxx may be the most town, but I keep flippin floppin on everyone. Atm, Az is the best choice for lynch
Fair. I'll agree to disagree. As I said, I've made my cases, and if I've failed to get across my viewpoint / if my viewpoint isn't persuasive enough compared to yours, then that's fine, and I'll happily accept advice on what I could have done better post-game.
I'm trying to hold my reads to my chest atm. I'll let you know post lynch. I don't have any players as strong town atm. Voxx may be the most town, but I keep flippin floppin on everyone. Atm, Az is the best choice for lynch
This is an awkward situation for me to be trying to give you advice, but I don't understand why in a lynch or lose situation anything could be gained by not talking over your reads with the rest of the players before the lynch goes final. Especially if you're not certain of your reads, and the game hinges on getting the next lynch right.
Maybe this is just a gambit. But if it's not, it seems like a classic case of a single player not taking advantage of the fact that they have teammates on their side to talk things over with.
I don't see how you're getting a Vox-town read. I certainly don't understand how you're getting a scum-read on me. The only thing I can think of is that at the start of the game you mentioned that you tend to want to kill more experienced players because you're afraid you won't be able read them correctly. And if that's all this is - I'm being lynched because I'm more experienced, or maybe you just don't understand certain aspects of my play like my interactions with Silver- these seem like the kind of mistakes that ought to be really simple to talk over and prevent.
If you want to talk it over, we're here. If you decide to go all lone-ranger vigilante on us and don't even give us the benefit of knowing what you're thinking, then I guess there's nothing we can do to help prevent this.
This line of play is just really tough for me to understand. If we wind up flushing this game down the toilet without even knowing the reasons why, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated.
Given your opinions, its a 50/50 chae we lynch scum and no one is doing anything really. Yes you all made cases, but no one seems to be tryin to convince the other side here. It bugs me and it basically will come down to who I vote for. You all made cases and there is still time for me to change my vote but unless you are all just going to sit there like ducks in a row, we are stuck here, possibly losing from inactivity as no one seems to want to vote.
I would really like TCM to speak asap
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Given your opinions, its a 50/50 chae we lynch scum and no one is doing anything really. Yes you all made cases, but no one seems to be tryin to convince the other side here. It bugs me and it basically will come down to who I vote for. You all made cases and there is still time for me to change my vote but unless you are all just going to sit there like ducks in a row, we are stuck here, possibly losing from inactivity as no one seems to want to vote.
I would really like TCM to speak asap
I'm not voting solely because I don't want to create the opportunity for a speed-lynch to happen if you go missing for a 24-hour period, and don't have the chance to redirect it, or possibly if another townie gets a little too trigger-happy. I've made it pretty clear that so far, I intend to vote for Vox before the deadline.
I think all of us have been waiting for *you* to weigh in and actually say where you're coming down on this, what cases and evidence are persuasive to you, what isn't, and what you're having trouble figuring out. It's not all just he said, she said, 50-50 shot. Two of the players talking to you are doing their best to tell you the truth, and the other two are full of it, and you and maybe TCM seem to be the last people who haven't truly made up your minds or explained your position on that.
You seem to be having a hard time deciding, so if I were in your shoes, I'd try talking it over with the other players and see if that helps clear anything up. What exactly is confusing you?
I've re-read the thread one last time and while I'm still not 100% certain, I'm willing to dismiss TCM and Silver as being a possible world that we are in. In a vacuum those two are probably scummier than Azrael has been this game, but interactions do not exist in a vacuum - I do not think they are likely to be scum together.
So that makes the scum team either Azrael and Silver, or Azrael and TCM.
There's a common link there, of course, and Azrael is effectively confirmed scum if I discount the possibility of TCM/Silver.
The problem is, I f we lynch Az, Shark gets shot, and it comes down to myself, Silver and TCM the final day - I don't have a strong belief on what I want to do.
I can see both worlds.
I can see Azrael and Silver's interactions as scumbuddy buddying, or as scum buddying with town he thinks he can successfully manipulate.
I'm leaning Azrael/Silver at the moment - so many of Silver's posts just read like he's over-explaining things. Overly defensive, overreacting, whatever you wish to call it - it doesn't feel genuine. It's something that is difficult to articulate and explain, but it doesn't feel town.
There's also the 'Yeah, let's just lynch AE and TCM' dichotomy he was forcing earlier in the game, which would be the two mislynches he needed. Until they decided they thought they could mislynch me easier than TCM after AE flipped town, presumably.
But.
I can't shake the way TCM reacted to AE's lynch.
I still don't like it.
It read like he 100% knew AE's alignment, and was going for town credit by being all OH NO, WHY ARE YOU LYNCHING TOWN at the last moment. There's only one way he could 100% know AE's alignment. If, y'know. He was scum.
But I freely admit that it could just be him able to read AE much better than the rest of us apparently can. But then why didn't he fight the lynch harder /before/ the 'damn I'm sorry bro' **** at the last minute, prior to the flip, even?
It just makes me uneasy, and is the thing keeping me from just setting Az/Silver in stone and betting the game on it.
I want thoughts from Shark on both possible worlds, and what he would do tomorrow.
I know you aren't infallible, even as town - but there's effectively no chance you'll be around tomorrow, and I want more opinions backing up my own thought process that aren't tainted from the indecision I'm feeling after multiple re-reads.
@Azrael - if you're town, then the remaining two mafia are Silver and TCM. If you're town, lynching you or myself loses the game, and you need to lay out a truly compelling argument for the Silver and TCM scum world.
I don't think you are town. But in the unlikely event that you are, you're barking up the wrong tree, and need to reevaluate now.
If you're scum, well.... I'm sorry. Almost. It has to be frustrating to be pegged as scum for what you feel like are terrible reasons. But it's basic interaction analysis and PoE - you are the only person that fits in the likely worlds.
Alright, lets start with what the scum combinations are to me:
Az +Silver
Az+ Vox
Silver+Vox
I have a special insight that unfortunately, all of you lack: I know that both of the scum were on the AE wagon. I wish I was the Governor, only because the perspective can really help you understand my perspective, and why I am viewing the game like I am.
What that tells me is that despite them being the top two suspects, it would greatly surprise me to believe that Silver would tie himself to tightly to Vox, after starting a wagon on a known townie.
I already stated my opinion on Silver in the matter. I still have to read Vox, but I still think my initial read was correct. His last post towards SF has a very awkward feeling to me as well.
That being said, it seems that Azreal is the only logical choice to be Silver/Vox's scumbuddy, and rather than try to push a 50-50 chance, I would rather go for the sure thing. We have plenty of time before deadline (if we know what we are doing), so SF, any recommendations?
I recommend that within the next 28 hrs, you hammer Az and I'll start giving more than I have. But I have changed my reads slightly but I still think I got the scumteam.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
And TCM lines up with Vox against me and Silver. Color me completely unsurprised.
Quote from Vox »
Alright.
I've re-read the thread one last time and while I'm still not 100% certain, I'm willing to dismiss TCM and Silver as being a possible world that we are in. In a vacuum those two are probably scummier than Azrael has been this game, but interactions do not exist in a vacuum - I do not think they are likely to be scum together.
I do find it a little silly that you've abandoned even the pretense of even making a case against me, personally.
I find it equally silly that you say Silver has been scummier than I have, simply because he's been more thorough and careful in explaining his positions - because he's a good analyst.
Quote from Vox »
I can see Azrael and Silver's interactions as scumbuddy buddying, or as scum buddying with town he thinks he can successfully manipulate.
Your entire case boils down to this: "Az and Silver have been talking together a lot, therefore they must be scum or buddying up".
I feel like it ought to be painfully unnecessary to point out that you're completely assuming, skipping, and glossing over not just any other interpretation of those facts, but any other piece of evidence in the entire game other than what you claim to know because of your role PM. You're presenting one piece of evidence that no one else can trust, and you admit that the only other piece of evidence you have is that Silver and I have been interacting together a lot. So let's address that.
Essentially, your case fails because it lacks a "warrant". A warrant is what connects two separate ideas in a chain of argument. If my argument is "grilled cheese -> is awesome", my warrant might be "cheese tastes good", and "it has a pleasantly hot and gooey texture".
That's the single biggest problem with your argument. You didn't present an argument - you presented an idea. But mafia isn't about presenting ideas and hoping that people are gullible, it's about presenting evidence, and good arguments. You're skipping that, and hoping Shark isn't alert enough to catch it. You haven't made the connection between the two of us talking, and why that makes anyone scum.
Like Silver mentioned, I went out of my way to recruit him to play mafia several months ago during the midst of a bunch of CI drama over site admin and the gutter closing. We made a lot of epic-long posts together in things like the "gloves" thread that resulted in Rianalnn's bump from admin, to tech. I admired his eloquence and thoughtfulness during that fight, and I've been looking forward to playing with him ever since then. Because I respect him and his abilities, my first order of business in this game was to thoroughly grill him and try to figure out which side he was on, because he could either be a great analyst, or he could be the death of us all.
Vox, I don't see what kind of angle you think we could be playing as scum if that's not the truth. How does my questioning Silver at the start of the game make either of us more likely to be scum? Did we just feel like making an extremely explicit connection between the two of us right at the start of the game so that the town would have a really super easy time connecting the dots?
Alternately, Vox wants to say that I'm trying to manipulate Silver. Frankly, I find that a little bit insulting towards Silver, and it ignores how the day has actually played out. Silver posted his PBPA against Vox and TCM without any prodding on my part. He's formed his own ideas, made his own cases, reached his own decisions. No one is pulling Silver's strings here, and if I'm ever scum playing against Silver in the future, he'd been one of the last people I'd ever try to pull a stunt like that on.
I could present about a thousand other things in reply to this, like how grilling people at the start of the game to end RVS is my ordinary meta, or how Silver and I agreeing that you're scum happened quite naturally because you're scummy as hell and we've both been paying attention, but I don't think it's really necessary to write full-length paragraphs on those.
Your entire case is built on talking fast and loose, and lacks any pretense at presenting evidence or thoughtful analysis. You admit you can't find a single valid scum tell on me, and the only scum tell you presented against Silver was that he talks too much. You and TCM are the last scum, and I'm not going to let you steal this out from under us with a bunch of complete BS.
Quote from Vox »
@Azrael - if you're town, then the remaining two mafia are Silver and TCM. If you're town, lynching you or myself loses the game, and you need to lay out a truly compelling argument for the Silver and TCM scum world.
I don't think you are town. But in the unlikely event that you are, you're barking up the wrong tree, and need to reevaluate now.
If you're scum, well.... I'm sorry. Almost. It has to be frustrating to be pegged as scum for what you feel like are terrible reasons. But it's basic interaction analysis and PoE - you are the only person that fits in the likely worlds.
Vote: Azrael
It's *possible* that Silver is scum. But I don't buy it. The only so-called tell anyone has presented against Silver is that he explains too much, which sounds like a null tell if I ever heard one.
The only that pings my suspiciousness index about Silver at all is that he went along with my Vox and TCM read in his PBPA, immediately after I presented my read in post 179. If he's really good, he *could* have been counting on piggybacking off my reads to push a final mislynch, with TCM.
But I don't believe in playing mafia based off unsupported theories about how people could be interacting. I believe in analyzing players behavior for tells.
When I look at Silver, I see townie play. He's been analytical. Curious. Pro-active. Concerned that the town continues to move forward. He hasn't lurked, he hasn't been hesitant in his analysis, he's hasn't cut any corners. His chains of thought have been logical and they've been natural.
Then I compare that to your play, Vox.
Your first two posts in the thread consist of trying to self-consciously accumulate townie credit. There's your meaningless claim gambit, and then there's your stating that you were trying to pull us out of RVS - when the RVS had already terminated. Then you get into that fight with AE, one of our site's known firebrands, and you poke him into overreacting and melting down, on the basis that he "wasn't trying to move the game forward", during the first or second page of the thread. You never provided a valid reason for your vote against him, and you faded into the background as the deadline approached and the town's hand was forced towards picking the only viable wagon left - the wagon that your own flawed case initiated and pushed to fruition.
You start off seeing TCM as scum, and me as town. But when I and Silver both attack you, that suddenly flip-flops to me as scum and TCM as town. And lastly, there's your repeated efforts to get others to perceive you as town and exclude yourself as a viable target for investigation:
Quote from Silver »
-) Voxx hammers in repeatedly that "he's town," using new and inventive ways each time. From his perspective, blah blah. Whichever of the remaining three is town, blah blah. He's not explicitly saying, I'm town!!!!, but he's coming as close as he can while getting away with it.
The evidence doesn't point towards Silver. It points towards Vox/TCM. A lurker, and the initiator of the first mislynch. Self-conscious, credit-seeking, and with reads that flip-flop immediately as you come under pressure. An OMGUS wagon, and two separate scare cases built without any valid evidence.
Shark, the evidence is right there in front of you if you care to read it. And the evidence doesn't lie.
Vote: Vox. If we need to unvote for more discussion, I'm happy to do that, but we're edging close to the line now.
Considering the Vote Count, SF, I am counting on you to vote before deadline. I will be checking in periodically today, up until the deadline. Seppel will likely be on time, so do not stall on giving us your reads please.
TCM is the player I strangely trust most at this point. Yes I did not like his posts at all D1, but his interactions with me lead me to believe he honestly wanted me to get my act together and get focused on catching scum as obviously I hold the hammer. So I trust him at this point.
Voxx I sort of trusted but his question after my vote on considering a SS/TCM scumteam led me to consider an Az/Voxx scumteam, which I can see from experienced players. (Bussing happens and this is a good time to guarantee the win by sacrificing one for the other). I reccommend looking into this.
Az is actually not my top scumread. I actually do not like SS play more. The way SS reacted to my vote of Az reads of a newer player trying to get his scumbuddy to not be lynched. I think SS regardless of anyone else is scum.
I also don't like Az's attempts at buddying/"lecturing" tone in some of his posts.
I will go ahead and Vote Azrael and submit my change vote to SS.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I think I'd have felt more confident with Az lynch going through than redirecting to Silver. I don't trust TCM as much as you seem to. But as I do think the scum team is Az/Silver, it's whatever.
Good luck us, I guess.
I have no idea if we're even supposed to be posting now
I think I'd have felt more confident with Az lynch going through than redirecting to Silver. I don't trust TCM as much as you seem to. But as I do think the scum team is Az/Silver, it's whatever.
Good luck us, I guess.
I have no idea if we're even supposed to be posting now
We can post. It's twilight atm, so we can still talk.
I never made a decision until I posted this post. I was hoping for a last second read on SS, as I figured of the players in this game, his inexperience would yield a reactive town read (additionally, if he was town, this would be his official first loss in the forum).
I got enough of a read now to be sure where to go. I trust TCM the most, so please let me be right about you and I hope you can make the right decision.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Much like the last league game, it comes down to brain vs. gut, for me.
Silver is the more likely scum between you two based on interactions with Az, and the coordinated push to generate the last mislynch they needed.
But my gut is still screaming at me to lynch TCM, instead. Because he just 'feels' more like scum. There also was a troubling inconsistency where he decided I was probably scum soley based off my interactions with Silver, who he was voting - but then later said that Az was the best fit for a scumbuddy with me or Silver. I want him to explain what changed, there, and his line of thinking.
Why were you so willing to lynch Az when you were sold on your Silver case, and thought I was scum with him based on our interactions?
TCM, if you're town, trust in your case on Silver. Re-stating the 2-3 key things that you think confirms him as scum would be great.
Silver, if you're town, it's time to re-evaluate, obviously. You were horrifically wrong about Az, and were horrifically wrong about me. It looks bad for you, but I'm not dead set on lynching you, either. Re-read, and restate the case on TCM based on both his own play and interactions with Az.
I'm unfortunately still in a druggy haze from the flu. I'll try to muscle up something more significant later on, but for now, my thoughts.
I'm not really surprised that Azrael ended up flipping scum, on some level. No matter how much I wanted him to be town, I had a feeling that he wasn't, and was likely going to turn on him toDay. What really stuck out for me was that I did my huge post with all of my cases in it, and he just /barned it while saying that I hit "most of the points." When I told him to expand on the points that I hadn't hit, he just ignored me. That was when I figured out that I was being played. I still felt that Voxx was scum, though, and that Az's line of play was to get town cred by lynching scum!Voxx, then trying to get me to lynch TCM for the win.
So yeah, I had that figured out, even though I obviously couldn't just come out and say it point-blank to Shark.
I still don't like how aggressive Voxx has been this game. It doesn't feel like how he was in Checks, where he just kind of sat back and puppet-mastered. Voxx has been leading the charge constantly, and, as above, he's not even giving enough of a pause to consider that he, himself, might be scum.
TCM has been hard for me to read pretty much the whole game. He was the player I was least certain about when I did my three-in-one post.
I look at this game, and I see the following:
-) I had a strong case on Voxx that went unanswered.
-) I've played with Voxx before, and this Voxx notequals that Voxx.
-) TCM has never played with me, nor I with him, so he doesn't know my meta, nor I his
-) This suggests that the scum power play would be to each side one with us, and direct us against each other.
Quote from Voxx »
and the coordinated push to generate the last mislynch they needed.
There was no coordination. I arrived at my conclusion independently, and Azrael was barning me the whole way down, without providing any of his own input.
Voxx, defend against this. Show me some proof here that defers from my worldview. The way I see it, you and Azrael split up to play me and TCM against each other, with it being accepted that if you went down, Azrael would have the town cred to win on his own, or if Azrael went down, then you would. This seems like a very real thing to me.
But my gut is still screaming at me to lynch TCM, instead. Because he just 'feels' more like scum. There also was a troubling inconsistency where he decided I was probably scum soley based off my interactions with Silver, who he was voting - but then later said that Az was the best fit for a scumbuddy with me or Silver. I want him to explain what changed, there, and his line of thinking.
Nothing really changed. Pre-govenor claim, I had little read on you, believing the scum team to be Silver and SF. After we started rereading each other, I relooked at Silver's interaction, trying to find who could be scum, and he brought to my attention, your wagon on AE and myself, primarily for the lack of "pushing the game through". After looking through the game again, I realized that you and Silver followed each other on the wagon, and I started to think to myself: In all of my scum games, I would have never been so bold to be buddy-buddy with my scumates, especially when trying to lynch a townie. Since I was town, and SF was the Govenor, that meant that Azreal had to be the last scum, and the guaranteed correct pick.
The 2-3 concrete things I have on Silver are:
1). His interaction with Azreal:
From his scum mindset, Azreal could pretty much go on whatever wagon, as long as he and Silver didn't look to suspicious. His talk-talk looks completely null, but could just be made as an attempt to push the day, without drawing the same attention from you, as AE.
2). His jump onto the AE wagon.
After you through your first serious post, Silver commented that he didn't seem too interested, but then later when the wagon starting picking up steam, he jumps on, claiming AE's attitude was the cause for his change. At the same time, he leaves himself open to change, primarily sheeping Vox's original reads of users not trying to move the game forward.
3). His wishy-washy being between two people.
Day 1, he seemed pretty willing to go on quite a few people for a wagon. Even when he joined the AE wagon, he stated he would be willing to switch. Yesterday, it was between Vox and Az, with him trying for Vox, but leaving Az as a fallback. Now knowing that Azreal was scum, I could definitely see this as a case for distancing.
@Vox: As the leader of the AE wagon, I want you to look at Silver's approach to it, and answer what his motivation (both if he was town and scum) were for jumping on when he did.
@Silver: I would like you to respond to my case, or at least the question comments I had after a few of your posts.
But my gut is still screaming at me to lynch TCM, instead. Because he just 'feels' more like scum. There also was a troubling inconsistency where he decided I was probably scum soley based off my interactions with Silver, who he was voting - but then later said that Az was the best fit for a scumbuddy with me or Silver. I want him to explain what changed, there, and his line of thinking.
Nothing really changed. Pre-govenor claim, I had little read on you, believing the scum team to be Silver and SF. After we started rereading each other, I relooked at Silver's interaction, trying to find who could be scum, and he brought to my attention, your wagon on AE and myself, primarily for the lack of "pushing the game through". After looking through the game again, I realized that you and Silver followed each other on the wagon, and I started to think to myself: In all of my scum games, I would have never been so bold to be buddy-buddy with my scumates, especially when trying to lynch a townie. Since I was town, and SF was the Govenor, that meant that Azreal had to be the last scum, and the guaranteed correct pick.
The 2-3 concrete things I have on Silver are:
1). His interaction with Azreal:
From his scum mindset, Azreal could pretty much go on whatever wagon, as long as he and Silver didn't look to suspicious. His talk-talk looks completely null, but could just be made as an attempt to push the day, without drawing the same attention from you, as AE.
2). His jump onto the AE wagon.
After you through your first serious post, Silver commented that he didn't seem too interested, but then later when the wagon starting picking up steam, he jumps on, claiming AE's attitude was the cause for his change. At the same time, he leaves himself open to change, primarily sheeping Vox's original reads of users not trying to move the game forward.
3). His wishy-washy being between two people.
Day 1, he seemed pretty willing to go on quite a few people for a wagon. Even when he joined the AE wagon, he stated he would be willing to switch. Yesterday, it was between Vox and Az, with him trying for Vox, but leaving Az as a fallback. Now knowing that Azreal was scum, I could definitely see this as a case for distancing.
@Vox: As the leader of the AE wagon, I want you to look at Silver's approach to it, and answer what his motivation (both if he was town and scum) were for jumping on when he did.
@Silver: I would like you to respond to my case, or at least the question comments I had after a few of your posts.
I'll try my best to get to it tonight. I need to prepare like three decks for a tournament tomorrow, but I do recognize that time is a concern and I'll do everything I can.
I did want to briefly address you here, though.
#3:
I don't remember every being wishy-washy yesterDay. My big post (which contained quotes and comments for all three of the non-governor players), clearly outlined that Voxx and you were my two picks for scum. As I mentioned above, that changed afterward once I realized that Azrael was playing me, but I couldn't very well just come out and say that. If Voxx had been lynched and Shark didn't throw the game by redirecting the kill to me, I would be slamming Azrael as hard as I could toDay.
Voxx was always my #1 pick yesterDay.
#2 I don't really have anything to defend myself with. I've jumped on several bad wagons based on attitude reasons, and I'm not really sure how to stop myself from doing that. When someone displays a poor attitude in-game, my natural reaction is always that they are scum and are upset about something. It's an area of my play that I need to improve, and I'm aware of that. Nothing else to say.
As for #1, any perfunctory scan of my completed (or even current) games will show that I answer questions when they are posed to me, and if I miss them at the time of posing, I'll go back and answer them. If we can assume that Azrael is aware of this tendency, then, coupled with my stated desire for him to be town (whether or not he actually is), then it certainly opens me up to be played by scum!Azrael. I'll give him credit that I wasn't aware of it until after I posted my cases. But I -still- fail to see how responding to someone's questions necessarily equates to me "being his buddy." If you can highlight specific moments of interaction where you believe that you see something malicious in our interactions, please do so -- it'll make it easier for me to reply. Specifics are better than generals.
Why would you mention this, if you think this is more like his town meta? You wouldn't even be considering a vote if you truly thought he was town...
This early on Day 1 I'm willing to consider a vote on anyone. I'm not going to have confirmed reads within two pages, sorry. Additionally, meta is a notoriously bad argument because the target is always assumed at least marginally self-aware of their own meta, which introduces wifom.
I've given a ton of input on Void already, and I'm standing by what I've said regarding him thusfar.
I've liked Shark's posts so far this game, for once (lol). He's been active and trying to move the game along, which is not something that I see scum doing given the short duration of the day. The various points that Void have raised have some degree of merit, as Shark has himself expressed, but I don't see that as being anything other than Shark's "natural scumminess," and I'm not concerned about it.
Why is that? I would think with only 6 people to look towards, scum would be actively progressing the game, lest they draw attention to themselves...
I believe I noted at some point that I expected scum to be slow-rolling the game because they have the most to gain therein. If the activity levels are low overall, they stand to gain, as the town won't have had the time to generate solid reads. While I agree with you that it wouldn't make sense for them to be actively lurking, I do think that scum would not be attempting to stir the pot on Day 1...but rather riding the waves of everyone elses' activity. If that makes sense?
At this point, I'm most concerned about the people who haven't been trying to move the game along. This means AE and TCM.
What changed from when Vox originally made that point against AE, until this point?
Given that concern, I would say that I am cautiously in favor of an AE or TCM lynch. AE has been belligerent when approached about moving forward, and TCM has been providing examples and discussion that are largely non-seq to this game, which takes time we don't have to work through.
Because to him (and me) the wagon on him is such garbage, considering the number of posts in game. I could use that same argument to say you and Az have just been shooting the ****, instead of actually scum hunting.
I'm going to address these two together.
What changed is that AE had time to react to Vox's point initially. AE reacted angrily, to pretty much everything. I assumed this meant that he was caught, and went from there.
I really didn't like how you brought up an example from another game, considering the rapid deadlines. I reacted to it as an attempt to waste time.
And as far as my interactions with Az goes, I've said before and will say again that I was merely answering the questions he was directing at me. I assumed that they had a purpose, because usually questions like those Az was asking do. I further assumed that he was trying to get a good read on me. I don't think that establishing a read on someone is "shooting the ****." If I can rule out someone in my head as not being scum, then that's a perfectly acceptable end result to a conversation.
[COLOR=darkblue]
My reasons are entirely non-seq to the game. This is an open set-up. Much like after a mass claim, would it not be best to discuss strategies, especially considering there is no RB to hinder them ?
For now, I will Vote AE.I'm open to changing that to TCM, pending further discussion. I am not interested in lynching Void toDay. Maybe toMorrow depending on how the game progresses, but I'm comfortable with my leaning town read on him thusfar.
Despite trying to move the game forward, he opens that line as a quick get out of jail free card, should the AE wagon turn sour.
Void: if you say AE is scum as well as Shark, how do you interpret their recent exchange? Good faking?
I almost always have multiple suspects, and I am almost always ready to admit that I could be wrong. It seems that usually whenever I have conviction in this game, I'm wrong, so I'm learning to keep my options open. I guess that's going to make me a scummy player going forward, but I don't see a way to change that.
Not sure what you're getting at here@Void section.
@TCM -- you're much further down on my list than AE is. I don't know your style, and both you and others who know you have stated that you're a slower player on Day 1. I'm perfectly fine taking that at face value, and I look forward to your contributions as the game progresses. AE, though, I'm pretty confidant that I've stuck a nerve there.
...and now, I am suddenly much farther down on his list, after it seems the AE wagon willl turn fruitful.
I wouldn't say suddenly. You were always a distant second to AE. You -were- second, don't get me wrong -- but AE was my first choice, mostly due to familiarity. As time progressed and I got a better read on you, I lost interest.
I actually wouldn't mind having the Governor claim, just so we have a confirmed townie. That narrows the PoE significantly, since we will have 1 confirmed, and the two remaining VTs will know who they are. For the VTs, it becomes a 66/33 shot. (5 people alive, one of whom is themselves, which means 4 suspects. +confirmed makes 3 unknowns, 2 of whom are scum).
Other than the Governor, nobody's claim matters, since everyone else is assumed VT. I will note that I am -not- the Governor, as I would claim in this instance.
TCM's reaction to AE does seem a little strange, but I'm not giving it any points at this juncture, one way or the other.
I'll be looking into Voxx first, hopefully while TCM provides content. __________________
Even I admit if you were not myself, AE, or a player in FTQ Hectea, my interaction would have been strange. Why did you not question me, or even comment why you thought it was strange?
Because other people had already done so. I'm not going to repeat a question just to hear myself talk. I don't see the need to fill up space mouthing some meaningless drivel. As you say, you yourself would have found it strange were you not in the situation originally. Why should I waste the time commenting on why I thought it was strange. Simply noting that I had in fact noticed it should be sufficient for queen and country.
I assumed that the interaction in question was merely two players who'd played together previously commiserating with each other, and that at the point at which I felt there was something else going on, I could revisit it. I haven't decided that there was something else going on, and so, I haven't.
Governor is either TCM or Shark, I agree. Voxx, myself, and Azrael have all claimed not-it. TCM's "should the governor claim" post was worded suggestively, but I could also see a world wherein Shark is the gov since he suggested the claim in the first place.
So, we have this player list:
TCM
Az
Myself
Voxx
Shark
If TCM is Gov, then we have this:
TCM (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
Shark
Voxx
If Shark is Gov, then we have this:
Shark (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
TCM
Voxx
This suggests to me that at least one of Azrael and Voxx is scum.
Of the two, I'm inclined to say that Voxx is more likely scum than Azrael. Voxx's bizarre opening-post claim seems increasingly bizarre the more I think about it, and he did start the AE tilt-o-matic, which made me convinced that he was scum, as I fully admitted that the whole lack of activity thing was beyond weak.
He calls me/shark confirmed, and seems to be focusing on Vox over Az. This reads to me like distancing, with him going after who ever between us isn't the governor.
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.[/COLOR]
Is there a problem with this line of thinking?
Either you or Shark (whoever was the Gov) was confirmed. As seen in my Big Post, I had a pretty big case on Voxx that I was working up towards. I hadn't yet realized that Azrael was playing me. So, it's only natural that whichever of you/Shark was not Gov, was going to be my 2nd suspect. That feels like a perfectly natural logical procession to me. I took my reads and extrapolated from them the possible universes that I could be dealing with, assuming that my reads were correct. Where do you take issue with this method?
Will be re-reading the entire game and have a post up tonight at some point.
I currently would pull the trigger on Silver if the time limit was closer, but there's some nagging things about TCM that are making my gut trend that way. I've learned to trust my gut in the past, but there's Shark's strong town read on him to consider, too. Doesn't mean Shark can't be infallible, and certainly doesn't mean I won't go against Shark if that's the conclusion I come to - but it's one of the things making sure I don't act hastily.
Despite my gut screaming at me that TCM is the right call, I'm going with
Vote: SilverSihhe
@TCM - if you're town, hammer it and we win.
If you're scum, well. Hammer it and you win.
And congratulations in that case - my gut is still telling me you're scum, but I just can't build an argument in the way I can for Silver. The main things against you are the lack of interactions with Az, and the way you reacted to the AE lynch.
And you not really having a presence in the deciding day.
Which is probably why my gut is screaming to lynch you.
But I just read Silver's posts over and over, and I can't see town reading in such a nervous, over-explaining fashion.
We'll just put the whole game in TCM's hands. It'll be up to TCM to read over the respective cases and replies, and make his call from there. I say you're the last scum. You say I am. If TCM is scum, then he just auto-wins. We're both agreed on that, at the very least.
And Voxx, I was town in Checks and Balances. And I posted in exactly the same way there. You were in Checks, which is another thing that tells me you are scum -- why else would you make this argument? You know how I post, and you know that TCM doesn't. Therefore, you're willfully making me come across poorly, which is something scum does, not town.
TCM: this game's on you, now. I've made my decision. Voxx has made his. Now it's your turn.
I often overexplain when I make meaningful posts as well, so I wouldn't hold that against Silver, as that would be the case for my town meta as well.
Also, nice catch. I try not to interact with my scumates too much, and you caught that. That means my meta will shift again!
The AE thing had zero indication on my alignment. I would have said the same thing even as town. What you should have taken away was how radio silent I was until the day of (even being at work).
Huh. So Azrael's "experienced scum" thing really was a slip, afterall. I was expecting that to just be referring to himself once he flipped.
And I really, honestly, truly am flabbergasted by Voxx's play this game, as compared to that of Checks. I felt I had a legitimately strong case on him as scum when I presented my thoughts on Day 2, and I'm still shocked that he was town even looking back on the game KNOWING that he was town.
And Voxx, I was town in Checks and Balances. And I posted in exactly the same way there. You were in Checks, which is another thing that tells me you are scum -- why else would you make this argument? You know how I post, and you know that TCM doesn't. Therefore, you're willfully making me come across poorly, which is something scum does, not town.
This is terrible logic, regardless of what your alignment ends up being (Spoiler: It's scum). I'm not 'willfully making you come across poorly', I'm explaining why I have a stronger scum read on you than I do TCM, even if barely.
This is not the same way you posted in Checks, and I wouldn't really expect it to be. Every game is different - every role is different. I'm going to be a little more aggressive in a smaller game where I'm vanilla than in a larger game where I had a powerful role.
But what has changed between the two games is the mindset they're coming from, not your play-style itself. So many things are just reeking of Not Town mind-set wise.
I have a couple minutes, I'll go back and pick out the things that stuck out to me.
Quote from Silver »
@Void, if a question is directed to me, I answer it to my fullest capabilities
This is a statement that is recurring all through the game. I think you make it 6-7 times, unless my constant re-reads of the game just make it seem like that many.
It's like you're... trying to defend yourself, or make yourself look better, when there's no need to? It feels like it's coming from a guilty perspective. Town doesn't really care about how they look to other people nearly as much.
Quote from Silver »
Meh. I'm active in that I'm here and waiting for things to say. If I'm approached with a question or some such, I'll be prompt in answering it. I just don't want to sit here and spout nonsense for the sake of hearing my own voice.
There's that line again.
Quote from Silver »
Voxx's bizarre opening-post claim seems increasingly bizarre the more I think about it, and he did start the AE tilt-o-matic, which made me convinced that he was scum, as I fully admitted that the whole lack of activity thing was beyond weak.
Didn't like this. Trying to absolve yourself of guilt being on a town lynch by 'blaming' someone else for using logic that you agreed with at the time.
But jesus christ. TCM's doing his best on this re-read to change my mind about him.
But then I get to the case on me, and it's beyond horrible. It looks like you just tried to cherry pick anything you could spin, which is why PBPA's are garbage. I can see you doing that from a misguided town standpoint, but it's just not... likely, especially when you all but refuse to consider alternative worlds. Tunneling on one thing and hoping the mislynch goes through when the scum team only needs one more mislynch is not something I like.
Your thoughts on Az read especially badly when he's confirmed scum. I don't have to tell you that, of course - but man. It's something else that gives me pause, I had trouble imagining that an experienced player like Az would so...blatantly buddy with his teammate, even if it was 'just one mislynch until the win' territory. It could backfire horrifically, but I guess that was a risk that he was willing to take.
Or it's TCM. Stupid gut.
Your 'case' on TCM is probably the final reason I'm pretty convinced you're scum, for what it's worth.
Quote from Silver »
This still feels empty and like busywork to me.
Quote from Silver »
This game is all about analyzing, but TCM hasn't done any yet.
Also, he admits that there's nothing in the setup to use as a strategy to give the town an advantage. Shocking.
Quote from Silver »
I bet you do (his vote was on Shark, who we now know to be town).
What sticks out here to me, is, no surprise, his comment on me -- which feels to me like a "I'll let it go now, but you're low-hanging fruit and I can attack you whenever I feel like it Tomorrow." He's leaving the door open while he pursues more attractive prey (Shark).
In fact, his comments also smack of the whole "scum caught by bad reasoning" cliche. I fully admitted/still admit that activity-based reasoning is a poor metric to judge someone by, and I also stand by that I didn't really have anything useful to go off of yesterday....we had like 10 pages of content to work with, and that isn't much, at all....especially for Day 1 content. All I had to work with was my gut, and poor arguments. TCM reads like he's offended by my poor arguments, because it caught him but not in a way that he would like to have been caught.
TCM is then quiet for a long stretch, posting by phone near to the deadline to comment that he's at work.
Like, you actually build a decent case on TCM here. It's far better than the one on me, but then you proceed to completely ignore it and tunnel on me once Azreal is lynched, without even considering the possibility that you could be wrong.
That's not the mindset I can fathom coming from town, especially given your careful nature in Checks. It's like you decided it was easier to get TCM to agree to lynch me than it would be to get me to lynch TCM, and tunneled hard on that.
For what it's worth, you probably could have talked me into lynching TCM with a rational case, because I was very, very much torn on the two of you after my re-reads overnight.
...
And I just previewed and welp.
Game is over, and I should have trusted my gut.
Shocking development.
****.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Aside from that, there's also these posts. I think Vox reacted badly to Shark's gambit.
There wasn't any critical need for the governor to step forward immediately, if you think it through. Staying under cover had a good chance of gathering extra reactions from the town, and could trip the scum into attacking a cleared townie and tipping their hands.
I suspect that the reason Vox was getting so antsy about the governor not stepping forward and claiming was that the was afraid of walking into that kind of ambush. With the governor hidden, any move the scum made to home in on another target had a severe chance of backfiring on them, and it looks like that possibility may have gotten under his skin a little bit. ("Unfathomably stupid", "Annoying").
Vote Azrael
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Azrael (1): SharkFinnigan
Not Voting (4): Azrael, SilverSihhe, The Cold Monarch, Voxxicus
With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
Deadline is February 13th @ 10 AM EST, which is in 90.5 hours from now.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Do you think it's plausible for TCM and Silver to be mafia together, based on their interactions? It's possible of course, but in terms of likelihood where would you put it?
This question has a purpose, I promise!
(Will have a more in depth post in the morning, just got home from an 18 hour work day, and this was something that was on my mind).
Now to your question, I plan to speak more in twilight, but I believe that one of the other 3 players (including Az) is surprisingly town and one that is most obviously scum.
It is not out of the question that TCM and Silver could be scum, but there may be another combo that is stronger.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I understand perfectly now?
I've laid out my cases, and unless I'm missing a question for me somewhere, I'm not seeing anything to reply to at this time.
Maybe a vote will make something happen. We're just kind of sitting here right now. Vote Voxx.
Explain Az's interactions with you early game?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
He asked me questions and I answered? How is this a confusing subject? If someone asks me a question, I answer it =/
It either bleeds of scumbuddy interaction or buddying for later on in the game (and given what I've seen, I am pretty sure either are strong possibilities).
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I'll fully admit that I WANT Azrael to be town. He's the guy who got me into the game as a whole, so I'm favorably inclined towards him on a personal level.
What do you mean, "given what you've seen," by the way? A fairly short time ago, you had me as strongly town. Has that changed? If so, why?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Fair. I'll agree to disagree. As I said, I've made my cases, and if I've failed to get across my viewpoint / if my viewpoint isn't persuasive enough compared to yours, then that's fine, and I'll happily accept advice on what I could have done better post-game.
This is an awkward situation for me to be trying to give you advice, but I don't understand why in a lynch or lose situation anything could be gained by not talking over your reads with the rest of the players before the lynch goes final. Especially if you're not certain of your reads, and the game hinges on getting the next lynch right.
Maybe this is just a gambit. But if it's not, it seems like a classic case of a single player not taking advantage of the fact that they have teammates on their side to talk things over with.
I don't see how you're getting a Vox-town read. I certainly don't understand how you're getting a scum-read on me. The only thing I can think of is that at the start of the game you mentioned that you tend to want to kill more experienced players because you're afraid you won't be able read them correctly. And if that's all this is - I'm being lynched because I'm more experienced, or maybe you just don't understand certain aspects of my play like my interactions with Silver- these seem like the kind of mistakes that ought to be really simple to talk over and prevent.
If you want to talk it over, we're here. If you decide to go all lone-ranger vigilante on us and don't even give us the benefit of knowing what you're thinking, then I guess there's nothing we can do to help prevent this.
This line of play is just really tough for me to understand. If we wind up flushing this game down the toilet without even knowing the reasons why, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated.
I would really like TCM to speak asap
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I'm not voting solely because I don't want to create the opportunity for a speed-lynch to happen if you go missing for a 24-hour period, and don't have the chance to redirect it, or possibly if another townie gets a little too trigger-happy. I've made it pretty clear that so far, I intend to vote for Vox before the deadline.
I think all of us have been waiting for *you* to weigh in and actually say where you're coming down on this, what cases and evidence are persuasive to you, what isn't, and what you're having trouble figuring out. It's not all just he said, she said, 50-50 shot. Two of the players talking to you are doing their best to tell you the truth, and the other two are full of it, and you and maybe TCM seem to be the last people who haven't truly made up your minds or explained your position on that.
You seem to be having a hard time deciding, so if I were in your shoes, I'd try talking it over with the other players and see if that helps clear anything up. What exactly is confusing you?
I've re-read the thread one last time and while I'm still not 100% certain, I'm willing to dismiss TCM and Silver as being a possible world that we are in. In a vacuum those two are probably scummier than Azrael has been this game, but interactions do not exist in a vacuum - I do not think they are likely to be scum together.
So that makes the scum team either Azrael and Silver, or Azrael and TCM.
There's a common link there, of course, and Azrael is effectively confirmed scum if I discount the possibility of TCM/Silver.
The problem is, I f we lynch Az, Shark gets shot, and it comes down to myself, Silver and TCM the final day - I don't have a strong belief on what I want to do.
I can see both worlds.
I can see Azrael and Silver's interactions as scumbuddy buddying, or as scum buddying with town he thinks he can successfully manipulate.
I'm leaning Azrael/Silver at the moment - so many of Silver's posts just read like he's over-explaining things. Overly defensive, overreacting, whatever you wish to call it - it doesn't feel genuine. It's something that is difficult to articulate and explain, but it doesn't feel town.
There's also the 'Yeah, let's just lynch AE and TCM' dichotomy he was forcing earlier in the game, which would be the two mislynches he needed. Until they decided they thought they could mislynch me easier than TCM after AE flipped town, presumably.
But.
I can't shake the way TCM reacted to AE's lynch.
I still don't like it.
It read like he 100% knew AE's alignment, and was going for town credit by being all OH NO, WHY ARE YOU LYNCHING TOWN at the last moment. There's only one way he could 100% know AE's alignment. If, y'know. He was scum.
But I freely admit that it could just be him able to read AE much better than the rest of us apparently can. But then why didn't he fight the lynch harder /before/ the 'damn I'm sorry bro' **** at the last minute, prior to the flip, even?
It just makes me uneasy, and is the thing keeping me from just setting Az/Silver in stone and betting the game on it.
I want thoughts from Shark on both possible worlds, and what he would do tomorrow.
I know you aren't infallible, even as town - but there's effectively no chance you'll be around tomorrow, and I want more opinions backing up my own thought process that aren't tainted from the indecision I'm feeling after multiple re-reads.
@Azrael - if you're town, then the remaining two mafia are Silver and TCM. If you're town, lynching you or myself loses the game, and you need to lay out a truly compelling argument for the Silver and TCM scum world.
I don't think you are town. But in the unlikely event that you are, you're barking up the wrong tree, and need to reevaluate now.
If you're scum, well.... I'm sorry. Almost. It has to be frustrating to be pegged as scum for what you feel like are terrible reasons. But it's basic interaction analysis and PoE - you are the only person that fits in the likely worlds.
Vote: Azrael
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Az +Silver
Az+ Vox
Silver+Vox
I have a special insight that unfortunately, all of you lack: I know that both of the scum were on the AE wagon. I wish I was the Governor, only because the perspective can really help you understand my perspective, and why I am viewing the game like I am.
What that tells me is that despite them being the top two suspects, it would greatly surprise me to believe that Silver would tie himself to tightly to Vox, after starting a wagon on a known townie.
I already stated my opinion on Silver in the matter. I still have to read Vox, but I still think my initial read was correct. His last post towards SF has a very awkward feeling to me as well.
That being said, it seems that Azreal is the only logical choice to be Silver/Vox's scumbuddy, and rather than try to push a 50-50 chance, I would rather go for the sure thing. We have plenty of time before deadline (if we know what we are doing), so SF, any recommendations?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I do find it a little silly that you've abandoned even the pretense of even making a case against me, personally.
I find it equally silly that you say Silver has been scummier than I have, simply because he's been more thorough and careful in explaining his positions - because he's a good analyst.
Your entire case boils down to this: "Az and Silver have been talking together a lot, therefore they must be scum or buddying up".
I feel like it ought to be painfully unnecessary to point out that you're completely assuming, skipping, and glossing over not just any other interpretation of those facts, but any other piece of evidence in the entire game other than what you claim to know because of your role PM. You're presenting one piece of evidence that no one else can trust, and you admit that the only other piece of evidence you have is that Silver and I have been interacting together a lot. So let's address that.
Essentially, your case fails because it lacks a "warrant". A warrant is what connects two separate ideas in a chain of argument. If my argument is "grilled cheese -> is awesome", my warrant might be "cheese tastes good", and "it has a pleasantly hot and gooey texture".
That's the single biggest problem with your argument. You didn't present an argument - you presented an idea. But mafia isn't about presenting ideas and hoping that people are gullible, it's about presenting evidence, and good arguments. You're skipping that, and hoping Shark isn't alert enough to catch it. You haven't made the connection between the two of us talking, and why that makes anyone scum.
Like Silver mentioned, I went out of my way to recruit him to play mafia several months ago during the midst of a bunch of CI drama over site admin and the gutter closing. We made a lot of epic-long posts together in things like the "gloves" thread that resulted in Rianalnn's bump from admin, to tech. I admired his eloquence and thoughtfulness during that fight, and I've been looking forward to playing with him ever since then. Because I respect him and his abilities, my first order of business in this game was to thoroughly grill him and try to figure out which side he was on, because he could either be a great analyst, or he could be the death of us all.
Vox, I don't see what kind of angle you think we could be playing as scum if that's not the truth. How does my questioning Silver at the start of the game make either of us more likely to be scum? Did we just feel like making an extremely explicit connection between the two of us right at the start of the game so that the town would have a really super easy time connecting the dots?
Alternately, Vox wants to say that I'm trying to manipulate Silver. Frankly, I find that a little bit insulting towards Silver, and it ignores how the day has actually played out. Silver posted his PBPA against Vox and TCM without any prodding on my part. He's formed his own ideas, made his own cases, reached his own decisions. No one is pulling Silver's strings here, and if I'm ever scum playing against Silver in the future, he'd been one of the last people I'd ever try to pull a stunt like that on.
I could present about a thousand other things in reply to this, like how grilling people at the start of the game to end RVS is my ordinary meta, or how Silver and I agreeing that you're scum happened quite naturally because you're scummy as hell and we've both been paying attention, but I don't think it's really necessary to write full-length paragraphs on those.
Your entire case is built on talking fast and loose, and lacks any pretense at presenting evidence or thoughtful analysis. You admit you can't find a single valid scum tell on me, and the only scum tell you presented against Silver was that he talks too much. You and TCM are the last scum, and I'm not going to let you steal this out from under us with a bunch of complete BS.
It's *possible* that Silver is scum. But I don't buy it. The only so-called tell anyone has presented against Silver is that he explains too much, which sounds like a null tell if I ever heard one.
The only that pings my suspiciousness index about Silver at all is that he went along with my Vox and TCM read in his PBPA, immediately after I presented my read in post 179. If he's really good, he *could* have been counting on piggybacking off my reads to push a final mislynch, with TCM.
But I don't believe in playing mafia based off unsupported theories about how people could be interacting. I believe in analyzing players behavior for tells.
When I look at Silver, I see townie play. He's been analytical. Curious. Pro-active. Concerned that the town continues to move forward. He hasn't lurked, he hasn't been hesitant in his analysis, he's hasn't cut any corners. His chains of thought have been logical and they've been natural.
Then I compare that to your play, Vox.
Your first two posts in the thread consist of trying to self-consciously accumulate townie credit. There's your meaningless claim gambit, and then there's your stating that you were trying to pull us out of RVS - when the RVS had already terminated. Then you get into that fight with AE, one of our site's known firebrands, and you poke him into overreacting and melting down, on the basis that he "wasn't trying to move the game forward", during the first or second page of the thread. You never provided a valid reason for your vote against him, and you faded into the background as the deadline approached and the town's hand was forced towards picking the only viable wagon left - the wagon that your own flawed case initiated and pushed to fruition.
You start off seeing TCM as scum, and me as town. But when I and Silver both attack you, that suddenly flip-flops to me as scum and TCM as town. And lastly, there's your repeated efforts to get others to perceive you as town and exclude yourself as a viable target for investigation:
The evidence doesn't point towards Silver. It points towards Vox/TCM. A lurker, and the initiator of the first mislynch. Self-conscious, credit-seeking, and with reads that flip-flop immediately as you come under pressure. An OMGUS wagon, and two separate scare cases built without any valid evidence.
Shark, the evidence is right there in front of you if you care to read it. And the evidence doesn't lie.
Vote: Vox. If we need to unvote for more discussion, I'm happy to do that, but we're edging close to the line now.
Azrael (2): SharkFinnigan, Voxxicus
Voxxicus (2): SilverSihhe, Azrael
Not Voting (1): The Cold Monarch
With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
Deadline is February 13th @ 10 AM EST, which is in 23 hours from now.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Vote Azreal
The GJ way path to no lynching:
TCM is the player I strangely trust most at this point. Yes I did not like his posts at all D1, but his interactions with me lead me to believe he honestly wanted me to get my act together and get focused on catching scum as obviously I hold the hammer. So I trust him at this point.
Voxx I sort of trusted but his question after my vote on considering a SS/TCM scumteam led me to consider an Az/Voxx scumteam, which I can see from experienced players. (Bussing happens and this is a good time to guarantee the win by sacrificing one for the other). I reccommend looking into this.
Az is actually not my top scumread. I actually do not like SS play more. The way SS reacted to my vote of Az reads of a newer player trying to get his scumbuddy to not be lynched. I think SS regardless of anyone else is scum.
I also don't like Az's attempts at buddying/"lecturing" tone in some of his posts.
I will go ahead and Vote Azrael and submit my change vote to SS.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Azrael (3): Voxxicus, The Cold Monarch, SharkFinnigan
Voxxicus (2): SilverSihhe, Azrael
With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
Azrael will be lynched if not pardoned by the governor in 24 hours.
GG, scum. What a mess.
*fingers crossed*
You serious???? O_o
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Just waiting for Seppel now...
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Good luck us, I guess.
I have no idea if we're even supposed to be posting now
We can post. It's twilight atm, so we can still talk.
I never made a decision until I posted this post. I was hoping for a last second read on SS, as I figured of the players in this game, his inexperience would yield a reactive town read (additionally, if he was town, this would be his official first loss in the forum).
I got enough of a read now to be sure where to go. I trust TCM the most, so please let me be right about you and I hope you can make the right decision.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
It is now Night 2. Get your night actions in to me within 48 hours.
It is now Day 3.
With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.
You have 120 hours from the time of this post to come to a decision on a lynch, or else the mafia wins by default.
Silver is the more likely scum between you two based on interactions with Az, and the coordinated push to generate the last mislynch they needed.
But my gut is still screaming at me to lynch TCM, instead. Because he just 'feels' more like scum. There also was a troubling inconsistency where he decided I was probably scum soley based off my interactions with Silver, who he was voting - but then later said that Az was the best fit for a scumbuddy with me or Silver. I want him to explain what changed, there, and his line of thinking.
Why were you so willing to lynch Az when you were sold on your Silver case, and thought I was scum with him based on our interactions?
TCM, if you're town, trust in your case on Silver. Re-stating the 2-3 key things that you think confirms him as scum would be great.
Silver, if you're town, it's time to re-evaluate, obviously. You were horrifically wrong about Az, and were horrifically wrong about me. It looks bad for you, but I'm not dead set on lynching you, either. Re-read, and restate the case on TCM based on both his own play and interactions with Az.
I'm not really surprised that Azrael ended up flipping scum, on some level. No matter how much I wanted him to be town, I had a feeling that he wasn't, and was likely going to turn on him toDay. What really stuck out for me was that I did my huge post with all of my cases in it, and he just /barned it while saying that I hit "most of the points." When I told him to expand on the points that I hadn't hit, he just ignored me. That was when I figured out that I was being played. I still felt that Voxx was scum, though, and that Az's line of play was to get town cred by lynching scum!Voxx, then trying to get me to lynch TCM for the win.
So yeah, I had that figured out, even though I obviously couldn't just come out and say it point-blank to Shark.
I still don't like how aggressive Voxx has been this game. It doesn't feel like how he was in Checks, where he just kind of sat back and puppet-mastered. Voxx has been leading the charge constantly, and, as above, he's not even giving enough of a pause to consider that he, himself, might be scum.
TCM has been hard for me to read pretty much the whole game. He was the player I was least certain about when I did my three-in-one post.
I look at this game, and I see the following:
-) I had a strong case on Voxx that went unanswered.
-) I've played with Voxx before, and this Voxx notequals that Voxx.
-) TCM has never played with me, nor I with him, so he doesn't know my meta, nor I his
-) This suggests that the scum power play would be to each side one with us, and direct us against each other.
There was no coordination. I arrived at my conclusion independently, and Azrael was barning me the whole way down, without providing any of his own input.
Voxx, defend against this. Show me some proof here that defers from my worldview. The way I see it, you and Azrael split up to play me and TCM against each other, with it being accepted that if you went down, Azrael would have the town cred to win on his own, or if Azrael went down, then you would. This seems like a very real thing to me.
Nothing really changed. Pre-govenor claim, I had little read on you, believing the scum team to be Silver and SF. After we started rereading each other, I relooked at Silver's interaction, trying to find who could be scum, and he brought to my attention, your wagon on AE and myself, primarily for the lack of "pushing the game through". After looking through the game again, I realized that you and Silver followed each other on the wagon, and I started to think to myself: In all of my scum games, I would have never been so bold to be buddy-buddy with my scumates, especially when trying to lynch a townie. Since I was town, and SF was the Govenor, that meant that Azreal had to be the last scum, and the guaranteed correct pick.
The 2-3 concrete things I have on Silver are:
1). His interaction with Azreal:
From his scum mindset, Azreal could pretty much go on whatever wagon, as long as he and Silver didn't look to suspicious. His talk-talk looks completely null, but could just be made as an attempt to push the day, without drawing the same attention from you, as AE.
2). His jump onto the AE wagon.
After you through your first serious post, Silver commented that he didn't seem too interested, but then later when the wagon starting picking up steam, he jumps on, claiming AE's attitude was the cause for his change. At the same time, he leaves himself open to change, primarily sheeping Vox's original reads of users not trying to move the game forward.
3). His wishy-washy being between two people.
Day 1, he seemed pretty willing to go on quite a few people for a wagon. Even when he joined the AE wagon, he stated he would be willing to switch. Yesterday, it was between Vox and Az, with him trying for Vox, but leaving Az as a fallback. Now knowing that Azreal was scum, I could definitely see this as a case for distancing.
@Vox: As the leader of the AE wagon, I want you to look at Silver's approach to it, and answer what his motivation (both if he was town and scum) were for jumping on when he did.
@Silver: I would like you to respond to my case, or at least the question comments I had after a few of your posts.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I'll try my best to get to it tonight. I need to prepare like three decks for a tournament tomorrow, but I do recognize that time is a concern and I'll do everything I can.
I did want to briefly address you here, though.
#3:
I don't remember every being wishy-washy yesterDay. My big post (which contained quotes and comments for all three of the non-governor players), clearly outlined that Voxx and you were my two picks for scum. As I mentioned above, that changed afterward once I realized that Azrael was playing me, but I couldn't very well just come out and say that. If Voxx had been lynched and Shark didn't throw the game by redirecting the kill to me, I would be slamming Azrael as hard as I could toDay.
Voxx was always my #1 pick yesterDay.
#2 I don't really have anything to defend myself with. I've jumped on several bad wagons based on attitude reasons, and I'm not really sure how to stop myself from doing that. When someone displays a poor attitude in-game, my natural reaction is always that they are scum and are upset about something. It's an area of my play that I need to improve, and I'm aware of that. Nothing else to say.
As for #1, any perfunctory scan of my completed (or even current) games will show that I answer questions when they are posed to me, and if I miss them at the time of posing, I'll go back and answer them. If we can assume that Azrael is aware of this tendency, then, coupled with my stated desire for him to be town (whether or not he actually is), then it certainly opens me up to be played by scum!Azrael. I'll give him credit that I wasn't aware of it until after I posted my cases. But I -still- fail to see how responding to someone's questions necessarily equates to me "being his buddy." If you can highlight specific moments of interaction where you believe that you see something malicious in our interactions, please do so -- it'll make it easier for me to reply. Specifics are better than generals.
This early on Day 1 I'm willing to consider a vote on anyone. I'm not going to have confirmed reads within two pages, sorry. Additionally, meta is a notoriously bad argument because the target is always assumed at least marginally self-aware of their own meta, which introduces wifom.
I believe I noted at some point that I expected scum to be slow-rolling the game because they have the most to gain therein. If the activity levels are low overall, they stand to gain, as the town won't have had the time to generate solid reads. While I agree with you that it wouldn't make sense for them to be actively lurking, I do think that scum would not be attempting to stir the pot on Day 1...but rather riding the waves of everyone elses' activity. If that makes sense?
I'm going to address these two together.
What changed is that AE had time to react to Vox's point initially. AE reacted angrily, to pretty much everything. I assumed this meant that he was caught, and went from there.
I really didn't like how you brought up an example from another game, considering the rapid deadlines. I reacted to it as an attempt to waste time.
And as far as my interactions with Az goes, I've said before and will say again that I was merely answering the questions he was directing at me. I assumed that they had a purpose, because usually questions like those Az was asking do. I further assumed that he was trying to get a good read on me. I don't think that establishing a read on someone is "shooting the ****." If I can rule out someone in my head as not being scum, then that's a perfectly acceptable end result to a conversation.
I almost always have multiple suspects, and I am almost always ready to admit that I could be wrong. It seems that usually whenever I have conviction in this game, I'm wrong, so I'm learning to keep my options open. I guess that's going to make me a scummy player going forward, but I don't see a way to change that.
Not sure what you're getting at here@Void section.
I wouldn't say suddenly. You were always a distant second to AE. You -were- second, don't get me wrong -- but AE was my first choice, mostly due to familiarity. As time progressed and I got a better read on you, I lost interest.
Because other people had already done so. I'm not going to repeat a question just to hear myself talk. I don't see the need to fill up space mouthing some meaningless drivel. As you say, you yourself would have found it strange were you not in the situation originally. Why should I waste the time commenting on why I thought it was strange. Simply noting that I had in fact noticed it should be sufficient for queen and country.
I assumed that the interaction in question was merely two players who'd played together previously commiserating with each other, and that at the point at which I felt there was something else going on, I could revisit it. I haven't decided that there was something else going on, and so, I haven't.
Is there a problem with this line of thinking?
Either you or Shark (whoever was the Gov) was confirmed. As seen in my Big Post, I had a pretty big case on Voxx that I was working up towards. I hadn't yet realized that Azrael was playing me. So, it's only natural that whichever of you/Shark was not Gov, was going to be my 2nd suspect. That feels like a perfectly natural logical procession to me. I took my reads and extrapolated from them the possible universes that I could be dealing with, assuming that my reads were correct. Where do you take issue with this method?
I currently would pull the trigger on Silver if the time limit was closer, but there's some nagging things about TCM that are making my gut trend that way. I've learned to trust my gut in the past, but there's Shark's strong town read on him to consider, too. Doesn't mean Shark can't be infallible, and certainly doesn't mean I won't go against Shark if that's the conclusion I come to - but it's one of the things making sure I don't act hastily.
Can't shake the over-defensiveness.
Can't shake the interactions with Az.
Despite my gut screaming at me that TCM is the right call, I'm going with
Vote: SilverSihhe
@TCM - if you're town, hammer it and we win.
If you're scum, well. Hammer it and you win.
And congratulations in that case - my gut is still telling me you're scum, but I just can't build an argument in the way I can for Silver. The main things against you are the lack of interactions with Az, and the way you reacted to the AE lynch.
And you not really having a presence in the deciding day.
Which is probably why my gut is screaming to lynch you.
But I just read Silver's posts over and over, and I can't see town reading in such a nervous, over-explaining fashion.
The mindset doesn't match.
So that's my final decision, I guess.
We'll just put the whole game in TCM's hands. It'll be up to TCM to read over the respective cases and replies, and make his call from there. I say you're the last scum. You say I am. If TCM is scum, then he just auto-wins. We're both agreed on that, at the very least.
And Voxx, I was town in Checks and Balances. And I posted in exactly the same way there. You were in Checks, which is another thing that tells me you are scum -- why else would you make this argument? You know how I post, and you know that TCM doesn't. Therefore, you're willfully making me come across poorly, which is something scum does, not town.
TCM: this game's on you, now. I've made my decision. Voxx has made his. Now it's your turn.
I am sorry gents, but I was scum that game
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I often overexplain when I make meaningful posts as well, so I wouldn't hold that against Silver, as that would be the case for my town meta as well.
Also, nice catch. I try not to interact with my scumates too much, and you caught that. That means my meta will shift again!
The AE thing had zero indication on my alignment. I would have said the same thing even as town. What you should have taken away was how radio silent I was until the day of (even being at work).
The GJ way path to no lynching:
And I really, honestly, truly am flabbergasted by Voxx's play this game, as compared to that of Checks. I felt I had a legitimately strong case on him as scum when I presented my thoughts on Day 2, and I'm still shocked that he was town even looking back on the game KNOWING that he was town.
I'll be damned, I guess =/
This is terrible logic, regardless of what your alignment ends up being (Spoiler: It's scum). I'm not 'willfully making you come across poorly', I'm explaining why I have a stronger scum read on you than I do TCM, even if barely.
This is not the same way you posted in Checks, and I wouldn't really expect it to be. Every game is different - every role is different. I'm going to be a little more aggressive in a smaller game where I'm vanilla than in a larger game where I had a powerful role.
But what has changed between the two games is the mindset they're coming from, not your play-style itself. So many things are just reeking of Not Town mind-set wise.
I have a couple minutes, I'll go back and pick out the things that stuck out to me.
This is a statement that is recurring all through the game. I think you make it 6-7 times, unless my constant re-reads of the game just make it seem like that many.
It's like you're... trying to defend yourself, or make yourself look better, when there's no need to? It feels like it's coming from a guilty perspective. Town doesn't really care about how they look to other people nearly as much.
There's that line again.
Didn't like this. Trying to absolve yourself of guilt being on a town lynch by 'blaming' someone else for using logic that you agreed with at the time.
But jesus christ. TCM's doing his best on this re-read to change my mind about him.
But then I get to the case on me, and it's beyond horrible. It looks like you just tried to cherry pick anything you could spin, which is why PBPA's are garbage. I can see you doing that from a misguided town standpoint, but it's just not... likely, especially when you all but refuse to consider alternative worlds. Tunneling on one thing and hoping the mislynch goes through when the scum team only needs one more mislynch is not something I like.
Your thoughts on Az read especially badly when he's confirmed scum. I don't have to tell you that, of course - but man. It's something else that gives me pause, I had trouble imagining that an experienced player like Az would so...blatantly buddy with his teammate, even if it was 'just one mislynch until the win' territory. It could backfire horrifically, but I guess that was a risk that he was willing to take.
Or it's TCM. Stupid gut.
Your 'case' on TCM is probably the final reason I'm pretty convinced you're scum, for what it's worth.
Like, you actually build a decent case on TCM here. It's far better than the one on me, but then you proceed to completely ignore it and tunnel on me once Azreal is lynched, without even considering the possibility that you could be wrong.
That's not the mindset I can fathom coming from town, especially given your careful nature in Checks. It's like you decided it was easier to get TCM to agree to lynch me than it would be to get me to lynch TCM, and tunneled hard on that.
For what it's worth, you probably could have talked me into lynching TCM with a rational case, because I was very, very much torn on the two of you after my re-reads overnight.
...
And I just previewed and welp.
Game is over, and I should have trusted my gut.
Shocking development.
****.