My initial instinct is that I don't want a Governor claim (unless you're going to be lynched).
But I don't think it's feasible for it to come down to a 1 vs. 1 world, where the Governer is most powerful. With the cop also being revealed, it removes the possibility of 2 townfirms vs. 1 unfirmed at 3 remaining.
So
I guess I'm okay with a claim?
I am not the governer.
It's one of TCM or Shark, neither of who I've been willing to write off as town without the claim. So I suppose go ahead and claim, and I'll do a thorough re-read to try and nail down possible worlds.
Governor is either TCM or Shark, I agree. Voxx, myself, and Azrael have all claimed not-it. TCM's "should the governor claim" post was worded suggestively, but I could also see a world wherein Shark is the gov since he suggested the claim in the first place.
So, we have this player list:
TCM
Az
Myself
Voxx
Shark
If TCM is Gov, then we have this:
TCM (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
Shark
Voxx
If Shark is Gov, then we have this:
Shark (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
TCM
Voxx
This suggests to me that at least one of Azrael and Voxx is scum.
Of the two, I'm inclined to say that Voxx is more likely scum than Azrael. Voxx's bizarre opening-post claim seems increasingly bizarre the more I think about it, and he did start the AE tilt-o-matic, which made me convinced that he was scum, as I fully admitted that the whole lack of activity thing was beyond weak.
Edit via double: Also, nobody should be voting, at all. If ONE person votes a townie, the two scum can quicklynch and win. Make your cases and let's have some good debate and all, but -nobody- should include a vote with their thoughts.
Edit via double: Also, nobody should be voting, at all. If ONE person votes a townie, the two scum can quicklynch and win. Make your cases and let's have some good debate and all, but -nobody- should include a vote with their thoughts.
Governor can prevent the quicklynch you know.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Edit via double: Also, nobody should be voting, at all. If ONE person votes a townie, the two scum can quicklynch and win. Make your cases and let's have some good debate and all, but -nobody- should include a vote with their thoughts.
SS: I have a question for you. Do you expect TCM to claim governor and why?
If you're not claiming it, then yes. The language that he uses when referring to the governor is very careful....similar to what one would use when trying to refer to yourself in the 3rd person without actually doing so. Also, he didn't explicitly state that he is -not- claiming Governor, which everyone but you and TCM have done.
SS: I have a question for you. Do you expect TCM to claim governor and why?
If you're not claiming it, then yes. The language that he uses when referring to the governor is very careful....similar to what one would use when trying to refer to yourself in the 3rd person without actually doing so. Also, he didn't explicitly state that he is -not- claiming Governor, which everyone but you and TCM have done.
Note that TCM is the only player alive that did not vote AE.
So why would TCM be governor if I am not?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
You post shortly before deadline with enough time to at least make a pitch on who is a better lynch, but yet you really dont do so, and in minutes following deadline, you go off and say "o darn, I should have done more". That sounds scummy to me.
Also Voxx is the last person to chime in.
My vote on you would have done the trick as far as who I saw the between of you. I also couldn't do more (and I wish my posts reflected this), but the post I did a few hours before was from my phone. I can barely post there, let alone, quote. I was on break, so I really couldn't make a pitch, without getting into trouble.
Also @ your last post: This is exactly why I thought you were scum. It seems clear you aren't paying attention. The reason Silver knows it is one of us is because everyone aside from us claimed vanilla....
That said, I was wrong. Lead the way and get your head into the game.
Obviously (as the only person to say "not it") you are the govenor.
As far as the scum on AE's wagon, I would have to go Silver and...I don't know.
I was pretty stuck on you for scum, and Silv for his pushing of the AE wagon. I will have to reread Vox and Az before I have a confidant read on the other.
You post shortly before deadline with enough time to at least make a pitch on who is a better lynch, but yet you really dont do so, and in minutes following deadline, you go off and say "o darn, I should have done more". That sounds scummy to me.
Also Voxx is the last person to chime in.
My vote on you would have done the trick as far as who I saw the between of you. I also couldn't do more (and I wish my posts reflected this), but the post I did a few hours before was from my phone. I can barely post there, let alone, quote. I was on break, so I really couldn't make a pitch, without getting into trouble.
Also @ your last post: This is exactly why I thought you were scum. It seems clear you aren't paying attention. The reason Silver knows it is one of us is because everyone aside from us claimed vanilla....
That said, I was wrong. Lead the way and get your head into the game.
What do the last 2 statements imply? I don't understand them?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
What do the last 2 statements imply? I don't understand them?
This one:
Also @ your last post: This is exactly why I thought you were scum. It seems clear you aren't paying attention. The reason Silver knows it is one of us is because everyone aside from us claimed vanilla...
.
There are 5 players. 3 claimed vanilla. Me and you are the two that have said nothing. Therefore, one us is the govenor. How did you not grasp that from Silver's post?
And this one:
That said, I was wrong. Lead the way and get your head into the game.
I am vanilla, therefore you are the Govenor by default. Meaning you are confirmed town, and the only player everyone knows is working from a town perspective.
I was actually hoping TCM would be the townfirm, because I was leaning towards an Az/Shark scumteam, with Az making the deciding vote on AE vs. Shark.
I'm not sure what fishing for a counterclaim serves though. Scum are not going to fakeclaim a confirmable role. Like, why demand the real governor claim when he's the only person that hasn't claimed not to be it?
Regardless, we're looking at 2 mafia in TCM, Silver, Azreal from my perspective.
What it does mean is that we had three lynch wagons built up to at least 3 people, and all three are confirmed town.
So there's probably good data in the Void lynch, the Shark lynch, and the AE lynch.
So, @TCM, Silver, Azreal.
Whichever of you three is town knows the the remaining two are mafia. It's just a matter of selling your perspective.
I can't prove that I'm town as vanilla, any more than you can. But I'll answer any questions people have, and read back through to see if anything jumps out at me from that cluster of three names.
If someone is fakeclaiming vanilla as the actual governor, by the way, it's in our best interests for them to speak up, and fast, so that we don't operate under false premises.
~Preview Edit~ Shark, are you officially saying that you are not the governor? Because for that to be the case, the real governor would have had to claim not to be it. Which is kind of annoying, and serve no purpose.
Well, I *think* I know what's going on, and we're probably best off proceeding with the day as though the governor doesn't exist, up until it's time to lynch. We can't afford to waste any more time on this silliness, waiting for him to claim.
My best read for scum at the moment, and also, incidentally, my best hunch on our reluctant governor, are both Vox, contradictory as that may seem. I'm short on time at the moment, but I'll see what I can rustle up with a full reread as soon as I can. I'd suggest that everyone else do likewise.
(Also, if Shark is not the Govener, and someone is fakeclaiming vanilla for some unfathomably stupid reason, then disregard most of my previous post. Well. No, it still holds true, just the names are shuffled).
Nath'd a bit, perhaps. I don't think there's much harm in our continuing to theorize who the governor might be, but don't hold your breath waiting on him to come forward. I suspect he has his reasons for doing this, and it actually makes a good bit of sense to try this tactic.
Nath'd a bit, perhaps. I don't think there's much harm in our continuing to theorize who the governor might be, but don't hold your breath waiting on him to come forward. I suspect he has his reasons for doing this, and it actually makes a good bit of sense to try this tactic.
Would you prefer the governor to claim or are more interested in moving the game along, even if under as Voxx says "false pretenses"
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
And I'm pretty annoyed at whoever is trying to play games with not claiming at this point.
Like, there are very limited scenarios where the role is going to be genuinely useful beyond townfirming today. And townfirming someone helps rule out possible scumteams, and makes other people more or less likely scum, even if you are not in danger of being lynched.
So stop being intentionally obstructive and claim.
I want to be able to know with 100% certainty that 2 out of 3 people are mafia, and then hunt back to the thread to make the best decision possible, and then sell it.
Nath'd a bit, perhaps. I don't think there's much harm in our continuing to theorize who the governor might be, but don't hold your breath waiting on him to come forward. I suspect he has his reasons for doing this, and it actually makes a good bit of sense to try this tactic.
Would you prefer the governor to claim or are more interested in moving the game along, even if under as Voxx says "false pretenses"
Let's move this game along. They know what they're doing. It's time to hunt scum, not our governor.
Nath'd a bit, perhaps. I don't think there's much harm in our continuing to theorize who the governor might be, but don't hold your breath waiting on him to come forward. I suspect he has his reasons for doing this, and it actually makes a good bit of sense to try this tactic.
Would you prefer the governor to claim or are more interested in moving the game along, even if under as Voxx says "false pretenses"
Let's move this game along. They know what they're doing. It's time to hunt scum, not our governor.
I disagree.
The govener needs to claim. I had Shark as my top suspect, only backing off when I realized he was the Govenor (and then he claimed vanilla ><).
What this means is we cannot waste time gathering our posts, doing PBPAs, only to find out that person was in fact the governor.
Governer should still claim even if they don't think they are likely to be lynched.
Just as an entirely hypothetical example - I want to lynch Shark because I think he's probably mafia with Azreal.
Azreal is governer, but doesn't claim because he doesn't think he's in danger of being lynched. While that may be true, it still causes the rest of town to operate off a false set of assumptions.
Watch it be a mod mistake and there be no Governer this game. I mean, I can't imagine that being plausible in a league game especially but it'd be kind of hilarious.
I'll be home later tonight and do my re-read, but hopefully our townfirm pulls his head out of his ass and claims by then.
Unless Silver is epicly good mafia (Silver, have you been scum in a completed game yet?), Vox and TCM for the win. GG.
Make a case for Silver town.
The case for Silver being town rests far more on what's NOT there, than what is, which is why I'm interested in learning if he's played as scum before. I don't recall seeing a large amount of strong town tells in his history, so I can't confidently discount the possibility of his being scum prior to a careful reread. But on the other hand, I've been watching him like a hawk most of the game, he's been very vocal, pretty casual/natural, pro-active, and I don't recall seeing much of anything that ping'd my scum-dar apart from a very minor blip in that first exchange of ours, where he felt that there wasn't a viable alternative to his saying he was town.
Vox and TCM are on shakier ground. TCM has been a bit slow to offer reads, although that's supposed to be typical for his meta. Vox had that initial claim at the start of the game and I recall him picking a number of fights in a feisty, combative sort-of-way that often stems from a scum mentality.
Stuff tomorrow, bed now. But to quickly answer@Azrael, no, I do not have a scum game yet.
I've got two ongoing games (this one included), and two completed games, both of which were town. One's here, and one's on Darkness, but it was kind of a flop of a game activity-wise.
Alright, so Shark is the govnah, which provides me with the following scenario:
Shark (Gov)
Me (VT)
Az
Voxx
TCM
Two of these people must be scum, and the third is VT.
Let's start with Voxx:
Quote from Voxx »
Vote: Archmage Eternal
This is not a RVS vote.
Also, no-lynching is one of the dumbest things on the planet. We are not no-lynching.
It works in a model vacuum where all lynches and kills are at random, and no player interactions matter - but lynching helps us figure things out and analyse player interactions, making it much stronger than trading a cop check for a free kill for the mafia.
Also, there's no doc. And only one checkable scum.
And yeah.
No.
On an unrelated note, after reading through the posts, examining the role list and rules carefully, I've decided it's time for me to role claim.
I am town, and am either vanilla, or claiming vanilla so I don't get shot.
I see nothing wrong with this.
So, we have a random vote with no backup other than to say that it isn't RVS, followed by a tirade on No-lynching, which I don't think anyone was seriously considering anyway, a comment about there being no doc and a semi-useless cop, and a comment about spending a copious amount of time reading the role list and rules, followed by a claim.
-) AE flipped town, which automatically makes his non-RVS vote with no backup look poor.
-) The No-Lynch bit looks suspiciously like busywork to me. It's "useful" information, but it's meaningless.
-) There's no doc, and the cop is largely useless except to townfirm people. Got it. I think we were all aware of that as soon as we entered the game ad saw the setup.
-) Why specify that you read the rules and such "carefully?" That implies that you spent a larger than normal amount of time on it, which implies that you're putting effort in and therefore are town. Who needs to seem like they're putting effort in without actually doing so? Scum.
-) The claim. Except, as per my conversation with Azrael, that claim is completely meaningless. Nobody would claim anything other than VT in that situation -- or, at least, from a theory standpoint I can't see it.
Quote from Voxx »
Youdon'tsay.jpg
Basically, both the vote on AE - which I actually still support as of this time! And the 'claim' were attempts to get us out of RVS. I don't think some people actually read what I typed. I claimed vanilla, or that I was saying I was vanilla to avoid getting shot as a power role. That's not actually claiming. That's just saying I'm in the game.
In a game this small, RVS will not accomplish much, and there's not much we can do to actually exit RVS unless we get ripped out of it kicking and screaming. I just had Real Life interfere and haven't been able to be around to follow up on things like I expected I'd be able to.
My vote on AE is because he has not even tried to progress the game forwards - with a certain kind of flippancy in RVS that ensures it /stays/ RVS. That's not the mindset that I expect town to be in in a 'serious' game of this size, with relatively strict deadlines for this site.
And this is where all the "Voxx got us out of RVS so he must be town" bull**** came from -- right from his mouth.
I'll admit that I saw, and still CAN see the line here. Scum should want the want to stay in RVS to waste more time, so that the town can do less good analysis and has less to work with. I get that. But in looking back and rereading, I'm coming to agree with AE's counterpoint, in that RVS was already over at the point at which Voxx posted/claimed. This allowed Voxx to swoop in and take massive town cred for doing exactly nothing.
Additionally, the language of his attack on AE in the last paragraph seems designed, rhetorically, with the intent of making AE out in a certain, almost childish light. This then contrasts with Voxx, who is the "grown up" of the pair. I can see the signs here of Voxx knowingly inciting AE. AE can be prone to overreact to certain stimuli from what I've seen, due to his emotional connect with the game, and I see this as Voxx stimulating that response, in the hopes that we would bite (which I of course did).
Quote from Voxx »
Hm.
I don't know what I think about this Void/Shark thing.
Gut says town on town.
Azrael is probably town.
Still want AE dead.
Want input from Silver on Void, Shark and AE.
Well, we know now that his "gut" is right, and that Void/Shark was in fact town on town.
This actually reminds me a little of what Shark did as scum in Checks -- a short, clipped, precise list in place of paragraphical content. Like, you could put bullet points in this post of Voxx's, and it would read like a business document.
Also of relevance here is that I'd been screaming until I was blue in the face that Void was town....but yet Voxx needed me to provide input on Void. To be fair, maybe he just wasn't paying attention, since I'm not sure what the scum motivation behind making me reiterate my thoughts on Void would be.
Quote from Voxx »
So yeah, I think there's been ample time with no counterclaim.
Void is town.
We have approximately 3.5 days to come to a lynch.
No lynching is strictly inferior to lynching, even if we mislynch.
I'm most interested in AE and TCM at the moment. Silver is feeling a bit off as well - the activity levels and.... earnest effort that he displayed in Checks and Balances is not here. It's hard to fake earnestness.
Beat dem war drums!
More noting that No-lynching is terrible. In his first post, it read as okay to me. Here, it seems bloodthirsty. If anyone had suggested No-lynching, then it would be a different story....but nobody had. Why comment on No-lynching, other than confirm in everyones' heads that we need blood? I really, REALLY don't like this.
He echoes the majority opinion here (AE and TCM), without providing anything new on either. He also notes that I'm feeling "off" -- citing activity levels and earnestness. My activity has been as high as possible given that not everyone sits on here 24/7. When there's something to reply to, I reply to it -- as evidenced by my communications throughout the game, and exemplified with Azrael. I'm not going to post just to hear my own voice. As far as earnestness, I have no idea where he's going with that. I've been open and transparent, as per my ethic when playing Mafia. Maybe if he supplied some specific examples, then I might give this more weight -- but it feels like a feeler attack to see if anyone jumps on it, without any legit substance.
Quote from Voxx »
I was actually hoping TCM would be the townfirm, because I was leaning towards an Az/Shark scumteam, with Az making the deciding vote on AE vs. Shark.
I'm not sure what fishing for a counterclaim serves though. Scum are not going to fakeclaim a confirmable role. Like, why demand the real governor claim when he's the only person that hasn't claimed not to be it?
Regardless, we're looking at 2 mafia in TCM, Silver, Azreal from my perspective.
What it does mean is that we had three lynch wagons built up to at least 3 people, and all three are confirmed town.
So there's probably good data in the Void lynch, the Shark lynch, and the AE lynch.
So, @TCM, Silver, Azreal.
Whichever of you three is town knows the the remaining two are mafia. It's just a matter of selling your perspective.
I can't prove that I'm town as vanilla, any more than you can. But I'll answer any questions people have, and read back through to see if anything jumps out at me from that cluster of three names.
If someone is fakeclaiming vanilla as the actual governor, by the way, it's in our best interests for them to speak up, and fast, so that we don't operate under false premises.
~Preview Edit~ Shark, are you officially saying that you are not the governor? Because for that to be the case, the real governor would have had to claim not to be it. Which is kind of annoying, and serve no purpose.
Of interest: this is Voxx's first content toDay. As the night started, Voxx said the following:
Quote from Voxx »
I don't think there's a whole lot more to discuss, realistically.
Once your alignment is confirmed one way or the other, tomorrow should be much more productive. I know who I want to pressure depending on how you flip, but I'm not sure if that's worthwhile discussion - it just helps the mafia optimize the night kill.
So, where's the pressure pending AE's flip? You said you know who you wanted to pressure, but then you never followed up. Instead you made a comment about the governor claim, and then dropped the steaming turd I quoted above.
-) Voxx hammers in repeatedly that "he's town," using new and inventive ways each time. From his perspective, blah blah. Whichever of the remaining three is town, blah blah. He's not explicitly saying, I'm town!!!!, but he's coming as close as he can while getting away with it.
-) "It's just a matter of selling your perspective." Voxx makes it sound like he's confirmed. The two remaining VTs know that they are town, and that Shark is town. Shark knows that he's town. That's all we know. You're as much of a scumspect as anyone else is here, Voxx. You need to sell YOUR perspective too. It's not just a pit fight between me/TCM/Az. This line makes it sound like Voxx is planning on sitting back and just manipulating the puppet strings, and I hate it for that reason.
Summary: I find very little in Voxx that I like from a town perspective. He's been bloodthirsty, but restrained enough to not be obvious about it. He never did give a good reason for the AE wagon -- AE refuted the RVS thing, but by that point he was flailing all over the place, so Voxx didn't need to say anything. He just sat there quietly while AE got lynched.
Scum.
Now, for Azrael:
I'm not going to quote the volume of posts that Azrael and I danced back and forth with early in Day 1. Az came out questioning me very quickly, in what I interpreted to be a probing of both my alignment and my relative skill at mafia. I interpret this as a null tell -- Azrael did "Mafia Sire" me, so to speak, and as such I can easily imagine that he would want to find out how I'm progressing at the game whether from a town OR a scum standpoint. So, this whole exchange is a wash.
His next big post boils down to a vote on Void and a calling of Voxx's claim post town.
He then proceeds to fire off a one-liner pointing out AE's anger. I have to consider this null, although I -want- to assign it ++ scum points, because it served to highlight/underscore AE's tilting, which is what got him lynched.
Silver, I'm not yet certain whether Archmage's anger is more in line with townie indignation at stupidity or scum-rage at being poorly attacked. But I don't think there's too much cause for an activity case at this point.
Ok, here's why we should be killing Void with fire.
Quote from Void »
Interesting start to the game thus far. With there only being 7 players having an RVS that occurred was dangerous. I've learned this from playing on MTGNews before it went down... for good....
The first sentence of this post is out of sync - it doesn't match with the train of thought of the rest of the paragraph/post, and the emotional content is also artificial.
The first sentence is supposed to convey that Void finds the game interesting thus far - that he's intrigued or excited by the game. But apparently, the phenomenon which sparks that interest is the unextraordinary fact that we had a brief RVS stage in a 7-player game. I find it a little hard to believe that Void truly finds the fact that this game, like every other mafia game ever, had a RVS stage all that dangerous or fascinating, and his tone throughout the rest of the post certainly doesn't contain much excitement or keen interest.
The reason that bothers me is that it's boiling down to mouthing something he doesn't actually feel. It's a manufactured, artificial comment, and it's the first thought that he adds to the thread. From the very beginning, he has the mentality that he needs to pretend.
Quote from Void »
Silver's explanation post to Azrael appeared over explanatory from what I remember of his previous posts from Checks and Balances Mafia and from Legendary Samurai Mafia on MTGDarkness. In all fairness though Legendary Samurai Mafia was a bust of a game due to the activity problems and posting content was rather hard to do at times. I need to go back and look at Silver's post from C&B Mafia.
Next, he takes a weak meta shot at Silver for being "over explanatory". Several things I hate about this. For one, weak meta attacks are one of the favorite tactics of scum looking for a cheap way to undermine someone. Another favorite tactic is tossing out a hollow gut-critique like being "over explanatory", which may or may not actually fit the text. Void combines those two red flags in a single attack. No one else in the thread has felt that way about how Silver responded to my queries; Void is reading something there which the town at large doesn't buy, which leads me to think that Void isn't analyzing the thread objectively like the rest of the town, but is instead trolling for ways to weakly sow suspicion.
Last of all - he gives himself an escape hatch to back out of the attack, which is another cliche for unconfident scum.
Quote from Void »
As for TCM's thoughts on a No-Lynch have me wondering what he is looking at for answers, but I don't know what his answers are. The 7 player game I played over on MTGNews was called Cop Mafia or something similar. Basically everyone was a Cop Variant (EG: Insane vs Normal and all other types). However, TCM, I do have a question for you. Why are you trying to find a way to make this game easier based on speculation of the setup? It bothers me since there is minimal room for screwing up and trying to focus on a possible plan rather than analysis.
Seems that Azrael is more focused on teaching or seeing if players know what they are talking about then finding scum.
Circling back to the above, here we have two more very weak criticisms or attacks that don't seem to be justified.
I'm finding it hard to even track the chain of logic on the TCM comment. For some reason, he finds trying "to make this game easier based on speculation" to be scummy? For one, that's not even what TCM was doing, and Void is simply not reading carefully the person he's attacking. Two, there's absolutely nothing wrong with using setup plans to help the town, alongside analysis, and Void seems to be suggesting based on TCM's single post that he's not interest in analysis. As an attack, it's weak, it's not logical, it's not fair - it looks like a second really awful smear attempt.
Same problem with the last paragraph. It seems like most of the town picked up on the information value of my queries - but not Void. Instead, he immediately tries to twist it into yet another weak attempt to cast suspicion, without sincerity, conviction, or any discussion of evidence.
Not too sure on Voxx just yet. Most of it hinges on his responses to questions. I won't move my vote yet, mainly as there is no reason to switch just yet as we are now just barely getting out of RVS phase.
But Voxx's bold move of claiming right out is interesting from any of the possibilities (town vanilla, town PR, or scum). Given that is probably the move that is ending RVS, he appears town at this point.
I do not like yhe inconsistency here.
Vote: SharkFinnigan
Another weak attack, on yet another player - so far he's hit four out of seven in the game, without seeming to have a single town read to this point. He takes a shot at Shark for a supposed inconsistency that actually looks far more like Shark was genuinely thinking over the evidence and arriving at a new opinion at the end of the post.
Quote from Void »
Why did you feel the need to mention VT or PR?
Why did you feel the need to restate your read on Voxx?
Two more follow-up attacks for what seems to me to be completely innocent behavior. Mentioning vanilla townies and power roles? Repeating how you're reading someone? I don't buy that Void is actually genuinely interpreting each of these things as scummy through a townie mental process.
Would you mind explaining why you are voting me? I see that you asked SS about my post, but I haven't seen anything from you.
My only buddies are those of the town.
The last sentence made me chuckle a bit. Very wooden, very perfunctory, and very unconvincing.
Kill it dead.
Quote from Void »
Going with another different style posting, Shark? (IIRC Shark has not numbered anything else in the past) Last time you did something different with your posting you were scum in C&B Mafia.
Other than the weird posting style from Shark I also see one the worst cases of jumping onto a wagon. It's mostly a meta read that is inaccurate since my meta changed due to RL changing on me. (New job for those who don't know and less computer time. A lot less.)
As for not believing Shark is scum... Well I am not sure. I saw an inconsistency in his post and believed adding pressure while question him would get a better response from him. Too say the least, the explanation that Shark provided on Voxx is just weird. I asked about reads and Shark over expands into thinking of VT or PR. If Shark is town, then why would he post about a player being Town and a PR? (Rhetorical) I believe that Shark showed his scum mindset in that post.
Then Shark OMGUS' me.
Then there's this bit of work directed at Shark. There's another instance of an unjustified "labelling" attack, saying that Sharks' posting style has been "weird". (How is it weird? I don't see that, at all)
Then he criticizes Shark for "one of the worst cases of jumping on a wagon", tries to defend himself by discounting Shark's move as a weak meta read, and then apparently forgets that he's supposed to be pretending to be really suspicious of Shark and says he's "not sure" that Shark is really scum. He tops it off by complaining about Shark OMGUS'ing him - even though there's only two votes on him at the time, he's already becoming very defensive and sensitive to pressure.
In sum, Void has been weakly casting unsupported suspicions on everyone in sight, he's using superficial labelling attacks and meta, his reads are unnaturally out of sync with the rest of the town and with reality, he's been nervous under pressure, he's unable to maintain a consistent persona, and he's hyper-sensitive to voting pressure.
String 'em up. Vote: Void.
Then we have this: Azrael's case on Void, who we know to have flipped town.
The really damned annoying thing here is that, honestly, Azrael's case STILL makes sense, even knowing that Void flipping town. This would be a godsend for scum!Az, because this is free busywork. Void did legitimately give off all of these scumtells, and as a result, Azrael comes out looking good here even considering Void's flip.
Quote from Az »
Going purely by odds I'd agree with Voxx, not, Archmage, that a cop for an on-target scum-lynch is a pretty fair trade, and the far safer play. That's worth considering.
But on the other hand, I think we have Void pretty dead-to-rights. It reads like he's given up ("I'm dead either way"), and he's just trying to take down the cop along with him, as any scum would when they're caught red-handed in this kind of setup. If we're certain of our behavioral case, I don't see any reason to serve up the cop on a silver platter just because Void claimed cop on his way to going belly up.
When a genuine townie cop is nailed, the more typical reaction is along the lines of "I told you so", or gritted teeth, or some thing along those lines. It's not a curt throw-away line, a white flag, and fleeing from the thread.
Again, this reads well for Azrael in either role. Scum!Az rejoices because he gets to appear town for free, and Town!Az is reflected nicely here. If Void WAS scum, then this would have played out exactly as Az had foreseen. Of course, he wasn't, and we do have to take that into account.
This post DOES give me a few pauses for concern, though. A few of the "we"s here read a little forced -- "if we're certain of our behavioral case," and so.
Quote from Az »
Hmm. I'm not getting strong scum vibes from any of our potential targets at this point, aside from our apparent cop *grimace*. Seems like some PBPAs are going to be in order. Of anyone, Archmage seems the most likely avenue.
Although...hmm. Void being the cop kind of trashes my initial read on Vox, though. Yeah, I need to regroup and reread.
*think think*
I don't see myself getting behind a Shark wagon at this point though. He's been reading pretty naturally. Silver *could* be a very skilled scum, but nothing he's posted has given me any cause for concern. TCM is a null read. So's Vox, for now. Archmage has been the most emotionally volatile, and he did seem to smell blood in the water with the cop claim.
So, Archmage, TCM, and Vox are on the radar. Silver behind them. And we still have a 2nd power role unclaimed. Running out of time, though.
Consider my vote on Archmage.
Consider that Azrael's initial read on Voxx was town. I don't really follow Az's line of thought here (Void is cop, therefore town, therefore Voxx is less town). It fits in with my worldview, though (that Voxx is scum).
I don't especially like that he just basically /barns the common line of thought, although Voxx wasn't really on the radar Day 1, so I guess that is +town.
Quote from Void »
Azrael Post #44: “that the value of experienced players is that they are better able to go on the offensive against said experienced scum” This not settling with me well. It sounds like Azrael knows who the scum is. I figure that Azrael, being as experienced as he, is wouldn’t slip like so, but I am having difficulty getting past his choice of wording.
Azrael Post #46 and Post #47 comes across as rushed and trying to apply more pressure on me when SS had already stated that he found me to be town based on a meta read from C&B Mafia in Post #42. Not sure if Azrael not paying full attention the thread is indicative of anything, but it something to keep an eye on.
And now, for something completely different! This comes from Void, who is confirmed town via flip.
Of these two, Void's comment on post 44 I find to be valid. Void's other comment bears bringing to the forefront just for general perusal, but I don't agree with it -- Azrael was pushing hard on Void, and when you make a case on someone and you believe them to be scum in your worldview, it can easily lead to that sort of a situation. The language in 44 is admittedly troubling, however, because if the scumteam is Azrael and TCM, that would certainly qualify as an overwhelmingly experienced scumteam compared to the town, and Azrael's wording there IS suggestive.
Quote from Azrael »
Hmm? I'm just talking in hypotheticals here.
Oh, I was aware of SS's views, but I was curious what his interpretation of that specific post would be, if he gave it a second glance. I'd made my own views on it fairly clear at least in vague, general terms, but before moving on to specifics I wanted to gauge SS's take. As one of the more analytical-minded folks in this game and a fairly new quantity, he's been one of the people I've been most interested in sizing up.
....And Azrael's replies to Void's comments.
The hypotheticals defense seems kind of weak to me, and I don't especially like it. At the same time, it's hardly damning...just a slight blemish.
And then his reply RE my thoughts is pretty much spot-on with what I'd expect, and again, remains a null tell, as this could be either town!Az or scum!Az talking.
Then we have Az's hammer of AE, which came very last-second due to super bowl (I'm assuming).
Az's next few posts are in communication with TCM, regarding TCM's read on AE. Pretty boring, and nothing worthy of quoting.
Quote from Az »
Well, I *think* I know what's going on, and we're probably best off proceeding with the day as though the governor doesn't exist, up until it's time to lynch. We can't afford to waste any more time on this silliness, waiting for him to claim.
My best read for scum at the moment, and also, incidentally, my best hunch on our reluctant governor, are both Vox, contradictory as that may seem. I'm short on time at the moment, but I'll see what I can rustle up with a full reread as soon as I can. I'd suggest that everyone else do likewise.
Governor stuff is obviously meaningless at this point. Of relevance: Voxx is also Azrael's highest pick for scum.
Summary: this last bit, along with a general lack of scumtells throughout the game, has me thinking that Azrael is the other VT. If we both believe Voxx to be scum, and obviously I have a conviction that it is so, then it makes it more likely that Azrael is town. I suppose that scum!Azrael could be bussing scum!Voxx for town cred, and then proceed to try to win the game by himself -- but we're at Mate-in-One, here, so I don't see the scum needing to or wanting to make that play. All they have to do is get the town to mislynch here, and they win on the spot.
Town.
Now, to go back through the thread one more time, for TCM.
Quote from TCM »
I think the one game I played with Shark was in Gotham Underground, only getting caught because this jerkhole shot me in the face ( I still don't know if you considered my role, or my playstyle as the reason for targeting me, but eh).
Serious buisness: I have heard that when you have an open set-up with a cop (bonus when there is no roleblocker), you are supposed to no-lynch day 1, to allow the cop a night to figure **** out. There are two problems with this plan in this particular set-up (1000 points to whoever can figure that out).
That being said, are there any recommendations? I have never played with an open setup before, and I am not sure if there is a strategy that we can use. The Godfather is a check to the cop, and the Governor prevents a speedlynch tomorrow, should we mislynch today.
[QUOTE]@Azrael's questioning/@Shark -- I think that he's trying to access my mindset via getting me to talk about non-game specific matters, which makes sense in a way, because theoretically scum would "have their mental shields down," so to speak, if approached about a subject that is not the game at hand, which might allow for an easier read. Note that that's just my opinion, and for all I know, I might be ascribing him too much. He might just be genuinely curious for all I know.
I feel like Azreal was analyzing his responses, and his real interest was in answer number three.
I am waiting on Vox right now, but for the time being (until we get posts going), I will continue watching you very closely).
....****, half my post got choped. Sorry for that (I am going to ask atlseal, if he can merge my post, as to not edit my own post). This should be read before the post above this:
I hate this nested quote thing so much, I refuse to use it, unless absolutely warranted.
Quote from SF »
1. Cop only has a 1/6 chance of getting scum read. With godfather in play, we cannot really clear anyone with cop either.
2. No lynch lets scum dictate kills for N1 and N2 (assuming we dont get a successful read and are forced to NL at 6p 2s).
Yes and no.
The other reason I thought of (after a few hours from my last post) was that at an odd number, the town can't even mislynch once, without a scum victory (I also realized that it was the all cop open set-up where you no-lynch day 1).
Quote from Void »
Why are you trying to find a way to make this game easier based on speculation of the setup? It bothers me since there is minimal room for screwing up and trying to focus on a possible plan rather than analysis.
Right now, there is nothing to really analyze right now, except one post at a time. Give or take, half the posts right now are RVS.
As far as why I am trying to make the game easier? I see an open set-up as a day 1 mass-claim, but the scum don't know who has what role. The idea is: Is there any way the town can get an advantage from knowing this? After further analysis, I am afraid not. Every PR is essentially just a check. This game will be all about analyzing.
Quote from Vox »
On an unrelated note, after reading through the posts, examining the role list and rules carefully, I've decided it's time for me to role claim.
I am town, and am either vanilla, or claiming vanilla so I don't get shot.
I see nothing wrong with this.
Well, for starters. Now the mafia have a 25/33.3% chance of hitting the cop randomly on night kills (where 33.3 is assuming we mislynch a vanilla town player not named you).
What was your motivation for just outright claiming?
This game is all about analyzing, but TCM hasn't done any yet.
Also, he admits that there's nothing in the setup to use as a strategy to give the town an advantage. Shocking.
His comments at Voxx seem like an excuse to bump the interaction scores, as they, again, seem like fluff. Voxx's claim didn't even actually claim anything -- so it's just giving TCM an excuse to talk.
[Out of game: TCM, I must say that I like that you use a different colored font. I might have to start doing that -- it makes it much easier to find your posts when I'm skimming through the thread.]
Quote from TCM »
I have a total of 4 (technically three) posts. I really am pretty slow during day 1, my strength really goes beyond day 1. I have been getting better at that though.
And I am not not speculating the set-up. I am speculating if we (the players) have a strategy that we can use, knowing what the roles are. By the way, that wasn't the only reason I threw that speculation out there.
@Az: Pretty much. Going to 6 tomorrow, means we mislynch, we lose.
Excuses for being slow on Day 1, which is fine. I hear some more of this later, so I won't quote it again. Shark corroborates that TCM does have a slow early-game meta, and I'm fine with that. Null.
Quote from TCM »
I really don't like this position.
You openly stated that you would pretty much vote for either of us, only because our activity is a bit lower than everyone else's? There are only 2 scum in this game, and yet, I believe regardless of which of us flips first, would i be incorrect to assume you would go after the other tomorrow?
Waiting on Void claim for further comment, but I think Azreal's post did a great job of how badly he has been pushing Silve and myself.
This post makes no sense.
On the one hand, he's stating that he doesn't like my position, because he doesn't like my attack, and seems to be suggesting that I'm scum because I'm going after people purely because of their lower activity rates -- which I had already explained wasn't the case.
But then, he comes back in the last line and says that he doesn't like how poorly Void was pushing Silver and himself.
What.
You can't have it both ways -- if you think I'm scum, then fine, but you can't condemn Void for pressuring me (albeit poorly) under that worldview. If I say Voxx is scum, and I BELIEVE Voxx is scum, then I'm not going to condemn someone just because they believe that Voxx is scum because he wears green socks.
That's weak as all hell, but hey, who knows. Maybe only people who are scum wear green socks. It still gets more pressure on target guy I don't like, which is fine in my book. So, why isn't it in yours?
Quote from TCM »
I hate to say it, but as poor as Void has been playing, in a game with only two mislynches, it is the in the cop's best interest to cc if it isn't Void. With only one scum that can be found, the cop isn't even that strong to hold on to. Unless someone has been holding out, we should move on.
Silver seems to be really hellbent on tying myself and AE as scum merely because out of the gates, we apparently "weren't" moving the game along. That said, I read his analysis more as overzealous town, using a tell he believes is ultimately scum, believing he caught one/both of us red-handed.
Shark on the other hand, has been acting a bit weird. I dislike him on that back-and-forth with AE, as I feel he is grasping at straws to paint AE bad in that last post. In addition:
Quote:
@AE: I'm waiting for CC. Otherwise, if he's actually cop, Im not lynching him. Not unvoting until I get confirm. Are you cop? I assume not.
We have a deadline, and he has pretty much said no cc means Void is town. Why not move your vote to someone else? If at any time Void does get a cc (I think everyone has posted post-claim), we move back. It's that simple.
I like my vote where it is right now.
I bet you do (his vote was on Shark, who we now know to be town).
What sticks out here to me, is, no surprise, his comment on me -- which feels to me like a "I'll let it go now, but you're low-hanging fruit and I can attack you whenever I feel like it Tomorrow." He's leaving the door open while he pursues more attractive prey (Shark).
In fact, his comments also smack of the whole "scum caught by bad reasoning" cliche. I fully admitted/still admit that activity-based reasoning is a poor metric to judge someone by, and I also stand by that I didn't really have anything useful to go off of yesterday....we had like 10 pages of content to work with, and that isn't much, at all....especially for Day 1 content. All I had to work with was my gut, and poor arguments. TCM reads like he's offended by my poor arguments, because it caught him but not in a way that he would like to have been caught.
TCM is then quiet for a long stretch, posting by phone near to the deadline to comment that he's at work.
Quote from TCM »
...I would be keeping my vote on Shark, only switching to prevent a no-lynch from happening...
I was also working a shift, with my last post being typed from my phone...
Damn it AE, this is the second time this garbage happened to you. I am sorry I couldn't be more vocal.
Then there's this. The last line is something that Azrael already went into, but it's a randomly very certain town-read on AE out of nowhere. TCM reads very earnestly here, and I don't doubt that he -is- sorry that he couldn't be more vocal to save AE's life....because he's scum, and they don't save townie lives. I have no doubt that TCM would have rather seen Shark die on Day 1, because AE would have been a relatively easy mislynch on Day 2 -- or, alternatively, AE would have kept spouting off about how I'm scum because I confuse him, and with the Governor dead, the scum could just quicklynch me on Day 2 and win.
[Out of game, again -- send me a message sometime, TCM, about how the wisdom tooth extraction goes. I'm going to be undergoing that fairly soon myself, and I'm pretty scared of it.]
TCM leaves off saying that he's going to make a PBPA on me for my pushing of AE's wagon -- to which I say two things:
-) Why not make one for Voxx, who -started- the wagon?
-) If I was scum, do you think I would be so obvious as to push on a townie wagon -that- hard? I may be inexperienced overall, and I may have never been scum, but do you think I'm that stupid? -_-
Scum, but less certain of than Voxx.
So yeah.
I like Azrael as the other VT, and I think that Voxx is most likely to be scum of the remaining candidates. Of Azrael and TCM, I find TCM significantly scummier, but Voxx is far and away more so than TCM. Consider my vote on him (though I'm still not going to place my vote until we're in agreement, just for safety's sake).
Here is my vase for Silver, pbpa style (some won't have links, because I still can't stand the nested quoting thing/it is faster). If you need me to go back and link it I can, but it takes more time:
1st post:
Vote Azrael for getting me to play this damn game.
Null RVS post.
Nah I mean Mafia in general. Some number of months ago, he hit me up when we were posting in CI and said that I should look into trying Mafia. So here I am. First time we've been in a game together, though, and I'm pretty sure that it's as good of a justification for an RVS vote as any __________________
Null
Clearly not
By itself, silver. Ideally, though, I prefer a blend of black and silver with teal or red highlights.
Well, I haven't been scum yet, with two completed games now, and one ongoing. So, I really honestly couldn't tell you =/
How about you?
Back and forth jibberish between himself and Azreal.
I think that two things are very clear: asking someone if they're town at the start of a game is meaningless aside from the reactions gauged therein. Town will say that they're town, and scum will say that they're town. As such, for what you're asking for, the depths of the clarity of my towniness is irrelevant. That's not what you're looking for.
I also think that it's very clear that you don't want to have an RVS, which saddens me, because RVS can be hysterical (even if, in my fledgling sense of mafia theory, I concede that it's a waste of time).
I've played with everyone in here except for you and Cold Monarch (is TCM acceptable?). Shark and I have a habit of thinking that the other is scum, every time we run into each other. Vox is a pretty swell guy, from the one time I've played with him.
Also, there still isn't a vig in this setup. Nor would I attempt to direct you if you were: both because directing power roles is unethical (it assumes that you do not respect the PR's intellect sufficiently to make their own decision), but also because somewhere along the way, I was introducedto the term Aezwolg, so I know that it wouldn't do any good anyway!
This might be the first content post. His first response to how town response seems actually intense. I question why Az asked that question in the first place.
Quote from SF »
I wish I knew.
Archmage Eternal is scum.
also that winky face at the end is supposed to be ; ), as in ;_; )
I specified this one, because I want to show how I saw the AE wagon started getting interested, followed by Vox's clear statement of how it was not an RVS (in a future pbpa to come).
I have a feeling that prerelease weekend is partially to blame for that.
/barn waiting on Voxx.
@Void, if a question is directed to me, I answer it to my fullest capabilities -- you know this, from Checks. If that still looks like overreacting to you, then oh well, I guess =/
@Azrael's questioning/@Shark -- I think that he's trying to access my mindset via getting me to talk about non-game specific matters, which makes sense in a way, because theoretically scum would "have their mental shields down," so to speak, if approached about a subject that is not the game at hand, which might allow for an easier read. Note that that's just my opinion, and for all I know, I might be ascribing him too much. He might just be genuinely curious for all I know.
I find it interesting that the first half of his post really doesn't say much, but his second alignment, he says how he thinks Azreal is accessing his mind, but he doesn't say whether he thinks this is curiosity, or scum hunting. Azreal (I believe) is the most experienced player here. As kind as he is, I have never seen him just shoot the breeze when we start leaving the RVS.
For people not including myself, I would say yes. I fully recognize that most people that play Mafia do not respond the same way to stimuli that I do, and usually if I see someone posting in a similar way to myself, then I'm usually suspicious thereof.
Eh, this feels like a bit of a knee jerk reaction, considering the question came from a confirmed town Void. But then, I kind of agree with this as I can often overexplain, sometimes to the point where my original message gets lost. I suppose this is more nullish, but it still strikes off to me.
FIRST QUOTE:
Quote from Vox »
My vote on AE is because he has not even tried to progress the game forwards - with a certain kind of flippancy in RVS that ensures it /stays/ RVS. That's not the mindset that I expect town to be in in a 'serious' game of this size, with relatively strict deadlines for this site.
And Silver's response:
Voxx's point about AE is well-received, however, I think it's a little early to come to a vote-worthy opinion just based solely off of AE's desire for RVS.
At first is against the AE wagon, despite Vox's reason.
@Shark: why does the player who ends RVS necessarily lend itself towards being town? (Referring to Voxx claiming)
I'm liking Void's play as reminiscent of Checks at this point. I don't like making pronouncements when we're scarcely 3 pages in, but I've liked what I've seen thusfar.
AE seems more aggressive than I remember him being previously -- but that might be because he's not trying to hide a cop role this game.
TCM I'm just watching in general, since I have no prior experience with him.
Both Vox and Void have responded to my theory, and yet, Silver doesn't say anything (good or bad about it). I think he is waiting to get everyone's imput, fearing I met be trying to set a trap (which I was).
So...yeah. That's my thoughts at this point. I really hope this isn't going to turn into another Legendary Samurai -- that game was made miserable by the lack of posting, and since this game is going to be determined almost solely by analysis, this game would be made even worse therein. I'm starting to feel like I'm talking for the sake of talking, so I'm gonna go shut up now and wait for someone else to post :|
A very long winded post, that really doesn't say anything.
Oops, sorry, didn't see this. I'm not entirely sure that I follow your question, so I'll back up and explain my response, and then hopefully you derive what you're looking for out of it.
My stated "clearly" response was meant as a slightly tongue-in-cheek reply to your prompt of, "Are you town." Nobody, town or scum, would state that they were scum in response to that line of questioning -- at least, I can't imagine a circumstance where one would do so. Ergo, by stating "clearly," my intent was to ... not so much mock, but more like ... give a slightly sarcastic "yes" reply. Sarcasm because, again, I can't see a possible world where saying "No, I'm not town," would be the correct play. This is all assuming truthfulness, of course -- I suppose if I replied "Not town," then you would probably assume that I'm stringing you along. I don't see an upside to that, though.
Likewise, I don't think that ignoring the question necessarily accomplishes anything good, either. Scum already know who's town or not, so they don't really care one way or the other -- except that if you ignore the question, they can point out that you're ignoring the question, which would make you an easier mislynch, as the town would naturally be suspicious.
As such, I feel that the only correct play is to provide an affirmative answer, with a hint of sarcasm to probe for a reaction from the questioner.
Make sense?
This back and forth with Az is really making my head hurt.
I've been in two games with Void so far. The first, Checks, he was town, and he played very, obnoxiously aggressively. The second, Legendary Samurai, had some serious activity problems, so it was kind of a bust -- but from what there was, he was scum, and he was playing more genially / laid-back. Two games does not a meta make, and I don't particularly like meta as an argument anyway.
BUT, from what I've seen so far, Void this game matches up more closely with town Void than scum Void. He's someone that I've got my eye on, but I'm not confidant enough to place a vote. Meta suggests town. Now, I need to temper that read with opinions from this individual game -- which is going to take time and more posts, I fear.
Why would you mention this, if you think this is more like his town meta? You wouldn't even be considering a vote if you truly thought he was town...
I've given a ton of input on Void already, and I'm standing by what I've said regarding him thusfar.
I've liked Shark's posts so far this game, for once (lol). He's been active and trying to move the game along, which is not something that I see scum doing given the short duration of the day. The various points that Void have raised have some degree of merit, as Shark has himself expressed, but I don't see that as being anything other than Shark's "natural scumminess," and I'm not concerned about it.
Why is that? I would think with only 6 people to look towards, scum would be actively progressing the game, lest they draw attention to themselves...
At this point, I'm most concerned about the people who haven't been trying to move the game along. This means AE and TCM.
What changed from when Vox originally made that point against AE, until this point?
Given that concern, I would say that I am cautiously in favor of an AE or TCM lynch. AE has been belligerent when approached about moving forward, and TCM has been providing examples and discussion that are largely non-seq to this game, which takes time we don't have to work through.
Because to him (and me) the wagon on him is such garbage, considering the number of posts in game. I could use that same argument to say you and Az have just been shooting the ****, instead of actually scum hunting.
My reasons are entirely non-seq to the game. This is an open set-up. Much like after a mass claim, would it not be best to discuss strategies, especially considering there is no RB to hinder them ?
For now, I will Vote AE.I'm open to changing that to TCM, pending further discussion. I am not interested in lynching Void toDay. Maybe toMorrow depending on how the game progresses, but I'm comfortable with my leaning town read on him thusfar.
Despite trying to move the game forward, he opens that line as a quick get out of jail free card, should the AE wagon turn sour.
Void: if you say AE is scum as well as Shark, how do you interpret their recent exchange? Good faking?
@TCM -- you're much further down on my list than AE is. I don't know your style, and both you and others who know you have stated that you're a slower player on Day 1. I'm perfectly fine taking that at face value, and I look forward to your contributions as the game progresses. AE, though, I'm pretty confidant that I've stuck a nerve there.
...and now, I am suddenly much farther down on his list, after it seems the AE wagon willl turn fruitful.
Hmm.
I actually wouldn't mind having the Governor claim, just so we have a confirmed townie. That narrows the PoE significantly, since we will have 1 confirmed, and the two remaining VTs will know who they are. For the VTs, it becomes a 66/33 shot. (5 people alive, one of whom is themselves, which means 4 suspects. +confirmed makes 3 unknowns, 2 of whom are scum).
Other than the Governor, nobody's claim matters, since everyone else is assumed VT. I will note that I am -not- the Governor, as I would claim in this instance.
TCM's reaction to AE does seem a little strange, but I'm not giving it any points at this juncture, one way or the other.
I'll be looking into Voxx first, hopefully while TCM provides content. __________________
Even I admit if you were not myself, AE, or a player in FTQ Hectea, my interaction would have been strange. Why did you not question me, or even comment why you thought it was strange?
So, let's do some thinknificating.
Governor is either TCM or Shark, I agree. Voxx, myself, and Azrael have all claimed not-it. TCM's "should the governor claim" post was worded suggestively, but I could also see a world wherein Shark is the gov since he suggested the claim in the first place.
So, we have this player list:
TCM
Az
Myself
Voxx
Shark
If TCM is Gov, then we have this:
TCM (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
Shark
Voxx
If Shark is Gov, then we have this:
Shark (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
TCM
Voxx
This suggests to me that at least one of Azrael and Voxx is scum.
Of the two, I'm inclined to say that Voxx is more likely scum than Azrael. Voxx's bizarre opening-post claim seems increasingly bizarre the more I think about it, and he did start the AE tilt-o-matic, which made me convinced that he was scum, as I fully admitted that the whole lack of activity thing was beyond weak.
He calls me/shark confirmed, and seems to be focusing on Vox over Az. This reads to me like distancing, with him going after who ever between us isn't the governor.
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.
I would say Voxx, since I have a deeper conviction that Voxx is scum, but this does give me some slight pause:
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.
If TCM and Voxx are scumbuddies, given the scenario that we're in right now, I'm not sure that TCM calling Voxx out makes much sense. But I might just be seeing shadows as vipers.
I believe that my case is stronger on Voxx, and so I would say Voxx.
Azrael? What's your opinion? Also, what other points did you have? You said that I hit most of the things you were going to say, but most notequals all. What else do you have?
Also, note that I will be V/LA until Monday, due to SCG Edison. As always, I will check in on my phone as much as possible, but I won't be able to make long-winded posts until my return.
I would say Voxx, since I have a deeper conviction that Voxx is scum, but this does give me some slight pause:
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.
If TCM and Voxx are scumbuddies, given the scenario that we're in right now, I'm not sure that TCM calling Voxx out makes much sense. But I might just be seeing shadows as vipers.
I believe that my case is stronger on Voxx, and so I would say Voxx.
Azrael? What's your opinion? Also, what other points did you have? You said that I hit most of the things you were going to say, but most notequals all. What else do you have?
Also, note that I will be V/LA until Monday, due to SCG Edison. As always, I will check in on my phone as much as possible, but I won't be able to make long-winded posts until my return.
So tomorrow I get shot and you have TCM and Az left. What is your strategy to win the game?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I would say Voxx, since I have a deeper conviction that Voxx is scum, but this does give me some slight pause:
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.
If TCM and Voxx are scumbuddies, given the scenario that we're in right now, I'm not sure that TCM calling Voxx out makes much sense. But I might just be seeing shadows as vipers.
I believe that my case is stronger on Voxx, and so I would say Voxx.
Azrael? What's your opinion? Also, what other points did you have? You said that I hit most of the things you were going to say, but most notequals all. What else do you have?
Also, note that I will be V/LA until Monday, due to SCG Edison. As always, I will check in on my phone as much as possible, but I won't be able to make long-winded posts until my return.
So tomorrow I get shot and you have TCM and Az left. What is your strategy to win the game?
Honestly, I haven't been in an endgame situation yet (where it was myself and two other people), so I don't have specific plans and formulations.
I'll reread Azrael and TCM again carefully just to make sure, but I think that at that point, I stick with my reads. Azrael indicated that he agreed with my cases, and I believe him to be town before I would believe TCM. This may be naive, but at some point, in these kinds of situations, it seems that you have to trust to something. I've examined the game and presented my findings. I know myself to be town. I believe Azrael to also be town. So, if Azrael is not town, then we lose.
It feels like a gamble to me, but if there's a way to avoid rolling the dice, I don't see it. Assuming that we get a Tomorrow, the same situation will occur for each set of players.
If I were the one to be shot instead, Shark, what would -you- do tomorrow? Do you see something that I don't?
TCM attacking Silver as hard as he has makes me want to discount that as a possibility - even though realistically I shouldn't. The mafia only need one mislynch to win, and it doesn't matter if it happens today, or tomorrow.
So driving the lynch through on your teammate today, only to coast to the easy mislynch on anyone else tomorrow is valid, and is why my paranoia is kicking in.
If I had to rank the three worlds, it'd be as follows, though.
Silver/AZ > Az/TCM > TCM/Silver.
Whichhhh kind of makes me want to lynch Azreal today.
The only way he isn't mafia is if TCM is just bussing the hell out of Silver, and
I don't think that's the case?
But mannnn the buddying between Silver and Az is so blatant that I almost don't want to think that's the reality we're in either.
I could kind of see TCM/Az, I guess? Both of them supporting different mislynches in hopes that one of them manages to convince Shark?
I think it's Shark/Az, though.
Sorry for the disjointedness of this post, was kind of thinking out loud as I tried to walk myself through the possibilities. I'll go back through the thread and point out the key things that led me to this end result shortly - but PBPA is not something I generally approve of.
TCM has been posting some analysis and studying the thread in detail, and although I think his analysis on Silver is awfully weak stuff, its *possible* he might be putting in some token level of legitimate effort now that we're in the end-game. He's at least trying to back up his reads.
Vox has been a lot more fast and loose with his accusations. No one has really had much of a problem with how myself or Silver have been playing. Then, all of a sudden, when we start gunning for his lynch he jumps off the Silver/Az-are-cool wagon and says we're both scum together. Other than the fact that now we both agree that Vox should be lynched, I don't see what changed his mind. He doesn't go into any depth on material from previous days - he just throws out a bunch of off-the-cuff OMGUS comments designed to deflect back onto his attackers.
But I don't think it's feasible for it to come down to a 1 vs. 1 world, where the Governer is most powerful. With the cop also being revealed, it removes the possibility of 2 townfirms vs. 1 unfirmed at 3 remaining.
So
I guess I'm okay with a claim?
I am not the governer.
It's one of TCM or Shark, neither of who I've been willing to write off as town without the claim. So I suppose go ahead and claim, and I'll do a thorough re-read to try and nail down possible worlds.
Governor is either TCM or Shark, I agree. Voxx, myself, and Azrael have all claimed not-it. TCM's "should the governor claim" post was worded suggestively, but I could also see a world wherein Shark is the gov since he suggested the claim in the first place.
So, we have this player list:
TCM
Az
Myself
Voxx
Shark
If TCM is Gov, then we have this:
TCM (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
Shark
Voxx
If Shark is Gov, then we have this:
Shark (Gov)
Myself (VT)
Az
TCM
Voxx
This suggests to me that at least one of Azrael and Voxx is scum.
Of the two, I'm inclined to say that Voxx is more likely scum than Azrael. Voxx's bizarre opening-post claim seems increasingly bizarre the more I think about it, and he did start the AE tilt-o-matic, which made me convinced that he was scum, as I fully admitted that the whole lack of activity thing was beyond weak.
Governor can prevent the quicklynch you know.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Derp. Brb facepalm.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
If you're not claiming it, then yes. The language that he uses when referring to the governor is very careful....similar to what one would use when trying to refer to yourself in the 3rd person without actually doing so. Also, he didn't explicitly state that he is -not- claiming Governor, which everyone but you and TCM have done.
Note that TCM is the only player alive that did not vote AE.
So why would TCM be governor if I am not?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Both actually. Which means there is a 2 in 3 chance of hitting scum.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
So I assume you are not the governor, given your behavior, so who in your mind is governor and scum on the AE wagon?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
My vote on you would have done the trick as far as who I saw the between of you. I also couldn't do more (and I wish my posts reflected this), but the post I did a few hours before was from my phone. I can barely post there, let alone, quote. I was on break, so I really couldn't make a pitch, without getting into trouble.
Also @ your last post: This is exactly why I thought you were scum. It seems clear you aren't paying attention. The reason Silver knows it is one of us is because everyone aside from us claimed vanilla....
That said, I was wrong. Lead the way and get your head into the game.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
As far as the scum on AE's wagon, I would have to go Silver and...I don't know.
I was pretty stuck on you for scum, and Silv for his pushing of the AE wagon. I will have to reread Vox and Az before I have a confidant read on the other.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
What do the last 2 statements imply? I don't understand them?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
This one:
.
There are 5 players. 3 claimed vanilla. Me and you are the two that have said nothing. Therefore, one us is the govenor. How did you not grasp that from Silver's post?
And this one:
I am vanilla, therefore you are the Govenor by default. Meaning you are confirmed town, and the only player everyone knows is working from a town perspective.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Requoting for emphasis
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I'm not sure what fishing for a counterclaim serves though. Scum are not going to fakeclaim a confirmable role. Like, why demand the real governor claim when he's the only person that hasn't claimed not to be it?
Regardless, we're looking at 2 mafia in TCM, Silver, Azreal from my perspective.
What it does mean is that we had three lynch wagons built up to at least 3 people, and all three are confirmed town.
So there's probably good data in the Void lynch, the Shark lynch, and the AE lynch.
So, @TCM, Silver, Azreal.
Whichever of you three is town knows the the remaining two are mafia. It's just a matter of selling your perspective.
I can't prove that I'm town as vanilla, any more than you can. But I'll answer any questions people have, and read back through to see if anything jumps out at me from that cluster of three names.
If someone is fakeclaiming vanilla as the actual governor, by the way, it's in our best interests for them to speak up, and fast, so that we don't operate under false premises.
~Preview Edit~ Shark, are you officially saying that you are not the governor? Because for that to be the case, the real governor would have had to claim not to be it. Which is kind of annoying, and serve no purpose.
My best read for scum at the moment, and also, incidentally, my best hunch on our reluctant governor, are both Vox, contradictory as that may seem. I'm short on time at the moment, but I'll see what I can rustle up with a full reread as soon as I can. I'd suggest that everyone else do likewise.
Would you prefer the governor to claim or are more interested in moving the game along, even if under as Voxx says "false pretenses"
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
And I'm pretty annoyed at whoever is trying to play games with not claiming at this point.
Like, there are very limited scenarios where the role is going to be genuinely useful beyond townfirming today. And townfirming someone helps rule out possible scumteams, and makes other people more or less likely scum, even if you are not in danger of being lynched.
So stop being intentionally obstructive and claim.
I want to be able to know with 100% certainty that 2 out of 3 people are mafia, and then hunt back to the thread to make the best decision possible, and then sell it.
Let's move this game along. They know what they're doing. It's time to hunt scum, not our governor.
I disagree.
The govener needs to claim. I had Shark as my top suspect, only backing off when I realized he was the Govenor (and then he claimed vanilla ><).
What this means is we cannot waste time gathering our posts, doing PBPAs, only to find out that person was in fact the governor.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Just as an entirely hypothetical example - I want to lynch Shark because I think he's probably mafia with Azreal.
Azreal is governer, but doesn't claim because he doesn't think he's in danger of being lynched. While that may be true, it still causes the rest of town to operate off a false set of assumptions.
Watch it be a mod mistake and there be no Governer this game. I mean, I can't imagine that being plausible in a league game especially but it'd be kind of hilarious.
I'll be home later tonight and do my re-read, but hopefully our townfirm pulls his head out of his ass and claims by then.
I am governor. I never said I wasn't (see my wording). I did it hoping primarily someone going to cc but I actually got very useful reads.
I was pretty obv but whatever, I have the game won in my mind.
So go squabble and tell me who else is town with you.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Unless Silver is epicly good mafia (Silver, have you been scum in a completed game yet?), Vox and TCM for the win. GG.
Make a case for Silver town.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Also, I will be looking at Vox/Az as well.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The case for Silver being town rests far more on what's NOT there, than what is, which is why I'm interested in learning if he's played as scum before. I don't recall seeing a large amount of strong town tells in his history, so I can't confidently discount the possibility of his being scum prior to a careful reread. But on the other hand, I've been watching him like a hawk most of the game, he's been very vocal, pretty casual/natural, pro-active, and I don't recall seeing much of anything that ping'd my scum-dar apart from a very minor blip in that first exchange of ours, where he felt that there wasn't a viable alternative to his saying he was town.
Vox and TCM are on shakier ground. TCM has been a bit slow to offer reads, although that's supposed to be typical for his meta. Vox had that initial claim at the start of the game and I recall him picking a number of fights in a feisty, combative sort-of-way that often stems from a scum mentality.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I've got two ongoing games (this one included), and two completed games, both of which were town. One's here, and one's on Darkness, but it was kind of a flop of a game activity-wise.
Shark (Gov)
Me (VT)
Az
Voxx
TCM
Two of these people must be scum, and the third is VT.
Let's start with Voxx:
So, we have a random vote with no backup other than to say that it isn't RVS, followed by a tirade on No-lynching, which I don't think anyone was seriously considering anyway, a comment about there being no doc and a semi-useless cop, and a comment about spending a copious amount of time reading the role list and rules, followed by a claim.
-) AE flipped town, which automatically makes his non-RVS vote with no backup look poor.
-) The No-Lynch bit looks suspiciously like busywork to me. It's "useful" information, but it's meaningless.
-) There's no doc, and the cop is largely useless except to townfirm people. Got it. I think we were all aware of that as soon as we entered the game ad saw the setup.
-) Why specify that you read the rules and such "carefully?" That implies that you spent a larger than normal amount of time on it, which implies that you're putting effort in and therefore are town. Who needs to seem like they're putting effort in without actually doing so? Scum.
-) The claim. Except, as per my conversation with Azrael, that claim is completely meaningless. Nobody would claim anything other than VT in that situation -- or, at least, from a theory standpoint I can't see it.
And this is where all the "Voxx got us out of RVS so he must be town" bull**** came from -- right from his mouth.
I'll admit that I saw, and still CAN see the line here. Scum should want the want to stay in RVS to waste more time, so that the town can do less good analysis and has less to work with. I get that. But in looking back and rereading, I'm coming to agree with AE's counterpoint, in that RVS was already over at the point at which Voxx posted/claimed. This allowed Voxx to swoop in and take massive town cred for doing exactly nothing.
Additionally, the language of his attack on AE in the last paragraph seems designed, rhetorically, with the intent of making AE out in a certain, almost childish light. This then contrasts with Voxx, who is the "grown up" of the pair. I can see the signs here of Voxx knowingly inciting AE. AE can be prone to overreact to certain stimuli from what I've seen, due to his emotional connect with the game, and I see this as Voxx stimulating that response, in the hopes that we would bite (which I of course did).
Well, we know now that his "gut" is right, and that Void/Shark was in fact town on town.
This actually reminds me a little of what Shark did as scum in Checks -- a short, clipped, precise list in place of paragraphical content. Like, you could put bullet points in this post of Voxx's, and it would read like a business document.
Also of relevance here is that I'd been screaming until I was blue in the face that Void was town....but yet Voxx needed me to provide input on Void. To be fair, maybe he just wasn't paying attention, since I'm not sure what the scum motivation behind making me reiterate my thoughts on Void would be.
Beat dem war drums!
More noting that No-lynching is terrible. In his first post, it read as okay to me. Here, it seems bloodthirsty. If anyone had suggested No-lynching, then it would be a different story....but nobody had. Why comment on No-lynching, other than confirm in everyones' heads that we need blood? I really, REALLY don't like this.
He echoes the majority opinion here (AE and TCM), without providing anything new on either. He also notes that I'm feeling "off" -- citing activity levels and earnestness. My activity has been as high as possible given that not everyone sits on here 24/7. When there's something to reply to, I reply to it -- as evidenced by my communications throughout the game, and exemplified with Azrael. I'm not going to post just to hear my own voice. As far as earnestness, I have no idea where he's going with that. I've been open and transparent, as per my ethic when playing Mafia. Maybe if he supplied some specific examples, then I might give this more weight -- but it feels like a feeler attack to see if anyone jumps on it, without any legit substance.
Of interest: this is Voxx's first content toDay. As the night started, Voxx said the following:
So, where's the pressure pending AE's flip? You said you know who you wanted to pressure, but then you never followed up. Instead you made a comment about the governor claim, and then dropped the steaming turd I quoted above.
-) Voxx hammers in repeatedly that "he's town," using new and inventive ways each time. From his perspective, blah blah. Whichever of the remaining three is town, blah blah. He's not explicitly saying, I'm town!!!!, but he's coming as close as he can while getting away with it.
-) "It's just a matter of selling your perspective." Voxx makes it sound like he's confirmed. The two remaining VTs know that they are town, and that Shark is town. Shark knows that he's town. That's all we know. You're as much of a scumspect as anyone else is here, Voxx. You need to sell YOUR perspective too. It's not just a pit fight between me/TCM/Az. This line makes it sound like Voxx is planning on sitting back and just manipulating the puppet strings, and I hate it for that reason.
Summary: I find very little in Voxx that I like from a town perspective. He's been bloodthirsty, but restrained enough to not be obvious about it. He never did give a good reason for the AE wagon -- AE refuted the RVS thing, but by that point he was flailing all over the place, so Voxx didn't need to say anything. He just sat there quietly while AE got lynched.
Scum.
Now, for Azrael:
I'm not going to quote the volume of posts that Azrael and I danced back and forth with early in Day 1. Az came out questioning me very quickly, in what I interpreted to be a probing of both my alignment and my relative skill at mafia. I interpret this as a null tell -- Azrael did "Mafia Sire" me, so to speak, and as such I can easily imagine that he would want to find out how I'm progressing at the game whether from a town OR a scum standpoint. So, this whole exchange is a wash.
His next big post boils down to a vote on Void and a calling of Voxx's claim post town.
He then proceeds to fire off a one-liner pointing out AE's anger. I have to consider this null, although I -want- to assign it ++ scum points, because it served to highlight/underscore AE's tilting, which is what got him lynched.
Then we have this: Azrael's case on Void, who we know to have flipped town.
The really damned annoying thing here is that, honestly, Azrael's case STILL makes sense, even knowing that Void flipping town. This would be a godsend for scum!Az, because this is free busywork. Void did legitimately give off all of these scumtells, and as a result, Azrael comes out looking good here even considering Void's flip.
This game is all about analyzing, but TCM hasn't done any yet.
Also, he admits that there's nothing in the setup to use as a strategy to give the town an advantage. Shocking.
His comments at Voxx seem like an excuse to bump the interaction scores, as they, again, seem like fluff. Voxx's claim didn't even actually claim anything -- so it's just giving TCM an excuse to talk.
[Out of game: TCM, I must say that I like that you use a different colored font. I might have to start doing that -- it makes it much easier to find your posts when I'm skimming through the thread.]
Excuses for being slow on Day 1, which is fine. I hear some more of this later, so I won't quote it again. Shark corroborates that TCM does have a slow early-game meta, and I'm fine with that. Null.
This post makes no sense.
On the one hand, he's stating that he doesn't like my position, because he doesn't like my attack, and seems to be suggesting that I'm scum because I'm going after people purely because of their lower activity rates -- which I had already explained wasn't the case.
But then, he comes back in the last line and says that he doesn't like how poorly Void was pushing Silver and himself.
What.
You can't have it both ways -- if you think I'm scum, then fine, but you can't condemn Void for pressuring me (albeit poorly) under that worldview. If I say Voxx is scum, and I BELIEVE Voxx is scum, then I'm not going to condemn someone just because they believe that Voxx is scum because he wears green socks.
That's weak as all hell, but hey, who knows. Maybe only people who are scum wear green socks. It still gets more pressure on target guy I don't like, which is fine in my book. So, why isn't it in yours?
I bet you do (his vote was on Shark, who we now know to be town).
What sticks out here to me, is, no surprise, his comment on me -- which feels to me like a "I'll let it go now, but you're low-hanging fruit and I can attack you whenever I feel like it Tomorrow." He's leaving the door open while he pursues more attractive prey (Shark).
In fact, his comments also smack of the whole "scum caught by bad reasoning" cliche. I fully admitted/still admit that activity-based reasoning is a poor metric to judge someone by, and I also stand by that I didn't really have anything useful to go off of yesterday....we had like 10 pages of content to work with, and that isn't much, at all....especially for Day 1 content. All I had to work with was my gut, and poor arguments. TCM reads like he's offended by my poor arguments, because it caught him but not in a way that he would like to have been caught.
TCM is then quiet for a long stretch, posting by phone near to the deadline to comment that he's at work.
Then there's this. The last line is something that Azrael already went into, but it's a randomly very certain town-read on AE out of nowhere. TCM reads very earnestly here, and I don't doubt that he -is- sorry that he couldn't be more vocal to save AE's life....because he's scum, and they don't save townie lives. I have no doubt that TCM would have rather seen Shark die on Day 1, because AE would have been a relatively easy mislynch on Day 2 -- or, alternatively, AE would have kept spouting off about how I'm scum because I confuse him, and with the Governor dead, the scum could just quicklynch me on Day 2 and win.
[Out of game, again -- send me a message sometime, TCM, about how the wisdom tooth extraction goes. I'm going to be undergoing that fairly soon myself, and I'm pretty scared of it.]
TCM leaves off saying that he's going to make a PBPA on me for my pushing of AE's wagon -- to which I say two things:
-) Why not make one for Voxx, who -started- the wagon?
-) If I was scum, do you think I would be so obvious as to push on a townie wagon -that- hard? I may be inexperienced overall, and I may have never been scum, but do you think I'm that stupid? -_-
Scum, but less certain of than Voxx.
So yeah.
I like Azrael as the other VT, and I think that Voxx is most likely to be scum of the remaining candidates. Of Azrael and TCM, I find TCM significantly scummier, but Voxx is far and away more so than TCM. Consider my vote on him (though I'm still not going to place my vote until we're in agreement, just for safety's sake).
I think we've got this.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I will gather my thoughts tomorrow. Scout's honor.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I don't work tomorrow, and will be around.
Spoiler: I think Az and Silver are the remaining two mafia, and are pushing hard in a coordinated attempt to generate the last mislynch they need.
Interesting theory. Love for you to prove it
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
1st post:
Null RVS post.
Null
Back and forth jibberish between himself and Azreal.
This might be the first content post. His first response to how town response seems actually intense. I question why Az asked that question in the first place.
I specified this one, because I want to show how I saw the AE wagon started getting interested, followed by Vox's clear statement of how it was not an RVS (in a future pbpa to come).
I find it interesting that the first half of his post really doesn't say much, but his second alignment, he says how he thinks Azreal is accessing his mind, but he doesn't say whether he thinks this is curiosity, or scum hunting. Azreal (I believe) is the most experienced player here. As kind as he is, I have never seen him just shoot the breeze when we start leaving the RVS.
Eh, this feels like a bit of a knee jerk reaction, considering the question came from a confirmed town Void. But then, I kind of agree with this as I can often overexplain, sometimes to the point where my original message gets lost. I suppose this is more nullish, but it still strikes off to me.
FIRST QUOTE:
And Silver's response:
Both Vox and Void have responded to my theory, and yet, Silver doesn't say anything (good or bad about it). I think he is waiting to get everyone's imput, fearing I met be trying to set a trap (which I was).
A very long winded post, that really doesn't say anything.
This back and forth with Az is really making my head hurt.
Why would you mention this, if you think this is more like his town meta? You wouldn't even be considering a vote if you truly thought he was town...
Why is that? I would think with only 6 people to look towards, scum would be actively progressing the game, lest they draw attention to themselves...
What changed from when Vox originally made that point against AE, until this point?
Because to him (and me) the wagon on him is such garbage, considering the number of posts in game. I could use that same argument to say you and Az have just been shooting the ****, instead of actually scum hunting.
My reasons are entirely non-seq to the game. This is an open set-up. Much like after a mass claim, would it not be best to discuss strategies, especially considering there is no RB to hinder them ?
Despite trying to move the game forward, he opens that line as a quick get out of jail free card, should the AE wagon turn sour.
Void: if you say AE is scum as well as Shark, how do you interpret their recent exchange? Good faking?
...and now, I am suddenly much farther down on his list, after it seems the AE wagon willl turn fruitful.
Even I admit if you were not myself, AE, or a player in FTQ Hectea, my interaction would have been strange. Why did you not question me, or even comment why you thought it was strange?
He calls me/shark confirmed, and seems to be focusing on Vox over Az. This reads to me like distancing, with him going after who ever between us isn't the governor.
I will try to comment on his response towards me tomorrow, and focus on vox. Betweeen Vox and Az, I am leaning more towards Vox as scum, but that right now is strictly based on his interaction with Silver.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
If TCM and Voxx are scumbuddies, given the scenario that we're in right now, I'm not sure that TCM calling Voxx out makes much sense. But I might just be seeing shadows as vipers.
I believe that my case is stronger on Voxx, and so I would say Voxx.
Azrael? What's your opinion? Also, what other points did you have? You said that I hit most of the things you were going to say, but most notequals all. What else do you have?
Also, note that I will be V/LA until Monday, due to SCG Edison. As always, I will check in on my phone as much as possible, but I won't be able to make long-winded posts until my return.
So tomorrow I get shot and you have TCM and Az left. What is your strategy to win the game?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Honestly, I haven't been in an endgame situation yet (where it was myself and two other people), so I don't have specific plans and formulations.
I'll reread Azrael and TCM again carefully just to make sure, but I think that at that point, I stick with my reads. Azrael indicated that he agreed with my cases, and I believe him to be town before I would believe TCM. This may be naive, but at some point, in these kinds of situations, it seems that you have to trust to something. I've examined the game and presented my findings. I know myself to be town. I believe Azrael to also be town. So, if Azrael is not town, then we lose.
It feels like a gamble to me, but if there's a way to avoid rolling the dice, I don't see it. Assuming that we get a Tomorrow, the same situation will occur for each set of players.
If I were the one to be shot instead, Shark, what would -you- do tomorrow? Do you see something that I don't?
Basically, there's three possible scum teams.
Silver/Azreal.
Silver/TCM.
Azreal/TCM.
TCM attacking Silver as hard as he has makes me want to discount that as a possibility - even though realistically I shouldn't. The mafia only need one mislynch to win, and it doesn't matter if it happens today, or tomorrow.
So driving the lynch through on your teammate today, only to coast to the easy mislynch on anyone else tomorrow is valid, and is why my paranoia is kicking in.
If I had to rank the three worlds, it'd be as follows, though.
Silver/AZ > Az/TCM > TCM/Silver.
Whichhhh kind of makes me want to lynch Azreal today.
The only way he isn't mafia is if TCM is just bussing the hell out of Silver, and
I don't think that's the case?
But mannnn the buddying between Silver and Az is so blatant that I almost don't want to think that's the reality we're in either.
I could kind of see TCM/Az, I guess? Both of them supporting different mislynches in hopes that one of them manages to convince Shark?
I think it's Shark/Az, though.
Sorry for the disjointedness of this post, was kind of thinking out loud as I tried to walk myself through the possibilities. I'll go back through the thread and point out the key things that led me to this end result shortly - but PBPA is not something I generally approve of.
I keep switching your names every time I type. It's getting annoying.
TCM has been posting some analysis and studying the thread in detail, and although I think his analysis on Silver is awfully weak stuff, its *possible* he might be putting in some token level of legitimate effort now that we're in the end-game. He's at least trying to back up his reads.
Vox has been a lot more fast and loose with his accusations. No one has really had much of a problem with how myself or Silver have been playing. Then, all of a sudden, when we start gunning for his lynch he jumps off the Silver/Az-are-cool wagon and says we're both scum together. Other than the fact that now we both agree that Vox should be lynched, I don't see what changed his mind. He doesn't go into any depth on material from previous days - he just throws out a bunch of off-the-cuff OMGUS comments designed to deflect back onto his attackers.