Statement: That's of interest to me. Here, I don't think that would happen. It would be considered bastardly in most cases.
I'm gonna go ahead and believe that the machine misread the rules and did not pourposfully try to lead the town astray. Townie posting suggests the same.
Vishamons rvs-unvote seems forced and unnecessary. Could be inexperience with the format, like lucid in office mafia (iirc). Similar oddities due to rl mafia-xp bur first time in forums.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Ah, OK, so I was just supposed to blindly follow it without giving it any thoughts? OK, noted.
Am I supposed to do it with anything throughout the whole game?
I'm not fond of you saying you like the plan but going out of the way to clarify you need to still think it through. It's like you felt like you needed to give yourself an opt out clause.
It isn't a complicated plan and if someone realizes a fatal flaw in it, saying you liked it earlier isn't a contract bound in blood. What particularly did you see good about it that still confused you that you need to think over?
I'm not fond of you saying you like the plan but going out of the way to clarify you need to still think it through. It's like you felt like you needed to give yourself an opt out clause.
It isn't a complicated plan and if someone realizes a fatal flaw in it, saying you liked it earlier isn't a contract bound in blood. What particularly did you see good about it that still confused you that you need to think over?
I didn't say I like it. I said it looks good but I need to mull it over.
The plan looked reasonable but I needed to consider its nuances to see whether it can't backfire somehow because I just came to thread expecting just RVS and also because I suck in such plans so I am careful about them. Call me slow-thinker or something but I felt like I need to consider it a bit more. End of story.
If it isn't complicated plan and comitting to it means "nothing" why would I feel need to opt out of it? If comitting to it isn't big deal why thinking about it is?
Yeah, no. My theory? You're holding out for an argument help to weasel out of the town controlling the mafia NK and denying the double-shot.
I didn't say I like it. I said it looks good but I need to mull it over.
The plan looked reasonable but I needed to consider its nuances to see whether it can't backfire somehow because I just came to thread expecting just RVS and also because I suck in such plans so I am careful about them. Call me slow-thinker or something but I felt like I need to consider it a bit more. End of story.
If it isn't complicated plan and comitting to it means "nothing" why would I feel need to opt out of it? If comitting to it isn't big deal why thinking about it is?
Why so harsh with the bolded? It's not like you've been asked over and voer again.
Audinho: We're just getting started, there's no need to start hunting out the lurkers.
Valid point, I'm just making note of it. Much easier if everyone says something. I also thought that minis were faster than other games, but that's probably my own misconception of the format. (Faster like in closer to epicmafia than a basic).
I am also suspicious of Vitek, but Vishamon has yet to sway me away from voting him, hence vote stays.
I think we all agree that we really must not rush a lynch this game until we've decided where to go, or will we have a twilight post-lynch to decide that? Post-lynch, pre-flip that would be (or else the double vote/no-vote area would be moot).
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
I say send only two people to the underworld (our top two suspects). Everyone else in Jail. Four is unneedingly too many and if we send both scum we will find two scum.
I say send only two people to the underworld (our top two suspects). Everyone else in Jail. Four is unneedingly too many and if we send both scum we will find two scum.
Unvote, Vote Guardman
Mafia can simply choose to not kill two people. Then you would have people convinced that these two are 'confirmed town' when it could definitely not be the case.
Mafia can simply choose to not kill two people. Then you would have people convinced that these two are 'confirmed town' when it could definitely not be the case.
First I think you are misunderstanding how the Underworld works. The Mafia only has two kills if nobody, only 1 person, or the entire town is in the Underworld. If those conditions aren't met then the mafia can only kill 1 person in the underworld, regardless of alignment. Therefore sending only two people in is the best course of action.
1. If the two people are the people we most suspect then we are probably going to lynch them (or at the least still suspect them) anyway regardless of if they aren't nightkilled this way. If one of them is nightkilled then we just found out the alignment of a top suspect.
2. Or then we won't have a nightkill. Which is good for the town.
Therefore sending in two top suspects is good for the town no matter what.
Here is the breakdown if we send 2 people:
Two Town: one of them dies. They pop up town. Our "top suspect" will always be town in this case.
One Town: The one mafia member stays in default. The mafia can at this point NK two people. Instead they choose only to kill the townie in jail (to convince us of the above scenario).
Zero Town: This one may result in no NK, since there isn't really any way for them to hide themselves. They might both go to Revolution Town to ensure they don't die day 2? It's tough to say. If we were to use this plan this is the most desirable outcome, but also least likely, which is why I don't really like it.
Additionally, if we send just two people, any townies that decide to be brave/heroic/stupid and go to the underworld as well, the mafia will receive a list of names of who they can kill that night presumably. One of them could false claim location cop and try to frame a townie for lying, though I don't really see why we would lynch for that on day 2, but they might wait until late game. This last bit is all speculation...
Sending Three People:
Three Town: Mafia gets a NK.
Two Town: Mafia gets a NK.
One Town: Mafia gets a NK (possibly two, but then we know the remaining three are all mafia, this will never happen.)
Zero Town: Possible no NK, see above.
Send Two players to Underworld.
Other players spread out between the three other zones.
I think this plan is the haziest, as it involves individual cunning and deceit, and a fair bit of WIFOM. I don't like this plan, it is the least helpful to town. Remember, as long as two players go to the underworld, everyone else is safe from NK in jail, so power roles don't need to go anywhere else for protection.
Now that I look at these plans, I think Guardman might actually have the best one... but I'm no good with probabilities, anyone feel like adding numbers to these options?
Unvote Guardman
I am in such a whimsical mood today.
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Which means if we send two player and one of them dies, the second player isn't cleared. No need to get it all complicated and WIFOMy in your head.
Right, it means we should keep an eye on them. If NK's are decided in a similar way on other nights, we can keep sending them to the NK zone...and if they keep living it would become more and more suspicious.
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Some roles have an incentive to go to specific places (see the description of the mostly vanilla role); I'm giving them room to do that.
I was actually going to bring this up, but I decided not to, since it's total flavor gaming.What if mafia can't stay in the default location, or else they are penalized in some way? It is jail, after all. Unfortunately, this is pure speculation and there's no way to test it, but it would definitely help if it was true.
What difference does what he is really thinking make?
This completely generic statement ("oh no I can't read Azrael") serves no purpose other than to pad your post. I don't like it, we're only 60-ish posts in and you're already trying to look inconspicuous.
Vote: WoD[/FONT]
Easy, tiger.
What difference does his thinking make? All the difference. Surely you've played mafia before
I'm just suspicious about going to any of the locations tonight, as I'm sure that certain players will gain powers when they go to certain locations.
First I think you are misunderstanding how the Underworld works. The Mafia only has two kills if nobody, only 1 person, or the entire town is in the Underworld. If those conditions aren't met then the mafia can only kill 1 person in the underworld, regardless of alignment. Therefore sending only two people in is the best course of action.
1. If the two people are the people we most suspect then we are probably going to lynch them (or at the least still suspect them) anyway regardless of if they aren't nightkilled this way. If one of them is nightkilled then we just found out the alignment of a top suspect.
2. Or then we won't have a nightkill. Which is good for the town.
Therefore sending in two top suspects is good for the town no matter what.
Bolded suggests Guardsman is scum... Am I reading into that too far?
What's hard to grasp Proph? We play mafia like normal until we decide whom to lynch, then each player picks a place to go which affects the next day under a set of rules. The places are taken from different boardgames. I'm also pretty certan that no matter whose plan we follow day 2 is going to be loaded with wifom.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
...anyone feel like adding numbers to these options?
I took the liberty of doing the math to get some probabilitynumbers out of the different plans. It's been a while since I've done any probability-calculations, but I think I'm doing it correctly. Anyone who knows their math and finds this to be wrong, please correct it.
We have 12 players totally, and I'm assuming there are 3 scum.
All calculations are determening the odds of how many players per fragment will go to The gates of the Underworld.
Two players (Guardmans plan):
Two town: 9/12 * 8/11 = 0,75 * 0,72 = 0,54 = 54%
One town, one scum: 9/12 * 3/11 = 0,75 * 0,27 = 0,20 = 20%
I see that there is something I've forgotten about this math, as the percentages just doesn't add up to 100. Does anyone know how to correct this?
I do believe that the end percentages for negative outcomes are correct though.
What this tells us is that ZeDorkSlipeurs plan is extremely safe, Azraels plan is very safe, and Guardmans plan is about 3/4 safe. The important point is that the more players we send to The gates of the Underworld, the more choices we give scum for targeting. Hence it seems that while Azraels and ZeDorkSlipeurs plan have almost the same amount of safety, ZeDorkSlipeurs is giving scum one additional NK-choice. We probably don't want that.
Also, the less players we send the more information we are likely to get if the negative outcome is achieved and scum decides to use its double NK.(Guardmans plan delivering two scum into our hands, Azrael 2/3 shot at scum, ZeDorkSlipeurs 3/4 shot at scum.) If we achieve the negative outcome and scum decides to use it, we are winning.
It's important to note that this is all done from a general perspective only crunching numbers. I could have added it up excluding myself (since I know I'm town), but you have no way of knowing that for certain, so this calculation is 100% WIFOM-free.
Yes, but I feel you are little bit hasty with it basing your reads on almost nothing, IMO.
True that, but I feel that it has given me an incentive to really participate in this game which I've been lacking in my last two games. Get opinions out there, get discussion rolling, let the reads pour in!
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
So then the smartest play for a vig would be to not kill anyone tonight, let only scum decide who to kill?
I like ZeDork's plan because it allows for roles to possibly be buffed, but I'm also against it because it relies less on working together and more on every-man-for-themself which probably helps mafia. I still think Az's is safest.
Nobody should be going anywhere else than Jail if they are not selected to go to the underworld. The revolution world just flat out says "Hey, I'm scum", and the other one is 50/50 at best when we have so little to work on for the lynch.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Yes. Not only that, but if two players die tonight and later someone claim vig and claim they were responsible for the second death, we should consider it the same as claiming scum.
Why?
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I got no idea how I got it into my head that your plan involved sending 4 people. Was it something Miracule misunderstood which I promptly followed up on? Not important, so not going to bother checking up on it.
As for the plans I'm still liking Azraels plan the best. The really scary scenario is if we send one town and one scum to the underworld. The scum could then use the double NK (7 town left vs 3 scum), and it will be a straight out battle between the two we send for who the next days lynch is. Odds are we'll mislynch 50% of the time. (6 town left vs 3 scum). Then scum gets another night, leaving us 5 against 3, barring a vigshot or something. I don't like that one bit, and I'd rather we played it safe and send 3.
As for the other places I won't trust anyone that doesn't go to the underworld or jail (at least not if someone ends up with a doublevote saying "yeah I really felt this first lynch was correct"). Going to Planisphere before a mislynch is kindof a null tell I think.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
I think people are still confused on how the underworld works:
The mafia only has a double kill if:
1. There is only one person in there, regardless of alignment.
2. If there are nobody in there.
3. Every single townie is in there.
Therefore given that my plan actually has the highest positive success rate using numbers in that there is a 24.5 % chance of there being either one or two scum, while having only one town, which the scum will be forced to nightkill if in there with the scum. Basically my plan has the biggest upside since it has the highest chance of catching all scum and the lowest downside since we are most restricting where the nightkill can go.
1. ZDS-Miracle-Vish thingy at the start of RVS pinged my scumdar. ZDS says that daytalk is extremely rare,, yet he then says that the mod might have daychat. It could be WIFOM, but I assumed that it's an interesting point to mull over.
2. I would say that vish is acting paranoid.
3. I don't like HK-47's "how much mafia experience do you have, vishamon". It basically tells the scum "who should we nk?". He is on my short list for scum atm.
4. Azrael's post either breadcrumbs that he has a killing role, joking, or is scum. Ah, but he is experienced enough to not breadcrumb scum. The joy of WIFOM.
5. Is the HK-47 and ZDS slapfight OMGUS? Distancing?
6. DoG shows up and barns az's plan.
7. Guardman: What if one of the people are scum? It's also laden w/WIFOM.
By the way, I find the boardgame mechanic hard to wrap my brain around and quite gimmicky, so I'm just going to default every night unless people tell me to go to another place.
7. Guardman: What if one of the people are scum? It's also laden w/WIFOM.
That's fine. Then we have just chosen their nightkill for them. Basically we have forced the scum's hand and gotten rid of a person we suspected. If only one is town then we still come out ahead.
As for the WIFOM all the plans so far are laden with WIFOM, as WIFOM is just the nature of using the Underworld in any way.
That's fine. Then we have just chosen their nightkill for them. Basically we have forced the scum's hand and gotten rid of a person we suspected. If only one is town then we still come out ahead.
As for the WIFOM all the plans so far are laden with WIFOM, as WIFOM is just the nature of using the Underworld in any way.
Not true. If we send one scum and one town to underworld, the scum will stay in jail, leaving us with one person in underworld, giving the scum the dreaded double nk with limitless targets.
Not true. If we send one scum and one town to underworld, the scum will stay in jail, leaving us with one person in underworld, giving the scum the dreaded double nk with limitless targets.
Then we know one of them is scum.
That's the same problem if we send two scum.
While not a great problem, it's not a bad problem, either the scum show us we caught one or two of them or they play along. We technically win with both.
While not a great problem, it's not a bad problem, either the scum show us we caught one or two of them or they play along. We technically win with both.
No, we don't. We technically catch ONE scum, loosing 4 townies.
As for the plans I'm still liking Azraels plan the best. The really scary scenario is if we send one town and one scum to the underworld. The scum could then use the double NK (7 town left vs 3 scum), and it will be a straight out battle between the two we send for who the next days lynch is. Odds are we'll mislynch 50% of the time. (6 town left vs 3 scum). Then scum gets another night, leaving us 5 against 3, barring a vigshot or something. I don't like that one bit, and I'd rather we played it safe and send 3.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Not true. If we send one scum and one town to underworld, the scum will stay in jail, leaving us with one person in underworld, giving the scum the dreaded double nk with limitless targets.
The mafia will choose not to get a double NK and expose a member, they would probably just single NK the townie that went to the Underworld. It would be indistinguishable from a 2-town situation.
Well it all presumes we will have two (or even more in Azrael's case) suspects to send there, right? Isn't it too much to expect to have 3 suspects on day 1? Or how do you expect to pick people to go there?
I've got two and counting. Let me know who your third buddy is, and we'll take it from there.
So can we get back to lynching Vitek instead of playing with statistics now?
Because if a vig shoots and hits town it will mix all the signals, and we will be in prime position to chain up mislynches. Therefore a real vig won't take such a huge risk.
Ok. I have yet to play a game where a vig-shot is indestuingishable (sp) from a NK, but that is probably just because I've only played one game who had a vig in it. If vigshots can be confused with NK's I follow your logic.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
@Prophylaxis; I understand ZDS here. Even if Flew is likely to put daytlak in his game Vishamon has no way of knowing this as he himself admitted he is new here so he couldn't know it, so it is understandable to question him about it.
A Mod would inform any members of the scum team if they had daychat. Why do you believe that Vishamon being new would hinder this? This looks like an attempt to "clear" a scumbuddy.
What? How? I was just asking who he is refering to. Those were 2 people I mentioned in my post and I am not sure which one he meant in his post about clearing scumbuddy.
Reading it out of context, the post is really scummy.
It doesn't, you misunderstood his post. He isn't saying Vishamon had no way to know if the scum have daychat, he is saying Vishamon had no way to know that Flew is more likely than other mods to use daychat.
But this has me questioning why Vitek didn't say this, but yet you spoke up for him. Why is this? <---- For Both ZDS and Vitek to answer.
I got the point that I misunderstood his post. That does not make it right for you to give answers that that player should be able to think of for him/herself. Which Vitek was unable to do. He only focused on my question which makes me believe that your statement about me misunderstanding his post is not accurate.
Please answer this question ZDS: Why are you speaking up for other players when they are qualified to this on their own? I understood your earlier answer, but I don't agree with it. Especially after all the Basic I went through where players were hounded for answering questions that were not directed at them.
Void: It's not an answer, it's an observation. Vitek still has to say why he reacted the way he did to PK's vote.
Additionally, that his post shows annoyance is only my interpretation. You can still ask him why he was sarcastic (according to your own interpretation); and if your question is now pointless because you no longer believe he was sarcastic and you only cared about the answer if he was indeed sarcastic, then either you ask the wrong questions or you don't look at the answers the right way.
Whether it was an observation or your interpretation of the matter does not change the fact that you changed the outcome of his answer. Anyone who responds to a question, that is not adressed to them, prior to the player, who the question was addressed too, will change said outcome.
Whether it was an observation or your interpretation of the matter does not change the fact that you changed the outcome of his answer. Anyone who responds to a question, that is not adressed to them, prior to the player, who the question was addressed too, will change said outcome.
QFT.
This looks alot like town Void.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Most mislynches come from misunderstandings and misinterpretations, and from the accused not being able to clear them up (usually as a result of not noticing them). If I, with my external perspective, am able to catch a misunderstanding or offer an alternate interpretation, then I must intervene for the greater good of the town.
Void: Get used to me answering for other players. I do it insofar as it can clear a misunderstanding or a misinterpretation. And yes, it changes the outcome. In a good way.
Most mislynches come from misunderstandings and misinterpretations, and from the accused not being able to clear them up (usually as a result of not noticing them). If I, with my external perspective, am able to catch a misunderstanding or offer an alternate interpretation, then I must intervene for the greater good of the town.
I am sorry if I hurt your pride by short-circuiting you, but personal pride is what prevents towns from acting as a team and finding scum together. Get rid of it and accept that you cannot find all the scum by yourself, with only your interpretations and your questions and the answers of only who you want to answer.
Fair enough. I will live with this and try to adjust.
I agree that this is going no where fast. IHow does a soft-claim sound? (Doesn't matter what we claim to me. Just trying to progress the game.)
I don't really see the advantage of a mass claim at this stage, other than giving any detective variants we nigh have more to work with... Idk, I'm not convinced this setup favors day 1 mass claim.
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Johnny/Spike Melvin
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Once? Twice? Town had some pretty phenomenal power roles though.
Statement: That's of interest to me. Here, I don't think that would happen. It would be considered bastardly in most cases.
Fair enough.
Good answer. Town-feels.
I'm gonna go ahead and believe that the machine misread the rules and did not pourposfully try to lead the town astray. Townie posting suggests the same.
Vishamons rvs-unvote seems forced and unnecessary. Could be inexperience with the format, like lucid in office mafia (iirc). Similar oddities due to rl mafia-xp bur first time in forums.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
"Mulling it over" is not the best kind of reaction you could have given to Az's plan.
It isn't a complicated plan and if someone realizes a fatal flaw in it, saying you liked it earlier isn't a contract bound in blood. What particularly did you see good about it that still confused you that you need to think over?
When in doubt, the answer is ponies. Also, it's adorable when you fearmonger.
I agree, wanting to kill you is definitely a pro-town action.
Yessssssssssssssssss.
Sarcasm, ho!
This.
+100 Az Points
Yeah, no. My theory? You're holding out for an argument help to weasel out of the town controlling the mafia NK and denying the double-shot.
Confirm vote.
That's what this entire game is about, no?
I lol'ed.
^Read this out loud.^
Guardman needs to post something relevant to this thread, he's been digesting the setup for days.
@Guardman: Do you suffer from indigestion?
Void has not checked in at all. Worries.
Prophylaxis I'm also missing (more) content from.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Why the sarcasm after just one vote?
Why so harsh with the bolded? It's not like you've been asked over and voer again.
Vote: Vitek
-------------------
As for the plan. I also agree with AZ's plan.
Valid point, I'm just making note of it. Much easier if everyone says something. I also thought that minis were faster than other games, but that's probably my own misconception of the format. (Faster like in closer to epicmafia than a basic).
I am also suspicious of Vitek, but Vishamon has yet to sway me away from voting him, hence vote stays.
I think we all agree that we really must not rush a lynch this game until we've decided where to go, or will we have a twilight post-lynch to decide that? Post-lynch, pre-flip that would be (or else the double vote/no-vote area would be moot).
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
I say send only two people to the underworld (our top two suspects). Everyone else in Jail. Four is unneedingly too many and if we send both scum we will find two scum.
Unvote, Vote Guardman
Mafia can simply choose to not kill two people. Then you would have people convinced that these two are 'confirmed town' when it could definitely not be the case.
First I think you are misunderstanding how the Underworld works. The Mafia only has two kills if nobody, only 1 person, or the entire town is in the Underworld. If those conditions aren't met then the mafia can only kill 1 person in the underworld, regardless of alignment. Therefore sending only two people in is the best course of action.
1. If the two people are the people we most suspect then we are probably going to lynch them (or at the least still suspect them) anyway regardless of if they aren't nightkilled this way. If one of them is nightkilled then we just found out the alignment of a top suspect.
2. Or then we won't have a nightkill. Which is good for the town.
Therefore sending in two top suspects is good for the town no matter what.
Here is the breakdown if we send 2 people:
Two Town: one of them dies. They pop up town. Our "top suspect" will always be town in this case.
One Town: The one mafia member stays in default. The mafia can at this point NK two people. Instead they choose only to kill the townie in jail (to convince us of the above scenario).
Zero Town: This one may result in no NK, since there isn't really any way for them to hide themselves. They might both go to Revolution Town to ensure they don't die day 2? It's tough to say. If we were to use this plan this is the most desirable outcome, but also least likely, which is why I don't really like it.
Additionally, if we send just two people, any townies that decide to be brave/heroic/stupid and go to the underworld as well, the mafia will receive a list of names of who they can kill that night presumably. One of them could false claim location cop and try to frame a townie for lying, though I don't really see why we would lynch for that on day 2, but they might wait until late game. This last bit is all speculation...
Sending Three People:
Three Town: Mafia gets a NK.
Two Town: Mafia gets a NK.
One Town: Mafia gets a NK (possibly two, but then we know the remaining three are all mafia, this will never happen.)
Zero Town: Possible no NK, see above.
Send Two players to Underworld.
Other players spread out between the three other zones.
I think this plan is the haziest, as it involves individual cunning and deceit, and a fair bit of WIFOM. I don't like this plan, it is the least helpful to town. Remember, as long as two players go to the underworld, everyone else is safe from NK in jail, so power roles don't need to go anywhere else for protection.
Unvote Guardman
I am in such a whimsical mood today.
Right, it means we should keep an eye on them. If NK's are decided in a similar way on other nights, we can keep sending them to the NK zone...and if they keep living it would become more and more suspicious.
I was actually going to bring this up, but I decided not to, since it's total flavor gaming.What if mafia can't stay in the default location, or else they are penalized in some way? It is jail, after all. Unfortunately, this is pure speculation and there's no way to test it, but it would definitely help if it was true.
What difference does his thinking make? All the difference. Surely you've played mafia before
I'm just suspicious about going to any of the locations tonight, as I'm sure that certain players will gain powers when they go to certain locations.
Bolded suggests Guardsman is scum... Am I reading into that too far?
I think it's quite plainly obvious that he means "there will be no nightkill".
I might be biased, but I think you are.
By that I meant there will be no nightkill. It's said in the same context as "We won't have a lynch."
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
We have 12 players totally, and I'm assuming there are 3 scum.
All calculations are determening the odds of how many players per fragment will go to The gates of the Underworld.
Two players (Guardmans plan):
Two town: 9/12 * 8/11 = 0,75 * 0,72 = 0,54 = 54%
One town, one scum: 9/12 * 3/11 = 0,75 * 0,27 = 0,20 = 20%
Two scum: 3/12 * 2/11 = 0,25 * 0,18 = 0,045 = 4,5%
Three players (Azraels plan):
Three town: 9/12 * 8/11 * 7/10 = 0,75 * 0,72 * 0,70 = 0,378 = 38%
Two town, one scum: 9/12 * 8/11 * 3/10 = 0,75 * 0,72 * 0,3 = 0,16 = 16%
One town, two scum: 9/12 * 3/11 * 2/10 = 0,75 * 0,27 * 0,20 = 0,04 = 4%
Three scum: 3/12 * 2/11 * 1/10 = 0,25 * 0,18 * 0,10 = 0,0045 = 0,45%
Four players (ZeDorkSlipeurs plan):
Four town: 9/12 * 8/11 * 7/10 * 6/9 = 0,75 * 0,72 * 0,70 * 0,66 = 0,249 = 25%
Three town, one scum: 9/12 * 8/11 * 7/10 * 3/9 = 0,75 * 0,72 * 0,70 * 0,33 = 0,126 = 13%
Two town, two scum: 9/12 * 8/11 * 3/10 * 2/9 = 0,75 * 0,72 * 0,3 * 0,22 = 0,035 = 3,5%
One town, three scum: 9/12 * 3/11 * 2/10 * 1/10 = 0,75 * 0,27 * 0,20 * 1/10 = 0,004 = 0,4%
I'm thinking the ideal number of town players to have in the underworld is anything other than 0, 1 or 9(all) to avoid the double NK.
Guardmans plan: Negative outcome: 20% + 4,5% = 24,5% ->75,5% chance of ideal outcome.
Azraels plan: Negative outcome: 4% + 0,45% = 4,45% -> 95,55% chance of ideal outcome.
ZeDorkSlipeurs plan: Negative outcome: 0,4% -> 99,96% chance of ideal outcome.
I see that there is something I've forgotten about this math, as the percentages just doesn't add up to 100. Does anyone know how to correct this?
I do believe that the end percentages for negative outcomes are correct though.
What this tells us is that ZeDorkSlipeurs plan is extremely safe, Azraels plan is very safe, and Guardmans plan is about 3/4 safe. The important point is that the more players we send to The gates of the Underworld, the more choices we give scum for targeting. Hence it seems that while Azraels and ZeDorkSlipeurs plan have almost the same amount of safety, ZeDorkSlipeurs is giving scum one additional NK-choice. We probably don't want that.
Also, the less players we send the more information we are likely to get if the negative outcome is achieved and scum decides to use its double NK.(Guardmans plan delivering two scum into our hands, Azrael 2/3 shot at scum, ZeDorkSlipeurs 3/4 shot at scum.) If we achieve the negative outcome and scum decides to use it, we are winning.It's important to note that this is all done from a general perspective only crunching numbers. I could have added it up excluding myself (since I know I'm town), but you have no way of knowing that for certain, so this calculation is 100% WIFOM-free.
True that, but I feel that it has given me an incentive to really participate in this game which I've been lacking in my last two games. Get opinions out there, get discussion rolling, let the reads pour in!
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
I like ZeDork's plan because it allows for roles to possibly be buffed, but I'm also against it because it relies less on working together and more on every-man-for-themself which probably helps mafia. I still think Az's is safest.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Good point however it still gave Vitek another answer to use. (I honestly think he would have thought of it regardless of you mentioning it.)
Vitek:
I've liked your calm and level headed responses thus far and will Unvote
I'm good with either ZDS' plan and Az's plan at this point. Leaning mroe towards ZDS.
Why?
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I got no idea how I got it into my head that your plan involved sending 4 people. Was it something Miracule misunderstood which I promptly followed up on? Not important, so not going to bother checking up on it.
As for the plans I'm still liking Azraels plan the best. The really scary scenario is if we send one town and one scum to the underworld. The scum could then use the double NK (7 town left vs 3 scum), and it will be a straight out battle between the two we send for who the next days lynch is. Odds are we'll mislynch 50% of the time. (6 town left vs 3 scum). Then scum gets another night, leaving us 5 against 3, barring a vigshot or something. I don't like that one bit, and I'd rather we played it safe and send 3.
As for the other places I won't trust anyone that doesn't go to the underworld or jail (at least not if someone ends up with a doublevote saying "yeah I really felt this first lynch was correct"). Going to Planisphere before a mislynch is kindof a null tell I think.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
The mafia only has a double kill if:
1. There is only one person in there, regardless of alignment.
2. If there are nobody in there.
3. Every single townie is in there.
Therefore given that my plan actually has the highest positive success rate using numbers in that there is a 24.5 % chance of there being either one or two scum, while having only one town, which the scum will be forced to nightkill if in there with the scum. Basically my plan has the biggest upside since it has the highest chance of catching all scum and the lowest downside since we are most restricting where the nightkill can go.
1. ZDS-Miracle-Vish thingy at the start of RVS pinged my scumdar. ZDS says that daytalk is extremely rare,, yet he then says that the mod might have daychat. It could be WIFOM, but I assumed that it's an interesting point to mull over.
2. I would say that vish is acting paranoid.
3. I don't like HK-47's "how much mafia experience do you have, vishamon". It basically tells the scum "who should we nk?". He is on my short list for scum atm.
4. Azrael's post either breadcrumbs that he has a killing role, joking, or is scum. Ah, but he is experienced enough to not breadcrumb scum. The joy of WIFOM.
5. Is the HK-47 and ZDS slapfight OMGUS? Distancing?
6. DoG shows up and barns az's plan.
7. Guardman: What if one of the people are scum? It's also laden w/WIFOM.
By the way, I find the boardgame mechanic hard to wrap my brain around and quite gimmicky, so I'm just going to default every night unless people tell me to go to another place.
That's fine. Then we have just chosen their nightkill for them. Basically we have forced the scum's hand and gotten rid of a person we suspected. If only one is town then we still come out ahead.
As for the WIFOM all the plans so far are laden with WIFOM, as WIFOM is just the nature of using the Underworld in any way.
Not true. If we send one scum and one town to underworld, the scum will stay in jail, leaving us with one person in underworld, giving the scum the dreaded double nk with limitless targets.
Then we know one of them is scum.
That's the same problem if we send two scum.
While not a great problem, it's not a bad problem, either the scum show us we caught one or two of them or they play along. We technically win with both.
No, we don't. We technically catch ONE scum, loosing 4 townies.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Probably doesn't change much, but had to be said.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
The mafia will choose not to get a double NK and expose a member, they would probably just single NK the townie that went to the Underworld. It would be indistinguishable from a 2-town situation.
I've got two and counting. Let me know who your third buddy is, and we'll take it from there.
So can we get back to lynching Vitek instead of playing with statistics now?
Ok. I have yet to play a game where a vig-shot is indestuingishable (sp) from a NK, but that is probably just because I've only played one game who had a vig in it. If vigshots can be confused with NK's I follow your logic.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
A Mod would inform any members of the scum team if they had daychat. Why do you believe that Vishamon being new would hinder this? This looks like an attempt to "clear" a scumbuddy.
This looks like a slip.
Reading it out of context, the post is really scummy.
Vishamon
But this has me questioning why Vitek didn't say this, but yet you spoke up for him. Why is this? <---- For Both ZDS and Vitek to answer.
Please answer this question ZDS: Why are you speaking up for other players when they are qualified to this on their own? I understood your earlier answer, but I don't agree with it. Especially after all the Basic I went through where players were hounded for answering questions that were not directed at them.
This is from earlier we both recall:
Whether it was an observation or your interpretation of the matter does not change the fact that you changed the outcome of his answer. Anyone who responds to a question, that is not adressed to them, prior to the player, who the question was addressed too, will change said outcome.
QFT.
This looks alot like town Void.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Yeah.
I don't have a problem with this.
Me neither.
I wish I had more, but really all I am getting is misunderstandings and gaming the board.
So... bored...
Fair enough. I will live with this and try to adjust.
I agree that this is going no where fast. IHow does a soft-claim sound? (Doesn't matter what we claim to me. Just trying to progress the game.)