Look, we can go back and take a look at the next previous Nights if you'd like to be sure. I think we'll find the same thing: There will be an unaccounted for number of points. That's the NK.
Well alrighty
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The only unaccounted for variables I can conceive is something that is moving the Clock backwards, which don't notice because so many more things are moving it forwards. I've wondered if such a thing exists due to my other ability, but so far nothing has presented itself.
The only unaccounted for variables I can conceive is something that is moving the Clock backwards, which don't notice because so many more things are moving it forwards. I've wondered if such a thing exists due to my other ability, but so far nothing has presented itself.
Yeah, that's mostly where I was coming from. Like, it seems like it makes to much sense for there to be a role moving the clock backwards for there to not be one, but at the same time blah blah unmodgamable game.
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You accept that the NK is 6 points (at least on purple nights)?
Also, shoot me if you want.
Yay! We agree.
That brings us back to four town vs. one scum I think. (I don't think there's more than one scum left.) If we then lynch Brin (and we still haven't won), and then we lynch kpaca. I don't think Pale Mage is scum. His latest posts have solidified it for me. (Especially 3238)
Whoah whoah whoah....you've called out kpaca's reasoning for investigating Xyre, have him on your PoE list, recognize that the only other math that works out is kpaca in your place, but you still suggest Brinatoo ahead of him?
C'mon, man! It's like you're not even trying at this point.
This makes sense with how the other abilities have been costed, too. Nights Four and Five were using purple numbers and the NK moved the Aeon Clock six places. Night Three used the green numbers, and the NK only moved the Aeon Clock five places.
Anyone wanna bet we're missing 4 points on Nights One (Spring) and Two (Summer)?
I've been doing some calculations of my own, and there's something wrong with yours, because of AE's abilities.
Only if AE had been successful with using his whirlpool ability, he could use swept away. However, if he did use swept away, he would have died on Day 5, along with whomever he targeted. So he can't have used swept away Night 4. Also he can't have used tidal influence on night 4 or 5, because that would have required two successful whirlpools in a row, which didn't happen because he admitted his ability failed against kpaca. So AE must have used whirlpool every season (if he did use his night action every night), which brings us to the following tallies for the past couple of nights...
Wrong. AE used Whirlpool against kpaca on Nights Three and Four. Night Five we are assuming he used Tidal Influence. And the math works. The balance sheet foots.
Swept Away doesn't enter into it. Neither does the failed Whirlpool on kpaca because that was all the way back on Night One.
Math aside, it wouldn't make sense for AE to use Whirlpool on kpaca or anyone else on Night Five. If he targets scum with that ability, he gets hit with the NK. If he'd hit a snag of some kind on Night Four, I could see him playing pseudo-bodyguard, but he hadn't. AE had invested two Nights into his suspect. He was going to rolecop him come hell or high water.
Why won't any of your team just drop the sham when your busted? This is all over save the funeral.
I'm more a man of letters, but these numbers are turning me on. Plus, it's elementary math, so I don't need Niv to walk me through it.
Quote from Wessel »
In any way, AE has only been able to use his whirlpool ability. Also, if he didn't use it Night 5, there are 8 places remaining.
This is your premise I destroyed earlier in the post...
Now who could have filled those remaining places? I say Brinatoo.
I think the NK might be worth +3/+4 places, and Brinatoo used an ability night 3 and night 4 to move the clock +2 places with DJC performing the NK. Or the NK is worth +4 every season, with Brinatoo's ability moving the clock +1/+2.
Words words words
I still prefer to vig Brin.
I'll bet you do!
Well, Brinatoo has been number 1 on my scumlist for a while now, so it shouldn't surprise you. I also wasn't totally convinced about your calculations, hence I didn't want to condemn kpaca for them immediately, hence I also did my own. It shows I was right not to move kpaca to my top spot, and I think my calculations show more clearly that Brinatoo is probably the one responsible for the unaccounted-for clock changes.
The only thing your calculations demonstrate are that you're cornered. You've resorted to making stuff up to try and weasel your way out of from the harsh glare of the Sun.
Like I said in my other game thread, I'll be V/LA until Tuesday, May 29th. If I get any PMs or any significant game events happen during that time, I'll do my best to respond to them but flavor will probably be limited.
Pointing out logic built on factually incorrect statements is hardly shortsightedness. I am reminded of your "Misreps. Misreps everywhere" post with Woody and Buzz wherein I don't recall you detailing many misreps, if any.
You'll need to do better than this.
Talking about Archmage Eternal, now we know he's town, we know he was talking the truth about his whirlpool ability. This has been discussed before, but we now know he was talking the truth. So why did his redirect ability fail on kpaca?
Does that mean kpaca does in fact not have an ability in the spring, but does have an ability in the autumn and winter (when AE investigated him)?
If that's so, kpaca is at least lying. You should see this as well, Pale. Or am I missing something here?
You're missing the opportunity to enter your scoop phase and save everyone some time. I'll further note you missed the opportunity to respond to my last post, wherein I destroyed your attempt to twist facts and obfuscate the true meaning behind the Aeon Clock's movements over the past few Nights.
When would AE's abilities have succeeded or failed? Why would his ability have failed night 1? Because you didn't use an ability? Or because he was otherwise blocked? The only people with that kind of power in the spring are ced395 (practically impossible, just read his role why), ganderin_dan (would have had to be extremely providential, also practically impossible), or possibly DJ Catchem (which would mean he would have two distinct abilities, also practically impossible). So there's no reason why AE's ability would have been blocked or anything, which makes me wonder why his ability failed on you. The only reason I can think of is that you did not use an ability Night 1.
Also, @PM: Remember this if I'm dead due to your stubbornness, but AE did not target kpaca last night. I watched kpaca, and zindabad confirmed that no-one targeted him. AE can't have used tidal influence.
Can and did. Consider this: even if a player is roleblocked by my ability any actions he attempted still affect the Clock. So even if you were being honest with me in your results and no one targeted kpaca (oh, I'm sorry...successfully targeted kpaca as you first reported), then it is correct for us to follow AE's trail as best we can. His announced intentions/actions and the Clock movements are in agreement that he used Tidal Influence. This is not a coincidence.
Everything in your top paragraph is immaterial. In the highly unlikely event we need to consider these things, we will. None of this outweighs the evidence currently against you.
Seriously, aren't you tired yet? I'm not as organized or prolific as I once was, but I can ride you around this ring as many times as it takes. Between the Aeon Clock, the discrepancies in your claim/results, and the behavioral evidence it's very clear you're scum. Probably the last one, as well.
Like I said in my other game thread, I'll be V/LA until Tuesday, May 29th. If I get any PMs or any significant game events happen during that time, I'll do my best to respond to them but flavor will probably be limited.
You might as well have Wessel's death scene prepared. He's going down to my stubborness, apparently.
I still fail to see how you think I should know anything related to ae or his abilities. I do not know why he got what results he did, what the mod designated status of his targets was, or what abilities he actually used if any. He didnt seem to apt to detail them himself. Furthermore, if you are town Wessel, we are lynching pale mage i promise you. So please bloviate on how he's scum for a bit now.
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Oh! Gotcha! I believe I was targeted by somebody else, and was given the ability to use my ability twice. I did, even though there was really no point.
That's Tezz in response to Artifice re: the motivate (Heat Wave). Note Tezz confirms he used his ability twice as a result. Again I "boo", again I "ya".
It's a shame AE never got round to claiming what he did Night 4.
Also, does anyone know what Artifice did in Night 2, did he claim if he motivated someone?
AE quite clearly softclaimed using the Whirlpool ability on kpaca when he asked AGAIN for kpaca to claim his targets for the previous Night. He and I had a short discussion about the productivity of having that conversation again on a different day.
I would like to point out how this game is becoming more and more about math.
I would like to point out you are perfectly capable of doing something other than math if you'd care to do so.
I would further like to point out this math is important. In the final analysis I am demonstrating that the Mafia NK moves the Aeon Clock. I have established a predictable pattern to support this. This is crucial, because it demonstrates beyond a reasonable doubt that one of the seven point claimed abilities from last Night was in fact not used. In its stead a six point NK was used.
Given other factors (his claim problems, his behavior this game) we know who the liar is.
The math is simply a huge nail in the Wessel coffin.
I mean I think Wessel is scum, but all this math is troubling to me the more I see it. Quite frankly we just do no know what might cause those numbers. One person is lying about their role, and who the hell knows what all they can do?
So far, I feel as if I'm the only person who has taken all of zindabad's warnings about trying non-behavioral analysis to heart. What if someone is removing points? What if the nightkill doesn't require point activation? What if the scum can use their ability and their nightkill? Maybe I have an over active imagination but both you and Wessel are having a math battle, and you really don't know that you are even doing the right math. You could be doing geometry when calculus is needed for all we know.
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I mean I think Wessel is scum, but all this math is troubling to me the more I see it. Quite frankly we just do no know what might cause those numbers. One person is lying about their role, and who the hell knows what all they can do?
Kpaca, we know a lot about what caused those numbers. Xyre's ability has provided a wealth of information, and we've been diligent about getting claims. Those two things are why we can apply the math to find discrepancies. Which is what I've done.
So far, I feel as if I'm the only person who has taken all of zindabad's warnings about trying non-behavioral analysis to heart.
Zindabad's point was he randomized most of the roles. That's it. He didn't provide us tools and expect us to ignore them. The Aeon Clock is more than a flavorful way to track the Seasons when combined with enough information.
What if someone is removing points?
Then things wouldn't add up. But they are. The whole point here is there are more points then should be there over the course of the game.
What if the nightkill doesn't require point activation?
Uh...I've pretty well shown that it does.
Evidence suggets this: Mafia NK (+4, +5, +6).
What if the scum can use their ability and their nightkill?
Okay. I've done the point totals for you. What would that mean? How does that fit? I've also suggested a good place to go research the likelihood of that: Zindabad's other games.
Maybe I have an over active imagination but both you and Wessel are having a math battle, and you really don't know that you are even doing the right math. You could be doing geometry when calculus is needed for all we know.
All that's required is arithmetic, and that's all I'm doing. Wessel and I are having a logic battle, and I'm destroying him at every turn. Look at the points he brings up to try and counter the argument.
Soon we'll have run out of numbers and then I'll move on to his claim to remind everyone how fluid that's been (the very height of honesty, surely), and then we'll take look at Wessel's behavior at specific times and as a whole.
Well sure, it's a specialty after all, and it could be that kpaca is a 50% cop or something, but I don't want to see it like that. If it's between Brinatoo and kpaca, I think it's far more likely that Brinatoo lied about being guaranteed sane, trying to protect Void perhaps, while casting doubt on kpaca.
It would have been more planned and thought out if I was scum, when I claimed that information. Hell, I don't think I would have tried something like that.
The flip doesn't really help that much, as you could be falseclaiming your ability entirely and relying on your knowledge of alignments for results.
What helps is you not using AE as easy fodder.
Okay but what is easy fodder in this context? I have never heard of that saying.
With kpaca saying Xyre is town, I'm going to put him in my town pile, leaving Wessel. Only thing that would say Xyre is scum is Godfather/insanity scenario which I'm inclined to ignore right now. However, Xyre has proven his ability, and so has AI, and for them to have Godfather abilities on top of the pm revealer/daykilling, I won't believe.
Leaving:
PM, kpaca, and Wessel.
PM town points from yesterDay and kpaca from earlier. Wessel has.... the intent to stay alive no matter what. I say go down to 3 in the chamber, Alpha.
I went to a bbq of sorts, but it was my computer that was on fire. Both my case fans broke and suddenly my computer seized and burning rubber smell flooded the room. Fun times.
Well, probably most are waiting on Alpha to make a decision. If only he would do something, like post, pm zindabad, or sing a song.
In addition to my cpu problems, I wanted to wait to submit the kill until Zindabad was back. But, you are right in your summary. Even if you don't flip scum, we have another shot. I'm seeing a strong consensus that you need to go one way or the other, and we can make a more informed lynch if necessary once we solve your situation.
Daykill submitted.
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
I went to a bbq of sorts, but it was my computer that was on fire. Both my case fans broke and suddenly my computer seized and burning rubber smell flooded the room. Fun times.
"So few remained, but only one was the focus of all attention. Thrust into the center of the circle, the Elemental looked around at her accusers. 'You've all made up your minds, haven't you? I see that you have. I am an Elemental of peace and goodwill, and I have done you no wrong. Why do you persecute me so?' 'Yes, why do you persecute her, my beloved children?' the image of Yblisa mocked cruelly."
"Why was she still there? Just to poke fun?"
"I think she sensed the end was near."
"Indeed - one way or the other, it would all be over soon. The alleged traitor faced the others, her petals floating slightly in the wind. 'I am Hmokaya, the Golden Blooms, and I am the caretaker of all the world's flora. Bring forth the sun; I do not fear it. It only nourishes my charges.'"
"Was she telling it true? The sun wouldn't harm her?"
"The words were mere bravado, my boy. When the others summoned the vast, bloated, tangerine sun and channeled its light and heat, Hmokaya succumbed just as the rest did. For a moment, she seemed to ascend, carried on the rays. Then, like snowflakes, a swirling emptiness took her place. The crisped, grey petals that had formerly made up Hmokaya twisted on the eddies of air."
"And was it over?"
"They waited and waited, murmuring to one another, trying to convince each other that they had not just sacrificed one of their own kin for nothing. The din grew louder and more insistent until it was finally cut by an unearthly sound - the laughter of the Mother. Jagged and hateful, her laughing fit tore at the Elementals' innards, hurting them body and soul. 'What fools you are. What children. You ought to have obeyed your Mother.' Yblisa brought her closed fist up to her face, staring out at the survivors over it, then let it open, spilling forth the remnants of Hmokaya in a grey cascade. 'This is your fate. You rush toward it headlong. Closer and closer. Soon, all will be silent again.'"
"And they were afraid."
"Oh, yes. Their hearts shuddered at the dread words of their Mother. But they looked on one another, and their resolves hardened. They now had to avenge Hmokaya as well as all the others who had fallen in whatever cosmic struggle they had become pawns in...."
Wessel has been killed. He was Hmokaya, the Golden Blooms, Elemental of Flowers.
The Clock has moved forward 17 places and now stands at 42. It remains SUMMER. The harsh sunlight has faded.
Votes have been reset.
@Zindabad: When would a (hypothetical) targeted lightning rod (*cough* Archmage Eternal *cough*) fail? Would the ability fail when the targeted person didn't use an ability? (Or the other way around, would it succeed if the targeted player used any ability, including Yanni's sowing season?) Would the ability fail if the targeted person's ability can't be redirected (like for example Yanni's sowing season)?
@Zindabad: Say there's a motivator in this game (Artifice) who motivates someone else. Would that other person's ability then count twice towards the Aeon clock movement?
Whenever a player uses an ability, the Clock is affected. If a player uses an ability twice, the Clock is affected twice.
Well, if it's kpaca or Alpha, I'll eat my hat. Pale Mage's results drove DJ to his grave. Which just leaves Brinatoo faking cop investigations on known townies.
I still feel like he's just been playing badly because he's bad, but he's the best suspect at this point.
Well, if it's kpaca or Alpha, I'll eat my hat. Pale Mage's results drove DJ to his grave. Which just leaves Brinatoo faking cop investigations on known townies.
I still feel like he's just been playing badly because he's bad, but he's the best suspect at this point.
I agree Brin is the best suspect at this point. The math points to kpaca, but behavior (particularly the early Days) trumps that by a good margin.
If it isn't Brin, we're either looking at Godfather shenanigans or kpaca. Frankly, if either of those is the case I'm pretty sure we're just dead in the water.
Well, if it's kpaca or Alpha, I'll eat my hat. Pale Mage's results drove DJ to his grave. Which just leaves Brinatoo faking cop investigations on known townies.
And his math drove Wessel to the grave...I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that Pale Mage is hiding something. His claim feels incomplete, whereas I can envision a role like Brinatoo's being as he claimed. A guaranteed cop investigation that essentially can't be blocked is powerful, regardless of whether it's random or not.
With DJ being pretty much smoked already, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that PM was just pulling a gambit with his roleblock claim.
To be fair, that's the opposite of what he's suggesting.
My gut is telling me to Vote: Pale Mage
Hopefully I don't regret it.
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
Alpha, unvote. No sense in putting PM in hammer range before Brinatoo shows up to respond.
Fair point...deadline IS in two days though.
Unvote
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Quote from TheFooFish »
Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
And his math drove Wessel to the grave...I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that Pale Mage is hiding something. His claim feels incomplete, whereas I can envision a role like Brinatoo's being as he claimed. A guaranteed cop investigation that essentially can't be blocked is powerful, regardless of whether it's random or not.
Pretty sure I was the only one excited by my math. Xyre's mind was made up and everyone else was leaning towards Wessel anyway. In fact, I nearly cleared Wessel on math until I realized I did the math incorrectly the first time.
How does my claim feel incomplete, btw? I have two abilites in Winter. One of them is a one-shot.
Do you even remember my claim, Alpha? Walk me through this one.
With DJ being pretty much smoked already...
Are we reading the same game? Yesterday was going to be a Xyre-Wessel fight without my information. Kpaca and I were voting him the end of the Day prior, but that was it.
What makes you say he was smoked, sir?
I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that PM was just pulling a gambit with his roleblock claim.
Sure, I could be. Pretty dumb gambit, though. And you're ignoring my behavior throughout the entire game.
Basically, the "gambit + math" argument boils down to "Pale is scummy because he was right Yesterday and wrong Today", which is junk.
It seems off to me that you would dump the math you so strongly believed in yesterday because of your behavior read on kpaca.
Yup. There were good behavioral reasons to suspect Wessel. The math added up so I preferred him over Brin. Kpaca's behavior has been pretty norm for him, and the only way he can be scum is if he commited to a strong gambit early in the game after pushing hard on half his team. Possible, but not likely. And if that turns out to be the case he's already won the game as far as I'm concerned.
So, yeah...I'm not taking the math that failed me on a strong suspect and assume it's correct in the face of a poor one.
To be fair, that's the opposite of what he's suggesting.
My gut is telling me to Vote: Pale Mage
Hopefully I don't regret it.
Well, you will in the short term. But as I said earlier if the last scum isn't Brinatoo we're pretty much screwed, anyway.
Bottom line: If you lynch me today it's for terrible reasons. It shouldn't be the end of the world, though. Unless Brin has an ace up his sleeve we should still be fine.
Well, the way I see it we probably win either way; it's again a question of minimizing risk. But I think it's more likely Brinatoo - I don't see why scum PM would bus his scum buddy with fake results from almost nothing; seems like having DJ is the only way he wins from that position.
I will lynch Pale Mage before nobody, but I would prefer it be Brinatoo.
Oh yeah, and the last bit of DJ's post here still bugs me:
Quote from DJ Catchem »
The best part is that after I worked out my anger and cleared my head, I looked at things as they played out so far, and I don't even think PM is scum at all. Misguided and pushing a lynch with nothing but a hunch, but not scum.
As I noted (indirectly) in the next post, this is a classic scum line - acknowledging his accuser's townieness to appear conciliatory. DRey did something very similar to me while I was hoisting him onto the scaffold.
The only way this makes sense in the PM-is-scum school is if PM planned with DJ to bus him from the start, but I still feel like there wasn't enough of a threat to justify such an action, and that would mean the above line was some cleverly-planned admission to try to get his scum buddy cleared, which fails the Occam's Razor test.
(Though I cleared AE and Brinatoo by the Occam's Razor test too, so what do I know.)
Well, the way I see it we probably win either way; it's again a question of minimizing risk. But I think it's more likely Brinatoo - I don't see why scum PM would bus his scum buddy with fake results from almost nothing; seems like having DJ is the only way he wins from that position.
I will lynch Pale Mage before nobody, but I would prefer it be Brinatoo.
Trying to get points when it wasn't nearly at lylo yet. Either it is a desperate attempt to get towny credit or some other crap scenario is present (godfather or kpaca pulled an excellent gambit from the near beginning)
I vote PM today, if it isn't over then something is up with the cops. Sucky because I would HATE a godfather or w/e this late in the game. 5 months lol
Trying to get points when it wasn't nearly at lylo yet. Either it is a desperate attempt to get towny credit or some other crap scenario is present (godfather or kpaca pulled an excellent gambit from the near beginning)
It so sounds like the kind of gambit I'd pull, too. "Gosh, looks like Xyre is dead set on getting Wessel lynched tomorrow, DJC. Tell you what we should do...let's no-kill and I'll claim to have roleblocked you! That way we'll either be down a man or the town will have strong reason to keep you in the spotlight after they lynch Wessel! High-five!!"
My work tends to be better than that. And I don't do desperate things if I'm not in a desperate situation.
I vote PM today, if it isn't over then something is up with the cops. Sucky because I would HATE a godfather or w/e this late in the game. 5 months lol
It so sounds like the kind of gambit I'd pull, too. "Gosh, looks like Xyre is dead set on getting Wessel lynched tomorrow, DJC. Tell you what we should do...let's no-kill and I'll claim to have roleblocked you! That way we'll either be down a man or the town will have strong reason to keep you in the spotlight after they lynch Wessel! High-five!!"
My work tends to be better than that. And I don't do desperate things if I'm not in a desperate situation.
Would you just HATE it? Lol?
Any objection to being lynched, Brin?
Quite. Any objection to being lynched, PM?
I'm going to ignore the existence of godfathers and -> lynch PM and if it's not over by then, kpaca. Otherwise we are screwed.
I dunno, theres a lot of unaccounted for unknown variables in mafia, which makes me generally distrust math.
Well alrighty
This is a simple balance sheet. This math supports your own behavioral read.
Look, if I'm wrong lynch me. Wessel is scum.
Oh yeah, I'm not denying that it supports my read.
Yeah, that's mostly where I was coming from. Like, it seems like it makes to much sense for there to be a role moving the clock backwards for there to not be one, but at the same time blah blah unmodgamable game.
.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
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Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Not entirely, no. I think you gave me the right numbers, though.
Correct!
Based on math only? Sure. Based on behavior? No.
You accept that the NK is 6 points (at least on purple nights)?
Yay! We agree.
Whoah whoah whoah....you've called out kpaca's reasoning for investigating Xyre, have him on your PoE list, recognize that the only other math that works out is kpaca in your place, but you still suggest Brinatoo ahead of him?
C'mon, man! It's like you're not even trying at this point.
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 21 places...
Green numbers!
WoD = 0 (Last Word X 2)
Artifice = 5 pts (Heat Wave)
MzztrT = 3 pts (Verdant Majesty, assumed)
Wessel = 5 pts (Poppies...poppies![/witch])
AE = 3 pts (Whirlpool)
Iso, kpain, xyre, me, alpha, brin, IB = 0 (Nada)
...so we can account for 16 points.
DJC = The missing 5 pts. (Mafia NK)
This makes sense with how the other abilities have been costed, too. Nights Four and Five were using purple numbers and the NK moved the Aeon Clock six places. Night Three used the green numbers, and the NK only moved the Aeon Clock five places.
Anyone wanna bet we're missing 4 points on Nights One (Spring) and Two (Summer)?
Congrats.
Wrong. AE used Whirlpool against kpaca on Nights Three and Four. Night Five we are assuming he used Tidal Influence. And the math works. The balance sheet foots.
Swept Away doesn't enter into it. Neither does the failed Whirlpool on kpaca because that was all the way back on Night One.
Math aside, it wouldn't make sense for AE to use Whirlpool on kpaca or anyone else on Night Five. If he targets scum with that ability, he gets hit with the NK. If he'd hit a snag of some kind on Night Four, I could see him playing pseudo-bodyguard, but he hadn't. AE had invested two Nights into his suspect. He was going to rolecop him come hell or high water.
Why won't any of your team just drop the sham when your busted? This is all over save the funeral.
AE isn't assumed on Night Three. He claimed.
Skippitty-doo-dah...
Oh, gosh. Your math built on faulty logic doesn't foot properly. Whodathunkit?
Let's fix it just to reiterate to the kids at home what really happened Night Five...
I'm more a man of letters, but these numbers are turning me on. Plus, it's elementary math, so I don't need Niv to walk me through it.
This is your premise I destroyed earlier in the post...
Words words words
I'll bet you do!
The only thing your calculations demonstrate are that you're cornered. You've resorted to making stuff up to try and weasel your way out of from the harsh glare of the Sun.
You had a good run, Wessel. Time to hang it up.
Like, you're just making things up now.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Pointing out logic built on factually incorrect statements is hardly shortsightedness. I am reminded of your "Misreps. Misreps everywhere" post with Woody and Buzz wherein I don't recall you detailing many misreps, if any.
You'll need to do better than this.
You're missing the opportunity to enter your scoop phase and save everyone some time. I'll further note you missed the opportunity to respond to my last post, wherein I destroyed your attempt to twist facts and obfuscate the true meaning behind the Aeon Clock's movements over the past few Nights.
Can and did. Consider this: even if a player is roleblocked by my ability any actions he attempted still affect the Clock. So even if you were being honest with me in your results and no one targeted kpaca (oh, I'm sorry...successfully targeted kpaca as you first reported), then it is correct for us to follow AE's trail as best we can. His announced intentions/actions and the Clock movements are in agreement that he used Tidal Influence. This is not a coincidence.
Everything in your top paragraph is immaterial. In the highly unlikely event we need to consider these things, we will. None of this outweighs the evidence currently against you.
Seriously, aren't you tired yet? I'm not as organized or prolific as I once was, but I can ride you around this ring as many times as it takes. Between the Aeon Clock, the discrepancies in your claim/results, and the behavioral evidence it's very clear you're scum. Probably the last one, as well.
You might as well have Wessel's death scene prepared. He's going down to my stubborness, apparently.
That sounds advisable. I'm missing for 3 days, so the deadline will be extended by 3 days, to Sunday, June 3rd, at 2:00pm EST.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Night Two (Summer)
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 19 places...
Blue numbers!
iLord = 3 pts [Aestival]
Art = 3 pts [Heat Wave]
MzztrT (r. DM (r. Burst)) = 4 pts [Verdant Majesty X 2]*
Wrath_of_DoG = 0 [Last Word]
Archmage Eternal = 2 pts [Whirlpool]
Wessel = 3 pts (Poppies...poppies![/witch])
DJ Catchem = The missing 4 pts (Mafia NK)
Yanni, Niv, Alpha, Me, Brin, Xyre, kpaca, Iso, IB/Gan_dan = Nada
Fifteen places accounted for, four that aren't. As predicted by me after the analysis of the last three Nights.
Boo. Ya.
That's Tezz in response to Artifice re: the motivate (Heat Wave). Note Tezz confirms he used his ability twice as a result. Again I "boo", again I "ya".
AE quite clearly softclaimed using the Whirlpool ability on kpaca when he asked AGAIN for kpaca to claim his targets for the previous Night. He and I had a short discussion about the productivity of having that conversation again on a different day.
I would like to point out you are perfectly capable of doing something other than math if you'd care to do so.
I would further like to point out this math is important. In the final analysis I am demonstrating that the Mafia NK moves the Aeon Clock. I have established a predictable pattern to support this. This is crucial, because it demonstrates beyond a reasonable doubt that one of the seven point claimed abilities from last Night was in fact not used. In its stead a six point NK was used.
Given other factors (his claim problems, his behavior this game) we know who the liar is.
The math is simply a huge nail in the Wessel coffin.
So far, I feel as if I'm the only person who has taken all of zindabad's warnings about trying non-behavioral analysis to heart. What if someone is removing points? What if the nightkill doesn't require point activation? What if the scum can use their ability and their nightkill? Maybe I have an over active imagination but both you and Wessel are having a math battle, and you really don't know that you are even doing the right math. You could be doing geometry when calculus is needed for all we know.
Kpaca, we know a lot about what caused those numbers. Xyre's ability has provided a wealth of information, and we've been diligent about getting claims. Those two things are why we can apply the math to find discrepancies. Which is what I've done.
Zindabad's point was he randomized most of the roles. That's it. He didn't provide us tools and expect us to ignore them. The Aeon Clock is more than a flavorful way to track the Seasons when combined with enough information.
Then things wouldn't add up. But they are. The whole point here is there are more points then should be there over the course of the game.
Uh...I've pretty well shown that it does.
Evidence suggets this: Mafia NK (+4, +5, +6).
Okay. I've done the point totals for you. What would that mean? How does that fit? I've also suggested a good place to go research the likelihood of that: Zindabad's other games.
All that's required is arithmetic, and that's all I'm doing. Wessel and I are having a logic battle, and I'm destroying him at every turn. Look at the points he brings up to try and counter the argument.
Soon we'll have run out of numbers and then I'll move on to his claim to remind everyone how fluid that's been (the very height of honesty, surely), and then we'll take look at Wessel's behavior at specific times and as a whole.
I'm good with this, as I've already said.
It would have been more planned and thought out if I was scum, when I claimed that information. Hell, I don't think I would have tried something like that.
Okay but what is easy fodder in this context? I have never heard of that saying.
With kpaca saying Xyre is town, I'm going to put him in my town pile, leaving Wessel. Only thing that would say Xyre is scum is Godfather/insanity scenario which I'm inclined to ignore right now. However, Xyre has proven his ability, and so has AI, and for them to have Godfather abilities on top of the pm revealer/daykilling, I won't believe.
Leaving:
PM, kpaca, and Wessel.
PM town points from yesterDay and kpaca from earlier. Wessel has.... the intent to stay alive no matter what. I say go down to 3 in the chamber, Alpha.
Fine, going to be gone for the next 5-7 days for funeral stuff.
Only the one passive. No others.
I went to a bbq of sorts, but it was my computer that was on fire. Both my case fans broke and suddenly my computer seized and burning rubber smell flooded the room. Fun times.
In addition to my cpu problems, I wanted to wait to submit the kill until Zindabad was back. But, you are right in your summary. Even if you don't flip scum, we have another shot. I'm seeing a strong consensus that you need to go one way or the other, and we can make a more informed lynch if necessary once we solve your situation.
Daykill submitted.
Yuck.
Yay! Cake and ice cream for everyone!
"Why was she still there? Just to poke fun?"
"I think she sensed the end was near."
"Indeed - one way or the other, it would all be over soon. The alleged traitor faced the others, her petals floating slightly in the wind. 'I am Hmokaya, the Golden Blooms, and I am the caretaker of all the world's flora. Bring forth the sun; I do not fear it. It only nourishes my charges.'"
"Was she telling it true? The sun wouldn't harm her?"
"The words were mere bravado, my boy. When the others summoned the vast, bloated, tangerine sun and channeled its light and heat, Hmokaya succumbed just as the rest did. For a moment, she seemed to ascend, carried on the rays. Then, like snowflakes, a swirling emptiness took her place. The crisped, grey petals that had formerly made up Hmokaya twisted on the eddies of air."
"And was it over?"
"They waited and waited, murmuring to one another, trying to convince each other that they had not just sacrificed one of their own kin for nothing. The din grew louder and more insistent until it was finally cut by an unearthly sound - the laughter of the Mother. Jagged and hateful, her laughing fit tore at the Elementals' innards, hurting them body and soul. 'What fools you are. What children. You ought to have obeyed your Mother.' Yblisa brought her closed fist up to her face, staring out at the survivors over it, then let it open, spilling forth the remnants of Hmokaya in a grey cascade. 'This is your fate. You rush toward it headlong. Closer and closer. Soon, all will be silent again.'"
"And they were afraid."
"Oh, yes. Their hearts shuddered at the dread words of their Mother. But they looked on one another, and their resolves hardened. They now had to avenge Hmokaya as well as all the others who had fallen in whatever cosmic struggle they had become pawns in...."
Wessel has been killed. He was Hmokaya, the Golden Blooms, Elemental of Flowers.
The Clock has moved forward 17 places and now stands at 42. It remains SUMMER. The harsh sunlight has faded.
Votes have been reset.
***
No answer.
Whenever a player uses an ability, the Clock is affected. If a player uses an ability twice, the Clock is affected twice.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Well, if it's kpaca or Alpha, I'll eat my hat. Pale Mage's results drove DJ to his grave. Which just leaves Brinatoo faking cop investigations on known townies.
I still feel like he's just been playing badly because he's bad, but he's the best suspect at this point.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I agree Brin is the best suspect at this point. The math points to kpaca, but behavior (particularly the early Days) trumps that by a good margin.
If it isn't Brin, we're either looking at Godfather shenanigans or kpaca. Frankly, if either of those is the case I'm pretty sure we're just dead in the water.
Vote: Brinatoo
Pale Mage (1) - kpaca
Brinatoo (1) - Pale Mage
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
The deadline is set for Sunday, June 3rd, at 2:00pm EST. (That's three days from now.)
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
So did I :/
And his math drove Wessel to the grave...I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that Pale Mage is hiding something. His claim feels incomplete, whereas I can envision a role like Brinatoo's being as he claimed. A guaranteed cop investigation that essentially can't be blocked is powerful, regardless of whether it's random or not.
With DJ being pretty much smoked already, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that PM was just pulling a gambit with his roleblock claim.
It seems off to me that you would dump the math you so strongly believed in yesterday because of your behavior read on kpaca.
To be fair, that's the opposite of what he's suggesting.
My gut is telling me to Vote: Pale Mage
Hopefully I don't regret it.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Fair point...deadline IS in two days though.
Unvote
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
...and me makes three.
Pretty sure I was the only one excited by my math. Xyre's mind was made up and everyone else was leaning towards Wessel anyway. In fact, I nearly cleared Wessel on math until I realized I did the math incorrectly the first time.
How does my claim feel incomplete, btw? I have two abilites in Winter. One of them is a one-shot.
Do you even remember my claim, Alpha? Walk me through this one.
Are we reading the same game? Yesterday was going to be a Xyre-Wessel fight without my information. Kpaca and I were voting him the end of the Day prior, but that was it.
What makes you say he was smoked, sir?
Sure, I could be. Pretty dumb gambit, though. And you're ignoring my behavior throughout the entire game.
Basically, the "gambit + math" argument boils down to "Pale is scummy because he was right Yesterday and wrong Today", which is junk.
Yup. There were good behavioral reasons to suspect Wessel. The math added up so I preferred him over Brin. Kpaca's behavior has been pretty norm for him, and the only way he can be scum is if he commited to a strong gambit early in the game after pushing hard on half his team. Possible, but not likely. And if that turns out to be the case he's already won the game as far as I'm concerned.
So, yeah...I'm not taking the math that failed me on a strong suspect and assume it's correct in the face of a poor one.
Well, you will in the short term. But as I said earlier if the last scum isn't Brinatoo we're pretty much screwed, anyway.
Bottom line: If you lynch me today it's for terrible reasons. It shouldn't be the end of the world, though. Unless Brin has an ace up his sleeve we should still be fine.
Make sure you don't. No Lynch gets us no place. Capiche?
I will lynch Pale Mage before nobody, but I would prefer it be Brinatoo.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
As I noted (indirectly) in the next post, this is a classic scum line - acknowledging his accuser's townieness to appear conciliatory. DRey did something very similar to me while I was hoisting him onto the scaffold.
The only way this makes sense in the PM-is-scum school is if PM planned with DJ to bus him from the start, but I still feel like there wasn't enough of a threat to justify such an action, and that would mean the above line was some cleverly-planned admission to try to get his scum buddy cleared, which fails the Occam's Razor test.
(Though I cleared AE and Brinatoo by the Occam's Razor test too, so what do I know.)
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Trying to get points when it wasn't nearly at lylo yet. Either it is a desperate attempt to get towny credit or some other crap scenario is present (godfather or kpaca pulled an excellent gambit from the near beginning)
I vote PM today, if it isn't over then something is up with the cops. Sucky because I would HATE a godfather or w/e this late in the game. 5 months lol
It so sounds like the kind of gambit I'd pull, too. "Gosh, looks like Xyre is dead set on getting Wessel lynched tomorrow, DJC. Tell you what we should do...let's no-kill and I'll claim to have roleblocked you! That way we'll either be down a man or the town will have strong reason to keep you in the spotlight after they lynch Wessel! High-five!!"
My work tends to be better than that. And I don't do desperate things if I'm not in a desperate situation.
Would you just HATE it? Lol?
Any objection to being lynched, Brin?
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Quite. Any objection to being lynched, PM?
I'm going to ignore the existence of godfathers and -> lynch PM and if it's not over by then, kpaca. Otherwise we are screwed.
Will be on later tonight to vote.
Unvote, Vote Pale Mage
See you guys tomorrow.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia