zindabad returned with an answer. It's like I said, if someone is roleblocked, the action never took place, so I will not get a result of no-one targeted my target.
Typo bolded, I assume.
You think a Wessel/DJ scum team is most likely, but why? Just putting the two people who have a wagon against them is not how I usually see who is scum. Also, nice scaremongering you're starting to develop.
Remember, you two and IB were my top three suspects. I was certain IB was scum, and was wrong. I see DJ as more likely scum than anyone else, and while your interactions aren't useful, they aren't exculpatory either. (And the word choice bolded smells of victimization - I'm literally the only person voting for you.)
You'll have to explain the "scaremongering" bit, because I don't get it.
Everyone is scum!
Woooo!
Got a substantive response?
You see DJ Catchem's double voter ability as indicative of him being town?
Reread that line. I was saying that it's less likely he has additional abilities that might end the game tomorrow, and his ability is proven whereas yours are not. So I believe it more likely he's telling the truth about his ability. That says essentially nothing about his alignment.
Also, what does it matter that he can prove that he is a double voter, and I can't 'prove' that I'm a watcher (/doc next season)? How does that make me a better lynch target, or in other words, why does that make me scum?
Okay, first, Confirm Vote on the bolded line, because that is the biggest pile of horse manure I've seen from you and that's saying something.
My suspicion of you has nothing to do with your abilities. I am fully aware the mod randomized (in some way or another) abilities, and have always played on reads rather than abilities. So no, those two questions are NOT the same, and that equivocation was incredibly sleazy. (Redded for emphasis, natch.)
As for the first of the two questions: I'm thinking in terms of minimizing our risk of losing. See the three cases above. The only way I see us losing (barring some player I've written off being scum, to which I'll tip my cap and admit I've been beaten fairly) is if the scum are sandbagging an ability that can change the course of tomorrow. I don't see DJ holding that ability, but I think you do, and that risk worries me more than his double vote.
Just because you attack my argument based on an adjective I used doesn't make my argument less valid.
Again, I see DJ as second most likely to be scum. The adjective had nothing to do with that argument, and everything to do with you.
Regarding role distribution rules, assuming kpaca and Brinatoo are speaking the truth as well, why are there (at least) five investigative roles in this setup? (Me, kpaca, Brinatoo, Alpha and Asian)
What's your point?
Rather than leaping to his defence, I question why you suddenly are trying to cast suspicion on, in this case, Pale Mage.
I don't trust him much - more than you and DJ, but not enough to take his results and subsequent push on face value. Now, can you tell me why you're so ready to jump to his aid?
Your only reason not to lynch DJC now is because he has proved himself to be a double voter. How does that improve his case?
Again, it doesn't, but I find you more suspicious and him less risky to keep alive.
We have 8 people remaining. If we mislynch today and the scum NK someone, we are down to 6. There are probably two scum remaining, so if DJC is one of them, they have three votes. I say that's a pretty good reason to lynch DJC.
6 alive means 4 to lynch, and there's no reason we'd not shoot DJ first if you flipped town. Only way he pulls this off then is if his scum-buddy has some ability that reduces lynch thresholds in addition to whatever he claimed, and they place all their votes/abilities before AI shoots DJ. Oh, and that the game doesn't proceed to Summer tomorrow.
Again, I think you're more dangerous since there's no telling what abilities you have (particularly ones that could be used before we shot you).
'team' was a paraphrase. Why would I quote a role PM?
I just scanned through my role PMs from other games I've been in, and I don't see the word 'team' used in a wincon in ANY of them, for either alignment.
I haven't claimed my name/ability name yet, so here it is: I am Bessamavotha, the Winged Chorus, Elemental of Birdsong. My ability is Voices of the Many and as I explained it's a passive ability but the semi-flavor attached to it is "your feathered allies sing a random player's alignment to you."
Eclipse [active/day/one-shot/any season/+100]: Night descends and the Day ends immediately.
That's about 5 times as powerful as a double voting scum, considering it could be used as a swing of two deaths, saving a scum from being lynched and then getting an effectively instant nightkill.
You're the closest to winning the black market pseudo Az points. So why didn't he fire it once he was caught, eh? Eh?
I think that speaks well of you and kpaca, and Brin to a degree. I'd forgotten to factor in WoD's NK when I first evaluated that, but I still think Void keeping it in his pants carries enough weight for y'all not to be ignored.
Well, yeah. After this game I'm going to yell at zindabad no matter what, just for that ability (and for what must be really screwy randomization rules - e.g. if Alpha and Asian could both be scum, the game would have exploded, so there must be some limitations, but he didn't explicate those limitations, which makes all inquisitions into roles a crapshoot because we're forced to game the mod, which is absurd).
The way I see it, the most likely scum team at this point is Wessel and DJ, although their interactions don't support that, which bothers me. I could also see a Wessel/Pale team that have an ability, like a daykill, sandbagged and hope they can turn this gambit into a win tomorrow.
I definitely can't see a Pale/DJ team, since Pale must know he's only gotten by this far without serious examination because there are so many more overtly-scummy people, and he's not going to make it to the final 2 without getting the once-over.
I'm sorry, the what now? Final 2 what, sir.
Bottom line is I think Wessel is the best lynch candidate and won't move my vote to DJ unless someone profers a damn good reason to do him first.
I've provided a damn good reason. But if you think I'm scum pulling a gambit, Xyre, you should factor in that if you don't hit mafia today, I've already won the game, right?
@Pale Mage: It sure was a lucky shot with the roleblock, considering you only have one season in which you can do anything.[/suspicious] :rolleyes
Dude, I only had a pool of five to choose from. Even if I fired blind into that group I probably had a ten percent chance to stop the NK, possibly as high as twenty percent. But I didn't fire randomly, and I picked the right guy.
The Pool (aka folks who shipped IB to his reward yesterday): Xyre, Alpha, Brin, AE, DJC.
I am Hmokaya, the Golden Blooms, Elemental of Flowers.
I win when the scum are destroyed.
My abilities are quite difficult to explain, but I'll do my best to do so. It's too long to explain all the details (if someone wants me to do so, ask), so I'll just explain the effects.
I have one active ability, called 'Nature's Bounty', which is basically a watcher.
- During any uneven (first, third, fifth, etc) spring and autumn, the identity of anyone targeting my target won't be revealed.
- During any uneven summer, the targeter's identity will be revealed.
- During any winter, I can target someone, but my ability won't work.
- During any even (second, fourth, sixth, etc) spring and autumn, the identity of anyone targeting my target will be revealed.
- During any even summer, the identity of anyone targeting my target will be revealed, and my target is protected from the first kill made against him/her.
N1 I targeted vezokpiraka. No-one targeted him that night.
N2 I targeted AlphaInsidious. No-one targeted him that night.
N3 I targeted infectiousbaloth. The ability was delayed, and fizzled because he was lynched D4.
N4 I targeted AlphaInsidious. No-one targeted him that night.
Can you explain the bold?
Why did you choose Vezok Night One? Why IB on Night Three?
You're complaining about fearmongering here, while painting me as a threat tomorrow. The season likely changes by then, and I'll lose my double vote. where's the threat I pose at that point?
I like the way you point out that my vote takes you to L-1. What does that have to do with Xyre's case on you? Nice misdirection there.
Your 'scumslip' is flat out wrong. I can't hammer this point home enough. I paraphrased the entire rest of my claim. Twice. Why would I copy that part over? I was the first person to point out an issue with claim phrasing in this game. Do you honestly think I would then turn around and make a rookie mistake like that?
You said: 'I could also see a Wessel/Pale team that have an ability, like a daykill, sandbagged and hope they can turn this gambit into a win tomorrow.'
You're scaremongering people into thinking I might have something up my sleeve, so I should be lynched. Why? Because I 'could' have something up my sleeve. That's scaremongering.
It's only scaremongering if my intentions are impure and my argument is unsound. Neither is true. Tell me why I'm wrong, rather than calling my argument names.
You see a possible DJC/Wessel scum team, due to us being your apparent top two scumspects. You see a possible DJC/Brinatoo scum team that could possibly have a hidden ability to win. You see a possible Wessel/Pale Mage scumteam with something up our sleeve.
Don't equivocate. I clearly said some of those cases were far more likely than others.
His proven ability can end the game tomorrow, after Alpha misvigs.
See where I said "we shoot DJ first thing tomorrow"?
Right. So you just think that because I 'could' have a game ending ability, you rather lynch me. Right, ok. Well, I can't defend myself against those kinds of arguments. Other than that if DJ Catchem is indeed scum, he has proven to have an extra vote, which, if there are two scum remaining on a player base of six players, is a very strong position for the scum.
Oh, woe is me!
You could respond to my case from yesterday. You could argue against my probabilistic argument. You could do pretty much anything, but so far you've chosen to switch between sitting on your thumbs and holding an "I'm with scum" sign with an arrow pointed to DJ.
And it's interesting that you skipped over the first two paragraphs completely. Care to defend yourself there?
But you chose to attack the argument not for its merit, but for the adjective I used. You're discarding the argument, and chose to divert it by attacking me on the adjective I used.
(sigh)
Because I think the entire "team" "slip" is WIFOM. There's no way to know what word he might come up with in a paraphrase; barring a more clear-cut case, I don't think it's evident enough. Besides, I'd much rather concentrate on the play itself, and yours is worse than his.
Well, you say you find it nonsensical role distribution that the scum would have a double voter. Is it not equally nonsensical that there are five investigative roles? But why is it nonsensical for the scum to have a double voter? Why can't there be a double voter in the scum team, while there are also roles like Void's?
It's all nonsensical. I recognize he could be a scum double voter (and if he is, zindabad will get a larger earful), and am not confirming him on his ability. But I doubt he has any additional abilities, whereas I don't know that for you.
Well, because after DJC's scumslip regarding his 'team', I find it extremely likely that he is scum, and that Pale Mage is actually town. As I've explained before, the way I see it is that either PM is town and DJC is scum, or the other way around. So I defend Pale Mage because I think he's town. If you're going to suddenly attack Alpha or AE, I will react the same.
Hmm. Still seems too eager, but there's no way to make anything of it right now, so I'll set it aside.
How likely do you think I have some sort of game ending ability, one that is 'more game ending' than DJC's double voting ability?
As stated previously, the only way DJ's double vote matters is if the scum can somehow pull off a lynch before Alpha submits his daykill on DJ. That is essentially impossible.
I don't say it's likely that DJC will singlehandedly (or with the help of his teammate) be able to pull off a mislynch tomorrow if we mislynch today. But it is a fallacy that I should be lynched first because I could perhaps have a dangerous ability. I have no problem with the fact that anyone would rather lynch his #1 suspect than his #2 suspect. If you find me more suspicious than DJC, fine, go for my lynch. But I do take issue with your argument that there exists a chance that I have a hidden ability, I should therefore be lynched first. There also exists a chance that DJC has a hidden ability that he hasn't told about, isn't there?
Speaking as a guy who's written a setup or two, and who's seen the PMs in this game, such a role (combining a double vote and some other ability that might aid a double vote) is far more implausible than you just straight-up fabricating investigation results.
I want you lynched because I suspect you most. But I argue it is also the best play in this situation, because it reduces volatility the most. There is very little chance a team with DJ (and not you) could pull off the win tomorrow before we throw the spanner in their works. While the risk isn't likely much greater for you, it is still greater, and that worries me.
Thinking in terms of risk is not a fallacy. We win no matter what game state we reach so long as we don't fall below the fatal threshold; hence, it stands to reason that we can win so long as we set a course that will catch all the scum before they kill enough townies. Both your course and mine are likely to accomplish that, so then we must decide which course is less likely to fail if the scum have an ace hidden, which in turn requires us to consider what kind of aces they might have, and how threatening they are. If DJ is scum, I postulate the mafia are doomed no matter what, because his ability isn't useful for the reasons noted above.
But say we lynch DJ today, and he flips town. The most likely scum team is you and Pale, but we don't know if you two have abilities we don't know about that might flip the game around. (There are several that could work.) And those abilities would be far harder to stop, because if they're night abilities we can't preempt them, and if they're day abilities it becomes contingent upon beating Alpha to the thread - and I'd rather the game not boil down to a footrace.
Yup, I made an error there. My N4 action resulted in a 'no result'. It did fire, and I did get a pm, but I did not get a result. Because I did not get a result of someone targeted him, I erroneously wrote that no-one targeted him.
So, what, the point of the ability in winter is just to move the clock?
Okay, here's a question: if DJ is scum, who do you think his scum buddy could be? Definitely not Pale Mage. The only people who spring to mind are Wessel (who's probably busing him) or Brinatoo (highly unlikely).
The lack of plausible scum buddies besides Wessel, combined with the fact that Wessel is the most likely scum buddy for all other possible suspects, is one more argument for Wessel first, I feel.
Final two people alive (what you'd need to get to to win as scum). Say the game gets down to you, me, AI, and, say, kpaca. I know who I'm going to suspect first, and it ain't kpaca.
I've provided a damn good reason. But if you think I'm scum pulling a gambit, Xyre, you should factor in that if you don't hit mafia today, I've already won the game, right?
It's very unlikely there are more than 2 scum alive. Odds are good we wake up tomorrow to four townies and two scum, which gives us a window for both a vig and a lynch, barring shenanigans.
Anywho, see below. I still want DJC first.
You mean the RB thing? It's plausible, but as noted previously, I still think Wessel is the higher-value lynch. Plus saving DJ for tomorrow means we can shoot him and then lynch you were he to turn up town, which I expect would pretty much guarantee a scum hit.
The question is not whether or not you are stupid, it's why you used the term 'team'. Your paraphrased win condition is too similar to the scum win condition that I don't think it's a coincidence.
If you don't think I made the mistake out of sheer stupidity, that's fine.
But why, in that case, would I use a word like that if I was scum, knowing full well that people are watching claim wording so closely?
By the way...you keep saying WIFOM here; you do realize that goes both ways, right?
Could you please explain more? I see Alpha's point, but I don't see yours.
It's strange that Void didn't use his ability. Maybe he forgot, or did he do it on purpose? If the day ended then and there, what would have happened?
Firstly, we would suspect Void even more as he was the #1 suspect at that moment.
Secondly, the Aeon clock would also have been moved by +100. The scum team must therefore have known that for this game, it was not just important that the clock was in a certain season, but also that the years would have accounted for some differences. That is because although +100 is a substantial increase on the clock, other than changing the year it does not do anything other to the clock, one might say. Void might not have wanted to trigger passive abilities that would have happened in a year, perhaps? It does strengthen my own case, now I think of it, because if I would have been a teammate of Void, he could have ended the day to get a free NK, and my abilities would have been stronger (as my abilities are stronger in the second year.)
Thirdly, the day would have ended without a vig shot or a lynch, which is a plus for the scum because it's basically a free NK.
But I still don't know why Void didn't use his ability. What's your take on it, Pale Mage?
Think about the board state at the time. Kpaca had come forward with his investigation on Void. Brinatoo had come forward with his information and claim. Alpha had come forward with his claim. And the part I forgot to factor in when I initially went through this: A mafiate had died during the Night to a vig or SK (obviously we know now it was SK, but we don't know what Void or the scum team as whole's opinion was on that).
So, Void has every reason to believe he's going down to the Daykill. So why not end the Day and go to Night for value? Keep in mind Void had just replaced in and was forced to claim, so his role PM would be fresh in his mind for those two reasons (i.e. it is unlikely he simply didn't remember or realize he could use that ability).
The simplest reason is that the value equation doesn't look like it's going to work out in his team's favor. It was Spring. Moving the Clock forward 100 puts us back in Spring, yes? So that would give kpaca another investigation. Alpha would still have his Daykill in his pants. If we ended up waking up again in Spring, then Brin would have more information, too. I believe Void deliberately held on to his one-shot because going to Night was bad value in his estimation (possibly all of theirs depending on the communication rules).
I can tilt my head when I look at it and come up with that pointing to one of the two major players as his scum buddy, but I think the simpler explanation that there were simply too many targets to neutralize for it to be worth ending the Day is the correct one.
Yup, I made an error there. My N4 action resulted in a 'no result'. It did fire, and I did get a pm, but I did not get a result. Because I did not get a result of someone targeted him, I erroneously wrote that no-one targeted him.
On night 1, I could only watch someone to see whether someone targeted him. It's quite weak, so I did not have much options, so I used the following tactic:
I thought vezokpiraka was scum. If my result would return in 'no-one targeted him', and on D2 someone would say 'I investigated vezok and he's town' (or scum, depending on which way the scum would want to pull off their tactic), I could say 'Aha! I've got you there!'
And if my result would return in 'someone targeted him', I would at least know that someone targeted him.
What led you to believe (if Vezok was scum) that the scum team would want to pull the gambit you described?
You thought you got a result on Alpha last Night, is that correct?
For infectiousbaloth, again because it was autumn I could only investigate whether someone targeted him. But with IB, it had an benefit because he claimed to have an ability that could swap roles, and then claimed to have Iso's 'postponement' ability. I wanted to use my weak role to see if he was telling the truth, which would also tell me if Iso was telling the truth about his ability. Regretfully, Iso was nightkilled by WoD, and then IB was lynched the following day, so I never got my results.
If IB had lived, what would your expected results have been? Like would you have gotten results for the immediate previous Night or all Nights your ability was "on the stack" so to speak.
What was your position on Iso's claim and the Clock movements back when he claimed, btw?
Final two people alive (what you'd need to get to to win as scum). Say the game gets down to you, me, AI, and, say, kpaca. I know who I'm going to suspect first, and it ain't kpaca.
Apparently I've gotten much worse as scum if you think I'd let a Daykiller, a cop/tracker, and a veteran who doesn't trust me stroll into an Lylo scenario with me. Have some wine...but seriously, dude. I can be gutsy, but I'm not suicidal as scum unless I have to be.
It's very unlikely there are more than 2 scum alive. Odds are good we wake up tomorrow to four townies and two scum, which gives us a window for both a vig and a lynch, barring shenanigans.
You mean the RB thing? It's plausible, but as noted previously, I still think Wessel is the higher-value lynch. Plus saving DJ for tomorrow means we can shoot him and then lynch you were he to turn up town, which I expect would pretty much guarantee a scum hit.
If we have the room you believe we have, lynching Wessel first is a waste of time. You lynch me or DJC and force the scum team to choose between the Daykill tomorrow or kpaca's investigation results.
You keep assuming we have Alpha in the morning, btw. Why?
And odds are pretty good we wake up with 1 scum and five townies tomorrow if we lynch DJC. You're bending over backwards to try and justify not lynching the obvious choice whilst avoiding the most logical reason not to do so: That I'm pulling a gambit.
We're on a deadline. If you really don't trust me, go ahead and give me that once over. Otherwise vote for DJC. My vote's not moving.
Well then, if your intentions are pure and sound, you should base your arguments on provable facts.
Thank god mafia is a game of provable facts, then, or we'd be screwed.
I'm feeling sassy, be forewarned.
Ok. So you think it is most likely that DJC and I are the two remaining scum, do you? Would you be so kind as to list your reasons why that would be? Because we are your top two suspects? Because of our interactions? Because of what?
I've gone over this many times before. I made cases on both of you in the past, you two are the two highest remaining suspects on my list (after IB), etc. I'm not going to reiterate it, because I suspect I'm going to have to reiterate a lot of stuff in this post anyway - go find them yourself.
But what if we don't progress to the summer? It is very likely, you said so yourself. But then DJC is still a double voter, and Alpha can't vig him, right? So what then?
Didn't say the bolded.
I'll grant that they could shoot AI, though. I'm frankly a bit surprised they haven't already.
I have responded in full to your case from yesterday. Your probabilistic argument is non-constructive. I am busy defending myself against both you and DJC. You are slandering me.
I'll go find the responses to follow them up, because I don't feel like they exist, but I could be wrong.
The bolded sentence is the only "slander" that has appeared in this discussion.
I didn't respond to that single argument because I was looking at it from the wrong angle. I wondered how you used your theory that I have a sort of hidden ability to deduce that therefore I am the more likely scum. But now I see that your theory just stems from your view I am the more likely scum. Which again begs the question why you even use that argument? If you believe I am more likely scum than DJ Catchem, why don't you attack me based on that, and not some unlikely scenario?
I did, and still am, but I'm also arguing that lynching you is the best play in general, because I believe that argument and believe using that argument to sway people is the right play as well.
He could also have come up with other words, like 'town', or 'you', or anything else, or not have said 'team' at all. But no, he wrote it in practically the same way as the scum win condition. You think it's just a coincidence? DJ Catchem is just that 4,512,325,125th monkey who finally typed Shakespeare's works? Why did his paraphrased win condition look so much like the scum win condition?
It's WIFOM. I have no idea how his mental thesaurus works, and think there are plenty of pieces of evidence that are better for indicting him. I'm also concerned about your motives in pursuing him.
I thought DJC was your #2 scum suspect? Why are you now using arguments that go directly against the rules put forth by our mod regarding role distribution to defend why he is not able to be scum?
You misunderstand. I think he's scum. But scum or town, I doubt he has any ability on top of his double vote.
[anchor=link]I[/alink] recognize that fear for the unknown is always greater than the fear for the known. I agree that with DJC, we can safely assume that his ability is as he says, a double voter in spring and autumn. Now if we do as you say, and lynch me, I want to be absolutely certain that we can't lose. We have eight people remaining. If we lynch me, and someone is NK'd tonight, that leaves six people with at most four town. That doesn't seem too bad. However, what if the scum have an extra NK up their sleeve? That's as likely as the possibility that I have a game ending ability that I haven't told about. If that's the case, what happens then? It's not 100% waterproof.
I didn't say it is. I'm saying there are fewer sleeves. Though I will admit if they do have an extra NK...
Hmm. Yeah, that's fair. The mafia have already shown themselves to make kills unpredictably, and sandbagging an extra kill and hitting AI would be a reasonable play.
**** it, everything on red. Unvote, Vote DJ Catchem
I'm coming for your head tomorrow, Wessel.
@ the claim: Okay, that makes more sense. Obviously doesn't confirm you, or confirm that you don't have more abilities, but that makes that possibility feel a bit less likely, since I wouldn't expect you to false claim a role with a functional defect and stand behind it.
"Spring had come, but only to the Elementals, and even then it was a pitiful spring, bereft of light, laughter, and the green scent of growing things. Many began to openly wonder if there was any point to rooting out the final traitors. Perhaps they ought to surrender to Yblisa after all, and put a merciful end to it all."
"How could they say that? Humanity needed then!"
"They saw the world about them reduced to a circumference of bland light, pale grass, and the eternal Clock. All else was frozen in unending cessation, a blizzard that would neither end nor resume. All the Elementals had been created to protect lay outside the Clock grounds, imprisoned in nothingness, with seemingly no prospect of rebirth. They had failed in their mission, and as they were created to be single-minded in their purposes, they thought it better simply to pass into oblivion."
"...Perhaps it was."
"You were always too quick to give up, Dina."
"You were always too slow to realize you'd lost, Umry."
"Quiet, the pair of you. In spite of their despair, some still believed - perhaps naively - that if they destroyed the traitors and recaptured the Mother, they could imprison her in the Clock once more and set the world to right."
"'Recapture' her? Only Voes had that power. What a foolish hope."
"A foolish hope is better than none, my dear."
"...You, too, Sidi? A blinkered optimist?"
"If they failed in their mission, creation would surely be annihilated. Yes, perhaps the world would end even if they were successful, but it was a chance they had to take - and one they seized on eagerly, once an Elemental stepped forward and accused Kae Kae Zhun, the Regent of Seasons."
"What was his role?"
"He administered Spring and Autumn, resplendent in his robes of green and yellow, then later brown and bronze. During those two seasons, he was like Voes's deputy."
"A powerful Elemental, then."
"Aye, and one well known to all. He stepped forward and spread his arms, addressing the crowd. 'You all know me. Many times I have aided you in your problems, ensuring that we can all best serve the Father. These accusations are nothing but paranoia, and I forgive them.'"
"How did the others react?"
"They nodded, murmuring among themselves, and for a moment it looked as though Kae Kae Zhun might survive. Then, he saw the Reaper."
"The Reaper was there!?"
"Unknown to the rest, but yes, it was present. Resting one shadowy appendage on the side of the Aeon Clock, the wavering, incomprehensible form of the Reaper watched Kae Kae Zhun intently. He broke off mid-sentence, the words drying up on his tongue, as he caught sight of the Reaper. All eyes followed his, but the Reaper was visible only to the Regent of Seasons."
"What did it do?"
"It watched. After a long silence, one of the Elementals tentatively asked, 'Kae Kae Zhun, what do you see?' 'See? Nothing. Nothing. There's nothing there. Do you see anything? I didn't think so.' Another pregnant pause. Then, abruptly, the Reaper shook its head, turned its back on Kae Kae Zhun, and stalked away, fading into shadow. 'No! Master, why do you walk away?' he shrieked involuntarily, the words coming before he could stop them. 'Master...?' one of the onlookers asked accusingly. 'Stop! Come back! Master, why have you forsaken me?' Kae Kae Zhun entreated the dark being even with his last breath, as the others seized his arms and prepared to tear him apart."
"...So he was one of them."
"The struggle was truly coming to its end now. Unknown powers were taking a hand, and the Elementals were left without clear direction. Another traitor was dead, yes, but Kae Kae Zhun bequeathed them questions, not answers. Who was his 'Master'? What was its purpose? Was there any point to all of this? Where was Voes? Those questions followed them into the night...."
DJ Catchem has been lynched. He was Kae Kae Zhun, Regent of Seasons, Elemental of the Solstice. It is now Night 5. The deadline for night actions is set for Monday, May 21st, at 11:00am EST. If you send in night actions earlier, night can end sooner.
***
The same clarification that I gave regarding iLord's role title applies to DJC as well, except in reverse.
"Again, the sound of the Aeon Clock served as wake-up call for the survivors. Clang! Clang! Clang! Clang! Summer had come again, as ephemeral as the spring before it. The world remained unchanged outside the Clock grounds; within them, another one of the Elementals had met his final end."
"Who was it?"
"This time, it was Lheraz Bex, a much-maligned Elemental, infamous for his scheming. Known as the Watery Manipulator, he constantly plotted to expand his powers. Many of the Elementals had long suspected him as being part of the conspiracy, but there was no sign of any treachery, and they were forced to conclude that his ambition had not propelled him into Yblisa's arms; he was innocent."
"And still no sign of Voes."
"He wasn't coming. He never cared."
"Indeed, it was not the Father who appeared to witness the new dawn...but his sister."
"Yblisa was back!?"
"As the Elementals gathered in silent contemplation over Lheraz Bex's body, they heard the monstrous, flat, ineffable laughter of their Mother from behind them. Spinning to confront her, they saw only a shadowy image of her, tall and intimidating. 'Surprised to see me?' she mocked, curvaceous lips drawn back in a gruesome, sharp smile. 'You thought to destroy me? Not even he could do that. You have succeeded in banishing me beyond the Clock grounds, for a time. Now I walk the still world outside your sanctum, glorying in its silence.'"
"How could she survive out there?"
"Yblisa existed before Time itself, as you remember. 'You'll stay out there forever!' blustered one of the Elementals. The boast fell flat. Yblisa's smile widened. 'I think not, my wayward child. You remain locked in there, inside the Clock bubble - like a prison. How do you like being imprisoned, you traitorous scum? I have rather had my fill of it. Soon enough, the Clock will fail, I shall return, and consign this entire world to oblivion! So by all means, continue to play out your farce, you condemned fools. Whether you choose wrong or right, it makes no difference: all will end."
"She was bluffing."
"How were they to know?"
"So what did they do?"
"All that they could do - choose another one of their number for sacrifice, hoping that the Mother's words were nothing but lies. There they struggled, under Yblisa's baleful eyes, wondering if it had all been for nothing...."
Archmage Eternal, Lheraz Bex, the Watery Manipulator, Elemental of Tides, has been killed.
It is now Day 6. With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch. The deadline is set for Thursday, May 31st, at 4:00pm EST.
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 22 places and now stands at 25. It is now SUMMER.
Lol. That would be interesting. I actually thought of that idea for a game yesterday, "npc" to vote for with riddles.
/agree
I'm thinking one scum left. Otherwise a 3 to 1 ratio to start out seems pushing it.
Town:
Me
Alpha (investigation)
PM (actions yesterday caught a scum)
kpaca (behavior day 1 with day 2 investigation to scum strongly hints at town)
Left:
Wessel
Xyre
Things to do:
Have Alpha shoot either Wessel or Xyre, then lynch the other, gg?
Likely. But rather than just start stacking bodies like cordwood, let's gather up the data and make sure we're not missing anything.
In addition, I'm sure Xyre would like to make good on his promise from Yesterday.
I agree we're probably down to just one mafia. Pretty sure Zindabad told us as much in the lynch scene Yesterday. Good chance it's Wessel, but not a slam dunk.
I doubt my vote on Yblisa will amount to anything...but if Zindy's going to throw down flavor I don't mind following it to a dead end if it isn't going to take more than a votecount. The Yblisa thing is probably just built into his story arc.
It's late, and I'm about to shut down my computer, but I wanted to say that I targeted kpaca last night, but according to the mod's pm, nobody successfully targeted him last night.
That's crazy talk.
I will answer all questions tomorrow (real life), including yours, Pale Mage. The numbers of my ability are +3 +5 +7, btw.
I'm glad the DJ thing worked out. Now, back to business:
Vote Wessel
Between behavior and results, everyone else is essentially confirmed. So I say we have AI shoot him and pop the Champagne. If he flips town, I consent to being lynched, because I'm very confident that will not happen, and even if it does there's really no way the mafia can win tomorrow barring some strange hidden ability.
I investigated xyre, he was town. I say shoot wessel, if we're still here lynch Pale Mage. Should be simple.
I don't think we'll still be here. Why me if we are still here, though? Also, I'd like to know the numbers on you're Spring ability, as well as if you can explain why AE's ability failed on you Night One (a simple "yes" or "no" works for me on that one).
Actually, I can wait on that second thing for if we're still here. It's probably something to do with Wessel in the first place.
Well, I didn't have a lot of possible options. If I can only see whether someone targeted someone else, what do I learn from that? The only way it can make a difference is if someone claims to have targeted him and I can say that that wasn't so. If I had targeted a townie, what would I have gained by that? If that townie hadn't been targeted, why would scum claim they had targeted him? And if that townie had been targeted, he could have been targeted by any number of people, I still wouldn't have known anything. So I made the calculation that I would only gain possible information if I targeted scum, no-one targeted him, and the scum would run a gambit that they did target him.
See, that would only work out for you if the scum pull a gambit involving a lie that ties himself to another scum. It's a fairly specific set of circumstances. A more natural thought process for a townie would be "at least I can confirm or refute claimed targets later in the game". In other words, something more general than what you claim to have been trying.
I got a result of no result. Mistakenly I put it down as a copy of N1 and N2 with 'no-one targeted him', while I meant 'no result'.
Maybe. Or you surmised no one targeted him since you had a better view of the board than you should have had.
I thought I would only get results for N3.
Then this conveniently would do more to confirm that you could target people with something non-lethal more than anything else.
I thought it was pretty much impossible to reach five clock rotations. I myself could only move the clock by +3 at the time (or +7 at most, late game), and I couldn't see how we would get at least +500 during this whole game.
But you had strong reason to believe the Clock could make it all the way 'round at least one time, and possibly more, right? I see that you mentioned we probably didn't have a reset in the game (post 915, I think), but that was as far as your thinking took you, apparently.
My first instinct said Iso was lying, specifically because he was so secretive about his abilities, only saying that we would love to have it. That in my mind only made Iso to a big target for a NK.
Wait, what? Why bring an NK thought process into this? But since you did...why would that have made Iso too big a target for the NK?
Why? What would it gain us? And wasn't WoD Yblisa?
WoD was Yblisa. I'm just wondering if Zindabad is pulling something fun and weird given that this is a Specialty and the Daybreak flavor scene. It costs us like nothing to explore it, so I am.
Why?
'Cause I don't think for a second AE wouldn't target Kpaca again last Night without a restraining order. He'd pretty much made it his mission in life to only pursue kpaca. He invested heavily; he would have seen it through.
I doubt I can convince you of not shooting me. But if I can ask a favour of you guys, please keep me alive a few real life days longer, so that people will still answer the questions I asked them (specifically, Brin + PM).
Anyway, in my view Xyre is now the most confirmed townie. Then Alpha, then kpaca. So for me it's between Brinatoo and Pale Mage. I would opt for Brinatoo dead first.
Just out of curiosity though, kpaca, why did you investigate Xyre and not me?
Xyre and Alpha are both wholly confirmed at this point (or as best they can be without actually reading their respective role PMs). Neither makes sense as scum short of "more than one scum left" (very unlikely) or "Godfather" (possible, but not very likely). Well, I guess something really screwy could be up with kpaca's investigation ability, but if the only clue we've got to that is Brin's claim that his results are guaranteed sane, that would be fairly bastardly of Zindabad. But that's only a concern if Xyre is actually the last scum, anyway, and behaviorally that isn't likely in the first place.
If you're town, Brin or kpaca is my pool. Pretty sure we can get through that if need be.
"DRey, it's time to ignore Iso", followed by an ad hom. Not liking this, Artifice.
But I tend to agree with your reasoning about Iso's claim though. It just seems too much for an ability like this. I mean, even if the aeon clock changes by 40 or 50 each day+night combined (rough guess), that would mean the game should progress at least some 10 days? Doubt it.
Also, coupled with the fact that Iso is a self-proclaimed Master Fakeclaimer, I have worries about his reasoning for shouting it out so loudly he has this power role? Is it just to flush out the power roles?
And one last thing, I doubt there's a reset ability. Unless Iso can show me where zindabad has made it clear that this is in fact possible, I am not believing his claim.
There's one post thought that makes me wonder whether Iso is indeed scum, which is this one, where zindabad apparently pm'd Iso. Did you pm him, zindabad? (Don't think I'll get an answer ;))
Here's 915. Actually, you took a stab at prediction the Clock movements, so that point is retracted, Wessel.
You don't believe Pale Mage could have run a gambit?
It doesn't seem likely that he would do/say the things of day 5. If we head into day 7 with (I'm guessing 3 by tomorrow with shot lynch and nk) a scum still among us, and I'm still alive, then yes I will start to rethink it as a gambit.
I also hope that AE flipping town lends more credence to my alignment.
I doubt I can convince you of not shooting me. But if I can ask a favour of you guys, please keep me alive a few real life days longer, so that people will still answer the questions I asked them (specifically, Brin + PM).
Anyway, in my view Xyre is now the most confirmed townie. Then Alpha, then kpaca. So for me it's between Brinatoo and Pale Mage. I would opt for Brinatoo dead first.
Just out of curiosity though, kpaca, why did you investigate Xyre and not me?
Because I have a hard time reading Xyre, but I feel pretty confidant in my read on you. Xyre's alignment checking out affirms this belief in me.
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I don't think we'll still be here. Why me if we are still here, though? Also, I'd like to know the numbers on you're Spring ability, as well as if you can explain why AE's ability failed on you Night One (a simple "yes" or "no" works for me on that one).
Actually, I can wait on that second thing for if we're still here. It's probably something to do with Wessel in the first place.
I just have you over Brinatoo tbh. It's obviously not AI. I mean, even if AI is scum, he's won.
My Spring ability +5,+6,+7 I'm pretty sure. I can't completely remember tbh. I'll go check if you want a definite answer.
I have no idea why abilities failed on me.
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I understand what you're trying to do with the numbers, but answer me this: Do you think nightkills advance the clock?
I'm not certain what the effect of the NK is on the Clock yet. Might have an answer soon.
Because I wouldn't think someone as town would out himself so quickly with such a powerful ability, especially if it's early days and you don't know how the clock mechanism works.
I need to look back over your initial comment. I may have misinterpreted what you said.
I think it's likely that AE targeted kpaca. My pm stated that no-one successfully targeted kpaca last night (look back at my first post of the day), implying that it could very well be that someone had tried, but did not succeed (possibly because he was nightkilled).
Your claim did not make any distinction between successful and unsuccessful "targeting". On top of which, what would unsuccessful targeting be, anyway?
You'd have me believe that the way your results is given to you has changed, and doesn't match your claim.
This smells more like you created results to hedge your bets.
I totally agree with you here. I think it's unlikely zindabad would be a bastard mod.
He can be a bastard mod to a degree. I just think that's too bastardly.
Quote:
I have no idea why abilities failed on me.
Plural?
It was 5,6,7.
Singular? Are you trying to make a semantical point or something? I don't know how any abilities stopped from reaching me, or even if any abilities were actually used on me. As such, abilities.
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Ive read you as scum, but cant read xyre. So it makes sense to read xyre in the situation. If xyre is town, then I pat myself on the back. If xyre is scum, then perhaps I cant read you that well.
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After DJ Catchem hammered InfectiousBaloth, I did a reread of my notes why I thought he would be town. I have come to the realization (not influenced by the fact DJC hammered IB) that post 127 does not necessarily make him town. However, I still see him as more likely to be town.
What was your realization based on? Was post 127 your only reason for having him as town?
This kinda feels like a way for you to cover your bases on DJC before his likely lynch that day. You cast doubt but don't commit to him being scum; you do the opposite, actually.
Now, did you actually make a case on me, or are you just trying to drive a quick wagon at the start of the day before anyone is paying attention?
I see you talked about rereading me at one point.
You called me out for the role reveal thing yesterday, and ignored my reply.
Did I miss anything?
If PM is running a gambit, this would be the conversation following the decision made out of thread. I keep reading it over to try to figure out if this is fake animosity or not.
It's late, and I'm about to shut down my computer, but I wanted to say that I targeted kpaca last night, but according to the mod's pm, nobody successfully targeted him last night.
I will answer all questions tomorrow (real life), including yours, Pale Mage. The numbers of my ability are +3 +5 +7, btw.
Xyre town? Ok.
I doubt I can convince you of not shooting me. But if I can ask a favour of you guys, please keep me alive a few real life days longer, so that people will still answer the questions I asked them (specifically, Brin + PM).
DRey asked for a temporary stay of execution as well...
Quote from Wessel »
Just out of curiosity though, kpaca, why did you investigate Xyre and not me?
Well sure, it's a specialty after all, and it could be that kpaca is a 50% cop or something, but I don't want to see it like that. If it's between Brinatoo and kpaca, I think it's far more likely that Brinatoo lied about being guaranteed sane, trying to protect Void perhaps, while casting doubt on kpaca.
I think both roles can exist quite peacefully in the same game. What I find curious is that you are bringing up the possibility of tainted results over faked ability. Speaks to inside knowledge rather than genuine suspicion of them lying.
You'd be my favorite to daykill if I had to shoot immediately.
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
Well, there is something very wrong with your reasoning. Why is there any need to investigate Xyre before you investigate me? The only reason I could think of is if you believe the game will go on after my death (thereby not immediately giving you Xyre's alignment), resulting either from the fact that I am town, or because there would be more than one scum remaining. But you already said that you don't think there are more than one scum remaining, which means you're not sure about my alignment. But if you're not sure about my alignment, why not investigate me?
Well, I'm not sure of anyones alignment, and like I said, I am more sure of yours than of my ability to read Xyre. So, obv I investigate Xyre. I don't have to be sure of your alignment to think you are scum. I'm sorry you are stuck in your own sort of mafia theory, we can discuss how I'm making the correct decisions post game.
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Also I just read your whole above post and it's a bunch of balogna. You take so many different stances on what "this could mean" that you have effectively provided us a bunch of nothing analysis followed by "kill people in this order kthanx". Even if you do turn up to be town lol at listening to your analysis.
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...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over.
Please correct me if my math is wrong or if I've forgotten something.
I've only done the math on the past two Nights, so there may yet be a pattern that reveals itself that may suggest a reason for the discrepencies. Personally, I wonder if it has to do with either successful/unsuccessful kills or something, or perhaps is connected with the mystery of AE's failed attempt on kpaca Night One.
The more important thing that the totals suggest to me is that Wessel was indeed doing something that moved the Clock. I have confirmation from on high that if I 'block somebody who tried to take an action, the ability would still affect the Clock. So, unless Zindabad allows his mafiates to prosecute a kill and use an ability in the same Night without Motivation, than Wessel shouldn't be our primary suspect today.
I haven't gone back yet to look at Zindabad's other games to see if there is a clue there regarding the NK + ability possibility. Feel free to do that yourselves rather than wait on me. Or wait on me. Whichever.
I will say that the wording of Artifice's ability makes me think it is unlikely. Not impossible, though.
To be clear: Wessel isn't in my townie pile. Behaviorally, he's my favorite to walk the plank. However, given the data I think Brinatoo might be the better DK nominee.
I can flesh this stuff out later if any of it is confusing, but I'm running out of time:
Looked over Xyre and Wessel over Night. Found some good things about Xyre, some questionable things about Wessel.
Xyre, Alpha, and kpaca are in the green pile. Frankly, if kpaca has been pulling a gambit this entire game (and I only have a couple of minor points that even make me consider the possiblity) he can have the win as far as I'm concerned. He's earned it.
Brinatoo has been a non-entity for most of this game. A lot of what I like about him is that he feels like he posts from a place of innocence a lot of the time. However, I recognize this is a fairly big blind spot for me. Under pressure he's been pretty bad, resorting to quoting the dictionary and such. I suggest all of you read Brinatoo independently.
Or Alpha could just shoot him. I'm good with that, too. It's Wessel or Brin at this point, and the Clock suggests Brin.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over. Unless we assume Wessel used the NK and not his claimed 7 pt ability, in which case we are right on the money.
Alpha - Please shoot Wessel so we can all go home.
It does because my original math had AE's ability wrong. His purple for the "target me" ability was only 4. That leaves us 6 points shy. I know that if I RB something it still affects the Clock. Theory: The blocked NK was worth 6 pts.
Now, look at the math for last Night. We're one point over. Assume Wessel is lying about using his Watcher ability (7 pts), and replace it with an NK (6 pts). The math adds up.
Look, we can go back and take a look at the next previous Nights if you'd like to be sure. I think we'll find the same thing: There will be an unaccounted for number of points. That's the NK.
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Pale Mage
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DJC (4) - PM, Brinatoo, Wessel, Alpha
Brinatoo (2) - DJC, DJC
Wessel (1)- Xyre
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
You are reminded that the deadline is set for Thursday, May 24th, at 8:00pm EST.
The harsh sun has returned.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Typo bolded, I assume.
Remember, you two and IB were my top three suspects. I was certain IB was scum, and was wrong. I see DJ as more likely scum than anyone else, and while your interactions aren't useful, they aren't exculpatory either. (And the word choice bolded smells of victimization - I'm literally the only person voting for you.)
You'll have to explain the "scaremongering" bit, because I don't get it.
Woooo!
Got a substantive response?
Reread that line. I was saying that it's less likely he has additional abilities that might end the game tomorrow, and his ability is proven whereas yours are not. So I believe it more likely he's telling the truth about his ability. That says essentially nothing about his alignment.
Okay, first, Confirm Vote on the bolded line, because that is the biggest pile of horse manure I've seen from you and that's saying something.
My suspicion of you has nothing to do with your abilities. I am fully aware the mod randomized (in some way or another) abilities, and have always played on reads rather than abilities. So no, those two questions are NOT the same, and that equivocation was incredibly sleazy. (Redded for emphasis, natch.)
As for the first of the two questions: I'm thinking in terms of minimizing our risk of losing. See the three cases above. The only way I see us losing (barring some player I've written off being scum, to which I'll tip my cap and admit I've been beaten fairly) is if the scum are sandbagging an ability that can change the course of tomorrow. I don't see DJ holding that ability, but I think you do, and that risk worries me more than his double vote.
Again, I see DJ as second most likely to be scum. The adjective had nothing to do with that argument, and everything to do with you.
What's your point?
I don't trust him much - more than you and DJ, but not enough to take his results and subsequent push on face value. Now, can you tell me why you're so ready to jump to his aid?
Again, it doesn't, but I find you more suspicious and him less risky to keep alive.
6 alive means 4 to lynch, and there's no reason we'd not shoot DJ first if you flipped town. Only way he pulls this off then is if his scum-buddy has some ability that reduces lynch thresholds in addition to whatever he claimed, and they place all their votes/abilities before AI shoots DJ. Oh, and that the game doesn't proceed to Summer tomorrow.
Again, I think you're more dangerous since there's no telling what abilities you have (particularly ones that could be used before we shot you).
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
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Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I just scanned through my role PMs from other games I've been in, and I don't see the word 'team' used in a wincon in ANY of them, for either alignment.
--->DJ
Vote wessel
You're the closest to winning the black market pseudo Az points. So why didn't he fire it once he was caught, eh? Eh?
I think that speaks well of you and kpaca, and Brin to a degree. I'd forgotten to factor in WoD's NK when I first evaluated that, but I still think Void keeping it in his pants carries enough weight for y'all not to be ignored.
I'm sorry, the what now? Final 2 what, sir.
I've provided a damn good reason. But if you think I'm scum pulling a gambit, Xyre, you should factor in that if you don't hit mafia today, I've already won the game, right?
Anywho, see below. I still want DJC first.
The last person who said he was done responding to me was DRey.
Dude, I only had a pool of five to choose from. Even if I fired blind into that group I probably had a ten percent chance to stop the NK, possibly as high as twenty percent. But I didn't fire randomly, and I picked the right guy.
The Pool (aka folks who shipped IB to his reward yesterday): Xyre, Alpha, Brin, AE, DJC.
Can you explain the bold?
Why did you choose Vezok Night One? Why IB on Night Three?
You're complaining about fearmongering here, while painting me as a threat tomorrow. The season likely changes by then, and I'll lose my double vote. where's the threat I pose at that point?
I like the way you point out that my vote takes you to L-1. What does that have to do with Xyre's case on you? Nice misdirection there.
Your 'scumslip' is flat out wrong. I can't hammer this point home enough. I paraphrased the entire rest of my claim. Twice. Why would I copy that part over? I was the first person to point out an issue with claim phrasing in this game. Do you honestly think I would then turn around and make a rookie mistake like that?
--->DJ
Based on what I've just said and how close I am to a lynch myself, do you believe that I would make a mistake like that?
--->DJ
It's only scaremongering if my intentions are impure and my argument is unsound. Neither is true. Tell me why I'm wrong, rather than calling my argument names.
Don't equivocate. I clearly said some of those cases were far more likely than others.
See where I said "we shoot DJ first thing tomorrow"?
Oh, woe is me!
You could respond to my case from yesterday. You could argue against my probabilistic argument. You could do pretty much anything, but so far you've chosen to switch between sitting on your thumbs and holding an "I'm with scum" sign with an arrow pointed to DJ.
And it's interesting that you skipped over the first two paragraphs completely. Care to defend yourself there?
(sigh)
Because I think the entire "team" "slip" is WIFOM. There's no way to know what word he might come up with in a paraphrase; barring a more clear-cut case, I don't think it's evident enough. Besides, I'd much rather concentrate on the play itself, and yours is worse than his.
It's all nonsensical. I recognize he could be a scum double voter (and if he is, zindabad will get a larger earful), and am not confirming him on his ability. But I doubt he has any additional abilities, whereas I don't know that for you.
Hmm. Still seems too eager, but there's no way to make anything of it right now, so I'll set it aside.
As stated previously, the only way DJ's double vote matters is if the scum can somehow pull off a lynch before Alpha submits his daykill on DJ. That is essentially impossible.
Speaking as a guy who's written a setup or two, and who's seen the PMs in this game, such a role (combining a double vote and some other ability that might aid a double vote) is far more implausible than you just straight-up fabricating investigation results.
I want you lynched because I suspect you most. But I argue it is also the best play in this situation, because it reduces volatility the most. There is very little chance a team with DJ (and not you) could pull off the win tomorrow before we throw the spanner in their works. While the risk isn't likely much greater for you, it is still greater, and that worries me.
Thinking in terms of risk is not a fallacy. We win no matter what game state we reach so long as we don't fall below the fatal threshold; hence, it stands to reason that we can win so long as we set a course that will catch all the scum before they kill enough townies. Both your course and mine are likely to accomplish that, so then we must decide which course is less likely to fail if the scum have an ace hidden, which in turn requires us to consider what kind of aces they might have, and how threatening they are. If DJ is scum, I postulate the mafia are doomed no matter what, because his ability isn't useful for the reasons noted above.
But say we lynch DJ today, and he flips town. The most likely scum team is you and Pale, but we don't know if you two have abilities we don't know about that might flip the game around. (There are several that could work.) And those abilities would be far harder to stop, because if they're night abilities we can't preempt them, and if they're day abilities it becomes contingent upon beating Alpha to the thread - and I'd rather the game not boil down to a footrace.
So, what, the point of the ability in winter is just to move the clock?
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The lack of plausible scum buddies besides Wessel, combined with the fact that Wessel is the most likely scum buddy for all other possible suspects, is one more argument for Wessel first, I feel.
Final two people alive (what you'd need to get to to win as scum). Say the game gets down to you, me, AI, and, say, kpaca. I know who I'm going to suspect first, and it ain't kpaca.
It's very unlikely there are more than 2 scum alive. Odds are good we wake up tomorrow to four townies and two scum, which gives us a window for both a vig and a lynch, barring shenanigans.
You mean the RB thing? It's plausible, but as noted previously, I still think Wessel is the higher-value lynch. Plus saving DJ for tomorrow means we can shoot him and then lynch you were he to turn up town, which I expect would pretty much guarantee a scum hit.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
If you don't think I made the mistake out of sheer stupidity, that's fine.
But why, in that case, would I use a word like that if I was scum, knowing full well that people are watching claim wording so closely?
By the way...you keep saying WIFOM here; you do realize that goes both ways, right?
--->DJ
I'm subtle like that. You should be voting for DJC, btw. Dude has been hovering at L-1 with no hammer vote. Not a coincidence.
Think about the board state at the time. Kpaca had come forward with his investigation on Void. Brinatoo had come forward with his information and claim. Alpha had come forward with his claim. And the part I forgot to factor in when I initially went through this: A mafiate had died during the Night to a vig or SK (obviously we know now it was SK, but we don't know what Void or the scum team as whole's opinion was on that).
So, Void has every reason to believe he's going down to the Daykill. So why not end the Day and go to Night for value? Keep in mind Void had just replaced in and was forced to claim, so his role PM would be fresh in his mind for those two reasons (i.e. it is unlikely he simply didn't remember or realize he could use that ability).
The simplest reason is that the value equation doesn't look like it's going to work out in his team's favor. It was Spring. Moving the Clock forward 100 puts us back in Spring, yes? So that would give kpaca another investigation. Alpha would still have his Daykill in his pants. If we ended up waking up again in Spring, then Brin would have more information, too. I believe Void deliberately held on to his one-shot because going to Night was bad value in his estimation (possibly all of theirs depending on the communication rules).
I can tilt my head when I look at it and come up with that pointing to one of the two major players as his scum buddy, but I think the simpler explanation that there were simply too many targets to neutralize for it to be worth ending the Day is the correct one.
What led you to believe (if Vezok was scum) that the scum team would want to pull the gambit you described?
You thought you got a result on Alpha last Night, is that correct?
If IB had lived, what would your expected results have been? Like would you have gotten results for the immediate previous Night or all Nights your ability was "on the stack" so to speak.
What was your position on Iso's claim and the Clock movements back when he claimed, btw?
Apparently I've gotten much worse as scum if you think I'd let a Daykiller, a cop/tracker, and a veteran who doesn't trust me stroll into an Lylo scenario with me. Have some wine...but seriously, dude. I can be gutsy, but I'm not suicidal as scum unless I have to be.
If we have the room you believe we have, lynching Wessel first is a waste of time. You lynch me or DJC and force the scum team to choose between the Daykill tomorrow or kpaca's investigation results.
You keep assuming we have Alpha in the morning, btw. Why?
And odds are pretty good we wake up with 1 scum and five townies tomorrow if we lynch DJC. You're bending over backwards to try and justify not lynching the obvious choice whilst avoiding the most logical reason not to do so: That I'm pulling a gambit.
We're on a deadline. If you really don't trust me, go ahead and give me that once over. Otherwise vote for DJC. My vote's not moving.
Thank god mafia is a game of provable facts, then, or we'd be screwed.
I'm feeling sassy, be forewarned.
I've gone over this many times before. I made cases on both of you in the past, you two are the two highest remaining suspects on my list (after IB), etc. I'm not going to reiterate it, because I suspect I'm going to have to reiterate a lot of stuff in this post anyway - go find them yourself.
Didn't say the bolded.
I'll grant that they could shoot AI, though. I'm frankly a bit surprised they haven't already.
I'll go find the responses to follow them up, because I don't feel like they exist, but I could be wrong.
The bolded sentence is the only "slander" that has appeared in this discussion.
I did, and still am, but I'm also arguing that lynching you is the best play in general, because I believe that argument and believe using that argument to sway people is the right play as well.
It's WIFOM. I have no idea how his mental thesaurus works, and think there are plenty of pieces of evidence that are better for indicting him. I'm also concerned about your motives in pursuing him.
You misunderstand. I think he's scum. But scum or town, I doubt he has any ability on top of his double vote.
I didn't say it is. I'm saying there are fewer sleeves. Though I will admit if they do have an extra NK...
Hmm. Yeah, that's fair. The mafia have already shown themselves to make kills unpredictably, and sandbagging an extra kill and hitting AI would be a reasonable play.
**** it, everything on red. Unvote, Vote DJ Catchem
I'm coming for your head tomorrow, Wessel.
@ the claim: Okay, that makes more sense. Obviously doesn't confirm you, or confirm that you don't have more abilities, but that makes that possibility feel a bit less likely, since I wouldn't expect you to false claim a role with a functional defect and stand behind it.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Looking forward to discussion once this thing is done.
And Wessel...you were absolutely wrong about the 'scumslip'. So there.
--->DJ
"How could they say that? Humanity needed then!"
"They saw the world about them reduced to a circumference of bland light, pale grass, and the eternal Clock. All else was frozen in unending cessation, a blizzard that would neither end nor resume. All the Elementals had been created to protect lay outside the Clock grounds, imprisoned in nothingness, with seemingly no prospect of rebirth. They had failed in their mission, and as they were created to be single-minded in their purposes, they thought it better simply to pass into oblivion."
"...Perhaps it was."
"You were always too quick to give up, Dina."
"You were always too slow to realize you'd lost, Umry."
"Quiet, the pair of you. In spite of their despair, some still believed - perhaps naively - that if they destroyed the traitors and recaptured the Mother, they could imprison her in the Clock once more and set the world to right."
"'Recapture' her? Only Voes had that power. What a foolish hope."
"A foolish hope is better than none, my dear."
"...You, too, Sidi? A blinkered optimist?"
"If they failed in their mission, creation would surely be annihilated. Yes, perhaps the world would end even if they were successful, but it was a chance they had to take - and one they seized on eagerly, once an Elemental stepped forward and accused Kae Kae Zhun, the Regent of Seasons."
"What was his role?"
"He administered Spring and Autumn, resplendent in his robes of green and yellow, then later brown and bronze. During those two seasons, he was like Voes's deputy."
"A powerful Elemental, then."
"Aye, and one well known to all. He stepped forward and spread his arms, addressing the crowd. 'You all know me. Many times I have aided you in your problems, ensuring that we can all best serve the Father. These accusations are nothing but paranoia, and I forgive them.'"
"How did the others react?"
"They nodded, murmuring among themselves, and for a moment it looked as though Kae Kae Zhun might survive. Then, he saw the Reaper."
"The Reaper was there!?"
"Unknown to the rest, but yes, it was present. Resting one shadowy appendage on the side of the Aeon Clock, the wavering, incomprehensible form of the Reaper watched Kae Kae Zhun intently. He broke off mid-sentence, the words drying up on his tongue, as he caught sight of the Reaper. All eyes followed his, but the Reaper was visible only to the Regent of Seasons."
"What did it do?"
"It watched. After a long silence, one of the Elementals tentatively asked, 'Kae Kae Zhun, what do you see?' 'See? Nothing. Nothing. There's nothing there. Do you see anything? I didn't think so.' Another pregnant pause. Then, abruptly, the Reaper shook its head, turned its back on Kae Kae Zhun, and stalked away, fading into shadow. 'No! Master, why do you walk away?' he shrieked involuntarily, the words coming before he could stop them. 'Master...?' one of the onlookers asked accusingly. 'Stop! Come back! Master, why have you forsaken me?' Kae Kae Zhun entreated the dark being even with his last breath, as the others seized his arms and prepared to tear him apart."
"...So he was one of them."
"The struggle was truly coming to its end now. Unknown powers were taking a hand, and the Elementals were left without clear direction. Another traitor was dead, yes, but Kae Kae Zhun bequeathed them questions, not answers. Who was his 'Master'? What was its purpose? Was there any point to all of this? Where was Voes? Those questions followed them into the night...."
DJ Catchem has been lynched. He was Kae Kae Zhun, Regent of Seasons, Elemental of the Solstice.
It is now Night 5. The deadline for night actions is set for Monday, May 21st, at 11:00am EST. If you send in night actions earlier, night can end sooner.
***
The same clarification that I gave regarding iLord's role title applies to DJC as well, except in reverse.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
"Who was it?"
"This time, it was Lheraz Bex, a much-maligned Elemental, infamous for his scheming. Known as the Watery Manipulator, he constantly plotted to expand his powers. Many of the Elementals had long suspected him as being part of the conspiracy, but there was no sign of any treachery, and they were forced to conclude that his ambition had not propelled him into Yblisa's arms; he was innocent."
"And still no sign of Voes."
"He wasn't coming. He never cared."
"Indeed, it was not the Father who appeared to witness the new dawn...but his sister."
"Yblisa was back!?"
"As the Elementals gathered in silent contemplation over Lheraz Bex's body, they heard the monstrous, flat, ineffable laughter of their Mother from behind them. Spinning to confront her, they saw only a shadowy image of her, tall and intimidating. 'Surprised to see me?' she mocked, curvaceous lips drawn back in a gruesome, sharp smile. 'You thought to destroy me? Not even he could do that. You have succeeded in banishing me beyond the Clock grounds, for a time. Now I walk the still world outside your sanctum, glorying in its silence.'"
"How could she survive out there?"
"Yblisa existed before Time itself, as you remember. 'You'll stay out there forever!' blustered one of the Elementals. The boast fell flat. Yblisa's smile widened. 'I think not, my wayward child. You remain locked in there, inside the Clock bubble - like a prison. How do you like being imprisoned, you traitorous scum? I have rather had my fill of it. Soon enough, the Clock will fail, I shall return, and consign this entire world to oblivion! So by all means, continue to play out your farce, you condemned fools. Whether you choose wrong or right, it makes no difference: all will end."
"She was bluffing."
"How were they to know?"
"So what did they do?"
"All that they could do - choose another one of their number for sacrifice, hoping that the Mother's words were nothing but lies. There they struggled, under Yblisa's baleful eyes, wondering if it had all been for nothing...."
Archmage Eternal, Lheraz Bex, the Watery Manipulator, Elemental of Tides, has been killed.
It is now Day 6. With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch. The deadline is set for Thursday, May 31st, at 4:00pm EST.
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 22 places and now stands at 25. It is now SUMMER.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Waiting to hear from Kpain.
Wessel, you didn't claim your numbers on your ability. Please do so.
* Pale Mage pours coffee.
* Pale Mage wonders if we're on the brink of finishing this thing.
Lol. That would be interesting. I actually thought of that idea for a game yesterday, "npc" to vote for with riddles.
/agree
I'm thinking one scum left. Otherwise a 3 to 1 ratio to start out seems pushing it.
Town:
Me
Alpha (investigation)
PM (actions yesterday caught a scum)
kpaca (behavior day 1 with day 2 investigation to scum strongly hints at town)
Left:
Wessel
Xyre
Things to do:
Have Alpha shoot either Wessel or Xyre, then lynch the other, gg?
Likely. But rather than just start stacking bodies like cordwood, let's gather up the data and make sure we're not missing anything.
In addition, I'm sure Xyre would like to make good on his promise from Yesterday.
I agree we're probably down to just one mafia. Pretty sure Zindabad told us as much in the lynch scene Yesterday. Good chance it's Wessel, but not a slam dunk.
I doubt my vote on Yblisa will amount to anything...but if Zindy's going to throw down flavor I don't mind following it to a dead end if it isn't going to take more than a votecount. The Yblisa thing is probably just built into his story arc.
That's crazy talk.
Thankee.
Vote Wessel
Between behavior and results, everyone else is essentially confirmed. So I say we have AI shoot him and pop the Champagne. If he flips town, I consent to being lynched, because I'm very confident that will not happen, and even if it does there's really no way the mafia can win tomorrow barring some strange hidden ability.
Let's end this.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I don't think we'll still be here. Why me if we are still here, though? Also, I'd like to know the numbers on you're Spring ability, as well as if you can explain why AE's ability failed on you Night One (a simple "yes" or "no" works for me on that one).
Actually, I can wait on that second thing for if we're still here. It's probably something to do with Wessel in the first place.
See, that would only work out for you if the scum pull a gambit involving a lie that ties himself to another scum. It's a fairly specific set of circumstances. A more natural thought process for a townie would be "at least I can confirm or refute claimed targets later in the game". In other words, something more general than what you claim to have been trying.
Maybe. Or you surmised no one targeted him since you had a better view of the board than you should have had.
Then this conveniently would do more to confirm that you could target people with something non-lethal more than anything else.
But you had strong reason to believe the Clock could make it all the way 'round at least one time, and possibly more, right? I see that you mentioned we probably didn't have a reset in the game (post 915, I think), but that was as far as your thinking took you, apparently.
Wait, what? Why bring an NK thought process into this? But since you did...why would that have made Iso too big a target for the NK?
WoD was Yblisa. I'm just wondering if Zindabad is pulling something fun and weird given that this is a Specialty and the Daybreak flavor scene. It costs us like nothing to explore it, so I am.
'Cause I don't think for a second AE wouldn't target Kpaca again last Night without a restraining order. He'd pretty much made it his mission in life to only pursue kpaca. He invested heavily; he would have seen it through.
I think you're lying.
Xyre and Alpha are both wholly confirmed at this point (or as best they can be without actually reading their respective role PMs). Neither makes sense as scum short of "more than one scum left" (very unlikely) or "Godfather" (possible, but not very likely). Well, I guess something really screwy could be up with kpaca's investigation ability, but if the only clue we've got to that is Brin's claim that his results are guaranteed sane, that would be fairly bastardly of Zindabad. But that's only a concern if Xyre is actually the last scum, anyway, and behaviorally that isn't likely in the first place.
If you're town, Brin or kpaca is my pool. Pretty sure we can get through that if need be.
Here's 915. Actually, you took a stab at prediction the Clock movements, so that point is retracted, Wessel.
It doesn't seem likely that he would do/say the things of day 5. If we head into day 7 with (I'm guessing 3 by tomorrow with shot lynch and nk) a scum still among us, and I'm still alive, then yes I will start to rethink it as a gambit.
I also hope that AE flipping town lends more credence to my alignment.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
My condolences. Very sorry to hear this, Brin.
Because I have a hard time reading Xyre, but I feel pretty confidant in my read on you. Xyre's alignment checking out affirms this belief in me.
I just have you over Brinatoo tbh. It's obviously not AI. I mean, even if AI is scum, he's won.
My Spring ability +5,+6,+7 I'm pretty sure. I can't completely remember tbh. I'll go check if you want a definite answer.
I have no idea why abilities failed on me.
I'm not certain what the effect of the NK is on the Clock yet. Might have an answer soon.
I need to look back over your initial comment. I may have misinterpreted what you said.
Your claim did not make any distinction between successful and unsuccessful "targeting". On top of which, what would unsuccessful targeting be, anyway?
You'd have me believe that the way your results is given to you has changed, and doesn't match your claim.
This smells more like you created results to hedge your bets.
He can be a bastard mod to a degree. I just think that's too bastardly.
Yeah, I need a definite answer.
Plural?
Wessel (1) - Xyre
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
(The deadline is set for next Thursday, the 31st, at 4:00 pm EST.)
None of my games involve NPCs.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
No?
It was 5,6,7.
Singular? Are you trying to make a semantical point or something? I don't know how any abilities stopped from reaching me, or even if any abilities were actually used on me. As such, abilities.
What was your realization based on? Was post 127 your only reason for having him as town?
This kinda feels like a way for you to cover your bases on DJC before his likely lynch that day. You cast doubt but don't commit to him being scum; you do the opposite, actually.
If PM is running a gambit, this would be the conversation following the decision made out of thread. I keep reading it over to try to figure out if this is fake animosity or not.
Why target kpaca? What was your thought process?
There goes Xyre off the list.
DRey asked for a temporary stay of execution as well...
Did you want to be investigated?
I am truly sorry for your loss.
The flip doesn't really help that much, as you could be falseclaiming your ability entirely and relying on your knowledge of alignments for results.
What helps is you not using AE as easy fodder.
I think both roles can exist quite peacefully in the same game. What I find curious is that you are bringing up the possibility of tainted results over faked ability. Speaks to inside knowledge rather than genuine suspicion of them lying.
You'd be my favorite to daykill if I had to shoot immediately.
Night Four (Winter)
The Clock moved 24 places.
Me - 7 pts.
AE - 9 pts.
Wessel - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 points. For some unknown reason, we're one point short.
Night Five (Spring)
The Clock moved 22 places.
AE (assumed) - 9 pts
Wessel - 7 pts.
kpaca - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over.
Please correct me if my math is wrong or if I've forgotten something.
I've only done the math on the past two Nights, so there may yet be a pattern that reveals itself that may suggest a reason for the discrepencies. Personally, I wonder if it has to do with either successful/unsuccessful kills or something, or perhaps is connected with the mystery of AE's failed attempt on kpaca Night One.
The more important thing that the totals suggest to me is that Wessel was indeed doing something that moved the Clock. I have confirmation from on high that if I 'block somebody who tried to take an action, the ability would still affect the Clock. So, unless Zindabad allows his mafiates to prosecute a kill and use an ability in the same Night without Motivation, than Wessel shouldn't be our primary suspect today.
I haven't gone back yet to look at Zindabad's other games to see if there is a clue there regarding the NK + ability possibility. Feel free to do that yourselves rather than wait on me. Or wait on me. Whichever.
I will say that the wording of Artifice's ability makes me think it is unlikely. Not impossible, though.
To be clear: Wessel isn't in my townie pile. Behaviorally, he's my favorite to walk the plank. However, given the data I think Brinatoo might be the better DK nominee.
I can flesh this stuff out later if any of it is confusing, but I'm running out of time:
Looked over Xyre and Wessel over Night. Found some good things about Xyre, some questionable things about Wessel.
Xyre, Alpha, and kpaca are in the green pile. Frankly, if kpaca has been pulling a gambit this entire game (and I only have a couple of minor points that even make me consider the possiblity) he can have the win as far as I'm concerned. He's earned it.
Brinatoo has been a non-entity for most of this game. A lot of what I like about him is that he feels like he posts from a place of innocence a lot of the time. However, I recognize this is a fairly big blind spot for me. Under pressure he's been pretty bad, resorting to quoting the dictionary and such. I suggest all of you read Brinatoo independently.
Or Alpha could just shoot him. I'm good with that, too. It's Wessel or Brin at this point, and the Clock suggests Brin.
(4, 5, 9).
The Clock moved 24 places.
Me - 7 pts.
AE - 4 pts. (redirect to himself)
Wessel - 7 pts.
...for a total of 18 points. For some unknown reason, we're six points short.
That is, unless the NK is worth six points!
Night Five (Spring)
The Clock moved 22 places.
AE (assumed) - 9 pts (rolecop)
Wessel - 7 pts.
kpaca - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over. Unless we assume Wessel used the NK and not his claimed 7 pt ability, in which case we are right on the money.
Alpha - Please shoot Wessel so we can all go home.
What if something else is going on though?
It does because my original math had AE's ability wrong. His purple for the "target me" ability was only 4. That leaves us 6 points shy. I know that if I RB something it still affects the Clock. Theory: The blocked NK was worth 6 pts.
Now, look at the math for last Night. We're one point over. Assume Wessel is lying about using his Watcher ability (7 pts), and replace it with an NK (6 pts). The math adds up.
Wessel is scum. Clock and behavior agree.
Such as?