I don't understand how people who are voting me for my "tone" and Qft when what they are talking about wasn't sarcasm and I was clear about that.
I also don't understand the people who are voting me for "being scummy" then yelling about how we can't scum hunt.
I also don't understand why PB thinks that me not claiming(and implied by Artiface101{People who aren't going with the plan because it's THE PLAN are scum.}) because no one has shown a way to break the game I'm scummy.
I don't see the point in my claiming when it will only hurt the town.
I don't understand WG pushing SO HARD for a massclaim when he has no idea how or if the game is breakable.
He wants us to kill our cow for meat we may not even need.
(Trading Benifits for something we may not even need later.)
everyone has claimed but you so what is your issue exactly with claiming?
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Pinky, if we focus shots on Artifice and Tor, they will be dead in all worlds BUT the ones where they are alpha's in, thus they are ensured to be the only alpha candidates day 2. Unless I am missing something.
Pinky, if we focus shots on Artifice and Tor, they will be dead in all worlds BUT the ones where they are alpha's in, thus they are ensured to be the only alpha candidates day 2. Unless I am missing something.
Argh. Art OR Tor, dude. Shooting both takes two nights.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
She seems pretty confident that 25% or more = possible scum. It almost reeks of inside info.
It is inside info, namely math. Based on the rough estimate we were provided for how many starting worlds existed, 25% would be two standard deviations from the scum average AKA notably high.
-However, if someone actually started with a beta of 0% (I forget who claimed this) that would mean one of three things:
1) atlseal handpicked which worlds to include, which could make some things difficult (but I believe he's at least strongly hinted that this isn't true)
2) the 0% beta player had something so statistically unlikely happen that they should be playing the lottery rather than mafia (but this is, as stated, so very, very unlikely)
3) there were significantly fewer starting worlds than we were lead to believe (and though I'm still working the math backwards on this idea, I believe it could be as few as 170 while more than 1700 becomes statistically unreasonable)
4) that player is lying
EBWODP: Also, not so much that, as much as a really high scum score herself. Could be Alpha or beta, but basically she is looking for her partner and trying to send signals.
The only reliable way to find a scum buddy is to shoot them and have them not die. (And if I was looking for potential scum buddies, my first piece of advice to them absolutely would not be "Hey buddy, act like scum."
I understand the concept of the game (have studied quantum mechanics), but as for how to abuse percentages, still struggling...
Luckily, I've studied both. Statistically, the best thing we can do is lynch someone with a low cop score, which should also be someone with a guilty investigation. I'd prefer not CF. as he seems to have a solid grasp of what's going on. -I think arcadic was the other?
-Anyway, this does two things: it minimizes the risk of mislynching a cop, but also, even if they do flip cop, we have caught scum for day 2.
At night, shooting in a chain is still our best bet for accurately guessing everyone's alpha% (and while there are other factors that can affect the change in death%, they should overall cancel out, or at the very least balance enough to make the effects minimal). -Pairing to eliminate scum pairs is also a good idea, but the odd number tonight hurts that plan.
As for investigations, everyone with a high cop% (about 12+) should target people who are 0% dead. People with a low cop% (4 and under) should target the highest dead player who they haven't copped yet (seppel or art). And those in the middle (5-11) should target those of us who are moderately dead (at 6%). This should maximize the odds of both collapsing someone into a cop AND that player getting a guilty result. -At least it should, I'll need to check something first.
@Mod: What would happen if a paradox is created during the night?
Depending on how he's doing things, that shouldn't be possible.
@MOD: Let's say there are three game states still possible:
1: A cop, B town, C mafia, D town
2: A cop, B mafia, C town, D town
3: A cop, B dead town, C mafia, D town
If A investigates D, the result is 100% town. If A investigates C, the result is 67% scum or 33% town. But if A investigates B is the result 50% town/50% scum OR 67% town/33% scum? -Basically, can a cop get results on the dead?
Pinky, if we focus shots on Artifice and Tor, they will be dead in all worlds BUT the ones where they are alpha's in, thus they are ensured to be the only alpha candidates day 2. Unless I am missing something.
That depends on if we can lynch dead players. Since the worlds where they are town would still exist, they would just be dead in them.
@Mod: Same 3 scenarios as before, but this time if B is lynched, does B flip 50%town/50%scum, or 67%town/33% scum?
Sorry for the triple post, but I forgot the important part of that first post:
If someone actually is 0% beta, it becomes very possible for someone else to have a combined scum% of 40 or more. Meaning behavior analysis is completely on the table. -And I'd like everyone who hasn't to claim both starting and current scum% now.
Hey guys posting from my phone so too hard to quote stuff, but those of you who think we can force alpha from our night kills are missing the same thing I did when I thought I broke the game.
If we've all NKed Art (eg) so the only worlds he's alive in he's alpha, it doesn't mean the only worlds that exist have him as alpha. He's still town in a bunch of worlds, just dead town. That part of his waveform still exists, so we can lynch him tomorrow and just have lynched a corpse.
KCC - incredibly impressed at the numbers! Would be interested to see how you've deemed 1700 worlds unlikely (stat analysis is the weak point in my maths), not that it's entirely relevant, seeing as you are confident enough to trust.
As for you saying the only way to find scum buddy is shoot them and have them not die - this would imply they were your beta in every world you were alpha, but seeing as you'd targeted them it would collapse all those worlds, so you'd then be 0% alpha.
I think the shooting in chain to identify alpha % needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If we're looking at ~200 worlds, it's possible someone will do lots of damage because they targeted somebody who isn't their beta in many worlds, as opposed to having huge alpha.
However, we can cross that bridge when we come to it I suppose, as it's all we've got so far!
Pinky, if we focus shots on Artifice and Tor, they will be dead in all worlds BUT the ones where they are alpha's in, thus they are ensured to be the only alpha candidates day 2. Unless I am missing something.
If.
You.
Focus.
Shots.
We.
Will.
Be. Dead.
(We will reach 100%, duh.)
In which case we can't be Alpha OR Beta because we will be KILLED by scum and therefore auto Town.
Sorry for the triple post, but I forgot the important part of that first post:
If someone actually is 0% beta, it becomes very possible for someone else to have a combined scum% of 40 or more. Meaning behavior analysis is completely on the table. -And I'd like everyone who hasn't to claim both starting and current scum% now.
If.
You.
Focus.
Shots.
We.
Will.
Be. Dead.
(We will reach 100%, duh.)
In which case we can't be Alpha OR Beta because we will be KILLED by scum and therefore auto Town.
Art, you won't be 100% dead, because nobody has shot you in the worlds in which you're alpha. Dead percentage = number of worlds you're dead in/total number of worlds. While you're still alpha somewhere, your dead percentage can't reach 100% through NKs.
Given that this has already been explained a few times, probably best not to be saying things like 'duh' that just come across as rude.
Starting Alpha/Beta: 8, 10
Current Alpha/Beta: 6, 14
OK, so going by this scenario, if Art and tor both live into day 2 under Chicken's plan, town is in the position of playing kingmaker and choosing which we want to win and which we want to lose, Again, as the only worlds they can still be alive in is a world where they are alpha. That raises the moral dilemma of "Do we want to go there to ensure we have alpha nailed D2?" Personally, I am all for it in this case.
FOR EVERYONE: Do you want to go with chickenfish's plan of aiming our remaining shots at Artifice/Tor in order to ensure an alpha Lynch D2? Please Answer in your next post.
Art, you won't be 100% dead, because nobody has shot you in the worlds in which you're alpha. Dead percentage = number of worlds you're dead in/total number of worlds. While you're still alpha somewhere, your dead percentage can't reach 100% through NKs.
Given that this has already been explained a few times, probably best not to be saying things like 'duh' that just come across as rude.
Starting Alpha/Beta: 8, 10
Current Alpha/Beta: 6, 14
I know, right? My beta went up because nobody shot me. However, I'm actually below average on the alpha. That's why I proposed people NKing me so I could lose my beta and get my cop % up, but it makes more sense for us to 'finish off' Art and tordeck so we can have 2 people at almost 0% beta.
Hey guys posting from my phone so too hard to quote stuff, but those of you who think we can force alpha from our night kills are missing the same thing I did when I thought I broke the game.
If we've all NKed Art (eg) so the only worlds he's alive in he's alpha, it doesn't mean the only worlds that exist have him as alpha. He's still town in a bunch of worlds, just dead town. That part of his waveform still exists, so we can lynch him tomorrow and just have lynched a corpse.
KCC - incredibly impressed at the numbers! Would be interested to see how you've deemed 1700 worlds unlikely (stat analysis is the weak point in my maths), not that it's entirely relevant, seeing as you are confident enough to trust.
As for you saying the only way to find scum buddy is shoot them and have them not die - this would imply they were your beta in every world you were alpha, but seeing as you'd targeted them it would collapse all those worlds, so you'd then be 0% alpha.
I think the shooting in chain to identify alpha % needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If we're looking at ~200 worlds, it's possible someone will do lots of damage because they targeted somebody who isn't their beta in many worlds, as opposed to having huge alpha.
However, we can cross that bridge when we come to it I suppose, as it's all we've got so far!
THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER AND OVER AGAIN!!!
In other words all this does is kill a town player if we take out the possibility that Art or Seppel is Alpha or Beta.
I started with 8 (alpha)/8(beta)
I now have 6 (alpha)/9(beta)
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3rd party (0) 0/0
But them being alpha IS a possibility, so we're not killing them in terms of cutting off their actions/participation in the game.
Chances of any player being alpha is 1 out of 12.
Each lynch gives info. I ask again because I have yet to receive a good answer.
What is the problem with each person shooting at each other?
Beside the uneven number?
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Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
everyone has claimed but you so what is your issue exactly with claiming?
Again.
If everyone jumped of a bridge why should that pressure me into doing it too?
Empty promises are not a reason to Mass-Claim. Wheat Grinder pushing for a mass claim but not knowing how or if the game is breakable is a great reason not to claim.
The fact that You and Artiface want to lynch anybody who doesn't go along with the mass claim is digusting.
Because everybody else is doing it should never be a reason to do something.
I refuse to claim and I want responses to the votes I called out on myself.
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Why Ban Affinity? Who doesn't like vomiting their hand into Play Turn 2?
Chances of any player being alpha is 1 out of 12.
Each lynch gives info. I ask again because I have yet to receive a good answer.
What is the problem with each person shooting at each other?
Beside the uneven number?
There's nothing wrong with it, but why is it preferable to all shooting Art/tor? We get pretty much exactly the same info
@MOD: Let's say there are three game states still possible:
1: A cop, B town, C mafia, D town
2: A cop, B mafia, C town, D town
3: A cop, B dead town, C mafia, D town
If A investigates D, the result is 100% town. If A investigates C, the result is 67% scum or 33% town. But if A investigates B is the result 50% town/50% scum OR 67% town/33% scum? -Basically, can a cop get results on the dead?
67% town, 33% mafia. Yes, a cop can get results from a dead body.
If everyone jumped of a bridge why should that pressure me into doing it too?
Empty promises are not a reason to Mass-Claim. Wheat Grinder pushing for a mass claim but not knowing how or if the game is breakable is a great reason not to claim.
The fact that You and Artiface want to lynch anybody who doesn't go along with the mass claim is digusting.
Because everybody else is doing it should never be a reason to do something.
I refuse to claim and I want responses to the votes I called out on myself.
Again why? You still have not explain why you have an issue with claiming.
Well, most of my work just went out the window. -I'm pretty sure there is no way to break this game now. The best we can do is try to heavily tilt the percentages. I'll see if I can work out a way to do that.
Knowing everyone's scum stats is still important though.
@Zombie: I know you enjoy being unhelpful, but would you mind confirming if I've correctly figured out this little bit: You NKed arcadic and currently are between 5-7% Alpha Mafia.
If the above isn't true, that's very important to know because it means someone is lying, which means someone has reasons to lie, meaning we can actually play some mafia today. -However, if it is true, that's also important to know, because it means I have a pretty good idea about who we should be lynching today.
If everyone jumped of a bridge why should that pressure me into doing it too?
Empty promises are not a reason to Mass-Claim. Wheat Grinder pushing for a mass claim but not knowing how or if the game is breakable is a great reason not to claim.
The fact that You and Artiface want to lynch anybody who doesn't go along with the mass claim is digusting.
Because everybody else is doing it should never be a reason to do something.
I refuse to claim and I want responses to the votes I called out on myself.
Vote Zombie Zach The game doesn't seem breakable by mass claim, but your stance on it is solely a firm NO, for reasons i cannot understand. You don't know if your the cop or scum or town, why wouldn't you want to better know your probability of being them? You haven't claimed your actions, the 1 thing that actually matters as far as anaylisis goes. We need to know whom you copped and whom you killed last night to know who you are.
I'm just as much against day 1 mass claims as the next, but this isn't a mass claim, its playing the game. Your refusal to do so makes the game harder to win.
I was 12% alpha 0% beta
I am now 9% alpha and still 0% beta.
Vote Zombie Zach The game doesn't seem breakable by mass claim, but your stance on it is solely a firm NO, for reasons i cannot understand. You don't know if your the cop or scum or town, why wouldn't you want to better know your probability of being them? You haven't claimed your actions, the 1 thing that actually matters as far as anaylisis goes. We need to know whom you copped and whom you killed last night to know who you are.
I'm just as much against day 1 mass claims as the next, but this isn't a mass claim, its playing the game. Your refusal to do so makes the game harder to win.
I was 12% alpha 0% beta
I am now 9% alpha and still 0% beta.
I think this gives even higher priority to finding the alpha scum.
@Mod: What happens if Night 1, for example, I declare tordeck as my Nightkill choice (given that he is Seppel's role, and that was my target Night 0)? Is it nothing, as I suspect?
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@Mod: What happens if Night 1, for example, I declare tordeck as my Nightkill choice (given that he is Seppel's role, and that was my target Night 0)? Is it nothing, as I suspect?
Players will not be allowed to target a player with a kill when they have already targeted that player for a kill on a previous night. Mafia cannot kill the same player twice.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
Players will not be allowed to target a player with a kill when they have already targeted that player for a kill on a previous night. Mafia cannot kill the same player twice.
Ah, and I likely missed that in the rules somewhere. My bad, and sorry. That makes even more sense then my theory.
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Problem being, the longer he lives and is uncoorperative, the more misinformation the game is going to be fed.
True.
This is not normal mafia. Zombie is either thinking of this as normal mafia or is concerned about his numbers meaning anything.
This game is about analysis and trying to figure the odds and probabilities of who is scum.
One person that does not want to give information takes away from this game and it's purpose.
@KCC: Who do you find to be a better lynch and why?
@Void:
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mafia win/lose record
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Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
I've been following the game since the start (had a lot of interest, but was in 3 games already). I don't know if LN has posted this stats yet or not, if not I will provide them in my next post.
------------------
On with the game:
"Zombie Zach" is obviously the primary concern at the moment. I don't understand either why he is out right refusing to claim at the moment. It's not like we confirm town or scum at this point and the numbers will change regardless of what happens in during Night 1.
@KCC: Who do you find to be a better lynch and why?
CF has a high scum%, a guilty investigation, and likely a low cop%. Only issue there is CF seems valuable to keep around otherwise.
Arc also has a guilty investigation and is likely lying about the 0% beta.
And now that all the numbers are in, at least one player who NKed seppel and at least one who NKed Art are lying about their scum%. If Zombie claims his investigation, I think I can figure out who.
This 'should' have been a lynch because I missed Audinho's vote in 155, but seeing as how nobody corrected the votecount before now and I didn't catch it, I will allow the day continue due to Tanarin's unvote. The corrected votecount is below:
CF has a high scum%, a guilty investigation, and likely a low cop%. Only issue there is CF seems valuable to keep around otherwise.
Arc also has a guilty investigation and is likely lying about the 0% beta.
And now that all the numbers are in, at least one player who NKed seppel and at least one who NKed Art are lying about their scum%. If Zombie claims his investigation, I think I can figure out who.
I would agree with this thought process but CF is someone I am not ready to lynch based on numbers yet. He is more helpful to the thought process of this game for me.
Arcadic fits the guilty and shot on Art category. I would consider this possiblity higher then CF but not higher then Zombie who has not provided anything for this game and is focusing on something that is not scummy for this type of game.
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Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
This 'should' have been a lynch because I missed Audinho's vote in 155, but seeing as how nobody corrected the votecount before now and I didn't catch it, I will allow the day continue due to Tanarin's unvote. The corrected votecount is below:
everyone has claimed but you so what is your issue exactly with claiming?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
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Argh. Art OR Tor, dude. Shooting both takes two nights.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
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So we have a shot at behavioral analysis.
It is inside info, namely math. Based on the rough estimate we were provided for how many starting worlds existed, 25% would be two standard deviations from the scum average AKA notably high.
-However, if someone actually started with a beta of 0% (I forget who claimed this) that would mean one of three things:
1) atlseal handpicked which worlds to include, which could make some things difficult (but I believe he's at least strongly hinted that this isn't true)
2) the 0% beta player had something so statistically unlikely happen that they should be playing the lottery rather than mafia (but this is, as stated, so very, very unlikely)
3) there were significantly fewer starting worlds than we were lead to believe (and though I'm still working the math backwards on this idea, I believe it could be as few as 170 while more than 1700 becomes statistically unreasonable)
4) that player is lying
The only reliable way to find a scum buddy is to shoot them and have them not die. (And if I was looking for potential scum buddies, my first piece of advice to them absolutely would not be "Hey buddy, act like scum."
Luckily, I've studied both. Statistically, the best thing we can do is lynch someone with a low cop score, which should also be someone with a guilty investigation. I'd prefer not CF. as he seems to have a solid grasp of what's going on. -I think arcadic was the other?
-Anyway, this does two things: it minimizes the risk of mislynching a cop, but also, even if they do flip cop, we have caught scum for day 2.
At night, shooting in a chain is still our best bet for accurately guessing everyone's alpha% (and while there are other factors that can affect the change in death%, they should overall cancel out, or at the very least balance enough to make the effects minimal). -Pairing to eliminate scum pairs is also a good idea, but the odd number tonight hurts that plan.
As for investigations, everyone with a high cop% (about 12+) should target people who are 0% dead. People with a low cop% (4 and under) should target the highest dead player who they haven't copped yet (seppel or art). And those in the middle (5-11) should target those of us who are moderately dead (at 6%). This should maximize the odds of both collapsing someone into a cop AND that player getting a guilty result. -At least it should, I'll need to check something first.
Depending on how he's doing things, that shouldn't be possible.
@MOD: Let's say there are three game states still possible:
1: A cop, B town, C mafia, D town
2: A cop, B mafia, C town, D town
3: A cop, B dead town, C mafia, D town
If A investigates D, the result is 100% town. If A investigates C, the result is 67% scum or 33% town. But if A investigates B is the result 50% town/50% scum OR 67% town/33% scum? -Basically, can a cop get results on the dead?
That depends on if we can lynch dead players. Since the worlds where they are town would still exist, they would just be dead in them.
@Mod: Same 3 scenarios as before, but this time if B is lynched, does B flip 50%town/50%scum, or 67%town/33% scum?
If someone actually is 0% beta, it becomes very possible for someone else to have a combined scum% of 40 or more. Meaning behavior analysis is completely on the table. -And I'd like everyone who hasn't to claim both starting and current scum% now.
Started: 4 alpha, 4 beta. Now I'm 6 alpha, 3 beta.
If we've all NKed Art (eg) so the only worlds he's alive in he's alpha, it doesn't mean the only worlds that exist have him as alpha. He's still town in a bunch of worlds, just dead town. That part of his waveform still exists, so we can lynch him tomorrow and just have lynched a corpse.
KCC - incredibly impressed at the numbers! Would be interested to see how you've deemed 1700 worlds unlikely (stat analysis is the weak point in my maths), not that it's entirely relevant, seeing as you are confident enough to trust.
As for you saying the only way to find scum buddy is shoot them and have them not die - this would imply they were your beta in every world you were alpha, but seeing as you'd targeted them it would collapse all those worlds, so you'd then be 0% alpha.
I think the shooting in chain to identify alpha % needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If we're looking at ~200 worlds, it's possible someone will do lots of damage because they targeted somebody who isn't their beta in many worlds, as opposed to having huge alpha.
However, we can cross that bridge when we come to it I suppose, as it's all we've got so far!
You.
Focus.
Shots.
We.
Will.
Be.
Dead.
(We will reach 100%, duh.)
In which case we can't be Alpha OR Beta because we will be KILLED by scum and therefore auto Town.
About the bolded, exactly. And I, as a player attempting to win as Town, want to lynch those that don't.
Alpha 10, Beta 10, now 9 and 3, respectively.
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Given that this has already been explained a few times, probably best not to be saying things like 'duh' that just come across as rude.
Starting Alpha/Beta: 8, 10
Current Alpha/Beta: 6, 14
Starting Alpha/beta: 6/10
Current Alpha/beta: 6/15
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I'm down for just about any plan.
Those are some high scum numbers there.
Unsure how nearly full-killing tordeck and Artifice ensures alpha scum lynch day 2. Willing to go with it if clarified.
Numbers are varying too much from what appears to be the same actions. Need to investigate.
THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER AND OVER AGAIN!!!
In other words all this does is kill a town player if we take out the possibility that Art or Seppel is Alpha or Beta.
I started with 8 (alpha)/8(beta)
I now have 6 (alpha)/9(beta)
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Chances of any player being alpha is 1 out of 12.
Each lynch gives info. I ask again because I have yet to receive a good answer.
What is the problem with each person shooting at each other?
Beside the uneven number?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Again.
If everyone jumped of a bridge why should that pressure me into doing it too?
Empty promises are not a reason to Mass-Claim. Wheat Grinder pushing for a mass claim but not knowing how or if the game is breakable is a great reason not to claim.
The fact that You and Artiface want to lynch anybody who doesn't go along with the mass claim is digusting.
Because everybody else is doing it should never be a reason to do something.
I refuse to claim and I want responses to the votes I called out on myself.
Arcadic will be prodded after this post.
67% town, 33% mafia. Yes, a cop can get results from a dead body.
67% town, 33% scum.
Zombie Zach (3): Tanarin, Chickenfish, Wheat_Grinder
Tanarin (2): KittyCupCake, NeedMoreAssumptions
Wheat_Grinder (1): tordeck
NeedMoreAssumptions (1): Zombie Zach
No Lynch (1): Artifice 101
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
In addition, I am currently seeking a replacement for Luck Norris. When more information is available, it will be posted.
Again why? You still have not explain why you have an issue with claiming.
How do we get the same info shooting ARt/Tor?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Knowing everyone's scum stats is still important though.
If the above isn't true, that's very important to know because it means someone is lying, which means someone has reasons to lie, meaning we can actually play some mafia today. -However, if it is true, that's also important to know, because it means I have a pretty good idea about who we should be lynching today.
Vote Zombie Zach The game doesn't seem breakable by mass claim, but your stance on it is solely a firm NO, for reasons i cannot understand. You don't know if your the cop or scum or town, why wouldn't you want to better know your probability of being them? You haven't claimed your actions, the 1 thing that actually matters as far as anaylisis goes. We need to know whom you copped and whom you killed last night to know who you are.
I'm just as much against day 1 mass claims as the next, but this isn't a mass claim, its playing the game. Your refusal to do so makes the game harder to win.
I was 12% alpha 0% beta
I am now 9% alpha and still 0% beta.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
Okay, I think I've got this too.
@Zombie: Again, please confirm this: you Copped NMA and got a Town result?
I think this gives even higher priority to finding the alpha scum.
Step 2, work out what happens tomorrow.
@Mod: What happens if Night 1, for example, I declare tordeck as my Nightkill choice (given that he is Seppel's role, and that was my target Night 0)? Is it nothing, as I suspect?
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
Players will not be allowed to target a player with a kill when they have already targeted that player for a kill on a previous night. Mafia cannot kill the same player twice.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
-Plus, we don't even need to force him to claim; once Aud and LN claim their scum% I'll be able to work ZZ's out within an acceptable margin of error.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Problem being, the longer he lives and is uncoorperative, the more misinformation the game is going to be fed.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
True.
This is not normal mafia. Zombie is either thinking of this as normal mafia or is concerned about his numbers meaning anything.
This game is about analysis and trying to figure the odds and probabilities of who is scum.
One person that does not want to give information takes away from this game and it's purpose.
@KCC: Who do you find to be a better lynch and why?
@Void:
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
/barn.
While I'd rather not lynch Zach, unfortunately we have to in order for everyone to be working together on the same plane.
Hey Void!
@PB:
I've been following the game since the start (had a lot of interest, but was in 3 games already). I don't know if LN has posted this stats yet or not, if not I will provide them in my next post.
------------------
On with the game:
"Zombie Zach" is obviously the primary concern at the moment. I don't understand either why he is out right refusing to claim at the moment. It's not like we confirm town or scum at this point and the numbers will change regardless of what happens in during Night 1.
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Thank you. You saved me a lot of time.
Starting: Alpha 6% and Beta 12%
Current: Alpha 9% and Beta 12%
Vote: "Zombie Zach"
We have not firmed up a plan yet for tonight, and Void puts him at L-1 IIRC. This is just to make sure we don't have an accidental hammer.
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
CF has a high scum%, a guilty investigation, and likely a low cop%. Only issue there is CF seems valuable to keep around otherwise.
Arc also has a guilty investigation and is likely lying about the 0% beta.
And now that all the numbers are in, at least one player who NKed seppel and at least one who NKed Art are lying about their scum%. If Zombie claims his investigation, I think I can figure out who.
This 'should' have been a lynch because I missed Audinho's vote in 155, but seeing as how nobody corrected the votecount before now and I didn't catch it, I will allow the day continue due to Tanarin's unvote. The corrected votecount is below:
Zombie Zach (6): Chickenfish, Audinho, Wheat_Grinder, Arcadic, Artifice 101, Void
Tanarin (2): KittyCupCake, NeedMoreAssumptions
Wheat_Grinder (1): tordeck
NeedMoreAssumptions (1): Zombie Zach
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
I would agree with this thought process but CF is someone I am not ready to lynch based on numbers yet. He is more helpful to the thought process of this game for me.
Arcadic fits the guilty and shot on Art category. I would consider this possiblity higher then CF but not higher then Zombie who has not provided anything for this game and is focusing on something that is not scummy for this type of game.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
I did not even see Audinho's vote. Thank you modgod for the reprieve.
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
KCC posts often enough that I'm not too worried.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
Which theory?