Ok, I'm really confused about the gamestate, but I'm all up for Wheat beeing the sacrificial lamb and some tactical nightactions. Not sure whose plan to follow or if they all really are the same, but I'll vote Wheat when we have decided what to do.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
I'm the only one who shot WG. His beta went up because:
1) I have very low alpha, so the effect of me eliminating worlds where he's my beta was probably tiny compared to the number of worlds eliminated by everyone's actions
2) I got a scum result when I copped him, so he's no longer town in any of the worlds I'm cop, so his scumminess in general (and as such beta) should've gone up.
Because of 2, I'm not for lynching WG. At the moment there's a large chance his waveform will collapse as town, which eliminates me as a cop. We need to lynch somebody who only had town readings on them, so the only way we lose cops is if we lynch scum (win-win)
Ok, I'm really confused about the gamestate, but I'm all up for Wheat beeing the sacrificial lamb and some tactical nightactions. Not sure whose plan to follow or if they all really are the same, but I'll vote Wheat when we have decided what to do.
True we need everyone to agree on who they will shot for tonight.
We should have each person target a separate person to analysis likely alpha and beta possiblities.
unvote:
@someone who understands the possiblity probablity: Is it best to have each player target someone different from others with cop investigations?
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3rd party (0) 0/0
Because of 2, I'm not for lynching WG. At the moment there's a large chance his waveform will collapse as town, which eliminates me as a cop. We need to lynch somebody who only had town readings on them, so the only way we lose cops is if we lynch scum (win-win)
Say what? If you lynch someone with town results, who also got town results from another player how do you know you are not lynching the real cop?
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I'm the only one who shot WG. His beta went up because:
1) I have very low alpha, so the effect of me eliminating worlds where he's my beta was probably tiny compared to the number of worlds eliminated by everyone's actions
2) I got a scum result when I copped him, so he's no longer town in any of the worlds I'm cop, so his scumminess in general (and as such beta) should've gone up.
Because of 2, I'm not for lynching WG. At the moment there's a large chance his waveform will collapse as town, which eliminates me as a cop. We need to lynch somebody who only had town readings on them, so the only way we lose cops is if we lynch scum (win-win)
Did anyone have only town reads? Seppel had lots of town reads, but one (can't remember who) got a scum result. Did everyone investigating Art get town?
Errrm, we do lose cops even if we don't lynch scum, don't we? We lose the one we lynch, and in a strange occurance of events that might be the one who turns out to be the real cop.
Wow this is difficult.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
OK guys, I think first off we are looking at this the wrong way, maybe we need to work with a lower subset of games, as opposed to finding out how many we started with, let's figure out how many we have eliminated. Just a thought.
Anyway, as to chickenfish being concerned about not being a cop anymore, I can see his point in the fact that we should at least go into tonight with as many inspects as possible, which means that puts Seppel and WG off limits for today's lynch. On the other hand though, eliminating a possible cop should naturally raise everyone else's cop%.
True we need everyone to agree on who they will shot for tonight.
We should have each person target a separate person to analysis likely alpha and beta possiblities.
I think maybe we should think about 'clearing somebody's name' - that is everybody targeting them with the NK. This makes it impossible for them to be beta, but they still get to participate in discussion as long as there's a chance they're alpha. Seeing as Seppel/Art are already part of the way there, I think they're a good target (depending how many people may have "wasted" a copping on N0 though)
@someone who understands the possiblity probablity: Is it best to have each player target someone different from others with cop investigations?
I understand the concept of the game (have studied quantum mechanics), but as for how to abuse percentages, still struggling... I think we should all investigate somebody we don't intend to lynch for a few days, so that as percentages become a bit more significant we know how to act.
The problem is that we can really only plan this day by day, as it's hard to predict future results, and as I said, if we're trying to make town win in the long run, everybody's best option is to die today so that you become town (probably) and the execution of the plan works.
Quote from pinkys_brain »
Say what? If you lynch someone with town results, who also got town results from another player how do you know you are not lynching the real cop?
Any worlds where your target is cop won't show up on your cop read... because your cop read only considers worlds where you're the cop. However, you're right in that we risk lynching a cop, but unless we think NL is the way to go (I don't), it's a risk we have to take. Maybe somebody with a low cop percentage coming forward (someone suggested this quite early on, can't remember who...) is the way to go...
I wanna say Wheat suggested the low cop part, I suggested lynching myself, but I dunno how low you consider low and not only that my cop, while low, doubled from my starting rate.
EBWODP: Also, Seppel, pinkys brain and zombie zach need to claim their inspects/results. I am making a chart of all this right now.
Claimed already.
Again I copped Seppel and got town results.
I think Arcadic stated he went down in percentage with his guilty result on Seppel.
I think maybe we should think about 'clearing somebody's name' - that is everybody targeting them with the NK. This makes it impossible for them to be beta, but they still get to participate in discussion as long as there's a chance they're alpha. Seeing as Seppel/Art are already part of the way there, I think they're a good target (depending how many people may have "wasted" a copping on N0 though)
How does this give us an idea on who is Alpha?
I still like the idea of each person shooting one person. % for Alpha goes up, which means % for death goes up, which means Alpha is more likely for the person that shot at one person.
As it is we have a group of people as possible Alpha's.
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How does this give us an idea on who is Alpha? I still like the idea of each person shooting one person. % for Alpha goes up, which means % for death goes up, which means Alpha is more likely for the person that shot at one person.
As it is we have a group of people as possible Alpha's.
It doesn't give us idea at alpha unfortunately, it just makes somebody being beta an impossibility.
Also can you explain the bold, I don't quite follow...
As it is, the group of people as possible alphas is everybody - and so it shall remain for most of the game!
When everyone claims, I'm up for being lynched and will vote myself to that end. Else, we can no-lynch and thus any lynches happening tomorrow will have more wave-forms collapsed. Either way.
Wheat_Grinder
Pre-Game:
VT: 78%
Cop: 8%
Alpha: 6%
Beta: 8%
N0
NK target: KittyCupCake
Cop target: Arcadic
Cop result: Town
When everyone claims, I'm up for being lynched and will vote myself to that end. Else, we can no-lynch and thus any lynches happening tomorrow will have more wave-forms collapsed. Either way.
I'm not up for lynchinging you, as expressed earlier. It makes it very likely I'm not cop, and I don't think we want to eliminate our cop just yet.
Whoever we do decide to lynch, though (if anybody agrees to being the lynchee), will need to share their cop result in case their waveform collapses as cop.
If we can find one of the 0%ers who nobody copped, and who has a low cop% themself and got a town hit, I think they're the best candidate.
Also I just realized that if we all cop the same person, then that person's alignment is revealed 100%.
Only if we all get the same result. It's possible (read: very likely) that we won't all get the same result. However, from that point on if we do lynch and they become cop, we'll know the alignment of a set group of players (the ones we all agreed to target each night). If only one person gets a scum result on our chosen target, we lynch that person and hope they don't become cop, then out chosen target's alignment is known for sure.
In short, I agree with the idea but not the implications of the result.
I really don't think you understand how this game works. Someone doesn't "become" the cop. Someone is already the cop, but nobody knows for certain who it is.
I really don't think you understand how this game works. Someone doesn't "become" the cop. Someone is already the cop, but nobody knows for certain who it is.
Ugh, every time I type this it sounds really aggressive and snarky, so you'll just have to trust me that I don't mean it that way, and the internet is lying to you! But:
Seppel, I think it's you who doesn't understand the game. I've already explained the concept of quantum uncertainty, which this game is based around, in this post. I'm not sure if you ignored it, or just misunderstood/disagreed and chose not to comment, but either way it's important.
The game is based around a series of scenarios, all equally likely, but we eliminate possibilities by are actions making some of them no longer viable.
We're not 'disproving' them by our actions, we're actually making them no longer viable, despite the fact they once were...
Yes, with quantum uncertainty, there is no known correct answer, but there is a correct answer.
We don't shape the answer, the answer shapes us. That is, unless my understanding of quantum uncertainty is completely wrong.
Unfortunately from what you've said I think it is. You seem to e implying that atlseal has decided where we'll be eventually, and generated a whole bunch of 'fake' universes that we actually disprove. If that were the case, that's just regular uncertainty.
As things stand, each universe is equally likely - our percentages just represent in how many of those universes we are each role. Not even our all powerful mod can know what roles we'll be by the end
I thought he had a program running in the background that kept track of all the stats and had the real world hidden from his view.
But your idea makes more sense since he said it was possible for the game to be a paradox.
Your idea means we will just be RLing until the game is over or everyone's probablility has his 100%.
Therefore I have determined that my D1 RL will be Wheat.
It's disappointing that you're taking that approach... I've suggested a few ways we can try to intentionally make things happen - is there a reason you're not interested?
You sound annoyed, but it could be the Internet talking so I don't want to leap to that conclusion...
I can't tell you what to do, because I've proposed things that need discussion. However, at this point I think everyone should NK Art, and those who have already should NK Seppel, making them both have highly reduced beta numbers. I think everyone should cop somebody with a low dead %, as they will have higher scum % so cop results will have a bigger effect on the game.
As for lynch... Not one of the above mentioned targets for tonight? I think somebody with low dead%, low cop % with a town hit, and hasn't bit copped as scum by anyone.
Really, this is just to hopefully make big enough changes in the percentages for us to maybe be able to each play a big more independently/craftily tomorrow.
This is what I'd do, but it definitely needs to be discussed and other suggestions thrown around... Not here to play mafia AT people, I'm here to play WITH them
It doesn't give us idea at alpha unfortunately, it just makes somebody being beta an impossibility.
Also can you explain the bold, I don't quite follow...
As it is, the group of people as possible alphas is everybody - and so it shall remain for most of the game!
I thought you said the person who is Alpha is killing someone with making it a higher % of death?
That would make sense with the % being high for Art and Seppel.
You sound annoyed, but it could be the Internet talking so I don't want to leap to that conclusion...
I can't tell you what to do, because I've proposed things that need discussion. However, at this point I think everyone should NK Art, and those who have already should NK Seppel, making them both have highly reduced beta numbers. I think everyone should cop somebody with a low dead %, as they will have higher scum % so cop results will have a bigger effect on the game.
As for lynch... Not one of the above mentioned targets for tonight? I think somebody with low dead%, low cop % with a town hit, and hasn't bit copped as scum by anyone.
Really, this is just to hopefully make big enough changes in the percentages for us to maybe be able to each play a big more independently/craftily tomorrow.
This is what I'd do, but it definitely needs to be discussed and other suggestions thrown around... Not here to play mafia AT people, I'm here to play WITH them
There Beta # has already gone down. This sounds like you just want them more dead. Each person that targeted Art or Seppel is known in what ever universe is not possible for them to be beta with that person.
I still don't see how lynching a person that got a town results helps.
Lets say you lynch me. I copped Seppel got a town results and if I flip cop for some reason and your suggesting to kill Seppel tonight all you do is get rid of the cop and kill the town results today.
We should lynch people who got a scum results as they can not possibly be cop with all these paradox.
And if someone how I missed it and the person who did get scum and was a cop we know to lynch the person day 2.
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at this point I think everyone should NK Art, and those who have already should NK Seppel, making them both have highly reduced beta numbers. I think everyone should cop somebody with a low dead %, as they will have higher scum % so cop results will have a bigger effect on the game.
As for lynch... Not one of the above mentioned targets for tonight? I think somebody with low dead%, low cop % with a town hit, and hasn't bit copped as scum by anyone.
Also I just realized that if we all cop the same person, then that person's alignment is revealed 100%.
Nope, some people are likely to get a different result. If we lynch that person, however, they eliminate some from being the cop, strengthening the cop tendencies of the remaining players.
We're all every role, Seppel. It's only by being killed that our waveforms collapse. Until then, we're playing dozens if not hundreds of games at the same time.
I really don't think you understand how this game works. Someone doesn't "become" the cop. Someone is already the cop, but nobody knows for certain who it is.
Actually somebody DOES become the cop. Only one person at the end will be cop, true, but we all have a chance of becoming him. Even atlseal doesn't know what roles everyone is. If not even the mod knows what our roles are, how can you say our roles are predetermined?
I hate to contradict you, oh great and powerful Seppel, but I'm pretty sure you're the one who doesn't understand the implications of quantum.
Ach never mind I didn't see that there was another page while posting...
I see that you've got the idea now, Seppel.
As far as killing Seppel and Art, I'm up for it, but feel like waiting an extra night to do so will reduce the number of worlds a substantially greater amount.
OK, here is my thoughts on who should be lynched (In no particular order)
Seppel: This one is because either one of 2 things will happen. A) We catch a scum and thus find a very good cop candidate. Or B) He flips town and we eliminate a cop from contention, thus making the remaining cop choices even more likely to be the real cop.
Arcadic: If he flips cop, well damn. But if he flips town but not cop, that should eliminate quite a few worlds.
Chickenfish: See Arcadic
Wheat_Grinder: See Seppel
Noone: This may be our best choice of all assuming we coordinate everything properly.
I really don't think you understand how this game works. Someone doesn't "become" the cop. Someone is already the cop, but nobody knows for certain who it is.
The game is based around a series of scenarios, all equally likely, but we eliminate possibilities by are actions making some of them no longer viable.
We're not 'disproving' them by our actions, we're actually making them no longer viable, despite the fact they once were...
The truth, I think, is actually somewhere between this. I believe that some number of players started out pre-Night Zero as more scummy by percentage than others.
Those that started the game with a higher scum percentage than the numbers that some of us have spilled into the thread aren't going to be forthcoming about it because they know they have a higher chance of winning as scum.
At this point those of us determined to win this game as town need to decide who is being forthcoming about their likely gamestate and game finishing state.
Later in the game, the almost-scum will have to manipulate as best they can to complete the game winning as scum.
One thing I know is keeping me alive and manipulating my percentages to result in me being Cop makes pinkys_brain Town.
Another thing I know is I'm very unlikely to be scum with Seppel because I shot him.
Lastly, I know that if Seppel dies, I'm much more likely scum, and I ain't goin' out like that. So at the moment, I'd like to consider the No Lynch option and let everyone make Night actions again, come back into Day 2 and settle everything with more information.
Unvote; Vote No Lynch
Alternatively I would like to lynch someone that actually alters the gamestate besides myself. I'm open to suggestions as to who that would be.
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The truth, I think, is actually somewhere between this. I believe that some number of players started out pre-Night Zero as more scummy by percentage than others.
Yeah, we didnt' start with all possible game states (otherwise we'd all have just had 8.333333% for everything). However, nothing has been predetermined.
Those that started the game with a higher scum percentage than the numbers that some of us have spilled into the thread aren't going to be forthcoming about it because they know they have a higher chance of winning as scum.
This is true, but we (I include me because my beta went up) are able to manipulate things the way we want.
At this point those of us determined to win this game as town need to decide who is being forthcoming about their likely gamestate and game finishing state.
Later in the game, the almost-scum will have to manipulate as best they can to complete the game winning as scum.
Yeah... later in the game will be much more juicy. Having a 'plan' and lynching anybody who wavers from it will be interesting, because you could lynch a 90% scum and have them be town, throwing everything into disarray.
One thing I know is keeping me alive and manipulating my percentages to result in me being Cop makes pinkys_brain Town.
You can only know for sure he's town in as many worlds as you are cop. Seeing as that's far less than (at this stage) his town percentages, this information only comes into play once we're much closer to a cop.
Lastly, I know that if Seppel dies, I'm much more likely scum, and I ain't goin' out like that. So at the moment, I'd like to consider the No Lynch option and let everyone make Night actions again, come back into Day 2 and settle everything with more information.
If anybody dies, we're much more likely scum, because they're much more likely to die as town...
Alternatively I would like to lynch someone that actually alters the gamestate besides myself. I'm open to suggestions as to who that would be.
I think the suggestion in my previous post is our best lynch - we just need somebody to step forward. I don't qualify as Seppel implied, because I have a decent cop percentage and got a scum result.
Quote from Seppel »
Everyone shoot me tonight. I'm done with this game.
This want remove you from the game. It removes all worlds where you're beta, and means you're dead in all worlds where you're town, but as long as you're alive anywhere (you will be in the worlds where you're alpha), you still participate. The only ways we fully die in this game are being lynched, or having 0% chance of being scum and being NKed in every other world.
As has been stated before, odds are scum does not even know they are scum right now. Basically random lynching will eliminate at minimum one possible gamestate and more likely more possible gamestates. Note this was my idea before Seppel came forward with a better idea.
How do you know that the scum don't know they are Scum Right Now?(or more likely to be scum.)
Why is random lynching better then no lynching?
Why is random lynching better then lynching someone who will get rid of the most Worlds?
Again, we are planning on breaking this game. This game as of now is much like texas Justice Mafia games. In that setup where you have 2 mafia and 10 one shot vigs. The logic for breaking that game holds true here as well.
But N0 everybody didn't pair off.
Is the game still breakable?
Really does not apply here ATM as again, scum does not know for sure they are scum.
Who says? If someones %Scum is higher then others in the thread they would know it's more likely they are scum.
More information obviously. There is no harm in claiming if your v. town percentage went up and down. Not only that, since we are breaking the game, we need to know his info in order to know how the % work.
If someone's V.town percentage goes up that means their chance on being the cop went down.
Mafia want to find the cop.
Why not? I mean as of now it is obvious who you shot, but it would be nice to have confirmation.
When everyone claims, I'm up for being lynched and will vote myself to that end. Else, we can no-lynch and thus any lynches happening tomorrow will have more wave-forms collapsed. Either way.
Wheat_Grinder
Pre-Game:
VT: 78%
Cop: 8%
Alpha: 6%
Beta: 8%
N0
NK target: KittyCupCake
Cop target: Arcadic
Cop result: Town
Ugh, every time I type this it sounds really aggressive and snarky, so you'll just have to trust me that I don't mean it that way, and the internet is lying to you! But:
Seppel, I think it's you who doesn't understand the game. I've already explained the concept wof quantum uncertainty, which this game is based around, in this post. I'm not sure if you ignored it, or just misunderstood/disagreed and chose not to comment, but either way it's important.
The game is based around a series of scenarios, all equally likely, but we eliminate possibilities by are actions making some of them no longer viable.
We're not 'disproving' them by our actions, we're actually making them no longer viable, despite the fact they once were...
You have't been playing Mafia with the rest of us.
You've buried yourself in the game mechanic and it's %100 of your posts. Vote NeedMoreAssumptions
It seems pretty safe to say that nobody here has played this sort of Mafia. It's all about trying to abuse the mechanics. Also, that's the first of NeedMoreAssumptions' posts you quote, and that's your reason for voting? Either you have a higher than average scum percent and have decided you need to be scummy and off, or you're not interested in playing the game you signed up for.
Statements like
Who says? If someones %Scum is higher then others in the thread they would know it's more likely they are scum.
don't make sense. It's only more likely they're scum if lynched. Otherwise it's just a representation of how many worlds they're scum in. It's easy to eliminate a large amount of these, by asking people to cop and/or NK them.
Also:
Oh Cool.
Thanks.
Why? Why did you say this? Just felt like going out of your way to be rude?
@everyone: I am getting the same condescending tones that Chicken is showing. mAy I make a proposal that we lynch Zombie Zach today for being generally useless and anti-town. Yes, I know you can't get too much behavioral analysis here, but there is no reason for anyone to be acting one way or the other today. He obviously does not want to work with the town.
How do you know that the scum don't know they are Scum Right Now?(or more likely to be scum.)
Someone knows they are more likely scum than others, because others like myself have claimed. However, I could be scum. Hell, I AM scum in 15% of the worlds we're playing right now.
Why is random lynching better then no lynching?
Why is random lynching better then lynching someone who will get rid of the most Worlds?
No answers.
But N0 everybody didn't pair off.
Is the game still breakable?
Probably. If not breakable, we can force it down into certain conclusions. Maybe.
Who says? If someones %Scum is higher then others in the thread they would know it's more likely they are scum.
AND THAT'S WHY WE MASSCLAIM.
If someone's V.town percentage goes up that means their chance on being the cop went down.
Mafia want to find the cop.
Mafia also don't know who they are.
Reasons already given.
Why pushing so hard for a massclaim?
BECAUSE WE ARE TRYING TO BREAK THE GAME.
Why are you pushing so hard for a massclaim?
This game needs breaking, and full-claiming is the hammer.
@everyone: I am getting the same condescending tones that Chicken is showing. mAy I make a proposal that we lynch Zombie Zach today for being generally useless and anti-town. Yes, I know you can't get too much behavioral analysis here, but there is no reason for anyone to be acting one way or the other today. He obviously does not want to work with the town.
Vote "Zombie" Zach
Completely agree. Also, he has 0% death, and without further claims it seems like he fits into the category of who I thought was a good lynch anyway. Vote: "Zombie" Zach
So I still think everybody who shot Seppel should shoot Art, everybody who shot Art should shoot tordeck (Seppel), and everybody who shot neither should also shoot tordeck. This will leave us with two people who are very unlikely to be scum, by eliminating all of tordeck's beta roles, and most of Art's.
Unsure how to play the cop... I still think all copping the same person is the way to go, just not sure how to best choose a target...
How do we all feel about this plan?
Completely agree. Also, he has 0% death, and without further claims it seems like he fits into the category of who I thought was a good lynch anyway. Vote: "Zombie" Zach
So I still think everybody who shot Seppel should shoot Art, everybody who shot Art should shoot tordeck (Seppel), and everybody who shot neither should also shoot tordeck. This will leave us with two people who are very unlikely to be scum, by eliminating all of tordeck's beta roles, and most of Art's.
Unsure how to play the cop... I still think all copping the same person is the way to go, just not sure how to best choose a target...
How do we all feel about this plan?
If this was a regular game, I would vote you.
The fact that I'm not makes me chuckle
The reason I would vote you is I think that by suggesting everyone switch to voting me and Tordeck you are ignoring that it would raise our dead percentages to very close to 100%. This would make us a later game double-kill for any of those players if they were to increase there scum percentages. That seems bad for me, a player determined to win as Town.
The fact that I also agree a "Z"Z lynch is not out of the question because he's not cooperating bugs me given the above.
This game is fun
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It seems pretty safe to say that nobody here has played this sort of Mafia. It's all about trying to abuse the mechanics. Also, that's the first of NeedMoreAssumptions' posts you quote, and that's your reason for voting?
I suggest you take a look over his posts.
While other people are trying to figure a way to break the game or hunt Mafia what is he doing?
That is why I am voting him.
It is a GREAT reason. He's active lurking.
Either you have a higher than average scum percent and have decided you need to be scummy and off, or you're not interested in playing the game you signed up for.
The first part seems like a huge over reaction to a well place vote. Why is my vote on NeedsAss Scummy?
Why am I scum for voting Needless?
I don't recall you saying anything about him so why the rush to defend him?
Statements like don't make sense. It's only more likely they're scum if lynched. Otherwise it's just a representation of how many worlds they're scum in. It's easy to eliminate a large amount of these, by asking people to cop and/or NK them.
Oh.
Also:Why? Why did you say this? Just felt like going out of your way to be rude?
I Don't understand how that came across as rude.
I've obviously be having problems with The Math Theory and you explained it in a way I could understand.
@everyone: I am getting the same condescending tones that Chicken is showing. mAy I make a proposal that we lynch Zombie Zach today for being generally useless and anti-town. Yes, I know you can't get too much behavioral analysis here, but there is no reason for anyone to be acting one way or the other today. He obviously does not want to work with the town.
Vote "Zombie" Zach
1. Quotes of my condescending tones.
2. Proof that speaking with a condescending tone is scummy.
3. Quotes of my uslessness and anti-town behavior.
4. Proof that there is no reason for anyone acting one way or the other this day.
5. If you felt that there was no reason foranyone to be acting one way or the other why were you fine with Arti's"I am going to play like I am town" post?
I see no reason to shoot the cow when we have no need of meat.
Someone knows they are more likely scum than others, because others like myself have claimed. However, I could be scum. Hell, I AM scum in 15% of the worlds we're playing right now.
So if some people are more likely to be scum then others shouldn't they get lynched instead of a random person.
No answers.
Then I refuse.
Probably. If not breakable, we can force it down into certain conclusions. Maybe.
I am not claiming due to there being a probably, Maybe chance of maybe breaking the game.
Mafia also don't know who they are.
But we just talked about how some people have a higher % then others.
Completely agree. Also, he has 0% death, and without further claims it seems like he fits into the category of who I thought was a good lynch anyway. Vote: "Zombie" ZachSo I still think everybody who shot Seppel should shoot Art, everybody who shot Art should shoot tordeck (Seppel), and everybody who shot neither should also shoot tordeck. This will leave us with two people who are very unlikely to be scum, by eliminating all of tordeck's beta roles, and most of Art's.
Unsure how to play the cop... I still think all copping the same person is the way to go, just not sure how to best choose a target...
How do we all feel about this plan?
So why not vote me in the first post?
Why wait for someone else to start the wagon so you can Barn the wagon and jump on?
If you agreed %100 with what Tan said why no vote from you before he posted?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Why Ban Affinity? Who doesn't like vomiting their hand into Play Turn 2?
The reason I would vote you is I think that by suggesting everyone switch to voting me and Tordeck you are ignoring that it would raise our dead percentages to very close to 100%. This would make us a later game double-kill for any of those players if they were to increase there scum percentages. That seems bad for me, a player determined to win as Town.
The fact that I also agree a "Z"Z lynch is not out of the question because he's not cooperating bugs me given the above.
This game is fun
You mean instructing scum who to NK is bad in regular mafia? That explains a lot! But seriously how good is this game.
You make a good point, but if we make you not beta, the only way you can be killed is if we lynch somebody as alpha (you die as town but are crazy close to winning anyway), or if we cop you guys so much that you could only be town.
Unfortunately, as soon as somebody is revealed as alpha, HEAPS of people will die anyway. It doesn't matter if it's you two or anybody else, as soon as somebody is made alpha, all their previous NKs will 100% have happened. The reason I'm proposing this method is because it's the most efficient way of having almost 2 completely non-beta players, through us accidentally almost getting there N0 anyway.
If everyone else jumped of a bridge would you?
I've only been doing that work that should have gone into it before people started claiming.
W_G says the game is breakable but he has no idea if is still breakable.
It was compared to Texas Justice but our N.O. was nothing like the way they said to break the game.
A mass plan seems poorly thought out to say the least.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Why Ban Affinity? Who doesn't like vomiting their hand into Play Turn 2?
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I just want the info on those that were shot.
unvote:
WG's beta going up and being shot makes no sense.
vote: WG
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
1) I have very low alpha, so the effect of me eliminating worlds where he's my beta was probably tiny compared to the number of worlds eliminated by everyone's actions
2) I got a scum result when I copped him, so he's no longer town in any of the worlds I'm cop, so his scumminess in general (and as such beta) should've gone up.
Because of 2, I'm not for lynching WG. At the moment there's a large chance his waveform will collapse as town, which eliminates me as a cop. We need to lynch somebody who only had town readings on them, so the only way we lose cops is if we lynch scum (win-win)
True we need everyone to agree on who they will shot for tonight.
We should have each person target a separate person to analysis likely alpha and beta possiblities.
unvote:
@someone who understands the possiblity probablity: Is it best to have each player target someone different from others with cop investigations?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Say what? If you lynch someone with town results, who also got town results from another player how do you know you are not lynching the real cop?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Did anyone have only town reads? Seppel had lots of town reads, but one (can't remember who) got a scum result. Did everyone investigating Art get town?
Errrm, we do lose cops even if we don't lynch scum, don't we? We lose the one we lynch, and in a strange occurance of events that might be the one who turns out to be the real cop.
Wow this is difficult.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Wheat_Grinder (1): Seppel
Arcadic (1): Artifice 101
No Lynch (1): Wheat_Grinder
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Anyway, as to chickenfish being concerned about not being a cop anymore, I can see his point in the fact that we should at least go into tonight with as many inspects as possible, which means that puts Seppel and WG off limits for today's lynch. On the other hand though, eliminating a possible cop should naturally raise everyone else's cop%.
God I dunno what to do here.
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I understand the concept of the game (have studied quantum mechanics), but as for how to abuse percentages, still struggling... I think we should all investigate somebody we don't intend to lynch for a few days, so that as percentages become a bit more significant we know how to act.
The problem is that we can really only plan this day by day, as it's hard to predict future results, and as I said, if we're trying to make town win in the long run, everybody's best option is to die today so that you become town (probably) and the execution of the plan works.
Any worlds where your target is cop won't show up on your cop read... because your cop read only considers worlds where you're the cop. However, you're right in that we risk lynching a cop, but unless we think NL is the way to go (I don't), it's a risk we have to take. Maybe somebody with a low cop percentage coming forward (someone suggested this quite early on, can't remember who...) is the way to go...
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Claimed already.
Again I copped Seppel and got town results.
I think Arcadic stated he went down in percentage with his guilty result on Seppel.
How does this give us an idea on who is Alpha?
I still like the idea of each person shooting one person. % for Alpha goes up, which means % for death goes up, which means Alpha is more likely for the person that shot at one person.
As it is we have a group of people as possible Alpha's.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Also can you explain the bold, I don't quite follow...
As it is, the group of people as possible alphas is everybody - and so it shall remain for most of the game!
When everyone claims, I'm up for being lynched and will vote myself to that end. Else, we can no-lynch and thus any lynches happening tomorrow will have more wave-forms collapsed. Either way.
Wheat_Grinder
Pre-Game:
VT: 78%
Cop: 8%
Alpha: 6%
Beta: 8%
N0
NK target: KittyCupCake
Cop target: Arcadic
Cop result: Town
Day 1
VT: 76%
Cop: 9%
Alpha: 6%
Beta: 9%
Also I just realized that if we all cop the same person, then that person's alignment is revealed 100%.
Whoever we do decide to lynch, though (if anybody agrees to being the lynchee), will need to share their cop result in case their waveform collapses as cop.
If we can find one of the 0%ers who nobody copped, and who has a low cop% themself and got a town hit, I think they're the best candidate.
Only if we all get the same result. It's possible (read: very likely) that we won't all get the same result. However, from that point on if we do lynch and they become cop, we'll know the alignment of a set group of players (the ones we all agreed to target each night). If only one person gets a scum result on our chosen target, we lynch that person and hope they don't become cop, then out chosen target's alignment is known for sure.
In short, I agree with the idea but not the implications of the result.
Seppel, I think it's you who doesn't understand the game. I've already explained the concept of quantum uncertainty, which this game is based around, in this post. I'm not sure if you ignored it, or just misunderstood/disagreed and chose not to comment, but either way it's important.
The game is based around a series of scenarios, all equally likely, but we eliminate possibilities by are actions making some of them no longer viable.
We're not 'disproving' them by our actions, we're actually making them no longer viable, despite the fact they once were...
We don't shape the answer, the answer shapes us. That is, unless my understanding of quantum uncertainty is completely wrong.
As things stand, each universe is equally likely - our percentages just represent in how many of those universes we are each role. Not even our all powerful mod can know what roles we'll be by the end
But your idea makes more sense since he said it was possible for the game to be a paradox.
Your idea means we will just be RLing until the game is over or everyone's probablility has his 100%.
Therefore I have determined that my D1 RL will be Wheat.
It's disappointing that you're taking that approach... I've suggested a few ways we can try to intentionally make things happen - is there a reason you're not interested?
I can't tell you what to do, because I've proposed things that need discussion. However, at this point I think everyone should NK Art, and those who have already should NK Seppel, making them both have highly reduced beta numbers. I think everyone should cop somebody with a low dead %, as they will have higher scum % so cop results will have a bigger effect on the game.
As for lynch... Not one of the above mentioned targets for tonight? I think somebody with low dead%, low cop % with a town hit, and hasn't bit copped as scum by anyone.
Really, this is just to hopefully make big enough changes in the percentages for us to maybe be able to each play a big more independently/craftily tomorrow.
This is what I'd do, but it definitely needs to be discussed and other suggestions thrown around... Not here to play mafia AT people, I'm here to play WITH them
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
I thought you said the person who is Alpha is killing someone with making it a higher % of death?
That would make sense with the % being high for Art and Seppel.
There Beta # has already gone down. This sounds like you just want them more dead. Each person that targeted Art or Seppel is known in what ever universe is not possible for them to be beta with that person.
I still don't see how lynching a person that got a town results helps.
Lets say you lynch me. I copped Seppel got a town results and if I flip cop for some reason and your suggesting to kill Seppel tonight all you do is get rid of the cop and kill the town results today.
We should lynch people who got a scum results as they can not possibly be cop with all these paradox.
And if someone how I missed it and the person who did get scum and was a cop we know to lynch the person day 2.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Great. I'll kill Wheat then.
Ok let's lynch you then.
Unvote, vote Chickenfish
Nope, some people are likely to get a different result. If we lynch that person, however, they eliminate some from being the cop, strengthening the cop tendencies of the remaining players.
We're all every role, Seppel. It's only by being killed that our waveforms collapse. Until then, we're playing dozens if not hundreds of games at the same time.
Actually somebody DOES become the cop. Only one person at the end will be cop, true, but we all have a chance of becoming him. Even atlseal doesn't know what roles everyone is. If not even the mod knows what our roles are, how can you say our roles are predetermined?
I hate to contradict you, oh great and powerful Seppel, but I'm pretty sure you're the one who doesn't understand the implications of quantum.
I see that you've got the idea now, Seppel.
As far as killing Seppel and Art, I'm up for it, but feel like waiting an extra night to do so will reduce the number of worlds a substantially greater amount.
Seppel: This one is because either one of 2 things will happen. A) We catch a scum and thus find a very good cop candidate. Or B) He flips town and we eliminate a cop from contention, thus making the remaining cop choices even more likely to be the real cop.
Arcadic: If he flips cop, well damn. But if he flips town but not cop, that should eliminate quite a few worlds.
Chickenfish: See Arcadic
Wheat_Grinder: See Seppel
Noone: This may be our best choice of all assuming we coordinate everything properly.
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The truth, I think, is actually somewhere between this. I believe that some number of players started out pre-Night Zero as more scummy by percentage than others.
Those that started the game with a higher scum percentage than the numbers that some of us have spilled into the thread aren't going to be forthcoming about it because they know they have a higher chance of winning as scum.
At this point those of us determined to win this game as town need to decide who is being forthcoming about their likely gamestate and game finishing state.
Later in the game, the almost-scum will have to manipulate as best they can to complete the game winning as scum.
One thing I know is keeping me alive and manipulating my percentages to result in me being Cop makes pinkys_brain Town.
Another thing I know is I'm very unlikely to be scum with Seppel because I shot him.
Lastly, I know that if Seppel dies, I'm much more likely scum, and I ain't goin' out like that. So at the moment, I'd like to consider the No Lynch option and let everyone make Night actions again, come back into Day 2 and settle everything with more information.
Unvote; Vote No Lynch
Alternatively I would like to lynch someone that actually alters the gamestate besides myself. I'm open to suggestions as to who that would be.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
This is true, but we (I include me because my beta went up) are able to manipulate things the way we want.
Yeah... later in the game will be much more juicy. Having a 'plan' and lynching anybody who wavers from it will be interesting, because you could lynch a 90% scum and have them be town, throwing everything into disarray.
You can only know for sure he's town in as many worlds as you are cop. Seeing as that's far less than (at this stage) his town percentages, this information only comes into play once we're much closer to a cop.
This makes it literally impossible for him to be your beta. If he shoots you, there's actually no way you're buddies.
If anybody dies, we're much more likely scum, because they're much more likely to die as town...
I think the suggestion in my previous post is our best lynch - we just need somebody to step forward. I don't qualify as Seppel implied, because I have a decent cop percentage and got a scum result.
This want remove you from the game. It removes all worlds where you're beta, and means you're dead in all worlds where you're town, but as long as you're alive anywhere (you will be in the worlds where you're alpha), you still participate. The only ways we fully die in this game are being lynched, or having 0% chance of being scum and being NKed in every other world.
Why should we massclaim?
Why are you pushing for a massclaim?
How do you know that the scum don't know they are Scum Right Now?(or more likely to be scum.)
Why is random lynching better then no lynching?
Why is random lynching better then lynching someone who will get rid of the most Worlds?
But N0 everybody didn't pair off.
Is the game still breakable?
Who says? If someones %Scum is higher then others in the thread they would know it's more likely they are scum.
If someone's V.town percentage goes up that means their chance on being the cop went down.
Mafia want to find the cop.
Reasons already given.
Why pushing so hard for a massclaim?
No still.
Why are you pushing so hard for a massclaim?
Oh Cool.
Thanks.
You have't been playing Mafia with the rest of us.
You've buried yourself in the game mechanic and it's %100 of your posts.
Vote NeedMoreAssumptions
Statements like don't make sense. It's only more likely they're scum if lynched. Otherwise it's just a representation of how many worlds they're scum in. It's easy to eliminate a large amount of these, by asking people to cop and/or NK them.
Also: Why? Why did you say this? Just felt like going out of your way to be rude?
Vote "Zombie" Zach
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Zombie Zach (1): Tanarin
Tanarin (2): KittyCupCake, NeedMoreAssumptions
NeedMoreAssumptions (1): Zombie Zach
No Lynch (2): Wheat_Grinder, Artifice 101
With 12 votes, it's 7 to lynch.
Because we're breaking the game.
We're trying to break the game dude.
Someone knows they are more likely scum than others, because others like myself have claimed. However, I could be scum. Hell, I AM scum in 15% of the worlds we're playing right now.
No answers.
Probably. If not breakable, we can force it down into certain conclusions. Maybe.
AND THAT'S WHY WE MASSCLAIM.
Mafia also don't know who they are.
Reasons already given.
BECAUSE WE ARE TRYING TO BREAK THE GAME.
This game needs breaking, and full-claiming is the hammer.
Vote Wheaties
The Family
Vote: "Zombie" Zach
So I still think everybody who shot Seppel should shoot Art, everybody who shot Art should shoot tordeck (Seppel), and everybody who shot neither should also shoot tordeck. This will leave us with two people who are very unlikely to be scum, by eliminating all of tordeck's beta roles, and most of Art's.
Unsure how to play the cop... I still think all copping the same person is the way to go, just not sure how to best choose a target...
How do we all feel about this plan?
The fact that I'm not makes me chuckle
The reason I would vote you is I think that by suggesting everyone switch to voting me and Tordeck you are ignoring that it would raise our dead percentages to very close to 100%. This would make us a later game double-kill for any of those players if they were to increase there scum percentages. That seems bad for me, a player determined to win as Town.
The fact that I also agree a "Z"Z lynch is not out of the question because he's not cooperating bugs me given the above.
This game is fun
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
I suggest you take a look over his posts.
While other people are trying to figure a way to break the game or hunt Mafia what is he doing?
That is why I am voting him.
It is a GREAT reason. He's active lurking.
The first part seems like a huge over reaction to a well place vote. Why is my vote on NeedsAss Scummy?
Why am I scum for voting Needless?
I don't recall you saying anything about him so why the rush to defend him?
Oh.
I Don't understand how that came across as rude.
I've obviously be having problems with The Math Theory and you explained it in a way I could understand.
Why would you think I was being rude?
1. Quotes of my condescending tones.
2. Proof that speaking with a condescending tone is scummy.
3. Quotes of my uslessness and anti-town behavior.
4. Proof that there is no reason for anyone acting one way or the other this day.
5. If you felt that there was no reason foranyone to be acting one way or the other why were you fine with Arti's"I am going to play like I am town" post?
I see no reason to shoot the cow when we have no need of meat.
So if some people are more likely to be scum then others shouldn't they get lynched instead of a random person.
Then I refuse.
I am not claiming due to there being a probably, Maybe chance of maybe breaking the game.
But we just talked about how some people have a higher % then others.
So why not vote me in the first post?
Why wait for someone else to start the wagon so you can Barn the wagon and jump on?
If you agreed %100 with what Tan said why no vote from you before he posted?
You make a good point, but if we make you not beta, the only way you can be killed is if we lynch somebody as alpha (you die as town but are crazy close to winning anyway), or if we cop you guys so much that you could only be town.
Unfortunately, as soon as somebody is revealed as alpha, HEAPS of people will die anyway. It doesn't matter if it's you two or anybody else, as soon as somebody is made alpha, all their previous NKs will 100% have happened. The reason I'm proposing this method is because it's the most efficient way of having almost 2 completely non-beta players, through us accidentally almost getting there N0 anyway.
If everyone else jumped of a bridge would you?
I've only been doing that work that should have gone into it before people started claiming.
W_G says the game is breakable but he has no idea if is still breakable.
It was compared to Texas Justice but our N.O. was nothing like the way they said to break the game.
A mass plan seems poorly thought out to say the least.