Well, it should not be too hard to figure out how many games we are playing currently. We know one successful killed equals 6%. We also know there is only 2 states in which a kill will not happen to you, when you are the alpha and when your beta hits you. Can't do the math ATM, but those facts should help.
So Vanilla Town percentage can change. As figured.
Attempting to break the game by guessing the "world" is futile. There is no actual "base" world. It simply changes based on actions.
Kill percentage is not at a base of 6%. This is known due to the fact that Artifice's average "death percentage" is 9% and Seppel's 9.75% per person.
A) Unlikely that the game is that easily breakable, so I'm up to hear it. Given that deaths will turn up as a semirandom alignment, it is unlikely that it is breakable like that.
B) Don't care. I already know pretty much everything I need.
C) See B.
Possible list of items that could affect percentages:
Alpha Mafia going up:
Non-alpha mafia player dies. Possibly when other players get closer to death.
Investigated as scum.
Alpha Mafia going down:
Alpha mafia player dies (0%).
Investigated as town.
Beta Mafia going up:
Was not targeted by Alpha Mafia player.
Investigated as scum.
Beta Mafia going down:
Was targeted for a kill.
Investigated as town.
It is very probable that not being shot increases your Beta percentage. Vanilla Town percentage remains static. Conversely, if you were shot, your Beta percentage would decrease for obvious reasons.
If you copped someone and received town, your cop percentage would most likely increase. Mafia percentages for whoever you targeted would probably decrease, as would cop percentages.
Did anyone have a change in their Vanilla Town percentage?
Not true.
My Vanilla precentage went up. My alpha went down and I received town results but my cop % went down 1%
My beta went from 8 to 9 however.
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
a) I believe I'm town and I don't see how it can be broken today but considering my analysts thus far I can see scum being caught and game over by day 3 pretty easily.
I think I can see what chicken is thinking so I don't see anyone that hasn't thought about it thus far either.
b) Sure why not
c) sure why not.
I made notes on those claimed thus far:
targets
KCC - Seppel
pinky - Seppel
Seppel - Art
Tan: Art
LN: Art
Art - Seppel
Chicken - WG
WG - KCC
NeedMore - Art
Audio - seppel
Arcadic - Art
I'm missing one person (not sure who yet because I'm doing 3 things at the same time, weeeeeeee multi-task powers).
I did the math odds for Seppel and Art. Seppel should have one more person shooting at him if everyone was at or around 6%, but that is not the case. Art would have 6 people. Depending on who I'm missing and who they claim will lead me more on who to lynch today and no I don't think no lynching is good but I do think targeting different people from each person is a good idea.
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mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
I think Seppel's idea will help condense some of the waveforms down. I'm up for it, personally.
The only thing I might amend is that the two who would shoot Seppel and Art might shoot someone else, to let it go on longer.
Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
Before the day ends, though, we should claim opening percentages, all actions, and new percentages, however.
@Pinky: Huh, despite doing similarly, my cop and beta increased while my vanilla decreased.
Yeah, my percentages did the same thing as Wheat.
I am all for a nolynch here if it will help bring things more into focus. Though I am wondering if instead of shooting the person below us on the player list, pair up and that pair shoots each other, easiest pairup is use the playerlist and 1 and 2 shoot each other, 3 and 4 shoot each other etc etc. That way it also eliminates Alpha/beta pairs. I propose this because as of now, neither Seppel nor Artifice can be a pair with each other, as they both shot each other N0. Eliminating more pairs would be more useful than just shooting the person below us on the list.
One concern I am having though is with KCC. Why is she so insistent on Scum acting like scum?
Is that a combination of VT and cop or just VT? Because if it's VT, I'd suspect you're the towniest of us all.
Sorry math was bad. It was a combo together of 85%, still the likelyhood of town in my case increase and scum decreased.
The only thing I'm confused about is if my result on Seppel was town and Seppel has a chance of being town I would think my chance of being cop would increase but it did not, it decreased instead.
I'm just waiting on Zombie to tell us whom he targetted with his shot and I will be crunching some numbers.
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mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
Should be obvious by now who he shot, but I'll let Zombie do his claim.
Duh.
Since the precentage is a bit higher for Seppel with less people I assume the alpha is someone that shot Seppel?
Of course someone who is Alpha could lie about whom they targetted......thinking.
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mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
Would someone who is Alpha know that they are alpha any more than any other? Unless everyone posts theire percentages and one is clearly higher than the other, I don't think he even knows himself.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
@Artifice: I am worried about that too. Maybe we need a sacrificial lamb here to take a player off the board and up the odds. I am willing to volunteer unless someone has a better idea.
Lynching someone not due to Scummyness sense like a Bad idea.
Someone with a low cop% (under 4) should step forward as today's sacrificial lynch.
Tonight we have everyone shoot at a different assigned player.
Anyone whose death% doesn't change tomorrow, we lynch whoever was supposed to shoot them for not following directions.
However, if everyone plays along nicely, then we lynch whoever's target died the most for being most likely scum.
In everyone's next post, please state whether you would like to:
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
All the jockying will happen in the later game. Because of this, I'm commiting to winning as town, since my chances otherwise are super slim obviously. I commit to this at a level of Lynch All Liars.
I want to know who is lying and more about the precentages.
I'm thinking that no lynch is probably the best thing and doing targets for each person to target will narrow down the beta chances and alpha chances.
My proposal is thus:
I think the people that shot at seppel should shot at one another:
Needmore shots Tan
Tan shots NeedMore
LN shots Arcadic
Arcadic shots LN
Then we have left is :
Seppel shots Zombie
Zombie shots Seppel
WG shots Chicken
Chicken shots WG
This will still give us information. IE: Seppel shots at Zombie who has 0% right now we will know Seppel shot precent is. Art shots Audio and he is at 0% we will know his shot precent.
We keep note of what the precentage is before day 1 ends and math should tell us who shots at what precentage tomorrow.
Thoughts, questions, comments?
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mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
I am all for a nolynch here if it will help bring things more into focus. Though I am wondering if instead of shooting the person below us on the player list, pair up and that pair shoots each other, easiest pairup is use the playerlist and 1 and 2 shoot each other, 3 and 4 shoot each other etc etc. That way it also eliminates Alpha/beta pairs. I propose this because as of now, neither Seppel nor Artifice can be a pair with each other, as they both shot each other N0. Eliminating more pairs would be more useful than just shooting the person below us on the list.
I'm good either way, but I agree that might be better. Perhaps we could pair up for NK's, round-robin for copping?
One concern I am having though is with KCC. Why is she so insistent on Scum acting like scum?
Almost wondering if this is scum trying to fish out her buddy, but for now it is not much to go on. Just something to note.
Are you proposing she's scummy, when not even she knows?
Sorry math was bad. It was a combo together of 85%, still the likelyhood of town in my case increase and scum decreased.
That makes sense because it mirrors mine rather closely.
The only thing I'm confused about is if my result on Seppel was town and Seppel has a chance of being town I would think my chance of being cop would increase but it did not, it decreased instead.
It probably changed because of the actions of others.
I'm just waiting on Zombie to tell us whom he targetted with his shot and I will be crunching some numbers.
Has he even showed up yet? I can't remember seeing him.
Lynching someone not due to Scummyness sense like a Bad idea.
It's the same as lynching a Random person Yes?
As has been stated before, odds are scum does not even know they are scum right now. Basically random lynching will eliminate at minimum one possible gamestate and more likely more possible gamestates. Note this was my idea before Seppel came forward with a better idea.
What.
I don't understand.
Again, we are planning on breaking this game. This game as of now is much like texas Justice Mafia games. In that setup where you have 2 mafia and 10 one shot vigs. The logic for breaking that game holds true here as well.
But Sepel's Mafia game is heroically stronger then his Town game?
Really does not apply here ATM as again, scum does not know for sure they are scum.
Why should anyone claim this?
More information obviously. There is no harm in claiming if your v. town percentage went up and down. Not only that, since we are breaking the game, we need to know his info in order to know how the % work.
No to everything until I understand more.
I am Stupid and don't understand.
Also I'm pretty sure that the Last time you thought you broke the game all the Town castrated themselves
Also I'm pretty sure that the Last time you thought you broke the game all the Town castrated themselves
Obviously, you are a gimmick. But this time I see no MAJOR problem with Seppel's plan.
I'm not sure I am going to do this.
Why not? I mean as of now it is obvious who you shot, but it would be nice to have confirmation.
@Wheat_Grinder: Well i do find it odd that she would be so demanding that scum start acting like scum when they don't know for sure if they will end up scum. She seems pretty confident that 25% or more = possible scum. It almost reeks of inside info. Only reason why I am a bit cautious is it could be genuine frustration over something. It is still noteworthy though in this game given the circumstances.
@Wheat_Grinder: Well i do find it odd that she would be so demanding that scum start acting like scum when they don't know for sure if they will end up scum. She seems pretty confident that 25% or more = possible scum. It almost reeks of inside info. Only reason why I am a bit cautious is it could be genuine frustration over something. It is still noteworthy though in this game given the circumstances.
I want to know who is lying and more about the precentages.
I'm thinking that no lynch is probably the best thing and doing targets for each person to target will narrow down the beta chances and alpha chances.
No lynch is terrible. Lynching people is the only way to reliably reduce number of worlds. I'm going to share what I thought was breaking the game, then point out the flaw, because I think this will help people's analysis.
I initially thought that if we all agree to NK the same person, they're only alive as scum. Then we lynch them as scum, rinse and repeat, win by night 3. However, the problem is that they still exist as town in a whole bunch of worlds, it's just they're already dead in those worlds. Thus, lynching them and having their waveform collapse means there's just a really big chance we're lynching a corpse.
Also, all this talk of 'scum don't know they're scum yet' - that's simplifying it too much. What's actually happening, is there aren't any scum yet. This is why I'm not willing to say who I copped to get a scum result. It means their only logical target tonight is me, so that in any world's that I'm cop and they're alpha, they've killed me.
This will still give us information. IE: Seppel shots at Zombie who has 0% right now we will know Seppel shot precent is. Art shots Audio and he is at 0% we will know his shot precent.
We keep note of what the precentage is before day 1 ends and math should tell us who shots at what precentage tomorrow.
Thoughts, questions, comments?
Nobody has a 'shot percent'. These numbers will change every day and night. In fact, there is a good chance a bunch of people will be 'healed' tonight (decrease in death%), seeing as worlds in which they're dead may be eliminated.
Furthermore, Seppel shooting Zombie on 0% will almost definitely give Zombie a different death% tomorrow than if he were to shoot me, also on 0%. It all depends on how many worlds in which we're Seppel's beta, and how many worlds in which Seppel is alpha are affected by various people's cop results.
It probably changed because of the actions of others.
Exactly. Copping at all will always reduce the number of worlds in which you're cop (town result eliminates worlds in which you were cop and your target was scum and scum result opposite effect), it's just a matter of how many worlds total are reduced by the actions of others.
Again, we are planning on breaking this game. This game as of now is much like texas Justice Mafia games. In that setup where you have 2 mafia and 10 one shot vigs. The logic for breaking that game holds true here as well.
The situation is different, because in that setup there were defined roles, so it was in the vigs' interest to figure out how to beat scum. It's currently in nobody's interest to do this, as yuo're setting yourself up for a reasonable chance at losing (unless it involves a deal of "let me be town and win" that enough people are willing to go along with... then you've gotten yourself 100% win).
If everyone wants their current town % to be their chance of winning (which it is if we try to contrive a "town wins" strategy), then we may as well just agree to lynch randomly from here on out.
@Wheat_Grinder: Well i do find it odd that she would be so demanding that scum start acting like scum when they don't know for sure if they will end up scum. She seems pretty confident that 25% or more = possible scum. It almost reeks of inside info. Only reason why I am a bit cautious is it could be genuine frustration over something. It is still noteworthy though in this game given the circumstances.
What inside info could she have? This isn't a bastard game right? We're all aware of all the rules...
Hmm... just had a thought as to why Artifice's and Seppel's death % is higher than everyone else's. We have inspects on both of them, that would increase their death%, wouldn't it? (As any world where they are mafia and the inspector is cop have been eliminated)
EBWODP: Also, not so much that, as much as a really high scum score herself. Could be Alpha or beta, but basically she is looking for her partner and trying to send signals.
No lynch is terrible. Lynching people is the only way to reliably reduce number of worlds. I'm going to share what I thought was breaking the game, then point out the flaw, because I think this will help people's analysis.
I think an extra day without a lynch would make the actual lynch collapse more waveforms, as more people will have interacted with the lynchee.
Actually, that brings up another possible way: We all decide on someone to lynch tomorrow, and everyone cops them tonight. We can then eliminate some people from being cop, strengthening the cop power of the remaining persons. And who knows, if everyone gets town, it might eliminate all the mafia waveforms from that person. We could still round-robin, partial round-robin, or pair up the nk's as well.
I don't think you guys understand that we're only playing 1 out of the ~100,000 possible games.
Not true, Seppel. atlseal generated a random subset (but still huge) of all possible games, and we're playing all of them. Our action affect which ones can exist and which ones can't, and eventually we'll only be playing with a single state (or at least very few)
atlseal said it in the signups, but it also has to be true based on the fact that we started with odds other than 1/12 for each role
Atlseal said: "However, you don't start playing just one game, you are playing in a number of games at once. Only one of which is the true game, but due to quantum uncertainty, nobody can be sure of exactly which one that is yet, not even me."
I think an extra day without a lynch would make the actual lynch collapse more waveforms, as more people will have interacted with the lynchee.
Actually, that brings up another possible way: We all decide on someone to lynch tomorrow, and everyone cops them tonight. We can then eliminate some people from being cop, strengthening the cop power of the remaining persons. And who knows, if everyone gets town, it might eliminate all the mafia waveforms from that person. We could still round-robin, partial round-robin, or pair up the nk's as well.
I like this idea as well. Should we lynch someone with a 0 death percentage, as that would affect most worlds and most percentage scum?
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
I like lynching wheat since he's apparently the only person who's scum % went up.
Unvote, vote Wheat
I'm up for actually lynching someone that shot either you or me because that should make them more likely scum in the long run if we were to die from Nightkills.
Your town percentages either stayed the same, or went up, correct? You and I have become leverage points around which the game can be swiveled. At least that's how I picture it.
Also, as someone pointed out, we're likely townbuddies now given that we tried to kill each other. We can't be Mafia together now at all. Right?
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Atlseal said: "However, you don't start playing just one game, you are playing in a number of games at once. Only one of which is the true game, but due to quantum uncertainty, nobody can be sure of exactly which one that is yet, not even me."
Seppel, I think you've bolded entirely the wrong bit there:
"Only one of which is the true game, but due to quantum uncertainty, nobody can be sure of exactly which one that is yet, not even me."
The idea of quantum uncertainty is that unless something is observed or interacted with, it exists in all states with a certain possibility distribution. Every time observation/interaction happens, the probability 'waveform' collapses with odds equal to it's distribution, and the 'true' form is then what is observed. As such, the 'true' game is the one we end up forming based on what we do.
I like lynching wheat since he's apparently the only person who's scum % went up.
Unvote, vote Wheat
Any of us on very low kill % will have had our scum percent go up. We weren't targeted, so we remained potential beta in a lot of worlds (unless anybody copped us and got town... then it's a bit screwy).
Also, I got a scum result on Wheat. Unfortunately this is throwing Wheat under the bus a bit, but unless anybody else got a scum hit, I think trying to get me a higher cop percentage (not sure how to do this yet... I think 50% of people NKing me will help, making me much less beta) is the way to go.
I'm up for actually lynching someone that shot either you or me because that should make them more likely scum in the long run if we were to die from Nightkills.
Your town percentages either stayed the same, or went up, correct? You and I have become leverage points around which the game can be swiveled. At least that's how I picture it.
I agree with the strategy, but you guys can't die from night kills until you're not scum in any worlds. The best way to attempt this I think is have a bunch of us cop one of you, hope for a lot of town results, and maybe lynch anybody who gets a scum result and hope we don't get unlucky enough to flip cop?
Urgh... confused...
I don't think you guys understand that we're only playing 1 out of the ~100,000 possible games.
Yes but what that game is will be determined partially by chance; when we lynch someone, there's a certain probability they will fall as one alignment or the other. However, it's impossible to know what.
I like lynching wheat since he's apparently the only person who's scum % went up.
Unvote, vote Wheat
I'm willing to take a fall from either the lynch or NK. But I'm certainly not the only person who's scum percentage went up. I'm just the most vocal about it.
This is addressed to everybody: I don't want there to be any confusion about the mechanics of this game. So, if anything is unclear to you, either read the page linked in the first post or ask me either here or by PM.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
I must admit that I haven't been posting as much as I should, but here goes....
My scum percentage went up as well, and I am willing to go through Seppel's method in order to "break" the game.
Except if we kill someone's Alpha % to 0 before finding the pair. It doesn't break the game.
@chickenfish : Why are you assuming that if a cop gets a guilty on someone they are more likely to be scum? A cop getting a guilty on someone seems like a very hard chance, my 8% of worlds where i am the cop also has to overlap the ??% of worlds where Seppel is a Scum. You don't receive results from worlds where you are not the cop. My cop % dropping to 6% could mean lots of things, but i don't think it means anything other than some of my cop probablities died.
I've already shot WG, so even if I agreed to a 'town wins plan' (which I've already pointed out the flaw in), I couldn't do this.
I was talking about who should shot who tonight.
Nobody has a 'shot percent'. These numbers will change every day and night. In fact, there is a good chance a bunch of people will be 'healed' tonight (decrease in death%), seeing as worlds in which they're dead may be eliminated.
Furthermore, Seppel shooting Zombie on 0% will almost definitely give Zombie a different death% tomorrow than if he were to shoot me, also on 0%. It all depends on how many worlds in which we're Seppel's beta, and how many worlds in which Seppel is alpha are affected by various people's cop results.
Question:
If we have people forced to shot at someone does that in fact not decrease the chances of people being beta or alpha. Does it also show the person that is alpha precentage as higher the next day?
Question to those that were shot last night:Did your beta % go up or down during the night?
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mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
If someone is shot, that means there's a lowered chance for them to be that person's beta scum partner, meaning their percentage would go down. That translates to more worlds on average where people who weren't shot are still beta scum, meaning the percentage of people who weren't shot would go up.
Unsure what would cause alpha scum to increase/decrease. Need more data.
Unsure what would cause cop to increase/decrease. Previous hypothesis invalid.
-That's why everyone needs to remember: if your alpha+beta% is 25 or more, you are above average scum, so start acting like it.
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Attempting to break the game by guessing the "world" is futile. There is no actual "base" world. It simply changes based on actions.
Kill percentage is not at a base of 6%. This is known due to the fact that Artifice's average "death percentage" is 9% and Seppel's 9.75% per person.
A) Unlikely that the game is that easily breakable, so I'm up to hear it. Given that deaths will turn up as a semirandom alignment, it is unlikely that it is breakable like that.
B) Don't care. I already know pretty much everything I need.
C) See B.
Possible list of items that could affect percentages:
Probable that Seppel's mafia percentage went down. Also probable that Seppel's cop percentage went down. This is also true of Artifice.
Assuming this is correct, I can get a general graph of the change in anyone's percentages.
If you copped someone and received town, your cop percentage would most likely increase. Mafia percentages for whoever you targeted would probably decrease, as would cop percentages.
Did anyone have a change in their Vanilla Town percentage?
Not true.
My Vanilla precentage went up. My alpha went down and I received town results but my cop % went down 1%
My beta went from 8 to 9 however.
a) I believe I'm town and I don't see how it can be broken today but considering my analysts thus far I can see scum being caught and game over by day 3 pretty easily.
I think I can see what chicken is thinking so I don't see anyone that hasn't thought about it thus far either.
b) Sure why not
c) sure why not.
I made notes on those claimed thus far:
targets
KCC - Seppel
pinky - Seppel
Seppel - Art
Tan: Art
LN: Art
Art - Seppel
Chicken - WG
WG - KCC
NeedMore - Art
Audio - seppel
Arcadic - Art
I'm missing one person (not sure who yet because I'm doing 3 things at the same time, weeeeeeee multi-task powers).
I did the math odds for Seppel and Art. Seppel should have one more person shooting at him if everyone was at or around 6%, but that is not the case. Art would have 6 people. Depending on who I'm missing and who they claim will lead me more on who to lynch today and no I don't think no lynching is good but I do think targeting different people from each person is a good idea.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
The only thing I might amend is that the two who would shoot Seppel and Art might shoot someone else, to let it go on longer.
Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
Before the day ends, though, we should claim opening percentages, all actions, and new percentages, however.
@Pinky: Huh, despite doing similarly, my cop and beta increased while my vanilla decreased.
My mafia average went down 1% and my townness went up from 85% to 88%.
I'm good with breaking this game. I realized the unknown shot is from Zombie.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Is that a combination of VT and cop or just VT? Because if it's VT, I'd suspect you're the towniest of us all.
Yeah, my percentages did the same thing as Wheat.
I am all for a nolynch here if it will help bring things more into focus. Though I am wondering if instead of shooting the person below us on the player list, pair up and that pair shoots each other, easiest pairup is use the playerlist and 1 and 2 shoot each other, 3 and 4 shoot each other etc etc. That way it also eliminates Alpha/beta pairs. I propose this because as of now, neither Seppel nor Artifice can be a pair with each other, as they both shot each other N0. Eliminating more pairs would be more useful than just shooting the person below us on the list.
One concern I am having though is with KCC. Why is she so insistent on Scum acting like scum?
Almost wondering if this is scum trying to fish out her buddy, but for now it is not much to go on. Just something to note.
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Sorry math was bad. It was a combo together of 85%, still the likelyhood of town in my case increase and scum decreased.
The only thing I'm confused about is if my result on Seppel was town and Seppel has a chance of being town I would think my chance of being cop would increase but it did not, it decreased instead.
I'm just waiting on Zombie to tell us whom he targetted with his shot and I will be crunching some numbers.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Did anyone happen to cop pinkys?
Should be obvious by now who he shot, but I'll let Zombie do his claim.
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Duh.
Since the precentage is a bit higher for Seppel with less people I assume the alpha is someone that shot Seppel?
Of course someone who is Alpha could lie about whom they targetted......thinking.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
That would make sense if Arti's Town game wasn't heroically stronger then his Mafia Game.
Grudge?
Lynching someone not due to Scummyness sense like a Bad idea.
It's the same as lynching a Random person Yes?
What.
I don't understand.
But Sepel's Mafia game is heroically stronger then his Town game?
Why should anyone claim this?
No to everything until I understand more.
I am Stupid and don't understand.
Also I'm pretty sure that the Last time you thought you broke the game all the Town castrated themselves
Also I'm pretty sure that the Last time you thought you broke the game all the Town castrated themselves
I'm not sure I am going to do this.
I'm thinking that no lynch is probably the best thing and doing targets for each person to target will narrow down the beta chances and alpha chances.
My proposal is thus:
I think the people that shot at seppel should shot at one another:
KCC - shots pinky
Pinky - shots KCC
Artifice - shots Audio
Audio - shots Artifice
The art group should go as thus:
Needmore shots Tan
Tan shots NeedMore
LN shots Arcadic
Arcadic shots LN
Then we have left is :
Seppel shots Zombie
Zombie shots Seppel
WG shots Chicken
Chicken shots WG
This will still give us information. IE: Seppel shots at Zombie who has 0% right now we will know Seppel shot precent is. Art shots Audio and he is at 0% we will know his shot precent.
We keep note of what the precentage is before day 1 ends and math should tell us who shots at what precentage tomorrow.
Thoughts, questions, comments?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
I'm good either way, but I agree that might be better. Perhaps we could pair up for NK's, round-robin for copping?
Are you proposing she's scummy, when not even she knows?
That makes sense because it mirrors mine rather closely.
It probably changed because of the actions of others.
Has he even showed up yet? I can't remember seeing him.
I think we need to just massclaim and then decide the night-actions already.
Sorry Zombie, didn't see you posting lol.
Arcadic (1): Artifice 101
No Lynch (2): Seppel, Wheat_Grinder
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
I am for sure against massclaiming at this time.
Hi
Why? Surely you can't hope to figure out the scum by behavior; how would anyone know whether they were scum to even BE scummy?
They would know this due to the Claimed info in the thread already.
(Or Math?)
As has been stated before, odds are scum does not even know they are scum right now. Basically random lynching will eliminate at minimum one possible gamestate and more likely more possible gamestates. Note this was my idea before Seppel came forward with a better idea.
Again, we are planning on breaking this game. This game as of now is much like texas Justice Mafia games. In that setup where you have 2 mafia and 10 one shot vigs. The logic for breaking that game holds true here as well.
Really does not apply here ATM as again, scum does not know for sure they are scum.
More information obviously. There is no harm in claiming if your v. town percentage went up and down. Not only that, since we are breaking the game, we need to know his info in order to know how the % work.
No to everything until I understand more.
Obviously, you are a gimmick. But this time I see no MAJOR problem with Seppel's plan.
Why not? I mean as of now it is obvious who you shot, but it would be nice to have confirmation.
@Wheat_Grinder: Well i do find it odd that she would be so demanding that scum start acting like scum when they don't know for sure if they will end up scum. She seems pretty confident that 25% or more = possible scum. It almost reeks of inside info. Only reason why I am a bit cautious is it could be genuine frustration over something. It is still noteworthy though in this game given the circumstances.
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Well, there's an easy solution:
What's everybody's combined scum percentage?
Me:
Alpha: 6%
Beta: 9%
Total: 15%
I initially thought that if we all agree to NK the same person, they're only alive as scum. Then we lynch them as scum, rinse and repeat, win by night 3. However, the problem is that they still exist as town in a whole bunch of worlds, it's just they're already dead in those worlds. Thus, lynching them and having their waveform collapse means there's just a really big chance we're lynching a corpse.
Also, all this talk of 'scum don't know they're scum yet' - that's simplifying it too much. What's actually happening, is there aren't any scum yet. This is why I'm not willing to say who I copped to get a scum result. It means their only logical target tonight is me, so that in any world's that I'm cop and they're alpha, they've killed me.
I've already shot WG, so even if I agreed to a 'town wins plan' (which I've already pointed out the flaw in), I couldn't do this.
Nobody has a 'shot percent'. These numbers will change every day and night. In fact, there is a good chance a bunch of people will be 'healed' tonight (decrease in death%), seeing as worlds in which they're dead may be eliminated.
Furthermore, Seppel shooting Zombie on 0% will almost definitely give Zombie a different death% tomorrow than if he were to shoot me, also on 0%. It all depends on how many worlds in which we're Seppel's beta, and how many worlds in which Seppel is alpha are affected by various people's cop results.
Exactly. Copping at all will always reduce the number of worlds in which you're cop (town result eliminates worlds in which you were cop and your target was scum and scum result opposite effect), it's just a matter of how many worlds total are reduced by the actions of others.
The situation is different, because in that setup there were defined roles, so it was in the vigs' interest to figure out how to beat scum. It's currently in nobody's interest to do this, as yuo're setting yourself up for a reasonable chance at losing (unless it involves a deal of "let me be town and win" that enough people are willing to go along with... then you've gotten yourself 100% win).
If everyone wants their current town % to be their chance of winning (which it is if we try to contrive a "town wins" strategy), then we may as well just agree to lynch randomly from here on out.
What inside info could she have? This isn't a bastard game right? We're all aware of all the rules...
Yep. Town.
Yes. Can't fight human nature. I called it, too.
Also, yeah, pretty sure I know who ya are. DOn't care though
inb4 he says the obvious (a higher than 25 scum percentage as Alpha)
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
I think an extra day without a lynch would make the actual lynch collapse more waveforms, as more people will have interacted with the lynchee.
Actually, that brings up another possible way: We all decide on someone to lynch tomorrow, and everyone cops them tonight. We can then eliminate some people from being cop, strengthening the cop power of the remaining persons. And who knows, if everyone gets town, it might eliminate all the mafia waveforms from that person. We could still round-robin, partial round-robin, or pair up the nk's as well.
No lynching is still a terrible idea because random kills flying around do absolutely nothing good.
Attempting to revise list now...
atlseal said it in the signups, but it also has to be true based on the fact that we started with odds other than 1/12 for each role
Agreed. Lynchings have a huge effect on game states compared to early night actions.
Atlseal said: "However, you don't start playing just one game, you are playing in a number of games at once. Only one of which is the true game, but due to quantum uncertainty, nobody can be sure of exactly which one that is yet, not even me."
I like this idea as well. Should we lynch someone with a 0 death percentage, as that would affect most worlds and most percentage scum?
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
Unvote, vote Wheat
Your town percentages either stayed the same, or went up, correct? You and I have become leverage points around which the game can be swiveled. At least that's how I picture it.
Also, as someone pointed out, we're likely townbuddies now given that we tried to kill each other. We can't be Mafia together now at all. Right?
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Mafia Results, Links, and Stats
"Only one of which is the true game, but due to quantum uncertainty, nobody can be sure of exactly which one that is yet, not even me."
The idea of quantum uncertainty is that unless something is observed or interacted with, it exists in all states with a certain possibility distribution. Every time observation/interaction happens, the probability 'waveform' collapses with odds equal to it's distribution, and the 'true' form is then what is observed. As such, the 'true' game is the one we end up forming based on what we do.
Any of us on very low kill % will have had our scum percent go up. We weren't targeted, so we remained potential beta in a lot of worlds (unless anybody copped us and got town... then it's a bit screwy).
Also, I got a scum result on Wheat. Unfortunately this is throwing Wheat under the bus a bit, but unless anybody else got a scum hit, I think trying to get me a higher cop percentage (not sure how to do this yet... I think 50% of people NKing me will help, making me much less beta) is the way to go.
I agree with the strategy, but you guys can't die from night kills until you're not scum in any worlds. The best way to attempt this I think is have a bunch of us cop one of you, hope for a lot of town results, and maybe lynch anybody who gets a scum result and hope we don't get unlucky enough to flip cop?
Urgh... confused...
My scum percentage went up as well, and I am willing to go through Seppel's method in order to "break" the game.
My Mafia Stats - My Helpdesk
G Omnath, Locus of Mana U Arcum Dagsson BUG The Mimeoplasm GW Gaddock Teeg X Karn, Silver Golem
Yes but what that game is will be determined partially by chance; when we lynch someone, there's a certain probability they will fall as one alignment or the other. However, it's impossible to know what.
I'm willing to take a fall from either the lynch or NK. But I'm certainly not the only person who's scum percentage went up. I'm just the most vocal about it.
Except if we kill someone's Alpha % to 0 before finding the pair. It doesn't break the game.
@chickenfish : Why are you assuming that if a cop gets a guilty on someone they are more likely to be scum? A cop getting a guilty on someone seems like a very hard chance, my 8% of worlds where i am the cop also has to overlap the ??% of worlds where Seppel is a Scum. You don't receive results from worlds where you are not the cop. My cop % dropping to 6% could mean lots of things, but i don't think it means anything other than some of my cop probablities died.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
There's no way to analyze behavior yet.
I was talking about who should shot who tonight.
Question:
If we have people forced to shot at someone does that in fact not decrease the chances of people being beta or alpha. Does it also show the person that is alpha precentage as higher the next day?
Question to those that were shot last night:Did your beta % go up or down during the night?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Down.
Unsure what would cause alpha scum to increase/decrease. Need more data.
Unsure what would cause cop to increase/decrease. Previous hypothesis invalid.
I'll vote myself once stuff is claimed.
It went up.