I didn't think the set up was very good. It turned out alright, but it could have gone wrong.
I agree that a roleblocker would have been much more useful for the scum as opposed to the godfather which didn't do much at all to help us. The double voter wasn't very helpful to the town either but only because it's a hard role to play correctly.
Media is not making me steal. But in a way is like the story of the very hot girl with the short skirt teasing the old sick guy with a history of rape.
I honestly agreed with this post very much, but it was also one that made my eye fall on you Zion.
Yoda: Why no cop claim from you D3?
You know seph is innocent, you know he's at L-1. Obviously you hadn't investigated a scum yet but I could have told you that whether we lynched seph or not, you were gonna get the NK.
I can't get it out of my head. How could Seph have been town? I mean, I was starting to get that sinking mislynch feeling towards the end, especially as he began to offer little to no defense, but it was still a considerable shock considering how scummy his play had been through D2.
Let's review.
D1: Lamp and I aggro, he eventually gets lynched, Eco gets NKed, straightfoward day largely dominated by the town-on-town battle.
D2: I hunt down kman and Seph, leave some suspicion on Yoda who's absent for most of the day. Chris is revealed to be a double voter. Some people cast suspicion on him, kman eventually concludes that he is town, MetalPipe is generally astute all day long and agrees with the push on kman, Ahasver agrees but doesn't vote and is replaced by Zionite, Frenger plays a lot like MetalPipe, WWAB generally mimics me, Alpha Werewolf tries to get involved but by and large lurks. Kman gets lynched as godfather, I get NK'ed.
INTERLUDE: WHY did I get NKed here with a confirmed double voter still alive? There are several possibilities.
Option #1: Seph and Yoda are scum, as I believed, and they essentially sacrifice Seph in order to prevent me from successfully uncovering scum #3.
Option #2: Seph and someone else, possibly Yoda, are scum and they NK me in order to start some WIFOM about Chris. Why is the double voter still alive and the vanilla townie got killed? He must be scum, etc.
Option #3: Seph is not scum, and they NK me in order to make it look like option #1, thus setting up a mislynch on Seph and bringing us into two rounds of lylo.
D3: Of course, suspicion immediately falls on Seph. Zionite, MetalPipe, and WWAB all jump on him. Chris notably refuses to get involved - he now hasn't used his double vote since early D2 when he used it on kman to prove it was real. Seph tries to explain he just got a terrible read and authentically thought I was scum, but they aren't buying it. Yoda pipes up and says that he thinks Seph is town although he doesn't really provide reasoning. Kman did this too, and I interpreted it as him trying feebly to clear his scumbuddy, which appears (to me) to be the case once more. Seph appears to be resigned to death, claims vanilla townie. Frenger votes to bring him to L-1. Alpha Werewolf ultimately applies the hammer. Seph is lynched as vanilla town.
WHAT does it all mean? All of the people who voted Seph basically barned my arguments against him. They didn't even really provide facts and analysis the way I did. They just jump on him. CHRIS and YODA did not vote for Seph, who incidentally did not even try to vote or FoS anyone else (he should have, if he had a read on anyone but me, that is)
SETUP SPECULATION: This is a noob game. Why would there ever be a godfather in a noob game if there wasn't a cop opposite him? Doc/Double Voter/Cop/Vanilla v. Godfather/Goons doesn't seem too unbalanced, and neither does another possibility mentioned below. So who's the cop?
COP SPECULATION: It's got to be YODA. He stated he felt I was scum and Seph was town although he now (obv) knows it was a town-on-town battle. He doesn't really go into detail, though. Knowing the doc was dead from D1 may have provided a reason for Yoda to lurk until he got a guilty, which he obviously HAS NOT. He also didn't investigate ME, or he wouldn't have stated on D3 that he felt I was scum on D2 going after Seph. MOST LIKELY he investigated kman during N1 following the suspicion on
him towards the end of D1 and got a town result off him (as he is a godfather), which explains his reluctance to go after the obviously scummy kman. THEN on N2 he investigated Seph (with good reason) which explains both his failure to vote for him and his nebulous statement that he is town.
NOW FOR THE BIG QUESTION: WHO gets NK'ed tonight? For my money, if I'm scum I NK Yoda here. Even if I don't know he's the cop, it sets up the game-winning WIFOM on Chris. CERTAINLY I don't NK Chris (provided he is town) because the town will take care of him. If Yoda goes tonight, the town will most likely lose. A NK on Yoda will mean the scum have performed the same analysis I have, since he has hardly been a vocal townie (most vocal surviving townie would probably go to MetalPipe at this point.) If Chris is town and he goes, then Yoda needs to get a hit on his investigation. My target would be Zionite, who seems to have seized the moment after replacing into a very low-key Ahasver (has ANYONE voted Ahasver all game long?) and launched a no-holds-barred attack on Seph, who proved to be town. I can't see it being anyone but Yoda or Chris - MAYBE a random vanilla if Chris is scum and they don't know Yoda is the cop. Speaking of...
SO WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CHRIS?: He's stated on numerous occasions he's afraid to use his double vote. I called for him to use it on the obviously scummy kman and he failed to do so, and he also failed to vote Seph. He lurked through D1 before an early (and non-pressured) reveal on D2, which prompted speculation that a) he is scum or b) he will be NK'ed immediately. He wasn't NK'ed D2 (see option #2 above) and failed to contribute on D3. So here are two options for him:
Option #1: He is scum. I'm having trouble believing that scum has a godfather AND a double voter, but it could happen especially if there isn't really a cop and the godfather is just a gimmick to make scum think there is one. SPEAKING OF, what was kman referring to when he said he'd seen a line that would let his scumbuddies know who the cop was? Does this warrant a re-read on Yoda? If he was referring to me, there certainly wasn't one. Getting back on topic, as scum he double voted kman early D2 to gain some town cred (when kman was in no real danger of being lynched) but failed to act when the game was clearly up. Then on D3 he refrained from voting Seph, probably as an alibi for when he inevitably survives night 3 and has to face the town on D4 and answer for why once again he wasn't NKed ("Well, Seph was town and I didn't vote him...)
Option #2: He is just noob town. He acted noobish on D1, although (tinfoil hats on) he could've been faking it, he legitimately thought he was in danger early D2 and revealed in order to "drop threat", didn't hammer kman because he was afraid to be wrong, and didn't vote Seph because he harbored doubts about his scumminess.
I think my opinion should be clear as to which scenario I think is real, but at this point...
WHO IS WHO?
Town - Yodavader (Cop), Alpha Werewolf (Vanilla), MetalPipe (Mason), Frenger (Mason), Wolf with a Bass (Vanilla)
Scum - Zionite (Goon), ChrisXIV (Double Voter)
If scum have two power roles - and I do think Chris is scum - then town have got to have some sort of compensation, and that could be Masons. That would explain MetalPipe and Frenger's relative similarity in play so far in this game (they haven't claimed it yet because, let's face it, they haven't come under any real pressure) WWAB is the only one who's really suspicious out of the townies; his sustained barning of myself always struck me as a little fishy, and he COULD'VE been scum attaching himself to a strong-willed town player who was going after townies (Lamp/Seph).
Zionite replaced into Ahasver and came out swinging. This isn't necessarily scummy, of course, but he appeared to view himself as the heir to my crusade against Seph
and never stopped to ponder the consequences. Most likely he knew he could get the mislynch without even appearing too scummy and he went for it. Let's not forget his (Ahasver's) notable failure to act after I called him to vote on kman (who, let's face it, was obviously scum) - not to mention the way he agreed on D2 with my case against Seph, but not on kman.
(There is, of course, another possibility where Chris really is town, and someone like WWAB is the other goon, giving us a Cop/Doc/Double Voter/Vanilla v. Godfather/Goons. Fairly standard setup (much more standard than the more convoluted one I have above) and quite possible for a noob game. But I just have this read on Chris...)
Mafia notes - Noob 24 - Day 4
Well, into the breach - two rounds of lylo. Prediction came true, Yoda was the cop and got NK'ed. Scum must surely have been able to figure out it was him from his "gut feeling" aka cop giveaway. We're down to 6 players, which means it's time for a player-by-player analysis, in order of scumminess:
METALPIPE: Surely town for me. He's been astute for so long, although he has shown he has a bit of a wilder side (see his Twilight Zone speculation about me and Lamp being scumbuddies as well as his random D2 mod-gaming.)
FRENGER: I had MetalPipe, Frenger and Ahasver instantly pegged for town, although I may well have been wrong about Ahasver. Frenger seems to be another competent and together player, so much like MetalPipe that I speculate above they could even be masons.
ALPHA: Here's where the waters begin to muddy. Alpha has mostly lurked, although when he has posted he has always shown town characteristics. His failed pbpa on me early D2 further confirmed him as town to me, and I believe his reasoning for hammering Seph - I surely would've done it myself if I'd been him.
WWAB: He mimicked me while I was alive and continued against Seph after I died. I definitely need to re-read him.
ZIONITE: As I stated above, Zionite is practically confirmed scum for me.
CHRIS: See "Chris speculation" below.
MORE SETUP SPECULATION: Do we really believe that scum are getting two power roles in a noob game? Not without a significant balancer on the town side, like masons or a vig. I thought MetalPipe and Frenger might be masons while I was speculating during N3, but considering this is now lylo, if they were, they'd claim immediately in order to narrow down the town's choices of scum. There could be a hesitant vig bouncing around, but I just don't see it. Which leaves us with Cop/Doc/Double Voter/Vanilla vs. Godfather/Goons which as I said above is a much more plausible and standard setup.
CHRIS BEHAVIOR: I still stand by my statement about Chris's scumminess. He has played terribly all game long and the real scum have capitalized on this behavior. Let's take a look. On D1, he did nothing but lurk. Many players noticed and commented on this, some painting it as scummy, some accepting his "playing the noob card" argument. D2 saw him come under pressure, originally by kman, until he revealed his double-voting power by double voting kman, although he unvoted once the mod confirmed the votes. This didn't see him immediately confirmed as town, as some (myself included) questioned the truly awful timing of his revelation, as well as his motivation for doing so, and declared him "dead man walking." He failed to hammer the obviously scummy kman despite being called to do so. On D3, he failed to attack Seph in contravention of the general consensus to do so. He says he considers MetalPipe to be his top suspect, which I think is baseless, but isn't surprising for a self-professed noob. Now he's tried some mountebank strategy to prove he isn't scum by having everyone vote MetalPipe once, showing that he won't use his double vote to hammer presumably town MetalPipe.
CHRIS SPECULATION: This is surely the big question of the rest of this game: is Chris town or scum? And I have to say that, provided no hidden surprises, Chris must be TOWN. He's noob town, as has been exhaustively discussed, and has been left alive this long in order to provoke the exact same kind of WIFOM I've spent paragraphs of notes on. That leaves us with a playing field of:
MetalPipe Alpha Chris WWAB Frenger Zionite
<===TOWN=========================================================SCUM===>
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: An attack on Alpha, asking why he was so quick to hammer Seph. I perceive this as scapegoating, as I think Alpha is town and he quite rightly points out that some of the very people accusing him (chief offender: ZIONITE) wanted to know on D3 why he was so slow to vote for Seph. A "post your scumlist" move by MetalPipe, which sees him show up on Alpha's list, but also sees Zionite and Frenger finally get a mention. A fascinating point about Frenger: what has he actually DONE this game? He didn't commit on D1 until Lamp had already suicided, he didn't commit on D2 (despite me pointedly and directly calling him to) until kman had confessed, and he jumped the Seph wagon without really providing content on D3. Doesn't look good for him. He's now overtaken WWAB on my scumlist.
TOWN PROGNOSIS: Unless the town finally put to bed the question of Chris, and unless he finally uses his double voting power, I can't see the town coming out on top here.
Shockingly terrible play from Yoda (WHERE was the claim?), Seph, and Chris. WWAB also flailed at the end, which cost town badly.
This post from Zionite is the scummiest moment of the game, hands down.
Quote from Zionite »
This is why Yodavader died. The mafia picked up on the simple fact that Yoda did not use any evidence whatsoever and totally relied on his role. That wasn't hard to see. I attempted to coach Yoda into providing 'something' so i could back off of Owa considering I was pretty sure Yoda was the cop, but didn't want to draw attention to it. But the damage is already done.
Terrible play of Owa, which i mistook for scum play before. Turns out I forgot to be lenient with newb games.
I'm fairly sure i don't need a re-read. This game is still fresh in my mind.
Also, let us all remember who hammered. Alpha hammered while progress WAS being made in my opinion. I think given a few more posts the wagon on Owa would have dissolved due to Yoda's "gut feeling". I, looking for a way to unvote without alerting the mafia, was pretty pissed the day ended there.
I was nearly choking on my Coke reading this. He knew Seph was the cop, facepalmed to try to "signal" Yoda to claim cop, but failed to unvote anyway, then tried to claim he was trying to "unvote without alerting the mafia." Are you kidding? Any townie would've immediately unvoted Seph, outed Yoda, forced him to confirm Seph, and then go on scumhunting in the hopes of avoiding a mislynch and lylo. I could not believe this went without comment.
It was an exciting game though and I learned a lot.
Unfortunately, I was at a lose at the start of day 4. Even more unfortunate was the fact that I got lynched while I was actually asleep as I had expected Metal then Alpha to vote for me and Chris not at all....Oh well, expectations are annoying. Had the two of them voted for me I could have banked on Frenger's lack of participation to keep me out of lynch territory for a bit longer. I really wish I had caught onto Zion's play earlier because Ashaver was scum in my eyes for most of day 1.
Totally honestly, I am surprised I wasn't lynched day 4. I made a lot of slip ups along the way and if i HAD been scum, and known who everyone was, I would have made a great number of the same plays. especially everything I did on day 3.
I was reading along with this game for much of it. I started when early on I read a post by MetalPipe and immediately thought "He is so scum." In fact, by the end I was totally convinced he and Zionite were scum together. Frenger surprised me, but Zionite was screamingly obvious. His baloney about Seph/Yoda on day 3, his encouragement to vote ASAP day 4, hounding people for being suspicious but not voting, etc.
Zionite, would you have played differently if this hadn't been a newb game?
I'm afraid I don't have many of them. That is to say, I don't have any of the PM's for people who were already dead at the time I took over, and several players just sent me essentially their name and role without actually forwarding the PM.
From what I saw, though, the role PM's were pretty consistently in the form "You are X. You are a vanilla townie. You win when the scum are dead."
Poor Sephiroth Owa was apparently not given a role name, just the role "vanilla townie." I don't know if this was intentional on Niv's part or simply an oversight, but the only reason that Seph was revealed as "The Cellist" was because I retroactively decreed that to be his role name.
Poor Sephiroth Owa was apparently not given a role name, just the role "vanilla townie." I don't know if this was intentional on Niv's part or simply an oversight, but the only reason that Seph was revealed as "The Cellist" was because I retroactively decreed that to be his role name.
You are mad with power, sir!
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Poor Sephiroth Owa was apparently not given a role name, just the role "vanilla townie." I don't know if this was intentional on Niv's part or simply an oversight, but the only reason that Seph was revealed as "The Cellist" was because I retroactively decreed that to be his role name.
Wow, that is a pretty large oversight. Poor sephiroth.
I guess the PMs were pretty generic...
I agree that a roleblocker would have been much more useful for the scum as opposed to the godfather which didn't do much at all to help us. The double voter wasn't very helpful to the town either but only because it's a hard role to play correctly.
I honestly agreed with this post very much, but it was also one that made my eye fall on you Zion.
Yoda: Why no cop claim from you D3?
You know seph is innocent, you know he's at L-1. Obviously you hadn't investigated a scum yet but I could have told you that whether we lynched seph or not, you were gonna get the NK.
Shockingly terrible play from Yoda (WHERE was the claim?), Seph, and Chris. WWAB also flailed at the end, which cost town badly.
This post from Zionite is the scummiest moment of the game, hands down.
I was nearly choking on my Coke reading this. He knew Seph was the cop, facepalmed to try to "signal" Yoda to claim cop, but failed to unvote anyway, then tried to claim he was trying to "unvote without alerting the mafia." Are you kidding? Any townie would've immediately unvoted Seph, outed Yoda, forced him to confirm Seph, and then go on scumhunting in the hopes of avoiding a mislynch and lylo. I could not believe this went without comment.
It was an exciting game though and I learned a lot.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Wins/Losses/Draws
13/2/1
Zionite, would you have played differently if this hadn't been a newb game?
I'm afraid I don't have many of them. That is to say, I don't have any of the PM's for people who were already dead at the time I took over, and several players just sent me essentially their name and role without actually forwarding the PM.
From what I saw, though, the role PM's were pretty consistently in the form "You are X. You are a vanilla townie. You win when the scum are dead."
Poor Sephiroth Owa was apparently not given a role name, just the role "vanilla townie." I don't know if this was intentional on Niv's part or simply an oversight, but the only reason that Seph was revealed as "The Cellist" was because I retroactively decreed that to be his role name.
But one way or the other we all owe arimnaes thanks for taking over the game.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
You are mad with power, sir!
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Wow, that is a pretty large oversight. Poor sephiroth.
I guess the PMs were pretty generic...
Also, thanks to Arim for taking over.