Man, I really don't get why (if we assume atlseal is scum) Altseal would take the Spoon, and then lie and say he didn't take it. That just makes no sense. I mean, why not admit he took it? What would he be hoping to gain there?
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. BUt then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Man, I really don't get why (if we assume atlseal is scum) Altseal would take the Spoon, and then lie and say he didn't take it. That just makes no sense. I mean, why not admit he took it? What would he be hoping to gain there?
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. BUt then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
Oh, it's safe for me to go ahead and reveal this now.... I targeted ATL today and got no PM saying my ability failed. So far, I've used my day ability 3 times, all 3 on ATL. One of them I got back a "you could not find him" PM (the day he vanished). The other two times I got a "confirmed" PM.
So if you want to know why he'd lie, it would be because if he said "I took it" and then I posted "dude, I just targeted you successfully" it would have gotten him insto lynched.
Man, I really don't get why (if we assume atlseal is scum) Altseal would take the Spoon, and then lie and say he didn't take it. That just makes no sense. I mean, why not admit he took it? What would he be hoping to gain there?
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. BUt then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
I know, it doesn't make any sense to me either. That's part of the reason why I was so apprehensive with my vote after atl posted - I thought I already knew the answer to the question. I figured atl would say "oh, yeah, I did, sorry", and while that might look bad, it probably doesn't look as bad as it does right now.
As for your question, Ax, I have to succeed twice. Night 1, I targetted you, and you took it. Night 2, I was blocked, and so I kept the spoon. Night 3, I gave the spoon to atl, he apparently took it, and I'm now out.
As a side note, there is evidence in the first PM Az sent me (the confirmation PM) that atl is probably some creature, and perhaps is the Cheshire Cat. Of course, that doesn't clear him, but this is another reason why I wasn't positive atl was scum. Additionally, Az's last PM has some flavor which I won't quote for fear of modkill which makes me feel something's not quite right; it's a reference to Dwight, actually. This is why I have a feeling that there's some bastard mod ploy afoot, but I can't quite place what it is.
Oh, it's safe for me to go ahead and reveal this now.... I targeted ATL today and got no PM saying my ability failed. So far, I've used my day ability 3 times, all 3 on ATL. One of them I got back a "you could not find him" PM (the day he vanished). The other two times I got a "confirmed" PM.
So if you want to know why he'd lie, it would be because if he said "I took it" and then I posted "dude, I just targeted you successfully" it would have gotten him insto lynched.
I don't follow this. What are you saying here? We already established that the Spoon does not stop you from getting targeted.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
There's evidence from atl's disappearance scene that he really is the Cheshire Cat (or else Az is playing with us), but that probably doesn't prove anything.
Man, I really don't get why (if we assume atlseal is scum) Altseal would take the Spoon, and then lie and say he didn't take it. That just makes no sense. I mean, why not admit he took it? What would he be hoping to gain there?
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. BUt then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense laywer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to eloborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
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Well, apart from everything else, I don't think atl has to make much of a case to demonstrate Xyre as scummy. I'm almost inclined to think that he's more likely to be scum with atl than against him, and that this is some distancing act gone wrong.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I think Xyre is/was just legitimately confused. His actions don't really make sense from a scum perspective. Or a town perspective. Or..any perspective.
I don't follow this. What are you saying here? We already established that the Spoon does not stop you from getting targeted.
1) Only if we believe you are a townie.
2) Only if we believe something else about your role has not affected it
3) Only if we believe whomever claimed to target you (wasn't it our watcher?)
4) Only if the timing worked the way you thought (didn't you take the spoon the same night you were targeted?)
and finally...
5) Did ATL know that and was he willing to risk it?
Hey, in my defense, the flavor of the PMs Az has sent me have the flavor of a mod trying to screw with my head. I have enough of a reason to be paranoid from that alone.
4) Only if the timing worked the way you thought (didn't you take the spoon the same night you were targeted?)
Nope, he received the spoon on Night 1 and was targeted on Night 2. But you could of course try and confirm it with your "day ability".
Here's the thing. There shouldn't be any reason for atlseal to lie about taking the spoon EVEN if he is scum. The +2 to lynch thing, if what Xyre claimed is true, is still a benefit of sorts, albeit not a very useful one.
Well, if that part is true and atlseal takes the spoon as scum, it becomes ridiculously easy to test his truthfulness. So..I can see him lying there as scum, and just hoping to never get targeted by a townsperson(it's a longshot for him, but what can you do).
Nope, he received the spoon on Night 1 and was targeted on Night 2. But you could of course try and confirm it with your "day ability".
Here's the thing. There shouldn't be any reason for atlseal to lie about taking the spoon EVEN if he is scum. The +2 to lynch thing, if what Xyre claimed is true, is still a benefit of sorts, albeit not a very useful one.
I actually wish I'd thought of that today. But I screwed up.
I don't want to say I will test it tomorrow, for obvious reasons. But if I do test it, I'll let people know the results.
1) Only if we believe you are a townie.
2) Only if we believe something else about your role has not affected it
3) Only if we believe whomever claimed to target you (wasn't it our watcher?)
4) Only if the timing worked the way you thought (didn't you take the spoon the same night you were targeted?)
and finally...
5) Did ATL know that and was he willing to risk it?
Hmm. Okay, this is what I'm thinking. If atl is innocent, then Xyre is clearly scum. I don't think this especially likely, though. If Xyre is scum, then I don't know what that says about Axel, but it definitely looks wierd. If atl is scum, then I'm at a loss about Xyre, but I'm inclined to think that Axel is probably not town. Likely neutral, since I have a hard time imagining both atl and Axel on the same scum team. Especially if Xyre turns up innocent in this case, I don't see any reasonable way to conclude that Axel is town.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Hmm. Okay, this is what I'm thinking. If atl is innocent, then Xyre is clearly scum. I don't think this especially likely, though. If Xyre is scum, then I don't know what that says about Axel, but it definitely looks wierd. If atl is scum, then I'm at a loss about Xyre, but I'm inclined to think that Axel is probably not town. Likely neutral, since I have a hard time imagining both atl and Axel on the same scum team. Especially if Xyre turns up innocent in this case, I don't see any reasonable way to conclude that Axel is town.
That makes sense, right?
Not a word of it. Sorry.
I suppose another possibility I'm not really considering is that atlseal just fell on his face and wasn't thinking at all when he said he refused it. People do make completely stupid moves, occasionally....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
That makes no sense whatsoever. When you factor in that Axel created a case against Loran and it came out of nowhere, and Loran was obviously scum, what you're saying makes even less sense. Like I said before, Xyre's actions make no real sense from any perspective. But it seems far more likely that he gave into insecurity as town(hence his unvote and quick revote) than that he did so as scum. I mean, a scum that goes out of his way to fake a result on someone, then gives it up as soon as they disagree(what else was Atlseal going to do..right?), that's just stupid. And not just a little stupid, completely and utterly so.
Actually, this 'vote cover' makes perfect sense with atlseal being the prime candidate of suspicion. Otherwise, if we could see the vote tally, as soon as atlseal got to 11 votes and wasn't lynched, we would immediately known something was up.
I am certainly not saying that Axel is mafia under any circumstances. That would be incredibly unlikely. But I'm operating under the assumption that Xyre does have some clue about how his role works, which suggests that if he is town, then Axel being targetable implies that he is not town.
Yes, Xyre has been incredibly scummy and obscure about his role, and has backtracked a lot, which is why I don't make any assumptions about Axel if Xyre is scum, but I think I have to assume that if Xyre is town, then there's more truth to his original claims than we've been giving them credit for, which strongly implies neutrality for Axel.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
If we listen to Xyre's own posts, he flatly states that the untargetability was a guess on his part, and that the spoon in reailty prevents 'alterations to their code', which could mean any number of things.
If we listen to Xyre's own posts, he flatly states that the untargetability was a guess on his part, and that the spoon in reailty prevents 'alterations to their code', which could mean any number of things.
Such as preventing a mafia member from rebooting when targeted by a daykill?
More likely, it prevented the spread of the Smith disease.
@ Xyre : are you completely sure that if atlseal refuses the spoon, you get it back ? You really don't seem to know what your role is doing exactly and that makes me surprised that you'd know the answer to this question.
He was asked this, and he responded with:
Quote from Xyre »
As for your question, Ax, I have to succeed twice. Night 1, I targetted you, and you took it. Night 2, I was blocked, and so I kept the spoon. Night 3, I gave the spoon to atl, he apparently took it, and I'm now out.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense laywer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to eloborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
Are you indicating that you see Axel as scummy for trying to defend atl?
1) Only if we believe you are a townie.
2) Only if we believe something else about your role has not affected it
3) Only if we believe whomever claimed to target you (wasn't it our watcher?)
4) Only if the timing worked the way you thought (didn't you take the spoon the same night you were targeted?)
and finally...
5) Did ATL know that and was he willing to risk it?
CP's attempts to cast doubts on Axelrod seem to me like panic over the number of confirmed townies and AG just keeps on blinking on my scumdar.
If Axelrod were confirmed, this might have some merit as an argument. Please note that I am NOT advocating a lynch or anything of the sort.
We are assuming that Xyre was wrong about his "guess" as to what his role does. Why? Because Axelrod is targetable. That's a really bad reason. Despite the fact that Xyre never acted like he was certain about his role, you have to admit that this looks an awful lot like Axel is not town. This is no stretch.
Us making random guesses about what his role "really" does, like thinking that it protects against the cult, are singularly pointless, and certainly do nothing to demonstrate that Axel is more likely to be town.
Let me repeat that I am NOT advocating a lynch here. Axel is not likely to be mafia, at all. I am just pointing out that if Xyre is town (which is by no means a certainty, BTW), then Axel is very likely not. This is simple logic.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Well, it's what Xyre claim. Unless I remember wrong ?
He said scums with a spoon get two more votes to lynch and townies are…*have…*err…*we don't know what happen to townies.
Ah yes. I forgot about that part.
Which does bring up the question - why is Xyre clear about what his ability does to non-town people, but has no idea what it does to pro-town people?
@CP: I really don't see how all of that makes it 'look an awful lot like Axel is not town'. Xyre targeted him with an ability that he admittedly has no idea what it actually does. He speculated that it might grant untargetability. But we know now that this isn't the case. So, we already know that Xyre was wrong about what Xyre's ability does. Please explain how this randomly makes Axel look bad? If Xyre dies and comes up town at some point, that doesn't magically mean he was right about what the ability does. He was still wrong from the outset. I really fail to see why you're intent upon smeaning Axel here.
Also, please explain why our reasoning is 'bad'. Here's what happens: Xyre has 2 spoons. He says that he can offer one to a person, and they can choose whether or not to take it. If they take it as scum, it makes them +2 to lynch. If they take it as town, he thinks it makes them untargetable. We learn that Axel accepted one of the spoons. We know that Axel is not mafia, but he is also still targetable. The logical conclusion, therefore, is that Xyre was wrong about what the spoon does to people of the town. This conclusion is even *supported by Xyre* who said that he was inferring that 'preventing alterations to their code' = 'making people untargetable'.
The only one using 'bad reasoning' here is you.
What I don't really get about all of the spoons is..what happens if a spoon is given to a neutral role?
Xyre...admittedly has no idea what it actually does. He speculated that it might grant untargetability. But we know now that this isn't the case.
This is the part I'm not accepting. I said that Xyre probably does have a reasonable idea how his role works, and that for whatever reason he's been pressured by some of us into changing his interpretation. You have to remember that Xyre is the only one who actually has the role info in front of him, and thus his interpretation should not be dismissed.
This is assuming that Xyre is town, of course.
Also, the second sentence I quote is exactly what we do not know. I'm sure that you and Axel would love to be able to say for sure that townies with the spoon are not actually untargetable, but all we actually know is that Axel is not untargetable, which is nothing like the same thing. If we assume, like I do, that town-Xyre is the likeliest to be right about how his ability works, then the logical interpretation is that Axel is not town.
Also, please explain why our reasoning is 'bad'. Here's what happens: Xyre has 2 spoons. He says that he can offer one to a person, and they can choose whether or not to take it. If they take it as scum, it makes them +2 to lynch. If they take it as town, he thinks it makes them untargetable. We learn that Axel accepted one of the spoons. We know that Axel is not mafia, but he is also still targetable. The logical conclusion, therefore, is that Xyre was wrong about what the spoon does to people of the town. This conclusion is even *supported by Xyre* who said that he was inferring that 'preventing alterations to their code' = 'making people untargetable'.
The only one using 'bad reasoning' here is you.
What I don't really get about all of the spoons is..what happens if a spoon is given to a neutral role?
The bad reasoning here is assuming that 'not mafia' = 'town,' and that therefore, Xyre is wrong. The other bad reasoning is that speculation should outweigh role info: if Xyre is town, then we know that the first and most obvious way to interpret his role info is that Axelrod should be untargetable, and isn't. What we don't know is Axel's alignment, though we speculate that he is town. Assuming, therefore, that Xyre's interpretation is wrong because of speculation, is bad reasoning.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Because "+2 votes to lynch" is specific whereas "can't alter code" is less so.
The point is that it seems inconsistent for Az to have told you exactly what it does for non-town roles but is entirely vague regarding pro-town roles.
Of course, this is gaming the mod, but it does hurt your credibility a bit.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense laywer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to eloborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense laywer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to eloborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
Are you indicating that you see Axel as scummy for trying to defend atl?
Why?
Are you saying that you do see Axel as scummy and you are asking me if I do too?
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Upon further deliberation, I have sent an unvote atlseal , at least temporarily.
Reasons:
1. On day 2, atlseal was extremely anti-spoons. See post 2043. Given that, him declining the spoon makes total sense, regardless of alignment. I really can't see how atlseal would accept the spoon after making such a post, even if scum.
2. Xyre's insistence he did take the spoon, followed by a turnaround.
3. Xyre not knowing what the spoons even do when given to townies.
4. What can "protecting the code from corruption" be? Doesn't seem like untargetability, doesn't seem like unkillability (killing in this game 'corrupts' the body, not the code), fade said there was no mention of 'code corruption' when he was recruited, hence doesn't protect from cult. Anything else?
Add all those points together, and I have reasonable doubt.
Speaking about speculation and theory, Alx's points 3 and 4 have nothing to do with the matter at hand. What do we care what the spoons do ? The only question here is to know which of Xyre or atlseal is lying and for what reason (not belonging to the town being the most likely answer).
You're trying too hard to make me look bad, trampling common sense along the way.
Of course the question here is "who's lying".
And of course, our inability to establish what the heck is it the spoons do, serves at least as a slight indication Xyre is making up his ability.
atlseal's credibility, Xyre's credibility (and everything that affects those) is exactly the matter at hand.
1) Xyre's spoons make scums harder to lynch and have an undetermined effect on townies.
I accept this, but I want to make clear that while it may be true that we don't actually know what the effect is, we do have strong reason to think it makes townies untargetable. A number of people have been making the assumption that it specifically does not make townies untargetable, and drawing conclusions from that, when that is a totally unreasonable position to take.
If the choice is drawing conclusions based off the assumption that the spoons do what Xyre thought they do, or drawing drawing conclusions based off the assumption that the spoons don't, it should be clear which is the more likely scenario. And given that likelihood, this is a strong point in favor of Axel being non-town.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Conclusion from the facts : We don't have any idea of what is going on with the spoons, and nothing spoons-related can help us determine a player's alignment. That is, except if we are ready to pile eleven votes on Axelrod to see if he dies (duh).
You are completely ignoring the fact that no matter WHAT the spoons do, Xyre says ATL accepted one, and ATL says he didn't.
Ah, now I at least understand what people are talking about. You will forgive me for failing to make the connection earlier. I know the Spoons don't make townies untargetable so this has not ever been an issue for me.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Why?
Are you saying that you do see Axel as scummy and you are asking me if I do too?
Why? Because I was curious about your answer. I'm not sure about Axel at this point. He's been sitting on neutral so far for me.
I asked because you made it seem as if you felt atl was scummy. At least that's what I got from your post. And then you make a reference about how it's nice to have someone come out and be an intermediary for atl. You comment on Axel coming out and talking in defense of atl but you don't say much about else about Axel. So I was looking for more of an opinion from you.
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Ah, now I at least understand what people are talking about. You will forgive me for failing to make the connection earlier. I know the Spoons don't make townies untargetable so this has not ever been an issue for me.
As an added note, the potential for two townies in the game to be untargetable would completely screw over the SK we know we have, and would cause serious problems for the mafia. Imagine if the cop was outed on day 1 and Xyre was able to make that cop untargetable. It would bork the game.
Whatever the spoons do to townies, untargetability is not likely to be it.
The reality in this situation is that Xyre says atl took the spoon, and atl says he didn't take the spoon, so someone's lying here even if it seems kind of daft.
I'm sorry that I'm having slow times between postings. It's because I'm quite busy at the current moment and normally only have enough time to check the thread once a day. School is just piling it on with tests, homework, student questions, etc.
[quote=ZeDorkSlipeur;/comments/10536064]Here are the facts : 1) Xyre's spoons make scums harder to lynch and have an undetermined effect on townies. 4) Having certain knowledge of Xyre's alignment will not give us certain knowledge of the effect of the spoon on townies, and therefore will not give us certain knowledge of the alignments of Axelrod and maybe Atlseal. Conclusion from the facts : We don't have any idea of what is going on with the spoons, and nothing spoons-related can help us determine a player's alignment. [/quote]
I agree with you that speculation and theory about what Xyre's spoons do or do not do is pretty pointless at this point. However, I also can't agree with your first point. I don't believe one iota about what Xyre claim's the spoons do. Since we can't trust him, you can't just go ahead and assume #1.
The truth is, like I brought up before, we can't trust anything about what Xyre's spoons do. Just think about it for yourself (what he claimed they do). Personally, I just don't buy any of it.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense lawyer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to elaborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
Are you indicating that you see Axel as scummy for trying to defend atl?
Why?
Are you saying that you do see Axel as scummy and you are asking me if I do too?
Why? Because I was curious about your answer. I'm not sure about Axel at this point. He's been sitting on neutral so far for me.
I asked because you made it seem as if you felt atl was scummy. At least that's what I got from your post. And then you make a reference about how it's nice to have someone come out and be an intermediary for atl. You comment on Axel coming out and talking in defense of atl but you don't say much about else about Axel. So I was looking for more of an opinion from you.
I see. So I was right. You are asking me if I think Axel is scummy and you are only admitting to thinking that you can’t decide if Axel is scum or town.
Well, to answer your question I think that Atl is acting suspicious, very suspicious and that, yes, I do think he is scum based on Xyre’s action. In regards to Axelrod, I believe he knows exactly what I meant by my comment. He defense of Alt was unasked for, and unnecessary. Alt comes back from Dragoncon, he has been accused of directly lying by Xyre and a bandwagon ensues. Oddly, Xyre hesitates and backtracks a little by PUBLICALLY stating he may have misinterpreted the results he received form Azrael. He unvotes and questions Azrael for clarification. He gets the clarification and proceeds to vote Alt as before. This is not the actions of a scum player. He opened himself up to extreme scrutiny and the possibility of completely unraveling a bandwagon that was likely to get alt lynched. This is the action of a town player who wanted to make sure before he possibly got a player mislynched on info he misinterpreted.
In the mean time alt decides it is not in his best interests to defend himself. Not even with an explanation of what he might think happened last night that would explain how Xyre misinterpreted his results. At this point Axel steps in and makes the defense post that Alt should have. Here it is:
Man, I really don't get why (if we assume atlseal is scum) Altseal would take the Spoon, and then lie and say he didn't take it. That just makes no sense. I mean, why not admit he took it? What would he be hoping to gain there?
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. But then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
This post directly tells the players of the game to NOT VOTE for Alt, effectively trying to stop a bandwagon that is based on direct evidence from a night action. This bandwagon is almost guaranteed to catch a scum player. Either Alt, who has been accused directly of lying by Xyre, or who has put himself out there and is sure to be lynched if he is proven to be a liar. Axel’s post also focuses more on Xyre and the possibility of him being scum, lying or wrong then it does explore the possibility of Alt being scum. It does not even touch on why Alt has chosen not to defend himself or on the nature of his frequently mutating role claim.
Now I ask you why would Axelrod make a post like this and attempt to derail this bandwagon? If your answer is to discuss the possibilities of the each position then I ask why he does not recognize, and state, that there is a very high probability that alt is scum and if he is not then it is almost certain that Xyre is?
So, to summarize, yes I do think that this post by Axelrod is suspicious and I do think that he is as well. As for whether or not I think he is scum, I am not sure but he is on my suspect list.
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Alt's post here is lacking completely in what i would be looking for in the way of a defense.
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No, it does not. Knowing Xyre's alignment will give us an indication of whether he is making up his ability (and/or his lack of accurate knowledge about it). The reverse is not true.
Knowing Xyre is making up his ability will not give indication of his alignment?
I'm rather puzzled and mystified actually. Is this the way Mafia is supposed to be played?
atlseal seems to be the play today but before we move on, I'd like HE7 and Xyre to answer.
Again :I'm beginning to feel like Xyre is dodging the question. Axelrod and I have been asking that for a while and we haven't had a clear yes or no. I want a clear yes or no.
Last question Xyre (maybe): since you got a confirm PM from Az when I took the Spoon, is the one you got when Atl took the Spoon the same? Is it different? WHat can you tell us about them?
I am trying to understand why you yourself appeared confused about this initially.
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I meant why can't we just vote atlseal. My vote's in the right place.
I can possibly see why a scum atlseal would refuse to take the Spoon, if Xyre is town and they didn't know what it did, they might be cautious. BUt then he actually refuses it, and says so. But why would he take it? And then not admit it?
The flip side, with Xyre as the scum, at least makes slightly more sense. His Spoons do bad things (this does not bode well for me, BTW). Altseal refuses it because he is suspicious. Fine. Then Xyre runs this gambit to get atlseal lynched by saying atlseal is lying. When atlseal comes up town, Xyre back-tracks, and get evasive (again) essentially claiming he is getting misleading/confusing PMs from the Mod. (again).
Last question, Xyre: you said you no longer have a Spoon. This is not quite the same thing as saying that Atlseal definitely took it. Do you know for certain that if a person "refuses" your Spoon, you get it back and get another opportunity to give it? Is it possible that you just lose the Spoon if the person you offer it to refuses it?
No one else send in any votes, please. There may be something we can do to settle this before a lynch. In fact, if some anonymous voters could unvote that might be good. It seems we are getting really close.
Oh, it's safe for me to go ahead and reveal this now.... I targeted ATL today and got no PM saying my ability failed. So far, I've used my day ability 3 times, all 3 on ATL. One of them I got back a "you could not find him" PM (the day he vanished). The other two times I got a "confirmed" PM.
So if you want to know why he'd lie, it would be because if he said "I took it" and then I posted "dude, I just targeted you successfully" it would have gotten him insto lynched.
I know, it doesn't make any sense to me either. That's part of the reason why I was so apprehensive with my vote after atl posted - I thought I already knew the answer to the question. I figured atl would say "oh, yeah, I did, sorry", and while that might look bad, it probably doesn't look as bad as it does right now.
As for your question, Ax, I have to succeed twice. Night 1, I targetted you, and you took it. Night 2, I was blocked, and so I kept the spoon. Night 3, I gave the spoon to atl, he apparently took it, and I'm now out.
As a side note, there is evidence in the first PM Az sent me (the confirmation PM) that atl is probably some creature, and perhaps is the Cheshire Cat. Of course, that doesn't clear him, but this is another reason why I wasn't positive atl was scum. Additionally, Az's last PM has some flavor which I won't quote for fear of modkill which makes me feel something's not quite right; it's a reference to Dwight, actually. This is why I have a feeling that there's some bastard mod ploy afoot, but I can't quite place what it is.
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I don't follow this. What are you saying here? We already established that the Spoon does not stop you from getting targeted.
What I really don't get is why atlseal isn't making this post for himself, or any post in his defense for that matter?
I suppose if I were scum and caught in a situation like this I'd let another player act as Johnny Cockran for me too.
However, I would not just shut up and let someone else act as a defense laywer for me if I was innocent. I would at least contribute to the case and try to eloborate on any possible points that would contribute to showing the person accusing me to be either misguided or scummy.
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He's throwing his scum buddy under the bus.
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1) Only if we believe you are a townie.
2) Only if we believe something else about your role has not affected it
3) Only if we believe whomever claimed to target you (wasn't it our watcher?)
4) Only if the timing worked the way you thought (didn't you take the spoon the same night you were targeted?)
and finally...
5) Did ATL know that and was he willing to risk it?
A side-effect from modding Blood Moon.
Nope, he received the spoon on Night 1 and was targeted on Night 2. But you could of course try and confirm it with your "day ability".
Here's the thing. There shouldn't be any reason for atlseal to lie about taking the spoon EVEN if he is scum. The +2 to lynch thing, if what Xyre claimed is true, is still a benefit of sorts, albeit not a very useful one.
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I actually wish I'd thought of that today. But I screwed up.
I don't want to say I will test it tomorrow, for obvious reasons. But if I do test it, I'll let people know the results.
Hmm. Okay, this is what I'm thinking. If atl is innocent, then Xyre is clearly scum. I don't think this especially likely, though. If Xyre is scum, then I don't know what that says about Axel, but it definitely looks wierd. If atl is scum, then I'm at a loss about Xyre, but I'm inclined to think that Axel is probably not town. Likely neutral, since I have a hard time imagining both atl and Axel on the same scum team. Especially if Xyre turns up innocent in this case, I don't see any reasonable way to conclude that Axel is town.
That makes sense, right?
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Not a word of it. Sorry.
I suppose another possibility I'm not really considering is that atlseal just fell on his face and wasn't thinking at all when he said he refused it. People do make completely stupid moves, occasionally....
Actually, this 'vote cover' makes perfect sense with atlseal being the prime candidate of suspicion. Otherwise, if we could see the vote tally, as soon as atlseal got to 11 votes and wasn't lynched, we would immediately known something was up.
Yes, Xyre has been incredibly scummy and obscure about his role, and has backtracked a lot, which is why I don't make any assumptions about Axel if Xyre is scum, but I think I have to assume that if Xyre is town, then there's more truth to his original claims than we've been giving them credit for, which strongly implies neutrality for Axel.
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Such as preventing a mafia member from rebooting when targeted by a daykill?
More likely, it prevented the spread of the Smith disease.
He was asked this, and he responded with:
Please explain?
Are you indicating that you see Axel as scummy for trying to defend atl?
Yes, ZDS watched Axel receive a spoon.
I have not sent my vote in as of yet and atl is still my preference for voting at this time.
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If Axelrod were confirmed, this might have some merit as an argument. Please note that I am NOT advocating a lynch or anything of the sort.
We are assuming that Xyre was wrong about his "guess" as to what his role does. Why? Because Axelrod is targetable. That's a really bad reason. Despite the fact that Xyre never acted like he was certain about his role, you have to admit that this looks an awful lot like Axel is not town. This is no stretch.
Us making random guesses about what his role "really" does, like thinking that it protects against the cult, are singularly pointless, and certainly do nothing to demonstrate that Axel is more likely to be town.
Let me repeat that I am NOT advocating a lynch here. Axel is not likely to be mafia, at all. I am just pointing out that if Xyre is town (which is by no means a certainty, BTW), then Axel is very likely not. This is simple logic.
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Ah yes. I forgot about that part.
Which does bring up the question - why is Xyre clear about what his ability does to non-town people, but has no idea what it does to pro-town people?
Also, please explain why our reasoning is 'bad'. Here's what happens: Xyre has 2 spoons. He says that he can offer one to a person, and they can choose whether or not to take it. If they take it as scum, it makes them +2 to lynch. If they take it as town, he thinks it makes them untargetable. We learn that Axel accepted one of the spoons. We know that Axel is not mafia, but he is also still targetable. The logical conclusion, therefore, is that Xyre was wrong about what the spoon does to people of the town. This conclusion is even *supported by Xyre* who said that he was inferring that 'preventing alterations to their code' = 'making people untargetable'.
The only one using 'bad reasoning' here is you.
What I don't really get about all of the spoons is..what happens if a spoon is given to a neutral role?
I seem to have found the problem........
Because "+2 votes to lynch" is specific whereas "can't alter code" is less so.
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This is the part I'm not accepting. I said that Xyre probably does have a reasonable idea how his role works, and that for whatever reason he's been pressured by some of us into changing his interpretation. You have to remember that Xyre is the only one who actually has the role info in front of him, and thus his interpretation should not be dismissed.
This is assuming that Xyre is town, of course.
Also, the second sentence I quote is exactly what we do not know. I'm sure that you and Axel would love to be able to say for sure that townies with the spoon are not actually untargetable, but all we actually know is that Axel is not untargetable, which is nothing like the same thing. If we assume, like I do, that town-Xyre is the likeliest to be right about how his ability works, then the logical interpretation is that Axel is not town.
The bad reasoning here is assuming that 'not mafia' = 'town,' and that therefore, Xyre is wrong. The other bad reasoning is that speculation should outweigh role info: if Xyre is town, then we know that the first and most obvious way to interpret his role info is that Axelrod should be untargetable, and isn't. What we don't know is Axel's alignment, though we speculate that he is town. Assuming, therefore, that Xyre's interpretation is wrong because of speculation, is bad reasoning.
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The point is that it seems inconsistent for Az to have told you exactly what it does for non-town roles but is entirely vague regarding pro-town roles.
Of course, this is gaming the mod, but it does hurt your credibility a bit.
Why?
Are you saying that you do see Axel as scummy and you are asking me if I do too?
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Reasons:
1. On day 2, atlseal was extremely anti-spoons. See post 2043. Given that, him declining the spoon makes total sense, regardless of alignment. I really can't see how atlseal would accept the spoon after making such a post, even if scum.
2. Xyre's insistence he did take the spoon, followed by a turnaround.
3. Xyre not knowing what the spoons even do when given to townies.
4. What can "protecting the code from corruption" be? Doesn't seem like untargetability, doesn't seem like unkillability (killing in this game 'corrupts' the body, not the code), fade said there was no mention of 'code corruption' when he was recruited, hence doesn't protect from cult. Anything else?
Add all those points together, and I have reasonable doubt.
You're trying too hard to make me look bad, trampling common sense along the way.
Of course the question here is "who's lying".
And of course, our inability to establish what the heck is it the spoons do, serves at least as a slight indication Xyre is making up his ability.
atlseal's credibility, Xyre's credibility (and everything that affects those) is exactly the matter at hand.
I accept this, but I want to make clear that while it may be true that we don't actually know what the effect is, we do have strong reason to think it makes townies untargetable. A number of people have been making the assumption that it specifically does not make townies untargetable, and drawing conclusions from that, when that is a totally unreasonable position to take.
If the choice is drawing conclusions based off the assumption that the spoons do what Xyre thought they do, or drawing drawing conclusions based off the assumption that the spoons don't, it should be clear which is the more likely scenario. And given that likelihood, this is a strong point in favor of Axel being non-town.
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You are completely ignoring the fact that no matter WHAT the spoons do, Xyre says ATL accepted one, and ATL says he didn't.
Why? Because I was curious about your answer. I'm not sure about Axel at this point. He's been sitting on neutral so far for me.
I asked because you made it seem as if you felt atl was scummy. At least that's what I got from your post. And then you make a reference about how it's nice to have someone come out and be an intermediary for atl. You comment on Axel coming out and talking in defense of atl but you don't say much about else about Axel. So I was looking for more of an opinion from you.
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As an added note, the potential for two townies in the game to be untargetable would completely screw over the SK we know we have, and would cause serious problems for the mafia. Imagine if the cop was outed on day 1 and Xyre was able to make that cop untargetable. It would bork the game.
Whatever the spoons do to townies, untargetability is not likely to be it.
The reality in this situation is that Xyre says atl took the spoon, and atl says he didn't take the spoon, so someone's lying here even if it seems kind of daft.
[quote=ZeDorkSlipeur;/comments/10536064]Here are the facts :
1) Xyre's spoons make scums harder to lynch and have an undetermined effect on townies.
4) Having certain knowledge of Xyre's alignment will not give us certain knowledge of the effect of the spoon on townies, and therefore will not give us certain knowledge of the alignments of Axelrod and maybe Atlseal.
Conclusion from the facts : We don't have any idea of what is going on with the spoons, and nothing spoons-related can help us determine a player's alignment. [/quote]
I agree with you that speculation and theory about what Xyre's spoons do or do not do is pretty pointless at this point. However, I also can't agree with your first point. I don't believe one iota about what Xyre claim's the spoons do. Since we can't trust him, you can't just go ahead and assume #1.
The truth is, like I brought up before, we can't trust anything about what Xyre's spoons do. Just think about it for yourself (what he claimed they do). Personally, I just don't buy any of it.
I see. So I was right. You are asking me if I think Axel is scummy and you are only admitting to thinking that you can’t decide if Axel is scum or town.
Well, to answer your question I think that Atl is acting suspicious, very suspicious and that, yes, I do think he is scum based on Xyre’s action. In regards to Axelrod, I believe he knows exactly what I meant by my comment. He defense of Alt was unasked for, and unnecessary. Alt comes back from Dragoncon, he has been accused of directly lying by Xyre and a bandwagon ensues. Oddly, Xyre hesitates and backtracks a little by PUBLICALLY stating he may have misinterpreted the results he received form Azrael. He unvotes and questions Azrael for clarification. He gets the clarification and proceeds to vote Alt as before. This is not the actions of a scum player. He opened himself up to extreme scrutiny and the possibility of completely unraveling a bandwagon that was likely to get alt lynched. This is the action of a town player who wanted to make sure before he possibly got a player mislynched on info he misinterpreted.
In the mean time alt decides it is not in his best interests to defend himself. Not even with an explanation of what he might think happened last night that would explain how Xyre misinterpreted his results. At this point Axel steps in and makes the defense post that Alt should have. Here it is:
This post directly tells the players of the game to NOT VOTE for Alt, effectively trying to stop a bandwagon that is based on direct evidence from a night action. This bandwagon is almost guaranteed to catch a scum player. Either Alt, who has been accused directly of lying by Xyre, or who has put himself out there and is sure to be lynched if he is proven to be a liar. Axel’s post also focuses more on Xyre and the possibility of him being scum, lying or wrong then it does explore the possibility of Alt being scum. It does not even touch on why Alt has chosen not to defend himself or on the nature of his frequently mutating role claim.
Now I ask you why would Axelrod make a post like this and attempt to derail this bandwagon? If your answer is to discuss the possibilities of the each position then I ask why he does not recognize, and state, that there is a very high probability that alt is scum and if he is not then it is almost certain that Xyre is?
So, to summarize, yes I do think that this post by Axelrod is suspicious and I do think that he is as well. As for whether or not I think he is scum, I am not sure but he is on my suspect list.
EWP
Alt's post here is lacking completely in what i would be looking for in the way of a defense.
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Sending in my vote on atl.
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Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
And I am in favor of an atlseal's lynch as well, rather than xyre's.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Knowing Xyre is making up his ability will not give indication of his alignment?
I'm rather puzzled and mystified actually. Is this the way Mafia is supposed to be played?
The answer is yes. I already said yes.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I am trying to understand why you yourself appeared confused about this initially.