It took me until the "cue the sun" bit to finally realize who Hawkeye is...and I'm also confused why you're in the Matrix, Mr. Truman.
Given that he has made his character claim relatively obvious (I actually had to search the thread to see if I'd mentioned the Truman Show before since I've been thinking it for a while), why do you believe he's automatically scummy? And along those lines, what do you think of DYH's Silberman being in given that he doesn't fit with Axel and Cyan's explanations for John Connor and the Terminator being in?
Charm, I unvoted Loran. Unvote loran to make it easy. Also, HE7 could easily be any director and spoof that line. That's not proof of anything.
ZDS: I didn't say I thought your behavior was especially scummy, except for the part where you claimed scum. It's that you seem to think that such behavior is scummy that draws my attention. Why would you say that your own behavior is "a classic scum-tell" unless you knew it to be true? Also, I'd just point out that the duration of your attack doesn't make loran any less of a random player than the rest of us. And your point #2 is so self-contradictory as to make me burst out laughing when I read it.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Laugh. Raf, if you backpedalled any more quickly on that whole bit, you would have literally fallen on your ass. You went from voting Axel to asserting that Axel could be town while I'm neutral(never explaining why this would be the case or would even make sense, of course), in the matter of a couple of posts. Posts in which absolutely no new information was provided, just information that you had failed to read me posting before. I understand that it's frustrating for you to be scum and be facing a bunch of townies that you basically can't kill, but this hardly seems the right way to go about it.
I'm not sure how I feel about DYH's claim, but DYH hasn't done anything that would draw my suspicion thus far, either, so I'm not that worried about it.
I'm not really feeling the case on Loran.
Lastly, this thread makes my head hurt. So much is going on that I'm finding it hard to keep up on everything, but everyone seems really scattered and unfocused right now. Alot of attention seems to be going towards people and their roleplaying, but, I don't really see how we're benefitting from focusing on this.
Laugh. Raf, if you backpedalled any more quickly on that whole bit, you would have literally fallen on your ass. You went from voting Axel to asserting that Axel could be town while I'm neutral(never explaining why this would be the case or would even make sense, of course), in the matter of a couple of posts. Posts in which absolutely no new information was provided, just information that you had failed to read me posting before. I understand that it's frustrating for you to be scum and be facing a bunch of townies that you basically can't kill, but this hardly seems the right way to go about it.
This is a continuation from day 1. If you'd deigned to answer questions instead of acting like everyone should just fall over and believe you, this wouldn't have been necessary. And I will note that I have maintained and still maintain that you're non-town, so I don't see the backpedal.
As I said, the vote on Axelrod was just to get him to answer a question. With the question answered (and contrary to what you say, new information was provided), I am satisfied that it is possible he is town, yes. However, your behaviour is too scummy to be excused so easily, plus there's the point you keep glossing over about how come your goal is apparently to kill machines, plus with all the "confirmable" power stuff running around I am getting ever less likely to believe that your little defensive setup is all true and all town, yes.
I wonder how many times I'll have to say that I answered the question previously, and at least a couple people realized that it was just speculation, on my part, based upon flavor, before it'll sink in for you. And no, you haven't 'maintained' that I was non-town, you've just whined once or twice that I didn't answer some question to your satisfaction. What you fail to realize is that I don't care if you're satisfied or not. You never are. Someone can have the best claim conceivable and you'll still not be satisfied, instead choosing to needlessly harass them. So, you will have to forgive me if I don't take you seriously. Because I don't.
Re: DYH's vote: you voted, you've yet to unvote, and whoever you've proxied your vote to (which I beleive you haven't) hasn't unvoted you either. the vote stands.
*DYH hesitantly walks up to Charm Master and pulls at his face. Nope, the skin doesn't budge- not Azrael hiding with a mask.
On the bright side, at least it didn't come off to show metal underneath.
I actually proxied my vote to atlseal awhile ago - which should reset my vote because I asked before this nightmare started if changing the proxy did so. When I ask someone to speak on my behalf they get to do so with a clean slate.
I've been keeping notes - I have a hard time remembering things these days through all the fear. I'll compile them within the next few days for all to see.
The thread is too huge to do any kind of comprehensive review that wouldn't take many, many hours. What we can do now though, is look a little more closely at the (very) few things we know for certain. Specifically, we know that Hvir and LJustus were both townies.
The question is: can we garner anything from looking at those wagons/claims and the way that people reacted to them? I don't actually know the answer to this yet, but I'm going to look. Starting now.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Post #882 is where the ball actually got rolling with respect to LJustus. That was the post where he asked the town a question: If we could know one person's alignment for certain, who would we pick?
Although he said this was not a Cop claim, it didn't take too much brain power to recognize that what he was hinting at was some sort of "day-inspect" type ability.
The current vote count according to Sutherlands was:
Such uniformity. Everybody wanted to know Cyan's alignment. Amazing really. Of those people, however, only two were actually voting for Cyan at the time (ZDS and Xyre). Four people were voting for someone else entirely - Abbey, Alx, and CP were voting for atlseal, Sutherlands was voting for Xyre. The rest were not currently voting (and I do not know who DYH had proxied his vote to at that moment).
I would say that it's somewhat suspicious to not be picking the person who you are actually voting for as the person who's alignment you want to know the most. So fingers of suspicion to those four people.
CP's response in particular seemed a bit off. He said "Cyan" just like everybody else, but then quiped "Now can we get back to lynching atlseal?" As though atlseal was the vote leader or something (he wasn't), or there was some kind of general consensus that we should lynch him (again, there wasn't).
The only other comment came from Sutherlands (another person voting for someone other than Cyan). He said "Cyan. Although right now I think he's highly likely to be mafia." That sentence is something of a non-sequiter. If you think he's highly likely to be scum, why wouldn't you want them inspected? Why say "Although?"
In any event, this is the point where LJustus cryptically votes for himself, in post #898, saying "Trust me on this." Again, it wouldn't take a lot of brain power to recognize that his earlier question and this vote were probably related in some way.
So, how do people react to that? I have to get to that later....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I think Raf is being silly. If we consider "the One" (a la Neo) as any sort of "good guy" in the Matrix mythos, then we must also consider Axelrod and probably Cyan as well.
*DYH hesitantly walks up to Charm Master and pulls at his face. Nope, the skin doesn't budge- not Azrael hiding with a mask.
On the bright side, at least it didn't come off to show metal underneath.
O.o;; was that DYH thinking I was a gimmick?
I actually proxied my vote to atlseal awhile ago - which should reset my vote because I asked before this nightmare started if changing the proxy did so. When I ask someone to speak on my behalf they get to do so with a clean slate.
I've been keeping notes - I have a hard time remembering things these days through all the fear. I'll compile them within the next few days for all to see.
ok, but he hasn't voted for you and is currently...indisposed (not by the game, by life; he's gone camping IIRC) so until you've been unvoted for, I'm supposed to keep it there. As you've apparently found out, I'm not the mod, I don't make the rules...
Official Counting of Votes for Day 3 of Matrix Mafia: An Azrael Production
1 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7-DYH, Charm_Master
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
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Such uniformity. Everybody wanted to know Cyan's alignment. Amazing really. Of those people, however, only two were actually voting for Cyan at the time (ZDS and Xyre). Four people were voting for someone else entirely - Abbey, Alx, and CP were voting for atlseal, Sutherlands was voting for Xyre. The rest were not currently voting (and I do not know who DYH had proxied his vote to at that moment).
Cyan was the town's largest point of contention at the time (or maybe he still is?). Regardless of whether *I* found him the most suspicious of all or not, knowledge of his alignment seemed to be the most useful in the wider context of the game.
Quote from Charm_Master »
1 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
Try harder.
Quote from ZDS »
Here is what I think Alx's AbbeyGargoyles's train of thought was :
He's scum, and wants to look townie. In order to achieve this goal, he is making himself seem like an analyst he's participating. He read a few posts until he found something interesting (or maybe he just checked the post count), comment-worthy, looked up a few more posts to see if there was something to do with it, made a brief non-contentuous comment on it, repeated this process again and again, and ended up with the ever popular lurking accusation. lurking-in-plain-sight strategy.
I would say that it's somewhat suspicious to not be picking the person who you are actually voting for as the person who's alignment you want to know the most.
Why? I was confident that atl was scum. There is little point in wanting to know the alignment of someone you hope to lynch, because lynching them gets you their alignment. I'd think you would be more suspicious of the people who wanted to know the alignment of the person they were trying to get lynched - if they were confident enough to lynch Cyan, there shouldn't be enough question about his alignment to let him live just so we can waste an investigation on someone we were planning on killing anyway.
Investigations are for people you don't know about, not people you think are scummy. The scummy ones are the ones you lynch.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Why? I was confident that atl was scum. There is little point in wanting to know the alignment of someone you hope to lynch, because lynching them gets you their alignment. I'd think you would be more suspicious of the people who wanted to know the alignment of the person they were trying to get lynched - if they were confident enough to lynch Cyan, there shouldn't be enough question about his alignment to let him live just so we can waste an investigation on someone we were planning on killing anyway.
Investigations are for people you don't know about, not people you think are scummy. The scummy ones are the ones you lynch.
Well, this is wrong.
The primary problem is your (and others') degree of confidence. You have no basis to be so confident. Not unless you are a Cop with a Guilty or you got some other inside information. Atlseal had claimed JoaT at this point, yes? There's nothing so fundamentally suspicious about that claim so as to make one automatically disbelieve it.
If you think you got a good read on someone that's fine. But (unless Cop, etc.) I virtually always am second guessing myself and double-checking to make sure that my suspicion is well grounded. If I was given an opportunity to know the alignment of my top target, I would jump on it. Because it is stupid to mislynch when it can be avoided.
This was Day 1. With no dead bodies but Arimnaes, no one had any buisness being so sure of themselves - except scums.
I totally recognize, however, that people do this. People with no inside info. and who should know better routinely declare that a particular player is scum, no questions asked. I am not about to say that your (or anyone's) failure to want to know the alignment of the person you were voting for before they were lynched is a clear sign of scummitude. It is noteworthy, however.
The fact that Xyre and ZDS were consistent about picking the person they were voting for does not exactly clear them either. But it's not suspicious.
Alx's response to this question is better than yours.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Cyan was the town's largest point of contention at the time (or maybe he still is?). Regardless of whether *I* found him the most suspicious of all or not, knowledge of his alignment seemed to be the most useful in the wider context of the game.
This really isn't true, I didn't become the 'largest point of contention' until after all of that went down with LJustus. People named me because, even though Ljustus said 'if you could investigate anyone, who would it be', he specifically named Grakthis and myself, thus those names stuck in people's heads.
As per Abbey's request, I went over his posts again. I reached the conclusion that the situation with him isn't as bad as I originally thought. IT IS FAR WORSE. I could only go up to about post 1200, then I went into scum-overload.
208: meaningless
215: "after Xyre's wagon passed, I think Xyre is town". "I don't see a case on ZDS but I'm interested in what Alx has to say about him".
216: banter, mod-vote
240: banter
298: (after ZDS-wagon starts flowing) gives ZDS some tough lovin', but w/o actually expressing opinion.
306: Advocates following Standard Operating Procedure on claims.
311: banter on Wiki article, names
372: "Grak is being Grak". Generic mason strategy discussion, invoking memories of other games.
387: banter w/Loran re: Grak's behavior
477: Again generic mason-strategy discussion, notes atlseal bandwagoning and Sutherlands bad & scummy plan. No vote.
480: mason strategy discussion w/Grak
486: more of the same, says Grak shouldn't have revealed his role info
487: more mason strategy discussion w/Grak
497: amazingly enough, MORE mason strategy discussion w/Grak. Points out a slip, no vote.
502: explains the slip.
553: promises a PBPA of atlseal.
559: the promised PBPA. I need to reread the other players' argument on atl to see just how much originality was injected here. FINALLY, HE VOTES.
562: "seconded"
576: argues with atlseal. THIS IS HIS FIRST POST OF THE GAME THAT ACTUALLY GIVES A SOLID PROTOWN VIBE. Alas, not for long.
590: argues with atlseal again
710: dislikes the atlseal claim
724: supports LJ's dig at atlseal
733: banter
742: banter
763: pushes for atlseal lynch again
(at that point, the town sort-of-decides to leave atlseal alone, Cyan is the focus of attention)
805: He argues with.... you guessed, it, Cyan!
870: semi-agrees with DYH on Sutherlands faking the votecounts
890: conventional position with respect to LJ's question
900: agrees with LJ's plan, votes him.
909: banter with Grak
911: banter
959: wiki-link
973: believes LJ
1007:flavor-talk
1020:flavor-talk
1047:a slight push at, you guessed it, Cyan
1059:wants to lynch Cyan over LJ
1060:votes Cyan
1206:disbelieves Cyan's multi-life claim
Summary:
1. The amount of generic banter, generic strategy discussion and info-dumps is larger than average, but that's not the worse part...
2. The person at the focus of Abbey's attention, the one with whom he argues, the one who he takes digs at, is ALWAYS the one under the town's scrutiny. Always. ZDS-wagon rolls, Abbey argues with ZDS. Town doesn't look at Sutherlands, Abbey doesn't look at Sutherlands, despite expressed interest. Town looks at atlseal, Abbey looks at atlseal. Town looks at Cyan, Abbey looks at Cyan (and never mentions atlseal again...).
In summary, whenever he's not lurking in plain view, his posts have the definite whiff of an AGENDA, pushing toward very specific goals. Confirm vote.
Thanks for that. So helpful to know my playstyle is wrong. Except it isn't.
The primary problem is your (and others') degree of confidence. You have no basis to be so confident. Not unless you are a Cop with a Guilty or you got some other inside information. Atlseal had claimed JoaT at this point, yes? There's nothing so fundamentally suspicious about that claim so as to make one automatically disbelieve it.
It has nothing to do with the degree of my confidence. We have to lynch someone, and it is unutterably stupid to let the scummiest player, whoever I interpret that to be, to slide. The percentage play is always to investigate the players you are least sure of.
It isn't like we could clear atl at no cost to us, using that investigation. Using it on him would have meant not using it on someone else - someone that I wasn't sure of. Someone like Cyan.
If you think you got a good read on someone that's fine. But (unless Cop, etc.) I virtually always am second guessing myself and double-checking to make sure that my suspicion is well grounded. If I was given an opportunity to know the alignment of my top target, I would jump on it. Because it is stupid to mislynch when it can be avoided.
Are you claiming that by not lynching atl, we would have lynched scum? Because last time I checked, we didn't lynch atl, and we didn't lynch scum. We lynched a townie, even. It is stupid to choose not to lynch the scummiest player in favor of lynching the second scummiest player, no matter how scummy that player actually is.
This was Day 1. With no dead bodies but Arimnaes, no one had any buisness being so sure of themselves - except scums.
I totally recognize, however, that people do this. People with no inside info. and who should know better routinely declare that a particular player is scum, no questions asked. I am not about to say that your (or anyone's) failure to want to know the alignment of the person you were voting for before they were lynched is a clear sign of scummitude. It is noteworthy, however.
It has nothing to do with me being sure of myself. It has to do with one player being clearly (as far as I was concerned, obv) more scummy than anyone else. That isn't remotely the same thing. You should lynch the scummiest player every day. That's a given, and there might be exceptions, but "we can spend an investigation on him to clear him" isn't one of them. You can spend an investigation on anyone to clear them.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
This "OMG modkill business" makes me even more suspicious of Cyan, because it seems to me like he's trying to cover himself with bluster.
For the record, Cyan you didn't explain the inconsistency before- you ignored it, and a second ago you even admitted you had been ignoring it. I don't get where asking you to explain yourself is fishing for a modkill. Axelrod directly fished for a modkill on DYH by asking if he was quoting from his PM- I didn't see you complaining then.
Your explanation of the inconsistency suffices, although the fact remains that your stated belief that anti-machine = anti-town still suggests very strongly to me that you are indeed a neutral of some kind. However, that also keeps you alive for the time being, since there's no sign at the moment that you're responsible for any kills.
Yeah... I don't like how evasive Cyan feels either..... bugging the hell otu of me.
But Axelrod's explanation a few posts later feels good. The dichotomy between those two is driving me nuts.
Quote from Cyan »
Lastly, this thread makes my head hurt. So much is going on that I'm finding it hard to keep up on everything, but everyone seems really scattered and unfocused right now. Alot of attention seems to be going towards people and their roleplaying, but, I don't really see how we're benefitting from focusing on this.
I agree.. which is wacky, because I can normally deal with complicated threads... but it's like everyone feels the need to poop out role info every 5 minutes.
It's driving me insane, I can't keep my momentum going in one direction.
I still want Loran dead though.
Axelrod is guilty of some bad logic here... he's pointing out that people were wanting to see Cyan investigated even though they were voting for him, but he needs to understand that *I* was pushing heavily on Cyan so investigating Cyan would also tell them something about ME.
It has nothing to do with the degree of my confidence. We have to lynch someone, and it is unutterably stupid to let the scummiest player, whoever I interpret that to be, to slide. The percentage play is always to investigate the players you are least sure of.
A guilty result from a Cop is significantly more useful than an innocent. A strategy that says don't investigate who you are most suspicious of, investigate someone you have no idea about, is crazy. The only reason, in my mind, to forgo investigating the person you think you have the best odds on getting a guilty on, is if you are concerned that a town vig. might pop that player in the Night because he's so scummy looking and make your investigation moot.
How do you get "it's unutterably stupid to let the scummiest player slide" from a proposal that we investigate him? That is not letting him slide?
It isn't like we could clear atl at no cost to us, using that investigation. Using it on him would have meant not using it on someone else - someone that I wasn't sure of. Someone like Cyan.
Again with the unjustified confidence. You have no business being "sure" of anyone, Mr. Triple Voter. And saying that there's a "cost" because we aren't using it on someone else is circular.
That also completely ignores the fact that atl. claimed a very useful role, if it was true. Wouldn't it be worth it to verify him with all those abilities?
Are you claiming that by not lynching atl, we would have lynched scum? Because last time I checked, we didn't lynch atl, and we didn't lynch scum. We lynched a townie, even. It is stupid to choose not to lynch the scummiest player in favor of lynching the second scummiest player, no matter how scummy that player actually is.
Are you really misunderstanding the issue this badly? The theory was that atlseal would have been Cop Cleared at that point. Surely you wouldn't have continued to argue that he was the scummiest and needed to be lynched after that. So then, yes, obviously we would have picked someone else. And our chances of hitting scum would have been rather higher than they would have been had we lynched the Cop cleared person.
We are not "choosing not to lynch the scummiest player in favor of lynching the second scummiest." Why yes, that would have been an odd thing to do.
It has nothing to do with me being sure of myself. It has to do with one player being clearly (as far as I was concerned, obv) more scummy than anyone else. That isn't remotely the same thing. You should lynch the scummiest player every day. That's a given, and there might be exceptions, but "we can spend an investigation on him to clear him" isn't one of them. You can spend an investigation on anyone to clear them.
The issue was, who would you pick to investigate if you could pick anyone? You are arguing that you should not pick the person you think most likely to be scum. You appear to even be arguing that you shouldn't pick the person who you think is the second most likely to be scum. You appear to be saying you should pick someone you have no idea about at all. And I couldn't disagree more. Percentage-wise, that's a poor play.
What's your position on Atlseal right about now anyway?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Now, Dr. Silberman, I can understand your paranoia. We're all a little crazy. It's those that choose to accept it that are truly successful. For you, I shall Unvote and ask you make any changes of mind known to me.
@Dates: They are significant. You must first learn to free your mind.
I have one more theory to test out at the moment - Vote: PDog
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
Whatever the dates mean, the lack of definative years makes it a bit tricky to find anything. I scoured the history channel website, so I'm pretty sure he's not referring to actual historical events...Checking the wiki again might give up something though...
Official Counting of Votes for Day 3 of Matrix Mafia: An Azrael Production
2 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7- Charm_Master
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
1 PDogCrusader - Atlseal
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Yeah... I don't like how evasive Cyan feels either..... bugging the hell otu of me.
But Axelrod's explanation a few posts later feels good. The dichotomy between those two is driving me nuts.
Tell me about it.
Quote from Grakthis »
I agree.. which is wacky, because I can normally deal with complicated threads... but it's like everyone feels the need to poop out role info every 5 minutes.
MTGS large games have evolved in a weird direction. People used to play really tightly and make day 1 into a grinding battle to get anyone to give an opinion on anything (Sin City was played in that manner, DYH's role aside, and the town's closedmouthedness probably didn't work in its favour). Somehow we reached a point where half the town claims on day 1 or day 2. This one has been positively restrained by comparison. Plus it seems like there's been some roles where revealing early was strategy (e.g. LJustus' role).
Oh, and re: atl's dates.
1) People, it's obviously a coded message. He wants to be able to reveal something later but prove he was thinking it now.
2) WTF is anyone thinking by trying to break the code in the thread here and now? Do you think atl is scum? No? Then, DO NOT DO IT. This goes double to Charm Master, who appears to be deadset on releasing any information that pops into his head.
Actually, now that I think about it, why did we stop going after atlseal? He's not confirmed; all he's proved is the ability to role-cop someone. And isn't that normally a mafia role? He easily could have gotten the info he did as scum. The only thing that saved him yesterday was his claim, and he hasn't proved it. And hell, part of his claim was bad - that smilie ability is terribly designed. I can't believe Az would put that into the game just as atl's claimed it.
He claimed a role-block, right? Could we have him use that on someone tonight so they can confirm him in the morning?
Meanwhile, J-Effe. He hasn't done anything horribly scummy, but a lot of his posts don't make much sense / have bad logic. Here's the most interesting of them:
957
Quote from J-Effe »
Unvote.
Ljustus would be the correct and safe play for today ; Cyan is a riskier but better play. I am willing to take this risk and see what atlseal is up to do. I still don't believe his claim.
FoS atlseal, Vote Cyan.
In response I said:
Quote from Spoon »
So... you're not voting for the "correct and safe" play, nor are you voting for the guy who's claim you don't believe? Instead you'd like to take the risky play?
1103:
Quote from J-Effe »
Yes, all discussion benefits the town. But mafia will use this to their advantage by fooling us and leading us on the wrong track. The more we talk, the more they're likely to talk. A scum always end doing the smallest mistake that will reveal him as mafia. However, through 1000+ posts, it is more unlikely that we'll spot those mistakes. Just wanted to point this out.
I then say:
Quote from Spoon »
This is more or less wrong. More things said by scum = more chances for them to screw up. If they mislead us more and more, then we'll be able to see that as they post more and more.
Discussion = good. Period.
1348
Quote from J-Effe »
On a completely different subject, Grakthis and RafK are so much in front of town that they must be townies or mafia, I think.
Ahem. But he goes on.
Quote from J-Effe »
I can't really see them with a power role. I'm not saying they must be in the same clan, nothing like this. But they deserve some attention later, if not right now.
Right. Axel points out how ridiculous this is in 1385.
A lot of it is like that. As far as scummy actions, he goes along with the town a lot (on Cyan and LJ, for instance). He fishes on Xyre a little in 1711 as Fade linked above. He metagames against Xyre in 1734. It's not as bad as I remember, but there's definitely a case there. His posts are just weird a lot.
I'm just going to cut to the heart of this whole stupid issue and ignore the rest of the post, despite the fact that there are a number of things in there that are flat wrong and ought to be corrected.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I'm just going to cut to the heart of this whole stupid issue and ignore the rest of the post, despite the fact that there are a number of things in there that are flat wrong and ought to be corrected.
Because we aren't lynching him.
Duh.
In fact, maybe you have failed to notice, but we've been lynching other people who are not as scummy instead.
That is not the heart of the issue. That is, like, the spleen of the issue.
Whether or not atlseal has been lynched now is completely and totally irrelevant. We didn't get that inspection LJustus was hocking. We were talking about what we ought to have done with it had we actually gotten it.
You didn't answer my question though, what do you think of atlseal now? Do you still think he ought to be lynched, or does the proven role-Cop ability change your opinion at all? Your last remark appears to indicate that you still think we ought to be lynching him, but I also note you are currently voting for ZDS.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Anyway, continuing on with my look at the LJustus situation.
He votes himself in #898. These are the immediate reactions:
Sutherlands: #899 follows suit. Says he'll remove his vote if LJustus says he wants him to. Not scummy.
Abbey: #900. Follows suit. Says he'll bite and see where this is going. Not particularly scummy.
Alx2: #901. Follows suit. Just says "I'm intrigued." Not especially scummy, but not especially townie either.
Xyre: #903. Does not vote LJustus. Says he's "too suspicious" to feel comfortable following. WHOOP WHOOP WHOOP. My first red flag. Since when is Xyre suspicious of LJustus? He hasn't said anything about LJustus the whole game. Now suddenly LJustus is suspicious?
This is the first reaction I can easily see as a scum who's nervous about what LJustus is up to.
I further note that Sutherland brings up the very question about Xyre not having said anything about LJustus before and Xyre ignores him.
atlseal: #904. Asks before he votes whether LJustus is trying only to get to a certain vote-count, or to actually get lynched. Cautious, but perhaps not unreasonably so. It is a valid question even if the somewhat obvious answer is that LJustus would have told us this at the time if he could or if he had wanted us to know.
Pod: #906: asks the same question. Also gives excuse for being absent. Neutral to negative reaction.
Grakthis: #907: makes the point that if LJustus had wanted us to know how many votes he needed he probably would have just told us. Says nothing about the actual request itself and does not vote. Neutral to negative reaction here.
Cyan: #912: Willing to see where this goes - votes LJustus. I'm seeing this as a very townie reaction. Cyan was the overwhelming/unanimous choice of people as target for inspection if we could learn the alignment of anyone we wanted. He had to know that his butt was on the line if LJustus produced. And if Cyan were scum, he would have assumed that LJustus was telling the truth and could produce. This would have been him totally walking with arms outstretched into the lions den.
A townie, on the other hand, would have no fear.
J-Effe IV: #913. Has just replaced in for Wizzpig. Says he would have voted for atlseal but for LJustus' voting himself. Says he'll see where it goes. Votes LJustus. Neutral.
Atlseal will vote in #915. Says he saw LJustus reading the thread and assumes that he can't answer questions about it. This, again, is not an unreasonable reaction.
LJustus proceeds to full-claim in #916. Reactions to this will follow....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
In fact, maybe you have failed to notice, but we've been lynching other people who are not as scummy instead.
What, Kraj?.
What, Hvir?
Quote from carrion pigeons, just before Hvir claimed »
Note to self: Hvir is atl's scum buddy.
Quote from carrion pigeons, just after Hvir claimed »
But I mean, come on, Hvir claimed a role that no one believes, and will almost certainly be lynched today. Why are you acting all put upon?
Vote Hvirfilvindr
This high horse of yours ain't looking so good, cp. Remind me- who's this "we" that's been lynching "other people who are not as scummy"? I mean, there's been a lynch of a cult leader and a lynch of someone you voted for yourself...
Sorry guys for not posting in a bit....had to leave middle of this post so its a bit late, but thought itd be inappropriate for me not to comment on Ag's pbpa.
Analysis
loran has done some sketchy things, but I actually feel slightly better about him than I did before I started this exercise, not enough to unvote him yet, but enough to be open to hearing others' thoughts.
loran spends a considerable amount of time carving out the intellectual argument that being defensive != being scum. If I were cynical, I would say that is because he knows that he is by nature, defensive and doesn't want to be lynched.
Or its' because being defensive ISNT a scum tell, and yet is often cited as one by players and can cause a small wagon to get out of control fast.
He also has spent a lot of time rehashing his points of view and insisting that the pirate reference was a joke (in post 250).
He has a contradiction in what he is saying between posts 682 where he unvotes atlseal "due to recent developments" and then in 689 admitting that arimnaes' death had nothing to do with voting for atlseal. The interesting thing is that he doesn't re-vote but instead becomes more devoted to his player analysis project which he wishes to complete before voting.
Like i said, id started this review, and got distracted, and after arim's death, i sort of wanted to finish my player analysis. Sadly, i didnt have enough time to finish it per se, and its really useful when im able to do it. If i was able to do it, id be able to see really more clearly about each players' actions so far, and would know if atl, who i felt was the scummiest so far at the time, was really the best target for the day. Too often i can get blinded by one person and miss other's being more scummy, and i was trying to avoid that.
A second contradiction is in post 731 where he said doesn't mind Day 1 "observers" but flips out about Athos vote and asks for prods and replacements throughout the day.
There's a difference between observing and making comments and posting a random vote then disappearing without a trace. I don't like lurkers, they make the game less fun for all, and while it doesn't help the town, is done often enough by townies to make it a nontell. Fade's methods and whatnot still involved participating in the game, though not so much as i liked.
Not really a contradiction here.
loran doesn't seem to be paying attention to votes (forgot he was voting for Xyre while defending him in the early game), missed pressure building on Cyan Day 1. He also asked for details on roles that were already provided by those players before he asked (Alice's locations thing springs to mind immediately)
Had hvir already specificied that he didnt have a set list of locations? I wasn't sure from his claim.
Then in post 1187 he pseudo-votes Cyan while up until that point (Post 1101) loran found Cyan and worried about the wagon growing on him.
1187 is the first post i noticed cyan claiming multiple lives. Which i felt, and STILL feel is a bit ridiculous, and made me really apt to vote him.
I really didn't like his comment on Hvir's claim in post 1410: "i cant imagine either atl or H-guy lying at this point unless they're BOTH scum, as atl claimed a alice-role first, and H-guy claimed the alice-role most likely to be in the game." Which is a textbook case of an unaccounted middle.
Huh? I said neither was lying about their NAMECLAIMS....not that neither was lying.... Way to misread. Heck, i explained that a post later. How is this bad?
His behavior toward the Kraj wagon is also something that I find disturbing. In posts: 1516, 1517, 1525 he either ignores or doesn't read that it is a cult result and insists that atlseal is the correct play. The correct play is always to stamp out the cult first, although I actually agree with loran that finding the cult says nothing about atlseal's alignment. The mafia wants the cult dead as badly as the town does, but arguing to lynch a claimed JoAT before a cultist isn't a point in his favor as a vig could easily have saved a D3 lynch by taking out atlseal N2.
Meh, i stand by my play on this matter. That's all i can say.
Incidentally, your pbpa is certainly a refresher from zds' biased one. @Rafk, i dont mind him summarising all the posts like that if he gives analysis, as it makes it easier to follow ag's thought process. And he didnt exactly scimp on the analysis. (and no i dont think alx has any case really on ag)
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My apologies for going missing today. My car broke down and I've spent the past few hours trying to get it running again. I'll do a reread of the thread tomorrow and catch up then.
My apologies for my absence.
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That is not the heart of the issue. That is, like, the spleen of the issue.
Whether or not atlseal has been lynched now is completely and totally irrelevant. We didn't get that inspection LJustus was hocking. We were talking about what we ought to have done with it had we actually gotten it.
You didn't answer my question though, what do you think of atlseal now? Do you still think he ought to be lynched, or does the proven role-Cop ability change your opinion at all? Your last remark appears to indicate that you still think we ought to be lynching him, but I also note you are currently voting for ZDS.
No, you misunderstand me. I wasn't talking about atl there. I was talking about any hypothetical person who might happen to be the scummiest player at a particular point in time. If we choose to keep The Scummiest Player(TM) alive so that we can investigate him, then we are not lynching him, which is poor play. Case in point: we kept atl alive so we could investigate him, and thus we failed to lynch the scummiest player at the time.
And no, I do not still think that atl is the scummiest player, but that does not mean it was inappropriate at the time to call for his lynch. I do not even think he was the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, but we aren't talking about the end of Day 1, we're talking about the time when LJustus claimed, and at that time, atl was The Scummiest Player, and my opinions were both valid and consistent.
@Raf: I don't think we have lynched badly, and I didn't mean to give that impression. I've supported both lynches at the times when they were relevant, but that doesn't mean that other potential lynches (such as atl's) would not also have been appropriate. I can't say whether we are now better off with atl alive that we would be if Alice was alive. But at the time when atl's 'wagon was relevant, Hvir wasn't even on the radar, and atl was definitely, as far as I was concerned, lynchworthy. It may or may not have actually turned out better, but it would have been better play to just kill atl then and move on.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
First reaction to LJustus' full claim comes from Loran in #918. This is another RED FLAGGER. Calls the claim "interesting." (man, I hate when people say that, notwithstanding that I'm certain I say it myself all the time). Refers to it as a "Jester" claim, which it's not. Then appears to agonize over the decision to be made here, "agh." Which rings false to me. Does not truly express his own opinion about whether or not he believes it and what we should do.
Contrast with Spoon in #919. He also asks a question, but the vibe here is different. Genuinely seems to be trying to determine the best course of action. This may be a bit of my own bias showing now as I've not been particularly suspicious of Spoon regardless.
Grakthis' reaction is in #920. As with most things Grakthis, it's a mixed bag. Appears to believe the claim without any difficulty, to the point of saying we could probably write LJustus off as town now. Which is very quick to accept. Also appears to indicate that at least part of the reason for his easy acceptance is his opinion of LJustus' skill. He's not smart enough to be faking something like this. These are kind of scummish reasons to believe someone. A scum who knows it's a townie telling the truth could use reasons like these easily.
He also, however, says the plan "bugs" him, because he doesn't like the idea of lynching an almost confirmed townie just to clear another townie. And that's not an unreasonable position to take in as much as it's kind of like a push in terms of the overall town/mafia ratio. The overall effect is kind of neutral for me.
Cyan's reaction, in #921 further cements my opinion that he's not acting at all the way a scum would react. He expresses disbelief. He says it smells like a gambit to him (if he's scum he knows it's not a gambit, and furthermore, he knows he's the one going to get burned by it). He subsequently will continue to push for LJustus' lynch (which is what LJ wants) but is doing it because he thinks LJ is bluffing.
Absolute Balls of Steel if he's scum. I don't believe it.
First Unvote comes from Alx2 in #922. He says the inspection will be more valuable later when there are fewer players. Plus, if LJ has another ability that kicks in if he's night-killed, the scum can't even stop him without facing whatever that is. Win-Win. On the whole, this is not an unreasonable position to take. I can't really fault it. He also accepts the whole thing rather easily without any apparent suspicion, but it's not that bad.
First to actively support the "plan" is ZDS in #923. I do not really follow his logic here. He advocates lynching LJ and using the free inspect on Cyan. If Cyan comes up scum, then Atlseal can vig him, getting rid of said scum and presumably verifying atlseal at the same time. But if Cyan comes up town, he wants Atlseal to protect Cyan? And seems to think that Atlseal will still be able to use his inspect ability. Then he also directs the Town Watcher to watch (atlseal) in case the Mafia attempt to RB him, or in case a scum atlseal attempts to claim being RB. Seems to think Cyan's suspicion of LJ proves even more how he's scum. Which it doesn't.
This one gives me a negative vibe. A scum ZDS who knew Cyan was town would probably be happy if we lynched a townie and all the town got was a free inspect on Cyan out of it. The scum would probably consider that about as good as they were going to get, and better than having an actual scum inspected.
Hawkeye's reaction (or lack of reaction) in #924 is also noteworthy. He enters the thread and addresses a completely side issue not relevant to anything that is happening. The part where Grakthis says he thinks LJ isn't smart enough to come up with something like this as scum. Hawkeye defends LJ's intelligence.
Actually this post appears to be straddling the fence quite a bit. On the one hand, he's saying that LJ is smart enough to do this as scum, especially if he had the chance to talk to his fellow scum before the game, but then says that there must be something else in it for the scum if it is some kind of gambit. Because on it's face, the scum would not seem to get anything out of it.
So, yeah, what was your opinion again? What should we actually do in this situation? Negative reaction to this one.
Hvir pipes up with a Vote Cyan in #926. Man, are we sure he wasn't scum?
Xyre and Sutherlands are having their own private little argument at this point and Xyre respond to Suth. in #930. The only comment relevant to the LJ situation is the first one where Xyre says he was seriously thinking that LJ might have a Jester type role, and is still "uneasy" about lynching him. This does not make me feel any better about Xyre.
Xyre then makes a completely incorrect point (logically speaking) that LJ's claim makes him a likely target for a Mafia Night-Kill. Notwithstanding that this is what apparently happened, there is no way that LJ's claim would make him a likely Night target. Scum, assuming he was speaking truth, would have been scared to target him. Cyan makes that point in #933.
Cyan continues to push for the LJ lynch (Balls of STEEL if scum) and several people think this makes Cyan more suspicious looking. One is Sutherlands in #936.
Gotta stop for now. More later.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
And here I thought I was the one who was confused in this violent realm. No, this is not right at all. This effect just happened to me last night and as far as I know applies only to the current day.
Hawkeye appears to be even more confused than you, though. I don't understand at all what he's getting at with those bizarre questions.
It is not necessary for you to understand all of what I'm getting at with those questions.
Please just answer the questions.
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As per Abbey's request, I went over his posts again. I reached the conclusion that the situation with him isn't as bad as I originally thought. IT IS FAR WORSE. I could only go up to about post 1200, then I went into scum-overload.
I asked you to link and provide examples, not just read the posts. Check out my PBPAs if you want a sample.
Quote from Alx »
477: Again generic mason-strategy discussion, notes atlseal bandwagoning and Sutherlands bad & scummy plan. No vote.
480: mason strategy discussion w/Grak
486: more of the same, says Grak shouldn't have revealed his role info
487: more mason strategy discussion w/Grak
497: amazingly enough, MORE mason strategy discussion w/Grak. Points out a slip, no vote.
502: explains the slip.
553: promises a PBPA of atlseal.
559: the promised PBPA. I need to reread the other players' argument on atl to see just how much originality was injected here. FINALLY, HE VOTES.
Alright, my first big post expressing an opinion (which you say I never do) and you don't even read it? Even just the analysis section rather than every post? Secondly, think about 477 as it relates to 553 and 559.
Quote from Alx »
576: argues with atlseal. THIS IS HIS FIRST POST OF THE GAME THAT ACTUALLY GIVES A SOLID PROTOWN VIBE. Alas, not for long.
590: argues with atlseal again
710: dislikes the atlseal claim
724: supports LJ's dig at atlseal
733: banter
742: banter
763: pushes for atlseal lynch again
(at that point, the town sort-of-decides to leave atlseal alone, Cyan is the focus of attention)
Your last point here is argumentum ad populum. You say that arguing with atlseal is a pro-town vibe, then what is wrong with continuing to pursue it?
Quote from Alx »
805: He argues with.... you guessed, it, Cyan!
He became the focus of the thread. If I had said nothing with regard to him, then I fall under your "lurking" label instead.
Quote from Alx »
870: semi-agrees with DYH on Sutherlands faking the votecounts
890: conventional position with respect to LJ's question
900: agrees with LJ's plan, votes him.
909: banter with Grak
911: banter
959: wiki-link
973: believes LJ
1007:flavor-talk
1020:flavor-talk
1047:a slight push at, you guessed it, Cyan
The faking the votecounts thing was reasonable at the time because Sutherlands had screwed up there and the mod hadn't done anything about it to that point. Secondly, what was wrong with holding the conventional position with regards to LJ's question or voting for him?
Quote from Alx »
1059:wants to lynch Cyan over LJ
1060:votes Cyan
1206:disbelieves Cyan's multi-life claim
Summary:
1. The amount of generic banter, generic strategy discussion and info-dumps is larger than average, but that's not the worse part...
2. The person at the focus of Abbey's attention, the one with whom he argues, the one who he takes digs at, is ALWAYS the one under the town's scrutiny. Always. ZDS-wagon rolls, Abbey argues with ZDS. Town doesn't look at Sutherlands, Abbey doesn't look at Sutherlands, despite expressed interest. Town looks at atlseal, Abbey looks at atlseal. Town looks at Cyan, Abbey looks at Cyan (and never mentions atlseal again...).
Very interesting point to cut off here. Half of what you included was early game/DATBF portions of the game which by definition, have very little content. Deliberately trying to slant things in your favor for a PBPA is one thing, leaving out 2 whole days of posts is another.
I believe I addressed where I stood on Day 2 with atlseal when he gave us the cult. It does nothing for his alignment whatsoever as the mafia have just as big an interest in killing the cult, but a dead cult is a Good Thing (TM) for the town.
What should I have been talking about when the town was focused on someone, pray tell?
Quote from Alx »
In summary, whenever he's not lurking in plain view, his posts have the definite whiff of an AGENDA, pushing toward very specific goals. Confirm vote.
What agenda would that be? You are dancing around vague generalities here, so how am I supposed to defend myself from your accusations? Spell out my supposed "agenda" here.
Finally, you didn't in your whole post summary, point out somewhere, or even in one post that I did something scummy. Your only two comments outside of summarizing your view of them were that you didn't read the one PBPA that you included in your range of examined posts, and that 576 gave off a pro-town vibe in your mind.
Odds & Ends
I saw loran's response but I'll address loran's response tomorrow during work when I have had a full night's rest. To answer whoever asked me about Grak, I am not confident enough to say anything yet as Day 2 was pretty much a slam-dunk. Ask me again Day 4.
I like less and less Hawkeyes questions to DYH. Aside from mild fishing, what is he trying to achieve, really ? He's not even voting for him. FoS : HAWKEYE7, I'd like to know what's going on in your head.
Are you always afraid of what you don't or cant understand? Or do you just pretend to be?
I asked you a question too ZDS. Did you miss it?
If so, here it is
This question is to everyone and anyone who is not one of "Them", has anyone else tried to change their avatar willingly?
DYH, can you do it again?
Have you tried?
It is not necessary for you to understand all of what I'm getting at with those questions.
Please just answer the questions.
It's not necessary for you to understand them either but I would appreciate it if you would answer my question before you try to start a bandwagon against me because you don't understand it or why I asked it.
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Your vested interest in me is disconcerting. You hadn't made one comment about me that I can recall until I mysteriously ended up with this restriction and voted you outright today. Frankly, I think you did this to me and that ability reeks of a mafia cop variation. I bet you're one of those machines underneath! You'll kill me in my sleep won't you?
I asked you to link and provide examples, not just read the posts. Check out my PBPAs if you want a sample.
I'm just leaving this quote on top so everyone who reads this can contemplate the various meanings of the phrase "splitting hairs" before moving to the bulk of my response.
Alright, my first big post expressing an opinion (which you say I never do) and you don't even read it? Even just the analysis section rather than every post? Secondly, think about 477 as it relates to 553 and 559.
No, I read it. You, however, didn't read what I said. I said I need to reread other attacks on atlseal to check just how much original content you injected.
The faking the votecounts thing was reasonable at the time because Sutherlands had screwed up there and the mod hadn't done anything about it to that point.
First of all, I crossed out the last part because the mod couldn't possibly do anything about it YET - he hasn't checked in to see Suth's missed votecount by the time you posted.
Second, it was reasonable to mention, but when Azrael checked in and didn't modkill or penalize Sutherlands, you never returned to the topic again - even though there was now MORE evidence, not less. Could it be because not enough people were interested?
Very interesting point to cut off here. Half of what you included was early game/DATBF portions of the game which by definition, have very little content. Deliberately trying to slant things in your favor for a PBPA is one thing, leaving out 2 whole days of posts is another.
That's a severe misrepresentation. My analysis in fact does NOT include the early game - in fact, your first post in the game was amidst the Xyre wagon, which was very much for real already. Also, I covered 1200+ of the 1900+ (then) posts in the game - over 60%. I'll do more tomorrow, I promise. You have my undivided interest.
What agenda would that be? You are dancing around vague generalities here, so how am I supposed to defend myself from your accusations? Spell out my supposed "agenda" here.
1. Most of the time, you're noncommital
2. Whenever enough traction is created to possibly lynch someone, you commit to action. That's all.
Actually, now that I think about it, why did we stop going after atlseal? He's not confirmed; all he's proved is the ability to role-cop someone. And isn't that normally a mafia role? He easily could have gotten the info he did as scum. The only thing that saved him yesterday was his claim, and he hasn't proved it. And hell, part of his claim was bad - that smilie ability is terribly designed. I can't believe Az would put that into the game just as atl's claimed it.
He claimed a role-block, right? Could we have him use that on someone tonight so they can confirm him in the morning?
Yeah, but Kraj woudl be a silly person to target if he's scum. ANd he has other abilities he needs to demonstrate to us as well.
Quote from Loran »
Or its' because being defensive ISNT a scum tell, and yet is often cited as one by players and can cause a small wagon to get out of control fast.
No... it's def a scum tell. If you don't think it is, you need to analyze your definition of the phrase "scum tell." Because you are probably using a useless definition.
I'm just leaving this quote on top so everyone who reads this can contemplate the various meanings of the phrase "splitting hairs" before moving to the bulk of my response.
No, it's common mafia practice so the defender and others in the thread can easily check back at the posts you are referencing rather than click back through the whole thread to find one specific post.
Quote from Alx »
No, I read it. You, however, didn't read what I said. I said I need to reread other attacks on atlseal to check just how much original content you injected.
So you aren't reading my posts in context then? Because that is what you just basically said.
Quote from Alx »
I didn't say arguing with atlseal is a protown vibe in general. I said that particular post was. The following ones smelled of agenda.
Ok.
Quote from Alx »
Overdefensiveness, your honor! Nothing's wrong, just mentioning it as part of the general PBPA.
Look at the context in which you put those mentions. You mention that the posts following 576 quickly removed the pro-town vibe that you had for me. You also said that my posting smelled of an agenda, so taken in the context of reading, one would reasonably expect you to include those in your agenda charges.
Quote from Alx »
First of all, I crossed out the last part because the mod couldn't possibly do anything about it YET - he hasn't checked in to see Suth's missed votecount by the time you posted.
I stand corrected then, I didn't have a link to go back and analyze exactly how that post fell vis-à-vis Az.
Quote from Alx »
Second, it was reasonable to mention, but when Azrael checked in and didn't modkill or penalize Sutherlands, you never returned to the topic again - even though there was now MORE evidence, not less. Could it be because not enough people were interested?
Or could it be because everyone who has replaced him has done it as well? Other lines of inquiry? Or maybe it is because as a previous mod myself, I could see myself doing something like this (before you say it ZOMG gaming the mod!!!!!!!eleventy111111one!!!!!)
Quote from Alx »
That's a severe misrepresentation. My analysis in fact does NOT include the early game - in fact, your first post in the game was amidst the Xyre wagon, which was very much for real already. Also, I covered 1200+ of the 1900+ (then) posts in the game - over 60%. I'll do more tomorrow, I promise. You have my undivided interest.
Which isn't a misrep at all then. I charged you with only going through Day 1 which is a Day noted for its lack of content. You only included my early game, not the later portions of the game.
Quote from Alx »
I'll cover this topic as part of our night discussion the next time we're scumbuddies in a game. Not now.
Ok, but don't kill me in my sleep this game.
Quote from Alx »
1. Most of the time, you're noncommital
2. Whenever enough traction is created to possibly lynch someone, you commit to action. That's all.
Specific Examples? Your collection of my posts does not provide me anything to defend my actions or talk in concrete details. Fighting vague generalities is an exercise to solipsism, not mafia.
Like i said, id started this review, and got distracted, and after arim's death, i sort of wanted to finish my player analysis. Sadly, i didnt have enough time to finish it per se, and its really useful when im able to do it. If i was able to do it, id be able to see really more clearly about each players' actions so far, and would know if atl, who i felt was the scummiest so far at the time, was really the best target for the day. Too often i can get blinded by one person and miss other's being more scummy, and i was trying to avoid that.
Huh? I said neither was lying about their NAMECLAIMS....not that neither was lying.... Way to misread. Heck, i explained that a post later. How is this bad?
Still a logical fallacy, and I noted that you quickly re-specified in the PBPA
Incidentally, your pbpa is certainly a refresher from zds' biased one. @Rafk, i dont mind him summarising all the posts like that if he gives analysis, as it makes it easier to follow ag's thought process. And he didnt exactly scimp on the analysis. (and no i dont think alx has any case really on ag)
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Moreover, his answers are getting laughable. He didn't care to read the attacks on atlseal ?
Obviously I read them, I didn't yet cross-reference them to what Abbey said on him. It started as an Abbey PBPA, I haven't yet expanded it into "everyone who argued against atlseal" PBPA.
Way to completely ignore everything that has happened so far. No comments about LJ's claim? No thoughts about what we should do next? No nothing at all except to ask a kind of pointless question? Cyan has made his suspicion of LJ well known by this point. His saying "There's only one scum between the 2 of us" is nothing more than a continuation of this. It's like you hadn't read anything up to that point in the thread, and just jumped right in here without understanding the context. "Hey, are you claiming some kind of information that tells you LJ is scum!!!" Um, no. This is kind of bad in my opinion.
Fade will indirectly comment about LJ's claim in his NEXT post, though still in the context of his pushing on Cyan. He seems to say that the claim makes no sense for scum, and that Cyan should realize this if Cyan were town. I guess I don't agree with this. Cyan's point was that LJ might have anticipated the reaction that his claim actually got. That people might have decided NOT to lynch him, for precisely the reason that his claim would seem to make no sense for a scum. In one sense, considering this is exactly what happened, Cyan was correct.
On the other hand, it's also correct that that would have been a bad play for LJ as scum.
Fade then fades away until after Cyan has made his own claim. At least, in #1081 he finally gives his opinion about what to do with LJ. Basically, we should wait awhile, but ultimately we should lynch him today, and he gives a list of preferred targets.
Vampyr was AWOL for a while. In THIS post, he said that his activity should be picking up, but then he doesn't post again for another 3 days. He completely misses LJ's claim, not returning until THIS post after Cyan has claimed. He expresses skepticism of Cyan's claim, which is neither here nor there for what I am looking at.
With regard to LJ, he says:
As for the LJ gambit. Right now I'd be willing to let him live, at least till atlseal is dealt with one way or the other. LJ claims he has something that makes him unattractive to being NK'ed. So the scum are not likely to mess with him. Leaving LJ hang around for a few more game days and seeing what sort of interesting things besides coconuts fall out of the coconut tree when you shake it up. That way his investigative ability could be more useful than a 1 in 22 shot.
That's not completely unreasonable. Coming as late in the game as it did though means it doesn't signify nearly as much.
There's some more stuff about reactions to LJ's full claim. Got a few theories to bat about. Haven't recorded everyone quite yet, but this is most of it. And then I'm checking Hvir reactions.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Okay, the last bit on LJustus is the reactions of the remaining players to his full claim.
My own reaction comes in #944. Basically, I've got many questions about how this ability supposedly works. It sounds really odd to me. Still wonder about what the implementation would have been, but it's a moot point now.
J-Effe IV, #957. Says LJ would be the "correct and safe play" while Cyan would be the riskier but better play. Votes Cyan because he is willing to take this risk. This sounds kind of scummy to me.
Abbey, #959. Provides a wikipedia link to LJ's claimed role. Doesn't say anything else, but promises "more thoughts" later. Also kind of scummy. He does come back later with THIS follow-up post, where he says he is inclined to believe LJ and pointedly refuses to explain why he believes him. Clearly hinting about something, but I don't understand why, and don't much care for the way he's doing it.
Raf, #961. Asks if vigging LJ will trigger his Night Ability in case the NK ability is better than the lynch ability. Dismisses the possibility of a Jester role (which no one was really arguing for). Also wants to know what kind of info the inspect gets. Eh, kind of Neutral reaction to this one.
Dagger, #971. Argh, says "interesting." Wants clarification from LJ that lynching is still what he wants. He sounds appropriately concerned about the situation, and the question is reasonable.
DYH, #982. Can't see LJ making this play as scum. Which is correct, but also the most obvious answer. He makes the same point Hawkeye was making earlier, if LJ were scum, then there must be something in it for the Mafia by his lynch. He also throws in a dig at Cyan, for what Cyan will later say was a mis-type.
Cyan claims in #992. Unfortunately, that means all the remaining reactions are mixtures of reactions to Cyan's claim as well as LJ's claim.
Carrion Pigeons, #1021. Thinks the best play is to lynch Cyan. Thinks the best explanation is that Cyan is trying to get a power role (of sorts) lynched before being exposed himself. Speculates he might even be a GF who wants to get inspected. But then admits he can't quite understand why Cyan would have played it the way he played it, when he could have got the same results by simply going along with LJ's request, as opposed to attacking him. But he can't explain it so he's just going to "leave it behind."
Yeah, I'm not real impressed with this post of CP's either.
atlseal, #1034. He is comfortable with Cyan's claim. Still seems to advocate the LJ lynch, but now favors using the inspect on Grakthis. Nothing objectionable here from where I'm sitting.
And then, finally, we have our resident Lurker-du-jour, Pod, #1080. Says LJ's claim makes him practically a confirmed innocent. Says we should not lynch him, and the scum won't try to NK him, so he's like an unkillable townie.
But then goes on to suggest targets for LJ's investigation - what, in the event we do decide to lynch him, which you don't think we should do - either Grak if LJ wants to investigate a good analyst, or Xyre, if he wants to find scum.
That's pretty weak in my opinion, coming as late in the game as it does. I don't get the impression he has really thought through the claim and come to his own personal conclusion that LJ must be town. Reads more like a knee-jerk reaction at best, or a scum-who-already-knows, at worst. I think Pod overall has been pretty weak in terms of contribution. And I know he did that in his last game also where he was scum (DoTA).
I think that's everyone. Time to do Hvir, and then cross-reference, and see what there is to see.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Yeah, I'm not real impressed with this post of CP's either.
1) You have a bias against those supporting the Cyan wagon.
2) You left out the part where I said that there is no reasonable explanation for all of Cyan's reactions to LJ (and there still isn't, despite your support of him). My estimation of the situation there was based on the assumption that there is something else going on - that means I can afford to leave out the most nonsensical bits if it allows me to come to a reasonable conclusion.
Again, just like with the atlseal issue, we don't know if we'd be better off with Cyan being lynched (and supposedly still alive, even) and Hvir still around, but lynching Cyan was definitely the right play up until the point where you decided to vouch for him.
You act like I have some kind of responsibility to understand everything before I commit to a course of action, and you're wrong. This is Mafia, not Court. All lynches happen without a full understanding of what is going on, and if I wait for a lynch that means I'm not second-guessing myself, then I'll be waiting a long, long time.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
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As good and interesting as I find your (Axel's) analysis to be (I can't wait to see the conclusions), I have to agree with this, and quote it for emphasis. There's too much hindsight and not enough objectivity there.
Hindsight is kind of the point of this. That said, Cyan being a townie is not one of the things we know, and it is not one of the things I have been assuming.
This little review I am doing has made me feel even better about him, however, for reasons stated.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
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Given that he has made his character claim relatively obvious (I actually had to search the thread to see if I'd mentioned the Truman Show before since I've been thinking it for a while), why do you believe he's automatically scummy? And along those lines, what do you think of DYH's Silberman being in given that he doesn't fit with Axel and Cyan's explanations for John Connor and the Terminator being in?
ZDS: I didn't say I thought your behavior was especially scummy, except for the part where you claimed scum. It's that you seem to think that such behavior is scummy that draws my attention. Why would you say that your own behavior is "a classic scum-tell" unless you knew it to be true? Also, I'd just point out that the duration of your attack doesn't make loran any less of a random player than the rest of us. And your point #2 is so self-contradictory as to make me burst out laughing when I read it.
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I'm not sure how I feel about DYH's claim, but DYH hasn't done anything that would draw my suspicion thus far, either, so I'm not that worried about it.
I'm not really feeling the case on Loran.
Lastly, this thread makes my head hurt. So much is going on that I'm finding it hard to keep up on everything, but everyone seems really scattered and unfocused right now. Alot of attention seems to be going towards people and their roleplaying, but, I don't really see how we're benefitting from focusing on this.
This is a continuation from day 1. If you'd deigned to answer questions instead of acting like everyone should just fall over and believe you, this wouldn't have been necessary. And I will note that I have maintained and still maintain that you're non-town, so I don't see the backpedal.
As I said, the vote on Axelrod was just to get him to answer a question. With the question answered (and contrary to what you say, new information was provided), I am satisfied that it is possible he is town, yes. However, your behaviour is too scummy to be excused so easily, plus there's the point you keep glossing over about how come your goal is apparently to kill machines, plus with all the "confirmable" power stuff running around I am getting ever less likely to believe that your little defensive setup is all true and all town, yes.
*DYH hesitantly walks up to Charm Master and pulls at his face. Nope, the skin doesn't budge- not Azrael hiding with a mask.
On the bright side, at least it didn't come off to show metal underneath.
I actually proxied my vote to atlseal awhile ago - which should reset my vote because I asked before this nightmare started if changing the proxy did so. When I ask someone to speak on my behalf they get to do so with a clean slate.
I've been keeping notes - I have a hard time remembering things these days through all the fear. I'll compile them within the next few days for all to see.
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The question is: can we garner anything from looking at those wagons/claims and the way that people reacted to them? I don't actually know the answer to this yet, but I'm going to look. Starting now.
Post #882 is where the ball actually got rolling with respect to LJustus. That was the post where he asked the town a question: If we could know one person's alignment for certain, who would we pick?
Although he said this was not a Cop claim, it didn't take too much brain power to recognize that what he was hinting at was some sort of "day-inspect" type ability.
The current vote count according to Sutherlands was:
11 people respond to LJustus' question. Those responses, in order, were:
Axelrod (#883): Cyan
Xyre (#884): Cyan
Atlseal (#885): Cyan
Alx2 (#886): Cyan
ZDS (#887): Cyan
Raf (#889): Cyan or Xyre (or perhaps Hawkeye7)
Abbey (890): Cyan
DYH (#891): Cyan
Dagger (#892): Cyan
CP (#893): Cyan
Sutherlands (#895): Cyan
Such uniformity. Everybody wanted to know Cyan's alignment. Amazing really. Of those people, however, only two were actually voting for Cyan at the time (ZDS and Xyre). Four people were voting for someone else entirely - Abbey, Alx, and CP were voting for atlseal, Sutherlands was voting for Xyre. The rest were not currently voting (and I do not know who DYH had proxied his vote to at that moment).
I would say that it's somewhat suspicious to not be picking the person who you are actually voting for as the person who's alignment you want to know the most. So fingers of suspicion to those four people.
CP's response in particular seemed a bit off. He said "Cyan" just like everybody else, but then quiped "Now can we get back to lynching atlseal?" As though atlseal was the vote leader or something (he wasn't), or there was some kind of general consensus that we should lynch him (again, there wasn't).
The only other comment came from Sutherlands (another person voting for someone other than Cyan). He said "Cyan. Although right now I think he's highly likely to be mafia." That sentence is something of a non-sequiter. If you think he's highly likely to be scum, why wouldn't you want them inspected? Why say "Although?"
In any event, this is the point where LJustus cryptically votes for himself, in post #898, saying "Trust me on this." Again, it wouldn't take a lot of brain power to recognize that his earlier question and this vote were probably related in some way.
So, how do people react to that? I have to get to that later....
Unless, of course, Neo is the SK.
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O.o;; was that DYH thinking I was a gimmick?
ok, but he hasn't voted for you and is currently...indisposed (not by the game, by life; he's gone camping IIRC) so until you've been unvoted for, I'm supposed to keep it there. As you've apparently found out, I'm not the mod, I don't make the rules...
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1 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7-DYH, Charm_Master
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
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Cyan was the town's largest point of contention at the time (or maybe he still is?). Regardless of whether *I* found him the most suspicious of all or not, knowledge of his alignment seemed to be the most useful in the wider context of the game.
Try harder.
Fixed slightly. Original quote had some errors.
Why? I was confident that atl was scum. There is little point in wanting to know the alignment of someone you hope to lynch, because lynching them gets you their alignment. I'd think you would be more suspicious of the people who wanted to know the alignment of the person they were trying to get lynched - if they were confident enough to lynch Cyan, there shouldn't be enough question about his alignment to let him live just so we can waste an investigation on someone we were planning on killing anyway.
Investigations are for people you don't know about, not people you think are scummy. The scummy ones are the ones you lynch.
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Try reading lurking on MT for a while to learn the true art of 1337 Qu0t3 h4x0r1n6.
Also to repeat myself, try linking some examples here.
Well, this is wrong.
The primary problem is your (and others') degree of confidence. You have no basis to be so confident. Not unless you are a Cop with a Guilty or you got some other inside information. Atlseal had claimed JoaT at this point, yes? There's nothing so fundamentally suspicious about that claim so as to make one automatically disbelieve it.
If you think you got a good read on someone that's fine. But (unless Cop, etc.) I virtually always am second guessing myself and double-checking to make sure that my suspicion is well grounded. If I was given an opportunity to know the alignment of my top target, I would jump on it. Because it is stupid to mislynch when it can be avoided.
This was Day 1. With no dead bodies but Arimnaes, no one had any buisness being so sure of themselves - except scums.
I totally recognize, however, that people do this. People with no inside info. and who should know better routinely declare that a particular player is scum, no questions asked. I am not about to say that your (or anyone's) failure to want to know the alignment of the person you were voting for before they were lynched is a clear sign of scummitude. It is noteworthy, however.
The fact that Xyre and ZDS were consistent about picking the person they were voting for does not exactly clear them either. But it's not suspicious.
Alx's response to this question is better than yours.
This really isn't true, I didn't become the 'largest point of contention' until after all of that went down with LJustus. People named me because, even though Ljustus said 'if you could investigate anyone, who would it be', he specifically named Grakthis and myself, thus those names stuck in people's heads.
208: meaningless
215: "after Xyre's wagon passed, I think Xyre is town". "I don't see a case on ZDS but I'm interested in what Alx has to say about him".
216: banter, mod-vote
240: banter
298: (after ZDS-wagon starts flowing) gives ZDS some tough lovin', but w/o actually expressing opinion.
306: Advocates following Standard Operating Procedure on claims.
311: banter on Wiki article, names
372: "Grak is being Grak". Generic mason strategy discussion, invoking memories of other games.
387: banter w/Loran re: Grak's behavior
477: Again generic mason-strategy discussion, notes atlseal bandwagoning and Sutherlands bad & scummy plan. No vote.
480: mason strategy discussion w/Grak
486: more of the same, says Grak shouldn't have revealed his role info
487: more mason strategy discussion w/Grak
497: amazingly enough, MORE mason strategy discussion w/Grak. Points out a slip, no vote.
502: explains the slip.
553: promises a PBPA of atlseal.
559: the promised PBPA. I need to reread the other players' argument on atl to see just how much originality was injected here. FINALLY, HE VOTES.
562: "seconded"
576: argues with atlseal. THIS IS HIS FIRST POST OF THE GAME THAT ACTUALLY GIVES A SOLID PROTOWN VIBE. Alas, not for long.
590: argues with atlseal again
710: dislikes the atlseal claim
724: supports LJ's dig at atlseal
733: banter
742: banter
763: pushes for atlseal lynch again
(at that point, the town sort-of-decides to leave atlseal alone, Cyan is the focus of attention)
805: He argues with.... you guessed, it, Cyan!
870: semi-agrees with DYH on Sutherlands faking the votecounts
890: conventional position with respect to LJ's question
900: agrees with LJ's plan, votes him.
909: banter with Grak
911: banter
959: wiki-link
973: believes LJ
1007:flavor-talk
1020:flavor-talk
1047:a slight push at, you guessed it, Cyan
1059:wants to lynch Cyan over LJ
1060:votes Cyan
1206:disbelieves Cyan's multi-life claim
Summary:
1. The amount of generic banter, generic strategy discussion and info-dumps is larger than average, but that's not the worse part...
2. The person at the focus of Abbey's attention, the one with whom he argues, the one who he takes digs at, is ALWAYS the one under the town's scrutiny. Always. ZDS-wagon rolls, Abbey argues with ZDS. Town doesn't look at Sutherlands, Abbey doesn't look at Sutherlands, despite expressed interest. Town looks at atlseal, Abbey looks at atlseal. Town looks at Cyan, Abbey looks at Cyan (and never mentions atlseal again...).
In summary, whenever he's not lurking in plain view, his posts have the definite whiff of an AGENDA, pushing toward very specific goals. Confirm vote.
Thanks for that. So helpful to know my playstyle is wrong. Except it isn't.
It has nothing to do with the degree of my confidence. We have to lynch someone, and it is unutterably stupid to let the scummiest player, whoever I interpret that to be, to slide. The percentage play is always to investigate the players you are least sure of.
It isn't like we could clear atl at no cost to us, using that investigation. Using it on him would have meant not using it on someone else - someone that I wasn't sure of. Someone like Cyan.
Are you claiming that by not lynching atl, we would have lynched scum? Because last time I checked, we didn't lynch atl, and we didn't lynch scum. We lynched a townie, even. It is stupid to choose not to lynch the scummiest player in favor of lynching the second scummiest player, no matter how scummy that player actually is.
It has nothing to do with me being sure of myself. It has to do with one player being clearly (as far as I was concerned, obv) more scummy than anyone else. That isn't remotely the same thing. You should lynch the scummiest player every day. That's a given, and there might be exceptions, but "we can spend an investigation on him to clear him" isn't one of them. You can spend an investigation on anyone to clear them.
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Yeah... I don't like how evasive Cyan feels either..... bugging the hell otu of me.
But Axelrod's explanation a few posts later feels good. The dichotomy between those two is driving me nuts.
I agree.. which is wacky, because I can normally deal with complicated threads... but it's like everyone feels the need to poop out role info every 5 minutes.
It's driving me insane, I can't keep my momentum going in one direction.
I still want Loran dead though.
Axelrod is guilty of some bad logic here... he's pointing out that people were wanting to see Cyan investigated even though they were voting for him, but he needs to understand that *I* was pushing heavily on Cyan so investigating Cyan would also tell them something about ME.
A guilty result from a Cop is significantly more useful than an innocent. A strategy that says don't investigate who you are most suspicious of, investigate someone you have no idea about, is crazy. The only reason, in my mind, to forgo investigating the person you think you have the best odds on getting a guilty on, is if you are concerned that a town vig. might pop that player in the Night because he's so scummy looking and make your investigation moot.
How do you get "it's unutterably stupid to let the scummiest player slide" from a proposal that we investigate him? That is not letting him slide?
Again with the unjustified confidence. You have no business being "sure" of anyone, Mr. Triple Voter. And saying that there's a "cost" because we aren't using it on someone else is circular.
That also completely ignores the fact that atl. claimed a very useful role, if it was true. Wouldn't it be worth it to verify him with all those abilities?
Are you really misunderstanding the issue this badly? The theory was that atlseal would have been Cop Cleared at that point. Surely you wouldn't have continued to argue that he was the scummiest and needed to be lynched after that. So then, yes, obviously we would have picked someone else. And our chances of hitting scum would have been rather higher than they would have been had we lynched the Cop cleared person.
We are not "choosing not to lynch the scummiest player in favor of lynching the second scummiest." Why yes, that would have been an odd thing to do.
The issue was, who would you pick to investigate if you could pick anyone? You are arguing that you should not pick the person you think most likely to be scum. You appear to even be arguing that you shouldn't pick the person who you think is the second most likely to be scum. You appear to be saying you should pick someone you have no idea about at all. And I couldn't disagree more. Percentage-wise, that's a poor play.
What's your position on Atlseal right about now anyway?
@Dates: They are significant. You must first learn to free your mind.
I have one more theory to test out at the moment - Vote: PDog
Official Counting of Votes for Day 3 of Matrix Mafia: An Azrael Production
2 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7- Charm_Master
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
1 PDogCrusader - Atlseal
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Tell me about it.
MTGS large games have evolved in a weird direction. People used to play really tightly and make day 1 into a grinding battle to get anyone to give an opinion on anything (Sin City was played in that manner, DYH's role aside, and the town's closedmouthedness probably didn't work in its favour). Somehow we reached a point where half the town claims on day 1 or day 2. This one has been positively restrained by comparison. Plus it seems like there's been some roles where revealing early was strategy (e.g. LJustus' role).
Oh, and re: atl's dates.
1) People, it's obviously a coded message. He wants to be able to reveal something later but prove he was thinking it now.
2) WTF is anyone thinking by trying to break the code in the thread here and now? Do you think atl is scum? No? Then, DO NOT DO IT. This goes double to Charm Master, who appears to be deadset on releasing any information that pops into his head.
He claimed a role-block, right? Could we have him use that on someone tonight so they can confirm him in the morning?
Meanwhile, J-Effe. He hasn't done anything horribly scummy, but a lot of his posts don't make much sense / have bad logic. Here's the most interesting of them:
957
In response I said:
1103:
I then say:
1348
Ahem. But he goes on.
Right. Axel points out how ridiculous this is in 1385.
A lot of it is like that. As far as scummy actions, he goes along with the town a lot (on Cyan and LJ, for instance). He fishes on Xyre a little in 1711 as Fade linked above. He metagames against Xyre in 1734. It's not as bad as I remember, but there's definitely a case there. His posts are just weird a lot.
Because we aren't lynching him.
Duh.
In fact, maybe you have failed to notice, but we've been lynching other people who are not as scummy instead.
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That is not the heart of the issue. That is, like, the spleen of the issue.
Whether or not atlseal has been lynched now is completely and totally irrelevant. We didn't get that inspection LJustus was hocking. We were talking about what we ought to have done with it had we actually gotten it.
You didn't answer my question though, what do you think of atlseal now? Do you still think he ought to be lynched, or does the proven role-Cop ability change your opinion at all? Your last remark appears to indicate that you still think we ought to be lynching him, but I also note you are currently voting for ZDS.
He votes himself in #898. These are the immediate reactions:
Sutherlands: #899 follows suit. Says he'll remove his vote if LJustus says he wants him to. Not scummy.
Abbey: #900. Follows suit. Says he'll bite and see where this is going. Not particularly scummy.
Alx2: #901. Follows suit. Just says "I'm intrigued." Not especially scummy, but not especially townie either.
Xyre: #903. Does not vote LJustus. Says he's "too suspicious" to feel comfortable following. WHOOP WHOOP WHOOP. My first red flag. Since when is Xyre suspicious of LJustus? He hasn't said anything about LJustus the whole game. Now suddenly LJustus is suspicious?
This is the first reaction I can easily see as a scum who's nervous about what LJustus is up to.
I further note that Sutherland brings up the very question about Xyre not having said anything about LJustus before and Xyre ignores him.
atlseal: #904. Asks before he votes whether LJustus is trying only to get to a certain vote-count, or to actually get lynched. Cautious, but perhaps not unreasonably so. It is a valid question even if the somewhat obvious answer is that LJustus would have told us this at the time if he could or if he had wanted us to know.
Pod: #906: asks the same question. Also gives excuse for being absent. Neutral to negative reaction.
Grakthis: #907: makes the point that if LJustus had wanted us to know how many votes he needed he probably would have just told us. Says nothing about the actual request itself and does not vote. Neutral to negative reaction here.
Cyan: #912: Willing to see where this goes - votes LJustus. I'm seeing this as a very townie reaction. Cyan was the overwhelming/unanimous choice of people as target for inspection if we could learn the alignment of anyone we wanted. He had to know that his butt was on the line if LJustus produced. And if Cyan were scum, he would have assumed that LJustus was telling the truth and could produce. This would have been him totally walking with arms outstretched into the lions den.
A townie, on the other hand, would have no fear.
J-Effe IV: #913. Has just replaced in for Wizzpig. Says he would have voted for atlseal but for LJustus' voting himself. Says he'll see where it goes. Votes LJustus. Neutral.
Atlseal will vote in #915. Says he saw LJustus reading the thread and assumes that he can't answer questions about it. This, again, is not an unreasonable reaction.
LJustus proceeds to full-claim in #916. Reactions to this will follow....
What, Kraj?.
What, Hvir?
This high horse of yours ain't looking so good, cp. Remind me- who's this "we" that's been lynching "other people who are not as scummy"? I mean, there's been a lynch of a cult leader and a lynch of someone you voted for yourself...
Or its' because being defensive ISNT a scum tell, and yet is often cited as one by players and can cause a small wagon to get out of control fast.
Like i said, id started this review, and got distracted, and after arim's death, i sort of wanted to finish my player analysis. Sadly, i didnt have enough time to finish it per se, and its really useful when im able to do it. If i was able to do it, id be able to see really more clearly about each players' actions so far, and would know if atl, who i felt was the scummiest so far at the time, was really the best target for the day. Too often i can get blinded by one person and miss other's being more scummy, and i was trying to avoid that.
Had hvir already specificied that he didnt have a set list of locations? I wasn't sure from his claim.
1187 is the first post i noticed cyan claiming multiple lives. Which i felt, and STILL feel is a bit ridiculous, and made me really apt to vote him.
Huh? I said neither was lying about their NAMECLAIMS....not that neither was lying.... Way to misread. Heck, i explained that a post later. How is this bad?
Meh, i stand by my play on this matter. That's all i can say.
Incidentally, your pbpa is certainly a refresher from zds' biased one. @Rafk, i dont mind him summarising all the posts like that if he gives analysis, as it makes it easier to follow ag's thought process. And he didnt exactly scimp on the analysis. (and no i dont think alx has any case really on ag)
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
My apologies for my absence.
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
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Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
No, you misunderstand me. I wasn't talking about atl there. I was talking about any hypothetical person who might happen to be the scummiest player at a particular point in time. If we choose to keep The Scummiest Player(TM) alive so that we can investigate him, then we are not lynching him, which is poor play. Case in point: we kept atl alive so we could investigate him, and thus we failed to lynch the scummiest player at the time.
And no, I do not still think that atl is the scummiest player, but that does not mean it was inappropriate at the time to call for his lynch. I do not even think he was the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, but we aren't talking about the end of Day 1, we're talking about the time when LJustus claimed, and at that time, atl was The Scummiest Player, and my opinions were both valid and consistent.
@Raf: I don't think we have lynched badly, and I didn't mean to give that impression. I've supported both lynches at the times when they were relevant, but that doesn't mean that other potential lynches (such as atl's) would not also have been appropriate. I can't say whether we are now better off with atl alive that we would be if Alice was alive. But at the time when atl's 'wagon was relevant, Hvir wasn't even on the radar, and atl was definitely, as far as I was concerned, lynchworthy. It may or may not have actually turned out better, but it would have been better play to just kill atl then and move on.
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Contrast with Spoon in #919. He also asks a question, but the vibe here is different. Genuinely seems to be trying to determine the best course of action. This may be a bit of my own bias showing now as I've not been particularly suspicious of Spoon regardless.
Grakthis' reaction is in #920. As with most things Grakthis, it's a mixed bag. Appears to believe the claim without any difficulty, to the point of saying we could probably write LJustus off as town now. Which is very quick to accept. Also appears to indicate that at least part of the reason for his easy acceptance is his opinion of LJustus' skill. He's not smart enough to be faking something like this. These are kind of scummish reasons to believe someone. A scum who knows it's a townie telling the truth could use reasons like these easily.
He also, however, says the plan "bugs" him, because he doesn't like the idea of lynching an almost confirmed townie just to clear another townie. And that's not an unreasonable position to take in as much as it's kind of like a push in terms of the overall town/mafia ratio. The overall effect is kind of neutral for me.
Cyan's reaction, in #921 further cements my opinion that he's not acting at all the way a scum would react. He expresses disbelief. He says it smells like a gambit to him (if he's scum he knows it's not a gambit, and furthermore, he knows he's the one going to get burned by it). He subsequently will continue to push for LJustus' lynch (which is what LJ wants) but is doing it because he thinks LJ is bluffing.
Absolute Balls of Steel if he's scum. I don't believe it.
First Unvote comes from Alx2 in #922. He says the inspection will be more valuable later when there are fewer players. Plus, if LJ has another ability that kicks in if he's night-killed, the scum can't even stop him without facing whatever that is. Win-Win. On the whole, this is not an unreasonable position to take. I can't really fault it. He also accepts the whole thing rather easily without any apparent suspicion, but it's not that bad.
First to actively support the "plan" is ZDS in #923. I do not really follow his logic here. He advocates lynching LJ and using the free inspect on Cyan. If Cyan comes up scum, then Atlseal can vig him, getting rid of said scum and presumably verifying atlseal at the same time. But if Cyan comes up town, he wants Atlseal to protect Cyan? And seems to think that Atlseal will still be able to use his inspect ability. Then he also directs the Town Watcher to watch (atlseal) in case the Mafia attempt to RB him, or in case a scum atlseal attempts to claim being RB. Seems to think Cyan's suspicion of LJ proves even more how he's scum. Which it doesn't.
This one gives me a negative vibe. A scum ZDS who knew Cyan was town would probably be happy if we lynched a townie and all the town got was a free inspect on Cyan out of it. The scum would probably consider that about as good as they were going to get, and better than having an actual scum inspected.
Hawkeye's reaction (or lack of reaction) in #924 is also noteworthy. He enters the thread and addresses a completely side issue not relevant to anything that is happening. The part where Grakthis says he thinks LJ isn't smart enough to come up with something like this as scum. Hawkeye defends LJ's intelligence.
Actually this post appears to be straddling the fence quite a bit. On the one hand, he's saying that LJ is smart enough to do this as scum, especially if he had the chance to talk to his fellow scum before the game, but then says that there must be something else in it for the scum if it is some kind of gambit. Because on it's face, the scum would not seem to get anything out of it.
So, yeah, what was your opinion again? What should we actually do in this situation? Negative reaction to this one.
Hvir pipes up with a Vote Cyan in #926. Man, are we sure he wasn't scum?
Xyre and Sutherlands are having their own private little argument at this point and Xyre respond to Suth. in #930. The only comment relevant to the LJ situation is the first one where Xyre says he was seriously thinking that LJ might have a Jester type role, and is still "uneasy" about lynching him. This does not make me feel any better about Xyre.
Xyre then makes a completely incorrect point (logically speaking) that LJ's claim makes him a likely target for a Mafia Night-Kill. Notwithstanding that this is what apparently happened, there is no way that LJ's claim would make him a likely Night target. Scum, assuming he was speaking truth, would have been scared to target him. Cyan makes that point in #933.
Cyan continues to push for the LJ lynch (Balls of STEEL if scum) and several people think this makes Cyan more suspicious looking. One is Sutherlands in #936.
Gotta stop for now. More later.
This question is to everyone and anyone who is not one of "Them", has anyone else tried to change their avatar willingly?
DYH, can you do it again?
Have you tried?
It is not necessary for you to understand all of what I'm getting at with those questions.
Please just answer the questions.
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I asked you to link and provide examples, not just read the posts. Check out my PBPAs if you want a sample.
Alright, my first big post expressing an opinion (which you say I never do) and you don't even read it? Even just the analysis section rather than every post? Secondly, think about 477 as it relates to 553 and 559.
Your last point here is argumentum ad populum. You say that arguing with atlseal is a pro-town vibe, then what is wrong with continuing to pursue it?
He became the focus of the thread. If I had said nothing with regard to him, then I fall under your "lurking" label instead.
The faking the votecounts thing was reasonable at the time because Sutherlands had screwed up there and the mod hadn't done anything about it to that point. Secondly, what was wrong with holding the conventional position with regards to LJ's question or voting for him?
Very interesting point to cut off here. Half of what you included was early game/DATBF portions of the game which by definition, have very little content. Deliberately trying to slant things in your favor for a PBPA is one thing, leaving out 2 whole days of posts is another.
I believe I addressed where I stood on Day 2 with atlseal when he gave us the cult. It does nothing for his alignment whatsoever as the mafia have just as big an interest in killing the cult, but a dead cult is a Good Thing (TM) for the town.
What should I have been talking about when the town was focused on someone, pray tell?
What agenda would that be? You are dancing around vague generalities here, so how am I supposed to defend myself from your accusations? Spell out my supposed "agenda" here.
Finally, you didn't in your whole post summary, point out somewhere, or even in one post that I did something scummy. Your only two comments outside of summarizing your view of them were that you didn't read the one PBPA that you included in your range of examined posts, and that 576 gave off a pro-town vibe in your mind.
Odds & Ends
I saw loran's response but I'll address loran's response tomorrow during work when I have had a full night's rest. To answer whoever asked me about Grak, I am not confident enough to say anything yet as Day 2 was pretty much a slam-dunk. Ask me again Day 4.
Are you always afraid of what you don't or cant understand? Or do you just pretend to be?
I asked you a question too ZDS. Did you miss it?
If so, here it is
It's not necessary for you to understand them either but I would appreciate it if you would answer my question before you try to start a bandwagon against me because you don't understand it or why I asked it.
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Simpson's Mafia - best use of character
Mtgnews Mafia Mafia - Town Madman
Mythos Mafia: the Dunwich Massacre Town MVP
English Literature Mafia Town MVP
Best Role-Playing Sin City Mafia
Werewolf Mafia - Mafia MVP
Doctor Mafia - Mafia MVP
Mafia: Escape from the Cylons - Town MVP
Lost Mafia - Co SK Winner with Kops
Random Mafia 3 - Town MVP
Your vested interest in me is disconcerting. You hadn't made one comment about me that I can recall until I mysteriously ended up with this restriction and voted you outright today. Frankly, I think you did this to me and that ability reeks of a mafia cop variation. I bet you're one of those machines underneath! You'll kill me in my sleep won't you?
Vote: Hawkeye7
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I'm just leaving this quote on top so everyone who reads this can contemplate the various meanings of the phrase "splitting hairs" before moving to the bulk of my response.
No, I read it. You, however, didn't read what I said. I said I need to reread other attacks on atlseal to check just how much original content you injected.
I didn't say arguing with atlseal is a protown vibe in general. I said that particular post was. The following ones smelled of agenda.
Overdefensiveness, your honor! Nothing's wrong, just mentioning it as part of the general PBPA.
First of all, I crossed out the last part because the mod couldn't possibly do anything about it YET - he hasn't checked in to see Suth's missed votecount by the time you posted.
Second, it was reasonable to mention, but when Azrael checked in and didn't modkill or penalize Sutherlands, you never returned to the topic again - even though there was now MORE evidence, not less. Could it be because not enough people were interested?
That's a severe misrepresentation. My analysis in fact does NOT include the early game - in fact, your first post in the game was amidst the Xyre wagon, which was very much for real already. Also, I covered 1200+ of the 1900+ (then) posts in the game - over 60%. I'll do more tomorrow, I promise. You have my undivided interest.
I'll cover this topic as part of our night discussion the next time we're scumbuddies in a game. Not now.
1. Most of the time, you're noncommital
2. Whenever enough traction is created to possibly lynch someone, you commit to action. That's all.
Yeah, but Kraj woudl be a silly person to target if he's scum. ANd he has other abilities he needs to demonstrate to us as well.
No... it's def a scum tell. If you don't think it is, you need to analyze your definition of the phrase "scum tell." Because you are probably using a useless definition.
No, it's common mafia practice so the defender and others in the thread can easily check back at the posts you are referencing rather than click back through the whole thread to find one specific post.
So you aren't reading my posts in context then? Because that is what you just basically said.
Ok.
Look at the context in which you put those mentions. You mention that the posts following 576 quickly removed the pro-town vibe that you had for me. You also said that my posting smelled of an agenda, so taken in the context of reading, one would reasonably expect you to include those in your agenda charges.
I stand corrected then, I didn't have a link to go back and analyze exactly how that post fell vis-à-vis Az.
Or could it be because everyone who has replaced him has done it as well? Other lines of inquiry? Or maybe it is because as a previous mod myself, I could see myself doing something like this (before you say it ZOMG gaming the mod!!!!!!!eleventy111111one!!!!!)
Which isn't a misrep at all then. I charged you with only going through Day 1 which is a Day noted for its lack of content. You only included my early game, not the later portions of the game.
Ok, but don't kill me in my sleep this game.
Specific Examples? Your collection of my posts does not provide me anything to defend my actions or talk in concrete details. Fighting vague generalities is an exercise to solipsism, not mafia.
Yours hasn't and the charge has been brought up against you? :dunno:
Ok, I can understand that.
Yes he did already, in his claiming post 1388 and then further clarified in 1391.
Alright.
Still a logical fallacy, and I noted that you quickly re-specified in the PBPA
And I still find it suspicious.
Thanks for the compliment, I guess.
Teh Vote Count-ness
2 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7- Charm_Master, DYH
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
1 PDogCrusader - Atlseal
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Obviously I read them, I didn't yet cross-reference them to what Abbey said on him. It started as an Abbey PBPA, I haven't yet expanded it into "everyone who argued against atlseal" PBPA.
Yes
No, the reading's fine. I didn't start WRITING (the PBPA) after day 1.
Overall, you seem to be trying too hard.
People who have yet to check in = fadeblue; Vampyr.
HERE is fadeblue's next post.
What?
Way to completely ignore everything that has happened so far. No comments about LJ's claim? No thoughts about what we should do next? No nothing at all except to ask a kind of pointless question? Cyan has made his suspicion of LJ well known by this point. His saying "There's only one scum between the 2 of us" is nothing more than a continuation of this. It's like you hadn't read anything up to that point in the thread, and just jumped right in here without understanding the context. "Hey, are you claiming some kind of information that tells you LJ is scum!!!" Um, no. This is kind of bad in my opinion.
Fade will indirectly comment about LJ's claim in his NEXT post, though still in the context of his pushing on Cyan. He seems to say that the claim makes no sense for scum, and that Cyan should realize this if Cyan were town. I guess I don't agree with this. Cyan's point was that LJ might have anticipated the reaction that his claim actually got. That people might have decided NOT to lynch him, for precisely the reason that his claim would seem to make no sense for a scum. In one sense, considering this is exactly what happened, Cyan was correct.
On the other hand, it's also correct that that would have been a bad play for LJ as scum.
Fade then fades away until after Cyan has made his own claim. At least, in #1081 he finally gives his opinion about what to do with LJ. Basically, we should wait awhile, but ultimately we should lynch him today, and he gives a list of preferred targets.
Vampyr was AWOL for a while. In THIS post, he said that his activity should be picking up, but then he doesn't post again for another 3 days. He completely misses LJ's claim, not returning until THIS post after Cyan has claimed. He expresses skepticism of Cyan's claim, which is neither here nor there for what I am looking at.
With regard to LJ, he says:
That's not completely unreasonable. Coming as late in the game as it did though means it doesn't signify nearly as much.
There's some more stuff about reactions to LJ's full claim. Got a few theories to bat about. Haven't recorded everyone quite yet, but this is most of it. And then I'm checking Hvir reactions.
My own reaction comes in #944. Basically, I've got many questions about how this ability supposedly works. It sounds really odd to me. Still wonder about what the implementation would have been, but it's a moot point now.
J-Effe IV, #957. Says LJ would be the "correct and safe play" while Cyan would be the riskier but better play. Votes Cyan because he is willing to take this risk. This sounds kind of scummy to me.
Abbey, #959. Provides a wikipedia link to LJ's claimed role. Doesn't say anything else, but promises "more thoughts" later. Also kind of scummy. He does come back later with THIS follow-up post, where he says he is inclined to believe LJ and pointedly refuses to explain why he believes him. Clearly hinting about something, but I don't understand why, and don't much care for the way he's doing it.
Raf, #961. Asks if vigging LJ will trigger his Night Ability in case the NK ability is better than the lynch ability. Dismisses the possibility of a Jester role (which no one was really arguing for). Also wants to know what kind of info the inspect gets. Eh, kind of Neutral reaction to this one.
Dagger, #971. Argh, says "interesting." Wants clarification from LJ that lynching is still what he wants. He sounds appropriately concerned about the situation, and the question is reasonable.
DYH, #982. Can't see LJ making this play as scum. Which is correct, but also the most obvious answer. He makes the same point Hawkeye was making earlier, if LJ were scum, then there must be something in it for the Mafia by his lynch. He also throws in a dig at Cyan, for what Cyan will later say was a mis-type.
Cyan claims in #992. Unfortunately, that means all the remaining reactions are mixtures of reactions to Cyan's claim as well as LJ's claim.
Carrion Pigeons, #1021. Thinks the best play is to lynch Cyan. Thinks the best explanation is that Cyan is trying to get a power role (of sorts) lynched before being exposed himself. Speculates he might even be a GF who wants to get inspected. But then admits he can't quite understand why Cyan would have played it the way he played it, when he could have got the same results by simply going along with LJ's request, as opposed to attacking him. But he can't explain it so he's just going to "leave it behind."
Yeah, I'm not real impressed with this post of CP's either.
atlseal, #1034. He is comfortable with Cyan's claim. Still seems to advocate the LJ lynch, but now favors using the inspect on Grakthis. Nothing objectionable here from where I'm sitting.
And then, finally, we have our resident Lurker-du-jour, Pod, #1080. Says LJ's claim makes him practically a confirmed innocent. Says we should not lynch him, and the scum won't try to NK him, so he's like an unkillable townie.
But then goes on to suggest targets for LJ's investigation - what, in the event we do decide to lynch him, which you don't think we should do - either Grak if LJ wants to investigate a good analyst, or Xyre, if he wants to find scum.
That's pretty weak in my opinion, coming as late in the game as it does. I don't get the impression he has really thought through the claim and come to his own personal conclusion that LJ must be town. Reads more like a knee-jerk reaction at best, or a scum-who-already-knows, at worst. I think Pod overall has been pretty weak in terms of contribution. And I know he did that in his last game also where he was scum (DoTA).
I think that's everyone. Time to do Hvir, and then cross-reference, and see what there is to see.
1) You have a bias against those supporting the Cyan wagon.
2) You left out the part where I said that there is no reasonable explanation for all of Cyan's reactions to LJ (and there still isn't, despite your support of him). My estimation of the situation there was based on the assumption that there is something else going on - that means I can afford to leave out the most nonsensical bits if it allows me to come to a reasonable conclusion.
Again, just like with the atlseal issue, we don't know if we'd be better off with Cyan being lynched (and supposedly still alive, even) and Hvir still around, but lynching Cyan was definitely the right play up until the point where you decided to vouch for him.
You act like I have some kind of responsibility to understand everything before I commit to a course of action, and you're wrong. This is Mafia, not Court. All lynches happen without a full understanding of what is going on, and if I wait for a lynch that means I'm not second-guessing myself, then I'll be waiting a long, long time.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
2 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7- Charm_Master, DYH
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
1 PDogCrusader - Atlseal
Currently Playing:
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RBWModern - Mardu PyromancerWBR
RLegacy - Good Old Fashioned BurnR
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Unverified. Only CP's final two votes should have counted.
Also, replacements, players in limbo, dead players, and dead moderator personas are all immune to votes.
For the moment.
Hindsight is kind of the point of this. That said, Cyan being a townie is not one of the things we know, and it is not one of the things I have been assuming.
This little review I am doing has made me feel even better about him, however, for reasons stated.
Vote Count of Ultimate Destiny
2 Alx-Cyan, ZDS
2 Hawkeye7- Charm_Master, DYH
3 Loran16- Abbeygargoyle, grakthis, J-Effe IV
1 AbbeyGargoyle - Alx2
1 ZDS - CP
1 Axelrod RafaelK
Currently Playing:
GBStandard - Golgari Safari MidrangeBG
RBWModern - Mardu PyromancerWBR
RLegacy - Good Old Fashioned BurnR
Clan Contest 3 Mafia - Mafia Co-MVP