MTG Salvation

I want Az to clear himself now. After that, there will be (left uncleared):

DYH (Watcher, seems very likely town)
Bateleur (arguing well)

And Creampuffeater and RafaelK, the probable scum candidates.

I don't feel totally comfortable listing Bateleur as "cleared", I just have a bad feeling about it, as it gives him a free pass. What I do like, however, is that regardless of whether he is town or scum, he can't let our cop die tonight. It's a guarantee that we get another investigation, on one of our four remaining scum candidates (likely CPE or RafaelK). There is quite a good chance that we will find scum. If we don't, then one of CPE or Raf is probably cleared, and we can ALMOST assume the other one is scum.

Sounds good. But it starts with...

Azrael, clear yourself now.

I'm in agreement with ZDS and HC here on all topics.

If Az is capable of 'clearing' himself now, he needs to do it.

Quote from Hunted Charlie

OK, Azrael, prove yourself now. Something isn't
right here.

I'd certainly like to, but it's impossible for today. Luckily I don't think it will be necessary.

As I've already stated, I'm the nine-year old girl who accidentally mistyped a PM that led to Crippled Fist's death. Ever since Crippled Fist's death, I've been terrified of accidentally causing another death, and I've devoted myself to helping others avoid their grammar mistakes. And because I'm not eager to make another fatal error myself, I'm skittish about posting in sentences.

My full abilities are these:

1. If I correct a player's grammar, my vote counts double against that player.
2. If I correct a player's grammar three times in one day, that player's vote counts one less against me. I can use this ability on multiple players, I believe. I'll double-check that with Arim immediately.
3. If I give up my vote-based abilities for the day, I regain the capacity to type in English.

So when I say I can prove my alignment, I mean that I can prove my ability, and my ability would make me completely unlynchable if I wished, in addition to the double vote that we almost saw earlier. So unless you believe that Arim would give a mafia agent a double-vote and immunity to lynch, I'm not mafia. Neutral, maybe, but not mafia.

As a townie I haven't considered the voting abilities important to keep online for protection because I haven't been under a lot of scrutiny. At the same time, I wanted to have fun with the post restriction and mislead the scum about my true capabilities and value as an analyst. If they saw me as lesser value townie because I couldn't speak, then I had a higher chance of avoiding a NK and staying alive until the end-game where I'm at my best.

Back on day two, when I started double-voting against Bateleur and Arimnaes briefly counted my vote as double before correcting it, it was because we had both forgotten that I had chosen to activate talk-mode for that day, and my post-restriction wasn't actually binding at the time.

So, here's the situation as I see it:

Quote from Bateleur »

As it happens, you were the player I already had pegged as Mafia, but denying the redirection makes things a lot simpler.

Nice try on the vampire thing, but you have a teeny weeny problem there - the Town has time to kill me tomorrow if they need to and tonight I'm using my last pint of blood protecting ZDS.

Bye bye scum.

Vote: Azrael

Bat is a big fat lying scum with his back in a corner now that his name and the mind-control link has been blown. He's milking his doctor claim for all it's worth, and for all I know, it might be mostly-true. But let's look at the evidence.

Rafk and I have been on him for his play since the start, and even his claim yesterday hasn't quite absolved him of that. He's taken a lot of questionable stances and positions, shifting around like crazy on CPE and Xyre, all the things that I pointed out in the smiley PBPA earlier.

Today, he used a fairly questionable process of elimination to somehow narrow down the "neutral redirector" to me, without taking into account that someone who has already claimed (not to mention himself, since Dr. Dracula is the role most likely to control that ability) could be responsible.

And I really, really can't emphasize the Doctor Dracula point enough. The flavor screams mind-controlling scum. Does anyone here recall the end-game of Random Mafia 2?


I suspect his move today was an attempt to pick off or gain information on a vulnerable-seeming analyst who had expressed a number of suspicions of him. After the counter-attack, he gambled on cutting his losses and taking another townie down with him before he died. But with the capacity to prove my ability and alignment 100%, the town's best odds are to lynch bat, and follow up on me tomorrow. As he correctly said, the town can afford to mislynch assuming we don't have a bazillion scum. The more conservative play, and the play that the evidence justifies, is to lynch mr. scummalicious and allow me to re-prove my multi-vote and to prove my vote nullification tomorrow. And if necessary I'm sure I can choose not to talk and prove both abilities the following day as well, if the town is worried it's a scum-faked one-time effect.

Vote Bateleur.

Beyond that, I'd like to hear the case that he's refered to several times without posting.

Just received an invitation to dinner from some from friends, so I've got to run for now, but I should be able to get back on later and expand on my analysis and reply to questions.

interesting. I'm not sure what to think of this yet, so I'll start by questioning the facts of your story.

On Day 2, you claim you lost your vote abilities by talking, thus why your double-vote didn't work? When did you talk on Day 2, I never saw that? And if that was true, then why would you keep posting in smilies?

Quote from Azrael »

Back on day two, when I started double-voting against Bateleur and Arimnaes briefly counted my vote as double before correcting it, it was because we had both forgotten that I had chosen to activate talk-mode for that day

I see. So this implies talk mode is something you explicitly activate, since you had not at that point actually posted without using smilies.

Which is interesting, because that means your post #927 makes very little sense. Either by that point you had activated "type in English" mode or you had not. So...

* If you had, why was the post not in English?
* If you had not, why not correct someone's grammar and double-vote?

Yep, I checked, you've never successfully used your double-voting power. So in fact what you're doing here is trying to exploit a GM slip to clear yourself. Oh, and claiming lynch-proof except today - how convenient!

(And don't bother arguing your grammar corrections have to be valid. To start with that would be a nightmare to check and secondly the fact that you've claimed to be lynch-proof contradicts this anyway.)

If you lynch me today you'll have broken some kind of record for stupidity since it opens you up to losing your investigation result for tonight. Besides, if my claim's shady you should blame arimnaes. Azrael, by contrast, has to have misplayed for his claim to be real.

If one of RafaelK or CPE is cleared by investigation tonight then I'm happy enough to be lynched tomorrow since the town then wins the day after.

half of his points are just him playing Mr I'mSmarterThanYou

Who's playing?

Agreed; I don't think Bateleur is the play for today. Killing the uncounter-claimed doctor in light of an exposed cop isn't real bright.

One question before I proceed:

@Az: Does your avoiding a lynch end the day?

Quote from Disrupt_Your_Hymn

@Az: Does your avoiding a lynch end the day?

It's not a special power. He avoids a lynch by leaving everyone else with no ability to vote for him. So no, obviously it doesn't "end the day".

Good point, I fail at reading walls of text.

I asked because I was thinking about the advantages of potentially going with a no lynch since we'd have a doc protect, a cop result, a watching result, and HC and Az could both use their abilities the following day. But then I got to thinking, of all those, I'm likely to buy the farm, significantly reducing the gains (and subsequently my enjoyment of said game ).

I'm still having major issues with the RafK kill and the "mind control". The timing implications from that are rather complicated, not to mention the fact that I was redirected that night. My gut is screaming at me that RafK submitted that kill via PM, but wrote "daykill: Kenji" in the thread for show.

I think we gain more by pursuing someone who is essentially either vanilla or deadly (RafK), than we do chancing a lynch on potentially a double-voting, unlynchable townie (Az), or a doctor (bat).

I still have no idea what to make of CPE and his claims.

Thoughts?

Quote from Disrupt_Your_Hymn

My gut is screaming at me that RafK submitted that kill via PM, but wrote "daykill: Kenji" in the thread for show.

Had he done that I very much doubt he'd have picked Sutherlands as his target.

Quote from Disrupt_Your_Hymn

I'm still having major issues with the RafK kill and the "mind control". The timing implications from that are rather complicated, not to mention the fact that I was redirected that night. My gut is screaming at me that RafK submitted that kill via PM, but wrote "daykill: Kenji" in the thread for show.

That's actually a very interesting idea, which I need to keep in mind for future reference should it ever come in handy Obviously any counter to that would be kind of WIFOM, but I leave people to decide for themselves whether it's particularly likely for there to be a scum with a daykill, and for that scum to use the daykill blind on day (and on Sutherlands of all people).

I think we gain more by pursuing someone who is essentially either vanilla or deadly (RafK), than we do chancing a lynch on potentially a double-voting, unlynchable townie (Az), or a doctor (bat).

Or on a watcher, particularly given that it doesn't really marry up to the flavour. Everyone else has flavour for why their role has the flavour it has. Why is Miho a straight watcher

Primarily because there's really no reason for me to disclose anything to the contrary.

Even if that is or isn't the case, Kenji's role didn't really exist in RTK, right?

Alright guys, this is one of those really, really important posts that it would help to read closely from top to bottom.

Bat is trying to pull some dodgy stuff here, and he needs called out on it. I'm also going to try to take the legs out from the so-called case against me.

Quote from bateleur

Yep, I checked, you've never successfully used your double-voting power. So in fact what you're doing here is trying to exploit a GM slip to clear yourself.

There's an interesting theory. So, I double-voted and requested a vote count without having the ability and Arimnaes accidentally counted it as double before correcting it?

Yeah...

This requires a response.

We have documented evidence of double-vote potential from Arimnaes.

While a proven double vote in itself doesn't clear me as town, it means that Arimnaes would have to have carefully balanced the setup to compensate for it. In a mini, that's more difficult. A double vote in a mini is enough to partially clear a player on its own strength.

Quote from Bateleur »

Oh, and claiming lynch-proof except today - how convenient!

No, I've been routinely activating my English-speaking capacity over my vote-capacity, except for on day one. After proving my ability yesterday, and with the end-game still a lynch or so away, lynch deterrence isn't important for me as a townie to possess. Being able to abandon my cover and nail a scum in an emergency, if the job wasn't getting done, was more important than using the double-vote.

Especially once it was briefly confirmed by Arimnaes in-thread.

Quote from Hunted Charlie

interesting. I'm not sure what to think of this yet, so I'll start by questioning the facts of your story.

On Day 2, you claim you lost your vote abilities by talking, thus why your double-vote didn't work? When did you talk on Day 2, I never saw that? And if that was true, then why would you keep posting in smilies?

I chose not to talk on any of the previous days, but I wanted to retain the ability to do so if necessary.

The reasons for keeping silent I mentioned in my previous post. If I kept quiet, I would appear less of a threat to the scum than if I were fully-functioning, and would be more likely to survive to the end-game and act as a self-clearing mason. Plus I enjoyed the restriction and I was doing fairly well at working within the bounds of the handicap and communicating what I was thinking.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

*quoted for emphasis*

So, who's against a plan of lynching Az then following with Bate (or someone else depending on my or DYH's results) ?

One way or another we've got Bat nailed for sure, and he's not getting away for much longer, so the town will have good chances either way. That's the good news.

The amusing thing is, I'm not even sure what the case on me is actually supposed to be. The only thing Bat has brought up is process of elimination, that given the list of claims, no one else could possibly be scum except for me, CPE, and Rafk, according to him.

That is WEAK.

That's important, so I'll repeat it once more. The only "evidence" bateleur has brought up against me is that he has preemptively cleared almost everyone else. That's his entire case, that no one else could possibly be scum so it must be Az, the mysterious smiley-poster who no one had a read on.

And if he manages to trick the town into thinking they'll get another cop investigation out of lynching the guy without a case against him and with a half-proven double-vote over him, then he's going to laugh all the way to the fake-doctor bank.

1. We have to look mostly at which player is most likely to be scum in this scenario, not on the potential gain or loss. If we do the latter, we're playing out of fear, instead of the evidence.

2. The evidence points to Bateleur. Why?

He's claimed Dr. Dracula while we have a mind-controller running around, his MO is decidedly scummy, and it's certainly not beyond Arimnaes' ken to assign the scum a doctor.

His case against me is a plywood house. CPE, Raf, and myself are not the only possibilities for scum in the town. That deserves a gigantic fricking rolleyes. I could even argue that I don't even belong to the uncleared category of players to begin with. And his entire case hinges on that 100% absolutely-dead-wrong assumption.

Then take a look at the long train of evidence that forced him to claim in the first place. He's the scummiest player left in the game, and he's survived this far only because he's a strong enough player that he can downplay his mistakes.

3. Even if we're going to play to minimize our losses instead of on evidence, we will lose our cop and a cop investigation with either choice. And because I'm self-clearing and Bat is not, the town stands more to lose from the scenario in which I'm town than it does from the scenario in which Bat is town.

If I'm town (or neutral) and I prove my ability tomorrow we gain a self-cleared mason and an analyst. That's on par or slightly better than a cop investigation.

If Bat is not town and we lynch Az as town (again), the mafia is going to off ZDS tonight while they have the chance. We will not get another cop investigation. And we won't have a self-cleared mason either.

Both choices offer an equal chance of reward-
1. Azrael is town=town gains self-clearing mason OR cop investigation.
2. Bat is town=town gains cop investigation.

But it's actually more risky to lynch the player claiming self-mason than the player claiming doc-
1. Azrael is town=Town loses self-cleared mason, mafia NK the cop.
2. Bat is town=Town loses suspicious doctor, mafia NK the cop.

So even if you play it incorrectly based on risk/reward, Bateleur is still the town's best play. He's been muddying the waters like a fiend in a last-ditch attempt to dodge the lynch, and it's a testament to his skill that he's made it this long and people are still trusting his arguments. But if the town thinks this situation all the way through, it's over for him.

Bottom line is, the evidence points against Bat. We don't gain anything by letting him live another day. Tomorrow, I clear myself or I hang, and I'm going to clear myself. Today we ought to lynch Bat, kill the mind-controlling scum, and get on with winning the game as cleanly and quickly as possible.

Don't let the doctor-claim blind you to the correct play. Look at the evidence. Kill Bat today, clear me tomorrow.
Vote Bateleur.

[/Azrael]

Quote from Azrael

Both choices offer an equal chance of reward-
1. Azrael is town=town gains self-clearing mason OR cop investigation.
2. Bat is town=town gains cop investigation.

This line of argument seems to be designed not to lynch me so much as to guide the town towards choosing "neither" and going for CPE or Raf today.

From this I conclude that you are the redirector and plan to redirect my doc attempt away from ZDS, then kill him. Tomorrow, you then tag and bag me for not being a doc, amirite?

Ok, so that was pretty much an enormous wall of text. Here's the condensed version for additional overkill.

Azrael vs. Bateleur Player-to-Player Comparison
A. Claim

1. Azrael-Claimed Nine-Year-Old girl, grammar-based double voter and potential unlynchable, post-restricted. Double-vote potential briefly confirmed by Arimnaes by accident.

2. Bateleur-Claimed Dr. Dracula, restricted doctor, no counter-claim. Flavor of character could be tied to mind-controller role responsible for Sutherlands' death.

Outcome-Elements of the 9-year-old claim have been partially confirmed by Arimnaes. Dracula's doctor capacity is pretty verified due to the lack of a counter-claim. However the 9-year old girl claim has the capacity to completely self-clear itself. The Dracula claim does not. And, the flavor of Dracula matches that activity of a known townie-killer who is still at large.

B. Behavioral Evidence

1. Bateleur-Inconsistency on Xyre and CPE question, highlighted in the PBPA at #758. A very, very strange unvote of CPE. Mystifying early position on ZDS, aggressive versus Rafk and skeptical of his mind-control claim. Strange reluctance to cooperate and reveal that he'd targeted me with the blacking out MO, which led to his forced claim.

Today, he radically flip-flopped from his previous stance on me as an unknown quantity from only yesterday. Then he put forward a questionable process of elimination which inexplicably cleared several members of the town, labeled me as the redirector when my vote was already public, and which focused attention on several targets who have expressed suspicions of him earlier in the game.

2. Azrael-Behavioral record mostly in smilies. No pressure until day. Accidentally hammered Xyre.

Outcome-The only mark against me is Bateleur's setup speculation. Bateleur himself has a long record of scum tells, and has been dancing on the edge of a lynch.

C. Risk/Reward Analysis of Lynch

1. Azrael
a. Risk-Loss of self-clearing mason and loss of cop investigation.
b. Reward-Self-clearing mason OR cop investigation.

2. Bateleur
a. Risk-Loss of unconfirmed partial doctor and loss of cop investigation.
b. Reward-Cop investigation.

Outcome-The potential gain from lynching either is the same: we get another cleared townie. But the risk of lynching a self-clearing mason and letting the a cop die as well is greater than the risk of losing an uncleared doctor and letting the cop die as well.

D. Conclusion-

Bat's claim implicates him as the missing redirection killer. He can't be fully cleared. His behavior has drawn fire for several days, and he was forced to claim on account of it. He is also a safer lynch based on the claimed abilities. Bateleur is the smarter lynch for today.

PPE:

So I'm the mind control redirector AND a nine-year-old grammar-based double-voter??

I'd probably rather lynch you over CPE for today. You've slipped up too many times, your record is probably worse than his after what's happened today, and if you're both scum your ability is likely more dangerous than his.

I also find it very interesting that you're now suggesting an alternative to lynching one of the two of us.

Quote from Azrael

Double-vote potential briefly confirmed by Arimnaes by accident.

Nice try, but no.

Try: double vote likely total fabrication because Azrael realises that surviving today is critical for him.

And, the flavor of Dracula matches that activity of a known townie-killer who is still at large.

Townie killer? Nice spin. It was RafaelK's kill, not yours (or, as you're trying to allege, mine).

Today, he radically flip-flopped

As a left-wing non-American (and in the context of our respective alignments) I find this most amusing!

The potential gain from lynching either is the same: we get another cleared townie.

Not at all. With you scum and me town the gain is an instant win if ZDS guesses right with his investigation target.

But the risk of lynching a self-clearing mason and letting the a cop die as well is greater than the risk of losing an uncleared doctor and letting the cop die as well.

You're right that if I'm lying and we lynch you that's just as bad as if you're lying and we lynch me. However, the case where you're lying and we lynch you is considerably better than the case where I'm lying and we lynch me. All this "self-clearing mason" stuff sounds ever so shiny and exciting but actually improves the town's chances virtually not at all.

So I'm the mind control redirector AND a nine-year-old grammar-based double-voter??

No. I do believe you're a nine year old girl, but beyond that we know nothing about you.

I've been routinely activating my English-speaking capacity over my vote-capacity, except for on day one.

Here's a question for you, given that you seem keen to defend yourself: If you activated your English-speaking capability on day two, why didn't you then use it? And if you activated your double-voting capacity on day one, why didn't you use that either?

Here's another question for you: Why would your role have an explicit activate/deactivate when there's always a chance of you doing a Hunted Charlie and forgetting the restriction? What happens if you do that?

TBH this seems like one of the most obvious falseclaims in Mafia history. I'm almost hoping you get away with it just so that we can both laugh at RafaelK and ZDS for years afterwards!

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur »

Vote : Creampuffeater. Screw the "logical" play of Azrael and Bateleur.

Are you in a rush for some reason? We're having a discussion here!

Quote from bateleur

Nice try, but no.

Try: double vote likely total fabrication because Azrael realises that surviving today is critical for him.

I'm surprised you haven't abandoned this position yet. I requested a vote count, and THEN Arimnaes listed you as having two votes on you. If it was an accident, then it was one of the most coincidental events in all mafia history.

Quote from bateleur »

Townie killer? Nice spin. It was RafaelK's kill, not yours (or, as you're trying to allege, mine).

Spin? Not at all. Whoever killed with the mind-control is, by definition, a townie-killer. I say townie-killer and not scum because it isn't 100% sure that they're scum.

And whoever it is, is still out there. And if we only have two scum left in the game, and one of our biggest suspects right now is Dr. Dracula, I find it hard to imagine a player that fits the profile of the missing redirect killer better than you.

Quote from bateleur »

Not at all. With you scum and me town the gain is an instant win if ZDS guesses right with his investigation target.

Big if, but granted.

Quote from Bateleur »

Here's a question for you, given that you seem keen to defend yourself: If you activated your English-speaking capability on day two, why didn't you then use it? And if you activated your double-voting capacity on day one, why didn't you use that either?

I believe I've explained this twice already.

Quote from bateleur »

Here's another question for you: Why would your role have an explicit activate/deactivate when there's always a chance of you doing a Hunted Charlie and forgetting the restriction? What happens if you do that?

That's mildly sensitive information. I can answer it if a couple other people would like to know.

Quote from bateleur »

TBH this seems like one of the most obvious falseclaims in Mafia history. I'm almost hoping you get away with it just so that we can both laugh at RafaelK and ZDS for years afterwards!

If it's so obviously fake, would you care to back that up and explain why?

Lastly, it looks like you've dropped your process of elimination case. That reduces your argument against me to what, a post restriction that you find difficult to believe for some reason, and what?

Quote from Azrael

I'm surprised you haven't abandoned this position yet. I requested a vote count, and THEN Arimnaes listed you as having two votes on you. If it was an accident, then it was one of the most coincidental events in all mafia history.

How could you request a vote count if you can't talk?

<goes back to look>

Ooh yes! Now that's pretty interesting. If you can vote for people who aren't players, what stops you from talking in bogus votes like that?

But yes, OK, if you requested the vote count that does change things. RafaelK has a confirmed power, so unless there's some doubling up going on somewhere that means there must either be a townie too stupid to own up to being the redirector or there's more than one scum.

In fact that's pretty helpful, because it means there's far, far more chance that the other scum is CPE than RafaelK since he has a proven daykill and CPE has no confirmed ability.

Spin? Not at all. Whoever killed with the mind-control is, by definition, a townie-killer.

Wrong tense. Try "if there was someone who could kill by mind control". Unless you're trying to claim something other than what we saw, which was RafaelK's kill (just not his choice of target).

I believe I've explained this twice already.

Don't like hyperlinks much, do you? Did anyone actually catch this explanation? All the posts I've seen just entail you evading the need to explain.

If it's so obviously fake, would you care to back that up and explain why?

Things I don't like about your claim (biggest to smallest):

1) If your claim is true exactly as stated, you've played the worst game of Mafia ever. You should have just talked in English on day one, day two etc. and switched into double-vote mode only when you planned to use it.
2) You've been provided with at least three ways to get round your smiley-speak restriction. You can Vote: I don't like bateleur's claim, you can abuse the facility to quote (if necessary by self-quoting from days where you could speak English) and you can switch the thing off completely.
3) You have deliberately chosen to continue posting in smileys twice on days where you could have posted in English. This makes it look like you were trying to hold onto your restriction for as long as possible - misleading the town - because you knew it would look bad if you abandoned it. You eventually abandoned it only because the pressure against you meant you would almost certainly be lynched if you weren't able to argue and you didn't feel like posting pages and pages in smiley speak (for which I thank you, it's painful to read as well as write).
4) The "must point out grammatical error" clause is essentially no more than flavour since it's completely impossible to adjudicate. This is the only link between your claimed powers and your role.
5) Hunted Charlie is known town and also has a post restriction. And his works differently from yours. And his makes way more sense.

There's also the fact that I thought you were Mafia before you started talking in English. Your attempts to kill me aren't helping in that respect. You seem to be alleging that I claimed doc completely cold and happened to hit a game where there was no doc (how lucky!). And with the Mafia roleblocker dead and the Cop about to enter a crucial night you want to lynch me right now? Riiiight. Very townie.

Lastly, it looks like you've dropped your process of elimination case.

Not at all, I just have nothing to add to what I've already said on that score. The remaining players are all experienced enough to judge for themselves how likely it is that my analysis of role alignments is correct.

Apologies in advance to those of you who have to try to wade through these conversations. The long and short of it is that Bateleur keeps on saying ridiculous things and not replying to most of the areas where I'm attacking him.

Quote from bateleur

How could you request a vote count if you can't talk?

<goes back to look>

Ooh yes! Now that's pretty interesting. If you can vote for people who aren't players, what stops you from talking in bogus votes like that?

The mod. All the things that players normally use bold text for, such as votes, FOSes, and vote requests are legit. I didn't need to use the vote format to request the count. That was one of the things I needed to PM to clarify.

Quote from bateleur »

But yes, OK, if you requested the vote count that does change things. RafaelK has a confirmed power, so unless there's some doubling up going on somewhere that means there must either be a townie too stupid to own up to being the redirector or there's more than one scum.

In fact that's pretty helpful, because it means there's far, far more chance that the other scum is CPE than RafaelK since he has a proven daykill and CPE has no confirmed ability.

I actually tend to agree with this, given our current lack of info on CPE. Zounds.

Quote from bateleur »

Don't like hyperlinks much, do you? Did anyone actually catch this explanation? All the posts I've seen just entail you evading the need to explain.

Evading? That's some choice misrep right there. Nice work.

I challenge you to post the post where I evade explaining my ability. Better yet, you can just admit that you were totally and completely making that up.

As a townie I haven't considered the voting abilities important to keep online for protection because I haven't been under a lot of scrutiny. At the same time, I wanted to have fun with the post restriction and mislead the scum about my true capabilities and value as an analyst. If they saw me as lesser value townie because I couldn't speak, then I had a higher chance of avoiding a NK and staying alive until the end-game where I'm at my best.

I chose not to talk on any of the previous days, but I wanted to retain the ability to do so if necessary.

The reasons for keeping silent I mentioned in my previous post. If I kept quiet, I would appear less of a threat to the scum than if I were fully-functioning, and would be more likely to survive to the end-game and act as a self-clearing mason. Plus I enjoyed the restriction and I was doing fairly well at working within the bounds of the handicap and communicating what I was thinking.

.

I'll bet you five Azrael points that your next move is to start talking about how there is no realistic way a townie would try gambiting with a post restriction.

Quote from bateleur »

Things I don't like about your claim (biggest to smallest):

1) If your claim is true exactly as stated, you've played the worst game of Mafia ever. You should have just talked in English on day one, day two etc. and switched into double-vote mode only when you planned to use it.

Absolutely not. Read above, then retract.

Quote from Bateleur »

2) You've been provided with at least three ways to get round your smiley-speak restriction. You can Vote: I don't like bateleur's claim, you can abuse the facility to quote (if necessary by self-quoting from days where you could speak English) and you can switch the thing off completely.

The first does not work, as we already covered. The second helps only as much as quoting my previous smilies and doesn't allow me to add new material (disjointing quotes to form new sentences, even of my own quotes, is a no-go, as stated on day one). The third option has a built-in cost.

Retract?

Quote from bateleur »

3) You have deliberately chosen to continue posting in smileys twice on days where you could have posted in English. This makes it look like you were trying to hold onto your restriction for as long as possible - misleading the town - because you knew it would look bad if you abandoned it. You eventually abandoned it only because the pressure against you meant you would almost certainly be lynched if you weren't able to argue and you didn't feel like posting pages and pages in smiley speak (for which I thank you, it's painful to read as well as write).

I'm taking a class in legal fiction at the moment; in which we study how lawyers reinterpret the events of a crime to offer the perspective of events which suits them best, even if it doesn't match the testimony or the facts of the case.

You would make a very good lawyer.

Quote from bateleur »

4) The "must point out grammatical error" clause is essentially no more than flavour since it's completely impossible to adjudicate. This is the only link between your claimed powers and your role.

So you're skeptical that there's a link between grammar powers and activation? You think I'm a generic double voter?? Funny how my regular votes haven't ever counted double...

Or is it supposed to be PM activated?

LMK when you've finished working up the next implausible explanation that best discredits the documented evidence of the thread.

Or you can retract.

5) Hunted Charlie is known town and also has a post restriction. And his works differently from yours. And his makes way more sense.

Funny that you would mention HC. His post restriction isn't all that restrictive, either. In fact, it works on exactly the same principle as mine. If he doesn't comply with the terms of his restriction, his ability is disabled. Essentially he has a choice between speaking pirate, or disabling his restriction but losing his ability.

But that's probably just a coincidence, too...

Quote from bateleur »

There's also the fact that I thought you were Mafia before you started talking in English. Your attempts to kill me aren't helping in that respect. You seem to be alleging that I claimed doc completely cold and happened to hit a game where there was no doc (how lucky!). And with the Mafia roleblocker dead and the Cop about to enter a crucial night you want to lynch me right now? Riiiight. Very townie.

Sounds crazy, till you start looking at the evidence, and remember we're in an Arimnaes game.

The way you slow-rolled that claim, I can easily see you having it as a safe-claim w/actual role, or having waited until you could POE/investigate the remaining players to guarantee you wouldn't be countered.

And the fact that you've claimed doctor and the cop is exposed doesn't give you a free pass, not by a long shot, if we look at the larger picture. Especially not in a mini game, where the role balancing is whacked compared to normals.

Quote from Bateleur »

Not at all, I just have nothing to add to what I've already said on that score. The remaining players are all experienced enough to judge for themselves how likely it is that my analysis of role alignments is correct.

Nice dodge.

Things I don't like about your claim:

1. You slowroll into claiming any information about your targeting activities.
2. You're still half-heartedly trying to say that a nine-year old girl is a better candidate for the mind-control redirecter than fricking dracula
3. YOU're fricking dracula
4. The mind-control killer is still at large
5. How many of the roles in this game could possibly fit the mind control MO as good as Dracula??? Not many.
6. You blacked me out and stole my plasma.
7. You're unconfirmable.

Quote from Azrael

Bateleur keeps on saying ridiculous things and not replying to most of the areas where I'm attacking him.

This is deliberate. Attacks by you against me are irrelevant to me at this point unless you happen to say something I don't trust the other players to be able to assess for themselves.

All the things that players normally use bold text for, such as votes, FOSes, and vote requests are legit.

Sure, because when I'm requesting a vote count I always do it by typing "Vote: Vote Count". What was going on there would have been abuse if your ability was real. And I admit I missed it at the time - you were unwise to draw attention to it now.

I didn't need to use the vote format to request the count. That was one of the things I needed to PM to clarify.

Even better! So you do something that looks like abuse and then PM the mod to clarify that "Vote Count please" would have done the job all along? What motivated you to PM him at that point?

I challenge you to post the post where I evade explaining my ability.

Eh? I was referring to #956 further up this very page. It wasn't supposed to be cryptic.

I'll bet you five Azrael points that your next move is to start talking about how there is no realistic way a townie would try gambiting with a post restriction.

It's an interesting point, but I hadn't looked at it that way until you said it.

What I was going to say was that if you were a townie I'd expect you to be doing everything in your power not to look like you had a post restriction. Because that would look like the counterbalance for a power role and you'd likely jump straight to the top of the Mafia's NK list.

As for your claim not to have played badly it's kind of moot seeing as you're Mafia anyway.

disjointing quotes to form new sentences, even of my own quotes, is a no-go

Wow, you must have a really long PM!

Next time you bluff something like this I recommend answering "don't know" a lot more often.

You would make a very good lawyer.

Why thankyou! <tips hat>

The guy I bought my last car from asked (during price negotiations) if I was a politician. I didn't drop the cheese then either, but amusingly double-edged flattery is still appreciated.

So you're skeptical that there's a link between grammar powers and activation?

I'm skeptical of pretty much every aspect of your claim.

The only part of it which seems to have any substance is that there is some circumstance under which you can achieve a double vote. We have no idea what that circumstance might be or anything about the resulting double vote other than the fact it appears on vote counts.

You think I'm a generic double voter??

Nope. One of the sub-themes of Court Mafia (which I ran) was playing around with multi-voters. There are all kinds of related abilities you might have and I don't care to speculate.

6. You blacked me out and stole my plasma.

Hey, wait, you can't have that in the list - that's one's true!

By the way Bate, do you have some kind of ability to divert investigations away from you ?

Nope.

Although I admit I was sorely tempted to say "yes" there just to discourage you from wasting your investigation on me.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

So... you admit you're scum ?

Sounds like a non-sequitur to me.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

Any objection ?

If you're sufficiently sure about RafaelK then we have a lot of slack to play with.

Unvote

Vote: creampuffeater

Quote from RafaelK »

I think someone has hacked Az' account. Or introduced him to happy pills.

2 creampuffeater - ZeDorkSlipeur, bateleur
1 bateleur - Azrael

4 Not Voting - creampuffeater, Disrupt_Your_Hymn, Hunted Charlie, RafaelK

Quote from bateleur

This is deliberate. Attacks by you against me are irrelevant to me at this point unless you happen to say something I don't trust the other players to be able to assess for themselves.

It's also anti-town play. Instead of working to get to the bottom of the debate and give the town more accurate information, you try to keep your cards close to your chest, let the information go undisclosed, and focus the attention specifically on the person attacking you.

And the person attacking you, if they're townie, is simply going to keep on going. And on the off-chance they're wrong and their attacks are somehow off-base, then most of the blame for it falls on you for not responding. If you're a townie and you play that way, you're creating mislynches. Even more so if your own instinctive counterattacks against that player are completely and utterly ungrounded.

Counter-attacking without defense is the default play for intelligent scum. They realize that the points against them are valid, and so they don't bother to contest them and hope that they die down. Instead they try to point the spotlight elsewhere.

Which is exactly what you're currently doing.

Quote from bateleur »

Sure, because when I'm requesting a vote count I always do it by typing "Vote: Vote Count". What was going on there would have been abuse if your ability was real. And I admit I missed it at the time - you were unwise to draw attention to it now.

..........

You make me smile.

Quote from bateleur »

Even better! So you do something that looks like abuse and then PM the mod to clarify that "Vote Count please" would have done the job all along? What motivated you to PM him at that point?

Prior to.

Quote from Bateleur, on gambiting with a post restriction as town »

It's an interesting point, but I hadn't looked at it that way until you said it.

Quote from bateleur »

Wow, you must have a really long PM!

Not as long as you'd imagine. It only took a single sentence to list the most blatant illegal loopholes and when in doubt I'm supposed to consult Arim.

Quote from bateleur »

The only part of it which seems to have any substance is that there is some circumstance under which you can achieve a double vote. We have no idea what that circumstance might be or anything about the resulting double vote other than the fact it appears on vote counts.

Nope. One of the sub-themes of Court Mafia (which I ran) was playing around with multi-voters. There are all kinds of related abilities you might have and I don't care to speculate.

Hmm. I suppose I could be a double-voting mind-controlling kill-directing 9 year old girl who completely made up the entire grammar thing, faked my post restriction from day one, and decided to willingly put herself in a situation where the lynch would fall on one of the two us.

Quote from bateleur »

vote CPE

For someone who is so certain that I'm scum, you're awfully quick to jump on the first available alternative.

I would like to hear CPE's claim, however. We're at the point where our power roles are likely all exposed and the process of elimination work will take center stage.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

He's claimed Anti-Death ADD Kid who can (not) shuffle roles and not die in the process.

I thought the ADD kid and role-shuffling version of his claim were supposedly just cover for his true abilities as "anti-death", and he was trying to attract fire since he has some sort of kill-retardant conditional ability.

*thinks*

On second thought, maybe we don't want to hear the specifics of his claim, not unless the majority is actually intent on lynching him.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

2. creampuffeater -> Claimed scum.

This means the list of potential scums is down to those three :
Azrael, Bateleur, and Creampuffeater.

Well... If I claimed scum, which I dont see I did anywhere, then WHY AM I ONLY A POTENTIAL SUSPECT? Unless I was clearly lying about being scum, I should of been dead. But I did not claim scum and therefor your list is stupid.

Quote from bateleur

If you're sufficiently sure about RafaelK then we have a lot of slack to play with.

Unvote

Vote: creampuffeater

So... You argue a lot, then vote somebody who wasnt talking to you about it? Meh... You have been on my case all game.

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

He's claimed Anti-Death ADD Kid who can (not) shuffle roles and not die in the process.

No, the ADD part was BS, I am anti-death and I think Az is atleast one person who finds it amusing

@Az: I agree, I will not say much more about my role unless the town is going to lynch me, but I would like to point you back at a quote

Quote from MEMEMEMEME »

I am the nostalgia behind LAL

I am in 10 games

Ugh... I forgot how horrible it is when Azrael speaks. Suddenly we've got an enormous, yet ultimately pointless, quarrel. I think, regardless of whether or not he was faking his restriction this game, he should be restricted to only smilies and votes in all future games. It's just better that way.

Every single bit of my logic tells me that Azrael is scum. Bat's points just make sense. Yet my gut tells me that Bat is scum. Something is wrong, he is so eager, his points so triumphant, that I can't confidently lynch Azrael.

ZDS' plan sounds good. If we lynch CPE, assuming that Raf is clear (I'm not as sure as CPE here, as Xyre could easily have been the killer that night, but...) then we can't really lose. And CPE has role-switched WAY too much this game

Vote CPE

Quote from ZeDorkSlipeur

It's not about being "sufficiently sure". He's investigation cleared

If you're assuming it must be a two Mafia team to contain RafaelK then I still don't see why Xyre taking a given night's kill wouldn't be 50/50.

I'm not unduly fussed anyway since I don't think RafaelK is the redirector for obvious reasons.

Quote from Azrael

It's also anti-town play. Instead of working to get to the bottom of the debate and give the town more accurate information, you try to keep your cards close to your chest

If that were true I'd agree, but what "cards" are these? I'm not holding anything back at all. Any discussion would be necessarily superficial on my part because all I'd be doing is contradicting you point by point, which doesn't add anything.

And on the off-chance they're wrong and their attacks are somehow off-base, then most of the blame for it falls on you for not responding.

That's a factor I would take into account if I were being attacked by someone who I was taking seriously. Since I already know you're scum it's irrelevant to me who is "to blame" for your attacks on me.

Hmm. I suppose I could be a double-voting mind-controlling kill-directing 9 year old girl

Mind controlling? I thought we'd agreed yesterday that CPE was much more likely to be the redirector?

For someone who is so certain that I'm scum, you're awfully quick to jump on the first available alternative.

I have you to thank for that. I need to kill the redirector today, otherwise a redirect could move my protection away from ZDS. By pointing out that you're unlikely to be the redirector you've pretty much pinned it on CPE.

Besides, if you see a fault with ZDS's reasoning you could try pointing it out.

Quote from creampuffeater

So... You argue a lot, then vote somebody who wasnt talking to you about it?

Yup. You disagree? Then feel free to discuss ZDS's plan with the rest of us.

Meh... You have been on my case all game.

Not at all. I was strongly "on your case" when you were busy trying to claim versions of the ADD kid power. When you came back and claimed you were trying to draw NK's I was very supportive of your new claim and you dropped quite a way down my scum list.

You're back to being in trouble now for seemingly being the redirector.

I really need to re-read Azrael and bateleur from day 1 to get to the bottom of this. I have an eye infection, which has made extended reading a bit uncomfortable this weekend, but I daresay I'll be able to do it in the next 2-3 days.

Quote from Hunted Charlie

ultimately pointless

We have a claimed self-clearer versus a claimed doctor, and the debate strikes you as pointless??? And you're not reading the longer posts through?

*sigh*

Apparently I'll need to start writing superficial sound bites instead of intelligent arguments if I expect anyone to actually read my analyses.

(Offtopic: In case anyone wants to post and is unable to due to the forum bug, read this)

Test. Good find, bat.

With three votes of the four needed to lynch on him, I think it's time for CPE to be totally straightforward with us. This whole "I'm in 10 games" and "reason behind LAL" is not something I'm recalling from my time here on MTGS?

CPE is looking scummier. It looks like we can't lose, assuming the following three things:

1. RafaelK is cleared.

2. Either CPE is scum, or we lynch a scum the day after (likely one of Azrael/Bateleur).

3. No remaining scum has an ability that could cause another town death tonight.

This shouldn't be too hard, since I think CPE is probably scum.

Quote from Azrael

We have a claimed self-clearer versus a claimed doctor, and the debate strikes you as pointless???

Most of your later points (both of you) are very simple retaliations, such as the "lawyer" analogy. These are pointless, and don't count as debate.

Quote from Azrael

And you're not reading the longer posts through?

I never said that. But I am reading on very limited time per day right now, and to have to read through pages of tit for tat can be very annoying.

Quote from Azrael

Apparently I'll need to start writing superficial sound bites instead of intelligent arguments if I expect anyone to actually read my analyses.

Not superficial, concise. Your argument here, for example, could have been a lot shorter if you each only made actual points, instead of useless bickering.

Also, I just had a sudden feeling again that Bateleur is ridiculously scummy. I mean, he has a reason to target our cop tonight, a reason for us not to block him, and (if he's scum) a redirection role. That just sounds like too perfect of a setup.

Whatever, the facts support Bat right now, and I don't think lynching Azrael is the best play, so I'll support the CPE wagon.

I really, really have a bad feeling about Bat though.

[quote=Hunted Charlie;/comments/10542203]
Not superficial, concise. Your argument here, for example, could have been a lot shorter if you each only made actual points, instead of useless bickering.
[/quote]

The tit for tat is difficult for anyone else to follow, and I wrote it primarily for Bateleur's benefit.

Summary posts are different.

When someone uses faulty logic to justify a position, it takes a lot more text to point out how their logic is faulty than it does to simply OMGUS them with a short list of bad things about the other player. It takes a few sentences to rip apart every faulty point they bring to the table.

Bateleur's tactic here, the same tactic that won Axelrod the game in Random 2, is to capitalize on the town being too busy or careless to notice that the majority of his attacks don't stand up to scrutiny.

That leaves me with two choices. I can let his attacks go unchallenged and fight fire with fire. Or I can believe, however naively, that if I write the simple facts and the plain truth the town will care enough about the game to take five minutes to read it and see it for what it is, or call me out if I'm wrong.

I'd like to stay naive. Pessimism doesn't come naturally to me. I'll only cross that line if my hand is forced.

Quote from bateleur »

That's a factor I would take into account if I were being attacked by someone who I was taking seriously. Since I already know you're scum it's irrelevant to me who is "to blame" for your attacks on me.

Trusting a hunch as if it's infallible is setting yourself up for failure as a townie.

As scum, feel free to continue to use it. Ignoring attacks is one of the most reliable tells I've seen among experienced scum. It's rarely led me astray in the past, and I doubt it will this time.

Ok... let me lay down some facts for you. I have claimed a different role each day. I have claimed to be the nostalgia of LAL. I have said I am not in 10 games. I am in 10 games.

I must say, for some of the best players on MTGS, I find it odd you have not gotten any of it.

Does anybody here know how to set the date to normal? its about 5 hours off and is annoying me currently.

Quote from Azrael

Bateleur's tactic here [...] is to capitalize on the town being too busy or careless

So with the surviviing town containing RafaelK, DYH and ZDS I decide to assume they're going to be careless... riiight.

I must say, for some of the best players on MTGS, I find it odd you have not gotten any of it.

Sometimes less is more. Keep relatively quiet and the scum will keep on digging.

I'm not about to unvote you, sorry. This crazy mess you've made is completely unconvincing (albeit not quite as unconvincing as Azrael's mess), plus I think you're the redirector.

I am not the redirecter... I am just unnight killable, thats why I diddnt want xyre wasting his shot on me. And bate, there really isnt anything the mafia can do with this info other than try to lynch me, unless you picked up on something that isnt there. I am still in 10 games

Quote from creampuffeater

I am not the redirecter... I am just unnight killable

OK, well that's at least a nice, clear statement.

But there's a problem with that: if you're not the redirecter, who is?

And there's also the fact that if you want to shift my vote you'll have to come up with some theory as to where the other scum lies besides Az, because you look a lot worse than the rest of the candidates from my perspective. (Not least because Az doesn't seem to like lynching you.)

Quote from bateleur

OK, well that's at least a nice, clear statement.

But there's a problem with that: if you're not the redirecter, who is?

And there's also the fact that if you want to shift my vote you'll have to come up with some theory as to where the other scum lies besides Az, because you look a lot worse than the rest of the candidates from my perspective. (Not least because Az doesn't seem to like lynching you.)

No, I've just been more worried about you and the fact that you're pushing against him this hard just when attention was starting to focus on the two of us. It looks an awful lot as though you're just trying to wriggle away for another day with the first excuse given to you, and I'll be absolutely mortified if you actually manage to pull it off.

And I think the evidence links you to the redirecter much more firmly than it does CPE.

I, too, am finding bat's sudden zeal for CPE a bit strange.

I'm still confused as to how RafK's day ability got redirected, and then that same night I got pulled away from Bateleur back to RafaelK; this really isn't adding up at all.

Where was the Dr. Dracula role from- Random 2?

@RafK: You were going to review the Az/Bat situation from day one- any progress? I'm feeling much better about you as a result of today's conversations and conclusions. I'm curious to see if you've found anything I've missed, because frankly, I'm not getting much from Az's contributions before he spoke English.

Quote from Azrael

It looks an awful lot as though you're just trying to wriggle away for another day with the first excuse given to you, and I'll be absolutely mortified if you actually manage to pull it off.

See? Proves my point nicely.

Good use of "mortified", though.

And I think the evidence links you to the redirecter much more firmly than it does CPE.

Because I'm Dr Dracula, yes, haven't forgotten your allegations yet thanks.

Quote from creampuffeater

I am not the redirecter... I am just unnight killable, thats why I diddnt want xyre wasting his shot on me. And bate, there really isnt anything the mafia can do with this info other than try to lynch me, unless you picked up on something that isnt there. I am still in 10 games

Soooo...

You claimed a role that made the whole town waste energy making plans based on your ability. You changed your ability to make it more likely. You then claimed that you were unnightkillable, when we were sick of you and wanted to kill you. And now, when we're about to lynch you for your lies, you tell us you are forced to lie? Well, I'm going to call that being a lie.

Or maybe it isn't. Maybe you are forced to lie. Maybe you are really the "nostalgia behind LAL" (which, by the way, doesn't explain why you would be unnightkillable). But you can still be scum. And are.

Bateleur should die tomorrow, without any further information. Today, CPE is the lynch.

I'd like to hear from Raf before anyone ends the day, personally.

While I still prefer Bat's odds as scum, it's true that CPE also offers a lesser but still considerable chance. The only factor which complicates the decision is the dearth of claim information on HC. Otherwise, POE tends to implicate CPE and Bat from what we can currently observe.

Once discussion is complete lynching CPE is an acceptable, though not optimal, plan of action.

This has been an exceptionally busy week (doctor's appointment, dentist appointment, seminars, busy time at work, and some personal stuff I can't talk about in public just now). It's been all I can do to show up in a couple of threads to "show the flag". Naturally I got made kingmaker over in Kingmaker II on mafiascum at the worst possible time (although someone had the grace to nightkill me in Stargate Mafia- though not after I led a successful day 1 scum lynch to keep my reputation going- so I'm in one less game...)

Final arguments?

ZDS, anything more to say before night-time?

This should be the hammer.

Vote: CPE

Day 3 Final Vote Count:

4 creampuffeater - ZeDorkSlipeur, bateleur, Hunted Charlie, Disrupt_Your_Hymn
1 bateleur - Azrael

2 Not Voting - creampuffeater, RafaelK

Day slowly passes into night. The discussions of your makeshift "council" are long and arduous. You are surprised when one among your number admits to have had dealings with AlphaInsidious the previous night, but he soon dispels your suspicions.

A fierce argument soon erupts between two members of your group, one of whom had been all but silent until now. "He's a no-good vampire!"

"Well he's a no-good... small child."

Eventually it is decided that neither one should be dealt with today - instead the group's suspicion falls upon one of its more inscrutable members - creampuffeater. "Fear not, my good fellows," he says, "for I am but a teenager with a short attention span. I can exchange our powers at will!" Several skeptical-looking eyebrows are raised.

"I mean," he says, starting to falter, "I'm Anti-death, and I cannot be slain at night!" Silence.

"I'm... uh... Radagast the Brown?"

In fact he's none of those things, but in a few seconds, he is most assuredly dead.

creampuffeater, Erestor, Neutral False-Claim, has been lynched.

It is now Night 3. All night actions are due on Monday, September 23, at 6:00 PM EST.