Jobie, when you first voted for me was it random? You are still voting for me for apparent reason now, just clarify that the vote there is an actual vote, would you? I understand you are not going to discuss why, and that is fine, but my above question is a relevant.
I also think nymphe has a good point. I am not going to vote but I will be interested in what Wuffles has to say.
Rian- What do you mean by a website that does it for you? Just how insecure do you think anograms would be?
Google anagram + the first thing that pops up is the Internet Anagram Server, which will turn any string of letters you put into it into a list of every possible real-word combination. I haven't tinkered much with it, I just know it's there.
*tries Serendipity Townie Motivator*
*realizes Townie isn't a real word + won't ever come back*
*process of elimination*
Ok, it seems to have a string limit of 25 characters, which would keep people from using it if we all made sure our anagrams had more than 25 characters. . . but that doesn't prevent the simple process of elimination that would show you all the vanillas, or eliminating familiar mafia terms (vanilla, townie) + working from there.
I really don't see how this is at *all* secure, when the pool of words is going to be from clerks, mafia, + either contain vanilla or not. It's not the Enigma Code, here.
I don't see the point in this.....a skilled mafia could find out all the roles, and so while it might be more difficult, is likely not to help the town that much. Essentially this is just the same as mass name-claiming, which i"m far against.
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OK, so Wuffles said something pretty dumb, but I don't necessarily think he's scum for it. It could just as easily have been a townie slip-up as a scum one. Read his post again, does it really sound that much like something a scum would say moreso than a townie?
Google anagram + the first thing that pops up is the Internet Anagram Server, which will turn any string of letters you put into it into a list of every possible real-word combination. I haven't tinkered much with it, I just know it's there.
*tries Serendipity Townie Motivator*
*realizes Townie isn't a real word + won't ever come back*
*process of elimination*
Ok, it seems to have a string limit of 25 characters, which would keep people from using it if we all made sure our anagrams had more than 25 characters. . . but that doesn't prevent the simple process of elimination that would show you all the vanillas, or eliminating familiar mafia terms (vanilla, townie) + working from there.
I really don't see how this is at *all* secure, when the pool of words is going to be from clerks, mafia, + either contain vanilla or not. It's not the Enigma Code, here.
If people insert appropriate adjectives/nouns into their anagrams, they become even more secure. Also, an anagram program would fail to identify names.
Also, there are a ton of words in the English language. Good luck to any scum foolish enough to try to pin down those terms to mafia-specific names.
At minimum, I would like to pin the mafia down to what they are going to claim on day one, and prevent them from adapting to future information.
And I would advise not too many people not to include "v" in their anagrams, if they're vanilla. Also "t" could be rather redundant, and frequently goes before role titles, so people would want to be careful how they use that as well.
I really don't see any drawbacks to trying that, though. Properly formatted anagrams, with 6-7 letters or more, ought to be very difficult for the mafia to penetrate.
Oh. And adding a fair amount of "c"s and "d"s and maybe even "w"s and "m"s would also be advisable, just for purposes of covering valuable town roles.
And putting your actual role ability at the end of your anagram would be rather silly if you're going to all that trouble, so you'd need to be careful with that.
And now for something completely different:
I learned from Hollywood mafia that if you have an investigative role and get a scum result night 0, I should hold it for a while and allow the town to gain some info from reactions rather than going, "HEY GUIZ HE"S DA 5CU|\/|50R5!!!" I think we've gone long enough. Sorryguy, why would a gunsmith like me find a someone like you to be dangerous (AKA the ability to kill)? Confirm Vote: Sorryguy Yes, yes, I know I said I didn't have role-based info on him. So I lied, but that was to cover myself in the odd chance the mafia believed that it wasn't actual role-based info.
I know, I know we've got a couple nice wagons going. But, I have the feeling that if hadn't come out with this and Sorryguy is scum, I'd be dead tomorrow.
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I am Federal Wildlife Marshal Willenholly. Because of my connections, each night I may select a player and discover who they had targeted that night. Last night I chose arimnaes because I figured he was the best player that would likely live. I found that he targeted Cyan. I know that arimnaes is good enough to not do so as a vig and the flavor seemed to match that of the death scene. This is why I suspect him to be a SK. I think that my profession would most likely explain why I have a gun. What is left unexplained is why we have three information roles.
Of course I know that fishing or speculating for power roles - USEFUL power roles - is scummy.
However, the vig is NOT in that category right now. And I'll happily scrap with anyone, ANYONE, who tries to tell me a vig firing night 0 is a good idea.
And arim, nice work with the emphasis, man. You were already voting me - why bother to unvote then vote me again
And arim, nice work with the emphasis, man. You were already voting me - why bother to unvote then vote me again
I wasn't voting you at the time, I was voting for Machin Shin.
SorryGuy is correct that I targetted Cyan last night, so he is at least telling the truth about being a tracker. I did not kill Cyan, however. I can full claim, if necessary, though of course I'd rather not.
Jobie - when you say that your role is a gunsmith, do you mean that you literally search for a gun on your target? Basically, I want to know if SorryGuy's explanation is plausible.
Well, this certainly is getting more and more interesting.
Arimnaes, target claim please. (Or at least confirm/deny Cyan targeting.)
Also, on anagrams. I've got a >30 character description of my name, and even eliminating obvious (to me) terms from it, it still seems quite secure from playing around on various decoding sites. We aren't exactly hiding submarine locations here.
One doesn't have to use the words included in a PM, clerk could become shopkeeper, cancermerchant, seller, or salesperson. Again, the point isn't to give anyone any information now, just to lock you into a claim later. Also, there are dozens of synonyms for townie.
Jobie - when you say that your role is a gunsmith, do you mean that you literally search for a gun on your target? Basically, I want to know if SorryGuy's explanation is plausible.
Please note that I have not been told that I have a gun. My understanding of a gunsmith is that they get results on vigs, cops, mafia, SK, and cultists. Now I guess I might get a positive result as a information role. I will ask if my character in the movies has one, but I do not find it wholly relevant as it is more of a function issue than a flavor issue, I do believe.
I think we were just having this discussion in another thread, actually. The issue is that "gunsmith" has a number of definitions in mafia; in my game (Hollywood Mafia), the gunsmith role got a dangerous result on anyone who had the ability to kill other players. But in some games, I've seen the gunsmith role taken more literally, where they get a dangerous result on anyone who actually has a gun.
Actually, I take back the Full claim request. I still want to pursue anagrams, and the less info out there the better that will work. We should get back to this, but I want to resolve the anagram question first.
Of course I know that fishing or speculating for power roles - USEFUL power roles - is scummy.
However, the vig is NOT in that category right now. And I'll happily scrap with anyone, ANYONE, who tries to tell me a vig firing night 0 is a good idea.
And arim, nice work with the emphasis, man. You were already voting me - why bother to unvote then vote me again
My role states that I try to find if they have an ability to kill. It says this isn't 100% accurate which was why I wasn't 100% certain I wanted to reveal it, but I decided that I should because I sat on the "dangerous" result long enough.
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Arim is, btw, not the vig that i know of. Cyan was killed by another role. RafK was shot by the vig.
So unless we have 2 vigs, i think arim would be my prime target for today....Vote Arim.
Arim, i think you should claim....now.
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EBWODP: Jobie, I've often seen cops turn out to come up dangerous to gunsmiths. Now mind you, SG could easily be a mafia tracker, as Will Ferrill's role i could see being a scum in this game.
But at the same time, arim looks more and more like the SK.
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I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Alright, well, barring the possibility of a mafia tracker (which is certainly not impossible, but also not all that likely) I accept that SorryGuy is on the level.
I'm Jay, of Jay and Silent Bob. I am responsible for this having happened to Cyan:
He looks like he just got to bed. A trail of clothes leads to his bed. His body reeks of alcohol and other distinctive smells.
I can ability claim if you're not satisfied, but I'm going to start with just this.
Well, this certainly is getting more and more interesting.
Arimnaes, target claim please. (Or at least confirm/deny Cyan targeting.)
Also, on anagrams. I've got a >30 character description of my name, and even eliminating obvious (to me) terms from it, it still seems quite secure from playing around on various decoding sites. We aren't exactly hiding submarine locations here.
One doesn't have to use the words included in a PM, clerk could become shopkeeper, cancermerchant, seller, or salesperson. Again, the point isn't to give anyone any information now, just to lock you into a claim later. Also, there are dozens of synonyms for townie.
Hmm, to make this even better, we could include an exact character amount that everyone should claim along with their anagram. That way, the scum have a lot less wiggle room when it comes to altering their anagrams.
On the gunsmith issue, I would suggest that Jobie ask for clarification on his role from Fade, and state precisely what it says.
Also, with this many information roles suddenly out in the open, I'm becoming increasingly less sure we have anything to lose from even a comprehensive full-claim, much less an anagram claim.
Alright, well, barring the possibility of a mafia tracker (which is certainly not impossible, but also not all that likely) I accept that SorryGuy is on the level.
I'm Jay, of Jay and Silent Bob. I am responsible for this having happened to Cyan:
I can ability claim if you're not satisfied, but I'm going to start with just this.
What arimnaes has claimed is consistent with what flavor I was given. The problem, though, is this: That pretty much is the death scene. After that it is just a character identification. The first post lists death as being from chopping in half which doesn't seem to point to you but also not exclude you. I will go ahead and Unvote.
JOBIE, if you feel you can clarify any better than
My role states that I try to find if they have an ability to kill. It says this isn't 100% accurate which was why I wasn't 100% certain I wanted to reveal it, but I decided that I should because I sat on the "dangerous" result long enough.
I am not certain when I'll be online again. I'll just catch up with what I think are points of interest.
A few notes:
1. Random voting phase over. Unvote
Hunches with no supporting evidence are bad. Look what happened to Raf as a result of someone's "hunch".
2. What is so wrong with supporting claims anyway? Besides, I thought Arim was against them, not supporting them? That's what I could gather from his argument with Azrael anyway.
Oh. When I say nothing to lose, I mean if you're very, very sure that you'll be lynched if you don't lie, and lie very believably.
4. That sort of defeats the whole purpose of mass claiming for the town.
5. I am against the anagrams claiming as well. Why must we even include word puzzles into this?
EDIT: Actually, Azrael made an interesting point in Post 162. I'll mull over it.
6. Agreed, we need clarification over the scope of the role 'gunsmith' in this game.
Fade basically quoted a line of my original role PM. It says due to the nature of my power I can't be 100% sure of whether or not they actually have the ability to kill when they bring back the "dangerous" result.
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Dagger: wuffles didn't vote arim because he thought arim was supporting claims, he meant he was supporting claiming himself, and voted arim for other reasons.
Fade basically quoted a line of my original role PM. It says due to the nature of my power I can't be 100% sure of whether or not they actually have the ability to kill when they bring back the "dangerous" result.
Meaning there is a possibility investigative roles like cops would be "dangerous" due to flavor reason?
As an example of what I was proposing as a secure anagram, here is a role (Which is neither mine, nor one that I know to exist in this game) which could be in the game. If anyone thinks they can crack this, please let me know.
(Anagramming seems stupid when it's so much easier to simply list the letters.)
After this is more discussed, I'd like to hear more from Arim, but think we should avoid spilling additional info if we're going to go through with this.
I guess, I'd be in favor of an anagram claim, just cuz I think there's no way the madia would go through the effort of trying to crack 20 something of those.
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I will grudgingly say that I am in favor of anagramming, if and only if people vary terminology and throw in qualifying words to make them as daunting as the one Treigit posted. It seems we also have less to lose, now that two info roles are out.
I apologize for my recent absence, but my monitor died, and I was more concerned with homework due this week than this since I had to do it in the lab. I am back up and running and will be caught up by tonight.
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Cyan is admittedly targeted by arimneas, and Cyan dies. Coincidence? Perhaps. But not likely. Arimneas has to say that someone else must have targetted him too. But how probable is it that Cyan would be targeted multiple times in a field of 26 on night 0? Granted, that's not impossible, but the odds say that arimneaes is an SK. I say we lynch him. If he turns out to be non-lethal, then we take a good look at SorryGuy.
First, Cubus, Cyan smelled of "other distinctive smells" and alcohol. Jay is a drug dealer (even if he's been through rehab). You do the math. I'm sure that makes Arim's ability clear as mud, but I'm not willing to push it too far just yet.
I'm a bit disappointed that Jobie came out with this information when he had no way to know it was accurate, and I don't think halfway through Day 1 is enough. I really wish he had sat on it for a day or two after his little breadcrumb, so he could observe SG and others a bit more. No crying over spilt milk, however.
I find it perfectly reasonable that a gunsmith would get a dangerous result on a cop with a gun. Now, please note I'm not asking for arim to claim at this point, but the flavor he used to soft-claim doesn't preclude having been a prelude to killing Cyan. Of course the whole thing is greatly complicated by arim claiming Jay. LJustus' assurances aside, few people are going to be willing to believe Jay is scum of any kind, and I think arim knows that. Anywho, while it sucks to have 2 information roles outted and one other sort-of outed, I don't think anybody here is deserving of a vote right now.
On the continuing issue of claiming, I suppose I wouldn't be incredibly opposed to claiming in the manner of Treigit's example, although I still question the usefulness.
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
EBWODP: RandomActs, yes of course if arim was in fact the SK or some other hostile neutral he wouldn't claim having killed Cyan, but how do you get that huge jump from "What are the odds that multiple people targeted Cyan" to "Arimnaes is the SK". I'm somewhat displeased at the whole situation right now, but perhaps some good can come out of all this. Vote RandomActs.
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
EBWODP: RandomActs, yes of course if arim was in fact the SK or some other hostile neutral he wouldn't claim having killed Cyan, but how do you get that huge jump from "What are the odds that multiple people targeted Cyan" to "Arimnaes is the SK".
It's a very simple process of elimantion. NK's are typically performed by scum, vigilantes, and serial killers. Cyan was scum, so he would not have been offed by them. We've speculated that arimneas is too experienced to NK as a vig on night 0. So that leaves SK. Hardly a "huge leap."
So either arimneas is a serial killer OR cyan was targetted multiple times on night 0 in a field of 26. Choose which you want to believe. But I say the odds indicate arimneas is SK.
random acts, that seems like CRAPLOGIC (tm) to me, we shouldnt lynch someone based on the probability of whether or not Cyan was targetted twice in one night, unvote, vote RA
the problem with your proposal is if all three of them are telling the truth, your plan leads to 2 mislynches...
anybody else notice the disappearance of Wuffles right after we forgot about the controversy over him when jobie brought out the information fos:wuffles...
I see no significant reason to believe that either Jobie, SG, or Arimnaes are scum (I'd forgotten that Cyan was the the dead mafioso).
Unfortunately, I don't know where that leaves us. I'll get a chance to reread tomorrow. Also, I'll probably post my anagram then if no one comes forward sayign they can crack the last one.
random acts, that seems like CRAPLOGIC (tm) to me, we shouldnt lynch someone based on the probability of whether or not Cyan was targetted twice in one night,
I'm willing for listen. Show me the error in logic and I'll withdraw my vote.
But remember, I'm not for lynching solely on probability. You mischaracterize my argument by saying so. The fact is: arimaneas was caught targeting cyan, and now cyan is dead. That -right there - is the basis for my vote.
I bring up probability because armineas' only possible aliby (that someone else must have targetted him too) is not very likely. It's a supporting argument, not the reason for the vote.
RA, he targeted a now dead scum, that means he's either a neutral but helpful to the town, a scum with a beneficial (non Doc) roll, or a townie with a power roll. Of the three, which strikes you as most likely. Also, despite being newer than a lot of the N1 target players, Cyan is quite good, and a number of people recognize this. If it were you or I who people were claiming was multi targeted, that would be an entirely different kettle of fish.
RA, he targeted a now dead scum, that means he's either a neutral but helpful to the town, a scum with a beneficial (non Doc) roll, or a townie with a power roll. Of the three, which strikes you as most likely. Also, despite being newer than a lot of the N1 target players, Cyan is quite good, and a number of people recognize this. If it were you or I who people were claiming was multi targeted, that would be an entirely different kettle of fish.
Which of the three to I find most likely? As I stated before, I think he's probably an SK, but it remains to be seen if he'll continue to be helpful to the town. If armineas wants to claim accordingly, then yes, he should be left off the hook. But I don't think we should let a SK (if that's what he is) work freely on his own.
Granted, I know nothing of Cyan's reputation. And if, as you say, his skills would draw greater attention vis a vis targeting, then my probability argument is much less significant. I'll no longer push that point.
to be clear, are we anagramming our names, or our roles as well?
@RA: tregit explained what i would have, and i hope that answers your questions
i am not against watching arimaneas, but i am against voting for him on the probability of whether or not cyan was targetted twice in on night 1, which i would see as relatively likely, seeing as cyan is an experienced player, the same way i wouldnt be surprised if multiple people targetted puzzle n1
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You don't think speculation about power roles is scummy? Or just not in this case, with an overeager vig?
unvote, vote Wuffles.
I would like him to explain himself.
I also think nymphe has a good point. I am not going to vote but I will be interested in what Wuffles has to say.
*tries Serendipity Townie Motivator*
*realizes Townie isn't a real word + won't ever come back*
*process of elimination*
Ok, it seems to have a string limit of 25 characters, which would keep people from using it if we all made sure our anagrams had more than 25 characters. . . but that doesn't prevent the simple process of elimination that would show you all the vanillas, or eliminating familiar mafia terms (vanilla, townie) + working from there.
I really don't see how this is at *all* secure, when the pool of words is going to be from clerks, mafia, + either contain vanilla or not. It's not the Enigma Code, here.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Also anagramming = stupid.
If people insert appropriate adjectives/nouns into their anagrams, they become even more secure. Also, an anagram program would fail to identify names.
Also, there are a ton of words in the English language. Good luck to any scum foolish enough to try to pin down those terms to mafia-specific names.
At minimum, I would like to pin the mafia down to what they are going to claim on day one, and prevent them from adapting to future information.
And I would advise not too many people not to include "v" in their anagrams, if they're vanilla. Also "t" could be rather redundant, and frequently goes before role titles, so people would want to be careful how they use that as well.
I really don't see any drawbacks to trying that, though. Properly formatted anagrams, with 6-7 letters or more, ought to be very difficult for the mafia to penetrate.
Oh. And adding a fair amount of "c"s and "d"s and maybe even "w"s and "m"s would also be advisable, just for purposes of covering valuable town roles.
And putting your actual role ability at the end of your anagram would be rather silly if you're going to all that trouble, so you'd need to be careful with that.
I learned from Hollywood mafia that if you have an investigative role and get a scum result night 0, I should hold it for a while and allow the town to gain some info from reactions rather than going, "HEY GUIZ HE"S DA 5CU|\/|50R5!!!" I think we've gone long enough. Sorryguy, why would a gunsmith like me find a someone like you to be dangerous (AKA the ability to kill)? Confirm Vote: Sorryguy Yes, yes, I know I said I didn't have role-based info on him. So I lied, but that was to cover myself in the odd chance the mafia believed that it wasn't actual role-based info.
I know, I know we've got a couple nice wagons going. But, I have the feeling that if hadn't come out with this and Sorryguy is scum, I'd be dead tomorrow.
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However, the vig is NOT in that category right now. And I'll happily scrap with anyone, ANYONE, who tries to tell me a vig firing night 0 is a good idea.
And arim, nice work with the emphasis, man. You were already voting me - why bother to unvote then vote me again
arimnaes.
SorryGuy is correct that I targetted Cyan last night, so he is at least telling the truth about being a tracker. I did not kill Cyan, however. I can full claim, if necessary, though of course I'd rather not.
Jobie - when you say that your role is a gunsmith, do you mean that you literally search for a gun on your target? Basically, I want to know if SorryGuy's explanation is plausible.
Arimnaes, target claim please. (Or at least confirm/deny Cyan targeting.)
Also, on anagrams. I've got a >30 character description of my name, and even eliminating obvious (to me) terms from it, it still seems quite secure from playing around on various decoding sites. We aren't exactly hiding submarine locations here.
One doesn't have to use the words included in a PM, clerk could become shopkeeper, cancermerchant, seller, or salesperson. Again, the point isn't to give anyone any information now, just to lock you into a claim later. Also, there are dozens of synonyms for townie.
Yeah, given that SG is telling the truth, I think Arimnaes is up for a full claim now.
Please note that I have not been told that I have a gun. My understanding of a gunsmith is that they get results on vigs, cops, mafia, SK, and cultists. Now I guess I might get a positive result as a information role. I will ask if my character in the movies has one, but I do not find it wholly relevant as it is more of a function issue than a flavor issue, I do believe.
Which is why Jobie needs to elaborate a little.
BTW. Willenholy most certainly was packing.
I'd suggest posting in this thread:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4393
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So unless we have 2 vigs, i think arim would be my prime target for today....Vote Arim.
Arim, i think you should claim....now.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
But at the same time, arim looks more and more like the SK.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I'm Jay, of Jay and Silent Bob. I am responsible for this having happened to Cyan:
I can ability claim if you're not satisfied, but I'm going to start with just this.
Hmm, to make this even better, we could include an exact character amount that everyone should claim along with their anagram. That way, the scum have a lot less wiggle room when it comes to altering their anagrams.
On the gunsmith issue, I would suggest that Jobie ask for clarification on his role from Fade, and state precisely what it says.
Also, with this many information roles suddenly out in the open, I'm becoming increasingly less sure we have anything to lose from even a comprehensive full-claim, much less an anagram claim.
What arimnaes has claimed is consistent with what flavor I was given. The problem, though, is this: That pretty much is the death scene. After that it is just a character identification. The first post lists death as being from chopping in half which doesn't seem to point to you but also not exclude you. I will go ahead and Unvote.
SorryGuy (1) - Jobie
Cubus (2) - Dagger, Keldulas
loran16 (1) - ButteBlues
kops723 (1) - MMoD
arimnaes (1) - loran16
Beaker (1) - RandomActs
rianalnn (1) - Azrael
LookingforReality (2) - InfinityCubed, Beaker
Azrael (2) - Machin Shin, AbbeyGargoyle
Wuffles II (4) - rianalnn, nymphe, arimnaes, LookingforReality
State.
Precisely.
Ok. We're getting into "ZDS, can you please quote your townie pm" territory here.
JOBIE, if you feel you can clarify any better than proceed, but please don't get yourself modkilled.
A few notes:
1. Random voting phase over. Unvote
2. What is so wrong with supporting claims anyway? Besides, I thought Arim was against them, not supporting them? That's what I could gather from his argument with Azrael anyway.
3. I don't really find that info useless.
4. That sort of defeats the whole purpose of mass claiming for the town.
5. I am against the anagrams claiming as well. Why must we even include word puzzles into this?
EDIT: Actually, Azrael made an interesting point in Post 162. I'll mull over it.
6. Agreed, we need clarification over the scope of the role 'gunsmith' in this game.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Ah, my bad. Noted.
Meaning there is a possibility investigative roles like cops would be "dangerous" due to flavor reason?
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
aaaaaabccdeeeehhiiiiiiijkklllmnnoooprrrrsssttttttwy
(Anagramming seems stupid when it's so much easier to simply list the letters.)
After this is more discussed, I'd like to hear more from Arim, but think we should avoid spilling additional info if we're going to go through with this.
Cyan is admittedly targeted by arimneas, and Cyan dies. Coincidence? Perhaps. But not likely. Arimneas has to say that someone else must have targetted him too. But how probable is it that Cyan would be targeted multiple times in a field of 26 on night 0? Granted, that's not impossible, but the odds say that arimneaes is an SK. I say we lynch him. If he turns out to be non-lethal, then we take a good look at SorryGuy.
Vote arimnaes
I'm a bit disappointed that Jobie came out with this information when he had no way to know it was accurate, and I don't think halfway through Day 1 is enough. I really wish he had sat on it for a day or two after his little breadcrumb, so he could observe SG and others a bit more. No crying over spilt milk, however.
I find it perfectly reasonable that a gunsmith would get a dangerous result on a cop with a gun. Now, please note I'm not asking for arim to claim at this point, but the flavor he used to soft-claim doesn't preclude having been a prelude to killing Cyan. Of course the whole thing is greatly complicated by arim claiming Jay. LJustus' assurances aside, few people are going to be willing to believe Jay is scum of any kind, and I think arim knows that. Anywho, while it sucks to have 2 information roles outted and one other sort-of outed, I don't think anybody here is deserving of a vote right now.
On the continuing issue of claiming, I suppose I wouldn't be incredibly opposed to claiming in the manner of Treigit's example, although I still question the usefulness.
It's a very simple process of elimantion. NK's are typically performed by scum, vigilantes, and serial killers. Cyan was scum, so he would not have been offed by them. We've speculated that arimneas is too experienced to NK as a vig on night 0. So that leaves SK. Hardly a "huge leap."
So either arimneas is a serial killer OR cyan was targetted multiple times on night 0 in a field of 26. Choose which you want to believe. But I say the odds indicate arimneas is SK.
the problem with your proposal is if all three of them are telling the truth, your plan leads to 2 mislynches...
anybody else notice the disappearance of Wuffles right after we forgot about the controversy over him when jobie brought out the information fos:wuffles...
Unfortunately, I don't know where that leaves us. I'll get a chance to reread tomorrow. Also, I'll probably post my anagram then if no one comes forward sayign they can crack the last one.
I'm willing for listen. Show me the error in logic and I'll withdraw my vote.
But remember, I'm not for lynching solely on probability. You mischaracterize my argument by saying so. The fact is: arimaneas was caught targeting cyan, and now cyan is dead. That -right there - is the basis for my vote.
I bring up probability because armineas' only possible aliby (that someone else must have targetted him too) is not very likely. It's a supporting argument, not the reason for the vote.
Which of the three to I find most likely? As I stated before, I think he's probably an SK, but it remains to be seen if he'll continue to be helpful to the town. If armineas wants to claim accordingly, then yes, he should be left off the hook. But I don't think we should let a SK (if that's what he is) work freely on his own.
Granted, I know nothing of Cyan's reputation. And if, as you say, his skills would draw greater attention vis a vis targeting, then my probability argument is much less significant. I'll no longer push that point.
Hopefully all of them should be posted within the next three days, barring any objections.
@RA: tregit explained what i would have, and i hope that answers your questions
i am not against watching arimaneas, but i am against voting for him on the probability of whether or not cyan was targetted twice in on night 1, which i would see as relatively likely, seeing as cyan is an experienced player, the same way i wouldnt be surprised if multiple people targetted puzzle n1