However, Xyre, Jobie did not claim "unnightkillable Shu" (if he wants to claim that, it's a good time). Besides, Kenji has indicated the ability was used on him, not on Jobie.
Overall, I think Jobie is still the play. The timeline issue with his role, and the gameplay issues (ie. 4 days to find out the result, the inconvenience of having to wait until all the other night choices are in and the kill is sure and then having to ask Jobie for a choice afterwards, the vagueness of him finding out "connections" of the person, him not hinting at all at the existence of a Dong Zhuo scum in addition to the Wei scum at all prior to yesterday...) still fail to ring true to me; it's just that bit off in a few directions, which says to me it's a false claim.
There's also the point that someone blocked the town vig to keep Jobie alive.
Cyan's claim also has issues, and he was apparenly blocked by CP at the same time as we had no extra kill.
Both of them, of course, came under suspicion due to swinkee- and swinkee's story about being recruited and so forth also has credibility problems (especially that it seems like it would have to be a scripted interaction as fadeblue has said, but a scripted interaction involving the forced night 1 death of a player?).
vote Jobie seems to be the most expedient way of dealing with this, though. The roleblock on Kenji has bought him a day; I don't think it should buy him more than that.
Unvote. I'm pretty happy to see either lynched by the end of the day. If our theory is good, lynching one of them is as good as lynching the other, unless we believe one of them has a different set of abilities.
Overall, I think Jobie is still the play. The timeline issue with his role, and the gameplay issues (ie. 4 days to find out the result, the inconvenience of having to wait until all the other night choices are in and the kill is sure and then having to ask Jobie for a choice afterwards, the vagueness of him finding out "connections" of the person, him not hinting at all at the existence of a Dong Zhuo scum in addition to the Wei scum at all prior to yesterday...) still fail to ring true to me; it's just that bit off in a few directions, which says to me it's a false claim.
There's also the point that someone blocked the town vig to keep Jobie alive.
I'll start from the bottom up. Unless I missed something, Kenji has not claimed who he targetted last night. So I don't know why you assume he targetted me.
Second, I have already stated that there isn't a "timeline issue" because I was told about most of the kills before they happened. On the connections issue: it would tell me who the person was connected to if they were. It was pretty much to tell me who a certain mafioso was connected to, but I guess it worked to find the Dong Zhuo deal.
Oh, and as far as I know I'm not an unkillable townie.
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I guess it's confession time. Everything that Swinkee said is true. I am Dong Zhuo. Initially, my win condition was to stay alive with Jobie until the end of the game. Later(apparently on Day 1, from what I've been able to confirm with the Mod), Jobie was able to 'recruit' Lu Bu to our cause(I gather that this was not supposed to happen on Day 1, we just got lucky). When he was recruited, we 'became' a mafia(my win condition changed to 'at the end of the game, have as many players alive as everyone else combined'), and we gained the ability to submit a night kill. However, when he died, and I'll never understand what in the world Jobie was thinking there(I'm not allowed to communicate with either of them, ever..this is made abundantly clear to me), my win condition reverted to just 'stay alive with Diao Chan/Jobie until the end of the game'. Huang Yueying was given to me as a safe claim, and I made up the ability for it.
As it stands now, I am Dong Zhuo, Neutral, with no ability whatsoever, my only win condition being to stay alive w/ Diao Chan. If one of us dies, I honestly have no idea what will happen.
I'll start from the bottom up. Unless I missed something, Kenji has not claimed who he targetted last night. So I don't know why you assume he targetted me.
Quote from Kenji »
yay, Jobie's been caught in a lie. YAY, I don't have to base a vig on my own devices, roll on night...
Cyan, do not consider yourself off the hook, I still suspect you.
It's correct that Kenji hasn't formally confirmed it was Jobie. However, everyone would have assumed last night that it was Jobie he was going to vig, so if Kenji was roleblocked it seems probably that it was for the purpose of protecting Jobie, not Cyan (even if Kenji has privately changed his mind and planned on killing Cyan).
Abandon Hope: Much as we all enjoy enigmatic votes out of the blue, a reason would be nice. Are you saying that you have proof that Azrael caused the aura on Kenji? That would set the cat among the pigeons for sure.
Jobie: timeline issue is that even on your version, Fayul had to go through all other night actions (in case a block or protection changed matters), then tell you, then wait for your response, then finish night. That's really annoying from a modding point of view, and as I think cp pointed out it could be dealt with much more easily by making you use the ability the next night on the kills from the first night and just accelerating the information gain by a night.
Jobie, did you claim character? I don't recall you doing so; it might be a good idea. I'd like to know the flavour behind all this slow-investigation stuff, see if there's any coherence there.
Sarnathed by Cyan. Well, well.
As long as a Dong Zhuo kill doesn't show up, I'm more than happy to leave Cyan alive and kill off Jobie.
Reasons:
1) They may be lying about the alternate win condition and we're much safer if we break them up. Final 2 for a pair without a kill is ridiculously difficult, but surviving together to final 4 is a reasonably common type of win condition for "lovers".
2) Jobie lynched instead of Cyan because he threw swinkee overboard and may have something else going on that swinkee/Cyan didn't know about. He could be a mafia spy in the Dong Zhuo group and was ordered to throw Lu Bu out because Lu Bu wanted to kill off another mafia member or something. Who knows? Hey, Cyan, who were you guys planning on killing next?
3) Leave Cyan alone after lynching Jobie because we still have Wei out there. If we remove the Wei and Cyan's still with us, we might go look at him again.
I would like to hear what Jobie has to say, in light of Cyan's coming clean. I also want to know if either of them is going to claim the block on Kenji.
Quote from Abandon_Hope »
Vote: Az. Maybe things won't go so well for you tonight.:-)
Oh right: Confirm Vote: Cyan. Is it just me or do the scum always pick those who destroyed their mafia as their fake comrades in desperate times?
Assuming Cyan's story is true, the probability that I pick Lu Bu is 1:21 or 1:22, assuming I do or don't know the identity of Dong Zhuo. That's really bad odds. Add in the factor that I have some of the worst luck in the world, and that seems highly improbable.
@Rafaelk: I claimed Pang Tong
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I am not claiming anything ariminaes. My vote is because I'm suspicous of Az. My words, well, it's a threat right? The smilie face seemed like the thing to do.
In the face of Jobie's stubborness and AH apparently not wanting to claim whatever info he may have on Az (Abandon Hope, I presume you WOULD tell us if you had a confirmed or near-confirmed scum catch, right?), I'm pretty much set on Jobie for the lynch.
Honestly Jobie, all that I'm doing is trying to save us both, not get you killed. According to my win condition now(which I assume is the same as yours but you're just being stubborn), we both have to survive for me to 'win' the game. I felt that this was the one chance to make this possible. One of us would be(and, quite possibly, will be) the lynch for today. RafK flatly debunked your claimed ability, which was only marginally believable in the first place, considering the pains/extra effort it required on the part of the Mod for Night 1, and the fact that the Mod would have to give you pointless information on Night 1. Continuing down that path would have simply resulted in one of us getting lynched today, and the other getting lynched tomorrow. I came clean because, even though we're neutral, we can't hurt the town(at least, my latest PM does not indicate that you can 'find' another NK for us, like the first one said that you could find Lu Bu), and even though we both have to stay alive to 'Win', I'd rather at least be alive and able to participate in the game to the end, than just get lynched/vigged today. Honestly, I just want to keep playing. I have to admit, after Jobie, out of nowhere, outed Lu Bu(and with that, cost us our ability to NK), I was pretty disgusted and willing to let him sink or swim on his own merits, especially after everything that Swinkee pulled, which I'm still livid about*...but then, Fayul informed me last night that my(and I assume Jobie's) win condition had reverted. Even so, I didn't want to have this conversation today, because I hate the 'I lied before, but I'm telling the truth now..really!' play, but, the most important thing to me is to be able to keep playing, even if I cannot technically 'win'...I can still participate and contribute, and that's what matters the most, so I felt like the best course of action was to come clean.
On an unrelated note, trying to use a statement like 'I have bad luck' as an example for why someone's statement isn't true is so ridiculously bad that it's not even funny.
FWIW, I honestly know nothing about why Kenji's attempt at vigging one of us failed. I know that CP claimed to have tried to RB Rhinocero earlier in the game, and described the same 'magic aura' as stopping him, but, he also RBed me last night and succeeded(of course, I don't actually have a night action now, but, every Mod I've ever seen always tells you that you're RBed regardless of whether or not you actually have an action)...so I"m not sure what's going on here..it seems like some kind of outside protection, but, I don't see whom would have randomly protected Rhino before, and I definetely don't see whom would have protected Jobie nor myself last night). If I had to guess, I'd guess that whomever is Cao Cao is doing it(and no, I don't know whom that is, the only person ever identified to me was Jobie, because we had to 'stay alive together' to win, then epeeguy/swinkee when he was found and we became a 'mafia'(sort of), until he died and our win condition reverted.
* - I know people don't believe it, unfortunately, but my reaction yesterday would have been 100% the same even if Swinkee just pulled 2 names out of his ass and there was no truth to them. If anything, I'm most disappointed that the town wanted to hear the names to begin with. Had I been town, I flatly would have told him to STFU and accept the fact that he got killed, and stop trying to interfere w/ the course of the game. I honestly find the integrity of the game itself to be infinitely more important than one win or one loss. Why it happened is impossible to guess(Hell, for all I know, Jobie's win condition could be totally different than mine, maybe he wins if he manages to kill Lu Bu and Dong Zhuo...win conditions in this game seem to fluctuate greatly)...but it doesn't matter why it happened, I feel like his actions were unacceptable because they all occured after he confessed to being the SK and basically signed his own death warrant. I'm honestly considering petitioning that he get suspended from play for awhile, because no one should have to be scum alongside with someone that might ruin the entire game in a temper tantrum, nor should someone that is town have to die because an admitted SK makes up a theory about them being scum because the town doesn't have the moral fiber to tell that person to get lost and let them enjoy the game the way it's meant to be played. Anyway, I just wanted to clarify that.
Well, actually, you did kind of claim a couple of kills, for nights 3 and 4.
I assme you mean you never claimed who you attempted (or otherwise) to kill last 5.
and I never will...
It's a moot point- you were blocked (or so you say) and it didn't happen, so it doesn't really matter who you attempted to kill and it doesn't matter whether you say or not.
That was my point earlier- now that you clarified that the protective aura was on you (not on whoever you tried to kill), it doesn't matter who you actually tried to kill, only who people thought you were going to kill. If the protective aura was on your target, it would have made a difference who your target was.
The entire thing has been rendered pointless in the meantime by Cyan's confession.
I guess it's confession time. Everything that Swinkee said is true. I am Dong Zhuo. Initially, my win condition was to stay alive with Jobie until the end of the game. Later(apparently on Day 1, from what I've been able to confirm with the Mod), Jobie was able to 'recruit' Lu Bu to our cause(I gather that this was not supposed to happen on Day 1, we just got lucky). When he was recruited, we 'became' a mafia(my win condition changed to 'at the end of the game, have as many players alive as everyone else combined'), and we gained the ability to submit a night kill. However, when he died, and I'll never understand what in the world Jobie was thinking there(I'm not allowed to communicate with either of them, ever..this is made abundantly clear to me), my win condition reverted to just 'stay alive with Diao Chan/Jobie until the end of the game'. Huang Yueying was given to me as a safe claim, and I made up the ability for it.
As it stands now, I am Dong Zhuo, Neutral, with no ability whatsoever, my only win condition being to stay alive w/ Diao Chan. If one of us dies, I honestly have no idea what will happen.
Quote from Jobie »
So...what do we do now...
Oh right: Confirm Vote: Cyan. Is it just me or do the scum always pick those who destroyed their mafia as their fake comrades in desperate times?
Assuming Cyan's story is true, the probability that I pick Lu Bu is 1:21 or 1:22, assuming I do or don't know the identity of Dong Zhuo. That's really bad odds. Add in the factor that I have some of the worst luck in the world, and that seems highly improbable.
@Rafaelk: I claimed Pang Tong
That does seem somewhat improbable (finding Lu Bu night one).
And it doesn't seem to explain why you would toss Swinkee over the side so easily either, when he would be your greatest asset to winning.
Then again, your claim doesn't seem particularly strong, either. In fact, at this point it's quite obviously fabricated.
The only problem is, it's impossible to tell which of you is the most dangerous to let live. Both of you are probably still lying, or not giving us the full picture. But although I hate to give a pass to Cyan, he does seem to be the one who is at least willing to feed us the most half-truths, the most grains of truth mixed in with the misinformation. You, on the other hand, seem to have something more critical to hide, that you're uncomfortable to even partially reveal.
Alright, Alright, fine. As much as I've been against this, I guess it's time to save Cyan and my asses. I am Diao Chan. And yes I did get lucky as hell right off the bat. (In fact in my Night 0 PM Fayul called me a Lucksack). I tried to clear myself by outing the SK. I had no clue we were considered "a mafia" mostly because... my objective wasn't reflective to the fact that we were a mafia, in fact it was the same as our objective from the beginning, live to the end of the game. I was hoping to live out the last few days of the game without having to worry about defending myself. Finally, if you still think we're both scum: who's more likely to have a kill, Dong Zhuo or his dancer Diao Chan?
I don't think we want to turn this into Sin City, focusing on the neutrals while the mafia get extra kills.
@Cyan: Do you mean Swinkee or me?
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Jobie is correct in one aspect, I was told that I would be the person submitting the kills that Lu Bu would commit(obviously I never actually submitted one, since he died first).
I haven't claimed. I think half of us still haven't claimed, despite the outing of Jobie/Cyan.
The Jobie story still doesn't work for me. He can recruit someone to kill for him but his objective is still just to live? He threw swinkee overboard to clear himself at a moment where no-one was on his back? I don't buy it.
I don't buy for one second that the win condition for either of them is just "live to the end of the game" (what, they win with either side now?). A second ago Cyan had it as living to be final two, I think, which was blatantly ridiculous and impossible, but Jobie's retconning it to be more palatable. Even that win condition is a threat- it may give them incentive to vote with mafia in an endgame
There also seems to be a dispute as to who submitted kills.
Quote from Cyan »
Jobie is correct in one aspect, I was told that I would be the person submitting the kills that Lu Bu would commit(obviously I never actually submitted one, since he died first).
Umm.... swinkee did do kills, and you guys claimed to have had control of him since night 2...
Jobie's also trying to scaremonger by mentioning Sin City, but this is totally different. We would be lynching ONE neutral, who could potentially win the game if we don't. We would then (as I said earlier) leave the other one alone unless something turned up to incriminate them.
The story isn't straight, guys. They're making it up as they go along. Play safe, lynch Jobie, and then we can finish the Wei without having to watch our backs so much.
I would imagine that Jobie had the same setup as me and is lying still..sadly. My initial, and current win condition was stated as 'Survive with Diao Chan'. Lu Bu was recruited Night 1(this was apparently ridiculously lucky, even Fayul commented on it in his notes to me) by Jobie 'finding' him, and, while Lu Bu was there, we were 3 characters that worked together(but I couldn't communicate with either of them). I was able to submit a Night Kill, which Lu Bu would carry out, though I never got the chance to do so. When he died, Fayul informed me that my win condition had reverted to 'survive with Diao Chan' again. I guess it's possible that he told Jobie something different, but, I don't really see why that would happen, especially since I was in command of the night action of the person that Jobie recruited.
When Jobie 'recruited' Lu Bu, my/Rhino's(and I assume Jobie's) win condition was changed from 'stay alive with Diao Chan' to 'have your team be equal to the number of all other players when the game is over'. We also gained the ability to perform an NK. I would decide who would be NKed, and Lu Bu would carry it out(I assume that this means that, if Lu Bu got RBed, the NK wouldn't happen, but, if I got RBed it wouldn't matter). I assume that Rhino directed epeeguy/swinkee to kill some people(I don't know for sure, as Fayul never told me and I couldn't communicate with epeeguy/swinkee), but, I personally never had the chance to direct him to kill anyone, because Jobie outed him on the same day that I took over for Rhino.
I don't know. I'm thinking Jobie's claim is less stable than Cyan's, although they don't seem to be mutually exclusive. Based on this conversation, I'm thinking it's not dangerous to the town to lynch Jobie, especially with eleven living players and a dead SK. If Cyan's telling the truth, then I'd be interested to see what happens if Jobie dies. Vote Jobie
Then nothing happens except that I can no longer win the game. I guess there's the possibility that Fayul will change my win condition again, since he seems determined to make sure that everyone constantly has a win condition/something to do in this game, but, that's just speculation.
It's very rare (and not well-regarded) to allow a situation where a living player has a win condition that is literally impossible, so I would suspect that either you're lying about your current win condition or it will change if Jobie dies or both. Same goes for him.
I'd say kill Cyan. No matter what happens, if we lynch Jobie, Cyan's going to show up tomorrow with the "townie win condition." We won't know if it's true till it's too late.
Eh.... I'm going to vote Jobie after all, it seems. Same reason as before - if one of the two roleblocked Kenji last night, it's much more likely to be Jobie.
Thought that might have been it. The attempt to scaremonger by raising what happened with the neutral hunting in Sin City was quite nice, though, and might have worked if you weren't so far gone.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
The Southern Mystic shows up once more, yawns, and snaps his fingers, Jobie dissappearing with them. "You hit true once more. This was Diao Chan, an enemy to Shu and Wei alike. Congrationlations on neutralizing her."
The northern Mystic walks up and makes his announcement. "It is now NIGHT. Good luck to all."
__
Actions due to me at 8:56 PDT, Wednesday, June 28th.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
For my Bah post I must say: this is my first time ever being lynched, and my first game I've been non-town. And I've never won a game of mafia...this is my (*counts in head* 8-bit, Random-2, DA, RoTK) 4th game of mafia.
BAH!
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I'll be gone for the next few days, and will have limited access until the 7/8th. I don't anticipate this being a huge problem, as I think I'm cleared, and will most likely have the time to place these votes for the last days here, but if people desire for me to be replaced, so be it.
You awaken to the solemnly familiar sight of the mystic immediately brandishing his mirror. "There have been two people killed tonight." The mirror points to a scene of a forest, with a man lying face-up on the ground with a gaping wound in his chest, with a copious amount of blood scattered about the general area. "This was Dong Zhuo (Cyan), the warlord of this prospective band of miscreants. With his death goes the chance of any distraction upon these proceedings: now, we are left with simply the forces of Shu and Wei."
"Speaking of the Forces of Shu, one of its most revered members has passed on tonight." The mirror points to a scene of the quarters looking just like yours, with a corpse in one of the beds with his throat cut. "This was Zhuge Liang, the most brilliant mind ever to be seen in the land of Shu. His passing will be solemnley mourned.
The northern mystic beings his speech. "There are 8 of you alive, so you will need 5 votes to banish someone today. Good luck."
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
I'm a little torn whether I should mention what happened to me last night. For now, I think I'm going to keep that under wraps. It was definitely a surprise though, I'll say that.
*raises an eyebrow at Arimnaes*
You aren't getting nervous about the town's unkillable (close enough) analyst surviving to the late-game, now are you?
No, of course you wouldn't.
BTW, let's not forget that we're getting close to the end now: only 5 votes to send someone swinging. Let's not get trigger-happy.
OK, so no Xyre and no Cyan. I guess we have Kenji to thank for the lack of Cyan, and since it's confirmed we're now down to Shu v Wei, unless we believe in a mafia member with multiple bonus kills, Kenji's confirmed beyond all reasonable doubt.
Survivors:
1. Azrael
Claimed Ma Chao with a retaliation ability, if I recall correctly. This is an excellent name claim, as one of the Five Tiger Generals, but many have had excellent names provided as false claims (although many, including non-Shu people, have had lousy minor characters as false claims too).
Az' continued survival as a "name" analyst is interesting, although of course his claimed ability provides a reason for that, although of course that's a how conveeeenient, no?
Attracted attention for (IIRC, haven't re-read) being lukewarm on the cpe lynch on day 1, which of course was of a scum. Not that Az mucking up on day 1 has been exactly unusual recently (cheap shot!), but if you can't get information out of who doesn't support a bandwagon on a mafia, where can you get it?
Unarguably a suspect. We might want some analysis on how he's acted SINCE day 1 or day 2; it's day 6 now, and I don't thin we've really looked at Az since.
4. Fadeblue
Has not claimed. Has hinted at knowing stuff here and there (such as hinting at knowing what happened to a missing kill on the night of the missing kills). Attracted my attention a little in the last couple of days by speculating in the direction of flushing the unlynchable player while failing to so much as mention that there should be an unlynchable townie out there too who we do NOT want to flush.
Also has the same argument against him as Az- known analyst, still alive after 6 nights, and in this case no public claim to deter being killed.
It would be ironic if we had two scum left and they were Az and fade
5. RafaelK
I'm biased, so I won't analyze myself. Obviously I put myself into the cleared town basked, but I don't necessarily expect that of anyone else.
7. Arimnaes
No claim, fairly much under the radar so far. Haven't really got a fix. The one thing that stood out was the claim of information that made it about 50% for sure that Kenji was not the SK, which never really came up again (nor did it need to, I must say).
Not cleared; perhaps deserving of some scrutiny just to get out from under the radar.
11. loran16
Can we lynch all lorans just as a metagame thing? Statistically, he's got to be mafia eventually.
The one odd thing with loran here is that he's been lurky. Did he post at all on day 5? But he's been posting in other threads, so it's not because he's not here. It seems like he's been trying to stay out of the way of the town vs Dong Zhuo Mafia thing; since not knowing which side is telling the truth is uncomfortable for the mafia, town v neutral confrontations frequently see mafioso try to stay in the background not committing.
13. KeeperEUSC
Claimed mason with (dead) matjoeman, after matjoeman died. matjoeman's character role of "Shu Scholar" is different to that of both Machin Shin "Shu Ally" and Xyre "Shu Strategist", so no way of telling from those whether matjoeman was a mason or not. matjoeman never (so far as I could tell) made a sign that he was connected to Keeper. So it's quite a weak claim, and Keeper did act quite suspiciously vis a vis the Kenji bandwagon a couple of days ago. I'd say he's fairly high on my list, but isn't everyone uncleared at this point?
17. Abandon Hope
Claimed mason with Xyre, who was alive at the time and is dead now. AH explicitly confirmed that Xyre is town. When asked, Xyre could not confirm that his PM said AH is town (although he, Xyre, thought AH was town anyway).
AH, like Keeper, acted suspiciously on the Kenji wagon.
No other issues at this time.
19. Kenji
Zhang Fei, vig, clear.
So from my perspective, there's 2 clear townies and 6 suspects, and probably either one or two mafia left.
I'd like to wait for everyone else to check in before continuing analysis.
You aren't getting nervous about the town's unkillable (close enough) analyst surviving to the late-game, now are you?
I'm a bit apprehensive that the major results of your analyses so far have been that CPE was town (he was Wei), and that CP and C_F were scum (they were Shu and Wu, respectively.) And I don't remember you saying much during the whole debate about swinkee and Cyan and crew, which has been the big issue for the past 2 game days.
I agree with Raf that loran has been rather unusual this game. He could very possibly be scum.
I also have doubts about AH as Xyre could not explicitly confirm him, but he is low on my list for now.
I had earlier thought Keeper to be possible scum, but I remember some later analysis I did of his posts suggested it to be unlikely. I'd still put him in the toss-up category, though.
Those are my top suspects. Kenji is definitely clear in my mind, and RafK and arimnaes seem townish to me so far.
I'd point out that i started to lurk more in star trek mafia around the same time as i started lurking here, but I was scum in that game.
I have lurked more however only because of being home from school, and having a full time internship now. One might note I am no longer active in the limited forum.
I can confirm myself if needed, but would prefer not to unless we do a mass claim. Incidentally, I almost think there are 2 scum left, because i cannot see Fayul not letting us kill CaoCao if Kenji the vig was not among us. It just wouldnt make sense imo.
For now, I'd like Az to explain what "happened" to him last night. Considering he's a suspect, I'd prefer he not withhold any information from anyone.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I'll full claim, I have no problem doing so to clear myself.
Sun Qian, a scholar Shu. You spent almost all of your time studying tactics with a friend and fellow strategist of yours, Jian Yong (matjoeman).
I'm Sun Qian, a scholar who is a member of the Shu kingdom. Flavor behind the mason ability with myself and matjoeman is that we practice tactics together, and are friends. I was able to talk with matjoeman whenever, but due to my lack of activity early in the game, we never really reaped the benefits. The one time we really comunicated was during the whole role PM mistake, where he claimed Wu, and then a role mistake was realized, and clarified. I had been absent from posting at the beginning of the mass claim, thus never claimed Wu, and by the time I had returned to the game, changes had taken place.
Sorry about the weird wording of that second paragraph, I had typed the information from my role, and then reworded it below, without deleting my chopped up information above.
I am suspicous enough to think that keeper may have faked the syntax mistakes in the above post to make himself look like he copied it directly. Would that count as quoting a PM? If that were a true claim, that is. Paranoia. I'm very suspicous of everyone right now. Except Kenji, Kenji's clear.
I'm a bit apprehensive that the major results of your analyses so far have been that CPE was town (he was Wei), and that CP and C_F were scum (they were Shu and Wu, respectively.) And I don't remember you saying much during the whole debate about swinkee and Cyan and crew, which has been the big issue for the past 2 game days.
Those are understandable concerns, but let's put a few things in perspective. Despite my reputation, I do have a couple weaknesses as a player. For one, I tend to be a little too forgiving towards newbs, perhaps more than I ought to be. And these last few games, I've been putting more work into creating information for other people to analyze, rather than spending hours poring through the thread analyzing it personally. Eventually, I break down and start analyzing hard-core, but that doesn't always happen until the ultra late-game, when I can feel the mafia breathing down my neck, or when we start stalling out. And every once in a while that moment comes to late, like in Random 2.
I need to work on those, but with my summer job keeping me more busy and more tired than I was at college, it's difficult to muster the energy as quickly. But whatever. Everyone has a story and an excuse, and mine is nothing special.
Secondly, when you have a game as information-dry as this one was at the start, and with so many scum going down so quickly during the night, it becomes statistically difficult to actually strike home with a lynch. Although we're beating the hell out of the mafia so far, the town hasn't actually managed to lynch a single Wei except CPE, day one. All told, most of our gains as a town have been made in the night, with the exception of forcing out the DZ mafia and accidentally offing the remaining Wu.
So if your angle is I'm scummish for not producing a scum to lynch, that's very weak. It's been five days since any of us have nailed a true scum for the noose, but the few scummy/neutral players we have had turn up, I've been on to, hard. The scum tells are often the same for both. Given the town's track record so far, and the lack of much of anyone else turning up leads, I don't think I could expect myself to do that much better than I have. There have been too many neutral players acting as blinds and distractions, and too little impetus in any other directions. The only tells anyone has been able to spot have been from neutral players; we haven't really had a choice of other targets popping up at the same time. In other words, information drought, and that is when analysts become the weakest.
If I had to guess what the scum have been up to, I'd guess at least one has been following classic strategy, and keeping their heads down, out of the limelight. We've had a large number of townies ducking in and out of the thread to comment briefly and vote, but very few who have been committing to hard analysis. That kind of situation usually leads to two places: inertia lynches of the people who have been active, because they have a record of some kind, or lurker/info hunts on unreadables. Usually the latter tactic brings more information to light, and that tends to benefit the town the most.
Although I'm sure could argue that I have a few good reasons not to like that first option particularly much at the moment.
Quote from loran16 »
I'd point out that i started to lurk more in star trek mafia around the same time as i started lurking here, but I was scum in that game.
I have lurked more however only because of being home from school, and having a full time internship now. One might note I am no longer active in the limited forum.
I can confirm myself if needed, but would prefer not to unless we do a mass claim. Incidentally, I almost think there are 2 scum left, because i cannot see Fayul not letting us kill CaoCao if Kenji the vig was not among us. It just wouldnt make sense imo.
For now, I'd like Az to explain what "happened" to him last night. Considering he's a suspect, I'd prefer he not withhold any information from anyone.
I was role-blocked last night. And by the MO, CP was responsible (yes, the dead guy).
So if that means what I think it does, that CP can continue to RB from the grave, then that means that each day we have a single townie claim the Mi Heng RB MO, without a missing kill, we can clear that player from being the killing mafia member for that night. And once we're down to only a single mafia left, then we can totally clear people of being in the mafia altogether.
And, if CP does actually hit home on a mafia, and the mafia doesn't claim to have been targeted, he can continue to lock down that player in the night. Eventually, we might be able to nullify the mafia kill entirely, and from there it's simply hide and seek with the lynch to find the last man.
EDIT:
The reason why I was hesitant to talk about that at first was a hope that a surprise RB from CP might possibly trip up the mafia sometime, but once I started thinking of that plan, I figured our best application is probably to come up with a Plan.
In fact, what we may want to do is suggest some kind of protocol for CP's blocking plan, once we're down to a single mafia left, in order to confirm people or force a kill or two to stop. Something along the lines of alphabetical or reverse alphabetical order or play list order, down the line. That way, we could analyze the pattern, and possibly identify who our last man might be.
*frown* Then again, that would also draw the mafia's kills in that direction, once they figured out what the pattern was, even if we asked CP to decide whichever pattern he wanted privately. So that last modification might not be the greatest idea. [/thinking out loud[/]
I am suspicous enough to think that keeper may have faked the syntax mistakes in the above post to make himself look like he copied it directly. Would that count as quoting a PM? If that were a true claim, that is.
Don't fish for modkills.
But to explain a little more, Fayul's apparently leaving it be, and so should we all. I don't like playing the second-guessing game of whether the mod is being lenient or whether the quote isn't a real quote. I would much prefer to stick my head in the sand on this one and pretend it isn't there; there's arguments that it could be faked to look authentic, there's arguments that the error makes it look more real, it's all very WIFOM and a good breeding ground for someone to try and twist something up either to undeservedly clear keeper or to undeservedly bandwagon him. In summary, don't poke at it- it won't help.
And don't fish for modkills.
Az: Dead man walking, eh? Let me try something (and no-one copy please, I'm not trying to get a lynch here, just see if the numbers are a little better than we thought).
vote carrion pigeons Are you there, cp?
Of course, claiming to be blocked by a dead man conveniently excuses you of being the killing mafia last night, and we aren't really in a position to confirm it unless cp or someone else owns up to knowing about this. Confirmation via dead man appears to be an epidemic. I will be pretty shocked if we don't have at least one mafia between Az, AH and keeper.
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However, Xyre, Jobie did not claim "unnightkillable Shu" (if he wants to claim that, it's a good time). Besides, Kenji has indicated the ability was used on him, not on Jobie.
Overall, I think Jobie is still the play. The timeline issue with his role, and the gameplay issues (ie. 4 days to find out the result, the inconvenience of having to wait until all the other night choices are in and the kill is sure and then having to ask Jobie for a choice afterwards, the vagueness of him finding out "connections" of the person, him not hinting at all at the existence of a Dong Zhuo scum in addition to the Wei scum at all prior to yesterday...) still fail to ring true to me; it's just that bit off in a few directions, which says to me it's a false claim.
There's also the point that someone blocked the town vig to keep Jobie alive.
Cyan's claim also has issues, and he was apparenly blocked by CP at the same time as we had no extra kill.
Both of them, of course, came under suspicion due to swinkee- and swinkee's story about being recruited and so forth also has credibility problems (especially that it seems like it would have to be a scripted interaction as fadeblue has said, but a scripted interaction involving the forced night 1 death of a player?).
vote Jobie seems to be the most expedient way of dealing with this, though. The roleblock on Kenji has bought him a day; I don't think it should buy him more than that.
Now there's an interesting vote.
I'll start from the bottom up. Unless I missed something, Kenji has not claimed who he targetted last night. So I don't know why you assume he targetted me.
Second, I have already stated that there isn't a "timeline issue" because I was told about most of the kills before they happened. On the connections issue: it would tell me who the person was connected to if they were. It was pretty much to tell me who a certain mafioso was connected to, but I guess it worked to find the Dong Zhuo deal.
Oh, and as far as I know I'm not an unkillable townie.
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As it stands now, I am Dong Zhuo, Neutral, with no ability whatsoever, my only win condition being to stay alive w/ Diao Chan. If one of us dies, I honestly have no idea what will happen.
It's correct that Kenji hasn't formally confirmed it was Jobie. However, everyone would have assumed last night that it was Jobie he was going to vig, so if Kenji was roleblocked it seems probably that it was for the purpose of protecting Jobie, not Cyan (even if Kenji has privately changed his mind and planned on killing Cyan).
Abandon Hope: Much as we all enjoy enigmatic votes out of the blue, a reason would be nice. Are you saying that you have proof that Azrael caused the aura on Kenji? That would set the cat among the pigeons for sure.
Jobie: timeline issue is that even on your version, Fayul had to go through all other night actions (in case a block or protection changed matters), then tell you, then wait for your response, then finish night. That's really annoying from a modding point of view, and as I think cp pointed out it could be dealt with much more easily by making you use the ability the next night on the kills from the first night and just accelerating the information gain by a night.
Jobie, did you claim character? I don't recall you doing so; it might be a good idea. I'd like to know the flavour behind all this slow-investigation stuff, see if there's any coherence there.
Sarnathed by Cyan. Well, well.
As long as a Dong Zhuo kill doesn't show up, I'm more than happy to leave Cyan alive and kill off Jobie.
Reasons:
1) They may be lying about the alternate win condition and we're much safer if we break them up. Final 2 for a pair without a kill is ridiculously difficult, but surviving together to final 4 is a reasonably common type of win condition for "lovers".
2) Jobie lynched instead of Cyan because he threw swinkee overboard and may have something else going on that swinkee/Cyan didn't know about. He could be a mafia spy in the Dong Zhuo group and was ordered to throw Lu Bu out because Lu Bu wanted to kill off another mafia member or something. Who knows? Hey, Cyan, who were you guys planning on killing next?
3) Leave Cyan alone after lynching Jobie because we still have Wei out there. If we remove the Wei and Cyan's still with us, we might go look at him again.
I assume you're claiming info here?
Oh right: Confirm Vote: Cyan. Is it just me or do the scum always pick those who destroyed their mafia as their fake comrades in desperate times?
Assuming Cyan's story is true, the probability that I pick Lu Bu is 1:21 or 1:22, assuming I do or don't know the identity of Dong Zhuo. That's really bad odds. Add in the factor that I have some of the worst luck in the world, and that seems highly improbable.
@Rafaelk: I claimed Pang Tong
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'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
I am not claiming anything ariminaes. My vote is because I'm suspicous of Az. My words, well, it's a threat right? The smilie face seemed like the thing to do.
On an unrelated note, trying to use a statement like 'I have bad luck' as an example for why someone's statement isn't true is so ridiculously bad that it's not even funny.
FWIW, I honestly know nothing about why Kenji's attempt at vigging one of us failed. I know that CP claimed to have tried to RB Rhinocero earlier in the game, and described the same 'magic aura' as stopping him, but, he also RBed me last night and succeeded(of course, I don't actually have a night action now, but, every Mod I've ever seen always tells you that you're RBed regardless of whether or not you actually have an action)...so I"m not sure what's going on here..it seems like some kind of outside protection, but, I don't see whom would have randomly protected Rhino before, and I definetely don't see whom would have protected Jobie nor myself last night). If I had to guess, I'd guess that whomever is Cao Cao is doing it(and no, I don't know whom that is, the only person ever identified to me was Jobie, because we had to 'stay alive together' to win, then epeeguy/swinkee when he was found and we became a 'mafia'(sort of), until he died and our win condition reverted.
* - I know people don't believe it, unfortunately, but my reaction yesterday would have been 100% the same even if Swinkee just pulled 2 names out of his ass and there was no truth to them. If anything, I'm most disappointed that the town wanted to hear the names to begin with. Had I been town, I flatly would have told him to STFU and accept the fact that he got killed, and stop trying to interfere w/ the course of the game. I honestly find the integrity of the game itself to be infinitely more important than one win or one loss. Why it happened is impossible to guess(Hell, for all I know, Jobie's win condition could be totally different than mine, maybe he wins if he manages to kill Lu Bu and Dong Zhuo...win conditions in this game seem to fluctuate greatly)...but it doesn't matter why it happened, I feel like his actions were unacceptable because they all occured after he confessed to being the SK and basically signed his own death warrant. I'm honestly considering petitioning that he get suspended from play for awhile, because no one should have to be scum alongside with someone that might ruin the entire game in a temper tantrum, nor should someone that is town have to die because an admitted SK makes up a theory about them being scum because the town doesn't have the moral fiber to tell that person to get lost and let them enjoy the game the way it's meant to be played. Anyway, I just wanted to clarify that.
Well, actually, you did kind of claim a couple of kills, for nights 3 and 4.
I assme you mean you never claimed who you attempted (or otherwise) to kill last 5.
It's a moot point- you were blocked (or so you say) and it didn't happen, so it doesn't really matter who you attempted to kill and it doesn't matter whether you say or not.
That was my point earlier- now that you clarified that the protective aura was on you (not on whoever you tried to kill), it doesn't matter who you actually tried to kill, only who people thought you were going to kill. If the protective aura was on your target, it would have made a difference who your target was.
The entire thing has been rendered pointless in the meantime by Cyan's confession.
That does seem somewhat improbable (finding Lu Bu night one).
And it doesn't seem to explain why you would toss Swinkee over the side so easily either, when he would be your greatest asset to winning.
Then again, your claim doesn't seem particularly strong, either. In fact, at this point it's quite obviously fabricated.
The only problem is, it's impossible to tell which of you is the most dangerous to let live. Both of you are probably still lying, or not giving us the full picture. But although I hate to give a pass to Cyan, he does seem to be the one who is at least willing to feed us the most half-truths, the most grains of truth mixed in with the misinformation. You, on the other hand, seem to have something more critical to hide, that you're uncomfortable to even partially reveal.
Vote Jobie.
If Jobie dies and is a neutral of some kind, are we vigging Cyan or not?
I don't think we want to turn this into Sin City, focusing on the neutrals while the mafia get extra kills.
@Cyan: Do you mean Swinkee or me?
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I'm considering voting for Azrael, actually, but I think I'm going to need to (shudder) reread.
If we can determine who the unlynchable person is, then we've found a target for you.
And I would hope that the unlynchability is not permanent.
Did it ever occur to anyone we still haven't found a scum roleblocker yet? I'm seriously hoping Cao Cao isn't a scum roleblocker.
I think at least half of us have claimed and/or been confirmed. The question is, who hasn't claimed yet?
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
The Jobie story still doesn't work for me. He can recruit someone to kill for him but his objective is still just to live? He threw swinkee overboard to clear himself at a moment where no-one was on his back? I don't buy it.
I don't buy for one second that the win condition for either of them is just "live to the end of the game" (what, they win with either side now?). A second ago Cyan had it as living to be final two, I think, which was blatantly ridiculous and impossible, but Jobie's retconning it to be more palatable. Even that win condition is a threat- it may give them incentive to vote with mafia in an endgame
There also seems to be a dispute as to who submitted kills.
Umm.... swinkee did do kills, and you guys claimed to have had control of him since night 2...
Jobie's also trying to scaremonger by mentioning Sin City, but this is totally different. We would be lynching ONE neutral, who could potentially win the game if we don't. We would then (as I said earlier) leave the other one alone unless something turned up to incriminate them.
The story isn't straight, guys. They're making it up as they go along. Play safe, lynch Jobie, and then we can finish the Wei without having to watch our backs so much.
Um, no offense good sir, but what the hell are you talking about?
Vote Jobie
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Might as well claim this as I'm dieing. My current objective is: Kill Dong Zhuo.
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
The northern Mystic walks up and makes his announcement. "It is now NIGHT. Good luck to all."
__
Actions due to me at 8:56 PDT, Wednesday, June 28th.
BAH!
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
"Speaking of the Forces of Shu, one of its most revered members has passed on tonight." The mirror points to a scene of the quarters looking just like yours, with a corpse in one of the beds with his throat cut. "This was Zhuge Liang, the most brilliant mind ever to be seen in the land of Shu. His passing will be solemnley mourned.
The northern mystic beings his speech. "There are 8 of you alive, so you will need 5 votes to banish someone today. Good luck."
I'm a little torn whether I should mention what happened to me last night. For now, I think I'm going to keep that under wraps. It was definitely a surprise though, I'll say that.
*raises an eyebrow at Arimnaes*
You aren't getting nervous about the town's unkillable (close enough) analyst surviving to the late-game, now are you?
No, of course you wouldn't.
BTW, let's not forget that we're getting close to the end now: only 5 votes to send someone swinging. Let's not get trigger-happy.
Survivors:
1. Azrael
Claimed Ma Chao with a retaliation ability, if I recall correctly. This is an excellent name claim, as one of the Five Tiger Generals, but many have had excellent names provided as false claims (although many, including non-Shu people, have had lousy minor characters as false claims too).
Az' continued survival as a "name" analyst is interesting, although of course his claimed ability provides a reason for that, although of course that's a how conveeeenient, no?
Attracted attention for (IIRC, haven't re-read) being lukewarm on the cpe lynch on day 1, which of course was of a scum. Not that Az mucking up on day 1 has been exactly unusual recently (cheap shot!), but if you can't get information out of who doesn't support a bandwagon on a mafia, where can you get it?
Unarguably a suspect. We might want some analysis on how he's acted SINCE day 1 or day 2; it's day 6 now, and I don't thin we've really looked at Az since.
4. Fadeblue
Has not claimed. Has hinted at knowing stuff here and there (such as hinting at knowing what happened to a missing kill on the night of the missing kills). Attracted my attention a little in the last couple of days by speculating in the direction of flushing the unlynchable player while failing to so much as mention that there should be an unlynchable townie out there too who we do NOT want to flush.
Also has the same argument against him as Az- known analyst, still alive after 6 nights, and in this case no public claim to deter being killed.
It would be ironic if we had two scum left and they were Az and fade
5. RafaelK
I'm biased, so I won't analyze myself. Obviously I put myself into the cleared town basked, but I don't necessarily expect that of anyone else.
7. Arimnaes
No claim, fairly much under the radar so far. Haven't really got a fix. The one thing that stood out was the claim of information that made it about 50% for sure that Kenji was not the SK, which never really came up again (nor did it need to, I must say).
Not cleared; perhaps deserving of some scrutiny just to get out from under the radar.
11. loran16
Can we lynch all lorans just as a metagame thing? Statistically, he's got to be mafia eventually.
The one odd thing with loran here is that he's been lurky. Did he post at all on day 5? But he's been posting in other threads, so it's not because he's not here. It seems like he's been trying to stay out of the way of the town vs Dong Zhuo Mafia thing; since not knowing which side is telling the truth is uncomfortable for the mafia, town v neutral confrontations frequently see mafioso try to stay in the background not committing.
13. KeeperEUSC
Claimed mason with (dead) matjoeman, after matjoeman died. matjoeman's character role of "Shu Scholar" is different to that of both Machin Shin "Shu Ally" and Xyre "Shu Strategist", so no way of telling from those whether matjoeman was a mason or not. matjoeman never (so far as I could tell) made a sign that he was connected to Keeper. So it's quite a weak claim, and Keeper did act quite suspiciously vis a vis the Kenji bandwagon a couple of days ago. I'd say he's fairly high on my list, but isn't everyone uncleared at this point?
17. Abandon Hope
Claimed mason with Xyre, who was alive at the time and is dead now. AH explicitly confirmed that Xyre is town. When asked, Xyre could not confirm that his PM said AH is town (although he, Xyre, thought AH was town anyway).
AH, like Keeper, acted suspiciously on the Kenji wagon.
No other issues at this time.
19. Kenji
Zhang Fei, vig, clear.
So from my perspective, there's 2 clear townies and 6 suspects, and probably either one or two mafia left.
I'd like to wait for everyone else to check in before continuing analysis.
Can't get a break. Go town.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I'm a bit apprehensive that the major results of your analyses so far have been that CPE was town (he was Wei), and that CP and C_F were scum (they were Shu and Wu, respectively.) And I don't remember you saying much during the whole debate about swinkee and Cyan and crew, which has been the big issue for the past 2 game days.
I agree with Raf that loran has been rather unusual this game. He could very possibly be scum.
I also have doubts about AH as Xyre could not explicitly confirm him, but he is low on my list for now.
I had earlier thought Keeper to be possible scum, but I remember some later analysis I did of his posts suggested it to be unlikely. I'd still put him in the toss-up category, though.
Those are my top suspects. Kenji is definitely clear in my mind, and RafK and arimnaes seem townish to me so far.
I have lurked more however only because of being home from school, and having a full time internship now. One might note I am no longer active in the limited forum.
I can confirm myself if needed, but would prefer not to unless we do a mass claim. Incidentally, I almost think there are 2 scum left, because i cannot see Fayul not letting us kill CaoCao if Kenji the vig was not among us. It just wouldnt make sense imo.
For now, I'd like Az to explain what "happened" to him last night. Considering he's a suspect, I'd prefer he not withhold any information from anyone.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Sun Qian, a scholar Shu. You spent almost all of your time studying tactics with a friend and fellow strategist of yours, Jian Yong (matjoeman).
I'm Sun Qian, a scholar who is a member of the Shu kingdom. Flavor behind the mason ability with myself and matjoeman is that we practice tactics together, and are friends. I was able to talk with matjoeman whenever, but due to my lack of activity early in the game, we never really reaped the benefits. The one time we really comunicated was during the whole role PM mistake, where he claimed Wu, and then a role mistake was realized, and clarified. I had been absent from posting at the beginning of the mass claim, thus never claimed Wu, and by the time I had returned to the game, changes had taken place.
Sorry about the weird wording of that second paragraph, I had typed the information from my role, and then reworded it below, without deleting my chopped up information above.
Those are understandable concerns, but let's put a few things in perspective. Despite my reputation, I do have a couple weaknesses as a player. For one, I tend to be a little too forgiving towards newbs, perhaps more than I ought to be. And these last few games, I've been putting more work into creating information for other people to analyze, rather than spending hours poring through the thread analyzing it personally. Eventually, I break down and start analyzing hard-core, but that doesn't always happen until the ultra late-game, when I can feel the mafia breathing down my neck, or when we start stalling out. And every once in a while that moment comes to late, like in Random 2.
I need to work on those, but with my summer job keeping me more busy and more tired than I was at college, it's difficult to muster the energy as quickly. But whatever. Everyone has a story and an excuse, and mine is nothing special.
Secondly, when you have a game as information-dry as this one was at the start, and with so many scum going down so quickly during the night, it becomes statistically difficult to actually strike home with a lynch. Although we're beating the hell out of the mafia so far, the town hasn't actually managed to lynch a single Wei except CPE, day one. All told, most of our gains as a town have been made in the night, with the exception of forcing out the DZ mafia and accidentally offing the remaining Wu.
So if your angle is I'm scummish for not producing a scum to lynch, that's very weak. It's been five days since any of us have nailed a true scum for the noose, but the few scummy/neutral players we have had turn up, I've been on to, hard. The scum tells are often the same for both. Given the town's track record so far, and the lack of much of anyone else turning up leads, I don't think I could expect myself to do that much better than I have. There have been too many neutral players acting as blinds and distractions, and too little impetus in any other directions. The only tells anyone has been able to spot have been from neutral players; we haven't really had a choice of other targets popping up at the same time. In other words, information drought, and that is when analysts become the weakest.
If I had to guess what the scum have been up to, I'd guess at least one has been following classic strategy, and keeping their heads down, out of the limelight. We've had a large number of townies ducking in and out of the thread to comment briefly and vote, but very few who have been committing to hard analysis. That kind of situation usually leads to two places: inertia lynches of the people who have been active, because they have a record of some kind, or lurker/info hunts on unreadables. Usually the latter tactic brings more information to light, and that tends to benefit the town the most.
Although I'm sure could argue that I have a few good reasons not to like that first option particularly much at the moment.
I was role-blocked last night. And by the MO, CP was responsible (yes, the dead guy).
So if that means what I think it does, that CP can continue to RB from the grave, then that means that each day we have a single townie claim the Mi Heng RB MO, without a missing kill, we can clear that player from being the killing mafia member for that night. And once we're down to only a single mafia left, then we can totally clear people of being in the mafia altogether.
And, if CP does actually hit home on a mafia, and the mafia doesn't claim to have been targeted, he can continue to lock down that player in the night. Eventually, we might be able to nullify the mafia kill entirely, and from there it's simply hide and seek with the lynch to find the last man.
EDIT:
The reason why I was hesitant to talk about that at first was a hope that a surprise RB from CP might possibly trip up the mafia sometime, but once I started thinking of that plan, I figured our best application is probably to come up with a Plan.
In fact, what we may want to do is suggest some kind of protocol for CP's blocking plan, once we're down to a single mafia left, in order to confirm people or force a kill or two to stop. Something along the lines of alphabetical or reverse alphabetical order or play list order, down the line. That way, we could analyze the pattern, and possibly identify who our last man might be.
*frown* Then again, that would also draw the mafia's kills in that direction, once they figured out what the pattern was, even if we asked CP to decide whichever pattern he wanted privately. So that last modification might not be the greatest idea. [/thinking out loud[/]
Don't fish for modkills.
But to explain a little more, Fayul's apparently leaving it be, and so should we all. I don't like playing the second-guessing game of whether the mod is being lenient or whether the quote isn't a real quote. I would much prefer to stick my head in the sand on this one and pretend it isn't there; there's arguments that it could be faked to look authentic, there's arguments that the error makes it look more real, it's all very WIFOM and a good breeding ground for someone to try and twist something up either to undeservedly clear keeper or to undeservedly bandwagon him. In summary, don't poke at it- it won't help.
And don't fish for modkills.
Az: Dead man walking, eh? Let me try something (and no-one copy please, I'm not trying to get a lynch here, just see if the numbers are a little better than we thought).
vote carrion pigeons Are you there, cp?
Of course, claiming to be blocked by a dead man conveniently excuses you of being the killing mafia last night, and we aren't really in a position to confirm it unless cp or someone else owns up to knowing about this. Confirmation via dead man appears to be an epidemic. I will be pretty shocked if we don't have at least one mafia between Az, AH and keeper.