fos Azrael, though I've only just gotten back to the States, so I'm just beginning my reread.
EBWODP: Have read most of day 1 so far, up to the CPE debacle. Right now, the mafia is definitely looking like Az and Keeper.
This was keeper right after CPE made his blunder of claiming Wu without knowing about the safe claims, and SOS had gotten on and made some angry posts without nation-claiming:
Quote from KeeperEUSC »
My vote's between SOS and CPE at the moment. I believe the reasons for CPE have been quite clear above, so I fail to see a need to restate them again.
As for SOS, the fact that now twice he's gotten on and not claimed frustrates me. FOS: SOS
Wants to appear like he's against CPE, while secretly hoping SOS will make a bigger spectacle out of himself.
Azrael chipped in with this:
Quote from Azrael »
Vote SOS for pressure. If we're all claiming, we're all claiming.
As for CPE...he was a little off. But let's not forget that this is imhungry we're dealing with, and the tell wasn't a major one.
Dismisses CPE's actions as "a tell." Jumps on SOS.
Then, after SOS had posted again without bothering to nation-claim:
Quote from KeeperEUSC »
unFOS, Vote SOS
Simply for pressure, so that he'll stop screwing around, nation claim, and let us make a decision.
Seems like a concerted effort on both of their parts to shift the focus off of CPE. I doubt the mafia thought they were going to get a lynch on SOS just for being late in claiming, but it could have been a valuable distraction... especially since they could use the time to coach CPE, as the mafia have daytalk.
Then, Azrael posts this:
Quote from Azrael »
I'm going to barn Chamber once again. We can't afford to pursue the Wu at this point. Let the mafia pick them off by accident, while we spend our lynches pursuing mafia instead of getting side-tracked into killing possible traitors. Take note of who they are, but leave them be for now.
Minor FOS C_F, for that. We cannot afford to regard the Wu as enemies atm, and waste our lynches on them. That's a sure-fire path to defeat.
Completely missing the point, of course, that CPE is under fire for being possible/likely Wei, not because people believe him that he is Wu and want to lynch him anyway. This is a signifcant distortion of the current argument, and very un-Azrael-like (unless he's mafia with CPE, of course.)
Finally, Keeper says this:
Quote from KeeperEUSC »
unvote SOS
I'm going to probably end up being Chamber and Az's barn once again here, as I don't see it time to kill off Wu. We have to focus on eliminating the mafia at the moment, and the only lead we have currently is cpe, who I don't feel is mafia, but rather, a confused Wu member.
First obliquely, then directly, suggesting that CPE is Wu rather than Wei, and that going after Wu is bad.
This is just something that caught my eye; I'll continue working on the reread. So far, Raf and fadeblue are acting quite town. Raf was balls-out in favor of the nation claim and anti-CPE; fadeblue was unsure of the nation-claim at first but got on board, and was pretty anti-CPE as well.
EBWODP: Have read most of day 1 so far, up to the CPE debacle. Right now, the mafia is definitely looking like Az and Keeper.
This was keeper right after CPE made his blunder of claiming Wu without knowing about the safe claims, and SOS had gotten on and made some angry posts without nation-claiming:
Wants to appear like he's against CPE, while secretly hoping SOS will make a bigger spectacle out of himself.
At this time, matjoeman and I were under the impression that we were Wu, as there was initially an error in our roll PM's. Thus, I wasn't tempted at the moment to out someone on my own side.
Then, after SOS had posted again without bothering to nation-claim:
[COLOR=magenta]
[COLOR=Black]Seems like a concerted effort on both of their parts to shift the focus off of CPE. I doubt the mafia thought they were going to get a lynch on SOS just for being late in claiming, but it could have been a valuable distraction... especially since they could use the time to coach CPE, as the mafia have daytalk.
By this point, my roll has been switched, and I was just looking to get through the rest of the claims.
Finally, Keeper says this:
[COLOR=magenta][COLOR=Black]
First obliquely, then directly, suggesting that CPE is Wu rather than Wei, and that going after Wu is bad.
I did believe that going after Wu was bad at that time. Earlier that day, I was under the impression that I was Wu. I've my roll easy was changed to Shu, than did it not make sense for the two companys to be friendly? That is how matjoeman and I saw it at the time. In hindsight, this proved to be untrue.
Day 1 was very much a nightmare for matjoeman and I, as we debated what to do about everyone claiming Shu, then had our rolls changed, and had to reapproach the game.[/color]
[color=magenta]EBWODP: Excuse the hideous color tags that don't add up, quote feature is worthless.[/color]
The Northern Mystic chimes in after that. “And that is the end of the Kingdom of Wu. It shows great foresight on the part of those who vanquished them: while they may be allies now, they may have become powerful enemies of Shu somewhere down the road.
She said that all the Wu were gone. And what's more, she blatantly implied that the Wu were going to turn on the Shu at some point. So, if you are in fact Wu, I don't see how you plan on "winning with the Shu."
Also,
Quote from Kenji »
A FACADE HOOF TIM TIN RUNS <---- that will be explained at a later date.
You might as well have written, "Here there be anagrams."
This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Kenji were Shu, I see absolutely no reason for him to do this. If he were Wu, I still don't see any reason for him to do this. And if he is somehow Wei, I see less than zero reason for him to do this.
If Kenji is right that there are more Wu, then we Shu are well and truly boned.
No more Wu, claim of Zhang Fei - vig which works really nicely, townie play, and on the brink of victory with himself absolutely cleared, he claims Wu to clear himself?
Everything pointed at the Wu having been ready to become a new mafia when the Wei ended, hmmm?
Gut feeling is Kenji is running a gambit and should be safely ignored. Worst case is he's trying to shield Az now that a majority consensus for the Az lynch has been achieved. In which case Kenji should still be ignored.
Incidentally...
A FACADE HOOF TIM TIN RUNS
=
IM A CAT NOT A FRIEND OF SHU
I can probably puzzle it out correctly later. I would be stunned if "friend" and "shu" aren't in there for real. It's vaguely possible that Kenji has typod his anagram and that "cat" should be "cao", but in that case who knows whether he's saying he is a friend of Shu or he's not?
Damn, I hate complications when things were starting to look simple.
Kenji claimed kills on Hunted Charlie and chamber. What exactly happened on night 3, fadeblue? And what did A_H think happened? If we're sure that what you were dealing with was the mafia kill, and we already know that the SK went after carrion pigeons that night, then Kenji must be truthing about the kill on Hunted Charlie.
Also, swinkee said that for whatever reason, he wasn't instructed to kill on night 4. Probably because Rhino went MIA around that time, who knows. Anyways, with no SK kill that night, it makes sense that Kenji could have killed chamber while the mafia killed Matjoeman (I think).
This stuff checks out, and it seems to exonerate Kenji from being Wei, unless the Wei are hideously broken. Except now he's apparently Wu, except that there are no Wu left. Uh...
@Azrael: Did you claim to reflect kills, or did you claim that you and your attacker would both die?
I'm very, very interested in hearing what Kenji might have to say. The primary reason the town is considering lynching me is based on his claim to have targeted me last night as vig, so if his story doesn't check out after all...
I would say the primary reason is that he was blocked, not that he wanted to target you in the first place.
I was under the mistaken impression that Az claimed kill-reflection, rather than martyrdom. In that case, I don't see how he could possibly be town, because with 7 alive going into night, they could have simply killed loran and let Kenji and Az die, and that would be game, set, and match.
Fayul, if it's not too much trouble, do you think you could update the first page with when and how people were killed? After day 3 it just lists them as being dead, and I'm having a hard time remembering if they were lynched or nightkilled or what.
As weird as this situation is, Kenji being Wei simply doesn't add up, between the kills on chamber, HC, and Cyan. Kenji, if you are Shu and pulling some kind of gambit, please desist. It's unnecessary and unhelpful.
I'm prepared to vote for Azrael right now; I simply don't see any way the facts could add up to him being town.
Yeah, I can't really see any way around that. Well, Kenji could have just chosen not to attack Az and then claim to be blocked, but in that case the real block (which we know exists) has gone missing and it doesn't make sense in line with Kenji's previous actions anyway.
I think there should be some more of us about, I think this way we can clear some more and find the last remaining scum and win with the Shu.
He was probably hoping a Wei would go "Hi guys I'm actually Wu", and then we could lynch their lying ass. Not a particularly devious trap, but worth a try I suppose.
"This was Dong Zhuo (Cyan), the warlord of this prospective band of miscreants. With his death goes the chance of any distraction upon these proceedings: now, we are left with simply the forces of Shu and Wei."
She also said all the neutrals were dead. So are you saying that you're Shu who can also win w/ the Wei?
Because if I'm sure that there are 2 scum left then I can win today with them, that's why.
Newsflash- you and two scum voting together can't get a majority lynch yet. Please consider winning with the town as an attractive option.
If you're neutral, it's also possible that Cao Cao is actually the last scum. There's a limit to the amount of non-Shu roles possible. In which case your attempt to change sides is very, very badly timed.
Newsflash 2:
Quote from Kenji »
I'm what would be known as a survivor role on IRC mafia, all I care about is being there at the end when one side wins. Be that Shu or be that Wei.
Quote from Kenji »
I don't mind vigging Az, I'm not afraid of a retaliatory killing role.
Kenji, I'd suggest you cooperate with the Shu, at least while I'm alive. You see, I left one teensy detail out of my roleclaim, on the off chance you somehow turned out to be anti-town. Remember that gaping chest wound? Let's just say I didn't patch it up as tightly as I could have...
I say the word, and you die. Now kindly vote Azrael, and vig some Wei tonight. Capice?
Well, that might make those random early vigging's much easier to explain. You could have been trying to speed up the game and bring us to the end-game sooner.
So, if we believe you're telling the truth, we're facing two other mafia still, and the town can't afford to lynch you. Which works out very nicely for you, no matter what alignment you actually are, townie, neutral, or scum.
But now, you're also claiming a day-kill on top of that, which is a little weird for a townie vig. And since I'm here, I know that you didn't target me last night as a townie vig, so you were definitely lying about that.
Add that in with the possiblity that Fayul considered a retaliatory killer a good counter-balance for not giving the town a vig, and factor in the huge role of false claims in this game, and we might have a case here. Especially since as far as I can tell from the first page, we never had more than two kills on any given night (there might have been an attempted kill stuck in there on FB, but was that a night that we only had a single kill?). And most of the time when you were scheduled to vig a target designated by the town, that kill would mysteriously never go through. But if you're mafia, with a day-kill to "confirm" your vig-abilities, then that particular mystery is much easier to explain.
The only thing that makes me wonder is this:
Quote from Arimnaes »
As weird as this situation is, Kenji being Wei simply doesn't add up, between the kills on chamber, HC, and Cyan.
Because Lu Bu had already died, and we still had two kills on the following nights? Or am I missing something else in the kill pattern? That seems to be the biggest hurdle to the "Kenji is Wei" possibility. It would require something pretty unlikely, like an extra mafia kill, to explain that inconsistency. So if that's true, then yeah, it would definitely seem to indicate he's neutral or town.
PPE:
Quote from Arimnaes »
Screw this. vote Azrael.
Kenji, I'd suggest you cooperate with the Shu, at least while I'm alive. You see, I left one teensy detail out of my roleclaim, on the off chance you somehow turned out to be anti-town. Remember that gaping chest wound? Let's just say I didn't patch it up as tightly as I could have...
I say the word, and you die. Now kindly vote Azrael, and vig some Wei tonight. Capice?
Are you kidding me?
Firstly, now that Kenji has claimed neutral, all bets are off on his having targeted me last night: as a neutral survivor, he would have no reason to do so. And, if he's telling the truth, then a counter-killing vig is an excellent solution to making the primary vig a neutral, which makes my claim much stronger.
Secondly, you just invented a new ability out of thin air, when the town had already asked everyone to fully claim. Did you simply neglect to mention that part of your ability? Or are you trying to force a lynch before the town puts the pieces together?
Thirdly, we've already had two "docs" (or semi-docs) claim, which means there's not a half-bad possibility that one of the two of you is lying.
Fourth, why the hasty vote there? Why are we in a rush to end the day so quickly, before discussion is complete?
Your last post raises a lot of questions, Arimnaes. Mind answering them?
But if you're mafia, with a day-kill to "confirm" your vig-abilities, then that particular mystery is much easier to explain.
He would also have to have several extra nightkills, unless I'm missing something.
Quote from Azrael »
Firstly, now that Kenji has claimed neutral, all bets are off on his having targeted me last night: as a neutral survivor, he would have no reason to do so.
He also claimed to have been roleblocked. Whether or not he actually targeted you is irrelevant; he declared he was going to target you the previous day, and then the mafia (because no townie's roleclaim has accounted for it) roleblocked him.
Quote from Azrael »
And, if he's telling the truth, then a counter-killing vig is an excellent solution to making the primary vig a neutral, which makes my claim much stronger.
First, I would hardly describe your role as a vig. Second, you realize that a neutral survivor vig would be strictly better than an SK, and would have no reason not to act like a second SK? If anything, the fact that Kenji has only killed three times suggests that he's not just a neutral vig.
Quote from Azrael »
Secondly, you just invented a new ability out of thin air, when the town had already asked everyone to fully claim. Did you simply neglect to mention that part of your ability? Or are you trying to force a lynch before the town puts the pieces together?
I neglected to mention it, because at the time I thought Kenji was virutally confirmed town, so I wouldn't have to use it. But I'm willing to use it now, as a means of forcing Kenji to play for the Shu until I die.
Quote from Azrael »
Thirdly, we've already had two "docs" (or semi-docs) claim, which means there's not a half-bad possibility that one of the two of you is lying.
True. But keep in mind that my doctor ability has been confirmed by a player who, it now appears, could just have easily decided to disavow it. Also, swinkee confirmed that he tried and failed to kill carrion pigeons on night 3. So, you can believe me or not on whether I have the ability I say I have now, but I am a doctor.
Quote from Azrael »
Fourth, why the hasty vote there? Why are we in a rush to end the day so quickly, before discussion is complete?
Because I am now completely convinced that you're Wei? If others want to discuss, then by all means, let them do so. Just thought I'd give Kenji a friendly prod and make my intentions clear.
He also claimed to have been roleblocked. Whether or not he actually targeted you is irrelevant; he declared he was going to target you the previous day, and then the mafia (because no townie's roleclaim has accounted for it) roleblocked him.
Did they? Or did he claim that merely to explain why I was still alive today?
I'll say it again: now that Kenji has claimed neutral, the theory that my survival today condemns me is nullified.
Quote from Arimnaes »
First, I would hardly describe your role as a vig.
It's a role that kills scum during the night without using the lynch. It's not so different, in fact, you could argue that it's slightly better, since there's little to no chance of misfiring. And on an analyst, if I hadn't been forced to claim early on...
Quote from Arimnaes »
Second, you realize that a neutral survivor vig would be strictly better than an SK, and would have no reason not to act like a second SK? If anything, the fact that Kenji has only killed three times suggests that he's not just a neutral vig.
It depends on whether he was worried about being nailed as an anti-town force by the town.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I neglected to mention it, because at the time I thought Kenji was virutally confirmed town, so I wouldn't have to use it. But I'm willing to use it now, as a means of forcing Kenji to play for the Shu until I die.
But why didn't you fully disclose your abilities to the town, when you were asked to do so?
It's a major part of your ability, so randomly forgetting to mention doesn't seem very likely.
Quote from Arimnaes »
True. But keep in mind that my doctor ability has been confirmed by a player who, it now appears, could just have easily decided to disavow it.
Kenji? That would have created a his credilibility vs. your credibility situation, which he wouldn't have much incentive to get into.
Quote from Arimnaes »
Also, swinkee confirmed that he tried and failed to kill carrion pigeons on night 3. So, you can believe me or not on whether I have the ability I say I have now, but I am a doctor.
So we're trusting the word of the SK?
Quote from Arimnaes »
Because I am now completely convinced that you're Wei? If others want to discuss, then by all means, let them do so. Just thought I'd give Kenji a friendly prod and make my intentions clear.
A friendly prod? That's an interesting euphemism for blackmail.
Did they? Or did he claim that merely to explain why I was still alive today?
I'll say it again: now that Kenji has claimed neutral, the theory that my survival today condemns me is nullified.
Has anyone counterclaimed him on being blocked?
Quote from Azrael »
It's a role that kills scum during the night without using the lynch. It's not so different, in fact, you could argue that it's slightly better, since there's little to no chance of misfiring. And on an analyst, if I hadn't been forced to claim early on...
An analyst... or a mafioso...
I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of a vig. To me, it's a player who can kill at will, not just when someone kills him. And I certainly disagree that your claimed role is a substitute for a vig, especially in a game with unlynchable scum.
Quote from Azrael »
But why didn't you fully disclose your abilities to the town, when you were asked to do so?
It's a major part of your ability, so randomly forgetting to mention doesn't seem very likely.
I never said I "randomly forgot." I said I neglected to mention it. I did so consciously just in case Kenji somehow turned out to be Wei or otherwise anti-town. Admittedly, I didn't see things unfolding this way, but frankly I'm perfectly happy with my decision, in retrospect.
Quote from Azrael »
Kenji? That would have created a his credilibility vs. your credibility situation, which he wouldn't have much incentive to get into.
If you're suggesting he was never protected by me, but just made it up to go along with my story today, then perhaps you'll explain why he was already breadcrumbing the protect yesterday:
Quote from Kenji »
By the way, thanks for last night...
Quote from Azrael »
So we're trusting the word of the SK?
Not just swinkee (although as he was already a dead man when he claimed, he wouldn't really have had motivation to lie to us. Especially considering how he cheerfully handed us his two scum buddies.) carrion pigeons mentioned it at the time, as well.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Last night, I blocked Rhinocero.
I also have information that I can use to clear a certain player, if it comes to the point where he's under suspicion.
To be clear, I don't know who the player is, but a roleclaim would clear that up.
That was after the night 3 protect against swinkee. He was also magic aura blocked that night, and when I protected him again the following night, he was also blocked again.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Something happened to me last night that I can only assume means that Hua Tuo is suspicious of me. I'm giving the name in the hope that he will know why I received it, and have reason to believe that it makes me town.
I still don't know how he received my role name, but he clearly made the same jump of logic that I did: that I was causing the roleblocks on him.
So, if you're positing that I'm not really a doctor, please explain these interesting coincidences.
Quote from Azrael »
A friendly prod? That's an interesting euphemism for blackmail.
I'm not sure I follow why you're upset that I'm blackmailing Kenji into helping the Shu...
No, but it's a scum-controlled ability, and Kenji may have figured something out. More on that later.
Quote from Arimnaes »
An analyst... or a mafioso...
I enjoy the theatrical pause, there.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of a vig. To me, it's a player who can kill at will, not just when someone kills him. And I certainly disagree that your claimed role is a substitute for a vig, especially in a game with unlynchable scum.
However, we still don't know if/how that unlynchability applies.
[quote=Arimnaes]
I never said I "randomly forgot." I said I neglected to mention it. I did so consciously just in case Kenji somehow turned out to be Wei or otherwise anti-town. Admittedly, I didn't see things unfolding this way, but frankly I'm perfectly happy with my decision, in retrospect.[/quote]
The town is at LAL, in case you didn't notice. For townies, the time for keeping role information in your back pocket for a rainy day was past.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I'm not sure I follow why you're upset that I'm blackmailing Kenji into helping the Shu...
The Shu? Right.
[quote=Arimnaes]
If you're suggesting he was never protected by me, but just made it up to go along with my story today, then perhaps you'll explain why he was already breadcrumbing the protect yesterday:
Not just swinkee (although as he was already a dead man when he claimed, he wouldn't really have had motivation to lie to us. Especially considering how he cheerfully handed us his two scum buddies.) carrion pigeons mentioned it at the time, as well. That was after the night 3 protect against swinkee. He was also magic aura blocked that night, and when I protected him again the following night, he was also blocked again.
I still don't know how he received my role name, but he clearly made the same jump of logic that I did: that I was causing the roleblocks on him.
So, if you're positing that I'm not really a doctor, please explain these interesting coincidences.[/quote]
Role-blocking mafia doctor. It would explain the protects and the magic auras quite nicely, and also account for that coincidence with Swinkee. (Also note that we've never had someone RBed and killed in the same night).
Code fixed. Feel free to delete my previous attempt.
Quote from Arimnaes »
Has anyone counterclaimed him on being blocked?
No, but it's a scum-controlled ability, and Kenji may have figured something out. More on that later.
Quote from Arimnaes »
An analyst... or a mafioso...
I enjoy the theatrical pause, there.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of a vig. To me, it's a player who can kill at will, not just when someone kills him. And I certainly disagree that your claimed role is a substitute for a vig, especially in a game with unlynchable scum.
However, we still don't know if/how that unlynchability applies.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I never said I "randomly forgot." I said I neglected to mention it. I did so consciously just in case Kenji somehow turned out to be Wei or otherwise anti-town. Admittedly, I didn't see things unfolding this way, but frankly I'm perfectly happy with my decision, in retrospect.
The town is at LoL, in case you didn't notice. For townies, the time for keeping role information in your back pocket for a rainy day was past.
Quote from Arimnaes »
I'm not sure I follow why you're upset that I'm blackmailing Kenji into helping the Shu...
The Shu? Right.
Quote from Arimnaes »
If you're suggesting he was never protected by me, but just made it up to go along with my story today, then perhaps you'll explain why he was already breadcrumbing the protect yesterday:
Not just swinkee (although as he was already a dead man when he claimed, he wouldn't really have had motivation to lie to us. Especially considering how he cheerfully handed us his two scum buddies.) carrion pigeons mentioned it at the time, as well. That was after the night 3 protect against swinkee. He was also magic aura blocked that night, and when I protected him again the following night, he was also blocked again.
I still don't know how he received my role name, but he clearly made the same jump of logic that I did: that I was causing the roleblocks on him.
So, if you're positing that I'm not really a doctor, please explain these interesting coincidences.
Role-blocking mafia doctor. It would explain the protects and the magic auras quite nicely, and also account for that coincidence with Swinkee. (Also note that we've never had someone RBed and killed in the same night).
No, but it's a scum-controlled ability, and Kenji may have figured something out. More on that later.
I hope you do have more on that. Because if you don't, then the point still stands that Kenji was blocked when he tried to kill you. If no one else steps forward and claims to have been hit by the magic aura roleblock, then Kenji would have had to announce he was going to kill you, then not kill you, then gamble that the mafia had just stopped blocking for a night and claim to have been blocked himself.
Quote from Azrael »
(Also note that we've never had someone RBed and killed in the same night).
Oh, come on. You're smarter than that. If they had been RB'ed and killed, we never would have found out they'd been RB'ed.
Quote from Azrael »
The Shu? Right.
So your theory is that, with a previously confirmed townie claiming to be neutral and openly declaring his intentions to ally himself with the Wei, I as Wei decided it was time to threaten Kenji unnecessarily and put my own ass on the line. For what purpose? If I were Wei, or if I were lying about my ability, Kenji and the Wei could simply refuse to vote, force us to end the day, and then massacre the Shu at night. That's the whole reason I had to come out with my ability - to prevent Kenji from just screwing the town over.
So Kenji, you're saying that you are in fact a neutral survivor? How does that add up with Fayul saying all the neutrals were dead? And what did you mean when you said you could kill, but you weren't really a vig?
Fair warning: This is your last chance to change your story, as far as I'm concerned.
Still think Az is scum, but I was probably a bit hasty before in my zeal to reign in Kenji. I'm going to finish the reread, in the context of Kenji being neutral, before I place a final vote. unvote.
Oh, come on. You're smarter than that. If they had been RB'ed and killed, we never would have found out they'd been RB'ed.
However, we've had people claiming the RB almost every day.
Quote from Arimnaes »
So your theory is that, with a previously confirmed townie claiming to be neutral and openly declaring his intentions to ally himself with the Wei, I as Wei decided it was time to threaten Kenji unnecessarily and put my own ass on the line. For what purpose? If I were Wei, or if I were lying about my ability, Kenji and the Wei could simply refuse to vote, force us to end the day, and then massacre the Shu at night. That's the whole reason I had to come out with my ability - to prevent Kenji from just screwing the town over.
Because you realized that Kenji coming up as neutral eliminates the rationale for lynching me, and you wanted to cement a lynch quickly, without being blamed for directing Kenji as a scum.
Yes, the new non-cleared Kenji might be lying about being roleblocked (indeed, it makes sense that a survivor role wouldn't risk attacking a claimed retaliator), although he'd have to be pretty sure as to what had actually happened to the roleblock.
And it still doesn't explain the way you (Azrael) knew you were roleblocked by cp but loran didn't know he was roleblocked by AH.
State of play as I see it
Az as scum, me and arim and one of fade/keeper as town, Kenji as neutral and one of fade/keeper as scum #2 (starting to lean to keeper, on re-read).
Difficulties- even with arim's foot on his neck, if Kenji can really day-vig someone all he may need to do is put down the last necessary vote and do the vigging for the win.
BTW, Kenji, it's bugging me- now that you've owned up anyway, what does your anagram say?
Because you realized that Kenji coming up as neutral eliminates the rationale for lynching me
Excuse me? How do you come up with this?
Let's go over the practicality of the situation:
After the lynch of A_H, we went into night with 7 alive. 2 Wei (in all likelyhood) and 5 non-Wei. So, if you are town, the good play for the mafia here is to kill someone random (might as well be loran), and let Kenji vig you, dying himself in the process. They can then use the roleblock to hit one of the remaining players, reducing the chances of any doctoring interfering with their plans. The Wei then win, because day dawns with tqo Wei, two non-Wei.
If you are Wei, however, the play is to block Kenji, to prevent him from keeping the town out of LyLo by vigging you.
So what do we know? Assuming the Wei aren't terrible players, either they will block Kenji (if you are Wei), or they will block a player other than you, Kenji, or the player they're killing (if you are town.)
Now, Kenji claimed to have been blocked last night. If he is neutral and not town, then we have to take this with a grain of salt. However, if he's claiming to have been blocked, we know that either he was blocked, or nobody was (as the Wei wouldn't have blocked one of their own members, and any townie would have counterclaimed Kenji on being blocked.) It doesn't make sense in either circumstance (you being town, or you being mafia) for the mafia to have blocked no one last night, which means Kenji is almost certainly telling the truth. And if he's telling the truth about being blocked when he announced he was going to vig you... well, it looks a bit suspicious on you, doesn't it?
Secondly, even if you make the assumption (as you appear to be making) that the mafia are either stupid or blatantly illogical, it doesn't explain away your defense of CPE, your attacks on townies, and other things that are sticking out upon rereading. So, as far as I'm concerned, you being town would require some bizarre occurences with night actions and some strange play on your part.
Quote from Azrael »
Quote from arimnaes »
Did you read where I protected Kenji on a night he successfully killed Cyan?
Which really isn't all that reassuring, considering we have to take your word for it.
There's also Kenji's word, which you seem to be completely ignoring despite my repeatedly bringing it up. He implied as early as yesterday (the day after my protect on him) that he knew about the protection I'd given him. So even if you plan to disbelieve everything he says from this point forward, it still wouldn't explain how he knew about a protect which (according to your theory) never really happened.
EBWODP: Partially sarnathed by RafK while typing that response.
Quote from RafaelK »
Difficulties- even with arim's foot on his neck, if Kenji can really day-vig someone all he may need to do is put down the last necessary vote and do the vigging for the win.
I'll be watching for that... if I see Kenji plop down a hasty third vote on a likely Shu, I'll have no reservations about blowing him away before he pulls any shenanigans.
But as long as you play along, Kenji, I don't foresee the need to resort to such brutality.
EBWODP: Partially sarnathed by RafK while typing that response.
I'll be watching for that... if I see Kenji plop down a hasty third vote on a likely Shu, I'll have no reservations about blowing him away before he pulls any shenanigans.
Which doesn't really do any good if he does his vigging at the same time as his vote.
The workaround is really that if the mafia expose themselves by dogpiling a townie and screaming to Kenji to join them, you could always knock off Kenji before he gets the chance and then we lynch the mafia (with the absolute knowledge of who they are). Cao Cao's unlynchability is the sticking point, but we must be able to get around that if it turns out we never even had a proper town vig. Maybe he becomes vulnerable if he's the last scum alive, or if all other killing roles are dead, or something.
Actually, I just had a really horrible thought arim. IF Kenji really can day-vig, he could just kill you before you can do anything to him. You have no control over him at all unless you kill him before he kills you, but we can't afford to lynch him unless he's a Wei not a neutral, and killing him right now without knowing exactly who the mafia are puts us in a bad position.
Cao Cao's unlynchability is the sticking point, but we must be able to get around that if it turns out we never even had a proper town vig. Maybe he becomes vulnerable if he's the last scum alive, or if all other killing roles are dead, or something.
My working theory had been that he becomes lynchable once he's the last Wei standing. Otherwise, it'd be a little ridiculous.
Quote from RafaelK »
Actually, I just had a really horrible thought arim. IF Kenji really can day-vig, he could just kill you before you can do anything to him. You have no control over him at all unless you kill him before he kills you, but we can't afford to lynch him unless he's a Wei not a neutral, and killing him right now without knowing exactly who the mafia are puts us in a bad position.
Well, I just moved over to thinking that RafK is the other scum, again. Why on Earth would you be saying this in thread, where Kenji can read it, unless you're hoping he'll realize to do it, if he does in fact have a day vig?
I'll reserve judgment until the reread is done, I suppose... but don't think this will go unnoticed, Raf. That was just a terrible play, if you're town... and you're not one known to make terrible plays as town.
Well, I just moved over to thinking that RafK is the other scum, again. Why on Earth would you be saying this in thread, where Kenji can read it, unless you're hoping he'll realize to do it, if he does in fact have a day vig?
I work on the assumption that Kenji is aware of what he can and can't do, especially since that meek slave act is about as convincing as a one-legged man in an ass-kicking competition. "Kill the person who says they can kill me" is not a complex strategy to come up with.
On the other hand, the rest of the town does need to be aware of the numbers game that we're in and you needed to be aware in particular that you don't have the control you seemed to think you have. While Kenji lives, basically, we must act as if he could backstab us at any time, not as if his vote is perfectly under your control.
Keeping the town fully informed, at this point, is much more valuable than trying to hide stuff which the scum/neutral probably knew anyway.
I agree, fade and keeper should find this turn of events... interesting, at any rate.
Quote from Kenji »
I had thought about killing arminaes... I'm not sure what would happen if I were to day kill arminaes and then arminaes kills me all before Fayul next comes on.
I wont be taking that chance.
You are a wise man.
So, you are confirming that you do in fact have a daykill? Because if you do, I'm sure you know who I'd like it used on... but that can wait, at least until the others check in.
I'm still baffled by the "I'm a neutral even though they're all supposed to be dead claim". None the less, it appears Kenji's still in our camp, so I'm happy...
...unless arminaes is Mafia. Which I don't believe to be the case. If had to vote right now, I'd still be going with Azrael. Just because his existance today no longer insures that he's scum, doesn't mean that he hasn't had the most spotted background up to this point.
RafaelK brings up a couple of points. I still want to know why Azrael knew he had been rollblocked by AH, when neither I nor loran16 had been notified. This is one of the few events in the game that's directly involved me, and thus, it's one I'm still searching for answers from.
Kenji, it'd be nice to know what the anagram meant. I'd have to assume if you don't tell us, than it still is serving some sort of purpose, which is a bit scary from the Town point of view.
We've got two daykills sitting on the table, a retalitory killer claimed, and the possibility that the game hangs in the hands of Kenji. I have a feeling it's going to come down to whoever moves first.
I still want to know why Azrael knew he had been rollblocked by AH, when neither I nor loran16 had been notified. This is one of the few events in the game that's directly involved me, and thus, it's one I'm still searching for answers from.
Probably because he's the scum roleblocker, so unlike loran, and unlike you (whether you're Cao Cao or actually a Shu mason) he had an active ability to block. Which probably explains why Kenji went unblocked that night.
@Kenji: Can you please answer, do you have a daykill or not?
Kenji, it'd be nice to know what the anagram meant. I'd have to assume if you don't tell us, than it still is serving some sort of purpose, which is a bit scary from the Town point of view.
Waiting to hear from fadeblue. Once we do, depending on what he says, I'd like to have Azrael daykilled (if possible) and proceed from there.
Quote from arimnaes »
Probably because he's the scum roleblocker, so unlike loran, and unlike you (whether you're Cao Cao or actually a Shu mason) he had an active ability to block. Which probably explains why Kenji went unblocked that night.
I might have the chronology mixed up on this. I think Azrael's scum regardless, but events might actually preclude him being the roleblocker, as opposed to confirming it. Please stay tuned.
Things I want Kenji to answer in his next post, or I might have to start taking fingers:
1) Please completely lay out the specifics of your role, as far as when and how many times you can kill.
2) Please confirm that you are neutral.
3) Please explain the anagram.
I was hoping you would say that. Phew, that makes things a lot, lot less worrying for me. Sorry I bunked your plan, but I saw the town's life flashing before its eyes.
Although, lack of daykill =
Wavering 'twixt Raf and Keeper at the moment (I find the prospect of fadeblue being Wei fairly unlikely), currently leaning Keeper as the other scum. If we lynch the roleblocker today, were set up nicely for the win, with Kenji as true blue Shu. If we attempt to lynch Cao Cao and he's still unlynchable... things could get messy at night.
Where is fadeblue? He hasn't been on the site for like 5 days.
I was planning to post 2 days ago, but I stepped back to rethink some things, and I never got a chance to come back online. By the way, I'll be returning home in about half a week, so I'll be able to post regularly again soon.
I had some questions then, but they've kind of been answered. Az is still almost a guarantee to be scum, between the roleblock on Kenji last night and his play throughout the game (particularly his leap to try to acquit himself simply because Kenji claimed neutral). I think barring any new revelations (and I think we're well beyond that point), he should definitely be the lynch today.
Keeper, by the process of elimination, is the next strongest suspect, though RafK could still be possible scum. But that can wait until tomorrow.
I'm inclined to believe Kenji was pulling a poor attempt to draw scum there, because it seems rather illogical for him to do that if he actually were neutral or Wei, given he had been basically tagged as 100% clear. I can't really see a logical explanation if he's not town.
On day 5 for the reread, now. Neither Raf nor Keeper has a great voting record, nor a great claim. However, Keeper has been more consistently scummy, and was lurking like a fiend, and was on the wrong side of the CPE wagon. So, unless I see something dramatic, I'd put my money on him as the other scum, for now.
Here's my masterful plan of doom for how we will win this game. I'm making two assumptions, here:
1) Azrael is scum
2) The other scum either Raf or Keeper, not fadeblue
So, we lynch Azrael.
IF AZRAEL IS THE SCUM ROLEBLOCKER, NOT CAO CAO:
- Kenji vigs Keeper
- I protect Kenji
- Raf protects me
If Keeper is the other scum, we win.
If Raf is, then I will get NK'ed. Tomorrow we have Raf, Kenji, and fadeblue alive, and lynch Raf. We win.
IF AZRAEL IS CAO CAO:
- Kenji vigs Azrael
- I protect Kenji
- Raf protects me
The scum roleblocker (either Keeper or Raf) either blocks Kenji, or blocks one of the doctors and kills Kenji or me, or whatever. Either way, we either have 5 alive tomorrow, or 4 (sans Azrael). We'll know for sure Az is scum, which means the town just has to choose correctly between Raf and Keeper. I would probably go Keeper based on current evidence.
If fadeblue is scum... well, then he's played a ridiculously tight (albeit very strange) game. I think going for him would definitely be a low percentage play compared to Keeper or Raf. So, unless anyone spots some gaping flaws in this plan, I'm now ready to (finally!) vote Azrael.
PS: On the 1.08% chance that Azrael is town, then Kenji vigs someone (probably Keeper) and Raf and I each protect someone random amongst me, Raf, and Kenji. Two doc protects for three possible targets (with fadeblue claiming untargetable) means we'll at least have a decent chance to intercept the nightkill and stay in the game.
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EBWODP: Have read most of day 1 so far, up to the CPE debacle. Right now, the mafia is definitely looking like Az and Keeper.
This was keeper right after CPE made his blunder of claiming Wu without knowing about the safe claims, and SOS had gotten on and made some angry posts without nation-claiming:
Wants to appear like he's against CPE, while secretly hoping SOS will make a bigger spectacle out of himself.
Azrael chipped in with this:
Dismisses CPE's actions as "a tell." Jumps on SOS.
Then, after SOS had posted again without bothering to nation-claim:
Seems like a concerted effort on both of their parts to shift the focus off of CPE. I doubt the mafia thought they were going to get a lynch on SOS just for being late in claiming, but it could have been a valuable distraction... especially since they could use the time to coach CPE, as the mafia have daytalk.
Then, Azrael posts this:
Completely missing the point, of course, that CPE is under fire for being possible/likely Wei, not because people believe him that he is Wu and want to lynch him anyway. This is a signifcant distortion of the current argument, and very un-Azrael-like (unless he's mafia with CPE, of course.)
Finally, Keeper says this:
First obliquely, then directly, suggesting that CPE is Wu rather than Wei, and that going after Wu is bad.
This is just something that caught my eye; I'll continue working on the reread. So far, Raf and fadeblue are acting quite town. Raf was balls-out in favor of the nation claim and anti-CPE; fadeblue was unsure of the nation-claim at first but got on board, and was pretty anti-CPE as well.
Reread continuing.
At this time, matjoeman and I were under the impression that we were Wu, as there was initially an error in our roll PM's. Thus, I wasn't tempted at the moment to out someone on my own side.
By this point, my roll has been switched, and I was just looking to get through the rest of the claims.
I did believe that going after Wu was bad at that time. Earlier that day, I was under the impression that I was Wu. I've my roll easy was changed to Shu, than did it not make sense for the two companys to be friendly? That is how matjoeman and I saw it at the time. In hindsight, this proved to be untrue.
Day 1 was very much a nightmare for matjoeman and I, as we debated what to do about everyone claiming Shu, then had our rolls changed, and had to reapproach the game.[/color]
[color=magenta]EBWODP: Excuse the hideous color tags that don't add up, quote feature is worthless.[/color]
Care to explain this, then?
She said that all the Wu were gone. And what's more, she blatantly implied that the Wu were going to turn on the Shu at some point. So, if you are in fact Wu, I don't see how you plan on "winning with the Shu."
Also,
You might as well have written, "Here there be anagrams."
This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Kenji were Shu, I see absolutely no reason for him to do this. If he were Wu, I still don't see any reason for him to do this. And if he is somehow Wei, I see less than zero reason for him to do this.
If Kenji is right that there are more Wu, then we Shu are well and truly boned.
Everything pointed at the Wu having been ready to become a new mafia when the Wei ended, hmmm?
Gut feeling is Kenji is running a gambit and should be safely ignored. Worst case is he's trying to shield Az now that a majority consensus for the Az lynch has been achieved. In which case Kenji should still be ignored.
Incidentally...
A FACADE HOOF TIM TIN RUNS
=
IM A CAT NOT A FRIEND OF SHU
I can probably puzzle it out correctly later. I would be stunned if "friend" and "shu" aren't in there for real. It's vaguely possible that Kenji has typod his anagram and that "cat" should be "cao", but in that case who knows whether he's saying he is a friend of Shu or he's not?
Damn, I hate complications when things were starting to look simple.
Anyway, I was going to FOS Az, but now with Kenji here, I'm not so sure...
Can someone double check the kills and go over why we cleared Kenji in the first place? We may have overlooked something.
Also, swinkee said that for whatever reason, he wasn't instructed to kill on night 4. Probably because Rhino went MIA around that time, who knows. Anyways, with no SK kill that night, it makes sense that Kenji could have killed chamber while the mafia killed Matjoeman (I think).
This stuff checks out, and it seems to exonerate Kenji from being Wei, unless the Wei are hideously broken. Except now he's apparently Wu, except that there are no Wu left. Uh...
@Azrael: Did you claim to reflect kills, or did you claim that you and your attacker would both die?
I'll be interested to see if Az is going to claim Wu.
Tried the anagram a handful of times, but haven't found anything better than Raf's. That being said, I'm awful at anagrams.
No further luck with the anagram; nothing that makes any better sense, anyway.
And I am definitely not Wu.
I'm very, very interested in hearing what Kenji might have to say. The primary reason the town is considering lynching me is based on his claim to have targeted me last night as vig, so if his story doesn't check out after all...
I was under the mistaken impression that Az claimed kill-reflection, rather than martyrdom. In that case, I don't see how he could possibly be town, because with 7 alive going into night, they could have simply killed loran and let Kenji and Az die, and that would be game, set, and match.
As weird as this situation is, Kenji being Wei simply doesn't add up, between the kills on chamber, HC, and Cyan. Kenji, if you are Shu and pulling some kind of gambit, please desist. It's unnecessary and unhelpful.
I'm prepared to vote for Azrael right now; I simply don't see any way the facts could add up to him being town.
Really need to hear from Kenji again.
He was probably hoping a Wei would go "Hi guys I'm actually Wu", and then we could lynch their lying ass. Not a particularly devious trap, but worth a try I suppose.
She also said all the neutrals were dead. So are you saying that you're Shu who can also win w/ the Wei?
Newsflash- you and two scum voting together can't get a majority lynch yet. Please consider winning with the town as an attractive option.
If you're neutral, it's also possible that Cao Cao is actually the last scum. There's a limit to the amount of non-Shu roles possible. In which case your attempt to change sides is very, very badly timed.
Newsflash 2:
Hi.
Kenji, I'd suggest you cooperate with the Shu, at least while I'm alive. You see, I left one teensy detail out of my roleclaim, on the off chance you somehow turned out to be anti-town. Remember that gaping chest wound? Let's just say I didn't patch it up as tightly as I could have...
I say the word, and you die. Now kindly vote Azrael, and vig some Wei tonight. Capice?
So, if we believe you're telling the truth, we're facing two other mafia still, and the town can't afford to lynch you. Which works out very nicely for you, no matter what alignment you actually are, townie, neutral, or scum.
But now, you're also claiming a day-kill on top of that, which is a little weird for a townie vig. And since I'm here, I know that you didn't target me last night as a townie vig, so you were definitely lying about that.
Add that in with the possiblity that Fayul considered a retaliatory killer a good counter-balance for not giving the town a vig, and factor in the huge role of false claims in this game, and we might have a case here. Especially since as far as I can tell from the first page, we never had more than two kills on any given night (there might have been an attempted kill stuck in there on FB, but was that a night that we only had a single kill?). And most of the time when you were scheduled to vig a target designated by the town, that kill would mysteriously never go through.
But if you're mafia, with a day-kill to "confirm" your vig-abilities, then that particular mystery is much easier to explain.
The only thing that makes me wonder is this:
Because Lu Bu had already died, and we still had two kills on the following nights? Or am I missing something else in the kill pattern? That seems to be the biggest hurdle to the "Kenji is Wei" possibility. It would require something pretty unlikely, like an extra mafia kill, to explain that inconsistency. So if that's true, then yeah, it would definitely seem to indicate he's neutral or town.
PPE:
Are you kidding me?
Firstly, now that Kenji has claimed neutral, all bets are off on his having targeted me last night: as a neutral survivor, he would have no reason to do so. And, if he's telling the truth, then a counter-killing vig is an excellent solution to making the primary vig a neutral, which makes my claim much stronger.
Secondly, you just invented a new ability out of thin air, when the town had already asked everyone to fully claim. Did you simply neglect to mention that part of your ability? Or are you trying to force a lynch before the town puts the pieces together?
Thirdly, we've already had two "docs" (or semi-docs) claim, which means there's not a half-bad possibility that one of the two of you is lying.
Fourth, why the hasty vote there? Why are we in a rush to end the day so quickly, before discussion is complete?
Your last post raises a lot of questions, Arimnaes. Mind answering them?
He would also have to have several extra nightkills, unless I'm missing something.
He also claimed to have been roleblocked. Whether or not he actually targeted you is irrelevant; he declared he was going to target you the previous day, and then the mafia (because no townie's roleclaim has accounted for it) roleblocked him.
First, I would hardly describe your role as a vig. Second, you realize that a neutral survivor vig would be strictly better than an SK, and would have no reason not to act like a second SK? If anything, the fact that Kenji has only killed three times suggests that he's not just a neutral vig.
I neglected to mention it, because at the time I thought Kenji was virutally confirmed town, so I wouldn't have to use it. But I'm willing to use it now, as a means of forcing Kenji to play for the Shu until I die.
True. But keep in mind that my doctor ability has been confirmed by a player who, it now appears, could just have easily decided to disavow it. Also, swinkee confirmed that he tried and failed to kill carrion pigeons on night 3. So, you can believe me or not on whether I have the ability I say I have now, but I am a doctor.
Because I am now completely convinced that you're Wei? If others want to discuss, then by all means, let them do so. Just thought I'd give Kenji a friendly prod and make my intentions clear.
Did they? Or did he claim that merely to explain why I was still alive today?
I'll say it again: now that Kenji has claimed neutral, the theory that my survival today condemns me is nullified.
It's a role that kills scum during the night without using the lynch. It's not so different, in fact, you could argue that it's slightly better, since there's little to no chance of misfiring. And on an analyst, if I hadn't been forced to claim early on...
It depends on whether he was worried about being nailed as an anti-town force by the town.
But why didn't you fully disclose your abilities to the town, when you were asked to do so?
It's a major part of your ability, so randomly forgetting to mention doesn't seem very likely.
Kenji? That would have created a his credilibility vs. your credibility situation, which he wouldn't have much incentive to get into.
So we're trusting the word of the SK?
A friendly prod? That's an interesting euphemism for blackmail.
Has anyone counterclaimed him on being blocked?
An analyst... or a mafioso...
I'm not going to argue with you about the definition of a vig. To me, it's a player who can kill at will, not just when someone kills him. And I certainly disagree that your claimed role is a substitute for a vig, especially in a game with unlynchable scum.
I never said I "randomly forgot." I said I neglected to mention it. I did so consciously just in case Kenji somehow turned out to be Wei or otherwise anti-town. Admittedly, I didn't see things unfolding this way, but frankly I'm perfectly happy with my decision, in retrospect.
If you're suggesting he was never protected by me, but just made it up to go along with my story today, then perhaps you'll explain why he was already breadcrumbing the protect yesterday:
Not just swinkee (although as he was already a dead man when he claimed, he wouldn't really have had motivation to lie to us. Especially considering how he cheerfully handed us his two scum buddies.) carrion pigeons mentioned it at the time, as well.
That was after the night 3 protect against swinkee. He was also magic aura blocked that night, and when I protected him again the following night, he was also blocked again.
I still don't know how he received my role name, but he clearly made the same jump of logic that I did: that I was causing the roleblocks on him.
So, if you're positing that I'm not really a doctor, please explain these interesting coincidences.
I'm not sure I follow why you're upset that I'm blackmailing Kenji into helping the Shu...
No, but it's a scum-controlled ability, and Kenji may have figured something out. More on that later.
I enjoy the theatrical pause, there.
However, we still don't know if/how that unlynchability applies.
[quote=Arimnaes]
I never said I "randomly forgot." I said I neglected to mention it. I did so consciously just in case Kenji somehow turned out to be Wei or otherwise anti-town. Admittedly, I didn't see things unfolding this way, but frankly I'm perfectly happy with my decision, in retrospect.[/quote]
The town is at LAL, in case you didn't notice. For townies, the time for keeping role information in your back pocket for a rainy day was past.
The Shu? Right.
[quote=Arimnaes]
If you're suggesting he was never protected by me, but just made it up to go along with my story today, then perhaps you'll explain why he was already breadcrumbing the protect yesterday:
Not just swinkee (although as he was already a dead man when he claimed, he wouldn't really have had motivation to lie to us. Especially considering how he cheerfully handed us his two scum buddies.) carrion pigeons mentioned it at the time, as well.
That was after the night 3 protect against swinkee. He was also magic aura blocked that night, and when I protected him again the following night, he was also blocked again.
I still don't know how he received my role name, but he clearly made the same jump of logic that I did: that I was causing the roleblocks on him.
So, if you're positing that I'm not really a doctor, please explain these interesting coincidences.[/quote]
Role-blocking mafia doctor. It would explain the protects and the magic auras quite nicely, and also account for that coincidence with Swinkee. (Also note that we've never had someone RBed and killed in the same night).
I agree: interesting coincedences.
No, but it's a scum-controlled ability, and Kenji may have figured something out. More on that later.
I enjoy the theatrical pause, there.
However, we still don't know if/how that unlynchability applies.
The town is at LoL, in case you didn't notice. For townies, the time for keeping role information in your back pocket for a rainy day was past.
The Shu? Right.
Role-blocking mafia doctor. It would explain the protects and the magic auras quite nicely, and also account for that coincidence with Swinkee. (Also note that we've never had someone RBed and killed in the same night).
I agree: interesting coincedences.
Did you read where I protected Kenji on a night he successfully killed Cyan?
I hope you do have more on that. Because if you don't, then the point still stands that Kenji was blocked when he tried to kill you. If no one else steps forward and claims to have been hit by the magic aura roleblock, then Kenji would have had to announce he was going to kill you, then not kill you, then gamble that the mafia had just stopped blocking for a night and claim to have been blocked himself.
Oh, come on. You're smarter than that. If they had been RB'ed and killed, we never would have found out they'd been RB'ed.
So your theory is that, with a previously confirmed townie claiming to be neutral and openly declaring his intentions to ally himself with the Wei, I as Wei decided it was time to threaten Kenji unnecessarily and put my own ass on the line. For what purpose? If I were Wei, or if I were lying about my ability, Kenji and the Wei could simply refuse to vote, force us to end the day, and then massacre the Shu at night. That's the whole reason I had to come out with my ability - to prevent Kenji from just screwing the town over.
Fair warning: This is your last chance to change your story, as far as I'm concerned.
Still think Az is scum, but I was probably a bit hasty before in my zeal to reign in Kenji. I'm going to finish the reread, in the context of Kenji being neutral, before I place a final vote. unvote.
Did you read further down?
However, we've had people claiming the RB almost every day.
Because you realized that Kenji coming up as neutral eliminates the rationale for lynching me, and you wanted to cement a lynch quickly, without being blamed for directing Kenji as a scum.
Which really isn't all that reassuring, considering we have to take your word for it.
Yes, the new non-cleared Kenji might be lying about being roleblocked (indeed, it makes sense that a survivor role wouldn't risk attacking a claimed retaliator), although he'd have to be pretty sure as to what had actually happened to the roleblock.
And it still doesn't explain the way you (Azrael) knew you were roleblocked by cp but loran didn't know he was roleblocked by AH.
State of play as I see it
Az as scum, me and arim and one of fade/keeper as town, Kenji as neutral and one of fade/keeper as scum #2 (starting to lean to keeper, on re-read).
Difficulties- even with arim's foot on his neck, if Kenji can really day-vig someone all he may need to do is put down the last necessary vote and do the vigging for the win.
BTW, Kenji, it's bugging me- now that you've owned up anyway, what does your anagram say?
Let's go over the practicality of the situation:
After the lynch of A_H, we went into night with 7 alive. 2 Wei (in all likelyhood) and 5 non-Wei. So, if you are town, the good play for the mafia here is to kill someone random (might as well be loran), and let Kenji vig you, dying himself in the process. They can then use the roleblock to hit one of the remaining players, reducing the chances of any doctoring interfering with their plans. The Wei then win, because day dawns with tqo Wei, two non-Wei.
If you are Wei, however, the play is to block Kenji, to prevent him from keeping the town out of LyLo by vigging you.
So what do we know? Assuming the Wei aren't terrible players, either they will block Kenji (if you are Wei), or they will block a player other than you, Kenji, or the player they're killing (if you are town.)
Now, Kenji claimed to have been blocked last night. If he is neutral and not town, then we have to take this with a grain of salt. However, if he's claiming to have been blocked, we know that either he was blocked, or nobody was (as the Wei wouldn't have blocked one of their own members, and any townie would have counterclaimed Kenji on being blocked.) It doesn't make sense in either circumstance (you being town, or you being mafia) for the mafia to have blocked no one last night, which means Kenji is almost certainly telling the truth. And if he's telling the truth about being blocked when he announced he was going to vig you... well, it looks a bit suspicious on you, doesn't it?
Secondly, even if you make the assumption (as you appear to be making) that the mafia are either stupid or blatantly illogical, it doesn't explain away your defense of CPE, your attacks on townies, and other things that are sticking out upon rereading. So, as far as I'm concerned, you being town would require some bizarre occurences with night actions and some strange play on your part.
There's also Kenji's word, which you seem to be completely ignoring despite my repeatedly bringing it up. He implied as early as yesterday (the day after my protect on him) that he knew about the protection I'd given him. So even if you plan to disbelieve everything he says from this point forward, it still wouldn't explain how he knew about a protect which (according to your theory) never really happened.
I'll be watching for that... if I see Kenji plop down a hasty third vote on a likely Shu, I'll have no reservations about blowing him away before he pulls any shenanigans.
But as long as you play along, Kenji, I don't foresee the need to resort to such brutality.
Which doesn't really do any good if he does his vigging at the same time as his vote.
The workaround is really that if the mafia expose themselves by dogpiling a townie and screaming to Kenji to join them, you could always knock off Kenji before he gets the chance and then we lynch the mafia (with the absolute knowledge of who they are). Cao Cao's unlynchability is the sticking point, but we must be able to get around that if it turns out we never even had a proper town vig. Maybe he becomes vulnerable if he's the last scum alive, or if all other killing roles are dead, or something.
Actually, I just had a really horrible thought arim. IF Kenji really can day-vig, he could just kill you before you can do anything to him. You have no control over him at all unless you kill him before he kills you, but we can't afford to lynch him unless he's a Wei not a neutral, and killing him right now without knowing exactly who the mafia are puts us in a bad position.
Well, I just moved over to thinking that RafK is the other scum, again. Why on Earth would you be saying this in thread, where Kenji can read it, unless you're hoping he'll realize to do it, if he does in fact have a day vig?
I'll reserve judgment until the reread is done, I suppose... but don't think this will go unnoticed, Raf. That was just a terrible play, if you're town... and you're not one known to make terrible plays as town.
I work on the assumption that Kenji is aware of what he can and can't do, especially since that meek slave act is about as convincing as a one-legged man in an ass-kicking competition. "Kill the person who says they can kill me" is not a complex strategy to come up with.
On the other hand, the rest of the town does need to be aware of the numbers game that we're in and you needed to be aware in particular that you don't have the control you seemed to think you have. While Kenji lives, basically, we must act as if he could backstab us at any time, not as if his vote is perfectly under your control.
Keeping the town fully informed, at this point, is much more valuable than trying to hide stuff which the scum/neutral probably knew anyway.
You are a wise man.
So, you are confirming that you do in fact have a daykill? Because if you do, I'm sure you know who I'd like it used on... but that can wait, at least until the others check in.
I'm still baffled by the "I'm a neutral even though they're all supposed to be dead claim". None the less, it appears Kenji's still in our camp, so I'm happy...
...unless arminaes is Mafia. Which I don't believe to be the case. If had to vote right now, I'd still be going with Azrael. Just because his existance today no longer insures that he's scum, doesn't mean that he hasn't had the most spotted background up to this point.
RafaelK brings up a couple of points. I still want to know why Azrael knew he had been rollblocked by AH, when neither I nor loran16 had been notified. This is one of the few events in the game that's directly involved me, and thus, it's one I'm still searching for answers from.
Kenji, it'd be nice to know what the anagram meant. I'd have to assume if you don't tell us, than it still is serving some sort of purpose, which is a bit scary from the Town point of view.
We've got two daykills sitting on the table, a retalitory killer claimed, and the possibility that the game hangs in the hands of Kenji. I have a feeling it's going to come down to whoever moves first.
@Kenji: Can you please answer, do you have a daykill or not?
Quoted for truth.
I might have the chronology mixed up on this. I think Azrael's scum regardless, but events might actually preclude him being the roleblocker, as opposed to confirming it. Please stay tuned.
Things I want Kenji to answer in his next post, or I might have to start taking fingers:
1) Please completely lay out the specifics of your role, as far as when and how many times you can kill.
2) Please confirm that you are neutral.
3) Please explain the anagram.
Although, lack of daykill =
Wavering 'twixt Raf and Keeper at the moment (I find the prospect of fadeblue being Wei fairly unlikely), currently leaning Keeper as the other scum. If we lynch the roleblocker today, were set up nicely for the win, with Kenji as true blue Shu. If we attempt to lynch Cao Cao and he's still unlynchable... things could get messy at night.
Where is fadeblue? He hasn't been on the site for like 5 days.
I had some questions then, but they've kind of been answered. Az is still almost a guarantee to be scum, between the roleblock on Kenji last night and his play throughout the game (particularly his leap to try to acquit himself simply because Kenji claimed neutral). I think barring any new revelations (and I think we're well beyond that point), he should definitely be the lynch today.
Keeper, by the process of elimination, is the next strongest suspect, though RafK could still be possible scum. But that can wait until tomorrow.
I'm inclined to believe Kenji was pulling a poor attempt to draw scum there, because it seems rather illogical for him to do that if he actually were neutral or Wei, given he had been basically tagged as 100% clear. I can't really see a logical explanation if he's not town.
Here's my masterful plan of doom for how we will win this game. I'm making two assumptions, here:
1) Azrael is scum
2) The other scum either Raf or Keeper, not fadeblue
So, we lynch Azrael.
IF AZRAEL IS THE SCUM ROLEBLOCKER, NOT CAO CAO:
- Kenji vigs Keeper
- I protect Kenji
- Raf protects me
If Keeper is the other scum, we win.
If Raf is, then I will get NK'ed. Tomorrow we have Raf, Kenji, and fadeblue alive, and lynch Raf. We win.
IF AZRAEL IS CAO CAO:
- Kenji vigs Azrael
- I protect Kenji
- Raf protects me
The scum roleblocker (either Keeper or Raf) either blocks Kenji, or blocks one of the doctors and kills Kenji or me, or whatever. Either way, we either have 5 alive tomorrow, or 4 (sans Azrael). We'll know for sure Az is scum, which means the town just has to choose correctly between Raf and Keeper. I would probably go Keeper based on current evidence.
If fadeblue is scum... well, then he's played a ridiculously tight (albeit very strange) game. I think going for him would definitely be a low percentage play compared to Keeper or Raf. So, unless anyone spots some gaping flaws in this plan, I'm now ready to (finally!) vote Azrael.
PS: On the 1.08% chance that Azrael is town, then Kenji vigs someone (probably Keeper) and Raf and I each protect someone random amongst me, Raf, and Kenji. Two doc protects for three possible targets (with fadeblue claiming untargetable) means we'll at least have a decent chance to intercept the nightkill and stay in the game.