So let me show you another way of doing this. We attempt to lynch Az, prove him as Cao Cao. Kenji goes to vig him, and I do nothing to stop it. Tomorrow you have dead Cao Cao, a live vig, and a live role blocker all working towards a town victory.
Yeah, not so much.
Going to night guaranteed to have two scum including a roleblocker active is so fun. You realise that if you (for the sake of argument) are not scum, there is another scum roleblocker out there? So this plan wouldn't work anyway?
I won't be exactly cleared, but I'd hope letting Cao Cao die would be a large evidence towards it.
Or... you could block and kill Kenji, leaving us with the trouble of unlynchable Cao Cao and no way of knowing how to remove it (although I'm sure there'll be a way). Or... you could block Kenji and kill loran, which might trigger God mode for Cao Cao or something.
I don't like plans which rely 100% on the suspected scum not, in fact, being scum.
The plan doesn't exactly work if Az isn't Cao Cao. In that case, I'll let myself die to Kenji.
We'll just trust you on that. Except... no. And incidentally, letting yourself die as a townie would aid the mafia and be a major non-no, but of course scum do like making empty promises
If it turns out you're Cao Cao and we really should lynch Az first, you (verbally) and Az (failure to seriously defend himself) have done a fantastic con job convincing me that you desperately want us to try to lynch Az first, I'll give you that.
Going to night guaranteed to have two scum including a roleblocker active is so fun. You realise that if you (for the sake of argument) are not scum, there is another scum roleblocker out there? So this plan wouldn't work anyway?
What makes you say that? Why does there have to be another roleblocker? If you'd like I could block you. Then, if you have a activated ability, you could confirm I targeted you, regardless of block
Quote from RafaelK »
We'll just trust you on that. Except... no. And incidentally, letting yourself die as a townie would aid the mafia and be a major non-no, but of course scum do like making empty promises
That's exactly what I'm asking you to do. Trust me for one night, and in the morning the town will be in a better situation. I can be a great asset to the town. As for letting myself die, it would make things alot clearer for the town, so I'm no sure it's all bad.
Quote from RafaelK »
If it turns out you're Cao Cao and we really should lynch Az first, you (verbally) and Az (failure to seriously defend himself) have done a fantastic con job convincing me that you desperately want us to try to lynch Az first, I'll give you that.
I like hearing about how Az and I have been collaborating. It makes me feel special. But I think If Az and I were working together we'd have come up with a better plan, or even let things continue the direction they were going. I tried my plan in the hopes that it would catch scum off guard, and I caught myself off guard. If this seems like a mafia ploy directed by Az, well, I just don't know what to say.
I'm going to agree with RafK. At this point, I'm pretty sold on Az being Cao Cao and AH being a roleblocker. In which case, we're better off lynching AH first.
What makes you say that? Why does there have to be another roleblocker?
At leasr Kenji has claimed to be blocked once. I'd have to re-read, I do recall others (I think cp?). It may have been the work of the Dong Zhuo guys, but they never confessed to that bit even when they spilled everything else.
If you'd like I could block you. Then, if you have a activated ability, you could confirm I targeted you, regardless of block
Fish, fish, fish. No, I'm not telling you whether I have an activated ability.
Trust me for one night, and in the morning the town will be in a better situation. I can be a great asset to the town.
Anyone can say that. If we gave every scum candidate an extra night to prove themselves, we couldn't possibly win.
As for letting myself die, it would make things alot clearer for the town, so I'm no sure it's all bad.
Clear as mud :/ If we're completely wrong here, I don't know where to look. Off-hand, I still think Az must be mafia even if you aren't, because I cannot see two out of fade/arim/keeper as mafia.
I like hearing about how Az and I have been collaborating. It makes me feel special. But I think If Az and I were working together we'd have come up with a better plan,
WIFOM, plus I have seen Az' scum plans come unstuck before (I seem to recall a scum-cult alliance go badly wrong about a year ago, for example...). Stuff happens.
Hopefully this one ends tonight. Was fade's vote the hammer, or do we need one more?
sarnathed by Kenji I see. Well, that should be night, and as long as loran/Liu Bei survives we should be OK. Kenji, if it turns out AH was cao cao after all obviously try to get him instead
Well then, i guess I'll join my fellow Shu and say Unvote, Vote Abandon Hope
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Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
This is going to end badly. Oh well, there's still still a chance for the town, so I'll beg.
Please, please, please believe me. Fade, Arimnaes, Keeper, someone step in here. Kenji, you know how suspicious I can look and remain town! Surely one of you voting me will reconsider?
It's a bit late now, seeing as you've already passed the lynch point. If you're really town and still want to help out, then give us any last analysis or information that might be helpful.
Yep, I'm dead. Missed your vote fade. Oh well, I deserved this for bungling things. But the rest of the town doesn't deserve it. Kill Az, Kenji.
After that? Go nuts. I'm naturally suspicous of RafaelK for his vigorous attack on me. No matter how fallacious OMGUS is, it's still the natural tendancy. I think he might be scum. It explain his over vigorous fight to lynch me, while those I consider town took it as a matter of quick logic.
Fade seemed a little defensive about being part of the three I mentioned. Arimnaes seemed relativly unconcerned. Don't know which is more suspicous.
Doc protect Kenji as much as possible, also Loran. I'm guessing an attempted kill on Kenji was prevented triggering his "block," so you've been doing well so far. My one time protection ability used an altar that i'm guessing set up an aura.
The southern Mystic appears once again, nodding his head quickly. “So, it would seem this descision is somewhat unanimous, then?” Immediately, Abandon Hope is gone. “How sad. This was one of your fellow Shu brethren: a man named Ma Su, a devoted student in the arts of warfare. Oh well, perhaps you will do better the next time.”
It’s now Night.Actions due at 9:29 AM, Thursday, July 13th.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
The Northern Mystic greets you all in the morning in the standard way. “There is only one of you missing today, but, alas, it is a fairly important one.” The mirror shows loran16, with a knife in his back. “This is Liu Bei, emperor of the kingdom of Shu. It will be a far more difficult task for the kingdom to prevail without him, but you can certainly move on..
“There are 6 of you alive, so 4 will be needed to make a consensus. Good luck.”
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
I wonder if losing Liu Bei actually makes it more difficult for us? (beyond simply losing a townie)
Looks like I'll need to re-assess. RafK and arimnaes are not as clear as I had previously thought. I also don't like Azrael's vote at the end of yesterday.
Bah. I really don't want to have to do another re-read.
Guys, we have very strong evidence that there are 2 scum left (the only other possibility is that Kenji is the lone scum, which does not fit with the nightkill activity, if I recall correctly).
Therefore, we are in lynch-or-lose.
I believe we need full information right now. See what happened in Star Trek.
Kenji was blocked when anyone reasonable would assume he was likely to kill Az (especially given that AH recommended it himself), and the issue with Az seeing cp/AH's roleblock when the vanillas did not is still there. I'm confident Az is scum, and given the rush (which, unfortunately, I participated in) to not get Az lynched, I'd say he's actually the non-Cao Cao scum. Someone had to push hard and perhaps reveal themselves to the wagon onto AH instead of Az; why do that if Az was unlynchable?
vote Azrael. Get him!
Oh, and incidentally, I think I agree with fade on that front. Any idea on claim order?
I see. Someone is trying to be tricky. And unfortunately, with the information we have available to us right now, it seems like they'll have every opportunity to get away with it. Hopefully these final claims will shed a little more light on the situation before we have to make our final decision.
So Fadeblue, Raf, and Arimnaes remain unclaimed. Kenji's vig claim has remained beyond question since it hasn't been counter-claimed, but we have yet to see his ability confirmed. Keeper claimed mason with who? The double mason quandary still remains somewhat unresolved, although I seem to remember that he was one of the actual masons, not one of the semi-just-friends masons. And lastly there is me, who you already know as a retaliatory protecter/tiger general.
I wonder if Fayul considered that role as an appropriate replacement for a vigilante. But if so, then I think that still begs the question of how Kenji would have known that he could safely claim vigilante, so I don't think that Kenji is uncleared. He's still the most confirmed townie we have.
I'm fairly ambivalent about the claim order of the remaining few. I wouldn't be opposed to a Rafaelk, FB, Arimnaes order, however. Rafaelk since he seems to be the consensus choice for dispatching AH yesterday, FB since he was most interested in determing the order after that and he's been relatively low-profile, followed by Arimnaes by default.
You, unless you'd like to explain why the scum would prevent a townie from being vigged.
Kenji's vig claim has remained beyond question since it hasn't been counter-claimed, but we have yet to see his ability confirmed.
Two dead people say otherwise.
Keeper claimed mason with who?
Someone who was already dead. matjoe, I think.
The double mason quandary still remains somewhat unresolved, although I seem to remember that he was one of the actual masons, not one of the semi-just-friends masons.
His claim was full mason, yes.
And lastly there is me, who you already know as a retaliatory protecter/tiger general.
It makes sense to me at this point that one of the other Five Tiger Generals is probably going to be a scum falseclaim. I'm Huang Zhong, Five Tiger General, fyi. The doctor, in a manner of speaking, although more of a bodyguard/protector really in the way it works. I hoped my direction in-thread to the doctor to protect loran would scare the scum off while I kept Kenji up (with AH revealed as town, I figured we would need Kenji alive at least one more night), but so much for that.
[quuote]I wonder if Fayul considered that role as an appropriate replacement for a vigilante.[/quote]
It could certainly create a fun stand-off if it was real, but I bet it's not.
I'm fairly ambivalent about the claim order of the remaining few. I wouldn't be opposed to a Rafaelk, FB, Arimnaes order, however. Rafaelk since he seems to be the consensus choice for dispatching AH yesterday, FB since he was most interested in determing the order after that and he's been relatively low-profile, followed by Arimnaes by default.
Scum or not, that order makes reasonable sense, and as you can see above- I've done my bit.
Well, I had previously pegged RafK as doctor, which is why I thought he was clear, but loran's death last night brings that greatly into question. And if we don't have a doc, then I'm more inclined to believe Az's role. It's not necessarily so, because I also have protection, and Ged long ago demonstrated his. 2 unkillables with no doc isn't that great, but it's not impossible; 2 unkillables + 1 retaliator + no doc is believable.
Yes, I'm claiming protection. I'm Wei Yan, unkillable. Which is why I accounted for a missing kill on Night 3, as my PM indicated I had been attacked.
From what I've read, Wei Yan is sixth (in terms of military importance) after the Five Tiger Generals. Consider what we have so far:
Ged (dead), a claimed un-nightkillable, confirmed townie.
Me, a claimed un-nightkillable, Wei Yan.
Az, a claimed retaliatory killer, Ma Chao (Tiger General).
RafK, a claimed doctor, Huang Zhong (Tiger General).
Also consider this: if Az, RafK, and I are all telling the truth, then our mafia must be Keeper + arimnaes. Is that plausible? (Well, we'll see what arimnaes claims.)
RafK should eventually answer the question: who were his previous targets?
RafK should also eventually answer the question: why were you pressing so hard for the Az lynch straight off the bat today? I would think it obvious that Kenji being blocked does NOT mean Az is necessarily scum, yet RafK seems to think that's solid evidence and votes him right away.
You, unless you'd like to explain why the scum would prevent a townie from being vigged.
Have you forgotten how many people are left in this game? That's right, 6. Mafia do not yet have a win even if we are down to 5. Thus, their goal is to survive today. The easiest way for them to create a mislynch is to:
1) Have more possible lynch candidates so we can't yet use process of elimination
2) Keep alive a highly suspected player.
It should be CLEAR that the question of "why is Az alive if he is town?" is an immense WIFOM point. We should NOT be placing the fate of this game on that faulty speculation.
RafK + arimnaes strongly have my attention after yesterday's outcome, and particularly RafK for his immediate push on Az at the start of today.
We need to hear arimnaes, and then RafK has some answering to do.
Hua Tuo, Shu Physician. Doctor. Methinks the remaining mafiates are Azrael and RafaelK. Az for reasons already stated by others, RafaelK because I don't believe there would be two doctors.
Targets (The first two nights this was SOS, keep in mind.)
Night 1: Hawkeye (no result)
Night 2: Azrael (no result)
Night 3: carrion_pigeons (This was a successful protect against what I first suspected and later learned for sure was the SK kill. I saw CP attacked by a "monstrous warrior", then once he was gone I rushed up and cured CP. Subsequently, when Kenji claimed his vig targets and claimed the kill on I think Hunted Charlie night 3, I became relatively sure he wasn't the SK, because the person I thought was the SK and later turned out to be swinkee was killing CP on night 3.)
Night 4: carrion_pigeons (no result)
Night 5: No target (I seemed to have been targetting the same person as the "magic aura" roleblock, which made me suspicious that I might be a roleblocking doc. When I no targeted and the block happened anyway, I learned this was not the case.)
Night 6: Kenji (successful, I found him with a gaping chest wound which I fixed up.)
Night 7: Kenji (no result)
My scum list right now is Az and RafK, which seems to be fairly common at the moment. I can't see there being two doctors, and Kenji's confirmation of armineas' protection is pretty damning.
As far as I can tell, the only possible scum pairs are Raf/Az and Raf/Keeper. In which case, I think it makes the most sense for us to lynch Raf today, unless it's more likely that he's Cao Cao.
It's in our best interests to determine which of those two pairs is correct, and then to determine which one is not Cao Cao. I'll try to do a reread later on, but I'm out for the rest of the afternoon.
Well, we would be technically okay, but we'd be better off getting rid of the non-Cao Cao scum, as it would put us ahead and we can finish the game off at night, assuming Cao Cao isn't the roleblocker.
Of course, this is only if we can actually figure out the scum pair today. Otherwise, lynching RafK would be the best play. If he's Cao Cao, things get tricky because Kenji likely gets blocked while arimnaes dies, and then we still don't have any more info for tomorrow - though hopefully Cao Cao would be lynchable at that point, so we can still move forward.
Keeper: Your role is only a masonry with Matjoeman, and nothing else? Any description of your character?
By the way, heads-up to everyone: starting Thursday, I will have limited internet access until the 3rd. I should still be able to check the game once per day, but more than that is unlikely.
Given Kenji's claim, I have to accept that arimnaes is who he says he is, notwithstanding the amount of defensive abilities going around (I think fade and I learned, from the scum side of the fence, how many defensive abilities really can exist when we were in English Lit mafia). I suspect he might be a bit more limited than it appears, and it doesn't matter at this point to say why, being as we've got confirmation that the SK etc are gone.
My limitation, as a protector (rather than a doctor, as arimnaes has said) is that I can be overpowered by (to paraphrase) the very strongest, in which case the kill is not prevented. From day 1, I assumed this meant Lu Bu and you'll see if you read back that I was always confident pushing the idea that Lu Bu would turn out to be our SK. At any rate, it seems to me I can guard against Wei kills but not others (it's a hypothetical point only, but I probably couldn't protect against a Kenji- Zhang Fei- kill either, had it come up).
The counterbalance would be a doctor who can heal against kills made by others. arimnaes has successfuly protected only against kills made by non-Wei. This makes sense to me in terms of design. I can believe it exists. It could also be a really really brilliant way to suck us into believing arimnaes is cleared (especially given the studious playing-around of the actual Wei kill targets, including a night where instead of just protecting someone out-of-the-way he claims to have protected no-one so as to clear himself of being a roleblocking doctor), but that seems particularly unlikely given the other options at hand. Well played if so.
Despite fade's points in defence of Az, I can't see a valid defence. mathematically, the mafia would have been better served to let a townie Az die last night... then, if we were to lynch Cao Cao today, they would win tonight. Instead, a Cao Cao "lynch" today should still let us win tomorrow with a correct lynch (provided that Kenji doesn't misvig tonight).
Wei Yen is not an entirely safe claim from fadeblue either. As I started to write this, my idea was an Azrael/keeper mafia, but writing above that fadeblue defended Az and fadeblue is attacking me purely on my claim? I have been bamboozled. And I hadn't taken into account the stuff Abandon Hope had said before he died.
fade:
-has just tried to clear himself based on name-claiming Wei Yen and trying to make himself sound important
-has just acted like his self-protection is confirmed when it is not... because:
Quote from Abandon Hope »
My one time protection ability used an altar that i'm guessing set up an aura.
Quote from fadeblue »
An altar? Yup, you're scum.
I think AH is responsible for the additional missed kill. Not you. But you knew about the altar. How is that?
I'm not sure whether you have protection but are scum, or whether you're just doing exactly the same thing as I think Az is doing- making up an ability to deter vigging.
I stuffed up and bandwagonned AH yesterday, and you rode along behind me doing the whole "I agree" scum thing ramming it home. Congratulations, but you're not home yet.
My plan- we lynch Az (the sure thing), and vig fade to at least test his ability and see what flavour Kenji gets. I think Az will die if we do that; the pattern of yesterday (which I acknowledge I fell into) was to make it look like Az wanted to be the lynch, when actually the point is anything but... I think Az is actually the vulnerable one, and fade is Cao Cao. Explains a lot about how the Wei have pulled together from the bad start they got, actually, a remaining mafia of fadeblue and Azrael.
Last night I was trying to figure out on what basis it was that fadeblue was cleared.
For reference, I am Sun Qian, a scholar who studies strategies with Jian Yong (matejoeman). We can recognize eachother on site, and are able to talk freely to eachother.
RafK: On what basis are you claiming that arimnaes can only prevent non-Wei kills? He never mentioned anything of the sort, and I'm more inclined to believe him about his own ability. Then you even go out of the way to raise the possibility of arimnaes trying to clear himself with a limited-doc claim (which he didn't), when that would implicate a Kenji/arim pair (and I think we've all agreed that Kenji isn't scum).
As for Az, I finally had time to think it over again, and it seems we both missed an even stronger point - if Az were telling the truth about his ability, letting Kenji kill Az is actually a possible loss of 2 townies at once.
I've never claimed that I am clear, nor have I tried to "clear myself". I am letting my play do the talking, and if the rest of you can't see that I'm town, then so be it. Your attempt to turn the suspicion onto me is noted, though.
Why do I know about the altar? Because my Night 3 PM described the altar to me. And it's there where I was attacked.
In the end, rather than letting the day go longer so we can properly analyze the situation, you're pushing this lynch as strongly as possible. That doesn't strike me as quite townie.
You also have yet to answer the question: Who were your protection targets?
RafK: On what basis are you claiming that arimnaes can only prevent non-Wei kills?
Speculative. I know my ability, I trust Kenji that arimnaes is who he says he is, and I don't believe arimnaes can be a full doctor if I'm not, plus arimnaes' protection pattern of 2 non-mafia kill protects and 0 mafia protects doesn't exactly disagree with me.
He never mentioned anything of the sort,
Admitting you can't actually protect against the mafia kill would be a dumb thing to do if you don't have to (assuming arim even knows for sure... as I said, mine doesn't explicitly say that I couldn't guard against the SK, it's something I had to work out). I wouldn't have brought that out, but a townie lynch will end us at this point; better the scum know our abilities than you lynch me and lose the game because I didn't do everything I could to clear myself.
Then you even go out of the way to raise the possibility of arimnaes trying to clear himself with a limited-doc claim (which he didn't)
Misrepresentation. I raised the possibility of arimnaes being a mafia doc (or the mafia roleblocking-doc, existence of which has been raised before by a number of people due to that "protective aura" thing), because it's there. The pattern could fit a mafia roleblocking doctor, failing to protect the target of any mafia kill (as I have too, mind you, so no room for criticism there) while roleblocking key personnel such as cp and Kenji. Do I think it's likely? No. Would I be stupid to just say "oh, arimnaes claimed doc, don't even consider if he could be scum"? Yup.
when that would implicate a Kenji/arim pair
No, in fact it wouldn't, and I don't see why you'd go in that direction. I don't get why you would think that.
As for Az, I finally had time to think it over again, and it seems we both missed an even stronger point
Did we both?
if Az were telling the truth about his ability, letting Kenji kill Az is actually a possible loss of 2 townies at once.
Yes. In other words, the mafia would have been mathematically bloody stupid to block Kenji last night if Az is town. I seem to think I've already said that, but it's nice of you to come around and realise your scum buddy is indefensible.
I've never claimed that I am clear, nor have I tried to "clear myself".
Really?
I am letting my play do the talking, and if the rest of you can't see that I'm town, then so be it.
Would it be unfair to translate that to "If you vote for me, you're blind and stupid and you suck"?
Your attempt to turn the suspicion onto me is noted, though.
Heh. Using my own words against me. I am stung.
Why do I know about the altar? Because my Night 3 PM described the altar to me.
This would be the night where you claim that your ability stopped the mafia kill?
And it's there where I was attacked.
Or where you did the attacking?
AH claimed the altar was his protection ability. In hindsight, I think believing him might be tech
In the end, rather than letting the day go longer so we can properly analyze the situation, you're pushing this lynch as strongly as possible. That doesn't strike me as quite townie.
My strategy has had one success already- rather than pursuing this "hmm, is it Raf and Az or Raf and Keeper?" thing and acting like Az can be defended, you've had to admit that Az is the guy.
You also have yet to answer the question: Who were your protection targets?
I don't have copies of my PMs saved, but I do have the list in my notes at home. I'll post it when I get home tonight (so about 12 hours or so).
Speculative. I know my ability, I trust Kenji that arimnaes is who he says he is, and I don't believe arimnaes can be a full doctor if I'm not, plus arimnaes' protection pattern of 2 non-mafia kill protects and 0 mafia protects doesn't exactly disagree with me.
Seeing as he never attempted to protect someone who was killed by the Mafia, it doesn't exactly agree with you either. We'll see whether arimnaes has more to say about his role.
Misrepresentation? Did you forget where you said this:
It could also be a really really brilliant way to suck us into believing arimnaes is cleared (especially given the studious playing-around of the actual Wei kill targets, including a night where instead of just protecting someone out-of-the-way he claims to have protected no-one so as to clear himself of being a roleblocking doctor),
As for arimnaes being a mafia roleblocking-doc, you seem to forget that Kenji successfully vigged Cyan the night he confirmed that arimnaes saved him. Or was that intentional?
Now, if arimnaes is simply a mafia doc (without roleblocking), why would he protect Kenji that night, unless Kenji is his scum partner?
Don't you see why arimnaes being scum implicates Kenji? Or do you have some other theory that could account for arimnaes being a mafia doc along with someone else here?
Did we both?
Did you ever bring it up? Your rebuttal in your previous post indicates that you weren't thinking of it.
Yes. In other words, the mafia would have been mathematically bloody stupid to block Kenji last night if Az is town. I seem to think I've already said that, but it's nice of you to come around and realise your scum buddy is indefensible.
And it's nice of you to make that jab.
Really?
Can you point to where I tried to clear myself?
Would it be unfair to translate that to "If you vote for me, you're blind and stupid and you suck"?
Sure, if you like
This would be the night where you claim that your ability stopped the mafia kill?
Night 3, when I was attacked.
Or where you did the attacking?
AH claimed the altar was his protection ability. In hindsight, I think believing him might be tech
Nice observation, but your imagination deceives you. I'm sure you won't believe me, but at least *I* know what happened to myself that night.
My strategy has had one success already- rather than pursuing this "hmm, is it Raf and Az or Raf and Keeper?" thing and acting like Az can be defended, you've had to admit that Az is the guy.
Az has always been at or near the top of my list. But in the endgame, I have to consider all possibilities, and so far, things haven't been adding up with regards to you. So while I still believe Az to be very likely, I'd like to not lose here simply because we're blinding ourselves to other possibilities.
We'll see whether arimnaes has more to say about his role.
Naturally. arimnaes knows what his role is, you know what your alignment is. I'm not trying to convince YOU that you're scum, and I'm not trying to convince arimnaes that he's something he's not.
Misrepresentation?
You said I raised the possibility of "arimnaes trying to clear himself with a limited-doc claim". arimnaes never claimed limited-doc and I never said arimnaes did that; I said it was a possibility (and only that) that arimnaes was a mafia doc. Protecting Kenji could be a really clever plot, it's just not likely. It's not a possibility I feel a burning need to explore further. Feel free to keep trying to bring it up, though.
As for arimnaes being a mafia roleblocking-doc, you seem to forget that Kenji successfully vigged Cyan the night he confirmed that arimnaes saved him.
I did say arimnaes was very unlikely to be scum, didn't I? Oh good, so I did.
Quit making this all about arimnaes rather than about you (or Az).
Nice observation, but your imagination deceives you. I'm sure you won't believe me, but at least *I* know what happened to myself that night.
To me it makes more sense that you know about the altar either because AH protected you or because it blocked a kill you/your buddies did, and in any case it's fairly standard procedure to put claimed unkillables to the test. Unkillable townie is a VERY strong role; not too long ago, we just assumed anyone with nightkill protection was a mafia godfather and lynched them, but mods here seem to love power roles like that these days, so we have to use actual logic to tell if they're scum or not.
At any rate, I'm not going to convince you that you're scum and you're not going to convince me that I'm scum, so I'd rather see what everyone else thinks about all this before continuing. As we all saw in Star Trek mafia, my intuition can be a bit spotty.
I'm pretty certain Raf is scum, but I'm not sure whether he's Cao Cao or not. I'm going to reread the thread once I have full access back, checking his interactions with Azrael, fadeblue, and Keeper. I'd suggest everyone else do the same. This is a win we should be able to get, but we have to be a bit cautious and methodical around this endgame, methinks.
I'm a little disappointed to learn that I saved Kenji from a retaliatory kill; I was really hoping that was a mafia extra-kill. Still, good thing he's alive, one way or the other.
Also, people who are already voting should unvote until we decide the lynch. Mafia speedlynch is still a viable possibility.
Quote from fadeblue »
We'll see whether arimnaes has more to say about his role.
Night 1: Azrael (standard no-information protect)
Night 2: epeeguy/swinkee (seemed most-confirmed townie at the time)
Night 3: swinkee again
Night 4: cp (now seemed most clear)
Night 5: Kenji
Night 6: Kenji (no Wei attack)
Night 7: Kenji (hoping my mention to the doc to protect loran would convince the scum loran was protected)
Oh, and since no-one's, you know, tried to analyze me or anything, I figured I might help.
I had a pretty good day one, really. I spotted epee's SK giveaway tell (and promptly failed to follow through on it, damn it), I quietly got out my information as to the existence of Lu Bu the really strong SK, and strongly backed the nation claim idea which bagged us a mafia right there and also forced the Wu issue into the open before it bit us (and gave us some strong leads as to the real Wu).
Keen observers will note that in this game, the mafia may talk during the day, just as in Sin City. I would have to be utterly bloody stupid to set up a plan to trap a fellow mafia on day 1. WIFOM doesn't even come into it, it would just be a horrible play if I could have fed cpe the tactics... we can tell now that the Wei had a max four players, going down to 3 on day 1 to not even clear a mafia member at all would just be pointless.
The real conclusion here is- I'm not scum, but I helped trap one on day 1, and I helped root out the lying Wu and sort out the Dong Zhuo mafia (including being correct about the killing order to use in order to prevent any further kills), and now I have Azrael dead to rights if you'll just stop listening to fadeblue...
I did some thinking last night before I went to sleep, and I'm going to admit that I've felt RafK's play this game to be pretty good, and right now my case against him almost purely relies on the doc claim. With arimnaes claiming full doc (that is a full doc claim, right?), I am incredibly doubtful of RafK as doc, particularly when he says he needed to "figure out" that he is only a partial doc. By the way, how exactly did you figure that out, Raf?
On the other hand, if RafK is actually town, then the scum has to be Az/Keeper (from my POV, obv), which still makes sense. Remember that aside from CC, Az and Keeper were the only other ones remotely defending cpe on Day 1.
By the way, how exactly did you figure that out, Raf?
As I said- to paraphrase my PM, there's a bit in it that says that the only the very strongest / most powerful in the land can overcome me. I took that hint to mean that I couldn't defend against Lu Bu, although in the event I never protected someone who was attacked by Lu Bu so I suppose I don't know for sure.
As to why Lu Bu, in the book, my character fought a hundred bouts with Guan Yu (himself rated as one of the handful of strongest fighters in RotTK) with neither gaining the upper hand. Only Lu Bu and perhaps Zhang Fei would be considered to be definitely stronger than Guan Yu.
I've been aware of the possibility of multiple protection abilities since we first learned that cp had been targeted by swinkee and saved, so it doesn't come as a huge shock to me.
The flip side of the multiple defensive abilities (and even if you take both fade's claim and my claim out of it, we've had a bunch of them) is that as far as we know there was only one town information role at all in a game with two killing groups and a potential third killing group where every non-Shu had a false claim provided. We haven't lynched badly on the whole, and we've had at least two good viggings to assist, and we're still on the brink. Without the successful protects we've had (arim's pair, and the one which either AH or fade was responsible for), we'd have already lost without playing particularly badly. The design appears to be that instead of roles to assist us zero in on the scum with investigations, we get some protection while we try to lynch scum through logic, and there's a lot of proven defensive roles already to back up that theory.
Of course, the continuation of that theory would suggest that it's quite possible at least one scum would also have a defensive ability to reduce the effect of cross-fire, and that may well be where fade comes in.
Vote stands on Azrael, though.
Oh, actually, unvote Azrael. I'm happy to be last vote on him if it would make people more comfortable.
I really enjoy RafK's continued use of a double-standard. Sure, there could be a scum with a defensive ability, but of course that means it's me rather than Raf, right?
Or how Raf gives himself credit for backing the nation claim, yet I don't get credit for pushing the cpe lynch, even against CC's defense of him? Let's examine something here:
Keen observers will note that in this game, the mafia may talk during the day, just as in Sin City. I would have to be utterly bloody stupid to set up a plan to trap a fellow mafia on day 1. WIFOM doesn't even come into it, it would just be a horrible play if I could have fed cpe the tactics... we can tell now that the Wei had a max four players, going down to 3 on day 1 to not even clear a mafia member at all would just be pointless.
Obviously, no one at all fed cpe any tactics, not even after the plan had been put into effect. So it's horrible play on the Mafia's part regardless of RafK - this should not be evidence to clear him. CC at least knew where the plan was going, so is it horrible play on CC's part for not telling cpe what he should do?
Note that RafK's theory of the moment is that Az and I are scum together. Consider the play, then, with Az, CC, cpe, and me as scum. cpe makes a bad claim, and I push. Az argues that we don't need to go after Wu (and others start to agree with him), while CC jumps in with a defense of cpe. So I don't take the cue and let the wagon die? Instead I clash with CC and keep the wagon alive, so that we can go down to 3 scum on Day 1.
Then, CC dies in the night, bringing us down to 2. So why do I keep calling attention to Az for the rest of the game? So I can try to win on my own against multiple factions with several days to play?? As RafK tries to argue in his own defense, this is beyond WIFOM. This is SUICIDAL if I am scum with Az.
At this point, I submit to the rest of the town my play as evidence that I cannot be scum with Az. Given that we basically have Kenji and arimnaes as the only true cleared players, we have only 4 players in question, and we know 2 of them are scum. Thus there are only 6 possible pairs, and if we can methodically eliminate pairs based on the evidence we have, we can make it easier for us to determine the best lynch. I hope it's obvious that one of those pairs (me + Az) is incredibly improbable.
To a lesser degree, I also ask the town to consider that the pair of me/Keeper is unlikely based on the same actions of calling Az and Keeper into question for their defense of cpe, though of course this isn't as strong a case becuase Keeper wasn't as involved in the whole cpe thing, and I never pushed against Keeper as much as I did against Az.
If the town accepts these arguments, then we can narrow our hunt down to:
me/Raf
Az/Raf
Az/Keeper
Raf/Keeper
OK, I'm guilty of not analyzing your play either. We should really know better than to jump people purely on claims.
It's not a double-standard, though, I know what I am so of course I trust my own claim. Duh.
I think a real re-read (41 pages ugh) is warranted. The town blew Sin City by depending too much on claims, the town nearly blew my SFTDM by depending too much on claims ("Pilate's gotta be scum!"), Trek mafia look at all the stupid focus on whether such and such role was more likely to be scum or whether such and such ability was more likely to be scum.
We have 41 pages at 40 posts per page. The scum should be evident with hindsight.
I sincerely doubt much is going to shake me on Azrael, just because it makes no sense to block a vig attempt on him if he's town and telling the truth, but we'll see.
As such, the pairings I see as realistic prior to the re-read are Az/fade or Az/keeper.
Quote from creampuffeater »
ok sorry for my absence... but I am here and will claim as all of you want. I am Zhuge Jin, the brother of Zhuge Liang (yes i know he was mentioned earlier :() My role is copish, but not a full cop. Every night I can look for Cao Cao only not other mafia. So far I know that Az is not Cao Cao. I dont really understand the flavor, but it is something like i have some of my brothers military skills....
The design appears to be that instead of roles to assist us zero in on the scum with investigations, we get some protection while we try to lynch scum through logic, and there's a lot of proven defensive roles already to back up that theory.
We had a cop. He was killed night 0, remember?
Still not liking Raf. Without damning evidence against anyone else, I might go for him. On the other hand, the fact that Kenji was blocked when he announced he was going to vig Az is pretty damning itself. If Az were town, and therefore telling the truth about the kill reflection, it would have been strictly better for the scum to leave Kenji unblocked so that he could just kill himself and they could start blocking elsewhere.
On second thought, I'll probably go for Az today as my default.
The CPE quote is rather intriguing. I have no idea if that makes Az more or less likely to be Cao Cao.
In theory, we're not boned if we try and fail to lynch Cao Cao today. However, that theory could go drastically wrong if the mafia has an extra kill left or something.
My reread still yields Az as the most likely scum. Just way too many things wrong with his play.
While I'm still wary of Raf trying to pull a play here, I can't find enough evidence to say that we're better off lynching him than Az. But there are only two possibilities where Raf is scum:
1) Raf/Az are scum. I imagine this can only be the case if Az is Cao Cao and they're trying to buy an extra day of confusion. In that case, we're fine, because arimnaes should be protecting Kenji and Raf should be protecting arimnaes, leaving only Keeper and Raf as possible Mafia targets (since the block needs to be used on Kenji). Either way, it narrows down the suspects for us.
2) Raf/Keeper are scum. I don't see there being evidence against this, but I don't really see evidence for it, either. At least, nothing that outweighs the evidence that Az is scum.
I don't see #2 as likely at all (though I will cry if it is true). I've been wary all day about #1, but I'm pretty sure that even if we attempt to lynch Az and fail, we should still be able to take the win.
I'm most comfortable with an Az lynch right now. Will continue to reread.
I'm in the FOS Azreal camp as well, looking on finishing up my re-read this evening, but so far, nothing's jumped out at me that hasn't already been brought up.
So with one more FOS/Vote thingy, Az would be lynched... Are we all happy with this? [Apart from Az obviously who wont be, Az who do you want lynched?]
In a moment. I'm trying to think this through. Carry on for now.
Yeah, not so much.
Going to night guaranteed to have two scum including a roleblocker active is so fun. You realise that if you (for the sake of argument) are not scum, there is another scum roleblocker out there? So this plan wouldn't work anyway?
Or... you could block and kill Kenji, leaving us with the trouble of unlynchable Cao Cao and no way of knowing how to remove it (although I'm sure there'll be a way). Or... you could block Kenji and kill loran, which might trigger God mode for Cao Cao or something.
I don't like plans which rely 100% on the suspected scum not, in fact, being scum.
We'll just trust you on that. Except... no. And incidentally, letting yourself die as a townie would aid the mafia and be a major non-no, but of course scum do like making empty promises
If it turns out you're Cao Cao and we really should lynch Az first, you (verbally) and Az (failure to seriously defend himself) have done a fantastic con job convincing me that you desperately want us to try to lynch Az first, I'll give you that.
Vote Abandon Hope
Indeed.
At leasr Kenji has claimed to be blocked once. I'd have to re-read, I do recall others (I think cp?). It may have been the work of the Dong Zhuo guys, but they never confessed to that bit even when they spilled everything else.
Fish, fish, fish. No, I'm not telling you whether I have an activated ability.
Anyone can say that. If we gave every scum candidate an extra night to prove themselves, we couldn't possibly win.
Clear as mud :/ If we're completely wrong here, I don't know where to look. Off-hand, I still think Az must be mafia even if you aren't, because I cannot see two out of fade/arim/keeper as mafia.
WIFOM, plus I have seen Az' scum plans come unstuck before (I seem to recall a scum-cult alliance go badly wrong about a year ago, for example...). Stuff happens.
Hopefully this one ends tonight. Was fade's vote the hammer, or do we need one more?
sarnathed by Kenji I see. Well, that should be night, and as long as loran/Liu Bei survives we should be OK. Kenji, if it turns out AH was cao cao after all obviously try to get him instead
See you in the next game, folks. Get 'em for me.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Please, please, please believe me. Fade, Arimnaes, Keeper, someone step in here. Kenji, you know how suspicious I can look and remain town! Surely one of you voting me will reconsider?
It's a bit late now, seeing as you've already passed the lynch point. If you're really town and still want to help out, then give us any last analysis or information that might be helpful.
After that? Go nuts. I'm naturally suspicous of RafaelK for his vigorous attack on me. No matter how fallacious OMGUS is, it's still the natural tendancy. I think he might be scum. It explain his over vigorous fight to lynch me, while those I consider town took it as a matter of quick logic.
Fade seemed a little defensive about being part of the three I mentioned. Arimnaes seemed relativly unconcerned. Don't know which is more suspicous.
Doc protect Kenji as much as possible, also Loran. I'm guessing an attempted kill on Kenji was prevented triggering his "block," so you've been doing well so far. My one time protection ability used an altar that i'm guessing set up an aura.
Once again, I deserved this. Good luck.
And this one's a gem as well:
It’s now Night.Actions due at 9:29 AM, Thursday, July 13th.
Final vote count:
Abandon hope (Rafaelk, fadeblue, Kenji, Azrael, Loran16)
Not voting: Arimnaes, abandon hope, KeeperEUSC
5 to Lynch.
“There are 6 of you alive, so 4 will be needed to make a consensus. Good luck.”
Looks like I'll need to re-assess. RafK and arimnaes are not as clear as I had previously thought. I also don't like Azrael's vote at the end of yesterday.
Bah. I really don't want to have to do another re-read.
Az: Ma Chao (retaliatory kill)
Keeper: Sun Qian (masons with Matjoeman)
Kenji: ? (vigilante)
I can't find any other claim information, and I've lost my notes. Someone else fill this in if we've had other claims so far.
We have left:
Azreal
Keeper
Kenji
armineas
RafealK
fadeblue
Of these, I'm fairly confident Az is scum. Our problem lies in not knowing who Cao Cao is.
Therefore, we are in lynch-or-lose.
I believe we need full information right now. See what happened in Star Trek.
vote Azrael. Get him!
Oh, and incidentally, I think I agree with fade on that front. Any idea on claim order?
Oh, and no one else vote, please.
I see. Someone is trying to be tricky. And unfortunately, with the information we have available to us right now, it seems like they'll have every opportunity to get away with it. Hopefully these final claims will shed a little more light on the situation before we have to make our final decision.
So Fadeblue, Raf, and Arimnaes remain unclaimed. Kenji's vig claim has remained beyond question since it hasn't been counter-claimed, but we have yet to see his ability confirmed. Keeper claimed mason with who? The double mason quandary still remains somewhat unresolved, although I seem to remember that he was one of the actual masons, not one of the semi-just-friends masons. And lastly there is me, who you already know as a retaliatory protecter/tiger general.
I wonder if Fayul considered that role as an appropriate replacement for a vigilante. But if so, then I think that still begs the question of how Kenji would have known that he could safely claim vigilante, so I don't think that Kenji is uncleared. He's still the most confirmed townie we have.
I'm fairly ambivalent about the claim order of the remaining few. I wouldn't be opposed to a Rafaelk, FB, Arimnaes order, however. Rafaelk since he seems to be the consensus choice for dispatching AH yesterday, FB since he was most interested in determing the order after that and he's been relatively low-profile, followed by Arimnaes by default.
Yes.
You, unless you'd like to explain why the scum would prevent a townie from being vigged.
Two dead people say otherwise.
Someone who was already dead. matjoe, I think.
His claim was full mason, yes.
It makes sense to me at this point that one of the other Five Tiger Generals is probably going to be a scum falseclaim. I'm Huang Zhong, Five Tiger General, fyi. The doctor, in a manner of speaking, although more of a bodyguard/protector really in the way it works. I hoped my direction in-thread to the doctor to protect loran would scare the scum off while I kept Kenji up (with AH revealed as town, I figured we would need Kenji alive at least one more night), but so much for that.
[quuote]I wonder if Fayul considered that role as an appropriate replacement for a vigilante.[/quote]
It could certainly create a fun stand-off if it was real, but I bet it's not.
Scum or not, that order makes reasonable sense, and as you can see above- I've done my bit.
Yes, I'm claiming protection. I'm Wei Yan, unkillable. Which is why I accounted for a missing kill on Night 3, as my PM indicated I had been attacked.
From what I've read, Wei Yan is sixth (in terms of military importance) after the Five Tiger Generals. Consider what we have so far:
Ged (dead), a claimed un-nightkillable, confirmed townie.
Me, a claimed un-nightkillable, Wei Yan.
Az, a claimed retaliatory killer, Ma Chao (Tiger General).
RafK, a claimed doctor, Huang Zhong (Tiger General).
Also consider this: if Az, RafK, and I are all telling the truth, then our mafia must be Keeper + arimnaes. Is that plausible? (Well, we'll see what arimnaes claims.)
RafK should eventually answer the question: who were his previous targets?
RafK should also eventually answer the question: why were you pressing so hard for the Az lynch straight off the bat today? I would think it obvious that Kenji being blocked does NOT mean Az is necessarily scum, yet RafK seems to think that's solid evidence and votes him right away.
Have you forgotten how many people are left in this game? That's right, 6. Mafia do not yet have a win even if we are down to 5. Thus, their goal is to survive today. The easiest way for them to create a mislynch is to:
1) Have more possible lynch candidates so we can't yet use process of elimination
2) Keep alive a highly suspected player.
It should be CLEAR that the question of "why is Az alive if he is town?" is an immense WIFOM point. We should NOT be placing the fate of this game on that faulty speculation.
RafK + arimnaes strongly have my attention after yesterday's outcome, and particularly RafK for his immediate push on Az at the start of today.
We need to hear arimnaes, and then RafK has some answering to do.
Targets (The first two nights this was SOS, keep in mind.)
Night 1: Hawkeye (no result)
Night 2: Azrael (no result)
Night 3: carrion_pigeons (This was a successful protect against what I first suspected and later learned for sure was the SK kill. I saw CP attacked by a "monstrous warrior", then once he was gone I rushed up and cured CP. Subsequently, when Kenji claimed his vig targets and claimed the kill on I think Hunted Charlie night 3, I became relatively sure he wasn't the SK, because the person I thought was the SK and later turned out to be swinkee was killing CP on night 3.)
Night 4: carrion_pigeons (no result)
Night 5: No target (I seemed to have been targetting the same person as the "magic aura" roleblock, which made me suspicious that I might be a roleblocking doc. When I no targeted and the block happened anyway, I learned this was not the case.)
Night 6: Kenji (successful, I found him with a gaping chest wound which I fixed up.)
Night 7: Kenji (no result)
more later when I have time
My scum list right now is Az and RafK, which seems to be fairly common at the moment. I can't see there being two doctors, and Kenji's confirmation of armineas' protection is pretty damning.
It's in our best interests to determine which of those two pairs is correct, and then to determine which one is not Cao Cao. I'll try to do a reread later on, but I'm out for the rest of the afternoon.
Of course, this is only if we can actually figure out the scum pair today. Otherwise, lynching RafK would be the best play. If he's Cao Cao, things get tricky because Kenji likely gets blocked while arimnaes dies, and then we still don't have any more info for tomorrow - though hopefully Cao Cao would be lynchable at that point, so we can still move forward.
Keeper: Your role is only a masonry with Matjoeman, and nothing else? Any description of your character?
By the way, heads-up to everyone: starting Thursday, I will have limited internet access until the 3rd. I should still be able to check the game once per day, but more than that is unlikely.
My limitation, as a protector (rather than a doctor, as arimnaes has said) is that I can be overpowered by (to paraphrase) the very strongest, in which case the kill is not prevented. From day 1, I assumed this meant Lu Bu and you'll see if you read back that I was always confident pushing the idea that Lu Bu would turn out to be our SK. At any rate, it seems to me I can guard against Wei kills but not others (it's a hypothetical point only, but I probably couldn't protect against a Kenji- Zhang Fei- kill either, had it come up).
The counterbalance would be a doctor who can heal against kills made by others. arimnaes has successfuly protected only against kills made by non-Wei. This makes sense to me in terms of design. I can believe it exists. It could also be a really really brilliant way to suck us into believing arimnaes is cleared (especially given the studious playing-around of the actual Wei kill targets, including a night where instead of just protecting someone out-of-the-way he claims to have protected no-one so as to clear himself of being a roleblocking doctor), but that seems particularly unlikely given the other options at hand. Well played if so.
Despite fade's points in defence of Az, I can't see a valid defence. mathematically, the mafia would have been better served to let a townie Az die last night... then, if we were to lynch Cao Cao today, they would win tonight. Instead, a Cao Cao "lynch" today should still let us win tomorrow with a correct lynch (provided that Kenji doesn't misvig tonight).
Wei Yen is not an entirely safe claim from fadeblue either. As I started to write this, my idea was an Azrael/keeper mafia, but writing above that fadeblue defended Az and fadeblue is attacking me purely on my claim? I have been bamboozled. And I hadn't taken into account the stuff Abandon Hope had said before he died.
fade:
-has just tried to clear himself based on name-claiming Wei Yen and trying to make himself sound important
-has just acted like his self-protection is confirmed when it is not... because:
I think AH is responsible for the additional missed kill. Not you. But you knew about the altar. How is that?
I'm not sure whether you have protection but are scum, or whether you're just doing exactly the same thing as I think Az is doing- making up an ability to deter vigging.
I stuffed up and bandwagonned AH yesterday, and you rode along behind me doing the whole "I agree" scum thing ramming it home. Congratulations, but you're not home yet.
My plan- we lynch Az (the sure thing), and vig fade to at least test his ability and see what flavour Kenji gets. I think Az will die if we do that; the pattern of yesterday (which I acknowledge I fell into) was to make it look like Az wanted to be the lynch, when actually the point is anything but... I think Az is actually the vulnerable one, and fade is Cao Cao. Explains a lot about how the Wei have pulled together from the bad start they got, actually, a remaining mafia of fadeblue and Azrael.
Vote stands on Azrael
For reference, I am Sun Qian, a scholar who studies strategies with Jian Yong (matejoeman). We can recognize eachother on site, and are able to talk freely to eachother.
As for Az, I finally had time to think it over again, and it seems we both missed an even stronger point - if Az were telling the truth about his ability, letting Kenji kill Az is actually a possible loss of 2 townies at once.
I've never claimed that I am clear, nor have I tried to "clear myself". I am letting my play do the talking, and if the rest of you can't see that I'm town, then so be it. Your attempt to turn the suspicion onto me is noted, though.
Why do I know about the altar? Because my Night 3 PM described the altar to me. And it's there where I was attacked.
In the end, rather than letting the day go longer so we can properly analyze the situation, you're pushing this lynch as strongly as possible. That doesn't strike me as quite townie.
You also have yet to answer the question: Who were your protection targets?
Speculative. I know my ability, I trust Kenji that arimnaes is who he says he is, and I don't believe arimnaes can be a full doctor if I'm not, plus arimnaes' protection pattern of 2 non-mafia kill protects and 0 mafia protects doesn't exactly disagree with me.
Admitting you can't actually protect against the mafia kill would be a dumb thing to do if you don't have to (assuming arim even knows for sure... as I said, mine doesn't explicitly say that I couldn't guard against the SK, it's something I had to work out). I wouldn't have brought that out, but a townie lynch will end us at this point; better the scum know our abilities than you lynch me and lose the game because I didn't do everything I could to clear myself.
Misrepresentation. I raised the possibility of arimnaes being a mafia doc (or the mafia roleblocking-doc, existence of which has been raised before by a number of people due to that "protective aura" thing), because it's there. The pattern could fit a mafia roleblocking doctor, failing to protect the target of any mafia kill (as I have too, mind you, so no room for criticism there) while roleblocking key personnel such as cp and Kenji. Do I think it's likely? No. Would I be stupid to just say "oh, arimnaes claimed doc, don't even consider if he could be scum"? Yup.
No, in fact it wouldn't, and I don't see why you'd go in that direction. I don't get why you would think that.
Did we both?
Yes. In other words, the mafia would have been mathematically bloody stupid to block Kenji last night if Az is town. I seem to think I've already said that, but it's nice of you to come around and realise your scum buddy is indefensible.
Really?
Would it be unfair to translate that to "If you vote for me, you're blind and stupid and you suck"?
Heh. Using my own words against me. I am stung.
This would be the night where you claim that your ability stopped the mafia kill?
Or where you did the attacking?
AH claimed the altar was his protection ability. In hindsight, I think believing him might be tech
My strategy has had one success already- rather than pursuing this "hmm, is it Raf and Az or Raf and Keeper?" thing and acting like Az can be defended, you've had to admit that Az is the guy.
I don't have copies of my PMs saved, but I do have the list in my notes at home. I'll post it when I get home tonight (so about 12 hours or so).
Seeing as he never attempted to protect someone who was killed by the Mafia, it doesn't exactly agree with you either. We'll see whether arimnaes has more to say about his role.
Misrepresentation? Did you forget where you said this:
As for arimnaes being a mafia roleblocking-doc, you seem to forget that Kenji successfully vigged Cyan the night he confirmed that arimnaes saved him. Or was that intentional?
Now, if arimnaes is simply a mafia doc (without roleblocking), why would he protect Kenji that night, unless Kenji is his scum partner?
Don't you see why arimnaes being scum implicates Kenji? Or do you have some other theory that could account for arimnaes being a mafia doc along with someone else here?
Did you ever bring it up? Your rebuttal in your previous post indicates that you weren't thinking of it.
And it's nice of you to make that jab.
Can you point to where I tried to clear myself?
Sure, if you like
Night 3, when I was attacked.
Nice observation, but your imagination deceives you. I'm sure you won't believe me, but at least *I* know what happened to myself that night.
Az has always been at or near the top of my list. But in the endgame, I have to consider all possibilities, and so far, things haven't been adding up with regards to you. So while I still believe Az to be very likely, I'd like to not lose here simply because we're blinding ourselves to other possibilities.
Naturally. arimnaes knows what his role is, you know what your alignment is. I'm not trying to convince YOU that you're scum, and I'm not trying to convince arimnaes that he's something he's not.
You said I raised the possibility of "arimnaes trying to clear himself with a limited-doc claim". arimnaes never claimed limited-doc and I never said arimnaes did that; I said it was a possibility (and only that) that arimnaes was a mafia doc. Protecting Kenji could be a really clever plot, it's just not likely. It's not a possibility I feel a burning need to explore further. Feel free to keep trying to bring it up, though.
I did say arimnaes was very unlikely to be scum, didn't I? Oh good, so I did.
Quit making this all about arimnaes rather than about you (or Az).
To me it makes more sense that you know about the altar either because AH protected you or because it blocked a kill you/your buddies did, and in any case it's fairly standard procedure to put claimed unkillables to the test. Unkillable townie is a VERY strong role; not too long ago, we just assumed anyone with nightkill protection was a mafia godfather and lynched them, but mods here seem to love power roles like that these days, so we have to use actual logic to tell if they're scum or not.
At any rate, I'm not going to convince you that you're scum and you're not going to convince me that I'm scum, so I'd rather see what everyone else thinks about all this before continuing. As we all saw in Star Trek mafia, my intuition can be a bit spotty.
I'm a little disappointed to learn that I saved Kenji from a retaliatory kill; I was really hoping that was a mafia extra-kill. Still, good thing he's alive, one way or the other.
Also, people who are already voting should unvote until we decide the lynch. Mafia speedlynch is still a viable possibility.
Nope, that's it.
Night 1: Azrael (standard no-information protect)
Night 2: epeeguy/swinkee (seemed most-confirmed townie at the time)
Night 3: swinkee again
Night 4: cp (now seemed most clear)
Night 5: Kenji
Night 6: Kenji (no Wei attack)
Night 7: Kenji (hoping my mention to the doc to protect loran would convince the scum loran was protected)
Oh, and since no-one's, you know, tried to analyze me or anything, I figured I might help.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=863100&postcount=28
I had a pretty good day one, really. I spotted epee's SK giveaway tell (and promptly failed to follow through on it, damn it), I quietly got out my information as to the existence of Lu Bu the really strong SK, and strongly backed the nation claim idea which bagged us a mafia right there and also forced the Wu issue into the open before it bit us (and gave us some strong leads as to the real Wu).
Keen observers will note that in this game, the mafia may talk during the day, just as in Sin City. I would have to be utterly bloody stupid to set up a plan to trap a fellow mafia on day 1. WIFOM doesn't even come into it, it would just be a horrible play if I could have fed cpe the tactics... we can tell now that the Wei had a max four players, going down to 3 on day 1 to not even clear a mafia member at all would just be pointless.
The real conclusion here is- I'm not scum, but I helped trap one on day 1, and I helped root out the lying Wu and sort out the Dong Zhuo mafia (including being correct about the killing order to use in order to prevent any further kills), and now I have Azrael dead to rights if you'll just stop listening to fadeblue...
On the other hand, if RafK is actually town, then the scum has to be Az/Keeper (from my POV, obv), which still makes sense. Remember that aside from CC, Az and Keeper were the only other ones remotely defending cpe on Day 1.
Rereading today.
As I said- to paraphrase my PM, there's a bit in it that says that the only the very strongest / most powerful in the land can overcome me. I took that hint to mean that I couldn't defend against Lu Bu, although in the event I never protected someone who was attacked by Lu Bu so I suppose I don't know for sure.
As to why Lu Bu, in the book, my character fought a hundred bouts with Guan Yu (himself rated as one of the handful of strongest fighters in RotTK) with neither gaining the upper hand. Only Lu Bu and perhaps Zhang Fei would be considered to be definitely stronger than Guan Yu.
I've been aware of the possibility of multiple protection abilities since we first learned that cp had been targeted by swinkee and saved, so it doesn't come as a huge shock to me.
The flip side of the multiple defensive abilities (and even if you take both fade's claim and my claim out of it, we've had a bunch of them) is that as far as we know there was only one town information role at all in a game with two killing groups and a potential third killing group where every non-Shu had a false claim provided. We haven't lynched badly on the whole, and we've had at least two good viggings to assist, and we're still on the brink. Without the successful protects we've had (arim's pair, and the one which either AH or fade was responsible for), we'd have already lost without playing particularly badly. The design appears to be that instead of roles to assist us zero in on the scum with investigations, we get some protection while we try to lynch scum through logic, and there's a lot of proven defensive roles already to back up that theory.
Of course, the continuation of that theory would suggest that it's quite possible at least one scum would also have a defensive ability to reduce the effect of cross-fire, and that may well be where fade comes in.
Vote stands on Azrael, though.
Oh, actually, unvote Azrael. I'm happy to be last vote on him if it would make people more comfortable.
Or how Raf gives himself credit for backing the nation claim, yet I don't get credit for pushing the cpe lynch, even against CC's defense of him? Let's examine something here:
Obviously, no one at all fed cpe any tactics, not even after the plan had been put into effect. So it's horrible play on the Mafia's part regardless of RafK - this should not be evidence to clear him. CC at least knew where the plan was going, so is it horrible play on CC's part for not telling cpe what he should do?
Note that RafK's theory of the moment is that Az and I are scum together. Consider the play, then, with Az, CC, cpe, and me as scum. cpe makes a bad claim, and I push. Az argues that we don't need to go after Wu (and others start to agree with him), while CC jumps in with a defense of cpe. So I don't take the cue and let the wagon die? Instead I clash with CC and keep the wagon alive, so that we can go down to 3 scum on Day 1.
Then, CC dies in the night, bringing us down to 2. So why do I keep calling attention to Az for the rest of the game? So I can try to win on my own against multiple factions with several days to play?? As RafK tries to argue in his own defense, this is beyond WIFOM. This is SUICIDAL if I am scum with Az.
At this point, I submit to the rest of the town my play as evidence that I cannot be scum with Az. Given that we basically have Kenji and arimnaes as the only true cleared players, we have only 4 players in question, and we know 2 of them are scum. Thus there are only 6 possible pairs, and if we can methodically eliminate pairs based on the evidence we have, we can make it easier for us to determine the best lynch. I hope it's obvious that one of those pairs (me + Az) is incredibly improbable.
To a lesser degree, I also ask the town to consider that the pair of me/Keeper is unlikely based on the same actions of calling Az and Keeper into question for their defense of cpe, though of course this isn't as strong a case becuase Keeper wasn't as involved in the whole cpe thing, and I never pushed against Keeper as much as I did against Az.
If the town accepts these arguments, then we can narrow our hunt down to:
me/Raf
Az/Raf
Az/Keeper
Raf/Keeper
It's not a double-standard, though, I know what I am so of course I trust my own claim. Duh.
I think a real re-read (41 pages ugh) is warranted. The town blew Sin City by depending too much on claims, the town nearly blew my SFTDM by depending too much on claims ("Pilate's gotta be scum!"), Trek mafia look at all the stupid focus on whether such and such role was more likely to be scum or whether such and such ability was more likely to be scum.
We have 41 pages at 40 posts per page. The scum should be evident with hindsight.
I sincerely doubt much is going to shake me on Azrael, just because it makes no sense to block a vig attempt on him if he's town and telling the truth, but we'll see.
As such, the pairings I see as realistic prior to the re-read are Az/fade or Az/keeper.
Partway through day 1 re-read...
Anyone care to play WIFOM with the scum?
We had a cop. He was killed night 0, remember?
Still not liking Raf. Without damning evidence against anyone else, I might go for him. On the other hand, the fact that Kenji was blocked when he announced he was going to vig Az is pretty damning itself. If Az were town, and therefore telling the truth about the kill reflection, it would have been strictly better for the scum to leave Kenji unblocked so that he could just kill himself and they could start blocking elsewhere.
On second thought, I'll probably go for Az today as my default.
The CPE quote is rather intriguing. I have no idea if that makes Az more or less likely to be Cao Cao.
In theory, we're not boned if we try and fail to lynch Cao Cao today. However, that theory could go drastically wrong if the mafia has an extra kill left or something.
While I'm still wary of Raf trying to pull a play here, I can't find enough evidence to say that we're better off lynching him than Az. But there are only two possibilities where Raf is scum:
1) Raf/Az are scum. I imagine this can only be the case if Az is Cao Cao and they're trying to buy an extra day of confusion. In that case, we're fine, because arimnaes should be protecting Kenji and Raf should be protecting arimnaes, leaving only Keeper and Raf as possible Mafia targets (since the block needs to be used on Kenji). Either way, it narrows down the suspects for us.
2) Raf/Keeper are scum. I don't see there being evidence against this, but I don't really see evidence for it, either. At least, nothing that outweighs the evidence that Az is scum.
I don't see #2 as likely at all (though I will cry if it is true). I've been wary all day about #1, but I'm pretty sure that even if we attempt to lynch Az and fail, we should still be able to take the win.
I'm most comfortable with an Az lynch right now. Will continue to reread.
Vote Azrael's imaginary dog.
The discussion can continue.
In a moment. I'm trying to think this through. Carry on for now.