No Mod PM, only banter? What does that mean? Are you saying I didn't use an ability, but instead chatted with the Mod?
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Or chatted with somebody, anyway. That was where Raf got the idea that you could be mafia. Though, as he says, it's hardly a strong point, since it could just as easily be flavor.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
All I know is you did not recieve a PM from the mod that night (which was the pre-game night). I asked the mod about whether abilities get back mod-confirm PM's, and he said they do. Therefore, you did not use an ability night one.
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Albus Dumbledore, Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone
To the well organized mind, death is but the next great adventure.
Wow. RafK is an idiot. Just outted 2 investigative roles for no reason.
What else can I really say besides the truth, which is what RafK has already said?
I don't think it's no reason. Logically, I should be suspicious of you. How could you possible get the aura of evil and the gnawed-on bloodstained note from Hawkeye, town bodyguard? I haven't had anything that descriptive on either of my watches, I should note (flavour yes, descriptive now).
Logically also, if you are a killer you should know I'll be suspicious of you and kill me at the first available opportunity. Hence I had to come out with this right now. It's a risk; but at the very very least, you must be inspected and frankly I think you should be lynched (or vigged while we lynch Azrael).
DM: gods, how dumb. Without even waiting to hear from armlx you voted me because I once in the past made up an outlandish role? That is supremely messed up. Why not vote for whoever was mafia in the last game you played and be done with it? At least armlx is admitting what he told me (and putting egg on your face). Had he denied it, I would have been 100% sure of my conclusion instead of only 90% sure.
neutral =/= anti-town; if we kill all the mafia I'm pretty sure we don't have to then go and kill them. And if they don't have nightkills we can take all the time we need.
I'm guessing you've really only played in standard Mafia games.
The tactic just doesn't make sense to me. I could never imagine a smart player or a mafia with smart comrades attempting it except in the most desperate of circumstances. Maybe thats WIFOM but I don't care.
Mafia isn't a game about everyone following the most sensible course of action.
exactly. theyre either bad for the mafia or bad for both sides. Thus, theyre probably more of a hassle to the mafia alive.
Or they're Mafia themselves.
There's really no more point in arguing these matters with you, as it's not going anywhere. It's now become a distraction, and it really seems it's just a matter of difference between our Mafia experiences.
okay, we'll end it, but I still strongly advocate not vigging them. And I have plenty of experience in complicated games, thank you very much.
Think of this; if they are mafia, why would they claim neutral? Although actions are not always the most sensible, they always have some sensibility to them.
Hyptothetical vigilante: please don't kill chamber or SG. Theyre worth more to us alive than dead; we can't afford to throw away non-mafia while taking 2 kills a day.
You're right- lynching the inspected scum (Azrael) is probably the right play and it might bring some stuff to light. In that case, however, I'd advocate either the vigging or the inspection of armlx and I'm holding off putting my vote back on Azrael to allow time for discussion of that. Taking calls from the floor as to which. If I could guarantee matjoe's safety I'd definitely say "inspect", but under the circumstances we might not have that option.
Vigging one of chamber and SG at this point just seems to be massively premature and I'm starting to get to the point of FOSing the people advocating it. I don't understand this at all. Even vigging one wouldn't be the end; if they show up neutral (which they say they will), we still won't get their real win condition. I don't know what vigging one is meant to gain, besides one more dead person.
@Raf- Its quite different from voting whoever was scum in my game. I knew that based on armlx's reaction when he got back, there was a good chance I'd be voting for one of you guys. I still can't get much of a read on either of you, so I'm going to
unvote Raf, vote Azrael gotta go with the inspected scum.
You're right- lynching the inspected scum (Azrael) is probably the right play and it might bring some stuff to light. In that case, however, I'd advocate either the vigging or the inspection of armlx and I'm holding off putting my vote back on Azrael to allow time for discussion of that. Taking calls from the floor as to which. If I could guarantee matjoe's safety I'd definitely say "inspect", but under the circumstances we might not have that option.
Vigging one of chamber and SG at this point just seems to be massively premature and I'm starting to get to the point of FOSing the people advocating it. I don't understand this at all. Even vigging one wouldn't be the end; if they show up neutral (which they say they will), we still won't get their real win condition. I don't know what vigging one is meant to gain, besides one more dead person.
I very much disagree, RafaelK. Once again, the SorryGuy/chamber situation is one that can ONLY be effectively solved by a vigilante. And I do not regard it as premature. We do not have the option of ignoring this. We can't take the ostrich method of burying our heads in the sand to solve this problem. Either we figure out whether or not SorryGuy and chamber are telling the truth now, or we do so later when we have less means available to us. Already we're pretty darn close if not certain to lose an inspector. When is the time going to be right to address this issue if not now?
Now, maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems to be that the idea that armlx is the daykiller is, though an educated guess, still a guess. The evidence against armlx is, as I see it, the weakest among the three issues.
Thus, I insist to the vigilante that it be SorryGuy targetted this evening.
However, this evening may never come if people don't get online and start voting... C'mon people.
it was cropcircles idea to weed out any possible cult recruits. unvote
Quote from Highroller »
I very much disagree, RafaelK. Once again, the SorryGuy/chamber situation is one that can ONLY be effectively solved by a vigilante.
why? why does this "situation" need fixing?
Either we figure out whether or not SorryGuy and chamber are telling the truth now, or we do so later when we have less means available to us. Already we're pretty darn close if not certain to lose an inspector. When is the time going to be right to address this issue if not now?
it's a non-issue if they don't harm us, and I don't see what significant damage they could or would do to us. Alternately, a vig kill helps the mafia and could be completely unhelpful. I reiterate: are these two or losing a non-mafia more likely to hurt us?
I don't get the reason armlx is suspicious. If he was lying about Hawkeye in order to get him lynched, we'd see hawkeye was bodyguard and armlx would be in trouble. It doesn't make sense for him to have lied.
Alright, so this is the part where I would be voting for Az, but I still want Rhinocero to prove his vote before we close the day. No point chasing recruits if they don't exist.
BTW: Armlx is completely wrong. I both used a night ability and got a PM from Az about it last night. So if a vig wants to act tonight, there's your man.
Much more than Chamber/SorryGuy, that still seems like an incredibly bad idea to me.
Vote: Azrael but this should come first.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't get the reason armlx is suspicious. If he was lying about Hawkeye in order to get him lynched, we'd see hawkeye was bodyguard and armlx would be in trouble. It doesn't make sense for him to have lied.
Except that none of you would know he had lied. We could have quite easily bandwagonned Hawkeye without revealing armlx's result on him, and in fact we were both doing that earlier today before matjoe came out. Go back and look. I would have discovered the lie once Hawkeye died, but that would be night and I could be conveniently killed off in the morning (or armlx may have planned to come out in the morning blaming it all on me, who knows?).
Quote from armlx »
BTW: It was RafK who suggested via PM that I subtley go for Hawkeye with my info......
You had just told me you thought he was Kevin because he had an evil aura and a bloodstained note. From memory, I suggested in reply that we prod at Hawkeye a bit to see what would happen. The point is that your "result" on Hawkeye makes no sense and is probably a lie, not that any of us are scummy for prodding Hawkeye while he was alive.
Axelrod- I hate to throw cold water over someone on my side, but it was night 1 (ie. before the game started) that he watched you, not last night (if what you meant is you got a mod PM on night 1, then shout it out because that would be 100% proof he's lying). Last night was Hawkeye. I watched HR night 1 (as confirmed by HR) and AS last night.
BTW: Armlx is completely wrong. I both used a night ability and got a PM from Az about it last night. So if a vig wants to act tonight, there's your man.
Axelrod- I hate to throw cold water over someone on my side, but it was night 1 (ie. before the game started) that he watched you, not last night (if what you meant is you got a mod PM on night 1, then shout it out because that would be 100% proof he's lying). Last night was Hawkeye. I watched HR night 1 (as confirmed by HR) and AS last night.
Ah. Yes, that could be the problem. In fact, I took no action on the pre-game "No Kill" night. Armlx would be correct there.
So maybe I should apologize to Armlx for that.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Axel: I answered because Raf had already explained. If I had thought about it and realized you were asking armlx specifically, rather than just looking for a general explanation, I probably wouldn't have bothered.
Raf: even if we do get a neutral result on chamber's/SG's, we'll still see the description following it. If it says "neutral: mason" as they claim, it should mean we can believe them. If it says something else, like "traitor," for example, we'd have a pretty good reason not to trust them. Speaking of which, what does your description say? It might give us a hint about how reliable my assumption is.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I don't see how a townie bodyguard would possibly have a creepy aura and bloodsoaked note in his room. I think armlx wanted Hawkeye lynched for some reason, and lied to Raf in order to enlist his help.
Vote: armlx
Az might be scum, but I don't think he's an immediate threat.
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Except that none of you would know he had lied. We could have quite easily bandwagonned Hawkeye without revealing armlx's result on him, and in fact we were both doing that earlier today before matjoe came out. Go back and look. I would have discovered the lie once Hawkeye died, but that would be night and I could be conveniently killed off in the morning (or armlx may have planned to come out in the morning blaming it all on me, who knows?).
you couldn't have bandwagonned him without revealing some role info. you really had no case.
so the town sees this:
you and armlx: hawkeyes mafia! we have evidence!
town: we lynch him. he's not.
Scenario 1:
azrael: rafaelk is dead. he was a townie.
town: *distrusts armlx, especially when he doesn't die*
Scenario 2:
armlx: rafk is responsible!
rafk: no, YOU are.
town: let's kill/ignore/inspect both of them.
neither of these situations seem very good for the mafia, especially on a townie whose abilities are unknown. if armlx actually is mafia with this ability, he's definitely very valuable to the mafia and wouldn't lie to you about a person unless he was willing to risk dying for it.
your entire case seems to hinge on the fact that armlx's stated result on hawkeye is impossible. I don't think it is.
if armlx actually is mafia with this ability, he's definitely very valuable to the mafia and wouldn't lie to you about a person unless he was willing to risk dying for it.
If armlx (or me, in fairness) is mafia, it'd be a serious advantage for the mafia and you're right, not something to risk easily. Watcher is more powerful than mafia than for town anyway, and to get two results a night while we trust each other...
However, my theory is he's the daykiller = Kevin = SK. SKs need an advantage of some kind.
And consider that in the scenario where Hawkeye gets bandwagonned to death and I get killed, armlx has an AWESOME claim- mason to dead confirmed me and able to use my watcher results to confirm himself. That's too good a deal for the SK to pass up trying for.
your entire case seems to hinge on the fact that armlx's stated result on hawkeye is impossible. I don't think it is.
That's nice. Why? Given that you're cleared I'll accept it if you don't want to talk about it for role reasons, but off-hand armlx's result on Hawkeye does look exceedingly unlikely. The standard of proof in mafia is not 100%, there's always the possibility of evil modding (ie. paranoid cops, people who are millers without knowing it, etc), but unless there's some reason to suspect the evil modding is there you got to go with the most likely option.
However, my theory is he's the daykiller = Kevin = SK. SKs need an advantage of some kind.
And consider that in the scenario where Hawkeye gets bandwagonned to death and I get killed, armlx has an AWESOME claim- mason to dead confirmed me and able to use my watcher results to confirm himself. That's too good a deal for the SK to pass up trying for.
If he was Kevin, he definitely wouldn't lie to you in order to lynch hawkeye. He can do it himself.
That's nice. Why? Given that you're cleared I'll accept it if you don't want to talk about it for role reasons, but off-hand armlx's result on Hawkeye does look exceedingly unlikely. The standard of proof in mafia is not 100%, there's always the possibility of evil modding (ie. paranoid cops, people who are millers without knowing it, etc), but unless there's some reason to suspect the evil modding is there you got to go with the most likely option.
Just looking at hawkeye's role vs. what armlx says, I'd give it a 65-75% chance of it being untrue. However, I can't think of a reasonable way for armlx to be bad, and that takes precedence in my mind. That's why I am against killing him.
so now we have raf pointing at armlx and armlx saying it was raf's idea to go after hawkeye. we have people saying we should vig sorryguy and some saying we should vig chamber and some saying we shouldn't vig either. and a cop investigation that says the mod is scum. WTF
Now I did get definite results on Az and AS. It gave me the flavor, and then the exact alignment in parentheses. Althought it did mention that he changed his face.
Here, we have no gray area. Matjoeman knows for damn certain that Azrael is mafia because he got the specific alignments for each character. Thus, either Azrael is mafia, or Matjoeman is lying, and I think we're all willing to place bets on the former because Matjoeman nearly died today.
Therefore, I advocate we postpone the armlx case until tomorrow. The validity of the argument seems to alternatively strengthen and weaken, and I think it's always best to lynch the person we know to be mafia and save further debate until tomorrow.
One more thing:
Quote from RafaelK »
However, my theory is he's the daykiller = Kevin = SK. SKs need an advantage of some kind.
I think today has proven that the daykiller might not be Kevin after all, given that Kevin doesn't actually use ninja weapons.
Or, we may have two one-time day killers. Or one multiple (Kevin) and one one-shot day killer. I don't think it's proven, but it is unlikely that the daykiller is Kevin.
I now agree any thought about Armlx needs to put put off until tomorrow while we lynch the scum who has actually been identified.
And please people, no unnecesasary vigging in the night. There is no rush that I can see.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@AS: Maybe they claimed neutral so the town couldn't inspect them via traditional cop? Of course, they couldn't know MJM could find the exact aligment when they claimed. So I still support the vig-kill on either of them.
I'm just geussing here, but I think he meant something like a traditional cop only gets town and not town. So me and sorryguy would apear in the not town group as both neutral and mafia.
I think our time would be better spent vigging one of Chamber or Sorryguy and having MJM investigate me. We know for a fact SG and Chamber are not town and we will have to kill them sometime. I would rather have 1 dead now so that if we can't vig either we don't make a mafia member when we lynch one.
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What do you mean, what? A cop isn't going to waste an investigation on someone who's claimed neutral. The town already knows (or at least, most of them do) not to trust neutrals. And the difference between a pro-town neutral and an anti-town neutral isn't something a traditional cop can distinguish.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Not to mention that Matjoeman would take two nights to give the details of the role past simple alignment, so such an investigation will not be able to be successfully completed in time. To have him investigate SorryGuy/chamber would be useless.
Given how Sorryguy/chamber have progressively grown more suspicious and admitted to keeping back more and more information from the town throughout the day, and the fact that everyone playing in this game has thusfar shown a strong opinion regarding the case, whether it be for or against, vig killing one of them will be a large step in leading us to the mafia. I see no reason why the vig shouldn't take one of them down.
I'm in full support of vigging Sorryguy/Chamber tonight. It seems like it would be a lot better for us to have 1 dead neutral and 1 confirmed townie than 2 neutrals who we don't know what type of harmful abilities they have. Them coming out they way they have already has helped the mafia a lot because their targets for Cop/doc/other important roles are slimmed down because of the mistrust embedded in them. It hasn't helped the town as much because we already have to kill off one non-mafia just to clear the other, and I'm sure that whichever one we clear off is going to be a target for the mafia, because they wouldn't want confirmed townies running around everywhere. It's kind of a lose-lose situation for them...but killing one of them will show if they are mafia, also narrowing down our search if they are not.
In regards to lynching the mod, I'm pretty sure there is some backhanded alignment twisting going on and Az is just screwing with us...I hate to lynch the mod because I have a feeling that he is really supposed to be a kind of balancing agent here to help the town when we'll need it. The day has gone on rather long, and it seems like we will be getting tons of information tonight, and possibly clearing some people depending on who gets killed and if an investigation goes through. So...reluctantly, and regardless of how wrong this turns out to be and how bad it makes me look, Vote: Azreal. (again and again and again)
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I'm just geussing here, but I think he meant something like a traditional cop only gets town and not town. So me and sorryguy would apear in the not town group as both neutral and mafia.
that seems waaay too much to risk. you wouldn't risk two mafia lives on the assumption that the inspector cant distinguish between mafia and neutral.
We know for a fact SG and Chamber are not town and we will have to kill them sometime.
I don't think this is true; at least, my win condition doesn't suggest it.
What do you mean, what? A cop isn't going to waste an investigation on someone who's claimed neutral. The town already knows (or at least, most of them do) not to trust neutrals. And the difference between a pro-town neutral and an anti-town neutral isn't something a traditional cop can distinguish.
we don't have to trust them, but we also dont have to kill them. they may or may not be bad for the town, but they are DEFINITELY bad for the mafia.
vig killing one of them will be a large step in leading us to the mafia.
how? if one comes up neutral:mason we havent gained anything.
I'm not going to tell our cop how to do his job. I do support the vig SG/chamber plan though. I would lean towards SG just simply for the fact that chamber wanted to take the bullet for the team. If they are scum, I find it likely that SG has a more powerful ability.
(AS, by vigging one, we clear the other almost certainly.)
how? if one comes up neutral:mason we havent gained anything.
We'll have a person confirmed on the side of the town, which is very useful to those who are not willing to believe that a person is on the side of the town just because they said so, such as yourself. In addition, we'll be able to analyze the arguments of those for and against the vigging of chamber/SorryGuy and determine from there the best course of action.
Oops. I even glanced back there and didn't realize it was Rhinocero who replaced EM. Time to start up my customary mafia game spreadsheet. Quake in fear scummy-mc-scummingtons. The spreadsheet of doom will be started tomorrow morning.
The man in red sneakers surveys the angry crowd gathering in front of him, with an amused smile on his face.
"Well, that was unexpected. I thought you all to had a little more sense than that. Who was the one who brought us all together in the town hall in the first place? Who was the one who organized you, so we'd have a chance to fight back? Who's the one who has been holding this mob together?
My name is Dwight McCarthy, and I'm a murderer. But I'm not one of them. Some of you have met me before, so you know that already. Some of you are new faces. All of you should be smarter than this.
I'm not surprised Mr. Law and Order over there is saying I'm scum. He's a cop, what do you expect from one of them? Even the ones who aren't on the mobs' payroll can barely see past the ends of their own noses.
Only thing left to say is that if you kill me, you'll be throwing away a powerful ally in this fight. I'll leave the choice up to you."
And with that, he steps down, sits quietly on the floor, and waits.
The man in red sneakers surveys the angry crowd gathering in front of him, with an amused smile on his face.
"Well, that was unexpected. I thought you all to had a little more sense than that. Who was the one who brought us all together in the town hall in the first place? Who was the one who organized you, so we'd have a chance to fight back? Who's the one who has been holding this mob together?
My name is Dwight McCarthy, and I'm a murderer. Some of you have met me before. Some of you are new faces. All of you should be smarter than this.
I'm not surprised Mr. Law and Order over there is saying I'm scum. He's a cop, what do you expect from one of them? Even the ones who aren't on the mobs' payroll can barely see past the ends of their own noses.
Only thing left to say is that if you kill me, you'll be throwing away a powerful ally in this fight. I'll leave the choice up to you."
And with that, he steps down, sits quietly on the floor, and waits.
"Cute trick, McCarthy, but it will do you no good."
While I usually do what LJustus did and say I'm not going to tell the cop what to do, in this instance I think armlx is the clear best choice for inspection (if possible) so I'll make an exception and recommend armlx for inspection (but still the choice of MJM or any other investigator who may exist, of course).
Still against the plan of vigging chamber or SG. I guess there's the risk if we lose the vig we lose the opportunity to do it (unless there's more than 1 vig), but if SG and chamber are anti-town after all it doesn't really matter if they turn mafia when one is lynched since we'd need to lynch them both either way (and if they're anti-town after all, they're probably lying). Either way a vigging doesn't seem the right way to go just now.
Awaiting Rhinocero's vote to prove himself and end this day.
Cat. Pigeons.
Hmm.
Do the resident Sin City experts buy that he can be Dwight?
Do the resident Sin City experts buy that he can be Dwight?
He's certainly trying to pose as Dwight, that's for damn sure. However, Azrael didn't tell us in his last post anything that we didn't already know. He's the man in the red sneakers. He's been on the wanted posters. Matjoeman said the same thing.
Now, I would buy that Azrael, though a murder, is on the side of the town, except that Matjoeman specifically stated he got the alignment of Azrael in addition to flavor.
Quote from Matjoeman »
Now I did get definite results on Az and AS. It gave me the flavor, and then the exact alignment in parentheses. Althought it did mention that he changed his face.
So yes, Azrael could very well be Dwight. However, that's no longer relevant at this point, as someone found him to be anti-town, and no amount of flavor can contradict this.
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All I know is you did not recieve a PM from the mod that night (which was the pre-game night). I asked the mod about whether abilities get back mod-confirm PM's, and he said they do. Therefore, you did not use an ability night one.
I don't think it's no reason. Logically, I should be suspicious of you. How could you possible get the aura of evil and the gnawed-on bloodstained note from Hawkeye, town bodyguard? I haven't had anything that descriptive on either of my watches, I should note (flavour yes, descriptive now).
Logically also, if you are a killer you should know I'll be suspicious of you and kill me at the first available opportunity. Hence I had to come out with this right now. It's a risk; but at the very very least, you must be inspected and frankly I think you should be lynched (or vigged while we lynch Azrael).
DM: gods, how dumb. Without even waiting to hear from armlx you voted me because I once in the past made up an outlandish role? That is supremely messed up. Why not vote for whoever was mafia in the last game you played and be done with it? At least armlx is admitting what he told me (and putting egg on your face). Had he denied it, I would have been 100% sure of my conclusion instead of only 90% sure.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
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I'm guessing you've really only played in standard Mafia games.
Mafia isn't a game about everyone following the most sensible course of action.
Or they're Mafia themselves.
There's really no more point in arguing these matters with you, as it's not going anywhere. It's now become a distraction, and it really seems it's just a matter of difference between our Mafia experiences.
Think of this; if they are mafia, why would they claim neutral? Although actions are not always the most sensible, they always have some sensibility to them.
Hyptothetical vigilante: please don't kill chamber or SG. Theyre worth more to us alive than dead; we can't afford to throw away non-mafia while taking 2 kills a day.
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23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I'm thinking that might be the case as well.
However, I think for today the best course of action would be to stick to what we know. Vote stands on Azrael. I encourage all to do the same.
Vigging one of chamber and SG at this point just seems to be massively premature and I'm starting to get to the point of FOSing the people advocating it. I don't understand this at all. Even vigging one wouldn't be the end; if they show up neutral (which they say they will), we still won't get their real win condition. I don't know what vigging one is meant to gain, besides one more dead person.
unvote Raf, vote Azrael gotta go with the inspected scum.
I very much disagree, RafaelK. Once again, the SorryGuy/chamber situation is one that can ONLY be effectively solved by a vigilante. And I do not regard it as premature. We do not have the option of ignoring this. We can't take the ostrich method of burying our heads in the sand to solve this problem. Either we figure out whether or not SorryGuy and chamber are telling the truth now, or we do so later when we have less means available to us. Already we're pretty darn close if not certain to lose an inspector. When is the time going to be right to address this issue if not now?
Now, maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems to be that the idea that armlx is the daykiller is, though an educated guess, still a guess. The evidence against armlx is, as I see it, the weakest among the three issues.
Thus, I insist to the vigilante that it be SorryGuy targetted this evening.
However, this evening may never come if people don't get online and start voting... C'mon people.
6 Azrael-Matjoeman, Highroller, LJustus, Armlx, Carrion Pigeons, draygn_mage
2 Armlx-Rafaelk, crippled_fist
1 Aurorasparrow- Aurorasparrow
Aurorasparrow: Why the hell are you still voting yourself?
why? why does this "situation" need fixing?
it's a non-issue if they don't harm us, and I don't see what significant damage they could or would do to us. Alternately, a vig kill helps the mafia and could be completely unhelpful. I reiterate: are these two or losing a non-mafia more likely to hurt us?
I don't get the reason armlx is suspicious. If he was lying about Hawkeye in order to get him lynched, we'd see hawkeye was bodyguard and armlx would be in trouble. It doesn't make sense for him to have lied.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
[The Family]
Much more than Chamber/SorryGuy, that still seems like an incredibly bad idea to me.
Vote: Azrael but this should come first.
Except that none of you would know he had lied. We could have quite easily bandwagonned Hawkeye without revealing armlx's result on him, and in fact we were both doing that earlier today before matjoe came out. Go back and look. I would have discovered the lie once Hawkeye died, but that would be night and I could be conveniently killed off in the morning (or armlx may have planned to come out in the morning blaming it all on me, who knows?).
You had just told me you thought he was Kevin because he had an evil aura and a bloodstained note. From memory, I suggested in reply that we prod at Hawkeye a bit to see what would happen. The point is that your "result" on Hawkeye makes no sense and is probably a lie, not that any of us are scummy for prodding Hawkeye while he was alive.
Axelrod- I hate to throw cold water over someone on my side, but it was night 1 (ie. before the game started) that he watched you, not last night (if what you meant is you got a mod PM on night 1, then shout it out because that would be 100% proof he's lying). Last night was Hawkeye. I watched HR night 1 (as confirmed by HR) and AS last night.
Well we know who we're lynching tomorrow then.
8 Azrael-Matjoeman, Highroller, LJustus, Armlx, Carrion Pigeons, draygn_mage, chamber, Axelrod
2 Armlx-Rafaelk, crippled_fist
Ah. Yes, that could be the problem. In fact, I took no action on the pre-game "No Kill" night. Armlx would be correct there.
So maybe I should apologize to Armlx for that.
Raf: even if we do get a neutral result on chamber's/SG's, we'll still see the description following it. If it says "neutral: mason" as they claim, it should mean we can believe them. If it says something else, like "traitor," for example, we'd have a pretty good reason not to trust them. Speaking of which, what does your description say? It might give us a hint about how reliable my assumption is.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Vote: armlx
Az might be scum, but I don't think he's an immediate threat.
you couldn't have bandwagonned him without revealing some role info. you really had no case.
so the town sees this:
you and armlx: hawkeyes mafia! we have evidence!
town: we lynch him. he's not.
Scenario 1:
azrael: rafaelk is dead. he was a townie.
town: *distrusts armlx, especially when he doesn't die*
Scenario 2:
armlx: rafk is responsible!
rafk: no, YOU are.
town: let's kill/ignore/inspect both of them.
neither of these situations seem very good for the mafia, especially on a townie whose abilities are unknown. if armlx actually is mafia with this ability, he's definitely very valuable to the mafia and wouldn't lie to you about a person unless he was willing to risk dying for it.
your entire case seems to hinge on the fact that armlx's stated result on hawkeye is impossible. I don't think it is.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
If armlx (or me, in fairness) is mafia, it'd be a serious advantage for the mafia and you're right, not something to risk easily. Watcher is more powerful than mafia than for town anyway, and to get two results a night while we trust each other...
However, my theory is he's the daykiller = Kevin = SK. SKs need an advantage of some kind.
And consider that in the scenario where Hawkeye gets bandwagonned to death and I get killed, armlx has an AWESOME claim- mason to dead confirmed me and able to use my watcher results to confirm himself. That's too good a deal for the SK to pass up trying for.
That's nice. Why? Given that you're cleared I'll accept it if you don't want to talk about it for role reasons, but off-hand armlx's result on Hawkeye does look exceedingly unlikely. The standard of proof in mafia is not 100%, there's always the possibility of evil modding (ie. paranoid cops, people who are millers without knowing it, etc), but unless there's some reason to suspect the evil modding is there you got to go with the most likely option.
If he was Kevin, he definitely wouldn't lie to you in order to lynch hawkeye. He can do it himself.
Just looking at hawkeye's role vs. what armlx says, I'd give it a 65-75% chance of it being untrue. However, I can't think of a reasonable way for armlx to be bad, and that takes precedence in my mind. That's why I am against killing him.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
8 Azrael-Matjoeman, Highroller, LJustus, Armlx, Carrion Pigeons, draygn_mage, chamber, Axelrod
3 Armlx-Rafaelk, crippled_fist, jcsuperstar
Ok, here's what I'm understanding here:
Here, we have no gray area. Matjoeman knows for damn certain that Azrael is mafia because he got the specific alignments for each character. Thus, either Azrael is mafia, or Matjoeman is lying, and I think we're all willing to place bets on the former because Matjoeman nearly died today.
Therefore, I advocate we postpone the armlx case until tomorrow. The validity of the argument seems to alternatively strengthen and weaken, and I think it's always best to lynch the person we know to be mafia and save further debate until tomorrow.
One more thing:
I think today has proven that the daykiller might not be Kevin after all, given that Kevin doesn't actually use ninja weapons.
And please people, no unnecesasary vigging in the night. There is no rush that I can see.
What?
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I'm just geussing here, but I think he meant something like a traditional cop only gets town and not town. So me and sorryguy would apear in the not town group as both neutral and mafia.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Given how Sorryguy/chamber have progressively grown more suspicious and admitted to keeping back more and more information from the town throughout the day, and the fact that everyone playing in this game has thusfar shown a strong opinion regarding the case, whether it be for or against, vig killing one of them will be a large step in leading us to the mafia. I see no reason why the vig shouldn't take one of them down.
Vote Tally
8 Azrael-Matjoeman, Highroller, LJustus, Armlx, Carrion Pigeons, draygn_mage, chamber, Axelrod
3 Armlx-Rafaelk, crippled_fist, jcsuperstar
In regards to lynching the mod, I'm pretty sure there is some backhanded alignment twisting going on and Az is just screwing with us...I hate to lynch the mod because I have a feeling that he is really supposed to be a kind of balancing agent here to help the town when we'll need it. The day has gone on rather long, and it seems like we will be getting tons of information tonight, and possibly clearing some people depending on who gets killed and if an investigation goes through. So...reluctantly, and regardless of how wrong this turns out to be and how bad it makes me look, Vote: Azreal. (again and again and again)
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Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
that seems waaay too much to risk. you wouldn't risk two mafia lives on the assumption that the inspector cant distinguish between mafia and neutral.
I don't think this is true; at least, my win condition doesn't suggest it.
we don't have to trust them, but we also dont have to kill them. they may or may not be bad for the town, but they are DEFINITELY bad for the mafia.
how? if one comes up neutral:mason we havent gained anything.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
(AS, by vigging one, we clear the other almost certainly.)
We'll have a person confirmed on the side of the town, which is very useful to those who are not willing to believe that a person is on the side of the town just because they said so, such as yourself. In addition, we'll be able to analyze the arguments of those for and against the vigging of chamber/SorryGuy and determine from there the best course of action.
Vote Tally
9 Azrael-Matjoeman, Highroller, LJustus, Armlx, Carrion Pigeons, draygn_mage, chamber, Axelrod, WellofLostGnomes
3 Armlx-Rafaelk, crippled_fist, jcsuperstar
One more to lynch. I suppose CropCircles is right and we should wait for Rhinocero to vote. However, I would not wait up too long for him.
A slightly less quick check shows that he replaced Einsteinmonkey only 2 days ago.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
"Well, that was unexpected. I thought you all to had a little more sense than that. Who was the one who brought us all together in the town hall in the first place? Who was the one who organized you, so we'd have a chance to fight back? Who's the one who has been holding this mob together?
My name is Dwight McCarthy, and I'm a murderer. But I'm not one of them. Some of you have met me before, so you know that already. Some of you are new faces. All of you should be smarter than this.
I'm not surprised Mr. Law and Order over there is saying I'm scum. He's a cop, what do you expect from one of them? Even the ones who aren't on the mobs' payroll can barely see past the ends of their own noses.
Only thing left to say is that if you kill me, you'll be throwing away a powerful ally in this fight. I'll leave the choice up to you."
And with that, he steps down, sits quietly on the floor, and waits.
"Cute trick, McCarthy, but it will do you no good."
Vote stands.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Still against the plan of vigging chamber or SG. I guess there's the risk if we lose the vig we lose the opportunity to do it (unless there's more than 1 vig), but if SG and chamber are anti-town after all it doesn't really matter if they turn mafia when one is lynched since we'd need to lynch them both either way (and if they're anti-town after all, they're probably lying). Either way a vigging doesn't seem the right way to go just now.
Awaiting Rhinocero's vote to prove himself and end this day.
Cat. Pigeons.
Hmm.
Do the resident Sin City experts buy that he can be Dwight?
He's certainly trying to pose as Dwight, that's for damn sure. However, Azrael didn't tell us in his last post anything that we didn't already know. He's the man in the red sneakers. He's been on the wanted posters. Matjoeman said the same thing.
Now, I would buy that Azrael, though a murder, is on the side of the town, except that Matjoeman specifically stated he got the alignment of Azrael in addition to flavor.
So yes, Azrael could very well be Dwight. However, that's no longer relevant at this point, as someone found him to be anti-town, and no amount of flavor can contradict this.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3