The consensus at this point seems to point toward two small mafias. However, given the possability of multiple powered roles on our side, we may be looking at a far more slanted playing field. Possably each mafia could have as many as 4/5 players, putting the ratio at 1:3 without taking into acount any sk/vigilantes. We should keep in mind that this could have been desighned to be an uphill battle from the start.
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
I think Axelrod would see that 13 townies paired against 2 groups of mafia and a SK, meaning at the worst for the townies a game-over in 5 nights, and if the townies don't lynch well enough, and the SK doesn't kill enough mafia, it's a game over in 7 nights, excluding any possible docs. I'd say it's safe to assume the mafia groups don't know each other.
your math is off. w mafia + 1 SK + 1 lynch = 4 kills a day.
Another thing, since double mafia is only a theory; does anything happen if the mafia outnumber the townies? double seems less and less likely. Still very valid though.
SOS: voting no lynch is wrong, but because its your first game its understandable. whatever, speculation wont help us and it will be clearer tomorrow, so lets drop it for now. Except its all we have to talk about.
There is absolutely no way this game is set up so that. . .
(Mafia #1 + Mafia #2 + SK) > townies
. . . no matter what power roles the town has. If this were the case, the "baddies" would control more votes than the town, and as we all know, the vote and corresponding lynch is the most valuable weapon the town has at its disposal. I don't think the theory is very valid at all.
If we have multiple mafia groups, which I am inclined to believe at this point based on the evidence available, then they are more than likely no more than 3 player in each - probably one "boss", one "middle management", and one "lackey" (like our dead orc). The presence of the orc leads me to believe that we have a Sarumon, uruk-hai, orc mafia group. The other is probably Sauron, nazgul, & something else.
I think we are all in agreement as to Gollum as the SK.
If we have a townie vig that was a little too anxious, I think it bears consideration for that person to come forward and admit that he/she made a mistake in being a little too eager. The argument against that person coming forward is that it gives the mafia more information. This is most likely not true. If the person is a one-shot vig, which is the most common type I have seen, then they are now no more than a vanilla townie. Well, the mafia know that already. The argument for that person coming forward is that it will clear some confusion about the happenings of last night.
Please note: I am not outright asking this person to come forward if they exist. I am saying that the option is there and what I perceive the pros and cons to be in this situation.
I think what aurora means is, what if the total of the two mafia outnumber us, do we still lose then; or only when a single mafia outnumbers town?
I realize what he's saying. And rules-wise, I assume we'd still be alive. But for all intents and purposes, the town will have very little chance of coming out alive if that happens.
That's what Az just said: we more likely than not lose rules-wise of the total mafia > total town, but we likely lose in that situation, if the mafia isn't stupid.
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M1 M2 SK Town
------------------
3 3 1 13
3 2 1 11 - After first night's kills
2 2 1 8 - Assuming one of the lynch or the SK hits a mafia
1 2 1 5 - Assuming again that either lynch or SK hits a mafia
1 1 1 2 - We lose
That doesn't take special roles into account, of course. Still, it's possible (likely ?) that both sides have special roles.
Summary: If there really are two mafia groups, things look very bad - particularly since we've already lost an investigator.
Are there any other possibilities besides either two mafia groups or a dim vigilante ?
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If there is a 3:1 ratio, which is a posibility that should be considered, then at a rate of three kills per night it won't be long before we're out numbered.
...either that or maybe I'm just paranoid.
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
And the thing with that table is, we NEED to hit all our lynches. Any mislynches make the table incorrect.
Not necessarily, the table assumes either a good lynch OR a cross kill during the night. I think that there is a decent chance of this happening on average. It also assumes that the SK will not be affected by a cross-kill. It also assumes no doc or self-protection. (Frodo has Sting - so protection from orcs?)
I am going to FOS aurorasparrow. Something about his posts bugs me – especially this one. I don’t think that it is enough to warrant a vote at this point though.
Whew finally caught up. I agree that there are probably 2 mafia, and 1 sk. It just seems to fit the pattern of kills best. I think that 1 mafia is probably consisting of Sauron, the Witch-King, and an orc (now dead), and the other is Saruman, Worm-tongue, and a cave troll (large blunt object = club). I think Gollum is our sk (death method fits) and the witch-king offed aragorn in the night (again the death method fits). That leaves Sam getting clobbered by the troll. If there are 6 mafia members, its not entirely unlikely that Gollum happened to kill a mafia. I it happened that way, it would be likely that our vig was intelligent enough to refrain from killing night one. Sound ok so far?
Hmmmm... LJustus makes a good point: If one of the kills was performed by a vig, and that vig was a one-shot vig should come forward. Why? Right now, the docter doesn't really have much chance of protection a townie, even less so if there are 2 mafias. If a vig comes forward and claims the kill, we both have a semi-confirmed townie, and clear up this business about 2 mafia. We kill two birds with one stone, so to speak. It doesn't put the docter at risk, but it means he has a higher chance of being able to protect a townie, and if the vig is one shot, this is about the best we can hope for from him.
If the vig is more than one shot, I'm not so sure he should come forward. I think it would still be best so that we can confirm or deny our 2 mafia hypothesis.
Also, what's this Puzzle Factor? I haven't played many games on Salvation, I've only really played at news, so what are you talking about?
Still, we have Azrael in this game, who is just as good as Puzzle (well, besides editing his posts....) IMO. Not having Puzzle or Azrael does not matter though. See, say, World Domination Mafia.
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Albus Dumbledore, Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone
To the well organized mind, death is but the next great adventure.
If it turns out to have been a missfire from a vig that would mean that there would only be one mafia of normal size.
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
Does everyone forget the far greater possibility that there was a mafia with a one-shot kill ability? Rather than getting all string-theory about this lets drop it until tomorrow, because this isn't really getting anywhere.
LJUstus: explain.
one thing we can do: claim if you're in the fellowship or not. No, don't do it now. Just.. it may be a relevant tactic later.
Wouldn't that just give Gollum a rather short check list for his alt win?
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
1 out of 9? and he only gets to kill once a night? it reduces it by half, I guess, so he gets maybe a 50% chance of winning. But his winning doesn't mean we all lose, and Frodo still has protection against Gollum (I'd think).
On the other hand, he WOULD only target fellowship from then on, and thus hurt the town only as opposed to any mafia. I hadn;t thought of that.
One out of seven now, the first night did not bode well for the fellowship...
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
I really don't think that claiming fellowship is a good idea AT ALL. It gives a list of seven (maybe six, boromir MIGHT not be all good, but at LEAST six if not seven) confirmed townies without telling us anything about their roles. On the other hand, those who claim non-fellowship could very well be townie or mafia. That plan could only help the mafia, even if Gollum's dead. That seems like a really bad idea.
@ Armlx- Well, I was trying my hardest to turn up scum that game. I just did too good of a job. Especially the part where I turned up myself.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Wouldn't that just give Gollum a rather short check list for his alt win?
I'm not really sure if I want to know the answer to this or not, but how do you know that Gollum has an alternate win condition? Does the ring exist as a physical presence in the game after all?
Is the mafia win condition to kill us, or to find the ring? I'm sure they'll already know that one way or another, so it should be fine to share that much information, if you know it.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
1 out of 9? and he only gets to kill once a night? it reduces it by half, I guess, so he gets maybe a 50% chance of winning. But his winning doesn't mean we all lose, and Frodo still has protection against Gollum (I'd think).
On the other hand, he WOULD only target fellowship from then on, and thus hurt the town only as opposed to any mafia. I hadn;t thought of that.
In previous setups I've been in, when any one character would win, the rest lose (World Dom, for example).
That really depends on how much you have read the books (im assuming everything is based off of books). I have only read them once, like 5 years ago, so my knowledge is a little rusty. If you have only watched the movies, it would be a good guess that there are some people in the game that you might not know.
Anyway, Something about deadly budda strikes me as odd. Mostly by his comment about the alternate win condition of Gollum. It just seems to me that he has some more knowledge than the rest of the town.
Meh, vote Deadly Budda
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Is it safe to assume that everyone has a well known character and an ability? Where can we start making assumptions.
Well, I believe that Axel said earlier that we had "Basic townie" roles in the game.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Is it safe to assume that everyone has a well known character and an ability? Where can we start making assumptions.
When you assume, you make an ass out of you and mumptions. I don't think we can really make any assumptions on character presence based on obscurity.
@ Pibbly - We've already had Enigma91 looking like Gollum for different reasons. That said, he does seem pretty scummy with that thar post; hoewver, because of previous experience/the possiblity of speculation, I'll just FOS: Deadly Budah.
I'm not really sure if I want to know the answer to this or not, but how do you know that Gollum has an alternate win condition? Does the ring exist as a physical presence in the game after all?
Is the mafia win condition to kill us, or to find the ring? I'm sure they'll already know that one way or another, so it should be fine to share that much information, if you know it.
Quote from Pibbly »
That really depends on how much you have read the books (im assuming everything is based off of books). I have only read them once, like 5 years ago, so my knowledge is a little rusty. If you have only watched the movies, it would be a good guess that there are some people in the game that you might not know.
Anyway, Something about deadly budda strikes me as odd. Mostly by his comment about the alternate win condition of Gollum. It just seems to me that he has some more knowledge than the rest of the town.
Meh, vote Deadly Budda
Maybe because, like you, they haven't read all 5 books? Anyways, all I know is what my paranoia tells me and it tells me this; One, in the books Gollum's motovation is to find the ring and aquire it throgh any means posable. Two, Frodo has the ring. Three, if Gollum were to kill Frodo he would have ample opurtunity to aquire the ring. We can infer from this that it would be flavorable and realistic win condition for Gollum, who is likely our sk/vigellante, to dispose of the ring bearer and take the precious. I have no idea wether or not the ring exists in game or not, but Axel's warrning about the corupting power of the ring makes it seem very likely that it is.
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
Hmm. Well, the pros of claiming would be that scum couldn't sucessfully false claim our power roles: Gandalf, Frodo, etc. From that, we'd be able to confirm 7 townies in a single move, and vastly eliminate a number of our targets. That's assuming of course that all 9 Fellowship members started in the game, which isn't necessarily a given.
Beyond that, we'd have a grey area of non-fellowship characters to sift through, at least 4 in number. If we have only a portion of the Fellowship characters, which is probably the case, we're dealing with a great deal more.
After that, we would get to start trapping the seven mafia/SK. Seeing through the credibility of their claims probably would not be difficult, I'd imagine.
The last benefit of claims is that we might not have too much to lose, with our investigator already out of the way.
The potential drawbacks lead me to want to figure out a bit more about the game before we decide to go ahead with us.
For one, whether the ring is in the game,and what could happen if the mafia get their hands on it.
Second, we might end up losing our doctor. Although you could argue that his usefulness might be somewhat reduced by the lack of investigator, his presence in the game would ensure my and other analysts continued survival for a good while longer.
Lastly, the mafia(s)/SK would be able to take advantage of this massive influx of information more quickly than the town. One of our greatest strengths right now as a town is that the mafia and SK will continue to cross-fire at each other. If we expose the fellowship through our claims, we will no longer have that advantage working for us. They'll be able to sucessfully pick off our confirmed townies while leaving the rest, while at best the town manages to lynch one of them at a time.
In the late game, when there are only a few left, and the benefits of crossfire have diminished, this will be a powerful tool to flush out the rest of them. But in this situation, I'm afraid that claims would turn out to be suicidal for us. The rate of attrition is too high: our best path to victory is to use that to our advantage by actually trying NOT to confirm large swathes of townies at once. The more confirmed townies we have in the open, the more safe targets the mafias will have to hit.
Just like in the books, secrecy and cunning will be the Fellowship's best ally in this war.
Maybe because, like you, they haven't read all 5 books? Anyways, all I know is what my paranoia tells me and it tells me this; One, in the books Gollum's motovation is to find the ring and aquire it throgh any means posable. Two, Frodo has the ring. Three, if Gollum were to kill Frodo he would have ample opurtunity to aquire the ring. We can infer from this that it would be flavorable and realistic win condition for Gollum, who is likely our sk/vigellante, to dispose of the ring bearer and take the precious. I have no idea wether or not the ring exists in game or not, but Axel's warrning about the corupting power of the ring makes it seem very likely that it is.
That sounds like an awful lot of conjecture (and paranoia).
If you were coming up with that off the top of your head, I would have expected you to suggest the possibility first, to talk about it, and ask the town whether they considered it very likely to be true, instead of simply assuming it.
Also, why are you referring to Gollum as a possible vigilante?
I am not gollum
The post budda made does make him seem like he knows something we don't, that may not be the case. so nothing yet
I really don't think that this a two mafia set up, that just puts pressure on the town to play perfectly, something that really can't be assumed, and of course and unlucky lynches and were screwed.
I think this is a Very Ingenious Game setup, in my opinion anyways, by leaving it to us and not telling us what this is being taken from we've been left absolutely clueless as to who is in this game(on the smaller scale anyways)
One last thing is that I'm not to sure we should be pouncing on people for putting up speculation, as in the early parts of the game, especially after losing the cop, it's the only way to create information for the town to work with. Even as suspicious as it may seem it could just be bad speculation or assumptions; and if it's bad we just throw it out and keep working. That is instead of lynching everyone
Ok thats all for now
EWP: @ deadly buddah: paranoia is not always helpful, nor is assuming that the ring is in the game atm.
Especially considering that if it is, then we have two games going at the same time both involving getting an object from the town. So this odd "revelation" from you deserves an fos:deadly buddah
Bad Guy + The One Ring = Game Over man, Game over! I'm sorry but this should be common sense, not conjecture. This is my first mafia so I apologize if I violated the proper etquitte of the kangaro cort via this assumption. Forgive my ignorance but don't sk and vigs play esentialy the same role?
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
Speculation: Possibly if the Ring is around, it's some sort of usable effect that can be stolen on death, but not a win condition? For instance: "Avoid 1 night kill", or "You turn to Mafia", or something else that would be in flavor with it.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
[QUOTE=AxelrodThe Ring remains hidden at present, but its influence can be felt everywhere. Those who control it wield great powers, but at what price?
Let all beware the corrupting power of the Ring.[/quote]
Yep...the ring is here.
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
Bad Guy + The One Ring = Game Over man, Game over! I'm sorry but this should be common sense, not conjecture.
It might be the case, but why would that lead you to believe that Gollum has "an alternate win condition"? If you believed that, it would make more sense for you to believe that his win condition is to track down the ring, period, not that he has an "alternate win condition".
Unless perhaps the mafia has an alternate win condition as well...
Ack! Sorry for not posting sooner, but I've been without internet access for a couple of days, and because I've got exams soon, my posting might be sporadic for a couple of weeks. Anyways, not much to say right now, but I think that this can be easily explained:
Quote from Azrael »
Also, why are you referring to Gollum as a possible vigilante?
In a game I played, probably here, where someone made a similar comment, because they thought that vigilante was a generic term for anyone with a nightkill ability. Anyways, Gollum seems likely as an sk, and Bilbo as sk is just... ridiculous. Shame about losing an inspector so soon, but I doubt that he was the only one, and two mafia groups sounds about right with an sk. Of course, that's probably all been accepted as fact by now, so I'll just leave now and come back later, hopefully with something more to say.
Edit while previewing:
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Bad Guy + The One Ring = Game Over man, Game over! I'm sorry but this should be common sense, not conjecture.
I doubt that, for the sole reason that this is not a specialty game. Otherwise it would be too much like fadeblue's Shaman Mafia, where the mafia seem t be trying to get the talisman. Two nearly identical games would be a problem. I expect that whoever has the ring gets some extra abilities, for example, a scum with the ring might not show up on inspections as scum, or something.
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Ambivalent owner of nan's soul. Proud worshipper of TFE.
Well one would assume that mafia would win if they outnumber the town OR if they get their hands on the ring (well we're not quite sure of the outnumbering situation in our possible 2 mafia setup) Budah may be thinking that Gollum could win if he was one on one with a townie....but this is unlikely. I wonder...FOS: Deadly Budah
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
The ring is definitely here in flavor, but we don't know for sure if any actual character possesses it in the game, or if anyone's win conditions revolve around finding it.
My games have always continued the game if somebody got their alternate win, and I'm pretty sure that was the case in Marvel Superheroes as well (with Dr Doom). Did hvir ever say that World dom would end if Azrael won?
I don't think Deadly budah's conjecture was that far off from what a lot of us were thinking.
am I correct in hearing Budah read the Silmarillion as well? I couldn't get even halfway through it <_<
I want to speculate more on the ring.
First: there is nothing that says the mafia's win condition is NOT to get the ring. But it would be shockingly like Shaman mafia, and there would be problems if Frodo was lynched since it appears exclusively Hobbits can bear the ring without being corrupted. If all hobbits were dead, a big problem would ensue. There would also be three groups gunning for one person. =\ Thus I think the ring is not central to the game, except maybe for Gollum.
Second: Can the bearer be corrupted? What happens if they are?
Third: What if a vig kills Frodo?
Fourth: If Gollum is after the ring, hes not an SK. He's a one-man mafia.
This whole confusion about two-mafia-versus-one is screwing all of our postulation up.
am I correct in hearing Budah read the Silmarillion as well? I couldn't get even halfway through it <_<
This is funny.
A note about leaving clues: Most of the time, I don't think leaving clues is a good idea, and especially not on the first day. When trhe mafia have a gruop of people who could find the clue and share it, but indiviual townies can only find it for themselves, leaving clues potentially disadvantages the town. In addition, leaving clues is often a good mafia tactic, as they can leave clues for multiple roles, meaning when they claim it looks solid, but they don't get caught out claiming an identical roles. On top of all that, you (and you know who you are) have claimed a role that is very easily confirmed. Sigh.
I'm tempted to vote for this person, because it seems to me like the sort of ploy a mafioso would make, but once again it seems like a simple mistake from a beginner.
I don't know what you're talking about, but I assume it's not in the best interests of the town to say it overtly. I assume it's not Enigma or DB; I really doubt that either of them are Gollum, mainly because all of what they've said is easily explainable as conjecture, and because both of them are n00bs. Also, because you seem to be hiding it, and those possibilites are out in the open, I doubt that's it. I'm curious, but if it would hurt the town, please don't say it.
I don't know what you're talking about, but I assume it's not in the best interests of the town to say it overtly. I assume it's not Enigma or DB; I really doubt that either of them are Gollum, mainly because all of what they've said is easily explainable as conjecture, and because both of them are n00bs. Also, because you seem to be hiding it, and those possibilites are out in the open, I doubt that's it. I'm curious, but if it would hurt the town, please don't say it.
A player made a hint as to their role. A fairly obvious and stupid hint. I was berating them.
If the vig is more than one shot, I'm not so sure he should come forward. I think it would still be best so that we can confirm or deny our 2 mafia hypothesis.
I thought this kind of thing was clearly understood to be terrible strategy for the town ?
FOS: god child
Also FOS Enigma91. I'm sorry, but there's no way all of the mafia missed that. But more than that: it was so clumsy and blatant I'm thinking this whole thing's a plan to distract docs and the like into misdirecting their protection.
Of course, according to god child this is likely just a beginner's error...
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I thought this kind of thing was clearly understood to be terrible strategy for the town ?
FOS: god child
Also FOS Enigma91. I'm sorry, but there's no way all of the mafia missed that. But more than that: it was so clumsy and blatant I'm thinking this whole thing's a plan to distract docs and the like into misdirecting their protection.
Of course, according to god child this is likely just a beginner's error...
Once the vig has made the error of a random kill, if that's what happened, then the best thing to do from there is to come clean. I'd like to know whether or not we have 2 mafia groups, and the vig clearly isn't going to be much good as spotting mafia members if they took a stab at random.
Well, since bateleur has revealed it (sort of), I'd like Enigma to explain why the devil he did that.
It doesn't do anything, really. (At least not in this game.)
It's a convenient mechanism for standardising something which happens often: people casting suspicion on one another.
This is useful because when you scan back through the thread you can easily pick out accusations. Mafia threads get pretty long...
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Deadly Budda: SK are on a team on their own, their goal is usually not the same as either the Mafia or the Town. In this game it is suspect that the "SK" (or gollum?) wants to find the ring to win the game. In other games, they might have to kill everyone else.
A vigilante on the other hand is on the Town's Side. They have the same win condition as the town. They often have the ability to kill every turn, but most often they do not want to use their ability every night. This is often because they odds of them hitting a mafia are very slim, if randomly guessed. A Vig should only use his ability to either test invunrability claims, or if they are 100% certain of someone's mafia-ness.
SOS- a finger of suspicion just lets other people know thay you are suspicious of someone. There are a couple of reasons why you would do this. One, if you are already voting for someone else and you dont want to change votes or if you dont think what someone did warrents a vote but is somewhat odd. (oh and on this site, voting has become a taboo thing, probably due to the "no take back" voting style of World Domination game)
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your math is off. w mafia + 1 SK + 1 lynch = 4 kills a day.
Another thing, since double mafia is only a theory; does anything happen if the mafia outnumber the townies? double seems less and less likely. Still very valid though.
SOS: voting no lynch is wrong, but because its your first game its understandable. whatever, speculation wont help us and it will be clearer tomorrow, so lets drop it for now. Except its all we have to talk about.
who hasn't posted yet?
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Yep: we lose.
(Mafia #1 + Mafia #2 + SK) > townies
. . . no matter what power roles the town has. If this were the case, the "baddies" would control more votes than the town, and as we all know, the vote and corresponding lynch is the most valuable weapon the town has at its disposal. I don't think the theory is very valid at all.
If we have multiple mafia groups, which I am inclined to believe at this point based on the evidence available, then they are more than likely no more than 3 player in each - probably one "boss", one "middle management", and one "lackey" (like our dead orc). The presence of the orc leads me to believe that we have a Sarumon, uruk-hai, orc mafia group. The other is probably Sauron, nazgul, & something else.
I think we are all in agreement as to Gollum as the SK.
If we have a townie vig that was a little too anxious, I think it bears consideration for that person to come forward and admit that he/she made a mistake in being a little too eager. The argument against that person coming forward is that it gives the mafia more information. This is most likely not true. If the person is a one-shot vig, which is the most common type I have seen, then they are now no more than a vanilla townie. Well, the mafia know that already. The argument for that person coming forward is that it will clear some confusion about the happenings of last night.
Please note: I am not outright asking this person to come forward if they exist. I am saying that the option is there and what I perceive the pros and cons to be in this situation.
I realize what he's saying. And rules-wise, I assume we'd still be alive. But for all intents and purposes, the town will have very little chance of coming out alive if that happens.
Does it change at all if there's double mafia?
That doesn't take special roles into account, of course. Still, it's possible (likely ?) that both sides have special roles.
Summary: If there really are two mafia groups, things look very bad - particularly since we've already lost an investigator.
Are there any other possibilities besides either two mafia groups or a dim vigilante ?
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
...either that or maybe I'm just paranoid.
And the thing with that table is, we NEED to hit all our lynches. Any mislynches make the table incorrect.
Not necessarily, the table assumes either a good lynch OR a cross kill during the night. I think that there is a decent chance of this happening on average. It also assumes that the SK will not be affected by a cross-kill. It also assumes no doc or self-protection. (Frodo has Sting - so protection from orcs?)
I am going to FOS aurorasparrow. Something about his posts bugs me – especially this one. I don’t think that it is enough to warrant a vote at this point though.
11 townies
2 Mafia 1
3 Mafia 2
1 SK
That more or less gives us tomorrow or the day after as the must lynch scum day if we miss. Oof.
If the vig is more than one shot, I'm not so sure he should come forward. I think it would still be best so that we can confirm or deny our 2 mafia hypothesis.
Also, what's this Puzzle Factor? I haven't played many games on Salvation, I've only really played at news, so what are you talking about?
LJUstus: explain.
one thing we can do: claim if you're in the fellowship or not. No, don't do it now. Just.. it may be a relevant tactic later.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
On the other hand, he WOULD only target fellowship from then on, and thus hurt the town only as opposed to any mafia. I hadn;t thought of that.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I'm not really sure if I want to know the answer to this or not, but how do you know that Gollum has an alternate win condition? Does the ring exist as a physical presence in the game after all?
Is the mafia win condition to kill us, or to find the ring? I'm sure they'll already know that one way or another, so it should be fine to share that much information, if you know it.
In previous setups I've been in, when any one character would win, the rest lose (World Dom, for example).
Anyway, Something about deadly budda strikes me as odd. Mostly by his comment about the alternate win condition of Gollum. It just seems to me that he has some more knowledge than the rest of the town.
Meh, vote Deadly Budda
Well, I believe that Axel said earlier that we had "Basic townie" roles in the game.
When you assume, you make an ass out of you and mumptions. I don't think we can really make any assumptions on character presence based on obscurity.
@ Pibbly - We've already had Enigma91 looking like Gollum for different reasons. That said, he does seem pretty scummy with that thar post; hoewver, because of previous experience/the possiblity of speculation, I'll just FOS: Deadly Budah.
Maybe because, like you, they haven't read all 5 books? Anyways, all I know is what my paranoia tells me and it tells me this; One, in the books Gollum's motovation is to find the ring and aquire it throgh any means posable. Two, Frodo has the ring. Three, if Gollum were to kill Frodo he would have ample opurtunity to aquire the ring. We can infer from this that it would be flavorable and realistic win condition for Gollum, who is likely our sk/vigellante, to dispose of the ring bearer and take the precious. I have no idea wether or not the ring exists in game or not, but Axel's warrning about the corupting power of the ring makes it seem very likely that it is.
Beyond that, we'd have a grey area of non-fellowship characters to sift through, at least 4 in number. If we have only a portion of the Fellowship characters, which is probably the case, we're dealing with a great deal more.
After that, we would get to start trapping the seven mafia/SK. Seeing through the credibility of their claims probably would not be difficult, I'd imagine.
The last benefit of claims is that we might not have too much to lose, with our investigator already out of the way.
The potential drawbacks lead me to want to figure out a bit more about the game before we decide to go ahead with us.
For one, whether the ring is in the game,and what could happen if the mafia get their hands on it.
Second, we might end up losing our doctor. Although you could argue that his usefulness might be somewhat reduced by the lack of investigator, his presence in the game would ensure my and other analysts continued survival for a good while longer.
Lastly, the mafia(s)/SK would be able to take advantage of this massive influx of information more quickly than the town. One of our greatest strengths right now as a town is that the mafia and SK will continue to cross-fire at each other. If we expose the fellowship through our claims, we will no longer have that advantage working for us. They'll be able to sucessfully pick off our confirmed townies while leaving the rest, while at best the town manages to lynch one of them at a time.
In the late game, when there are only a few left, and the benefits of crossfire have diminished, this will be a powerful tool to flush out the rest of them. But in this situation, I'm afraid that claims would turn out to be suicidal for us. The rate of attrition is too high: our best path to victory is to use that to our advantage by actually trying NOT to confirm large swathes of townies at once. The more confirmed townies we have in the open, the more safe targets the mafias will have to hit.
Just like in the books, secrecy and cunning will be the Fellowship's best ally in this war.
That sounds like an awful lot of conjecture (and paranoia).
If you were coming up with that off the top of your head, I would have expected you to suggest the possibility first, to talk about it, and ask the town whether they considered it very likely to be true, instead of simply assuming it.
Also, why are you referring to Gollum as a possible vigilante?
Do you have a claim to make?
The post budda made does make him seem like he knows something we don't, that may not be the case. so nothing yet
I really don't think that this a two mafia set up, that just puts pressure on the town to play perfectly, something that really can't be assumed, and of course and unlucky lynches and were screwed.
I think this is a Very Ingenious Game setup, in my opinion anyways, by leaving it to us and not telling us what this is being taken from we've been left absolutely clueless as to who is in this game(on the smaller scale anyways)
One last thing is that I'm not to sure we should be pouncing on people for putting up speculation, as in the early parts of the game, especially after losing the cop, it's the only way to create information for the town to work with. Even as suspicious as it may seem it could just be bad speculation or assumptions; and if it's bad we just throw it out and keep working. That is instead of lynching everyone
Ok thats all for now
EWP: @ deadly buddah: paranoia is not always helpful, nor is assuming that the ring is in the game atm.
Especially considering that if it is, then we have two games going at the same time both involving getting an object from the town. So this odd "revelation" from you deserves an fos:deadly buddah
Let all beware the corrupting power of the Ring.[/quote]
Yep...the ring is here.
It might be the case, but why would that lead you to believe that Gollum has "an alternate win condition"? If you believed that, it would make more sense for you to believe that his win condition is to track down the ring, period, not that he has an "alternate win condition".
Unless perhaps the mafia has an alternate win condition as well...
In a game I played, probably here, where someone made a similar comment, because they thought that vigilante was a generic term for anyone with a nightkill ability. Anyways, Gollum seems likely as an sk, and Bilbo as sk is just... ridiculous. Shame about losing an inspector so soon, but I doubt that he was the only one, and two mafia groups sounds about right with an sk. Of course, that's probably all been accepted as fact by now, so I'll just leave now and come back later, hopefully with something more to say.
Edit while previewing: I doubt that, for the sole reason that this is not a specialty game. Otherwise it would be too much like fadeblue's Shaman Mafia, where the mafia seem t be trying to get the talisman. Two nearly identical games would be a problem. I expect that whoever has the ring gets some extra abilities, for example, a scum with the ring might not show up on inspections as scum, or something.
Proud worshipper of TFE.
The ring is definitely here in flavor, but we don't know for sure if any actual character possesses it in the game, or if anyone's win conditions revolve around finding it.
I don't think Deadly budah's conjecture was that far off from what a lot of us were thinking.
am I correct in hearing Budah read the Silmarillion as well? I couldn't get even halfway through it <_<
I want to speculate more on the ring.
First: there is nothing that says the mafia's win condition is NOT to get the ring. But it would be shockingly like Shaman mafia, and there would be problems if Frodo was lynched since it appears exclusively Hobbits can bear the ring without being corrupted. If all hobbits were dead, a big problem would ensue. There would also be three groups gunning for one person. =\ Thus I think the ring is not central to the game, except maybe for Gollum.
Second: Can the bearer be corrupted? What happens if they are?
Third: What if a vig kills Frodo?
Fourth: If Gollum is after the ring, hes not an SK. He's a one-man mafia.
This whole confusion about two-mafia-versus-one is screwing all of our postulation up.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
A note about leaving clues: Most of the time, I don't think leaving clues is a good idea, and especially not on the first day. When trhe mafia have a gruop of people who could find the clue and share it, but indiviual townies can only find it for themselves, leaving clues potentially disadvantages the town. In addition, leaving clues is often a good mafia tactic, as they can leave clues for multiple roles, meaning when they claim it looks solid, but they don't get caught out claiming an identical roles. On top of all that, you (and you know who you are) have claimed a role that is very easily confirmed. Sigh.
I'm tempted to vote for this person, because it seems to me like the sort of ploy a mafioso would make, but once again it seems like a simple mistake from a beginner.
A player made a hint as to their role. A fairly obvious and stupid hint. I was berating them.
Heh. Yeah, it was pretty blatant.
And yeah, Hvir did state that, to me.
I thought this kind of thing was clearly understood to be terrible strategy for the town ?
FOS: god child
Also FOS Enigma91. I'm sorry, but there's no way all of the mafia missed that. But more than that: it was so clumsy and blatant I'm thinking this whole thing's a plan to distract docs and the like into misdirecting their protection.
Of course, according to god child this is likely just a beginner's error...
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Once the vig has made the error of a random kill, if that's what happened, then the best thing to do from there is to come clean. I'd like to know whether or not we have 2 mafia groups, and the vig clearly isn't going to be much good as spotting mafia members if they took a stab at random.
Well, since bateleur has revealed it (sort of), I'd like Enigma to explain why the devil he did that.
It's a convenient mechanism for standardising something which happens often: people casting suspicion on one another.
This is useful because when you scan back through the thread you can easily pick out accusations. Mafia threads get pretty long...
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
A vigilante on the other hand is on the Town's Side. They have the same win condition as the town. They often have the ability to kill every turn, but most often they do not want to use their ability every night. This is often because they odds of them hitting a mafia are very slim, if randomly guessed. A Vig should only use his ability to either test invunrability claims, or if they are 100% certain of someone's mafia-ness.
SOS- a finger of suspicion just lets other people know thay you are suspicious of someone. There are a couple of reasons why you would do this. One, if you are already voting for someone else and you dont want to change votes or if you dont think what someone did warrents a vote but is somewhat odd. (oh and on this site, voting has become a taboo thing, probably due to the "no take back" voting style of World Domination game)