As we already know, in June, 2013, Modern Masters will be released. Reprinting the best of the Modern format; like a wonderful marriage between Masters Edition and Chronicles (w/o the mistakes Chronicles made).
Now currently, Tarmogoyf is averaging at around $90 U.S. dollars. The big questions is, what do we all speculate the prices will jump/drop by? Has Tarmogoyf already changed since this news has broke? Personally, I like the new art much better; so will the art make a difference in preference?
What about other hopefuls? LEt's specualte that we'll see Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique,Thoughtseize, and Damnation. Let's just say they do get reprinted. What do we think the prices will do? I think the obvious response is at first they will sky rocket, since the demand will still be higher that the supply. But after a couple months, will they be as high as the originals? Or will the reprints bring down the cost of the originals?
I believe the set will temporarily mitigate the rise in Modern prices but will not drive prices down much, as the format is growing in popularity along with the increase in the size of the playerbase.
The real thing to watch is how successful the set is, both from a sales stand point and a PR standpoint. We're already seeing some complaints about devaluation from people invested in the format, however I don't believe this will be enough to dissuade Wizards from treating Modern Masters much like they do Masters Edition in MTGO.
This implies that we will see periodic sets in this vein, but they will not be commonplace, serving mostly to keep prices overall increasing closer to what you'd expect with inflation, as opposed to a Legacy style bubble every time the format experiences a popularity surge.
Now currently, Tarmogoyf is averaging at around $90 U.S. dollars. The big questions is, what do we all speculate the prices will jump/drop by? Has Tarmogoyf already changed since this news has broke? Personally, I like the new art much better; so will the art make a difference in preference?
Sorry i think the old art is better and the flame is also better.
It's hard time to guess price will up/drop. This is the first time. It's depend on quantity of Modern master.
I guess Goyf will drop to 70USD and then rise to 80USD. If more modern competition held by WOTC, the price is higher. I'm not surprise the price will >$100.
Sorry i think the old art is better and the flame is also better.
It's hard time to guess price will up/drop. This is the first time. It's depend on quantity of Modern master.
I guess Goyf will drop to 70USD and then rise to 80USD. If more modern competition held by WOTC, the price is higher. I'm not surprise the price will >$100.
I like the new art coupled with the cool flavor text of the new one way better. Also, I don't like the silly reminder-esque text on the old one.
I think this set will maintain the value rather than pushing it down or pushing it up. With a new Tarmo reprint it will not only be sought after by a lot of MTG players who can't or couldn't get it the first time, it will get into dealers hands more and there could be a supply/demand issue there.
Just because a card could sell for that much doesn't mean it will.
I don't think the price of Tarmogoyf goes above 100 for a while. I think this set will pump enough supply to keep the price at the level it is now, for a while.
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
What do we think the prices will do? I think the obvious response is at first they will sky rocket, since the demand will still be higher that the supply.
I disagree with this statement. Demand is not changing as a direct result of this set being printed -- at least not demand for the cards. Demand for packs will be high, but only because of the cards inside. The people that want the cards now are the same ones that will want them next June, barring an overall increase in the popularity of the format (more on that later). Therefore (with everything else being equal), demand is constant, supply will increase, and prices will be lower. The mere presence of more cards on the market will not directly cause a demand spike.
Now, there is something that can and will cause a demand spike -- at least partially related to the fact that this set is coming out. The biggest thing that would cause prices of Modern cards to skyrocket is greater tournament support:
1. GP support for Modern that WotC has already announced
2. If SCG switches their Day 2's (at least partially) to Modern
3. If LGS start holding more Modern tourneys due to the greater card availability
If (2) and/or (3) happen, that's when you'll see a price spike in Modern cards. (3) will probably happen quickly, and (2) will happen... just a matter of when. It could very well be concurrent with the set release, which will make it appear that the prices are skyrocketing because of the supply increase.
Tournaments will change demand, not the presence of more cards on the market -- but one can certainly lead to the other.
I for one look forward to this set and I hope they do a legacy version of this too sans the reserved list which i abhor
I think the modern masters will drive the prices down some if this is not too terribly limited. Like i said before this may drive the price of goyf down to 20-30 dollars and those other will go down to 15-30. I can also see staples like mutavault and the ilk being reprinted which will drive those prices down some. Who knows?
The price drop will depend on how limited of a "limited release" this set is. A draftable set with real draft strategies (instead of like fliers) will see a huge increase in popularity. If they print this set like a typical set (3 monthish print run, unlimited supply during that time) then I think whatever modern big hitters will plummet in price. On the other hand if "limited print run" means that each store will receive a case of product, then I think wizards will just piss a bunch of people off (first the 5% who had valueable cards drop, then the other 95% of players that thought they could get great cards cheap)
Personally, if I had the choice of drafting M14 or Modern, I would choose modern (even if it costs $20 instead of $15).
2. If SCG switches their Day 2's (at least partially) to Modern
This won't happen for a few more years. Legacy tournaments still draw decent crowds, probably way better than Modern would right now, and Legacy staples are still a cash cow for SCG. Modern needs a few more blocks under its belt and another infusion of staple reprints to become popular enough to displace Legacy.
But it will happen. Modern is the second most popular constructed format on MTGO if you go by the number of daily events that fire. The price spikes for a new Modern card that's discovered are about proportionally equal to what happens when a Legacy card is discovered suggesting about the same demand. And Wizards is pushing Modern hard. With all the GPs, PTQs, and Pro Tours featuring Modern, the format will eventually catch fire and it will make business sense for SCG to change their Day 2s.
But again. It's a few years off.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
The other things to consider, w/ the reprints of classics, is rarity shift & how that will affect prices. Cards like Krosan Grip (if it were to be reprinted) then it may go to common. It would be a powerful common, but this is a greatest hits.
My biggest concern was all the money uncommons I foolishly traded rares to acquire in most cases, things like finks, spell snare, remand etc etc. However path has been reprinted a bunch of times and it retains a good amount of value so maybe my worries are unjustified I don't know yet. It all comes down to how much they print, but to do a GP or whatever in Vegas using sealed product to me translates its not that limited.
I disagree with this statement. Demand is not changing as a direct result of this set being printed -- at least not demand for the cards. Demand for packs will be high, but only because of the cards inside. The people that want the cards now are the same ones that will want them next June, barring an overall increase in the popularity of the format (more on that later). Therefore (with everything else being equal), demand is constant, supply will increase, and prices will be lower. The mere presence of more cards on the market will not directly cause a demand spike
I disagree here, specifically on Tarmagoyf. I don't want one at $100, but I will buy a box of this new set in the hopes of getting one. Increased availability through reprinting it is increasing the demand for this card in my case. I would also speculate that demand for tarmagoyf would increase exponentially if he was priced at $10 vs. $100. This would apply to other cards too, like wasteland, force of will, tutors, and generally overpriced out of print cards. If original duals were $10, everyone would be playing with them (increased demand).
For me, the biggest takeaways from the MM announcement were that:
1) Supply will be limited
2) Cards will be rarity-shifted (the spoiled Goyf is Mythic)
3) Packs will be $7.
These kinds of organic price controls means that they have a lot more leeway to reprint valuable staples. I wouldn't be surprised to see stuff like Aether Vial or Spell Snare at rare and stuff like Clique, Bob, Sword of Fire & Ice, etc. at Mythic.
Given all this, MM probably won't impact prices hardly at all (except in the case of Goyf, which I predict will settle in around $70 by this time next year). The only cards that might take a tumble are cards like Thoughtseize and Damnation, which have effects that just don't fit at Mythic in terms of flavor, balance (keep in mind the set is designed to be drafted), and effect.
I have heard vague rumors of a moustache-dispensing vending machine in a distant laundromat, across the street from a tattoo parlor. However, this information is shaky, and time is of the essence.
1. GP support for Modern that WotC has already announced 2. If SCG switches their Day 2's (at least partially) to Modern
3. If LGS start holding more Modern tourneys due to the greater card availability
SCG isn't giving up on Legacy because that means they have to give up a lot of value in most of their non-standard stock of cards, they aren't going to give that up yet (or really soon IMO) Legacy will hit a price plateau but that doesn't mean they will stop doing Legacy. I mean even if SCG is the only driving force behind Legacy prices (in the future) people will still play the format because they have tournaments that offer up cash prizes at. As long as they are doing major tournaments all the time, there will be demand for Legacy and demand for Legacy cards. I just don't see them dropping a huge chunk of the card pool for singles selling (anything that is pre-8th edition) and switch to a format that has a much smaller card pool, much less predictable pricing (they could reprint every modern staple whenever they feel like it, which keeps prices low, but also very stable when they do start reprinting things). As long as Legacy is a SCG open format it will still draw crowds and people will still have interest in the format.
The only way that LGS start doing more Modern events is if they make it a FNM format. A lot of stores (at least the ones around here) only do tournaments on FNM or if they do another it is usually a weekday draft night. The only time there are alternate days for tournaments is any of the Saturday Wizards sponsored events (like Game Days or PTQs or Prereleases) I would imagine this is very common across the board.
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
I asked Mark Rosewater on his blog about what their goal for Modern Masters was at they seem to be putting out contradictory statements saying on one hand that they want to address price and supply concerns for Modern while on the other hand saying they won't significantly increase the supply or reduce the value of the cards.
aazadan asked: I've read contradictory statements now about Modern Masters. On one hand Wizards is saying that you want to support Modern and reprint cards to make the format affordable but on the other hand there have been statements saying you don't want to destroy the secondary market value of cards and that Modern Masters is a limited run that won't significantly change the number of cards in circulation (which may make the format more expensive, with more people intersted), so.... which is it?
Maro: We are walking a tightrope. We want to make the cards available for new players to get into Modern while not undercutting the players who already have them. It requires striking a perfect balance which is very tricky.
So basically what you can take away from that is their goal is to make the format more popular and they're on the side of maintaining card value over increasing availability.
? I don't see a contradiction at all. All modern cards likely will be reprinted. They just won't do it in a way that will (likely) instantly erase a ton of value. This simultaneously addresses price and supply concerns while not significantly reducing the value of cards. Where's the contradiction? There is no 'side' of maintaining card value vs availability - those aren't primary business concerns, merely the attempt to move to an optimal supply/demand equilibrium resulting in the greatest revenue for the company (where the optimal number of customers, including stores and customers will pay the optimal amount of $ for packs of product). Towards this end, a product must be popular enough that people want to buy it, cheap enough that customers will afford it, and expensive enough to make money on top of costs.
Translation: If you're waiting for goyfs (or whatever) at 10% of current value, it just might never happen. If you're waiting for cheaper goyfs, you'll get them in MM1 in 2013. If you don't get them now, you can likely get them later in MM2, MM3, etc. or whatever name they decide to change it to in the future. All of the cards in modern are meant to be reprinted, this is the difference from legacy. That means goyfs or any other card will likely never attain too high of a value but what the hey, it's modern - you're not in it for the long-term investment
IMHO, the obvious price response to a reprints is instant price lowering, I'm pretty sure that each of the modern staples mentioned by the OP will lower in value in response to a reprint. There is no mythical 'surge in demand' that will outstrip supply that I've seen, it's wishful thinking (somebody give me an example of when this happened?) It would be nice if this were true since I have those cards in question but the smart money is on the downside.
The only time I can think of is the Solemn Simulacrum reprint in M12, which did raise the price of Simulacrum for a short while until the # of M12 ones caught up to the # of people who now needed a Solemn Simulacrum for a deck.
Bottom line: If they print product equal to say, 10 or 20% or current supply (Lets say there are 1 million Future Sight Goyfs and they print 100,000-200,000 new ones, just for the sake of having an example) I could actually see an increase in value. WotC pushing Modern = more Modern tournaments, more people building Modern decks, and potentially more Increased Demand than Increased Supply. They did say that this was going to be a very limited print run.
? I don't see a contradiction at all. All modern cards likely will be reprinted. They just won't do it in a way that will (likely) instantly erase a ton of value. This simultaneously addresses price and supply concerns while not significantly reducing the value of cards. Where's the contradiction? There is no 'side' of maintaining card value vs availability - those aren't primary business concerns, merely the attempt to move to an optimal supply/demand equilibrium resulting in the greatest revenue for the company (where the optimal number of customers, including stores and customers will pay the optimal amount of $ for packs of product). Towards this end, a product must be popular enough that people want to buy it, cheap enough that customers will afford it, and expensive enough to make money on top of costs.
Translation: If you're waiting for goyfs (or whatever) at 10% of current value, it just might never happen. If you're waiting for cheaper goyfs, you'll get them in MM1 in 2013. If you don't get them now, you can likely get them later in MM2, MM3, etc. or whatever name they decide to change it to in the future. All of the cards in modern are meant to be reprinted, this is the difference from legacy. That means goyfs or any other card will likely never attain too high of a value but what the hey, it's modern - you're not in it for the long-term investment
IMHO, the obvious price response to a reprints is instant price lowering, I'm pretty sure that each of the modern staples mentioned by the OP will lower in value in response to a reprint. There is no mythical 'surge in demand' that will outstrip supply that I've seen, it's wishful thinking (somebody give me an example of when this happened?) It would be nice if this were true since I have those cards in question but the smart money is on the downside.
In summation.....Star Trek wins a prolonged naval battle against superior, yet less technologically advanced, numbers, with Picard leading the assault, while Kirk takes your soul by laying out Solo and probably his manservant Chewy as well, before impregnating and ditching your Princess.
Mmm good example. I remembered that after you mentioned it - has it ever happened to large-$ cards though? IMHO the situation is different for higher-$ cards due to a price elasticity dropoff at some pricepoint. Solemn simulacrum was run as a playset in a standard ramp deck I believe but the pricepoint was such that I don't recall any complaints about its price level, as opposed to goyf.
If what you're saying is that wotc is pushing modern => more modern tourneys, I concur 100% with you. More modern tourneys => higher demand for goyf, I concur 100% there as well. 2 months from now, there could be very well be increased demand and price for goyf due to this trend alone. Given the same trend, I just don't see a higher price for goyf with a reprint than without. That's kind of assuming that the number of goyfs bought/traded for per new player drawn to modern (goyfs/player) will be higher than the number of new goyfs opened and sold/traded. I don't see how this will be the case unless the new players to the game have much greater disposable income than existing players.
So - will the price of goyf rise? Maybe, as you said, due to potential growing popularity of the modern format but while I don't doubt the popularity, I have serious doubts about the price. If it is the case that the price of goyf even remains constant, the same price complaints about modern will continue on the forums and it should be quite obvious to wotc's pricing department that there is quite a bit of money left to extract from the modern playerbase. Hence, MM2, with more goyf, b/c why would collectors complain with no pricing decrease And so on and so forth until an equilibrium is reached wherein the company makes the most profit while maintaining the same level of discontent (goyf at $40 = some discontented players, some discontented collectors, about the same # of unhappy customers as before but with a lot more sold packs!)
Translation: If you're waiting for goyfs (or whatever) at 10% of current value, it just might never happen. If you're waiting for cheaper goyfs, you'll get them in MM1 in 2013. If you don't get them now, you can likely get them later in MM2, MM3, etc. or whatever name they decide to change it to in the future. All of the cards in modern are meant to be reprinted, this is the difference from legacy. That means goyfs or any other card will likely never attain too high of a value but what the hey, it's modern - you're not in it for the long-term investment
IMHO, the obvious price response to a reprints is instant price lowering, I'm pretty sure that each of the modern staples mentioned by the OP will lower in value in response to a reprint. There is no mythical 'surge in demand' that will outstrip supply that I've seen, it's wishful thinking (somebody give me an example of when this happened?) It would be nice if this were true since I have those cards in question but the smart money is on the downside.
So in this case, sell off goyfs now and put the money into a mox/moat/something on the reserved list?
I was a little bent that I bought 2 boxes of future sight hoping to get goyf and got Akroma's memorial both times. It was a $20 card, so it was alright, then they reprinted it in 2013 and now it's like $4. This would be my concern with the goyf situation.
If you'd like to maintain value, sure. If you want the card to play with in modern/legacy, well, it's not going to go to 0 or anything drastic like that so I'm sure it's tolerable From the minute they announced the modern format, you should have known and anticipated that all modern-legal cards can and likely will be reprinted in the future. Don't feel too bad about memorial/goyf, if it makes you feel any better, there's always somebody with more modern-legal cards in their collection at risk of losing value
So in this case, sell off goyfs now and put the money into a mox/moat/something on the reserved list?
I was a little bent that I bought 2 boxes of future sight hoping to get goyf and got Akroma's memorial both times. It was a $20 card, so it was alright, then they reprinted it in 2013 and now it's like $4. This would be my concern with the goyf situation.
To be fair, Akroma's Memorial is mostly played by Commander players, and not in any constructed formats, where Goyf is a 4-of in a lot of Tier 1 decks. The scarcity of the Memorial was only thing maintaining its price, given pretty low demand, and after M13 the supply greatly outstripped demand. The demand for Goyf is pretty close to unlimited, but a lot of people can't/won't buy it for the price it's commanding right now, but would snap it up in a heartbeat if it was cheaper.
I believe the set will temporarily mitigate the rise in Modern prices but will not drive prices down much, as the format is growing in popularity along with the increase in the size of the playerbase.
It's actually just near impossible for this to happen. The increase in supply will without a doubt be higher then the increase in demand. When it comes to cards like Spell Snare 7-10$ atm and likely at Uncommon in MM. Around 100 Playsets of the card will be opened on day 1 of the GP alone. In a set that is gonna be packed full of powerful rares, money uncommons and a foil playable in most packs Spell snare and the other money uncommons are going to tank to 2$ or so tops. While it's hard to see the mythics and rares of MM tank in value, it's also hard to see them not lose a significant chunk 25-50%.
This won't happen for a few more years. Legacy tournaments still draw decent crowds, probably way better than Modern would right now, and Legacy staples are still a cash cow for SCG. Modern needs a few more blocks under its belt and another infusion of staple reprints to become popular enough to displace Legacy.
I don't think this is anywhere near based in reality. One it doesn't really matter if Legacy draws "decent" crowds only if Modern would draw bigger crowds. Also to be fair a handful of people at SCG pushed for Modern to become a format, so they want to make the switch to Modern, regardless of if they say so or not. Their actions say they do.
I asked Mark Rosewater on his blog about what their goal for Modern Masters was at they seem to be putting out contradictory statements saying on one hand that they want to address price and supply concerns for Modern while on the other hand saying they won't significantly increase the supply or reduce the value of the cards.
So basically what you can take away from that is their goal is to make the format more popular and they're on the side of maintaining card value over increasing availability.
Nah, dude. Their goal is to make money. They're just pulling the wool over your eyes. What MaRo is saying just is not possible. Their goal is to reprint as many Gofys as possible without the number of people quiting because of the price drop being > then the number of people that start playing modern because of it.
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When you see demand and the playerbase continue to grow over time, and yet the supply of many of the older expensive cards isnt growing to match, eventually you end up with a situation where you have staple cards for a format at around $100. They key with products like this, is to stabilize the prices over time rather than tank them. They dont want to see modern turn into legacy where the costs of decks are so completely out of bounds that most people simply cannot afford to get into the format. There will still be some expensive cards that will be at least some sort of barrier to entry into the format, but having the ability to add bits of supply here and there for the popular cards in the format without influencing other formats directly, is a great way to both support wizards (sales of a popular product), the modern format (helps increase supply so that it can keep up with the growing demand), while also not tanking the price on the cards which would piss off the players who allready paid to get them. Its an important balancing act to play, and we will likely see some amount of price declines in the cards in the near term once the set comes out, and then when the supply increase dissipates after it sells out, prices will stabilize and begin to increase again, especially if the product helps bring more people into the format at the same time.
I expect them to put out MM's sets somewhat regularly, whether once a year or once every other year, to help keep the supply up enough to keep up with demand at the very least. I dont anticipate there being enough supply added to really tank any prices though (uncommons/commons may be another story though, especially when we're talking the high end ones like spell snare, etc.)
I just hope they don't move Bob and Thoughtseize to mythic. NOTHING about them screams or whispers mythic.
Nothing about 'goyf seems mythic either, except the price and playability. Moreover, if they're intending on supporting secondary market prices somewhat, I think they'd have to be mythic. I'd say Bob's almost definitely a mythic. Thoughtseize as a rare is a possibility though.
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Now currently, Tarmogoyf is averaging at around $90 U.S. dollars. The big questions is, what do we all speculate the prices will jump/drop by? Has Tarmogoyf already changed since this news has broke? Personally, I like the new art much better; so will the art make a difference in preference?
What about other hopefuls? LEt's specualte that we'll see Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique,Thoughtseize, and Damnation. Let's just say they do get reprinted. What do we think the prices will do? I think the obvious response is at first they will sky rocket, since the demand will still be higher that the supply. But after a couple months, will they be as high as the originals? Or will the reprints bring down the cost of the originals?
What is everyone's thoughts?
The real thing to watch is how successful the set is, both from a sales stand point and a PR standpoint. We're already seeing some complaints about devaluation from people invested in the format, however I don't believe this will be enough to dissuade Wizards from treating Modern Masters much like they do Masters Edition in MTGO.
This implies that we will see periodic sets in this vein, but they will not be commonplace, serving mostly to keep prices overall increasing closer to what you'd expect with inflation, as opposed to a Legacy style bubble every time the format experiences a popularity surge.
Sorry i think the old art is better and the flame is also better.
It's hard time to guess price will up/drop. This is the first time. It's depend on quantity of Modern master.
I guess Goyf will drop to 70USD and then rise to 80USD. If more modern competition held by WOTC, the price is higher. I'm not surprise the price will >$100.
I like the new art coupled with the cool flavor text of the new one way better. Also, I don't like the silly reminder-esque text on the old one.
I think this set will maintain the value rather than pushing it down or pushing it up. With a new Tarmo reprint it will not only be sought after by a lot of MTG players who can't or couldn't get it the first time, it will get into dealers hands more and there could be a supply/demand issue there.
Just because a card could sell for that much doesn't mean it will.
I don't think the price of Tarmogoyf goes above 100 for a while. I think this set will pump enough supply to keep the price at the level it is now, for a while.
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I disagree with this statement. Demand is not changing as a direct result of this set being printed -- at least not demand for the cards. Demand for packs will be high, but only because of the cards inside. The people that want the cards now are the same ones that will want them next June, barring an overall increase in the popularity of the format (more on that later). Therefore (with everything else being equal), demand is constant, supply will increase, and prices will be lower. The mere presence of more cards on the market will not directly cause a demand spike.
Now, there is something that can and will cause a demand spike -- at least partially related to the fact that this set is coming out. The biggest thing that would cause prices of Modern cards to skyrocket is greater tournament support:
1. GP support for Modern that WotC has already announced
2. If SCG switches their Day 2's (at least partially) to Modern
3. If LGS start holding more Modern tourneys due to the greater card availability
If (2) and/or (3) happen, that's when you'll see a price spike in Modern cards. (3) will probably happen quickly, and (2) will happen... just a matter of when. It could very well be concurrent with the set release, which will make it appear that the prices are skyrocketing because of the supply increase.
Tournaments will change demand, not the presence of more cards on the market -- but one can certainly lead to the other.
I think the modern masters will drive the prices down some if this is not too terribly limited. Like i said before this may drive the price of goyf down to 20-30 dollars and those other will go down to 15-30. I can also see staples like mutavault and the ilk being reprinted which will drive those prices down some. Who knows?
Personally, if I had the choice of drafting M14 or Modern, I would choose modern (even if it costs $20 instead of $15).
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This won't happen for a few more years. Legacy tournaments still draw decent crowds, probably way better than Modern would right now, and Legacy staples are still a cash cow for SCG. Modern needs a few more blocks under its belt and another infusion of staple reprints to become popular enough to displace Legacy.
But it will happen. Modern is the second most popular constructed format on MTGO if you go by the number of daily events that fire. The price spikes for a new Modern card that's discovered are about proportionally equal to what happens when a Legacy card is discovered suggesting about the same demand. And Wizards is pushing Modern hard. With all the GPs, PTQs, and Pro Tours featuring Modern, the format will eventually catch fire and it will make business sense for SCG to change their Day 2s.
But again. It's a few years off.
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I disagree here, specifically on Tarmagoyf. I don't want one at $100, but I will buy a box of this new set in the hopes of getting one. Increased availability through reprinting it is increasing the demand for this card in my case. I would also speculate that demand for tarmagoyf would increase exponentially if he was priced at $10 vs. $100. This would apply to other cards too, like wasteland, force of will, tutors, and generally overpriced out of print cards. If original duals were $10, everyone would be playing with them (increased demand).
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1) Supply will be limited
2) Cards will be rarity-shifted (the spoiled Goyf is Mythic)
3) Packs will be $7.
These kinds of organic price controls means that they have a lot more leeway to reprint valuable staples. I wouldn't be surprised to see stuff like Aether Vial or Spell Snare at rare and stuff like Clique, Bob, Sword of Fire & Ice, etc. at Mythic.
Given all this, MM probably won't impact prices hardly at all (except in the case of Goyf, which I predict will settle in around $70 by this time next year). The only cards that might take a tumble are cards like Thoughtseize and Damnation, which have effects that just don't fit at Mythic in terms of flavor, balance (keep in mind the set is designed to be drafted), and effect.
SCG isn't giving up on Legacy because that means they have to give up a lot of value in most of their non-standard stock of cards, they aren't going to give that up yet (or really soon IMO) Legacy will hit a price plateau but that doesn't mean they will stop doing Legacy. I mean even if SCG is the only driving force behind Legacy prices (in the future) people will still play the format because they have tournaments that offer up cash prizes at. As long as they are doing major tournaments all the time, there will be demand for Legacy and demand for Legacy cards. I just don't see them dropping a huge chunk of the card pool for singles selling (anything that is pre-8th edition) and switch to a format that has a much smaller card pool, much less predictable pricing (they could reprint every modern staple whenever they feel like it, which keeps prices low, but also very stable when they do start reprinting things). As long as Legacy is a SCG open format it will still draw crowds and people will still have interest in the format.
The only way that LGS start doing more Modern events is if they make it a FNM format. A lot of stores (at least the ones around here) only do tournaments on FNM or if they do another it is usually a weekday draft night. The only time there are alternate days for tournaments is any of the Saturday Wizards sponsored events (like Game Days or PTQs or Prereleases) I would imagine this is very common across the board.
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This was the question and answer
http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/34510890878/ive-read-contradictory-statements-now-about-modern#notes
So basically what you can take away from that is their goal is to make the format more popular and they're on the side of maintaining card value over increasing availability.
Translation: If you're waiting for goyfs (or whatever) at 10% of current value, it just might never happen. If you're waiting for cheaper goyfs, you'll get them in MM1 in 2013. If you don't get them now, you can likely get them later in MM2, MM3, etc. or whatever name they decide to change it to in the future. All of the cards in modern are meant to be reprinted, this is the difference from legacy. That means goyfs or any other card will likely never attain too high of a value but what the hey, it's modern - you're not in it for the long-term investment
IMHO, the obvious price response to a reprints is instant price lowering, I'm pretty sure that each of the modern staples mentioned by the OP will lower in value in response to a reprint. There is no mythical 'surge in demand' that will outstrip supply that I've seen, it's wishful thinking (somebody give me an example of when this happened?) It would be nice if this were true since I have those cards in question but the smart money is on the downside.
Bottom line: If they print product equal to say, 10 or 20% or current supply (Lets say there are 1 million Future Sight Goyfs and they print 100,000-200,000 new ones, just for the sake of having an example) I could actually see an increase in value. WotC pushing Modern = more Modern tournaments, more people building Modern decks, and potentially more Increased Demand than Increased Supply. They did say that this was going to be a very limited print run.
If what you're saying is that wotc is pushing modern => more modern tourneys, I concur 100% with you. More modern tourneys => higher demand for goyf, I concur 100% there as well. 2 months from now, there could be very well be increased demand and price for goyf due to this trend alone. Given the same trend, I just don't see a higher price for goyf with a reprint than without. That's kind of assuming that the number of goyfs bought/traded for per new player drawn to modern (goyfs/player) will be higher than the number of new goyfs opened and sold/traded. I don't see how this will be the case unless the new players to the game have much greater disposable income than existing players.
So - will the price of goyf rise? Maybe, as you said, due to potential growing popularity of the modern format but while I don't doubt the popularity, I have serious doubts about the price. If it is the case that the price of goyf even remains constant, the same price complaints about modern will continue on the forums and it should be quite obvious to wotc's pricing department that there is quite a bit of money left to extract from the modern playerbase. Hence, MM2, with more goyf, b/c why would collectors complain with no pricing decrease And so on and so forth until an equilibrium is reached wherein the company makes the most profit while maintaining the same level of discontent (goyf at $40 = some discontented players, some discontented collectors, about the same # of unhappy customers as before but with a lot more sold packs!)
So in this case, sell off goyfs now and put the money into a mox/moat/something on the reserved list?
I was a little bent that I bought 2 boxes of future sight hoping to get goyf and got Akroma's memorial both times. It was a $20 card, so it was alright, then they reprinted it in 2013 and now it's like $4. This would be my concern with the goyf situation.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=486633
To be fair, Akroma's Memorial is mostly played by Commander players, and not in any constructed formats, where Goyf is a 4-of in a lot of Tier 1 decks. The scarcity of the Memorial was only thing maintaining its price, given pretty low demand, and after M13 the supply greatly outstripped demand. The demand for Goyf is pretty close to unlimited, but a lot of people can't/won't buy it for the price it's commanding right now, but would snap it up in a heartbeat if it was cheaper.
It's actually just near impossible for this to happen. The increase in supply will without a doubt be higher then the increase in demand. When it comes to cards like Spell Snare 7-10$ atm and likely at Uncommon in MM. Around 100 Playsets of the card will be opened on day 1 of the GP alone. In a set that is gonna be packed full of powerful rares, money uncommons and a foil playable in most packs Spell snare and the other money uncommons are going to tank to 2$ or so tops. While it's hard to see the mythics and rares of MM tank in value, it's also hard to see them not lose a significant chunk 25-50%.
I don't think this is anywhere near based in reality. One it doesn't really matter if Legacy draws "decent" crowds only if Modern would draw bigger crowds. Also to be fair a handful of people at SCG pushed for Modern to become a format, so they want to make the switch to Modern, regardless of if they say so or not. Their actions say they do.
Nah, dude. Their goal is to make money. They're just pulling the wool over your eyes. What MaRo is saying just is not possible. Their goal is to reprint as many Gofys as possible without the number of people quiting because of the price drop being > then the number of people that start playing modern because of it.
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Calling someone a Commie is flaming and must be stopped, but turning the word Conservative into a loaded pejorative and using it over and over again is perfectly acceptable.
I expect them to put out MM's sets somewhat regularly, whether once a year or once every other year, to help keep the supply up enough to keep up with demand at the very least. I dont anticipate there being enough supply added to really tank any prices though (uncommons/commons may be another story though, especially when we're talking the high end ones like spell snare, etc.)
Nothing about 'goyf seems mythic either, except the price and playability. Moreover, if they're intending on supporting secondary market prices somewhat, I think they'd have to be mythic. I'd say Bob's almost definitely a mythic. Thoughtseize as a rare is a possibility though.