Now let's say all 5 of these are truly the same value in terms of gameplay and will all be as popular as Baneslayer (which they wouldn't be, but still). That gives you 5/15 instead of the 1/15, changing the percentages to a 4.16% chance per booster of getting a card that can trade for a Slayer, and a (theoretical) 149.76% chance of getting one in a box (the extra 49.76% is presumably for a second). That means you are almost guaranteed one of these in a box, raising the value of the set, and more boosters will sell. Add dual lands that will be truly valued and the set will be opened much more.
You did your probability wrong.
assuming you were right on the 4.16% per pack, and that there are 36 packs in a box, the correct method is to do this:
(0.9584^36) = your odds of opening 0 Slayer equivalents = 0.588914281
1-(0.9584^36) = your odds of opening at least one = 0.312, or 31.2%
4.16*36 (what you did) doesn't show you your odds at all.
I find new duals unbelievable. They told us M10 duals would be "around for a while" just before they were spoiled, they'd have to already have slotted them for M11 at that point really.
Oh, my bad. Still, it increases the odds considerably. I will change my post to fix this. (Pardon my bad math, I am only in Al2/Trig in High School)
Also... Why 0.9584..?
because 1 (100%) - 0.0416 (4.16%) = 0.9584 (95.84%) IE you have a 95.84% chance of not getting a slayer equivalent, if you have a 4.16% chance of getting one.
in order to determine the odds of getting at least one Slayer you first determine the odds of getting zero slayers and subtract that from 100% (which is the highest percentage value you can hit -- 141% per box would mean EVERY box was guaranteed to have at least on Slayer card.)
its a bit counterintuitive initially, but probability can be a blast once you figure it out
Edit: HAh, here I am correcting your probability mistake, and I made a simple subtraction mistake. it should be 0.412, not 0.312 (so 41.2%)
because 1 (100%) - 0.0416 (4.16%) = 0.9584 (95.84%) IE you have a 95.84% chance of not getting a slayer equivalent, if you have a 4.16% chance of getting one.
in order to determine the odds of getting at least one Slayer you first determine the odds of getting zero slayers and subtract that from 100% (which is the highest percentage value you can hit -- 141% per box would mean EVERY box was guaranteed to have at least on Slayer card.)
its a bit counterintuitive initially, but probability can be a blast once you figure it out
Edit: HAh, here I am correcting your probability mistake, and I made a simple subtraction mistake. it should be 0.412, not 0.312 (so 41.2%)
Thank you very much for that fine lesson!
lol It's sad how I learn more math from Magic and Magic players than I do from math class.
EDIT: Just to add real content to the post:
I think too many people are thinking of cards that cost 5, whereas these new 'Baneslayers' could easily be 4-6CMC. Red and green would have 4CMC, white would have 5, and blue and black would have 6CMC.
The sphinx should probably have vigilance, not shroud.
Anyway, I don't think its THAT bad of an idea.... assuming they do the bad idea of reprinting baneslayer anyway.....
As much as you made those "for a joke" I think they are all reasonable cards, and it would certainly be nice for it to be a cycle, rather than a one of.
I think too many people are thinking of cards that cost 5, whereas these new 'Baneslayers' could easily be 4-6CMC. Red and green would have 4CMC, white would have 5, and blue and black would have 6CMC.
Aye. this is correct. the problem being that only two of the cycle are GOOD outside of corner cases, and only one is ridiculously over its mana-budget.
and I have no doubt that WotC considered it a cycle at the time.
I'm actually not sure what to do for a green Baneslayer. Afterall, Terra Stomper is a ☺☺☺☺ing 8/8 for 1 more mana and is considered totally unplayable. It might be overpowered, but:
Colossal Wurm 3GG
Vigilance, Protection from Sphinxes and Angels
Colossal Wurm can't be the target of spells or abilities your opponents control.
Colossal Wurm can't be blocked by creatures with lower power.
5/5
What bothers me most about this discussion is all the complaining about prices, and that the new baneslayers will be 50+ and the old one will stay the same. DEMAND is what has baneslayer 50+ and when the supply of M11 pushes new baneslayers into players hands the prices WILL drop, my guess is to around 20-30 bucks. All I know is that there will be creatures AKIN to baneslayers in the five colors, but I am still confused about what he meant about better lands.
I find new duals unbelievable. They told us M10 duals would be "around for a while" just before they were spoiled, they'd have to already have slotted them for M11 at that point really.
I agree, M10 duals are here for the considerable future. The question is, what are the odds M11 will run 10 rare lands and include enemy colors. Very low due to the set size I would think. So M10 duals in M11 are almost a certainty.
As for Baneslayer variants, this would be a very good idea if they want to move boxes so fast the vacuum created in their wake would collapse your LGS.
I am still confused about what he meant about better lands.
Well they could errata the cycle, make it something like:
Glacial Fortress
Land - Plains Island
Glacial Fortress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a basic Island or basic Plains.
Add or to your mana pool.
FYI: I do not expect this to happen. This is just one way they could make the lands more powerful without printing new lands.
EDIT: Also, I do not think the card is balanced. Just a random idea off the top of my head.
Well they could errata the cycle, make it something like:
Glacial Fortress
Land - Plains Island
Glacial Fortress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a basic Island or basic Plains.
Add or to your mana pool.
FYI: I do not expect this to happen. This is just one way they could make the lands more powerful without printing new lands.
EDIT: Also, I do not think the card is balanced. Just a random idea off the top of my head.
I would love for wizards to make something like that as another budget option for legacy decks. It doesn't seem too unbalanced except that duals with fetch's in standard would be way to good.
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Legacy - Cat Sligh:symr::symg::symw:
Modern - Green & Taxes:symw::symg:
Standard - Illusions:symu::symb:
Wizards has said that printing Baneslayer Angel was a mistake; they didn't intend for it to be as good as it was (probably something like what happened with skullclamp, but to a lesser degree). Therefore it is very unlikely that it will be reprinted, and even MORE unlikely that they will print a cycle of obviously unbalanced cards.
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I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity and boycotting overpriced singles. Sig this to join the cause for a more affordable Magic the Gathering.
It'd be a tough balancing act, but if they did go with this, I'd hope that they'd make them similar in flavour as well as being similar in power level.
For example, all 4 of the new ones should have protection from a popular/powerful/heavily supported enemy creature type, but not an actual colour. Yes, because removal isn't perfectly saturated throughout the sets/colours/pie this might enhance the difficulty in balancing them, but if all else fails they can just go the Akroma route and keep adding to the laundry list of abilities.
I kid, I kid, I don't hate on BSA, I love the one I was lucky enough to crack, but as little as I want to see WOTC further their current trend of packing all the really batsh...enanigans loco cards into mythic, if they're going to have one there and even repeat it, might as well go for the [strike]dollars[/strike] gold, and I guess pray that somehow they all end up as efficient enough checks and balances to keep them all similarly costed, and preferably a little more within reach of the average player. (yes, I get that magic is an expensive hobby, but Jace 2.0 and BSA levels of cost are starting to take this to a new level)
What bothers me most about this discussion is all the complaining about prices, and that the new baneslayers will be 50+ and the old one will stay the same. DEMAND is what has baneslayer 50+ and when the supply of M11 pushes new baneslayers into players hands the prices WILL drop, my guess is to around 20-30 bucks.
I'm not so sure. If they printed 4 new "BS_"'s of similar utility and power level, perhaps we'd see a dramatic shift, but I have doubts that even doubling the supply would put a terribly massive dent in demand, simply because much of a downward trend would make them more attractive to players that couldn't justify X price point, but X-$5 or 10 might be more doable, which leads to them being bought up by that segment, which drives up the price again, etc. I'm not entirely disagreeing with you, I just think they'd hit a stabilizing point closer to their current value than to one half that even with increased supply.
Also remember that from what we've seen/heard, Magic has seen a hefty increase in popularity, and if they come back in M11, that also means they'll remain in Standard for another year. Sure, players who already have their playsets won't be clamoring for more necessarily, but it's hard to say if the increased supply will really come anywhere near matching the demand for older players who'd like them, let alone the new players who might start glancing at standard tournament play.
Wizards has said that printing Baneslayer Angel was a mistake; they didn't intend for it to be as good as it was (probably something like what happened with skullclamp, but to a lesser degree). Therefore it is very unlikely that it will be reprinted, and even MORE unlikely that they will print a cycle of obviously unbalanced cards.
Do you have a link where they said that? I'm not doubting you. I believe you. I'd just like to see in their own words where someone admits "hey, maybe we might've been doing a little too much JD the week she slipped into production".
I don't think they have. Does anyone have a link to prove me wrong?
They haven't officially, but Baneslayer will not be back in M11. Quote me on this.
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I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity and boycotting overpriced singles. Sig this to join the cause for a more affordable Magic the Gathering.
Im just looking for some constructive critiscism for my deck. I've been wanting to get into competetive play lately so i need help figuring out if my deck is good enough to play at FNM.
Anyway, I don't think its THAT bad of an idea.... assuming they do the bad idea of reprinting baneslayer anyway.....
You did your probability wrong.
assuming you were right on the 4.16% per pack, and that there are 36 packs in a box, the correct method is to do this:
(0.9584^36) = your odds of opening 0 Slayer equivalents = 0.588914281
1-(0.9584^36) = your odds of opening at least one = 0.312, or 31.2%
4.16*36 (what you did) doesn't show you your odds at all.
Archelder (If he keeps the Shroud, if it's Vigilance he'd be #2 with Baneslayer #1 imo.)
Baneslayer
Groundspitter
Deathdealer
Worldburner
Oh, my bad. Still, it increases the odds considerably. I will change my post to fix this. (Pardon my bad math, I am only in Al2/Trig in High School)
Also... Why 0.9584..?
Modern - Green & Taxes:symw::symg:
Standard - Illusions:symu::symb:
because 1 (100%) - 0.0416 (4.16%) = 0.9584 (95.84%) IE you have a 95.84% chance of not getting a slayer equivalent, if you have a 4.16% chance of getting one.
in order to determine the odds of getting at least one Slayer you first determine the odds of getting zero slayers and subtract that from 100% (which is the highest percentage value you can hit -- 141% per box would mean EVERY box was guaranteed to have at least on Slayer card.)
its a bit counterintuitive initially, but probability can be a blast once you figure it out
Edit: HAh, here I am correcting your probability mistake, and I made a simple subtraction mistake. it should be 0.412, not 0.312 (so 41.2%)
Thank you very much for that fine lesson!
lol It's sad how I learn more math from Magic and Magic players than I do from math class.
EDIT: Just to add real content to the post:
I think too many people are thinking of cards that cost 5, whereas these new 'Baneslayers' could easily be 4-6CMC. Red and green would have 4CMC, white would have 5, and blue and black would have 6CMC.
As much as you made those "for a joke" I think they are all reasonable cards, and it would certainly be nice for it to be a cycle, rather than a one of.
Then there already was a cycle in M10
http://www.magiccards.info/query?q=r%3Amythic+t%3A%22creature%22+e%3Am10%2Fen&v=card&s=cname
Except cycles have cards that do similar things. That's why there a cycle.
Modern - Green & Taxes:symw::symg:
Standard - Illusions:symu::symb:
Aye. this is correct. the problem being that only two of the cycle are GOOD outside of corner cases, and only one is ridiculously over its mana-budget.
and I have no doubt that WotC considered it a cycle at the time.
Colossal Wurm 3GG
Vigilance, Protection from Sphinxes and Angels
Colossal Wurm can't be the target of spells or abilities your opponents control.
Colossal Wurm can't be blocked by creatures with lower power.
5/5
I agree, M10 duals are here for the considerable future. The question is, what are the odds M11 will run 10 rare lands and include enemy colors. Very low due to the set size I would think. So M10 duals in M11 are almost a certainty.
As for Baneslayer variants, this would be a very good idea if they want to move boxes so fast the vacuum created in their wake would collapse your LGS.
Well they could errata the cycle, make it something like:
Glacial Fortress
Land - Plains Island
Glacial Fortress enters the battlefield tapped unless you control a basic Island or basic Plains.
Add or to your mana pool.
FYI: I do not expect this to happen. This is just one way they could make the lands more powerful without printing new lands.
EDIT: Also, I do not think the card is balanced. Just a random idea off the top of my head.
I would love for wizards to make something like that as another budget option for legacy decks. It doesn't seem too unbalanced except that duals with fetch's in standard would be way to good.
Modern - Green & Taxes:symw::symg:
Standard - Illusions:symu::symb:
They had every painland printed.
I hope that in M11, we see enemy colored lands like the ones from M10. I think it would be pretty slick at least.
DCI Level 1 Judge
Knight of the Reliquary is like the iPhone of magic. It does everything.
Currently Playing (MTGO):
Koros
Open the Vaults
White Weenie (RoE Junky WW)
Currently Playing (Physical)
Time Sieve
For example, all 4 of the new ones should have protection from a popular/powerful/heavily supported enemy creature type, but not an actual colour. Yes, because removal isn't perfectly saturated throughout the sets/colours/pie this might enhance the difficulty in balancing them, but if all else fails they can just go the Akroma route and keep adding to the laundry list of abilities.
I kid, I kid, I don't hate on BSA, I love the one I was lucky enough to crack, but as little as I want to see WOTC further their current trend of packing all the really batsh...enanigans loco cards into mythic, if they're going to have one there and even repeat it, might as well go for the [strike]dollars[/strike] gold, and I guess pray that somehow they all end up as efficient enough checks and balances to keep them all similarly costed, and preferably a little more within reach of the average player. (yes, I get that magic is an expensive hobby, but Jace 2.0 and BSA levels of cost are starting to take this to a new level)
I'm not so sure. If they printed 4 new "BS_"'s of similar utility and power level, perhaps we'd see a dramatic shift, but I have doubts that even doubling the supply would put a terribly massive dent in demand, simply because much of a downward trend would make them more attractive to players that couldn't justify X price point, but X-$5 or 10 might be more doable, which leads to them being bought up by that segment, which drives up the price again, etc. I'm not entirely disagreeing with you, I just think they'd hit a stabilizing point closer to their current value than to one half that even with increased supply.
Also remember that from what we've seen/heard, Magic has seen a hefty increase in popularity, and if they come back in M11, that also means they'll remain in Standard for another year. Sure, players who already have their playsets won't be clamoring for more necessarily, but it's hard to say if the increased supply will really come anywhere near matching the demand for older players who'd like them, let alone the new players who might start glancing at standard tournament play.
Edit part deux:
Do you have a link where they said that? I'm not doubting you. I believe you. I'd just like to see in their own words where someone admits "hey, maybe we might've been doing a little too much JD the week she slipped into production".
WCommander EeshaBDrana, Kalastria BloodchiefBGGlissa, the TraitorBWVish Kal, Blood ArbiterRUNin, the Pain Artist
UGEdric, Spymaster of TrestWRBasandra, Battle SeraphBGWDoran, the Siege TowerBGWGhave, Guru of Spores
RGWUril, the MiststalkerGUBThe MimeoplasmUWGRafiq of the ManyWUBRGSliver Overlord
Malakir Bloodwitch.
Thanks to DNC @ Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sig.
Casual
Midblight
I don't think they have. Does anyone have a link to prove me wrong?
They haven't officially, but Baneslayer will not be back in M11. Quote me on this.
Knight of the Reliquary is like the iPhone of magic. It does everything.
Currently Playing (MTGO):
Koros
Open the Vaults
White Weenie (RoE Junky WW)
Currently Playing (Physical)
Time Sieve
ppl get so upset their $50 card got blown up by a 20 cent common..... kinda like how they get really sad when JTMS dies to the hexmage.
i think new BSA should be like this
Evil-Smashing Manticore 3GG
creature - manticore
flying, trample, shroud
1G: regenerate ~.
protection from sphinxes and demons.
5/5
hey look now green is the most powerful color in t2!
BSkithiryx, the Blight DragonB
GThrun, the Last TrollG
RGWRith, the AwakenerWGR
UMemnarchU
GBGlissa, the TraitorBG
Standard Decks:
RKuldotha RebirthR
WUControlUW
BMidrangeB
Extended:
WUBEsper GlazeBUW
P.S. I love your sig Lokrium
Thanks to Sgt. Chubbz!
Standard
RRDWR
RG Valakut Titan Ramp GR