If you're saying you get the 2x Emissary + something else turn 2 draw about 25% of the time then I gotta say that I'm pretty excited about that.
According to this little chart I'm looking at, you have an 8.2% chance of drawing 2x BTE on the play by T2 and a 10.3% chance on the draw. So, something like that should happen in 1 out of every 10 games or so.
According to this little chart I'm looking at, you have an 8.2% chance of drawing 2x BTE on the play by T2 and a 10.3% chance on the draw. So, something like that should happen in 1 out of every 10 games or so.
Are we considering the builds with LM and BTE the 'sligh' versions? Should we begin a thread for non BTE builds?
Depending on the prevalence of sweepers in the meta one will certainly be stronger than the other.
If you're saying you get the 2x Emissary + something else turn 2 draw about 25% of the time then I gotta say that I'm pretty excited about that.
Yeah I do mean emmisary thanks.
According to this little chart I'm looking at, you have an 8.2% chance of drawing 2x BTE on the play by T2 and a 10.3% chance on the draw. So, something like that should happen in 1 out of every 10 games or so.
Well... I guess it's just variance. Course by those same charts mana screw shouldn't happen.
So Who's feeling lucky, I guess. but is nice to know that 1 in 10 games is whats expected. Knowing if I'm above average is cool.
Re: # of red sources for Ash Zealot. With 19 sources on the play, we have:
Pr(2 reds on turn 2) = 1 - Pr(0 or 1 reds on turn 2) - Pr(2 Rootbound Crags) = 1 - [(19,0)(41,8)+(19,1)(41,7)]/(60,8) - (4,2)(41,6)/(60,8) = 78.52%.
Thus, with 19 sources and being on the play, there's a 78.52% chance that you'll cast a turn-2 Ash Zealot. Meh, that's not high enough for my liking, but to each his own.
I have good news for those of you who want to run Wolfir Silverheart in these lists but do not want to run the Guildgates.
For a T2 Flinthoof Boar in this deck, optimally you'd like 11 G sources. What about Silverheart you ask? Well, for 2 Silverheart, optimally you'd like to run 13. So the question is, how can I provide for Silverheart without tampering with the R sources in my list for Zealot.
Well, I was just looking through my deck lists on MODO and came across this janky Descendant's Path list that focused on Warriors. It reminded me that Ash Zealot and Wolfir Silverheart share the same warrior typing. I think Cavern of souls is the answer.
So, assuming you're not pulling off the Garden Temple shenanigans to cater to Boros Reckoner, a mana base such as this..
..would allow you to hit the important stuff on curve rather comfortably while also giving you a valuable tool versus control. Amazingly enough, if you do decide to swap out the 3 Forest with 3 Temple Garden here, you can play Ash Zealot, Boros Reckoner and Wolfir Silverheart all in the same deck and expect to hit them on curve consistently. Pretty sweet.
Re: # of red sources for Ash Zealot. With 19 sources on the play, we have:
Pr(2 reds on turn 2) = 1 - Pr(0 or 1 reds on turn 2) - Pr(2 Rootbound Crags) = 1 - [(19,0)(41,8)+(19,1)(41,7)]/(60,8) - (4,2)(41,6)/(60,8) = 78.52%.
Thus, with 19 sources and being on the play, there's a 78.52% chance that you'll cast a turn-2 Ash Zealot. Meh, that's not high enough for my liking, but to each his own.
Are you sure this is correct? I could have sworn it was closer to 88% with 19 R sources.
redthirst is redthirst, fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse. He was the leader of the Fires of Salvation, the only clan I'm aware of to get modded off the forums so hard they made their own forums.
Degenerate? Sure. Loudmouth? You bet. Law abiding? No ****ing way.
Yeah, it's correct. The numbers are outrageous to get high percentages of occurrences. I don't know how you're optimizing, but 11 green sources will give you a green on turn two about 82% of the time, I guess that's pretty good, but double-green by turn five is 75%.
This doesn't mean you're going to hit your drops (that depends on number of lands), but you'll at least have single, and double green respectively.
The bigger Gruul decks can use Borderland Ranger to smooth out their mana for Silverheart. Compute the math for 2 forest successes by turn 5 (a). The compute the successes of 1 forest success by 4(b) and the chance of Ranger by turn 4 (c). Then the successes for silverheart are success= a + (b*c). Express all probabilities as a rational number where 1 = 100% when doing this calculation.
The bigger Gruul decks can use Borderland Ranger to smooth out their mana for Silverheart. Compute the math for 2 forest successes by turn 5 (a). The compute the successes of 1 forest success by 4(b) and the chance of Ranger by turn 4 (c). Then the successes for silverheart are success= a + (b*c). Express all probabilities as a rational number where 1 = 100% when doing this calculation.
What are you trying to compute here? Pr(GG for Silverheart) or Pr(casting Silverheart) or Pr(5 mana on turn 5)? Note that Pr(casting Silverheart) = Pr(GG,5mana).
GG on turn 5 is not strictly dependant on drawing two forest sources. If you draw one G and have 3 mana and have Borderland Ranger before turn 5 you can cast him and you may search your library for a basic land card, reveal it, and put it into your hand. Obviously that basic land can be a forest.
Yeah, it's correct. The numbers are outrageous to get high percentages of occurrences. I don't know how you're optimizing, but 11 green sources will give you a green on turn two about 82% of the time, I guess that's pretty good, but double-green by turn five is 75%.
This doesn't mean you're going to hit your drops (that depends on number of lands), but you'll at least have single, and double green respectively.
My mistake, I messed up when inputting the numbers into this nifty hypergeometric calculator.
Still, I'm not opposed to around an 80% success rate here. On the draw T2 G is around 88% with T5 GG being around 80% as well.
I do now realize less than 20 R sources for Zealot is a bad idea though.
80% success is decent; I shoot for 90%, but the numbers that get spit out are so horrible (24 red sources for Ash Zealot on the play, like 22 or something on the draw)... I've been playing Br zombies lately, and I need 12 green sources just to get Dreg Manglers online in a timely fashion. I'm very picky with my manabases. I'm so fascinated with the new aggro decks that can pop up, but with RR for Zealot, she just isn't playable unless the deck is HEAVY red, splashing color X.
80% success is decent; I shoot for 90%, but the numbers that get spit out are so horrible (24 red sources for Ash Zealot on the play, like 22 or something on the draw)... I've been playing Br zombies lately, and I need 12 green sources just to get Dreg Manglers online in a timely fashion. I'm very picky with my manabases. I'm so fascinated with the new aggro decks that can pop up, but with RR for Zealot, she just isn't playable unless the deck is HEAVY red, splashing color X.
I hear you, in longer tournaments an increased failure rate of 10% will indeed creep up on you. So, yeah we might be getting a bit too greedy here by just trying to skate by with the bare minimum. I still think for this specific deck at least, Cavern of Souls can go a long way, as it caters to the only two creatures with double colors in their costs.
Try explaining this to the people trying to shoehorn a play set of Boros Reckoner in 3C aggro decks while also running 3-5 colorless land though. I still don't understand how they are expecting to cast Reckoner on curve consistently.
EDIT: Totally forgot about Hellrider for an instant, but my feelings on Cavern remain if you want to run Silverheart.
It's been long-understood that zombie lists could run one mountain (if they had a land count of like 23 or 24), so this is the same scenario. 3-5 colorless lands while still wanting triple white on turn-three is VERY ambitious.
It's been long-understood that zombie lists could run one mountain (if they had a land count of like 23 or 24), so this is the same scenario. 3-5 colorless lands while still wanting triple white on turn-three is VERY ambitious.
it's triple red/white in any combination there-of. So the temple gardens are pretty spot on. The thing we'll have to test is if the additional damage we take from the shock lands will be negated by boros reckoner's awesome advantage over opposing aggro.
So far I'm not sure, as just about any other aggro that we're trying to race is probably going to have the reckoner as well.
Private Mod Note
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Big thanks to DarkNightCavalier from heroes of the planes studios for the sig!
What I'm trying to say is that you need like 24 red/white sources to have a ~80% chance of casting the reckoner on 3...
as long as I'm above 70% I'm good with it. breaking the numbers might look scary on paper but when it all comes down to basics anything above 50% is in your favor. Maybe I'm just a wild man.
still, you can sit here and try to jack up your percentages to cast reckoner but sometimes you might lose sight of what other percentages you lose by doing so.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Big thanks to DarkNightCavalier from heroes of the planes studios for the sig!
as long as I'm above 70% I'm good with it. breaking the numbers might look scary on paper but when it all comes down to basics anything above 50% is in your favor. Maybe I'm just a wild man.
still, you can sit here and try to jack up your percentages to cast reckoner but sometimes you might lose sight of what other percentages you lose by doing so.
Cool, just seeing A LOT of ambitious mana-bases with these decks and don't want to see everyone get roflpwned because they're giving up too much consistency for one card. Boros Reckoner is the freaking nuts, but he's just like Geralf's Messenger: every land in builds with under 22 lands need to be able to cast him, and additional lands really need to be looked at before they go into another color or utility. Just my 2c.
Thoughts?
I'd love to hear feedback about the manabase especially.
As you can see, this is still a relatively rough list with the 2/2 split at 3cmc and 4ofs in a lot of spots.
The only spot I do like right now is 3 rancor as opposed to 4. Having 2 rancor in hand is great, but 3 is normally very bad. My testing with 4 led to some awkward positions post wrath. And so I cut 1 rancor for 1 Ghor-Clan to give a similar affect but a potential body.
I think you should drop kessig to 1 and the forests to 3 if you want to be able to cast ash zealot on turn 2 as much as you want.
I still don't like borderland ranger, but I guess he gets you your 4th land drop to consistently drop hellrider so it is what it is.
I've been leaning towards dropping the 2nd kessig. Borderland ranger as so far been quite good in testing. He gets the 4th land and can color fix for a silverheart if i need a green source.
My initial thoughts are:
1) Kessig Wolf Run should never be more than a one-of.
2) I want at least one more G source.
3) BTE creates a ton of early pressure and the amount of different things you can chain off him makes him a worthy slot IMO.
4) Ghor-Clan Rampager's bloodrush ability makes him a decent early draw, and his 4/4 trample for 4cmc isn't necessarily bad either, but I would never cast him over a Hellrider on t4. I think more testing is warranted.
I'm going to do some testing with Boarderland Ranger/Wolfir Silverheart as a finisher and try a list that is a little grindier as Z has suggested. But overall, I think Gruul has the potential to be extremely explosive. The only issue I have run into so far was a situation where I would have my opponent on the backfoot, but I would fail to draw into the finishers and cards I needed to end the game. This reinforces the need to test some lists that have a little more stock to push through the mid/late game.
PS Hound of Griselbrand wants badly to see play in this deck.
I've actually been seeing pretty good results with gruul charm. Mainly just for the "creatures without flying can't block" clause. I still have yet to run into a flying creature before turn 4. Haven't seen lingering souls or midnight haunting once.
I'm basically trying the charm out in place of mizzium mortars as an out to boros reckoner.
as long as I'm above 70% I'm good with it. breaking the numbers might look scary on paper but when it all comes down to basics anything above 50% is in your favor. Maybe I'm just a wild man.
still, you can sit here and try to jack up your percentages to cast reckoner but sometimes you might lose sight of what other percentages you lose by doing so.
That's right, coz' at the end of the day even your chances to draw 2-4 lands in your openener aren't nowhere close to even 90%. It looks ruff on paper, but magic is a game of luck too, and you have to accept these rates. Oh, and I'd definitely play 2-3 KWRs.
According to this little chart I'm looking at, you have an 8.2% chance of drawing 2x BTE on the play by T2 and a 10.3% chance on the draw. So, something like that should happen in 1 out of every 10 games or so.
Thank you, math is nice
Depending on the prevalence of sweepers in the meta one will certainly be stronger than the other.
Yeah I do mean emmisary thanks.
Well... I guess it's just variance. Course by those same charts mana screw shouldn't happen.
So Who's feeling lucky, I guess. but is nice to know that 1 in 10 games is whats expected. Knowing if I'm above average is cool.
Pr(2 reds on turn 2) = 1 - Pr(0 or 1 reds on turn 2) - Pr(2 Rootbound Crags) = 1 - [(19,0)(41,8)+(19,1)(41,7)]/(60,8) - (4,2)(41,6)/(60,8) = 78.52%.
Thus, with 19 sources and being on the play, there's a 78.52% chance that you'll cast a turn-2 Ash Zealot. Meh, that's not high enough for my liking, but to each his own.
For a T2 Flinthoof Boar in this deck, optimally you'd like 11 G sources. What about Silverheart you ask? Well, for 2 Silverheart, optimally you'd like to run 13. So the question is, how can I provide for Silverheart without tampering with the R sources in my list for Zealot.
Well, I was just looking through my deck lists on MODO and came across this janky Descendant's Path list that focused on Warriors. It reminded me that Ash Zealot and Wolfir Silverheart share the same warrior typing. I think Cavern of souls is the answer.
So, assuming you're not pulling off the Garden Temple shenanigans to cater to Boros Reckoner, a mana base such as this..
4 Rootbound Crag
10 Mountain
3 Forest
2 Cavern of Souls
..would allow you to hit the important stuff on curve rather comfortably while also giving you a valuable tool versus control. Amazingly enough, if you do decide to swap out the 3 Forest with 3 Temple Garden here, you can play Ash Zealot, Boros Reckoner and Wolfir Silverheart all in the same deck and expect to hit them on curve consistently. Pretty sweet.
Are you sure this is correct? I could have sworn it was closer to 88% with 19 R sources.
It's about 80-85% depending on if you're on the play or draw.
—Jaya Ballard, task mage
This doesn't mean you're going to hit your drops (that depends on number of lands), but you'll at least have single, and double green respectively.
What are you trying to compute here? Pr(GG for Silverheart) or Pr(casting Silverheart) or Pr(5 mana on turn 5)? Note that Pr(casting Silverheart) = Pr(GG,5mana).
My mistake, I messed up when inputting the numbers into this nifty hypergeometric calculator.
Still, I'm not opposed to around an 80% success rate here. On the draw T2 G is around 88% with T5 GG being around 80% as well.
I do now realize less than 20 R sources for Zealot is a bad idea though.
I hear you, in longer tournaments an increased failure rate of 10% will indeed creep up on you. So, yeah we might be getting a bit too greedy here by just trying to skate by with the bare minimum. I still think for this specific deck at least, Cavern of Souls can go a long way, as it caters to the only two creatures with double colors in their costs.
Try explaining this to the people trying to shoehorn a play set of Boros Reckoner in 3C aggro decks while also running 3-5 colorless land though. I still don't understand how they are expecting to cast Reckoner on curve consistently.
EDIT: Totally forgot about Hellrider for an instant, but my feelings on Cavern remain if you want to run Silverheart.
it's triple red/white in any combination there-of. So the temple gardens are pretty spot on. The thing we'll have to test is if the additional damage we take from the shock lands will be negated by boros reckoner's awesome advantage over opposing aggro.
So far I'm not sure, as just about any other aggro that we're trying to race is probably going to have the reckoner as well.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
as long as I'm above 70% I'm good with it. breaking the numbers might look scary on paper but when it all comes down to basics anything above 50% is in your favor. Maybe I'm just a wild man.
still, you can sit here and try to jack up your percentages to cast reckoner but sometimes you might lose sight of what other percentages you lose by doing so.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
Cool, just seeing A LOT of ambitious mana-bases with these decks and don't want to see everyone get roflpwned because they're giving up too much consistency for one card. Boros Reckoner is the freaking nuts, but he's just like Geralf's Messenger: every land in builds with under 22 lands need to be able to cast him, and additional lands really need to be looked at before they go into another color or utility. Just my 2c.
4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Ash Zealot
4 Flinthoof Boar
2 Pyreheart Wolf
2 Borderland Ranger
4 Hellrider
2 Wolfir Silverheart
3 Rancor
2 Searing Spear
Land
2 Kessig Wolf Run
4 Stomping Grounds
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Forest
10 Mountain
Thoughts?
I'd love to hear feedback about the manabase especially.
As you can see, this is still a relatively rough list with the 2/2 split at 3cmc and 4ofs in a lot of spots.
The only spot I do like right now is 3 rancor as opposed to 4. Having 2 rancor in hand is great, but 3 is normally very bad. My testing with 4 led to some awkward positions post wrath. And so I cut 1 rancor for 1 Ghor-Clan to give a similar affect but a potential body.
I still don't like borderland ranger, but I guess he gets you your 4th land drop to consistently drop hellrider so it is what it is.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
I've been leaning towards dropping the 2nd kessig. Borderland ranger as so far been quite good in testing. He gets the 4th land and can color fix for a silverheart if i need a green source.
4x Stomping Ground
4x Rootbound Crag
2x Forest
12x Mountain
1x Kessig Wolf Run
4x Stromkirk Noble
4x Rakdos Cackler
4x Ash Zealot
4x Burning-tree Emissary
3x Lightning Mauler
4x Flinthoof Boar
4x Hellrider
2x Ghor-Clan Rampager
4x Rancor
4x Searing Spear
My initial thoughts are:
1) Kessig Wolf Run should never be more than a one-of.
2) I want at least one more G source.
3) BTE creates a ton of early pressure and the amount of different things you can chain off him makes him a worthy slot IMO.
4) Ghor-Clan Rampager's bloodrush ability makes him a decent early draw, and his 4/4 trample for 4cmc isn't necessarily bad either, but I would never cast him over a Hellrider on t4. I think more testing is warranted.
I'm going to do some testing with Boarderland Ranger/Wolfir Silverheart as a finisher and try a list that is a little grindier as Z has suggested. But overall, I think Gruul has the potential to be extremely explosive. The only issue I have run into so far was a situation where I would have my opponent on the backfoot, but I would fail to draw into the finishers and cards I needed to end the game. This reinforces the need to test some lists that have a little more stock to push through the mid/late game.
PS Hound of Griselbrand wants badly to see play in this deck.
I'm basically trying the charm out in place of mizzium mortars as an out to boros reckoner.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
That's right, coz' at the end of the day even your chances to draw 2-4 lands in your openener aren't nowhere close to even 90%. It looks ruff on paper, but magic is a game of luck too, and you have to accept these rates. Oh, and I'd definitely play 2-3 KWRs.
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