Thassa is conditional and Master of wave is very fragile
Most of the time Thassa scry out land.
And Spreading Seas is not very aggro in my mind. Cantriping Screwing mana and making our guy unblocable is efficient but not aggro.
I agree that Merfolk can have some very Aggressive start but If we were truly an aggro deck we would run Cosi Trickster and not Cursecatcher
When Cursecatcher becomes a 3/3 on turn 3 or 4, it's still a very aggressive body. Spreading Seas serves as a bit of disruption and consistency, but also frequently gives all your guys UNBLOCKABLE. Thassa might only be a scry after Supreme Verdict and other effects, but it's still a durable creature that can very easily become a 5/5 basher. Last time I checked, these were things Aggro decks are looking for.
Just because Zoo is not a Tier 1 deck, does not mean other decks must fit into the traditional "dudes + burn" Rubric to qualify as Aggro. Anything that is attempting to attack as it's plan A can be classified as Aggro. Affinity does this, it just so happens to have enough synergy and powerhouse cards, that people also call it combo. In short though:
Merfolk = Aggro
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I really like what Reid Duke had to say. His article is behind a paywall so I don't know the ethics of posting it entirely here, but I'll give a few bullet points that I think matter.
1. Deathrite Shaman & Birthing Pod & Snapcaster Mage are the 3 cards he thinks could be banned. If one gets banned, they all need to get banned. Banning one makes the other 2 too powerful.
2. Affinity is bit of a special case. I consider it to be an excellent deck, but the tools to keep Affinity in check are easily available to Modern players at all times. Affinity would not be able to sustain itself as more than about 15% of the field in the long run because if it was ever on track to do so people would simply start sideboard six or more hate cards to hose it. I believe that Affinity will be a constant presence in Modern, but I don't think we have to worry about it becoming absolutely dominant. I also believe it to be relatively safe from a banning.
I agree 100% with Reid on Affinity. It's a great deck. In my opinion it's one of the best decks that Modern has seen. It has the explosive power and it's reasonably consistent. However, WotC keeps printing cards like Stony Silence, or allows so many cards that completely deny the deck to be in Modern. How does Affinity beat turn 2 Stony Silence? It usually just doesn't. There are so many sideboard options available to stop Affinity. Affinity is pretty much designed to win game 1 almost every time, and then just hope and pray that you don't draw into SB cards so it can win game 2 or 3.
Affinity is a necessary evil in Modern. Yes, people don't like that you can just animate Inkmoth and hit for 10, GG that was the most unfair game of magic I've ever played. But what happens to the format when Affinity is gone? Do they unban Wild Nacatl and just replace Adolf Hitler with Mao Zedong? Does the format just turn into a combo/midrange fight? Affinity keeps Modern in check. When you build a deck like Splinter Twin, or Melira/Kiki Pod and you plan on comboing off, you need to have a plan to not lose to Affinity while you make it to X turn so you can win. Affinity is healthy for the format, and it needs to stay unbanned.
I would drop Modern in a instant if either Snapcaster Mage and to lesser extent Deathrite Shaman were banned. I don't play Birthing Pod but I disagree with Reid Duke that it should be banned.
I don't think there is much that would step into Affinity's place if Robots were banned out of the format. If Wild Nacatl becomes legal, than it's possible that some sort of Zoo deck becomes the next contender, but I'm not sure those decks will prey on Jund and other midrange as well as Affinity does. Affinity wins because all it's threats can't be answered usually, and thus it still cranks through damage until the bitter end. Decks like Zoo don't dump their hand as fast, and so something like Jund can actually trade off cards fast enough to keep up with the damage and usually stabilize. Not to mention Affinity is like 70% unblockable against a lot of decks, whereas it's a lot easier to throw a Bob+DRS in the way of an incoming Lynx/Nacatl/Ape. For these reasons, I think that even if Wild Nacatl comes back, Zoo will still linger in the Tier 1.5 realm while Affinity stays on top.
And no I don't think there is any reason to ban anything from Affinity. This coming from a Jund player who just lost 3 out of 4 matches to Affinity in GP Prague, and thus missed Day 2.
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If I had to ballpark it, about every 5th page or so.
/sarcasm
But seriously the way we all circle around retreading old ground I can only imagine the virtual dirt we've plodded has become a neck-deep trench.
Actually, most of us gave up on Ponder/Preordain being unbanned this time around with Splinter Twin doing so well. Most people also have given up on Ancestral Vision being unbanned after WUR Midrange won GP Prague. Most of use are predicting no changes, but if something is unbanned it will be GGT or Bitterblossom. People have been arguing about Nacatl a lot.
I personally think that Wizards won't unban anything and that I will be annoyed.
If pod or Snapcaster or shaman gets banned that will send people over the edge in modern.
If this is meant to compete with legacy (or at least get around the stupid reserved list) it's sure as hell not allowing for a card pool that allows for good decks. Yea lets just ban some of the best cards in each set in the past 3 years.
Starting to seem more like "let's keep banning good decks" instead of forcing innovation or letting new cards come out each set.
If pod or Snapcaster or shaman gets banned that will send people over the edge in modern.
If this is meant to compete with legacy (or at least get around the stupid reserved list) it's sure as hell not allowing for a card pool that allows for good decks. Yea lets just ban some of the best cards in each set in the past 3 years.
Starting to seem more like "let's keep banning good decks" instead of forcing innovation or letting new cards come out each set.
Modern is too ban happy it seems.
If only I had more room in my sig. The 2 things that I would add are
NWO is Wizards's policy of reducing complexity in commons. It has nothing to do with power-level.
Modern is not a ban-happy format. We have had 3 bans in the last 2 years. That is not a lot.
If a deck plays a spell other than direct damage or creatures it isn't aggro don't cha know.
I this serious? Please, tell me this is sarcasm...
Just because merfolk plays around 10 non-creature spells, it is not aggro? Most merfolk builds aggro with a slight lean toward tempo, but the core is aggro. The basic strategy of merfolk is to stack lords and bash in the face, if this is not aggro, what is aggro?
About all the Affinity "i kill you before the turn 3". If affinity can kill you before turn 4 with a stony silence in play... then something is REALLY wrong.
I was also on the unban Preordain/Ancestral Visions boat, but due to the last GPs results, i suppose this will not be the case. And since i belive wizards don't have balls to unban Bitterblossom even if it's not a problem for modern, and also that wizards will not unban "do-nothing-for-the-format" cards such as GGT. No changes will be made to the ban list.
I this serious? Please, tell me this is sarcasm...
Just because merfolk plays around 10 non-creature spells, it is not aggro? Most merfolk builds aggro with a slight lean toward tempo, but the core is aggro. The basic strategy of merfolk is to stack lords and bash in the face, if this is not aggro, what is aggro?
About all the Affinity "i kill you before the turn 3". If affinity can kill you before turn 4 with a stony silence in play... then something is REALLY wrong.
I'm pretty sure that it was sarcasm. "Don't cha know" implies that he isn't serious.
For the crap it gets, Deathrite really doesn't throw a game's balance off. He's a mana dork with a graveyard requirement, has an ability similar to Lavamancer, but can't touch creatures, or he can get a player two life, which isn't the most useful ability. This reminds me of the talk about banning Masticore back in the day; it was a card used in virtually every deck then, was a solid win condition, could keep himself around, and could wipe an opponent's field. He wasn't banned. I know it's two different eras and formats, but there are just so many answers to DRS, it would be insane to ban him.
Wizards has to reel in on the bannings. Look at the prime targets. DRS, Snapcaster, and Pod. Two of those appear in multiple competitive decks, and one in a very fair deck. Banning multiple cards with higher value all at once would just cause a measurable group of players to drop the format, jaded that they've been burned AGAIN after investing in a competitive deck. If Wizards wants to prevent a few really dominant decks, print answers in new sets, unban cards, but don't reduce the card pool even more every time groups start whining about card X ruining games. Those complaints often come from players too lazy to try to solve those problem cards, players who prefer to netdeck, players who haven't yet learned the fine art of side boarding...etc.
None of these cards create a deck like Eggs. None of these cards are a Survival or an Academy. They are utility cards.
my prediction for the ban list update: no changes for any format, well maybe vintage cause I'm too poor to play that format and as such don't follow anything about it so I don't know about what potential unrestrictions could go there. but for all intensive purposes I would guesstimate that there will be no changes.
Edit: to above post there are plenty of answers to DRS, Snaps, and pod the problem imo is finding the right universal answer for all 3 of them because they are 3 vastly different abilities though they all rely on the graveyard (pod the least though).
If pod or Snapcaster or shaman gets banned that will send people over the edge in modern.
If this is meant to compete with legacy (or at least get around the stupid reserved list) it's sure as hell not allowing for a card pool that allows for good decks. Yea lets just ban some of the best cards in each set in the past 3 years.
Starting to seem more like "let's keep banning good decks" instead of forcing innovation or letting new cards come out each set.
Modern is too ban happy it seems.
In the 3 LGS I play modern at, 95% of the modern players have a Niche card that if it got banned they would outright quit. I'm not sure if everyone has this feeling. If DRS gets the axe though, I'll be in legacy and never look back...
This is really commonplace at the moment, but the truth is that WotC failed to build confidence in the format due to it's mismanagement of the banned list, which is excessive and several cards are on it with very little or no justification what so ever.
Worse still, popular perception is that they will continue to ban cards they deem break the arbitrary rules for the format that are only known to themselves. The Turn Four Rule is the most often quoted one but from experience but it's almost obvious that WotC discriminates in it's application. Storm got hit by bans because it breaks it, but Affinity and Infect remain untouched even though they break the said rule far more consistently.
Apart from TFR, most other criteria are a mystery (mostly because they are being applied inconsistently), leading to a format in which people when confronted by a new deck instead of asking themselves is this good ask will this get banned?
The first step in fixing this problem should be to take off the ban list the cards which, by wide opinion, should not be there (Bitterblossom, Wild Nacatl, Golgari Grave-Troll and Ancestral Vision).
On the other hand, they could just continue to ban cards like Deathrite Shaman or Snapcaster Mage until they kill of the format entirely. In practice just about any addition to the ban list contributes to this.
At least, that's how I feel about the format at present.
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In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
Are we really considering a Snapcaster ban? The LAST card that is pretty much allowing blue to be a color in Modern? I mean, I get Wizards is scared of control currently, but they wouldn't be that dumb. Nobody is that dumb. They've already made control impossible to play in the format. Unless they are trying to balance the colors across all formats (since blue sees so much Legacy play, it needs to be balanced by having almost no modern play), then I don't see it happening.
Are we really considering a Snapcaster ban? The LAST card that is pretty much allowing blue to be a color in Modern? I mean, I get Wizards is scared of control currently, but they wouldn't be that dumb. Nobody is that dumb. They've already made control impossible to play in the format. Unless they are trying to balance the colors across all formats (since blue sees so much Legacy play, it needs to be balanced by having almost no modern play), then I don't see it happening.
I don't think people are actually saying it needs to be banned, just saying if they were to ban some thing this time around, it would be one of the most likely along with DRS and Pod. I predict no bans this time but not sure whether they will try an unban or not. I was actually hoping the meta would be more stagnant lately in hopes of an unban or two but we just saw two decks win GP's that hadn't before. Still hoping for any one or two of the following to be unbanned but I won't hold my breath;
-Sword of The Meek
-Wild Nacatl
-Ancestral Visions
-Bitterblossom
-GGT
I am QUITE confident Snapcater Mage will not get banned. There's absolutely no reason for it. I'm also pretty sure they will leave DRS and Pod alone, though those two have a little bit more of a target on their heads admittedly. Still, in my opinion, there is nothing that needs banning in Modern, and I think Wizards has thus far eliminated the cards they really see as problematic.
Unbanning one or more of the above 5 cards mentioned in Squirrel Token's list seems like a fine proposition to me. Even if those cards turn out to be too powerful or oppressive, giving them a chance to shake things up still seems like a healthy choice. It would shake up the format for the Pro Tour without reducing the card pool and enraging even more players, and if anything all those cards represent either a boost to Aggro, Control, or Graveyard combo; decks which are not currently heavily represented in the top Tier.
I think an Unban is far more likely than a Ban this month. The format is pretty stable and relatively diverse in the lower Tiers. We just need a few new contenders to fight with Jund and U/R decks for Tier 1 status.
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Sword of the Meek is a pretty stupid combo, but I don't think it's unmanageable in Modern as it once was in Legacy/Extended. It's very powerful, but takes a good amount of setup, especially with the distinct lack of tutors (Enlightened or Stoneforge) and Card Selection available. It dies to Abrupt Decay and Ooze/DRS effects, as well as any other instant speed GY hoser. These effects are available to anyone in any color (such as with Relic of Progenitus), and are already available to many of the top decks. The combo requires lots of mana, and two cards, and even then it's not game over, just "game annoying". It might hose the creature decks a little bit more, but nearly every deck in Modern is based on creatures to some extent. I don't see Sword of the Meek being a problematic combo to deal with, and it certainly doesn't break the turn 4 rule.
Wild Nacatl has no business being banned. They tried it in an attempt to support "other" aggro decks, but the only thing that happened is that aggro swapped into DRS, or dried up entirely. Maybe the absence of Nacatl is what allows decks like Souls Sisters, G/W, and Big Naya to "thrive" a bit more, but it's not like any of those decks are close to Tier 1 playable. Nacatl might stifle some innovation on the Aggro front, but it would at least allow for a competitive Aggro build. I wouldn't be surprised if it stays banned for now, but as the saying goes, NEVER say NEVER. You will one day eat your words, I promise.
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AV and GGT can come off without a problem. Bitterblossom is edge case but it might come off. Meek and Nactal will NEVER come off.
Explain how Meek and Nacatl are never coming off. With power creep the way it's going Nacatl isn't nearly as good of a creature as he used to be ans will probably be outclassed soon. Sword is an easily disrupted slow combo. When you can easily win on the spot with other 2 card combos like Splinter Twin, how is Sword bannable?
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When Cursecatcher becomes a 3/3 on turn 3 or 4, it's still a very aggressive body. Spreading Seas serves as a bit of disruption and consistency, but also frequently gives all your guys UNBLOCKABLE. Thassa might only be a scry after Supreme Verdict and other effects, but it's still a durable creature that can very easily become a 5/5 basher. Last time I checked, these were things Aggro decks are looking for.
Just because Zoo is not a Tier 1 deck, does not mean other decks must fit into the traditional "dudes + burn" Rubric to qualify as Aggro. Anything that is attempting to attack as it's plan A can be classified as Aggro. Affinity does this, it just so happens to have enough synergy and powerhouse cards, that people also call it combo. In short though:
Merfolk = Aggro
RGB Jund BGR
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1. Deathrite Shaman & Birthing Pod & Snapcaster Mage are the 3 cards he thinks could be banned. If one gets banned, they all need to get banned. Banning one makes the other 2 too powerful.
2. Affinity is bit of a special case. I consider it to be an excellent deck, but the tools to keep Affinity in check are easily available to Modern players at all times. Affinity would not be able to sustain itself as more than about 15% of the field in the long run because if it was ever on track to do so people would simply start sideboard six or more hate cards to hose it. I believe that Affinity will be a constant presence in Modern, but I don't think we have to worry about it becoming absolutely dominant. I also believe it to be relatively safe from a banning.
I agree 100% with Reid on Affinity. It's a great deck. In my opinion it's one of the best decks that Modern has seen. It has the explosive power and it's reasonably consistent. However, WotC keeps printing cards like Stony Silence, or allows so many cards that completely deny the deck to be in Modern. How does Affinity beat turn 2 Stony Silence? It usually just doesn't. There are so many sideboard options available to stop Affinity. Affinity is pretty much designed to win game 1 almost every time, and then just hope and pray that you don't draw into SB cards so it can win game 2 or 3.
Affinity is a necessary evil in Modern. Yes, people don't like that you can just animate Inkmoth and hit for 10, GG that was the most unfair game of magic I've ever played. But what happens to the format when Affinity is gone? Do they unban Wild Nacatl and just replace Adolf Hitler with Mao Zedong? Does the format just turn into a combo/midrange fight? Affinity keeps Modern in check. When you build a deck like Splinter Twin, or Melira/Kiki Pod and you plan on comboing off, you need to have a plan to not lose to Affinity while you make it to X turn so you can win. Affinity is healthy for the format, and it needs to stay unbanned.
And no I don't think there is any reason to ban anything from Affinity. This coming from a Jund player who just lost 3 out of 4 matches to Affinity in GP Prague, and thus missed Day 2.
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RUGB Delver GURB
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UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
1. Nothing will get banned.
2. Ponder -OR- Preordain will get unbanned, but not both. Wild Nacatl will be unbanned.
That's it. It'll be pretty boring, as everyone pretty much expects that to happen.
The only card that can safely be banned to slow down Affinity (even though it doesn't need to happen) is Etched Champion.
Everyone's expecting the unbanning of preordain/ponder and nacatl? Since when?
Nacatl sure but since when has everyone thought ponder/preordain would be unbanned?
If I had to ballpark it, about every 5th page or so.
/sarcasm
But seriously the way we all circle around retreading old ground I can only imagine the virtual dirt we've plodded has become a neck-deep trench.
Actually, most of us gave up on Ponder/Preordain being unbanned this time around with Splinter Twin doing so well. Most people also have given up on Ancestral Vision being unbanned after WUR Midrange won GP Prague. Most of use are predicting no changes, but if something is unbanned it will be GGT or Bitterblossom. People have been arguing about Nacatl a lot.
I personally think that Wizards won't unban anything and that I will be annoyed.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
If this is meant to compete with legacy (or at least get around the stupid reserved list) it's sure as hell not allowing for a card pool that allows for good decks. Yea lets just ban some of the best cards in each set in the past 3 years.
Starting to seem more like "let's keep banning good decks" instead of forcing innovation or letting new cards come out each set.
Modern is too ban happy it seems.
If only I had more room in my sig. The 2 things that I would add are
NWO is Wizards's policy of reducing complexity in commons. It has nothing to do with power-level.
Modern is not a ban-happy format. We have had 3 bans in the last 2 years. That is not a lot.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I this serious? Please, tell me this is sarcasm...
Just because merfolk plays around 10 non-creature spells, it is not aggro? Most merfolk builds aggro with a slight lean toward tempo, but the core is aggro. The basic strategy of merfolk is to stack lords and bash in the face, if this is not aggro, what is aggro?
About all the Affinity "i kill you before the turn 3". If affinity can kill you before turn 4 with a stony silence in play... then something is REALLY wrong.
I was also on the unban Preordain/Ancestral Visions boat, but due to the last GPs results, i suppose this will not be the case. And since i belive wizards don't have balls to unban Bitterblossom even if it's not a problem for modern, and also that wizards will not unban "do-nothing-for-the-format" cards such as GGT. No changes will be made to the ban list.
I'm pretty sure that it was sarcasm. "Don't cha know" implies that he isn't serious.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Wizards has to reel in on the bannings. Look at the prime targets. DRS, Snapcaster, and Pod. Two of those appear in multiple competitive decks, and one in a very fair deck. Banning multiple cards with higher value all at once would just cause a measurable group of players to drop the format, jaded that they've been burned AGAIN after investing in a competitive deck. If Wizards wants to prevent a few really dominant decks, print answers in new sets, unban cards, but don't reduce the card pool even more every time groups start whining about card X ruining games. Those complaints often come from players too lazy to try to solve those problem cards, players who prefer to netdeck, players who haven't yet learned the fine art of side boarding...etc.
None of these cards create a deck like Eggs. None of these cards are a Survival or an Academy. They are utility cards.
http://supervillainous.spiderforest.com
Edit: to above post there are plenty of answers to DRS, Snaps, and pod the problem imo is finding the right universal answer for all 3 of them because they are 3 vastly different abilities though they all rely on the graveyard (pod the least though).
In the 3 LGS I play modern at, 95% of the modern players have a Niche card that if it got banned they would outright quit. I'm not sure if everyone has this feeling. If DRS gets the axe though, I'll be in legacy and never look back...
Worse still, popular perception is that they will continue to ban cards they deem break the arbitrary rules for the format that are only known to themselves. The Turn Four Rule is the most often quoted one but from experience but it's almost obvious that WotC discriminates in it's application. Storm got hit by bans because it breaks it, but Affinity and Infect remain untouched even though they break the said rule far more consistently.
Apart from TFR, most other criteria are a mystery (mostly because they are being applied inconsistently), leading to a format in which people when confronted by a new deck instead of asking themselves is this good ask will this get banned?
The first step in fixing this problem should be to take off the ban list the cards which, by wide opinion, should not be there (Bitterblossom, Wild Nacatl, Golgari Grave-Troll and Ancestral Vision).
On the other hand, they could just continue to ban cards like Deathrite Shaman or Snapcaster Mage until they kill of the format entirely. In practice just about any addition to the ban list contributes to this.
At least, that's how I feel about the format at present.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
I don't think people are actually saying it needs to be banned, just saying if they were to ban some thing this time around, it would be one of the most likely along with DRS and Pod. I predict no bans this time but not sure whether they will try an unban or not. I was actually hoping the meta would be more stagnant lately in hopes of an unban or two but we just saw two decks win GP's that hadn't before. Still hoping for any one or two of the following to be unbanned but I won't hold my breath;
-Sword of The Meek
-Wild Nacatl
-Ancestral Visions
-Bitterblossom
-GGT
Unbanning one or more of the above 5 cards mentioned in Squirrel Token's list seems like a fine proposition to me. Even if those cards turn out to be too powerful or oppressive, giving them a chance to shake things up still seems like a healthy choice. It would shake up the format for the Pro Tour without reducing the card pool and enraging even more players, and if anything all those cards represent either a boost to Aggro, Control, or Graveyard combo; decks which are not currently heavily represented in the top Tier.
I think an Unban is far more likely than a Ban this month. The format is pretty stable and relatively diverse in the lower Tiers. We just need a few new contenders to fight with Jund and U/R decks for Tier 1 status.
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
I was with you until you said this.
Sword of the Meek is a pretty stupid combo, but I don't think it's unmanageable in Modern as it once was in Legacy/Extended. It's very powerful, but takes a good amount of setup, especially with the distinct lack of tutors (Enlightened or Stoneforge) and Card Selection available. It dies to Abrupt Decay and Ooze/DRS effects, as well as any other instant speed GY hoser. These effects are available to anyone in any color (such as with Relic of Progenitus), and are already available to many of the top decks. The combo requires lots of mana, and two cards, and even then it's not game over, just "game annoying". It might hose the creature decks a little bit more, but nearly every deck in Modern is based on creatures to some extent. I don't see Sword of the Meek being a problematic combo to deal with, and it certainly doesn't break the turn 4 rule.
Wild Nacatl has no business being banned. They tried it in an attempt to support "other" aggro decks, but the only thing that happened is that aggro swapped into DRS, or dried up entirely. Maybe the absence of Nacatl is what allows decks like Souls Sisters, G/W, and Big Naya to "thrive" a bit more, but it's not like any of those decks are close to Tier 1 playable. Nacatl might stifle some innovation on the Aggro front, but it would at least allow for a competitive Aggro build. I wouldn't be surprised if it stays banned for now, but as the saying goes, NEVER say NEVER. You will one day eat your words, I promise.
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
Explain how Meek and Nacatl are never coming off. With power creep the way it's going Nacatl isn't nearly as good of a creature as he used to be ans will probably be outclassed soon. Sword is an easily disrupted slow combo. When you can easily win on the spot with other 2 card combos like Splinter Twin, how is Sword bannable?