"I think TFF is the best lynch for today. If we're going strictly by behavior, he's the scummiest living player.
1. He pushed hardest for the jskura mislynch
2. He was against the AI lynch
3. He was against the DKD lynch up until it was clear that DKD wasn't going to make it through the day, then he quickly reversed his opinion on him.
3a. He hopped on the weak 'Magwald bussed his scumbuddy AI' theory when pressure on DKD was mounting.
4. Look why he unvoted me day 3. He literally said 'find me a post where you don't distort words and I'll unvote you'. This shows his 'Magwald as scum' convictions were never strong to begin with.
5. He was AI's claimed watch target, which in and of itself is quite damning. vote TheFooFish"
Apart from item 4 this is a very decent summary of the TFF case. I am not finished my re-read but my suspicions against TFF and RobRoy have not been greatly shifted. Individually, each part of it is not damning but as an accumulation it is strong. Part 3a is the best point, since the "Magwald bussed his scum buddy" wagon was so very bad.
While we're waiting for Arcadic to reply, let's have some more flavor fun:
Let's group the dead players by association.
Town:
2. jskura, The High Abbot (Town) - Lynched Day 1
3. creampuffeater, The Director (Town) - Strangled Night 1
4. desCoures, The Guildmaster (Town) - Impaled Night 1
5. Wrath of DoG, The Oracle (Town) - Bloodied Night 1
8. DYH, The Merchant Prince (Town) - Impaled Night 3
9. Infinis, The Keeper of Secrets (Town) - Devoured Night 3
Mafia:
6. AlphaInsidious, The Pirate King (Mafia) - Lynched Day 2
7. dropkickdude, The Dark Patriarch (Mafia) - Lynched Day 3
I've highlighted the rolenames for you. Now, Arcadic has claimed the role of "The Lich Lord". Can you guess which group that would fall under? Hint: It's not the first one.
While my name falls within the first list ("non-scummy", if you will), this is a dangerous game to play. Few if any mods will play this completely straight. Even then, who's to say "The Pirate King" is necessarily a scummier name than "The Keeper of Secrets"?
Magwald's name claim just makes it an even worse point.
And sep was trying to save DKD yesterday by saying DKD was harmless and neutralized. Defending and distancing all in one. Nice play scum. Almost worked.
This is true: so is it TFF distancing from a scum buddy?
I find it hard to read Sepiriel, it's the "bad vs scummy" thing again.
It doesn't actually do anything but the timing makes sense. I lose my vote gain a body part, unless I misunderstand my lore can't liches just give body parts away?
As someone has pointed out already, the previous night someone gave me the Lidless Eye, and last night it left me and apparently ended up on you. Clearly nothing to do with the vote ability.
Oh, and to confirm for Axelrod what I have claimed:
- I have an item which compulsory vigs on even nights. I targeted DKD on night 2 and it failed (we now know this is because he was "jailed"). It comes up again tonight.
- I have a follower who protects me from one kill attempt and then becomes exhausted. It was exhausted on night 2, presumably due to one of the missing kills (although it is not completely impossible I was targeted by an ability which exhausts followers, it seems unlikely).
- On night 2, I received an item called the Lidless Eye which apparently did nothing. On night 3 that item vanished from my possession (and apparently ended up with WWAB).
So, it's a coincidence that your titles are like Mr. and Mrs. Scum?
Honestly now i would really like your name title because unless your name is "Rosey McSugarsweetpuppylovingtweengirl" i cannot see how this is in any way relevant, so he was a patriarch and i a matriarch, ergo we both must be scum, forget the notion that male and female's argue about pretty much anything so being in antagonistic teams makes about as much sense as being in the same (Specially when you consider the hierarchy system we both control).
Considering there was a name reveal ability, I'm guessing you're right that role names are at least some what tied to alignment. It's possible we'll have a townie or two with slightly scummy sounding names, but the bodies so far do show a pretty clear distinction. -However, I think there's more against Sep than arc. And I'd be willing to give the lich a night to use his ability.
Honestly now? there is more against me than arcadic?????
The most you have on me is this stupid flavor thing, which is just as easily explained for towns.
"It is interesting, isn't it? So why not vote him?"
Its not really interesting so much as sad, as for why no vote it would be no more than an OMGUS, honestly up until the recent push i only had the possibility of him as scum because i thought infinis to be scum (which is why he was my target yesterday), so with his reveal as town i started this day with him as likely town, but this weak wagon he is picking up makes me question his position.
"TFF Day 1: Pushes hardest for the Jskura mislynch
TFF Day 2: Fights against the AI scum lynch
TFF Day 3: Fights against the DKD scum lynch up until the last second.
TFF Day 4: Flavorgames on Sepiriel."
"TFF, you demanded a full claim from Arcadic earlier. Now I want one from you."
/barn
@Axel:
I am a roleblocker, have 1 spell, 1 artifact and 2 followers.
N1: I targeted desCoures, used no followers
N2: I targeted DKD, used the Toad which would have repeated the roleblock on dkd for the rest of the game or until his death regardless of whether the follower became discarded or i died. I also received the Artifact Stones of Communion (or Communion Stones).
N3: I targeted TFF, used no followers.
I still have one lovely follower which i cradle and pet as i weave my hex each night and whose abilities i have not revealed.
Both the Toad and the Undisclosed Follower are transferable (but the toad is exhausted and cannot be transfered anymore as a result)
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I feel that flavour gaming is really not going to get us anywhere - No mod (and certainly not one as good as Dagger) is going to make his game breakable by a mass name claim. So we should step back from arbitrary role analysis and focus on behaviour.
I protected Eco N2. I was told my action went through however I was not told if it did anything. Now what I want to know is, is Eco vulnerable? My thought trail continues from there and I will post with my thoughts after he responds.
Oh, and to confirm for Axelrod what I have claimed:
- I have an item which compulsory vigs on even nights. I targeted DKD on night 2 and it failed (we now know this is because he was "jailed"). It comes up again tonight.
Oh yes, we need to direct this. If Arcadic intends to use his Vig shot tonight too, I propose that RafK should shoot Arcadic, to minimize potential townies deaths and to gank Aracdic if he's lying.
Quote from RafK »
Apart from item 4 this is a very decent summary of the TFF case. I am not finished my re-read but my suspicions against TFF and RobRoy have not been greatly shifted. Individually, each part of it is not damning but as an accumulation it is strong. Part 3a is the best point, since the "Magwald bussed his scum buddy" wagon was so very bad.
Atlseal, post your non-flavor reasons for my lynch being good.
As I said, they're on the last page. In addition to those gems brought up by Magwald and me, your abilities and night targets leave much to be desired.
Oh yes, we need to direct this. If Arcadic intends to use his Vig shot tonight too, I propose that RafK should shoot Arcadic, to minimize potential townies deaths and to gank Aracdic if he's lying.
Unvote, Vote: TheFooFish
I approve of this plan. I'd like a vig chain of:
RafK -> Arcadic -> RobRoy
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
I've re-read Day 1 (again). There were a few scattered claims and hints of claims, but the bigger stuff comes later, I know. I will say that the closest thing I found to an out-and-out lie seemed to come from Shakalako. He gave 2 "hints" that his posting spree had a purpose early on, and one of those was more promise than hint.
In Post #606
He says there is a purpose to his posting and to "trust him."
Trust me. I am doing what I am because of LRD. I apologizes for the spam but I was trying to be sutble and play it off as me just being me./Endcrpticstatementforever
and this:
Quote from Shalako »
Bear with me for a bit, it is worth it.
These are in response to Vamp. complaining about his spamming.
So, I don't think these posts fit with his claim. His claim is that he was spamming up the thread to become highest poster just in the hope that he might get something for it. I do not see how he could be telling people to "trust him" and saying things like "It is worth it" when he supposedly has ZERO information that posting all these posts will get him anything at all.
What if, come Night 1, nothing had happened? What then? What was the "plan" Shak? to come back into the thread and say "Hay guys, remember where I told you it was worth it and to trust me? Forget all that, totally not worth it...."
I'm just not feeling that.
I'm not prepared to call him scum over it just yet - I kind of liked his early posting a lot - but it's making me very wary. I've never played a game with Shak before, so I am not familiar with his style or his ability to carry off posting like he does if scum. I think I'm also more inclined to feel good about people who post a lot and with aggressiveness, which he does, so it could also just be a bad read due to personal bias.
This guy also claimed at least semi-untargetable, which makes me wary as well.
Day 2 stuff I'm hoping will be more revealing as more things get claimed. So please no lynching yet. I might (or might not) have something to claim myself before the end....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Given that:
A = Arcadic
B = atlseal
C = Axelrod
D = Eco
E = Magwald
F = RafK
G = RR
H = Shalako
I = Sepiriel
J = TFF
K = WwaB
L = Vampyr
Base Premises:
!J -> I && L
!H -> A && E
!A -> H && I && K && L
!E -> H && 8
!I -> A && J
!K -> !E && !D
If->then becoming If not 'then', then not 'if':
!I || !L -> J
!A || !E -> H
!H || !I || !K || !L -> A
!H || !8 -> E
!A || !J -> I
E || D -> K
Derived Conclusions:
!A -> H && I && K && L
A -> (!H && E) || H
D -> K
!D -> (!K && !E) || K
!E -> H && 8
E -> K && ((!H && A) || H)
!H -> A && E
H -> ((!A && I && K && L) || A) && ((!E && 8) || E)
!I -> A && J
I -> ((!J && L) || J) && ((!A && H && K && L) || A)
!J -> I && L
J -> (!I && A) || I
!K -> A && !E && !D
K -> (!A && H && I && L) || A
!L -> A && J
L -> ((!J && I) || J) && ((!A && H && I && K) || A)
==========
How to read the above (examples):
- The first base premise states that "If TFF is mafia, then Sepiriel and Vampyr are town"
- The first If->then reversal states that "If either Sepiriel or Vampyr are mafia, TFF is town"
- The first derived conclusion states that "If Arcadic is mafia, all of Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town"
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
Um, yeah, you need to do a better job translating all that if you want me to pay attention to it. Plus, I don't understand where your "premise" comes from in the first place. Not saying it's "wrong" if you have posts that lead you to the particular conclusion, but like, show your work or something.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Um, yeah, you need to do a better job translating all that if you want me to pay attention to it. Plus, I don't understand where your "premise" comes from in the first place. Not saying it's "wrong" if you have posts that lead you to the particular conclusion, but like, show your work or something.
I'll do that when I get home today. The premises are based upon players' targeting choices and game events.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
While my name falls within the first list ("non-scummy", if you will), this is a dangerous game to play. Few if any mods will play this completely straight. Even then, who's to say "The Pirate King" is necessarily a scummier name than "The Keeper of Secrets"?
I feel that flavour gaming is really not going to get us anywhere - No mod (and certainly not one as good as Dagger) is going to make his game breakable by a mass name claim. So we should step back from arbitrary role analysis and focus on behaviour.
And I'm guessing you're both wrong here as well. The flavor isn't based on any source material, so it's not like there are a limited number of claims. It would only be breakable by name claim if the scum are stupid enough to claim things like "Pirate King," which they were obviously smart enough to avoid doing. At least, the first caught scum avoided doing it. Our second scum just claimed his name, as scummy as it was. But, why? What changed? -The name reveal ability happened in between, which probably scared them. I'll properly case sep when I get a chance, but in the meantime, he's a RBer with a title that matches a dead scum.
Anyway, there's enough votes and other suspicion towards me that I'll claim here:
I'm the First Arcanist. I'm like the president of wizards, it's a very respected and prestigious position.
I have an Artifact called Seven Jewels. It's an ornate magic ring made with reality alloy. I wear it because, while I'm a good wizard, I'm not a natural born leader and it motivates me. -It's effect is to give me vulnerability status if I ever place a vote that isn't the first or last on a player.
I also have a spell called Quencher. I can and must use it to violently smash people with powerful magics. -It's effect is I must target a player every odd numbered night and that player will die. If I kill two vulnerable players with it, I can choose to not use it.
I also had a spell called Interpretation, which is now exhausted. It's a powerful and painful magic that extracts a person's true nature. -It's effect is to reveal a player's title in thread and it makes that player vulnerable.
N1 I killed WoD, N3 I tried to kill RR, was redirected to Vampyr despite my very specific warnings to him to not do that very thing which nearly killed us both, but I was luckily RBed. Day 2, I interpreted mag (which admittedly wasn't the best use of the item, but I had my reasons, which I explained during the discussion at that time). If I had that to take back, I would; it was a gut reaction and I didn't think it through. Although, it did have the one benefit of scaring the scum into claiming their real titles for fear of being caught lying.
Anyway, I think it was like a one shot cop ability, with mag being a miller in that sense. And either my info ability was completely useless, or sep is scum.
There is a point somewhere in here re: why Alpha felt the need to claim something other than his actual title, but, again, I haven't finished a re-read to feel like I can make that point yet.
This claim on it's face does not have obvious holes. I dislike a lot the decision to vig. WoD. Why? It can't be because he voted to lynch jskura, right? Considering you were one of the biggest jskura lynch pushers.
I've generally felt, however, that whoever used their ability on Magwald to reveal his name in the thread was probably more Town than not. Because I don't see what scum would have been hoping to achieve there.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'm the First Arcanist. I'm like the president of wizards, it's a very respected and prestigious position.
I have an Artifact called Seven Jewels. It's an ornate magic ring made with reality alloy. I wear it because, while I'm a good wizard, I'm not a natural born leader and it motivates me. -It's effect is to give me vulnerability status if I ever place a vote that isn't the first or last on a player.
I also have a spell called Quencher. I can and must use it to violently smash people with powerful magics. -It's effect is I must target a player every odd numbered night and that player will die. If I kill two vulnerable players with it, I can choose to not use it.
I also had a spell called Interpretation, which is now exhausted. It's a powerful and painful magic that extracts a person's true nature. -It's effect is to reveal a player's title in thread and it makes that player vulnerable.
N1 I killed WoD, N3 I tried to kill RR, was redirected to Vampyr despite my very specific warnings to him to not do that very thing which nearly killed us both, but I was luckily RBed. Day 2, I interpreted mag (which admittedly wasn't the best use of the item, but I had my reasons, which I explained during the discussion at that time). If I had that to take back, I would; it was a gut reaction and I didn't think it through. Although, it did have the one benefit of scaring the scum into claiming their real titles for fear of being caught lying.
Anyway, I think it was like a one shot cop ability, with mag being a miller in that sense. And either my info ability was completely useless, or sep is scum.[/spoiler]
"Horrible claim, why wouldn't you use your reveal ability on AI, considering his claim was about as convenient as possible. I see you're going down the same path as DKD and claiming to be RafK's vig counterpart. Why wouldn't you counterclaim DKD yesterday when he claimed to be the other vig?"
Because I don't see what scum would have been hoping to achieve there.
"Are you being dense on purpose? Maybe giving me vulnerability status? Keep in mind that the scum thought I was a cop at the time when that ability was used on me."
Also, scum do not have an every-other-day extra kill. No way.
True TFF hasn't demonstrated more than one kill yet, but it's something to consider.
Raf: anything in your role that has a qualifier like TFF has described (If he kills 2 vulnerable people, he can choose not to use his spell)
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
"Horrible claim, why wouldn't you use your reveal ability on AI, considering his claim was about as convenient as possible. I see you're going down the same path as DKD and claiming to be RafK's vig counterpart. Why wouldn't you counterclaim DKD yesterday when he claimed to be the other vig?"
This will be looked into.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
"You're coming on pretty strong in your defense of TFF. Too strong."
Am I?
Do you disagree with that premise (scum won't have every-other-day vig?)
I don't think I'm "defending" him at all. I am attempting to think it through though. You appear to be dismissing it out of hand.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Why? It can't be because he voted to lynch jskura, right? Considering you were one of the biggest jskura lynch pushers.
But ultimately, it was a mislynch, and his vote looked suspect afterwards. -I needed to kill someone and I agreed with some of the comments made about him at the end of that day.
Do you disagree with that premise (scum won't have every-other-day vig?)
I don't think I'm "defending" him at all. I am attempting to think it through though. You appear to be dismissing it out of hand.
"I don't think he's the every-other-day vig. DKD tried to claim the same thing and failed. The scum have only so many viable 'Don't lynch me' claims left, and the fabled RafK vig counterpart is one of them."
"And I'd like to hear why he killed WoD too. If anything, I was the prime target for a kill night 1, considering how hard I fought to convince people that jskura was a townie. This could potentially point to inside information in the mind of a vig. Yet TFF vigged a person on the wagon he was driving. :rolleyes:"
The fact of the matter remains that nobody else has claimed responsability for WoD's death, combined with TFF's reaction to being targeted by Sepiriel and Vampyr making sense, leads me to believe TFF is telling the truth.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
I was the prime target for a kill night 1, considering how hard I fought to convince people that jskura was a townie. This could potentially point to inside information in the mind of a vig. Yet TFF vigged a person on the wagon he was driving.
Because obviously killing the people who were right would have been much smarter than killing the more suspicious people who helped push the mislynch?
I may be missing something, but TFF, in post #767 you said:
Quote from TFF »
@Eco: It's not transferable, but I have an item that I'd be more than happy to trade with you, if you can find a way around that.
The "it's not transferrable" refers to the vote restriction item, yes? What other item are you talking about here?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
My role is one that makes it impossible for the SK to win the game against, and makes it more difficult for the scum team to win against.
Both of these entities would rather see me mislynched. Why, if TFF was among either of those group(s), would he come out and verify me targeted him? Would it not have been better to lie and try to push a mislynch of me and then try to explain it away afterwards?
I'm a bit pressed for time, but I plan on looking back at Arcadic. I know I flavorgamed him, and I really shouldn't. So I want to see what his past posts were like and present him something more than "Ur role name is the suckzors."
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Current Soul Collector count: 184
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
And I'm guessing you're both wrong here as well. The flavor isn't based on any source material, so it's not like there are a limited number of claims. It would only be breakable by name claim if the scum are stupid enough to claim things like "Pirate King," which they were obviously smart enough to avoid doing. At least, the first caught scum avoided doing it. Our second scum just claimed his name, as scummy as it was. But, why? What changed? -The name reveal ability happened in between, which probably scared them. I'll properly case sep when I get a chance, but in the meantime, he's a RBer with a title that matches a dead scum.
It's obviously breakable with a mass name claim - if the scum don't know not to claim their real names, then they all die. I'm also not sure you can say "the game is not breakable, scum aren't stupid enough to claim their real names" and in the next breath to condemn Sep for...claiming his real name.
Quote from TFF »
I'm the First Arcanist. I'm like the president of wizards, it's a very respected and prestigious position.
I have an Artifact called Seven Jewels. It's an ornate magic ring made with reality alloy. I wear it because, while I'm a good wizard, I'm not a natural born leader and it motivates me. -It's effect is to give me vulnerability status if I ever place a vote that isn't the first or last on a player.
I also have a spell called Quencher. I can and must use it to violently smash people with powerful magics. -It's effect is I must target a player every odd numbered night and that player will die. If I kill two vulnerable players with it, I can choose to not use it.
I also had a spell called Interpretation, which is now exhausted. It's a powerful and painful magic that extracts a person's true nature. -It's effect is to reveal a player's title in thread and it makes that player vulnerable.
N1 I killed WoD, N3 I tried to kill RR, was redirected to Vampyr despite my very specific warnings to him to not do that very thing which nearly killed us both, but I was luckily RBed. Day 2, I interpreted mag (which admittedly wasn't the best use of the item, but I had my reasons, which I explained during the discussion at that time). If I had that to take back, I would; it was a gut reaction and I didn't think it through. Although, it did have the one benefit of scaring the scum into claiming their real titles for fear of being caught lying.
Anyway, I think it was like a one shot cop ability, with mag being a miller in that sense. And either my info ability was completely useless, or sep is scum.
Urf. Half of me thinks that another scum wouldn't try claiming the "other half", and WoD was obviously a vig shot - and if no-one else claims responsibility, then you must have shot him. The other half hates the usage of Interpretation - why didn't you use on AI? It's also awkward that you only have one kill to show.
I think it would be helpful for RafK to full claim (or least the relevant bits) so we can compare his and TFF's claim - If they are actually vigs who shot on alternating nights, I would expect some symmetry.
Translated form of earlier post (for simplicity's sake, any possible SK is not accounted for with the logic, it's either mafia or not mafia):
Base Premises:
If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel and Vampyr are town.
If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic and Magwald are town.
If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
If Magwald is mafia, Shalako and star #8 (which we now know to be TFF) are town.
If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic and TFF are town.
If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy and Magwald are mafia.
If->then becoming If not 'then', then not 'if':
If either Sepiriel or Vampyr are mafia, TFF is town.
If either Arcadic or Magwald are mafia, Shalako is town.
If either Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, or Vampyr are mafia, Arcadic is town.
If either Shalako or TFF are mafia, Magwald is town.
If either Arcadic or TFF are mafia, Sepiriel is town.
If either Ecophagy or Magwald are town, WwaB is town.
Derived Conclusions:
Arcadic
Town: If Shalako is mafia, Magwald is town.
Mafia: Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Ecophagy
Town: WwaB is town.
Mafia: If WwaB is mafia, Magwald is mafia.
Magwald
Town: WwaB is town. If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic is town.
Mafia: Shalako and TFF are town.
Shalako
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are Town. If Magwald is mafia, TFF is town.
Mafia: Arcadic and Magwald are town.
Sepiriel
Town: If TFF is mafia, Vampyr is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
TFF
Town: If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic is town. If Magwald is mafia, Shalako is town.
Mafia: Magwald, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
WwaB
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic is town; Magwald and Ecophagy are mafia.
Vampyr
Town: If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and WwaB are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
=======================================
The only way you can argue with one of the derived conclusions is if you disagree with one of the base premises because everything is a logical derivation from those premises.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
I disagree with the premise that "If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy and Magwald are mafia." Your assumption that a mafia doc would only protect mafia is incorrect.
I disagree with the premise that "If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy and Magwald are mafia." Your assumption that a mafia doc would only protect mafia is incorrect.
The other premises seem solid though.
Considering the reputation of both you and Magwald in this game, I beg to differ. I don't see a mafia doc protecting either of you if you're town.
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
Translated form of earlier post (for simplicity's sake, any possible SK is not accounted for with the logic, it's either mafia or not mafia):
Base Premises:
If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel and Vampyr are town.
If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic and Magwald are town.
If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
If Magwald is mafia, Shalako and star #8 (which we now know to be TFF) are town.
If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic and TFF are town. If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy and Magwald are mafia.
If->then becoming If not 'then', then not 'if':
If either Sepiriel or Vampyr are mafia, TFF is town.
If either Arcadic or Magwald are mafia, Shalako is town.
If either Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, or Vampyr are mafia, Arcadic is town.
If either Shalako or TFF are mafia, Magwald is town.
If either Arcadic or TFF are mafia, Sepiriel is town.
If either Ecophagy or Magwald are town, WwaB is town.
Derived Conclusions:
Arcadic
Town: If Shalako is mafia, Magwald is town.
Mafia: Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Ecophagy
Town: WwaB is town.
Mafia: If WwaB is mafia, Magwald is mafia.
Magwald
Town: WwaB is town. If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic is town.
Mafia: Shalako and TFF are town.
Shalako
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are Town. If Magwald is mafia, TFF is town.
Mafia: Arcadic and Magwald are town.
Sepiriel
Town: If TFF is mafia, Vampyr is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
TFF
Town: If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic is town. If Magwald is mafia, Shalako is town.
Mafia: Magwald, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
WwaB
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic is town; Magwald and Ecophagy are mafia.
Vampyr
Town: If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and WwaB are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
=======================================
The only way you can argue with one of the derived conclusions is if you disagree with one of the base premises because everything is a logical derivation from those premises.
I did notice that I missed one thing under Magwald Mafia: If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy is mafia. (Which would be promptly crossed out if you disagree with the WwaB premise).
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
I protected Eco N2. I was told my action went through however I was not told if it did anything. Now what I want to know is, is Eco vulnerable? My thought trail continues from there and I will post with my thoughts after he responds.
Oh yes, we need to direct this. If Arcadic intends to use his Vig shot tonight too, I propose that RafK should shoot Arcadic, to minimize potential townies deaths and to gank Arcadic if he's lying.
This assumes we want Arcadic to burn himself. I never like these suicide-bomber things, way too easy to lose two townies for nothing.
"Horrible claim, why wouldn't you use your reveal ability on AI, considering his claim was about as convenient as possible. I see you're going down the same path as DKD and claiming to be RafK's vig counterpart. Why wouldn't you counterclaim DKD yesterday when he claimed to be the other vig?"
"Are you being dense on purpose? Maybe giving me vulnerability status? Keep in mind that the scum thought I was a cop at the time when that ability was used on me."
Very fair point. I don't see why Axelrod insists that exposing Mag's name to the thread and giving him vulnerability, when he was a cop claiming a scum investigation (and had a "I'm a miller" response which seemed to confirm him as a cop), was a townie thing to do.
Also, scum do not have an every-other-day extra kill. No way.
Assuming TFF has one. He's only claimed responsibility for one kill and he doesn't need to produce another one (or an excuse to not have killed someone) until night 5.
Raf: anything in your role that has a qualifier like TFF has described (If he kills 2 vulnerable people, he can choose not to use his spell)
1) He was already being lynched
2) If he somehow didn't get lynched, I would have smashed him to pieces.
Reasonable save for Magwald's note that you opposed the DKD lynch for a while. I know you then replied to say that you changed wagons when he claimed, in lieu of a counterclaim- I need to look at the timing of that. If so it would also provide an alternate explanation for your change of wagon there (albeit not why you were attacking Magwald before that).
But ultimately, it was a mislynch, and his vote looked suspect afterwards. -I needed to kill someone and I agreed with some of the comments made about him at the end of that day.
True, but someone killed WoD. If it wasn't TFF there's no excuse now for not counterclaiming. Without a counterclaim, either TFF is truthful (town) or had a one-shot bonus kill (scum).
Do we have anything left which can verify what TFF's stuff does?
[quote=atlseal;/comments/10714542]combined with TFF's reaction to being targeted by Sepiriel and Vampyr making sense,
I think it would be helpful for RafK to full claim (or least the relevant bits) so we can compare his and TFF's claim - If they are actually vigs who shot on alternating nights, I would expect some symmetry.
Perhaps.
TFF should claim his kill device first, though. If I claim mine first it's not exactly hard for him to say "yeah, mine's just like that" is it?
That means that you were not the target of a nightkill or vig action on n2.
Is that really all you had to say? That sounds like stating the obvious, not continuing your train of though...
Quote from WWaB »
Off of magwald:
If shalako is mafia, arcadic is town.
Therefore we know that if arcadic is town then shalako is mafia.
Does this actually work logically? Or is it just circular reasoning?
This is an incorrect conclusion. Basically, if A implies B, it is not (necessarily) also true that B implies A, (where A and B are any logical predicates you care to name.) I could explain more about predicate logic, but it's not really worth it.
This assumes we want Arcadic to burn himself. I never like these suicide-bomber things, way too easy to lose two townies for nothing.
I believe Arcadic volunteered it. Given that he's a scum candidate and claims to still be able to post after death, suicide-bombing seems like a good play.
Quote from Raf »
TFF should claim his kill device first, though. If I claim mine first it's not exactly hard for him to say "yeah, mine's just like that" is it?
Of course. But, to confirm, are you prepared to claim once TFF has claimed to your satisfaction?
Did you honestly believe that post was at all readable?
If you have mathematical proof/notation background, yes. Anyway, I translated it.
I notice that I am not featured in those logic chains at all, either.
Because there's no evidence in the action map to qualify you as town or mafia according to the other players actions. If it matters, I'm near positive you're town.
Would his reaction be different as scum, though?
It just means he knew what he was going to claim before he was forced to. Lends credence to the truth.
@WwaB: Ecophagy is correct about the logic
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
[QUOTE=Axelrod;/comments/10714527]
What if, come Night 1, nothing had happened? What then? What was the "plan" Shak? to come back into the thread and say "Hay guys, remember where I told you it was worth it and to trust me? Forget all that, totally not worth it...."
Yep, maybe post a picture of a cute kitten.
This guy also claimed at least semi-untargetable, which makes me wary as well.
Because?
Day 2 stuff I'm hoping will be more revealing as more things get claimed. So please no lynching yet. I might (or might not) have something to claim myself before the end....
It was contingent on whether or not you were vulnerable. My thoughts went something like this: If I was correct and protected Eco (thus gaining vulnerabilty) than automatically the scum would know that there is a doc in the house. This would force them to wait on a certain someone going (arc) going boom on the off chance the doc picked the same someone. From there all they have to do is confirm who the doc is, kill the doc, and then he can go boom. This thought train is also contingent on arcadic being scum, although he isn't necessarily scum I believe his plays to be the most malicious in game at the moment.
It was contingent on whether or not you were vulnerable. My thoughts went something like this: If I was correct and protected Eco (thus gaining vulnerabilty) than automatically the scum would know that there is a doc in the house. This would force them to wait on a certain someone going (arc) going boom on the off chance the doc picked the same someone. From there all they have to do is confirm who the doc is, kill the doc, and then he can go boom. This thought train is also contingent on arcadic being scum, although he isn't necessarily scum I believe his plays to be the most malicious in game at the moment.
Isn't this point rendered totally moot by the fact that you claimed Doc?
I'm going cross-eyed reading this thread. Finished Day 2 and my notes definitely start to slack off towards the end. There are a few points I'm going to make eventually, but for now I'll just say that of the living people, this is how I'm feeling them:
Pretty Strong Town:
(me) Arcadic - I thought his Day 2 stuff was very strong. Ecophagy -I'm not sure he's had a post I really disagreed with, so if he's scum, bravo and we are going to lose. Magwald - He's had plenty of posts I've disagreed with, but the scenarios in which he's scum seem remote in the extreme. Sepiriel - He's a the bottom of this group, but all his posts have this earnestness which I'm not feeling he's faking. Early spat with Eco. seems too bizarre to have come from a scum. What I remember of his claiming seems pretty townish also, but haven't finished that review yet.
Middle Group:
Wolf with a Bass (He's probably at the top of this group, and I like the Doc claim okay, though I have a question or two still) RafaelK - scum-master so can never really feel 100%. The every-other-day vig. thing seems to be in his favor, esp if he demonstrates it tonight. atlseal - I have a rather large question for him, but not yet.
The Enigma:
Shalako - You are going to have to claim your items pretty soon. I feel like I could be being snowed by a playstyle that just rubs me as Townish, when he hasn't actually done much Town and instead has actively misled.
The Rest:
Vampyr RobRoy TheFooFish
I haven't done a flow chart. I haven't gotten to all the claims. I have in my notes a few people that I became convinced would not be on the same scum team.
atlseal + Raf
Shalako + WWaB
Vamp + WWaB
I don't even remember how I got to those conclusions atm, but there they are.
We are looking for 2-3 more Mafia + a possible SK. If there is a SK it might just be 2 Mafia left. No SK and there's almost certainly 3. 3 Mafia + a SK is a worst case and a lot of scum for a 21 person game, but certainly within the realms of possibility.
Day 3 awaits, and I'm hoping maybe the remaining claims will help me reach some more definite conclusions.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Shalako - You are going to have to claim your items pretty soon. I feel like I could be being snowed by a playstyle that just rubs me as Townish, when he hasn't actually done much Town and instead has actively misled.
Sure.
I`m untargetable due to my item.(Mandate of Heaven)
It`s the physical manifestation of the favor of Heavens upon me.
I believe Arcadic volunteered it. Given that he's a scum candidate and claims to still be able to post after death, suicide-bombing seems like a good play.
Of course, but i'm not going to do it without consent of the town. I do feel the time is right. Of course, everyone should make their thoughts public over me shooting someone tonight so i can make a correct desision. We should also decide who the comp vig should shoot at, a target or Shalako to nullify it.
I misread WWAB's claim, he apparently only makes the vulnerable if they are actually target of a kill. Still and odd role, but i'll have to come back to it.
@Atlseal, do you have a post restricition the forces you to flavor and math game? I really don't see the point in all this work when its hardly reliable.
@Atlseal, do you have a post restricition the forces you to flavor and math game? I really don't see the point in all this work when its hardly reliable.
Unvote, Vote: Arcadic
Hate flavor gaming, fine. Math gaming? That was basic logic, nothing more. In regards to the logic, what are you arguing with?
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If you're town and I'm mafia, you've already lost. You just don't know it yet.
Apart from item 4 this is a very decent summary of the TFF case. I am not finished my re-read but my suspicions against TFF and RobRoy have not been greatly shifted. Individually, each part of it is not damning but as an accumulation it is strong. Part 3a is the best point, since the "Magwald bussed his scum buddy" wagon was so very bad.
While my name falls within the first list ("non-scummy", if you will), this is a dangerous game to play. Few if any mods will play this completely straight. Even then, who's to say "The Pirate King" is necessarily a scummier name than "The Keeper of Secrets"?
Magwald's name claim just makes it an even worse point.
This is true: so is it TFF distancing from a scum buddy?
I find it hard to read Sepiriel, it's the "bad vs scummy" thing again.
This comes across as very insincere.
As someone has pointed out already, the previous night someone gave me the Lidless Eye, and last night it left me and apparently ended up on you. Clearly nothing to do with the vote ability.
Guess so, yeah.
- I have an item which compulsory vigs on even nights. I targeted DKD on night 2 and it failed (we now know this is because he was "jailed"). It comes up again tonight.
- I have a follower who protects me from one kill attempt and then becomes exhausted. It was exhausted on night 2, presumably due to one of the missing kills (although it is not completely impossible I was targeted by an ability which exhausts followers, it seems unlikely).
- On night 2, I received an item called the Lidless Eye which apparently did nothing. On night 3 that item vanished from my possession (and apparently ended up with WWAB).
Honestly now? there is more against me than arcadic?????
The most you have on me is this stupid flavor thing, which is just as easily explained for towns.
Its not really interesting so much as sad, as for why no vote it would be no more than an OMGUS, honestly up until the recent push i only had the possibility of him as scum because i thought infinis to be scum (which is why he was my target yesterday), so with his reveal as town i started this day with him as likely town, but this weak wagon he is picking up makes me question his position.
/barn
@Axel:
I am a roleblocker, have 1 spell, 1 artifact and 2 followers.
N1: I targeted desCoures, used no followers
N2: I targeted DKD, used the Toad which would have repeated the roleblock on dkd for the rest of the game or until his death regardless of whether the follower became discarded or i died. I also received the Artifact Stones of Communion (or Communion Stones).
N3: I targeted TFF, used no followers.
I still have one lovely follower which i cradle and pet as i weave my hex each night and whose abilities i have not revealed.
Both the Toad and the Undisclosed Follower are transferable (but the toad is exhausted and cannot be transfered anymore as a result)
I feel that flavour gaming is really not going to get us anywhere - No mod (and certainly not one as good as Dagger) is going to make his game breakable by a mass name claim. So we should step back from arbitrary role analysis and focus on behaviour.
I am not currently vulnerable.
Oh yes, we need to direct this. If Arcadic intends to use his Vig shot tonight too, I propose that RafK should shoot Arcadic, to minimize potential townies deaths and to gank Aracdic if he's lying.
Why no vote then?
As I said, they're on the last page. In addition to those gems brought up by Magwald and me, your abilities and night targets leave much to be desired.
Unvote, Vote: TheFooFish
I approve of this plan. I'd like a vig chain of:
RafK -> Arcadic -> RobRoy
I've re-read Day 1 (again). There were a few scattered claims and hints of claims, but the bigger stuff comes later, I know. I will say that the closest thing I found to an out-and-out lie seemed to come from Shakalako. He gave 2 "hints" that his posting spree had a purpose early on, and one of those was more promise than hint.
In
Post #606
He says there is a purpose to his posting and to "trust him."
Later, in Post #622
he says both this:
and this:
These are in response to Vamp. complaining about his spamming.
So, I don't think these posts fit with his claim. His claim is that he was spamming up the thread to become highest poster just in the hope that he might get something for it. I do not see how he could be telling people to "trust him" and saying things like "It is worth it" when he supposedly has ZERO information that posting all these posts will get him anything at all.
What if, come Night 1, nothing had happened? What then? What was the "plan" Shak? to come back into the thread and say "Hay guys, remember where I told you it was worth it and to trust me? Forget all that, totally not worth it...."
I'm just not feeling that.
I'm not prepared to call him scum over it just yet - I kind of liked his early posting a lot - but it's making me very wary. I've never played a game with Shak before, so I am not familiar with his style or his ability to carry off posting like he does if scum. I think I'm also more inclined to feel good about people who post a lot and with aggressiveness, which he does, so it could also just be a bad read due to personal bias.
This guy also claimed at least semi-untargetable, which makes me wary as well.
Day 2 stuff I'm hoping will be more revealing as more things get claimed. So please no lynching yet. I might (or might not) have something to claim myself before the end....
Given that:
A = Arcadic
B = atlseal
C = Axelrod
D = Eco
E = Magwald
F = RafK
G = RR
H = Shalako
I = Sepiriel
J = TFF
K = WwaB
L = Vampyr
Base Premises:
!J -> I && L
!H -> A && E
!A -> H && I && K && L
!E -> H && 8
!I -> A && J
!K -> !E && !D
If->then becoming If not 'then', then not 'if':
!I || !L -> J
!A || !E -> H
!H || !I || !K || !L -> A
!H || !8 -> E
!A || !J -> I
E || D -> K
Derived Conclusions:
!A -> H && I && K && L
A -> (!H && E) || H
D -> K
!D -> (!K && !E) || K
!E -> H && 8
E -> K && ((!H && A) || H)
!H -> A && E
H -> ((!A && I && K && L) || A) && ((!E && 8) || E)
!I -> A && J
I -> ((!J && L) || J) && ((!A && H && K && L) || A)
!J -> I && L
J -> (!I && A) || I
!K -> A && !E && !D
K -> (!A && H && I && L) || A
!L -> A && J
L -> ((!J && I) || J) && ((!A && H && I && K) || A)
==========
How to read the above (examples):
- The first base premise states that "If TFF is mafia, then Sepiriel and Vampyr are town"
- The first If->then reversal states that "If either Sepiriel or Vampyr are mafia, TFF is town"
- The first derived conclusion states that "If Arcadic is mafia, all of Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town"
I'll do that when I get home today. The premises are based upon players' targeting choices and game events.
Well, you're wrong.
And I'm guessing you're both wrong here as well. The flavor isn't based on any source material, so it's not like there are a limited number of claims. It would only be breakable by name claim if the scum are stupid enough to claim things like "Pirate King," which they were obviously smart enough to avoid doing. At least, the first caught scum avoided doing it. Our second scum just claimed his name, as scummy as it was. But, why? What changed? -The name reveal ability happened in between, which probably scared them. I'll properly case sep when I get a chance, but in the meantime, he's a RBer with a title that matches a dead scum.
Anyway, there's enough votes and other suspicion towards me that I'll claim here:
I'm the First Arcanist. I'm like the president of wizards, it's a very respected and prestigious position.
I have an Artifact called Seven Jewels. It's an ornate magic ring made with reality alloy. I wear it because, while I'm a good wizard, I'm not a natural born leader and it motivates me. -It's effect is to give me vulnerability status if I ever place a vote that isn't the first or last on a player.
I also have a spell called Quencher. I can and must use it to violently smash people with powerful magics. -It's effect is I must target a player every odd numbered night and that player will die. If I kill two vulnerable players with it, I can choose to not use it.
I also had a spell called Interpretation, which is now exhausted. It's a powerful and painful magic that extracts a person's true nature. -It's effect is to reveal a player's title in thread and it makes that player vulnerable.
N1 I killed WoD, N3 I tried to kill RR, was redirected to Vampyr despite my very specific warnings to him to not do that very thing which nearly killed us both, but I was luckily RBed. Day 2, I interpreted mag (which admittedly wasn't the best use of the item, but I had my reasons, which I explained during the discussion at that time). If I had that to take back, I would; it was a gut reaction and I didn't think it through. Although, it did have the one benefit of scaring the scum into claiming their real titles for fear of being caught lying.
Anyway, I think it was like a one shot cop ability, with mag being a miller in that sense. And either my info ability was completely useless, or sep is scum.
This claim on it's face does not have obvious holes. I dislike a lot the decision to vig. WoD. Why? It can't be because he voted to lynch jskura, right? Considering you were one of the biggest jskura lynch pushers.
I've generally felt, however, that whoever used their ability on Magwald to reveal his name in the thread was probably more Town than not. Because I don't see what scum would have been hoping to achieve there.
"Horrible claim, why wouldn't you use your reveal ability on AI, considering his claim was about as convenient as possible. I see you're going down the same path as DKD and claiming to be RafK's vig counterpart. Why wouldn't you counterclaim DKD yesterday when he claimed to be the other vig?"
"Are you being dense on purpose? Maybe giving me vulnerability status? Keep in mind that the scum thought I was a cop at the time when that ability was used on me."
True TFF hasn't demonstrated more than one kill yet, but it's something to consider.
Raf: anything in your role that has a qualifier like TFF has described (If he kills 2 vulnerable people, he can choose not to use his spell)
This will be looked into.
"You're coming on pretty strong in your defense of TFF. Too strong."
Am I?
Do you disagree with that premise (scum won't have every-other-day vig?)
I don't think I'm "defending" him at all. I am attempting to think it through though. You appear to be dismissing it out of hand.
1) He was already being lynched
2) If he somehow didn't get lynched, I would have smashed him to pieces.
But ultimately, it was a mislynch, and his vote looked suspect afterwards. -I needed to kill someone and I agreed with some of the comments made about him at the end of that day.
"Both bad answers. You were content to sit with him on my wagon up until it was clear that he was being lynched.
It's not like we can ever verify if you planned to vig him last night or not, so that a moot point as well."
"I don't think he's the every-other-day vig. DKD tried to claim the same thing and failed. The scum have only so many viable 'Don't lynch me' claims left, and the fabled RafK vig counterpart is one of them."
"And I'd like to hear why he killed WoD too. If anything, I was the prime target for a kill night 1, considering how hard I fought to convince people that jskura was a townie. This could potentially point to inside information in the mind of a vig. Yet TFF vigged a person on the wagon he was driving. :rolleyes:"
The fact of the matter remains that nobody else has claimed responsability for WoD's death, combined with TFF's reaction to being targeted by Sepiriel and Vampyr making sense, leads me to believe TFF is telling the truth.
"Sure was...convenient...wasn't it? Just like the convenient claims on day 2 and 3. I remain skeptical."
"Though I wouldn't mind hearing some genuine content from RobRoy. He seems to have disappeared."
You mean up until it was clear he was trying to claim to be a vig?
-I wonder why I suddenly got suspicious of him then? hmm...
Because obviously killing the people who were right would have been much smarter than killing the more suspicious people who helped push the mislynch?
"If you saw I was right, why doubt my cop claim and shoot me to make me vulnerable day 2?"
The "it's not transferrable" refers to the vote restriction item, yes? What other item are you talking about here?
My role is one that makes it impossible for the SK to win the game against, and makes it more difficult for the scum team to win against.
Both of these entities would rather see me mislynched. Why, if TFF was among either of those group(s), would he come out and verify me targeted him? Would it not have been better to lie and try to push a mislynch of me and then try to explain it away afterwards?
I'm a bit pressed for time, but I plan on looking back at Arcadic. I know I flavorgamed him, and I really shouldn't. So I want to see what his past posts were like and present him something more than "Ur role name is the suckzors."
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
I didn't believe your claim, it seemed too close to mine and I thought you were making it up. -I was right.
Yes, I was offering to give him my ring if he had a way to take it.
It's obviously breakable with a mass name claim - if the scum don't know not to claim their real names, then they all die. I'm also not sure you can say "the game is not breakable, scum aren't stupid enough to claim their real names" and in the next breath to condemn Sep for...claiming his real name.
Urf. Half of me thinks that another scum wouldn't try claiming the "other half", and WoD was obviously a vig shot - and if no-one else claims responsibility, then you must have shot him. The other half hates the usage of Interpretation - why didn't you use on AI? It's also awkward that you only have one kill to show.
I think it would be helpful for RafK to full claim (or least the relevant bits) so we can compare his and TFF's claim - If they are actually vigs who shot on alternating nights, I would expect some symmetry.
Base Premises:
If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel and Vampyr are town.
If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic and Magwald are town.
If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
If Magwald is mafia, Shalako and star #8 (which we now know to be TFF) are town.
If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic and TFF are town.
If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy and Magwald are mafia.
If->then becoming If not 'then', then not 'if':
If either Sepiriel or Vampyr are mafia, TFF is town.
If either Arcadic or Magwald are mafia, Shalako is town.
If either Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, or Vampyr are mafia, Arcadic is town.
If either Shalako or TFF are mafia, Magwald is town.
If either Arcadic or TFF are mafia, Sepiriel is town.
If either Ecophagy or Magwald are town, WwaB is town.
Derived Conclusions:
Arcadic
Town: If Shalako is mafia, Magwald is town.
Mafia: Shalako, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Ecophagy
Town: WwaB is town.
Mafia: If WwaB is mafia, Magwald is mafia.
Magwald
Town: WwaB is town. If Shalako is mafia, Arcadic is town.
Mafia: Shalako and TFF are town.
Shalako
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Sepiriel, WwaB, and Vampyr are Town. If Magwald is mafia, TFF is town.
Mafia: Arcadic and Magwald are town.
Sepiriel
Town: If TFF is mafia, Vampyr is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, WwaB, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
TFF
Town: If Sepiriel is mafia, Arcadic is town. If Magwald is mafia, Shalako is town.
Mafia: Magwald, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
WwaB
Town: If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and Vampyr are town.
Mafia: Arcadic is town; Magwald and Ecophagy are mafia.
Vampyr
Town: If TFF is mafia, Sepiriel is town. If Arcadic is mafia, Shalako, Sepiriel, and WwaB are town.
Mafia: Arcadic and TFF are town.
=======================================
The only way you can argue with one of the derived conclusions is if you disagree with one of the base premises because everything is a logical derivation from those premises.
The other premises seem solid though.
Considering the reputation of both you and Magwald in this game, I beg to differ. I don't see a mafia doc protecting either of you if you're town.
I did notice that I missed one thing under Magwald Mafia: If WwaB is mafia, Ecophagy is mafia. (Which would be promptly crossed out if you disagree with the WwaB premise).
Sure, but given both of our reputation, why would the mafia doc protect us if we were mafia? It's not like we were prime vig targets.
Wins/Losses/Draws
13/2/1
Wins/Losses/Draws
13/2/1
??? What makes you say that?
You should be making more words about now.
Let's run with that idea
If arcadic is town you can extrapolate more data.
If shalako is mafia, magwald is town.
Off of shally:
If shalako is mafia arcadic and magwald are town.
Off of magwald:
If shalako is mafia, arcadic is town.
Therefore we know that if arcadic is town then shalako is mafia.
Does this actually work logically? Or is it just circular reasoning?
Wins/Losses/Draws
13/2/1
This assumes we want Arcadic to burn himself. I never like these suicide-bomber things, way too easy to lose two townies for nothing.
Still reading.
Did you honestly believe that post was at all readable?
I notice that I am not featured in those logic chains at all, either.
Fair question.
Very fair point. I don't see why Axelrod insists that exposing Mag's name to the thread and giving him vulnerability, when he was a cop claiming a scum investigation (and had a "I'm a miller" response which seemed to confirm him as a cop), was a townie thing to do.
Assuming TFF has one. He's only claimed responsibility for one kill and he doesn't need to produce another one (or an excuse to not have killed someone) until night 5.
No.
Reasonable save for Magwald's note that you opposed the DKD lynch for a while. I know you then replied to say that you changed wagons when he claimed, in lieu of a counterclaim- I need to look at the timing of that. If so it would also provide an alternate explanation for your change of wagon there (albeit not why you were attacking Magwald before that).
OK.
Would his reaction be different as scum, though?
Perhaps.
TFF should claim his kill device first, though. If I claim mine first it's not exactly hard for him to say "yeah, mine's just like that" is it?
Is that really all you had to say? That sounds like stating the obvious, not continuing your train of though...
This is an incorrect conclusion. Basically, if A implies B, it is not (necessarily) also true that B implies A, (where A and B are any logical predicates you care to name.) I could explain more about predicate logic, but it's not really worth it.
I believe Arcadic volunteered it. Given that he's a scum candidate and claims to still be able to post after death, suicide-bombing seems like a good play.
Of course. But, to confirm, are you prepared to claim once TFF has claimed to your satisfaction?
If you have mathematical proof/notation background, yes. Anyway, I translated it.
Because there's no evidence in the action map to qualify you as town or mafia according to the other players actions. If it matters, I'm near positive you're town.
It just means he knew what he was going to claim before he was forced to. Lends credence to the truth.
@WwaB: Ecophagy is correct about the logic
Yep, maybe post a picture of a cute kitten.
Because?
Bum Bum BUM
Could you explain this?
.
[Mafia Stats] Mafia MVP: 1/3 Basic #29,Co-[CCMV]
Wins/Losses/Draws
13/2/1
Isn't this point rendered totally moot by the fact that you claimed Doc?
Pretty Strong Town:
(me)
Arcadic - I thought his Day 2 stuff was very strong.
Ecophagy -I'm not sure he's had a post I really disagreed with, so if he's scum, bravo and we are going to lose.
Magwald - He's had plenty of posts I've disagreed with, but the scenarios in which he's scum seem remote in the extreme.
Sepiriel - He's a the bottom of this group, but all his posts have this earnestness which I'm not feeling he's faking. Early spat with Eco. seems too bizarre to have come from a scum. What I remember of his claiming seems pretty townish also, but haven't finished that review yet.
Middle Group:
Wolf with a Bass (He's probably at the top of this group, and I like the Doc claim okay, though I have a question or two still)
RafaelK - scum-master so can never really feel 100%. The every-other-day vig. thing seems to be in his favor, esp if he demonstrates it tonight.
atlseal - I have a rather large question for him, but not yet.
The Enigma:
Shalako - You are going to have to claim your items pretty soon. I feel like I could be being snowed by a playstyle that just rubs me as Townish, when he hasn't actually done much Town and instead has actively misled.
The Rest:
Vampyr
RobRoy
TheFooFish
I haven't done a flow chart. I haven't gotten to all the claims. I have in my notes a few people that I became convinced would not be on the same scum team.
atlseal + Raf
Shalako + WWaB
Vamp + WWaB
I don't even remember how I got to those conclusions atm, but there they are.
We are looking for 2-3 more Mafia + a possible SK. If there is a SK it might just be 2 Mafia left. No SK and there's almost certainly 3. 3 Mafia + a SK is a worst case and a lot of scum for a 21 person game, but certainly within the realms of possibility.
Day 3 awaits, and I'm hoping maybe the remaining claims will help me reach some more definite conclusions.
Sure.
I`m untargetable due to my item.(Mandate of Heaven)
It`s the physical manifestation of the favor of Heavens upon me.
(had Thousand-Face Servant)
And I have done much
[Mafia Stats] Mafia MVP: 1/3 Basic #29,Co-[CCMV]
Of course, but i'm not going to do it without consent of the town. I do feel the time is right. Of course, everyone should make their thoughts public over me shooting someone tonight so i can make a correct desision. We should also decide who the comp vig should shoot at, a target or Shalako to nullify it.
I misread WWAB's claim, he apparently only makes the vulnerable if they are actually target of a kill. Still and odd role, but i'll have to come back to it.
@Atlseal, do you have a post restricition the forces you to flavor and math game? I really don't see the point in all this work when its hardly reliable.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
Unvote, Vote: Arcadic
Hate flavor gaming, fine. Math gaming? That was basic logic, nothing more. In regards to the logic, what are you arguing with?