Being impatient? You might have already compiled a big list of suspects that you want to pressure. Right now, I just have Infinis and JglGirl on my watch list. The only info I can absolutely trust is what Alfred (Ged) gives us, and that only comes at dusk and dawn.
So me wanting to wait a day/night cycle before nameclaiming is too much to ask? Especially if I think the scum have planned for this?
Most heroes might be willing to charge into danger heedlessly. That's usually why they wind up in a deathtrap that they have to escape from.
Being impatient? You might have already compiled a big list of suspects that you want to pressure. Right now, I just have Infinis and JglGirl on my watch list. The only info I can absolutely trust is what Alfred (Ged) gives us, and that only comes at dusk and dawn.
So me wanting to wait a day/night cycle before nameclaiming is too much to ask? Especially if I think the scum have planned for this?
Most heroes might be willing to charge into danger heedlessly. That's usually why they wind up in a deathtrap that they have to escape from.
If the scum have planned for this, i mean, what good will waiting a day/night cycle do?
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Roja's PM mistake shenangians just feels like hiding in plain sight. Because Captain Marvel and Thunderbolt are the only two characters I know of that are in two different companies.
I already explained my problem here. I told you im not both. I also said that IN my pm it said the wrong company name. Stop trying to make me out to be something im not. Did you not see what I have said about my PM?
Loran, and before you say "scum" as your wonderful answer.. What exactly are you looking for with a name claim? Unless CC was Elastagirl, Cyan had a claim ready for us. Granted I guess the overlap could occur, but like Cubus has already said we would be exposing ourselves. (And in public..)
Also I am not liking Jqlgirl nor Someone simplely for their "OMG No Night kill" first post of the morning talk. FOSJqlgirl, Someone
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I don't think the "OMG good job doc!" comments are a huge tell. I always want to label it as scummy, but I've seen it point to town just as often as scum. Actually, most often it just points to newer players in general, regardless of alignment.
My top two leads right now are Dagger and spot. I need to go back and provide evidence for this, but my recollection is that Dagger never committed to the Cyan wagon despite touting it as valid. I remember him always denoting willingness to lynch either Jql or Cyan, but I don't remember him actually ever joining the wagon. It seems to me he was using Jql as an excuse to avoid it.
As for spot, I just remember his last post at the end of yesterday seemed really scummy in regards to the Cyan wagon. Cyan jumping on him for that post does not affect my opinion there at all. I can easily see it as Cyan distancing right before he goes down as well as making one last attempt to get a townie lynched instead. Don't trust the words of dying scum.
In the same vein, we shouldn't trust anything that relies on information from Cyan regarding the nature of scum claims. Scum lie, especially when they are already caught and have nothing to lose by making blatant lies.
Regarding the newer players, who seem to comprise the entirety of current wagons, I strongly believe Infinis is town. Jql I'm leaning slightly town, and I'm having a very tough time reading Some One. Some of his posts strike me as pro-town and others as really scummy. I'm not interested in joining a wagon on him right now without a compelling case, at any rate.
I think 'Rorschach could be an SK' is a pretty big tell. And I'm not saying that because I'm Rorschach, but I know I'd probably try to cast doubt on a townie's early claim if I were scum.
I don't think the "OMG good job doc!" comments are a huge tell. I always want to label it as scummy, but I've seen it point to town just as often as scum. Actually, most often it just points to newer players in general, regardless of alignment.
Agreed. I can remember having that kind of reaction (and its companion, "OMG so many bodies!") when just starting out myself.
160 - while discussion is on about a possible softclaim, he is the first to propose the "first letter" portion of the softclaim. While Cyan's identity shows that the scum will have to fakeclaim to avoid detection, the manner of his softclaim (duplicating CropCircles') raises the possibility that some or all of the scum have fakeclaims provided. As a result it's hard to tell whether the scum were actually afraid of the softclaim or not. Call this post an interesting null.
294 - the one I've brought up several times already, where Dagger says that he supports a push on Cyan or on Some One. However, he also says that before the wagon forces a claim from Cyan, we should go ahead with the softclaim. This is something that I disagree with, as has also been said.
This post is still the core of my attack on Dagger. We've gone back and forth on it a couple times, and he hasn't posted since my most recent word on it. I maintain that if Cyan was scummy enough to want him to claim, it doesn't make any sense to push the softclaim out there first, unless you're trying to give Cyan more information. I also find it very suspicious that Dagger said that he supported a push against either Cyan or Some One, then failed to follow up against either of them.
553 and several after that - Dagger comes back in after an absence and makes a number of very good posts asking questions and giving opinions. These are a reason why I'm willing to give him some slack, as there are no major inconsistencies that I can see here, and there is a fair bit of content.
706 - this is something I didn't address earlier, but this isn't the way to do a reread of someone who turned up scum. You don't just look at what they said - you look at what others said about them; at who ignored them, or tried to cover for them, or deflect attention to others.
Basically, if it weren't for post 294 and my impression that Dagger was trying to deflect attention from Cyan, I wouldn't have a case against him. He's been contributing in spurts with breaks in between, but his spurts are usually content-heavy. My disagreements with him on soft-claim order are possibly explained away by a philosophical difference, but I am still very suspicious of him diverting attention from Cyan to the soft-claim. Overall I don't have enough of a case to justify going after Dagger right now, but I continue to live in hope.
@Loran: No, I don't think following through with the name claims today is a good idea. Ged incorporated Cyan's false-claim into the lynch scene, which I suppose could be just "flavor", but given someone's comments about the "disguises" (apologies, I can't recall who that was), it's quite possible that was a mod-given false claim. I think we're in a good enough position today that we don't need to press that issue just yet.
I'm going to re-analyze the entire Cyan wagons for hints at who might've been avoiding it subtly, and check to see who Cyan pretty much ignored for day one. If I can find an overlap, I'll likely have my next vote ready.
DYH, what do you think of the "scum being overcritical of their buddies" tell and whether or not it would apply to Cyan. I remember him doing some busing in Warhammer.
Some scum, starting from the knowledge of who else is scum and who is town will be overcritical of their buddies based on the psychology of knowing they are scum, and the fear of having weak or non-existent stances on their buddy. When you already know someone is scum, you know they are lying, and thus you might be more inclined to nitpick and attack them. Likewise, they can also be "too defensive" of townies beyond what makes sense.
I'm thinking specifically in terms of Cyan jumping all over Dagger's back for pressuring me, but then getting off like 20 posts later. I don't remember Cyan ever attacking Andelijah for pressuring me on that same post, despite Andelijah doing it longer (and more nitpickingly). I'm wondering if this was Cyan seeing scum-dagger attacking me and being too critical of the attack because he already knew it was scum attacking town. Cyan's attack on Dagger was clearly faked, at any rate, but I'm not sure if it was "exaggerate the distance" fake or "seed the mislynch" fake. Based on Dagger's lack of commit to the Cyan-wagon, I'm leaning the former.
Tilde, once again, what good would waiting ONE day/night cycle do? Is that what you would suggest?
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Tilde, once again, what good would waiting ONE day/night cycle do?
Well, since you seem insistent with doing the nameclaims today, trying to convince you to wait for more than one day seemed... kinda pointless. I personally like Cubus' suggestion better. I figured one day/night cycle was a reasonable compromise.
We could always re-evaluate whether or not to do the nameclaims Day 3 after we had more mod information.
Answering other people's non-stupid questions, Cubus, = Fai.
Seriously.
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Some One though struck me as scummy in my first read through. Post 356 believe it or not was the thing keeping me from voting him at the time or putting him in my scumlist...it strikes me as genuine wondering about what we're missing about the setup as opposed to his non-genuine other posts. Still, i have like 5 or so -s on his posts and only that one +.
Is it? Rereading Some One now.
Result of reread on Some One: Now that I have read his posts in an uninterrupted flow, I can say with almost certainty that his thought processes indicate a town's mindset, or at the very least a logical progression of thoughts and viewpoints. I haven't seen anything that would indicate a scum mentality (from what I could gather). And thus, I am leaning town on SO.
@loran: Just to clarify, what are these 5 or so "-"s that you have managed to pick out from SO's posts from your first read through?
@CC: Feel free to chip in since you are advocating a wagon on SO, yes?
I've obviously got a bunch of stuff to address here, but will lead off by saying that I was roleblocked last night. I'm a little unhappy with how that reflects on me when combined with the lack of a kill last night, but there it is.
Now that we are on the topic, I would like to ask this of the town: Anyone else was role-blocked last night?
This isn't rocket science. You thought Cyan was scummy. Once you know you want a claim from someone who's acting scummy, you don't give them more information first - you get them to claim first, before moving on to other people. This line of logic doesn't require me to have special knowledge - it just requires me to think about it.
Okay, we think differently. Anyone who wants to research this line of arguments just have to look over our posts on this.
Try this: what motivation do you think I had for posting the quote from Rorschach that I did in that post? Can you think of a situation where scum would do that? How about townie?
I am saying I don't really see why a townie would do that. As for scum, here:
I don't understand your intention in clarifying Cubus' rolename? What exactly did you expect to hear? A green light from the town to go after Cubus? It's like you are deliberately speculating openly about his rolename in order to gauge how the town would react to it?
I mentioned as a scum, you might be trying to fish info on the town's role names in an attempt to correlate with what you have on your own team's role names, on Day 1 when the scums are at their darkest along with the town.
So a person known for long analytical posts makes this kind of mistake, after stating he had time to read. Also nice cover at the end.
Mistake? I have had that list for ages, since right at the beginning of Day 1 when we were discussing soft claims. The list certainly wasn't generated on the spot by going through a reread. Which was why I even bothered to ask people's opinions or corrections on it.
I guess someone did correct Dagger. And now Cubus resurrects this mistake. So either both Dagger and Cubus missed my pro soft claim stance AND ced's correction OR they are trying ever so subtly to start a wagon on a townie. Lucky for me Cubus is giving me "a pass today".
I didn't even take a single step in your direction, based on the list itself. I took note of Ced's correction by adding "(pro?)" besides your name in my personal list, to be checked at a later date when I actually bothered to. But reposting the list with that correction seemed like such a waste when it wasn't really that significant anyway. The point I posted the list was to gauge reactions (or lack thereof) on it. And if you were so concerned on it, you would have spoken up on it right on Day 1 after I have posted the list instead of waiting till Cubus hounded you on it on Day 2.
loran has made a strong enough case for my innocence, and yet you do not respond to it in any meaningful way. @loran Thanks for the "He's so useless, he must be town" defense.
I beg to differ. That is not a strong enough case for your innocence. It's merely a good point in trying to judge your alignment.
Unfortunately that wrong post is now being referenced as the be all end all list. Dagger as town and creator of the list should have reposted it with the correct information since he did ask and cover himself with the last line.
You are placing a lot of importance on said list. No one bothered reposting it, as per say the list of soft claims, because no one placed a lot of importance on it. Cubus used the list as an initiator of his scum-hunting, and I might as well, but to use it as part of a case is incomprehensible. Do you think being listed as someone who was against soft claims is a condemnation? If that was the case, why didn't you go after the rest of the people on that list since you judged it to be such a great sin?
Wow, way to spin out of control there. I'm sorry the whole world isn't solely focused on answering your questions. And if your question to Loran is as irrelevant as the one you asked me, who could blame him? But how would I know, you didn't restate the question. Again.
But it should. Because I'll keep bugging if I didn't receive an answer. And if I have to bug long enough, it raises alarms in my head.
Missed this earlier, exactly what question are you...talking about? Mind you i may have missed something, your posts have constantly been large recaps that its easy to miss something, but i do remember responding to you in your last post...so i'm not sure what question you have been repeating...like you claim.
EBWODP: Some One, how many times did you have to edit this post before you posted it? In other words, how many times did you write something, delete it and rephrase yourself before coming up with the above paragraph. An estimate would be fine, but try to be exact.
How exactly did you know that? And how is it relevant?
I remember him always denoting willingness to lynch either Jql or Cyan, but I don't remember him actually ever joining the wagon. It seems to me he was using Jql as an excuse to avoid it.
Cyan was on claiming range going to lynching range. Adding my vote at that time would serve nothing except to say "Hey, I was on the wagon!" when discussion was still ongoing. I didn't vote for Jql at that time because, what was the point? Cyan was already going to swing. And I was arguing simultaneously with multiple people at the same time, so while Jql was one of them, she's hardly the only one. You'll also note our philosophy is different. While you were content because someone was ready to swing, I preferred to continue scum-hunting.
This post is still the core of my attack on Dagger. We've gone back and forth on it a couple times, and he hasn't posted since my most recent word on it. I maintain that if Cyan was scummy enough to want him to claim, it doesn't make any sense to push the softclaim out there first, unless you're trying to give Cyan more information. I also find it very suspicious that Dagger said that he supported a push against either Cyan or Some One, then failed to follow up against either of them.
We have indeed gone back and forth over them a couple of time. My position stays the same. Anyone wishing to reference them could do so.
706 - this is something I didn't address earlier, but this isn't the way to do a reread of someone who turned up scum. You don't just look at what they said - you look at what others said about them; at who ignored them, or tried to cover for them, or deflect attention to others.
That is how I do a reread of anyone who turned up dead. What you are referring to is what I term a full reread, not a player-specific reread. I rarely do that unless it's near the endgame and I have a need to refresh my memory, or when I replace in.
DYH, what do you think of the "scum being overcritical of their buddies" tell and whether or not it would apply to Cyan. I remember him doing some busing in Warhammer.
Some scum, starting from the knowledge of who else is scum and who is town will be overcritical of their buddies based on the psychology of knowing they are scum, and the fear of having weak or non-existent stances on their buddy. When you already know someone is scum, you know they are lying, and thus you might be more inclined to nitpick and attack them. Likewise, they can also be "too defensive" of townies beyond what makes sense.
I'm thinking specifically in terms of Cyan jumping all over Dagger's back for pressuring me, but then getting off like 20 posts later. I don't remember Cyan ever attacking Andelijah for pressuring me on that same post, despite Andelijah doing it longer (and more nitpickingly). I'm wondering if this was Cyan seeing scum-dagger attacking me and being too critical of the attack because he already knew it was scum attacking town. Cyan's attack on Dagger was clearly faked, at any rate, but I'm not sure if it was "exaggerate the distance" fake or "seed the mislynch" fake. Based on Dagger's lack of commit to the Cyan-wagon, I'm leaning the former.
That's a good psychology reasoning there. I suppose the only way we (excluding me) will ever know the truth is over my dead body, eh?
Vote: Dagger. The thought had crossed my mind of a game wide fog, but a townie doesn't need to know. Also, fishing in the same sentence.
Game wide fog? Fishing? What? Where?
On Infinis: I believed Infinis to be town, judging from my sole experience of playing with him in Battle Royale. It's good that he's more participatory on Day 2 and I would suggest that we give him a few more game days to further analyze his behavior. Suffice to say, he's not very experienced and I don't really see an inexperienced scum going the way he is going right now in this game. On this note, I would like to ask whether Infinis has ever played as scum before in mafia and the comments on that play?
My opinion changed. It's as simple as that. Just because I fear a day 1 mislynch (as everyone should), it doesn't mean we should be paralyzed by that fear and not use the tools of the game to try to make everyone participate at a reasonable level.
And honestly, if Numegil is town and he was to be lynched, I'd rather lose an inactive town player like him than an active one like Cyan (if he's town) or yourself (if you're town).
I would have thought that if your opinion was really changed, you wouldn't have added in the bit about "I fear a day 1 mislynch (as everyone should)" to support your previous position. Also, I find it disturbing you would agree to a dead townie, inactive or no. In addition, I find it indicative that you would indirectly cite Cyan as an active town and then list me as the other one (to warn me off?).
I beg to differ. That is not a strong enough case for your innocence. It's merely a good point in trying to judge your alignment.
You are placing a lot of importance on said list. No one bothered reposting it, as per say the list of soft claims, because no one placed a lot of importance on it. Cubus used the list as an initiator of his scum-hunting, and I might as well, but to use it as part of a case is incomprehensible. Do you think being listed as someone who was against soft claims is a condemnation? If that was the case, why didn't you go after the rest of the people on that list since you judged it to be such a great sin?...
I believe you are asking me a question you know the answer to. Why did you create the list at all if you did not think it had validity towards scum hunting?
No one needed to repost the list if the correction was missed (as Cubus claims he did). The damage gets done my name gets tarnished by being on the anti-soft claim list. The idea behind that being that some scum MUST be on the list because they have something to hide. This is not paranoia, Cubus is beginning his scum hunt off your list. If my name was removed when ced corrected it Cubus would not have mentionned me. I am already embroiled with others over the usefulness of my theories. And now I am dragged into Cubus' scum hunt and now likely scum in many players mind because of a simple error from an analyst like Dagger?
However I have to thank you Dagger. I went back to find reposts of the list and if anyone else had used it for scum hunting when I came across this series
I think I see where Infinis might be going. The character I had thought of when CC soft-claimed (the "E/Female/Other" role) fits into my working theory about the game setup, but at the moment it's just that... a theory. It'll probably be at least day 2 before I'd consider suggesting it.
Fact: Ged provided us each of us a link regarding our character in our PM's.
Supposition based on that - Each of us likely have some sort of Wikipedia entry.
Fact: Infinis publicly theorized that we were all sidekicks, presumably solely based on his role PM and what he thought Cubus' role was.
Supposition based on that - All the information given so far (the opening scene, Cubus' claim of Rorschach, my own role) has indicated that we are all characters from comic books/graphic novels and the like, therefore if Infinis is a sidekick, most likely he would be on that list of comic book sidekicks. The two listed don't fit his soft claim, and I personally can't think of one that would.
Result is that something about Infinis is wrong in my opinion and that's vote-worthy.
Fact:
Quite a flip flop
I'm scum because you dont like my theory and my soft claim doesn't fit wikipedia, which is your theory. Again the poor rationale has been pointed out to you and yet you persist.
Bad Horse doesn't have a wiki entry and is only mentioned via Dr. Horrible's sing a long blog.
I'm amused that [Shalako], of all people, are talking about terrible reasoning. "Hey, PF's RVS daykill must be serious, therefore I should shoot him to prove that I have a daykill!"
I believe you are asking me a question you know the answer to. Why did you create the list at all if you did not think it had validity towards scum hunting?
No one needed to repost the list if the correction was missed (as Cubus claims he did). The damage gets done my name gets tarnished by being on the anti-soft claim list. The idea behind that being that some scum MUST be on the list because they have something to hide. This is not paranoia, Cubus is beginning his scum hunt off your list. If my name was removed when ced corrected it Cubus would not have mentionned me. I am already embroiled with others over the usefulness of my theories. And now I am dragged into Cubus' scum hunt and now likely scum in many players mind because of a simple error from an analyst like Dagger?
However I have to thank you Dagger. I went back to find reposts of the list and if anyone else had used it for scum hunting when I came across this series
The list exists because I believe it could offer leads in where to focus my attention on. A stepping stone, so to speak, when I am at a loss of where to go further. The reason I posted the list was to see people's reactions (or lack thereof) to it. The list cannot be used as the basis for a case, because like soft claims, nothing concrete could be gained out of it without outside info not inherent within the list itself. You claimed that your name gets tarnished by being on the list, but does it really? Who went after you based on that? Even Cubus used the list merely as a basis on where to start looking, and then did he snapped after everyone on that list? He did not. He picked out those he believed cleared and then removed them from it.
If what you claimed is true in that everyone is condemned merely by being on the list, then why the heck would Cubus cleared people out of said list? I could easily just as used the player list as my starting point and start damning people on it using your logic: That there MUST be some scums in the player list. That is paranoia on your part. No one mentioned you in anything nor even brought you up as a suspect merely based on the list. We are currently having this discussion because you yourself brought it up by lashing out at others. So, by all means, tell me who else is hunting scums via my list.
And seriously, the energy spent on gaming the mod via theories is much better spent digging out scums.
Also, I am not a God-Analyst. If I am, I don't need the Town. I can just single-handedly pick out all the scums with my eyes closed and randomly hammering on the keyboard. There is a reason why I am bouncing my ideas and suspicions within the thread.
Yeah, it seems so reasonable to ask the town if anyone else was roleblocked. Cause, what are the odds, right? Maybe there was some kind of a ability dampener Shaman style. And then no one would have had any idea whether the roleblocks, docs, whatever, worked or not. And you wouldn't have to worry about forcing a distance or carefully playing around a possible human hand grenade. And also... possible power role exposed. I am enthralled by all the possible positive aspects here.
Yeah, it seems so reasonable to ask the town if anyone else was roleblocked. Cause, what are the odds, right? Maybe there was some kind of a ability dampener Shaman style. And then no one would have had any idea whether the roleblocks, docs, whatever, worked or not. And you wouldn't have to worry about forcing a distance or carefully playing around a possible human hand grenade. And also... possible power role exposed. I am enthralled by all the possible positive aspects here.
I have never played nor read Shaman Mafia, so I have no idea what you are talking about.
As for the roleblock thing, I am trying to confirm the existence of another roleblocker. A confirmation of that would mean two roleblockers, most likely one on the town's side. Really, it's either RR really was roleblocked (partially clearing him) or he was making a gambit there. Knowing whether someone else was roleblocked would narrow the possibilities down. How would that actually dig out a power role?
Vote: Dagger. The thought had crossed my mind of a game wide fog, but a townie doesn't need to know. Also, fishing in the same sentence.
Actually, going through this sentence again, why would you immediately assume a game wide fog? I am assuming you are speaking about a mass roleblock here. I immediately thought it was a normal roleblock and just assumed everyone thought the same thing. Maybe your entire team was roleblocked?
It would dig out a power role because somebody has to raise their hand and say, "I got role blocked."
Why would assume a game wide fog? Simplest explanation is best. And I've seen them before. So naturally. From my perspective, it's seeming pretty unlikely that you wouldn't have run into something similar.
As for your motives, best case scenario, confirming a second roleblocker would do is set up a 50/50 WIFOM, assuming nobody made a stupid assumption about what happened in the night. That isn't positive either.
I'm scum because you dont like my theory and my soft claim doesn't fit wikipedia, which is your theory. Again the poor rationale has been pointed out to you and yet you persist.
Bad Horse doesn't have a wiki entry and is only mentioned via Dr. Horrible's sing a long blog. Unvote. Vote Tilde
I wonder, is that a post you'd get from "OMGUS-Man" or "WIFOM-Man"?
The reason I'm voting for you right now is that you used that theory of yours to try and fish for information. (see post #453) Incomplete or ill-conceived theories are fine to propose, especially in day 1. (Lord knows I've done my share)
But when they have a scummy motive behind them, that's worth paying attention to.
How exactly did you know that? And how is it relevant?
.
Read the post and tell me you thought that was a straight stream of consciousness. As for how is it relevant, maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
Can't truly explain right now, and shouldn't really take the time to do so instead of studying.
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It would dig out a power role because somebody has to raise their hand and say, "I got role blocked."
Why would assume a game wide fog? Simplest explanation is best. And I've seen them before. So naturally. From my perspective, it's seeming pretty unlikely that you wouldn't have run into something similar.
As for your motives, best case scenario, confirming a second roleblocker would do is set up a 50/50 WIFOM, assuming nobody made a stupid assumption about what happened in the night. That isn't positive either.
Ah, and what has that to do with power role? Vanilla can get roleblocked as well, not just power role. Claiming to be roleblocked doesn't really indicate anything about own's role.
Also, I was not questioning why you talked about a game wide fog. I was questioning why you would immediately assume that over a normal roleblock? Even if you have seen it before, when someone talked about being roleblocked, one doesn't automatically assume that over the standard one.
That 50/50 WIFOM only applies when we have two claimed roleblockers, and even then the numbers can be shifted in either direction by analysis of target's rationale. Two people claiming being roleblocked only confirms the existence of two roleblockers, and careful analysis of target's rationale can determine which is the scums' origin.
Read the post and tell me you thought that was a straight stream of consciousness. As for how is it relevant, maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
Can't truly explain right now, and shouldn't really take the time to do so instead of studying.
Sure, we can continue this after your exams. Maybe then, you can expound on your rationale on this, and we can discuss about Some One, which you didn't mention here.
It's right there! Simplest explanation best. You even quoted it.
I've got a plan. Let's base our decisions on play analysis and through setup speculation based WIFOM out the window. Why isn't that option on the table?
It's right there! Simplest explanation best. You even quoted it.
I've got a plan. Let's base our decisions on play analysis and through setup speculation based WIFOM out the window. Why isn't that option on the table?
Why not? Someone did something to me last night and I received the entire juicy flavor of it. That invalidates your entire point, doesn't it?
Besides, I have done my fair share of play analysis. Maybe you would like to contribute?
I'll also note that you did not call out others when they made "setup speculation based WIFOM" but protested about it when it concerned you.
Again with the useless and wrong theories. Cubus's claimed character is sourced in a graphic novel (though a film has been made, yes). And my character is sourced in none of those things. Aside from plain-sight lurking, what exactly are you trying to accomplish with these useless theories?
I fully agree with you about this. Nothing disguised as theories usually make me suspicious.
If you disagree with the theory so be it, but to accuse me of plain sight lurking when I'm trying to see if we will have leverage against scum in the later game is just being belligerent for a "hero".
Laziness I guess I'll buy it. TMT replaces Cubus on my scumlist.
You can't gain leverage without information, and we have very little. This is really the sort of theory you throw out there after the information is public. A letter and a vague "other" doesn't really qualify as information here.
The last part is also weird. A lot of players don't parade their scumlist so...publicly.
If the scum have planned for this, i mean, what good will waiting a day/night cycle do?
I have the same question. I think it comes down to the result - the people who want to wait seem to think that they get more value out of getting a "true" claim from the scum - they want to take out other options so they are only safely left to claim what is in their PM. The people who prefer name claims now (including me) think that the town gets more value out of a conflcting claim.
Some nameclaims might seem transparent, especially when you come out and say "based on my name, its pretty obvious what I am" I'd prefer a nameclaim today, but not if some ridiculous number of people (over half) strongly feel their name would give away too much (mine does not, so I don't have much to work with - and the names we have so far are ambiguous role-wise
I'm more of a gutfeeling, "that doesn't read right" type of player than the uber-analytical "A affects B so it proves C" type of player. Infinis' comments, like the ones above, make me suspicious. I'm also usually suspicious of the really confrontational players, as I feel being rude and abrasive is a tactic meant to intimidate and influence newer players, so AH is on my list. I also have a longshot candidate - DYH. The long prolonged battle between him and Cyan Day 1 could be a part of some insane bus strategy. I know its a longshot - but the last time I had a similar gut feeling was in Harry Potter in reference to Loran/AI being masons. Nothing I can take action on now, but something I will keep in mind as the game goes along.
Ah, and what has that to do with power role? Vanilla can get roleblocked as well, not just power role. Claiming to be roleblocked doesn't really indicate anything about own's role.
I think I may have put it to the page once. Not sure, don't think it's important enough to go check. The point being that townies can be impressed by a good night just as much as scum can be depressed by it. I think it's more a new player tell than a scum tell.
Also, I am not a God-Analyst. If I am, I don't need the Town. I can just single-handedly pick out all the scums with my eyes closed and randomly hammering on the keyboard. There is a reason why I am bouncing my ideas and suspicions within the thread.
Do you mind if I quote this back to you as my answer on why I phrased my Rorschach comment/question the way I did?
Vote: Dagger. The thought had crossed my mind of a game wide fog, but a townie doesn't need to know. Also, fishing in the same sentence.
I'm still reluctant to give out more flavour, but the method of the roleblock I got strongly suggests that this was a one-on-one thing and not a global block.
You're really misconstruing my emphasis here. What I was saying was that every mislynch or townie-kill makes it that much harder for the town to win, so we shouldn't be willing to accept such losses, even on day 1. However, if we do need to lose townies, inactive ones aren't nearly as big a loss as those who contribute anything at all.
As for why I cited both you and Cyan, I was just using examples of players who were being active at different levels of posting frequency and in different ways, but were both still contributing something to the game, even if it was to just get people riled up in Cyan's case.
Okay. We'll leave it at here for now. I'll see if I can solidify my read of you via a reread when I have more time.
Dagger, is the underlined part have to do with the bit AH posted above?
The point I was trying to state was for something as intrusive as a roleblock, the mod would give a flavor PM regardless of whether the recipient was a vanilla or not. I would expect a mod like Chamber to not give anything. But judging from what I received last night, Ged is not such a mod.
Do you mind if I quote this back to you as my answer on why I phrased my Rorschach comment/question the way I did?
I don't mind. In response, I would say speculating on a player's role name when no info is available as of yet to confirm it is not in the town's best interest.
The point I was trying to state was for something as intrusive as a roleblock, the mod would give a flavor PM regardless of whether the recipient was a vanilla or not. I would expect a mod like Chamber to not give anything. But judging from what I received last night, Ged is not such a mod.
I'm not familiar with Chamber, but this isn't cut and dried. I've seen games where roleblocks wouldn't be encountered unless the person tried to do something, so that vanillas would never know about the block. I've also seen games (usually more flavourful ones, as this seems to be) where they would.
If you're implying that Chamber is a bare bones mod and Ged is more flamboyant, then I guess I agree with your point. If you're trying to say it's a bad mod/good mod thing, then I disagree.
goatrevolt, I'd like you to rephrase your request to Dagger, though - you asked two questions, and I'm not sure which one you really care about, or why, or even exactly what you're looking for.
The nefarious Infinis still holds my vote. His "scum list" looks much more like an "OMGUS list", as nearly every person on it has either attacked him or done something that he perceives as an attack. Furthermore, his lashing back at andelijah positively reeks of OMGUS. andlijah's points regarding the problems posed by excessive setup speculation are spot on, and Infinis's reaction is to immediately suggest that andelijah is scumbuddies with someone (or more) on his scum list.
The apocalicious Abandon Hope is also looking worse the more he posts. In almost every game I've played in or read where a roleblock was announced, the questions "what was the flavor?" and "did anyone else get blocked?" quickly follow, often (most often, in fact) posed by townies. I greatly dislike the spin he uses to make Dagger's question look bad: suggesting the outing of power roles if a mass-roleblock had occurred. A mass-roleblock is not a common happening, and to spin a commonly asked question as scummy based on the possibility of a fringe scenario like that reeks of villainous motives.
TMT reaches into his belt and pulls out one of his favorite toys. He looks at the FoSium grenade, hesitates for a moment, then puts it back. He said "no gadgets" today. Maybe tomorrow. Today a Mega FoS Justice Punch is in order. He leaps from his perch on top of the bookshelf and dives straight at hope abandoning fiend.
I care about the answer to both questions. The question I was talking about was whether he thinks it was a scum ability that targeted him. Actually, I'd also like him to elaborate more on his answer to the other question as well. Let me rephrase it to get more to the answer I want: "You revealed that information to prove a point. Why was that point important enough that it required you revealing said information to make it?"
As for why I'm asking, or if there is any specific answer I am looking for, I'll wait until he answers first before elaborating.
Regarding roleblocks, some games will be set up such that everyone is told if they are roleblocked regardless of role or lack thereof. Other games are set up such that only players with roles are informed. Other games are such that only players making actions that night are informed. Other games even go so far as that nobody is actually informed at all (seen it).
It's not really a consideration of good mods vs. bad mods, or the right vs. wrong way to do it. It's purely a mod decision of how much information they want to give players.
I don't accept your refusal. I have a specific reason for asking that question, and do not see any harm in you answering it.
I see. I have a specific reason for declining and am more than willing to back it up with a rationale when revealing it. In exchange for me revealing that, I gather we'll hear your specific reason then? If not, I refuse, and the only way you'll get it out from me would be getting me to claim range.
If you're implying that Chamber is a bare bones mod and Ged is more flamboyant, then I guess I agree with your point. If you're trying to say it's a bad mod/good mod thing, then I disagree.
I see. I have a specific reason for declining and am more than willing to back it up with a rationale when revealing it. In exchange for me revealing that, I gather we'll hear your specific reason then? If not, I refuse, and the only way you'll get it out from me would be getting me to claim range.
I don't doubt you have a specific reason for declining, and I'm not interested in getting you to claim range over it. I think there is potential for something useful to be learned from this, and I will explain my rationale if you answer the question.
The reason I'm voting for you right now is that you used that theory of yours to try and fish for information. (see post #453) Incomplete or ill-conceived theories are fine to propose, especially in day 1. (Lord knows I've done my share)
But when they have a scummy motive behind them, that's worth paying attention to.
Completely dismissing my accusation flippantly does that make you deflection man?
Fishing for a name? We addressed Cubus's claim ad nauseaum but once again Cubus just came out with it. If anyone else had revealed their name, what would I have possibly gained? And to take the point further hypothetically, what would have happened if the person who claimed was killed Night 1? I'd become scum hunting target number 1, WIFOM does not apply in this case. What benefit could I get from a day 1 name claim? I had a theory, the sidekick theory, if Cyan had not been scum it might have been true, but that train has left the station. The theory is dead.
I am now specualting on source materials since we have so many Other characters per the softclaim. If you dislike fishing so much, what about this roleblock claim/roleblock fog that has come up? This claim would, WIFOM aside, present a lot more valuable information than a name claim "fished" for Day 1. Moreover Cubus has not seen a single piece of hate for his name claim, so why do you persist in your vote on me?
I don't think my above post is clear enough. Tilde's agrees where my thinking was going in the first quoted post, he even claims to have his own theory. His initial basis of his suspicions on me is based on that theory. He then piggybacks the fishing suspicion onto his theory. If I disprove the underlying theory (Wikipedia) then the fishing suspicion merits a FoS at best, instead Tilde goes right to vote.
He is then confronted for his wasteful voting and maintains the vote. Why would anyone in the face of stronger arguments maintain a weak vote at best, scum starting a wagon, at worst?
As to Dagger making ad hominem attacks about my play, this is beneath you.
The list is not just a stepping stone, it will be harped upon later in the game. This is not paranoia, it is a foretelling. And if your only defense for misreping me is "I'm not a god-analyst" then I guess your analysis is no better or no worse than mine and therefore subject to the same criticisms.
Secondly my point is that Dagger obviously puts quite a lot of time into his postings and such a mistake when my position was clear is inconceivable!
I made a mistake and did not correct the post, I thought I had. I reread what I wrote and it wasn't there. I am not known for deep, analytical, long winded posts. I make mistakes. The list was corrected by ced, with no other mention of the list. The list then reappeared with the incorrect info and now I m quashing it. Use it for your scum hunting all you wish, but I am not overreacting nor paranoid, first impressions are important. That list gives the impression I'm trying to hide something. Now anything I say will be tinted with that stain. I want my thoughts to be judged on my play not on a false list.
I'm amused that [Shalako], of all people, are talking about terrible reasoning. "Hey, PF's RVS daykill must be serious, therefore I should shoot him to prove that I have a daykill!"
If anyone else had revealed their name, what would I have possibly gained? And to take the point further hypothetically, what would have happened if the person who claimed was killed Night 1? I'd become scum hunting target number 1,
Why?
I am now specualting on source materials since we have so many Other characters per the softclaim.
Again, why? Your other theory has been proved pretty conclusively wrong with only 1 dead body. What makes you think your theories now are going to be more accurate?
As to Dagger making ad hominem attacks about my play, this is beneath you.
The list is not just a stepping stone, it will be harped upon later in the game. This is not paranoia, it is a foretelling. And if your only defense for misreping me is "I'm not a god-analyst" then I guess your analysis is no better or no worse than mine and therefore subject to the same criticisms.
To borrow an argument from DYH, you care too much about your image. Nobody cares that you were on the list. The list is certainly not a list of scum, and even if it were, you aren't on it anymore. No one is going to go back to his list and use it as a point against you because, well, its wrong.
Secondly my point is that Dagger obviously puts quite a lot of time into his postings and such a mistake when my position was clear is inconceivable!
Situation 1: Dagger, while reading your opinion, decided to purposely put you on the wrong list (with the intent of....? Lynching you?) and assumed that he could get away with it without having anyone point out his mistake.
Situation 2: Dagger, for whatever reason, made a mistake.
I think "inconceivable" is being used to describe the wrong situation.
Now anything I say will be tinted with that stain. I want my thoughts to be judged on my play not on a false list.
So me wanting to wait a day/night cycle before nameclaiming is too much to ask? Especially if I think the scum have planned for this?
Most heroes might be willing to charge into danger heedlessly. That's usually why they wind up in a deathtrap that they have to escape from.
Note to self: Your mafia theories are usually wrong, so don't act on them.
If the scum have planned for this, i mean, what good will waiting a day/night cycle do?
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I already explained my problem here. I told you im not both. I also said that IN my pm it said the wrong company name. Stop trying to make me out to be something im not. Did you not see what I have said about my PM?
Loran, and before you say "scum" as your wonderful answer.. What exactly are you looking for with a name claim? Unless CC was Elastagirl, Cyan had a claim ready for us. Granted I guess the overlap could occur, but like Cubus has already said we would be exposing ourselves. (And in public..)
Also I am not liking Jqlgirl nor Someone simplely for their "OMG No Night kill" first post of the morning talk. FOS Jqlgirl, Someone
My top two leads right now are Dagger and spot. I need to go back and provide evidence for this, but my recollection is that Dagger never committed to the Cyan wagon despite touting it as valid. I remember him always denoting willingness to lynch either Jql or Cyan, but I don't remember him actually ever joining the wagon. It seems to me he was using Jql as an excuse to avoid it.
As for spot, I just remember his last post at the end of yesterday seemed really scummy in regards to the Cyan wagon. Cyan jumping on him for that post does not affect my opinion there at all. I can easily see it as Cyan distancing right before he goes down as well as making one last attempt to get a townie lynched instead. Don't trust the words of dying scum.
In the same vein, we shouldn't trust anything that relies on information from Cyan regarding the nature of scum claims. Scum lie, especially when they are already caught and have nothing to lose by making blatant lies.
Regarding the newer players, who seem to comprise the entirety of current wagons, I strongly believe Infinis is town. Jql I'm leaning slightly town, and I'm having a very tough time reading Some One. Some of his posts strike me as pro-town and others as really scummy. I'm not interested in joining a wagon on him right now without a compelling case, at any rate.
His shocking revelation is that he's the SK.
Agreed. I can remember having that kind of reaction (and its companion, "OMG so many bodies!") when just starting out myself.
RL or game?
160 - while discussion is on about a possible softclaim, he is the first to propose the "first letter" portion of the softclaim. While Cyan's identity shows that the scum will have to fakeclaim to avoid detection, the manner of his softclaim (duplicating CropCircles') raises the possibility that some or all of the scum have fakeclaims provided. As a result it's hard to tell whether the scum were actually afraid of the softclaim or not. Call this post an interesting null.
294 - the one I've brought up several times already, where Dagger says that he supports a push on Cyan or on Some One. However, he also says that before the wagon forces a claim from Cyan, we should go ahead with the softclaim. This is something that I disagree with, as has also been said.
This post is still the core of my attack on Dagger. We've gone back and forth on it a couple times, and he hasn't posted since my most recent word on it. I maintain that if Cyan was scummy enough to want him to claim, it doesn't make any sense to push the softclaim out there first, unless you're trying to give Cyan more information. I also find it very suspicious that Dagger said that he supported a push against either Cyan or Some One, then failed to follow up against either of them.
553 and several after that - Dagger comes back in after an absence and makes a number of very good posts asking questions and giving opinions. These are a reason why I'm willing to give him some slack, as there are no major inconsistencies that I can see here, and there is a fair bit of content.
706 - this is something I didn't address earlier, but this isn't the way to do a reread of someone who turned up scum. You don't just look at what they said - you look at what others said about them; at who ignored them, or tried to cover for them, or deflect attention to others.
Basically, if it weren't for post 294 and my impression that Dagger was trying to deflect attention from Cyan, I wouldn't have a case against him. He's been contributing in spurts with breaks in between, but his spurts are usually content-heavy. My disagreements with him on soft-claim order are possibly explained away by a philosophical difference, but I am still very suspicious of him diverting attention from Cyan to the soft-claim. Overall I don't have enough of a case to justify going after Dagger right now, but I continue to live in hope.
I'm going to re-analyze the entire Cyan wagons for hints at who might've been avoiding it subtly, and check to see who Cyan pretty much ignored for day one. If I can find an overlap, I'll likely have my next vote ready.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Some scum, starting from the knowledge of who else is scum and who is town will be overcritical of their buddies based on the psychology of knowing they are scum, and the fear of having weak or non-existent stances on their buddy. When you already know someone is scum, you know they are lying, and thus you might be more inclined to nitpick and attack them. Likewise, they can also be "too defensive" of townies beyond what makes sense.
I'm thinking specifically in terms of Cyan jumping all over Dagger's back for pressuring me, but then getting off like 20 posts later. I don't remember Cyan ever attacking Andelijah for pressuring me on that same post, despite Andelijah doing it longer (and more nitpickingly). I'm wondering if this was Cyan seeing scum-dagger attacking me and being too critical of the attack because he already knew it was scum attacking town. Cyan's attack on Dagger was clearly faked, at any rate, but I'm not sure if it was "exaggerate the distance" fake or "seed the mislynch" fake. Based on Dagger's lack of commit to the Cyan-wagon, I'm leaning the former.
Way to answer a question intended only for Tilde.
Tilde, once again, what good would waiting ONE day/night cycle do? Is that what you would suggest?
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Well, since you seem insistent with doing the nameclaims today, trying to convince you to wait for more than one day seemed... kinda pointless. I personally like Cubus' suggestion better. I figured one day/night cycle was a reasonable compromise.
We could always re-evaluate whether or not to do the nameclaims Day 3 after we had more mod information.
Note to self: Your mafia theories are usually wrong, so don't act on them.
Seriously.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
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last updated 03/23/11
Is it? Rereading Some One now.
Result of reread on Some One: Now that I have read his posts in an uninterrupted flow, I can say with almost certainty that his thought processes indicate a town's mindset, or at the very least a logical progression of thoughts and viewpoints. I haven't seen anything that would indicate a scum mentality (from what I could gather). And thus, I am leaning town on SO.
@loran: Just to clarify, what are these 5 or so "-"s that you have managed to pick out from SO's posts from your first read through?
@CC: Feel free to chip in since you are advocating a wagon on SO, yes?
Now that we are on the topic, I would like to ask this of the town: Anyone else was role-blocked last night?
Okay, we think differently. Anyone who wants to research this line of arguments just have to look over our posts on this.
I am saying I don't really see why a townie would do that. As for scum, here:
I mentioned as a scum, you might be trying to fish info on the town's role names in an attempt to correlate with what you have on your own team's role names, on Day 1 when the scums are at their darkest along with the town.
Mistake? I have had that list for ages, since right at the beginning of Day 1 when we were discussing soft claims. The list certainly wasn't generated on the spot by going through a reread. Which was why I even bothered to ask people's opinions or corrections on it.
I didn't even take a single step in your direction, based on the list itself. I took note of Ced's correction by adding "(pro?)" besides your name in my personal list, to be checked at a later date when I actually bothered to. But reposting the list with that correction seemed like such a waste when it wasn't really that significant anyway. The point I posted the list was to gauge reactions (or lack thereof) on it. And if you were so concerned on it, you would have spoken up on it right on Day 1 after I have posted the list instead of waiting till Cubus hounded you on it on Day 2.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
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Considering no one else has said their role name could fit an array of roles, I definitely believe name claiming today would be a bad move.
I beg to differ. That is not a strong enough case for your innocence. It's merely a good point in trying to judge your alignment.
You are placing a lot of importance on said list. No one bothered reposting it, as per say the list of soft claims, because no one placed a lot of importance on it. Cubus used the list as an initiator of his scum-hunting, and I might as well, but to use it as part of a case is incomprehensible. Do you think being listed as someone who was against soft claims is a condemnation? If that was the case, why didn't you go after the rest of the people on that list since you judged it to be such a great sin?
But it should. Because I'll keep bugging if I didn't receive an answer. And if I have to bug long enough, it raises alarms in my head.
On this rather innocuous post:
How exactly did you know that? And how is it relevant?
I went over this extensively with RR. You could reference our arguments.
Cyan was on claiming range going to lynching range. Adding my vote at that time would serve nothing except to say "Hey, I was on the wagon!" when discussion was still ongoing. I didn't vote for Jql at that time because, what was the point? Cyan was already going to swing. And I was arguing simultaneously with multiple people at the same time, so while Jql was one of them, she's hardly the only one. You'll also note our philosophy is different. While you were content because someone was ready to swing, I preferred to continue scum-hunting.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
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We have indeed gone back and forth over them a couple of time. My position stays the same. Anyone wishing to reference them could do so.
That is how I do a reread of anyone who turned up dead. What you are referring to is what I term a full reread, not a player-specific reread. I rarely do that unless it's near the endgame and I have a need to refresh my memory, or when I replace in.
That's a good psychology reasoning there. I suppose the only way we (excluding me) will ever know the truth is over my dead body, eh?
Game wide fog? Fishing? What? Where?
On Infinis: I believed Infinis to be town, judging from my sole experience of playing with him in Battle Royale. It's good that he's more participatory on Day 2 and I would suggest that we give him a few more game days to further analyze his behavior. Suffice to say, he's not very experienced and I don't really see an inexperienced scum going the way he is going right now in this game. On this note, I would like to ask whether Infinis has ever played as scum before in mafia and the comments on that play?
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
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We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
I believe you are asking me a question you know the answer to. Why did you create the list at all if you did not think it had validity towards scum hunting?
No one needed to repost the list if the correction was missed (as Cubus claims he did). The damage gets done my name gets tarnished by being on the anti-soft claim list. The idea behind that being that some scum MUST be on the list because they have something to hide. This is not paranoia, Cubus is beginning his scum hunt off your list. If my name was removed when ced corrected it Cubus would not have mentionned me. I am already embroiled with others over the usefulness of my theories. And now I am dragged into Cubus' scum hunt and now likely scum in many players mind because of a simple error from an analyst like Dagger?
However I have to thank you Dagger. I went back to find reposts of the list and if anyone else had used it for scum hunting when I came across this series
(My bold and underline)
Quite a flip flop
I'm scum because you dont like my theory and my soft claim doesn't fit wikipedia, which is your theory. Again the poor rationale has been pointed out to you and yet you persist.
Bad Horse doesn't have a wiki entry and is only mentioned via Dr. Horrible's sing a long blog.
Unvote. Vote Tilde
12-11? I'm losing track
The list exists because I believe it could offer leads in where to focus my attention on. A stepping stone, so to speak, when I am at a loss of where to go further. The reason I posted the list was to see people's reactions (or lack thereof) to it. The list cannot be used as the basis for a case, because like soft claims, nothing concrete could be gained out of it without outside info not inherent within the list itself. You claimed that your name gets tarnished by being on the list, but does it really? Who went after you based on that? Even Cubus used the list merely as a basis on where to start looking, and then did he snapped after everyone on that list? He did not. He picked out those he believed cleared and then removed them from it.
If what you claimed is true in that everyone is condemned merely by being on the list, then why the heck would Cubus cleared people out of said list? I could easily just as used the player list as my starting point and start damning people on it using your logic: That there MUST be some scums in the player list. That is paranoia on your part. No one mentioned you in anything nor even brought you up as a suspect merely based on the list. We are currently having this discussion because you yourself brought it up by lashing out at others. So, by all means, tell me who else is hunting scums via my list.
And seriously, the energy spent on gaming the mod via theories is much better spent digging out scums.
Also, I am not a God-Analyst. If I am, I don't need the Town. I can just single-handedly pick out all the scums with my eyes closed and randomly hammering on the keyboard. There is a reason why I am bouncing my ideas and suspicions within the thread.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
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Record: 3-2
Simpsons Mafia (Newbie) - Vanilla Mafia - Win
The Fiasco Corporation - Town Reporter - Loss
Doomsday Mafia - Mafia Roleblocker - Win
Battle Royale Mafia - Serial Daykiller - Loss
Danger City Mafia - Vanilla Town - Win
I have never played nor read Shaman Mafia, so I have no idea what you are talking about.
As for the roleblock thing, I am trying to confirm the existence of another roleblocker. A confirmation of that would mean two roleblockers, most likely one on the town's side. Really, it's either RR really was roleblocked (partially clearing him) or he was making a gambit there. Knowing whether someone else was roleblocked would narrow the possibilities down. How would that actually dig out a power role?
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
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Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Actually, going through this sentence again, why would you immediately assume a game wide fog? I am assuming you are speaking about a mass roleblock here. I immediately thought it was a normal roleblock and just assumed everyone thought the same thing. Maybe your entire team was roleblocked?
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Why would assume a game wide fog? Simplest explanation is best. And I've seen them before. So naturally. From my perspective, it's seeming pretty unlikely that you wouldn't have run into something similar.
As for your motives, best case scenario, confirming a second roleblocker would do is set up a 50/50 WIFOM, assuming nobody made a stupid assumption about what happened in the night. That isn't positive either.
I wonder, is that a post you'd get from "OMGUS-Man" or "WIFOM-Man"?
The reason I'm voting for you right now is that you used that theory of yours to try and fish for information. (see post #453) Incomplete or ill-conceived theories are fine to propose, especially in day 1. (Lord knows I've done my share)
But when they have a scummy motive behind them, that's worth paying attention to.
Note to self: Your mafia theories are usually wrong, so don't act on them.
Read the post and tell me you thought that was a straight stream of consciousness. As for how is it relevant, maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
Can't truly explain right now, and shouldn't really take the time to do so instead of studying.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Ah, and what has that to do with power role? Vanilla can get roleblocked as well, not just power role. Claiming to be roleblocked doesn't really indicate anything about own's role.
Also, I was not questioning why you talked about a game wide fog. I was questioning why you would immediately assume that over a normal roleblock? Even if you have seen it before, when someone talked about being roleblocked, one doesn't automatically assume that over the standard one.
That 50/50 WIFOM only applies when we have two claimed roleblockers, and even then the numbers can be shifted in either direction by analysis of target's rationale. Two people claiming being roleblocked only confirms the existence of two roleblockers, and careful analysis of target's rationale can determine which is the scums' origin.
Sure, we can continue this after your exams. Maybe then, you can expound on your rationale on this, and we can discuss about Some One, which you didn't mention here.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
It's right there! Simplest explanation best. You even quoted it.
I've got a plan. Let's base our decisions on play analysis and through setup speculation based WIFOM out the window. Why isn't that option on the table?
Why not? Someone did something to me last night and I received the entire juicy flavor of it. That invalidates your entire point, doesn't it?
Besides, I have done my fair share of play analysis. Maybe you would like to contribute?
I'll also note that you did not call out others when they made "setup speculation based WIFOM" but protested about it when it concerned you.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
I fully agree with you about this. Nothing disguised as theories usually make me suspicious.
You can't gain leverage without information, and we have very little. This is really the sort of theory you throw out there after the information is public. A letter and a vague "other" doesn't really qualify as information here.
The last part is also weird. A lot of players don't parade their scumlist so...publicly.
I have the same question. I think it comes down to the result - the people who want to wait seem to think that they get more value out of getting a "true" claim from the scum - they want to take out other options so they are only safely left to claim what is in their PM. The people who prefer name claims now (including me) think that the town gets more value out of a conflcting claim.
Some nameclaims might seem transparent, especially when you come out and say "based on my name, its pretty obvious what I am" I'd prefer a nameclaim today, but not if some ridiculous number of people (over half) strongly feel their name would give away too much (mine does not, so I don't have much to work with - and the names we have so far are ambiguous role-wise
I'm more of a gutfeeling, "that doesn't read right" type of player than the uber-analytical "A affects B so it proves C" type of player. Infinis' comments, like the ones above, make me suspicious. I'm also usually suspicious of the really confrontational players, as I feel being rude and abrasive is a tactic meant to intimidate and influence newer players, so AH is on my list. I also have a longshot candidate - DYH. The long prolonged battle between him and Cyan Day 1 could be a part of some insane bus strategy. I know its a longshot - but the last time I had a similar gut feeling was in Harry Potter in reference to Loran/AI being masons. Nothing I can take action on now, but something I will keep in mind as the game goes along.
I'll take the bait...what sort of flavor? And just to be clear...some person did something to you last night, not Some One the player?
Sorry if some of this is a little unfocused - I reread a couple of times and cleaned it up.
The former.
The flavor is bittersweet, though the exact nature of which I'll decline to reveal for now.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Dagger, is the underlined part have to do with the bit AH posted above?
Heh.
I think I may have put it to the page once. Not sure, don't think it's important enough to go check. The point being that townies can be impressed by a good night just as much as scum can be depressed by it. I think it's more a new player tell than a scum tell.
Do you mind if I quote this back to you as my answer on why I phrased my Rorschach comment/question the way I did?
I'm still reluctant to give out more flavour, but the method of the roleblock I got strongly suggests that this was a one-on-one thing and not a global block.
Okay. We'll leave it at here for now. I'll see if I can solidify my read of you via a reread when I have more time.
I'll decline to reveal that for now. As for why, see below.
The point I was trying to state was for something as intrusive as a roleblock, the mod would give a flavor PM regardless of whether the recipient was a vanilla or not. I would expect a mod like Chamber to not give anything. But judging from what I received last night, Ged is not such a mod.
I don't mind. In response, I would say speculating on a player's role name when no info is available as of yet to confirm it is not in the town's best interest.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
I don't accept your refusal. I have a specific reason for asking that question, and do not see any harm in you answering it.
I'm not familiar with Chamber, but this isn't cut and dried. I've seen games where roleblocks wouldn't be encountered unless the person tried to do something, so that vanillas would never know about the block. I've also seen games (usually more flavourful ones, as this seems to be) where they would.
If you're implying that Chamber is a bare bones mod and Ged is more flamboyant, then I guess I agree with your point. If you're trying to say it's a bad mod/good mod thing, then I disagree.
goatrevolt, I'd like you to rephrase your request to Dagger, though - you asked two questions, and I'm not sure which one you really care about, or why, or even exactly what you're looking for.
The apocalicious Abandon Hope is also looking worse the more he posts. In almost every game I've played in or read where a roleblock was announced, the questions "what was the flavor?" and "did anyone else get blocked?" quickly follow, often (most often, in fact) posed by townies. I greatly dislike the spin he uses to make Dagger's question look bad: suggesting the outing of power roles if a mass-roleblock had occurred. A mass-roleblock is not a common happening, and to spin a commonly asked question as scummy based on the possibility of a fringe scenario like that reeks of villainous motives.
TMT reaches into his belt and pulls out one of his favorite toys. He looks at the FoSium grenade, hesitates for a moment, then puts it back. He said "no gadgets" today. Maybe tomorrow. Today a Mega FoS Justice Punch is in order. He leaps from his perch on top of the bookshelf and dives straight at hope abandoning fiend.
FoS Abandon Hope
Record: 3-2
Simpsons Mafia (Newbie) - Vanilla Mafia - Win
The Fiasco Corporation - Town Reporter - Loss
Doomsday Mafia - Mafia Roleblocker - Win
Battle Royale Mafia - Serial Daykiller - Loss
Danger City Mafia - Vanilla Town - Win
As for why I'm asking, or if there is any specific answer I am looking for, I'll wait until he answers first before elaborating.
Regarding roleblocks, some games will be set up such that everyone is told if they are roleblocked regardless of role or lack thereof. Other games are set up such that only players with roles are informed. Other games are such that only players making actions that night are informed. Other games even go so far as that nobody is actually informed at all (seen it).
It's not really a consideration of good mods vs. bad mods, or the right vs. wrong way to do it. It's purely a mod decision of how much information they want to give players.
I see. I have a specific reason for declining and am more than willing to back it up with a rationale when revealing it. In exchange for me revealing that, I gather we'll hear your specific reason then? If not, I refuse, and the only way you'll get it out from me would be getting me to claim range.
The bare/flamboyant thingy.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
I am suspicious of RR and I am trying to determine whether it is a gambit he's trying to throw suspicion off him.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
I don't doubt you have a specific reason for declining, and I'm not interested in getting you to claim range over it. I think there is potential for something useful to be learned from this, and I will explain my rationale if you answer the question.
~Tilde~ - 1 (infinis)
Dagger - 1 (Abandon Hope)
Infinis - 2 (The Mad Tapper, ~Tilde~)
JqlGirl - 1 (Some One)
RobRoy - 1 (Cubus)
Some One - 2 (CropCircles, loran16)
With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.
Completely dismissing my accusation flippantly does that make you deflection man?
Fishing for a name? We addressed Cubus's claim ad nauseaum but once again Cubus just came out with it. If anyone else had revealed their name, what would I have possibly gained? And to take the point further hypothetically, what would have happened if the person who claimed was killed Night 1? I'd become scum hunting target number 1, WIFOM does not apply in this case. What benefit could I get from a day 1 name claim? I had a theory, the sidekick theory, if Cyan had not been scum it might have been true, but that train has left the station. The theory is dead.
I am now specualting on source materials since we have so many Other characters per the softclaim. If you dislike fishing so much, what about this roleblock claim/roleblock fog that has come up? This claim would, WIFOM aside, present a lot more valuable information than a name claim "fished" for Day 1. Moreover Cubus has not seen a single piece of hate for his name claim, so why do you persist in your vote on me?
I don't think my above post is clear enough. Tilde's agrees where my thinking was going in the first quoted post, he even claims to have his own theory. His initial basis of his suspicions on me is based on that theory. He then piggybacks the fishing suspicion onto his theory. If I disprove the underlying theory (Wikipedia) then the fishing suspicion merits a FoS at best, instead Tilde goes right to vote.
He is then confronted for his wasteful voting and maintains the vote. Why would anyone in the face of stronger arguments maintain a weak vote at best, scum starting a wagon, at worst?
As to Dagger making ad hominem attacks about my play, this is beneath you.
The list is not just a stepping stone, it will be harped upon later in the game. This is not paranoia, it is a foretelling. And if your only defense for misreping me is "I'm not a god-analyst" then I guess your analysis is no better or no worse than mine and therefore subject to the same criticisms.
Secondly my point is that Dagger obviously puts quite a lot of time into his postings and such a mistake when my position was clear is inconceivable!
I made a mistake and did not correct the post, I thought I had. I reread what I wrote and it wasn't there. I am not known for deep, analytical, long winded posts. I make mistakes. The list was corrected by ced, with no other mention of the list. The list then reappeared with the incorrect info and now I m quashing it. Use it for your scum hunting all you wish, but I am not overreacting nor paranoid, first impressions are important. That list gives the impression I'm trying to hide something. Now anything I say will be tinted with that stain. I want my thoughts to be judged on my play not on a false list.
12-11? I'm losing track
Again, why? Your other theory has been proved pretty conclusively wrong with only 1 dead body. What makes you think your theories now are going to be more accurate?
To borrow an argument from DYH, you care too much about your image. Nobody cares that you were on the list. The list is certainly not a list of scum, and even if it were, you aren't on it anymore. No one is going to go back to his list and use it as a point against you because, well, its wrong.
Situation 1: Dagger, while reading your opinion, decided to purposely put you on the wrong list (with the intent of....? Lynching you?) and assumed that he could get away with it without having anyone point out his mistake.
Situation 2: Dagger, for whatever reason, made a mistake.
I think "inconceivable" is being used to describe the wrong situation.
Your play is scummy.
Vote: Infinis
I might have more to add after ~Tilde~ responds.
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last updated 03/23/11