You weren't clear, but I'm going to assume you're asking me whether or not there is anything scummy about AH's points. The answer is yes, there are things AH has done that are scummy. However, I am ok with a lot of what you pointed out.
MOST SCUMMY spotofprey (r. Minineko) - Bus Driver Some One (r. Natirasha) - Kill-Immune Townie
Abandon Hope - Townie: Me LEAST SCUMMY
Yes, this is OK. At the time he made this post, I agreed 100% that Spot was the most scummy. I disagreed with his assessment of you, but I don't think it was unreasonable at all. Putting himself as least scummy on the list is an extremely weak scum tell at best; I consider it a non-tell, just like when someone lists themselves as scum.
Lets look at the night action. Who (assuming they were town) were the most powerful roles against the scum? Vigilantee, Watcher, and Copycat. The vigilante has promised to keep his gun in his pants, and is not an immediate threat. The copycat flat kills a killer. The watcher directs a lynch. The copycat is better. Where's discussion saying how the busdriver can tremendously screw over the mafia (as he did so in this case)?
Again, I'd like AH to elaborate on this before I say anything. I have my own opinions on these points but I'd rather hear what AH has to say.
A townie expects a bold killer to target the high priority targets, a timid killer to avoid the high priority targets. Even if the townie suspects that one of the high priority targets is scum, one of the killers has to be both bold and target the wrong high priority target. Not good odds, not a particularly productive use of the bus (by expectation).
The mafia expects the SK to rationally avoid the most obvious target, and the faith healer to conservatively protect the most obvious target. The bussing would then: save their member Akid, transfer Faith Healer protection to Akid, indirectly kill the most dangerous member of the town.
The townie bussing would be close to complete WIFOM. The mafia bussing is significantly less guessing and potentially much worse for the town. Too bad for them the SK was an idiot.
Agreed, this probably the most perfect example of WIFOM logic I've ever encountered in a game, and I can see a motivation for scum to push Spot the way AH did here. So in this case it's a scum tell. But look at a counter example. AH also used awful logic to push on RafK before he fired. Why would a scum, who was very close to being killed, not only be vocally against killing the only other player who was being considered (who was town) without even identifying another target, but go so far as to attack the very townie who has the power to kill him? That behavior makes zero sense as scum.
That's my overall point. AH has done some scummy things but he has also done a fair number of things that don't make sense as scum. He's obviously not the paragon of pro-townieness, but I think the town can do better today.
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@ Kraj - I see your case against DYH, but the lack of a follow up response to his own is what's missing, from my perspective at least (yes, you did address something in his follow-up, but something =/= everything). Likewise, if you would like to comment on what DYH said regarding Axel's behavior being atypical of his normal towniness and Axel saying it was normal, that'd also be great (and the same for Akid, for that matter). What I am getting at is how wrong was DYH as opposed to how right was he in picking out these noticable differences in behavior, and whether or not there were any to begin with?
For instance, if the truth of the matter is that Akid was acting normal for scum, and Axel was acting normal for town, and then DYH more often than not could pick out scum and town, then DYH seems like a good target for a lynch. On the other hand, if both individuals were acting significantly different than usual, I don't feel nearly as comfortable voting for DYH because how could someone who so rightfully noted stark contrasts in individual's behavior be in the wrong when he was really trying to be in the right?
I see what you mean regarding AH, but I want to do a read of him and see how far the "wouldn't make sense as scum" really could potentially go.
He plays extremely analytically day one. He has his early game vote, and his vote on RafK (both were town). However, his one and only vote since that time, came in that post 614. What I don't like is how sharply it constrasts from his previous play style because it used faulty logic to arrive at the vote of a player Axel made us realize is more likely than not town. That being said, I think it's a little too much to say that AH's behavior makes no sense as scum because his day 1 behavior is incredible for scum in the way it contained a thorough understanding of the game of mafia combined with entirely reasonable votes that just so happened to be on townies.
The point I am getting at is that AH day 1 seems like an entirely different person than the AH who made post 614, and that being said, if he is scum, that post has been his only slip thus far. Note how logical he acts, argues, etc. day 1, and then how this one post containing his 3rd vote of the game contains more faulty and inaccurate logic than non-faulty logic.
I'm not saying discuss his targets AT ALL - I'm just saying he should have discussed Akid's scumminess given he felt Kraj was town and intended on bussing the town's 2 greatest power roles.
Realistically, what he did was fine, and there's really no need for further discussion because it's just harping on a non-mafiosos past. In other words, we should probably get to lynching AH, Vote AH .
WTH? I got whiplash that changed direction so fast. But that's fine. It's all behind us now. And your vote is oh so reasonable.
Quote from Some One »
Where's discussion saying how the busdriver can tremendously screw over the mafia (as he did so in this case)?
It's missing because it's irrelevant. I'm not talking about what the busdriver can do. I'm talking about spot of prey (and Mini's) thoughts and motivations.
Quote from Kraj »
Quote from Some One »
Then he disapeared. He wasn't the only one to disappear...
I'd like AH to elaborate on this before I say anything.
Wrong. I'm still here. I don't play obsessively. I play for fun.
I'm reading over and over that my argument against spot is WIFOM. What I'm talking about is spot's perception of the future one night ago. At that point he was facing an unknown, and WIFOM decisions had to play a part in his future action. It's not about whether or not someone was going to do something. It's about how his action minimized the negatives of those unknowns and maximized the gain from the position of a mafia member. Spot ultimately failed, but that has nothing to do with it. And the fact that the outcome was so positive for the town makes me all the more positive that spot is telling the truth about what he did, and lying about why.
I'm reading over and over that my argument against spot is WIFOM. What I'm talking about is spot's perception of the future one night ago. At that point he was facing an unknown, and WIFOM decisions had to play a part in his future action. It's not about whether or not someone was going to do something. It's about how his action minimized the negatives of those unknowns and maximized the gain from the position of a mafia member. Spot ultimately failed, but that has nothing to do with it. And the fact that the outcome was so positive for the town makes me all the more positive that spot is telling the truth about what he did, and lying about why.
Just because I'm interested where this could go -
If I'm lying about why I chose my targets, what do you think was my "real" reasoning for the targets I chose?
No. I already did that. My explanation was not lacking. You don't have to agree. But that is your failing, not mine. I cannot make you understand. Think for yourself.
Can we settle on somebody? Because this going round and round is getting rather boring and fairly pointless.
I think there are reasons we could off a number of people
SoP's explanation for his choices
AH's just general lurky nature in addition to his choice of accusing RafK prior to the Axelrod kill
GT's idiotic play
Some One's numerous references to his hypothetically being the SK and then challenging me to randomize him, like that would matter if he were the SK
DYH for his generally scummy play
Me for my "bad" choice of randomizing Loran.
Honestly, I don't think we're going to get much better than that in terms of analysis. My order of preference would be, from most scummy to least scummy:
My apologies for the delay; spent the entire weekend packing and moving houses. I do not yet have internet access at the new house; so I'm only able to post from work. I'm in the office most of this week, so I should be able to catch up tomorrow or Wednesday.
Ok so post 331 is now your defense for not going after AK day one? Or are you admitting that you can now see what AK did day one and didn't catch it?
Do what? I was responding to your request to show where I established my position on AK. It's the reason I didn't pursue him day one, yes; AK did not play his usual scum game - rather than actively post and place poorly-backed votes on people who weren't going to be lynched, he lurked through much of the day.
@Kraj: AK's jump to Axelrod is not WIFOM; what apparent townie view could he have hoped to gain by switching his kill-vote over to Axelrod (town)?
@Some One: Feel free to go read any other game where Axel-the-first has been town and compare it to his behavior in this one. They don't line up. The only behavior that was even remotely similar was in Elegant mafia, but there were night actions which bore out the truth of his story there.
(I will be back to the thread when my cable gets installed. I am off work next week, so I won't be posting from here, so it's up to comcast. See you soon - I hope!)
Do what? I was responding to your request to show where I established my position on AK. It's the reason I didn't pursue him day one, yes; AK did not play his usual scum game - rather than actively post and place poorly-backed votes on people who weren't going to be lynched, he lurked through much of the day.
This recent nonsense with Apokalypse Kid is just that. I don't know if you've ever played with him before, but he's extremely easy to spot as scum. He doesn't lurk; in fact, it's quite the opposite. Instead, he likes to generate poor attacks on targets that won't be lynched - no repercussions for being wrong that way. I'd be more concerned about Yare, who for all his calling out AK for his lack of posting, hasn't contributed much else recently, either.
Ok so I am looking for bad logic/poor attacks with AK, and even though his activity in this game was awful.
Way to misrepresent. He said the townie vig shouldn't fire, and if a vig fires, they are scum and an easy lynch.
OK lets start with AK attacking me asking a question to Axel. He clearly takes my words out of context and tried to flip it against me. When I even stated I DONT UNDERSTAND.. After I reply he backs off.
Loran, it's been 6 days. I'm averaging a post a day, which is better than most people in most games. I just can't keep up with the epic arguments, so I contribute what I can, and that is call out AH for being ridiculous.
Because they don't make sense as good for the town.
In this little spat between AK and Gifts, AK is voting for AH because he's being ridiculous. When Gifts strikes back saying that crazy does not equal scum AK's defense is that it "Dosent make sence.." AK falling off another horse he tries to start up and has poor defenses with. Also I would like to point out that AK knows that his activity level is poor, which might show something against whatever norm.
I'm still here, and I'm keeping up on what's happening, but I've had an epic workload, so I haven't been posting as much as I should. Unvote AH's interaction with GT gave me a similar read to RafK's, that they were both sincere about what they were saying. This leaves Axelrod as the scummiest in my eyes, I'll post up a list of reasons tomorrow. Vote Axel
I'm not trying to chamber this game, I'm just being lazy. The argument that Axelrod has played like this before is one that I find solid, his half-baked plan seems like a way for him to put his team in a position to wreck the town, and many of his ideas and plans have been ones that cannot be good for the town.
Here we have AK switch from AH to Axel mostly because AH is now the same as Rafk in a mind set..? Once again states in both posts he's being lazy. And Ak's reasons for why Axel is scummy? (Well nothing in the actual VOTING post.. ) But it is because Axel made a plan.. Ooooh.. A swing and a miss I believe.
A number of people voting AH would see the light and vote you, for one. I believe there are more-I'll lay it out tomorrow.
So this interaction with Axel says it all. AK is voting for Axel however wants AH to be shot instead.. to clear Axel.. And another promise for more info we never get..
Lynching because nobody would see it coming...Best plan ever. AH, that is definitely ridiculous. I think that you're crazy, but I have to agree that it's not really a good scum play.
I shift my fiend target to axelrod, should have done that a while ago.
So, the terribleness of AH's "plan" has now convinced you he's town?
I guess my "terrible" plan was much more terrible though, right? Or it was a better "scum" play, in some way?
I don't think you even know what you are saying anymore.
Also note that this:
Didn't happen. Again.
Yup once again Axel says it all, this isn't great planning from AK.. It's just awful.
I'll reply to a case if you put one up. I've had a lot of work recently.
On RafK, I still just don't see why a scum RafK would bother with a tally in the first place, so just don't see shooting axel as an OMG Raf's Scum action.
Confirm Vote.
SO is more likely scum than Raf IMO. SO's last 2 posts are scumtastic too. Don't lynch RafK, SO is much scummier.
I have this here because I started attacking SO about his actions, however now AK just jumps right on with more promises of data that we never see. Granted Ak dies overnight and cannot "get back to us" however it just isn't all that great.
Whew ok So DYH where was it that AK was playing this different game you speak of? Don't forget the 4 or 5 posts that AK promises to post stuff but never does. How can you see these "attacks" or "statements" and still defend that you couldn't catch him because of how different he has played this round?
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Both AH and Axel were primary targets throughout day one. The vast majority of his attacks were in their general direction. That's hardly placing poor attacks on targets unlikely to be lynched.
Both AH and Axel were primary targets throughout day one. The vast majority of his attacks were in their general direction. That's hardly placing poor attacks on targets unlikely to be lynched.
So they were poor attacks on targets that were likely to be lynched then? You do forget the "attacks" on myself and Someone as well. As "poor" as they were they are there.
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So, in case anyone's wondering, I'm a bit overwhemled with Christmas stuff atm. I'm not putting proper attention on any game I'm playing.
Merry Christmas everyone!
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I my as well chime in and say that I'll be doing my best to keep an eye on my games over the next week or so, but I probably will not get to continuing my in-depth look at each player until after the new year.
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So they were poor attacks on targets that were likely to be lynched then? You do forget the "attacks" on myself and Someone as well. As "poor" as they were they are there.
His votes certainly weren't; they were on high-attention players. And much of his focus was on them (AH and Axelrod); not you and Some One. He also was lurking, which he does not historically do as a scum player since he doesn't want to get called out for it. The pattern is entirely there, he played against his scum norm.
Akid just got lynched in another game as scum. He was lurky but at least kept to some promises of posting content later. Furthermore, he bandwagoned at opportune moments and didn't throw out TOO much at targets unlikely to be lynched.
As a result, it really appears as though Akid has no solid scum tells, and thus, I'm not sure how DYH could try to pinpoint them and draw the conclusion Akid is not scum.
Here's the deal, folks; I'm not going to have an internet connection at home until after the first of the year (I hate ComCast). I am sitting at the local library right now typing this. My activity will be back to normal next week as I return to work then (and that's where I post typically, anyhow); I'm finishing up the new house this week on vacation. If you can bear with me, I'll be back in action next week. If not, I'll understand if Suth gets a replacement.
I am being too lazy to look up the actual vote count right now. I'm slowly trying to get back into my games after Christmas craziness.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
But now that it's past New Year's, (Happy 2009 everyone) I expect everyone to begin posting regularly again. I would prefer not to have to prod everyone, so...
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Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
So DYH has no votes at all despite apparently being on almost everyone's short list.
Vote: DYH
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Axel, why the vote on DYH? Your reason is what i'm interested in.
Do you mean, "why are you voting just now, when you've been calling him scum for a long time?" Or "Why do you think he's scummy, please restate?"
I'm voting now because the game is dragging and nothing else is happening. I've thought he was scummy since my original incarnation on Day 1. I think my most recent summary was made in THIS post, though there may be other comments after that.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Since my family's holiday visit ended this morning, I expected to resume posting as normal today. Unfortunately one of them gave me a holiday cold as a parting gift. Hopefully it will pass quickly and I'll be back in another day or two. My sincere apologies.
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Could have sworn I voted for AH. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't really feel like going back and trying to find it because the internet I am using here, on vacation, is painfully slow.
Do you mean, "why are you voting just now, when you've been calling him scum for a long time?" Or "Why do you think he's scummy, please restate?"
I'm voting now because the game is dragging and nothing else is happening. I've thought he was scummy since my original incarnation on Day 1. I think my most recent summary was made in THIS post, though there may be other comments after that.
The reason I am asking is I am trying to find out if the motive is revenge or you are really scum hunting. You comming back into the game as another role seems can seem fishy for why you are attacking a prior target. Basicly your motives can be different if you are now scum.
Quite a gambit for a now scum player to have been wrong earlier in the game as a townie. Wouldn't you agree?
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I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at with that last statement, Roja. What exactly are you insinuating it is that Axel is doing? It seems quite obvious to me that he thought he was right before and that regardless of his alignment he would come in and continue the same train of thought - I believe I said as much earlier. There's nothing to see there beyond WIFOM.
Still content with my vote on AH, but refresh my memory Roja - why are you suspicious of GT's choice (now Axel) and not Yare's selection? (or if you are, it's clearly to a lesser extent since he's not mentioned) What do you think about Kraj's choice of a target?
The reason I am asking is I am trying to find out if the motive is revenge or you are really scum hunting. You comming back into the game as another role seems can seem fishy for why you are attacking a prior target. Basicly your motives can be different if you are now scum.
Quite a gambit for a now scum player to have been wrong earlier in the game as a townie. Wouldn't you agree?
That would not actually be a gambit. It might be considered a stroke of luck for me (as scum vs. a town DYH) that I misguidedly went after him on day one and my previous (errorneous) position can now be used to my (scum) advantage - but that would be about it.
It's not a plus or a minus for me right now. At most all I can say is that when you look at what I was saying on Day 1, at least you know that was genuine.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Continuing my rereads. I currently have little reason to be suspicious of Roja, so if I reread him at all he'll be at the bottom of my list. I reread GT/Axelrod and overall I feel my earlier points against GT are still valid but they're not strong enough to lynch Axelrod over and there's been almost nothing new to add to a scum case since Axelrod replaced. I'm not interested in persuing that avenue.
The points against DYH are good, but his responses have been reasonable. He has seemingly changed his mind quite a bit, but there has been reasonable basis for him to do so. I'm not going to vote for DYH at this time. Unless I've missed someone, that leaves Yare and Some One. I will still reread Yare, but unless I see something really bad in his posts I will be happy with a
Vote: Some One
Some One has spent the whole game doing little other than sitting firmly on the fence, and making useless metagame arguments. The few times he has taken a strong stance, he ends up reversing his position with little or no basis.
Regarding AH:
Early on his choice for Crazed Fiending is AH (post 303). In 305 he explains why: AH has been actively lurky, going as far as to say that even if AH is town his death with be a positive thing. This is already bad, but in post 350 he says "It's understood attacking the inactive players is going to get you absolutely no where", in post 392 he says that he is against Raf's lynch because Axelrod was actually his preferred target, despite never giving any indication of that whatsoever and constantly harping on AH, and then in post 398 he says that shooting AH based on this criteria would have been a bad thing because so many players were lurking. Nevertheless, he will turn around and push suspicion onto AH in post 463 even though he repeatedly admitted his only criteria for wanting AH dead is no longer valid.
At the start of Day 2, his first action is to resume attacks on AH, who happens to be the only living player to be wagoned day 1, based on the connection to AK Loran pointed out. He later will vote SoP, but as that wagon flounders he defaults back to AH based on the fact that AH's argument that Spot would bus a mafia buddy is ridiculous. In 797 he says "I have a very difficult time saying anyone has been acting scummier than AH has". But the one and only thing he has given as evidence of AH's scumminess is the case on Spot. In 803 he defaults back to a metagame argument.
Overall, SomeOne has flopped back and forth about AH and never provided any real justification for attacking him.
Regarding Raf:
In post 392 he says Raf is town and he is opposed to Raf's lynch. Reason is basically because Axelrod was his pick for being shot. Understands the points against Raf but thinks Yare is scum for making a case on him. Also is suspicious of Spot. Roja finds it suspicious that Some One doesn't have a problem with Raf's actions; SO responds with deflection: 'if you don't like Raf's actions, then attack him, not me'. In post 441, he now is explicitly on the fence about Raf. Two posts later, he says no one who supported AH being CF'd should be under suspicion (I haven't a clue why) and that Raf is scum. No real reasoning to explain the change of heart. Doesn't want to vote yet, though. Prompts others to make their stances known while keeping his own close to the vest. In 463 he pushes Raf's wagon and tosses suspicion onto AH, whom he had been defending. In 482 and 487, he now makes posts defending Raf, which he will later claim was simply playing Devil's Advocate. In 500 he points out that he has not voted Raf, which Raf points out is scummy since SO has been pushing for Raf's lynch. In 529 he claims to have strong views that don't need to be heard yet. With Raf at -1 to lynch, in post 529 he now makes his "strong views" known, which is that Raf is scum. He later hammers.
Overall, SomeOne took a strong stance that Raf was town, then took no stance at all while everyone else made their decision, then took a strong stance that Raf was scum.
Regarding SpotofPrey:
In post 621 he makes his first assessment of Spot day 2, which is that there is "no way" SoP is scum because mafia Spot would bus mafia AK. In 627 he says atacking Spot based solely on the belief that he's lying is WIFOM and stupid; yet the only reason he so firmly believes Spot is not mafia is his belief that Spot is telling the truth. In 710 he goes out of his way to reiterate he does not support Spot's lynch. He returns to Loran being "onto something" with his 'AH is scum because of AK's actions' theory. I really dislike how he uses Loran for street cred here. Lo and behold, in post 717 Some One now thinks Spot is the SK despite being recently admant against his lynch and never even considering the possibility of an SK spot previously. In 743, the wagon on Spot is floundering an he defaults back to AH. In 778 he reiterates that Spot could be SK, but in 795 he now says Spot's actions are "fine".
Overall, SomeOne was against Spot's wagon until it looked like Spot might be lynched. Then he jumped on it, and jumped off again as soon as it was clear Spot wasn't getting lynched.
Individually scummy stuff:
SomeOne has commented on other people's arguments, but the only original analysis he has offered is metagaming-based comments, and without even noting specific behavior. Metagaming may be useful when you can identify a specific behavior a player makes as scum or town and then compare, but all SomeOne's comments are general "playing different" or "playing the same" comparissons.
Despite being very lurky (the offense he attacked AH for over and over) he basically ignored AK early on, saying he's always scummy. (post 355) In post 495 he's supicious of AK, but that's about all he says about him until AK bites back circa post 535. His push on AK is really weak, as is AK's push on him. In my opinion, the whole exchange looks a lot more like distancing than genuine pressure from either of them.
Twice, in post 400 and in post 525, Roja has put pressure on Some One and his response was deflection.
Post 576 - Wants to know all night actions. Doesn't know if that info should actually be revealed, but "opening it for discussion".
Post 582 - Says everyone without an accounted night action must be scum (which is dumb and he later retracts this, claiming he didn't read the setup correctly). Conviently, AH is in this group.
Yare:
583 - Suspicious of Yare's night choice.
629 - Ditto.
645 - Responses to Yare's mini case against him are weak. (Except #4)
647 - Explicilty OMGUS votes Yare. This is truly an OMGUS since the reasons he's given are all things he had previously stated, and there's really no knew reason to justify the vote at the time beyond being attacked.
778 - Says Yare and AH could be last two mafia with Spot as SK.
Post 802 - Avoids commenting on DYH's case. Specifically, he comments on DYH but doesn't actually address any of the behavioral points brought up by either Kraj or Axelrod.
Some One has been a big pile of fence sit and waffles. Every strong stance he has actually taken he has later reversed according to the general consensus of the town. He has contributed next to nothing of his own ideas and his analysis has consisted almost completely of weak metagaming.
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The case on Some One is interesting. The variance and flip-flopping are pretty surprising - I know SO has had a couple 180s so far in the game, but I didn't know there were so many.
I still like my vote on Yare, but I will probably switch to SO if he can't come up with an answer.
I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at with that last statement, Roja. What exactly are you insinuating it is that Axel is doing? It seems quite obvious to me that he thought he was right before and that regardless of his alignment he would come in and continue the same train of thought - I believe I said as much earlier. There's nothing to see there beyond WIFOM.
You are correct it is all WIFOM however we do have the "issue" of a past player rejoining the game. To me this is a first. However this player isn't rejoining as their old self. He is someone completely different.. And I think that changes a lot of things. We know that the first time his attacks were made he was town. (Well we know that now.) The motivation seems like revenge however it could be totally different. Basicly i'll trust old Axel's words because we know they are from a townie, his words now, i'll have to read into deeper.
Still content with my vote on AH, but refresh my memory Roja - why are you suspicious of GT's choice (now Axel) and not Yare's selection? (or if you are, it's clearly to a lesser extent since he's not mentioned) What do you think about Kraj's choice of a target?
I don't agree with Yare using his ability at all. It does NOTHING but create a world of WIFOM. I believe Yare's selection at least makes some sence... (If you want to use your ability that is..) where he targeted a townie with no night ability for a "no effect". This over GT who basicly wasted his ability as well. I guess it also has to do with the importance of the roles. As a randomizer I expect crap to happen and everyone try to pick up the pieces. As the Faith healer, I expect GT (now Axel) to at least make good choices and not throw the ability away.
And because Kraj's target has changed I can say I 100% agree with it. I have gotten nothing from Some one all game however only left him alone incase of the rare chance we need him to survive that and the main conversation was flowing in another direction.
That would not actually be a gambit. It might be considered a stroke of luck for me (as scum vs. a town DYH) that I misguidedly went after him on day one and my previous (errorneous) position can now be used to my (scum) advantage - but that would be about it.
It's not a plus or a minus for me right now. At most all I can say is that when you look at what I was saying on Day 1, at least you know that was genuine.
I think because you are someone totally new it can be a minus for you. Your target of DYH hasen't changed and I guess that is a good thing because im sure people might be calling you out if you didn't. However you are now a different person now saying the same thing as a dead townie did. We each need to take it as we see fit.
The case on Some One is interesting. The variance and flip-flopping are pretty surprising - I know SO has had a couple 180s so far in the game, but I didn't know there were so many.
I still like my vote on Yare, but I will probably switch to SO if he can't come up with an answer.
I was honestly surprised too at how he looked when evaluating all his posts in sequence.
Would you mind reiterating why you're voting Yare?
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I'm on vacation now and won't be back until next week. I really don't want to spend my vacation inside defending myself, especially if I'll end up lynched anyway.
When I flip town, it will become increasingly apparent that DYH and AH are scum.
That's a solid case Kraj has drawn up there. The most telling portion that his opinion changes seem solely based on the mood of the group as opposed to any logical thought-process.
I'm still less than impressed with AH's contributions and his ties to AK's eleventh-hour change to Axelrod for Raf's shot selection.
I'd like to hear what SO has to say for himself before going any further.
And that's what happens when I go to break and finish up a post without previewing. Still waiting on SO's full defense, but the above response is hardly inspiring.
Still waiting on SO's full defense, but the above response is hardly inspiring.
If I wanted to be inspiring, you would know. I'm just saying I'm not going to spend my vacation defending myself - it's not exactly a top priority at the moment for me - slow computer, broken shift key I have to bash, 80 degree and sunny weather, I want to get outside a bit...it's vacation you know...
You weren't clear, but I'm going to assume you're asking me whether or not there is anything scummy about AH's points. The answer is yes, there are things AH has done that are scummy. However, I am ok with a lot of what you pointed out.
Yes, this is OK. At the time he made this post, I agreed 100% that Spot was the most scummy. I disagreed with his assessment of you, but I don't think it was unreasonable at all. Putting himself as least scummy on the list is an extremely weak scum tell at best; I consider it a non-tell, just like when someone lists themselves as scum.
I'd like AH to elaborate on this before I say anything.
The analysis provided here is humbling. In other words, what's your point?
Again, I'd like AH to elaborate on this before I say anything. I have my own opinions on these points but I'd rather hear what AH has to say.
Agreed, this probably the most perfect example of WIFOM logic I've ever encountered in a game, and I can see a motivation for scum to push Spot the way AH did here. So in this case it's a scum tell. But look at a counter example. AH also used awful logic to push on RafK before he fired. Why would a scum, who was very close to being killed, not only be vocally against killing the only other player who was being considered (who was town) without even identifying another target, but go so far as to attack the very townie who has the power to kill him? That behavior makes zero sense as scum.
That's my overall point. AH has done some scummy things but he has also done a fair number of things that don't make sense as scum. He's obviously not the paragon of pro-townieness, but I think the town can do better today.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
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For instance, if the truth of the matter is that Akid was acting normal for scum, and Axel was acting normal for town, and then DYH more often than not could pick out scum and town, then DYH seems like a good target for a lynch. On the other hand, if both individuals were acting significantly different than usual, I don't feel nearly as comfortable voting for DYH because how could someone who so rightfully noted stark contrasts in individual's behavior be in the wrong when he was really trying to be in the right?
I see what you mean regarding AH, but I want to do a read of him and see how far the "wouldn't make sense as scum" really could potentially go.
He plays extremely analytically day one. He has his early game vote, and his vote on RafK (both were town). However, his one and only vote since that time, came in that post 614. What I don't like is how sharply it constrasts from his previous play style because it used faulty logic to arrive at the vote of a player Axel made us realize is more likely than not town. That being said, I think it's a little too much to say that AH's behavior makes no sense as scum because his day 1 behavior is incredible for scum in the way it contained a thorough understanding of the game of mafia combined with entirely reasonable votes that just so happened to be on townies.
The point I am getting at is that AH day 1 seems like an entirely different person than the AH who made post 614, and that being said, if he is scum, that post has been his only slip thus far. Note how logical he acts, argues, etc. day 1, and then how this one post containing his 3rd vote of the game contains more faulty and inaccurate logic than non-faulty logic.
It's missing because it's irrelevant. I'm not talking about what the busdriver can do. I'm talking about spot of prey (and Mini's) thoughts and motivations.
Wrong. I'm still here. I don't play obsessively. I play for fun.
I'm reading over and over that my argument against spot is WIFOM. What I'm talking about is spot's perception of the future one night ago. At that point he was facing an unknown, and WIFOM decisions had to play a part in his future action. It's not about whether or not someone was going to do something. It's about how his action minimized the negatives of those unknowns and maximized the gain from the position of a mafia member. Spot ultimately failed, but that has nothing to do with it. And the fact that the outcome was so positive for the town makes me all the more positive that spot is telling the truth about what he did, and lying about why.
This comment from a guy that with an impending deadline decides to choose a third target for us to shoot.. The shooter himself..
Just because I'm interested where this could go -
If I'm lying about why I chose my targets, what do you think was my "real" reasoning for the targets I chose?
Please help me understand why that decision made any sence. I know I didn't think there was any logic in it.
I think there are reasons we could off a number of people
SoP's explanation for his choices
AH's just general lurky nature in addition to his choice of accusing RafK prior to the Axelrod kill
GT's idiotic play
Some One's numerous references to his hypothetically being the SK and then challenging me to randomize him, like that would matter if he were the SK
DYH for his generally scummy play
Me for my "bad" choice of randomizing Loran.
Honestly, I don't think we're going to get much better than that in terms of analysis. My order of preference would be, from most scummy to least scummy:
AH
DYH
Axelrod
Some One
SoP
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And a huge FYI that i'll be out of town this Wednesday-Friday. So don't expect me to post or say anything.
Vote AH
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Same. I think absence during these days will be almost universal though, so I don't think there will be any issues.
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Dont need any accidents over the holidays without me seeing what happens..
Also the more I think about it the more I think i'll have a vote on DYH when I get back.
Do what? I was responding to your request to show where I established my position on AK. It's the reason I didn't pursue him day one, yes; AK did not play his usual scum game - rather than actively post and place poorly-backed votes on people who weren't going to be lynched, he lurked through much of the day.
@Kraj: AK's jump to Axelrod is not WIFOM; what apparent townie view could he have hoped to gain by switching his kill-vote over to Axelrod (town)?
@Some One: Feel free to go read any other game where Axel-the-first has been town and compare it to his behavior in this one. They don't line up. The only behavior that was even remotely similar was in Elegant mafia, but there were night actions which bore out the truth of his story there.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
(I will be back to the thread when my cable gets installed. I am off work next week, so I won't be posting from here, so it's up to comcast. See you soon - I hope!)
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Let's start with your orginal quote:
Ok so I am looking for bad logic/poor attacks with AK, and even though his activity in this game was awful.
OK lets start with AK attacking me asking a question to Axel. He clearly takes my words out of context and tried to flip it against me. When I even stated I DONT UNDERSTAND.. After I reply he backs off.
In this little spat between AK and Gifts, AK is voting for AH because he's being ridiculous. When Gifts strikes back saying that crazy does not equal scum AK's defense is that it "Dosent make sence.." AK falling off another horse he tries to start up and has poor defenses with. Also I would like to point out that AK knows that his activity level is poor, which might show something against whatever norm.
Here we have AK switch from AH to Axel mostly because AH is now the same as Rafk in a mind set..? Once again states in both posts he's being lazy. And Ak's reasons for why Axel is scummy? (Well nothing in the actual VOTING post.. ) But it is because Axel made a plan.. Ooooh.. A swing and a miss I believe.
So this interaction with Axel says it all. AK is voting for Axel however wants AH to be shot instead.. to clear Axel.. And another promise for more info we never get..
Yup once again Axel says it all, this isn't great planning from AK.. It's just awful.
I have this here because I started attacking SO about his actions, however now AK just jumps right on with more promises of data that we never see. Granted Ak dies overnight and cannot "get back to us" however it just isn't all that great.
Whew ok So DYH where was it that AK was playing this different game you speak of? Don't forget the 4 or 5 posts that AK promises to post stuff but never does. How can you see these "attacks" or "statements" and still defend that you couldn't catch him because of how different he has played this round?
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
So they were poor attacks on targets that were likely to be lynched then? You do forget the "attacks" on myself and Someone as well. As "poor" as they were they are there.
Merry Christmas everyone!
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
His votes certainly weren't; they were on high-attention players. And much of his focus was on them (AH and Axelrod); not you and Some One. He also was lurking, which he does not historically do as a scum player since he doesn't want to get called out for it. The pattern is entirely there, he played against his scum norm.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
As a result, it really appears as though Akid has no solid scum tells, and thus, I'm not sure how DYH could try to pinpoint them and draw the conclusion Akid is not scum.
Hope everyone had a fun week!
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The Scum norm that YOU yourself are used too yes?
And i'm back, hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday.
Happy New Year!
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
AH
DYH
Axelrod
Some One
Obviously, they're not all scum, but I put them all at a sufficiently probable threshold of scumminess that I would be happy with any of them going.
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DYH
I am being too lazy to look up the actual vote count right now. I'm slowly trying to get back into my games after Christmas craziness.
(2) AH - Yare, DYH
(1) spotofprey - AH
(1) Yare - spotofprey
But now that it's past New Year's, (Happy 2009 everyone) I expect everyone to begin posting regularly again. I would prefer not to have to prod everyone, so...
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Vote: DYH
Actually AH, this holdiay break has given you yet another chance..
After checking back and seeing what Kraj says about your defense, I have to agree with it. It dosne't make any sence at all to vote for you now.
Right now im torn between DYH (And "lack" of scum finding in AK) And Axel (Mostly for GT's protection on someone who cant be protecting.)
Axel, why the vote on DYH? Your reason is what i'm interested in.
Do you mean, "why are you voting just now, when you've been calling him scum for a long time?" Or "Why do you think he's scummy, please restate?"
I'm voting now because the game is dragging and nothing else is happening. I've thought he was scummy since my original incarnation on Day 1. I think my most recent summary was made in THIS post, though there may be other comments after that.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
And why do you think that?
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Could have sworn I voted for AH. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't really feel like going back and trying to find it because the internet I am using here, on vacation, is painfully slow.
The reason I am asking is I am trying to find out if the motive is revenge or you are really scum hunting. You comming back into the game as another role seems can seem fishy for why you are attacking a prior target. Basicly your motives can be different if you are now scum.
Quite a gambit for a now scum player to have been wrong earlier in the game as a townie. Wouldn't you agree?
Still content with my vote on AH, but refresh my memory Roja - why are you suspicious of GT's choice (now Axel) and not Yare's selection? (or if you are, it's clearly to a lesser extent since he's not mentioned) What do you think about Kraj's choice of a target?
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
That would not actually be a gambit. It might be considered a stroke of luck for me (as scum vs. a town DYH) that I misguidedly went after him on day one and my previous (errorneous) position can now be used to my (scum) advantage - but that would be about it.
It's not a plus or a minus for me right now. At most all I can say is that when you look at what I was saying on Day 1, at least you know that was genuine.
The points against DYH are good, but his responses have been reasonable. He has seemingly changed his mind quite a bit, but there has been reasonable basis for him to do so. I'm not going to vote for DYH at this time. Unless I've missed someone, that leaves Yare and Some One. I will still reread Yare, but unless I see something really bad in his posts I will be happy with a
Vote: Some One
Some One has spent the whole game doing little other than sitting firmly on the fence, and making useless metagame arguments. The few times he has taken a strong stance, he ends up reversing his position with little or no basis.
Regarding AH:
Early on his choice for Crazed Fiending is AH (post 303). In 305 he explains why: AH has been actively lurky, going as far as to say that even if AH is town his death with be a positive thing. This is already bad, but in post 350 he says "It's understood attacking the inactive players is going to get you absolutely no where", in post 392 he says that he is against Raf's lynch because Axelrod was actually his preferred target, despite never giving any indication of that whatsoever and constantly harping on AH, and then in post 398 he says that shooting AH based on this criteria would have been a bad thing because so many players were lurking. Nevertheless, he will turn around and push suspicion onto AH in post 463 even though he repeatedly admitted his only criteria for wanting AH dead is no longer valid.
At the start of Day 2, his first action is to resume attacks on AH, who happens to be the only living player to be wagoned day 1, based on the connection to AK Loran pointed out. He later will vote SoP, but as that wagon flounders he defaults back to AH based on the fact that AH's argument that Spot would bus a mafia buddy is ridiculous. In 797 he says "I have a very difficult time saying anyone has been acting scummier than AH has". But the one and only thing he has given as evidence of AH's scumminess is the case on Spot. In 803 he defaults back to a metagame argument.
Overall, SomeOne has flopped back and forth about AH and never provided any real justification for attacking him.
Regarding Raf:
In post 392 he says Raf is town and he is opposed to Raf's lynch. Reason is basically because Axelrod was his pick for being shot. Understands the points against Raf but thinks Yare is scum for making a case on him. Also is suspicious of Spot. Roja finds it suspicious that Some One doesn't have a problem with Raf's actions; SO responds with deflection: 'if you don't like Raf's actions, then attack him, not me'. In post 441, he now is explicitly on the fence about Raf. Two posts later, he says no one who supported AH being CF'd should be under suspicion (I haven't a clue why) and that Raf is scum. No real reasoning to explain the change of heart. Doesn't want to vote yet, though. Prompts others to make their stances known while keeping his own close to the vest. In 463 he pushes Raf's wagon and tosses suspicion onto AH, whom he had been defending. In 482 and 487, he now makes posts defending Raf, which he will later claim was simply playing Devil's Advocate. In 500 he points out that he has not voted Raf, which Raf points out is scummy since SO has been pushing for Raf's lynch. In 529 he claims to have strong views that don't need to be heard yet. With Raf at -1 to lynch, in post 529 he now makes his "strong views" known, which is that Raf is scum. He later hammers.
Overall, SomeOne took a strong stance that Raf was town, then took no stance at all while everyone else made their decision, then took a strong stance that Raf was scum.
Regarding SpotofPrey:
In post 621 he makes his first assessment of Spot day 2, which is that there is "no way" SoP is scum because mafia Spot would bus mafia AK. In 627 he says atacking Spot based solely on the belief that he's lying is WIFOM and stupid; yet the only reason he so firmly believes Spot is not mafia is his belief that Spot is telling the truth. In 710 he goes out of his way to reiterate he does not support Spot's lynch. He returns to Loran being "onto something" with his 'AH is scum because of AK's actions' theory. I really dislike how he uses Loran for street cred here. Lo and behold, in post 717 Some One now thinks Spot is the SK despite being recently admant against his lynch and never even considering the possibility of an SK spot previously. In 743, the wagon on Spot is floundering an he defaults back to AH. In 778 he reiterates that Spot could be SK, but in 795 he now says Spot's actions are "fine".
Overall, SomeOne was against Spot's wagon until it looked like Spot might be lynched. Then he jumped on it, and jumped off again as soon as it was clear Spot wasn't getting lynched.
Individually scummy stuff:
SomeOne has commented on other people's arguments, but the only original analysis he has offered is metagaming-based comments, and without even noting specific behavior. Metagaming may be useful when you can identify a specific behavior a player makes as scum or town and then compare, but all SomeOne's comments are general "playing different" or "playing the same" comparissons.
Despite being very lurky (the offense he attacked AH for over and over) he basically ignored AK early on, saying he's always scummy. (post 355) In post 495 he's supicious of AK, but that's about all he says about him until AK bites back circa post 535. His push on AK is really weak, as is AK's push on him. In my opinion, the whole exchange looks a lot more like distancing than genuine pressure from either of them.
Twice, in post 400 and in post 525, Roja has put pressure on Some One and his response was deflection.
Post 576 - Wants to know all night actions. Doesn't know if that info should actually be revealed, but "opening it for discussion".
Post 582 - Says everyone without an accounted night action must be scum (which is dumb and he later retracts this, claiming he didn't read the setup correctly). Conviently, AH is in this group.
Yare:
583 - Suspicious of Yare's night choice.
629 - Ditto.
645 - Responses to Yare's mini case against him are weak. (Except #4)
647 - Explicilty OMGUS votes Yare. This is truly an OMGUS since the reasons he's given are all things he had previously stated, and there's really no knew reason to justify the vote at the time beyond being attacked.
778 - Says Yare and AH could be last two mafia with Spot as SK.
Post 802 - Avoids commenting on DYH's case. Specifically, he comments on DYH but doesn't actually address any of the behavioral points brought up by either Kraj or Axelrod.
Some One has been a big pile of fence sit and waffles. Every strong stance he has actually taken he has later reversed according to the general consensus of the town. He has contributed next to nothing of his own ideas and his analysis has consisted almost completely of weak metagaming.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
I still like my vote on Yare, but I will probably switch to SO if he can't come up with an answer.
You are correct it is all WIFOM however we do have the "issue" of a past player rejoining the game. To me this is a first. However this player isn't rejoining as their old self. He is someone completely different.. And I think that changes a lot of things. We know that the first time his attacks were made he was town. (Well we know that now.) The motivation seems like revenge however it could be totally different. Basicly i'll trust old Axel's words because we know they are from a townie, his words now, i'll have to read into deeper.
I don't agree with Yare using his ability at all. It does NOTHING but create a world of WIFOM. I believe Yare's selection at least makes some sence... (If you want to use your ability that is..) where he targeted a townie with no night ability for a "no effect". This over GT who basicly wasted his ability as well. I guess it also has to do with the importance of the roles. As a randomizer I expect crap to happen and everyone try to pick up the pieces. As the Faith healer, I expect GT (now Axel) to at least make good choices and not throw the ability away.
And because Kraj's target has changed I can say I 100% agree with it. I have gotten nothing from Some one all game however only left him alone incase of the rare chance we need him to survive that and the main conversation was flowing in another direction.
I think because you are someone totally new it can be a minus for you. Your target of DYH hasen't changed and I guess that is a good thing because im sure people might be calling you out if you didn't. However you are now a different person now saying the same thing as a dead townie did. We each need to take it as we see fit.
What was the question?
I'll wait for SO to say anything in his defense but consider this a vote for him at this time.
I was honestly surprised too at how he looked when evaluating all his posts in sequence.
Would you mind reiterating why you're voting Yare?
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
When I flip town, it will become increasingly apparent that DYH and AH are scum.
I'm still less than impressed with AH's contributions and his ties to AK's eleventh-hour change to Axelrod for Raf's shot selection.
I'd like to hear what SO has to say for himself before going any further.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
And that's what happens when I go to break and finish up a post without previewing. Still waiting on SO's full defense, but the above response is hardly inspiring.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
If I wanted to be inspiring, you would know. I'm just saying I'm not going to spend my vacation defending myself - it's not exactly a top priority at the moment for me - slow computer, broken shift key I have to bash, 80 degree and sunny weather, I want to get outside a bit...it's vacation you know...