Magic Market Index for April 19, 2019

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/18 04/11 04/04 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $3.01$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
Buy-A-Box Promo: $30.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total Set Value: $286.64$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
Booster Box EV: $135.53$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
Hit Over Miss: 200%0%0%0%200.35%200.35%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/18 04/11 04/04 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God $24.04
Gideon Blackblade $16.35
Liliana, Dreadhorde General $14.97
Teferi, Time Raveler $14.20
Ilharg, the Raze-Boar $12.31
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/18 04/11 04/04 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God $24.04
Gideon Blackblade $16.35
Liliana, Dreadhorde General $14.97
Teferi, Time Raveler $14.20
Ilharg, the Raze-Boar $12.31
Finale of Devastation $11.45
God-Eternal Kefnet $10.16
Gideon, the Oathsworn $9.95
Jace, Arcane Strategist $9.27
Karn, the Great Creator $8.92
Finale of Promise $8.01
Ugin, the Ineffable $7.07
God-Eternal Oketra $7.00
Blast Zone $5.60
Finale of Revelation $5.25
God-Eternal Rhonas $4.87
Finale of Glory $4.55
God-Eternal Bontu $4.52
Feather, the Redeemed $4.34
The Elderspell $4.24
Roalesk, Apex Hybrid $3.97
Finale of Eternity $3.86
Dreadhorde Arcanist $3.72
Ral, Storm Conduit $3.70
Bolas's Citadel $3.33
Vivien's Arkbow $3.22
Narset's Reversal $3.12
Karn's Bastion $3.06
Niv-Mizzet Reborn $2.88
Vivien, Champion of the Wilds $2.75
Sarkhan the Masterless $2.74
Jace, Wielder of Mysteries $2.62
Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord $2.61
Nissa, Who Shakes the World $2.48
Spark Double $2.23
Dreadhorde Butcher $2.15
Domri, Anarch of Bolas $2.05
 
Commentary
Ravnica's War has been unleashed, and we begin our index chronicling at the height of preorder madness. Prices are so inflated at the moment that even the no-top-cards miss boxes break even with cost. The forecast is obvious: we'll be trending down to a more realistic valuation until release.

Predictions as to where individual cards might go are all over the place, and giving you my thoughts would only add to the cacaphony of conjecture. For now, know that little is certain and the overall trend will be downwards. Bet on single cards only if you're willing to take a real risk. If you're in a place where you can presale before release, this is the best time to lock in as much as you can.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.11$2.10$2.07$2.01$0.01$0.09
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.89$4.26$3.60$3.60-$0.37$0.29
Total Set Value: $180.32$179.64$176.33$174.31$0.68$6.01
Booster Box EV: $92.22$91.29$88.94$88.47$0.94$3.75
Hit Over Miss: 239%241%235%235%-2.22%4.32%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $16.69$15.10$11.25$8.80$1.59$7.89
Hydroid Krasis $18.82$20.34$21.27$22.04-$1.52-$3.22
Seraph of the Scales $5.97$6.55$6.36$7.39-$0.58-$1.42
Bedevil $3.77$4.21$4.17$4.26-$0.44-$0.49
Domri, Chaos Bringer $3.77$3.36$3.30$3.47$0.41$0.30
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $18.82$20.34$21.27$22.04-$1.52-$3.22
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $16.69$15.10$11.25$8.80$1.59$7.89
Breeding Pool $10.80$10.73$11.49$11.11$0.07-$0.31
Smothering Tithe $10.15$10.32$9.16$4.29-$0.17$5.86
Stomping Ground $8.83$8.77$8.71$8.72$0.06$0.11
Godless Shrine $8.68$8.66$8.49$8.58$0.02$0.10
Blood Crypt $8.54$8.82$8.81$8.66-$0.28-$0.12
Hallowed Fountain $7.11$6.77$7.13$7.21$0.34-$0.10
Seraph of the Scales $5.97$6.55$6.36$7.39-$0.58-$1.42
Prime Speaker Vannifar $5.15$5.33$5.37$5.94-$0.18-$0.79
Biogenic Ooze $4.88$4.86$5.41$5.56$0.02-$0.68
Bedevil $3.77$4.21$4.17$4.26-$0.44-$0.49
Domri, Chaos Bringer $3.77$3.36$3.30$3.47$0.41$0.30
Spawn of Mayhem $3.26$3.59$3.99$4.43-$0.33-$1.17
Dovin, Grand Arbiter $3.05$3.19$3.60$3.89-$0.14-$0.84
Incubation Druid $3.01$2.92$2.92$2.96$0.09$0.05
Skarrgan Hellkite $2.97$3.24$3.34$3.59-$0.27-$0.62
Angel of Grace $2.53$2.50$2.79$2.76$0.03-$0.23
Tithe Taker $2.04$1.80$1.62$1.60$0.24$0.44
Light Up the Stage $2.02$1.65$1.59$1.91$0.37$0.11
Kaya's Wrath $2.00$1.91$1.95$2.12$0.09-$0.12
Deputy of Detention $2.00$2.08$2.02$2.20-$0.08-$0.20
 
Commentary
Allegiance didn't have any major card changes this week, with Kaya and Krasis slowing their trends. Small change is welcome here; we're still in a very comfortable location. Estimated value is above cost, and our hit-over-miss indicates some fairly stable returns. Although many of Standard's other sets have fallen in the past few weeks, Allegiance stands strong. Don't let the War hype overwhelm and distract you from the solid sales you can still have here.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.14$2.15$2.20$2.27-$0.01-$0.13
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.80$3.39$3.17$3.17$0.41$0.63
Total Set Value: $172.01$172.17$178.15$186.05-$0.16-$14.04
Booster Box EV: $87.19$88.97$90.51$98.18-$1.78-$10.99
Hit Over Miss: 219%215%223%223%3.79%-4.55%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Assassin's Trophy $10.56$9.61$9.97$10.25$0.95$0.31
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $1.71$2.58$3.28$3.68-$0.87-$1.97
Arclight Phoenix $15.69$16.53$21.00$23.04-$0.84-$7.35
Overgrown Tomb $5.01$5.49$6.08$6.14-$0.48-$1.13
Legion Warboss $2.28$2.72$2.31$2.35-$0.44-$0.07
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $15.69$16.53$21.00$23.04-$0.84-$7.35
Steam Vents $11.53$11.22$11.25$11.62$0.31-$0.09
Watery Grave $11.08$10.77$10.76$10.07$0.31$1.01
Assassin's Trophy $10.56$9.61$9.97$10.25$0.95$0.31
Divine Visitation $7.46$7.66$6.96$7.45-$0.20$0.01
Sacred Foundry $6.64$6.71$6.64$6.66-$0.07-$0.02
Doom Whisperer $6.35$6.46$6.81$7.38-$0.11-$1.03
Temple Garden $5.39$5.05$5.09$5.09$0.34$0.30
Overgrown Tomb $5.01$5.49$6.08$6.14-$0.48-$1.13
Chromatic Lantern $4.95$5.09$4.64$4.56-$0.14$0.39
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.80$4.62$4.85$4.69$0.18$0.11
Thief of Sanity $4.75$4.91$4.60$4.61-$0.16$0.14
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $4.43$4.37$4.55$4.50$0.06-$0.07
Risk Factor $4.02$3.99$3.80$4.29$0.03-$0.27
March of the Multitudes $3.58$3.53$3.51$3.50$0.05$0.08
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $3.19$3.03$3.17$3.15$0.16$0.04
Expansion // Explosion $3.11$2.88$2.70$2.61$0.23$0.50
Knight of Autumn $3.06$2.67$2.88$3.17$0.39-$0.11
Thousand-Year Storm $2.99$2.83$2.74$2.81$0.16$0.18
Beast Whisperer $2.84$3.06$2.79$2.76-$0.22$0.08
Nullhide Ferox $2.60$2.71$3.05$3.30-$0.11-$0.70
Legion Warboss $2.28$2.72$2.31$2.35-$0.44-$0.07
Trostani Discordant $2.20$2.20$1.89$2.20$0.00$0.00
Midnight Reaper $2.19$2.49$2.56$2.74-$0.30-$0.55
 
Commentary
Guilds also saw very little major movements this past week. There are a myriad of changes, but almost all of them are minor and the net results balances itself out. Guilds is still teetering on the cusp between chance and profit, and we're at the point that a full retail box will probably give you a small loss.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.35$1.36$1.42$1.37-$0.01-$0.02
Buy-A-Box Promo: $16.93$17.62$17.58$17.58-$0.69-$0.65
Total Set Value: $151.84$151.99$157.61$152.31-$0.15-$0.47
Booster Box EV: $58.10$57.56$60.73$58.95$0.54-$0.85
Hit Over Miss: 269%269%269%284%-0.09%-15.37%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $15.85$16.85$19.07$21.01-$1.00-$5.16
Crucible of Worlds $14.82$13.85$13.72$13.15$0.97$1.67
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $18.55$17.73$16.48$16.25$0.82$2.30
Arcades, the Strategist $5.80$6.59$7.04$7.12-$0.79-$1.32
Scapeshift $8.15$7.69$6.91$6.83$0.46$1.32
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $18.55$17.73$16.48$16.25$0.82$2.30
Vivien Reid $15.85$16.85$19.07$21.01-$1.00-$5.16
Crucible of Worlds $14.82$13.85$13.72$13.15$0.97$1.67
Liliana, Untouched by Death $9.70$10.05$11.37$4.07-$0.35$5.63
Resplendent Angel $9.11$9.53$9.29$9.51-$0.42-$0.40
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $8.91$9.13$9.63$10.69-$0.22-$1.78
Scapeshift $8.15$7.69$6.91$6.83$0.46$1.32
Sarkhan, Fireblood $6.91$6.98$7.09$7.16-$0.07-$0.25
Omniscience $6.06$5.67$5.74$5.78$0.39$0.28
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.88$5.85$5.53$5.48$0.03$0.40
Arcades, the Strategist $5.80$6.59$7.04$7.12-$0.79-$1.32
Death Baron $3.26$3.19$2.59$1.92$0.07$1.34
Cleansing Nova $2.75$2.68$3.21$3.58$0.07-$0.83
Elvish Clancaller $2.53$2.52$2.72$2.60$0.01-$0.07
Reliquary Tower $2.21$2.22$1.98$2.09-$0.01$0.12
 
Commentary
Grixis decks have gained some real momentum with War's meta outlook, forcing another rise in Nicol Bolas, the Ravager. Although our meta is still highly in flux, of course, the outlook for Grixis is extremely good. Bolas may very well continue to rise. Liliana, on the other hand, is coming down from her zombie-hype spike. Her outlook isn't as promising, but we're nowhere near a point of writing cards off.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.61$1.67$1.82$1.76-$0.06-$0.15
Buy-A-Box Promo: $2.94$2.22$2.12$2.12$0.72$0.82
Total Set Value: $163.38$167.18$181.11$176.65-$3.80-$13.27
Booster Box EV: $67.24$68.42$78.34$76.02-$1.19-$8.79
Hit Over Miss: 374%363%339%338%10.95%36.6%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Sulfur Falls $3.59$5.79$6.80$6.63-$2.20-$3.04
Lyra Dawnbringer $7.96$9.24$10.47$10.86-$1.28-$2.90
Goblin Chainwhirler $0.93$1.90$3.00$2.86-$0.97-$1.93
History of Benalia $3.98$4.64$5.98$5.94-$0.66-$1.96
Karn, Scion of Urza $17.25$16.65$17.43$16.96$0.60$0.29
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $35.70$36.08$36.90$36.99-$0.38-$1.29
Karn, Scion of Urza $17.25$16.65$17.43$16.96$0.60$0.29
Mox Amber $15.98$16.17$15.83$14.72-$0.19$1.26
Lyra Dawnbringer $7.96$9.24$10.47$10.86-$1.28-$2.90
Hinterland Harbor $5.49$5.21$5.93$5.09$0.28$0.40
Isolated Chapel $5.08$4.84$5.02$4.77$0.24$0.31
Helm of the Host $4.23$4.22$3.94$3.65$0.01$0.58
History of Benalia $3.98$4.64$5.98$5.94-$0.66-$1.96
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.66$3.44$3.58$3.47$0.22$0.19
Clifftop Retreat $3.60$3.65$3.39$3.44-$0.05$0.16
Sulfur Falls $3.59$5.79$6.80$6.63-$2.20-$3.04
Gilded Lotus $3.33$3.35$3.08$3.05-$0.02$0.28
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.89$2.82$2.89$3.06$0.07-$0.17
Oath of Teferi $2.27$2.48$3.01$2.85-$0.21-$0.58
Woodland Cemetery $2.06$2.29$3.43$3.74-$0.23-$1.68
 
Commentary
Dominaria saw mostly red this week, as decline won out in the plethora of small changes. Karn, Scion of Urza is the notable exception, and with War bringing several new options for colorless and artifact-based decks, he could once again threaten the top spots. One of the less predictable changes was Sulfur Falls. With the newest push on Grixis, one would assume Sulfur Falls would at least maintain its standing. I would expect this to bounce back, but then again - I wouldn't have expected this to take a hit right now either.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.77$1.87$1.93$1.95-$0.10-$0.18
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.20$0.19$0.15$0.15$0.01$0.05
Total Set Value: $158.68$166.67$172.51$174.68-$7.99-$16.00
Booster Box EV: $77.03$82.52$85.89$86.74-$5.49-$9.71
Hit Over Miss: 253%247%247%247%6.69%6.63%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $7.68$11.47$14.37$14.18-$3.79-$6.50
Jadelight Ranger $1.59$2.90$3.91$4.41-$1.31-$2.82
Etali, Primal Storm $4.92$4.30$4.55$4.36$0.62$0.56
The Immortal Sun $27.53$28.15$27.56$27.30-$0.62$0.23
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $11.66$12.18$12.50$13.55-$0.52-$1.89
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
The Immortal Sun $27.53$28.15$27.56$27.30-$0.62$0.23
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $11.66$12.18$12.50$13.55-$0.52-$1.89
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $9.82$9.31$8.96$9.58$0.51$0.24
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.87$9.19$8.54$9.31-$0.32-$0.44
Rekindling Phoenix $7.68$11.47$14.37$14.18-$3.79-$6.50
Twilight Prophet $7.23$7.17$7.09$7.22$0.06$0.01
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $6.45$6.78$7.27$7.29-$0.33-$0.84
Wayward Swordtooth $5.47$5.44$5.32$5.14$0.03$0.33
Etali, Primal Storm $4.92$4.30$4.55$4.36$0.62$0.56
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.41$4.55$4.47$4.46-$0.14-$0.05
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $3.52$3.89$3.84$3.98-$0.37-$0.46
Journey to Eternity $3.13$3.16$3.13$3.25-$0.03-$0.12
Azor's Gateway $3.11$3.27$3.33$3.44-$0.16-$0.33
Polyraptor $3.09$3.03$3.02$2.91$0.06$0.18
Tendershoot Dryad $2.63$2.65$2.91$3.10-$0.02-$0.47
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.53$2.71$2.87$2.92-$0.18-$0.39
Hadana's Climb $2.32$2.78$3.48$3.62-$0.46-$1.30
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.31$2.61$2.72$2.64-$0.30-$0.33
Curious Obsession $2.15$2.18$2.40$2.65-$0.03-$0.50
 
Commentary
Rivals has now followed its predecessor solidly into the no-box-flip zone. The Ravnica trilogy has brought a new lineup of strong cards to the meta, and the reliance on the power of Ixalan block has dwindled. We've seen a month of decline in Rivals, and we're officially at the point where the only target for investment is in singular cards.
Set Overview
Metric 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.66$1.71$1.78$1.75-$0.05-$0.09
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.25$0.20$0.24$0.24$0.05$0.01
Total Set Value: $156.83$160.97$169.70$168.21-$4.14-$11.38
Booster Box EV: $74.03$76.97$84.95$85.37-$2.94-$11.34
Hit Over Miss: 211%208%205%203%3.57%8.1%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Entrancing Melody $0.60$2.30$3.09$3.25-$1.70-$2.65
Vraska, Relic Seeker $1.82$2.73$3.52$4.02-$0.91-$2.20
Legion's Landing $2.03$2.81$4.11$4.08-$0.78-$2.05
Vraska's Contempt $7.59$8.18$7.87$7.55-$0.59$0.04
Glacial Fortress $5.17$5.70$5.34$5.97-$0.53-$0.80
Top Cards
Card 04/18 04/11 04/04 03/28 ± Week ± Month
Search for Azcanta $14.35$14.40$14.45$13.50-$0.05$0.85
Carnage Tyrant $12.44$12.23$13.28$13.16$0.21-$0.72
Vraska's Contempt $7.59$8.18$7.87$7.55-$0.59$0.04
Drowned Catacomb $6.32$6.32$6.43$6.42$0.00-$0.10
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.19$6.07$6.40$5.48$0.12$0.71
Treasure Map $5.49$5.58$5.52$4.93-$0.09$0.56
Glacial Fortress $5.17$5.70$5.34$5.97-$0.53-$0.80
Hostage Taker $4.98$4.82$5.04$5.12$0.16-$0.14
Star of Extinction $4.74$4.46$4.79$4.48$0.28$0.26
Dragonskull Summit $4.20$4.34$4.35$4.43-$0.14-$0.23
Primal Amulet $4.04$3.78$3.72$3.84$0.26$0.20
Vanquisher's Banner $4.02$4.30$4.44$4.44-$0.28-$0.42
Settle the Wreckage $3.97$3.84$3.71$4.04$0.13-$0.07
Rootbound Crag $3.77$3.99$4.11$3.84-$0.22-$0.07
Sunpetal Grove $3.39$3.40$3.57$3.90-$0.01-$0.51
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $3.14$3.05$3.23$3.07$0.09$0.07
Field of Ruin $2.82$2.68$2.54$2.74$0.14$0.08
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.77$2.61$2.48$2.07$0.16$0.70
Siren Stormtamer $2.69$2.82$2.80$2.93-$0.13-$0.24
Sorcerous Spyglass $2.59$2.74$2.62$2.22-$0.15$0.37
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.35$2.35$2.18$2.35$0.00$0.00
Revel in Riches $2.26$2.02$2.23$2.07$0.24$0.19
Thaumatic Compass $2.19$2.15$2.24$2.27$0.04-$0.08
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.12$2.21$2.25$2.31-$0.09-$0.19
Legion's Landing $2.03$2.81$4.11$4.08-$0.78-$2.05
 
Commentary
Ixalan is in the same position as Rivals, with the difference being Ixalan is leading the decline. Even cards that have been holding steady for months are now seeing decline. Vraska's Contempt is at its lowest price in over a year, and many of its Rivals brethren are in a similar position. Pay attention to the coming deck changes, as only cards that will gain new traction in the coming meta shift can counter the decline.

Parting Thoughts...

We're at that precarious point where a new set threatens to upend the established meta, but nothing concrete has yet to emerge. As a result, individual card predictions are all over the place. Someone with a keen eye could invest with strong returns, but most predictions will fall flat. A few key decks appear to be taking off, such as Grixis Discard/Control, but individual cards within them are still subject to change. Know that investing in specific cards is a gamble, so devote only the resources you're willing to risk. For now, focus on the tried and true, and get in on the War presale action as much as you can.

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