Magic Market Index for April 12, 2019

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.10$2.07$2.01$2.06$0.03$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $4.26$3.60$3.60$6.60$0.66-$2.34
Total Set Value: $179.64$176.33$174.31$179.71$3.31-$0.07
Booster Box EV: $91.29$88.94$88.47$90.91$2.35$0.37
Hit Over Miss: 241%235%235%235%6.56%5.78%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $15.10$11.25$8.80$8.04$3.85$7.06
Smothering Tithe $10.32$9.16$4.29$4.08$1.16$6.24
Hydroid Krasis $20.34$21.27$22.04$24.18-$0.93-$3.84
Breeding Pool $10.73$11.49$11.11$11.44-$0.76-$0.71
Biogenic Ooze $4.86$5.41$5.56$6.26-$0.55-$1.40
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $20.34$21.27$22.04$24.18-$0.93-$3.84
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $15.10$11.25$8.80$8.04$3.85$7.06
Breeding Pool $10.73$11.49$11.11$11.44-$0.76-$0.71
Smothering Tithe $10.32$9.16$4.29$4.08$1.16$6.24
Blood Crypt $8.82$8.81$8.66$8.86$0.01-$0.04
Stomping Ground $8.77$8.71$8.72$8.41$0.06$0.36
Godless Shrine $8.66$8.49$8.58$8.32$0.17$0.34
Hallowed Fountain $6.77$7.13$7.21$7.31-$0.36-$0.54
Seraph of the Scales $6.55$6.36$7.39$7.77$0.19-$1.22
Prime Speaker Vannifar $5.33$5.37$5.94$6.60-$0.04-$1.27
Biogenic Ooze $4.86$5.41$5.56$6.26-$0.55-$1.40
Bedevil $4.21$4.17$4.26$3.82$0.04$0.39
Spawn of Mayhem $3.59$3.99$4.43$4.51-$0.40-$0.92
Domri, Chaos Bringer $3.36$3.30$3.47$3.31$0.06$0.05
Skarrgan Hellkite $3.24$3.34$3.59$3.87-$0.10-$0.63
Dovin, Grand Arbiter $3.19$3.60$3.89$4.18-$0.41-$0.99
Incubation Druid $2.92$2.92$2.96$2.85$0.00$0.07
Angel of Grace $2.50$2.79$2.76$2.92-$0.29-$0.42
Deputy of Detention $2.08$2.02$2.20$2.56$0.06-$0.48
 
Commentary
Allegiance saw a bit of growth this week, with Kaya, Orzhov Usurper leading the charge. Kaya has begun seeing play in Modern's Esper, largely as a way to answer Arclight Phoenix. The Standard meta drives most of the prices we look at, but Modern play can push things to a whole new level. She's already begun to level out, but with the omnipresent feel of Pheonix, as well the hate she adds for Dredge, she could spike further if she spreads to other decks.
Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.15$2.20$2.27$2.26-$0.05-$0.11
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.39$3.17$3.17$3.37$0.22$0.02
Total Set Value: $172.19$178.19$186.01$186.19-$6.00-$14.00
Booster Box EV: $88.97$90.51$98.18$99.61-$1.54-$10.64
Hit Over Miss: 215%223%223%221%-8%-6.14%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $16.53$21.00$23.04$23.72-$4.47-$7.19
Experimental Frenzy $0.91$1.72$1.62$1.77-$0.81-$0.86
Runaway Steam-Kin $0.80$1.53$1.61$1.75-$0.73-$0.95
Divine Visitation $7.66$6.96$7.45$6.80$0.70$0.86
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $2.58$3.28$3.68$3.96-$0.70-$1.38
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $16.53$21.00$23.04$23.72-$4.47-$7.19
Steam Vents $11.22$11.25$11.62$11.59-$0.03-$0.37
Watery Grave $10.77$10.76$10.07$10.09$0.01$0.68
Assassin's Trophy $9.61$9.97$10.25$9.92-$0.36-$0.31
Divine Visitation $7.66$6.96$7.45$6.80$0.70$0.86
Sacred Foundry $6.71$6.64$6.66$6.43$0.07$0.28
Doom Whisperer $6.46$6.81$7.38$7.21-$0.35-$0.75
Overgrown Tomb $5.49$6.08$6.14$6.30-$0.59-$0.81
Chromatic Lantern $5.09$4.64$4.56$4.36$0.45$0.73
Temple Garden $5.05$5.09$5.09$5.17-$0.04-$0.12
Thief of Sanity $4.91$4.60$4.61$4.90$0.31$0.01
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.62$4.85$4.69$4.46-$0.23$0.16
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $4.37$4.55$4.50$4.24-$0.18$0.13
Risk Factor $3.99$3.80$4.29$4.13$0.19-$0.14
March of the Multitudes $3.53$3.51$3.50$3.35$0.02$0.18
Beast Whisperer $3.06$2.79$2.76$2.89$0.27$0.17
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $3.03$3.17$3.15$3.11-$0.14-$0.08
Expansion // Explosion $2.88$2.70$2.61$2.63$0.18$0.25
Thousand-Year Storm $2.83$2.74$2.81$2.90$0.09-$0.07
Legion Warboss $2.72$2.31$2.35$2.41$0.41$0.31
Nullhide Ferox $2.71$3.05$3.30$3.38-$0.34-$0.67
Knight of Autumn $2.67$2.88$3.17$3.22-$0.21-$0.55
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $2.58$3.28$3.68$3.96-$0.70-$1.38
Midnight Reaper $2.49$2.56$2.74$2.79-$0.07-$0.30
Trostani Discordant $2.20$1.89$2.20$2.15$0.31$0.05
 
Commentary
Speaking of the pheonix, Arclight Phoenix takes a huge dip this week. While Kaya would undoubtedly want to take credit here, this is more indicative of a meta shift. As Pheonix took hold of more and more of the meta, the opposing decks have all slowly adapted to compete. Kaya, while not the direct cause, is a good example of that adaptation. Pheonix still currently represents around 12% of the Modern meta, but this price drop may be foretelling of a coming decline.
Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.36$1.42$1.37$1.38-$0.06-$0.02
Buy-A-Box Promo: $17.62$17.58$17.58$17.67$0.04-$0.05
Total Set Value: $151.99$157.61$152.31$152.55-$5.62-$0.56
Booster Box EV: $57.56$60.73$58.95$58.70-$3.17-$1.14
Hit Over Miss: 269%269%284%285%-0.06%-16.09%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $16.85$19.07$21.01$20.73-$2.22-$3.88
Banefire $1.35$3.11$3.04$3.28-$1.76-$1.93
Liliana, Untouched by Death $10.05$11.37$4.07$4.05-$1.32$6.00
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $17.73$16.48$16.25$16.36$1.25$1.37
Scapeshift $7.69$6.91$6.83$6.91$0.78$0.78
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $17.73$16.48$16.25$16.36$1.25$1.37
Vivien Reid $16.85$19.07$21.01$20.73-$2.22-$3.88
Crucible of Worlds $13.85$13.72$13.15$12.94$0.13$0.91
Liliana, Untouched by Death $10.05$11.37$4.07$4.05-$1.32$6.00
Resplendent Angel $9.53$9.29$9.51$10.87$0.24-$1.34
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $9.13$9.63$10.69$9.84-$0.50-$0.71
Scapeshift $7.69$6.91$6.83$6.91$0.78$0.78
Sarkhan, Fireblood $6.98$7.09$7.16$7.62-$0.11-$0.64
Arcades, the Strategist $6.59$7.04$7.12$6.92-$0.45-$0.33
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.85$5.53$5.48$5.11$0.32$0.74
Omniscience $5.67$5.74$5.78$5.55-$0.07$0.12
Death Baron $3.19$2.59$1.92$1.97$0.60$1.22
Cleansing Nova $2.68$3.21$3.58$3.68-$0.53-$1.00
Elvish Clancaller $2.52$2.72$2.60$2.80-$0.20-$0.28
Reliquary Tower $2.22$1.98$2.09$1.99$0.24$0.23
 
Commentary
Bolas and Scapeshift are Core 2019's big winners this week. While Bolas may have more impressive numbers, I think Scapeshift is the card to watch. When SolaryHS previewed Evolution Sage, Scapeshift's inclusion in Core 2019 instantly went from a Modern reprint seller to a legitimate card in Standard. These cards curve into eachother, and proliferating several times off a single play will easily become a huge deal in the new Standard. War brings with it a plethora of Planeswalkers, and being able to instantly ultimate whichever you have will become a game winning play. Pick up an extra playset of Scapeshift; you'll think me later.
Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.67$1.82$1.76$1.79-$0.14-$0.12
Buy-A-Box Promo: $2.22$2.12$2.12$2.11$0.10$0.11
Total Set Value: $167.18$181.11$176.65$178.76-$13.93-$11.58
Booster Box EV: $68.42$78.34$76.02$76.71-$9.91-$8.29
Hit Over Miss: 363%339%338%353%24.46%9.74%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
History of Benalia $4.64$5.98$5.94$6.39-$1.34-$1.75
Lyra Dawnbringer $9.24$10.47$10.86$10.33-$1.23-$1.09
Woodland Cemetery $2.29$3.43$3.74$3.62-$1.14-$1.33
Goblin Chainwhirler $1.90$3.00$2.86$3.03-$1.10-$1.13
Sulfur Falls $5.79$6.80$6.63$7.13-$1.01-$1.34
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $36.08$36.90$36.99$38.52-$0.82-$2.44
Karn, Scion of Urza $16.65$17.43$16.96$16.49-$0.78$0.16
Mox Amber $16.17$15.83$14.72$15.47$0.34$0.70
Lyra Dawnbringer $9.24$10.47$10.86$10.33-$1.23-$1.09
Sulfur Falls $5.79$6.80$6.63$7.13-$1.01-$1.34
Hinterland Harbor $5.21$5.93$5.09$6.32-$0.72-$1.11
Isolated Chapel $4.84$5.02$4.77$5.14-$0.18-$0.30
History of Benalia $4.64$5.98$5.94$6.39-$1.34-$1.75
Helm of the Host $4.22$3.94$3.65$3.78$0.28$0.44
Clifftop Retreat $3.65$3.39$3.44$3.52$0.26$0.13
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.44$3.58$3.47$3.51-$0.14-$0.07
Gilded Lotus $3.35$3.08$3.05$2.70$0.27$0.65
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.82$2.89$3.06$2.88-$0.07-$0.06
Oath of Teferi $2.48$3.01$2.85$3.03-$0.53-$0.55
Woodland Cemetery $2.29$3.43$3.74$3.62-$1.14-$1.33
 
Commentary
This week was definitely not kind to Dominaria, as all of the top movement is downward. The total set value plumetted, box value sank, and box variance shot up. I've made my no secret of my underdog hope for Dominaria's resurrection, but this week makes it clear that it's a fools hope. There may very well be some more individual card growth coming, but my hopes are dashed for the set overall. There are two strong cards to watch, though. Dominaria's Karn has some major colorless support coming with War's Karn and Ugin, giving him possibly another push towards to the top. Mox Amber also has more potential coming, as the field gets flooded with Planeswalker that can fill out a deck enough to ensure it works.
Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.87$1.93$1.95$1.95-$0.06-$0.08
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.19$0.15$0.15$0.13$0.04$0.06
Total Set Value: $166.67$172.51$174.68$175.72-$5.84-$9.05
Booster Box EV: $82.52$85.89$86.74$86.49-$3.37-$3.97
Hit Over Miss: 247%247%247%254%-0.77%-7.32%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $11.47$14.37$14.18$14.38-$2.90-$2.91
Jadelight Ranger $2.90$3.91$4.41$4.65-$1.01-$1.75
Hadana's Climb $2.78$3.48$3.62$3.92-$0.70-$1.14
Zacama, Primal Calamity $9.19$8.54$9.31$8.81$0.65$0.38
The Immortal Sun $28.15$27.56$27.30$28.70$0.59-$0.55
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
The Immortal Sun $28.15$27.56$27.30$28.70$0.59-$0.55
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $12.18$12.50$13.55$13.83-$0.32-$1.65
Rekindling Phoenix $11.47$14.37$14.18$14.38-$2.90-$2.91
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $9.31$8.96$9.58$10.26$0.35-$0.95
Zacama, Primal Calamity $9.19$8.54$9.31$8.81$0.65$0.38
Twilight Prophet $7.17$7.09$7.22$6.98$0.08$0.19
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $6.78$7.27$7.29$7.10-$0.49-$0.32
Wayward Swordtooth $5.44$5.32$5.14$5.36$0.12$0.08
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.55$4.47$4.46$4.26$0.08$0.29
Etali, Primal Storm $4.30$4.55$4.36$4.04-$0.25$0.26
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $3.89$3.84$3.98$3.85$0.05$0.04
Azor's Gateway $3.27$3.33$3.44$3.65-$0.06-$0.38
Journey to Eternity $3.16$3.13$3.25$3.32$0.03-$0.16
Polyraptor $3.03$3.02$2.91$2.96$0.01$0.07
Jadelight Ranger $2.90$3.91$4.41$4.65-$1.01-$1.75
Hadana's Climb $2.78$3.48$3.62$3.92-$0.70-$1.14
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.71$2.87$2.92$2.53-$0.16$0.18
Tendershoot Dryad $2.65$2.91$3.10$3.00-$0.26-$0.35
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.61$2.72$2.64$2.55-$0.11$0.06
Curious Obsession $2.18$2.40$2.65$2.55-$0.22-$0.37
 
Commentary
Rivals is not having a good month. The Ixalan block had dominated Standard for some time, but as we move further away, the meta has shifted more and more to include the newer cards. It's still a great set, but the days of flipping boxes as fast as you can have come and gone. With War coming, The Immortal Sun will most likely remain king of the set for the rest of its life in Standard.
Set Overview
Metric 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.71$1.78$1.75$1.81-$0.07-$0.10
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.20$0.24$0.24$0.26-$0.04-$0.06
Total Set Value: $160.97$169.70$168.21$174.17-$8.73-$13.20
Booster Box EV: $76.97$84.95$85.37$89.36-$7.99-$12.39
Hit Over Miss: 208%205%203%207%2.52%1.29%
Top 5 Movers
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Legion's Landing $2.81$4.11$4.08$4.18-$1.30-$1.37
Carnage Tyrant $12.23$13.28$13.16$14.70-$1.05-$2.47
Chart a Course $0.71$1.68$1.97$2.20-$0.97-$1.49
Vraska, Relic Seeker $2.73$3.52$4.02$3.89-$0.79-$1.16
Entrancing Melody $2.30$3.09$3.25$3.49-$0.79-$1.19
Top Cards
Card 04/11 04/04 03/28 03/21 ± Week ± Month
Search for Azcanta $14.40$14.45$13.50$14.58-$0.05-$0.18
Carnage Tyrant $12.23$13.28$13.16$14.70-$1.05-$2.47
Vraska's Contempt $8.18$7.87$7.55$8.19$0.31-$0.01
Drowned Catacomb $6.32$6.43$6.42$6.37-$0.11-$0.05
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.07$6.40$5.48$6.01-$0.33$0.06
Glacial Fortress $5.70$5.34$5.97$5.70$0.36$0.00
Treasure Map $5.58$5.52$4.93$5.78$0.06-$0.20
Hostage Taker $4.82$5.04$5.12$5.41-$0.22-$0.59
Star of Extinction $4.46$4.79$4.48$4.86-$0.33-$0.40
Dragonskull Summit $4.34$4.35$4.43$4.58-$0.01-$0.24
Vanquisher's Banner $4.30$4.44$4.44$4.44-$0.14-$0.14
Rootbound Crag $3.99$4.11$3.84$3.94-$0.12$0.05
Settle the Wreckage $3.84$3.71$4.04$4.45$0.13-$0.61
Primal Amulet $3.78$3.72$3.84$3.60$0.06$0.18
Sunpetal Grove $3.40$3.57$3.90$3.75-$0.17-$0.35
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $3.05$3.23$3.07$3.19-$0.18-$0.14
Siren Stormtamer $2.82$2.80$2.93$2.85$0.02-$0.03
Legion's Landing $2.81$4.11$4.08$4.18-$1.30-$1.37
Sorcerous Spyglass $2.74$2.62$2.22$2.03$0.12$0.71
Vraska, Relic Seeker $2.73$3.52$4.02$3.89-$0.79-$1.16
Field of Ruin $2.68$2.54$2.74$2.65$0.14$0.03
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.61$2.48$2.07$2.00$0.13$0.61
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.35$2.18$2.35$2.48$0.17-$0.13
Entrancing Melody $2.30$3.09$3.25$3.49-$0.79-$1.19
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.21$2.25$2.31$2.21-$0.04$0.00
Thaumatic Compass $2.15$2.24$2.27$2.31-$0.09-$0.16
Revel in Riches $2.02$2.23$2.07$2.19-$0.21-$0.17
 
Commentary
Even the mighty eventually fall. Rotation is still half a year away, but our current decline is on the level of a set that's about to rotate. Ixalan still boasts the most cards with real value, and easily out performs Core 2019 and Dominaria, but the writing is on the wall. While I don't think we'll continue this week's massive plummet, the set is on the road to the past.

Parting Thoughts...

We're at that same moment we get to about every four months, when the market is watching the new set's previews - ready to pounce on the affected cards with fury. The Immortal Sun jumped $15, doubling its price in the matter of days. Liliana, Untouched by Death tripled her price last week. Which card will be next? Whatever it is, watching the previews can be a lot of fun - but it's also a strong oppurtunity to make money. You have to act quick, and know that you're gambling, but there's money to be made.

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