Magic Market Index for March 15th, 2019

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.08$2.13$2.31$2.28-$0.05-$0.20
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.79$4.72$5.01$4.55-$0.93-$0.76
Total Set Value: $182.72$187.85$204.56$202.36-$5.13-$19.64
Booster Box EV: $91.72$93.70$103.21$100.72-$1.98-$9.01
Hit Over Miss: 234%237%234%237%-3.95%-3.39%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $26.25$27.79$31.43$32.42-$1.54-$6.17
Bedevil $3.68$2.39$2.89$2.61$1.29$1.07
Prime Speaker Vannifar $7.27$8.01$8.47$8.74-$0.74-$1.47
Spawn of Mayhem $4.85$5.49$5.65$6.29-$0.64-$1.44
Godless Shrine $8.17$8.61$8.90$8.33-$0.44-$0.16
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $26.25$27.79$31.43$32.42-$1.54-$6.17
Breeding Pool $10.97$10.87$10.98$10.67$0.10$0.30
Blood Crypt $8.60$8.59$8.95$8.38$0.01$0.22
Seraph of the Scales $8.18$8.53$9.22$9.85-$0.35-$1.67
Godless Shrine $8.17$8.61$8.90$8.33-$0.44-$0.16
Stomping Ground $8.14$8.57$8.34$8.16-$0.43-$0.02
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $7.30$7.53$7.44$4.27-$0.23$3.03
Prime Speaker Vannifar $7.27$8.01$8.47$8.74-$0.74-$1.47
Hallowed Fountain $7.24$7.35$7.51$7.44-$0.11-$0.20
Biogenic Ooze $6.62$6.77$6.98$6.98-$0.15-$0.36
Spawn of Mayhem $4.85$5.49$5.65$6.29-$0.64-$1.44
Dovin, Grand Arbiter $4.57$4.89$5.15$5.93-$0.32-$1.36
Domri, Chaos Bringer $4.14$4.55$4.72$5.11-$0.41-$0.97
Skarrgan Hellkite $3.96$3.80$4.73$5.61$0.16-$1.65
Smothering Tithe $3.89$3.73$3.89$3.81$0.16$0.08
Bedevil $3.68$2.39$2.89$2.61$1.29$1.07
Angel of Grace $3.20$3.58$3.85$4.13-$0.38-$0.93
Incubation Druid $3.15$3.42$3.76$3.71-$0.27-$0.56
Pteramander $2.49$2.82$3.17$2.51-$0.33-$0.02
Deputy of Detention $2.47$2.55$2.63$2.86-$0.08-$0.39
Growth-Chamber Guardian $2.32$2.61$2.98$3.10-$0.29-$0.78
Judith, the Scourge Diva $2.32$2.40$2.80$2.89-$0.08-$0.57
Kaya's Wrath $2.13$2.21$2.55$2.56-$0.08-$0.43
Electrodominance $2.04$2.13$2.52$2.65-$0.09-$0.61
 
Commentary
Hydroid Krasis remains king, as Allegiance falls across the board again. Even after two weeks of major decline, we're still in profitable range. A really bad box still nets over $50 and great boxes top out over $120. The set maintains a stable profit, prime for box flipping. One key area to not overlook is the value in Allegiance's uncommons. Light Up the Stage, Pteramander, Rhythm of the Wild, and Wilderness Reclamation are all highly sought after uncommons that add over $8 in value to every box.
Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.30$2.36$2.36$2.34-$0.06-$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.73$3.62$3.23$4.01$0.11-$0.28
Total Set Value: $191.00$196.48$194.98$193.87-$5.48-$2.87
Booster Box EV: $101.91$104.46$104.59$103.46-$2.54-$1.55
Hit Over Miss: 229%224%220%217%4.26%11.13%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $27.31$26.56$24.12$23.14$0.75$4.17
Doom Whisperer $7.43$8.11$8.23$8.74-$0.68-$1.31
Watery Grave $10.14$9.59$10.34$9.42$0.55$0.72
Lava Coil $2.20$2.64$2.77$2.90-$0.44-$0.70
Beast Whisperer $2.66$3.05$2.92$2.86-$0.39-$0.20
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $27.31$26.56$24.12$23.14$0.75$4.17
Steam Vents $11.42$11.52$11.50$10.82-$0.10$0.60
Watery Grave $10.14$9.59$10.34$9.42$0.55$0.72
Assassin's Trophy $9.43$9.77$9.97$10.12-$0.34-$0.69
Divine Visitation $8.08$8.14$7.75$7.86-$0.06$0.22
Doom Whisperer $7.43$8.11$8.23$8.74-$0.68-$1.31
Sacred Foundry $6.40$6.74$6.75$6.77-$0.34-$0.37
Overgrown Tomb $6.32$6.17$6.44$6.42$0.15-$0.10
Temple Garden $5.13$5.12$5.10$4.99$0.01$0.14
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $4.63$4.85$5.15$5.11-$0.22-$0.48
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $4.55$4.82$4.68$4.70-$0.27-$0.15
Thief of Sanity $4.53$4.58$4.37$4.52-$0.05$0.01
Risk Factor $4.37$4.53$4.58$4.53-$0.16-$0.16
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.07$4.09$4.04$3.99-$0.02$0.08
Chromatic Lantern $4.03$3.97$3.91$3.69$0.06$0.34
Nullhide Ferox $3.68$3.87$3.91$4.35-$0.19-$0.67
March of the Multitudes $3.42$3.50$3.59$3.57-$0.08-$0.15
Knight of Autumn $3.19$3.21$3.25$3.24-$0.02-$0.05
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $3.04$3.38$3.45$3.46-$0.34-$0.42
Midnight Reaper $2.87$3.12$3.34$2.99-$0.25-$0.12
Thousand-Year Storm $2.87$2.89$2.85$2.82-$0.02$0.05
Beast Whisperer $2.66$3.05$2.92$2.86-$0.39-$0.20
Expansion // Explosion $2.47$2.23$2.32$2.39$0.24$0.08
Lava Coil $2.20$2.64$2.77$2.90-$0.44-$0.70
Legion Warboss $2.19$2.37$2.11$2.08-$0.18$0.11
 
Commentary
Guilds is in an even better spot for box flipping, with a higher return rate and even lower hit-over-miss than its successor. And much like Allegiance, one of the key areas that pushes Guilds clearly into the profitable range is its uncommon value. Guilds has ten high selling uncommons that add a whopping $12 to an average box. Lava Coil, Discovery // Dispersal, and Circuitous Route are the leaders of this pack, with each having more value than most of the set's rares.
Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.38$1.41$1.43$1.42-$0.03-$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $17.83$17.99$19.66$20.08-$0.16-$2.25
Total Set Value: $153.45$154.32$157.35$154.74-$0.87-$1.29
Booster Box EV: $57.57$59.48$59.71$58.39-$1.92-$0.83
Hit Over Miss: 300%289%286%287%11.35%12.71%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $22.59$21.58$22.11$21.15$1.01$1.44
Sarkhan, Fireblood $7.83$7.50$7.51$7.79$0.33$0.04
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.68$3.36$3.13$3.17$0.32$0.51
Crucible of Worlds $12.76$12.49$12.28$12.25$0.27$0.51
Banefire $3.63$3.89$3.79$4.36-$0.26-$0.73
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $22.59$21.58$22.11$21.15$1.01$1.44
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $16.52$16.36$16.80$17.29$0.16-$0.77
Crucible of Worlds $12.76$12.49$12.28$12.25$0.27$0.51
Resplendent Angel $11.17$11.16$11.13$10.25$0.01$0.92
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $9.84$9.99$10.72$10.18-$0.15-$0.34
Sarkhan, Fireblood $7.83$7.50$7.51$7.79$0.33$0.04
Arcades, the Strategist $6.77$6.88$7.55$7.44-$0.11-$0.67
Scapeshift $6.71$6.54$6.90$6.72$0.17-$0.01
Omniscience $5.51$5.64$5.65$5.36-$0.13$0.15
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.11$5.17$5.47$5.24-$0.06-$0.13
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.68$3.36$3.13$3.17$0.32$0.51
Banefire $3.63$3.89$3.79$4.36-$0.26-$0.73
Cleansing Nova $3.58$3.71$3.70$3.79-$0.13-$0.21
Elvish Clancaller $2.68$2.73$2.83$2.64-$0.05$0.04
 
Commentary
Very little hope remains for Core 2019. A box that contains all of the best rares and mythics barely breaks even, and the losses for most boxes are far too large to gamble on. We'd need a minor miracle to turn things around.
Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.90$1.87$1.90$1.87$0.03$0.03
Buy-A-Box Promo: $2.07$1.89$1.77$1.81$0.18$0.26
Total Set Value: $187.49$186.96$189.11$188.05$0.53-$0.56
Booster Box EV: $81.53$82.17$83.64$82.18-$0.64-$0.65
Hit Over Miss: 349%349%343%370%-0.06%-21.35%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $38.31$41.74$41.36$44.67-$3.43-$6.36
Oath of Teferi $1.89$0.59$0.50$0.48$1.30$1.41
Sulfur Falls $9.48$8.33$9.08$9.13$1.15$0.35
Mox Amber $14.98$13.97$10.34$7.91$1.01$7.07
Hinterland Harbor $6.55$5.84$6.21$6.53$0.71$0.02
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $38.31$41.74$41.36$44.67-$3.43-$6.36
Karn, Scion of Urza $18.17$17.91$18.77$18.84$0.26-$0.67
Mox Amber $14.98$13.97$10.34$7.91$1.01$7.07
Lyra Dawnbringer $11.25$10.97$11.15$11.80$0.28-$0.55
Sulfur Falls $9.48$8.33$9.08$9.13$1.15$0.35
History of Benalia $9.02$9.07$10.97$10.74-$0.05-$1.72
Hinterland Harbor $6.55$5.84$6.21$6.53$0.71$0.02
Isolated Chapel $5.38$4.98$5.52$4.88$0.40$0.50
Woodland Cemetery $4.31$3.99$4.62$4.67$0.32-$0.36
Goblin Chainwhirler $3.98$4.11$4.04$3.82-$0.13$0.16
Clifftop Retreat $3.91$4.26$4.42$4.70-$0.35-$0.79
Helm of the Host $3.74$3.49$3.47$3.40$0.25$0.34
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.37$3.59$3.68$3.80-$0.22-$0.43
Tempest Djinn $3.11$3.81$3.60$1.67-$0.70$1.44
Gilded Lotus $2.86$2.70$2.68$2.54$0.16$0.32
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.82$2.78$2.71$2.86$0.04-$0.04
 
Commentary
Dominaria continues to teeter on the brink of profit and opportunity. Expected value has remained just above $80 for some time, but the hit-over-miss continues to fall, offering more and more stability in the set. Unlike Core 2019, there remains a chance for redemption here. All it needs is one good boon to push it over the hump and enter back into the realm of investment.
Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.01$1.93$1.99$1.97$0.08$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.13$0.13$0.13$0.14$0.00-$0.01
Total Set Value: $181.22$170.94$175.20$173.40$10.28$7.82
Booster Box EV: $91.96$89.39$92.01$90.37$2.57$1.60
Hit Over Miss: 256%240%242%244%16.02%11.42%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
The Immortal Sun $24.87$14.83$15.56$15.05$10.04$9.82
Jadelight Ranger $6.47$7.45$7.80$8.34-$0.98-$1.87
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $12.06$11.24$11.80$11.47$0.82$0.59
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.71$14.98$15.82$14.93-$0.27-$0.22
Journey to Eternity $3.51$3.25$3.47$3.60$0.26-$0.09
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
The Immortal Sun $24.87$14.83$15.56$15.05$10.04$9.82
Rekindling Phoenix $18.32$18.40$18.75$19.23-$0.08-$0.91
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.71$14.98$15.82$14.93-$0.27-$0.22
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $12.06$11.24$11.80$11.47$0.82$0.59
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.81$8.72$8.69$8.74$0.09$0.07
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $7.18$6.99$6.75$6.91$0.19$0.27
Twilight Prophet $6.98$6.96$6.86$6.95$0.02$0.03
Jadelight Ranger $6.47$7.45$7.80$8.34-$0.98-$1.87
Wayward Swordtooth $5.20$4.96$4.78$4.83$0.24$0.37
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.38$4.26$4.40$4.34$0.12$0.04
Etali, Primal Storm $4.14$3.96$3.86$3.75$0.18$0.39
Hadana's Climb $4.03$4.18$5.10$4.98-$0.15-$0.95
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $3.99$3.83$4.04$3.94$0.16$0.05
Journey to Eternity $3.51$3.25$3.47$3.60$0.26-$0.09
Azor's Gateway $3.45$3.30$3.56$3.64$0.15-$0.19
Tendershoot Dryad $2.97$2.96$2.93$2.88$0.01$0.09
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.88$2.83$2.73$2.47$0.05$0.41
Polyraptor $2.86$2.86$2.55$2.60$0.00$0.26
Curious Obsession $2.79$2.69$2.40$2.40$0.10$0.39
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.70$2.60$2.61$2.41$0.10$0.29
 
Commentary
What happens when you announce a new set with 36 planeswalkers, even including one in every pack? The Immortal Sun skyrockets to one of the highest priced cards in Standard. We often look at cards that can move and make profit in a singular investment, but sometimes these changes come overnight. Once the announcement hit, you had half a day to make the decision to buy up The Immortal Sun before it began its massive ascent. This is where speculation and perhaps a bit of gambling can pay off. There's always risk, so never invest in speculation what you can't afford to lose.
Set Overview
Metric 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.90$1.93$2.01$1.98-$0.03-$0.08
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.22$0.19$0.18$0.20$0.03$0.02
Total Set Value: $183.86$187.41$196.90$195.18-$3.55-$11.32
Booster Box EV: $96.22$97.81$103.22$101.97-$1.59-$5.75
Hit Over Miss: 211%217%221%234%-5.56%-23.27%
Top 5 Movers
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $17.53$18.88$21.83$24.02-$1.35-$6.49
Star of Extinction $5.78$6.47$7.75$7.60-$0.69-$1.82
Revel in Riches $2.04$2.68$2.22$2.00-$0.64$0.04
Treasure Map $6.57$7.21$8.23$8.73-$0.64-$2.16
Sorcerous Spyglass $1.83$1.27$1.46$1.35$0.56$0.48
Top Cards
Card 03/14 03/07 02/28 02/21 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $17.53$18.88$21.83$24.02-$1.35-$6.49
Search for Azcanta $14.74$14.99$13.71$14.47-$0.25$0.27
Vraska's Contempt $8.40$8.39$8.70$9.03$0.01-$0.63
Legion's Landing $6.61$6.69$6.82$6.30-$0.08$0.31
Treasure Map $6.57$7.21$8.23$8.73-$0.64-$2.16
Drowned Catacomb $6.42$6.28$6.41$5.96$0.14$0.46
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.09$6.12$6.03$5.83-$0.03$0.26
Star of Extinction $5.78$6.47$7.75$7.60-$0.69-$1.82
Glacial Fortress $5.58$5.89$6.33$6.08-$0.31-$0.50
Settle the Wreckage $4.99$4.68$4.94$5.38$0.31-$0.39
Hostage Taker $4.80$4.88$5.19$3.68-$0.08$1.12
Vanquisher's Banner $4.47$4.35$4.63$4.47$0.12$0.00
Dragonskull Summit $4.43$4.10$4.65$4.75$0.33-$0.32
Vraska, Relic Seeker $4.08$4.35$4.91$5.10-$0.27-$1.02
Entrancing Melody $4.07$4.29$4.93$1.51-$0.22$2.56
Sunpetal Grove $4.00$4.19$4.40$4.46-$0.19-$0.46
Rootbound Crag $3.97$4.09$3.83$3.64-$0.12$0.33
Primal Amulet $3.68$3.61$3.27$3.80$0.07-$0.12
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $3.10$2.92$2.93$3.00$0.18$0.10
Siren Stormtamer $2.98$3.15$3.08$2.55-$0.17$0.43
Field of Ruin $2.78$2.52$2.70$2.59$0.26$0.19
Chart a Course $2.56$2.33$2.92$2.87$0.23-$0.31
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.45$2.25$2.25$2.34$0.20$0.11
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.31$2.16$2.53$2.57$0.15-$0.26
Thaumatic Compass $2.06$1.89$2.12$2.16$0.17-$0.10
Revel in Riches $2.04$2.68$2.22$2.00-$0.64$0.04
 
Commentary
Although we see a second week of decline, the unrelenting Ixalan will not be defeated. After a year and a half, box returns still exceed cost and the hit-over-miss is the smallest in Standard. If this seems like you've heard it before, it's because its the recurring theme of the set. There's very little trend or per-card tendency; just more of the same: set profit and endurance.

Parting Thoughts...

Four of the six sets remain profitable, reflecting a very healthy market. It's prime time for box flipping and money making, and we're heading for a new preview season ripe with excitement. Although War of the Spark hasn't had a single card previewed, it's already made a strong impact with The Immortal Sun, and more is on its way. Excitement brings change, and change brings opportunity.

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