Magic Market Index for Feb 8th, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/27 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.47$2.50$2.79$0.00-$0.04-$0.28
Buy-A-Box Promo: $4.49$4.76$12.77$0.00-$0.27-$8.01
Total Set Value: $220.21$223.49$245.70$0.00-$3.28-$22.21
Booster Box EV: $106.16$107.64$119.18$0.00-$1.48-$11.54
Hit Over Miss: 234%213%196%0%20.86%38.14%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/08 01/31 01/24 01/27 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $34.82$28.82$28.64$6.00$6.18
Seraph of the Scales $10.56$8.24$7.64$2.32$2.92
Spawn of Mayhem $8.79$10.65$11.04-$1.86-$2.25
Angel of Grace $5.40$7.18$9.04-$1.78-$3.64
Domri, Chaos Bringer $6.99$8.69$11.36-$1.70-$4.37
Top Cards
Card 02/08 01/31 01/24 01/27 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $34.82$28.82$28.64$6.00$6.18
Prime Speaker Vannifar $11.88$12.34$11.97-$0.46-$0.09
Seraph of the Scales $10.56$8.24$7.64$2.32$2.92
Breeding Pool $10.04$9.23$8.25$0.81$1.79
Stomping Ground $8.84$7.59$8.16$1.25$0.68
Spawn of Mayhem $8.79$10.65$11.04-$1.86-$2.25
Blood Crypt $8.45$8.07$8.20$0.38$0.25
Godless Shrine $8.18$7.23$6.82$0.95$1.36
Biogenic Ooze $7.85$8.70$10.11-$0.85-$2.26
Hallowed Fountain $7.29$6.50$6.56$0.79$0.73
Domri, Chaos Bringer $6.99$8.69$11.36-$1.70-$4.37
Skarrgan Hellkite $6.77$6.91$9.20-$0.14-$2.43
Dovin, Grand Arbiter $6.56$6.91$6.83-$0.35-$0.27
Angel of Grace $5.40$7.18$9.04-$1.78-$3.64
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $4.36$4.59$5.41-$0.23-$1.05
Incubation Druid $3.99$3.96$4.06$0.03-$0.07
Smothering Tithe $3.88$3.99$4.08-$0.11-$0.20
Growth-Chamber Guardian $3.79$4.70$6.18-$0.91-$2.39
Bedevil $3.30$3.82$4.75-$0.52-$1.45
Judith, the Scourge Diva $3.17$4.45$6.86-$1.28-$3.69
Electrodominance $3.03$3.38$4.94-$0.35-$1.91
Ravager Wurm $2.64$3.28$3.76-$0.64-$1.12
Kaya's Wrath $2.44$2.64$3.35-$0.20-$0.91
Hero of Precinct One $2.33$2.28$2.64$0.05-$0.31
Deputy of Detention $2.16$2.02$1.72$0.14$0.44
Plaza of Harmony $2.09$0.87$0.56$1.22$1.53
Gruul Spellbreaker $2.07$2.52$3.38-$0.45-$1.31
Light Up the Stage $2.00$1.88$1.62$0.12$0.38
 
Commentary
Allegiance's third week sees only a minor drop, which bodes very well for the set. Sets normally shed their prerelease inflation quickly, plunging towards box cost in the first few weeks. Not only are we getting a larger window of opportunity here, but sets that take longer to fall generally fair better in the months or years to come.
Hydroid Krasis climbs further, potentially even looking to supplant Teferi as the top card in Standard with its current track. Seraph of the Scales is the other big mover this week, having a larger percentage change than even the Hydroid. She doesn't have the focal results that Hydroid does, but she is featured in Orzhov Angels, Abzan Tokens, and various Midrange builds. Being a marquee staple of winning decks is great, but being an overall strong card with multiple homescan also lead to great things.
Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.30$2.21$2.21$2.22$0.09$0.00
Buy-A-Box Promo: $4.02$3.87$4.10$4.33$0.15-$0.23
Total Set Value: $192.90$183.83$184.35$184.29$9.07-$0.52
Booster Box EV: $103.86$96.57$95.47$94.75$7.28$1.11
Hit Over Miss: 219%220%230%230%-0.7%-10.44%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Circuitous Route $2.25$0.57$0.31$0.26$1.68$1.99
Arclight Phoenix $22.05$20.53$23.46$23.34$1.52-$1.29
Thief of Sanity $3.40$2.24$1.84$1.76$1.16$1.64
Divine Visitation $7.98$7.19$7.67$7.35$0.79$0.63
Midnight Reaper $3.19$2.55$1.70$1.25$0.64$1.94
Top Cards
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $22.05$20.53$23.46$23.34$1.52-$1.29
Steam Vents $11.15$10.78$10.91$10.93$0.37$0.22
Assassin's Trophy $10.61$10.64$10.80$10.94-$0.03-$0.33
Watery Grave $8.71$8.27$7.79$7.99$0.44$0.72
Doom Whisperer $8.47$8.97$10.11$10.48-$0.50-$2.01
Divine Visitation $7.98$7.19$7.67$7.35$0.79$0.63
Sacred Foundry $6.86$6.73$6.41$6.87$0.13-$0.01
Overgrown Tomb $6.03$6.14$6.11$6.04-$0.11-$0.01
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $5.50$5.36$5.65$5.34$0.14$0.16
Risk Factor $4.91$4.32$4.19$4.18$0.59$0.73
Temple Garden $4.91$4.80$4.94$4.89$0.11$0.02
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $4.67$4.87$5.02$5.00-$0.20-$0.33
Nullhide Ferox $4.10$4.21$4.23$4.99-$0.11-$0.89
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.06$4.14$4.20$4.40-$0.08-$0.34
March of the Multitudes $3.79$3.91$4.08$4.44-$0.12-$0.65
Chromatic Lantern $3.65$3.62$3.64$3.67$0.03-$0.02
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $3.58$3.69$3.91$4.07-$0.11-$0.49
Thief of Sanity $3.40$2.24$1.84$1.76$1.16$1.64
Midnight Reaper $3.19$2.55$1.70$1.25$0.64$1.94
Knight of Autumn $3.10$2.94$2.62$2.49$0.16$0.61
Lava Coil $2.98$2.50$2.00$1.72$0.48$1.26
Thousand-Year Storm $2.75$2.48$2.40$2.52$0.27$0.23
Pelt Collector $2.53$2.82$2.92$2.97-$0.29-$0.44
Trostani Discordant $2.26$2.25$1.88$2.06$0.01$0.20
Circuitous Route $2.25$0.57$0.31$0.26$1.68$1.99
Runaway Steam-Kin $2.17$1.91$2.05$1.89$0.26$0.28
Beast Whisperer $2.14$1.85$1.45$1.16$0.29$0.98
Experimental Frenzy $2.10$2.12$2.08$2.11-$0.02-$0.01
 
Commentary
Circuitous Route is definitely the card of the week. Route has held to the basic bin uncommon price since its release, and has now exploded into a rare-worthy price. Gates were featured during our last trip to Ravnica, but Allegiance has finally given them enough strong cards to legitimize them as a strategy. At the center of that strategy lies Route's ability to fetch them into play, fixing your mana, ramping you, and powering up all of your gates-matter cards at once. Whether it will continue to climb or drop back off our tables remains to be seen - but one thing's for sure: it won't see bin pricing again for a long time.
Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.46$1.48$1.50$1.49-$0.03-$0.03
Buy-A-Box Promo: $24.31$24.68$23.77$23.48-$0.37$0.83
Total Set Value: $158.92$159.94$160.96$159.63-$1.02-$0.71
Booster Box EV: $59.61$61.37$62.24$61.58-$1.76-$1.97
Hit Over Miss: 290%286%281%287%3.48%3.04%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $17.14$18.69$19.66$20.16-$1.55-$3.02
Sarkhan, Fireblood $8.97$10.13$10.90$10.72-$1.16-$1.75
Vivien Reid $21.33$20.25$19.05$19.31$1.08$2.02
Arcades, the Strategist $7.02$6.62$6.68$4.95$0.40$2.07
Scapeshift $6.88$6.54$6.54$6.62$0.34$0.26
Top Cards
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $21.33$20.25$19.05$19.31$1.08$2.02
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $17.14$18.69$19.66$20.16-$1.55-$3.02
Crucible of Worlds $12.41$12.39$12.64$12.70$0.02-$0.29
Resplendent Angel $12.08$12.19$12.62$12.78-$0.11-$0.70
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $11.36$11.13$11.74$11.29$0.23$0.07
Sarkhan, Fireblood $8.97$10.13$10.90$10.72-$1.16-$1.75
Arcades, the Strategist $7.02$6.62$6.68$4.95$0.40$2.07
Scapeshift $6.88$6.54$6.54$6.62$0.34$0.26
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.60$5.57$5.71$5.61$0.03-$0.01
Omniscience $5.43$5.34$5.38$5.33$0.09$0.10
Banefire $4.10$4.23$4.38$4.26-$0.13-$0.16
Cleansing Nova $4.08$4.00$3.93$4.22$0.08-$0.14
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.15$2.90$2.91$2.90$0.25$0.25
Elvish Clancaller $2.62$2.41$2.21$1.92$0.21$0.70
 
Commentary
Core 2019's box return drops below $60, which is not a demarcation line a set ever wants to cross. Almost comically, the set has remained fairly consistent - remaining steadily below 300% on hit-over-miss. Unfortunately, that consistency has only equated to a consistent loss. At this point, there's little hope the set will redeem itself. Even an eternal optimist like me has to admit that it would take something practically miraculous to turn Core 2019 around.
Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.85$1.83$1.86$1.84$0.02$0.01
Buy-A-Box Promo: $1.66$1.59$1.48$1.62$0.07$0.04
Total Set Value: $185.62$183.34$186.59$184.52$2.28$1.10
Booster Box EV: $81.34$80.08$80.08$79.54$1.27$1.80
Hit Over Miss: 374%372%386%392%2.49%-18.1%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $45.37$44.25$46.71$45.92$1.12-$0.55
Isolated Chapel $5.49$4.81$4.36$3.79$0.68$1.70
Karn, Scion of Urza $18.24$18.88$18.69$19.03-$0.64-$0.79
Goblin Chainwhirler $3.76$3.31$3.12$2.56$0.45$1.20
Sulfur Falls $8.80$8.37$9.39$9.98$0.43-$1.18
Top Cards
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $45.37$44.25$46.71$45.92$1.12-$0.55
Karn, Scion of Urza $18.24$18.88$18.69$19.03-$0.64-$0.79
Lyra Dawnbringer $11.93$11.57$11.28$11.18$0.36$0.75
History of Benalia $11.68$11.95$13.53$13.50-$0.27-$1.82
Sulfur Falls $8.80$8.37$9.39$9.98$0.43-$1.18
Mox Amber $6.58$6.36$6.46$6.42$0.22$0.16
Hinterland Harbor $5.79$5.82$4.89$4.26-$0.03$1.53
Isolated Chapel $5.49$4.81$4.36$3.79$0.68$1.70
Clifftop Retreat $4.84$4.76$4.96$5.06$0.08-$0.22
Woodland Cemetery $4.68$4.81$4.75$4.71-$0.13-$0.03
Goblin Chainwhirler $3.76$3.31$3.12$2.56$0.45$1.20
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.58$3.54$3.51$3.50$0.04$0.08
Helm of the Host $3.43$3.48$3.43$3.35-$0.05$0.08
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.78$2.76$2.73$2.81$0.02-$0.03
Gilded Lotus $2.58$2.64$2.51$2.54-$0.06$0.04
 
Commentary
A few Dominaria cards have maintained a steady, positive track this month, and the set's overall stats have reflected this. Dominaria might still be very top heavy, but we're now solidly over the $80 mark. The set's miss value - $35 - is still too low for the set to be a real consideration, but we're surprisingly not far off. Each week we seem to inch closer, and with each new milestone regained, my previously mentioned optimism gains hope anew.
Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.98$1.97$1.96$2.00$0.01-$0.02
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.10$0.12$0.12$0.21-$0.02-$0.11
Total Set Value: $172.84$171.50$170.27$172.85$1.34-$0.01
Booster Box EV: $85.63$86.91$84.36$85.45-$1.28$0.18
Hit Over Miss: 250%244%238%239%6.46%11.03%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.87$14.38$13.52$13.13$0.49$1.74
Hadana's Climb $6.24$5.81$5.32$5.49$0.43$0.75
Warkite Marauder $2.34$2.73$2.78$2.62-$0.39-$0.28
Twilight Prophet $7.21$6.89$7.09$7.22$0.32-$0.01
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $10.79$10.49$11.45$13.48$0.30-$2.69
Top Cards
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $19.35$19.24$19.06$19.73$0.11-$0.38
The Immortal Sun $15.83$15.82$15.95$16.03$0.01-$0.20
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.87$14.38$13.52$13.13$0.49$1.74
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $10.79$10.49$11.45$13.48$0.30-$2.69
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.52$8.63$8.75$8.04-$0.11$0.48
Jadelight Ranger $8.26$8.04$7.44$7.96$0.22$0.30
Twilight Prophet $7.21$6.89$7.09$7.22$0.32-$0.01
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $6.95$7.11$6.93$7.27-$0.16-$0.32
Hadana's Climb $6.24$5.81$5.32$5.49$0.43$0.75
Wayward Swordtooth $4.76$4.51$4.32$4.27$0.25$0.49
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.65$4.58$4.72$4.78$0.07-$0.13
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $4.08$4.12$4.26$4.27-$0.04-$0.19
Azor's Gateway $3.66$3.88$4.05$4.22-$0.22-$0.56
Etali, Primal Storm $3.48$3.40$3.37$3.29$0.08$0.19
Journey to Eternity $3.32$3.50$3.74$3.99-$0.18-$0.67
Tendershoot Dryad $2.81$2.62$2.94$2.96$0.19-$0.15
Polyraptor $2.56$2.55$2.44$2.59$0.01-$0.03
Warkite Marauder $2.34$2.73$2.78$2.62-$0.39-$0.28
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.32$2.21$2.08$2.25$0.11$0.07
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.26$2.17$2.24$2.16$0.09$0.10
 
Commentary
Rivals loses some of last weeks gains. Although our box returns are close to Dominaria, it is the consistency that sets it apart. Rivals' miss value is $46, and the $11 difference over Dominaria greatly reduces your risk. Actually getting a full-on miss box is very rare, but you will absolutely see duds that lie somewhere between the set's average and miss value. The smaller that margin, the less the risk.
All that said, Rivals' consistency has been lessening. If this trend continues, and especially if the box value dips lower, Rivals might finally drop out of profitable range.
Set Overview
Metric 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.00$1.93$1.91$1.92$0.08$0.08
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.23$0.21$0.20$0.20$0.02$0.03
Total Set Value: $199.24$191.31$189.80$189.20$7.93$10.04
Booster Box EV: $102.26$97.01$95.11$94.65$5.25$7.61
Hit Over Miss: 245%245%249%252%0.06%-6.73%
Top 5 Movers
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $28.30$26.66$27.94$26.62$1.64$1.68
Primal Amulet $3.81$3.01$2.79$2.59$0.80$1.22
Dragonskull Summit $3.87$4.66$4.13$3.81-$0.79$0.06
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.19$5.43$5.90$5.57$0.76$0.62
Search for Azcanta $14.51$13.85$13.92$13.88$0.66$0.63
Top Cards
Card 02/07 01/31 01/24 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $28.30$26.66$27.94$26.62$1.64$1.68
Search for Azcanta $14.51$13.85$13.92$13.88$0.66$0.63
Vraska's Contempt $9.33$8.70$8.18$9.18$0.63$0.15
Treasure Map $8.56$8.14$7.31$8.48$0.42$0.08
Star of Extinction $8.00$7.51$8.60$8.77$0.49-$0.77
Legion's Landing $6.42$6.18$6.57$6.68$0.24-$0.26
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.19$5.43$5.90$5.57$0.76$0.62
Drowned Catacomb $6.09$5.92$5.65$5.99$0.17$0.10
Vraska, Relic Seeker $5.64$6.08$6.38$6.48-$0.44-$0.84
Settle the Wreckage $5.64$5.47$5.61$5.47$0.17$0.17
Glacial Fortress $5.63$5.34$4.86$4.80$0.29$0.83
Sunpetal Grove $4.56$4.30$4.54$4.70$0.26-$0.14
Vanquisher's Banner $4.25$4.45$4.42$4.45-$0.20-$0.20
Rootbound Crag $4.01$3.83$3.46$3.56$0.18$0.45
Dragonskull Summit $3.87$4.66$4.13$3.81-$0.79$0.06
Primal Amulet $3.81$3.01$2.79$2.59$0.80$1.22
Hostage Taker $3.14$2.60$2.48$2.58$0.54$0.56
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $3.13$2.83$2.80$2.74$0.30$0.39
Chart a Course $2.67$2.44$2.17$2.16$0.23$0.51
Field of Ruin $2.66$2.55$2.61$2.45$0.11$0.21
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.57$2.55$2.63$2.54$0.02$0.03
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.35$2.34$2.36$2.39$0.01-$0.04
Siren Stormtamer $2.28$2.37$2.10$2.17-$0.09$0.11
Thaumatic Compass $2.17$2.26$2.28$2.18-$0.09-$0.01
 
Commentary
I'd say Ixalan was the Rocky Balboa of Magic, able to go the distance in any setting for any length of time, but there's a problem with that. Rocky took hits, got knocked down, and even lost the belt once. Ixalan hasn't. It's been consistently one of the top performing sets, and even today, continues to defiy the odds.
From now on, if I refer to set trends, please remember those trends are for every set not named Ixalan. Even if Ixalan's top card, Carnage Tyrant, was never again opened in a pack, the set would remain profitable. In fact, if every single mythic in the entire set simply up and disappeared tomorrow, we'd still average over $90 in box returns. I don't know any better way to illustrate just how amazing this set is.

Parting Thoughts...

As usual, a new set means a new meta. The changes have slow-rolled thus far, but this week saw quite an impact with the advent of Gates. Even existing decks have begun toying with the Gates engine, and it's potentially just the start. We may have had some high profile tournaments already, but that doesn't mean the meta is settled and Allegiance is out of tricks. The day is still young, and there remains a great deal to explore.

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